The Standard » polls

John Key’s emergency descent

lprent — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:22:29 +0000

A great graphic from the Sunday Star Times as John Key starts dropping towards a hard landing in the personal popularity stakes. And in the great tradition of journalists everywhere, the rest of the article is about how he is still preferred by rubber fetishists.

Bugger the polls

Anthony R0bins — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 20:48:08 +0000

Pundit's poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election. Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone. Didn't happen. The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%. They need to rethink their methods.

How bad are National’s internals?

Guest post — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 23:33:46 +0000

Some say the tea tapes haven't hurt Brand Key. In fact, National is down 2% last week and those polls were largely taken before the tea tapes hit overdrive. It also takes time for impressions and media narratives to bed in. The 26th will be the first poll to really tell us how much the tea tapes have hurt. But the internals could give us a clue.

Main parties down minor parties up

Anthony R0bins — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 18:07:38 +0000

The two TV polls last night had both major parties down, and The Greens on the rise to 13%. The Herald poll has NZF on 4.9%. I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls. It's going to be an interesting week.

Interesting poll results

Eddie — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 21:33:45 +0000

Minor Leaders' debate: Winston Peters 36%, Hone Harawira 27%, Don Brash 14%.
Fairfax Epsom poll: Paul Goldsmith 45.5%, John Banks 29.1%.
Impact of Key endorsement: More likely to vote Banks 23%, Less likely 30%.
Taranaki Daily news debate exit poll: Andrew Little 64.5%, Jonathan Young 28%.

Good news bad news polls

Anthony R0bins — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 18:25:10 +0000

Labour is down in two recent polls (albeit margin of error), but over all the news is good!

Mixed polls

Anthony R0bins — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 20:44:58 +0000

The Fairfax Research International poll looks disastrous for Labour, but it's a new poll with no track record. Laugh at me if I turn out to be wrong, but I'm calling it rogue. In contrast a Herald Mood of the Nation poll today is much better reading for the Left.

TVNZ and Herald polls

Anthony R0bins — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 19:35:52 +0000

Two polls out yesterday show no significant changes, with National well in front. Don't panic! The campaign has only just started. Events always take a while to show up in the polls. The Left needs to see movement soon - time's running out fast - but it isn't a surprise not to see it yet.

Polls good for Left

Eddie — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 00:30:06 +0000

There's a TVNZ poll out tonight and a Herald poll tomorrow morning but, ahead of them, here's some other new polls results that point to trouble for the Nats. 27% of young people want to leave New Zealand. 82% of people oppose farm sales to foreign buyers. 24% of people will change their vote over the Rena.

NRT on the most important issue

The Standard — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 23:50:18 +0000

NRT on the issue that is most important to Kiwis. It isn't the economy.

Labour up in Fairfax poll

Anthony R0bins — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 19:59:43 +0000

Today's Fairfax poll shows a rise in support for Labour of 3.2%. What is particularly interesting about this poll is that the sampling period began the same day that Labour announced its "bombshell" retirement policy.

Nats’ biggest ever drop in 3 News poll

Anthony R0bins — Sun, 30 Oct 2011 18:11:26 +0000

The latest 3 News / Reid poll has National down 5.1%, their largest drop (in this poll) since becoming the government. Labour is up 3.6%. A long way to go yet, but it's an encouraging start to the election campaign for the Left.

Ashcroft – the photo-op Key didn’t want

Mike Smith — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 08:08:23 +0000

Paddy Gower at TV3 reveals Lord Ashcroft, billionaire Tory donor and International Democratic Union treasurer, has come to talk to Key again. Just discussed politics generally, said Key. Politics yes, generally no. Ashcroft's interests are now devoted to polling and blog communication, and he is very interested in our election. Having seen Cameron miss out on a majority, he'll want to help Key to one here.

Mishandled Rena costing Nats votes

Anthony R0bins — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 19:02:51 +0000

A recent poll confirms that the expected loss of Nat votes over the Rena disaster is a real effect.

Chart o’ the day: failed gambit

The Standard — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 22:54:03 +0000