Written By: - Date published: 11:49 am, May 11th, 2012 - 20 comments
We’re in a second mini-recession/stall since the Great Recession began in 2008. As in 2010, oil prices ramped up and growth petered out. Now, oil prices have dropped back a little. But the moment the economy shows mild signs of life, they’ll be back up again. Short periods of weak growth, oil price shocks, recessions – sounds like the cycle peak oil economists have predicted for years.
Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, May 3rd, 2012 - 92 comments
Last week, the IMF warned that oil prices will double over and above inflation in the next decade. The Greens crunched the numbers and say that means we’ll be paying $5 a litre for petrol in 2022. If it wasn’t clear before, it is now. A handful of white elephant highways is a poor use of $14 billion, especially when petrol is only getting more expensive.
Written By: - Date published: 7:56 am, April 25th, 2012 - 79 comments
Molly Melhuish was one of dozens of oral submitters on the Privatising Your Assets Mixed Ownership Model Bill yesterday – all opposed. Her research shows the average price of power from a private provider is 3.31 c/kWh higher than from an SOE. Contact Energy’s boss says private investors need prices to rise even more. The implication is privatisation will remove the shackles.
Written By: - Date published: 8:24 pm, March 31st, 2012 - 31 comments
OK – so we’re a bit late with this – but it’s Earth Hour, 8:30 – 9:30pm NZ time.
Written By: - Date published: 12:28 pm, March 20th, 2012 - 101 comments
Barack Obama will be breathing a sigh of relief after David Farrar endorsed his call to end oil subsidies. It seems the 3rd oil price spike in 5 years is getting the attention of even the Right. Something, they’ve got an inkling, is wrong and rising petrol prices are here to stay. Pity that, on the cusp of revelation, Farrar opts for the security blanket of neoclassical economics.
Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, March 4th, 2012 - 106 comments
Israel and the US have both been ratcheting up their rhetoric against Iran in the past few months and an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities looks highly likely. Just the other day, Obama told Iran to stop its nuclear programme or else adding, “I don’t bluff”. I really, really hope he’s bluffing. Because Iran’s ready to make an attack on it cost the world big time.
Written By: - Date published: 9:50 am, March 2nd, 2012 - 136 comments
So, National wants to re-assure us that, when they sell our assets against our will, they’ll keep 51% and control. But, um, minority shareholders have rights and private boards have to maximise profits ahead of the national interest. If they decide to sell off the dams later they can, and the Nats won’t stop them.
Written By: - Date published: 7:33 am, February 4th, 2012 - 36 comments
Almost missed among all the blacked out paragraphs of the Transport Briefing to the Incoming Minister are 2 interesting graphs. While not explicitly mentioning peak oil, the graph of the National Land Transport Fund shows a massive shortfall in revenue in a ‘high oil price, low growth’ scenario. The other shows how low-quality National’s highway spending is.
Written By: - Date published: 12:15 pm, February 3rd, 2012 - 48 comments
No Right Turn has a look at two of the incoming minister briefings impacting on climate change. They are incoherent and it is clear that neither ministry talks to the other. If it wasn’t affecting a important long term issue, it’d be as funny as a Yes Minister episode. But since it does, it just highlights the growing incoherence of this incompetent government and their increasing politicization of the civil service.
Written By: - Date published: 12:40 pm, January 26th, 2012 - 43 comments
Dennis Tegg has a good piece on the release of a secret Australian government report that warns peak oil is upon us: The Daily Telegraph has revealed how the Australian government has attempted to suppress its own report on peak oil. The response from the New Zealand government had been equally secretive and obfuscating.
Written By: - Date published: 8:45 am, January 20th, 2012 - 159 comments
As peak oil slowly grinds down our economy – meeting any hint of growth with sky-high petrol prices and making $2 a litre the ‘new normal’, we are actually, gradually,starting to react. Not at a governmental level, where action is most urgently needed, but in the decisions made by ordinary Kiwis every day.
Written By: - Date published: 10:57 am, January 17th, 2012 - 132 comments
Every few years, since the 70s, they’ve promised the great New Zealand oil boom is coming. It ain’t going to happen. If there is lots of oil, it’s deepsea and expensive. And they haven’t found it in 40 years of looking. We have a worse production-consumption ratio now then the 80s. Even if we somehow become a massive oil exporter, it’s not the economic panacea you might think.
Written By: - Date published: 11:25 am, December 5th, 2011 - 131 comments
I enjoyed Jenny’s piece the other day on David Shearer’s leadership abilities. His skill at taking the ball and running with it, and doing what he thinks is right. I want to similarly praise David Cunliffe for his leadership in economic thinking. God knows we need someone who gets the problems and the solutions. Cunliffe brings that understanding in droves.
Written By: - Date published: 9:26 am, December 5th, 2011 - 216 comments
David Cunliffe has said that, if he is Labour leader, he will look to buy back any assets National sells once he is PM. Under the existing Takeovers Code, that wouldn’t be too hard. But why not go a step further and make it clear to any potential investor that our energy sector won’t be their cash cow? A bit of regulatory reform would sink the assets’ share value.
