Written By: - Date published: 4:50 pm, December 21st, 2007 - 45 comments
Categories: humour, labour, national -
Tags: humour, labour, national
I have glimpsed the future. I know how Election 08 will play out. It will be a thriller, going down to the wire. The election home straight, like that at Flemington in Melbourne, is a test of champions. In the end it is about class and staying ability. Helen Clark starts the year well off the pace. John Key canters along in front. Slowly but surely, however, Clark gathers him in. Key starts to feel the pressure. He races greenly, pulls hard at the bit, showing his lack of experience, stamina and preparation. Right on the line, Clark appears to nab him. The result is not clear and there is an anxious delay. But after what seems an inordinate amount of time, the numbers are confirmed. Clark has made it, by a short neck – known as a Hide. The Green stable belies their odds and feature strongly in the finish. The old brumbie Turry’s Fury has also rattled home gamely. They’ve helped the Labour thoroughbred to her fourth successive title. Winston’s Way crumbles in the run home and is immediately transferred to the knacker’s yard. The roaring of the crowd drowns the wailing of the hollow men.
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And John keys “owners” buy a new horse for next time
You are wrong.
I’ve been talking to the people of eastern Wellington and they are sick of Labour.
I’ve talked to many folk who normally vote Labour who have said they want to get ride of this government.
Helen Clark will lose.
The result is correct: the style is wrong. Helen Clark and her team will roar past as Kiwi did in the Cup, because Labour has a philosophy and a sense of community. People will not vote for a party that has no policies, and relies on expensive billboards.
Go Helen! $100 on the nose!
whoah there EWS, i know superheroes aren’t known for their sense of levity but Tillerman’s piece isn’t intended as reportage, even by the Herald’s standard (hint, read the opening sentence).
but feel free to keep talking to your “people and “folk”, they’re probably very grounding for you.
Labour are the underdogs, but the playing field is level. I’ll take them odds.
me too r0b. but i’m glad the Blues feel like they’re in the race this time.
Indeed sprout, you could even say that they’re feeling their oats a bit…
true. and colic soon to follow.
You guys should share some of the Jamaican Gold you seem to be smoking. Or is it Colombian Red Crest?
Barring a miracle (touch wood) the socialist Labour Party is on its way out.
On it’s way out to parrrrrty! Jah mon!
Good Xmas loot has been coming thru the gate, including a bottle of “vintage Bollie”.
This will be kept at a constant temperature then chilled nicley to celebrate the long long reign of John Key in about October 2008. For my socialist ex labour supporter fireman friend I have a bottle of Meths bought for $3.99 at Pak’n'save.
Ahhhh – i will savour and enjoy the long awaited Chanpagne. Nine years has been to long to wait.
Heard the saying “You can’t flog a dead horse”?
“enjoy the long awaited Chanpagne”
Monty, is that some kind of anti-freeze?
Monti & Santi The polls left vs right are neck and neck.
Lets debate some National policy and we will see a shift and it won’t bet to the right.
So put the Anti freeze on ice and open a bottle of champagne now!!and celebrate Nationals High poll rating while you have the chance
19 points is the sort of lead that gives me comfort when the socialists (spit the filthy mongrols) were desperate for parity in the polls in the lead to Christmas. Hardly wat I would call neck and neck. I am sure Helen in her desperation would be wanting the polls to be much closer.
Now I will sit back and watch the fun as Winston (on cue) goes feral against Labour as he tries to dis-associate himeself from them and as he tries (in vain) to seek out the role of Kingmaker come post election 2008. Nothing will save his sorry arse this time around.
Also – I note my earlier spelling mistake – I am as bad as Jimmy Sleep – But I can blame the rotten 1970′s catholic education system for not beating me enough for not knowing my spelling.
monty do you understand mmp ?
But I can blame the rotten 1970′s catholic education system for not beating me enough for not knowing my spelling.
But you can thank them for you having the decency to feel guilty about it. There’s hope for you yet.
Zen – 10 Hail Marys.
I’d like to wish everyone on here a Merry Xmas. Especially our visitors from the right. Have a good one, guys, because at the next one you’ll be raising a glass to Helen’s 4th term, or bitterly railing against John Key for his year of U-turns and the new vanilla government.
The Sydney Morning Herald has an interesting perspective on this, featuring our own David Farrar, who quietly admits that the voters don’t actually support National policies!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/right-has-no-idea-in-left-world/2007/12/21/1198175341998.html
nice find gs
that’s a nice quote uncky dave in the SMH Uncky Dave, looking forward to using it lots:
“His strategy is ‘don’t rock the boat’,” says David Farrar, a popular conservative blogger who has worked for four Nationals prime ministers and opposition leaders.
“A year ago he tried to shut down traditional areas of controversy – nuclear ship visits and climate change, for example. The Nationals have been ahead in every poll this year and they are likely to win the next election” – due by next November – “but that’s because Labor is old and tired and not because of any upswelling of support for the Nationals’ agenda.”
Hey G,
I think it’s a little early for either side to be acting smug about Chistmas ’08, dont you think?
The SMH does raise a good point though… internationally, all the things ‘we’ wanted to do post-80′s – essentially producing a country more responsive and capabale of dealing with international ‘shocks’ – the right has done already.
On the other hand, whats left for the left?
When you’ve got an economy ticking along nicely (as we are appear to be at the moment) it must be a hard sell convincing the public that there are social ill’s that need state-assisted fixing.
Exactly Phil! Why change when the economy is going so well. The SMH article will no doubt be dissected by many, but the reality is Rudd got in on policies Labour has pushed here for three terms. No wonder David Farrar and co are worried.
you’ll have to do a lot better than that phil. you get Whittacker’s chocolate for christmas too?
