web analytics
The Standard
Advertising

A big gap to close

Written By: - Date published: 9:12 pm, May 23rd, 2011 - 28 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll is not good reading for the political left.

Support for the government is at 57.5% (up 1.5%):
National Party 53% (up 0.5%)
Maori Party 2% (unchanged)
ACT NZ 2% (up 1%)
United Future 0.5% (unchanged)

Support for opposition parties is at 42.5% (down 1.5%)
Labour Party 28% (down 3%)
Greens 10% (up 2.5%)
New Zealand First 3% (down 1.5%)
Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged)
Others 1% (up 0.5%)

On the Right, it’s interesting that this result completely discounts the dodgy Horizon “poll” that showed a big jump for ACT after the Brash take over. ACT are still languishing well below the 5% threshold, which has to be good news. The Mana Party is not yet included in the poll, so its potential impact on the Maori Party is still hard to assess. But in both cases National may be scratching for coalition partners.

On the left, while probably within margin of error, the loss from Labour seems to have gone to the Greens. But there’s no denying the 28% is bad news for Labour! Now is the time for the gap with National to start closing, thanks, not getting wider.

However, this poll reflects data collected to 15 May, so does not include either response to the sub-zero budget, or the first hints of Labour’s policy as revealed during the weekend Conference. With plenty of cracks now in Key’s armour, and the Nats’ total lack of ideas so thoroughly exposed by the budget, I still believe that the Left can and will win the November election. But, it’s a big gap to close.

28 comments on “A big gap to close”

  1. How come during every election year there are constant polls that show the Greens at 10%, and they normally end up getting 5.3-5.4% of the vote in the actual numbers.

    Seriously Rob, you actually think labour can win unless there is a major and I mean major scandal, national are a shoo in.

    • Jono 1.1

      Because a fair bit of the Green (& to a small extent, Labour) vote is made up of people who are less likely to go to the polls than the rest of the population, young people/students etc. That & i think all small parties vote share probably goes down a little bit on election day as opposed to polls because they’ve got less resources to identify and contact their supporters & then. help get them to the polls.

      But yeah, this poll is a bit of a bummer. I wish they’d stop asking if people will vote for the progressive though, given that Anderton isn’t standing at the election..

      • Lanthanide 1.1.1

        “given that Anderton isn’t standing at the election..”
         
        Have you got a confirmed quote on that? I see that it is often the presumption, but I’ve never actually seen it stated anywhere in the media. Before the 2008 election, he said that if he was elected, he would stay for the whole term regardless of whether Labour formed the government (and this was why he initially ran as a ‘part-time’ mayor in 2010). It’s wise to assume from that statement, that he’ll stand down from parliament. But as far as I know he hasn’t actually announced that that is what he’s doing. It’s also probable that back in 2007-2008 he was eyeing up a shot at the mayoralty anyway, but since he didn’t win, his ideas may have changed.

    • Ari 1.2

      The Greens tend to overpoll for the same reasons they tend to be well-represented in special votes: Green supporters as a whole are just far more interested and active than the general population among people likely to be polled, and thus more likely to answer surveys or polling questions. It’s also the issue that it’s hard to get an accurate read on a party that’s not polling a significant amount of the electorate, too, and there are issues with youth turnout on election day, and the possibility that people want to want to be Green more than they actually want to be Green.

      • Alwyn 1.2.1

        I don’t think it’s that people “want to be Green” but that they think that they look better if they are seen to be Green. They will reply to a poll by trying to appear to be liberally minded and what they think is socially respectable and responsible. It works even though they have never met, and almost certainly never will meet the person doing the questioning
        In the polling booth however, where no one can see them, they revert to reality and vote their pocket-book. That’s why the actual Green party vote is only about two thirds of their poll figures just before and just after an election.
        The same effect shows up when people are asked about charitable donations. I can’t find an on-line reference but the number of, and value of, charitable donations people claim to make vastly exceeds the real values that are given.
        I think the Green party will, as usual, get about two-thirds of their polling figures. If their poll numbers drop below 7% they will be sweating.

    • Armchair Critic 1.3

      You’re sort of right, Brett, Labour won’t win the election. Everyone knows elections in NZ are lost, not won. If National keep doing what they are doing, and if Labour get their shit together, National will lose the election.
      The unknown variable is Labour getting their shit together.
      And six months is a long time.

