web analytics
The Standard

Herald Digipoll

Written By: - Date published: 3:21 pm, October 30th, 2007 - 15 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

pie graph small

Today’s Herald Digipoll is not good news for Labour, coming off the back of last week’s positive Roy Morgan poll which showed a centre-left majority. As the Herald notes, on the basis of this poll National has enough support to govern alone.

But what it also demonstrates is the mistake National has made in devouring its potential coalition partners (ACT and UF score a pitiful 0.2% each). MMP doesn’t look too fondly on parties gaining a majority by themselves, and as the election nears and National’s vote inevitably drops down to the mid-40s the numbers game will start to look very different.

Labour’s vote has actually held up pretty well, and at just 0.8% less than the last Digipoll it’s well within the margin of error. Still, they’d be feeling a lot more comfortable in the early-40s, especially with the Greens a little closer to the 5% mark than they’d like.

In a strange twist that would appear to cast some doubt on the poll’s accuracy, Helen Clark has increased her lead over John Key in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, leading him 50.8% to 37.3%. This is odd because preferred PM generally tracks pretty well with the party’s fortunes.

Also of interest is the projected size of the Parliament, with ACT, United Future and Progressive’s low polling adding to the Maori Party’s usual overhang to stretch the house to 125 seats.

Overall, it’s 65 seats to the centre-right (Nat, ACT, UF) and 60 to the centre-left (Lab, Grn, Prog, Maori). Even on a bad day, there’s still not much in it.

15 comments on “Herald Digipoll”

  1. Sam Dixon 1

    Glad youse didn’t ignore this poll just because its not great news. It must be tempting just to be the sunshione gang for the left like Farrar is for the right but that’s the way of a hollow man.

    Strange poll though. We’re going to have to wait for more polls but the trend had been National down, Labour up – even Colmar Brunton was showing National peaking in May-July and slipping

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4232/
    http://colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php?pageLoad=18
    http://www.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/graph.jpg (DPF’s summary of polls with an orange – Labour Greens line added)

    – and there was no major events to move that number of people to National, plus you have this strange result with Clark up, Key down and their parties going opposite… its wait and see time I guess.

  2. Daveo 2

    The graph really does show how close it is in a way you’d never get from the media’s FPP-style coverage.

    It really does show how high National’s vote has to be to win government – I’d say 47% plus to be in with a chance. And as you say, that’s just not very likely.

  3. LFC 3

    Poll after poll shows the right has a small base that’s augmented with swing votes. I suspect this is a bit of a rogue one but even here we see that Labour’s solid base is the largest. I’d be interested to see a poll that was based on policy rather than party but I guess when one of the two major parties doesn’t have any policy that might be a bit one sided.

  4. illuminatedtiger 4

    Even if National do get in their tenure will be limited. New Zealanders hate privatization.

    refuses vietnamese

  5. milo 5

    I haven’t been by all that much, but I am pleased to see this post. It’s really hard starting up a new blog, and I reckon there are several development phases. For The Standard they would seem to be:

    1 The John Key attack site.
    2 The John Key attack site with a few other posts.
    3 Labour supporting blog with some attacks and interesting links.
    4 The left wing site that can acknowledge bad news.
    5 The left wing site that can criticse it’s parliamentary wing.
    6 The left wing site that can laugh at itself from time to time.
    7 The left wing site that provides a forum to improve policy.

    So you are up to (4), by my ‘ladder’. That’s pretty quick progress. Especially as it takes time to find a voice. Good job.

    But you really need to get a verification test that doesn’t look like a google ad.

  6. Tane 6

    Milo, off the top of my head, here’s your 5 – http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=520

    And your 6 – http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=252

    And I’m sure there’s a 7 or two in there somewhere, but hey it’s after 5 o’clock and I’d rather be drinking beer.

  7. milo 7

    Enjoy your beer. Cheers.

  8. r0b 8

    Milo, you are wise and full of chocolatey goodness! The Standard can set the standard for constructive online debate. Onwards!

  9. Trent 9

    I quite like that poll, it suggestes that NZ is over socialism.

  10. all_your_base 10

    Hey milo, verification test that doesn’t look like a Google ad? Do you mean the captcha? It helps computers read books. When the robots take over I’d suggest it would be in your best interests to have contributed just a little. Don’t say we didn’t warn you…

  11. ak 11

    I quite like Key’s flip-flops, it suggestes that National now embraces socialism.

    I quite like the result of the last 3 elections, it suggestes that NZ likes socialism.

    I quite like the fact that tories now accept all the policies they used to bemoan, it suggestes they are nothing more than fearmongering handbrakes on history.

    I quite like Trent’s comments, it suggestes that tory apologists are moronic prats.

  12. Billy 12

    Time to acknowledge that Key has not lost his Mojo?

  13. Robert Owen 13

    This Poll Hmmm
    I think the most important fact in analyzing all polls for a number of years is The “Hard” vote fot the left Green Labour is 45%.

    Though nothing is guaranteed, a base of 45% is a very good start for any election.

    The National/Act Party on the other hand, would have a max of 40%
    That leaves 15 %
    Take off 5% core support for the other parties M/NZF/UF

    We are left with 10 % up for grabs

    So It all comes down to convicing 40% of those = 4% to vote left
    Which is approx 100 000 votes.

    It would also be a huge advantage to lift the turnout amongst the young adult/youth constituency

    If the left work hard at the next campaign I can’t see it losing

  14. rod 14

    I think it should be renamed Herald Dodgypoll.

  15. Trent 15

    No ak, it suggests that my theory that socialists have had their day, is correct. Only brain damage gives reasonable cause for voting for more of the same.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • The Grinch that stole the Waitangi Day public holiday
    It’s been a busy summer for AFFCO Talley’s as they toil away tirelessly in their attempts to bust the union at their Rangiuru site in Wairoa. Not content with locking out some of their employees who belong to the Meat… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    3 days ago
  • Waitangi 2016
    I have been to Waitangi every Waitangi Day except one since 2000. As usual, the good news and positive political events were ignored by many media. The Greens, for example, had a very good reception at Te Tii Marae. We… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    5 days ago
  • Waitangi 2016
    I have been to Waitangi every Waitangi Day except one since 2000. As usual, the good news and positive political events were ignored by many media. The Greens, for example, had a very good reception at Te Tii Marae. We… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    5 days ago
  • TPPA people power protests
    It was great to see such a big turnout – at least 15,000 in Auckland by some estimates. That’s a lot of people not buying the National Government’s spin on the TPPA. I was at the Auckland protests along with… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Ten Ways We can Honour Te Tiriti
    1. Learn about our history and current issues – Te Tiriti education is powerful, inspiring and available! 2. Learn about where you live and who the manawhenua are and what their issues in rebuilding their culture are. 3. Support manawhenua… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    1 week ago
  • “Not one more acre”
    The Public Works Act has too often been used to confiscate Māori land, and Members of Parliament will soon get a chance to vote to stop this. The original Public Works Act was developed in the 1860’s to facilitate… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    1 week ago
  • Rules needed so we can swim in Canterbury rivers
    First published in The Press on 1 February 2016 A work colleague recently asked me which rivers and lakes I’d recommend she take her son and nephew swimming during an upcoming visit to Christchurch, somewhere handy to the city. I… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Rules needed so we can swim in Canterbury rivers
    First published in The Press on 1 February 2016 A work colleague recently asked me which rivers and lakes I’d recommend she take her son and nephew swimming during an upcoming visit to Christchurch, somewhere handy to the city. I… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Vulnerable women the victims of Govt inaction
    The Government’s failure to address the housing crisis and its refusal to steps to raise wages have led to vulnerable women being exploited, Labour’s spokesperson for Women Ruth Dyson says. “Reports today that women are being offered free rent in… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Vulnerable women the victims of Govt inaction
    The Government’s failure to address the housing crisis and its refusal to steps to raise wages have led to vulnerable women being exploited, Labour’s spokesperson for Women Ruth Dyson says. “Reports today that women are being offered free rent in… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Vulnerable women the victims of Govt inaction
    The Government’s failure to address the housing crisis and its refusal to steps to raise wages have led to vulnerable women being exploited, Labour’s spokesperson for Women Ruth Dyson says. “Reports today that women are being offered free rent in… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Vulnerable women the victims of Govt inaction
    The Government’s failure to address the housing crisis and its refusal to steps to raise wages have led to vulnerable women being exploited, Labour’s spokesperson for Women Ruth Dyson says. “Reports today that women are being offered free rent in… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Vulnerable women the victims of Govt inaction
    The Government’s failure to address the housing crisis and its refusal to steps to raise wages have led to vulnerable women being exploited, Labour’s spokesperson for Women Ruth Dyson says. “Reports today that women are being offered free rent in… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Vulnerable women the victims of Govt inaction
    The Government’s failure to address the housing crisis and its refusal to steps to raise wages have led to vulnerable women being exploited, Labour’s spokesperson for Women Ruth Dyson says. “Reports today that women are being offered free rent in… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Arms Control a priority for the Pacific
    Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio and Chair of New Zealand’s Parliamentarians for Global Action says his priority will be getting the Pacific to sign up to the Arms Trade Treaty after being appointed by the PGA as… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Arms Control a priority for the Pacific
    Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio and Chair of New Zealand’s Parliamentarians for Global Action says his priority will be getting the Pacific to sign up to the Arms Trade Treaty after being appointed by the PGA as… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Arms Control a priority for the Pacific
    Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio and Chair of New Zealand’s Parliamentarians for Global Action says his priority will be getting the Pacific to sign up to the Arms Trade Treaty after being appointed by the PGA as… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Arms Control a priority for the Pacific
    Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio and Chair of New Zealand’s Parliamentarians for Global Action says his priority will be getting the Pacific to sign up to the Arms Trade Treaty after being appointed by the PGA as… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Arms Control a priority for the Pacific
    Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio and Chair of New Zealand’s Parliamentarians for Global Action says his priority will be getting the Pacific to sign up to the Arms Trade Treaty after being appointed by the PGA as… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Arms Control a priority for the Pacific
    Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio and Chair of New Zealand’s Parliamentarians for Global Action says his priority will be getting the Pacific to sign up to the Arms Trade Treaty after being appointed by the PGA as… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National must listen to Maori TPPA concerns
    The National Government must listen to the widespread opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) if it is to retain credibility with Māori, says Labour’s Maori Development spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The Iwi Leaders Forum met with Trade Minister Todd McClay… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National must listen to Maori TPPA concerns
    The National Government must listen to the widespread opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) if it is to retain credibility with Māori, says Labour’s Maori Development spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The Iwi Leaders Forum met with Trade Minister Todd McClay… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National must listen to Maori TPPA concerns
    The National Government must listen to the widespread opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) if it is to retain credibility with Māori, says Labour’s Maori Development spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The Iwi Leaders Forum met with Trade Minister Todd McClay… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National must listen to Maori TPPA concerns
    The National Government must listen to the widespread opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) if it is to retain credibility with Māori, says Labour’s Maori Development spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The Iwi Leaders Forum met with Trade Minister Todd McClay… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National must listen to Maori TPPA concerns
    The National Government must listen to the widespread opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) if it is to retain credibility with Māori, says Labour’s Maori Development spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The Iwi Leaders Forum met with Trade Minister Todd McClay… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National must listen to Maori TPPA concerns
    The National Government must listen to the widespread opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) if it is to retain credibility with Māori, says Labour’s Maori Development spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The Iwi Leaders Forum met with Trade Minister Todd McClay… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bob Tizard’s passing an end of an era
    Labour Leader Andrew Little has expressed his deepest condolences to the family of former Labour MP and Deputy Prime Minister Bob Tizard who died this afternoon. Robert “Bob” Tizard was a Labour MP for 30 years, representing the seats of… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bob Tizard’s passing an end of an era
    Labour Leader Andrew Little has expressed his deepest condolences to the family of former Labour MP and Deputy Prime Minister Bob Tizard who died this afternoon. Robert “Bob” Tizard was a Labour MP for 30 years, representing the seats of… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bob Tizard’s passing an end of an era
    Labour Leader Andrew Little has expressed his deepest condolences to the family of former Labour MP and Deputy Prime Minister Bob Tizard who died this afternoon. Robert “Bob” Tizard was a Labour MP for 30 years, representing the seats of… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bob Tizard’s passing an end of an era
    Labour Leader Andrew Little has expressed his deepest condolences to the family of former Labour MP and Deputy Prime Minister Bob Tizard who died this afternoon. Robert “Bob” Tizard was a Labour MP for 30 years, representing the seats of… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bob Tizard’s passing an end of an era
    Labour Leader Andrew Little has expressed his deepest condolences to the family of former Labour MP and Deputy Prime Minister Bob Tizard who died this afternoon. Robert “Bob” Tizard was a Labour MP for 30 years, representing the seats of… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Differing view on TPPA agreed
    Opposition Leader Andrew Little has given dispensation to MP Phil Goff to take his own position on the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement due to his historic involvement in negotiating its predecessor, the P4. “Phil has had a longstanding involvement and… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Differing view on TPPA agreed
    Opposition Leader Andrew Little has given dispensation to MP Phil Goff to take his own position on the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement due to his historic involvement in negotiating its predecessor, the P4. “Phil has had a longstanding involvement and… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Differing view on TPPA agreed
    Opposition Leader Andrew Little has given dispensation to MP Phil Goff to take his own position on the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement due to his historic involvement in negotiating its predecessor, the P4. “Phil has had a longstanding involvement and… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Differing view on TPPA agreed
    Opposition Leader Andrew Little has given dispensation to MP Phil Goff to take his own position on the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement due to his historic involvement in negotiating its predecessor, the P4. “Phil has had a longstanding involvement and… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Differing view on TPPA agreed
    Opposition Leader Andrew Little has given dispensation to MP Phil Goff to take his own position on the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement due to his historic involvement in negotiating its predecessor, the P4. “Phil has had a longstanding involvement and… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Differing view on TPPA agreed
    Opposition Leader Andrew Little has given dispensation to MP Phil Goff to take his own position on the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement due to his historic involvement in negotiating its predecessor, the P4. “Phil has had a longstanding involvement and… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Scandalous Saudi sheep saga rolls on
    It is scurrilous that the Government is pushing ahead with plans to spend many millions of taxpayer money on an abattoir in Saudi Arabia without knowing who’ll end up owning it, Labour MP David Parker says. “More than $12 million… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Scandalous Saudi sheep saga rolls on
    It is scurrilous that the Government is pushing ahead with plans to spend many millions of taxpayer money on an abattoir in Saudi Arabia without knowing who’ll end up owning it, Labour MP David Parker says. “More than $12 million… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Scandalous Saudi sheep saga rolls on
    It is scurrilous that the Government is pushing ahead with plans to spend many millions of taxpayer money on an abattoir in Saudi Arabia without knowing who’ll end up owning it, Labour MP David Parker says. “More than $12 million… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Scandalous Saudi sheep saga rolls on
    It is scurrilous that the Government is pushing ahead with plans to spend many millions of taxpayer money on an abattoir in Saudi Arabia without knowing who’ll end up owning it, Labour MP David Parker says. “More than $12 million… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Scandalous Saudi sheep saga rolls on
    It is scurrilous that the Government is pushing ahead with plans to spend many millions of taxpayer money on an abattoir in Saudi Arabia without knowing who’ll end up owning it, Labour MP David Parker says. “More than $12 million… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Scandalous Saudi sheep saga rolls on
    It is scurrilous that the Government is pushing ahead with plans to spend many millions of taxpayer money on an abattoir in Saudi Arabia without knowing who’ll end up owning it, Labour MP David Parker says. “More than $12 million… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Joyce destroys Government rail link certainty
    Infrastructure Minister Steven Joyce has destroyed the certainty the Prime Minister gave private sector investors in his State of the Nation announcement on the City Rail Link, Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says.   “Steven Joyce has again poured… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Joyce destroys Government rail link certainty
    Infrastructure Minister Steven Joyce has destroyed the certainty the Prime Minister gave private sector investors in his State of the Nation announcement on the City Rail Link, Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says.   “Steven Joyce has again poured… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Joyce destroys Government rail link certainty
    Infrastructure Minister Steven Joyce has destroyed the certainty the Prime Minister gave private sector investors in his State of the Nation announcement on the City Rail Link, Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says.   “Steven Joyce has again poured… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Joyce destroys Government rail link certainty
    Infrastructure Minister Steven Joyce has destroyed the certainty the Prime Minister gave private sector investors in his State of the Nation announcement on the City Rail Link, Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says.   “Steven Joyce has again poured… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Joyce destroys Government rail link certainty
    Infrastructure Minister Steven Joyce has destroyed the certainty the Prime Minister gave private sector investors in his State of the Nation announcement on the City Rail Link, Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says.   “Steven Joyce has again poured… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Joyce destroys Government rail link certainty
    Infrastructure Minister Steven Joyce has destroyed the certainty the Prime Minister gave private sector investors in his State of the Nation announcement on the City Rail Link, Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says.   “Steven Joyce has again poured… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Pasifika caucus visit as Kiribati water crisis deepens
    Water supplies are deteriorating in Kiribati as Labour’s  Pasifika climate change task force prepares to head there and Tuvalu, says Labour’s Pacific Climate Change Spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “There is a growing crisis on the atolls due to water supplies… ...
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere