Written By: - Date published: 1:26 pm, October 31st, 2008 - 64 comments
Categories: articles, election 2008, polls -
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In her blog column Teresa Arseneau discusses the polls overall, and what happens if the largest party doesn’t form the government:
Several of these polls suggest that while National is likely to “win” the election – receive both the most votes and seats – it may not govern….But in an MMP election it is important to think in terms of party-blocs. And the source of a vote gain is as important as the gain itself. In the 2005 election, National grew its vote mainly at the expense of its potential partners – Act, UnitedFuture and New Zealand First – thus consolidating the centre-right vote. This partly explains why National’s support is now so large and why its potential coalition partners’ so small.
It is misleading then to simply compare the support of National and Labour. A more accurate picture is gained by looking at the relative support for potential governing blocs….The election is finely balanced between the two blocs.
The next week is crucial: one in four voters is still likely undecided. And support for the two blocs is so finely balanced that changes of less than 1% to each party’s vote, changes much smaller than the margin of error, could significantly alter the outcome of the election.
This time next week we’ll be into the final moments – and then it’s up to the voter. Centre right or Centre left?
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Scoopit!
DPF just posted footage of Helen tripping over yesterday. What an A##hole.
Nothing new actually. Nice middle ground rather than dispute her employers position re the infamous Espiner Poll.
Espiner poll?
Is there a name for people who like to see women fall over so that they can look up their dresses?
yeah creeps
DPF just posted footage of Helen tripping over yesterday. What an A##hole.
Farrarcical.
On topic – it’s been clear for some time that the credible polls have been signaling this as a likely outcome. I hope that NZ can come to see that “time for a change” is an empty motto. If the focus goes on to policies and the credibility of the policies, then the left bloc will be forming the next government.
epsinner poll read chris trotter in this mornings dompost
comissioned by TV! so they can define for themselves and the natoinal party the nature of democracy
if I mention the name of the originator of these tactics then this post will be moderated
get the picture
anyway with no challenge to their authority and their methods teevee1 is getting creepeier and creepier
Here’s a link to what randal’s talking about: TVNZ’s attack on democracy
In my opinion the vast bulk of Nzers want a party of the centre in control of the next government.
That is only likely to happen with a strong Labour or strong National government.
Just my tuppence worth.
Of course she has probably changed her opinion given the desperation and gutter politics displayed by Labout this week. The general feeling is that Labour Neutron Bomb has completely backfired and blown up in your silly and desperate faces.
Also the country will want good solid and strong leadership to guide us through the stormy policital waters ahead – and who better to do that than a man who has worked and understands international finance.
I think you will be surprised at how hated Labour really is and next Sunday morniing you will be crying into your Hubbards at the strength of the defeat you are about to face.
is colin and gayon related?
Randal: Consider this. If National gets the biggest single vote John Key can command Winston to join him and National, to get an absolute majority to rule. Wot fun!
“Labour Neutron Bomb…” my arse.
it’s pretty obvious the Herald was engaging in innoculation to defend National. nice to see they’re returning to a slightly higher level of sophistication in their propaganda at long last, since Ellis left they’ve been pretty meat-ball in their attempts to shape public opinion.
and i expect the ‘tipster’ was engaging in a bit of this
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Jewish_lightning
for National too, trying to make out Nasty Labour was being mean to the innocent. National are quite good at that, then labelling anyone who springs them as a “conspiracist”.
Lampie – Yep they’re brothers. Just two little tory boys.
What I want to know is why no one has asked Mr Key if he will confirm that if he becomes PM, will he still donate his salary to charity? And if so, why not now, if he hasn’t?
Test of character? Says one thing
Strangely if it was the other way around the left would be swearing black and blue that National shouldn’t have the right to govern. The party that gains the most amount of party votes outside of a coalition should get the first right to form a coalition, any situation other than that would be morally wrong as Labour would not have the mandate to lead. It would have the power to form a cobbled coalition to control the house, but it would not have the mandate of the majority of the voters, not in my mind at least.
“Gayon”? How mature. As for Chris Trotter’s claims that TVNZ is a tool of the National-led VRWC, does he not realise how intensely dumb he looks to anyone who is not a committted member of the left with those screeds of polemic he emits so regularly?
