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Auckland’s election result was not so bad

Written By: - Date published: 2:55 pm, December 14th, 2011 - 50 comments
Categories: election 2011, labour - Tags:

mickysavage at Waitakere News writes about a topic that none of us have had time for – numbers. The leadership changes have been clogging the posts.

The election result figures are finally in.  At 27.5% of the popular vote Labour’s result is the worst since the 1930s although not that much worse than 1996’s 28.2%.

National is up slightly by 2.4 percentage points but obviously at the cost of ACT who slumped 2.6 points.

Nationally Labour ‘s vote decreased by 6.5 percentage points.  But in Auckland (urban general electorates) the party performed relatively well and the vote decreased only by 2.6 points.  This was more than compensated for by the increase in the Green vote (3.6%) and the NZ First vote (2.3%).  National’s vote increased slightly (0.8%) but with the decimation of ACT the NACT vote actually went backwards.

There were some stunning results, particularly in South Auckland where Labour’s share of the vote increased by 10.2% in Mangere, 7.3% in Manukau East and 5.2% in Manurewa.  And in Phil Goff’s Mount Roskill it increased by 1%.  These were very good results in an election where the tide was going out.

The following table sets out the movement of Labour’s party vote in the various seats and nationally:

Nationwide -6.5%
Mangere 10.2%
Manukau East 7.4%
Manurewa 5.2%
Mt Roskill 1.0%
Botany -0.7%
Papakura -2.1%
Waitakere -2.6%
Te Atatu -2.6%
Maungakiekie -2.7%
New Lynn -3.3%
Tamaki -3.6%
Hunua -3.6%
Pakuranga -3.7%
Helensville -4.1%
East Coast Bays -4.4%
Epsom -4.5%
Northcote -4.7%
North Shore -5.2%
Mt Albert -5.5%
Rodney -7.2%
Auckland Central -9.4%

Auckland Central’s result may be a reflection of the tight candidate race that occurred there.  Voters may have given Jacinda Ardern their candidate vote at the expense of the party vote.

A comparison with other urban centers provides some interesting results.  In Wellington the Labour vote shed 7.3 percentage points, in Christchurch the figure was 10.2% and in Dunedin a jaw dropping 10.3%.  Christchurch could be explained by the earthquakes and the displacement caused but Dunedin’s result will need further analysis.

Why was the Auckland figure better?  A number of reasons spring to mind.  These include the disaster that is Super city, Labour’s proposal to partially fund the inner city loop, and an energetic effort by activists over the past three years.  Certainly the seats with the greatest activity enjoyed the best results.  South Auckland clearly returned to the fold.  At the last election its turnout was muted by the anti smacking legislation and a series of high profile murders in the area that caused law and order to be a major issue.  The “Street Captain” scheme put in place by the Service and Food Workers Union also would have helped.

No doubt more detailed analysis of the results will occur and conclusions will be drawn.  But the Auckland result is a glimmer of light for Labour and raises some possible courses of action for Labour to consider in its quest to regain the Government benches.

50 comments on “Auckland’s election result was not so bad”

  1. gingercrush 1

    Mt. Albert and Auckland Central do have to be a worry though.

    Auckland Central looks like Labour’s vote went to be both the Greens and National. Mt. Albert it simply looks like more went to the Greens rather than to Labour. Otherwise, it just appears Labour lost more votes in already strong National-held electorates.

    National didn’t really increase the vote meanwhile NZ First and the Greens vote grew considerably (much in the same way United Future and NZ First grew in 2002). That is what I find most frustrating. Because in 2002 Labour and the Greens were effectively on 48% and Progressives were 1.7%. The danger 2011 shows for National and the right is that at what should have been our greatest hour we’re still just over 50%. I suspect most of Dunedin’s vote simply went to the Greens. Dunedin South one needs to remember now covers a number of country areas.

    Though actually if you look at every MMP election the left or right have only been able to get 50% and a bit.

    • By my calculations the National vote in Christchurch went up 7.43% and in Dunedin by 4.3%.  The Green vote went up 4.7% and 7.1% respectively.

      In Auckland Central the Green vote went up by 7.3% and in Mt Albert by 6.15%.  The National vote went up by 2.1% and 1% in those seats.

      • mik e 1.1.1

        in dunedin the local national machine has been very high profile with a very prominent building on the main street + Cars that have very attractive advertising.Woodhouse has got around the electorate and kept the National party in the news.
        Labour and the left need to lift their game down here.

    • lprent 1.2

      Auckland Central has a rapidly moving population and quite young population. Most of the population growth is in apartments sold to younger voters who happily split their votes. It is a problem for Labour on the party vote.

      Most of Labour’s emphasis in that electorate has wound up on the electorate vote – as you can see. Labour’s electorate vote held up with help from Green voters, but their party vote went to the Greens. Good for the left if you want an overhang. Not so good if it doesn’t come off. 

      Turn out was down about thousand.

      Mt Albert was down by about two thousand. The electorate had gone from having a PM to just an MP, so I was expecting to see a drop – and you can see it in the electorate vote. I saw one after Helen became leader of the opposition – leader effect. That is also probably mostly why Mt Roskill went up. It does carry through to the party vote as well. 

      The challenge in Mt Albert has always been to keep National party vote from growing too much. But this time as you say left vote leaked to the greens. They ran a party vote only campaign and that actually works quite well for them because they preach the vote splitting mantra..

      The greens  are getting a lot smarter in their campaigning. In some ways that is good (because they have been pretty dumb and focused on stunts in the past). Does make it harder campaigning against both them and National.

      I don’t know much about the Mt Albert campaign this time. I pretty much limited myself to e-day target selection because I didn’t want campaigning pressures. 

      • nadis 1.2.1

        What is “e-day target selection”?

        • lprent 1.2.1.1

          Figuring out who you want to remind that it is election day and that they should get out and vote.

          There are about a million Kiwi’s who were enrolled and who didn’t vote in the 2011 election. Believe or not people actually forget to vote. Having someone knocking on their door or phoning them up helps a lot to get them to the polling booth.

          Labour has done this for a long time and it works. Labour vote is far more affected by the number of people turning out to vote than Nationals.

          Obviously we don’t like reminding National voters to vote, so we’re selective about who we’re going expend effort on.

          There are some pretty specific rules about what can and cannot be said, what can be worn, and what can be done.

          • nadis 1.2.1.1.1

            thks.

            Has anyone tried to do an analysis of how many people are registered to vote but live in Australia or further offshore?

            For instance I remained registered in a Wellington electorate for 15 years while living overseas – probably voted in just one or two elections in that period.

            • lprent 1.2.1.1.1.1

              The electronic roll has a mailing address that many people actually use. I’ve tagged it in my targeting code to indicate people that aren’t likely to actually be present in the electorate (and that should be handled differently). I gather that the electoral commission does the same.

              There are people who don’t do that and their mail goes to parents or flatmates or friends or the like. That is usually a bad idea because people move and you can get dropped from the roll.

