web analytics
The Standard
Advertising

Australian election

Written By: - Date published: 3:26 pm, August 21st, 2010 - 22 comments
Categories: australian politics - Tags: ,

Our cousins on the West Island are winding up their election day soon, culminating a dramatic couple of months for Australian politics.

What a roller-coaster. From the heady days of the seemingly unassailable Kevin Rudd to Julia Gillard’s dramatic coup. Last night the polls put the election “too close to call”, and “the closest in 50 years”. The final Sydney Morning Herald poll puts Labour slightly ahead today:

Labor is clinging to a fragile lead over the Coalition as voters go to the polls today to elect Australia’s 43rd Parliament after one of the most extraordinary election campaigns in years.

The final Sydney Morning Herald/Nielsen poll shows Julia Gillard’s Labor government leading Tony Abbott’s Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 percent to 48 percent.

Such a result would typically assure victory to Labor but with deep anti-Labor sentiment in NSW and Queensland pointing to large losses, today’s election will be decided in the marginal seats in these states.

The Guardian describes the election as “a farce with much at stake”. It is likely that the Greens will hold the balance of power. Let’s hope so! Hear that distant cackle? That’s the ghost of Kevin Rudd having the last laugh at the mining lobby…

22 comments on “Australian election”

  1. Draco T Bastard 1

    From the first link in the last paragraph:

    But who needs policy when you have a debate about debates? The past week has been consumed by a slanging match between the leaders about if, when and how they will debate each other. In a similarly post-modern twist, much of the rest of the media coverage has focused on how rubbish the coverage has been.

    That’d be nice to see in our MSM – especially if they followed it up with some actual coverage.

  2. ghostwhowalksnz 2

    Currently Labour has 83 seats ( not the 88 some mention but thats another story)
    My prediction is around 80 for labour maybe slightly less.

  3. Zetetic 3

    Haven’t seen a single poll with Libs ahead. And those polls are two party-preferred. Reality slants more Labor’s way.

  4. Outofbed 5

    greens 11.6% woot woot won a seat in Melbourne yeeesssssss

  5. Claudia 6

    .. or a Labour-Green coalition in the lower house – but I don’t know the composition of preferences of the other 4 lower house independents.

  6. Claudia 7

    Labour 68, Coalition 68 .. at the moment.

  7. gingercrush 8

    Seeing how the preferential system works in Australian electorates. I would love such a system for our electorate seats.

    • Zetetic 8.1

      you have to rank each and every candidate. if you muck up the ranking at all your vote is invalid. so they invented a system in the senate votes where you simply tick to say you want the ranking order determined by labor or the greens or whoever. nearly all voters do that. lot more power to the parties.

      preferential voting means the minors get shafted – greens get maybe 7% of the vote and 1% of the seats. nearly as bad as fpp.

      • gingercrush 8.1.1

        I’m talking about how electorate MPs are decided not list MPs. Though I would like to see an additional vote scenario in casting party votes so minor parties that don’t make it into parliament i.e. NZ First, RAM, Kiwi Party, Alliance etc don’t have their vote simply discounted entirely.

        • Ari 8.1.1.1

          I think scaling back the threshold to allow single-seat list parties would do enough on that account. There ought to be some element of risk to voting for a marginal party in order to make launching a party a serious endeavor.

          As for preferential systems: They’re really not a huge advancement on FPP for electorates, and they have some big structural problems, for instance there’s still an element of favourite betrayal. Systems like STV are really only useful for multi-winner elections. What’s much better for single candidates is an evaluative system where you give some indication of how good you think each candidate is. That can go from anything as simple as approval voting (vote for all the candidates you’d like to win) to three-value “evaluative” voting (tick to approve a candidate, cross to disapprove them, leave blank if you don’t know or don’t care about a candidate) all the way to rating candidates on a scale.

  8. Claudia 9

    ABC Newsradio is good for (24hr) breaking news.

    I think I’m going to need some sleep very shortly.

  9. Claudia 10

    At 12.05AM NZDT, as figures from WA come in, ABC electoral commentator Antony Green has a new take on the likely state of play… Coalition: 73 seats; Labor: 72 seats; Greens: 1 seat; Independents: 4 seats.

  10. Claudia 11

    12.07 AM

    Peter Costello notes that the Green Adam Bandt and possible independent in Denison Andrew Wilkie are far warmer towards Labor than other independents (Windsor-Oakeshott-Katter) are to the Coalition.

    Says this might allow Labor to have the first shot at forming Government

  11. Claudia 12

    It might be a few days before the dust clears. There has been unprecedentedly high advance and overseas voting which may take a few days to assess. The likely scenario is a hung parliament.

    Good Night, Antipodeans !

  12. RedLogix 13

    Can someone explain why the pundits pointed to Rudd’s failure to pass an ETS legislation (mostly because the Liberals refused to work with him) as the prime reason why he lost popularity…. so now the same public reward the Liberals with an election majority?