  2. gobsmacked 2

    As Rob says, this poll is not about the Budget. It’s probably not even about policy.

    Part of it may be Key’s photo-op wedding, but I suspect there’s also the “Hodgson Effect.” If Labour want non-issues like the DPS to be their line of attack, then they’re askng not to be taken seriously. The Greens have avoided going down that path, and have deservedly picked up support from Labour.

    Fortunately, Labour have (post-Budget) now decided to focus on policy, policy, policy. That was always the smarter thing to do, and pretty much everyone who supports Labour understood this, except – unfortunately – some deluded fools in the Labour caucus. Let’s hope even they now get the message. Attack Key on substance. God knows, there’s enough opportunities there.

    TV One are polling this week, so I expect you’ll see a different result on Sunday – provided Labour can just stick to their knitting for a week. And then keep doing it, for six months.

  3. Jim Nald 3

    A landline for pollsters to phone me: nice to have

  4. Peter 4

    Goff has the luxury of taking some risks. Mind you are believe elections are lost by the incumbent not won by the opposition.

  5. ak 5

    Ashly r0b, I think it’s the lovliest poll I’ve seen since Jim Bolger mused that apartheid might be a good system. This is the judgement day poll for Brash and his puppeteers: the poll that tells us that racist dogwhistling is no longer a political tool for the Right. A Golden day for progression.

    And aye, 28% looks ugly, but remember those three little words: Em em pee. And consider that the ACTorrhoids will shrivel back up home without another blatant electoral rort (which is looking more and more unacceptable – and that if it’s mooted, Labour should do the same for Winnie) and that the Maori Party will never (and never would have) enable a NAT-led government.

    That leaves the gap around 10% – a mere one-in-twenty to swing – all totally dependent on a single, vulnerable individual. Whose reaction to real pressure will be revealing, if not spectacular.

    And now the king issue of selling our golden geese is confirmed. Hammering Asset Sales and hard work on the street for a big turnout could do it: ignore the media, churn out those leaflets, chuck in a massive native-tree planting programme and a continuous coastal Queen’s Chain and we’re home.

    • Gus 5.1

      At this stage of the game I wouldn’t count on that ak. To date apart from the take over and Brash’s letter to Key there hasn’t really been a lot of coverage of ACT. I don’t recall even seeing any press statements following the budget.

      I suspect that they’re still re-organising following their coup however once that is complete and they start campaigning that you will see a lot more dog whistling. Personally I won’t be surprised if Act end up around 5-7% especially if Mana start to get any traction as you will see White/middle class voters look to Act at some sort of counter to the “scary maori” vote.

  6. ZeeBop 6

    Its the farmers have to export and we if that means child poverty so be it.

    The MSM framing today.

    Farmers can’t afford the ETS, well some will, the ones who put the
    effort in to secure NZ as the low carbon farm producer of the 21st.

    Crafer is held up as the ‘whole industry’, its not. Crafer was the biggest
    debtor there was, having brought countless farms leveraging debt.

    Now I don’t care if a few more farms go to the wall, its not like
    we haven’t defaulted home owned. There’s always some pain, and
    it should be the individuals, and farms, that have the most debt
    exposure. Duh.

    Anyway when did it become the newsspeak media job to slam the
    opposition party as putting the whole of the farming industry in
    jeopardy because Labour wanted to invest the money in paying
    citizens a living wage?

    Obviously we should not be running the country from what the
    farmers say, or a few might hurt more in the pocket. If it
    costs to much to make milk then there’s lots of other stuff
    to grow or breed.

    Its astonishing that our media believe that we think we can’t have
    both good farm profits and also high wages. Of course we can.
    The people who will hurt won’t be the farmers, it will be
    the speculative capital gains farmers and their currency trader cohort.

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      If farming is that uneconomic, the farmers should leave the land.

      There are plenty of other NZ’ers who will be happy to take their farms over, don’t they know.

      What a bunch of Farmers Union crock.

  7. Well fuck it.

    I am going to proceed on the sound factual basis that this Government is terrible for ordinary kiwis and that if kiwis have enough information they will realised that they are being screwed.

    And I am going to question the accuracy of the polls on the basis that many of the poor people that I know do not have landlines and are not polled and the only poor people who do have landlines are elderly and more conservative.

    And I will be reinforced in my view by the many people that I have spoken to who admit voting National but realise that they made a mistake and will now vote Labour/Green. 

    And I am going to continue to provide information and campaign and talk to people and show them what is actually happening.

    And I am going to hope that not enough people are going to be sucked into the superficial irrelevant contrived presentation of what is happening that is provided by MSM.

    And on election night I will relish watching John Key say “bugger the polls” or I will fear for my country.

  8. Sookie 8

    I know the people of Epsom obviously aren’t very bright, because they dutifully voted for the Dancing Orc, but John Banks? He’s a grumpy old man, been around forever, and got his arse kicked in the Auckland elections. Is there a chance they’ll all go ‘meh’ and vote National? And though I don’t hope for Labour to gain 10 points in six months, I’d love to see the Maori Party wiped off the face of the earth by Mana and a Labour resurgence. Then the Nat’s would be screwed.

  9. Olwyn 9

    What you say is heartening mickeysavage: after watching the TV3 news and seeing the poll result on line my only thought was “Where in the hell am I living?” Zeebop has mentioned the farmers who claim to be unable to afford ETS,. TV3 concentrated on a female farmer with what she called a small holding who said she would probably have to sell up if this came to pass. Next were a bunch of businessman who claimed that they would not be able to afford to pay a minimum wage of $15 per hour. Then the poll, and all I could think was “What the…”

    What’s with people who are doing OK themselves thinking that others ought to be made to make do with subhuman circumstances?

    What’s with so many people in a low-wage, failing economy, where many are losing their jobs, saying “I’m going to vote for the Tories” when the pollster calls?

    I just don’t get it.

  10. Afewknowthetruth 10

    Those who wish to see the back of National seem to have forgotten that the economy will suddenly start to come right about 3 months before the election (whatever the actual data indicates), enabling the government to promise tax cuts if re-elected. It happens with boring regularity every election cycle.

    Politics has nothing to do with managing the economy or protecting the environment. Politics is all about managing the livestock.

  11. tc 11

    Yup it’s sure easy to manage the livestock with able shepherds and drovers like Granny, TVNZild, a toothless RNZ etc and some of the most low brow dog whistling endless stream of ‘pundits’ like coddington/woodham/holmes/laws etc

    It’s clever not specifying the billions in cuts, after your mates in the MSM have generally not bothered chasing you for that pesky detail, come time to vote the swinging middle ground will wonder what all the fuss was about….. the ‘it didn’t target me anyway…..or did it?’

    Labour can win but it’s (yes you phildo) got to go against type, get visceral, stop lecturing and sloganise and put some controlled agression into it, isn’t that what true believers do…..jeez it’s not like there’s a lack of f’n material.

    Like I’m gutted to be funding the clown it cuts both ways to fund an opposition leader not prepared to do what it takes…..come on phildo it’s your only shot at it buddy, do you want it enough ?

  12. logie97 12

    Don’t know much about polls. Do know a little bit about canteen and sporting and social club bar conversations. And I have heard surprising comments from people who 6 months ago were firmly in the Key camp. The budget for one has not been well received. The “trust” and respect for politicians of the right has been truly tainted by this one, mainly around the cynical “after the election” measures. The suggestions are that if the debt is so bad, you would try to take immediate action and not delay your medicine for a year. I suspect that the percentage of “no comments” might grow markedly in the next one.

  13. Colonial Viper 13

    The Left must give its support a reason to turn out.

    80% of New Zealanders earn less than $60,000 p.a. and they are getting kicked in the teeth over and over again by NAC.

    Give them no excuse to stay indoors November 26.

  14. gobsmacked 14

    Just to repeat … all the polling for this one was before the Budget. Starting 3 weeks ago, in fact.

  15. Oleolebiscuitbarrel 15

    I started reading this blog in 2007. Pretty early on there was a poll that was unfavorable to the Left. Everyone agreed that the poll was rogue. Or didn’t take into account certain crucial recent events. Or that people would wake up at any moment.

    No change then.