              The way that electoral commission drops people from the roll is using the mail system. They periodically send e-mail to every voter and if the mail bounces (gone no address) then they will eventually remove people from the roll. It is easy enough to update your mailing address online at http://www.elections.org.nz

              There are numbers of overseas in most areas, especially around student towns. They aren’t that high. Your 15 years is one of the longest I know off because there is a requirement that you have to be back for at least a short period every few years to be able to vote and most people who are offshore for a long time tend to fail that requirement at least some time (don’t know the details).

              I don’t know if the electoral commission looks at the border control databases to see if people do come back into the country within the required timeframes. They probably should if they don’t.

  2. insider 2

    “Auckland’s election result was not so bad”

    That is such a sad headline, and I don’t mean in an unhappy way.

    • Silver lining insider, silver lining …

      • Tigger 2.1.1

        If we are to win we need to be realistic.  I keep hearing that Labour were ‘decimated’. We weren’t.

        • aerobubble 2.1.1.1

          Key was always going to win, he was way ahead all the time, well that’s the way I heard it.

          Facts differ from the MSM take though.

          Key lost because now he is one seat away from oblivion, his hold on power is down, and all it takes is a leadership threat.

          Key is out of touch with the needs of the NZ economy, those that voted National did so more out of desperation to keep their lifestyles.

          However peak oil is a threat to our primary exports, a game changer.

          Our tax system is weak and allows for more debt capacity that is safe in the world economy.

          Free trade means we cannot be a back water yet National voters want us to remain a back water less they have to give up their tax advantages against their foreign competitors (who pay pay CGT).

          So how has Key won? He gets to do what, sell assets that most people think is wrong even those who believe in asset sales (just not at the bottom of the market! when the world banks are printing money).

          Its ludicrous how pathetic Key is.

      • insider 2.1.2

        I know that was the intent, it just came across as completely demoralised – kind of like saying ‘well at least it didn’t rain’ after being hammered by an innings and 34 runs. You’d have been better with “Signs for the future for Labour in Auckland vote” or similar

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1

          Lefties are crap at spin, generally speaking. Thats a compliment. Sort of.

          See what I mean!!! 😛

  3. Jill 3

    Thank you for highlighting the successful campaigns in South Auckland which included tried and true methods of street corner meetings, sign waving, hoardings on every fence we could find (painting the town red), but also the new street captains project in which we mobilised union members to do small tasks such as leaflet deliveries in their own neighbourhoods, giving them small blocks they could do after work, and then on Election Day giving them packs with lists of all enrolled voters in their streets to go and encourage them to vote.
    The literally hundreds of volunteers came back brimming with amazing stories of the lengths they went to to give our people the opportunity to vote. Most of all they felt really good that they had done it as door knocking is quite a scarey prospect. It helps they were visiting their own neighbours.
    We also have great candidates. In Mangere we have a relatively new MP in Sua William Sio who has huge community support. He was of course deputy mayor of Manukau City, a former trade unionist and fighter for democracy.
    In Manurewa, Louisa Wall, former Silver Fern and Black Fern (won the Rugby World Cup twice!), is the first Maori MP in a general seat in South Auckland since Winston Peters won Hunua for the Nats in the 1980s, and she is the first Labour woman to win a general seat in South Auckland — ever. That may be because she is the only one to have been selected! First time up in the seat, she increased the majority George Hawkins had to 8600. She is young, with a sharp intellect, and tells it how it is. You should have seen her in the markets and in the shopping centres. She
    has a genuine love for our people — a sign of a true leader. Watch this space!

    • seeker 3.1

      Thanks for posting this comment Jill and telling South Auckland’s stirring story. You have lifted my heart after the last couple of weeks and thanks too to South Auckland for mounting such a strong, passionate campaign. Amazing.

      Have been admiring Suo William Suo for a while now. His commitment, wisdom and integrity shines through. Likewise Louisa Wall, who I think was a cracking Labour selection. Both show a genuine love for people- (oh that more in the National government did) which I think should be a real prerequisite for a leader.
      I think the South Auckland spirit is a beacon of light for Labour, sincere thanks.

  4. muzza 4

    Whats even worse about Central Auckland is that Nikki Kaye is the epitome of a party stooge. Many communications with her…bright girl, but quite simply under the spell.

    Could be a good time to see the rise of the truly neutral independents, because the political landscape it simply a mess with oxygen thieves who should be nowhere near the public decision making process…that applies to all parties…

    I will be hoping to get something better out of Jacinda Adern, if I have to deal with a party MP. Let’s see if she can extrapolate herself from the stink that is party stoogery

    • Anthony 4.1

      Kaye works pretty hard for her win, Seen Kaye more times than I can count around the area, seen Jacinda once or twice ever.

    • Cactus Kate 4.2

      Muzzy you have a very short memory.

      Much to the horror of her caucus colleagues, Nikki opposed mining. I think you need to revisit the definition of the word stooge and maybe apply it to her opponent.

      • McFlock 4.2.1

        Nikki opposed mining on Great Barrier Island. The NIMBY MP.

        That bit of the mining plan was always going to be the hardest sell, anyway: a hippie retirement community in Auckland’s back yard. Tui moment.
         
        It was the standard enviro-spiking tactic, just like the snail relocation – stack up a few areas, then drop the one with biggest opposition as part of a “compromise”. But the majority of the plan is still implemented (well – the entire thing was a bit much for them to chew. Hopefully the asset sales plan will be the same).

        • ghostwhowalksnz 4.2.1.1

          Apparently Nikki has a hideaway on GBI…….. Farrar goes there a lot as well… the island that is…..maybe there is a connection here…or maybe friends with benefits

      • muzza 4.2.2

        Curious those bloggers who alter a name to something it’s not – Tells much about the responder, that they lack basic manners…

        Anyway, yes Nikki Kaye went against Gt Barrier safe in knowing that it was never a serious mining option (at that time anyway), and because it comes under her electorate – WOW, tough stuff..And do you really think JK would have let Auckland Central go straight back to Labour, if there was mining on Barrier, cos thats exactly what would have happened…there are too many negatives for them to go anywhere near Gt Barrier…It was hollow rhetoric from NK, as part of the transparent political game lead by Kate Wilkinson backed by JK etc, while using the mining issue as a massive focus group session…

        • Akldnut 4.2.2.1

          Can almost guarentee that she did it with the full consent of her leader.
          She’s just a party stooge who apart from that one incident has done virtually nothing.

  5. Waldo 5

    I haven’t looked at the numbers, but wouldn’t some of the rise in Sth Auckland be due to the collapse of the Pacific party?

    • Gazza it probably would have helped but I would guess much if their vote went to the Conservative Party and helped in the increase of NZ First’s vote.

      Using the back of a local envelope and presuming PP’s votes went to the Conservative Party, then to NZ First and then returned to Labour this would have accounted for maybe 5 percentage points of the Mangere increase but only modestly in Manurewa and Manukau East.

    • vidiot 5.2

      Very good observation – looking at Mangere, 2700 votes in 2008 for PP – which is less than the increase in LAB party vote in 2011.

  6. vidiot 6

    Just as well Mickey’s a lawyer & not an accountant, his maths is off, way off.