    • Carol 13.1

      Firstly, it’s looking like a hung parliament not a Liberal Coalition majority.

      As I understood it late last night, there was only about a 1% swing to the right from Labor. Most of Labor’s lost votes seem to have gone to the Greens. The biggest swing against Labor was in Queensland where many were pissed at their boy being rolled. Labor made gains in other places.

      • loota 13.1.1

        Hmmmm not sure I would be so quick to pin all the blame on Queensland…from the SMH:

        Late last night, the national two-party-preferred swing against Labor from 2007 was 2.6 per cent. Labor led the Coalition by 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent.

        I read that yes, Queensland had the biggest swing against Labor (almost 6%) but NSW recorded a solid 4.9% swing against Labor too.

    • loota 13.2

      Because Gillard was a very senior player who was involved in making the decision with Rudd for the ETS back down, she represents the Right of the party and continued to maintain her distance from the ETS legislation during the campaign.

      Therefore tarred with the same ETS brush AND the electorate punished Labor for their coup + average campaign.

      At least that’s how it looks from a distance :D

      But my didn’t the Greens do well? Lefties over there got sick of Labor.

  13. tc 14

    My take is this RL: Rudd had his popularity mown down by the mining sector PR machine (the one CT takes it’s cues from) over the super tax…..’pundits’ are mostly paid for/by various interests so axes at the ready with this crew.
    Oz politics is shades of grey and it’s easy to get massive swings in the lower house as you’re only changing the chauffer not the destinantion which derives from the senate needing to pass everything in their upper house.
    Labor’s paid for dumping Kev for Jules and also the Lib’s have returned some of their core who hated little johnny.
    IMHO the greens taking a seat is an important milestone in politics downunder.
    Also Oz is feeling the recession finally in parts so that’s a factor.

  14. ghostwhowalksnz 15

    On the primary votes Labour won Melbourne, the greens were second. But the Liberal preferences should give the result to Greens.

    But the preferences cuts both ways, in many other seats the Liberals are ahead of labour ( and shown as ‘winning’) but the greens preferences should push labour ahead depending on the numbers for the other minor candidates.

Links to post

Important links

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

1 2 3 7

  • Customs seeks big brother powers
    A proposal giving New Zealand Customs powers to compel anyone to provide passwords and encryption keys to their electronic devices is another step towards a surveillance society and should be strongly resisted, Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran said today.  “There… ...
    2 hours ago
  • Playcentre Awareness Week – celebrating an icon!
    It’s not always easy being an icon and Playcentres tell me they are facing big challenges under the current economic and social circumstances. However this week Playcentres are celebrating their proud history and current contribution. Since 1941 the Playcentres have… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    4 hours ago
  • Housing Accord not working – prices continue skyward
      The Government's Auckland Housing Accord isn't working as house prices continue to go through the roof, Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The average Auckland house has gone up by $110,000 since the Accord came into effect 15 months… ...
    22 hours ago
  • Justice for Teina Pora long overdue
    The Privy Council’s decision to quash Teina Pora’s convictions for the rape and murder of Susan Burdett could be the final chapter in a case that should have been closed years ago, Labour’s Justice Spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. “Teina Pora… ...
    1 day ago
  • Ministers must answer questions on IRD blowout
    The current and previous Revenue Ministers must front up and explain how the child support system had a budget blowout from $30 million to $210 million in just four years, says Labour’s Revenue spokesperson Clayton Cosgrove. “Peter Dunne was Revenue… ...
    2 days ago
  • Curb stratospheric public CEO salaries
    A review of the way MPs’ pay is set should also look at ways to curb excessive rises in the salaries of public service chief executives, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “Some of these CEOs have had stratospheric pay increases… ...
    2 days ago
  • 50 cents? Makes no sense.
    The minimum wage rose by 50 cents this month from 14.25 to 14.75. While it’s a small step towards ensuring minimum workers get a fair share, it’s important to remember that real wages only rose 1.5% while productivity rose by… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    3 days ago
  • The Serco corrections circus
    It should seem obvious to employers, private or public, that it’s important to do what you can to retain your best, most experienced staff. They make life easier for you because they’re effective, attentive and often respected by those around… ...
    GreensBy David Clendon MP
    3 days ago
  • Time for NZ to prohibit the killing of great apes
    That ban was widely hailed, and spurred efforts in other countries to get similar bans. However, apes are still being exploited, abused and killed, both in captivity and in the wild. Examples of cruelty, neglect and abuse abound. Apes are… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    6 days ago
  • Auckland building consents: Tragic
    The only word to describe the latest building consent figures for Auckland is ‘tragic’, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Whatever the Government is doing to address the Auckland housing crisis, it is clearly not working. ...
    6 days ago
  • A whiff of a new biosecurity scandal?
    A pest which could create havoc for New Zealand’s horticulture and agriculture sector must be as much a focus for the Government as hunting out fruit flies, Labour’s Biosecurity spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “While the Ministry for Primary Industries is… ...
    6 days ago
  • Government shrugs off health sector crisis
    Despite new evidence showing that cuts to health spending are costing lives the Government continues to deny the sector is struggling, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “Health services in New Zealand are in crisis. ...
    7 days ago
  • Parata lowered the bar for failing charter school
    When Hekia Parata became aware that the Whangaruru charter school was experiencing major problems her first action was to drop standards by reducing the number of qualified teachers they had to employ, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins has revealed. “Hekia… ...
    7 days ago
  • National not being straight about the economy
    John Key and Bill English need to be straight with New Zealanders about the damage their failure to diversify the economy is doing, after new figures show export growth plunged due to a collapse in dairy exports, says Grant Robertson.… ...
    1 week ago
  • Mind the Gap
    This week the International Monetary Fund released a report on the wider economic value in closing the gender pay gap. When even the bastions of free-market economics start to raise concerns about gender pay gaps, we have to realise how… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • Labour will hold National to parental leave promise
    Labour will hold National to its promise to increase the support given to new parents of premature, multiple birth and babies born with disabilities, Labour’s paid parental leave campaigner Sue Moroney says. "I am naturally disappointed that after battling for… ...
    1 week ago
  • It was all just pillar talk
    Steven Joyce’s confession that he can no longer guarantee a pillar-free design for the New Zealand International Convention Centre shows the Government has abandoned its dream of creating an ‘iconic’ ‘world-class’ structure, says Labour Economic Development spokesperson David Clark. “Steven… ...
    1 week ago
  • Australians move on offshore speculators
    John Key might want to have a quiet word with Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott about Canberra's just-announced crack down on offshore speculators when he visits New Zealand this week, Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says."Tony Abbott's centre right government… ...
    1 week ago
  • Government at odds on overseas driver crashes
    National backbencher Jacqui Dean has spoken out about overseas driver crashes, putting herself at odds with Prime Minister John Key who is on record as saying it’s not a big issue, Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “I’m not surprised… ...
    1 week ago
  • Human Rights and the Palestine Crisis
    Last week I heard two Palestinians speak at Wellington events about the ongoing crisis in their country. Samar Sabawi spoke to a full house about the history of Palestine and gave us a lucid and disturbing account of the situation… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    1 week ago
  • Time to take real care of our kids
    An Amnesty International report has once again criticised New Zealand’s track record on looking after our kids, Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. The annual report, which looks at global human rights abuses highlights not only the fact that high… ...
    1 week ago
  • Manus Island and the New Zealand Government
    This week the Greens have participated in awareness activity about Manus Island, the refugee camp on an island in Papua New Guinea where Australia dumps asylum seekers. John Key says that he has every confidence in the Australian Government’s claim… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Election Inquiry – Getting accessible voting on the agenda
    James Shaw has been doing a series of blogs on the Election Inquiry into last year’s general election.  I thought this was a great opportunity to raise an issue very dear to me – accessible voting. Last year’s general election… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    2 weeks ago
  • RMA changes no solution to Christchurch housing
    Housing will continue to be a big issue in 2015. The latest Consumer Price Index, released last month, shows both good news and bad news on the housing front. After years of being the most expensive place to build a… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Saving kokako in South Auckland’s Hunua Ranges
    It is amazing that you can hear the song of the endangered North Island kokako in South Auckland’s Hunua Ranges, less than 50 kms from the central city. A heavy schedule of policy workshops at the Green Party’s Policy… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Let’s not turn a blind eye to human rights
    The Cricket World Cup has just opened in New Zealand, and it’s an opportunity for us to shine on the world stage. International sport can be a chance for us to build relationships with other countries, and examine what it… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Its Just Not Cricket
    This week it was my privilege to work with Sri Lankan Tamil communities in this country and host Australian journalist and human rights advocate Trevor Grant. I knew a bit about Trevor from his biography but I didn’t know just… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    3 weeks ago
  • Time for NZ to #BeCrueltyFree
    The Government is about to progress the final stages of the Animal Welfare Amendment bill. This will be our last opportunity to get changes made to improve the bill to ensure a better outcome for animals. I have put forwards… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    3 weeks ago
  • We want access!
    Access to buildings is a big issue for many New Zealanders. It looks like that, due to the hard work and persistence of people in the disability community, the Government may finally be starting to take access to buildings seriously.… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    3 weeks ago
  • Greens call on Super Fund to divest from fossil fuels
    The Green Party today called on the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (the Fund) to divest from fossil fuels, starting immediately with coal. The call was accompanied with a new report, Making money from a climate catastrophe: The case for divesting… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    3 weeks ago

Removed at the request of The Daily Blog.
Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere