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3News poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:22 pm, July 21st, 2013 - 160 comments
Categories: Politics - Tags:

Three News’ latest poll tonight doesn’t look good for Labour:

National up 2.4% to 49.5%

Labour down 2.1% to 30.1%

Greens no change at 12%

NZ First up 1.7% to 3.9%

160 comments on “3News poll”

  1. Socialist Paddy 1

    Given the quality of the current Labour leadership is anyone surprised?

    • Richard Christie 1.1

      Only in that the Nats have allegedly increased support.

      • Colonial Viper 1.1.1

        Even the Roy Morgan has National back around its 12 month highs, while Labour is very close to its 12 month lows.

  2. Colonial Viper 2

    Voters have decided that the Labour caucus is not fit to govern. Wait until National start applying election year pressure on to Labour.

    Key’s leadership is looking safer.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 2.1

      You mean like spending money in election year bribes

      • Mary 2.1.1

        Or announcing further attacks on citizens. Heck, the more assaults on the New Zealand public the greater the chances he’ll be this country’s longest serving PM. Don’t know quite how that’s supposed to work but it does.

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.1

          NZers like strong, firm leaders with smarts and charm.

          • GD 2.1.1.1.1

            In other words, it doesn’t matter if they are stupid as long as they have the qualities you’ve mentioned.

      • Wayne (a different one) 2.1.2

        No, no need, strong leadership and Policies are what the voter is looking for.

        Besides, if my memory serves me correctly, were not Student Loans and Working for Families Labour bribes on a grand scale which served them well to win two elections, when they looked odds on to lose?

  3. gobsmacked 3

    3 News also poll people on leaders performing well/badly.

    Shearer lost 10%. Core Labour voters are staying loyal to the party and expressing dissatisfaction with the leader. Only a fool or a payroll hack can fail to get the message.

    Caucus tomorrow in Napier, time for action.

    • Alanz 3.1

      So many ears and eyes cannot be wrong. Despite a corrupt, cronyistic and nasty National Government, people neither see nor hear a leader-in-waiting on the opposition bench who can lead a party that is ready to govern.

      Labour needs to show it can get its own house in order and that it is a unified ‘broad church’ party from caucus to membership and affiliates, before it can convince people it is able to manage a coalition government, take the country through these difficult times, and start helping us all adapt to a different future of financial, energy and environmental crises and challenges.

      Come on, Labour Caucus, come on and show us your better selves. Give us reasons, nay, just a very good reason, and remind and rally us, to provide our solid support to you so that you can govern for the common good, in the interest of the many of us in NZ.

      • Draco T Bastard 3.1.1

        So many ears and eyes cannot be wrong.

        Finally got round to watching Us Now last night. It highlights how people are organising via the internet and, interestingly, building trust. The lesson is clear, time for real democracy and not this BS representative democracy that got put in place because the rich/powerful were concerned that the people would lose their dependence upon them.

        • weka 3.1.1.1

          I’ll have a look at that, but have to say that plethora of white male faces on their youtube page doesn’t bode well. Nor the idea that we can all be connected as easily as on FB for the purposes of democracy.

          • Psycho Milt 3.1.1.1.1

            …that plethora of white male faces on their youtube page doesn’t bode well.

            Yes, I always find the ethnicity of the participants is a handy way of assessing how worthwhile something is… Oh, wait, I’ve got that the wrong way round – it’s completely fucking useless for that.

            • weka 3.1.1.1.1.1

              I know, it’s really bizarre to think that discussions about new kinds of democracy should include wimmen and non-white people, rather than it being optional.

              • vto

                personally weka, I find things don’t bode well when I see a plethora of brown faces.

                funny how we think the same …………

          • Draco T Bastard 3.1.1.1.2

            One of the points made in the documentary is that, through the online organising, people are no longer basing their decisions on what people look like or what they know of the person but what information the discussion has brought out. And one of the other points made was that wrong information is rapidly corrected – a point that was made by one of the women’s groups covered.

          • Transient Viper 3.1.1.1.3

            You fucking racist.

  4. bad12 4

    Reid poll???? snigger i would never dare to suggest nor hint that the Reid poll is possibly the most corrupted, twisted, biased poll of them all, never you hear,

    Should be a giggle soon as the Slippery cheerleaders start squealing in delight over ‘national governing alone’ as they did during the last trimester…

    • +1
      New definiton for poll: A form of self fulfilling prophecy; Dictating public opinion by telling the public what the publics’ opinion is.

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        I’d ban the publication of opinion polls in the 72 hours before a General Election.

        • blue leopard 4.1.1.1

          I’d ban them 72 years before a general election

          • Draco T Bastard 4.1.1.1.1

            That may be a little extreme but they certainly need to be banned during the electioneering period.

            • felix 4.1.1.1.1.1

              I’m not convinced that they serve any legitimate democratic function at any time.

            • weka 4.1.1.1.1.2

              I’d go for two weeks minimum, but preferably six weeks or longer. Imagine how the media would have to change for a start.

              • Colonial Viper

                I went for 72 hours in order to balance the need to maintain maximum media freedoms while still serving the needs of the democratic electoral process.

          • King Kong 4.1.1.1.2

            I would make it a rule that the results of a poll couldn’t be publisized unless they were good news for the party I support.

          • QoT 4.1.1.1.3

            Banned totally unless Nate Silver has personally approved the pollster’s methodology and media narrative told about it.

        • kenny 4.1.1.2

          Three weeks will do.

      • Jimmie 4.1.2

        Hmmm so if Labour was polling 47% and the Nats were on 31% you would still say the same thing?

        Ignoring the polls won’t make them go away – they are a sign that the voting public is not happy with who Labour are right now and haven’t been since 2008.

        Instead of bleating on for years about the inaccuracies of polls and how the evil Nats will be gone once the public awaken to cronyism Labour should have spent 2009-10 reviewing why they lost the lost 2008 election.

        Having worked this out via review they should then have selected a whole new crop of candidates for the 2011 election with the aim of building towards a 2014 victory.

        By 2014 you would have had a crop of keen, fresh upstarts chaffing at the bit to get into the treasury benches with a party and policy to match (and a leader??)

        Key would have found it a lot harder to aim for a 3rd term under this scenario.

        But no what did Labour do? Installed the old has beens in the caucus leadership, kept the same tired policies, and pretended that the polls were inaccurate.

        Result? Record loss at the 2011 election, and very few new MP’s coming in. Throw in a new insipid leader, a broke party, and factional splits more ways than a dominos pizza.

        Now everyone realizes that its a mess but who is gona fix it?

        • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.1

          +1

          And too many of the new MPs who did get in were chosen because of their support of the status quo hierarchy, not because they were expected to upset the status quo hierarchy.

        • Draco T Bastard 4.1.2.2

          Hmmm so if Labour was polling 47% and the Nats were on 31% you would still say the same thing?

          Possibly but humanity is a strange beast.

          At the last election a number of voters didn’t vote because they believed National had already won, i.e, influenced by the polls. If they had voted National wouldn’t be in power today.

          Thing is, the people most likely to vote happen to be the right-wingers and so a poll that showed Labour was going to win may, in fact, spur more of them to vote rather than turn them off voting.

          The fact that voting was influenced by the MSMs polling is why it needs to be banned before the election.

          Record loss at the 2011 election

          Um, what? It was one of the closest elections yet in NZ.

          • blue leopard 4.1.2.2.1

            Oh! I wrote my comment without seeing yours!

          • King Kong 4.1.2.2.2

            I would agree with your generalisation that left voters are spineless morons.

            • Draco T Bastard 4.1.2.2.2.1

              Not spineless but a feeling of powerlessness. They will correct for that feeling in one way or another.

          • Enough is Enough 4.1.2.2.3

            Why do we assume that the people who did not vote in 2011 were lefties. I have seen no evidence to suggest that proposition is correct.

            The fact that the polls suggested National was going to win could have same effect on right leaning voters. Righties assuming they were going to win stayed at home as there was no real need to leave their palace to stand in a line to vote.

            Some voters only get motivated if they think it will be close and their one vote will make a difference.

            I am not saying that is the case but can has anyone got any evidence that the 2011 non-voters were proporitionally any different to those who did vote?

            • richard 4.1.2.2.3.1

              Some figures from http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/

              Just looking at the Party votes:

              Election   Labour   National
              1999     800,199    629,932
              2002    838,219    425,310
              2005    935,319    889,813
              2008    796,880    1,053,398
              2011    614,937    1,058,636

              While showing the total number of votes received, I couldn’t find the number of people enrolled to vote, so no idea if non-voters increased or decreased from election to election

              • Enough is Enough

                Thanks Richard

                What I am asking is how those numbers stack up for non-voters. It is quite possible that noone has any idea. But for some reason the left thinks the reason we lost was because a million people didn’t turn out to vote in 2011.

                I want to know why we think those non-voters would have voted for the left?

                The polls before and after the election would in fact suggest the opposite.

                I happy to be proven wrong….

                • Draco T Bastard

                  I want to know why we think those non-voters would have voted for the left?

                  It’s a fact that’s been popping up in research around the world for the last 50+ years. The group most likely not to vote are the poor and they’re most likely to vote for a left leaning party if they voted.

                  • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell

                    Because left wing people are lazy?

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Left wing people did the Long March and thew out the fucking Chinese capitalists, they also got rid of the Romanovs and then fucked the Wehrmacht

                      the neoliberal pricks took all the jobs away from the working class and now you have the gall to pick over the remains and call people lazy

                      If you want lazy look at the rentier capitalists who sit on their fat asses extracting money from actual productive workers.

                      Apart from rambling incoherently, I think the issue is that there is no left wing political party to vote for, just different shades of the market led capitalist status quo, and political leaders all hyper-attuned to the opinions of the comfortable middle class.

                    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell

                      I didn’t call them lazy, I was worried you might be.

                    • Draco T Bastard

                      Nope.

                • Ross

                  They most likely would have split along the exact same lines as existed so you most likely would have got the same result.

              • richard

                Thinking about these numbers a bit more, two things emerge:

                1. Bill English will never, ever lead the national party again (joy)
                2. Labour has lost 320,000 voters since the 2005 election.

                Surely someone in the Labour party would be wondering what the party should be doing to get those 320,000 voters back instead of plodding on with the same ol’, same ol’ bollocks which sees them shedding voters.

                • Colonial Viper

                  And the population has increased since 2005

                • Boadicea

                  It is the fault of the bloggers on The Standard?
                  It is the fault of David Cunliffe?
                  It can be fixed by coaching from Ian Fraser?
                  If the whole party was run a well as Wellington Central there would be no problem.
                  If Shearer was only given enough time, to prove himself, there would be no problem.

        • blue leopard 4.1.2.3

          @ Jimmie

          Hmmm so if Labour was polling 47% and the Nats were on 31% you would still say the same thing?

          If Labour were doing the amount of dodgy things that Nat are; such as removing our rights and breaking rules left, right and centre and showing blatant disregard for democratic process on a regular basis and the polls were as positive for Labour as they are for Nats now, yes, I would still be thinking the same thing; that the pollsters are poll pushing ~ using polls to shift opinion. [Because, really, it is hard to see the politicians doing anything to warrant that level of popularity.]

          “Ignoring the polls won’t make them go away”

          I did not say I ignored the polls I said I have trouble trusting that they are anything other than tools of opinion manipulation. A good lie often has some truth involved. A little exaggeration perhaps can go a long way, for instance:

          Why did so many stay at home on election day?

          Could it be that lots of people thought “What is the bloody point; Nat is polling so high~everyone else must like them. My vote won’t make any difference.”?

          Sometimes I suspect that the weakest point of left wing politics may be a certain naivety regarding how low political tactics can go; and discounting such tactics leaves us unable to counteract them. I am aware that opinion manipulation is a pretty sophisticated field of activity; there is a whole science developed on the subject. (more than one science).

          Which brings me to the subject that you mainly speak of, a way forward: strategy.

          I agree with your comments (which, by the way, require none of these reid/roymorgan polls to act upon ~ to have taken the election results seriously would have sufficed)

          What you write is a pretty straight-forward common-sense dare I say obvious way to address the election result; which brings me to the question that naturally arises:

          Where are Labour’s strategists? Who are they? Do they exist at all?, and if so, Where are their heads at???

          • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.3.1

            They view the entire country and the wider electorate through bubble-lensed beltway glasses. Hopeless and disconnected.

            • blue leopard 4.1.2.3.1.1

              The job market is ferocious for ordinary people ~ are political strategists immune to the pressures the rest of us are under?

              Perhaps being fired might give them the life experience they require to engage in everyday issues. (Like joblessness, for example).

              • Colonial Viper

                The advisors are usually amongst the most desperate to keep the status quo hierarchy in place; they know if the Leadership team changes, they too will most likely be gone.

                Labour strategists and staffers have fuck all job options compared to the ones working for National. The Tories always look after their own. Well, unless you screw up on a Gilmore scale.

          • David H 4.1.2.3.2

            “Why did so many stay at home on election day” ?
            Well just ;look at what they had to vote for, do you really blame them???

            “Where are Labour’s strategists”? Mallard was one, maybe the only one??

            “Who are they”? The same fools that have been there since the 2k5 election debacle.

            “Do they exist at all?, Unfortunately yes

            “Where are their heads at???” Firmly up their arses!

            It may well be that at least a million plus Labour supporters stay home on polling day, or they vote Green.

        • Saarbo 4.1.2.4

          +1, perfect summation Jimmie!

        • Foreign Waka 4.1.2.5

          Labour – and in this case it is not nomen est omen – is outdated and irrelevant. The few good people who could have saved the day have been put into the corner of shame – for non compliance with these boarding school bullies. It is especially the young that are feeling disaffected and whilst they are not really looking to the Nats they have not many choices. The greens have too early aligned themselves with labour and thus stall. It would be better for the Greens to go it alone and split the vote at a far greater rate so that Dunne and the Teacaddy won’t be the deciders.
          I belief that the time is not quite come for a New Labour but it will come.

  5. Yes 5

    Polls show that no left party has credibility to run the treasury benches. That’s all. Shearer said labour needs to concentrate on power and house affordability. What about things like international trade, r & d, super bubble and let’s talk about jobs. With GFC reclining now and natural market forces take over the only thing national needs to do is getting the debt levels down. Agree 200b is too much, 80b seems about the right gearing.

    Labour is all about labour now.

    Greens are all about labour swing voters and mana and Maori about individuals. National is the complete package at the moment

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      GFC has only just started.

      • Yes 5.1.1

        Nah..surplus projected for next 10 years will kill that debt. Next step reign in council spending.

        • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1

          Nah, projected surpluses can’t be used to pay real debt. And those projections don’t take into account GFC phase 2, which is warming up.

        • ghostwhowalksnz 5.1.1.2

          Bill English has no plans to repay ANY debt. Hell just keep on rolling it over.

          If theres a surplus, which seems to be just around the corner after the next election…. moving the goalposts every 9 months or so, it will go in tax cuts for the wealthy

        • Psycho Milt 5.1.1.3

          surplus projected for next 10 years will kill that debt.

          That’s awesome. Your projected TAB winnings for the next 10 years will kill your mortgage, too.

        • Puddleglum 5.1.1.4

          So you oppose the anchor projects in Christchurch? (National’s ‘think big’ for the city council.)

  6. DS 6

    For the millionth time: it’s the trend that matters.

  7. Yes 7

    Breaking news..4 MPs resign from labour tomorrow and defects to greens (2).. Mana(1) and independent (1)

    • felix 7.1

      dox or gtfo

    • North 7.2

      Breaking news…….Yes drowns in his own excretia, excrement……no one cares. Particularly ShonKey Python – “Thank Christ……that wannabee fuckwit won’t be phoning again. I’ve told him/her/it time and time again. Ambassador Galapagos Islands has gone ! Gilmore. Shut the prick up”.

  8. It was quite funny to watch, in a black-humour kind of way. Gower obviously feels like the result is a vindication of his efforts to put the vital political issues of the day in front TV3’s viewers – his choices for said vital political issues being, natch, Labour MPs in Sky City’s corporate box and the proposed “man ban” (in quotes because, apparently unlike the professionals working for TV3, I’m not a complete fucking idiot).

  9. Core_Labour_Voter (Tory troll) 9

    I am disappointed with the negativity shown here over Shearer. OK, I agree Labour is not doing well. But it is holding steady at 31% and the support partner Greens are steady at 12%. NZ First is inching up and I am sure it will cross 5% on election night. All Labour needs to do is claw up another 4% on election night. Then it will be a Labour-Green-NZ First-Hone Centre-Left government. I will start to worry only if Labour drops below 30%. Let us not destabilise the leadership now. Let us stay united folks.

