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Chart o’ the day: more trouble brewing

Written By: - Date published: 10:46 am, July 27th, 2011 - 97 comments
Categories: exports - Tags:

They usually show the exchange rate the other way round. This way’s more relevant. If you export and get paid in US dollars, the number of NZ dollars you can buy with the same US earnings has gone down 17% in the last 4 months. And if your US dollar prices are falling, like dairy’s….

The one thing that puts a dent in our dollar’s rise is news that our exports are suffering. Even that wasn’t enough of a wake-up call. The rise soon resumed.

Look forward to more. Tomorrow Bollard will signal an earlier rate rise. More people will buy NZ dollars. As US crisis drags on, more people will bail out of the reserve currency.

97 comments on “Chart o’ the day: more trouble brewing”

  1. queenstfarmer 1

    Canterbury earthquakes. Worst global recession since ’30s. Euro crises. US debt crises. High oil prices. Record exchange rate (caused by US dollar), which as the intro to this post says “Every US dollar we make in exports is worth 17% less in New Zealand than 4 months ago”

    And not a single one within the control of the NZ Govt.

    So I’m sure all this gets factored in by others who write honest posts for the Standard, such as when Bright Red came to his erudite conclusion the other day, “So, it’s pretty conclusive that Key sucks as an economic manager. Worst record in 80 years, and by a long, long way.”

    • bbfloyd 1.1

      you really have to start reading the actual posts queeny…. we all know what incompetent management we are suffering under this govt… the post doesn’t mention that aspect at all.

      are you jumping at the shadows in your peripheral vision again… at least you’ve realised they aren’t hobbits now… but they are still only figments of your imagination.

      • queenstfarmer 1.1.1

        we all know what incompetent management we are suffering under this govt

        Yes, you must mean the headlines in recent weeks like NZ economy to accelerate, even as world soft, says Westpac, Economy shows surprising muscle, Economy better, but risks remain: NZIER

        All despite the above factors and the ongoing wreckage of the 2000s burst finance and housing bubble mismanagement.

        • Tigger 1.1.1.1

          Yes, I always believe Westpac’s financial advice since they’re a totally impartial player in the game…

          • travellerev 1.1.1.1.1

            LMAO, Tena koe Tigger!

          • queenstfarmer 1.1.1.1.2

            No problemo, NZIER agrees

            • Afewknowthetruth 1.1.1.1.2.1

              queenstreetfarmer

              If you believe ANYTHING a mainstream economist says you are a fool.

              According to mainstream economists we can have infinite growth on a finite planet, energy supplies don’t even figure into economic equations, and there is no such thing as polution.

              As the saying goes, God made econmists to make weather men look good. In practice that something of is an insult to weathermen, since they are right about 85% of the time. whereas econoimists are right less than 15% of the time.

              • Bazar

                “If you believe ANYTHING a mainstream economist says you are a fool.”

                So obviously you’re suggesting we should put our faith in some fringe economist, preferably one that isn’t funded by a business that actually has real world experience.

                “According to mainstream economists we can have infinite growth on a finite planet, energy supplies don’t even figure into economic equations, and there is no such thing as polution. ”

                I’m not sure where to begin, or why you think NZ has a limited growth potential.
                Are you talking about population size, Italy has about the same size and 10 times the population.
                Are you talking about GDP, there’s no reason why it couldn’t keep improving?

                As it is, you’ve taken a pot shot at the credibility of economists, with a statement that doesn’t make sense, unless you take it to the most literal extreme.

                You claim that economists don’t take into account the cost of energy supplies, but that’s just a retarded statement. Sounds like you want them to take a worst case scenario, where oil runs out in 3 years and we starve.

                The cost of oil, and the cost of power (as part of the daily cost of business/life) will be taken losly into account when making predictions.

                And pollution?
                Why on earth would an economist take pollution into account.

                “whereas econoimists are right less than 15% of the time.”

                Care to show some actual facts that back that up? Sounds like your just pulling some percent out of midair, show a study showing how unreliable it is, and then you’ll have grounds for complaint.

                In a nutshell, you’ve just spouted nonsense you can’t backup, in what i can only see as a child plugging his ears and crying “nanananaan i can’t hear you”

                • Colonial Viper

                  Economics as a profession should be shut down. Well, 95% of it. Economics schools closed and to stay closed until they completely revisit their course material.

                  No economics advice would be a serious improvement on the advice they have been providing for the last 20 years.

                  For starters, their assumptions around rational economic agents, the neutrality of money, price/demand and price/supply curves are totally flawed.

                  Which makes it hard to believe anything else they are paid by the banks to say.

                  • Draco T Bastard

                    Economics as a profession should be shut down.

                    No, it just needs to be moved away from the monetary hypothesis that it’s been using for the last few hundred years and to a resource based theory. If that happens it would actually deserve to be called a science but that’s unlikely to happen because then the rich won’t get the justification for taking all of our wealth off of us and having dictatorial control that they want.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      It should be shut down in the interim while it rebuilds a resource focussed theory base so it doesnt spread any more of the current crap it teaches :)

                • Afewknowthetruth

                  Bazar.

                  Sorry to say it, but you are obviously clueless.

                  The oil supply peaked over 2005-2006 (just as numerous oil geologists said it would, going right back to M King Hubbert in 1956). The mainstream economics cabal that advise governments insisted that the oil supply would grow from the then 84 million barrels a day to 120 million barrels a day. Withoiut energy nothing happens.