Thanks gobbo – top find. When even the top tory muckraker is agreeing with what we’ve been saying for months, it’s worth reprinting:
Farrar: The Nationals have been ahead in every poll this year and they are likely to win the next election” – due by next November – “but that’s because Labor is old and tired and not because of any upswelling of support for the Nationals’ agenda.”
As usual, Fukuyama’s spot on in his global analysis. Poor wee NZ led the charge into the minor dark age of the nineties (thanks to the incredible blatant subterfuge and betrayal of Douglas, Prebble et al) and instead of the promised “Switzerland of the South Pacific”….well, suffice to say we’re still recovering.
Labour’s done a good job of carefully rebuilding; no further evidence of their success is needed than the fact that their opponents have comprehensively embraced all their efforts – so much so, that the danger for Labour now is that the “Key factor” will outflank them on the left (nb “underclass” speech and current low-key (pun intended)overtures to Maori).
The challenge now, as so well identified by Downer, is to ignore the past year’s stumbles and artificial reactionary baying, build on the record to date, and provide a bold visionary programme to further reduce inequalities – again leading the world by nurturing the innate optimism and common sense tradition that has built our proud nation.
It’s a golden opportunity for us all and I pray that Helen’s up to it after a tough year. At the very least, the true tory agenda will be revealed: National’s hyenas will not endure much more “me too”.
Read the skies, Labour, Greens and Maori: when the smiling snake embaces, lead your people towards the light.
nicely put ak
Dan said “..but the reality is Rudd got in on policies Labour has pushed here for three terms.”
Does that include tax cuts and not overtaxing the populace, even those socialist Labour claims to represent? Bollocks!
Dan,
Why change when the economy is doing so well?
Well, the PERCEPTION is that the benefits of the last few years growth have been disproportionately reaped by the government – hence the shift toward National in the provincal areas last election, and the positive response they got to tax cuts.
Sprout,
National isn’t going to be the only one-trick-pony in the next election. Outside of environmental issues (which pulls the rug right out from under the Greens) Labour is looking like it’s “playing it again, Sam”
If, and I conceed its a great big IF-with-cheeries-and-whipped-cream-on-top, National makes legitimate and real concessions on the environment, Labour has nowhere to go that voters will respond to.
play with your Reindeer santi, they love you
ak,
I like the use of you phrase “minor dark age of the nineties” – very evocative but totally misleading.
I content that the miserable state we were in pre-reforms would have led to a much worse nineties than the one we got. We were in such a hopeless position that it got to the point where the credit cards of our foreign diplomats were nearly called upon to help bail out our currency.
Remember also that these painful reforms were voted for by the public! When the traditional left element wrestled back power from the economic bloc of Labour between 87 and 90, they were convincingly trounced by the Nat’s at the next election, and failed to return to power for a decade.
That, by my reconing, is hardly a howl of public disapproval for those policy platfroms.
Gobsmacked, the only comparison between the Howard and Clark govts is longevity. Clark’s govt is as old and worn out as Howard’s and the only policies they can come up with are highly unpopular (anti-smacking and EFB).
The EFB marks the end of the Labour govt. Key doesn’t have to do anything.
A govt is seldom voted in, they are usually voted out. Also, there is more to govt than ideology or policy. The govt is responsible for day to day running of the country and things which pop up unannounced. Sometimes it is better not to have too many pre-conceived ideas. As a person Key has a large potential popularity base. Coming from a state house, a large proportion of the electorate can identify with him.
The only decision we as the electorate have to make is whether or not to give Key a working majority, or require him to negotiate through the Maori Party or Act. My bet is that it will be the Maori Party.
I am glad that the left is so remarkably upbeat
When all said and done the Nats are still the same team as they were under Brash, Same people same ideas same agenda.
Its one thing to register your disapproval with the Gov when some pollster rings you up at tea time
but quite another to actually tick National.
When push come to shove I think we can be quietly confident of centre/left Gov for the foreseeable future
Phil: “…these painful reforms were voted for by the public!”
Nah Phil, 90 and 93 were payback for the Douglas gang betrayal and Bolger “Keyed” the sentiment nicely. In 96 Winnie pulled another Doug/Preb betrayal. The last three elections are payback for the ACT/BRT agenda that National carried on with.
But hey, if you’re right, and privatisation and “trickle down” are so well supported by the public, why won’t National put ‘em up right up there? Seems even tory strategists know that the only way to import this recycled trash is by stealth.
Kent: “My bet is that it will be the Maori Party.” Heh heh. The One Law for All/Abolish Maori Seats Smiling Snake party supported by their victims. Talk about wishful thinking – would love to have a wee flutter on that one Kent!
If you listen closely to Pita Sharples, you can hear some “blue” in him.
The risk in that combination all falls on the Maori party side. National wouldn’t have anything to lose, assuming they had backing from ACT and UFNZ if push came to shove.
For the Maori party, they would be a shoe-in for Maori and PI portfolios plus maybe another and some associate roles, which they are never in a million years going to get under Labour. They would have the opportunity to work as a moderating influence on policy, rather than as an extreemist (or at least viewed as extreemist) position.
MMP around the planet is filled with examples of this kind of working coalition. I think it would be an interesting experiment, at the very least.
Pita Sharples blue!! Get a life!
Along with the tax cuts proposed by all parties, the biggest move will be a capital gains tax on speculative investment. It will make houses more affordable and reduce inflation. It will be the point of difference that Labour needs to defuse the rantings of the right.