Written By: - Date published: 8:53 pm, October 23rd, 2008 - 44 comments
Categories: polls -
Tags: tns
Tonight’s 3 News poll has the election wide open with two weeks to go, putting the Left on 59 seats to the Right’s 60.
3 News says that with the Maori Party in the kingmaker position it’s too close to call, but when Colin Espiner is promising to print out his blog and eat it live on webcam if the Maori Party goes with National I’d say a broad left LPG+M coalition is the likely outcome based on these results.
The Greens will be happy with 8.8% and are in a good position to improve on it. For middle class voters who are regretting their flirtation with National but still hold a grudge against Labour, the Greens seem a natural choice.
New Zealand First still can’t be written off either. While the party wouldn’t make it back on these results, at 3.5% and climbing there’s a decent chance they’ll reach 5% – or that Winston will win Tauranga. That would almost certainly rule out a National-led government.
So, overall, good news for the Left. Roll on tomorrow’s Roy Morgan poll.
Facebook
Twitter
Scoopit!
Re: the class basis of the Green Party. I would definitely characterise it as a “petiti-bourgeois” party (i.e. representative of the small business class). Not to say that their supporters aren’t mostly working-class, of course (probably true of all NZ parties), but their organisational base in the petit-bourgeoisie is pretty solid. A friend of mine went to a national conference of theirs once and reported to me that every single person he met there was self-employed. He was quite surprised, but I wasn’t really; I think the Green ideology is quite a natural (good) reflection of the petit-bourgeois class.
I don’t say any of this in a derogatory way; I will be voting Green myself.
Tane, do they mention a) how many undecided? b) how many missed, actually attempts?
3 News didn’t – haven’t checked the TNS website, too much else to do.
In general media outlets try to pump up their polls as much as possible, so avoid mentioning any information that might cast doubt.
I seem to recall that 3 did mention the undecideds specifically on the preferred PM question, which was in the teens percentage wise (18% I think?) while Key and Clark were level pegging.
lampie – Anitfa, you fool. He’s not acutally that bad…. yet.
Julie
It would have been interesting (albeit a bit pointless) if they had included Obama and McCain in the question as to which leader you preferred out of Clark, Key, Obama, McCain just a gut feeling but I suspect neither of our two would have come out on top.
think I’ll stick with Goomer. that boy knows the score.
“lampie – Anitfa, you fool. He’s not acutally that bad . yet.”
HAHAHa (thumbs up)
“lampie – Anitfa, you fool. He?s not acutally that bad?. yet.”
HAHAHa (thumbs up)