Housing bubble inflating faster – Key’s panic now obvious

Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, July 6th, 2016 - 157 comments
Categories: housing, john key, national, useless - Tags: , , ,

The housing bubble is inflating faster than ever:

Auckland’s average house price will hit $1 million by next year
…
Quotable Value figures issued figures for the last three months, showing prices were rising at their fastest rate since 2004.
…
Auckland house values shot up 4.7 per cent in the last three months and 16.1 per cent since last June, reaching a new average of $975,087.

And the driving force behind this frenzied rise?

Investors were also hungry for more properties too, she [Andrea Rush, QV national spokesperson] indicated. “The latest CoreLogic buyer classification data has show that the share of sales to investors has gone from 37 per cent in 2012 and it’s up now to 46 per cent of investors,” she said.

Those investors appeared to be buying in advance of further Reserve Bank crackdowns, she indicated. “Investors are trying to get in as conditions are currently,” Rush said.

If prices stay this high (or keep going up) it’s a disaster for National. If the bubble bursts and prices come down it’s a disaster for National. Key is between a rock and hard place, and his panic is now obvious:

Whiff of crisis in the air as Key calls for central bank help over housing
…
House prices are rising faster than the Government wants. Not just in Auckland. Almost everywhere but Christchurch. … Scatter gun initiatives have been coming at the rate of about one a week for months now, the latest being a $1 billion loan facility to help local government build new infrastructure. No sign yet, though, that ministers are ready to abandon their ideological bunker and directly fund some affordable private homes.
…
It was, he [Key] said, the “responsibility” of the Reserve Bank to look at extending the current loan to value ratios imposed on investors, which generally require them to stump up a 30 per cent deposit in Auckland. Should LVR restrictions be extended across the country or lifted above 30 per cent for investors? Key said “yes”. And not just sometime. If not Thursday, then at least sometime soon.
…
The Government may not be ready to admit there is a crisis in the housing market, but it sure looks like a crisis in its own ranks.

It is all looking very messy. Panicky in fact.

Yes, Key is now actively begging the Reserve Bank to do his job for him.

The political problem for Key is that the Nats are simply unable to take the actions required to actually address the crisis. They are ideologically opposed to some (significant curbs on speculators, capital gains tax) and appear to be simply incapable of others (build some damn houses!). The electoral problem for Key is that Labour are going to offer what the country needs – stay tuned this weekend.

157 comments on “Housing bubble inflating faster – Key’s panic now obvious ”

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  1. vto 1
    6 July 2016 at 7:17 am

    Key’s housing problem is also each of our own personal problem as when this all ends the shit that will get thrown by the now very large fan will cover everybody… everybody

    • marty mars 1.1
      6 July 2016 at 8:25 am

      yep good point – a lot of poo will spray at a great rate of knots from Auckland and everywhere in this country will be affected. Internal refugees, foreclosures, desperation, increased homelessness and crime – and that is just the Auckland politicians!!!

    • mosa 1.2
      6 July 2016 at 9:36 pm

      What concerns me is that that Key and his government arent acting in the interests of our country by allowing this massive housing calamity to unfold because it will be a massive correction like the GFC and the 1987 stockmarket crash that had a devastating effect on our economy and took years too recover and this has the prospect too hurt every sector of the economy, i mean lets face it the only growth in the economy after immigration is the value of realestate and thats a serious failure on the part of this government who have been in office for 8 years and have NOT acted in solving and fixing this major threat to the people who keep them in office and all the others who dont.
      This event when it happens under Keys watch will be the real legacy he leaves behind.
      All his bullshit and lies and deceptions will be seen for what they are a massive disaster for New Zealanders.

      • Pat 1.2.1
        6 July 2016 at 9:39 pm

        not strictly true…there is one other area of significant growth apart from immigration and property values…..tourism, with its low paid, low value returns.

  2. Craig H 2
    6 July 2016 at 7:18 am

    Crisis? What crisis? National Party members are creaming it!

    • Molly 2.1
      6 July 2016 at 8:28 am

      I have an acquaintance who used to teach someone currently in John Key’s research unit.

      According to them, the housing issue is one that Key has been happy to ignore because many of his voting constituency are those that are benefitting, and the housing market masks a downturn in the economy. It also attracts overseas investors to NZ kicking the ball further down the road.

      As the post mentions, now even some of those constituents are getting concerned, the ideological view of the National Party makes them discount effective measures:
      building state houses, restricting residential sales to NZ residents/citizens, charging higher rates on rentals, implementing an effective land tax on undeveloped residential land, and effective capital gains tax.

      • Colonial Viper 2.1.1
        6 July 2016 at 9:48 am

        They will be looking hard at some tougher measures now, going into election year. This issue is big enough now that they will leave nothing off the table for (internal) discussion.

        • Molly 2.1.1.1
          6 July 2016 at 10:34 am

          Yes, more than likely.

          They will be looking to create policy that is the equivalent of lambs dressed up in wolf’s clothing.

  3. Fustercluck 3
    6 July 2016 at 7:27 am

    The 0.01%, internationally and domestically, need safe haven for their cash. Real estate in stable western democracies is superb for this purpose. Form many internationals a burst bubble and large decline in process is just fine when compared with risks associated with hyperinflation, nationalization of assets, etc, that exist in their home countries. The sharp inflation of prices (as opposed to value) will continue until that safe haven aspect is dealt with. Even 10% of the market being driven by these types is enough to wildly push the market and we are obviously well past that.

    Solution?

    1. Restrict purchase of real estate to citizens & permanent residents.
    2. Require 50% down payment from investors owning more than two properties (the classic quarter acre home plus a bach for which NZ is so nostalgic).
    3. Capital gains tax on all commercial property, residential income property of more than four units, and any property held in addition to the two mentioned above.
    4. Capital gains tax on ANY flipped property, i.e., sold in less than 24 months absent a documented reason for the sale (job change, family change, etc. The IRD can easily test for this).
    5. If the above does not do it, prohibit ownership (apart from the 1/4 acre and bach) of any dwelling that is not occupied by owner or documented tenant for at least 6 months out of each year.

    • dv 3.1
      6 July 2016 at 7:55 am

      OMG you WANT a joined up plan!!!

      I would add

      Add a tax of 1-2% to the interest on loans in the special housing areas.
      a transaction tax of the same size a cc transaction charge for investors.
      10 year s for flipped properties, but on a sliding scale.
      Allow councils to issue development bonds.

      • Fustercluck 3.1.1
        6 July 2016 at 7:58 am

        Yes to that (as a part of a joined up plan!).

        • Colonial Viper 3.1.1.1
          6 July 2016 at 9:50 am

          “Joined up plan” – this is a simple concept from the 1940s and 1950s that NZ needs to re-adopt.

      • Molly 3.1.2
        6 July 2016 at 8:36 am

        Overseas – including London – there are taxes to be paid on council re-zoned properties.

        Called a capital uplift tax, it taxes the property owners who have just been given a boost to the equity by the council processes – which is otherwise a straight out “gift”. This tax is paid when the land is either developed or sold.

        I have only seen this referred to in the Unitary Plan discussions once, and that was because I happened to pick up a hard-copy of a document when I attended a meeting. When I returned home, I could not find an online copy, and never heard it discussed or mentioned again.

        A couple of months later – at a Q & A session – I asked John Duguid (the Planner in charge of the Unitary Plan) whether it was being considered. A short but succinct answer that it had been discounted, showed the reluctance to even contemplate such a view.

        Given that development contributions have been limited by National, and the remainder of infrastructure costs need to be picked up by council (ie. ratepayers), we have not only provided all developers with a subsidy for development of sometimes inappropriate land, but rezoning has given them a tax-free equity boost.

        SHA’s also fall into this category.

    • save nz 3.2
      6 July 2016 at 9:43 am

      I agree with Flustercluck, as it allows Kiwis to live the middle NZ dream, have a bach, a property as an investment (I know many people are against this but unless you want to rely on the state at retirement, the investment options for Kiwis are poor to non existent).

      But would like some sort of transaction tax on shares and maybe stamp duty on registered property developers who are building apartments and commercial developments (maybe more than 5 units say). (As they are sold the DEVELOPER pays a stamp duty). So those that are building apartments with foreign money in particular have to stump up a percentage as they sell the apartment or development i.e. if they have a 5 million dollar apartment/commercial unit they pay say 2% stamp duty so it is $100,000 to the government per unit.

      Also all non residents should have to pay a stamp duty on property purchase.

      They get rid of 0% offshore tax havens here. In my view that is what seems to have pushed the property up the most.

      I am against capital gains, as most of the rich and foreigners will avoid paying it through legal tax avoidance so it would be a mockery when middle NZ tax payers are the only one paying it. Capital gains worked in the 20th century before globalism – now the idea should be to get the tax at the beginning (i.e. purchase) because we now consistently have the super rich not even on the top tax rates.

      The government also have to stop more migrants becoming permanent residents apart from in exceptional cases. It is a sick joke than Kiwis live in tents and laid off workers are crushed to death as they try to keep warm in recycling bins, because of the governments migration policies that are losing us farm and agriculture worker jobs and making housing unaffordable. That is not the Kiwi way!

    • KJT 3.3
      6 July 2016 at 11:54 am

      Forgot building 10 000 sate houses a year and renting them out at reasonable cost.

      From printing money as we did in the 50’s. NOT by inflating the profits of foreign lenders.

  4. RedLogix 4
    6 July 2016 at 7:35 am

    There is a reason why small island economies like say Tonga do not allow land sales to non-citizens. It’s just blindly obvious to them that if they did the locals would be quickly sold out and alienated from their own land.

    New Zealand is a small island economy. It’s just that we are not as smart as the Tongans.

  5. Greg 5
    6 July 2016 at 7:37 am

    If in doubt quote the Bard,

    http://www.enotes.com/shakespeare-quotes/hoist-with-his-own-petard

    Key made a lot of promises when Im PM in various speeches between 2006-2008, he hasnt kept one them,

    anyone bored and want to do a list?

    Key has already sold his mansion in NZ:
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/79063174/nz-open-to-chinese-investment-key-tells-chinas-business-bigwigs

  6. Nck 6
    6 July 2016 at 7:38 am

    99% of the comments on stuff were anti Key and pointed out the obvious mess Natz have created and maintained.

    • Rob 6.1
      6 July 2016 at 10:33 am

      But then it is quickly removed or comments shut when things don’t go the way stuff wanted.
      Look how quickly the article about speeding up land sales for Chinese by that dopey Louise minister went.

      • Yup 6.1.1
        6 July 2016 at 5:54 pm

        Been seeing that all week on stuff, they put up a story and let people comment, but then remove the comment section within 15 minutes… Very strange.

  7. BM 7
    6 July 2016 at 7:39 am

    Market is about to crash, anybody buying now is a fool.

    • Fustercluck 7.1
      6 July 2016 at 7:42 am

      You are SO right.

      • BM 7.1.1
        6 July 2016 at 7:55 am

        Who is actually buying at these prices?

        The current LVR is 20%, I’m struggling to believe there’s tons of buyers who’ve got a spare 200k just lying around.

        I thought New Zealanders were notoriously bad savers yet have no problem stumping up with these massive deposits.

        • dv 7.1.1.1
          6 July 2016 at 8:19 am

          The current LVR is 20%, I’m struggling to believe there’s tons of buyers who’ve got a spare 200k just lying around.

          They have in equity, and it is ‘free’ equity because of the price growth.

          • BM 7.1.1.1.1
            6 July 2016 at 8:30 am

            So you reckon it’s Joe and Joanne public taking the equity out of one house and using it as a deposit to buy the next.?

            Any one still doing that must have shit for brains.

            • dv 7.1.1.1.1.1
              6 July 2016 at 8:43 am

              Not so much Joe and Joanne public , but those with more than one property.

            • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1.1.2
              6 July 2016 at 9:53 am

              Yes there are still plenty of Kiwis around taking equity from one inflated Auckland property to buy the next (outside of Auckland) investment property. Auckland buyers have been very busy down here in Dunedin this year.

              Within Auckland itself I think even the local investor class is being priced out.

              Foreign money is pouring in however.

              That will rapidly reverse when GFC2 gains momentum.

              • BM …
                6 July 2016 at 10:20 am

                Yes there are still plenty of Kiwis around taking equity from one inflated Auckland property to buy the next (outside of Auckland) investment property. Auckland buyers have been very busy down here in Dunedin this year.

