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Back into recession

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, October 6th, 2010 - 75 comments
Categories: Economy - Tags: , , ,

NZIER has released its quarterly survey of Business Opinion and it’s bad, bad news. The survey is a very accurate forward indicator of GDP growth. For the September quarter, it shows growth of -0.2% (vs +0.2% predicted by NZIER just a month ago). That doesn’t include the impact of the Christchurch earthquake – that’s predicted to knock 0.5% off December quarter growth, which NZIER was already forecasting to be -0.2%.

Economists BERL are warning of a double-dip recession. I would say it’s past the point of warning. the ship has hit the iceberg, we’re just waiting for the damage assessment teams to come back and tell us exactly how bad it is.

It’s interesting to note the confusion in economic circles over just why the recovery here and abroad has been so weak, and why another recession is already looming. Usually, after recessions the bounce-back is nearly as fast as the fall. Not this time. Why not?

I just keep looking at the oil price. Over $80 a barrel again. Doubled in two years. Near the crucial $100 a barrel mark that causes recessions. That’s the stuff the world economy runs on, yet the effect of its price is virtually ignored by mainstream economists. No wonder they can’t work out what the problem is when their economic ideology ignores the importance of energy and assumes that there will always be plenty of resources or substitutes to fuel growth.

For the Government, this should be the final clue that you can’t just govern by smiling and waving. The economy needs leadership. We need a government focused on building a green economy now.

While we’re at it, let’s look at how Treasury has done with its GDP forecasts. Remember, the Budget came out in late May, most of the way through the second quarter of the year.

Treasury prediction Actual result/new forecast
Q1 0.80% 0.50%
Q2 0.80% 0.20%
Q3 1.60% -0.2% (NZIER)
Q4 -0.10% -0.2% (NZIER, not counting quake impact)

Considering how wildly over-optimistic Treasury’s forecasts have been so far this year and that they predicted negative growth in the December quarter, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re actually attacked by hyper-intelligent shark people.

Already, the economy is 0.9% smaller than they were predicting just four months ago and it’s likely to end the year as much as 3.1% smaller than they thought it would be. This has serious implications. Treasury’s growth predictions underpin their fiscal projections. The economy’s going to be a hell of a lot smaller than they thought and companies are going to be less profitable – that means lower tax revenue and higher benefit costs, which equals higher debt.

Once again, you’ve got to ask yourself if borrowing a billion dollars to fund tax cuts for the rich was really the smartest decision the Key government could have made.

PS. I wonder if John Key, economic wizz-kid, still believes that we’re “coming out of the recession strongly”?

75 comments on “Back into recession”

  1. Cnr Joe 1

    economic whizz kid?
    money trader i thought. smiling assassin, i heard, but economic whizz? gee
    I haven\’t given the key enough credit..

    • Marty G 1.1

      I should have used ‘irony’ marks :)

      • Zorr 1.1.1

        There was an article on Stuff yesterday (don’t have the time to dig through and find it now) with John Key specifically addressing these forecast figures and basically trying to hold back the tide by the power of will alone (and some snazzy PR)

        • Marty G 1.1.1.1

          thanks Zorr. Here’s the article: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/4198050/NZIER-confirms-double-dip-recession-fears

          god, he predicts that the economy will surge in summer.

          “My sense is we are making progress and I think there is very little chance of a double dip global recession which will help New Zealand,” Mr Key said.

          “I don’t think we should argue we are in a recession yet, we’ve had five quarters in a row of growth. But it has always going to be a fragile international environment.”

          The economic environment had been tough with the past winter.

          “My sense is that they are feeling a bit better now that summer has come, economic activity is starting to pick up.”

          Even Treasury’s Budget numbers have the December Quarter negative (-0.1%) and the NZIER September Quarterly predictions have it at -0.2% – both of those before the impact of the quake.

          .. and summer hasn’t come yet. you can’t take a word he says at face value. I guess in Hawaii it seems like summer every day :)

          • ghostwhowalksnz 1.1.1.1.1

            Funny how while hes out of the country he makes it seem like hes in NZ.

          • Bored 1.1.1.1.2

            Marty, how I love the figures of prediction ersus reality…I think we need to ask for a refund of all the treasury economists wages immediately, followed by firing for non performance. It all backs up what I say a lot, we would be better off with chicken entrail readers, tarot card readers and tea leaf inspectors. More accurate and would cost us less.

            Interestingly, as a child I listened to the vicar and his sermons before I discounted it all as a good construct based on foundations of sand. And that is precisely the problem with our current High Priests, the economists. They propose a faith based upon their perceptions of reality, which of course are viewed only to suit their constructs, so naturally they will always be wrong. Sad individuals that they can commit their whole being and lifes work to unreality.

        • ghostwhowalksnz 1.1.1.2

          Is this it
          http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/4198050/Recession-not-returning-Key

          But of course he needs to lie while doing it.

          The tax cuts on October 1 had put $4 billion into the economy which was a big stimulus.

          But of course the GST increase has taken even more out. But since when did Key know anything about finance

      • roger nome 1.1.2

        Yeah – currency trading is the bum job at Merryl Lynch. Now raising capital for vulture aquisition and restructuring – that’s where the bright people go in that organisation.

  2. Pascal's bookie 2

    The economy’s going to be a hell of a lot smaller than they thought and companies are going to be less profitable – that means lower tax revenue and higher benefit costs, which equals higher debt.

    Also, that ‘revenue neutral’ tax package is about to have it’s assumptions tested, hard. I wouldn’t have the first clue as to how to go about compiling it, but will there be an official stat somewhere about the effects of the tax changes on the deficit in the budget?

  3. BLiP 3

    Treasury prediction Actual result/new forecast

    Q1 0.80% 0.50%
    Q2 0.80% 0.20%
    Q3 1.60% -0.2% (NZIER)
    Q4 -0.10% -0.2% (NZIER, not counting quake impact)

    The differences between the actual numbers is one thing, but consider the percentage difference between the estimated and actual. Although small fry in comparison and certainly not as complex, if I got my estimates that wrong, I’d be looking for a new job. Not so if you’re an economist, eh?

    • Draco T Bastard 3.1

      From what I’ve seen, economists get paid extra for being wrong. They haven’t been right in the last 30+ years and yet they’re still employed and they’ve been getting higher than inflation wage increases. The most successful (read “richer”) work for right-wing think tanks. Apparently, telling people what the capitalists want is good for your pocket book.

  4. Choice..my rent just went up 30 bucks. Taxcut wipeout in one fell swoop

    I sure do feel no worse off….NOT !!!

    …can’t wait til summer

  5. burt 5

    Should have killed off WFF and introduced work for dole afterall. Still the lefties will be all excited as their constant voting for govt that always ends in recession shows they clearly like it when the people are poor and dependent on the state.

    • Pascal's bookie 5.1

      Because obviously what the govt needs to do is reduce all that excess demand in the economy.

    • Blighty 5.2

      yeah that’s why the number of beneficiaries went down by 120,000 under labour and the nation’s wage packet increased by 30%

    • roger nome 5.3

      Burt – when are you going to learn? Determination is no replacement for intelligence, wisdom and knowledge. You should just accept that you’re not cut out for this blogging caper. Why not focus on growing your business instead? In that area determination counts for much more than the other things i list.

