What a bizarre week of polls. The Fairfax poll and the Roy Morgan polls both showed swings from National to Labour. The TVNZ poll and the TV3 poll did not. Make of that what you will (but keep in mind Bomber’s critique of the TVNZ polling record). The TVNZ piece states that Key has “never been so popular” (on 59% as preferred PM), so congratulations to him, he has equalled Helen Clark’s peak rating at last. Now if only he was half as competent.
Just in passing, someone at TV3 really needs a bit of a smacking over their sloppy writing. The TV3 poll linked above is titled Latest 3 News poll shows Nat’s support doubled, which it certainly does not (it shows it has double Labour’s support, which is bad enough!). It states that “The poll differs greatly to one released by TVNZ’s Marae Investigates earlier today”, and links to this second piece:
Labour most popular party in new poll
Labour leader Phil Goff will be clinging to the unexpected results of a new poll in which his party has picked up twice as much support as National.
But he is well behind John Key in the preferred prime minister stakes, according to the TVNZ Marae Investigates Digipoll, released today.
Labour’s on 38.4 percent support in the poll, followed by the Maori Party on 22.2 percent, while National’s on just 16.4 percent.
That is in stark contrast to other media polls, which put National above 50 percent support, with Labour rating at 30 percent or less, and the Maori Party on around one percent support.
I wonder if they should have mentioned that the Marae Digipoll polls Maori voters (on the general and Maori rolls) only? Sheesh. A good analysis of this poll can be found on Stuff. Interesting to see that Mana is on 8.5%, mostly at the expense of the Maori Party.