                  Maiinstream economists failed to predict the so-called finacial crisis of 2008 -which was actually the beginning of the peak-oil induced end to the economic arrangements that have prevailed for centuries- and throughout all of 2009, 2010 and thus far throught 2011 have insisted that we are seeing ‘green shoots’ of growth, even as the economic system implodes.

                  The GDP system, conjured out of thin air by economists (like the money we use), is as useful a measure of progress as analysing my neighbours’ cat movements. It is a total fraud.

                  My 15% was being extremely generous to economists. taking the weathermen’s 85% from 100%. The the real figure for the reliability of economists forecasts is 0%. Hence the continuous supply of ‘news’ items telling us ‘more than expected’, ‘less than expected’, ‘worse than expected’ etc.

                  You can guarantee that any growth figure forecast by any mainstream economist will be wrong, especially from this point on.

                  But what would I know. I’ve only studied to for 40 years and written four books on the subject.

                  • The Baron

                    AFKTT: you can’t rest on your laurels of expertise when you’re being pseudoanon. I don’t know you from Adam; and even if I did, plenty of people have spent more time and published more books on bullshit too.
                    So expert – want me to take you seriously? Then who are you, and what are your excellent books?

                  • Bazar

                    “The oil supply peaked over 2005-2006 (just as numerous oil geologists said it would, going right back to M King Hubbert in 1956). The mainstream economics cabal that advise governments insisted that the oil supply would grow from the then 84 million barrels a day to 120 million barrels a day. Withoiut energy nothing happens.”

                    So you’re questioning the creditablity/reliablity of economists, by casting into doubt the creditability of oil geologists.

                    “Maiinstream economists failed to predict the so-called finacial crisis of 2008 -which was actually the beginning of the peak-oil induced end to the economic arrangements that have prevailed for centuries- and throughout all of 2009, 2010 and thus far throught 2011 have insisted that we are seeing ‘green shoots’ of growth, even as the economic system implodes.”

                    They also failed to pridict the earthquake, or the trade center bombings.
                    My point being its a guideline only. Not an actual pridiction that can be trusted with infalibility, espically with events outside their control or expertise.

                    But used as a guideline, it has value. Your inability to see *any* value in it at all is what this little arguement is over. Not the accuracy of their pridictions.

                    “You can guarantee that any growth figure forecast by any mainstream economist will be wrong, especially from this point on. ”

                    Indeed, it’d be so much more respectable for them to say something like, “the economy is expected to grow with patches of recession clearing over the next quarter”

                    I wonder if yuo’d have the same problem with weather forcasters if you forced them to guess the tempture’s high and lows of the next day, and the times and expected amount of rainfall. Then would you be singing the same tune?

                    Because thats the differance, you say 100% for weatherforcasters, but they are deliberably vague.
                    You say 0% for economists, because they attempt accuracy and obviously fall short of perfect.

                    In the end, you’ve argued against this one phrase “NZ economy to accelerate, even as world soft”.
                    Thats about as vague as it gets, the only way it could be wrong, is if NZ decellerates, and given that we’ve only just pulled out of the recession i’m pretty doubtful, as any decelleration would be a recession again.

                    Finally
                    “The GDP system, conjured out of thin air by economists (like the money we use), is as useful a measure of progress as analysing my neighbours’ cat movements. It is a total fraud. ”

                    Its a tool for mesuring the economy, just like any other tool. I do believe its overused, and even abused, (both politicaly and economicly (china being the worst offender of gdp abuse that i know about)) but it has its use.

                    “But what would I know. I’ve only studied to for 40 years and written four books on the subject.”

                    Arguement handbook 101:
                    “While it is reasonable to give more credence to the claims of those with the proper background, education, and credentials, the truth of a claim should ultimately rest in the logic and evidence, not the authority of the person promoting it.”

                    And when i look at your logic from your statements, it’s just untenable.

          • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.1.3

            queenstfarmer is ignoring a simple fact: company profits can rocket up, and the rich become richer, in a two speed economy which leaves most people behind.

            In the US the stock markets have had a massive run up, company profits are huge, Apple is sitting on US$65B of cash, the number of multi millionaires and billionaires has grown, but real unemployment is around the 12%-18% level and staying there.

            Most citizens are being crushed in their version of “growth”.

            In NZ, dairy prices down by around 25%, a NZD destroying local manufacturing exporters, and a Government cutting money flows into the economy is going to do about the same thing to us.

            Promises of growth now are just the National carrot permanently held in front of the NZ donkey.

            The icing on the cake: Australia is hitting their slow down seriously now and soon will cease to be an employment sink for our over supplied labour pool.

            Interesting times.

            • Ianupnorth 1.1.1.1.3.1

              Never mind the raised inflation and soon t be raised interest rates will hammer any real growth!

            • queenstfarmer 1.1.1.1.3.2

              The icing on the cake: Australia is hitting their slow down seriously now

              Yes, I didn’t mention Australia’s slow down as yet another factor weighing on NZ that the Govt has no control over.

              • GTF,
                Let me put it this way. John Key is like a lieutenant in a Mafia family. Let’s face it $ 50 mill were he comes from isn’t a lot of money these days but it was at the time and he proved his metal to his capo’s.

                Now there are plenty of ex-Mafioso who came clean and tried to live decent lives or who told about how the Mafia worked and who’s who in that world.