                Hamilton house prices have risen 30% in the past year.

                To give you an example how silly it’s getting, last week 1970 brick 2 bedroom unit on a handkerchief sized section, brought by a Auckland grandmother for $550,000.

                • Colonial Viper …
                  6 July 2016 at 10:28 am

                  That sounds about right. I personally know Auckland buyers who bought in Hamilton and Wellington last month. Investments.

                  • BM …
                    6 July 2016 at 10:31 am

                    She payed well above what it’s worth, but by Auckland standards it’s good value.

                    Outside money distorting the market.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      6 July 2016 at 10:33 am

                      International money distorting the Auckland market, and Auckland market distorting the smaller city markets.

                      Trickle down?

                  • Ben …
                    6 July 2016 at 11:24 am

                    Yes, but when the Auckland housing bubble bursts, the regions will follow suit with a reduction in demand and therefore prices. Not such a safe investment after all, but a cheaper one.

                    People using temporary equity to purchase in an over-inflated market are nuts. The banks facilitating this show poor judgement also.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      6 July 2016 at 11:30 am

                      Agree 100% with your comments. Anyone with any sense would be looking to move the balance of their portfolio to cash. Not diving deeper into this over hot property market.

                      And the thing with most of the regions, including down here in Dunedin, is that the population is stagnant to decreasing. At least in Auckland, population growth and the economy continues to be strong (relative to the regions).

                • One Anonymous Bloke …
                  6 July 2016 at 11:35 am

                  All hail Market. There is no alternative, remember?

          • Muttonbird 7.1.1.1.2
            6 July 2016 at 8:33 am

            Massive lack of understanding from the troll there.

        • Sabine 7.1.1.2
          6 July 2016 at 9:01 am

          Not New Zealanders, or some NZ’lers that have parents who help with the deposit, or some NZ’lers that have a house and mortgage on that.

          You remember the young guy with his 8 mortgages (the herald said houses) at 25.

          but the rest, are not buying. So good question BM, who is buying all the houses in AKL, because someone is.

        • Bearded Git 7.1.1.3
          6 July 2016 at 9:25 am

          46% of Akl house buyers are investors-that is the number everyone should be looking at. When the bubble pops there are going to be some very naked people standing on the beach.

          It just needs a trigger-watch the Italian banks that are in big trouble, Deutsche Bank too, and China.

          http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-05/look-inside-europes-next-crisis-why-everyone-finally-panicking-about-italian-banks

        • Visubversa 7.1.1.4
          6 July 2016 at 9:41 am

          People who come here on a business residency and buy a couple of $2 Shops as the “business” part but have shedloads of dodgy cash to launder, do not care about deposit requirements or interest rates. They wil buy anything they think will at least hold its value. They will also build a big “show off” home for themselves (or rather, for those of their relatives who are still in NZ). Both these things push up the prices for everyone.

          • save nz 7.1.1.4.1
            6 July 2016 at 10:00 am

            +1 Visubversa

            There are massive immigration scams – not only that, some cultures have dowry on marriage, what better way to drive up the price of marriage than offering citizenship in another country for you and all the relatives.

            The issue is, that Kiwis are very naive they think everyone is like them and seem to have zero understanding of the rest of the world, how valuable citizenship in NZ is, and there are so many offshore and onshore middle men making a killing out of it all.

            It is so easy to scam immigration, it is so easy to fake documentation and Kiwis are just like Naive kids when it comes to processing it. Even people I know have changed medical certificates to get residency and citizenship, not to mention how easy it is to borrow money put in your bank account and withdraw it after you “prove” to immigration you have funds to support yourself.

            Citizen should be only linked to the person for 15 years or something like that. Not an open migration policy for marriage and family members who Kiwis then have to support through welfare system while some go between gets rich off it all.

            In addition the $2 shops are bakery and takeaways are bad in many ways. They drive up commercial rents so that young Kiwi can not afford to start a business, they make the cities look disjointed and ugly with odd shops springing up with cheap goods everywhere, and they increase cheap and nasty consumerism and environmental damage with all the packaging and plastics.

            Far from migration adding to diversity, it is doing the opposite in NZ making the high street the same, bland and uninteresting, with fast food and goods in the same franchises where ever you go.

            • Sabine 7.1.1.4.1.1
              6 July 2016 at 11:22 am

              I think that Kiwis know full well that they are being screwed over, it is just that a large part of Kiwis has no issues screwing over the rest of kiwis.
              That is something that needs to be acknowledged.
              The Kiwis of the National Party led Government know what they are doing, they just don’t care one fuck if you or i or anyone else for that matter ends up homeless or unemployed, in fact it would suit their business model of a desperate population putting up with shit to just not be homeless and jobless.

              • save nz …
                6 July 2016 at 11:41 am

                I agree with you Sabine, but at least their is a limit on the amount of Kiwis screwing Kiwis and they are more likely to pay tax on it. I’m not ready to open up our doors to the global market of 7 billion citizens to screw each other over by saying Kiwis do it too. In NZ we do have a relatively fair and socially democratic society, this has been eroded over 8 years and National want to make it worse.

            • Anno1701 7.1.1.4.1.2
              7 July 2016 at 12:37 pm

              “In addition the $2 shops are bakery and takeaways are bad in many ways”

              some of these are also money laundering operations

              how else do you think we have 6 ( ! ) 2$ shops all selling exactly the same tat in our local mall

              lots of small “cash” transactions and lots of non-perishable stock , perfect combination

              I know of one Auckland Chinese restaurant that has 2 eft-pos terminals, the one “under the counter” is produced when Chinese tourists arrive buy the busload with Chinese bank issued credit cards which are charged via VOIP directly to the HSBC in hong kong , this money never sees NZ, it goes straight offshore no tax paid

              im sure this is going on in MANY other businesses

    • vto 7.2
      6 July 2016 at 7:48 am

      Perhaps on the basis of previous bubbles BM… but this time I have doubts as the world is vastly different and the world economy so much more massive. I suspect different forces are at play in the world today and there is potential for this to roll for quite a number of years yet….

      What is not different though is the human character and at some point the sheep will all try and flee out the gate at the same time, no matter the difference above…

      • RedLogix 7.2.1
        6 July 2016 at 7:54 am

        Yes. What I see is a global 0.1% with almost unlimited funds to buy up New Zealand. All of it … at any price.