    • Craig Glen Eden 15.1

      Well what has changed is Keys little MSM chorus squad is starting to go dirty on him.Key can only bullshit for so long and the facts are now starting to mount against the smile and wave pre- rehearsed lines.
      Also what I hear is people on the street are realizing the really rich have got richer and everyone else is struggling. Sooner or latter the worm will turn and six months is time enough the question is can Phil make it happen.

  16. outofbed 16

    Goff!

  17. Terry 17

    New Zealand is at the bottom of the world. Now New Zealand IS the bottom of the world, deservedly so. Voters appear to take pride in the all-time high and massive deficit and the staggering levels of borrowing. Key has only one thing going for him, that he manages affairs of the country just finely enough not to hurt the huge and well-off middle-classes. But he is sailing close to the wind! How many are delighted by the prospect of yet more asset sales? It is regrettably likely to be a long time before they finally wake up to Muldoon Model No. 2. (but worse).
    Our selfish voters ought to hang their heads in shame. Utterly self-preoccupied and frighteningly insensitive to those slogging through hard times.

Links to post

Important links

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

1 2 3 7

  • Time for NZ to prohibit the killing of great apes
    That ban was widely hailed, and spurred efforts in other countries to get similar bans. However, apes are still being exploited, abused and killed, both in captivity and in the wild. Examples of cruelty, neglect and abuse abound. Apes are… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    1 day ago
  • Auckland building consents: Tragic
    The only word to describe the latest building consent figures for Auckland is ‘tragic’, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Whatever the Government is doing to address the Auckland housing crisis, it is clearly not working. ...
    1 day ago
  • A whiff of a new biosecurity scandal?
    A pest which could create havoc for New Zealand’s horticulture and agriculture sector must be as much a focus for the Government as hunting out fruit flies, Labour’s Biosecurity spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “While the Ministry for Primary Industries is… ...
    1 day ago
  • Government shrugs off health sector crisis
    Despite new evidence showing that cuts to health spending are costing lives the Government continues to deny the sector is struggling, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “Health services in New Zealand are in crisis. ...
    2 days ago
  • Parata lowered the bar for failing charter school
    When Hekia Parata became aware that the Whangaruru charter school was experiencing major problems her first action was to drop standards by reducing the number of qualified teachers they had to employ, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins has revealed. “Hekia… ...
    2 days ago
  • National not being straight about the economy
    John Key and Bill English need to be straight with New Zealanders about the damage their failure to diversify the economy is doing, after new figures show export growth plunged due to a collapse in dairy exports, says Grant Robertson.… ...
    2 days ago
  • Mind the Gap
    This week the International Monetary Fund released a report on the wider economic value in closing the gender pay gap. When even the bastions of free-market economics start to raise concerns about gender pay gaps, we have to realise how… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    2 days ago
  • Labour will hold National to parental leave promise
    Labour will hold National to its promise to increase the support given to new parents of premature, multiple birth and babies born with disabilities, Labour’s paid parental leave campaigner Sue Moroney says. "I am naturally disappointed that after battling for… ...
    3 days ago
  • It was all just pillar talk
    Steven Joyce’s confession that he can no longer guarantee a pillar-free design for the New Zealand International Convention Centre shows the Government has abandoned its dream of creating an ‘iconic’ ‘world-class’ structure, says Labour Economic Development spokesperson David Clark. “Steven… ...
    3 days ago
  • Australians move on offshore speculators
    John Key might want to have a quiet word with Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott about Canberra's just-announced crack down on offshore speculators when he visits New Zealand this week, Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says."Tony Abbott's centre right government… ...
    3 days ago
  • Government at odds on overseas driver crashes
    National backbencher Jacqui Dean has spoken out about overseas driver crashes, putting herself at odds with Prime Minister John Key who is on record as saying it’s not a big issue, Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “I’m not surprised… ...
    3 days ago
  • Human Rights and the Palestine Crisis
    Last week I heard two Palestinians speak at Wellington events about the ongoing crisis in their country. Samar Sabawi spoke to a full house about the history of Palestine and gave us a lucid and disturbing account of the situation… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    3 days ago
  • Time to take real care of our kids
    An Amnesty International report has once again criticised New Zealand’s track record on looking after our kids, Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. The annual report, which looks at global human rights abuses highlights not only the fact that high… ...
    3 days ago
  • John Key wrong about Labour’s war vote