    • QoT 9.1

      I’m disappointed with the negativity shown towards the patient’s condition. He isn’t doing well, but he is holding steady at only losing one leg. Let’s not destabilise him by pointing out he’s lost a leg. Let’s stay united.

      Besides, if we wish really hard other folks will come along to prop him up, which is practically the same as having two legs.

    • Rosetinted 9.2

      If we don’t act now when it is important and possible to try and get some real Labour integrity in the Leadership, then when? The present poor cowardly pollies running the Left ticket, will be lucky to get their tired legs over the finish line.

    • Struth 9.3

      Labour’s been steady on around 31 for four years. It’s not getting any better. In the latest poll Shearer’s personal competence rating dropped from 36 to 26. The public know he’s just not up to it.

      If your hope of a Labour-led government relies on Shearer picking up four points against Key in the campaign, and Winston getting to five and choosing to play third fiddle to Labour and the Greens (with Hone at his side),then you’re dreaming. He’ll go play kingmaker with his old party the Nats in a second.

      Labour can’t win with Shearer. He needs to go, as does every MP who devised and propped up this dreadful experiment. He owes it to Labour to do the honourable thing.

      • Craig Glen viper 9.3.1

        Totally agree Struth.

      • Transient Viper 9.3.2

        Why doesn’t he do the honourable thing?

        Surely he can see he is useless. He’s earned good money as opposition leader, and he’s got plenty stashed away in his UN account. Why does he perpetuate his and Labour’s misery?

    • gobsmacked 9.4

      I suspect that “Core Labour Voter” … isn’t.

      But the “destabilising” line needs exploring. Is it “destabilising” to point out that somebody else is destabilising? So if (e.g.) Shane Jones behaves like a dick, and breaks caucus discipline, is he destabilising, or are we the bad guys because we notice him doing it? If the leader destabilises the party by obeying the right-wing blogs, should we all pretend it didn’t happen?

      Our job is to publicly support the destabilisers at the top, because anything else would destabilise, is that how it goes?

      • McFlock 9.4.1

        I suspect that the level of destabilising dickishness comes down to whether the response is proportionate to the perceived fault, and whether the perceived fault is at all reflective of an actual fault.

        E.g. if there was, say, a remit that was shilly-shallied on and then kicked back to council (sorry, council were “asked to reconsider it”), was this poor form because the leader was destabilising the party by obeying the right-wing blogs that thought up a catchy critical tag for that remit, or was the leader boldly listening to the wishes of those proud internet Waitakere Men within the Labour membership who felt that for the good of Labour the remit should never have gotten so far in the process and that even taking the remit to conference was electoral suicide? Or maybe all sides within Labour acted like a dick on that one.

    • Grantoc 9.5

      There’s no way that such a centre left coalition will last even 6 months; especially if Shearer is still Labour’s leader and therefore PM. Shearer cant manage Labour and its factions now; let alone a coalition that includes the Greens, NZ First and Mana.

      But it would be fun to watch him try.

    • Johnny 9.6

      center left?? hone is not center left neither are the greens, both are far left fringe extremists hone particularly. All these egos and nutters in power hone/winston/wussell/lab hacks left over from the clark regime will be an absolute disaster

    • Foreign Waka 9.7

      This response is the reason why Labour cannot gain ground. No idea about the future, just hold steady at 30%…..obviously there is no interest and passion for capturing the PEOPLE’S imagination and trying to gun for a majority at the next election.

  10. hush minx 10

    Seems a little ironic to me that with polls falling short of where labor was in 2008 that Helen Clark is in/ shortly to be in (?) town. She might have a few words of wisdom about how to pull a divided team together…

  11. Jenny 11

    With human beings
    Perception is everything

    Jenny

    • George D 11.1

      Yes.

      It might be nice to imagine we’re otherwise, but humans are creatures of emotion and perception. And the thing that the public think of as “Labour” has failed to create these in adequate measure (I’d argue since 2005 or 2006).

  12. Daveosaurus 12

    It’s the infighting, stupid.

    Why should the rest of us vote for a party who can’t even get behind their leader?

  13. Boadicea 13

    We should be at that point where Mike Smith rows in with a patrician ticking off for all of us.

  14. Santi 14

    It’s time to put differences aside and firmly unite behind David Shearer, who is the leader and our only hope.
    Stay firm, David S.

  15. JK 15

    Our household had the pollsters phone in for this Reid Research poll. The questions were so focused we thought it was the Labour Party doing an “internal” poll. The family member who answered the pollster obviously thinks very much like the rest of NZ – Shearer (and the ABCs) have got it totally wrong. The Labour caucus will be history if they don’t change!

    • Colonial Viper 15.1

      Labour internal polls tend to be by UMR.

    • Santi 15.2

      Part of the problem is the closeness to the Green Party. Time for David S. to put some space between Labour and the more extreme Green policies.
      He seems to follow Norman. It cannot continue that way.

  16. Winston Smith 16

    Gee Labour going down in the polls…theres a surprise but don’t wonrry its probably just a rogue poll and the only one that counts is on election day :)

    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 16.1

      It’s more complicated than that, Winston.

      1. The polls are rogue.

      2. All polls are captured by corporate interests and they make the results up to discourage the left.

      3. People are waking up. Why, I just spoke to someone the other day who has voted for John Key and now sees he is corrupt.

      4. Labour is not popular because it is too right wing. Once it moves left of the Mana party, it will be massively popular.

      • Santi 16.1.1

        I second your superb analysis.

      • King Kong 16.1.2

        Don’t forget;

        5. On the third coup he arose triumphant to heal the hearts of the unfaithful. And lo, Cunliffe did give the right of the caucus sight and to the left he brought wisdom and he ruled forever and ever.

      • felix 16.1.3

        “Labour is not popular because it is too right wing. Once it moves left of the Mana party, it will be massively popular.”

        I’d be happy if they moved to the left of the National party.

  17. erikter 17

    Shearer is lucky the earthquake hit and took away attention from this poll. The TV1 poll will be interesting. I assume it is next weekend?

    Another bad poll, another nail in the coffin for Shearer. Hard to see how he will be able to move on with this continued scrutiny of his leadership. Once it starts, it is hard to shake off esp when your colleagues are trying to undermine you.

    • Not a PS Staffer 17.1

      erikter is a troll.
      it is saying the opposite on other pages.
      erikter to be banned again

  18. Winston Smith 18

    On a serious note for a change, how dispiriting is it for you Labour supporters to see Labour going backwards yet knowing how simple a fix it would be to get Labour going forward.

    The ideas that are bandied about are quite simple: replace Shearer, older MPs to leave, work as a team, stop shooting yourselves in the foot and refocus on the working man and woman

    Its not hard or earth shattering yet time and time again Labour start to gain traction yet someone comes along and sticks their fott in their mouth

    I don’t know how you do it

    • vto 18.1

      You are right that the formula is simple.

      But you are wrong that it is merely “dispiriting”. It is much worse than that to have a crooked liar and ex-money trader as the Prime Minister. Someone who panders to the dollar over everything else. Someone who lies so easily he can’t even keep up himself. Someone who continually makes things harder for the lowly and easier for the rich. Someone who wants to record all of my information all day every day. Someone who lies and in a complete and utter fascist manner trashes democracy so that his voters can steal water they could not otherwise obtain for their greedy desires.

      You sound like you are one of those unaffected by the acts and lies of this corrupt government and its arsehole participants.

      • Winston Smith 18.1.1

        No not really but the economy is doing better than most, unemployment down, crime down so looking at the big picture NZ is in a pretty good place

        • King Kong 18.1.1.1

          Don’t forget that people in my boat just made another $70000 on the value of their house in the last year. Yay National.

  19. captain hook 19

    New Zealand is not a good place when every second person is using the Hooton inspired interrogative figure of speech.
    This one was dreamed up by him to distinguish National Party supporters from others and it is disrespectful, an invalid argument from authorty and dishonest.
    Its all over the talkshows and the sports announcers and it is the most dishonest result of slimy politics this country has ever seen.
    isn’t it?

  20. Exactly how low does labour have to go in the polls, until the “You have to look at the trends” people will admit, they’re in trouble.

    • Winston Smith 20.1

      They’ll never admit it…

    • felix 20.2

      They’re right though, you do have to look at the trends. Anything else is noise.

      And the trend shows Labour has been flatlining for a long long time.