                He knows how that banking world works but instead of telling us and trying to really help New Zealand to break free from the strangle hold of the international bankster world he actually goes and visits the Capo di tuti Capo over in Mafia land. Guys like Bernanke and Geithner and he also visits the enforcers of these Capo di tuti Capo such as big Sister and the Pentagon.
                You see, that tells me he is still very much a part of the international bankster Mafia and since they’ve got him by the balls what with most of his wealth locked up in BofA shares which is collapsing as we speak I think he is going to do their bidding because after he escapes from what to him is the most boring place on earth namely New Zealand he wants to go back to what he loves doing best: screwing people while making loads-a-money, and unless he serves his masters now that is not going to happen!

                • queenstfarmer

                  You said below “I always backup whatever I say with links to my sources“. I’d like to see your sources for the above.

                  Let’s face it $ 50 mill were he comes from isn’t a lot of money these days

                  He came from a state house – $50m isn’t a lot? Even in relation to where he is today, I think $50m is his total net worth.

                  • QTF,
                    On Wall street and London last year some (US)$ 65 billion was put aside for salaries and bonuses. This from the guardian.

                    In 2008 (US)$ 16 trillion dollar was secretly given to the biggest too big to fail banks according to the once in a lifetime audit for the US Government of the Federal Reserve of NY. The PDF can be down loaded but here is a printout of were the money went too. (Link to PDF on the same page)

                    The secret printing money till you drop scam was so fraught with conflict of interest that even Paulson was caught with his pants down after he gave himself a 200 million bonus. (Video of him being asked some questions by a Congressman)

                    Banks routinely get caught laundering drug money according to Bloomberg and that includes Merrill Lynch.

                    Merrill Lynch has a long history of fraud and scamming. Even when and especially when John Key was in a position of extreme power at Merrill Lynch. Enron, Internet shares ripoff, The LTCM (First scandal that saw the FR bailout the banks involved sending the signal that no matter what they got up too the suckers would bail them out) scandal which saw John Key having to sack hundreds of colleagues earning him the nickname “the Smiling Assassin”.

                    You asked for it no go and educate yourself!

                    • queenstfarmer

                      So John Key’s a double agent secretly working for Merryl Lynch. Wonder what happens if we flip him the queen of diamonds…

                    • QTF,
                      What gets me with idiots like you is that if they ask for info and they get it they try to ignore it with a flippant remark and go into total denial.

                      John Key travelled to London and met with his former Merrill Lynch bosses for a breakfast meeting in August 2008, three months before he was elected. At this meeting according to John Key himself his bosses told him of the dire situation the banks was in  (It was bought by BofA after it collapsed) and after that meeting Merrill Lynch told the world that ACC would be privatised.

                      John had left Merrill Lynch some 7 years earlier. Now I don’t know about you but I have never been invited by my ex-bosses to travel halfway across the world seven years after I left them to pursue an entirely different career to be told how badly they are faring financially, have you? Neither have I told my ex-bosses that I would privatise a possibly politically controversial organisation well in advance of my election after promising my electorate that I would not privatise anything.

                      It’s called the old boys network and that’s how they stay rich and in power. No double agent required and Johnny boy is quite open about it because he knows that idiots like you are so gullible as to vote for a guy with a nice smile and acting just like they do.

                    • The Baron

                      But I see no evidence here Eve. Where is your source for this meeting having taken place, and your source for what was discussed and the insight JK was given?

                      Do you have any? Cos its mighty hard to take your stories true without such sourcing – in fact, they start to sound like the ravings of a conspiracy minded lunatic.

                      But up to you – please feel free to prove me wrong. Do you have a transcript of this meeting perhaps? That’ll do.

              • mik e

                qfarmer your laughing at the Australian economy slowing down, That means they won,t be able to afford as much of our stuff ,as well their dollar will slow against ours making our stuff dearer less affordable.They only make up 40% of our exports nothing to worry about.

                • queenstfarmer

                  Huh? When did I “laugh at the Australian economy” at all? An Aussie slowdown will be bad for us, that’s the point.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    You’re a joke. The skinny guy in the corner of the gym who doesn’t think he can.

                    More Friedmanite learned helplessness.

                    What this country needs is a Govt willing to act on behalf of the interests of its citizens – not just the top 1% + the foreign bankers.

              • Colonial Viper

                Come on qstf, the Government can do a lot if you werent such a free market learned helplessness pussy.

                Right down to re-nationalising without compensation any strategic power assets the NATs did manage to sell.

    • Perhaps not, but John Key knows exactly what is going down as an ex-Wall street investment banker who sold the crap now collapsing the entire world economy. So why not ask him some pertinent questions such as how many shares do you have in the BofA (loss 8.8 billion last quarter) and don’t you have a huge conflict of interest with either helping NZ or yourself in the next oh, two years?

      • queenstfarmer 1.2.1

        why not ask him some pertinent questions such as how many shares do you have in the BofA

        Because he doesn’t know, his shares are in a blind trust. You might try to fling mud about that, but you might want to think about how successful Pete Hodson’s mud-slinging was (hint: look at today’s polls).

        • travellerev 1.2.1.1

          No, actually the shares are not in the blind trust. Not, that is, according to the PDF detailing all the interests (January 2011 of MP’s currently in power) on the Government website.

          I never sling mud. I always backup whatever I say with links to my sources. You haven’t been here very long QTF otherwise you would know that. John Key is a bankster thug just like Hank Paulson, Timothy Geithner, Alan Greenspan and his bosses at Merrill Lynch and BofA to name but a few. Look it up!

