Election night roundup

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, November 26th, 2011 - 350 comments
Categories: election 2011 - Tags:

We will try to keep updated with the results of the election as they come through. And we hope that you will do the same in comments. Hopefully we’ll keep the level of punditry down to a less boring level than dead time fill requires for broadcast media.

Feel free to tell us what you’re seeing in your neck of the woods.

Scoop has the bullshit buster Keith Ng doing the numbers and charts. 2011 NZ Election Results Graphic & Charts. That will be worth watching.

2245:
Phil Goff doing concession. Good campaign. Not a good result.
But we do have a number of new MP’s.
Lost a few. Like Kelvin Davis.
Need a bigger hall.. Too many media.
2210:
John Banks is a singleton MP. Adjunct National MP
2200:
Paula Bennett is done.
Looks like Auckland Central is going the Wrong way.
Tau Henares isn’t well liked.
2126:
NZF now certain to return to Parliament with around 6.8%. Let Key’s nightmares begin.
2120:
Epsom – Goldsmith is overhauling Banks yay!
2100:
Looks like Damien O’Conner has recovered West Coast Tasman
2050:
I’ve been picking that the Maori party will lose a seat
Waiariki looks tight after 27% count
Tāmaki Makaurau – really really tight after 11%.
2020:
NZ First looks like they will break the 5% and then some.
Greens are doing well.
Electorate results for electorates with high counts look predictable.
2005:
Bad news for National with 5.5% counted
Based on the early returns it looks to me like they won’t break 50%. Labour is holding up well
1935:
Epsom with 6.4% of the vote – again small booths.
John Banks 46%, Goldsmith 37%, and Parker 9%
1930:
All pretty boring with low returns at this point (and these will be as usual the small churches and schools with traditionally conservative voters.Early Referendum results at 3% are therefore interesting:
retain MMP 55%
alternative is FPP 48%

350 comments on “Election night roundup ”

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  1. LynW 1
    26 November 2011 at 7:02 pm

    Great! Welcome back! Looking forward to the results!

  2. Carol 2
    26 November 2011 at 7:03 pm

    Bomber says there was a large turnout in Sth Auckland:
    http://twitter.com/#!/CitizenBomber/status/140309308175953922

  3. kriswgtn 3
    26 November 2011 at 7:05 pm

    Levin had a good turn out @ the polling booth across the road from home- was packed from 9am omwards and was steady til 6.55pm

  4. ghostwhowalksnz 4
    26 November 2011 at 7:08 pm

    When are we going to see early results based on the polling booths last time. For too many years now , we just results from small ( mostly rural ) booths and they are just aggregated by electorate and compared as a % with the final electorate result last time.
    Surely with computer spreadsheets they can compare early results with the same early booths last time. ie this is the result from 6 booths from say Taupo and it is compared with the SAME 6 booths from last election.

    Its not rocket science, a smartphone could handle it easy.

    Come on TV3 and TV1, lift your game.

    • Michael 4.1
      26 November 2011 at 7:15 pm

      That’s not a bad idea, but it would be much, much easier if we had electronic voting in the first place.

      • lprent 4.1.1
        26 November 2011 at 7:19 pm

        For whom? I’d like something to hack

        • Draco T Bastard 4.1.1.1
          26 November 2011 at 8:08 pm

          Done properly it’ll be as secure as paper voting. Hell, I think it could actually be more secure simply because the voters would be able to check their votes.

          • Colonial Viper 4.1.1.1.1
            27 November 2011 at 10:01 am

            Say NO to computerised voting. ‘Done properly’ nope its a joke and far less resilient than our already very efficient paper systems which in the case of an unexpected event are far more resilient and reliable, and far less susceptible to wide spread tampering.

            Any distributed computer system can be penetrated and results changed at a key stroke. NO NETWORKED COMPUTERS ON GALACTICA!

            Remember the original question was simply why can’t the TV put up the results in a sensible statistical fashion. It has nothing to do with the voting system, It has everything to do with the choices of election show execs and the general dumbing down of TV.

      • freedom 4.1.2
        26 November 2011 at 7:24 pm

        like the machines in the US where the manufacturer testified in a Senate hearing that they can pre-programme them to produce any number they wish no matter what the voters do on the day?

  5. marsman 5
    26 November 2011 at 7:11 pm

    Holding my breath!

  6. brett Dale 6
    26 November 2011 at 7:12 pm

    Small turn out in the booth that i went to in. chch east., tv3 is way better than tvnz, giving early results already.

  7. brett Dale 7
    26 November 2011 at 7:13 pm

    mmp is here to stay.

    • Colonial Viper 7.1
      27 November 2011 at 10:03 am

      Nah the Tories have set the referendum up so they have a second bite off the MMP cherry in 2014. Although against FPP, MMP will come out ahead. Probably.

  9. lurgee 9
    26 November 2011 at 7:14 pm

    National 48%, Labour 31%, Greens 12%, no ACT, no NZ First, probably no United Furture. 2 MPs for Mana, because I voted for them.

  10. Redbaron77 10
    26 November 2011 at 7:15 pm

    I scrutineered at a booth in Northcote electorate. There were very few quiet periods with steady streams of people coming in throughout the day…

  11. DS 11
    26 November 2011 at 7:15 pm

    Christchurch Central and the booth over the road seemed very busy.

  12. lurgee 12
    26 November 2011 at 7:18 pm

    Go Goldsmith!!

    (Just feels odd cheering on a Nat!)

  13. Salsy 13
    26 November 2011 at 7:18 pm

    Nat only on 50% but advancd votes favour Nat. Means only going down from here…

  14. brett Dale 14
    26 November 2011 at 7:19 pm

    So national to finish at 47% of party vote and labour around 30%. Seems the polls were right.

    • McFlock 14.1
      26 November 2011 at 8:37 pm

      You mean the polls that were averaging 50-51% a couple of days ago, and 56-59% NACT a month ago?

  15. lurgee 15
    26 November 2011 at 7:20 pm

    Wonder if this will be a 2005 election, where Labour started 10% behind and dragged it back, point by painful point, or if it will be a 2008 election, where there was very little movement from the initial shares?

  16. brett Dale 16
    26 November 2011 at 7:20 pm

    Whats happening with the electoral seats? If your a blogger are you allowed to call it?

  17. Pete 17
    26 November 2011 at 7:25 pm

    Nattional has slipped under 50% with 3.3% counted

    http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html

  18. brett Dale 18
    26 November 2011 at 7:25 pm

    So I can call it? if not you can delete, National wins the election, they wont need a coalition party but may take one in.

    That was a short night.

  19. brett Dale 19
    26 November 2011 at 7:27 pm

    TV3 is giving much better coverage with the results.

    • jpwood 19.1
      26 November 2011 at 7:33 pm

      Agree TV3 ahead at this early stage, large booths from South Auckland migth swing it back to TVNZ but ironically the wasted votes on Maori TV might be the differance between the two.

      • McFlock 19.1.1
        26 November 2011 at 8:31 pm

        But although TV3 have a commanding position, have they lost the chance of getting an outright majority in the ratings simply because they still breathe air into Paul Henry?

  20. gobsmacked 20
    26 November 2011 at 7:30 pm

    Advance voting is a good guide …

    http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus-early.html

    I’ll bet one large chocolate fish that Winston is back.

    And so is Key, alas.

    • freedom 20.1
      26 November 2011 at 7:38 pm

      I watched the first fifteen minutes of coverage and it has to be said
      Two networks
      Two panels of experts
      A dozen blokes and only ONE woman?

      luckily someone at SKY has a sense of humour and Predators is on, so is Carrie
      What a night for work to be so slow, i could use the distraction.

      • weka 20.1.1
        26 November 2011 at 7:47 pm

        Ae, and add in MaoriTV and there are another four blokes and one woman (although they rotating their panel).

  21. brett Dale 21
    26 November 2011 at 7:35 pm

    Banks is in, it would seem.

    • Salsy 21.1
      26 November 2011 at 7:43 pm

      Banks is only ahead by 401 points. Early votes favour the (far) right…

      • gobsmacked 21.1.1
        26 November 2011 at 7:50 pm

        Banks will win by less than the number who wasted their vote on the Labour and Green candidates.

        Thanks, guys!

    • millsy 21.2
      26 November 2011 at 9:58 pm

      And only Banks. So we essentially have a National MP with an ACT membership card in his wallet.

  22. Carol 22
    26 November 2011 at 7:35 pm

    Sepuloni is taking it to Paula Benefit… CS by 39 after 7.7%

  23. Salsy 23
    26 November 2011 at 7:36 pm

    Key is headed well below 49%, trending down..

  24. SukieDamson 24
    26 November 2011 at 7:44 pm

    TV1: Boiled licorice allsort anyone ?

  25. weka 25
    26 November 2011 at 7:45 pm

    MaoriTV is giving an overview of the Maori Seats.

  26. just saying 26
    26 November 2011 at 7:47 pm

    Just checked out my electorate. Glad I party-voted Labour because in these (extremely early times) National is close, and the very popular Green candidate is polling strongly. I do like this particular Labour candidate a lot (though not as much as the green candidate), and though it is a safe Labour seat, a strong Green electorate vote could do some damage.

    They haven’t counted my list vote yet. Mana isn’t registering.

    Had a quick look at ChCh. Chilling so far.

  27. mickysavage 27
    26 November 2011 at 7:56 pm

    This could be a very interesting night. Nats 49 left (including Peters …) 44 and the big urban booths to come in …

  28. brett Dale 28
    26 November 2011 at 8:03 pm

    Will National take in Banks or will they want to govern alone and again the polls were right, apart from having the greens a tad too high and nzfirst too low.

    So who is going to be labours new leader for 2014?

  29. Anthony 29
    26 November 2011 at 8:09 pm

    Looking like a Green vote split in Auckland Central yet again.

    :facepalm:

    • Fermionic Interference 29.1
      26 November 2011 at 10:32 pm

      and ohariu and labour green split epsom allowing the racist one in.
      For shame NZers who don’t understand their electoral system.

  30. DJL 30
    26 November 2011 at 8:10 pm

    Anyone get a licence plate on the Holden in Cuba St? Sorry to change the subject, just came on the news. I’m on 1

  31. Insider 31
    26 November 2011 at 8:27 pm

    Check out Gonzo Gower on TV3. Pissed already.

  32. millsy 32
    26 November 2011 at 8:48 pm

    Winston’s coming back 🙂

    But Banks may be too, with Brash 🙁

    Labour are getting their asses kicked, but the Greens seem to be doing OK. Mana’s proving to be a fizzer.