      • McFlock 20.2.1

        Not really. A long gradual positive incline followed by a steeper (but not yet deeper) dip.

        Causes? Maybe labour. Maybe the time of year. My personal suspicion is that it might have something to do with two or three of the main political editors in NZ media having placed their reputations on the line for poor labour performance and a leadership change. If there is no leadership change before the end of the year, people might think they are full of shit. If there is a change, they are mystically-gifted seers. If labour goes down further, it’s a “crisis for Shearer”. If labour go up a few points, it’s “might not be enough to save him”. If it goes up further, it’s “managing to hold off the challengers… for now”. My point being that it’s not more than just “tory media” – senior individuals have essentially staked their professional reputation on the labour caucus being a simmering pot of discontent just waiting to boil over. How true that is, or whether people have largely jiggled into their respective roles, is now irrelevant to the story.

        How long does it take to get signatures on a letter, anyway? Don’t they only need something like 18?

        • felix 20.2.1.1

          “A long gradual positive incline followed by a steeper (but not yet deeper) dip”

          Mostly within the margin of error. Labour’s polling in real terms is flat.

          • McFlock 20.2.1.1.1

            What – 27 to 35-odd is flat? Nope. That would be underfitting a trendline for rhetorical effect. In fact given that the election is the absolute measure of support (rather than the estimate of support that the polls are – an election is a complete count of the population who cast a valid vote, rather than a likely sample of that population), there shouldn’t even be a MoE on 27%.

            “Close to where they started”, maybe, but not “flat”.

            • Colonial Viper 20.2.1.1.1.1

              Dead flat from 2009 and 2010.

              • McFlock

                By that logic, Edmund Hillary had a dead flat walk between March and June, 1953.

                • Colonial Viper

                  More like walking to the bottom of the cook strait and coming back up on to dry land.

                  • McFlock

                    And who led labour to the bottom of Cook Strait? I suppose at the moment they’re wandering around the foothills of the Kaikouras, to torture the analogy. Who knows whether they’ll head off to Aoraki/Mt Cook, or boldly stomp off towards the Pacific Basin? Certainly not Garner or Gower.

                    But at least you’re getting the idea that similar elevations quite some distance apart do not mean that the intermediate elevations are “dead flat”.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Fuck you’re a valiant, if oblique, defender of the current Labour hierarchy.

                      Labour under Shearer is polling exactly the same as Goff, at the same stage of the triannum. The current polling performance is nothing more than a reversion to the 2009/2010 mean. Dead flat in other words.

                    • McFlock

                      On what fucking planet is “steep descent into a deep valley, followed by a long but gradual rise, and then a bit of a drop over the last wee bit to end up at roughly the same elevation before the descent” ever a description that is interchangeable with “dead flat”? Try walking the two, and you might figure out why you’re underfitting the trendline for rhetorical effect. Or, in words you can understand, “making shit up”.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      I don’t care how elaborate a path you’ve taken mate, Labour is right back where it was in 2009, 2010, and most of 2011.

                    • McFlock

                      To be slightly more precise, you don’t care to let reality get in the way of your assessments of labour’s performance over the last couple of terms.

                      For example, the half dozen morgan polls in 2009 where Labour polled in the high 20s. Number of times they’ve polled in the 20s since the 2011 election? Four. None in 2013. Although Labour did slightly better over 2008, (difference seems to be the greens were polling quite a bit lower but that might imply that labour going more left might simply take votes from the greens). 2011 results don’t seem to be on the RM website, but ISTR Labour having at least one RM result in the low 20s during 2011.

                      “Dead flat” indeed.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      OK I admit it, you got me fair and square. There is a real difference between 28% in 2009 and 31% in 2013. Shearer should certainly take all the credit that difference entails.

                    • Alanz

                      Shearer should not disproportionately take so very much credit for that 3 percent diff. There is also someone called Shonkey.

                    • McFlock

                      There is a real difference between 28% in 2009 and 31% in 2013.

                      aaaaand – you’ve lost the point again. Shit must have been getting too real for you.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      You want to give Shearer the credit for that massive uplift? Cool.

                      Go die in a ditch with Shearer if you like, McFlock, good luck to you mate.

                    • McFlock

                      you almost had it, too. “dead flat”… all that?

                    • Colonial Viper

                      You still trying to prove yourself right on a technicality? Hey good for you, I concede, you win.

                      A move in the polls from 28% to 31% over 4 years is not “dead flat”. It’s actually a solid positive trend. Labour should be at 34% under Shearer, by say 2017.

                    • McFlock

                      Given that an RM poll just before the election had labour on 23%, and that 31% is the low point of the trends over the last few months, it’s more than a technicality. But the point, yet again, is that calling the line between 2009 and now “flat” is fucking stupid. It’s like calling the earth “blue” and saying no more thought about it is needed. But you need to look at labour’s polling with such massive granularity because if you actually looked at the details you’d have to admit that the world is slightly more complex that ‘cunliffe good leader, everyone else in caucus evil and/or abjectly incompetent leader’.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      I’ve already admitted that Shearer has caused an uplift in the polls to 31%. What more do you want?

                      What would you know about concepts of leadership complexity? Shearer is just fine, remember.

                    • McFlock

                      Are you really so stupid as to think that:
                      A) because the line between two arbitrarily-selected points is straight, the best description of the observations between those points is also a straight line; and
                      B) party polling is interchangeable in meaning with party leadership;
                      so therefore
                      Conclusion) the entirety of party leadership performance can bejudged by the slope of a straight line between two arbitrarily-selected points?

                      Any one of those statements is stupid, and yet that seems to be the gist of your argument: shearer is proved to be bad because the polls have not much slope between two arbitrary points.

                    • felix

                      “Arbitrarily selected” lolz.

                      Point (a) is Labour’s support when Shearer took office. Point (b) is Labour’s support now.

                      If you think there are any two less arbitrary points by which to measure Labour’s performance under Shearer’s leadership, I’d love to know what they are.

                    • McFlock

                      Apart from the fact that CV wasn’t using election night as his initial points for “dead flat” were “2009 and 2010″. But even if we compared the real observation of election night (rather than an RM estimate from Nov2011), the best description of the RM estimates between those points is not a straight line, “flat” or otherwise.

                      The last three RM points have been a deviation from the pattern over the last 18 months (three consecutive falls for Labour), and this is a concern. About three times as much of a concern as a single lower point – so I’m not shitting bricks just yet.

                      But what’s more of a concern for me is the frenzy by Garner/Gower et al – it could possibly just be a self-fulfiling prophecy (a bit like talking down stock price). If it’s genuinely someone else in caucus angling for position before list selection (I don’t think it’s Cunliffe if it is), then they deserve a kick in the nuts. Taking this long to have the confidence issue done and dusted beggars belief.

                      Heh – come to think of it, if there is someone trying to do that and making such a pig’s breakfast of it, then the lack of political deftness would seem to be in character for someone who likes to shit on Labour’s only real coalition hope for the government benches… well, now that Chris carter’s gone, anyway :)

                    • felix

                      “the best description of the RM estimates between those points is not a straight line, “flat” or otherwise.”

                      And the difference between those two points is…

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Its an upslope, I tellsya, Shearer despite a few minor flaws has been such a boost for Labour, why can’t everyone see that?! Yer bunch of ungrateful Judases!

                    • McFlock

                      And the difference between those two points is…

                      One was the upswing of a downward trend (RM had one point before the election of lab on 23.5%) whereas the other is the downswing on an upward trend?
                      18 months?
                      Whether your glasses tint is rosy red, tory blue, or depression black?

                    • felix

                      3.5% is the most charitable reading. And most of that was made up in the first month.

                      1. Shearer took over leadership of Labour in December 2011 after an election result of 27.5%.

                      2. The first RM of 2012 had Labour still at 27.5%.

                      3. By the end of Jan 2012 RM had Labour at 30.5%

                      4. 18 months later Labour is at 31%

                      It’s margin of error stuff whichever way you look at it.

                    • McFlock

                      If you insist on ignoring every single datapoint in between.
                      If you ignore the possibility (likelihood) that RM used the election to calibrate their regional and demographic sampling weights in order to make the first poll after the election match the election result.
                      If you ignore the other parties and performance of likely coalition partners in parliament and pretend it’s an FPP two-horse race.

                      If you’re prepared to throw out every principle of statistical analysis in the textbook, just so you can act all emo teen, then if all that, why even bother looking at the polls? Reality might get in the way of a really good sulk.

                    • felix

                      lolz. Are you saying that the current level (31%) is wildly out of step with the rest of the datapoints?

                      What is the median level of support over the past 18 months?

                    • felix

                      ps you’re right I don’t know much about statistical data analysis. What does it indicate when the mean, median and mode are the same?

                    • McFlock

                      Over time-series datapoints between 27% to 35.5%? It means you’re trying to find a midpoint of the set rather analyse whether/how the set has changed over time. Finding a line of best fit would be more suitable.

                      It also means that this insomnia is a bitch, and I’ll probably be quite nasty todarrow. But then you’re in the same boat, unless you’re shiftworking. :)

        • Psycho Milt 20.2.1.2

          …it might have something to do with two or three of the main political editors in NZ media having placed their reputations on the line for poor labour performance and a leadership change.

          That’s my suspicion too. Watching Gower peddling a survey he’s had done on whether Labour voters think Shearer needs to go for Labour to win the next election, I was wondering why he’d commission that poll – the most plausible answer is he’s now got a personal stake in Shearer getting rolled, having effectively staked his reputation on it.

          • North 20.2.1.2.1

            Reputation??????????????

            Mine Potty,Gower???????

            LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          • Santi 20.2.1.2.2

            Wrong, wrong, wrong.
            The leader David Shearer needs to stay for Labour to win the next election.

            • Sable 20.2.1.2.2.1

              Shearer has shown himself to be lacking, Labour needs someone who is willing to stand up and fight.

  21. Sable 21

    Shearer has been handed an enormous amount of ammunition by National in the form of lies and half truths he could have used to cut Keys down to size and yet he has repeatedly failed to monopolize on these opportunities. He has to GO NOW and let someone more capable such as Annette King take the reigns.

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    Greens | 16-11
  • IRD joins Corrections in Phillip Smith failure
    It is incomprehensible that IRD and Corrections were not able to stop Phillip Smith from rorting the tax system out of $50,000 until it was too late, given that he was a notoriously manipulative prisoner stuck in jail, says Labour’s...
    Labour | 13-11
  • The Government has to listen to Olly
    When even hard boiled property investors like Olly Newland  say first home buyers have been shafted by Loan to Value Ratio lending restrictions, surely it is time for the Government to listen, says Labour's housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  "Auckland landlord...
    Labour | 13-11
  • Key used GCSB for political ends prior to 2014 election
    New documents released to the Green Party show that Prime Minister John Key used New Zealand's intelligence services for the National Party's political ends a few days out from the 2014 election, the Green Party said today.Documents released to the...
    Greens | 13-11
  • Government not meeting its climate target
    The Government must front up to the fact that its own advisors are now saying that New Zealand is off target in any transition to a low carbon future, says Labour’s spokesperson on Climate Change Nanaia Mahuta.  “A briefing to...
    Labour | 12-11
  • Briefing reveals Defence facilities ‘increasingly unfit for purpose’
    The Defence Briefing to the Incoming Minister reveals a deteriorating state in Defence facilities that are no longer fit for purpose, says Labour’s Defence spokesperson Phil Goff.  “The briefing is heavily censored but still reveals that Defence camps, bases and...
    Labour | 12-11
  • New projections show New Zealand missing climate target
    Briefings to Incoming Ministers released today reveal the Government's climate policy is failing with projected emission more than double what is needed to meet National's 2050 target, the Green Party saidProjections released by the Ministry for the Environment, as part...
    Greens | 12-11
  • National’s highways far less efficient
    National’s new state highways have a far lower cost-benefit ratio than motorways built under the last Labour Government, making a mockery of the Government’s bluster that its road building will boost the economy, says Labour's Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. “New...
    Labour | 12-11
  • Governor points finger at National on supply
    The Reserve Bank Governor has admitted he had to keep loan to value mortgage restrictions in place because the Government’s attempts to increase housing has fallen ‘a long way short’, says Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “The thousands of first...
    Labour | 12-11
  • Did Collins cover up Slater’s OIA requests?
    Disgraced former Cabinet Minister Judith Collins must explain why she appears to have tried to hide Official Information Act requests she fulfilled for Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater, Labour MP Megan Woods says. “New documents obtained by Labour show Judith...
    Labour | 11-11
  • Reserve Bank’s dairy warning must be heard
    The Reserve Bank’s warning that falling dairy prices are creating greater risks for the New Zealand economy must be taken seriously by Bill English and John Key, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker. “Dairy prices have nearly halved since February...
    Labour | 11-11
  • National’s housing failure keeps LVRs in place
    The Reserve Bank’s decision to leave loan-to-value ratio mortgage restrictions in place is further confirmation of National’s housing policy fiasco, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Reserve Bank would have lifted LVRs if they had seen any increase in...
    Labour | 11-11
  • Let’s see if it is plane sailing Mr Bridges
    Comments by Transport Minister Simon Bridges that Far North residents' anger over cutbacks to regional flights will be allayed by larger planes and cheaper fares out of Kerikeri, are just pure arrogance, says Labour’s Te Tai Tokerau MP Kelvin Davis....
    Labour | 11-11
  • Commerce Commission inquiry needed into building supplies monopoly
    The Commerce Commission must stop dragging the chain and urgently investigate the anti-competitive practices in the building industry that are driving up the cost of building materials, says Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Competition in the building materials market is...
    Labour | 11-11
  • Air New Zealand grounds Far North
    The announcement by Air New Zealand to close services from Kaitaia to Auckland will be an absolute disaster for the Far North, Labour MP for Te Tai Tokerau Kelvin Davis says.  “Air New Zealand is sending a signal to the...
    Labour | 11-11
  • Pulling West Coast flights a savage blow
    Air New Zealand’s decision to withdraw its Westport service is another kick in the guts for an already struggling community, West Coast-Tasman MP, Damien O’Connor says.   “Having been involved in the West Coast’s efforts to get Air Nelson to return...
    Labour | 11-11
  • Air NZ cuts economic lifelines to neglected regions
    Air New Zealand’s plans to cut its Eagle Air regional services to already struggling regions is a hammer blow to Westport, Whakatane and Kaitaia, says Labour's Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. “The regions of New Zealand are being abandoned by this...
    Labour | 11-11
  • Christchurch on the rent rack
    A jump of 20 per cent in weekly rents in the past year is a disaster for Christchurch, says Associate Housing spokesperson Poto Williams. “The Trade Me Property Rental Price index has rightly described the city as being a ‘...
    Labour | 11-11
  • Past time to act on warnings about palliative care
    Health officials have been warning the Government about a critical shortage of palliative care specialists for years, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader and Health spokesperson Annette King says. A stocktake carried out for the Ministry of Health shows New Zealand’s end...
    Labour | 10-11
  • Report must spur Government into action
    The soaring cost of domestic violence and child abuse highlight the need for the Government to prioritise and act on the issue, says Labour's spokesperson for Social Development, Sue Moroney.“Findings from the Glenn Inquiry that show the problem is estimated...
    Labour | 10-11
  • Family safety paramount, then urgent review
    Corrections Minister Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga has some serious questions to answer over why a dangerous prison escapee, convicted of further crimes while in jail, managed to abscond while he was on approved temporary release, Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says.“Phillip...
    Labour | 09-11
  • LVRs a failed experiment from Bill English
    Loan to value mortgage restrictions are a failed experiment from Bill English to tame Auckland house prices, that have caused collateral damage to first home buyers and other regions, says Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “The possible end of LVR...
    Labour | 09-11
  • Govt books getting worse as economy slows
    National’s economic credibility is under serious scrutiny with its search for surplus becoming harder due to an economy far too reliant on the dairy industry, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker. “National promised New Zealanders would get into surplus by...
    Labour | 06-11
  • Kiwis in pain because of Government underfunding
    New research showing one in three people needing elective surgery are being denied publicly-funded operations shows the Government must properly fund the health sector, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “For almost two years Labour has been warning about the...
    Labour | 06-11
  • National’s promised surplus looking doubtful
    Budget figures for the first quarter of the financial year released today by Treasury show the Government's goal of achieving a budget surplus is looking doubtful, the Green Party said today."National has staked its credibility on achieving a budget surplus...
    Greens | 06-11
  • Kevin Hague speaks on the Gambling Amendment Bill (No 3)
    I rise to give this speech on behalf of Denise Roche, who handles the gambling portfolio for the Green Party. This bill deals with class 4 gambling—pokies in pubs and clubs—and it is the result of changes that were suggested...
    Greens | 06-11
  • Kevin Hague speaks on the Health (Protection) Amendment Bill
    I would like to start off where the previous speaker left off, on the issue of balancing rights or balancing harms. All law is in some way a restriction of personal liberty. That is the point of law. When we...
    Greens | 06-11
  • Joyce backs away from yet another target
    Steven Joyce has backed away from two targets in two days, refusing to acknowledge that his Government has an unambitious aim to get unemployment down to 4 per cent in 11 years’ time, says Labour Associate Finance spokesperson David Clark....
    Labour | 06-11
  • Pacific peoples incomes and jobs falling under National
    The Minister of Pacific Peoples is attempting to bury the ugly facts of Pacific unemployment and income levels worsening since National took office in 2008, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson, Su’a William Sio. “If the Minister doesn’t acknowledge how bad...
    Labour | 06-11
  • The Block NZ doing a better job than Nick Smith
    Nick Smith should consider calling in producers of The Block NZ with participants in the TV series completing more houses in two seasons than the Government’s failed Special Housing Area policy, says Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “The Block NZ...
    Labour | 06-11
  • Annette King? Annette King?? Surely not Annette King!
    I’m not often surprised at the goings on in the Labour Party but I was gobsmacked to see Andrew Little has appointed Annette King as Deputy Leader of the parliamentary Labour Party. I had idly assumed the role would go to Adhern...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • New Shadow Cabinet – Little does more in 6 days than Goff, Shearer & ...
    New Zealanders do not respect intelligence, they respect confidence. Cunliffe beat Key in the debates, but it didn’t matter because NZers don’t respect the debate, they respect the tone. Our anti-intellecuatlism runs deeper than most with our reverse-egalitarianism. The chip...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • This weeks Waatea news column – The myths white people tell themselves
      This weeks Waatea news column – The myths white people tell themselves...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • The irony of backlash to petrol stations charging workers for stolen petrol
    You have to laugh at NZers sometimes. you really do. The outrage that has been sparked by news that workers at petrol stations are charged for stolen petrol is one of those perfect examples of a delicious irony most NZers...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • A Dishonest “Countering Terrorist Fighters Bill”
    Wouldn’t you think a Countering Terrorist Fighters Bill would actually mention “terrorist fighters” in its text? The Bill, as released yesterday, does not. It’s simply another generalised counter-terrorism exercise giving extra surveillance powers to the Security Intelligence Service and enabling...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • How biased is the media? A Patrick Gower case study
    . . . Isn’t it interesting that Patrick Gower – who made his partisan feelings crystal clear on Twitter on 29 May with this extraordinary outburst;  “Lalia Harré – you make me feel sick by how you are rorting MMP...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • The C Word
    It isn’t even December but the decorations are up and the ads are on the telly. I am a genuine Grinch come this time of year, so when the conversation at work turned to everyone’s holidays plans I may have...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • Honouring the Ampatuan massacre victims as fight for justice goes on
    A grim reminder of the Maguindanao, or Ampatuan, massacre on 23 November 2014. Photo: DanRogayan A TOP Filipino investigative journalist will be speaking about the “worst attack” on journalists in history and her country’s culture of impunity in a keynote...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – what are they afraid of: the erosion of democ...
    Today the Hamilton City Council has put on a big party to celebrate the 150th anniversary of European colonisation of the area.  There have been a series of events during the year to mark this event, including a civic ceremony. ...
    The Daily Blog | 22-11
  • #JohnKeyHistory
    John Key has done it again. This week our lovely Prime Minister has showed us how little he knows about the history of the country he is supposed to be running. Apparently “New Zealand was settled peacefully”. Was it really?...
    The Daily Blog | 22-11
  • G20 growth targets and growth model offer more problems than they solve
    At the recent G20 in Brisbane, member countries agreed to accelerate growth to an additional 2% on top of current trajectories. But ongoing public sector cuts, asset sales, and reducing workers’ rights indicate that at least part of the growth...
    The Daily Blog | 22-11
  • GUEST BLOG: Bill Courtney – Charter Schools: The Shroud of Secrecy Contin...
    The Ministry of Education yesterday released another batch of information relating to the five existing charter schools and the four new ones proposed for opening in 2015. As we have seen before, the release of such information, often requested under...
    The Daily Blog | 22-11
  • EXCLUSIVE: Campaign reflection, Laila Harré reaching out for radical minds
    Today I’ve announced that I will be stepping down from the Internet Party leadership in December. This will happen once options for the future have been developed for discussion and decision among members. My absolute focus in this election was...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • The Ebola crisis, capitalism and the Cuban medical revolution
    “Ebola emerged nearly 40 years ago. Why are clinicians still empty-handed, with no vaccines and no cure? Because Ebola has been, historically, geographically confined to poor African nations. The R&D incentive is virtually non-existent. A profit-driven industry does not invest...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • MEDIA WATCH: TVNZ Reveals Insane Deadlines For Māori and Pacific Island Pr...
    Last Tuesday, November 18th, TVNZ requested proposals from producers for the four Māori and Pacific Island programmes they will no longer be making in-house. Marae, Waka Huia, Fresh and Tagata Pasifika will keep their existing names, existing formats and existing...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • The Daily Blog Breakfast Club Ep. 1
    TDB Video, Live from Verona Cafe on K-Rd, Auckland – a weekly current affairs show with TDB Editor Martyn Bradbury. This week’s panel: Chris Trotter & Selwyn Manning.The issues: 1 – What now for the New Labour leader? 2 –...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • Performance-demonstration at Auckland’s High Court to demand justice for ...
    People outraged at the lack of justice in the so-called ‘Roast Busters’ case and 99% of other rape cases in this country are holding a visually powerful mass action at the Auckland High Court at 1 o’clock on Saturday. They...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • IES vote may weaken defense of public education
    PPTA announced today that secondary teachers have voted to include the IES (Investing in Education Success) as a variation to their collective employment agreement with the government. At one level it’s an understandable decision by PPTA members because through engaging in a consultation...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • NZ History lesson on Planet Key – the lies white people tell themselves
    John Key’s bizarre claims about our ‘peaceful history’ comes across like the apartheid history of South Africa where white people discovered Africa first… New Zealand ‘settled peacefully’ – PM New Zealand was “settled peacefully” by the British, the prime minister...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • Universal Basic Income and Labour Policy
    On Radio New Zealand’s None-to-Noon on Wednesday (19 November), new Labour leader Andrew Little intimated that he would like to put Universal Basic Income (UBI) on his policy agenda (What policy changes will Andrew Little usher in?) Predictably Kathryn Ryan, despite being...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • The New Notes : They Ain’t Mint
    Hulk Queen Angry. Hulk Queen smash.   Yesterday, the Reserve Bank announced its new designs for our banknotes. Now, I’ve historically been pretty sketch about this entire process; variously feeling affronted that the government could find eighty million dollars to fund a...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • MSM under-mining of new Labour Leader already begun?
    . . It did not take long. In fact, on the same day that Andrew Little won the Labour leadership*, the first media reporter was already asking if he would be stepping down  if Labour failed to lift in the...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • GUEST BLOG: Simon Buckingham – invisible disability voices
    Today I am ranting. The Disability Advisory Group has been announced by Auckland Council. This is the body that represents the interests and views of people with disabilities in Auckland. Whilst I would not have applied this time as I...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Andrew Little
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Andrew Little...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • Why labelling Little as a ‘Unionist’ is a joke and how he beats Key in ...
    The line being used to attack Andrew Little as a ‘Unionist’ is just an absurd joke, and it comes from people who clearly don’t understand the modern NZ Union movement. Andrew ran the EPM Bloody U, they are easily one...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • 5AA Australia – Labour’s New Leader + China’s President In New Zealan...
    Recorded on 20/11/14 – Captured Live on Ustream.tv. 5AA’s Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning.ISSUE ONE: The New Zealand Labour Party has elected its new leader, the vote going to a third round after no clear outright winner was found in...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • Did Roger Sutton think he was running the Rock Radio Station?
    Visible G-String Fridays? Full body hugs? Jokes about who you would and wouldn’t have sex with? Honey? Sweety? It’s like Roger thought he was running the Rock Radio Station, not a Government Public Service department set up to rebuild a...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • US Politics
      US Politics...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • Amnesty International – The conversation that needs to be had with China
    Caption: Police officer watching Hong Kong pro-democracy march, 01 July 2014 © Amnesty International    Yesterday’s edition of The New Zealand Herald features an open letter to all New Zealander’s from Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China. Along...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • GUEST BLOG: Patrick O’Dea – “Liar”
    LIAR! ‘Privatised social housing to benefit tenants’ English “Housing Corp was a poor performer and about a third of its housing stock was the wrong size, in poor condition and in the wrong place. That stock was worth about $5...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • Too Close For Comfort: Reflections on Andrew Little’s narrow victory over...
    THE TRAGIC SCREENSHOT of “Gracinda” in defeat bears eloquent testimony to the bitter disappointment of the Grant Robertson-led faction of the Labour Party. And, yes, ‘Party’ is the right word. The Robertson machine has now extended its influence well beyond...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • How to defeat child poverty
      How to defeat child poverty...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • Little’s Shadow Cabinet
    Now the horror of trying to pacify the factions begins. The only thing Little’s new shadow cabinet must do is create the pretence of unity. The reason voters didn’t flock to Labour wasn’t the bloody CGT or Superannuation, it was...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • A pilgrimage with my sister – Rethink the System
    We’ve both wanted to do a pilgrimage for many years. But, unlike many modern pilgrims, we wanted to be pilgirms in our own country and get closer to our communities, rather than seek greater distance from them. We are both...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • Lack of policy ambition is Andrew Little’s main problem
    I’ve met Andrew Little a few times and he’s a pleasant man who will make a reasonable job leading what the Labour Party has become in recent decades. He will preside over a much less divided caucus and will be...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • Journos, film makers, media freedom advocates join Asia-Pacific political j...
    A candlelight vigil for the 58 victims of the 2009 Maguindanao massacre – 32 of them media people. Still no justice for them today. Renowned investigative journalists, film makers, academics and media freedom campaigners from across the Asia-Pacific region will...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • And the new Labour Leader is ZZZZZZZZZZ
    The victory lap by Caucus over the members choice of Cunliffe has ended and the new leader of the Labour Party is Andrew Little. Yawn. The dullness and caution of the latest Leadership race will be served well by Andrew,...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • Allow the Facts to Get in the Way of the Neolib Stories
    One of the weaknesses of the political left in New Zealand over the last 30 years has been to allow the neoliberal storytellers to get away with lots of fibs and half-fibs. On TVNZ’s Q+A on 16 November, in a...
    The Daily Blog | 17-11
  • Defending The Boomers: A Response to Chloe King
    THE BABY-BOOM GENERATION (49-68 year-olds) currently numbers just under a quarter of New Zealand’s population. Even so, there is a pervasive notion that the generation of New Zealanders born between the end of World War II and the mid-1960s exercises...
    The Daily Blog | 17-11
  • This weeks Waatea news column – Waitangi Tribunal ruling enshrines Treaty...
      This weeks Waatea news column – Waitangi Tribunal ruling enshrines Treaty as a living document...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • Key now says SAS will be needed to protect ‘trainers’ behind the wire
    Well, well, well. What do we have here? Government could send SAS to Iraq New Zealand’s elite Special Air Service (SAS) could be deployed to Iraq to protect Kiwi troops sent to train local forces. Prime Minister John Key confirmed...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • Do You Want to Build a Meth Lab? (Frozen x Breaking Bad Parody)
    Do You Want to Build a Meth Lab? (Frozen x Breaking Bad Parody)...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • Soft soap for the rich – harsh taxes for the poor
    It’s no surprise to see New Zealand has one of the world’s lowest tax rates for the rich and the superrich. A survey by the global accounting network UHY shows New Zealand’s highest tax rates are lower than even Australia,...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • Phillip Smith and the rehabilitation process
    The dominant media narrative in horrible murder cases is that the perpetrator is unlikely ever to be rehabilitated. When it appears the offender may get parole the media turns first to family members of the victim who commonly (and understandably)...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • The Nation review: Finlayson’s terrifying definition of who is on terror ...
    Terrifying Nation today on TV3. Chris Finlayson is on justifying the Government’s Muslim fear mongering and extension of even more surveillance powers. It was jaw dropping. Finlayson says ‘alienated people with a chip on their shoulder’ is the threshold to get...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • A brief word on The Block NZ
    Is it just me or did The Block manage to sum up everything that is wrong about our culture and economy? Fetishised property speculation as mass entertainment in a country of homelessness & poverty. I wonder if State House tenants...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • Waitangi Tribunal ruling
    That spluttering choking sound of a thousand rednecks being informed Maori still have sovereignty is a hilarious cacophony of stupid… Crown still in charge: Minister Chris Finlayson on Waitangi Treaty ruling The Waitangi Tribunal’s finding that Maori chiefs who signed...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • A brief word on Phillip Smith
    We can arrest student loan & fine defaulters at the airport – but not convicted child molesting killers? Before we ban manufactured ISIS ‘terrorists’ from having passports, how about we just manage to stop child molesting killers from fleeing first?...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • Free Me From Religion
          The meeting begins – or at least it’s supposed to begin – but someone interrupts proceedings. She wants everyone to pray with their heads bowed while she can “thank our Father who art in Heaven.” I close...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • Key capitulates on TPPA while big money NZ set up propaganda fund
    So Key has capitulated on the ‘gold standard’ of free trade deals… The primary objective for New Zealand at Apec was to see some urgency injected into the TPP talks and to keep leaders aiming for a high quality deal....
    The Daily Blog | 13-11
  • Insane Law Perverting Course of Justice: SST
    Insane Law Perverting Course of Justice: SST The Sensible Sentencing Trust is slamming a decision which may acquit a Whakatane offender of serious dangerous driving charges....
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • Taranaki Base Hospital draped in white ribbons
    Taranaki Base Hospital draped in white ribbons to show violence towards women is never OK...
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • Family Violence Intervention Team uses social media
    Family Violence Intervention Team uses social media to say “no” to domestic violence Everyone has the right to feel safe at home. Many do not. One in three partnered New Zealand women report having experienced physical and/or sexual intimate partner...
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • Smoke Alarms in Rental properties
    TPA says recent calls for mandatory smoke alarm installations in rental properties is an opportunity for all parties to come together to improve the safety and quality of rental housing....
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • CTU will not engage in Governments sham consultation process
    Today the CTU has sent a letter to Prime Minister John Key articulating serious concerns about both the content and the rushed process the Government has clearly signalled it intends to follow to progress the Countering Terrorist Fighters Legislation...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Job vacancies steady in October
    The number of skilled job vacancies advertised online remained steady in October across most industry groups and occupations, according to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s latest Jobs Online report....
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • 600 Slaves And Counting on New Zealand Soil
    The 2014 Global Slavery Index has just been released, and buried within its pages is New Zealand’s growing issue of human exploitation and slavery. When taken in conjunction with the US State Department’s Trafficking in Persons Report 2014,...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Statement from Police Commissioners of Australia and NZ
    Media Statement from Police Commissioners of Australia and New Zealand: Police Commissioners take a stand against violence against women and children...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • NZ Police Commissioner makes a stand against Family Violence
    New Zealand Police Commissioner Mike Bush has joined with his Australian Police Commissioner colleagues at Parliament House in Canberra this morning to take a stand on violence against women and children....
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Amnesty International campaigns for end to domestic violence
    Amnesty International will be making a donation of over $500 to Aviva (formerly known as Women’s Refuge Christchurch) at the conclusion of Tuesday’s inner city march against domestic violence....
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Waka Hourua celebrates what’s working in suicide prevention
    On 19 and 20 November, Māori and Pasifika national suicide prevention programme Waka Hourua held its first national hui-fono in Auckland. The theme was Whakarauika Mai: Bringing Communities Together to Prevent Suicide in Aotearoa. ...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Domestic violence problem bigger than Sky Tower
    Domestic violence problem bigger than Sky Tower SKYCITY’s Sky Tower in Auckland will be lit up in white on Monday evening Nov 25th at 10pm, on the eve of White Ribbon Day. The anti-domestic violence network SAFTINET (Safer Auckland Families...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • State Services Commissioner ‘unfit for the job’ says Little
    State Services Commissioner ‘unfit for the job’ says Little The new Labour leader Andrew Little has called for the State Services Commissioner Iain Rennie to be stood down after his handling of the Roger Sutton sexual harassment case. "The idea...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Patrick Gower interviews Laila Harre
    Patrick Gower interviews Laila Harre Headlines: Laila Harre to quit as Internet Party leader by Christmas when the party has completed its review, but would love to return to parliament Says party considering options for its future including winding...
    Scoop politics | 22-11
  • Lisa Owen interviews Labour leader Andrew Little
    Lisa Owen interviews Labour leader Andrew Little Headlines: Andrew Little says the shape of his front-bench for the 2017 election may not be clear until the end of next year Indicates next week’s appointments may be temporary: “So I may...
    Scoop politics | 22-11
  • Phillip John Smith – statement
    Police and the New Zealand Embassy in Brasilia are aware of a decision from the Brazil Federal Court requiring the deportation of Phillip Smith within 10 days. Further assessment is required to ensure there is a full understanding of this...
    Scoop politics | 22-11
  • Green’s ‘not speaking out about human rights abuses in China
    Right to Life challenges Russell Norman the co-leader of the Green Party to explain why, he was prepared to ask Prime Minister John Key to talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping about human rights abuses in countries bordering China but...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • Goodfellow congratulates Key on IDU election
    Goodfellow congratulates Key on IDU election National Party President Peter Goodfellow has congratulated Prime Minister John Key on his election today as Chairman of the International Democrat Union (IDU)....
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • Taxpayers’ Union Congratulates PM on IDU Appointment
    The Taxpayers’ Union is today congratulating Rt. Hon. John Key on becoming the Chair of the International Democrat Union , as former Australian Prime Minister John Howard retires from the role after 12 years. Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • High demand for Consumer NZ’s “Do Not Knock” stickers
    Consumer NZ has distributed nearly 100,000 “Do Not Knock” stickers since the launch of its campaign to fight back against dodgy door-to-door sellers.The “Do Not Knock” campaign was launched on 3 November 2014. Free “Do Not Knock” stickers...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • Phillip Smith decision still pending
    Detective Superintendent Mike Pannett is returning to Washington DC where he will continue to closely monitor a pending decision from the Brazilian authorities on the process to return Phillip Smith to New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • High Court demonstration to demand justice
    People outraged at the lack of justice in the so-called ‘Roast Busters’ case and 99% of other rape cases in this country are holding a visually powerful mass action at the Auckland High Court at 1 o’clock on Saturday. They...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • NZ Society Wins Global Award For Fighting Animal Testing
    New Zealand banning animal testing of legal highs has been acknowledged with an award given in London. The New Zealand Anti-Vivisection Society (NZAVS) was awarded the 2014 LUSH Prize for lobbying against animal testing. The prize was given at the...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • Poor govt advice to workers on petrol station drive-offs
    The New Zealand Council of Trade Unions has raised concerns with the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment ('MBIE') regarding their reported advice to workers about the petrol station drive away issue....
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • New Ombudsman opinion
    The Ombudsman has published his opinion on a complaint concerning the Police refusal to release information about a charging decision....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Kindergarten support staff achieve pay rise in tough climate
    The valuable contribution of kindergarten support staff has been recognised with a pay increase, despite the significant funding cuts that the kindergarten associations are experiencing....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Democracy and Conservative Religion: The Case of Islam
    “Is Islam compatible with democracy?” is a frequently-asked question. Recent rethinking of secularism and democracy have opened up new possibilities to think about religion and democracy. This question is important particularly in the case...
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • NZ fiscal watchdog needed to guard the public purse
    New Zealand needs tighter fiscal rules and an independent watchdog to improve the quality of government spending and reduce the risk of a return to deficit spending as the country’s population ages, if not before....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • NZSMI disappointed ANZTPA proposal shelved
    November 20, 2014: Consumer healthcare products industry body, the New Zealand Self-Medication Industry Association (SMI) says it is disappointed Government has once again shelved plans to create one medicines regulatory agency for both New Zealand and Australia....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Democracy Action Welcomes Tauranga Vote
    Responding to Tauranga Council’s unanimous vote not to establish separate Council seats on the basis of ethnicity, Lee Short, Democracy Action founder says: “The establishment of a Maori ward would have damaged the relationship between Maori and...
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Employer caught abusing new ‘teabreaks law’
    Employer caught abusing new ‘teabreaks law’ to exploit workers The government passed the controversial ‘teabreaks’ legislation only a few weeks ago and already Unite Union has caught an employer using this law as an excuse for ill-treating their...
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • FGC response to Commerce Commission report
    The New Zealand Food & Grocery Council is not surprised by the Commerce Commission’s findings, given New Zealand’s current legal framework....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Bascand: Brighter Money
    Seeing people’s initial reactions to the new banknote designs is a heartening reminder of what an important role currency plays in our lives, and what a sense of pride and heritage our notes evoke....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • RBNZ releases Brighter Money designs
    New Zealand’s banknotes are getting brighter and better, with the Reserve Bank today unveiling more vibrant and secure banknote designs which will progressively enter circulation later next year....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • 25 years of children’s rights
    UNICEF and OFC celebrate 25 years of children’s rights with Just Play Sports Days On Universal Children’s Day (20 November) and as part of the Oceania Football Confederation’s (OFC) inaugural President’s Cup, UNICEF will celebrate 25 years of children’s...
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Xiamen delegation to Wellington has business focus
    Stronger business, education and cultural ties with our Chinese partners will be the focus when a 20-strong government and business delegation led by Xiamen Mayor Mr Liu Keqing which visits Wellington tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday as part of the...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Warriors promote White Ribbon Day message
    Warriors promote White Ribbon Day message Shine and Orakei Health Services On Tuesday, the Vodafone Warriors will promote the White Ribbon Day message to the community at Eastridge Shopping Centre, Mission Bay. The Warriors are supporting their charity...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Superannuitants to protest unethical investments
    A delegation of Auckland superannuitants will deliver a protest-card petition and protest letter to the New Zealand Super Fund this Thursday afternoon to call on the fund to divest from companies which support the Israeli occupation of Palestinian...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Manukau job cuts ‘running the place into the ground’
    Manukau Institute of Technology (MIT) confirmed to its staff yesterday that 54 jobs will go before Christmas....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Newcore Looks Pretty Rotten for Ratepayers
    Responding to the NZ Herald report that the IT system commissioned by Auckland Council to consolidate the eight systems the Super City inherited from its precursor councils could be facing a budget blowout of $100 million, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman Ben...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Accountability following quake response inquiry not achieved
    Lessons still need to be learned from the search and rescue efforts following the February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, a leading New Zealand lawyer, Nigel Hampton QC, says....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Our kids say: We are failing in our duty to protect them
    Our kids say: We are failing in our duty to protect them More than a quarter of Kiwi kids say children’s right to be safe and protected isn’t being upheld in New Zealand, identifying protection from violence, abuse and murder...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • PARS & Turuki Health Care collaborate on health and services
    Auckland-based PARS (People at Risk Solutions) have partnered with the Turuki Health Care Trust, to offer improved healthcare services to those in need. PARS works closely with former prisoners, providing mentoring, housing, and social services to ensure...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Children’s Plea
    A plea has been sent to all Members of Parliament, regardless of party affiliation, to accord urgency and priority to children's issues. These issues include vulnerability, safety and childhood poverty....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Treasury off track in search for sound policies
    Treasury is unlikely to find the ideas it is looking for to improve outcomes for children while its primary driver is cost-cutting, says Child Poverty Action Group....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Commission calls for answers on handling of CERA harassment
    EEO Commissioner Dr Jackie Blue is deeply concerned about the way in which the State Services Commission has handled sexual allegations made against CERA chief executive Roger Sutton this week and is calling for answers....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Ashley Dwayne Guy v The Queen: Appeal Upheld
    The appellant, Mr Guy, was found guilty by a jury of a charge of sexual violation by unlawful sexual connection. After the verdict it was discovered that, by error, the jury had been provided in the jury room with two...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Zonta Club to Take a Stand Against Gender-Based Violence
    During the 16 Days of Activism against Gender Violence (25 November – 10 December), the Zonta Club of Wellington, along with members of the local community, will join nearly 1,200 Zonta clubs in 67 countries for the Zonta Says NO...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • New UNFPA report links progress and power to young people
    A UN report launched today calls for investment in young people as they are essential to social and economic progress....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • The Resignation with the Golden Handshake?
    Commenting on the settlement the State Services Commission has reached with former CERA CEO Roger Sutton, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director, Jordan Williams, says: "Only in the public sector do you receive a payout for ‘resigning’....
    Scoop politics | 18-11
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