          • queenstfarmer 1.2.1.1.1

            Ok, his Bofa (Bank of America) shares probably aren’t in the blind trust because they are not domestic shares. I withdraw and apologise (giggle) for not picking up that you were talking about non-domestic shares.

            Certainly his domestic shares are in blind trust (the subject of much mud-slinging). I limit my comment to those.

            • Colonial Viper 1.2.1.1.1.1

              John Key should recuse himself and his senior ministers from any discussions with BAC and its operating units.

              btw BAC is going down the toilet.

    • Colonial Viper 1.3

      And not a single one within the control of the NZ Govt.

      You’re a fucking idiot

      Its not up to the NZ Govt to control earthquakes

      Its up to the NZ Govt to control the currency

      It can do that by inflicting costs on currency speculators and by pegging the currency against a basket of international currencies and limiting daily movements to 0.25% either way.

      You RWNJs are incompetent.

      • queenstfarmer 1.3.1

        Its up to the NZ Govt to control the currency

        Ah, the ghost of Muldoon is alive and well.

        • Colonial Viper 1.3.1.1

          Tell me do you enjoy seeing our exporters crushed?

          Do you enjoy seeing our ag/hort industry being crushed?

          Are you not aware that China, Singapore, most other countries with successful export industries control their currencies by fair means and foul?

          Do you really think that bringing up “Muldoon” will excuse you for basic ignorance of the inter-relationships between FX and the industrial economy?

          Fucking idiot

          Doesn’t even recognise a global currency war in it’s final stages.

          • queenstfarmer 1.3.1.1.1

            Are you not aware that China, Singapore, most other countries with successful export industries control their currencies by fair means and foul?

            China, yes, but rubbish about Singapore and “most other countries”.

            And China can do what it wants because it’s a quasi-communist dictatorship. What a great model for New Zealand.

            • Colonial Viper 1.3.1.1.1.1

              QSTF said

              China, yes, but rubbish about Singapore and “most other countries”.

              which demonstrates again that you are an ignorant, incompetent fool. Let me teach another dumbass free market right winger a thing or two about how a country serious about its economic development does it (feel free to google for the source):

              The quasi central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), operates a managed float regime. The trade-weighted exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate within a policy band, the level and direction of which are announced to the market on a semiannual basis. The band is periodically reviewed to ensure that it remains consistent with the underlying fundamentals of the economy.

              Then you ignorantly said

              And China can do what it wants because it’s a quasi-communist dictatorship. What a great model for New Zealand.

              whereas you’d prefer to follow the freemarket ways of the world’s greatest kleptocracy, the United States.

              Just think to yourself between China and the US, which of those two countries has managed to achieve 10% GDP growth p.a. for the last 25 years. I’ll clue you in: its not the US.

            • mik e 1.3.1.1.1.2

              qstreet Singapore doesn,t need to control its currency because it has such high savings.and it does have more mechanisms than Just raising interest rates . It also has VATie gst 7% its much like china in that has a centrally planned economy, Its government also makes sure every body shares in its economic success as it is run by a socialist govt with capitalist believe!it also invests heavily in education and innovation.

        • mik e 1.3.1.2

          Qfarmer other countries use different methods, our country lets the speculators have field day .We are stuck with a 20 year old method of only one lever and it feeds right into the speculators pockets rather than our own.The aussie govt is increasing its savings from 9% to12% that money stays in aussie hands while ours ends up with money speculators and the big aussie 4 banks, in increased returns especially if our dollar escalates against theirs .Balance of payments goes down interest rates go up.

          • queenstfarmer 1.3.1.2.1

            No problem with adding a few levers or pressure points. These can influence things. But the fact is you can’t “control the currency”. Why anyone would suggest pulling a Muldoon on NZ again is beyond me.

            • Colonial Viper 1.3.1.2.1.1

              Why anyone would suggest pulling a Muldoon on NZ again is beyond me.

              Its beyond you because you are a learned helplessness Chicago School Friedmanite free market serf.

              If you won’t deal with the global ‘free markets’ in a serious manner like a real country, prepare to have your export industries decimated.

      • Bazar 1.3.2

        “Its up to the NZ Govt to control the currency”

        Its a shame, if only we had someone who was well versed in currency exchanges. Someone who perhaps made their living from buying and selling currencies.

        We’d obviously want one who was great and successful at it.

        If we had such a person, wouldn’t it be great if he was PM, then he’d probably know first hand the benifits and risks inherant in attempting to stablise our currency.

        Such a shame we don’t have anyone like that in goverment, let along the PM, because then they’d obviously agree with viper’s wonderful notation that our goverment is all powerful against the rest of the world’s speculators.

        In fact, thats such an increadible idea. Fix the price of our money, i wonder why the US haven’t thought of it.

        I really like how we could also tax currency speculators. That way when investors from overseas convert currencies and make a profit, we’ll just get them to fill out our IRD form 101, and i’m sure they’d happy pay our tax that would otherwise be unenforcable, even undetectable/auditable

        “You RWNJs are incompetent.”
        Another stiring Ad Hom approach from viper. One day he might actually mature to the point where he learns to converse with people he disagrees with without name calling.

        But i suspect that’ll be many years away from now, when hes 16 or so.

        • Colonial Viper 1.3.2.1

          Oh fuck off you monetarily ignorant RWNJ, Key loves our clean currency float because speculators like him can make easy money off it at the cost of our productive industries.

          And I didn;t say anything about “taxing” currency speculators, I talked about making it “expensive” for them to trade :)

          Although an FTT would also be handy :D

          In fact, thats such an increadible idea. Fix the price of our money, i wonder why the US haven’t thought of it.

          Sorry asshole I didn;t say “fix” the value of the NZD I said control it. A completely different concept and one that you are scared of.

          And the US is doing just that – controlling the value of its currency.

          We are being caught up in a currency war and our economy is being decimated because we refuse to take cover.

          • Bazar 1.3.2.1.1

            “Sorry asshole I didn;t say “fix” the value of the NZD I said control it. A completely different concept and one that you are scared of.”

            You talked about pegging, commonly known as maintaing a FIXED exchange rate.
            As in having it FIXED to a forign exchanged rate.

            Since you obviously couldn’t be talking about a FIXED exchange rate, i’m going to have to wonder what the hell you’re talking about.

            “And the US is doing just that – controlling the value of its currency.”
            HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
            I can’t take this seriously anymore, a statement like that is the best joke of the day.

    • mik e 1.4

      Qfarmer the dollars rise could easily be slowed by saving more, increasing taxes , reduce spending slow motorway program especially as there are less cars on the road and public transport use is increasing so we don,t have Governor Bollard having to raise interest rates fueling more speculation on our currency.Which reduces the productive sectors income reducing tax take taking longer to reduce deb,t deteriorating our balance payments which downgrades our moody,s standard and poors ratings which lead to higher interest rates bigger debt and an even higher dollar.

    • AAMC 1.5

      And what you fail to acknowledge here Queeny, is the Nat’s ideological attachment to the economic thinking that caused the GFC and the subsequent fallout. How can they manage us out of it if they want to implement more of the policy that delivered it to us.

      Definition of insanity and all that…

      • Colonial Viper 1.5.1

        Well, strictly speaking, both LAB and NAT have variously demonstrated an ideological attachment to the economic thinking leading up to the GFC :P

        • AAMC 1.5.1.1

          Acutely aware of that. In the name of optimism, I’m hoping at least a future “Left” coalition would have the potential to learn the lessons this ideology have taught us and hopefully become less adherent to it.
          As the Global Crisis plays out, it remains to be seen whether any of them can be of any real use to us, but assuming we’re at the poling booth in November, I’m feeling slightly less attached to Chicago with Key out of Govt.
          My real point is that the right routinely use the GFC as an excuse for our predicament and current ideology. The reason for our predicament: obviously, but surely not an excuse for, or defense of, our reaction to the continuing GFC, and the refusal to discuss or implement the lessons from it.
          The other thing they refuse to do in their obsession with small govt and their Communist paranoia’s and fantasies, is acknowledge that their whole ponzy scheme has been underwritten buy Wahhabi Saudi’s and Communist Chinese.

    • Extremely Bored by Joky 1.6

      Its not what happens on your watch, its how you handle it. On all of the above Joky Hen has failed to provide any inspiration or action.
      The report to date
      Earthquake: looked good on the photo ops, released what looked like a good package, the detail let it down, over all not a bad effort.
      Worst Global recession. Looked good on photos, very reassuring about protecting the investments of deposit holders in financial establishments….SCF comes to mind, excellent result in costing the tax payer a bundle..what a cock up. No further plan to protect the economy…”market rulz you know!”
      Euro crisis: No photo op….no mention of it with any policy detail of how we would protect our dollar or markets (“the market will cure this” attitude when quite patently the market is not going to cure anything).
      US Dollar crisis as above but great photo op. Like Bambam clueless, he might have suggested something to the Pres….but no. Probably worried about his US$ holdings. Cant wait for photo.
      High oil prices: no photo op, not a mention or a strategy to do anything….except for drill offshore (a real option post the Gulf incident….send the Navy to protect the drillers). Or perhaps incite the largest protest since 1981 with plans to mine National parks (definitely no photo op).
      Record exchange rate…pretty hard to get a photo op here, singular fail…must be hurting his cash deposits in USA..what if they default…our $ goes ballistic as Greenback goes into free fall. Apply for the dole Joky!!!!!!!

      Pretty crappy really, maybe worst record in 80 years, perhaps not. Since Jurassic perhaps?

  2. Blighty 2

    governments aren’t to blame for events outside their control but they are responsible for how they respond to them.

    At least, they used to be.

    • Akldnut 2.1

      I’m still waiting for the inevitable shrilling “It’s Labours fault for leaving us in such a terrible position.”

      • Blue 2.1.1

        No need, it seems the voters are aware of it, well, more than 50% anyway. Hysterical shrieking is the preserve of the left as you know.

        • mik e 2.1.1.1

          BLUE our borrowing has,nt gone down under this government bill English is borrowing what the private sector was borrowing the percentage that was borrowed under the Clark govt there was no dereference to the previous govt or this govt her govt got the economy to grow 28% English hasn,t made it to 1% yet in 5 years as finance minister so far!

    • bbfloyd 2.2

      exercising duty of care has never been this govt’s job.. that would interfere with the real agenda..

  3. nadis 3

    You are kind of right, but whats semi-insulated NZ so far is the TWI, though that is close to its post 1998 high, at end of june was about 7% off that high.

    USD is about 30% of NZ TWI, whats really helped is Aussie at 21%.

    But yes, more trouble brewing though given the way global dairy prices are softening at the moment, any sensible resolution to the debt ceiling will see NZDUSD reverse quite a bit quite smartly – the currency really is being driven by external forces beyond the control of any NZ entity. I guess the move from mid high 70s to high 80s on NZDUSD is driven by the debt ceiling uncertainty.

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      There is no sensible resolution to the debt ceiling issue. The US has already demonstrated that it is at high risk for being able to pay back its 2y treasuries, let alone its 30y ones.

      USD is going down – it will lose its reserve currency status. QE3 is already informally underway.

  4. randal 4

    Hey Z, it wont stop till every lard ass in New Zealand has a hardly davison, a leaf blower, and a plasma tv, and been to mongolia.

  5. Afewknowthetruth 5

    It’s all perfectly simple. The US is imploding somewhat faster than NZ because most Americans have been enjoying profligate lifestyles somewhat longer than most NZers, and America continues to print money at a faster rate than most other nations in order to fund its outrageous military spending and its occupations of other nations.

    The US peaked in oil extraction in 1970: that is when the supply of money for nuthin’ began to decline. Every day that passes the situation gets worse. (or better, if you would like habitable planet for the next generation).

    Right now around 30% of the US is severe drought, around 5% is inundated, 5% is trying to recover from storm damage (flooding, tornadoes etc.) the real umemployment rate is around 10% and the housijng market is continuing to implode.

    Meanwhile, the ‘idiots’ in NZ will take the lower petrol prices and lower import costs as a sign that the NZ economy is improving.

    randal: Have they shifted production of Harley Davidsons to China yet? If not, why not?

    I’ve been thinking. Perhaps queenstreetfarmer deliberately writes utter nonsense which is the reverse of logic just to promote responses.

    Whatever is happening, you can be sure the Bilderbergers are behind it and are profitting from it.

  6. indiana 6

    By the logic of this post Julia Guilard is doing a fine danndy job given that the Aussie dollar trades at AUD$1.09 against the USD.

    • Afewknowthetruth 6.1

      I see the Aussie dollar has broken through $1.10 US, supposedly because of ‘inflation fears’. That will drag the Kiwi up, since most financial analysts seem to think NZ is a district of Australia.

      Interestingly, the Aussie was 55 US cents at the time of the Olympics.

      Sumthinzburnin’

      How long till the Kiwi reaches the $1.20 US it was in 1974?

      (Correction to previous comment. the real US unemployment rate is 20%+)

    • Colonial Viper 6.2

      Australia’s high dollar is crushing all non-mining related exporters.

      You’ll note that towns in mining areas of Australia are still experiencing strong economic growth – everywhere else is not.

      The awful Christmas shopping season 2010 for Australian retailers was a warning shot across the bow. More to come.

    • indiana 6.3

      Ah…so its got nothing to do with a left leaning government unlike in NZ where it has everything to do with a right leaning government.

      • Colonial Viper 6.3.1

        Where is the Left leaning govt? All I see are capitalist governments around the place.

  7. TightyRighty 7

    what would you do then Zet, if you were in power?

    The fact is, New Zealand with it’s comparatively strong economy, low risk of default and high interest rates makes it a haven for currency investors. basically, it’s because the current Government of New Zealand are such good managers of the economy, that is why our currency is so attractive (and maybe why national are cleaning up in the polls).

    what would you have them do? be what this site accuses them of regularly? poor economic managers, which is an accusation that flies in the face of empirical evidence, no matter how desperately you try and spin it to be right. Right is right, left is sinister.

    • Colonial Viper 7.1

      Actually we are a haven for currency speculators because of our naively “clean” float and the extreme predictability our exchange rate can be manipulated.

      ie National is doing a good job of gaming the economy not building it.

      Not a surprise since a currency ticket clipper is the PM.

      poor economic managers, which is an accusation that flies in the face of empirical evidence, no matter how desperately you try and spin it to be right.

      Come now, an economy which delivers only to the rich is not a good economy. Youth unemployment near 30% is that the ‘empirical evidence’ you are pointing to? Or wage rates 1/3 less than Australia’s? Or the 3000 Kiwis per month leaving for Australia?

      Our country is being hollowed out. Sorry you can’t see it.

      Right is right, left is sinister.

      Breivik. Right Wing.

      • TightyRighty 7.1.1

        When youth rates disappeared, youth employment went up in the middle of one the biggest recessions we’ve ever seen.

        I love it CV when you use stats, as I then know you are lying. You love quoting the median wage as all important in NZ, but make the comparison between NZ and OZ using average wage. You also uniquely ignore the fact that our costs of living are lower in new zealand and that australias economy is looking shakier and shakier as the stupidity of julia gillard is revealed. Attacking the only reason australia avoided recession. silly ranga.

        Apart from the the fact you have offered nothing to refute my claim the reason the currency is high vs the US dollar is a result of the government being so good at managing our economy, you have proven you know next to nothing about economics and the economics of labour.

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1

          *Shrug*

          50% of NZ’ers earn less than $28,000 pa.

          Its pathetic and you know it.

          Successive NZ Govts have given currency speculators the Keys to the country. If you think that is ‘good economic management’ you need your head read.

          By the way minimum wage needs to transition to $16/hr over 2 years.

          • TightyRighty 7.1.1.1.1

            what you have said means nothing, 50% of new zealanders earn less than $28k per year? ok, what percentage of that 50% are in school, studying, doing volunteer work, are actually in new zealand or are on a benefit? see what i mean about you quoting stats? your lying.

            Currency speculators do not have the keys to the country, you gigantic moron, anyone with more money than anyone else does, and even then not really. do you think currency speculators are busy buying our currency just to fuck with us? or is because they want to make as much money of their money based on a paradigm of risk / reward? would you rather have the fixed currency that almost beggared the country? do you know a single fucking thing about what you say. Minimum wage needs to transistion to $16 h/r over two years does it? ok, as soon as we can get on with the business of making this country wealthy enough to afford that without being hamstrung by numbnuts lefties like yourself wanting to penalise those who produce the wealth required to pay the $16 h/r. you stupid little shit, thinking having the last word means you are right, when all you do is mouth slogans and bull shit.

            • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1.1.1

              By the way, its time workers start pushing for 5 weeks holidays per year, and an extra stat day annually.

              And sick/bereavement leave entitlements need to go to 10 days per year.

              In addition over time rates for those doing over 40 hours per week need to be returned.

              Currency speculators do not have the keys to the country,

              Each cent our dollar goes up costs our country tens or hundreds of million dollars in productive exports. What do you call that?

        • mik e 7.1.1.2

          ITS because we borrowed their printed money at 5.5% interest while their only paying 1/2% interest .We should have printed some of our own instead of borrowing ie GARETH MORGAN they are deliberately printing to push the Chinese to float so we are the mugs caught in the middle by our ideologues.typical

    • Draco T Bastard 7.2

      it’s because the current Government of New Zealand are such good managers of the economy,

      Nope, it’s because the current lot are promising to sell us out.

      • TightyRighty 7.2.1

        nope it’s because the interest rates are high as the economy is straining ahead so inflation must be controlled, this is a direct result of good economic management. try as you might, you are all avoiding this salient fact. I know the truth hurts, as evidenced by the lack of a post on the latest poll.

        • Colonial Viper 7.2.1.1

          Every developed nation in the world is trying to manage their currencies downwards to stave off economic disaster and you are saying that a high dollar is good economic management?

          You truly have no idea I’m afraid.

          How can it be good economic management to strangle our export sector? Destroy our heavy industry? Hurt ag/hort exporters?

          Of course, your neoliberal view of economics explains a hell of a lot of the trouble this country is in.

          The few do well from your style of “good economic management”,while the many suffer and kids go hungry.

          • TightyRighty 7.2.1.1.1

            every developed nation in the world? such as australia? or singapore? there are two countries that are ok with high currencies. so your wrong already.

            Strangle our export sector, this is based of only receiving world market pricing for goods right? ignoring trade agreements not in USD? or EURO?

            “the many suffer and kids go hungry”? i thought i slaved my arse off to provide for the myself after the government takes it’s whack so that kids wouldn’t go hungry. Hey, here is a novel option, if you can’t afford to have kids, don’t have them. OH wait, would this be unintended effect of the welfare state? that increased benefits leads to increased reliance on them and people become unable to make rational choices about themselves and their lifestyles? fuckwit, that is you.

            • Colonial Viper 7.2.1.1.1.1

              Grow a brain – Singapore has a dirty float currency with movements limited against a basket of other foreign currencies.

              BTW Australia’s high currency is killing all their non-mineral exporters.

              i thought i slaved my arse off to provide for the myself after the government takes it’s whack so that kids wouldn’t go hungry. Hey, here is a novel option, if you can’t afford to have kids, don’t have them.

              Human right to have a family mate, and we deserve to live in a society which will support the next generation.

              Oh yeah, we need a wage structure which will allow families to have one parent earn a decent wage and the other one to stay at home and support the rest of the family, if that is what they choose to do.

              • Blue

                Human right to have a family, of course it is, but it not a human right to have a family you can’t afford to fucking feed, only a moron or a Labour Party voter would think that made sense. (Apologies for repeating myself MT)

                • Colonial Viper

                  Ahem. NZ has plenty of wealth to feed everyone in this country. And to supply each man woman and child in the country with a litre of milk per week for $1.

                • mik e

                  Blue it seems policy on the right leads to poorer families 20,000 more on the DPB under Key. Ever since we,ve had Rogernomics we,ve had higher teenage pregnancies.Your Sir Peter Gluckman has pointed out we need to invest in more education and innovation but you guys don,t listen to your own advice and cut funding in those areas.Education is the best contraception not deprivation as you would have us believe

                  • Blue

                    Investing in innovation and education has fuck all to do with someone having kids when they patently can’t afford it.

            • mik e 7.2.1.1.1.2

              Yeah is that why Australia is slowing down then meaning at 40% of our exports they will be reducing what they buy from us. with a weaker ausd as well.Yeah righty . just about every right wing blogger said we didn,t know how to conduct discourse without being abusive over the weekend yeah righty. you,d only ever be happy in a feudal state in that state your leader John Keys mother would be in your firing line .She wouldn,t have got the hand up for nice we johnny to become NZ,s first celebrity PM.

            • mik e 7.2.1.1.1.3

              YEAH whatever Tighty the Aussie economy is tanking right now as we speak theres only so far someone can push price of a commonality up where it becomes to expensive to make a profit especially as China relies on the US

        • Draco T Bastard 7.2.1.2

          http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10728178

          China’s enormous sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation, may have set aside up to 1.5 per cent or about $6 billion of its massive foreign exchange reserves to invest in New Zealand assets, including government bonds, companies and potentially dairy farms.

          And China won’t be the only ones looking to buy assets that make a 15% return either. Only way they can buy them though is to buy NZ$ and that pushes the FX rate up.

          BTW, what proof do you have that the economy is improving? Because so far, all I’ve seen is flat despite NAct saying that we would roar out of recession after cutting taxes.

        • mik e 7.2.1.3

          HIGH commodities and high borrowing. what happens when our Commodities drop.Yes Bill will borrow more it may not happen before the election but it will happen.Commodities are a roller coaster some of that roller coaster is already on the downward slide. GOOD economic management yeah right Good image management thats what it is Tighty. smile and waves teflon hasn,t worn off yet .Alrighty

  8. Marjorie Dawe 8

    The strange thing is that you believe its ok to reduce the rates of childbirth but who will our workers of the future be? Oh that’s right. Our economic management is such that our productive sector will just continue to shrink and there wont be any jobs at all so why have kids who wont be able to get jobs anyway. I actually think you are theuniformed fuckwit righty! The only way we will get out of the crap we are in is to control the NZD and reduce the fluctuations. We are too small to be a speculative currency and our current government hasnt got a clue.

    • Afewknowthetruth 8.1

      ‘our productive sector will just continue to shrink and there wont be any jobs’

      Actually, the ‘productive sector’ is a myth, just like everything else in economics.

      Nature is the only thing that produces anything. All humans do is convert what nature produced into something else, and most of the time that something else is just waste.

      You are right; there won’t be any jobs a few years from now -well not in the traditional sense of the word. The present industrial economy cannot function without a supply of fossil fuels, and the present financial Ponzi scheme cannot function with an INCREASING supply of fossil fuels. That’s why it’s all falling apart right now… peak oil and all that.

      • Draco T Bastard 8.1.1

        Nature is the only thing that produces anything. All humans do is convert what nature produced into somnething else, and most of the time that something else is just waste.

        Nature >> human use >> waste

        What humanity gets wrong and is part and parcel of standard economics is that the majority of the waste isn’t something that nature can use/recycle and so it poisons the environment rather than fitting within the natural cycles.

  9. Colonial Viper 9

    Gotta love Assoc Prof Steve Keen. This man gets it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLNylnm0QA4&feature=player_embedded

  10. Afewknowthetruth 10

    Panic over. The Kiwi has dropped from 87.55c to 87.48c.

    • Blue 10.1

      What no hysteria over “Peak Oil” today?

      • Afewknowthetruth 10.1.1

        Hysteria?

        I suppose you think society ignoring the second biggest issue in all of history and NZ society heading straight into economic meltdown and eventual mass starvation as a joke. You must be pretty sick.

        • Blue 10.1.1.1

          Not sick, just sick (and tired) of words from the left but no action. Words without action are just noise. You’re a one issue poster with plenty of noise about this issue. If you have the answer, share it with the left so they can make change that satisfies this perceived need that obsesses you so. Secondly perhaps you might ask why, after nine years in power, Labour did precisely ‘dick’ about this matter? I remember the Greens being there as well during this time with, what they thought, was a sympathetic Government ear. You can talk the green talk, it is much more difficult for Labour to walk it, it seems.

      • Colonial Viper 10.1.2

        Hey mate just get that solar hot water heating in you;re going to need it.

        • Robert Atack 10.1.2.1

          You first need a water supply independent of the grid.

          Every so called ‘alternative’ – be it food supply or energy has to pass the ‘Baghdad’ test ie would it work in Baghdad in 2005 … or Mogadishu ?

          If you have solar hot water and all your pig ignorant neighbours haven’t then
          1 – get use to killing people
          2 – or cold showers

          Solar panels = target
          Same with a producing garden, you can’t guard it 24/7 … or water it if the water comes from a council tap

          We are surrounded by our killers

  11. grumpy czeching in 11

    This is a crap argument, there is no difference in the earning power of our exports when converted to $NZ. If a $US converts to whatever NZ exchange rate it has no impact on that exports “real” value. perhaps it converts to less dollars that are worth more , or more dollars that are worth less.

    When NZers try to spend those converted dollars on imports or things governed by “world prices”, we find that more dollars that are worth less and less dollars that are worth more are exactly the same.

    What NZ needs are high product returns with a high exchange rate. That leads to higher real wages which, surely, is what we all want.

    PS Current NZ/EURO makes this a great time to be in Europe – enjoy…….

    • lprent 11.1

      The ‘value’ argument is dead wrong in reality. Have you been ignoring practical economics of exporting all your life?

      You’re anticipating that the price of the exports moves directly with the exchange rate – but it doesn’t in the short and even the medium term. Most export pricing is inelastic because it is based on the market price in the target country – ie what people are willing to pay in their own currency and relative to their own earning abilities. Push the local price point up and the demand diminishes and moves to alternatives,

      The other side also holds true. If the exporter is getting less money in their local currency – that they pay their employees and local suppliers in, then they will attempt to squeeze costs tighter to maintain a profit margin.

      You can expect major readjustments to the markets (especially the US which is highly price sensitive) with the economic disruptions that causes and the loss of value from the waste of marketing and investment infrastructure buildup over the years in target markets (and anyone who thinks that those are cheap clearly hasn’t done work in the US market).

      Locally that translates to fewer jobs as companies retrench while looking for other markets. You will also see companies fail from the impact shocks.

      Basically you’re dreaming – take it from someone who has been exporting all my working life.

      • grumpy czeching in 11.1.1

        Basically, at the level you are describing you are correct. But, on a more macro level, NZ will not improve real wage rates until our economy can sustain high exports with a high exchange rate.

        Higher NZ returns based on a low $NZ only give the illusion of doing well.

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