The Greens are entirely list based and their relationship with Labour makes ACT and National look like star crossed lovers – and Anderton has given up any illusion that he has a political party. You lot scared off the Maori and it seems everybody wants to be in bed with the only show in town.

Must be hard being in opposition Lprent. You might want to know something about a subject before you write it eh?

ACT has avoided that threshold pothole for the last two elections because of Epsom. I suspect that it not going to happen this time. The centrally imposed super-shitty which has no mandate apart from Rodney Hide and his ‘judgment’ is highly unpopular in Auckland and even in Epsom. If he’d bothered to follow some of the major recommendations of the royal commission then he’d have probably gotten away with it. However Rodney and ACT are now directly associated with imposing a very stupid Wellington solution on Aucklanders.

I suspect that ACT really need to hit the threshold this time or they’re toast.

Of course it does rather avoid the question raised in the posts. But avoiding things that are actually critical is such a substantive part of National party politics that he really does look like a Nat politico.

http://aucklandblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/setting-record-straight.html

Unforunately, as we know with the whole global warming debate, trends depend hugely on when you start measuring them.

If you measure the trend from when ACT was formed, then it’s slightly downwards:

96 – 8 seats
99 – 9 seats
02 – 9 seats
05 – 2 seats
08 – 5 seats

If you measure from 02 then it’s very downwards.

If you measure from 05, then it’s very upwards.

If you measure the last 3 years (mid-election to mid election) it’s slightly upwards (as i said earlier, 1.5-2% now instead of 0.5%).

If you measure since the 08 election then it’s hugely downwards, 4% down to 1.5-2% in just a year.

Just saying “look at the trends” is as useless as an individual poll.

What is clear is that:

1) ACT have more than double the MPs they had 3 years ago.
2) ACT’s internal organisation and external activity is much better than 3 years ago.
3) ACT’s polling is much better than it was 3 years ago.
4) The political climate is much more favourable to ACT now than it was 3 years ago (people voted National just to get rid of Labour, now they’ll be asking why National hasn’t changed Labour’s policies).

As I said earlier, I don’t expect to convince you, but i’d say the evidence is clear. You could even say the science is settled.

However a number of instances of the same poll are of interest because they show a trend in the polling sample technique even if the values themselves are crap.

Now when you look at the last decade, when was the last time that ACT managed to get more than 5% in a general election? When did they get more then 5% in any of the polls for more than say 3 of the same polls. That is pretty strong trend that you’re wanting to change in less than 2 years.

There is only one poll that counts for absolute values – that in 2011. However it looks to me like the ACT party survives in parliament only with the grace of the National party in 2011.

First, that reliance depends on ACT getting less than 5%. It’ll be tough, but I think ACT can get higher than that.

Second, hang on, The Standard look at polling now? ACT are polling between 1.5% and 2% at the moment. Sure I’d like it to be higher, but everyone knows smaller parties do worse between elections and then pick up support during the campaign.

Between 05 and 08, ACT polled an average of 0.5%, and received 3.75% at the 08 election.

I guess we’ll just have to wait and see what we get in 11.

If Rodney was causing any major problems, perhaps, but so far he’s been easy enough to control.

As long as the Nats give Epsom to Rodney they get 5 right-wing MPs for the price of one. I can’t see them throwing that away in a hurry.

Besides – 5 seats? What dream world are you living in. The trend in the polling indicates that ACT is likely to head towards being a 1-2 seat party next election if and only if National throws them a seat for their favorite poodle. Even then I’m not sure that Hide would win Epsom.

This is just a wet dream by Labour MPs/supporters as it’s about the only way you’ll get anywhere near the treasury benches next year.