Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, November 11th, 2011 - 44 comments
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As usual, good news and bad news for the Left in the latest pair of polls.
The bad news is that Labour is down in both (albeit margin of error). The ONE News Colmar Brunton has National down 2% to 54%, and Labour down 2% to 28%. Greens are steady on 9%. The Herald Digipoll has Labour down 0.4% to 28.7%.
The good news is that The Herald Poll also has National below 50% for the first time:
Poll shock as Nats’ support falls under 50%
National has plunged nearly five points to below 50 per cent in the past week and the smaller parties – including a fast-rising New Zealand First – are picking up support, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey. …
NZ First is within striking distance of the crucial 5 per cent threshold, with just 1.3 points to get there.
While Labour has lost support, the popularity of its leader, Phil Goff, has shot up.
It is the first time National has fallen below 50 per cent in a Herald-DigiPoll survey since the last election.
It’s only one poll, but the Nats will be worried. Suddenly the incipient death of the ACT party looks like a real problem for them. So, predictably (from the same piece):
Prime Minister John Key is expected today to have a symbolic public meeting with Act Epsom candidate John Banks, who on today’s poll would take another Act MP into Parliament with him if he won the electorate seat.
If National’s polling slips further before the November 26 election, two Act MPs could become important to Mr Key forming a new government.
And at that point, things start to get pretty interesting…