Fiddling while the world burns
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7:58 am, March 5th, 2009 - 79 comments
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The latest New Scientist brings together the work of thousands of scientists to describe what would happen to the world if the global temperature rises by 4 degrees, which is the mid-range for the projected increases due to climate change.
Many of you will simply continue to reject the notion of climate change and its consequences as you must because it poses a fatal challenge to the viability of free-market ideology. Our Prime Minister is with you, just this week he was still casting doubt on whether climate change is real. But, I’m sorry, this is happening, we are doing it, and the consequences within our lifetimes will be terrible beyond words… unless we act with the necessary speed and on the necessary scale, which we show no signs of doing.
The world heated 4 degrees is a vision of hell. The Amazon will burn. The Sahara will spread into southern Europe and down south of the Congo. Deserts will also spread through the Americas and Asia. The glaciers that feed the great rivers of Asia will be gone. The tropics will be largely uninhabitable.
The human population may fall below 1 billion, confined to overcrowded, often infertile lands near the poles. New Zealand will be one of the few countries still in relatively good shape climatically but I’m sure you can imagine the ramifications of being one of the few desirable pieces of real estate in a collapsing, desperate world.
I’m going to reproduce New Scientist‘s lead article in full below. I recommend you read it.
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ALLIGATORS basking off the English coast; a vast Brazilian desert; the mythical lost cities of Saigon, New Orleans, Venice and Mumbai; and 90 per cent of humanity vanished. Welcome to the world warmed by 4 °C.
Clearly this is a vision of the future that no one wants, but it might happen. Fearing that the best efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions may fail, or that planetary climate feedback mechanisms will accelerate warming, some scientists and economists are considering not only what this world of the future might be like, but how it could sustain a growing human population. They argue that surviving in the kinds of numbers that exist today, or even more, will be possible, but only if we use our uniquely human ingenuity to cooperate as a species to radically reorganise our world.
The good news is that the survival of humankind itself is not at stake: the species could continue if only a couple of hundred individuals remained. But maintaining the current global population of nearly 7 billion, or more, is going to require serious planning.
Four degrees may not sound like much – after all, it is less than a typical temperature change between night and day. It might sound quite pleasant, like moving to Florida from Boston, say, or retiring from the UK to southern Spain. An average warming of the entire globe by 4 °C is a very different matter, however, and would render the planet unrecognisable from anything humans have ever experienced. Indeed, human activity has and will have such a great impact that some have proposed describing the time from the 18th century onward as a new geological era, marked by human activity. “It can be considered the Anthropocene,” says Nobel prizewinning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzenof the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany.
A 4 °C rise could easily occur. The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose conclusions are generally accepted as conservative, predicted a rise of anywhere between 2 °C and 6.4 °C this century. And in August 2008, Bob Watson, former chair of the IPCC, warned that the world should work on mitigation and adaptation strategies to “prepare for 4 °C of warming”.
A key factor in how well we deal with a warmer world is how much time we have to adapt. When, and if, we get this hot depends not only on how much greenhouse gas we pump into the atmosphere and how quickly, but how sensitive the world’s climate is to these gases. It also depends whether “tipping points” are reached, in which climate feedback mechanisms rapidly speed warming. According to models, we could cook the planet by 4 °C by 2100. Some scientists fear that we may get there as soon as 2050.
If this happens, the ramifications for life on Earth are so terrifying that many scientists contacted for this article preferred not to contemplate them, saying only that we should concentrate on reducing emissions to a level where such a rise is known only in nightmares.
“Climatologists tend to fall into two camps: there are the cautious ones who say we need to cut emissions and won’t even think about high global temperatures; and there are the ones who tell us to run for the hills because we’re all doomed,” says Peter Cox, who studies the dynamics of climate systems at the University of Exeter, UK. “I prefer a middle ground. We have to accept that changes are inevitable and start to adapt now.”
Bearing in mind that a generation alive today might experience the scary side of these climate predictions, let us head bravely into this hotter world and consider whether and how we could survive it with most of our population intact. What might this future hold?
The last time the world experienced temperature rises of this magnitude was 55 million years ago, after the so-called Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum event. Then, the culprits were clathrates – large areas of frozen, chemically caged methane – which were released from the deep ocean in explosive belches that filled the atmosphere with around 5 gigatonnes of carbon. The already warm planet rocketed by 5 or 6 °C, tropical forests sprang up in ice-free polar regions, and the oceans turned so acidic from dissolved carbon dioxide that there was a vast die-off of sea life. Sea levels rose to 100 metres higher than today’s and desert stretched from southern Africa into Europe.
While the exact changes would depend on how quickly the temperature rose and how much polar ice melted, we can expect similar scenarios to unfold this time around. The first problem would be that many of the places where people live and grow food would no longer be suitable for either. Rising sea levels – from thermal expansion of the oceans, melting glaciers and storm surges – would drown today’s coastal regions in up to 2 metres of water initially, and possibly much more if the Greenland ice sheet and parts of Antarctica were to melt. “It’s hard to see west Antarctica’s ice sheets surviving the century, meaning a sea-level rise of at least 1 or 2 metres,” says climatologist James Hansen, who heads NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. “CO2 concentrations of 550 parts per million [compared with about 385 ppm now] would be disastrous,” he adds, “certainly leading to an ice-free planet, with sea level about 80 metres higher… and the trip getting there would be horrendous.”
Half of the world’s surface lies in the tropics, between 30° and -30° latitude, and these areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, for example, will feel the force of a shorter but fiercer Asian monsoon, which will probably cause even more devastating floods than the area suffers now. Yet because the land will be hotter, this water will evaporate faster, leaving drought across Asia. Bangladesh stands to lose a third of its land area – including its main bread basket.
The African monsoon, although less well understood, is expected to become more intense, possibly leading to a greening of the semi-arid Sahel region, which stretches across the continent south of the Sahara desert. Other models, however, predict a worsening of drought all over Africa. A lack of fresh water will be felt elsewhere in the world, too, with warmer temperatures reducing soil moisture across China, the south-west US, Central America, most of South America and Australia. All of the world’s major deserts are predicted to expand, with the Sahara reaching right into central Europe.
Glacial retreat will dry Europe’s rivers from the Danube to the Rhine, with similar effects in mountainous regions including the Peruvian Andes, and the Himalayan and Karakoram ranges, which as result will no longer supply water to Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, Bhutan, India and Vietnam.
Along with the exhaustion of aquifers, all this will lead to two latitudinal dry beltswhere human habitation will be impossible, say Syukuro Manabe of Tokyo University, Japan, and his colleagues. One will stretch across Central America, southern Europe and north Africa, south Asia and Japan; while the other will cover Madagascar, southern Africa, the Pacific Islands, and most of Australia and Chile (Climatic Change, vol 64, p 59).
The high life
The only places we will be guaranteed enough water will be in the high latitudes. “Everything in that region will be growing like mad. That’s where all the life will be,” says former NASA scientist James Lovelock, who developed the “Gaia” theory, which describes the Earth as a self-regulating entity. “The rest of the world will be largely desert with a few oases.”
So if only a fraction of the planet will be habitable, how will our vast population survive? Some, like Lovelock, are less than optimistic. “Humans are in a pretty difficult position and I don’t think they are clever enough to handle what’s ahead. I think they’ll survive as a species all right, but the cull during this century is going to be huge,” he says. “The number remaining at the end of the century will probably be a billion or less.”
John Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany is more hopeful. The 4 °C warmer world would be a huge challenge, he says, but one we could rise to. “Would we be able to live within our resources, in this world? I think it could work with a new division of land and production.”
In order to survive, humans may need to do something radical: rethink our society not along geopolitical lines but in terms of resource distribution. “We are locked into a mindset that each country has to be self-sustaining in food, water and energy,” Cox says. “We need to look at the world afresh and see it in terms of where the resources are, and then plan the population, food and energy production around that. If aliens came to Earth they’d think it was crazy that some of the driest parts of the world, such as Pakistan and Egypt, grow some of the thirstiest crops for export, like rice.”
Taking politics out of the equation may seem unrealistic: conflict over resources will likely increase significantly as the climate changes, and political leaders are not going to give up their power just like that. Nevertheless, overcoming political hurdles may be our only chance. “It’s too late for us,” says President Anote Tong of Kiribati, a submerging island state in Micronesia, which has a programme of gradual migration to Australia and New Zealand. “We need to do something drastic to remove national boundaries.”
Cox agrees: “If it turns out that the only thing preventing our survival was national barriers then we would need to address this – our survival is too important,” he says.
Imagine, for the purposes of this thought experiment, that we have 9 billion people to save – 2 billion more than live on the planet today. A wholescale relocation of the world’s population according to the geography of resources means abandoning huge tracts of the globe and moving people to where the water is. Most climate models agree that the far north and south of the planet will see an increase in precipitation. In the northern hemisphere this includes Canada, Siberia, Scandinavia and newly ice-free parts of Greenland; in the southern hemisphere, Patagonia, Tasmania and the far north of Australia, New Zealand and perhaps newly ice-free parts of the western Antarctic coast.
If we allow 20 square metres of space per person – more than double the minimum habitable space allowed per person under English planning regulations – 9 billion people would need 180,000 square kilometres of land to live on. The area of Canada alone is 9.1 million square kilometres and, combined with all the other high-latitude areas, such as Alaska, Britain, Russia and Scandinavia, there should be plenty of room for everyone, even with the effects of sea-level rise.
These precious lands with access to water would be valuable food-growing areas, as well as the last oases for many species, so people would be need to be housed in compact, high-rise cities. Living this closely together will bring problems of its own. Disease could easily spread through the crowded population so early warning systems will be needed to monitor any outbreaks.
It may also get very hot. Cities can produce 2 °C of additional localised warming because of energy use and things like poor reflectivity of buildings and lower rates of evaporation from concrete surfaces, says Mark McCarthy, an urban climate modeller at the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre. “The roofs could be painted a light, reflective colour and planted with vegetation,” McCarthy suggests.
Since water will be scarce, food production will need to be far more efficient. Hot growing seasons will be more common, meaning that livestock will become increasinglystressed, and crop growing seasons will shorten, according to David Battisti of the University of Washington in Seattle and his colleagues (Science, vol 323, p 240). We will need heat and drought-tolerant crop varieties, they suggest. Rice may have to give way to less thirsty staples such as potatoes.
Vegetarian dystopia
This will probably be a mostly vegetarian world: the warming, acidic seas will be largely devoid of fish, thanks to a crash in plankton that use calcium carbonate to build shells. Molluscs, also unable to grow their carbonate shells, will become extinct. Poultry may be viable on the edges of farmland but there will simply be no room to graze cattle. Livestock may be restricted to hardy animals such as goats, which can survive on desert scrub. One consequence of the lack of cattle will be a need for alternative fertilisers – processed human waste is a possibility. Synthetic meats and other foods could meet some of the demand. Cultivation of algal mats, and crops grown on floating platforms and in marshland could also contribute.
Supplying energy to our cities will also require some adventurous thinking. Much of it could be covered by a giant solar belt, a vast array of solar collectors that would run across north Africa, the Middle East and the southern US. Last December, David Wheeler and Kevin Ummel of the Center for Global Development in Washington DC calculated that a 110,000-square-kilometre area of solar panels across Jordan, Libya and Morocco would be “sufficient to meet 50 to 70 per cent of worldwide electricity production, or about three times [today’s] power consumption in Europe”. High-voltage direct current transmission lines could relay this power to the cities, or it could be stored and transported in hydrogen – after using solar energy to split water in fuel cells.
If the comparatively modest level of solar installation that Wheeler and Ummel propose were to begin in 2010, the total power delivery by 2020 could be 55 terawatt hours per year – enough to meet the household electricity demand of 35 million people. This is clearly not enough to provide power for our future 9 billion, but improving efficiency would reduce energy consumption. And a global solar belt would be far larger than the one Wheeler and Ummel visualise.
Nuclear, wind and hydropower could supplement output, with additional power from geothermal and offshore wind sources. Each high-rise community housing block could also have its own combined heat and power generator, running on sustainable sources, to supply most household energy.
If we use land, energy, food and water efficiently, our population has a chance of surviving – provided we have the time and willingness to adapt. “I’m optimistic that we can reduce catastrophic loss of life and reduce the most severe impacts,” says Peter Falloon, a climate impacts specialist at the Hadley Centre. “I think there’s enough knowledge now, and if it’s used sensibly we could adapt to the climate change that we’re already committed to for the next 30 or 40 years.”
This really would be survival, though, in a world that few would choose to live. Large chunks of Earth’s biodiversity would vanish because species won’t be able to adapt quickly enough to higher temperatures, lack of water, loss of ecosystems, or because starving humans had eaten them. “You can forget lions and tigers: if it moves we’ll have eaten it,” says Lovelock. “People will be desperate.”
Still, if we should find ourselves in such a state you can bet we’d be working our hardest to get that green and pleasant world back, and to prevent matters getting even worse. This would involve trying to limit the effects climate feedback mechanisms and restoring natural carbon sequestration by reinstating tropical forest. “Our survival would very much depend on how well we were able to draw down CO2to 280 parts per million,” Schellnhuber says. Many scientists think replanting the forests would be impossible above a certain temperature, but it may be possible to reforest areas known as “land-atmosphere hotspots”, where even small numbers of trees can change the local climate enough to increase rainfall and allow forests to grow.
Ascension Island, a remote outpost buffeted by trade winds in the mid-Atlantic, may be a blueprint for this type of bioengineering. Until people arrived in the 17th century, vegetation was limited to just 25 scrubby species. But plantings by British servicemen posted there produced a verdant cloud forest. “It shows that if you have rainfall, forest can grow within a century,” says ecologist David Wilkinsonof Liverpool John Moores University in the UK, who studied the phenomenon.
Even so, the most terrifying prospect of a world warmed by 4 °C is that it may be impossible to return to anything resembling today’s varied and abundant Earth. Worse still, most models agree that once there is a 4 °C rise, the juggernaut of warming will be unstoppable, and humanity’s fate more uncertain than ever.
“I would like to be optimistic that we’ll survive, but I’ve got no good reason to be,” says Crutzen. “In order to be safe, we would have to reduce our carbon emissions by 70 per cent by 2015. We are currently putting in 3 per cent more each year.”
Explore an interactive map of the world warmed by 4 °C
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What an amazing species we are, to have to power to change the world so drastically so quickly by accident, to have the wisdom to see the changes coming, but to not have the courage to do anything about it.
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Three Waters became a focus of anti-Government protests under Labour, but its dumping by the new Government hasn’t solved councils’ funding problems and will eventually hit the back pockets of everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 8:06 am today are:The Government ...5 days ago - Small accomplishments and large ironies
5 days ago - The Song of Saqua: Volume VII
In order to catch up to the actual progress of the D&D campaign, I present you with another couple of sessions. These were actually held back to back, on a Monday and Tuesday evening. Session XV Alas, Goatslayer had another lycanthropic transformation… though this time, he ran off into the ...6 days ago - Accelerating the Growth Rate?
There is a constant theme from the economic commentariat that New Zealand needs to lift its economic growth rate, coupled with policies which they are certain will attain that objective. Their prescriptions are usually characterised by two features. First, they tend to be in their advocate’s self-interest. Second, they are ...6 days ago - The only thing we have to fear is tenants themselves
1. Which of these acronyms describes the experience of travelling on a Cook Strait ferry?a. ROROb. FOMOc. RAROd. FMLAramoana, first boat ever boarded by More Than A Feilding, four weeks after the Wahine disaster2. What is the acronym for the experience of watching the government risking a $200 million break ...6 days ago - Peters talks of NZ “renewing its connections with the world” – but who knew we had been discon...Buzz from the Beehive The thrust of the country’s foreign affairs policy and its relationship with the United States have been addressed in four statements from the Beehive over the past 24 hours. Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters somewhat curiously spoke of New Zealand “renewing its connections with a world ...6 days ago
- Muldoonism, solar farms, and legitimacyNewsHub had an article yesterday about progress on Aotearoa's largest solar farm, at "The Point" in the Mackenzie Country. 420MW, right next to a grid connection and transmission infrastructure, and next to dams - meaning it can work in tandem with them to maximise water storage. Its exactly the sort ...6 days ago
- NZTA does not know how much it spends on conesBarrie Saunders writes – Astonishing as it may seem NZTA does not know either how much it spends on road cones as part of its Temporary Traffic Management system, or even how many companies it uses to supply and manage the cones. See my Official Information Act request ...6 days ago
- If this is Back on Track – let's not.
I used to want to plant bombs at the Last Night of the PromsBut now you'll find me with the baby, in the bathroom,With that big shell, listening for the sound of the sea,The baby and meI stayed in bed, alone, uncertainThen I met you, you drew the curtainThe sun ...6 days ago - Welfare: Just two timid targets from the National governmentLindsay Mitchell writes – The National Government has announced just two targets for the Ministry of Social Development. They are: – to reduce the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support by 50,000 to 140,000 by June 2029, and – (alongside HUD) to reduce the number of households in emergency ...6 days ago
- The Hoon around the week to April 12Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale, along with regular guests Robert Patman on Gaza and AUKUS II, Merja Myllylahti on AUT’s trust in news report, Awhi’s Holly Bennett on a watered-down voluntary code for lobbyists, plus special guest Patrick Gower ...6 days ago
- A Dead Internet?Hi,Four years ago I wrote about a train engineer who derailed his train near the port in Los Angeles.He was attempting to slam thousands of tonnes of screaming metal into a docked Navy hospital ship, because he thought it was involved in some shady government conspiracy theory. He thought it ...6 days ago
- Weekly Roundup 12-April-2024Welcome back to another Friday. Here’s some articles that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Wednesday Matt looked at the latest with the Airport to Botany project. On Thursday Matt covered the revelation that Auckland Transport have to subsidise towing illegally parked cars. ...6 days ago
- Weekly Roundup 12-April-2024Welcome back to another Friday. Here’s some articles that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Wednesday Matt looked at the latest with the Airport to Botany project. On Thursday Matt covered the revelation that Auckland Transport have to subsidise towing illegally parked cars. ...6 days ago
- Antarctic heat spike shocks climate scientistsA ‘Regime Shift’ could raise sea levels sooner than anticipated. Has a tipping point been triggered in the Antarctic? Photo: Juan Barreto/Getty Images TL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above that was recorded yesterday afternoon between and ...6 days ago
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #15 2024Open access notables Global carbon emissions in 2023, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Annual global CO2 emissions dropped markedly in 2020 owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, decreasing by 5.8% relative to 2019 (ref. 1). There were hopes that green economic stimulus packages during the COVD crisis might mark the beginning ...7 days ago
- Everything will be just fine
In our earlier days of national self-loathing, we made a special place for the attitude derided as she’ll be right.You don't hear many people younger than age Boomer using that particular expression these days. But that doesn’t mean there are not younger people in possession of such an attitude.The likes of ...7 days ago - Farmers and landlords are given news intended to lift their confidence – but the media must muse o...Buzz from the Beehive People working in the beleaguered media industry have cause to yearn for a minister as busy as Todd McClay and his associates have been in recent days. But if they check out the Beehive website for a list of Melissa Lee’s announcements, pronouncements, speeches and what-have-you ...7 days ago
- National’s war on rentersWhen the National government came into office, it complained of a "war on landlords". It's response? Start a war on renters instead: The changes include re-introducing 90-day "no cause" terminations for periodic tenancies, meaning landlords can end a periodic tenancy without giving any reason. [...] Landlords will now only ...1 week ago
- DrawnA ballot for two Member's Bills was held today, and the following bills were drawn: Repeal of Good Friday and Easter Sunday as Restricted Trading Days (Shop Trading and Sale of Alcohol) Amendment Bill (Cameron Luxton) Consumer Guarantees (Right to Repair) Amendment Bill (Marama Davidson) The ...1 week ago
- At last some scienceEle Ludemann writes – Is getting rid of plastic really good for the environment? Substituting plastics with alternative materials is likely to result in increased GHG emissions, according to research from the University of Sheffield. The study by Dr. Fanran Meng from Sheffield’s Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, ...1 week ago
- Something important: the curious death of the School Strike 4 Climate MovementThe Christchurch Mosque Massacres, Covid-19, deep political disillusionment, and the jealous cruelty of the intersectionists: all had a part to play in causing School Strike 4 Climate’s bright bubble of hope and passion to burst. But, while it floated above us, it was something that mattered. Something Important. ...1 week ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect them
News that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...1 day ago - Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...1 day ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...2 days ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fire
The Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...2 days ago - Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...3 days ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...3 days ago
- Greens look to fast-track submissions on harmful lawThe Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...6 days ago
- Release: Govt should stop making people’s lives harder and build more homesThe National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...7 days ago
- Release: Melissa Lee missing in action on mediaThe action Melissa Lee promised to protect democracy and the media sector is missing, Media and Communications spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...1 week ago
- Landlord Government leaves little hope for rentersThe Government’s announcement on tenancy rules prove that it does not care about renters. ...1 week ago
- Opportunity to build a more sustainable economyGreen Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...1 week ago
- Significant step forward in fixing cruel and unjust pastA significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...1 week ago
- Missed opportunity but NZ will surely one day recognise the right to a sustainable environmentNew Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...1 week ago
- Release: Don’t cut our lunches – clear message sent to GovernmentTens of thousands of people are demanding the Government commits to fully funding free and healthy school lunches. ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt makes U-turn on Suicide Prevention OfficeLabour welcomes the Government’s U-turn on the closure of the Suicide Prevention Office, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...1 week ago
- CCC issues warning over further climate delayToday’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...1 week ago
- Luxon targets lame and lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...1 week ago
- Luxon targets are lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...1 week ago
- Release: Commitment to disability communities missing from Govt prioritiesMinister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...1 week ago
- Methane target review is dangerous duplicationThe Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government must commit to school building project for disabled studentsThe Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: National must take mental health seriouslyMental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...2 weeks ago
- Referendums for Māori wards a racist step backwardsThe Government's imposed referendum on Māori wards is a racist step backwards for Māori representation, and disregards Te Tiriti o Waitangi. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Job losses at Health not worth it for tax cutsNew Zealand will feel the harm of the National Government’s reckless cuts to jobs at the health ministry for generations, says Ayesha Verrall. ...2 weeks ago
- Press release: No Māori initiatives in Government’s nothing planMāori are yet to see anything from this Government except cuts, reversals and taking our people backwards, Māori Development spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Social housing off Government’s to-do listThe Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Less money in most people’s pockets this AprilChanges to minimum wage and benefit indexation means many New Zealanders will get less this year, as the Government gives a big tax break to landlords instead. ...3 weeks ago
- Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...2 hours ago - Government backing mussel spat projectThe Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...2 hours ago
- Government focused on getting people into workBenefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...5 hours ago
- Clean energy key driver to reducing emissionsThe Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...6 hours ago
- Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forwardThe Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...10 hours ago
- Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic PartnershipPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...22 hours ago
- Government consults on extending coastal permits for portsRMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...1 day ago
- Inflation coming down, but more work to doToday’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...1 day ago
- School attendance restored as a priority in health adviceRefreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...1 day ago
- Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sectorOceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...1 day ago
- Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International CongressAssociate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...2 days ago
- Removing red tape to help early learners thriveThe Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...2 days ago
- RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tapeChanges to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...2 days ago
- McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationshipTrade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...3 days ago
- Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister LeePrime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...3 days ago
- PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ tiesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...3 days ago
- Antarctica New Zealand Board appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...3 days ago
- Finance Minister travels to Washington DCFinance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...3 days ago
- Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlordsThe coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...3 days ago
- Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being consideredState Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...3 days ago
- New Zealand condemns Iranian strikesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...4 days ago
- Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plansHundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...6 days ago
- Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand ChairHealth Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...6 days ago
- Roads of National Significance planning underwayThe NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...6 days ago
- Navigating an unstable global environmentNew Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...6 days ago
- NZ welcomes Australian Governor-GeneralPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...6 days ago
- Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for WinterAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...6 days ago
- NZ and the US: an ever closer partnershipNew Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...6 days ago
- Joint US and NZ declarationApril 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...6 days ago
- NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperationForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research. “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...6 days ago
- Government redress for Te Korowai o WainuiāruaThe Government is continuing the bipartisan effort to restore its relationship with iwi as the Te Korowai o Wainuiārua Claims Settlement Bill passed its first reading in Parliament today, says Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith. “Historical grievances of Te Korowai o Wainuiārua relate to 19th century warfare, land purchased or taken ...7 days ago
- Focus on outstanding minerals permit applicationsNew Zealand Petroleum and Minerals is working to resolve almost 150 outstanding minerals permit applications by the end of the financial year, enabling valuable mining activity and signalling to the sector that New Zealand is open for business, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “While there are no set timeframes for ...1 week ago
- Applications open for NZ-Ireland Research CallThe New Zealand and Irish governments have today announced that applications for the 2024 New Zealand-Ireland Joint Research Call on Agriculture and Climate Change are now open. This is the third research call in the three-year Joint Research Initiative pilot launched in 2022 by the Ministry for Primary Industries and Ireland’s ...1 week ago
- Tenancy rules changes to improve rental marketThe coalition Government has today announced changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to encourage landlords back to the rental property market, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The previous Government waged a war on landlords. Many landlords told us this caused them to exit the rental market altogether. It caused worse ...1 week ago
- Boosting NZ’s trade and agricultural relationship with ChinaTrade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay will visit China next week, to strengthen relationships, support Kiwi exporters and promote New Zealand businesses on the world stage. “China is one of New Zealand’s most significant trade and economic relationships and remains an important destination for New Zealand’s products, accounting for nearly 22 per cent of our good and ...1 week ago
- Freshwater farm plan systems to be improvedThe coalition Government intends to improve freshwater farm plans so that they are more cost-effective and practical for farmers, Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay have announced. “A fit-for-purpose freshwater farm plan system will enable farmers and growers to find the right solutions for their farm ...1 week ago
- New Fast Track Projects advisory group namedThe coalition Government has today announced the expert advisory group who will provide independent recommendations to Ministers on projects to be included in the Fast Track Approvals Bill, say RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones. “Our Fast Track Approval process will make it easier and ...1 week ago
- Pacific and Gaza focus of UN talksForeign Minister Winston Peters says his official talks with the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York today focused on a shared commitment to partnering with the Pacific Islands region and a common concern about the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. “Small states in the Pacific rely on collective ...1 week ago
- Government honours Taranaki Maunga dealThe Government is honouring commitments made to Taranaki iwi with the Te Pire Whakatupua mō Te Kāhui Tupua/Taranaki Maunga Collective Redress Bill passing its first reading Parliament today, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “This Bill addresses the commitment the Crown made to the eight iwi of Taranaki to negotiate ...1 week ago
- Enhanced partnership to reduce agricultural emissionsThe Government and four further companies are together committing an additional $18 million towards AgriZeroNZ to boost New Zealand’s efforts to reduce agricultural emissions. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says the strength of the New Zealand economy relies on us getting effective and affordable emission reduction solutions for New Zealand. “The ...1 week ago
- Australia’s new defence strategy is big on ideas, but lacks one key ingredient: well-trained soldi...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University There have been a lot of defence announcements recently about buying new equipment, building up Australia’s manufacturing capabilities, creating local jobs, new legislation to support AUKUS and even a new defence chief. In ...1 hour ago - What does Steve Smith’s Stateside signing mean for cricket in the US – and Australia?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney Steve Smith, one of this generation’s finest batters, has conquered much of the cricketing world during his career, and he now has set his sights on a new frontier: the United ...1 hour ago
- Minister Concedes Contractors Will Be Hired To Do Work Of Axed Ministry Of Education Staff
The PSA can’t believe that the Minister of Education is happy for her ministry to hire contractors at the same time it is dismissing 565 workers. ...1 hour ago - Attempt to bar diplomat from Myanmar military junta fails
Myanmar community members applied to the courts to bar the diplomat from attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. ...2 hours ago - LGNZ Welcomes Govt Earthquake-prone Buildings DecisionLGNZ has advocated for this decision as part of a remit led by Manawatū District Council. ...2 hours ago
- AUKUS Pillar 2 a 'fragrant, methane-wrapped bull***' – Bob CarrThe former Australian Foreign Minister has continued to warn New Zealand against joining the defence pact. ...2 hours ago
- Enforceable undertaking issued to abc accounting services limited after continued non-compliance.The Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) has accepted an enforceable undertaking agreement from ABC Accounting Services Limited (ABC) under section 81 of the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act 2009 (AML/CFT Act). ...3 hours ago
- REVEALED: RNZ’s Hypocrisy Over Fair Digital News Bargaining BillThe Taxpayers’ Union can reveal that Radio New Zealand (RNZ) spent $71,842.53 on Facebook advertising over the past 12 months, despite earlier this year coming out in support of the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill , which would force the likes ...3 hours ago
- Police rejected 'very good offer' – Mark MitchellPolice Minister Mark Mitchell says the pay offer rejected by police was the best the government could put forward under difficult financial circumstances. ...3 hours ago
- How can we have truth-telling without the Voice? Our research shows a way forwardSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Heidi Norman, Professor, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, Convenor: Indigenous Land & Justice Research Group, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock The Uluru Statement from the Heart set out the aspirations of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples for “Voice, Treaty, Truth”, in ...3 hours ago
- NZ education scores must improve – but another polarising ideological pivot isn’t the answerSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bronwyn E Wood, Associate Professor in Education, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images You don’t need to look hard right now to see concerns about Aotearoa New Zealand’s education system. Declining performance in international testing has been ...3 hours ago
- An updated tally of the public sector job cuts
The coalition government has made it well known it expects departments to cut roles. We break down the numbers as they currently stand. Updated: 12pm, April 18 Before last year’s election, both National and Act made it clear that the public service was squarely in their crosshairs. Both parties, now ...3 hours ago - Confessions of an unlikely petrolheadCheckered Flag director Natalie Wilson on her lifelong love of motorsport, and the allure of Pukekohe Park Raceway. One childhood summer when my world revolved around winning stuff off the radio, I bagged tickets to Western Springs Speedway and then to Waikaraka Park in what was a dream season for ...3 hours ago
- 'Ambitious' trade pledge headlines Luxon's Thailand stopThe Prime has announced a commitment to triple two-way trade with Thailand by 2045, but it only requires maintaining current growth. ...4 hours ago
- ‘The right person’: What did Solomon Islanders vote for?By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor in Honiara After a relatively well organised and peaceful day of voting in Solomon Islands yesterday, the electoral commission is working with donor partners to safely transport ballot boxes from polling stations all over the country to centrally located counting venues. It is a ...4 hours ago
- What it’s like to be made redundant by the Ministry of EducationI was one of hundreds of people who lost my government job this week. Here’s exactly how it played out. It is a Friday. I’m in the middle of an online Teams hui working out the finer details of a series of workshops we’ll be presenting next week. It’s a ...5 hours ago
- What are ‘Ozempic babies’? Can the drug really increase your chance of pregnancy?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karin Hammarberg, Senior Research Fellow, Global and Women’s Health, School of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, Monash University Joshua Rodriguez/Unsplash Hundreds of thousands of people worldwide are taking drugs like Ozempic to lose weight. But what do we actually know about ...6 hours ago
- Why the kookaburra’s iconic laugh is at risk of being silencedSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diana Kuchinke, Lecturer in Ecology, Federation University Australia Linda Robertus/Shutterstock Once, while teaching a class of environmental science students in China’s Hebei University of Science and Technology, I asked who knew what a laughing kookaburra was. There were many blank faces. ...6 hours ago
- Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Breen, Professor of Law, University of Waikato smolaw11/Getty Images School truancy has been a concern across the political spectrum for years. But proposed solutions have largely failed to address the core reasons for unexplained school absences. Despite the apparent ...6 hours ago
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Bloody luddite communist dope smoking hippie Greenies
Freakin beardie weidies wanna take my WHEELS!!!!
Waaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!
these comments need to be deleted, is there no automatic transfer to kiwiblog?
God it’s a cesspit over at kiwiblog, just read the comments for anything about Obama, it’s like entering the twilight zone.
4 degrees = a version of hell
Seems to me that 4 degrees would actually make New Zealand a very agreeable place to live.
Sorry but ‘bullshit’, ‘over the top’ and ‘scare mongering’ are the only words that come to mind reading your post.
I’m not a climate change denier, I just don’t buy into any of these doomsday predictions and I actually think they are counter-productive as it turns people off from the debate as to what we should be doing.
[I didn’t write the New Scientist article, take it up with the scientists. SP]
Agree with ieuan. This alarmist approach puts most people off. Like a blue faced preacher warning of the approaching rapture. Dig a bit deeper & you should find the author of this piece is pushing a similar barrow.
[I didn’t write the New Scientist article, take it up with the scientists. SP]
“Seems to me that 4 degrees would actually make New Zealand a very agreeable place to live.”
Yeah – who cares if the entire east-coast becomes drought-afflicted for half the year …
“I just don’t buy into any of these doomsday predictions”
Well – do you have reasoning to back that up, or are you just going to clog up this blog with unsupported opinion?
Make a worth-while contribution or bugger-off.
ieuan
“4 degrees = a version of hell
Seems to me that 4 degrees would actually make New Zealand a very agreeable place to live.”
Yes…. and I’m sure a few very powerful military powers will think so too. Enjoy your sunny holiday in New China, mate.
“This alarmist approach puts most people off”
Just how do you tell people that they we are collectively screwing the planet without being alarmist?
What a cop out. Those people need to get over their fingers in ears reaction.
They should try getting those fingers out of their ears and doing something, no matter how small, or at least try keeping their trap’s shut and stop being counterproductive. Especially as they are, in general, about as informed as a garden snail.
So if the world wants to live in New Zealand because of global warming, it will be a good time to buy property then?
More like a good time to invest in a navy and hope we can deal with the sudden immigration explosion.
Yep, when push comes to shove we won’t be welcoming those refugees with open arms but sinking them before they get here. We won’t have any choice.
tongue in cheek there, brett.. consider enzed lan area approximates UK. They have 66mn people and fairly maxed out.. World population is…? Yeah, even the formerly livable world population that finally gets here would exceed that. Then there’s less, much less room for farming and food production,m so.. sorry buddie your argument is tapped out..
But o’course you can always pull yo tongue back out and talk sense..
Brett – you’re assuming that our version of property rights would still apply …
Japan’s boffins: Global warming isn’t man-made
Climate science is ‘ancient astrology’, claims report
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/02/25/jstor_climate_report_translation/
Thnx. That site is awesome, in a ‘fortean times’ kind of way.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/science/rotm/
Science headlines
High-speed train toilet attempts to eat Frenchman
Barcelona boffin births swarming microrobots
Fire-breathing black cabs: Shock eyewitness photo
And my fav:
Brain-plug weapons could provide war crime immunity
Lawyer spots future brainhat-slaughter atrocity loophole
R N: ‘Well – do you have reasoning to back that up, or are you just going to clog up this blog with unsupported opinion?’
Let me see:
(i) We have normal temperature variation in NZ of about 30 degrees min to max temperature so hard to see how 4 degrees = a version of hell
(ii) There have been times in human existence when the average temperature was hotter than it is now and colder than it is now and guess what – we are still here!
(iii) Even if the world did heat up by 4 degrees and this had an enormous effect on the human population not every change would be bad.
(iv) What can we actually do about it? Seems that enormous effects would be required to make even a small change in the predicted climate change, that does not mean we should do nothing but it does mean we should only do the things that make sense.
Like I said in my comment I don’t disagree with climate change and this being caused by human activities, I just don’t buy into the doomsday scenarios.
This is a magazine article that is designed to do one thing and that is sell magazines. Newspaper readership goes up in times of crises, basically it boils down to – there is no money in good news.
Now roger nome would you like to add something worth-while? Or are you just here to abuse me.
I see someone doesn’t understand trends. So say we currently vary from -15 of our average to +15. After a four degree temperature rise we’ll vary from -11 to +19 of our current average. You’re just trying to confuse people here.
Nobody is arguing that the human race will die. We’re arguing that the world will be a very uncomfortable place to live, with only New Zealand, Canada, and Russia able to produce food on the scale we currently do. (oh, and maybe some parts of northern Europe and Greenland)
Indeed not, as pointed out above, some regions- like ours- will come out ahead. But that’s not a good thing when both of the world’s biggest superpowers are likely to turn into deserts, and potentially have the power to invade all the nice areas- only one of which has any significant military power.
The cost of acting to prevent climate change could be as small overall as the amount we spent bailing out banks, and it would definitely seem worthwhile compared to living in the world that we’re predicting we’ll have if we don’t act.
It’s not easy, but it’s definitely possible and it’s the right thing to do.
Yeah, you may not have noticed, but the article is talking about the entire Earth, not just NZ.
But anyway, how is NZ going to get by if such a doomsday scenario were to come to pass? Just say “I’m alright Jack” while the rest of the planet goes to hell in a handbasket? Good luck with that.
Yeah, it may have escaped your notice but the article made the point that the human species will survive. I’m not sure what your point is there … would you not care if billions of people die so long as the species survives? That’s harsh, man, really harsh.
Yes every cloud has a silver lining and it’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good.. A change is as good as a rest.
And let me just add: “don’t count your chickens before they hatch!”, and also “birds of a feather flock together”.
Finally, the beef! We can ditch fossil fuels and switch to renewables. That’s it! That is literally all we have to do! Sure … it’s a big task, but it “makes sense” particularly if you consider the alternative, doesn’t it?
I agree that we have to switch to renewables but my understanding is that we can only slow projected climate change and not reverse it.
My point about every change not being bad is that certain parts of the planet that would become more hospitable like, say parts of Russia, the upside is always left out of alarmist doomsday scenerios like this.
As for the effect on the human population, this article is written like these things will happen overnight, the projected 4 degrees is over 100 years, which means that we will have time to adapt, humans are very resourceful.
ieuan: You are both correct and incorrect about places like Siberia, Alaska, and Canada.
Yes the climate change will make it warmer. That is not the good thing that you anticipate
Very large areas are flattish peat permafrost. The likely outcome is that they will become pretty good bogs and swamps as happens now in areas that defrost in summer. This is already having a substantial effect on the existing populations (there was a good BBC radio journo on National radio last week talking about the current effects). Most transport is done by rivers or in the freeze. As the latter gets shorter they’re starting to have to look at abandoning the areas too far from the rivers because they can’t supply them.
As permafrost peats defrost and resume putrefaction, they will then release large amounts of interesting greenhouse gases. This is one of the substantial risk areas because there is a hell of a lot of carbon locked up in those bogs. There are strong issues about the level of cascade that we likely to see as some areas get warmer.
Besides, you have to remember that the IPCC does conservative projections – ie what the vast majority in the IPCC advisory panel is willing to sign off on. From what I know of the issues (with a BSc in earth sciences 30 years ago and continued reading since), I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-4 degree C average warming in the next 30 years. But we’ll probably get a pretty good idea now that the climate down cycle is largely over.
i) The difference in average temperature between what is perceived as a “hot summer” and an “average summer” has been shown to be less than a degree.
A change in an average temperature always means that some places will show a much larger increase, while some a lot less. NZ is surrounded by a big, cold ocean so our temperatures will increase at a slower rate than the global average but at the other end of the scale some will increase at a much faster rate.
ii) This is why we discard outliers when looking at trends.
iii) It’s not just the temperature that affects us, ieuan. By warming the planet, we will end up with increased sea levels and increased sea temperatures. Also, by damaging Antarctica we interrupt the climate systems that have been moving hot and cool air around for millions of years.
Extreme weather events will become more extreme, powerful and common. 1-in-10-year droughts and floods could become annual before the next century doing untold damage to our agriculture-driven economy and the ability to provide for ourselves.
iv) You could be right. Our climate is driven by feedbacks to our input. Some are what’s called “positive feedbacks” and will feed off themselves even if we stop emitting immediately. If we emitted no more CO2 or warming agents, the globe would continue to warm for a number of years.
New Scientist is a respected source, it’s not a peer-reviewed journal though so you’re right to be skeptical.
I suggest you read the book Hot Topic, by Gareth Renowden. It’s a very good read with the main topics behind climate change and what’s in store for NZ. Here’s his site: http://hot-topic.co.nz/
hey ieuan, where’s the money in four degrees celsius higher..?
Yeah Steve, get with the program! Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil. Just put these blinkers on, cover your ears with your hands and sing loudly “LA LA LA”. That’s what we really need to stimulate debate.
Is there Climate Change?
Is it man made?
Can we do anything about it?
We can argue as much as you like but it certainly is the opportunity for the Perfect Tax. collected by preying on the public’s guilt and without having to spend it on anything in particular.
In 1959 as part of the International Geophysical Year, I gave a very modest seminar about Global warming and the possible effects of an average 2 degree rise in temp with special focus on sea levels. My point is that nearly 50 years ago (help) the concerns were being examined and sadly still denied.
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
The sky is falling the sky is falling. you bet.. like smnoking as someone here said recently, the slowest most expensive suicide possible..
Time to quit.. the disgusting habit/s
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
Burt, would you prefer medical care from the 1970’s or medical care from today? Do you use computing technology from the 1970s or computing technology from today? You’re a cyclist Burt, how would you compare bicycles from the 1970s with bicycles from today?
The point being – we get better at stuff (some of it anyway), in some cases much much much better, and our understanding of climate change now is much better than it was. Plus, just because some experts were wrong 40 years ago does not mean that almost all the experts are wrong today…
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
I did. It’s about journalists, not scientists, so it’s of no use in determining whether we should be concerned about AGW, and the methodolgy section lacks detail on how their sample of stories was chosen.
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
Burt, you seem to have the idea that in the 70s there was a scientific consensus that the globe was cooling (because there was a media beat-up about it at the time). But this is actually not true. Sorry to burst your bubble.
Didn’t you read your own link burt? Or did you just not understand it?
It isn’t talking about what we ‘ultimately know ‘ at all. It’s about media coverage of climate issues.
Ianmac. It’s incredible, isn’t it?
Look, in the 148,500 odd years of my life I have seen a few civilisations come and go. The current one’s pretty average compared to some so don’t fret – the next one may be better for human kind.
There was a TV item recently about concerns that the Tuataru might be threatened due to global warming. Apparently sperm production in these critters decreases as temperature goes up. The DOC scientist was expressing her concerns, but then added at the end that the Tuatara has survived warm periods in the past and so somehow has found a way. Same with Polar Bears et al. me thinks.
We had the chance to limit human population back in the 1960s when we were warned that over population was bad. We didn’t and now we get to pay the price for our stupidity of maintaining massive population growth.
I have no qualms about the loss of a few billion people. I do have qualms about the loss of species. ^Shrug^. Life will go on and I can only hope that we will learn that we need to exist within the ecological limits.
I’m one of the people who think that 4 degrees is inevitable and we need to rapidly and drastically reduce our ecological footprint to prevent a 6 degree rise in average global temperatures.
Burt: Even if Global warming was a myth would you rather improve air quality, deal with water pollution, solve energy problems or just do as you say and deny that we have a problem and carry on as we are?
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
Huh? Haven’t they in fact moved to a consensus on global warming ?
I don’t think that the weight of knowledge moved away from my belifs of the 50’s. I think that there has been an explosion of knowledge that confirms, and that some people want to ignore it like the parent who ignored the child complaining of molestation.
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
So Burt. You favour ignoring the bad news because it might be wrong??
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
No Burt it’s you have no credibility.
You stated that the weight of the scientific community moved against global warming, but this is, in fact, a myth.
You were probably misled by paying too much attention to “scare” stories in the mass media. You should try reading the scientific literature if you want to know what the scientific community thinks.
Actually, the weight of the scientific community remained firmly tilted towards global warming during the 70s, and became stronger as time went on.
now yo see, burt, all these folks encouraging you quit the habit..
if yo don’t.. let me put it another way.. you’ll look like the cue tip aimed at the eight ball that just dropped out of sight unaided..
burt. Go read the new scientist article, then read new scientist’s climate change myths piece, and don’t come back until there’s something going on inseide that head of yours.
I mean it burt, you’re wrecking a very important thread you’re banned until till you can give us a cogent discussion of the science around climate change.
[deleted]
What a pathertic insecure little boy you are. Debate the changing state of climate change theroies or learn nothing from history – your choice tempa-tantrum-boy.
[lprent: Banned for 2 months – deleting graffitti]
I could direct you to any number of articles pointing out the stupidity of your doomsday cult but you’d be as keen to read them as I am to read that new scientist bullshit.
I see New Zealand is up for the wrong side of half a billion dollars because of the Kyoto Protocol(although National wants those figures checked).
Can anyone explain exactly how burning up all that money saves the planet?
Can anyone explain exactly how burning up all that(NZ) money saves the planet?
More to the point is you explain how not spending the money saves New Zealand..
Burt – as other people have pointed out, all you’ve proved is that there was a media bet-up about a possible up-coming ice-age. You need to provide some proof that the majority of the scientific community was in agreement with this.
So far all you’ve done is clog up this thread with nonsense and cry to steve about being banned. How old are you again?
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
Global warming will be armageddon just like Y2K – facetious I know, but I believe we should always ask if behind the actual science and good intentions there are groups who have an agenda that’s more to do with filling their own pockets than saving the planet.
HS – don’t be another Burt. Supply an ACTUAL argument please!
Obviously we don’t know how much money the researchers at private energy companies get paid, but do you think it is more, or less, than the people at NIWA?
If ‘less’,
and ‘AGW = Y2K’,
then NIWA style researchers are selling out their intellectual integrity for less money than they could get for telling the truth.
And the overwhelming majority of their international colleagues are taking the same deal.
Show us how clever you are hs.
Discuss.
quite right, HS, scepticism can be most healthy and constructive, whence it admits its limits.. (as with science and scientists)..
As to the Y2K issue I am less convinced that it was a cogent and relevant argument. At the time the truth appeared to be that no one knew whether ‘legacy code’ would cater to a millenial time change. Or not.
Including the then government computer wizz Minister-duly responsible for expending some $360+ mn on the supposed problem. By name Mr. Williamson, of National. Still there! But then in the glow of overall ignorance there can be no reason to honestly suggest he shouldn’t be. Because of it.
But Burt – where’s the proof? A few scientists don’t constitute a global majority (as exists today). Your argument is weak and nonsensical.
Anyway, you’re banned until you come back with a rational, fact-supported argument, remember?
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
Burt: Over 3000 scientists support the Intelligent Design. Therefore it must be right. Right?
However over 3,000,000 scientists support Evolution and the Natural Selection position.
For you the original 3,000 must be right. Right?
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[lprent: deleted for writing after banned]
Hey burt,
Con has provided you with a couple of useful links but seeing as you can’t click on them (at least I assume that’s the case as you haven’t mentioned them) I’ll fill you in.
They relate to a study of the scientific articles on climate change published between 1965 and 1979. The results are:
“Between 1965 and 1979 we found (see table 1 for details):
* 7 articles predicting cooling
* 44 predicting warming
* 20 that were neutral
In other words, during the 1970s, when some would have you believe scientists were predicting a coming ice age, they were doing no such thing. The dominant view, even then, was that increasing levels of greenhouse gases were likely to dominate any changes we might see in climate on human time scales.”
burt, you weren’t banned for disagreeing with anything.
You were banned for deliberately derailing the thread. And now you’re arguing that scientific consensus is meaningless because no-one can be absolutely sure that there aren’t fairies at the bottom of the garden
Can someone ban this fuckwit properly?
[lprent: Did. I’ll keep a view on IP ranges as well]
[deleted]
[lprent: Added to auto-moderation. If you can’t control yourself, then I’ll just have to help…]
You can argue that you didn’t derail the thread but why are you trying to argue that that wasn’t the reason for your banning?
And you still haven’t bothered to read anything that’s been presented to you.
What do you think about the article that Con linked to twice and I quoted?
In case anyone hadn’t noticed, burt has been acting like a idiot. And has now been totally banned for it. In deference to his past contributions, I’m unwilling to ban him completely.
I suspect I probably killed messages prior to the time of the actual ban – but what the hell – it isn’t like he said anything that he hasn’t said a thousand times before.
However insulting my writers as a straight personal attack is a no-no…
I particularly don’t like the use of psuedo-science.
Pascals bookie said it correctly. When I did my earth science degree from 1978-1980, there were two contending trains of thought on future climate change amongst the academic community who looked at the subject. Most looked at the greenhouse gas effect as the likely outcome. A few thought an ice-age. The former dug around for evidence. The latter dug around for headlines because they couldn’t find any evidence outside of northern Europe and the north-east USA.
30 years later, we now have the data that was lacking in the early 1980’s, and we still get old fools like burt bringing up discarded headlines.
So perhaps you can explain. Exactly what is this money spent on and how does that save New Zealand?
Forests in Khazakstan?
Climate change eh? Reminds me of the horrors that engulfed the world when the y2k bug hit. Or the killer bees. Or the dreaded bird flu. Or when chicken little warned us that the sky was falling down. Oh yeah, that was a terrible day. ITS A SCAM.
[ Alex also beleives that he can never die because it hasn’t happened yet. Climate change myth debunked – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462 }
Can you remember why the y2k bug didn’t hit?
I’ll give you a hint: it involves a dedicated effort from governments and companies all over the world to co-operate by utilising the best relevant technical and scientific information available to address the problem to ensure it didn’t happen.
Oops I just gave you the answer, didn’t I?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/590932.stm
Similarly the bird flu outbreak was headed off by mass public health campaigns, including the wholesale slaughter of literally millions of poultry in China and other Asian countries.
Alex, you slacker, you missed a couple of hackneyed “Chicken Little” “the sky is falling” scares, Remember the dreaded Acid Rain scare? And the Ozone Hole? Can’t you whip up a bit of cynicism about those other atmospheric pollution scares, too? I’ve seen other AGW denialists play that card, and I’m disappointed you didn’t drag it out.
The interesting (and encouraging!) thing about those atmospheric pollution crises is that ultimately they were headed off by concerted international efforts, before their effects were too disastrous. At considerable expense, mind you. Who now misses CFCs? Surely the AGW denialists who so treasure their incandescent bulbs could muster up just a little nostalgic affection for those old CFC-powered spray cans?
Ah yes the old ‘Y2K didn’t happen nitwitery’. Felix’s answer is the brief version, and pretty much on the money. Here is a slightly longer version for future reference.
Computers generally only actually care about calendar time when they are dealing with money. This is because money is not only a store of value, it also has velocity. The primary tool for accounting the velocity of money is time, or more precisely, calendar days. All accounting systems use calendar time, all deposits, interests due, transfers, credits and debits are ALL dated. For this reason EVERY money transaction must record as a minimum, both the amount AND the date.
Early computer systems were a bit limited in memory, so it became common practise to save on memory by only using the last two digits of the calendar year, which of course created the now legendary ‘Y2K Crisis’. And a crisis it was, well for the banks, insurance companies, … any large commercial entity that used computers on a large scale to manage money. It got a lot of attention, and lots of resource was thrown at it to ensure that come the dreaded date, all the bugs had been ironed out.
But along the way, a technically illiterate media somehow got the idea that ALL computer systems must have this Y2K bug, and well what if the big computers that ran the power systems, the water, the phones, trains and so-on… what if they crashed too? What kind of huge disaster would that be? The answer of course was always… not at all likely.
Because in fact systems like power and water, are run not by ordinary computers as most people are familiar with, but by specialised real-time hardware usually called PLC’s (Programmable Logic Controllers) or DCS’s (Distributed Control Systems). There were two main reasons why these systems were almost completely immune to the Y2k issue.
1. Most real-time applications, ironically enough, are not the slightest bit interested in the calendar date/time. They handle state logic or physical variables like temperature, flow or pressure, which are rarely if ever related to calendar time. What is of interest is elapsed time (time intervals) almost always much less than a year long. So the year value hadly ever used.
2. And even if it was used most real-time control system (by the 90’s) used proper 4 digits for their year value anyhow.
Of course us real-time control system engineers always KNEW that the Y2K bug was totally irrelevant to our systems (although that didn’t stop a few from charging fees for mostly useless “Y2K Audits” )… yet because we are so much the poor cousins of our much more glamorous and better paid IT relations… no-one from the media ever bothered to ask us the truth.
And because I was on call – and I didn’t drink at all that night, honest.
felix. No felix, if something doesn’t happen, then it never would have happened whether or not you took measures to prevent it. It’s like how they don’t let me drive drunk, yet I’ve never once totalled my car.
I know it’s Godwin’s but stuff it – does Alex (and all the others) remind anyone of Chamberlain?
“There will be a stable climate in our time”…
Yes it does. And it reminds me that people will believe anthing – literally anything at all – if it fits with what they believe to be in their own interests.
This is how people can become convinced that they are inhabited by the spirits of ancient aliens who were kidnapped millions of years ago and trapped under a volcano by another alien called Xenu. Ludicrous, but once you’ve invested enough in it, it becomes obvious.
Similarly, people will try to cast doubt on anthropogenic global warming by pointing out that people have been wrong about other things before, or by pointing out that sometimes it still gets cold, or that the globe has been hotter in the far distant past, or that there was a hot spell in the 30s, or a cold spell a thousand years ago …
None of those “arguments” make any sense at all, but they don’t have to make sense … they just have to reassure people that actually everything is ok; they don’t have to do anything, and it’s not their fault the world is going to hell in a handbasket.