Jared,
What do you mean “the first right to form a coalition”?
If National gains more votes than Labour and they can form a majority coalition then they get to be the government, if they can’t they don’t.
If National gains less votes than Labour and they can form a majority coalition then they get to be the government, if they can’t they don’t.
There’s no “first” about it. There’s no race about it, you can either form a majority coalition or you can’t.
Notice how a Greens Labour coalition is the end of the world over a kiwiblog with 5% holding the rest of parliament to ransom, yet and Act National coalition is just what the country needs.
Anita: I realise that, hence why I said “not in my mind at least”. But i still think the party that got the majority of votes should get the first right to form a coalition, rather than the party who came second.
But i still think the party that got the majority of votes should get the first right to form a coalition, rather than the party who came second.
There is no such thing, constitutionally or in practice, as “first right” to form a coalition.
Just look at the last election, where National (smaller than Labour) was actively trying to put together a government. It’s a bit rich for them to be going on about it now!
sprout
You overlook the fact that Batman was actively promoting the material to the Dom Post and prior to that the Standard. It’s rich to blame the Granny when the evidence suggests it’s a lot closer to home.
I take LP’s word that the Batman is not linked to the Standard.
Still, the indirect link coupled with the breathless ratcheting up of the neutron bomb here confirms that Labour did believe they were on to something.
Given the broader issues at stake and the economic situation, I would have much preferred that the election focus on policies, not personalities.
r0b: obviously that was my own opinion, I cant speak for the National Party now can I.
Rob I Agree:
The rules of engagement work thus:
The voters cast their votes and these are counted and the lists produce the number of MP’s.
The MP’s mill around, offer bribes and threats called consultation and negotiation, group themselves by any means, until one or other of the groupings have enough to form a majority.
Clearly if one grouping have a majority, the other grouping must be a minority.
Then the major grouping goes to the GGeneral and says “we are It!”
He says “Good on yer mate! Have a go at governing.”
Thus the size of each party is relevant only in forming a grouping.
Jared,
What do you mean by “first right”?
That’s the bit I don’t understand. Do you think the larger party should have a one week headstart?
Nelson Mail poll
West coast/tasman
NAT 44.7 (39.59)
LAB 33.91 (37.22)
GR 9.03 (13.7)
Which if a Nationwide result would be NATS 44ish Lab 37 ish Greens 9 ish
When Jared says “first” it seems to imply that the parties other than Nat and Lab have to stand in a line and wait to be picked. If the Nats get to pick “first” and pick, say, Greens and ACT then that’s their team and Greens and ACT have no say in the matter cos the Nats went first.
It shows a complete ignorance of the most basic concepts of how our system works.
That’s brilliant, Felix. We could do away with the election and just have Helen Clark and John Key do that thing where you put your feet heel to toe and the person with the last whole foot gets first pick.
oob,
I don’t understand your table. What are the numbers in parentheses? In fact, what are the numbers not in parentheses? Oh and what do the numbers at the bottom have to do with the numbers in the table?
Billy,
I think that would worry Lockwood odds are Clark has smaller feet than Key.
How about paper scissors rock then? Always fair.
Anita,
That’s the beauty of it. Foot size is no partcular advantage. It’s simply a function of the distance betweeen the participants and their foot size.
The fat kid will get picked last anyway. Sorry Parakura.
Felix: Nice.
Jared: We don’t use an arbitrary system of moral mandates to determine who gets to be in government – we use a codified system of law. It states that the first party leader who can assure the Governor-General that they have the confidence of the House (that is, 50% plus one of all votes in parliament) gets to be Prime Minister and form government. It’s that simple. No `first pick’ rights exist in law.
L
the point i s for all th edweebs who didnt get it the first time that goy epsinner commissioned colmar brunton to ask electors to vote on a poll that has no relevance ot constitutional democracy and is a figment o f natoinals imgaination
Espiner and TV! have come to beleive that they can what ever they like and it is time they were takne to task for their immature and infantile understanding of the process of government.
their schtick is the same sort of crass crap used by a lynch mob(excuse the pun) time for them to go after the election
Kiwis demand standards and espinner and dallow are really letting the side down
Poll results now followed by election result 2005
Extrapolated Nationally on last national elections result
by my maths anyway which was never that flash