Written By: - Date published: 9:14 am, November 15th, 2011 - 9 comments
NoRightTurn reviews the joke that is National’s energy policy: “National has released its energy policy. The short version? “Drill it, mine it, sell it”. Yes, seriously. A bright, shiny future, funded by magic money put in the ground by Leprechauns. Which we haven’t discovered yet. Its like basing your household budget on winning the lottery.”
Written By: - Date published: 1:50 pm, September 19th, 2011 - 49 comments
We’re going to need a lot of innovation to survive the coming decades. Today’s innovation is a simple modification that at least doubles the energy output of a wind turbine. Brilliant.
Written By: - Date published: 11:01 am, September 7th, 2011 - 17 comments
If electricity assets were part privatised, future governments couldn’t make the kind of reforms that National made earlier this year because of the need to consider private investors’ rights. Pretty simple, eh? Tell that to Hekia Parata. Bill English has his head in the sand on the effect of falling markets and can’t guarantee Kiwi ownership.
Written By: - Date published: 9:41 am, September 5th, 2011 - 45 comments
Denis Tegg on National’s head in the sand Energy Strategy. All the official international warnings have been dismissed and the government has forced official to remove any reference to peak oil. The minister flatly refused to answer questions about the impact of peak oil on her fossil-fuel centred plan at the strategy launch.
Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, August 31st, 2011 - 39 comments
National’s Energy Strategy has been roundly criticised. The promises of more renewables and energy efficiency are more ‘aspirational’ fluff with no plan to actually get there. And, worse, the heart of the strategy works against sustainability and environmental responsibility – it’s all about drilling up and burning more oil. I/S at NoRightTurn explains.
Written By: - Date published: 9:35 am, August 21st, 2011 - 19 comments
This is the kind of innovation and intelligence that we are going to need in abundance to survive the medium to long term future…
Written By: - Date published: 9:05 pm, July 21st, 2011 - 89 comments
Should we be more angry or scared? Just read the first official government presentation on peak oil. The IEA says conventional oil peaked in 2006 but our government offers only crude denialism and, paradoxically, blithe assurances that they’re ready. This is the kind of crap we used to see before we had 2 oil shocks in the past 4 years.
Written By: - Date published: 10:17 am, July 12th, 2011 - 112 comments
A feasible plan to power 100 percent of the planet with complete renewables exists. This plan excludes Nuclear and Biofuels, which the Scientific American authors of this plan also considered to be ultimately unsustainable technologies as well. Instead this plan revolves around Wind, Water and Solar – WWS
Written By: - Date published: 8:19 am, July 3rd, 2011 - 41 comments
Bravo France, the first country in the world to ban fracking. But for every step forward in this world, we seem to take two steps backwards…
Written By: - Date published: 12:50 pm, April 18th, 2011 - 11 comments
Back in October last year the Nats, in a sea of bad news on the economy, latched on to the low inflation rate as something that they could claim “credit” for. No doubt they will now be just as ready to accept blame for the worst inflation rate in 20 years. Almost half of this figure is driven by the Nats’ GST increase…
Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, April 12th, 2011 - 138 comments
Protest action by Greenpeace has disrupted prospecting activities in the Raukumara Basin by Brazilian petrochemical giant Petrobras. John Key has come out swinging for Big Business, and wants to send in the navy to sort out the protesters. But Greenpeace has it right. We shouldn’t be drilling for oil…
Written By: - Date published: 11:50 am, April 11th, 2011 - 36 comments
Get ready for another petrol increase this week. Last week, the Dubai crude benchmark, which most of New Zealand’s imports are priced of, shot up over 4% in NZD terms. Unless that rise reverses right away, petrol will have to rise past $2.25 a litre. We’re now pay $160m a week for oil imports – $2b a year more than a year ago.
Written By: - Date published: 7:58 am, April 10th, 2011 - 40 comments
Peak oil. We’ve long had warnings from scientists and greens. Right wing governments never listen to those. But recently we’ve also had warnings from organisations that you might think that any government would pay attention to. The IMF is the latest to sound the alarm.
Written By: - Date published: 11:36 pm, April 4th, 2011 - 26 comments
Last year, the New Zealand Institute lambasted the Nats’ ‘aspiration’ to catch Australia by 2025 with a report entitled ‘A goal is not a strategy‘. Did the Nats change? Of course not. Yesterday, their energy strategy was released. It offers some goals but is mute on how to get there. It’s not really a strategy at all, but it serves the Nats’ purpose nonetheless.
Written By: - Date published: 11:00 am, March 31st, 2011 - 10 comments
You know your opponent’s stand is dishonourable when they resort to spreading lies and promoting falsehoods about your position. The government’s Acting Energy and Resources Minister, Hekia Parata, has been caught out lying and spreading slurs that misrepresented her opponents’ position on deep sea oil drilling.
Written By: - Date published: 11:16 pm, March 27th, 2011 - 45 comments
Normally, we get 3.65 millisieverts of radiation a year. Increased cancer risk is associated with 100 millisieverts per year. Nuclear workers are only meant to get 100 millisieverts even in an emergency with protective clothing. Today, water in No 2 reactor was detected emitting 1 sievert per hour – and they’re not sure of the source.
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