Go Annette!

53 comments on “Go Annette! ”

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1. marty mars 1

   4 April 2014 at 9:46 am

   Yes all power to her and wouldn’t it be great to see John Minto in parliament – imagine him as speaker one day – oh how sweet it would be.
   • Rosie 1.1

     4 April 2014 at 12:19 pm

     Yeesssss! +1 marty mars
2. weka 2

   4 April 2014 at 10:37 am

   Waiariki 2011 election results http://www.parliament.nz/mi-nz/mpp/electorates/data/DBHOH_Lib_EP_Waiariki_Data_3/waiariki-electoral-profile#_71

   Interesting that Hone is hassling Labour when it’s Flavell/Mp that looks like more of an issue. Is that the split vote thing?
   • karol 2.1

     4 April 2014 at 10:53 am

     Labour aims to contest it strongly. They won the party vote in the electorate. New Labour candidate.

     Rawiri Waititi, 33, from Cape Runaway in the Eastern Bay of Plenty, will contest the Waiariki electorate.

     Mr Waititi, who is of Te Arawa, Te Whanau Apanui, Whakatohea, Tuhoe, Ngati Awa, Tuwharetoa and Ngati Porou descent, won the nomination over Katie Paul and Ryan Te Wara.

     Mr Waititi said it was a gruelling selection process and he was proud to have made the cut.

     “I will be looking to establish a good team around me and ensure we put a good campaign plan to use the six months we have to do the best we can and get our key messages out there for the party.

     “Nearly 50 per cent of the people in Waiariki did not vote in the last election and that needs to change.

     “I think there is a lot of disenfranchised and disappointed people here who have not been represented well.”

     He said the Labour Party topped the party vote in Waiariki last election.

     “It’s time for them [voters] to put their trust in the party and their candidate.
     • weka 2.1.1

       4 April 2014 at 11:47 am

       Just ran the latest RM numbers through the electoral calculator. If Labour stand strongly in Waiariki and take the seat, rather than letting Mana take it, they prevent a L/GP/M win, and instead make Peters the kingmaker. If they let Waiariki go to Mana, they can form a L/GP/M coalition without NZF. Of course, NZF could still choose to go with National (take note leftie voters).

       Hard to know what Labour’s thinking is on this. Winning Waiariki doesn’t get them any more seats. The advantage I can see is that their party vote might go up (which might equate to another seat). Or they want to throw their lot in with Peters – risky I would have thought, and letting Mana have Waiariki doesn’t preclude that anyway.
       • Te Reo Putake 2.1.1.1

         4 April 2014 at 12:18 pm

         It’s not that hard to know Labour’s strategy. It’s win the seat. It’s win as many seats as possible, actually, just like every other party.

         But I’m encouraged by what I heard from Hone on RNZ earlier in the week, which makes it clearer that mana will positively support a Labour led Government. That makes accommodations with Labour and the Greens, pre or post election, a far more likely thing.

         He also indicated that sitting on the cross benches was the likely place for them*, voting issue by issue, something LP and I were riffing on last week. That probably means voting confidence and supply for a minority Cunliffe Government. He had a perfectly sound reason for not directly joining the Government; it can be kiss of death for minor parties. Here’s hoping he’s right this election.

         http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2591151/hone-harawira

         *Also mentioned manadotcom a few times. There’s your brand, right there.
         • weka 2.1.1.1.1

           4 April 2014 at 12:25 pm

           “It’s not that hard to know Labour’s strategy. It’s win the seat. It’s win as many seats as possible, actually, just like every other party.”

           But under MMP, getting another electorate seat doesn’t equate to an increase in overall seat numbers ie it doesn’t directly increase the likelihood of forming govt, and in fact could decrease the likelihood if the seat is taken from an ally. So I can only take from your comment that Labour consider getting as many electorate seats as possible more of a priority than winning the election, which you have to admit is pretty daft.

           Thanks for the rest of the comment, good to see that being discussed.
           • Te Reo Putake 2.1.1.1.1.1

             4 April 2014 at 12:54 pm

             Cheers, weka. Under MMP, Labour aren’t going to win the election. They might be able to form the Government, but numbers within that coalition count. The more seats, the stronger the voice.

             Just a thought; wouldn’t Labour trying to throw a tight 3 way contest to advantage mana, even on a nod and wink, be patronising to their voters? In Epsom and Wigram, the outcomes were predictable, so not so much of an issue. But, in a seat where every vote counts, I think it’d be seen as a bad look, even if the maths added up. It could backfire badly.
             • weka …

               4 April 2014 at 1:28 pm

               Are you suggesting that Labour winning Waiariki gives them an additional seat overall? For that to be true, wouldn’t the Labour list vote have to drop quite a bit? They currently have 34 seats, of which something like 22 are from electorates. How would making that 23 increase the overall number of seats?

               The reason that Epsom is an issue is precisely because it’s ACT not National that takes the seat. That’s my point. National taking Epsom doesn’t increase their advantage.

               “Under MMP, Labour aren’t going to win the election”

               Sorry, but that is such a FPP statement. If the left parties get enough seats to form govt, that IS a win. We really need to get past this idea that Labour are THE main player and might get to form govt with the support of others but are still the govt. The reality that is unlikely to change any time soon is that left wing govts will be coalition govts from now on. Further, the GP can no longer be considered a minor party, and that changes the dynamic again. Labour is going to have to learn how to share.
               • lurgee …

                 4 April 2014 at 5:56 pm

                 But ‘left parties’ is a difficult stew to swallow. Can you see a Labour-Greens-NZ First-Mana coalition working? It is possible, but it would be a very dramatic soap opera.

                 Anyway, I would like to see Annette Sykes in parliament. Partly because I like the name Annette (I’m a very deep thinker) and partly because Mana needs to establish a brand beyond Hone.

                 That said, I voted for Mana in 2011 but I’m not sure if I will do so again if there is a link up with the Internet Party. Just don’t do it, Hone!
                 • weka …

                   4 April 2014 at 6:04 pm

                   “Can you see a Labour-Greens-NZ First-Mana coalition working?”

                   Of course not, which is why left wing voters should stop voting for NZF and calling it a left wing party (it’s not).
                   • lurgee …

                     4 April 2014 at 6:11 pm

                     I don’t think it is either. But it is quite possibly going to be kingmaker after the election. Hence its inclusion.

                     If ‘left wing voters’ are voting for Winston and his hangers on, Labour needs to be asking itself why that is.
                   • weka …

                     4 April 2014 at 6:22 pm

                     “But it is quite possibly going to be kingmaker after the election. Hence its inclusion.”

                     If Peters gets to be kingmaker, what makes you think he will offer a coaltion of L/GP/NZF/Mana? That seems extremely unlikely.

                     “If ‘left wing voters’ are voting for Winston and his hangers on, Labour should probably be asking itself why that is.”

                     I assume they already are. More interesting to me is why some people here can’t see the risk in voting for NZF.
                   • lurgee …

                     4 April 2014 at 7:57 pm

                     If Peters gets to be kingmaker, what makes you think he will offer a coaltion of L/GP/NZF/Mana? That seems extremely unlikely.

                     Because Labour may not have any choice in the matter, if the numbers work out against them. it might be the only way for Labour to govern is to offer some sort of combination of the above. They already need the Greens and NZF to get to to 50%, and even then it is marginal. Another MP or two from Mana might be the difference.

                     Which, as I’ve pointed out, is not likely to be a stable or happy arrangement.

                     And I agree it is unlikely Peters would go with such an coalition. But it might be all Labour can hope for.

                     I assume they already are. More interesting to me is why some people here can’t see the risk in voting for NZF.

                     Indeed. But if Labour have been ruminating on the NZF factor, it doesn’t seem to have led to much.

                     Still, if NZF is essentially supported by rightwing voters, it offers access to a crucial demographic for Labour. If they are willing to make another treaty with the Devil Winston.

                     (Edited after the Devil complained about having his good name traduced by comparison to Winston Peters.)
                   • weka …

                     4 April 2014 at 8:13 pm

                     I was meaning why would NZF include Mana? It’s highly unlikely they’d need the numbers.
                   • Chooky …

                     4 April 2014 at 9:10 pm

                     @ weka …yes I can see it working!…and add Dotcom into the mix as well

                     ….and Winston/NZF was once to the Left of Labour over sales of State Owned Assets ….remember?!

                     …..i always do a double take when people suggest that Winston is somehow to the right of the Labour Party…cough cough…Labour has been pretty NOT Left in the traditional sense of a Labour Party for a long time now…….and you couldnt get much more right than Roger Douglas and cronies, some of whom are still in Labour and some the founder/backbone of Act …and then there is Peter Dunne…..
                   • weka …

                     4 April 2014 at 10:15 pm

                     That’s a single policy Chooky. And Douglas was never true Labour, he was part of the Trojan Horse for ACT.

                     KDC can’t be an MP so can never be part of a coalition.

                     Are you suggesting that if Peters were kingmaker he would include Mana in a coalition even if he didn’t need to? Why? Out of the goodness of his heart.

                     NZF are not a left wing party, despite their stance on asset sales.
                   • Colonial Viper …

                     4 April 2014 at 10:36 pm

                     NZF will not raise the retirement age, if you want a second left wing policy. And it will take a harder line than Labour against foreign buying up of NZ farms and property as a third policy.
                   • weka …

                     4 April 2014 at 11:03 pm

                     Good points. I guess it also depends on how much you trust them.
                   • Colonial Viper …

                     4 April 2014 at 11:24 pm

                     Not that much…
               • bad12 …

                 4 April 2014 at 6:25 pm

                 weka, your discussion with TRP is exactly the same one i have had with that one befor,

                 It is obvious that ‘winning’ Waiariki would knock one off of ‘the right’s’ tally but considering the Party vote that is the only plus for Labour, the rest is just the rumblings of the old dinosaur who is still firmly mired in FPP politics,

                 Should Annette Sykes win Waiariki,(which i expect Her to do), then there is one vote gained from Flavell not being there,and, one more vote gained for the ‘left bloc’ from having another Mana party MP in the Parliament,

                 My view is that a strong Labour campaign for the electorate vote in Waiariki might just hand the seat to Flavell, and while i do not agree with the latest Roy Morgan polled level of support for the Maori Party, that poll would suggest another Maori Party MP would come in on the party list…
                 • weka …

                   4 April 2014 at 7:53 pm

                   Thanks bad. Do you think it’s inevitable that the Mp would go with National? Or is there now opportunity for the Mp to work with or support a left coalition given the departure of Turia? (either way, I’m hoping Sykes wins too, for Mana and because she would be awesome in parliament).

                   I’m kind of surprised at TRP and am left assuming that he prefers opposition to having to work with a party like Mana (I don’t believe he misunderstands what Labour taking that seat could mean in terms of a left wing govt).
                   • Colonial Viper …

                     4 April 2014 at 11:33 pm

                     I’m kind of surprised at TRP and am left assuming that he prefers opposition to having to work with a party like Mana

                     There are still many parts of Labour who don’t fully accept the electoral implications of MMP, it’ s impact on electorate targetting, and what it has wrought upon the Party.

                     Labour is a party which sees its policies and its positioning as a “broad church” as being optimum for addressing the concerns and the needs of the bottom 95% of society…yet it can only muster 30%-33% in the polls.

                     This screams disconnect.
   • Disraeli Gladstone 2.2

     4 April 2014 at 11:42 am

     The comments about Cunliffe reads quite harshly.
     • weka 2.2.1

       4 April 2014 at 11:51 am

       I thought so too. Hard to see the point of that.
       • karol 2.2.1.1

         4 April 2014 at 11:58 am

         Many on the Left and within Labour are pushing for Labour to take a stronger left wing stance.

         Much like Hone also pushing TIP to explicitly support the left.
3. Tiger Mountain 3

   4 April 2014 at 11:10 am

   Not sure who coined it but–“other countries lock up their radicals, but in NZ we put them into parliament” about the time of Keith Locke and Sue Bradford’s entry.

   Sweet indeed if Sykes and Minto made it too. And they would not be there just to warm a leather bench. Mana is active all year round not just in the electoral cycle. Why not talk to Dotcom? It has got more publicity for Mana in a couple of weeks than they have had for months. They have already shifted TIP (The Internet party) to seeking a change of government and not supporting the torys, before much specific policy has even been developed.

   Whats in it for Mana? Without shifting from their social policies one centimetre they could gain some more of the youth vote. Kids understand the tech side of what TIP is on about according to my son and friends. Like an extra internet pipe. Bye bye data caps.

   Whats in it for non Mana supporters but who want to see the Key gang gone? An alliance of some sort could be the tipping point come election day for the key strategical issue of the next few months–denying John Phillip ShonKey and his filthy colleagues another term.
   • Disraeli Gladstone 3.1

     4 April 2014 at 11:41 am

     It comes down to whether you believe “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”.

     I don’t. I’d rather the left wins without Dotcom and his baggage.
     • weka 3.1.1

       4 April 2014 at 12:08 pm

       I can see all sides of this one. But I don’t actually see how this is that different to Labour’s long standing reliance on NZF.
       • Disraeli Gladstone 3.1.1.1

         4 April 2014 at 1:09 pm

         I don’t like Winston Peters at all. But I don’t see how he’s even comparable to Kim Dotcom. Even with the donation scandal.
         • weka 3.1.1.1.1

           4 April 2014 at 1:30 pm

           Is it KDC’s criminal convictions that are the issue for you? Because other than that I don’t see much difference in the value of them as political men. The details are very different of course, but if we are looking at individuals who hold balances of power, I don’t get why KDC is so beyond the pale.
           • Disraeli Gladstone 3.1.1.1.1.1

             4 April 2014 at 2:01 pm

             There are several factors.

             Dotcom’s criminal convictions.

             His time running MegaUpload. I think copyright is out of date. I think a lot of movie studios are making rods for their own backs. I think we can update copyright for the internet. I am also a content creator. Copyright is important to my livelihood. It would be good for me if it was updated, but not good if it was completely ignored. I don’t agree with MegaUpload. I also, personally (and this is just an opinion), find it hard to believe that Dotcom didn’t know what was going on.

             There’s also concerns over Kim Dotcom as a person. He’s seem quite creepy over issues of gender and sex. He’s made rape jokes. His comments of Stephanie Key’s artwork wasn’t particularly respectful.

             Similarly, I actually find the whole Nazi angle of Dotcom unsettling (coming from a half-German background).

             There’s also his attitude to wealth. This is a man who has shown that he’s largely a very rich man-child. He buys boats. He gets girls into his hot tub. He throws foam parties on said boats with said girls. I don’t have a problem with that. It’s his money. If I’m honest, I use my money to buy silly things I probably don’t need, although not to such an extent. But I don’t think that’s the type of person I want involved with the governance of the country.

             Also, while I don’t have a problem with that last bit (I’m a leftist centrist in economic matters), I don’t see how Kim Dotcom ridiculous use of his money gets a free pass from left-wing commenters while John Key’s holiday home is regularly brought up in conversation by people around here. It’s a double standard.
             • Tiger Mountain …

               4 April 2014 at 2:53 pm

               Get past Kim Dotcom and look at the possibilities of Mana/TIP co-operation. No one forced Kim to stand by various lefties in Queen St or the Mt Albert hall meeting. He will never park his rear end in the NZ parliament, more likely in a cell back in the land of the free.

               Mana apparently was the last of the serious political groups to meet with Dotcom and if the members ultimately say no it won’t happen. But why should Mana not meet with rich white folks? Mana has more reasons to be anti SIS/GCSB/Cop special ops etc than this one individual. What if TIP came on board with Mana’s UBI and tax policies? A lot of other people ripped off by mobile plans and ISPs are investigating TIP too.

               Mana operates under the radar for many but they have a thriving branch in Mangere due to a spinoff from John Minto’s Auckland Mayoral campaign where a community cleaving motorway was kicked to touch for the foreseeable future by local action.
         • Chooky 3.1.1.1.2

           4 April 2014 at 9:18 pm

           I like both Winston and Dotcom

           …..as far as i can see it is the rightwingers who hate them both….because they know both Winston and Dotcom are not for NACT….and will spoil Nacts chances of winning the election.
           • Huginn 3.1.1.1.2.1

             5 April 2014 at 7:19 am

             +1 here, Chooky

             Winston is an exceptionally talented Opposition politician and that’s important because democracy is all about Opposition.

             And Kim has done us all a very great service by making the internet a political issue this election.
           • Disraeli Gladstone 3.1.1.1.2.2

             5 April 2014 at 8:44 am

             I still think there’s going to be a lot of disappointed people when come October, Winston Peters has decided to go with National.
             • Chooky …

               5 April 2014 at 9:01 am

               if Winston goes with National it will say he has no integrity….i do not believe this…he hates and despises John Key/NACT and the GCSB spy bill..he hates the selling off of state owned assets…he hates the selling off of NZ farmland and property to foreigners etc etc

               ….i find it amusing that the right wingers are now so keen to court him…to say he will go with National against all the counter indications …..and especailly as he last worked with a Labour govt in coalition and has worked very well with Labour in the past under Helen Clark

               …all the signs are that he will take great pleasure in being able to bring down John Key and his NACT house of cards
               • Disraeli Gladstone …

                 5 April 2014 at 10:32 am

                 It’s relatively simple.

                 If Labour can make Winston the first cab off the rank (with Greens only on confidence and supply), he’ll go with Labour.

                 If Labour can’t make Winston the first cab off the rank (because the Greens quite justifiably want seats in cabinet for being likely 30% of the government), he’ll go to National where he can be the most important partner.

                 Sure, Winston would love to bring down John Key. There’s no love lost there. But he’s not going to do so at expense of his own influence and positioning. He wants to be #2. If Labour can’t give it to him, Key aside, he’ll go with National.

                 Anywhere, there’s more than one way to break a man. Winston will probably take a lot of joy in being the person that John Key has to talk to every time he wants to pass legislation. Extracting his pound of flesh over the course of three long years.

                 That’s why it’s important Labour try and push to 36-37% while the Greens stay at 11-12% so that they don’t need Winston.
                 • Chooky …

                   5 April 2014 at 3:39 pm

                   Winston would NEVER recover from a coalition with NACT and he knows it …..his reputation with NZers is very important

                   Winston does have some principles and being able to talk with John Key as adversary /buddies is NOT in the mix………he has better things to do…like bring down NACTs house of cards completely…and get on with the job of being Minister of Foreign Affairs which he excels at ….and which incidentally NACT has made a real botch of by slashing the diplomatic service

                   Winston is no longer in competition with the Greens….they should both pull their horns in and work for the best of Left/ Labour Cunliffe led coalition…. together with Mana / Dotcom
                   • Disraeli Gladstone …

                     5 April 2014 at 4:02 pm

                     Who said they will need to recover?

                     I wonder what Winston would prefer. The legacy of having an established political party. Or the legacy of being the only person who made that party work.

                     If the next term is his last term, it might soothe his ego to then see NZ First crash under the 5%. He was the only person who could make NZ First soar.

                     Winston Peters is essentially Sir Alex Ferguson in this hypothetical.
4. Rosie 4

   4 April 2014 at 12:36 pm

   To put it plainly, imo, Annette Sykes is an awesome woman.

   The speech she gave at the TICS meeting in Wellington last year was fabulous. All the speakers were very good and presented a unique angle but to my mind she really stood out.

   Mana are a truely people centred Party and to have even one extra seat in a Labour lead Government may provide enough of an influence and steadying hand should Labour start looking over their shoulder at their right wing past. – they could be the conscience of the Left, in power.
   • Jim Nald 4.1

     4 April 2014 at 1:08 pm

     Would be good to hear a party advocate to keep the same, or argue for a lower, retirement age.

     There is a strong public policy case to take into account the fact that life expectancy (although increasing in recent years) for Maori is generally about 7 years lower than for non-Maori. Will be important to consider Pasifika as well. The issues involved would also have strong socio-economic class aspects.
   • Chooky 4.2

     4 April 2014 at 8:59 pm

     +100 Rosie…Annette Sykes is an amazing woman!!!! ….and Mana is the conscience of the Left
5. Tracey 5

   4 April 2014 at 1:18 pm

   “The last crew has pretty much given up because the word I get from them is they don’t want to go fighting for something when they know (David) Cunliffe is not cutting it for a lot of them, he’s not providing the kind of leadership and it’s kind of heartbreaking for a lot of them…

   …He also has talked of being in dialogue with Labour MPs and the Green Party.”

   does this means the labour mps hone is talking to are disgruntled and he’s looking for waka jumpers? does this add weight (haha) to dotcom’s claim of having a sitting Mp, and they may be from labouor? Even a maori seat?
   • karol 5.1

     4 April 2014 at 1:27 pm

     On RNZ Hone said he has on-going contact with the Green Party and talked regularly with some Labour MPs. It indicates he isn’t talking to Labour on a party to party basis, unlike with the Greens. Maybe he has continuing communication with Maori Labour MPs? Who knows?

     http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/ntn/ntn-20140402-0930-hone_harawira-048.mp3
     • Tracey 5.1.1

       4 April 2014 at 1:56 pm

       yes, but in his speech he, presumably deliberately, decide to swipe at cunliffe and division within labour, but then hone is presumably chasing labour votes as hard as maori party votes.
6. bad12 6

   4 April 2014 at 6:47 pm

   Probably not the ‘best’ idea for Hone to be making such comments about David Cunliffe, but, as far as polls go, and yes, i know that the only poll that really counts occurs in September, it can hardly be said that Cunliffe has made a huge impact,

   Not wanting to get into that question i prefer to comment upon Policy that might either help or hinder Labour getting a better % of the vote at the election,(the superannuation one i would suggest as a glaring example of the latter),

   As far as a Mana/Internet Party amalgamation goes i am ‘waiting’ on the membership to pronounce that either dead or alive, but, if it’s alive then, if i believe for a minute that both Annette Sykes along with John Minto are likely to end up in the Parliament alongside Hone i will be voting for that,

   i see no problem between the policy of the parties, it is the carve up of any rewards gained by such an alliance that to me is of all importance, and while i see Annette claiming the Waiariki seat this election it is important for the Mana Party to make allowances in any further negotiations with the Internet Party just in case She does to secure that electorate seat while driving a hard bargain to also have John Minto become an MP…
   • srylands 6.1

     4 April 2014 at 7:52 pm

     Minto did some good work in 1981, but he is basically an old communist. I recall he proposed a “maximum wage” and a 100% tax rate above that. Absurd stuff. He is also anti Israel. So he opposes the only democracy in the Middle East. If you want the Left to get ahead, forget it. He is toxic. If he surfaces as a candidate he will just drive more voters to National.
     • lurgee 6.1.1

       4 April 2014 at 8:10 pm

       What an odd idea. I don’t think many people likely to vote for Mana will switch to National because Minto stands as a candidate for them.

       And Israel is not the only democracy in the Middle East. By any reasonable definition of the region, Turkey is in the Middle East, and is democratic. Ditto Lebanon. Iraq is a sort of democracy, or are you suggesting our sterling work in 2003 was all for naught? And Egypt had a brief experiment with democracy, though we didn’t like the results so did something about it.
     • bad12 6.1.2

       4 April 2014 at 8:27 pm

       SSLands, being fill of the milk of human kindness today i will simply echo the other comment directed at you, ODD, havn’t you noticed yet that everything you publish here is at ODDS with everything else that is published here,

       i can only add, that He is and if the Roy Morgan is anywhere near reality, National’s vote has gone South, So wrong twice in one comment, pretty average for you….
       • alwyn 6.1.2.1

         5 April 2014 at 2:26 pm

         The Roy Morgan poll is illustrating the political skills of Matt McCarten in a very big way.
         Matt realised that the only way Labour can get anywhere is to keep Cunliffe out of sight, and sound. He just has to keep Cunliffe away from the media and Labour have a chance.
         Where has Cunliffe been for the last month or so? I certainly haven’t seen anything from, or about, him.
         I wonder how it is going to work later in the year though? Will it be possible, when the debates are due, to hit Cunliffe in the mouth, bandage him up and, claiming he has a broken jaw, put Shane Jones into the debates as a substitute?
         • bad12 6.1.2.1.1

           5 April 2014 at 6:00 pm

           Shane Jones is simply a ‘wing-nuts’ wet dream, he is a leader of nothing except the rights wish to drive the Labour vote ever lower…
7. Vanessa Rare 7

   30 April 2014 at 12:29 pm

   Whanau and I are with you, Hone and Mana all the way.

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