  33. Salsy 33
    26 November 2011 at 8:56 pm

    Geez Jacinda is so cool…

  34. lprent 34
    26 November 2011 at 8:58 pm

    Off to Labours Auckland Central for a visit. iPad/iPhone so I might drop off. Others will add to the post when they have time.

  35. Sookie 35
    26 November 2011 at 8:59 pm

    They are taking a suspiciously long time to count Epsom votes. Still only 6% or so. I was thinking of making a ‘F*ck You, Epsom’ sign to put in my rental car when I come up to Auckland in a couple of weeks, but I was hoping I wouldn’t have to.

  36. Salsy 36
    26 November 2011 at 9:01 pm

    Epsom closing Banks lead reduced from 401 to 330… only 8.5% counted
    http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-12.html

  37. Dan Hansen 37
    26 November 2011 at 9:09 pm

    Appears to be a ‘rogue’ election result eh!

    I guess the debate over the horizon poll and landlines is well and truly over!

    • gobsmacked 37.1
      26 November 2011 at 9:25 pm

      @Dan Hansen

      Could you provide a link to the polls (landline) which predicted the NZ First result?

      Could you provide a link to the polls (landline) which predicted the Epsom result?

      Just one will do …

  38. Blue 38
    26 November 2011 at 9:09 pm

    Don’t worry about Epsom. If Banks wins, Act’s party vote means he’ll be their only MP in Parliament. It was a waste of time Key trying to save him – they may as well have just let Goldsmith win.

    • jaymam 38.1
      26 November 2011 at 10:41 pm

      Banks winning is still one more seat to go with National. Same with Dunne. If the left wing voters had done a proper job they could easily have got rid of both those, by NOT voting for the Labour and Green candidates. I have been saying that for months. When will the left voters understand this?

      • mikesh 38.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 1:17 am

        There were probably many National voters who voted for Goldsmith. When will THEY ever learn? It cuts both ways.

  39. RedBaron 39
    26 November 2011 at 9:10 pm

    Seen New Lynn, party vote Nat, cadidate vote Labour.
    Did i hear TV3 call Steven Joyce the (Key) family dog?

  40. Michael 40
    26 November 2011 at 9:11 pm

    So, Chris Trotter just remarked on TV3 that this is shaping up to be our WORST ever result. Labour first contested an election in 1919, and if it keeps going the way it looks like it is tonight, we could be up for a sad, sad result. Shame.

    Perhaps Phil Goff will turn out to be our Bill English?

  41. gobsmacked 41
    26 November 2011 at 9:16 pm

    Fascinating vindication of MMP tonight.

    Labour are losing about 6-7% of the party vote on 2008, but may not lose any electorates (net). They could gain two or three, and lose two or three. So in FPP terms, their result is “unchanged”.

    Just shows how stupid FPP is.

  42. brett Dale 42
    26 November 2011 at 9:23 pm

    So are you guys going to call this election a victory for Labour?

  43. millsy 43
    26 November 2011 at 9:31 pm

    Andrew Little would be kicking the shit out of himself for not taking the Mana nomination last year. Young is handing his ass to him on a plate.

  44. Tangled up in blue 44
    26 November 2011 at 9:42 pm

    Anyone know what percentage National have to drop to in order not to govern alone?

    • Blue 44.1
      26 November 2011 at 9:48 pm

      At the moment it looks like being a 121 seat Parliament. So National needs 61 seats to have a majority.

    • McFlock 44.2
      26 November 2011 at 9:49 pm

      depends on the “wasted” votes – %45 for 10% votes to random parties that don’t make it to parliament, if only 5% are wasted it goes to 47.5%. But that’s without overhang re-tweaking the numbers.
      It’s close.

  45. Afewknowthetruth 45
    26 November 2011 at 9:45 pm

    lprent.

    I never got a chance to answer your previous question.

    I did decide to vote and supported an independent, and a party opposed to the status quo, plus MMP.

    I see that Belgium hasn’t had a ‘proper’ government for 18 months but has a similar credit rating to NZ.

    Posturing and changes of mind by Winnie could keep NZ ungoverned for 18 months. What a delightful thought.

  46. Chess Player 46
    26 November 2011 at 9:47 pm

    Great stuff, you all did well and got Winston back in.
    After you stop laughing, you will start crying….

    • mike 46.1
      26 November 2011 at 10:09 pm

      Who are you talking to Chess Player? The only reason Winston got in is because of the teapot tape fiasco. Before that he had nothing. I believe that was a John Key production.

      • Chess Player 46.1.1
        26 November 2011 at 10:17 pm

        I think you’ll find a number of your contributors voted NZ First just to cause an imbalancing factor, and try to keep the game alive a while longer

        • wtl 46.1.1.1
          26 November 2011 at 10:39 pm

          But only after the teapot scandal revived NZF so that they felt confident that their votes wouldn’t be wasted.

        • McFlock 46.1.1.2
          26 November 2011 at 10:43 pm

          riiiiiight.
           
          I love the “a number” – 1 is a number, but means little.

        • the sprout 46.1.1.3
          26 November 2011 at 11:28 pm

          i think the number was 3, that would totally account for 135,837 NZF votes
          because each standard contributor commands about 45,000 votes 😆

        • mike 46.1.1.4
          26 November 2011 at 11:50 pm

          I don’t disagree with your last point. But I believe my point is more pertinent than yours. Not one of the people you are talking about would have voted as they did if not for the opportunity, gain in the polls, and media exposure handed to Winston by the teapot tapes saga. Not one. Again, before that he had nothing.

          Was it worth a try? Absolutely. If Labour could have got more seats the left might just have been able to form a govt. We didn’t. Lucky old Winston. John Key gave him an openning, and he grabbed it. And you must be nuts if you think the majority of his votes came from ‘us’. They came from the teapot tapes. Great stuff John Key.

          A cup of tea can go a long way. Bigoted, racist, arrogant, narcississic John Banks in parliament? Great stuff John Key.

          • jbc 46.1.1.4.1
            26 November 2011 at 11:52 pm

            Bigoted, racist, arrogant, narcississic John Banks in parliament?

            Winston and Andrew Williams are a bigger worry for me tbh.

            • mike 46.1.1.4.1.1
              27 November 2011 at 12:47 am

              Winston’s just an opportunist career politician who goes with the entertainment factor. I’d prefer him to a right-wing lock ’em up racist like Banks in any role, any day. Williams could have a brain-explosion at any moment.

              I’m not defending any of these gits. I’m just saying if you’re looking for someone to blame for their presence in parliament, that would be John Key.

              • jbc …
                27 November 2011 at 12:59 am

                I’m not so sure. Banks is pretty transparent as far as I can tell.

                Peters is a dangerous precisely because he is a unprincipled chameleon.

                Peters would sell you a leaky home and give a sworn statement that it is not leaky.
                Banks would sell you a leaky home and say “buyer beware”.

                Look at it another way: I’d rather debate Banks than Peters because I would know where he stood on the topic.

                Seriously, I’d rather have 1 ACT MP than 8 NZF any day. I don’t like either.

                • mike …
                  27 November 2011 at 2:09 am

                  They are both career politicians, just different styles. I think we’re down to opinion on unprincipled chameleon vs unprincipled bigot here. Either way you get a leaky home.

                  “Seriously, I’d rather have 1 ACT MP than 8 NZF any day. I don’t like either.”

                  Seems to be a seperate point to our useless discussion. Like I said, John Key brought the lot of them in. One by design, eight by accident. I not looking for any positives here.

                  • Chess Player …
                    27 November 2011 at 9:05 am

                    Absolutely Key blew a lot of wind in Winston’s sails over the cup of tea, but you need to remember that Winston is an old school politician that is very in touch with his supporter base. He was getting is sails furled around the country halls while the main circus was getting all the MSM attention, and yours and kiwiblogs for that matter. For some reason certain people love the guy – god knows why…and they see him as an underdog which doesn’t help at all…

                    Just look at which vote went down (Labour by 100k) and which went up (Greens by 50k and NZF by 50k) – that’s been the real shift in the balance of vote this time round

                    So, we can thank a good number of Left voters for the fact that Winston is there, and some are regular contributors to this blog, a fact they will no doubt be reminded of over the next 3 years.

                    The double whammy is that some potentially good people on the Labour list don’t get in now because again, not enough party votes, cos they were given to NZF

                    That’s my analysis, and I didn’t have to call anyone ‘nuts’ either in order to state my case

                    • mike …
                      27 November 2011 at 3:56 pm

                      “Just look at which vote went down (Labour by 100k) and which went up (Greens by 50k and NZF by 50k) – that’s been the real shift in the balance of vote this time round

                      So, we can thank a good number of Left voters for the fact that Winston is there…”

                      That’s a rather simplistic analysis. And saying the words “that’s been the real shift” doesn’t make it true.

                      NZ First has both left and right policies, a purely populist approach. I could by your standards claim that Winston got his votes from the demise of ACT (who lost 50k), these are voters after all have shown a willingness to vote for a minor ‘keep the govt in check’ party. ACT has shown itself to be a joke, and more like a ‘do whatever National says’ party, so maybe their supporters looked elsewhere. And it’s Winston’s face on TV courtesy of the teapot tapes, not Peter Dunne.

                      Or I could point out that Winston’s rise in the polls over the last 10 days during the tapes debacle corresponds with National’s drop (they were 54%). Many older voters vote conservative, how many of them, perhaps former NZ First supporters, heard Winston’s “Key disrespects the elderly” cry and came back to the fold. I don’t know, and neither do you. Or maybe some National supporters were offended by Key dealing with a racist bigot hated by many in this country. Some people have principles, (clearly not most Epsom voters, but many other people do).

                      My above argument is pure speculation, but that’s my point, that’s exactly what yours is. Your calculations also assume that Labour did not lose significant numbers to National. That’s a big assumption. No one can have any real idea of what number of previously left vs right voters voted for Winston.

                      He was 36,000 above the 5% threshold. If you suggest that 36,000 labour supporters voted tactically for Winston I just don’t find it credible. That would have taken some organising. That’s more votes than the Maori party got, and they had a national campaign. I must have missed the Peters-Goff cup of tea.

          • mikesh 46.1.1.4.2
            27 November 2011 at 1:25 am

            Don’t blame John Key. Blame the Esom voters, who lacked the moral stamina to vote according to their conscience.

  47. Carol 47
    26 November 2011 at 9:48 pm

    Some interesting electoate results:

    Labour has taken Te Tai Tonga from the MP:

    Paula Bennet leads Sepuloni by 192 vtes @51.9% votes counted

    Ardner has just overtaken kaye @ 70% votes counted

    Crap now Kaye leads by 600 votes @74%

    But Sepuloni has over taken Bennet

  48. sodapaper 48
    26 November 2011 at 9:49 pm

    Dam Peter Dunne is back- ponce going to keep on rolling.

  49. ianmac 49
    26 November 2011 at 9:56 pm

    In view of the polls I think many chose to vote Green or  NZF not so much against Labour but a chance to be strategic voter.
    As it is first term for NACT and traditionally/historically they were expected to win, so I think that the Left has been marvellous. Go Phil.

  50. Pete 50
    26 November 2011 at 9:58 pm

    National just dropped from 61 seats to 60

    Edit: it was picked up by NZF

    • Pete 50.1
      26 November 2011 at 10:11 pm

      That seat’s moving all over the place now. It went back to National, then NZF, now Labour has it.

  51. weka 51
    26 November 2011 at 10:01 pm

    Bennet and Sepuloni neck and neck. TV3 just called Bennet as gone, here’s hoping.

    • kriswgtn 51.1
      26 November 2011 at 10:13 pm

      yeah but porky is on the list so shell be back in
      this is the one thing re MMP i dont agree with
      you lose your seat you should NOT get in on the list

      No matter what party youre in

      god listenin got john banks- someone supaglue his fukin trap
      wot a dick

  52. just saying 52
    26 November 2011 at 10:01 pm

    I’m feeling more optimistic than earlier in the day.

    Key looks like being much more constrained than he might have been. It’s looking like bordering on 50/50 left/right.

    Still hoping for a substantial Labour reshuffle in the near future, but won’t be holding my breath on that one.

    And best of all, I reckon Dunne, ACT, and Key will all be gone in ’14 (if not before).

  53. Sookie 53
    26 November 2011 at 10:05 pm

    Well done Greens, I knew we could make that magic 10% 🙂 Shit, I feel bad for Labour though.

  54. tsmithfield 54
    26 November 2011 at 10:07 pm

    The conservative party vote of nearly 3% plus whatever other wasted vote needs to be distributed around yet. Nearly 50% of that will go to National, so they could go higher yet.

  55. millsy 55
    26 November 2011 at 10:08 pm

    Another big winner on the night has to be the Greens. 13 seats is not a bad effort, given that I thought that those idiots who defaced the billboards would cost them votes.

  56. millsy 56
    26 November 2011 at 10:13 pm

    And unfortunately the worst result for Labour since 1919.

  57. Pete 57
    26 November 2011 at 10:22 pm

    Bloody hell – Brendan Burns is only leading by 4 votes in Christchurch Central http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-4.html

  58. Flossie 58
    26 November 2011 at 10:31 pm

    Not happy that the Greens have said they will go with National – hopefully they will now change their minds and go with Labour! Cannot believe that the Christchurch party is vote going with National – also hurt that everyone forgets workplace safety when voting National too…corporate greed is alive and kicking. I am so upset thus far with tonight’s results. Go Lianne!

    • sean maitland 58.1
      26 November 2011 at 10:40 pm

      Its indicative that hard working Kiwis want a party that works for them. Hand ups not hand outs etc etc

      Good to see the party that had integrity on its campaign and didn’t resort to mud-slinging and gutter politiking is getting to form the next government and take NZ into a brighter future.

      Two thumbs up NZ!

    • Brooklyn 58.2
      26 November 2011 at 10:47 pm

      No, the Greens didn’t say that. Just the same MOU as last time which I think is a very constructive way of approaching opposition. Unhappy about the Christchurch electorate vote, Labour’s Chch MPs have worked very hard. Alas the knob-end vote is very strong this time around.

  59. Carol 59
    26 November 2011 at 10:31 pm

    What difference will the specials/overseas votes make? Don’t The Greens sometimes pick up an extra seat with those?

    • wtl 59.1
      26 November 2011 at 10:34 pm

      Yes, they traditional favour the Greens (one theory being that many specials are cast by students who live away from their electorates). I’d be cautious about assuming too much at this stage, but if National+Act+UF lead by only 1 MP, I’d say they would definitely not feel safe until the specials are counted.

      • Carol 59.1.1
        26 November 2011 at 10:44 pm

        Well, they have the Maori Party too…. what a sell-out they are! I hope the Greens don’t support the Nats.

        But the NAct-UF-MP government wouldn’t have a big majority.

        The Greens made an effort to campaign overseas because they know they can pick up votes there.

  60. William Joyce 60
    26 November 2011 at 10:32 pm

    The two John’s slagged the elderly but…. the more I listen to Banks I get the feeling that he is suffering from some age related loss of acuity.
    Perhaps I haven’t been paying attention but has he always been like this?

  61. CentreOfLeft 61
    26 November 2011 at 10:36 pm

    Oh God, what if Key gives Banks the Local Govt portfolio?

  62. Blue 62
    26 November 2011 at 10:42 pm

    Epsom’s gone to Banks and Ohariu to Dunne.

    Act and United Future stagger on, living to fight another three years.

    • sean maitland 62.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:11 pm

      I lived 7 years in Ohariu, and used to see Peter Dunne out walking quite often – even during force 5 storms with trees and cars getting blown around, not a hair would be out of place. When I’m age I would love that hair!

  63. gobsmacked 63
    26 November 2011 at 10:47 pm

    National will lose a seat on specials (they usually do).

    Key’s majority will depend on the whips doing a good (i.e. tough) job. One MP goes astray, and National’s majority on legislation could disappear.

    Overall, it could have been a lot worse for the broad left. EVERY conventional poll predicted National would govern alone – yes, every single one (see pundit blog for details). In the end, Key depends on four old people who have no future (Banks, Dunne, Turia, Sharples).

  64. Deadly_NZ 64
    26 November 2011 at 10:48 pm

    Oh well time to sell everything and look to head to Aus if there’s enough money to go.

    In 3 years time NZ could be a dirty, broke, country, with leaking oil rigs, and mines in our national parks. The wages will not go up, but Prices and Unemployment will. But it will be so hard to get a benefit there will be so many hoops to jump through that some will not bother to try, so crime numbers will climb. Burglary and other property crime will skyrocket. Yep the rich are about to make a Killing. And We are going to have to pay for it for the rest of our lives.

    • Draco T Bastard 64.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:01 pm

      Oh well time to sell everything and look to head to Aus if there’s enough money to go.

      That’s what I was thinking.

      In 3 years time NZ could be a dirty, broke, country…

      No could be – will be.

      • lovinthatchangefeeling 64.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 12:51 am

        See ya. Do you need a ride to the airport coward?

        [lprent: Pointless abuse isn’t tolerated. Where is your point?. Read the policy. ]

        • Bazar 64.1.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 1:58 am

          Pointless abuse not tolerated?
          Where is that statement against half of vipers posts?

          Most of his posts just abuse me for no reason other then he disagrees, and in an nonconstructive abusive manor?

          [lprent: CV says why he is abusing you, if not in the direct comment, then in the comments immediately preceding. That is establishing a point and is what I am looking for. You may not agree with the point – but that is yours to argue with. Which since you often don’t engage in the discussion preferring instead to pontificate… CV isn’t particularly subtle or often effective but he does mostly follow the rules here.

          I don’t moderate on politeness. I moderate on things that constrain or destroy the debate. Pointless abuse leads to boring flamewars. Pointed abuse that doesn’t get too out of hand tends to free debate because it is frequently satirical about entrenched unthought through positions ]

      • lprent 64.1.2
        27 November 2011 at 1:04 am

        Yeah. There is little to nothing in the National policy to grow anything apart from pollution. I could increase my earnings by 30% or so in a lower cost economy and export the same intellectual property from Aussie.

        And I could look at combining my old earth sciences skills with programming – which would be kind of interesting.

    • infused 64.2
      27 November 2011 at 12:00 am

      Get a grip you moron.

      [lprent: where is your point? Or should I make one? ]

  65. Labour4Life 65
    26 November 2011 at 10:57 pm

    Congratulations to National, you ran a better campaign, had better ideas and had a stronger leader.

    Well deserved win.

    This is a positive for the Labour Party, they can now brainstorm and formulate new ideas that are more consistent with the times we live in.

  66. William Joyce 66
    26 November 2011 at 10:57 pm

    Striving for nobility and all the virtues that lift the human race above the beasts of the field matters not a jot when the masses would rather favour a vacuous smile, an absence of credible policy, and a campaign designed to ignore complex ideas that would engage the fully evolved human brain, but catered simplistic soundbites that are designed to only stimulate the most primitive parts of the human-animal brain.
     
    The day is approaching when people will wake up to the shit they have been served. That soylent green is people and that it is better to live outside the matrix than inside it with National.
     
    Time for Labour to go back to the Labour of Savage.
     
    Hang Savage’s picture in every living room.
    Occupy the Savage Memorial.

    • T 66.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:07 pm

      The day is approaching when people will wake up to the shit they have been served.

      People will recognise that they’ve been served shit, but I suspect that they will blame politicians in general (and bad luck and themselves), rather than any particular brand of politician.

    • prism 66.2
      26 November 2011 at 11:08 pm

      WJ Don’t be too tough on the beasts of the field. They never sink too our lows. We are so fiendishly clever more of the time than we are high minded intellectuals and humanists.

    • seeker 66.3
      27 November 2011 at 12:50 am

      @ William Joyce

      “Striving for nobility and all the virtues that lift the human race above the beasts of the field matters not a jot when the masses would rather favour a vacuous smile, an absence of credible policy….” and – lies -even though they were warned and shown the lies being told.

      “….it is better to live outside the matrix than inside it with National.”

      Sadly I have to agree with you. I am deeply ashamed of many New Zealanders now. I will find it difficult to engage with anyone who is a Nat supporter. Their preference for selfish, shallow,
      duplicitous leadership to lead our fine country smacks of wilful ignorance and betrayal to to me. I so dislike lies and treachery and the horrible atmosphere of mistrust they thrive in that it will be better to disengage with all things national than to live having to feign respect for the shallow specimens of humanity that they apparently are.

  67. Anthony 67
    26 November 2011 at 10:59 pm

    My god, Bennett won, bet she is thanking the Green voters at the moment.

  68. brett Dale 68
    26 November 2011 at 11:00 pm

    Disaster for Labour.

    Winston the big winner.

    National to govern with one coalition partner.

    New that the greens wouldnt get 13% and NZfirst was polling too low.

    Hope its a great three years.

  69. Trowlie 69
    26 November 2011 at 11:00 pm

    It’s a draw in Christchurch central. The specials will decide!

  70. prism 70
    26 November 2011 at 11:00 pm

    A tie in Christchurch Central between Brendan Burns and Nikki Wagner at 10.493 each plus some special votes to go I think.

  71. Pete 71
    26 November 2011 at 11:05 pm

    Goodness me, with 100% of votes in, it’s a dead heat in Christchurch Central. It’s down to specials I guess.

    • DS 71.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:31 pm

      Burns will take it. High proportion of special votes due to EQ displacement. And he really has been phenomenally hard working for his constituents over the EQ issues.

  72. Ben 72
    26 November 2011 at 11:08 pm

    Well. That’s that, then.

    This is what New Zealand has voted for. And while the majority of people here don’t agree that the outcome will be the best for the country in the long haul, it’s a democratically elected government and we have to live with it.

    Credit to National for managing to pull this off. I think the political landscape will look very different in three years.

    I didn’t vote for John Key, but I hope he does a good job. (Hope in the absence of faith.)

  73. trademark 73
    26 November 2011 at 11:08 pm

    65% voter turnout according to TV One. Rather sad.

    • rosy 73.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:12 pm

      Agreed, that’s the story of the night really. Take the PR people off politicians. Make the pollies connect.

    • sodapaper 73.2
      26 November 2011 at 11:14 pm

      Yer thats a shocker

    • Pete 73.3
      26 November 2011 at 11:27 pm

      Total turnout in 2008 was 79.46% and National received 1,053,398 votes

      With special votes and 0.3% of the polling places to be counted, the Nats would still need to pick up around 100k votes to match 2008.

    • lprent 73.4
      27 November 2011 at 12:04 am

      Damn. That is bad……

    • jimmy 73.5
      27 November 2011 at 9:02 am

      You have to look as far back as the 19th century for the last time turn out was that low. A sad day in our history – the non voters judge all politicians to be the greater evil.

  74. Sookie 74
    26 November 2011 at 11:10 pm

    RWNJ’s have little cause to be smug really. This is essentially a 50/50 split parliament between centre left/centre right, with the Nats nicking vote share off Zombie Act and not growing in popularity but maintaining. The wretched Maori party will be toast at the next election if they go into government, vote for asset sales and the economic situation gets worse for Maori voters, particularly if Turia and Sharples retire. Bit of a dilemma for them.

    • wtl 74.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:18 pm

      Well said. It is a win for Key, as pretty much everyone expected, but not the win he would have wanted. Labour had a bad result, but again the result wasn’t unexpected. This election was always going to be hard for Labour to win, and at least they managed to limit the damage with many of the votes being picked up by the Green Party, which are in many ways their natural partner. On the plus side, it was a good campaign for Labour, and if they can continue to build on it they should recover in 2014. Hopefully, the Greens can build as well, and all the best to their new MPs.

      • William Joyce 74.1.1
        26 November 2011 at 11:35 pm

        This is a stark result of a fractured left against a monolithic right.
        Time for the left to talk turkey with each other. Not to enter into coalition with the right.
        We need a conference of left leaders, with the aim of deciding on what we agree on what we share as values for our country, a code of conduct about what we will say of each other to avoid disharmony, and to take an aggressive role in changing NZ back to a caring human society.
         
        The right, internationally, have infected NZ with pro-corporate policies, exploitation of us and our fellow NZdrs by pro-international-capital and it needs to be stopped.

    • Gosman 74.2
      26 November 2011 at 11:27 pm

      NZ First and the Conservatives aren’t center left. Even if you only include 50% of support for NZ first as center right the split is far more along the lines of 55% to 45 % split. That to me is suggestive of a decent majority support for the Right.

      Anyway our Prime Minister is about to speak.

  75. Tangled up in blue 75
    26 November 2011 at 11:12 pm

    So if National has backed their own horse in Epsom then they would have had 61 seats?

    • Blue 75.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:14 pm

      They effectively have 61 seats anyway. Let’s not pretend Banksy is anything other than a National MP in drag.

      • trademark 75.1.1
        26 November 2011 at 11:34 pm

        Not exactly modern National Party material. Courtesy of Epsom, the war on dole-collecting porn-watching pot-smoking gentry-burgling polynesians begins.

        National’s favourites, on the other hand, tend to be solo mothers on the DPB.

    • jaymam 75.2
      26 November 2011 at 11:20 pm

      If Goldsmith had won, National would still have 60 seats. The people who voted for the Labour and Green candidates have given National an extra seat, i.e. Banks.

      • wtl 75.2.1
        26 November 2011 at 11:28 pm

        Not necessarily – the extra seat would go to whoever has the greatest Sainte-Laguë quotient. But with the current counts, you are right, NZF would have picked up the extra seat.

    • Puddleglum 75.3
      27 November 2011 at 11:02 pm

      No.

      They would have 48% of seats (well, after getting rid of the ‘wasted’ vote). Epsom is an extra seat for National, in effect.

      It’s additional to the 48%, so better than if they had won it themselves, in which case one fewer National list candidate would have got in.

  76. ianmac 76
    26 November 2011 at 11:22 pm

    The poisoned chalice will probably be at work. Didn’t like to say so during the election But the Economic crisis looming will be very tough on us and on Key to manage let alone keep to his promise about balancing the books.

    • M 76.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:41 pm

      Yes ianmac, a poisoned chalice indeed.

      Wonder if there might be a snap election come 2013 when GD2 has had some time to seriously bed in.

  77. RedLogix 77
    26 November 2011 at 11:23 pm

    Same as last election… huge numbers of conservative working class people still punishing Labour for the S59 reform and not voting. They may well carry on doing so for a generation.

    65% turnout is appallingly low… that’s the other disaster here.

    • Redbaron77 77.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:45 pm

      As an illustration I’ve just checked my electorate – Northcote’s polling figure. In 2008 35,459 people voted. However only 29,577 provisionally cast their vote for 2011 (2005 it was 34,809). There will be special’s to come through but a 16% drop in the turnout is worrying. Seems like the booth I was scrutineering which had a solid throughput of voters all day long was the exception rather than the norm for the electorate.

    • KJT 77.2
      27 November 2011 at 7:13 am

      The goof was the retirement age this time.

      Labour should have got far enough away from Neo-liberalism to abandon that right wing TINA meme.

  78. William Joyce 78
    26 November 2011 at 11:25 pm

    What is the role of the MSM in this?
    They will say, “we had our finger on the pulse and that is why we predicted what we did.”
    Bollocks! They did not do (were not allowed to do) the research that was needed to check the facts, to ask the probing questions, to distance themselves from John Key when he dropped into the gallery to offer them a bottle of wine for Christmas – (made in the wineries he denied any knowledge that he owned)
     
    For 2014 the people need to be educated that they need to by pass the choke point of the MSM and go online (or elsewhere) for in-depth thinking. The MSM media are too vulnerable to the slick-willie PR presidential Steven Joyce campaigns and they need to be by-passed.
     
    The corporate media DO NOT serve democracy. They buy it.

    • Gosman 78.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:29 pm

      Yeah like the way they sycophantically followed John Key’s line on the Teapot tapes – not!

    • Zola 78.2
      26 November 2011 at 11:57 pm

      I totally agree with you on this. The media in New Zealand do an apallingly poor job. Without the internet I wouldn’t have a clue what was going on. Thanks to The Standard and its writers and commenters for helping to keep me informed and sane over this past year.

      • infused 78.2.1
        27 November 2011 at 12:06 am

        Oh bullshit. Everyone was able to find out whatever they wanted. Key and National got nailed in the final 2 weeks and guess what? National barely lost any votes. Does that not tell you something?

        • Zola 78.2.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 12:19 am

          I don’t think a little sideshow over a cuppatea was keeping people informed – and as you say it was only over the last two weeks. Key has had an incredibly easy ride over the last three years. The media are lazy and many jouralists are unprofessional hacks.

          • seeker 78.2.1.1.1
            27 November 2011 at 1:22 am

            @ Zola 11.57pm and 12.19am

            Could not agree more with both your comments. The media for the most part is lazy, unprofessional and often biased.Some bad cases of Murdochlike canker I’d say.

  79. Herodotus 79
    26 November 2011 at 11:26 pm

    Hate to see what it would have looked like had Phil not performed as well as he did and Key looked so tired.
    Also that those in Labour support Phil and don’t hang him out, there are 4-6 MP’s who owe him their position due to his performance. Hate to see this go viral.

    • DS 79.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:29 pm

      Phil was outstanding.

      • Trowlie 79.1.1
        26 November 2011 at 11:46 pm

        Absolutely. Phil is awesome. You certainly can’t blame him.

        • marty mars 79.1.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 12:00 am

          I agree – the whole labour caucus, advisers and whatnot have to take the blame. Phil was just the leader that got this result.

          • KJT 79.1.1.1.1
            27 November 2011 at 7:17 am

            Congratulations to Phil Goff. Hanging in there and soldering on even when it looked hopeless.

            Showed he would make a good Prime Minister.

            He has grown into the job and made me and others who doubted his abilities, eat our words.

            He probably will not get another chance, but he has earned it.

            The election result shows bullshit beats competence.

          • William Joyce 79.1.1.1.2
            27 November 2011 at 8:46 am

            His party has of take some of the blame eg Damien O’Connor for spitting the dummy and handing National an occasion to talk leadership struggle, Paul Little for being a useless party leader and raising shit-all money (bring back Williams!).

  80. Gosman 80
    26 November 2011 at 11:32 pm

    Certainly a good atmosphere at the National party shindig. John Key looking very happy and winnerish 🙂

    • fender 80.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:39 pm

      Yeah all those old ducks and their jewelery make a brighter future look a reality

    • CentreOfLeft 80.2
      26 November 2011 at 11:42 pm

      Indeed… he looks like a freshly-wanked cock

    • infused 80.3
      27 November 2011 at 12:07 am

      Gotta love the hate here. This is why Labour isn’t in power.

      [lprent: as far as I can tell you are the cause in only a few comments. Banned for 4 weeks because you should know better than trying to invite a flamewar. ]

  81. Matthew Hooton 81
    26 November 2011 at 11:33 pm

    If it is any consolation for you lot, check out the change in this iPredict stock: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=PM.2014.NATIONAL
    I think it is still overpriced. I think 2014 will be very difficult after the Act and UF results.

  82. Dv 82
    26 November 2011 at 11:36 pm

    I wonder if Key will get such an easy media ride in next 3 years.

  83. M 83
    26 November 2011 at 11:37 pm

    Heaven help NZ 🙁

    Maybe Clayton can get Waimakarere and Sepuloni Waitakare from specials.

    Disappointing result for Peter Foster in Otaki – can’t believe Guy won by 5k – hope the poor deluded fools who voted National don’t have kids about to enter the workforce with the unemployment rate being what it is, nothing like regret to prove you’re alive.

  84. brett Dale 84
    26 November 2011 at 11:43 pm

    65% voter turn out????

    That is pretty freakin low.

  85. jbc 85
    26 November 2011 at 11:43 pm

    Just watched JK speaking about the “good wool of New Zealanders”. Did he just call us sheep?

  86. Blue 86
    26 November 2011 at 11:43 pm

    What a horrible night. The anti-asset sales crew, Labour, Greens, NZ First and Mana have only 56 seats between them. The pro-asset sales crew, National, Act, United Future and the Maori Party, have 65 seats. The assets are goneburger.

    The Epsom poodles did their business and kept Act alive, gasping and wheezing, although Brash is toast.

    Peter Dunne and United Future also made it back, courtesy of the voters of Ohariu.

    Jacinda lost Auckland Central, Paula Bennett is again the shame of West Auckland, and poor Brendan Burns is tied in Christchurch Central.

    And the worst news of the night, it looks like Phil Goff is going to resign. Phil has been the shining light in the darkness of this campaign, and it is just gutwrenching that he might call it a day. Labour needs him, and it’s yet another kick in the guts after a really hard day.

    Can I please wake up tomorrow and have all of this be a really bad dream?

    • ianmac 86.1
      26 November 2011 at 11:55 pm

      I thought Maori Party, Act, and UF were against Asset Sales?

      • Blue 86.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 12:00 am

        Not unless I’ve been hallucinating for the past few months. The Maori Party support them being sold to iwi, Act want to sell more of them than National do, and United Future give limited support to the idea as long as Kiwibank and some others are ruled out.

        • Reality Bytes 86.1.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 12:10 am

          Act is for total asset sales -market knows best- as per their ideology. Pita Sharples was on Telly last night saying they will block asset sales as condition of being a coallition partner.

          Dunne is just another whatever National wants vote, like Banks is.

          So it may all come down to Maori party support to decide if asset sales will happen or not. Or a slim chance that Mr Dunne grows a pair & a change of heart about who he really should be serving.

      • mikesh 86.1.2
        27 November 2011 at 2:11 am

        The Maori party are against asset sales. ACT on the other hand would sell the lot, not just 49%. United Future is against selling certain assets, but not the ones National want to sell.

    • fender 86.2
      26 November 2011 at 11:56 pm

      Phil did do a good job and I don’t think any of the others could have matched his efforts. But some structural changes will need to be made. They could learn from the greens in that area.

    • dazed & confused 86.3
      27 November 2011 at 12:25 am

      The result is nothing that wan’t reliably and consistently predicted in many, many polls blue!

      • lprent 86.3.1
        27 November 2011 at 12:51 am

        You mean those polls showing National at 55% at the start of the week?

        • gingercrush 86.3.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 1:29 am

          I don’t think the polls were too bad. The last lot of polls certainly showed the momentum for National falling (though above 50%), NZ First rising (Morgan Poll was very good on that point) and Labour around 27% or so. Greens a bit overstated but no where near what happened in 2008 or 2005. Might be time to do those tracking polls that are done overseas rather than how polls are presented in this country.

          • lprent 86.3.1.1.1
            27 November 2011 at 6:54 am

            I have less concern about the polls in the days before the election – they are inaccurate but not grossly. No more then 2-3% per party usually.of course in a MMP environment that means that they are of limited use.

            What I am interested in is how effective they are in the weeks and months prior to the election at predicting outcomes. The answer to that has to be that they are essentially useless. Perhaps if they reported ll their results including how many failed contacts they had and their methodology, then we’d get a more accurate assessment about how reliable each poll is.

            • higherstandard 86.3.1.1.1.1
              27 November 2011 at 6:58 am

              Polling should be banned 6 months out from the election it serves no purpose apart from vexation.

  87. trademark 87
    26 November 2011 at 11:52 pm

    Key’s confident on asset sales going forward (confident that he doesn’t need the Maori Party’s support to ram them through), 85-90% NZ ownership of the shares sold apparently. Mums and dads apparently. Brighter future apparently.

  88. Afewknowthetruth 88
    26 November 2011 at 11:59 pm

    I find it both sad and amusing that so many people believe the current economic-political system will endure until 2014 and that there will be an oportunity to corrrect matters then.

    The global economic system is in a terminal nosedive and there’s no stopping it.

    http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EAORD&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    The game is almost over. NZ will get hammered, just as most other nations will.

    Presumably the uninformed, deluded fools who voted for National, Act, UF, etc. won’t know what hit them when the ‘tsunami’ hits in 2012 and Key shows his true [Goldman Sachs] collours.

    And by 2014 what we have been enduring since 2008 will seem like ‘a picnic in the park’.

    • Draco T Bastard 88.1
      27 November 2011 at 12:25 am

      By 2014 NZers may be waking up to the fact that John Key and National are not there for them but their rich foreign owners.

  89. Labour4Life 89
    27 November 2011 at 12:09 am

    I’m sorry but the above comment referring to voters as “uninformed, deluded fools” is a classic example of the kind of support that undermines Labour.

    Quite frankly, the party could do without your support.

    You are obviously very passionate but in the interest of decency, showing your countrymen/women some respect is the least you can do.

    [lprent: perhaps you would have the decency to find out about where you are so we don’t have to watch you exposing yourself as a fool.

    This is a threaded forum. Use the reply button because no one can see who you are trying to talk to.

    You read like just another “concern troll” which get little toleration here because we have seen too many of the useless fools prattling on about stuff they barely understand. For instance this is not a Labour blog, it is a labour movement blog.

    I’d suggest you read the about and policy to amend your behavior. Because otherwise I will ban you for being a fool. ]

    • Lanthanide 89.1
      27 November 2011 at 12:17 am

      Disagree.

      If someone is going to vote against their best interests, then they are uninformed and/or deluded.

      See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Myth_of_the_Rational_Voter

      • jbc 89.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 12:33 am

        That may well be the case – but people still don’t like being called stupid.

        It is precisely because voters are not rational that alienating them (even if based in their best interest) is not a good strategy.

    • jbc 89.2
      27 November 2011 at 12:20 am

      You are absolutely right there. The vast majority of voters aren’t political studies academics, environmental scientists, or mega wealthy investors.

      Any party that wants to lead government needs to appeal to “the 99%”.

    • Reality Bytes 89.3
      27 November 2011 at 12:27 am

      Yeah, it’s good to be gracious and respect people that got out there and contributed to democracy. At the end of the day people voted for what they believed in, even if the party they chose to believe in is not the one that you or I do. They supported their team for their reasons, and we did so for ours, and that should be respected. I doubt almost any people voted for masochistic or negative reasons.

      The funny thing is my Nat-bloc supporting mates almost didn’t seem that happy/reassured that their team had won, if anything they almost seemed a bit: Shit I hope I picked the right ones and they don’t stuff it up now 🙁 And they were also very gracious and respectful about the Green’s gains.

    • McFlock 89.4
      27 November 2011 at 12:32 am

      AFKTT doesn’t seem to be a labour activist.
       
      At best he’s a bit of a dick who loves saying “the end is nigh and there’s nothing you can do about it!”, and is convinced that the net benefit of the end of the world will be that he’s able to say “told you so”.
       
      Although anyone who voted for national because they really thought that key wold bring a brighter future is, basically, a moron. Self interest I can understand, evn aspirational self interest, but genuinely thinking that asset sales will make life better for nz at a population level shows a fundamental lack of analysis ability.
       

  90. Liberal Realist 90
    27 November 2011 at 12:11 am

    The question is now; will the MP and UF capitulate on asset sales for baubles?

    • Draco T Bastard 90.1
      27 November 2011 at 12:42 am

      Yes, they will.

    • seeker 90.2
      27 November 2011 at 2:15 am

      @Liberal Realist

      “The question is now; will the MP and UF capitulate on asset sales for baubles?”

      Maori Party want assets for Tukoroirangi Morgan of Waikato Tainui and Mark Solomon of Ngai Tahu, I think. I also think these are the biggest ‘dads’ of NZ. The MP believe that these tribes will keep them in Nz.,but I don’t think they will if they get a chance to make a profit. However, I hope they will, in fact, use their profits/windfall wisely for all Maori, and not just their tribes.

      Perhaps privatisation is the new way to redress previous’wins in battle.For instance France got England’s water and Germany, I hear, has got her electricity- and some can’t afford to switch on lights etc.My dad, who fought, in World War 2 will be turning in his grave. Hope nat supporters suffer when we lose our electricity to ‘profiteers’ because they will then know what the poor and vulnerable have had to endure under the ‘right’ idiotology.

      I am going to sell my house.(at least I have one to sell,thank God) and buy smaller with many solar panels so I will never have to ‘buy’ electricity again.This is my way of surviving national’s greed, but I am worried to death for the poor and the vulnerable. The Greens say they are going to help the 200,000 children in poverty and I think NZFirst will too. Thus there is still some hope left.

  91. John 91
    27 November 2011 at 12:12 am

    Epsom voters lied, they should be ashamed!!!!!!!!!

    The self interests of the one of the richest suburbs in the world stand in the way of our future!!!.

    John Banks has said that my brothers are wanking to porn, whilst taking drugs, then stealing from whitey so we can watch porn and do drugs. Fuck that racist motherfucker , it’s a sad day for me ,when Rich Epsom whitey will outright vote for a racist (who i thought were illegal). I thought racism was illegal, not in Epsom, not in 2011 Auckland.
    Peace and Love

  92. Bunnykinz 92
    27 November 2011 at 12:19 am

    Epsom. Delivering political corpses into New Zealand government since forever.

    Thanks a lot, Epsom.

    • dazed & confused 92.1
      27 November 2011 at 12:27 am

      Bunnikinz -my pleasure as an Epsom voter to hold my nose and vote for Banks. So many Labour and Greens in the booths voting for Goldsmith did the same I believe. 😉

      • lprent 92.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 12:42 am

        Problem is that NAct was so busy telling people to vote for Banks that the Act party itself barely cleared 1% across the country. I think it almost hit 3% in Epsom – an astonishing achievement 😈

        • IrishBill 92.1.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 12:57 am

          So after all that angst epsom deliver banks and act fails to deliver any more MPs. National would have been better off with goldsmith – at least he would have been a certain nat number. It’s lose/lose. Good.

          • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrel 92.1.1.1.1
            27 November 2011 at 11:53 am

            My God, IB doesn’t understand MMP. National gets the number of MPs determined by its party vote. That would have been the same number whether Goldsmith had won or lost Epsom. So the right has an extra MP by virtue of Banks winning Epsom.

      • Bunnykinz 92.1.2
        27 November 2011 at 1:24 am

        Ouch! That is a pretty big hit to take “for the team”. I don’t think I will go as far as thanking you for it though, sorry.

        I hold no judgement on people who vote tactically, but can never bring myself to do so. At the end of every election I have been in, I never felt regret in the vote I have posted (which is more than I can say for my friends who voted LibDem in the last UK election). I must say, I get really upset when people discuss votes for candidates/parties who didn’t make it “past the post” as a wasted vote. No vote for the person/party I want to see in Government should be considered as wasted. I just refuse to give a nod to second best. But again, I stress, this is no judgment on those who try to play the game.

        And again, “Ouch!”

  93. Nick K 93
    27 November 2011 at 12:20 am

    Go to bed John. You need the sleep.

  94. pollywog 94
    27 November 2011 at 12:21 am

    Living the dream

    Congratulations people, you bought the aspirational middle class dream Key was selling. You didn’t
    want the reality Goff was selling and why would you ?

    The reality is high unemployment, no jobs, stagnant wages, rising cost of living, NZ’s best and brightest leaving NZ in record numbers, an aging population reliant on welfare, an angry youthful
    demographic also reliant on welfare, a property investment boil that needs lancing and a wealth
    disparity chasm that will only widen with asset sales.

    I mean, who in their right mind wants to face that reality ?…and buy into it, let alone deal with it, when you can live the dream of aspirational middle classiness. You too can come from living in a state house to make a fortune then become Prime Minister. Thats the shit people want to buy into and the shit Key was selling.

    And man did we buy it, hook, line and sinker, cos like i said on Dim Post, everyone thinks they’re middle class these days. There is no working class anymore, only the underclass, consisting of the working poor and the unemployed. But no one’s going to admit to being underclass. That’s the fucking nightmare class you read about on the news, committing violent crime, breeding for business and living of charity.

    Sure, you may be jobless and poor or scraping to get by, but your parents weren’t and they were middles class so you are too eh ? You just have to keep believing, have faith that Key can keep your dream alive. I mean, you’re a real life wannabe kiwi mum and dad whose better times are just around the corner.

    But you know the only trouble with living the dream is, sooner or later you wake up and have to face reality, either by your own choice or by neccessity of someone forcing you to. And don’t you just hate it when the realization dawns on you that the dream you thought you were living was only happening in your mind and for all that time you were just asleep.

    sleep tight NZ, don’t let reality bite…Vampires are real !!!

    G’nite

  95. gingercrush 95
    27 November 2011 at 12:26 am

    Hmm can’t be reading above. I imagine there is some delusions though lots of rational stuff as well. I’m a bit stunned. I think every person on TV is wrong. Tonight was a good result for Labour. It may not look good but to win 27 or potentially 28% support is actually very very good. National is at a real risk of falling below 48% and having just 59 seats in parliament meaning John Banks + Peter Dunne is not enough. Essentially the right-wing vote has not moved from 2008 and in my opinion that is a disaster.

    I’m not sure why people are happy with how John Key and National did. Tonight was not a good night.

    • Sookie 95.1
      27 November 2011 at 12:36 am

      Interesting that we agree, it wasn’t a total victory, and they could lose a seat or two on the special votes, which makes passing asset sales a bit dicey.

    • lprent 95.2
      27 November 2011 at 12:50 am

      I will look at the numbers in the morning. But turnout was terrible at around 65%. I think National are down by about a 100k voters. Not a healthy position for a party whose voters usually vote.

      They look like they picking up the same problem that the left has had with voters expressing dissatisfaction by not voting.

      • Bunnykinz 95.2.1
        27 November 2011 at 1:30 am

        Do you not think that the voter lethargy was more a result of the media painting it as a foregone conclusion? I know that is a lot of votes to lose, but from here in the UK, it was really painted all over the place as being “in the bag”. I imagine that there will be as many people on the right kicking themselves for their votes (and for not voting) in the morning as there will be those on the left.

        • gingercrush 95.2.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 1:33 am

          I already know three people didn’t vote. Tomorrow I suspect more will be revealed.I find it disgusting myself.

    • Zola 95.3
      27 November 2011 at 12:50 am

      I agree with you there. National are teetering and the left is getting stronger. Key is going to have a hard time of it over the next three years. The tide has turned against his kind and I for one are prepared to take to the streets against his lot and all they stand for.

  96. mike 96
    27 November 2011 at 12:28 am

    Will someone please tell Phil Goff that he did an amazing job in this campaign. He grew into his role in a huge way, after years of the MSM telling the nation that he couldn’t win at 6pm every other night, and looked the part more so than Key. In 3 years he could be the true leader that we need.

    Don’t resign Phil. I think he is a team player – and that the best thing for the party is for it to take some time to really consider the options. Staying on as leader could very well be the best of them.

    • Reality Bytes 96.1
      27 November 2011 at 3:00 am

      Agreed. He did a very good job. It would be a shame to waste such expereince and talent.

    • KJT 96.2
      27 November 2011 at 7:33 am

      I hope Phil dosn’t resign.

      We will need a good Prime Minister, and someone with courage to lead us when National have done their worst.

      Don’t really see any other contenders that are Phil’s equal in Labour.

  97. fender 97
    27 November 2011 at 12:28 am

    David Parker got 3000 votes in Epsom that should have gone to Goldsmith and would have kept Banks out

    • gingercrush 97.1
      27 November 2011 at 12:34 am

      Yep. Electorates really need to be preferential.

      Talking about electorates. Looks like Labour actually held up very well and could still retain both Christchurch Central and Waimakariri depending on specials. And also gain Waitakere and of course won Te Tai Tonga and West-Coast Tasman. National lost West-Coast Tasman and performed badly in Palmerston North.

      Labour’s billboards need to promote the party vote far better they did.

      • IrishBill 97.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 1:03 am

        For National getting Banks and no more mps is a loss. He’s offering no more numbers than goldsmith would have. Essentially Key has the swallowed the bitter pill that is banksie without any payoff. In fact the banks pact may have cost national a couple of list seats. And act is pretty much over.

        • gingercrush 97.1.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 1:20 am

          But National wouldn’t gain an extra seat had Banks lost. Its not great I’ll give you that and of course it saw NZ First rise. Though maybe NZFirst would have risen regardless of the tape saga. Act needs to be transformed into something. I don’t know or how it can be done. But this election really reflects National’s entire lack of partners.

        • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrel 97.1.1.2
          27 November 2011 at 3:41 pm

          Wrong IB. The right gets one extra.

  98. queenstfarmer 98
    27 November 2011 at 12:31 am

    Random thoughts:
    – poor-to-middling campaigns overall by both Nats & Labour
    – Nat WTF?? handling of teapot tape saga
    – Labour ran a very misleading (at best) attack campaign on key issues
    – Labour kicked National’s butt in advertising smarts
    – Key & Goff both good-but-could-be-better overall in debates
    – Incredible that Nat’s vote not only endured, but prospered, despite most trying conditions in generations
    – Winston – amazing comeback on the back of the teapot tapes and disaffected Labour voters
    – Amazing to see otherwise smart people think Banks wouldn’t win Epsom
    – Act needs to be put out of its misery pronto
    – Best campaign = Greens
    – Surprising amount people chose to waste their votes on Conservatives
    – Excellent concession speech from Goff (compare with Helen’s ungraceful exit in ’08)

    • lprent 98.1
      27 November 2011 at 12:38 am

      The low low turnout is a major problem.

      • gingercrush 98.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 12:49 am

        Expected really wasn’t it? I know I saw it. And I think it hurt the left more but I can’t help but wonder whether National’s vote would be even higher had turnout been better.

      • Draco T Bastard 98.1.2
        27 November 2011 at 12:55 am

        The low turnout is the only reason why NAct won. Labour and the rest of the left need to make that known.

        • gingercrush 98.1.2.1
          27 November 2011 at 1:02 am

          I think the left is certainly more harmed by low turnout. The same factor was in effect in 2008 as well. But National too is hurt by turnout and has been hurt by turnout in the past. 2011 has so many parallels with 2002 really except the other way.

        • Blue 98.1.2.2
          27 November 2011 at 1:05 am

          Not voting at this election is a passive endorsement of National. It means those 35% knew the Nats were going to win and weren’t bothered by it.

          • Nawait 98.1.2.2.1
            27 November 2011 at 1:17 am

            Got a rude surprise last night when I called the electoral office and was told that although I’m enrolled I’m disenfranchised as I have been outside NZ for a little more than 3 years. Guess if you vote with your feet your only option is to continue voting with your feet…

            I wonder how many kiwis overseas would of liked to vote today but couldn’t?

            • SHG 98.1.2.2.1.1
              27 November 2011 at 2:47 am

              If you haven’t set foot in NZ in the three years prior to the election you’re not eligible to vote. Simple as that. Don’t like it? Get on a plane.

              • Nawait …
                27 November 2011 at 4:28 pm

                Yeah, sure mate, forking out thousands of bucks and jumping on a plane upon finding that rule was a viable option, why didn’t I think of that

          • mikesh 98.1.2.2.2
            27 November 2011 at 2:41 am

            Perhaps. But it is also possible that Labour’s natural supporters were unimpressed with the current lot but preferred to stay at home rather than vote for National

            • lprent 98.1.2.2.2.1
              27 November 2011 at 6:23 am

              Looks like National had the same problem – but I think that their missing 100k voters went off and voted for Winston.

      • Anita 98.1.3
        27 November 2011 at 1:13 am

        I thought the turnout wasn’t too bad, just TVNZ are a bunch of muppets and didn’t include the specials in their calculation. So the 65% figure is bogus because it ignores the 220k special votes waiting to be counted.

        • lprent 98.1.3.1
          27 November 2011 at 7:02 am

          Ah. That makes it more acceptable with about 7% (back of the head calc) after the inevitable invalids. Still probably less than 73% of enrolled voters, who are less than 90% of elegible voters.

        • RedLogix 98.1.3.2
          27 November 2011 at 7:34 am

          The turnout for the last thee elections was:

          2002: 76.9%

          2005: 80.9%

          2008: 79.5%

          More or less averaging 78%, although 2002 was pretty low too. Looks like this election is barely going to crack 72%. That’s a huge drop Who were they and why did they stay away? The answer to that question is a big clue to the next election.

          Labour ran an excellent campaign, Goff exceeded all expectations, they had a decently balanced portfolio of policy that most people liked .. and Key looked increasingly worn and seedy as the campaign wore on.

          If rationality had anything to do with it, Labour would have had a landslide last night.

          But emotion trumps logic everytime. That folks is the lesson here.

          • KJT 98.1.3.2.1
            27 November 2011 at 7:42 am

            Labour and the Greens had good policies mostly and a real change from the Neo-Liberal meme that has dragged us down for 35 years.

            Unfortunately policy lost to a smiley faced puppet.

            We should push for real democracy, where we get to vote on policy.

          • Carol 98.1.3.2.2
            27 November 2011 at 7:45 am

            Maybe the missing voters are ones who went overseas?

  99. fender 99
    27 November 2011 at 12:35 am

    Key won Epsom for Banks

    • gingercrush 99.1
      27 November 2011 at 12:38 am

      Disagree. Key may have pointed but I believe Epsom voters chose right till the end to switch to Banks. In the end Banks has to be very thankful to Epsom voters.

  100. Super Guest 100
    27 November 2011 at 12:37 am

    You lefty types aren’t going to hear this much, and you certainly aren’t going to give it out, but, hard luck guys. I genuinely felt you ran a decent campaign, and if Phil Goff had spoken the way he spoke at his concession speech throughout the past three years, who knows what we’d be looking at now. It’s a damn shame you lost some of your better up-and-comers in Nash, Davis, etc. From a righty to a bunch of leftys, clean out the deadwood before 2014. Experience isn’t worth much if talent is absent, and talent IS absent. Mallard, King, Goff, Dyson, Fenton, Cosgrove all have to go, and anyone else from Helen’s mob, because Key’s beaten them twice now and he’ll do it a third time. Push Silent-T down the list and get Shearer in the top spot because he’s the only one I could conceive of voting for right now. Oh, and end this factional nonsense Clark put in there to help her megalomaniac tendencies come to fruition. People don’t care about brown or feminist or gay or unions, they care about policy only and that’s what you guys should start to care about more.

    I’m not going to wish you best of luck for 2014, because I hope you do worse than you did tonight, but at least take my commiserations for tonight.

    • pollywog 100.1
      27 November 2011 at 1:01 am

      +1

      except for the bits i don’t agree with but yeah…I wish John Key all the best for all our sakes too.

    • fender 100.2
      27 November 2011 at 1:13 am

      I think if it came down to policy the result would have been much different
      People who like brand key dont study too hard on policy imo

    • seeker 100.3
      27 November 2011 at 3:26 am

      @ Super Guest

      Pathetic and insincere sugar drivel. You would not know talent even if it jumped up and bit you, judging by the way you voted today.

      At least my irritation with you has finally worn me out enough to sleep now.

  101. fender 101
    27 November 2011 at 12:50 am

    I dont think Banks would have won Epsom without Key telling Epsom to vote Banks for farks sake

  102. pollywog 102
    27 November 2011 at 12:51 am

    No Carmel Sepuloni and no Kelvin Davis…

    Thank fuck we still got Kris Faafoi eh ?

  103. gingercrush 103
    27 November 2011 at 12:58 am

    Hmm Christchurch Central had lower turnout than Christchurch East. I don’t know how to explain and I don’t think I know my electorate very well as I thought Burns was going to way better. I imagine what happened in Christchurch was the result of the earthquake but I did feel after 2008 that it was the place in New Zealand with a lot of potential to change to a more National area. And 2011 might have just done that. It’ll be interesting to see the polling places for sure. Also where the hell did Jim Anderton Progressives vote go.

  104. Anita 104
    27 November 2011 at 1:04 am

    If anyone’s interested I’ve posted the Sainte-Laguë table here: http://www.kiwipolitico.com/2011/11/115-125-whos-at-risk/

    National is most at risk of losing a set on specials, they hold seats 120, 118 and 117.

  105. John 105
    27 November 2011 at 1:05 am

    The Act party are government again. I wish I had millions of dollars, I could BUY MY WAY into parlaiment. Epsom , tonight you made history as the

  106. John 106
    27 November 2011 at 1:11 am

    The Act party are government again. I wish I had millions of dollars, I could BUY MY WAY into Parliament.

    Epsom , tonight you made history as the WORST AUCKLAND SUBURB EVER, you are a disgrace to our city. You, the richest suburb, blocking the poor, the poor around here who are dealing with YOUR recession and are struggling to eat. Epsom, someone needs to make you transparent, you wealthy scared people.

    • bob 106.1
      27 November 2011 at 9:11 am

      wow – bitter much.

      They are entiltled to vote – just as you are. Who makes you God to decided if their vote os good or not.

  107. Nick K 107
    27 November 2011 at 1:28 am

    Go to bed John, you’ve had too much to drink.

  108. ak 108
    27 November 2011 at 1:29 am

    Yawn, yawn.

    Three sickening years of media saturation delivers poll domination, delivers votes.

    Delivers pus: as in “our first priority is welfare reform”.

    Watching Pita? Awake Pita? Get sucked in again and not even death will save you.

  109. John 109
    27 November 2011 at 1:32 am

    Booze is expensive. Go to Bed Nick, you need to grow.

  110. Rain33 110
    27 November 2011 at 1:32 am

    One thing I will take from tonight, is Chris Trotter’s scathing review of the treatment of Phil Goff……. not however from John Key, but from some within his own party. And indirectly Trotter made it quite clear who those people were.

    I personally was never sure about Phil Goff before the campaign, I knew he was a nice guy, but was not convinced of his leadership ability. He has gone way up in my estimation and far exceeded my expectations. This in the end brought my vote back from the Greens to Labour. However, I am vexed to learn that Phil Goff, while seeking the support of the nation and the thousands of Labour supporters around the country, may well have been distracted with the knives that were penetrating his back.

    If it comes to pass that Chris Trotters less than subtle innuendo’s were correct, then it is not the Labour leader that should feel disheartened tonight, some within Labour should know they are walking a fine line. I for one will not forget if it turns out that Phil Goff was virtually walking the sacrificial plank, blindfolded by some within his own party.

    Congratulations Phil Goff, you ran an honest and solid campaign, exceeding the expectations of many. I can only hope you got the support you deserved from certain members of your party. If it turns out you did not…my memory is long.

    • fender 110.1
      27 November 2011 at 1:39 am

      Yeah Phil did great. Imagine him and Jacinda as co-leaders. Better option than the 3 Dave ones being forwarded, and Shanes not the 1

      • Rain33 110.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 1:47 am

        There is a side to one of the ‘daves’ that I really don’t like, and could be extremely problematic if he was to become leader.

  111. gingercrush 111
    27 November 2011 at 1:35 am

    Meh. I found Chris Trotter to be terribly sulky and frankly pathetic tonight (well yesterday).

    Honestly though, he’s a good commentator but a bloody frustrating one as well. I’ve always enjoyed his analysis. But he has the ability to be entirely right on some things and utterly wrong on other things.

    • Rain33 111.1
      27 November 2011 at 1:41 am

      Trotter is not alone in suggesting that Goff had less than what should be expected in support from within his own party. It began leaking around the time of Carters departure.

  112. John 112
    27 November 2011 at 1:37 am

    poverty 2011 = another 3 years of poor flogging. fuck off cunt unless you are really struggling, fuck off.

  113. Peter Marshall 113
    27 November 2011 at 2:03 am

    Was at Sky City tonight, it was a great night.
    Go John key.

  114. seeker 114
    27 November 2011 at 2:56 am

    What on earth is wrong with you Peter Marshall? No true Kiwi ,or in fact human, would be celebrating the appalling future NZ is now facing. Do try and wise up before it is too late.Your idol worship appears to have gone too far.

    • sdm 114.1
      27 November 2011 at 7:48 am

      And thats why the left lost. You insult your opponents, you say that they arent ‘true kiwis or humans’. That attitude keeps your team out of power

      • Colonial Viper 114.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 9:54 am

        You’re economic traitors and traitors to the sovereignty of NZ. What do you want us to call you?

        • sdm 114.1.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 11:50 am

          If you want to descend to such levels….you are a child abuser for wanting to saddle our kids with debt.

          Pathetic huh? But keep up the name calling, voters loved being insulted.

          Asshole

          • KJT 114.1.1.1.1
            27 November 2011 at 12:32 pm

            You mean the 38 billion and counting plus the extra 2 billion a year Nationals asset sales will cost us.

            Yeah. national voters prove that the intelligent people have already gone overseas in the last three years.

  115. tsmithfield 115
    27 November 2011 at 6:38 am

    I don’t think Goff could really be faulted. His performance exceeded expections. I very much doubt anyone else in Labour could have done a better job. So, I hope not too much of the blood letting is focussed on Goff.

    I think Labour needs to look more at the strategies they employed. Firstly, focussing on stopping asset sales gave oxygen to Peters who was pushing a similar message. Thus, Peters hovered up a lot of soft Labour support. Secondly, focussing on attacking National failed again, as it did in the last campaign. There simply wasn’t enough aspirational reasons to vote Labour. Thirdly, some of their more radical policies (CGT, raising the retirement age etc) effectively served to balance out public apprehension of asset sales. In other words, I think the public felt just as worried about Labour’s more radical plans as they did about National’s asset sales plans. Fourthly, Labour’s billboard advertising was very much electorate focussed rather than party vote focussed. I wonder if this had an effect on reducing the party vote for Labour.

    I thought National ran a very safe, bland campaign. They won’t be able to do the same next time. I thought the advertising from the other parties was much better and targeted.

    Next time National might need to look at having a “cup of tea” with the Conservative party, who did fairly well for first time around.

    • mikesh 115.1
      27 November 2011 at 8:12 am

      Labour seems to have made the prevention of asset sales the centre of its campaign without really understanding the issues surrounding fixed assets, getting embroiled in arguments about whether the dividends that the government would lose were more than the extra interest they would pay. The main point about government owned assets, however, is that they don’t actually have to make a profit, or pay a dividend. Power companies, for example, could supply electricity at cost, to the benefit of businesses and households. In fact any profit they make is essentially just another tax, and a non-progressive tax at that.

      • Colonial Viper 115.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 9:53 am

        A lot of voters and potential voters are OK enough to let our assets be sold to give National a virtually free hand.

        Those who voted Labour, Greens, NZ First didn’t of course. But not enough. Bye bye power assets.

        Bet you the NATs sell more than 49% because of ‘market conditions’.

        • M 115.1.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 12:03 pm

          Yeah, can’t understand how so many opposed asset sales and yet voted for National and am constantly amazed they can’t see through this phoney.

          It’s mean but for the many that are likely to lose their jobs because of the GFC and National’s policies I will find it hard to restrain myself from asking “Who did you vote for again?”

          The same applies to some people, mostly women on the DPB who have voted for Key sucking up his lies. I know two women in this position who have retrained because of Labour’s TIA and are on the cusp of looking for work who rail against those on the same benefit they regard as inferior to themselves because as in one person’s words “My taxes will go to support those bludgers” conveniently forgetting they are not yet out of that camp. Saying to them that the lack of jobs is a huge obstacle and that if they grew up in less than ideal circumstances, say in a gang family or have a criminal record because of some petty crime committed in their youth that they are effectively screwed. These points cut no ice with these people who are so convinced they’re on the winners’ home straight, but what if it doesn’t pan out?

          I think I heard on the TV last night that welfare “reform” is one of the first items on the agenda with National – how quickly will the suckers who voted for Key twice bitterly regret their choice.

  116. Carol 116
    27 November 2011 at 7:51 am

    Graeme Edgeler has a provisional estimate of the final result after specials are counted, based on 2008 results. He puts National down to 59 seats and Greens up 1 to 14. However, there’s also still a one electorate seat that is too close to call.

    http://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/election-11-the-special-votes/

    But if National ends up with 59 seats. They have a 1 seat majority without the Maori Party.

    Edgeler has also calculated last night’s results into an election with no threshold.

    http://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/election-11-counter-factual-1/

    It gives National 57 seats, Labour 33,
    no change to the other elected parties, but Legalise Cannabis would have 1 seat, Conservatives 3

    • mikesh 116.1
      27 November 2011 at 8:26 am

      Interesting no threshold analysis. However without a threshold the percentages would probably have been different – eg ACT, and probably Labour, would have had larger percentages with National and NZ 1st having less. Also, very small parties like Social Credit may have scored a seat.

  117. Pete George 117
    27 November 2011 at 7:59 am

    The state of the leaders at this interim stage of post election.

    Key – still popular and still leader
    Goff – good campaign but hasn’t been an effective leader
    Brash’s last act.

    And more…

    • kriswgtn 117.1
      27 November 2011 at 9:04 am

      and you didnt get in so yup yup

    • KJT 117.2
      27 November 2011 at 10:40 am

      Goff.

      Showed he would be a good leader. Courage and stick ability. Just what we need instead of show ponies.

      Proved all of us, including me, who were dubious about him, wrong.

      Hope he stays around. And gets rid of some of the old deadwood around him,He has the qualities we will need after National have finished fucking us.

      Now have the same sick feeling I had when Muldoon got back in, AND later when Labour went ACT.

  118. gingercrush 118
    27 November 2011 at 8:57 am

    Can we have a post-election thread or something?

    Polling Places details are out. Christchurch Central seems to be the great divide. You really couldn’t have a much sharper difference in opinion. Papanui, Merivale and Saint Albans went for Wagner. Linwood, Avonside, Phillipstown, Richmond and Shirley went for Burns.

    In Waimakariri. Kaiapoi went big for Cosgrove and Cosgrove did surpisingly well in Rangiora as well. He also took Redwood. Wilkinson took the rural spots, Northwood (its rather Stepford Wife territory).

    Rangiora looks like it was split.

    • gingercrush 118.1
      27 November 2011 at 9:04 am

      Auckland Central looks like Grey Lynn, Newton for Ardern. Ponsonby and Herne Bay for Kaye with elsewhere pretty even.

    • lprent 118.2
      27 November 2011 at 10:42 am

      I will do one when i get out of bed and have breakfast. Been a hard month or two. First code release (with the bloody RWC disrupting sleep) immediately followed by an election.

  119. Inventory2 119
    27 November 2011 at 8:58 am

    Hooray! The election is over, and my ban expires.

    I just want to commend Phil Goff on an outstanding speech last night. It was passionate, yet very gracious, and if that is his last public act as leader, he goes out on a high note. It’s just a shame that more of that passion wasn’t seen during the campaign, and that more of that passion wasn’t seen by some in the caucus.

    • kriswgtn 119.1
      27 November 2011 at 9:09 am

      totally agree and pity the media are still stuk up lickinh keys ass

      Theyre still doing it on TV this morning
      Garner aint far off the size of a cow

      I watched Goff On wannaben on friday night
      he was so funny re the lamington on that clowns head

    • lprent 119.2
      27 November 2011 at 10:40 am

      Yep… Don’t tell me you’re glad to be here?

  120. Tombstone 120
    27 November 2011 at 9:02 am

    I think the country has made a serious mistake and I think it will implode over the coming months as people get pushed closer to breaking point by the way of social policies that will not address the issues but will instead simply ensure that those who have done well in the game of life have been appeased. Bunch of fucking self serving c*@ts! Dark days ahead under Key – for many I fear that is about the gist of it. Poor poor bastards. 170,000 jobs – you’ve got a lot of fucking work to do Key! Swine!

  121. Tangled up in blue 121
    27 November 2011 at 9:18 am

    I wonder if the Maori Party will continue to work with National.

    It seems to have seen them drop their party vote from 2.3 to 1.4. And they’ve lost an electorate seat to Labour.

  122. bob 122
    27 November 2011 at 9:21 am

    Rapt with the result – would have been happier if NZFirst go nowhere.

    Nats can push thru what they want and can make the changes needed to make NZ a better place for me and my kids.

    Accountability for the bludging benes (not the ones that actually need it), and playing down debt – not making more and more.

    Its a great day to wake up with another 3 years of a stable, sane, National lead government.

    • RedLogix 122.1
      27 November 2011 at 9:30 am

      Nats can push thru what they want and can make the changes needed to make NZ a better place for me and my kids.

      Things tend to go on pretty much as they start. You’ve had three years of this govt and so far we’ve been going arse-backwards on every measure, except perhaps for the sheer quantity of mendacious excuses and vacous, aspirational, promises from John Key.

      But maybe I missed something; maybe you know something we don’t… so what was it again that Key has promised to make NZ a better place to live? Specifically like?

      • burt 122.1.1
        27 November 2011 at 9:41 am

        The last 3 years started going ass-backwards…. the economy was going ass-backward when Labour passed it to National.

        • Colonial Viper 122.1.1.1
          27 November 2011 at 9:50 am

          You ain’t seen anything yet. 2nd term NAT govts are where this country typically loses it and a lot of people suffer.

          • burt 122.1.1.1.1
            27 November 2011 at 9:54 am

            CV… weren’t you claiming that we would have a centre left govt today ?

            People suffered under your beloved socialist failure govt CV – just it was the same people who voted for the govt which is why the self serving Labour party didn’t even break 30%.

        • KJT 122.1.1.2
          27 November 2011 at 10:46 am

          Still rewriting history, Burt?

    • Carol 122.2
      27 November 2011 at 9:33 am

      Nats can push thru what they want and can make the changes needed to make NZ a better place for me and my kids.

      A pity that the few who think only of themselves and there’s will benefit, while the majority of bennies and working poor who want to earn a decent living from a good day’s work will suffer.

      The REAL bludging bennies – the greedy corporates, bankers and finance speculators – will also be given a free rein and not be made to be accountable….. and with privatisation, ripping off much more of the tax-payer money than a small minority of bennies living on a pitance.

    • primdim 122.3
      27 November 2011 at 9:37 am

      Bob just stay on kiwiblog or wherever tory trolls live.

    • KJT 122.4
      27 November 2011 at 10:45 am

      Paying down debt. Can’t you count??

      38 billion plus of debt already and nothing to show for it.

      3 more years of voodoo economics.

      You are delusional if you think National will do anything to help NZ.

      Key is only in to steal from us.

      What an idiot!

  123. William Joyce 123
    27 November 2011 at 10:32 am

    Change of tune last night from Key.
    In his victory speech he talked about three more years of a National led government.
     
    I thought we were supposed to vote for a John Key led government. Who are these National people? I haven’t seen them in the election.

  124. PC Brigadier 124
    27 November 2011 at 10:38 am

    In regard to the low turnout, I see partial apathy and partial acceptance that Nats were going to win. I live in an older electorate and I sense (absolutely no evidence other than a few polls which confirm in my mind) that we are seeing a demographic divide also. 60+ voters resist progressive change…they abhor tinkering with the pension, and the suggestion that their capital gain could be taxed. They cling to this to the deteriment of the change that I think is required. As this baby boomer demographic grows, I see the can kicked further down the proverbial road. I also see a demographic divide as Pakeha abandon Labour – either through apathy, disillusionment, or in some cases for alternatives like the Greens. Certainly what compounds these trends is the migration overseas of young NZers. I feel quite alone today, and wonder if Australia should have been where we took our two toddlers. But we are staying, and now rely on this changing electorate.

    • Carol 124.1
      27 November 2011 at 11:14 am

      I and plenty of the 60+ people I know would never vote National of for a right wing party, and would welcome progressive change. But I don’t know what proportion we are of our whole age cohort.

  125. Maui 125
    27 November 2011 at 10:56 am

    Good point. He may be hinting at a personal exit strategy.

    Who would replace him ?

  126. Mark 126
    27 November 2011 at 12:24 pm

    Labour is very much a party for city-dwellers. How can they resonate more with the provinces? I live in Kaitaia and my Labour vote for my electroate MP was wasted. There are actually some of us here in the provinces who would like Labour to reach toward us (the “holiday highway” sledge was understandable but did not do too much to shoring up Northlanders’ support). Kelvin Davis is a top bloke and I actually think he would destroy Sabin in 2014 if he leaves TTT and stands for Northland.

  127. John 127
    27 November 2011 at 8:26 pm

    politics new zealand style is uglier every election. i refuse to see john key as a leader, he’s a poster boy for the financial security of the financially oversecured, the poor need money, we are losing kids to an underclass of confusion and poverty, we are laying the foundations for slums to keep middle class n.z living the dreams that their magazines say they are entitled too, and if kids starve , that’s n.z.

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