Written By: Guest post - Date published: 12:33 pm, September 28th, 2011 - 20 comments
Categories: im/migration -
Tags: broken promises
h/t Phil Goff
– Bright Red
Would be good to see a chart showing the rise or decrease of Austaralians migrating to NZ during the same period. Logic suggests it would also be decreasing
Yeah, the ‘cumulative’ nature of this graph is a little misleading. What this graph actually shows is that emigration is almost constant (which is a story in it’s self), while it gives the impression that is has constantly increased.
The rate doesn’t look that different from 2008 to 2011, not a very good graph.
Would like to see clear figures on the number of people moving each quarter without stacking the fingers into a running total.
BTW I don’t blame them for moving, it sounds like you getting a better deal in OZ for doing the same work as here.
Wonder how it looks overlaid over the previous govt’s data. If it’s not that different it probably shows there is precious little the govt can do about it.
Umm that isn’t what you said back in 2008. Then you were arguing that it was too early to see a trend, implying that the governments policies had not had an effect yet.
BTW: the rate is still increasing. I guess they are heading away from the bright smiles of a do nothing government? I know that it has crossed my mind several times in the last couple of years as I’ve watched National screw things up largely through their characteristic short-term stupidity.
I guess you have simply changed your mind because it is clear that these dorks are useless?
No that’s not what I said at all -I’m sure you are better at reading context than that. It would make political sense to compare and contrast the data given Key made a song and dance about reversing the numbers under Labour. If that hasn’t happened you should be hoeing into him and rightfully so.
BTW It’s pretty desperate of you Lynn to trawl the archive and drag up a post from three years ago just because it tangentially mentions emigration data. Slow day?
If that hasn’t happened..
It hasn’t as far as I’m aware – it has gotten worse. But yeah, a graph showing that would be a good idea.
It’s pretty desperate of you Lynn to trawl the archive and drag up a post from three years ago just because it tangentially mentions emigration data
I did a major update and moved the front-end search engine between servers the other day. So I’m still testing it with queries to see if anything is broken. In this case the query was on the comments only with the text
emigration @author insider
insider – if there isn’t much the govt can do about it then National making a song and dance about how they’d stop it is in itself an issue.
Exactly. You’d expect labour to be all over it given the most recent emigration stats are at the highest level since early 2008. If the economy is that good relatively, why the ongoing exodus? Maybe they are saving this one up…
/statistics 101 fail
Or, you’d look at the average rate/month over two 3 year terms (can’t do all three, introduces issues, r.e. non-orthogonality) and do a quick and dirty 2 sample t test, or run an ANOVA in excel and see if there’s any statistically significant differences. Instead of eyeballing, for which, if untrained by years of stats, the human brain is prone to falling to a priori assumptions.
Stats, it might be boring, but it’s worth knowing the basics so you don’t look like an ignorant fool.
But Key was going to stop the best and brightest leaving! He hasnt, once again all talk, this guy was going to do so much and he has delivered on virtually nothing infact almost everything has deteriorated, poverty is up unemployment is up GST is up Government debt is up? But taxes for the rich have come down ……….go figure.
johnny sparkle has done a lot for our best and brightest!! he organised it so that they get the best chance to make a decent living…. do challenging work that increases their earning potential….. have confidence that their children will have better opportunities when they grow up……
it’s not his fault the only place that would take them off his hands was australia..england..france..germany..south east asia…america…africa…the middle east……oh , and canada…..
it’s our fault for not having “faith” in his economic “genius” and hiring all these people on the spot, and paying them huge wages simply because they are clever…
Quite right Craig and John Key is up himself
More tax-cuts should do it, right? Still very much planning to get on a plane sometime soon.
Around November 27th…
Most meaningless graph out.
Unless there is a graph showing net migration to NZ it is all pretty meaningless.
The other important aspect that is unmentioned is that Australia has two economies, the dig-it-up-and-sell-it-overseas economy, and the rest. The mining economy was booming because of the rapid growth of China and the general worldwide shortage of resources. Meanwhile, the rest of the Aussie economy was languishing.
There is now considerable evidence that the resources boom is coming to an abrupt end, which will result in tens of thousands of people losing lucritive employment, i.e. out of the frying pan into the fire.
Definitely a case of ‘watch for further developments’, bearing in mind that we are at a point of major discontinuity in human history due to peak oil and severe climate change.
Here’s a link with a graph of net monthly migration stats since ’01.
Towards the end of 2008 there was a surge in net migration to NZ. That has been steadily declining so that over the past months it has hovered just below 0. For August it climbed back over 0 to a total of +200.
I thought I heard at one point that efforts were being made to make it easier to migrate to NZ (especially for those with money), yet now there are just about as many leaving as arriving (if not more). It must say something.
That’s an interesting graph.
For a while the Aussie dollar was around $1.10 US and Aussies were flying all over the place, while Brits amd Americans were staying home.
Economic conditions have deteriorated throughout most of the world in recent weeks, causing oil prices to fall. That will create a new delusion that the crisis is over, when in practice it’s only just begun.
Where I am living, the rugby is now all over, the tents have been taken down, and soon the flags will be gone. The fast buck from selling beer and food has been made. Reality will hit next week. (Having said that, many retailers I have spoken with recently have been struggling through the RWC fever.)
Pre-Christmas sales to try to drag in some cash to pay the lease? The lower NZ dollar will push up import costs and depress sales even more.
What WILL Shonkey do to bribe the voters?
Oh, I nearly forgot: “Building a brighter future.”
Is that because Global Dimming will decrease due to declining economic activity, I wonder.
Nice selective graph. To play your game:
Kiwi citizens permanent/long-term to/from Australia (net):
2006 – 2008 (August years) -81,000
2009 – 2011 (August years) -76,000
More Kiwis returned to NZ and fewer left between 2009 -2011 than 2006-2008.
Wow what does that tell us – SFA
Stats NZ (International Migration August 2011)
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