    • Vicky32 5.4

      “and introduced work for dole afteral”
      And how is that supposed to have helped?
      Deb

  6. Craig Glen Eden 6

    Burt slight problem the left are not in power. Your man Key is the Prime Minister remember, I didn’t vote for this conservative approach to managing the economy.

    Most people on this sight have been saying this Government are not doing enough and if they don’t do something soon we could end up in recession again.I guess they where right.

    Is punishing the people who are already the less well off the only mantra that you can come up with? For Pete sack man your comment is irrelevant as a smile and wave PM.

    • Rob 6.1

      Still fixated on stimulus, you think you can get out of this mess by just dumping money all over the place. Imagine if the Govt had done it when you guys were demanding; we would be in a much worse state. The US is a shambles; the $750B they poured in has done nothing. I think you guys need to open your eyes and realise that dumb blind political ideology is not going to have any impact on this situation.

      Obama came on the promise of funding “shovel ready” projects. None of this happened, unemployment is over 10%, people are still leaving their homes, and manufacturing is perilous. Why don’t you front and explain exactly how you want to see how our country can recover from this mess.

      • Pascal's bookie 6.1.1

        The US is a shambles; the $750B they poured in has done nothing.

        http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=967

        That’s on the effect of the stimulus bill, from the Congressional Budget Office. So why aren’t things better?

        http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/2010/06/the-no-stimulus-economy/

        Net stimulus has been near nil once you take state level government contraction into account.

        Explain how the economy would be faring better absent federal stimulus.

        • KJT 6.1.1.1

          What would have happened if the stimulus had been to real spending instead of too the banks so they could waste it?

          • Rob 6.1.1.1.1

            It wasn’t to banks, it was presented as subsidies on a range of manufactured items, in effect they discounted prices on locally produced consumer items. The aim was to stimulate the economy.

            • KJT 6.1.1.1.1.1

              Are you saying most of the money the US Government put into the economy was not put into the finance sector?

            • Pascal's bookie 6.1.1.1.1.2

              It wasn’t to banks, it was presented as subsidies on a range of manufactured items, in effect they discounted prices on locally produced consumer items. The aim was to stimulate the economy.

              I’m not really sure what you mean by this, but the stimpak was multifaceted, a large chunk of it was in the form of tax cuts, there was also funding made available to states for infrastructure spending and payroll subsidies, research funding, all sorts of things.

              • Colonial Viper

                Well tax cuts are great if you still have a job. Roughly 20% of Americans are either unemployed or underemployed right now. 30% in some States.

                And even if you still have a job you might decide to spend your tax cuts simply by paying your credit card debt off – guess what, that stimulus aint going nowhere near the corner shops, its going straight back to the banks.

                As for State spending, Congress did not agree to get recently needed money to support State budgets. Result: lots of laid off teachers, policemen, municipal workers. Congress also failed to extend expiring unemployment benefits. Result: even less money flowing into local shops and businesses, and a sharp increase in foreclosures (dragging asset prices down further)/poverty.

                Also, best not to mix the US stimulus package with the US TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program). The latter was the ‘Wall St bail out’ that everyone talks about.

                • Pascal's bookie

                  Don’t disagree with any of that, I’ve said all along that the package was poorly constructed and probably too small. That’s different from saying it had no effect and was therefore a bad idea though, which is what I was responding to…

        • Rob 6.1.1.2

          “Explain how the economy would be faring better absent federal stimulus.”

          Who would know, I am not a futurist, however I was there last week on business for 10 days across Ohio, PA and CO. When you talk to people and see levels of activity you get a sharp realisation that the spend hasn’t worked and they are now left with having to pay for it. This has really resulted in few options left to get things going. Auto is very sad, new home building is down below 1M PA, and the value of current housing stock is through the floor. Do you honestly think that the people of the US are looking at the stimulous as being successful.

          • Pascal's bookie 6.1.1.2.1

            No one disputes that the US is in a hole. You however said that stimulus is a dead end and that the US package did nothing. I simply pointed out that, in fact, there has been very little if any stimulus in the US economy because the federal package just made up for the retrenchment by state level governments. I also pointed to CBO estimates that the federal package did have quite sizable effects. ie that without the stimpak they would be even worse off.

            If you don’t have any evidence that they would not be worse off without the simpak, then you don’t have any evidence that it did nothing.

            If your only argument is that the people of America think it didn’t work, then you haven’t got much of an argument.

  7. ianmac 7

    Funny that Treasury seems unable to predict given the tripling of their staff/consultants? Perhaps that should be crippling by tripling?

  8. KJT 8

    Time to reassess how the economy works.

    Past time for us to have control over our own economy.

    North Dakota, One of the best places to live in the States right now, Has democratic control of local banking.

    • Bored 8.1

      Interesting concept KJT, the real issue I believe in todays economy is the total disconnect between money and transactions…..I posted yesterday on Open Mike about the level of debt (extended by credit or paper manipulation of derivatives etc) worldwide that was not backed by money supply. Going local can only actually reflect transactions based upon real goods and services changing hands. The biggest single benefit of this is that bankers dont get into the act in order to do fractional acts or ticket clipping.

    • Draco T Bastard 8.2

      We definitely need to reign in banking. There’s no way that the GFC would have happened if the banks couldn’t print money with little or no limits. The ability to create money must be government only. Leaving it to the private sector invariably results in economic collapse and mass bailouts by the government of “too big to fail” private companies. Great for the rich, who get rewarded for breaking the economy, not so great for everyone else.

      • KJT 8.2.1

        Money is eventually a token of work/energy. The derivatives and finance markets have managed to expand the money supply and velocity way beyound the amount of production that is possible for a long time in the future. Without a realignment their will be a lot of pain.
        We are expected to pay for this expansion by working for less so the money supply boosted by the finance sector is sustainable. Austerity by workers so that the finance sector can keep the wealth.
        The best thing that could happen is all countries refuse to pay the debt and go back to trade with money simply as a token of exchange rather than a commodity in itself.

      • Colonial Viper 8.2.2

        Limit financial sector profits to <5% of GDP.

        That's a fair margin to make on providing basic necessary transactional and credit services to the economy.

        • burt 8.2.2.1

          And make a few very privileged operators filthy rich. Oh no that’s offensive to the ideology that decided it should 5% so lets make consumer finance a state monopoly situation and fund it from income earners to stop the race to the bottom supporting loan sharks and the like. Bloody socialists, can’t help yourself playing god with the economy can you.

          • Billy Fish 8.2.2.1.1

            Burt I am fed up with you spouting your Politically Correct drivel. It’s lefties like you that are ruining this country.
            Political Correctness gone mad!

        • Draco T Bastard 8.2.2.2

          The financial sector profits for the last few decades has been due to speculation fuelled by the fractional reserve banking system (Banks can effectively print unlimited amounts of money). Stop that and you stop speculation. The financial sector will, most likely, then drop back down into the minimal (Near zero) amount of profit that it should be getting.

          • burt 8.2.2.2.1

            And the recent collapse was also influenced by the failure of the giant state US lenders Fanny-May’s and Freddy-Mac’s. Driven by political pressure to better social indicators these institutions were driven to enabled to lend to sub prime borrowers by loosening lending requirements to improve low income home ownership rates. Speculative lending by the state results in corp bailouts, who would have figured intervention would hit the tax payer twice.

  9. john 9

    Oil is Black Gold: the fuel we obtain from it is vital for all modern economies. Oil price spikes are historically correlated with recessions. Let’s say NZ uses 250,000 barrels a day, the doubling of price to $80 means we are paying out to overseas suppliers an extra $10,000,000 a day or $3,650,000,000 a year is going out of the economy.That’s equivalent to a Canterbury Earthquake of extra cash going out of our economy : This must obviously have a depressing effect, meaning we have less money as a society to play with. Also the fuel price of exporting our produce goes up increasing sale price and coupled with depressed economies overseas due to higher fuel costs can lead to reduced demand for our products.
    Higher operating fuel costs certainly does make countries poorer. If we are getting poorer and likely to further as Oil Prices continue upwards which they will as we are past peak then borrowing money overseas at interest rates in anticipation of a recovery which will never happen is living beyond our means and channeling that money to the already well off is irresponsible “Let’s keep the Party going at all costs” and at the expense of poorer NZers as well with the regressive GST increase as well.
    I think we should be battening down the hatches for the continuing economic storm which has a long time to go yet(And with Peak Oil may not ever end but just get worse and worse) and affirming “We are all in this together” meaning we should be financially assisting poorer kiwis rather than throwing money away to rich kiwis who will take more foreign holidays exporting more and more of our hard earned wealth,not to mention consuming foreign manufactured goods such as expensive cars.

    • john 9.1

      The UK’s Oil Fiesta has come to an end. In the next 30 years they will be dismantling some 260 platforms in the North Sea which are non producers. Now the Party’s over they are in deep economic trouble. They have to import increasing amounts meaning their wealth is bleeding out to overseas suppliers.

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11472352

      • john 9.1.1

        Like here. The UK Government are making the poorer people pay with austerity measures while bailing out their paper finance sector and not touching the rich at all! The UK since Thatcher has embraced the Winners and Losers American style society:If you are a loser you deserve to lose some more that’s what losers do! They don’t go for the social cohesion we are all in this together model.

        • Bored 9.1.1.1

          Interesting thing here John, for stating the issues as they really are as opposed to the miasmic construct of popular wisdom you will I predict get slagged off, by both sides (left and right). What you have pointed out is the collective failure of the current materialist construct of reality, which encompasses the same basic system of wealth creation and finance regardless of who is running it (left or right). It is time to reassess the entire living arrangements.

    • Bored 9.2

      You are spot of john, you might have mentioned the asset values in our economy will crash as the real price of energy becomes apparent (based upon scarce money and scarce oil). The lack of real hard currency to back up the debts incurred by derivatives (in our case mortgages taken out against future asset value) will crash as energy costs take the money away from people who need to also pay interst on debt. Mass foreclosure territory.

      The nouveau riche and bloated middle classes who have had their holidays and new 4WDs on the tick via credit paid for by increasing asset values (such as the second house paid for by rent) will soon find that they become very proletarian as the receivers and repossession agents take the place of credit advancers. The future scenario is that both credit and cash will be too scarce for the sale of assets such as real estate at todays rates so asset prices will crash, expect to see a lot of negative equity.

      I suppose the above is where the rubber (of energy decline) hits the road (of the credit bubble and consequent debt obligations).

    • Draco T Bastard 9.3

      Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think

      We happen to live in a non-linear world; a core concept of the Crash Course. But far too many people expect events to unfold in a more or less orderly manner, with plenty of time to adjust along the way. In other words, linearly. The world does not always cooperate, and my concern rests on the observation that we still face the convergence of multiple trends, each of which alone has the power to permanently transform our economic landscape and standards of living.

      Three such trends (out of the many I track) that will shape our immediate future are:

      * Peak Oil
      * Sovereign insolvency
      * Currency debasement

      Individually, these worry me quite a bit; collectively, they have my full attention.

      Need to subscribe to read Part II but Part I lays out the data.

      The simple reality is that the extended boom of the last 150 years was due solely to oil and we’ve now hit the limits of oil supply. It won’t get any better from here on out but it can, and most likely will, get a lot worse. We need to stop borrowing from overseas lenders now. We also need to get all our businesses and land back into NZ ownership. If we don’t then we will be even worse off.

      • Bored 9.3.1

        tTherin lies the issue, we have squandered the time and resources we need to transition smoothly, we now are hitting the speed bumps faster than the suspension can cope, its going to happen in short sharp jolts, faster and faster until we think they are the norm.

  10. terence 10

    Marty,

    I wouldn’t race to blame oil prices just yet. After all it wasn’t oil prices that caused the great recession nor Japan’s lost decade. Paul Krugman has a pretty convincing argument, I think, that we (meaning the developed world although obviously not NZ) are used to relatively quick recoveries from recessions because many of the recessions that form our frame of reference were the products of central banks trying to squeeze inflation out of the economy. Once the inflation abated, interest rates were eased and the economy took off again. On the other hand, recessions in the wake of financial crises and the bursting of bubbles, are much more likely to linger in the absence of concerted attempts to stimulate the economy.

    None of which is to say that we shouldn’t be trying to wean off oil, of course.

    • Bored 10.1

      terence, the credit expansion was based upon an economy that could reach for the sky and prop up a bubble with real growth based upon cheap and (key point) available energy in the form of mainly oil. This made growth in production and consumption possible.

      Todays scenario is that oil supply and oil demand are diverging, we cannot as we did in 2005 pump enough oil to match demand, we now have falling supply and flat demand. Consequently any growth in production will have to cope with both more expensive energy and less of it…a scenario which will make real growth impossible, and real decline the norm. So no growth, lower consumption, deflationary times, depressed economy. In short we have not got the energy to prime the pumps.

    • Bright Red 10.2

      looks to me like the 2004-2008 oil spike caused the great recession.

      What do you think triggered the sub-prime crisis?

      • Bored 10.2.1

        Credit (promisary notes based upon repayment sometime in the future) being leveraged to create more credit being leveraged to create more credit. meanwhile the expectation is that prices will go up continuously which encourages more “investors” to take advantage of credit.Its a Ponzi scheme, eventually it must burst as the numbers able to enter the market peaks and the ability to pay enough “interest” to further extend credit dries up. Next thing, prices drop, people panic and sell low, prices drop even further, nobody buys…eeeeeeaaakkkkk!!!!!!! Thats the South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania, Louisiana Scheme, Great Depression etc etc, theres a whole pile of bubbles gone by.

        • Bright Red 10.2.1.1

          but what was the pin that burst the bubble?

          You’ve got all these subprime mortgages being used to buy mcmansions in exurbs – dormitory communities located hours away from their main city. The people living there are dependent on car travel for everything and a lot of it – drive for hours to and from work, drive to get food, drive to go anywhere.

          These people already can’t really afford their mortgages – they’re relying on capital gain. Then the rising oil price eats into their ability to pay their bills. they can’t reduce their oil dependency, some default. housee prices start to fall, they go underwater and realise that there’s no capital gains coming. more defaults.

          investors put their money in oil because it’s rising and everything else is teetering. more sub-prime mortgage holders go under – bang, subprime crisis, soon global financial crisis.

          • Bored 10.2.1.1.1

            The pin is when enough people default on mortgages in a single institution and they report trouble (i.e bankruptcy, cash flow issues, etc). The stock market or similar notices, it happens to a few too many banks etc and panic ensues. If I remember rightly in the latest case it may have been Fanny Mae and Freddie asking to be bailed out of obligations…cant remember the details.

          • Colonial Viper 10.2.1.1.2

            but what was the pin that burst the bubble?

            Really simple. When the asset bubble was at its maximum height, and one buyer looking at a way overvalued house said “thanks but no thanks” instead of “whatever debt I need to get into to buy this I will”.

            At that point, house prices started collapsing, highly leveraged derivative positions based on that asset bubble became over leveraged, losses accumulated at an astounding rate and voila!

            Bubble burst.

      • Rharn 10.2.2

        Too much credit. Sooner or later someone is going to ask for their ‘payback.’ Oil plays a part but the reality is if you keep printing money it eventually becomes near worthless

    • terence 10.3

      By the way, Paul Krugman and Robin Wells have a series of two great articles in the NYROB explaining the competing explanations for the bubble and it’s burst, and discussing what to do:

      http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/sep/30/slump-goes-why/
      http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/oct/14/way-out-slump/

      and Bored, if global oil prices oil were the issue, why are some countries recovering from the GFC so much better than others?

  11. randal 11

    maybe it is the insatiable greed of humnaity being given an enforced holiday.
    a suspension if you will.
    if peak oil is real and I believe it is so then it is going to take some more time before it bites.
    since world war one all recessions have been engineered by monetary authorities and it would be foolish to think otherwise.
    at the moment it is just paying for everything we bought on credit.
    when peak oil bites then the shite is really going to hit the fan and who knows what the outcome of that will be ?

  12. alloverrover 12

    excellent to see some discussion joining the dots between a diminishing supply of oil and the failing economy. 4 of the last 5 recessions have been due to oil shocks. Jeff Rubin former chief economist for CIBC World Markets argues persuasively that the 2008 recession was caused by peak oil not sub prime mortgages … http://www.jeffrubinssmallerworld.com/

    Meanwhile here in godzone we live in this complacent bubble thinking we are some how immune to the next oil shock. Even when two Canterbury University academics report on the impact of fuel restraint (peak oil) on New Zealand’s economy, http://oilshockhorrorprobe.blogspot.com/2010/09/peak-oil-could-halve-nzs-economy-says.html

    and project that our economy will be halved in 20 years we ignore it in the mainstream media .

    Their alarming conclusion is that with just 10% less fuel available, New Zealand’s economy would shrink by around $115 billion in just five years. If a 10% fuel restraint continued for 20 years, New Zealand economy would shrink by $412 billion compared to a business as usual scenario. Even if there modeling is out by a factor of 10 we are still in deep do doos

    there is plenty of evidence that a peak oil, and the coming oil shock will (is already ?) taking us back into recession and we have seen the end of growth . More here ..
    http://oilshockhorrorprobe.blogspot.com/p/reportsresources.html

    • Bored 12.1

      Great links thanks alloverrover. On a less pessimistic note NZ has the capacity to grow grass based protein and other crops that currently have huge energy related costs inherant for fuel, fertilisers etc. We also have a huge body of practical and scientific knowledge in the above agriculture. We can actually produce at a far lesser impact and cost what we do today on farms, simply by going to a semi “organic” methodology, i.e how we farmed before agribusiness and wonder fertilisers.

      As agribusiness worldwide collapses, and demand for food increases NZ will (if we change how we do things) again have the huge competitive advantage that made us comparatively wealthy before the 70s. Its not all down side, we have to treat it as an opportunity.

      • KJT 12.1.1

        It is not all down side. New Zealand has reserves of renewable energy and food production capacity that would make many countries envious. We have to retain ownership though.

        • alloverrover 12.1.1.1

          yes we are lucky to have renewable energy. While that may heat or light your house it’s not going to power your car or any of the other transport options that rely on oil. Peak oil is mostly about liquid fuels for transport, and 95% of NZ’s transport fleet uses liquid fuels.

          Electric cars I hear you say ? … “Even if we were to build 50,000,000 electric cars per year starting right now, it would be ten years before half the cars in the world had been replaced. And this does not even factor in the implied massive upgrades to the electrical grid and power stations, or the lithium needed for car batteries”. see Chris Martenson’s excellent blog on “Peak Oil = Peak Economy …. http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/peak-oil-peak-economy/45229

          we don’t have ten years.. the consensus is that we have 2 -5 years before the next – possibly permanent – oil crunch occurs. Not convinced ? check out the reports from credible sources here – http://oilshockhorrorprobe.blogspot.com/p/reportsresources.html

    • Draco T Bastard 12.2

      and project that our economy will be halved in 20 years we ignore it in the mainstream media.

      No it doesn’t. It shows a decline from present activity, yes (from ~$500b to ~$430b), but it most notably shows that it won’t grow as expected under the business as usual scenario. i.e. it won’t double in size over the next 20 years.

      • KJT 12.2.1

        The economy as we know it has to shrink as the present consumption is unsustainable. However with renewable energy and a more equitable distribution of NZ resources it does not mean that quality of life for individuals needs to drop overall.

        For example: If we go back to whiteware engineered for a 25 year life then we do not need to earn the cost of a new fridge every 5 years. If power is coming from tidal or hydro generation for all our energy we do not have to pay 7000 million dollars per year for fossil fuels as we do at present.

  13. M 13

    If you want to scare the crap outta yourself subscribe to Collapsenet for a month with Mike Ruppert.

    If his straight talking can’t convince you we’re about to dive off the cliff, nothing will.

    http://www.collapsenet.com/

    • Bill 13.1

      Mike Ruppert is not a well man.

      There is a documentary called ‘Collapse’ that was initially meant to be an interview with Ruppert on police corruption and drugs (from memory) but that became an hour and a half study of his psychological unravelling. It’s a shame. Because a lot of what he says is basically correct. But then, a lot of what he says is just plain wrong too.

      The main problem appears to be that he is driven by fairly obvious/identifiable levels of delusion.

      Find the film. Download it or whatever and watch it.

      • I think the movie Blind Spot is the best at explaining why most people just can not or will not accept what is happening specifically with regards to peak oil.
        I am happy to supply a copy to anyone, just email me with – DVD Standard – in the subject line .
        robert at oilcrash dot com

  14. So I guess Kiwi Saver will be a dead duck )
    The ‘I told you so’s’ are coming thick and fast these days
    Robert
    http://www.oilcrash.com

  15. Fisiani 15

    If there is a double dip recession then the kneecapping of the economy committed by the scorched earth policy of Labour in 2008 was truly economic treason.

    • Armchair Critic 15.1

      Is this the same scorched earth policy that left NZ with a lot less debt than there would otherwise have been if National had got in back in 2005 and borrowed to fund their taxcuts? Or is that sentence too complex for you to comprehend?
      Would it be simpler if I found a quote from Bill English saying Labour left NZ in a good position to weather the GFC?

    • Colonial Viper 15.2

      National know how to game the economy and siphon off riches, but they really don’t know how to run anything productively much bigger than a corner store.

  16. john 16

    Short video report showing European workers are protesting in the streets against cuts to their living standards,why should they the wealth producers having to accept austerity cuts: they think the rich should pay. They don’t buy the NeoLiberal garbage,that the rich should pay less and less tax never more. This contrasted to the wimpish American reaction who are too scared to protest due to their police state and you can get locked up for next to nothing-US is a fascist state.Has this historical action been reported here? Just briefly,”News is entertainment” says Bill Ralston
    http://www.zcommunications.org/european-workers-distance-from-us-through-action-by-richard-d-wolff

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  • Maori Television fears confirmed – Harawira
    ...
    Mana | 12-09
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    Mana | 10-09
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    Mana | 09-09
  • Housing in Waiariki – Sykes
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    Mana | 09-09
  • Charter school crisis shows time to axe costly experiment
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    Labour | 08-09
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    Labour | 08-09
  • Let’s do the FEED before the weed
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    Mana | 08-09
  • TE KAEA and NATIVE AFFAIRS live to fight another day
    “I understand that both the chair of the Board of Maori Television, Georgina Te Heuheu, and new CEO, Paora Maxwell, are now saying that my comments this morning about their plans to cut Te Kaea and Native Affairs, were wrong, and that...
    Mana | 08-09
  • How come the PM only pays 2.8% of his income in tax – Harawira
    “Before John Key talks about the piddling tax cuts he plans for low and middle income families today he needs to explain why he only pays 2.8% of his income on tax while a minimum wage worker pays 28% tax,”...
    Mana | 07-09
  • THE DEATH OF INDEPENDENCE FOR MAORI TV
    “If what I’m hearing is true, tomorrow Maori Television Service (MTS) will dump its news programme, Te Kaea, and staff will lose their jobs” said MANA Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau, Hone Harawira “and the Minister of Maori...
    Mana | 07-09
  • Labour recommits to Pike River families
    An incoming Labour-led government will do everything possible to recover the bodies of the Pike River Miners and return them to their families, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “This tragedy and its aftermath has left the families of the 29...
    Labour | 06-09
  • Voting has started and still no tax plan or fiscal budget for voters to see
    "Even though voting for the election has already begun, National still refuses to provide any details of its proposed tax cuts. And Bill English admitted this morning that he won’t provide any specifics until after the election", Labour’s Finance spokesperson...
    Labour | 06-09
  • National’s partners’ tax plans cost at least $42 billion
    If National forms the next government its partners’ tax plans will cost the country at least $42 billion, and maybe as much as $50 billion, wreaking havoc with the books, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker. “National claims to be...
    Labour | 05-09
  • Labour: Providing more opportunities for young Kiwis
    A Labour Government will ensure every young Kiwi under the age of 20 is given the opportunity to be in work, education or training, and plans to develop a conservation apprenticeship scheme to help do that, Labour’s Youth Affairs spokesperson...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Candles out on teachers’ slice of birthday cake
    Today may be Novopay’s second birthday, but there’s little to celebrate, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Novopay has cost the taxpayer tens of millions of dollars already, and the cost is still climbing....
    Labour | 04-09
  • National’s blatant broadband pork barrelling misses the mark by a country...
    National’s blatant pork-barrelling ICT announcement today should reinforce a growing sceptical electorate’s view that they are all about the gift wrap and not the present, Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran says. “Instead of addressing the real issues - the woeful...
    Labour | 04-09
  • More evidence of the need to clean up the system
    The latest release of emails and messages between disgraced Minister Judith Collins and blogger Cameron Slater are more evidence of the urgent need to clean up politics, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. "This new evidence confirms a near constant flow...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Labour commits to stable funding for voluntary sector
    A Labour Government will establish long-term funding and streamline contract accountability for community and voluntary groups, says Labour’s spokesperson for the sector Louisa Wall. Announcing Labour’s policy for the community and voluntary sector, she said this would give much greater...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Better trained and skilled workforce under Labour
    Labour is committed to a skilled workforce that benefits businesses as well as their workers, and will increase workplace training to improve productivity and drive innovation, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Labour believes the Government should support New Zealanders into...
    Labour | 03-09
  • Labour will make renting a better option
    Labour will provide greater security of tenure for renters, and build more state and social housing, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Labour believes every kid deserves a decent start in life. That means a warm, dry and secure home....
    Labour | 03-09
  • At least 15 new taxes under National
    John Key is the last person to talk about creating taxes, presiding over a Government that has imposed at least 15 new taxes, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “John Key tried a novel line in the debate last night claiming...
    Labour | 03-09
  • Labour will strengthen New Zealand’s democracy
    A Labour Government will act quickly to protect and enhance New Zealand’s reputation as one of the most open and least corrupt countries in the world, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “The health of any democracy is improved by greater...
    Labour | 02-09
  • MANA Movement says tax cut on GST must be first priority – Minto
    “If Prime Minister John Key has money available for tax cuts then cutting GST must be the first priority”,  said MANA Movement Economic Justice Spokesperson John Minto. GST is a nasty tax on low-income families”, said Minto. “People in the...
    Mana | 02-09
  • The Maori Party’s Mana-Enhancing Relationship with National – Minto
    “First we had Cameron Slater and David Farrar backing Labour’s Kelvin Davis bid to unseat MANA Movement Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Hone Harawira.  Now we have Slater writing a pro-Te Ururoa Flavell article on his website, Whale...
    Mana | 02-09
  • There’s Only One Poll That Counts
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    Mana | 02-09
  • Local communities critical to Civil Defence
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    Labour | 02-09
  • Labour looks to long-life passports, gambling harm review
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    Labour | 02-09
  • MANA Movement Leadership stands strong behind Internet MANA relationship
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    Mana | 01-09
  • Rebuilding the New Zealand Defence Force
    A Labour Government will make it a priority to rebuild the capacity of the Defence Force to carry out the tasks expected of it, says Labour’s Defence Spokesperson Phil Goff. Releasing Labour’s Defence Policy today he said the NZDF has...
    Labour | 01-09
  • Speech to Canterbury Chamber of Commerce
    Today I'm going to talk about our policy package to upgrade and grow our economy and how we turn that growth into a foundation for a decent and fair society. But first I want to address the issue of our...
    Labour | 01-09
  • Commission of Inquiry must have bipartisan support
    The Labour Party is drafting terms of reference for a Commission of Inquiry, Labour’s Shadow Attorney-General David Parker says. “It is abundantly clear there is a need for an independent Commission of Inquiry, chaired by a High Court Judge, into...
    Labour | 01-09
  • Rapid Transit to unclog Christchurch
    Labour will build a 21st century Rapid Transit system for Christchurch, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “The long delayed recovery of Christchurch hinges on a modern commuter system for the city. “We will invest $100 million in a modern rail plan...
    Labour | 31-08
  • Live blog: Bainamarama takes commanding lead in Fiji elections
      Interview with Repúblika editor Ricardo Morris and Pacific Scoop’s Mads Anneberg. PACIFIC SCOOP TEAM By Ricardo Morris, Mads Anneberg, Alistar Kata and Biutoka Kacimaiwai in Suva WHILE the results are provisional at this stage, it is clear today that...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • 5AA Australia: NZ Elections Two Days To Go! + Edward Snowden + Julian Assan...
    Recorded live on 18/09/14 – Captured Live on Ustream at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/multimedia-investments-ltd 5AA Australia’s Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning deliver their weekly bulletin: Across The Ditch. This week, they discuss the latest news as New Zealanders go to the polls on...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • What has Colin Craig done for his Press Secretary to quit 2 days before ele...
    This is VERY strange.  Colin Craig’s Press Secretary Rachel McGregor, has quit 2 days before the election, allegedly telling ZB that Colin Craig was a “very manipulative man”. I’ve met Rachel many times in the past as Colin’s Press Secretary, she is...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • “If you want steak, go to the supermarket and buy steak,” – A brief w...
    “If you want steak, go to the supermarket and buy steak,” said Key in the final leaders debate. Problem of course is that the 250 000 – 285 000 children living in poverty can not afford steak, milk, butter, eggs...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • National’s final bash of beneficiaries before the election
    On cue, whenever National feel threatened, they roll out a little bennie bash just to keep their redneck voter base happy. Nothing like a bit of raw meat policy to keep National voters focused on the evil threat solo parents...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • With All Of This In Mind, I Vote
    This is my last blog before the election and I really just want to speak from the heart. Right now in this country it seems to me that a lot of people consider the “essentials” in life to be simply...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Left has to vote strategically this election
    The dedication, loyalty, and tribalism of party politics means that sometimes the left lets itself down by not voting strategically. We all want our favoured party to get maximum votes, naturally, but the winner-takes-all approach doesn’t always suit multi-party left...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Dear NZ – as you enter the polling booth, stand up for your rights
    The last days before a NZ general election are a busy time as politicians make their pitch and party activists prepare to get out the vote. It is sort of weird watching from the distance of Europe the strangest election...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • What is Waihopai, John, if it isn’t a facility for “mass surveillance...
    John Key assured us on RNZ’s Nine to Noon programme yesterday that “In terms of the Fives Eyes data bases… yes New Zealand will contribute some information but not mass wholesale surveillance.” How does this square with the operation of the...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Catherine Delahunty – Mass Surveillance and the Banality of E...
    Renowned journalist and intellectual Hannah Arendt coined the phrase “the banality of evil” to describe the normalisation of genocide in Nazi Germany. I thought of her phrase when I was listening to Glenn Greenwald and other international whistle-blowers talking about...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Election. Down. To. The. Wire
    Funny how last week it was John Key winning by 50%, now it’s neck and neck. I have always believed this election would be down to the wire and it is proving so. The flawed landline opinion polls the mainstream...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • 3rd Degree uses Whaleoil for story ideas as if Dirty Politics never happene...
    TV3s 3rd Degrees smear job on Kim Dotcom last night doesn’t bear much repeating. It was pretty pathetic journalism from a team who have brought us some great journalism in the past. It is sad to see 3rd Degree stooping...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Live blog: Bainimarama takes early lead in Fiji’s election
    Pacific Scoop’s Alistar Kata reports from yesterday’s voting. By Alistar Kata of Pacific Scoop in Suva Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama took an early lead in provisional results in the Fiji general election last night. With provisional results from 170 out...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Has The NSA Constructed The Perfect PPP?
    Former intelligence analyst and whistleblower, Edward Snowden – speaking live to those gathered at the Auckland Town Hall on Monday September 17, 2014. Investigation by Selwyn Manning. THE PRIME MINISTER JOHN KEY’s admission on Wednesday that whistleblower Edward Snowden “may...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • No way – Key admits Snowden is right
    After claiming there was no middle ground. After claiming there was no mass surveillance. After calling Glenn Greenwald a henchman and a loser. After all the mainstream media pundits screamed at Kim’s decision to take his evidence to Parliamentary Privileges...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Bad luck National
    ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • The incredible changing John Key story on mass spying – why the Moment of...
    While the mainstream media continue to try and make the Moment of Truth about Kim’s last minute decision to prolong his battle against John Key past the election into the Privileges Committee, the reality is that the Moment of Truth...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Themes of the Campaign
    There’s one area of a political campaign that just about everyone, at some point, falls afoul of. The campaign song. I’m not sure quite why it is, but it seems to be almost impossible for political parties to come up...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • GUEST BLOG – Denis Tegg – The NSA slides that prove mass surveillance
    The evidence presented by Glenn Greenwald and Edward Snowden on The Intercept of mass surveillance of New Zealanders by the GCSB is undeniable, and can stand on its own. But when you place this fresh evidence in the context of...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • Ukraine, United Kingdom, Ireland, Scotland
    The Ukrainian civil war discomforts me. It seems to me the most dangerous political crisis since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. And it’s because of our unwillingness to examine the issues in a holistic way. We innately prefer to...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • John Key’s love affair with a straw man – the relationship intensifies
    John Key’s love affair with the straw man is now a fully-committed relationship. It’s now the first love of his life. Sorry Bronagh. Yesterday I pointed to Key’s constant assurances that there is no mass surveillance of New Zealanders by...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • A brief word on why Wendyl Nissen is a hero
    Wendyl Nissen is a hero. The sleazy black ops attack on her by Slater and Odgers on behalf of Grocery Council chief executive Katherine Rich is sick. All Nissen is doing in her column is point out the filth and...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • She saw John Key on TV and decided to vote!
    . . NZ, Wellington, 15 September – ‘Tina’* is 50, a close friend,  and one of the “Missing Million” from the last election. In fact, ‘Tina’ has never voted in her life.  Not once. In ‘Tina’s’ own words, politics has...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • Eminem sues National Party for unlawful use of ‘Lose yourself’ bhahahah...
    …ahahahahahahahaha. Oh Christ this is hilarious… National Party sued over Eminem copyright infringment US rapper Eminem is suing the National Party for allegedly breaching copyright by using his song Lose Yourself in its campaign advertisements. The Detroit-based publishers of Eminem’s...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • Are the Greens about to be snookered by a Labour-NZ First Government?
    I wrote last week that it was smart politics that the Greens pointed out they could work with National, the soft blue vote that’s looking for a home in the wake of Dirty Politics isn’t going to Labour, so the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • BLOGWATCH: Fonterra join 2Degrees and boycott Whaleoil
    In the wake of Dirty Politics, advertisers are pulling their advertising out of Whaleoil. PaknSave, Evo Cycles Pukekohe, Localist, 2 Degrees, Fertility Associates, iSentia, NZ Breast Cancer Foundation, Maori TV, Bookme.co.nz, Dobetter.co.nz and the Sound are now joined by Fonterra...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • PM Key accused of allowing secret ‘spook’ cable sensors to spy on citiz...
    Pulitzer prize-winning journalist Glenn Greenwald (left) and Kim Dotcom at the “moment of truth” political surveillance meeting in Auckland last night. Image: PMW By ANNA MAJAVU of Pacific Media Watch NEW ZEALAND Prime Minister John Key has been accused of...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Fiji pre-election ‘politics’ blackout stirs media protests, frustration
    BLACKOUT DAY – Monday, day one of the “silence window” in Fiji leading up to the close of polling in the general election at 6pm on Wednesday. And this is under the draconian threat of a $10,000 fine or five...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • “Now the work of movements begins”: government corruption, media bias, ...
    I am so tired of the dirty politics of the National government, aren’t you? I am tired of John Key and his pathetic attacks on award-winning journalists who have spent their careers fighting and digging for truth and good. The...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Moment of Truth review, smoking guns and the awful coverage by the NZ msm
      There were queues unlike any the Town Hall has seen, 1000 were turned away once it became full…     …full to the rafters. The energy and atmosphere within the room was extraordinary, and it begun…   …Glenn Greenwald...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Why Maori TV’s Te Tai Tokeraou Poll will be proved wrong
    If Hone Harawira had a dollar every time the media wrote off his chance of winning Te Tai Tokeraou, he would have more money than Kim Dotcom. Remember the by-election? Hone was 1 point ahead of Kelvin in an exact...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • September 15 RNZ interviews – and then the Moment of Truth
    . Acknowledgement: Emmerson . 15 September – Leading up to the Moment of Truth public meeting this evening, these Radio NZ interviews are worth listening to; . Alt link . Alt link . Alt link . Alt link . Alt...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Live Stream: Moment of Truth Tonight 7pm
    Live Video Stream by eCast: The Daily Blog will Live Stream the Moment of Trust public meeting from 7pm. The meeting will feature Glenn Greenwald, Kim Dotcom, Robert Amsterdam, and a very special guest…...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • The proof Key lied about GCSB mass surveillance
    And we start getting to the evidence that proves Key has lied about mass surveillance. The article by Glenn Greenwald is out and it is beyond damning… Documents provided by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden show that the government worked in...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • A brief word on the Ede-Slater emails
    Every day I have rushed to read the paper to see if a breaking story on the Ede-Slater emails had broken yet. They haven’t. Day after day, where are these emails? We know Rawshark sent the emails to David Fisher...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • The email that proves Key is a liar
    This is the Email proving Key knew about Kim Dotcom before he claims he did… “We had a really good meeting with the Prime Minister. He’s a fan and we’re getting what we came for. Your groundwork in New Zealand...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Henchmen
    Henchmen...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Why it simply isn’t credible that Key stepped in and shut down the mass s...
    Key’s staggering admission that yes there was a year long business model by the GCSB to mass spy on all of NZ but  that he stepped in and shut it down after Cabinet had signed it off just sounds like make...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • John Key’s love affair with a straw man
    Politicians like putting up straw men for the purpose of self-righteously knocking them over. Prime Minister John Key has a particular straw man he loves to punch over. He raises it whenever he’s asked about mass surveillance of New Zealanders...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • John Armstrong turns on Glenn Greenwald
    Where does a mediocre journalist like John Armstrong get off attacking a journalist with the credibility of Glenn Greenwald as he has in his ridiculous column today? Armstrong has the audacity to try and play the terrorism card to justify why...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Denis Tegg – Which of John Key’s many statements on the GC...
    We already have Glenn Greenwald’s assertion on The Nation that John Key has misled New Zealanders as to whether the GCSB has engaged in mass surveillance of Kiwis. But Key has made many other statements about the GCSB’s powers and...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Election 2014: Numbers and Faces
    Democratic politics is a game of numbers and faces. How can we translate the numbers into the 120 or more faces that will be in the next Parliament? Below is my prediction of a likely result: 120 people, divided by...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Scotland the brave
    The possibility that Scotland will vote for independence this Thursday has panicked the British establishment. An unholy alliance of Tory, Labour, Liberal and corporate leaders has resorted to fear-mongering and bullying on grand scale in a last ditch effort to...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Why Key’s denials sound so off and why Dotcom’s fight is all our fight
    The shrillness of Key is the issue. His denials just too forced and rehearsed. Key has gone from Hollow Man to Shallow Man with his lashing out at Pulitzer Price winning Journalist Glenn Greenwald by calling him a ‘henchman’. This...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Letters to the Editor – Spies, Lies, Five Eyes, and other matters on a S...
    . . Sharing a few thoughts and observations with newspaper editors around the country… . from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com>to: Sunday Star Times <letters@star-times.co.nz>date: Sun, Sep 14, 2014 subject: Letter to the Editor . The Editor Sunday Star Times . Our...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Letters to the Editor – Spies, Lies, Five Eyes, and other matters on a Su...
    . . Sharing a few thoughts and observations with newspaper editors around the country… . from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com>to: Sunday Star Times <letters@star-times.co.nz>date: Sun, Sep 14, 2014 subject: Letter to the Editor . The Editor Sunday Star Times . Our...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • As TDB predicted, Labour to use universal super fund to buy back assets and...
    Greens about to be snookered again?   As The Daily Blog has pointed out several times now, Labour will use a universal super fund to buy back NZs assets in a bid to offer Winston a legacy project… Labour plans...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • A lesson in caring for our most vulnerable
    Some of the comments on this article make me sick. Because I am so very much over people who think they are better than others because things have gone their way in life and think those who aren’t as functional...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – Please vote positive
    One of the features of campaigning is the meet-the-candidates event.  As an opportunity to present policies to the voter, they aren’t the best vehicle but still serve a useful purpose.  The problem is that there are too many candidates and...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • For this who don’t vote this election
    For this who don’t vote this election...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • Women’s Suffrage Movement – Get Out and Vote!
    Tomorrow, Friday 19th September, MANA Movement Candidate for Waiariki, Annette Sykes, will cast her vote at 12 noon at the Zen’s Building, Rotorua. This will follow a march through Rotorua that will assemble at 10am at City Focus, Rotorua. The...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • iPredict Daily Update
    David Cunliffe and Labour have made gains over the last 24 hours, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict, but John Key’s National is still strongly expected to lead the next...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Conservative’s Proposal to Abolish Parole Fatally Flawed
    The Conservative Party’s proposal to abolish parole doesn't stack up, however which way you look at it, concludes Kim Workman in Rethinking Crime and Punishment latest blog, ‘Abolishing Parole and Other Crazy Stuff’ at http://blog.rethinking.org.nz/2014/09/krill-and-womble-independent-policy.html...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Special Edition : The letter 18 September 2014
    Dr Jamie Whyte has been giving thoughtful speeches largely unreported. So we thought we would put out an edited version on the speech he gave yesterday. The full speech is on the website....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Differences in educational level reflected in voter choice
    Differences in educational level reflected in voter preferences The Green party has the highest proportion of tertiary educated supporters and NZ First has the least according to an analysis by the Election Data Consortium. The Consortium is made...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Renters need assistance to improve poor housing conditions
    Thursday 18 September 2014 Renters are living in poorer conditions than homeowners and are less empowered to improve their housing situation according to a study by medical students at the University of Otago, Wellington. The fourth year medical...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Pacific Island Affairs & NZ Police to work more closely
    The Ministry of Pacific Island Affairs Chief Executive, Pauline Winter, and The Commissioner of Police, Mike Bush, are this afternoon signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Ministry and the New Zealand Police....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Te Hira Paenga sets the record straight
    In recent days there has been much speculation about my campaign in Te Tai Tokerau. Some commentators have suggested that I should step down or endorse the Labour candidate in an attempt to stop the Internet Party riding on the...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Last Chance to Enrol to Vote – Don’t Miss Out
    Last Chance to Enrol to Vote – Don’t Miss Out If you’re not enrolled now, you need to hurry or you won’t be able to vote in this Saturday’s general election. “Election day is almost here, and it’s your last...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Stuart Nash voted against wishes of Napier Electorate
    Napier Conservative Party Candidate Garth McVicar says the recent decision by the Advertising Standards Authority in reply to a complaint laid by Stuart Nash’s campaign manager confirms that Nash voted against the wishes of the Napier electorate. Robert...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • What price life asks Conservative Party
    The Conservative Party are asking what is the price of life if the killer of a defenceless homeless man who was viciously beaten and left to die was jailed for just 11 and a half years....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • National Stands To Lose Votes If Animal Welfare Is Ignored
    SAFE has presented Prime Minister John key with a 40,000 signature-strong petition calling for a farrowing crate ban....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Statement From Kim Dotcom
    Tonight Third Degree broadcast issues raised by three former staff members who are in dispute with us....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Three Internet-Mana Policies Blow the Bribe-O-Meter to Bits
    The Taxpayers’ Union has received advice that the cost of just three Internet-Mana policies is $17.6 billion - higher than the entire policy packages of the three main political parties combined. Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Pregnancy Help Welcomes Green Party Packs for Newborn Babies
    Pregnancy Help applauds Metiria Turei acknowledging that “for many parents the birth of a new child is a highly stressful and financially straining time” and the desire for every child to thrive....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • McVicar Welcomes ASA Decision
    Napier Conservative Party Candidate Garth McVicar welcomes the Advertising Standards Authority’s decision to not uphold the pamphlet complaint of Robert Johnson, Campaign Manager for Napier Labour candidate Stuart Nash. The ASA acknowledged that one complaint...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Whyte: In 12 months’ time, here is what will matter
    In three days’ time I will be elected along with a number of ACT MPs. I think the media will be surprised and ask how it happened?...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Internet MANA Will Grant Special Residency to Edward Snowden
    Internet MANA will put the case to the new government to welcome global surveillance whistle blower Edward Snowden, granting him safe passage and residency in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Ten millionth traveller uses SmartGate
    The 10 millionth traveller to pass through SmartGate, Customs’ automated passenger processing system, was greeted by Customs Manager Passenger Operations, Peter Lewis today at Auckland International Airport....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Key vs. Cunliffe: Final Live NZ Election Reactor 7pm Tonight
    John Key and David Cunliffe go head to head for the last time tonight and you can decide who wins by driving the worm. This is the last live Election Reactor covering the debate tonight at 7pm on TV One....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Offenders Get Road Safety Message
    Wellington Community Corrections partnered with emergency services, government agencies, organisations and Kapiti Coast District Council to deliver an innovative road safety programme to 70 community-based offenders at Southwards Car Museum on Tuesday 16...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Proposed law to decriminalise Abortion
    http://images.tvnz.co.nz/tvnz_images/news2011/politics_news/12/q_a_interview__list_mp_jan_logie_n2.jpgRight to Life is disappointed that the Green Party is refusing to provide a response to the seven very important questions that have been addressed to Jan Logie, spokesperson...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Election 2014 Will Be Costly
    The Taxpayers’ Union has today released the final update for its ' Bribe-O-Meter ' election costing website in the lead-up to Saturday’s general election. Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says:...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Roy Morgan Poll September 17
    John Key set to win narrow election victory on Saturday as Labour/Greens slump puts Winston Peters in powerful position as NZ First surge to 8% Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, up 1.5%) set to win a...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Wahakura Package would provide warm welcome for babies
    The Greens Wahakura Welcome package announced yesterday is a wonderful example of child-centred policy which would help all children get a fair and equal start in life, says Child Poverty Action Group. CPAG health spokesperson Innes Asher says,...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • TPPA a Sellout to American Corporate Greed
    New Zealand will become a permanent prisoner to the United States’ greed and global arrogance if the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) isn’t stopped, warns Internet MANA....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Wintry showers and blustery winds for Election Day
    As we head towards the weekend, it is time to look at what the weather will be for New Zealand's "Have Your Say" Day....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • New national secretary announced
    The PSA is pleased to announce the appointment of Erin Polaczuk to the role of national secretary....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Public Secotr & TISA: On the cusp of something very special?
    Is the National Party keeping some things out of sight in case they frighten the electorate? Here is some worrying evidence that this may be the case....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • MPI ups yacht biosecurity ante
    Yachts arriving in Northland from overseas this season will face greater biosecurity scrutiny, says the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI)....
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • iPredict Election Update
    John Key’s National Party now has an 88% probability of leading the next government , most probably with the support of NZ First, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. There...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • Crowdfunding to Save Native Fish
    NZ Landcare Trust is offering an exciting project designed to assist native fish, as part of the launch of a new global crowdfunding category called 'The Landcare & Environment Collection.' This exciting step, aims to help raise funds and support,...
    Scoop politics | 17-09
  • New methods needed to reach non-voters
    Non-voters are much heavier users of the internet than those who do vote, while 43 per cent of non-voters say they never read a newspaper according to research released today by the Election Data Consortium....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Parties sent home with report cards
    More than 2000 New Zealanders came together to run a full page ad in the Herald today asking all Parties what they will commit to do to clean up politics. The answers are in, and ActionStation has graded Parties on...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • One in 10 Kiwis want Winston Peters to Run the Country -Poll
    New Zealand First leader, Winston Peters has seen his personal popularity reach a three-year high in the final 3News/Reid Research poll ahead of Election Day....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Shut Down This Govt Not Kaiti WINZ
    "I’m going to make it as hard for you to get help as I can" is Paula Bennett’s message to the people of Kaiti said MANA candidate Te Hāmua Nikora today in response to the news that National will close...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • New methods needed to reach non-voters
    Non-voters are much heavier users of the internet than those who do vote, while 43 per cent of non-voters say they never read a newspaper according to research released today by the Election Data Consortium....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Conservatives Break Through 5% Threshold
    Reports in today’s Dominion Post that the Conservative Party is polling at 6% in Nationals internal polling are not surprising says the Conservative Napier candidate Garth McVicar....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • The MANA Plan for Beneficiaries and Income in Waiariki
    Median Personal Income for Waiariki is $21,700. Over 13,000 Maori who live in Waiariki rely upon a form of government benefit including the Unemployment Benefit, Sickness Benefit, Domestic Purpose Benefit and the Invalids Benefit....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • IGIS: No Indiscriminate Interception of NZers’ Data Found
    “As part of my role as Inspector-General, I review whether the GCSB complies with the restrictions upon interception of New Zealanders’ communications and with the requirement to intercept communications only for authorised purposes. That review...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Conservatives Break through 5% Threshold
    Reports in today’s Dominion Post that the Conservative Party is polling at 6% in Nationals internal polling are not surprising says the Conservative Napier candidate Garth McVicar....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Hundreds of Students Turn Out for Political Debate
    With only a few days left before the general election, over 500 Victoria students packed the central Hub space on campus today to listen to a political debate on student issues organised by the Students’ Association. Victoria University of Wellington...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Ex-prisoners make most of mentoring to make most of life
    It’s not every day that an organisation triples a programme in size, but PARS Inc (formerly known as the Prisoners’ Aid and Rehabilitation Society of the Auckland District Inc) has managed to do just that with their Community Mentoring Scheme,...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Unscrupulous worker highlights why 90-days works
    Federated Farmers believes the experience of a husband and wife farming team in Taranaki underscores why the 90-days provision is so important to small businesses. “Yesterday a member called 0800 FARMING to alert us to a guy doing the rounds...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Eye to Eye Uploaded
    Leading Maori broadcaster and political commentator Willie Jackson previews Eye to Eye Uploaded, a multi-platform series of interviews that he’s aiming to put in front of media radars next year....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Party Rankings against Inequality
    Revealed: which party will do the most to reduce New Zealand’s growing inequality crisis...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Maritime Union backs change of Government
    The Maritime Union says a change of Government is required to deliver secure jobs and decent wages for New Zealand workers....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Green Party package for newborns welcomed
    16 September 2014 Media Release The New Zealand College of Midwives has welcomed a policy announced today by the Green Party which would provide a package of essential items for every newborn baby. The College is a non partisan organisation...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • ALCP Release Election Manifesto
    The Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party has released its manifesto in the lead up to the election on Saturday....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Election Daily Update #9
    John Key’s National Party appears to have received a major boost from last night’s “Moment of Truth” event, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Despite no major changes...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
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