    John Key’s desperate claims that the former Labour Government didn’t put combat troop deployment to a Parliamentary vote are simply wrong, Labour’s Defence spokesperson Phil Goff says. “It was disgraceful that the Prime Minister ran rough shod over democracy and… ...
    3 days ago
  • Māori language bill needs work
     It is clear that the first draft of the Māori Language Bill was about structures and funding rather than the survival of te reo Māori, Labour’s Māori Development Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says.  “Labour is pleased that the Minister of Māori… ...
    3 days ago
  • Report proves troubled school shouldn’t have opened
    The long-awaited release of an Education Review Office report into Northland’s troubled Whangaruru charter school proves it should never have been approved in the first place, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “This report identifies problems with absenteeism and disengaged… ...
    4 days ago
  • Reply to PM’s statement on deploying troops to Iraq
    “The decision of any Government to send troops to a conflict zone is a very serious one, and it is right that this House takes time to consider it, to debate it, and, ideally, to vote on it, but we… ...
    4 days ago
  • Minister must take action on death trap slides
    Workplace Relations Safety Minister Michael Woodhouse must take urgent action to ensure inflatable amusement rides don’t become death traps for children, Labour’s spokesperson on Labour Relations Iain Lees-Galloway says. “No one wants to stop kids having fun, but horror stories… ...
    4 days ago
  • Manus Island and the New Zealand Government
    This week the Greens have participated in awareness activity about Manus Island, the refugee camp on an island in Papua New Guinea where Australia dumps asylum seekers. John Key says that he has every confidence in the Australian Government’s claim… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    1 week ago
  • Election Inquiry – Getting accessible voting on the agenda
    James Shaw has been doing a series of blogs on the Election Inquiry into last year’s general election.  I thought this was a great opportunity to raise an issue very dear to me – accessible voting. Last year’s general election… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    1 week ago
  • RMA changes no solution to Christchurch housing
    Housing will continue to be a big issue in 2015. The latest Consumer Price Index, released last month, shows both good news and bad news on the housing front. After years of being the most expensive place to build a… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    1 week ago
  • Saving kokako in South Auckland’s Hunua Ranges
    It is amazing that you can hear the song of the endangered North Island kokako in South Auckland’s Hunua Ranges, less than 50 kms from the central city. A heavy schedule of policy workshops at the Green Party’s Policy… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Let’s not turn a blind eye to human rights
    The Cricket World Cup has just opened in New Zealand, and it’s an opportunity for us to shine on the world stage. International sport can be a chance for us to build relationships with other countries, and examine what it… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Its Just Not Cricket
    This week it was my privilege to work with Sri Lankan Tamil communities in this country and host Australian journalist and human rights advocate Trevor Grant. I knew a bit about Trevor from his biography but I didn’t know just… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Time for NZ to #BeCrueltyFree
    The Government is about to progress the final stages of the Animal Welfare Amendment bill. This will be our last opportunity to get changes made to improve the bill to ensure a better outcome for animals. I have put forwards… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    2 weeks ago
  • We want access!
    Access to buildings is a big issue for many New Zealanders. It looks like that, due to the hard work and persistence of people in the disability community, the Government may finally be starting to take access to buildings seriously.… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Greens call on Super Fund to divest from fossil fuels
    The Green Party today called on the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (the Fund) to divest from fossil fuels, starting immediately with coal. The call was accompanied with a new report, Making money from a climate catastrophe: The case for divesting… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Young Kiwis’ housing crisis
    Shelter is a fundamental human need along with food, water and clean air. All humans need adequate shelter; it’s a human right. Warm, safe, stable accommodation is critical for young people to be able learn and grow and just be.… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    2 weeks ago
  • On the River Patrol in Te Tai Tokerau
    Last Wednesday, I went on a tour of some of Northland’s rivers with  Millan Ruka from Environmental River Patrol as he monitored water quality throughout Te Tai Tokerau. The dry conditions meant we couldn’t use the boat but we visited… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Opening of Parliament 2015
    Russel NormanOpening of Parliament Speech February 2015 Tēnā koutou Tēnā koutou Tēnā koutou katoa. A brief history of climate change What a summer! It's been hot, even here in Wellington, hotter than any summer I can remember. All… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    3 weeks ago

Removed at the request of The Daily Blog.
Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere