Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, November 27th, 2013 - 111 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and things are neck and neck.
Written By: - Date published: 9:43 am, October 30th, 2013 - 26 comments
Fairfax suffered the double indignity of first having its poll contradicted by One News’ hours later and then Key himself mocking the idea that National is on 50%. Still rogue polls happen. That’s statistics. We can look through the variation in single polls by comparing the 6 After David polls to their 6 Before Cunliffe predecessors to see if there really has been a Cunliffe bounce.
Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, October 28th, 2013 - 162 comments
The final Fairfax poll before the last election had National on 54%.
Update: the Colmar-Brunton poll today directly contradicts the Fairfax poll despite being taken on the same days.
Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, October 20th, 2013 - 40 comments
National led the combined Labour+Green vote for 76 successive Roy Morgan polls. But how times have changed. The Left’s led 10 of the last 14 polls, and all the last five. With solid vision, policies, and a credible candidate for PM, the Left finally has the goods to win. Watch for the cracks to appear in the Nats as they position for a post-Key future.
Written By: - Date published: 2:32 pm, October 3rd, 2013 - 27 comments
In the wake of the astounding victory of the NZ team in San Diego, Scott at Imperator Fish offers these words of sage advice to those on the left looking at recent polling. For those of you convinced by the current winning trend, some of us hope that you will take his advice (so the rest of us can carry on with the work that needs to be done).
Written By: - Date published: 6:15 pm, October 2nd, 2013 - 141 comments
The latest Roy Morgan is out and there has been a surge of support to Labour. The Labour/National gap is now 5%, the smallest gap in many years. The next election is going to be very interesting …
Written By: - Date published: 2:28 pm, August 27th, 2013 - 236 comments
John Key claims he doesn’t care who becomes the next parliamentary Labour leader, while trying to drive a wedge between candidates. As Cunliffe gains momentum, Key turns negative on Cunliffe & throws some stones in his glass house. Gordon Campbell puts things in perspective.
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, July 31st, 2013 - 342 comments
Latest Roy Morgan is out and it’s a shocker.
Labour has dropped below 30% and the Nats are now over 50%.
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, July 23rd, 2013 - 32 comments
The latest poll results are [fantastic/terrible]!
Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, July 19th, 2013 - 151 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is mixed news for the Left. A second high result for National, but Labour’s vote holding steady after difficult weeks.
Written By: - Date published: 10:18 am, July 5th, 2013 - 16 comments
I’ve been having a look at the Roy Morgan trend. Oddly, I don’t see this Labour ‘flat patch’ that people are claiming is happening. What is happening is that the Greens are trending slightly down (as it usually does mid-term) and Labour isn’t rising fast enough to offset that. We’re still some way off the safe-zone for Labour+Greens, and the question is whether we’ll get there.
Written By: - Date published: 12:08 pm, June 26th, 2013 - 79 comments
Imagine if, five times in 18 months, I stuck my head out the window on a random day, made a guess of the temperature that was 95% likely to be 3 degrees or less too high or too low and, then, extrapolated climate change data from my results. You would laugh at me: too much chance and margin of error, not enough data points. Still, that doesn’t stop the Herald.
Written By: - Date published: 7:09 am, June 5th, 2013 - 107 comments
The polls are in. Despite an unprecendented assault by the capitalist forces to protect the profits of the electricity companies, the people want change, they want lower power prices. A TVNZ poll shows 57% of people support for the Labour/Green NZ Power plan, while the TV3 poll shows 54% support. So, keep on howling, Righties. Keep putting profit before people.
Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, June 4th, 2013 - 110 comments
At the same time as Russel Norman was laying out the Key Government’s flagrant disregard for democracy in powerful terms (and weren’t the Right’s pundits quick to circle the wagons around Key after that?), a poll was out showing the public is agreeing with Norman’s view of Key. 43.5% of Kiwis trust Key less than a year ago. 49% think its time for a change of government.
Written By: - Date published: 8:55 pm, May 29th, 2013 - 138 comments
You can get all excited over every poll you see from people who poll a handful of times a year. You can try to read meaning into every bump and dip to fit your narrative, even if the ‘movements’ are just statistical noise. Or you can look at the trends.
Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, May 29th, 2013 - 175 comments
So, the latest Fairfax poll isn’t flash for Labour and it’s the same old story of leadership. But don’t get too excited there’s no ‘trend’ in the Fairfax – they’ve polled just three times since the election. We also know that most pollsters have been over polling National for years. Instead, lets ask what the polls show now compared to the immediate pre-election poll.
Written By: - Date published: 8:57 pm, May 15th, 2013 - 45 comments
A reader sent us a comment from another blog by someone who was polled a couple of weeks back. The questions are very interesting, especially once you realise that it’s clearly being done for National and the Right in Auckland (one of the questions gives it away). Have a read, then I’ll tell you why I reckon the Nats are going to fund the City Rail Link in the Budget.
Written By: - Date published: 7:58 am, April 5th, 2013 - 31 comments
So, the trend in the Roy Morgans continues, ever so painfully slowly to move in the Left’s favour. Since Labour recovered from its election disaster level to 30+, the Left’s support has risen at a bit under 0.2% per month, the Right vice versa. Lab+Green now outpolls National as often as not. But ‘if these trends continue’ is the most dangerous phrase in politics.
Written By: - Date published: 11:21 am, March 23rd, 2013 - 17 comments
Three of the Herald’s political staff has a crack at trying to explain why National polled 48.5% in the latest Herald-Digipoll. Consensus seems to be that John Key’s an angel sent to earth to do very little but keep enough of the middle class happy enough who’ll never lose. May I humbly suggest an alternative theory – that the Herald-Digipoll is broken.
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 20th, 2013 - 28 comments
The Roy Morgan polls continue their mad merry-go-round, and we bloggers continue to get too excited about it. The latest RM projects a win for Labour / Greens.
Written By: - Date published: 9:09 pm, February 28th, 2013 - 146 comments
I guess the title says it all. The latest Roy Morgan has National at 47.5% (up 3.5%), Labour 30.5% (down 4%), Greens 12.5%, and NZ First at 3%. I’m not really in the mood to piss around with analysis tonight. You’ve heard me moan about the state of Labour enough lately. But it’s not the […]
Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, February 25th, 2013 - 43 comments
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, February 20th, 2013 - 32 comments
There is no sensible “political narrative” that makes sense of the two most recent polls, it’s just noise – the margin of error. But the underlying trend is still good for the Left…
Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 14th, 2013 - 136 comments
Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll looks good for Labour, but individual polls are noisy. Much more importantly, better measures such as the Pundit poll of polls are also looking good for the political Left. Let’s see Labour and the Greens extend their lead to establish a clear majority, without NZF or any other party holding the balance of power…
Written By: - Date published: 6:15 pm, January 31st, 2013 - 281 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll has National on 46%, Labour 31.5%, the Greens on 13.5%, and NZ First on 5.5%. It just amazes me the government can still poll close to 50% after stuff up, after stuff up. Were this reflected in an election then you can bank on a National-NZ First Government. I’m sick […]