        Most of us just have no idea just how much money these people have, and how desperate they are to park it somewhere relatively safe. And Trader John just can’t drag himself away from the sight of it.

        • save nz 7.2.1.1
          6 July 2016 at 10:07 am

          +1 RedLogix – that is what all these forecasters don’t understand. The world is now beyond NZ. If you allow the world to buy you up, house prices rise as it is not limited to Kiwi wages.

          That is why Key put in the tax havens for foreigners – that is his plan, get tax avoiders and corrupt individuals close by and then lure them in to buy up assets here.

          Of course there are always ‘commissions, donations and bribes’ for organising all this and Yay, a handy tax haven to hide it in.

          Key may be looking panicked but I think the spotlight on the tax haven is more concerning for him, that the plight of the National party next election and it’s future post Key, and certainly not the plight of the Kiwi poor with affordable housing.

        • Draco T Bastard 7.2.1.2
          6 July 2016 at 8:36 pm

          Most of us just have no idea just how much money these people have, and how desperate they are to park it somewhere relatively safe.

          Where it’s safe and they can get an income from it. Give them the time and they will buy up NZ turning the rest of us into renters and serfs.

    • KJT 7.3
      6 July 2016 at 11:58 am

      It won’t crash.

      National are well aware that if the housing market crashes they will lose the election.

      Meanwhile there are still another 10 billion people overseas, they can call on, willing to buy houses here if it shows any signs of dropping.

      • Dennis Frank 7.3.1
        7 July 2016 at 1:43 pm

        Yes, I share your view. Immigration is an excellent way for the left to trash our country in collusion with the right: import people who are fed up with trashing their home countries so they can come here and do it all over again. Morons in all directions, as far as the eye can see…

  8. AmaKiwi 8
    6 July 2016 at 7:58 am

    @ Fustercluck

    Good list and I agree with most of what you’ve written EXCEPT:

    “The 0.01%, internationally and domestically, need safe haven for their cash. Real estate in stable western democracies is SUPERB for this purpose.”

    Wrong. In a depressed market you cannot quickly convert real estate into cash. It’s not always a “liquid” investment.

    In a depressed market owning real estate can become a nightmare when there are no buyers at any price. It happens frequently, even in “stable democracies.” Remember NZ after the 1987 share market crash and the USA post-2008.

    If/When this bubble bursts expect a real estate nightmare here.

    • Fustercluck 8.1
      6 July 2016 at 8:06 am

      I have been involved in real estate markets that had bubbles burst in a big way. You are correct about the loss of liquidity but that is always a temporary problem and the 0.01% have heaps of patience. Sure, a few who get caught out will get burned but the majority will just let their capital sit there, perhaps finally with tenants to defray costs, and ride out the bubble effects with their assets intact. It is the middle class, dependent on wages for income, that get killed by the loss of liquidity when life circumstances require the sale of a home at an inopportune moment in the boom-bust cycle that is the norm today.

      You are indeed correct. A real estate nightmare is coming!

      • BM 8.1.1
        6 July 2016 at 8:41 am

        If you look at these two websites the disconnect sticks out like dog balls

        https://www.qv.co.nz/resources/property-investment-rental-analysis.

        http://www.mortgagerates.co.nz/

        The yield is no where covering the mortgage payments and other outgoings.

        People are in the market purely for capital gain and if things start heading south, expect to see the amount of houses appearing for sale to sky rocket.

        There’s going to be such a blood bath once the market turns.

        • Molly 8.1.1.1
          6 July 2016 at 10:41 am

          Don’t forget BM, that some are in a position to buy with cash and/or use overseas banks rates to purchase property in NZ.

        • KJT 8.1.1.2
          6 July 2016 at 12:01 pm

          When you sell a house on the coast in Holland, Singapore, England or Spain, our houses are dirt cheap.

        • KJT 8.1.1.3
          7 July 2016 at 1:55 pm

          In Europe and Japan at the moment the return on cash in the bank is negative.

          Housing, which will always recover if you have enough patience, especially in places like New Zealand, looks very good in comparison.

          Note: Where there has been a housing crash, like Britain, those who could afford to hang on have had their investment regain its value plus some more.

          Unlike share market investment where an individual company, once crashed, rarely recovers.

    • save nz 8.2
      6 July 2016 at 10:10 am

      @ AmaKiwi the property bubble can not burst if 67,000 people are coming into NZ. We have positive migration and new money arriving daily.

      So if the opposition get in, or National see sense, they need to carefully turn off the tap to avoid a crash. (They should have started tightening 5 years ago!)

      • Fustercluck 8.2.1
        6 July 2016 at 10:56 am

        Yes, but how many of those 67,000 can afford a $1m house in Auckland? I’ll bet that it is far from a majority of migrants that can do that. They are more likely to put pressure on rental prices than be able to compete with investors holding mountains of dead capital.

        • save nz 8.2.1.1
          6 July 2016 at 11:48 am

          @ Flustercluck – you have a point, but that is the problem, people are buying property but with our low wages you have to leave or have multiple jobs to pay the mortgage.

          The joke is that the government expects Auckland ratepayers or tax payers to pay $125,000 per new house for the new people they are welcoming in. We didn’t use to have this problem of a housing shortage, the crisis was created!

          Then the councils will borrow the money and have to sell off more assets.

          It crazy.

          We can’t afford it!

          It is anti business, who borrows $125,000, puts their own citizens out to be homeless to make way for a ‘restaurant manager or farm worker’ to come here when we have high unemployment?

        • b waghorn 8.2.1.2
          6 July 2016 at 12:35 pm

          i don’t know how many can afford it but i know one expat looking to come home that brought in melbourne for $550k not sure when) the identical house next door just sold for $1.5 mill.
          I’m picking they are not the only ones.

      • KJT 8.2.2
        6 July 2016 at 12:02 pm

        Only have to “invest” a million in a house, to get residency.

        • Stuart Munro 8.2.2.1
          7 July 2016 at 12:13 am

          Yup – a government that gave a shit would’ve stipulated employing a number of NZ staff or exporting products of a minimum value. Too much for the Gnats – they want to get rich for sitting on their arses, not running anything properly.

      • Dennis Frank 8.2.3
        7 July 2016 at 1:49 pm

        Correct. Both wings of the establishment are proven slow-learners. The bubble will not subside unless the supply-side lever is pulled back, and the pressure on the upward movement of prices then eases.

    • dave 8.3
      7 July 2016 at 6:59 am

      its after the bubble pops i fear as one commentator pointed out in 1987 stock market popped the only people wiped out were the share investors when and i will use the word when ,not if . due to over leveraged mibble classes who have used there homes as atms this time a crash will take out the whole economy the prospect of thousands of consumers effectively in insolvency is something NZ small economy couldn’t adsorb, i cant see how it can be avoided national have blown this bubble to such a dangerous level INCOME levels cant possible pay back the half a trillion we all owe!

  9. adam 9
    6 July 2016 at 8:15 am

    So at this rate, the billion is one thousand houses at best. That is without the usual waste and corruption associated with this national government.

    So let’s peel that back a bit then shall we, if the current way that this government does business is taken into account. That would be about 500 homes.

    So 500 homes, and we need how many?

    Oh and the bubble keeps going, and this lot are so slow at actually doing anything that might actually be good for people. So my guess – for their 1 billion dollars – we’d be lucky to see 200 homes.

    Lucky little wage slaves indeed.

    • vto 9.1
      6 July 2016 at 8:26 am

      yes, little wage slaves ….

      is it better to earn $1,000 per week and have to pay $1,000 per week to live

      or earn nothing and have to pay nothing

      pray tell me the difference

    • Bob 9.2
      6 July 2016 at 11:29 am

      “So at this rate, the billion is one thousand houses at best”
      Adam, you misunderstand what the $1Bn is for. This is an infrastructure fund that allows councils to borrow for roading, water, sewerage etc to enable housing developments to open faster and theoretically increase supply.

      I agree that it is a pathetic move that will not have a significant effect on housing costs, but it should allow for a few thousand houses to come onto the market sooner, not the 500 that you are quoting above.

      • s y d 9.2.1
        6 July 2016 at 2:54 pm

        The $1Bn is to be a loan to Auckland Council. (Most other TA’s are at their debt limits)
        AC will then go to the ‘market’ for a contract to build a motorway out to whangaparoa peninsula (penlink)
        China Construction NZ will ‘win’ the tender to build this horizontal infrastructure, (likely based on using directly imported labour, with attendant cost savings)

        AC will then need to up rates to repay the loan – some right wingers will be elected to reject rates rises, whereupon POAL will be sold.

        National Party donations will skyrocket.

        Theres the linked up plan

        • Bob 9.2.1.1
          6 July 2016 at 3:47 pm

          “The $1Bn is to be a loan to Auckland Council. (Most other TA’s are at their debt limits)”
          That’s part of the point, this doesn’t effect the councils debt limits, so any of the councils can use the fund.

          “AC will then go to the ‘market’ for a contract to build a motorway out to whangaparoa peninsula (penlink)”
          Not unless they can show that this is going to allow X,000 houses to be built, did you even read the proposal?

          “China Construction NZ will ‘win’ the tender to build this horizontal infrastructure, (likely based on using directly imported labour, with attendant cost savings)”
          This would be no different of the AC borrowed the money to build the infrastructure, so not sure what your point is.

          “AC will then need to up rates to repay the loan”
          No, AC will then charge $5k for each properties water to be connected, and upwards of $100k in building consents per property to pay the debt back.

          “Theres the linked up plan”
          Apart from none of what you have said makes sense, sure, great plan…

          • s y d 9.2.1.1.1
            6 July 2016 at 4:23 pm

            Jeez Bob, keep up…

            Mayor of TCC “Once we understand the details, we will assess our situation and see if it’s viable to apply for that fund. A lot of that will depend on whether it ends up on our balance sheet or anyone else’s. We don’t want any other debt that’s growth related”

            You know that the ability of TA’s to apply development contributions has been restricted. $100k for consents per property is total fabrication – no idea where you are geting that figure. DC’s on a recent house project in TCC was around $8k.
            See Mollys comment at 3.1

            It’s pretty clear that this infrastructure fund is tied up with PM’s earlier meetings with Chinese Construction industry rep’s and his floating the idea that they could ‘assist’ with infrastructure projects. This is SOP for the PM to casually throw out a proposal and see what the feedback is. If it ain’t too bad it’s dropped into a few more media releases, a couple of glowing Herald editorials later we then somehow end up with a new policy…..

        • Molly 9.2.1.2
          7 July 2016 at 8:11 am

          +100

          Exactly what the long-term goal is – and always is – with National.

  10. ianmac 10
    6 July 2016 at 8:43 am

    It is so likely that Key is desperate to avoid any action which would be seen to his supporters as collapsing the market. Blame the Central Bank. Blame banks in general. Blame the Labour Party. Blame Treasury. Blame anyone but the Government.
    After all those who are missing out are not his voters are they?

  11. Keith 11
    6 July 2016 at 9:02 am

    National are so compromised.

    Now Mr”show some guts” Key is hiding behind the skirts of the Reserve Bank because when it turns to shit, he don’t want the blame.

    Our tired arrogant pathetic poll driven self serving millionaires government is incapable of anything!

  12. Sabine 12
    6 July 2016 at 9:08 am

    friend of ours took in a Mother with two kids. She lost her rental when the house was sold. She has stayed with family but it got abusive. So friends came to the rescue cause that is what friends do.

    She now has an appointment with Winz on the 12th! Not tomorrow, not today, no over a week away as she was given the appointment last week. However, she was NOT told to go to the Marae if she has not place to go. Cause clearly Winz and the drones working there don’t care. They just simply don’t care.
    If the government changes, i want the WINZ overhauled and the drones there replaced. Every single one out of Winz and into the free market. Get jobs. Real jobs. With no job security, with no perks, with no career options and minimum wage.

    She was asked by someone at the call centre if she would consider moving to Whangarai. No job offer there, no family there, no friends there, but she could move there and get a job, how she is going to look after two littles under 6 who de the fuck cares, certainly not Winz. Husband? walked a way some time ago, having children was hard work and he was not cut out for it. Some simply aren’t parents material.

    So you know have 3 adults and 5 kids in a 3 bedroom house.

    I think its about time John Key felt a bit uncomfortable. Just a bit of the discomfort and fear that young women feels every time when she tucks in her kids and tells them that they soon will have a home again.

    National Party, a party of greedy irresponsible spendthrift wankers, that successfully brought a country to its knees.

    • Kay 12.1
      6 July 2016 at 3:40 pm

      @Sabine
      “I think its about time John Key felt a bit uncomfortable. ”

      Psychopaths don’t feel discomfort.

    • dave 12.2
      7 July 2016 at 7:07 am

      thats what they do every time you let them near government there a crime gang

  13. Pat 13
    6 July 2016 at 9:37 am

    just like CC we can have a controlled (semi) crash at a time of our choosing or we can do sweet bugger all and have an uncontrolled crash……either way we will have a crash.

  14. Eralc 14
    6 July 2016 at 9:44 am

    A better measure is the median house price. The average is affected by the squillion dollar properties at the top (which have always been there relative to the times). The average is obviously also affected by the lower priced properties, but not to the same extent. Median would give us a much better idea.

    I’m puzzled by the reporting of ever-rising house prices. We subscribe to QV E-valuer which updates every week. It gives the average in our area, the low/high value range of our property, and the average for Auckland. For 2016, the value of our house and the area has remained fairly constant.

  15. Dave 15
    6 July 2016 at 9:52 am

    I really fear the bust every boom has a bust this bubble is so large for such a small economy as New Zealand the fall out will be castrophic bubble pops but the debt still has to be paid keys legacy will a bankrupt nation self inflicted

  16. save nz 16
    6 July 2016 at 10:13 am

    Personally think it should be obligatory for all politicians every 4 years to live for a month on the average wage with no perks and then a week on welfare payments.

    I think social security policy would be changed pretty quickly.

    • KJT 16.1
      6 July 2016 at 12:05 pm

      Simply tie politicians wages to the median income.

      Of course, we would also have to ban them from accepting directorships and other post election bribes.

    • Gangnam Style 16.2
      6 July 2016 at 1:23 pm

      Someone did suggest Compass should supply Bellamys for a week.

  17. save nz 17
    6 July 2016 at 10:25 am

    The other trend happening in Auckland, is that people can’t afford a family home there, (or do not want to live there) or it costs too much time and money to commute, so they buy a cheaper apartment for work and then have their main residence else where.

    A lot of people living on Waiheke do this for example and probably politicians in Wellington.

    It is common in some parts of Europe for this too.

    So trends are emerging to do with modern life issues and how people solve them.

    Also people on local wages are struggling to afford Auckland even if they are migrants. For those that favour more taxes on rates etc, you can see it will only pick off residents who on local wages can not afford any extra taxes.

    The other day there was an article about a migrant came to NZ on $120,000 salary but could not buy a house in Auckland so he moved to Wellington.

    Successful people on supposedly high incomes can not afford to live in Auckland due to the low wages compared to cost of living.

  18. BM 18
    6 July 2016 at 10:28 am

    In a perfect environment the market would be efficient enough to ramp up and take advantage of this boom but alias there’s so many road blocks to development, land, skills, man power ,councils etc.

    Things seem to happen at a snails pace in NZ so we’ve ended up with a completely distorted situation.

    This is why I think Key has held off interfering, there’s a real opportunity going begging here but we as a country seem to lack the ability to take advantage of it.

    I think the only option left now is to stop foreign investment in the property market.

    • Gangnam Style 18.1
      6 July 2016 at 1:30 pm

      Jeez BM, thats kinda arse backwards there, this issue has been around for 10-15 years, we had a major earthquake inbetween, with calls from the Greens back then to have a big cash injection into training NZrs with building skills wotnot, but guess what? The market doesn’t do long term, it’s not like those old cathedral foundation builders who will never see the cathedrals built in their lifetimes, if there is no reward right now then the market moves on to find the next buzz. Imagine a Govt that had invested in training & apprenticeships 5 years ago, all those young apprentices would be raring to go now. Businesses not offering apprenticeships just proves my point of the market NOT providing.

    • gnomic 18.2
      6 July 2016 at 11:03 pm

      Considered treatment for the split personality problem? Does this comment originate with Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde? Pretensions at original thought not really going to work alas. Why not just stick with the Tory lickspittle stuff?

  19. Colonial Viper 19
    6 July 2016 at 10:48 am

    International context: third billion pound UK property investment fund has now suspended redemptions. Zero Hedge has labelled this the “3rd domino” with more to come.

    BTW “suspending redemptions” means that investors cannot get their money back out of the fund.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-05/domino-3-mg-suspends-trading-6-billion-uk-property-fund

  20. Brutus Iscariot 20
    6 July 2016 at 11:28 am

    Yet Little shares the Key delusion that house prices shouldn’t drop.

    • Colonial Viper 20.1
      6 July 2016 at 11:32 am

      Too many middle class voters have huge $$$ tied up in property.

      Tell these voters that you have plans to drop property values by 10% while increasing their costs via land taxes and capital gains, and watch your electability meter crater.

      • BM 20.1.1
        6 July 2016 at 11:44 am

        Isn’t that what Little is doing.?, except he’s aiming for 40%

        • Brutus Iscariot 20.1.1.1
          6 July 2016 at 11:46 am

          No, Little disagreed with Grimes. He said he wants “affordable housing”, but not for current prices to drop. In other words, he’s speaking from both sides of his mouth.

          • save nz 20.1.1.1.1
            6 July 2016 at 11:50 am

            @ Brutus Iscariot

            Not at all. It is called social housing aka State houses, and Labour has done this successfully before.

            • Brutus Iscariot 20.1.1.1.1.1
              6 July 2016 at 11:52 am

              Yes, but people don’t own state houses. And it’s home ownership that’s currently the problem. The middle class in NZ don’t want to live in state houses, they just want to be able to buy their own reasonable property.

              • One Anonymous Bloke …
                6 July 2016 at 12:13 pm

                They need higher wages or cheaper houses then. I’m sure the market will totes provide for them.

              • Draco T Bastard …
                6 July 2016 at 2:19 pm

                And it’s home ownership that’s currently the problem.

                That’s not the problem or not the way you think it is. The problem is that a few people own far too many homes each.

                The middle class in NZ don’t want to live in state houses

                Which is really quite silly as they’d be much better off living in a state house than owning their own. Rent set at an affordable percentage of income and maintenance for normal wear and tear taken care of (with a few corrections to legislation).

                they just want to be able to buy their own reasonable property.

                And that too is part of the problem as it allows and encourages the first problem of a few people owning far too many houses and living on the proceeds of others work.

                • Brutus Iscariot …
                  6 July 2016 at 3:30 pm

                  Naive again. Ownership is the key – go live in a state house and you’ve just exchanged one landlord for another.

                  State housing exists for those who can’t afford to support themselves. People who can support themselves want the security of an asset that they hold in their own name and can maintain as their future nest egg. And I’m talking about owner occupiers here, not investors.

                  Expanding the state house programme is only going to appeal to a few at the very bottom. Unless it’s done to flood the market with houses and drop prices (ie logical). There is no middle ground.

                  • KJT …
                    6 July 2016 at 3:55 pm

                    Depends how many we build.

                    Those who cannot afford to support themselves are now around a third of the population, by the way.

                    Due to short sighted and stupid Neo-liberal madness.

                  • Draco T Bastard …
                    6 July 2016 at 3:58 pm

                    go live in a state house and you’ve just exchanged one landlord for another.

                    Wrong. You’ve actually changed the landlord from a capitalist to yourself.

                    People who can support themselves want the security of an asset that they hold in their own name and can maintain as their future nest egg.

                    And National just proved that not to exist. The government can always take your house and land from you. Of course, you don’t actually own the land anyway.

                    Of course, what’s needed is a change in law that ensures that living in a state house comes with a lifetime lease that cannot be undone by any government.

                    State housing exists for those who can’t afford to support themselves.

                    One of the reasons why we have people who can’t afford to support themselves is because of private ownership of housing which allows a few people to bludge off of those who can’t afford their own homes.

                    State housing available for everyone fixes that problem.

                    There is no middle ground.

                    I’m not suggesting a middle ground – I’m not one of the idiots who thinks driving in the middle is a great idea. I’m saying that all housing becomes state housing and a right.

            • BM 20.1.1.1.1.2
              6 July 2016 at 11:53 am

              So the state is going to house every one.

              Where do you think that’s going to leave people who have brought rentals?

              You don’t think that may cause a slide in property values, what’s the use having a rental if there’s no one to rent to?

              • One Anonymous Bloke …
                6 July 2016 at 12:10 pm

                “every one”

                When did anyone other than you say that?

              • Draco T Bastard …
                6 July 2016 at 2:21 pm

                Where do you think that’s going to leave people who have brought rentals?

                Where’d they bring them from?

                And, of course, it’s not actually the governments job to protect peoples unearned income but to ensure that everyone is properly provided for.

          • BM 20.1.1.1.2
            6 July 2016 at 11:51 am

            Good stuff, best of both worlds.

            The man is truly a genius,

        • KJT 20.1.1.2
          6 July 2016 at 12:14 pm

          National cannot do that. Most of their voters are sitting on Capital gains investments.

          I would say that National are walking a tight rope at the moment.
          Keeping the swing voters who may be thinking about their children’s future, while not losing the voters who are making a killing out of “capital gains”.

          Losing power means they cannot continue with the thefts (Sorry privatisation) of our infrastructure, health and education systems to satisfy their funders

          • BM 20.1.1.2.1
            6 July 2016 at 12:19 pm

            And I’d say a fair few left voters as well.
            Teachers, nurses, university types and all the other public sector workers, not exactly poor people.

            The property market is like WFF and Super, politicians play with it at their peril.

            • KJT 20.1.1.2.1.1
              6 July 2016 at 12:28 pm

              Fair comment. As property has been the, historically, only reliable form of investment, and the only thing most of us can borrow for, many rather ordinary people have put their money in it.

              Teachers and Nurses cannot afford Auckland however.

              I can’t now, and I am on considerably more than a Teacher. Certainly cannot afford to move back.

              • BM …
                6 July 2016 at 12:35 pm

                As property has been the, historically, only reliable form of investment many rather ordinary people have put their money in it.

                This is why a government can’t be seen as interfering in the property market.

                If the market crashes and burns under it’s own steam, that’s fair enough you took the risk and you got burnt.

                A government or government in waiting that loudly proclaims they’re going to flood the market with tax payer funded properties to make housing more affordable is going to get slaughtered and will not see power again for a very long time.

                I’m sure Labour realizes this so I’m not quite sure what their real game is?

                • KJT …
                  6 July 2016 at 1:05 pm

                  Some one is going to have to do it.

                  Or it will collapse the country as housing costs vastly exceed incomes.

                  A Labour Greens Government will be better placed than National as less of their vote depends on speculators.

                  However stopping the rises to allow wages to catch up, as well as taking steps to raise wages share of the economy, back to former levels, is required, not a crash, which would have far to serious an effect on the real economy.

                  • Colonial Viper …
                    6 July 2016 at 9:13 pm

                    However stopping the rises to allow wages to catch up,

                    Just do a quick calculation on how many decades it will take for this to happen in Auckland.

                    And ask yourself how much of that time will a LAB/GR government be in power.

                • KJT …
                  6 July 2016 at 4:00 pm

                  Not to mention interfering now.

                  Using immigration to push prices up.

                  • Colonial Viper …
                    6 July 2016 at 9:16 pm

                    Only Winston has taken a firm stance on this issue – he wants to reduce immigration by 90%.

            • Pat 20.1.1.2.1.2
              6 July 2016 at 9:10 pm

              thought you were of the opinion rising property values was a good thing, a sign of a successful political leadership and sound economic policy, BM?

  21. Brutus Iscariot 21
    6 July 2016 at 11:45 am

    I’d like to add that the regions, although appearing superficially more attractive now due to lower prices, will actually tank harder as there are fewer fundamentals to support them. For example there is no land supply shortage in Hamilton and Tauranga, and growth from mass migration isn’t a factor – yet prices are spiking. Non-Auckland properties are what investors will sell up first to raise cash.

    • BM 21.1
      6 July 2016 at 11:48 am

      Lots of peat around Hamilton.

      Most of the western side you can’t really build on.

      • Molly 21.1.1
        7 July 2016 at 8:18 am

        The suitability of land doesn’t stop the SHA juggernaut.

        One of the first off the block, the Takanini SHA is located on ancient kauri swampland – and has since been extended.

    • KJT 21.2
      6 July 2016 at 12:25 pm

      Sarting to see migrants and Auckland refugees pushing up prices in Whangarei and Northland now, also.

  22. ankerawshark 22
    6 July 2016 at 12:08 pm

    http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/property-investors-take-on-john-key/ar-AAi7QBp?li=BBqdg4K

    S..t could really be hitting the fan for Key now! About time. His own turning on him

  23. Draco T Bastard 23
    6 July 2016 at 12:43 pm

    The electoral problem for Key is that Labour are going to offer what the country needs – stay tuned this weekend.

    “You can’t pass a law saying there can’t be land-bankers.”

    Well, actually, you can. Or, to put it another way, you make it so that land-banking is financially debilitating through the judicious use of capital taxes.

    • Richardrawshark 23.1
      6 July 2016 at 4:54 pm

      It better be good and pop us up 20 poll points DTB, i’m losing hope that anyone gives a shit out there, who’s left watching the news? people have Netflix? etc getting movies 24/7 whatever, how many couples of the new generations even watch news items.

      Random pull by cops for, rego and wof check the other day gave him some stick about the beating of the deaf guy that was in the news, and the cop didn’t even know what I was on about and didn’t watch the news. So ignorance is bliss, and I suspect key’s winning due to it.

  24. Steven Nichols 24
    6 July 2016 at 4:15 pm

    There is a lot to panic about; rising house prices, increased government debt, rising awareness of political instability in Britain, USA and Australia. National does not have a clue!

  25. Sookie 25
    6 July 2016 at 6:23 pm

    They can’t build more houses even if they wanted to. I don’t work in Auckland but even in my area you 1. Cant get builders 2. Cant get engineers 3. Cant get planners. 4. Cant get surveyors. 5. Cant get earthworks and concrete tradies. And so on and so forth. They should have seen this coming 3-4 years ago and tackled it head on but nooooo, the country is crippled by bullshit non-interventionist ideology.

    • RedLogix 25.1
      6 July 2016 at 10:11 pm

      Probably because no-one can afford to actually live in the place.

      In the meantime just down the road from me:

      http://www.domain.com.au/20-jones-avenue-mount-clear-vic-3350-2012572281

    • KJT 25.2
      7 July 2016 at 12:37 pm

      No apprentices from 1990 on-wards, due to Government trashing the apprenticeship system.

      All the trades are geriatrics in their 50’s like me, or a few young people in their 20’s.
      (Apart from the ones with bullshit quals from Asia etc who will work for nothing. And South Africans)

      A 30 year gap in training.

      Meanwhile 100’s of young people in North Tec training for the two or three apprenticeships available here each year.

  26. Venezia 26
    6 July 2016 at 7:18 pm

    Most of the people I know don’t watch the TVNZ or TV3 news, because it is a such poor quality, advertising saturated, waste of time.

  27. Ad 27
    6 July 2016 at 8:32 pm

    I bid at auction tonight.

    CV was $730.

    Market valuation was $1.05

    First bid was $1.2

    All done at $1.41.

    Waaaaay over anything rational now.

  28. TheBlackKitten 28
    6 July 2016 at 9:20 pm

    Key is only panicking because Auckland has got so out of hand that it may now just may cost him the election. A lot of people are not happy with the high levels of unskilled immigration that have been allowed to flow freely into Auckland that has resulted in horrendous pressure being put on infrastructure, terrible traffic and lower wages that have given us all a lower standard of living especially when you factor in the skyrocketing price of houses.
    Key should have stopped this years ago but he didnt because business love it. Peters pet subject has always been immigration so I bet he is just laughing his guts out with this blunder. Key has handed a potential extra couple of seats to Winstone with this incompetence.
    Immigration needs to be stopped now! More houses are needed, businesses need to get out of Auckland and into the regions and we need an investor tax to stop this obsession with current home owners and rich immigrants buying every single house in Auckland for a rental.
    Simply upping the deposit is not going to cut it as many investors now have such huge portfolios that they can easily cover a higher deposit by using their portfolios as leverage. This is why the hike on investor deposit rates at Xmas time has been a failure. What is needed is a tax to be introduced as a deteriant. So,if you want a ridicules portfolio of 164 houses then you should pay a tax and I mean a high high tax like 90percent of all rent collected.
    Key has spent years firstly denying Auckland has a housing issue, he then tried to pretend that high immigration numbers had nothing to do with it and now his latest is that high immigration is due to expats returning home from a tanked Auzzie economy. What he does not seem capable of understanding that it is high levels of expats returning back to NZ plus all his business mates low skilled immigrants that are creating this issue. We can’t stop expats from returning but we can stop unskilled immigrants. Key has even tried to tell us he found plenty of houses on trademe for under 500k in Auckland!!!
    Key is panicking, how the heck does he think all of those people looking for rentals or their first home to buy have been feeling for years? Living in Auckland with this housing crisis is darn stressful. This is pure incompetence on Nationals part and it may cost them next years election.
    To fix it the bubble has got to burst and Key does not want that happening on his watch. Part of his panic is that he knows the bubble just may burst sooner than what he was hoping for. We can’t keep going on with this.

  29. Smilin 29
    6 July 2016 at 10:29 pm

    Well all Keys BS over the last 8 years has finally smacked him in the face ,failure to be in touch with the country he so falsely calls himself a citizen who understands the country’s the needs
    Sweet Home Hawaii or wherever else he is actually registered with , a bit like those ships that carry the Panamanian register but are owned by shit knows who
    And the people who are born live and die here because thats their lot which they cant change suffer the BS on housing that Key is responsible for while he allows the no country rich international cartel of no allegiance to any country but the market to buy up this nation

  30. Justice T. McGovern 30
    6 July 2016 at 10:54 pm

    I hope you burn for this Key.

  31. Greg 31
    7 July 2016 at 5:01 am

    lets not forget Aussie banks in keeping kiwi farmers afloat,
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/76949956/More-dairy-farmers-under-pressure-from-banks-as-prices-fall

    Key wont do much, except make some noise or, policy on the hoof,

  32. Guerilla Surgeon 32
    8 July 2016 at 10:20 am

    Let’s face it, prices continuing to go up would be an inconvenience maybe for key. A price crash on the other hand would be a true disaster. Who do you think owns all those spare houses.

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