    Take Mangere 2008 – Party Votes for LAB 15,446 vs 2011 Party Vote for LAB 17960 – difference is a 16.2% increase (2514 votes). If you look directly at the candidate votes – 12651 vs 18177 – again (5526) a 43% increase in voter support for the candidate. Also interesting to see voter turnout was up for that seat.

    Perhaps you need to get Marty back on the numbers ?

    • The change is the increase in the percentage of the total vote gained.  It is not affected by turnout.

      • mickysavage 6.1.1

        The formula used is
         
        change =(2011Labourvote/2011total)-(2008Labourvote/2008total)
         
        A change in turnout does not affect the change in the percentage.
         
        My maths is fine thanks.

        • vidiot 6.1.1.1

          No, your math is lacking.

          Using your exact formula on Mangere results – http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-22.html vs http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/electorate-22.html.

          Change = (17960/25525) – (15446/25353)
          Change = (0.703624) – (0.609238)
          Change = 0.094386

          Now if you change your formula to:
          Change =(2011Labourvote/2011total)/(2008Labourvote/2008total)
          Change = (17960/25525) / (15446/25353)
          Change = (0.703624) / (0.609238)
          Change = 115.4925%

          So how did you get 10.2% ?

          • mickysavage 6.1.1.1.1

            You are including informal party votes in your calculations.  I took them out and used the total valid votes figure instead.

            Calculations for Mangere are:

            2008 –  15446/25074=61.6%
            2011 –  17960/25007=71.8%

            Change is 10.2%

            All analyses that I see strip out the invalid votes.

            As Lynn says it is a bit of a crude measure in some respects but it gives a reasonable sense of what happened and allows some understanding of voting trends.

    • lprent 6.2

      As Micky says – why would you introduce a extra factor into a comparison. 

      If you’re after accuracy then I could also suggest several other ways that would fix the problems in your comparisons.

      Micky’s ones however are rough but effective measures to look at differences between electorates and between elections in a meaningful way.

       

  7. PJH 7

    Generally, Pacific, Maori, and ethnic minority voters are not inclined to vote for the Greens. So Labour has done well in those seats where those groups predominate: the South Auckland seats (Pacific, Maori), Roskill, Botany and Pakuranga (ethnic minorities). With Pakuranga the comparison is best made with other blue suburban seats where Labour dropped more than in Pakuranga this time, eg, North Shore, having had very similar levels of support in earlier elections.
    Labour tended to lose most to the Greens and National where the Pakeha middle class predominates; I suspect the Labour caucus had this in mind yesterday.
    This is probably the strongest reason for variations in the Labour party vote across the city, over and above the strictly local effects such as that in Auckland Central.

  8. DS 8

    Dunedin wasn’t actually too ugly relative to the rest of the wider South Island. The oddities of the Dunedin South party vote was a reflection of some horrible booths out at Mosgiel (contrary to populr belief, Dunedin South is no longer simply “South Dunedin”), and that Dunedin South’s middle-class tends to be Blue, rather than Green. Dunedin North is still less generically Red, but its middle-class (dominated by the University) tends to be Green, rather than Blue. 

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      And don’t forget that Dunedin North numbers were also hit by the retirement of a well known, long serving MP (Pete Hodgson).

      • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.1

        Isnt this all academic- National made a stunning recovery from a even more hideous thrashing (20.9% in 2002) so the only way is up for Labour in 2014.
        and National aint going to get another RWC or Canterbury Earthquake for a dead cat bounce

        • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1

          Yep. Goff did far far better in 2011 than English did in 2002. I feel that Goff was in too much of a rush to step down (or perhaps everyone was in too much of a rush to move in).

      • lprent 8.1.2

        Always happens..

        • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.2.1

          English stayed for a year…. and is still around 10 years later and he supposedly had marketable skills…cough

  9. Armchair Critic 9

    Your post abounds with faint praise micky, and faint praise ain’t a good thing. Look for the positives, Labour can’t afford to be too negative.
    In terms of the political parties it was a good election for NZ First, and the Greens. OTOH it was a bad election for Labour, ACT and the Maori Party. In the middle I’m putting National, who improved their party vote, but not by quite enough.
    In terms of political blocs the election was a bad for the right and showed a shift away from them. Like the RWC the favoured team won, but the margin was unexpectedly small. The mainstream narrative around the result conflates “the left” with “the Labour Party” and allows the illusion to be created of a solid mandate for the policy direction of the government. In fact with only minor shifts in voting patterns the government would have looked completely different. However…
    A brief side point – who was in charge of Labour’s election campaign? I tried hard to not be too negative about it, but in hindsight it was not good enough. Next time Labour must pursue the party vote like their lives depend on it, the focus on the candidates, at the expense of the leader and the party, was wrong.
    Back to what I wanted to say – “the left”, as a bloc, are fractured at the moment. With 14 Green Party MPs and Winston Peters back in Parliament, with unfinished business, Labour risk not being seen as “the Opposition” for the next term unless they get their act together, and quickly. Not because National will win the next election, they won’t, (unless there is a snap election within the year), but because the votes National loses will go to NZ First, back to moron parties like ACT and UF, and most of all to the disillusioned non-voting camp.
    It would be good to see Labour leading the left to a victory at the next election, rather than letting National lose it through unpopular policy. Labour need to:
    Start the election campaign now, especially the fundraising. I think it will be an early election, which is why I refer to the “next election”, rather than the “2014 election”. A by-election in either Auckland Central or Christchurch Central in 18 months time would be a nightmare for National.
    Oppose the government, after all Labour are the opposition.
    Unleash all of their talent. To this end, David C has to be Finance Minister. Otherwise I won’t split my vote next time, it will be all Green instead.
    Unify behind the leader the caucus selected
    Reconnect with the rural electorates, for two reasons. Some farmers are Labour supporters, but they are quite secretive about it because they are expected to vote National. And small provincial towns have reasonable numbers of people to whom Labour’s policies and principles would appeal. The narrative that their electorate is a National stronghold discourages them from voting, and the idea that their MP belongs to a party who does hold the same interests means they have no desire to engage with their MP.
    Find the good things from the 2011 election and roll them out across the country.
    Campaign for the party vote – unashamedly.
    Finally – ignore John Pagani. And Chris Trotter.
    On a technical note, I’m not sure whether your analysis compares apples with apples (it may well do). I voted Labour party vote and Green electorate vote. In my eyes that makes me a Labour voter this election, in accordance with the MMP electoral environment. The idea that people’s voting preference is determine by their electorate vote is, IMO, a hangover from FPP. Can you confirm the basis for your figures?

    • Thanks AC. good comments.

      To respond …

      1. If you include NZF in the left block then it was a good result and surprisingly close.
      2. Mallard was Labour’s campaign manager. With the benefit of hindsight it is clear that all the John Key billboards were a play for the party vote and not doing the same with Goff cost us dearly.
      3. All electorate candidates should be told to campaign for the party vote, no matter how marginal the seat. After all nothing else counts.
      4. I agree Labour is very vulnerable right now.
      5. Labour does need to start the campaign now through a couple of policy campaigns, eg no asset sales.
      6. Yes to David C being finance spokesperson, wholeheartedly.
      7. Agred we need unity.
      8. The provinces and country is where the next election will be won.
      9. I agree about Pagani. I am afraid he may be chief of staff though …
      10. The analysis is based on the change in the proportion of the party vote only.

      • Armchair Critic 9.1.1

        1. NZF could only be considered to be in the left bloc on the “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” basis. I don’t consider them to be “of the left”.
        2. It’s the party vote that counts, Labour knew that in 2002. There’s no excuse for forgetting or thinking otherwise.
        3. Yes, it’s teamwork. Winning the party vote gets you and your colleagues into parliament, whereas winning the electorate vote just gets you into parliament. Of all the parties it is Labour that should know and live the value of working collaboratively and collectively for the greater good. Not vociferously campaigning for the party vote goes against the spirit of the party.
        4. The vulnerability will come from indecision. Much as I dislike much of what Winston Peters says, I acknowledge that he says it in a convincing manner and in a way that people understand. Labour have had three years for introspection. Now to the barricades.
        5 – 8. tick
        9. Oh shit. John Pagani – another good reason to give the Greens two ticks.
        10. Ta.

        • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1

          1. NZF could only be considered to be in the left bloc on the “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” basis. I don’t consider them to be “of the left”.

          NZF had 2 policies which would have really counted in this election as a bridge to Labour. No asset sales. And $15 minimum wage.

          The rest was detail which could have been worked around for the most part, even though as you say, NZF are not “of the left”.

      • muzza 9.1.2

        Cunliffe for Finance, argh, NO.

        The bloke does not even understand how the national debt is un-repayable, because he does not understand that our RBNZ/OoDM are private. Until he can get his head around the fact that Treasury can issue/purchase bonds directly with itself ( including the amount interest the loan would require to service it in total, over the duration of the bonds life), which is then as a total amount seeped into the system via public works infrastructure projects etc – This way the total repayable amount of the loan is in existence, and hence can be paid back, unlike currently where the priciple is loaned (by private banks, through our private RBNZ/OoDM, to the Public Treasury (govt), and the interest repayable on top of the priciple….where is money coming from to pay off the loan plus the interest (does the money supply magically expand organically?) – I think he mumbled something about fire up the printing press, when we met with him – Finance spokeman, again = NO

        Of course John Key understands all this, which makes him much worse than those who are simply too ignorant/stupid or unable to get their head around this issue!

    • Colonial Viper 9.2

      Reconnect with the rural electorates, for two reasons. Some farmers are Labour supporters, but they are quite secretive about it because they are expected to vote National. And small provincial towns have reasonable numbers of people to whom Labour’s policies and principles would appeal. The narrative that their electorate is a National stronghold discourages them from voting, and the idea that their MP belongs to a party who does hold the same interests means they have no desire to engage with their MP.

      +1 Thanks for the insight. I hope the Wellington heads get this.

  10. In Vino Veritas 10

    Manukau, Manurewa and Manukau East. Surely no one should be surprised Labour increased in these electorates? These are electorates where many get to vote themselves an income, or at the very least, transfers from the government that are greater than the tax that they pay.

    • lprent 10.1

      Does that explanation of self-interest explains why the Labour vote dropped a lot between 2005 and 2008?

      No?

      Do you ever turn on your brain before you write these dumbarse statements? Or do you expect us to keep correcting your unthinking bigotry forever…

      I swear that I find many right wingers think with the glands until challenged. That is a bias from observation here. IVV seems to get his from the obsessive group-think of the right.

  11. In Vino Veritas 11

    Thanks lprent. Sorry, but I thought I’d just join the crowd and make a few dumbarse comments, there are plenty flying about. Bigotry is not the sole property of the right wing I might add.

    I have a question though. Are you saying that those people in the electorates noted above, are not likely to vote for the party that gives them the most financial assistance?

    • lprent 11.1

      Bigotry is not the sole property of the right wing I might add.

      Oh I’d agree. But there is a lot less of the unthinking bigotry which is what attracts my bile.

      Are you saying that those people in the electorates noted above, are not likely to vote for the party that gives them the most financial assistance?

      Simplistic and the wrong question. Because the answer is maybe. Voting behavior is pretty damn complex and there are a lot of factors that go into peoples decisions.

      Ummm a simple answer for the simplistic. In these electorates you probably have the highest population of active church goers in the entire country. Those often overlap with the group of people who benefit from the welfare systems (as you’re trying to dog whistle to). People, especially church goers, will often vote in accordance with reasons related to their perception of morals instead of their economic interests.

      Now if you asked ….are more likely to vote for the party…. then I’d say yes. But it is just a probability based on an attribute, one amongst many attributes.

      When I’m doing profiling with canvass information I’m typically doing it on a matrix with hundreds of factors in the mix from public and electoral information. It winds up with predictive probabilities for individuals.

      Like your prediction, it is also guesswork. Just better organised, based on far more data and orders of magnitude more accurate according to the people who do contacts based on it.

      But I wouldn’t make simple minded assertions like yours. Having such assurance of being right is the role of bigots who know bugger all.

      BTW: If you ask people who campaigned in the 3M’s in 2008, you’ll find that they said that the local crime rate and the ‘anti-smacking’ changes made a bigger difference to local voting than almost any other set of factors.

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    25 May 2016 The education minister is undermining the principles of integrity and honesty in teacher appointments by interfering with a legal decision designed to avoid cronyism.Today Hekia Parata introduced a supplementary order paper (SOP) to the Education Legislation Bill attempting… ...
    5 hours ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    frogblogBy Jan Logie
    5 hours ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    frogblogBy Jan Logie
    5 hours ago
  • Paula Bennett’s housing deja vu
    After a week of bad media coverage about homelessness in Auckland, Social Housing Minister Paula Bennett was today forced to act, announcing that she would pay homeless Aucklanders $5,000 to move to the regions (where they'd conveniently be out of… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 hours ago
  • Mojo Mathers: A better deal for animals in Budget 2016
    Currently we are failing animals in NZ. On the face of it farmed and domestic animals in this country have strong legal protection from abuse, cruelty and neglect. In reality it seems that only the very worst, most extreme cases… ...
    frogblogBy Mojo Mathers
    7 hours ago
  • Fluoridation: One small step sideways?
    Fluoridation. Let’s not ignore the elephant in the room – the need to separate scientific review from community consultation. Most health officials and science-minded people welcomed the recent announcement of the government’s plan to transfer decisions on water fluoridation from local… ...
    7 hours ago
  • Finding a sense of porpoise
    Being a porpoise looks rubbish.Dolphins look like they have fun. They even look like they seek out fun. Okay, the fixed grins make them seem perpetually happy but let’s be honest - when was the last time you saw a… ...
    7 hours ago
  • Member’s Day
    Today is a Member's Day, and one with some real business. First, there's the second reading of Sue Moroney's Parental Leave and Employment Protection (Six Months’ Paid Leave and Work Contact Hours) Amendment Bill, which will hopefully either pass, force… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    8 hours ago
  • Metiria Turei: What we need from Budget 2016
    Every family deserves a warm decent home.  Everyone believes that. This housing crisis is just the latest consequence of a Government who puts the interests of the few wealthy people above the needs of NZ families.  Families are doing it… ...
    frogblogBy Metiria Turei
    8 hours ago
  • Forcing transparency on Ministerial transport
    One of the perks of being a government Minister is the Ministerial limo - a chauffeur-driven car you can take anywhere. These vehicles are publicly funded and used for public business, so we should be able to see who uses… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    8 hours ago
  • Wicklow 2 win unconditional bail
    From éirígí: Great result today as éirígí’s Sean Doyle and Citizens Against Privatisation stalwart Eamonn McGrath were released from Cloverhill prison on unconditional bail. The unexpected outcome came virtue of a “technicality” in committal warrants as papers that were due… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    9 hours ago
  • We shouldn’t just forgive, but pay back odious debt
    Over 9,000 people have signed Action Station's petition calling on the government to forgive odious emergency housing debt. The government's response? Nope:Wiping the debt of people who have been staying in motels for emergency accommodation would not be fair to… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    9 hours ago
  • Opening up NLTF to all modes
    The Green Party released a new freight policy yesterday. They’re looking at ways to invest to increase safety and reduce carbon emissions: The Safer, Cleaner Freight policy sets a target for moving half of freight on rail… ...
    9 hours ago
  • The American Black Movement in the Sixties: Victories and Lost Opportunities
    The Black Power slogan of the 1960s was replaced with empowerment for the black American middle class and burgeoning capitalist layers The reign of the first black president in the United States is coming to an end.  Obama, or O’Bomber… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    9 hours ago
  • Hard News: Three Dreams
    I have three dreams. One is characteristic, one is recurring and one is singular.The characteristic one is simple in concept: it's me and my friends going places and doing things. In the last one I can recall, there was a… ...
    10 hours ago
  • Did you know this about tigers?
    Next in our series, we turn to the king (and queen) of the jungle - the tiger. Here are 10 incredible tiger facts from forests campaigner Richard George:10. Tigers have better short-term memories than humansTigers’ have one of the best… ...
    10 hours ago
  • How well do you know the Polar Bear?
    Since the very beginning of Greenpeace, our movement has been fighting to protect some of the world’s most vulnerable animals. And over the years, we’ve learnt some truly incredible things about the magnificent creatures we share this planet with. So… ...
    10 hours ago
  • How well do you know the orangutan?
    Next in the series, forests campaigner Richard George shares his 10 favourite facts about one of of our closest living relatives - the orangutan:10. Orangutans are ticklishThere are two kinds of ticklish. There’s the gentle kind that feels itchy and… ...
    10 hours ago
  • Income inequality is one of the defining issues of our time
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    Closing the GapBy Ben Smith
    11 hours ago
  • Dying For Latvia?
    Preparing For War: Nato forces in the former Soviet republic of Latvia as part of the 2014 "Silver Arrow" military exercises in the Baltic states. Such naked demonstrations of Nato's extended reach - right up to the borders of the… ...
    11 hours ago
  • How much do you really know about turtles?
    I’m Willie and I’m an oceans campaigner here at Greenpeace.Over the years I’ve had the privilege of watching turtles from the bow of Greenpeace ships, and many of my colleagues have encountered these peaceful ocean wanderers far out at sea… ...
    12 hours ago
  • How much do you know about whales?
    I’m Willie and I’m an oceans campaigner here at Greenpeace.Over the years I’ve had the privilege of seeing lots of whales, both from the deck of Greenpeace ships, and also on whale-watching trips. I’ve been lucky enough to see massive… ...
    12 hours ago
  • Are noisy oceans to blame for beached whales?
    Noise is the most invisible of all the man-made threats to the ocean, but to whales who ‘see’ by hearing, they simply cannot escape it.Water is an excellent medium for relaying sound, enabling some species of whale to communicate across… ...
    14 hours ago
  • Sylvia Park growth plans
    Sylvia Park is already Auckland’s largest shopping centre, but it’s likely to get even bigger in the next few years. Kiwi Property, who own the centre, have plans to expand the retail offering, as well as adding office buildings. In… ...
    Transport BlogBy John Polkinghorne
    14 hours ago
  • PrintNZ Forum Speakers Enlighten Delegates
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    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    18 hours ago
  • Nick Smith: There is NO crisis
    MyThinks has been fielding many questions about Nick Smith. “What’s happening with housing?” “Does Nick Smith know anything about any of his policy areas?” “Why does he look so shifty when he’s telling us what we should think?” These are… ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    1 day ago
  • Tracking the 2°C Limit – April 2016
    April is starting to come down off the shockingly high anomalies of the first couple of months of this year. GISS is clocking in a still strong warm anomaly of 1.11°C. This is by far the hottest April in the… ...
    1 day ago
  • Fanshawe St Bus Stop improvements
    Occasionally it is small projects that can have a lot of impact on people’s PT experience. With the ever growing number of people working near Victoria Park, an upgrade to the bus stops on Fanshawe St along with improvements to the… ...
    1 day ago
  • Fanshawe St Bus Stop improvements
    Occasionally it is small projects that can have a lot of impact on people’s PT experience. With the ever growing number of people working near Victoria Park, an upgrade to the bus stops on Fanshawe St along with improvements to the… ...
    1 day ago
  • An abuse of the Speaker’s chair
    Last week NewsHub revealed leaked MPI reports which showed that MPI had been turning a blind eye to widespread criminal behaviour in the fishing industry. Today was the first day of Parliament since those revelations, and given their seriousness, it… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • An abuse of the Speaker’s chair
    Last week NewsHub revealed leaked MPI reports which showed that MPI had been turning a blind eye to widespread criminal behaviour in the fishing industry. Today was the first day of Parliament since those revelations, and given their seriousness, it… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Punakaiki Fund invests in Populate
    Crosspost from Punakaiki Fund. New Investment: Populate One of our core motivations at Punakaiki Fund is being able to help and watch companies create a large number of sustainable new jobs. And one of the best people around at hiring… ...
    Lance WiggsBy Lance Wiggs
    1 day ago
  • A piece of gratis media advice for Hilary Clinton
      Here’s some free media advice for Hilary Clinton now just trailing Donald Trump in the polls: Stop smiling and waving to “people you recognise” in the crowd. It’s insulting to everyone else, looks (and may well be) dishonest… ...
    1 day ago
  • A piece of gratis media advice for Hilary Clinton
      Here’s some free media advice for Hilary Clinton now just trailing Donald Trump in the polls: Stop smiling and waving to “people you recognise” in the crowd. It’s insulting to everyone else, looks (and may well be) dishonest… ...
    1 day ago
  • The Nuit Debout revolt in France: let the gems sparkle. . .
    by Denis Godard The movement of occupation of squares in France is [over] two weeks old. [1] Its evolution is difficult to predict, because it is open to many unforeseen events, even though its roots are deep. At this point… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 day ago
  • Open Government: Unilateral
    Back in April, State Services Minister Paula Bennett announced in an answer to a Parlaimentary written question that we were consulting the Open Government Secretariat about an extension to the deadline for submitting our action plan:While New Zealand's second Open… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Open Government: Unilateral
    Back in April, State Services Minister Paula Bennett announced in an answer to a Parlaimentary written question that we were consulting the Open Government Secretariat about an extension to the deadline for submitting our action plan:While New Zealand's second Open… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    frogblogBy Marama Davidson
    1 day ago
  • Free the Wicklow 2
    Protests around the imprisonment of these two activists are taking place around Ireland and also in Britain.  Anyone fancy organising something at the Irish embassy in Wellington  There is also an Irish consulate in Auckland. ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 day ago
  • DIY Touring The World: New Zealand
    New Zealand has a small population, few places to play and not much money for touring bands - but you can’t beat the beautiful landscapes, hidden gem venues and fantastic audiences. Music impresario Ian Jorgensen has been touring bands… ...
    1 day ago
  • We are all socialists now
    A mass government house-building programme is a favourite policy of the left for solving the Auckland housing crisis. Use cheap government capital, build affordable, energy-efficient homes, mass produce them to get efficiencies of scale, and get people back into owning… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • We are all socialists now
    A mass government house-building programme is a favourite policy of the left for solving the Auckland housing crisis. Use cheap government capital, build affordable, energy-efficient homes, mass produce them to get efficiencies of scale, and get people back into owning… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Protected: Tributes to Dame Margaret Sparrow
    This post is password protected. You must visit the website and enter the password to continue reading.Filed under: Uncategorized ...
    ALRANZBy ALRANZ
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand and New Zealand
    There’s a 2009 sci-fi novel by China Miéville called The City and the City. The action takes place in two separate cities which overlap each other geographically, but the denizens of each city is compelled to ‘Unsee’ things they see happening in… ...
    DimPostBy danylmc
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand and New Zealand
    There’s a 2009 sci-fi novel by China Miéville called The City and the City. The action takes place in two separate cities which overlap each other geographically, but the denizens of each city is compelled to ‘Unsee’ things they see happening in… ...
    DimPostBy danylmc
    1 day ago
  • Breaking free from fossil fuels – the risk we take is not taking action
    Last week, #BreakFree2016 wrapped up across the globe. Greenpeace joined with many inspiring organisations in a global wave of peaceful actions that lasted for 12 days and took place across six continents to target the world’s most dangerous fossil fuel projects.In places… ...
    1 day ago
  • More odious debt
    The media over the last few days has been full of stories about WINZ and odious debt. But the worst one is this:A woman with eight children living in emergency housing is facing a debt to Work and Income of… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • More odious debt
    The media over the last few days has been full of stories about WINZ and odious debt. But the worst one is this:A woman with eight children living in emergency housing is facing a debt to Work and Income of… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Additional Harbour Crossing ill-considered and over-rushed.
    We are increasingly concerned that Auckland is in the middle of very poor process where by far the nation’s biggest ever infrastructure project is being forced along and at ill-considered speed without anything like the level of public participation nor detailed… ...
    Transport BlogBy Patrick Reynolds
    1 day ago
  • Additional Harbour Crossing ill-considered and over-rushed.
    We are increasingly concerned that Auckland is in the middle of very poor process where by far the nation’s biggest ever infrastructure project is being forced along and at ill-considered speed without anything like the level of public participation nor detailed… ...
    Transport BlogBy Patrick Reynolds
    1 day ago
  • Tinder and 3nder are officially at war
    Your right to swipe for threesomes is under threat.    Some clean-cut millennials enjoying the 3nder afterglow. 1232RF Those for whom three is the magic sex-number should know that one's right to swipe one's way into a six-limb circus is… ...
    1 day ago
  • Weekly Listening: Die Antwoord, Joey Purp, King Kapisi and more
    A showcase of some of the best new music releases from the past week.   Joey Purp - GIRLS @ Feat. Chance The Rapper This track might be the catchiest three minutes and 32 seconds to hit your ears… ...
    1 day ago
  • Some big news, for me
    Two pieces of news that are kind of a big deal, for me. Firstly, I’m ditching my landline! I’m not a student and I’m not in a low income band, so make of that what you will. Secondly, after 10… ...
    GrumpollieBy Andrew
    1 day ago
  • Start as you mean to go on
    The GCSB has a new director: His family tease him by calling him Johnny English. He has a 3000-strong record collection – not classical, but some “out there” 1980s indie rock. Andrew Hampton is also a government fix-it man –… ...
    DimPostBy danylmc
    1 day ago
  • Start as you mean to go on
    The GCSB has a new director: His family tease him by calling him Johnny English. He has a 3000-strong record collection – not classical, but some “out there” 1980s indie rock. Andrew Hampton is also a government fix-it man –… ...
    DimPostBy danylmc
    1 day ago
  • Polity: Mike’s minute: Mike’s maths!
    Today, media ubiquity Mike Hosking took to nzherald.co.nz to vent his frustration at Labour for suggesting that it would re-convene the same Tax Working Group first used by National. He was clearly very upset.For Mike, Auckland’s housing crisis is a… ...
    1 day ago
  • Polity: Mike’s minute: Mike’s maths!
    Today, media ubiquity Mike Hosking took to nzherald.co.nz to vent his frustration at Labour for suggesting that it would re-convene the same Tax Working Group first used by National. He was clearly very upset.For Mike, Auckland’s housing crisis is a… ...
    1 day ago
  • Denise Roche: What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 Pt II
    Aotearoa’s new New Zealanders,  come to our country in vulnerable position: – often away from the culture, communities and families they know, sometimes in neighbourhoods without familiar faces and often encountering barriers to employment. With net migration at 50,000+ a… ...
    frogblogBy Denise Roche
    1 day ago
  • Helter smelter deja vu: Tiwai Point uncertainty stalls NZ renewables
    Simon Johnson looks at how New Zealand Aluminium Smelter Limited is behind the Meridian/Genesis deal keeping the Huntly Thermal Power Station burning coal as the threat of closing the Tiwai Point smelter is stalling the construction of consented renewable energy… ...
    Hot TopicBy Mr February
    1 day ago
  • Helter smelter deja vu: Tiwai Point uncertainty stalls NZ renewables
    Simon Johnson looks at how New Zealand Aluminium Smelter Limited is behind the Meridian/Genesis deal keeping the Huntly Thermal Power Station burning coal as the threat of closing the Tiwai Point smelter is stalling the construction of consented renewable energy… ...
    Hot TopicBy Mr February
    1 day ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    frogblogBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    frogblogBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: This. Is. Crazy.
    It's eight days since the Prime Minister airily assured Guyon Espiner on Morning Report that "in my experience with Work and Income", homeless people could go along to their local office and get sorted with some emergency housing.We now know… ...
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: This. Is. Crazy.
    It's eight days since the Prime Minister airily assured Guyon Espiner on Morning Report that "in my experience with Work and Income", homeless people could go along to their local office and get sorted with some emergency housing.We now know… ...
    2 days ago
  • A great Budget would
    A great Budget would embrace the challenge of our polluted rivers and move the money away from justifying the status quo water rules into cleaning up waterways. A great Budget would take the Ministry for the Environment freshwater budget and… ...
    frogblogBy Catherine Delahunty
    2 days ago
  • Smarter, Better, Cleaner, Stronger
    This Thursday Bill English will deliver his eighth Budget. Will it continue the trend of previous National budgets, making tertiary education less affordable, putting only token funds into innovation, and subsidising polluters? Budgets aren’t what they used to be. Once… ...
    frogblogBy Gareth Hughes
    2 days ago
  • What we are expected to believe
    In recent months I have become increasingly concerned at the state of bullshit in this country. Bullshit, as Harry Frankfurt famously wrote, is distinguished not by its intentionally negative truth value (those are lies) but its absence of intentional truth… ...
    2 days ago
  • The end of Auckland’s old growth model
    The New Zealand Council for Infrastructure Development’s public shark-jumping exercise the other week got me thinking. While their flagship policy of a new megabillion eastern tunnel project is a bit mad, their report does a reasonable job of diagnosing one… ...
    Transport BlogBy Peter Nunns
    2 days ago
  • The end of Auckland’s old growth model
    The New Zealand Council for Infrastructure Development’s public shark-jumping exercise the other week got me thinking. While their flagship policy of a new megabillion eastern tunnel project is a bit mad, their report does a reasonable job of diagnosing one… ...
    Transport BlogBy Peter Nunns
    2 days ago
  • Why are whistleblowers being prosecuted as spies?
    Whistleblowers are a ‘check’ on government, corporate or organisational secrecy and malfeasance. I recently read Tim Shipman’s preview of the Chilcot report into the origins of the Tony Blair-led UK engagement in the US’s invasion of Iraq, which looked at… ...
    The PaepaeBy Peter Aranyi
    2 days ago
  • Spend and Tax
    As a general rule, New Zealanders want more public spending. Surveys (such as the 2014 Election Survey) show consistent support for increases in spending, particularly in the areas of health, education, housing, law enforcement, public transport and the environment (in… ...
    Briefing PapersBy Brian Easton
    2 days ago
  • The birth place of the artist
    It may not be the best reason to fund the arts. It’s certainly not the only one. But travelling to the small city of Rovereto, at the feet of the Italian dolomites, reminded me of the lasting influence that a… ...
    Bat bean beamBy Giovanni Tiso
    2 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the rise of the far right, and battle bots
    In his victory speech at the Cannes film festival this week, the British film director Ken Loach warned that the rise of far right parties in Europe was being fuelled by the economic policies of austerity, and manifested in a… ...
    2 days ago

  • Minister won’t fess up on wrong figures
    The Minister of Health was caught out telling porkies in Parliament today when he was asked about the number of people getting access to mental health and addiction services, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King. ...
    4 hours ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    5 hours ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    5 hours ago
  • Scrambled announcement policy on the hoof
    Paula Bennett’s scrambled desperate announcement that she will pay homeless people to move to the regions is just the latest evidence of the disarray this Government’s housing policy is in, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “This is policy… ...
    6 hours ago
  • Police Minister admits resolution rates fall short of expectation
    Police Minister Judith Collins has admitted in Parliament current burglary resolution rates are not meeting the expectations of our communities, says Labour’s Police spokesman Stuart Nash “Out of 284 police stations in New Zealand in 2015, 24 stations recorded zero… ...
    7 hours ago
  • Mojo Mathers: A better deal for animals in Budget 2016
    Currently we are failing animals in NZ. On the face of it farmed and domestic animals in this country have strong legal protection from abuse, cruelty and neglect. In reality it seems that only the very worst, most extreme cases… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers
    7 hours ago
  • Metiria Turei: What we need from Budget 2016
    Every family deserves a warm decent home.  Everyone believes that. This housing crisis is just the latest consequence of a Government who puts the interests of the few wealthy people above the needs of NZ families.  Families are doing it… ...
    GreensBy Metiria Turei
    8 hours ago
  • Dairy exports fall of 11%: Budget action on diversification needed
    Dairy exports have fallen 11 per cent compared to this time last year, a fall of almost $1.5b, showing the Government must take clear action on diversifying the economy in tomorrow’s Budget, says Labour’s Trade and Export Growth spokesperson David… ...
    8 hours ago
  • Investors driving families out of homes in South and West Auckland
    Investors cashing in on skyrocketing Auckland house prices are driving families out of homes in South and West Auckland and causing homeownership rates in some of our poorest suburbs to plummet, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New analysis shows… ...
    11 hours ago
  • Budget must deliver on paid parental leave
    Budget 2016 must deliver 26 weeks paid parental leave by April 2018 – anything less will be short-changing families, says Labour MP Sue Moroney. “My Bill which is before Parliament this afternoon has majority support and does just that. I… ...
    11 hours ago
  • Key’s “brain fart” on tax cuts news to English
    John Key didn’t tell his own Finance Minister he was about to go on radio and announce he wanted $3b of tax cuts, just days after Bill English ruled them out, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “In Parliament today… ...
    1 day ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    1 day ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    1 day ago
  • Denise Roche: What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 Pt II
    Aotearoa’s new New Zealanders,  come to our country in vulnerable position: – often away from the culture, communities and families they know, sometimes in neighbourhoods without familiar faces and often encountering barriers to employment. With net migration at 50,000+ a… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    1 day ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • A great Budget would
    A great Budget would embrace the challenge of our polluted rivers and move the money away from justifying the status quo water rules into cleaning up waterways. A great Budget would take the Ministry for the Environment freshwater budget and… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    2 days ago
  • Budget building materials policy backfires
    On the eve of this year’s Budget official figures show Nick Smith’s Budget 2014 centrepiece to reduce the cost of building materials has backfired, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment officials have spent the… ...
    2 days ago
  • Smarter, Better, Cleaner, Stronger
    This Thursday Bill English will deliver his eighth Budget. Will it continue the trend of previous National budgets, making tertiary education less affordable, putting only token funds into innovation, and subsidising polluters? Budgets aren’t what they used to be. Once… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    2 days ago
  • Govt must come clean on tax cuts in Budget
    National is making a mockery of the Budget process by dangling the promise of tax cuts but failing to include them in the Budget, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “National’s tax cut promises have turned into a farce. One… ...
    2 days ago
  • Grant Robertson Pre-Budget Speech
    Today I want to talk about success. As we know success can come in many different forms, from the fact you all made it here at such an early hour on a Monday, for which I am very grateful, to… ...
    2 days ago
  • Budget must deliver for middle New Zealand
    The Government must ensure next week’s Budget stops the squeeze on middle New Zealand and delivers shared prosperity for all New Zealanders, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. The call follows new research commissioned by Labour that shows working… ...
    3 days ago
  • Our housing emergency – why we have to act
    Marama and Metiria at Homes Not Cars launch On Thursday, Metiria Turei announced the Green Party’s plan to start addressing the emergency housing crisis facing our country. Too many people are without homes right now – homeless. It is the… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    4 days ago
  • Will funding boost for sexual violence services go to the right places?
    This week the Government announced $46million for sexual violence services. This announcement was a result of decades of work by advocates and everyone who submitted to the Select Committee inquiry into funding for sexual violence services that I initiated with… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    5 days ago
  • Will funding boost for sexual violence services go to the right places?
    This week the Government announced $46million for sexual violence services. This announcement was a result of decades of work by advocates and everyone who submitted to the Select Committee inquiry into funding for sexual violence services that I initiated with… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    5 days ago
  • Denise Roche – What I’m looking for in this year’s Budget
    Two of the things I’ll be looking for in the Budget next week are more funding for refugees and for our arts and culture sector. More funding for refugees I’m a strong supporter of the #DoubleTheQuota campaign and its goals… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    5 days ago
  • Denise Roche – What I’m looking for in this year’s Budget
    Two of the things I’ll be looking for in the Budget next week are more funding for refugees and for our arts and culture sector. More funding for refugees I’m a strong supporter of the #DoubleTheQuota campaign and its goals… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    5 days ago
  • Car rego victims must get a refund
    Motorists who have been overcharged for their car registration should get a refund, says Labour’s Transport spokesperson Sue Moroney.  “Minister Nikki Kaye’s ‘faulty risk’ rating scheme has blown up in her face with over 170 different models of car having… ...
    5 days ago
  • Council statement shows they just don’t get it
    The Auckland Council’s statement today shows they don’t understand the problems created by the urban growth boundary, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  “I have been the first to defend the Auckland City Council when Bill English has been blaming… ...
    5 days ago
  • Inspecting electronic devices a potential privacy threat
    Labour is expressing concern for New Zealanders’ privacy rights as the Government signals Customs will have the power to inspect electronic devices coming across the border, says Labour’s Customs Spokesperson Rino Tirikatene. “We agree that customs officers should have the… ...
    5 days ago
  • The Price of Water
    This week I hosted a public meeting at EIT in Hawkes Bay to discuss how we might put a price on the commercial use of water, so that water may be valued and treated more sustainably. I invited a… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    5 days ago
  • Caption It NZ!
    Today I received a petition from the NZ Captioning Working Group urging the government to legislate for accessibility via closed captioning for deaf and hard of hearing New Zealanders. It was timely because today is the fifth Global Accessibility Awareness… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers
    6 days ago
  • Older Kiwis to miss out on electives
    The Government is not doing enough elective surgery to keep up with New Zealand’s ageing population, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “It’s damning that the targeted national intervention rate for cataract and knee and hip surgery is the same… ...
    6 days ago
  • Most principals say their college is underfunded
    The Government must substantially increase funding for secondary schools in next week’s Budget after a new survey found 86 per cent of principals consider their college under-resourced, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Just 14 per cent of secondary principals… ...
    6 days ago
  • Bill English and Nick Smith on different pages
    The Government’s support for Labour’s policy to remove the Auckland urban growth boundary is good news, but National needs to clarify its position, Labour’s Housing and Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Acting Prime Minister has acknowledged our position… ...
    6 days ago
  • Bill English and Nick Smith on different pages
    The Government’s support for Labour’s policy to remove the Auckland urban growth boundary is good news, but National needs to clarify its position, Labour’s Housing and Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Acting Prime Minister has acknowledged our position… ...
    6 days ago
  • Labour calls for independent inquiry into illegal fish dumping
    The Labour Party is reiterating its call for an independent inquiry into New Zealand’s fishing industry after two reports revealed the Ministry for Primary Industries turned a blind eye to widespread fish dumping in New Zealand waters, says Labour’s Fisheries… ...
    6 days ago
  • Mt Karangahake and Newcrest Mining
    On Wednesday and Sunday of last week the local residents of the Karangahake mountain in the Karangahake gorge of Hauraki/Coromandel peacefully protested against a gold mining drill rig on private land adjacent to the DOC land. The drilling rig was… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Robbing Aucklanders to pay Rio Tinto
    New Zealand’s national electricity grid stretches the length of the country and contains some 11,803 kilometres of high-voltage lines and 178 substations. It wouldn’t make sense for competing power companies to duplicate and build their own expensive electricity transmission system… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    1 week ago
  • Government should abolish Auckland urban growth boundary
    The Government should rule out any possibility of an urban growth boundary in Auckland Council’s Unitary Plan if it is serious about fixing the housing crisis, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Over 25 years the urban growth boundary hasn’t… ...
    1 week ago
  • Kiwis don’t want iPads for Land deals
     It is outrageous that schools are relying on money and iPads from foreign land investors to meet the learning needs of their students, says Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins.  “Several OIO land applications by offshore investors have claimed that without… ...
    1 week ago
  • Homelessness – National has failed all of us
    A young South Auckland Māori woman recently tried to get hold of me around midnight. I missed her call. The woman wanted me to know the sharp reality facing too many families looking for a stable place to live. Things… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    1 week ago
  • Moko case should never have been manslaughter deal
    Confirmation again yesterday that the manslaughter charge in the Moko Rangitoheriri case was a deal done by the Crown Prosecution Service is justifiably the cause of outrage, says Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern.“This should never have been a case where… ...
    1 week ago
  • Overseas investor funds school’s digital devices
    The Government must address the inequality laptops and tablets in classrooms are causing after a Queenstown school was forced to use a donation from an overseas investor to get their students digital devices, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins. “Documents obtained… ...
    1 week ago
  • Child Youth and Family Review and Domestic Violence
    This Government has consistently failed to recognise the links between Child Youth and Family Services (CYFS) and intimate partner violence. For me, the recent review of CYFS has highlighted this misunderstanding of the dynamics of domestic violence and its impacts… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    1 week ago
  • Child Youth and Family Review and Domestic Violence
    This Government has consistently failed to recognise the links between Child Youth and Family Services (CYFS) and intimate partner violence. For me, the recent review of CYFS has highlighted this misunderstanding of the dynamics of domestic violence and its impacts… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    1 week ago
  • Canterbury rebuild: How wood is a better choice for the new city
    It was interesting to attend the ForestWood Conference in Auckland recently and learn about the extent of innovation in the wood processing and manufacturing sector. The forestry sector may be New Zealand’s third largest export earner, but raw logs make… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    1 week ago
  • Canterbury rebuild: How wood is a better choice for the new city
    It was interesting to attend the ForestWood Conference in Auckland recently and learn about the extent of innovation in the wood processing and manufacturing sector. The forestry sector may be New Zealand’s third largest export earner, but raw logs make… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    1 week ago
  • Key plucks $3b out of thin air – reckless and irresponsible
    John Key refuses to give up on his dream of tax cuts to the wealthy, despite being shot down by Bill English, and is resorting to plucking numbers out of thin air, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “On radio… ...
    1 week ago
  • John Key woefully out of touch on homelessness
    John Key is completely out of touch if he thinks desperate South Auckland families forced to live in cars can simply go to Work and Income for help, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “Many of these families are working and… ...
    1 week ago

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