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If these trends continue… A-y-y-y!

Written By: - Date published: 10:16 am, March 6th, 2012 - 22 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

Here’s the trend for the past six months of Roy Morgans projected to the next election.

I made this graph, not to piss Righties off with its obvious outrageous-ness (OK, not just to piss Righties off) or even to point out how steep National’s current rate of descent and the Left’s ascent is, but to make a point: the continuation of the current trend is obviously not realistic. Therefore, at some point the tide will stop ebbing for National. There’s even a chance it could start rising again.

It would be foolish to think that the Left has 2014 wrapped up. Labour just got the tar kicked out of it. It’s weaker as a result in ways that are only just starting to manifest. Such as their inability to get timely press releases out. Key is still 4.5 times more preferred for PM than the alternative. That will matter when people decide who to vote for, or if they’ll just stay home.

Party support moves in waves. The skill of politics is to make the crests higher. The troughs shallower. My concern is that the absentee leader of the opposition is pulling a Disco Stu –

“Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976?

If these trends continue… AAY!”

22 comments on “If these trends continue… A-y-y-y!”

  1. Uturn 1

    If you tip the graph on its end, what you discover is that National and Labour have collided and wedged themselves on top of a large pointy mountain.

  2. Te Reo Putake 2

    Good post, Zet. I like the Roy Morgan polls because they have a depth of detail sadly missing from the others. You are dead right to point out that it’s not a done deal that the left will win in 2014. There is much work to be done, both in convincing voters to get off their chuffs and also in setting the scene for the governing coalition that will need to be formed by working together as an effective opposition in this Parliament.
     
    I would also add that I don’t think the next election will be in 2014, because I don’t think this Government will make it through the full term. The signs of imminent collapse are showing already and if Dunne goes feral, then all bets are off.
     
    And one final point, Shearer has been all over the news in the last couple of days so the ‘absentee’ attack is poorly timed, childish and factually wrong. The preferred PM poll is a red herring, IMHO. Goff clearly wasn’t popular and he got within a seat or two of becoming PM. Shearer is popular, relatively, and looks a good bet to be PM whenever the election is called. Unless the left descend into the usual partisan sniping, in the style of the ‘absentee’ jibe.

    • lprent 2.1

      The preferred PM poll is and always has been kind of ridiculous. It doesn’t bear much relationship to the party votes, which is what wins the treasury seats. I tend to view it as simply being something that is easy for the talking heads to explain in a 20 second sound bite on the TV news – and has no more significance than that.

      • muzza 2.1.1

        It is a talking point for idiots that much is clear. If I were a Labour supporter I would hope that it does not play too much of a role, because Shearer is not a leaders arse, that much is as obvious, as it was to say the same about key! The only rise I predict Shearer to get is either by default, or because some of the idiots who “liked” JK or perhaps didn’t vote at all, decide to try that humanitarian DS. Either way its a sympathy vote!
        Lets see some real political courage in this country, not just changing of govt only as a need to remove the last failure!

  3. I agree the ‘Preferred PM” polls are meaningless.

    Goff clearly wasn’t popular and he got within a seat or two of becoming PM.

    Not necessarily. Hadn’t Goff had already ruled out Mana? He would still have had to get coalition agreements with Greens, Maori and NZ First. That may not have been straight forward.

    • felix 3.1

      None of it’s straightforward though Pete.

      Getting National in again relied on having two of their arch-conservative former MPs take over their libertarian support party, while they were both National party members!

      Agree about the preferred PM though, total distraction.

      IMO it reinforces the false notion that our system allows us to vote for a PM.

      • Pete George 3.1.1

        Even the ‘if you voted today which party would you support?” question is divorced from the reality of election time decision making. Especially this far from the next election.

        • Lanthanide 3.1.1.1

          Probably the only way to really get the answers we want is to ask both questions:
          1. Who would you vote for today?
          2. Who would you vote for in the next general election, scheduled for 2014?

          Both questions have problems with them.

          Simply asking both questions together probably won’t be very helpful though either, because it will make respondents feel stupid if they answer different parties for the questions, so then it would matter which question was asked first as to how they’d frame the answer.

    • Honestly, I’ll believe that a potential PM wouldn’t go into coalition with a party when they actually have the opportunity to form a government with them and turn it down. Until then I am highly skeptical.

    • Te Reo Putake 3.3

      Labour have stitched together minority coalitions before, Pete, so no worries there. And Hone is, at worst, a neutral vote. He is almost certain to be voting for most legislation proposed by a left led Government, even if he is not part of it.
       
      As I said, a couple of seats would have left Goff able to try and put an alternative together, particularly if the two seats were Epsom and Ohariu. Without support from the right wing MP’s in those seats, National would be faced with the choice of leading a minority Government which didn’t quite have the numbers to get asset sales through or leave it to Goff to run an even smaller minority coalition Government that would have to do the numbers on every bit of legislation they proposed. In either of those scenarios leading the Government would be difficult, but Labour do have the experience of making it work.

  4. In either of those scenarios leading the Government would be difficult, but Labour do have the experience of making it work.

    I agree on both points. But they have made it work when they had a strong leader who chose not to include both Greens and NZ First in a coalition. Goff had trouble getting his own party to work with and support him.

    • Te Reo Putake 4.1

      I suspect Goff’s main advantage if he had the chance to put something together is that he knows and is liked by just about everyone in the house. Maybe not liked in a matey kind of way, but well enough to get Winston and the Greens in the same room together, something HC couldn’t quite acheive. Anyway, it’s not going to happen now for Goff, but I do think Shearer, having spent his working life getting warring factions to do the right thing, will be ideally placed to lead whatever coalition option is finally agreed upon.

      • Pete George 4.1.1

        Yes, too late for Goff.

        I hope Shearer can rise to the occasion. If he’s allowed to last that long.

        • Te Reo Putake 4.1.1.1

          Ho ho, very droll, Pete. You do recall that the MSM and righty bloggers like yourself spent the last 3 years predicting that Goff was going to be rolled, don’t you? And it never happened, even though Goff never managed to click with the public and was bombarded with media negativity all through his leadership. Shearer, on the other hand, is already more popular, has a clear majority in caucus and is being talked about in the media as the likely winner of the next election.

          • Pete George 4.1.1.1.1

            righty bloggers like yourself

            Very funny.

            I don’t think Shearer’s biggest potential problems will come from right winger bloggers and MSM – around him and within is where the competition is. Some of that can be ruthless, given half a sniff.

            About this time last term I approached people in Labour to see if I could contribute to them rebuilding. This was before I was on political blogs and acquired first lefty and later righty labels (when they don’t acuse me of sitting on the fence). They sounded sort of interested, we talked about doing something but then they didn’t follow up so I left it at that. They must have thought they had enough supporters and members.

            In retrospect I’m glad it worked that way, because I would have been as frustrated as hell. I think Labour as good as wasted the whole term when they should have been rebuilding and refreshing. I’m sure I’m not alone in making that assessment.

            I hope Shearer can inspire a renewal. I’d like to see all parties as strong as possible – that’s particularly important for presumed next government parties.

  5. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 5

    In 1976, the year before Elvis’ death, there were 9 full time Elvis impersonators in the world. By 1978, the year after his death, there were 72. Based on this exponential growth, I then confidently predicted that, by some time in 1984, one in three people would be an Elvis impersonator.

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      I guess you both missed this specific statement:

      “I made this graph, not to piss Righties off with its obvious outrageous-ness (OK, not just to piss Righties off)”

      and the entire thrust of the post itself?

  6. swordfish 6

    “I then confidently predicted that, by some time in 1984, one in three people would be an Elvis impersonator.”

    And you were quite right, it’s currently one in two. Have you not noticed John Key and Gerry Brownlee in their sequinned flares ? Murray McCully’s highly suggestive pelvic gyrations ?

    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 6.1

      I routinely reflect on how much better the world would be had I been correct.

  7. Georgy 7

    Maybe Shearer is doing something that a politician leader hasn’t done for a long time – sat, thought, quietly developed strategy, quietly set up his caucus and other support teams, quietly put in place some foundations and work with his team developing good relationships, team spirit, vision and committment.

    And isn’t Key making himself look silly with his inane comments and retorts and pathetic with his floundering economic management without the need for a sniping carping opposition?

    The dignity of Shearer looks good against the witlessness of Key.

  8. Georgy 8

    Has this disappeared?

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    The average Auckland home is on track to cost $1 million in 17 months’ time if nothing substantial is done to rein in soaring price rises, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Auckland’s house prices have skyrocketed 63 per cent… ...
    4 days ago
  • Vital support services can’t be left in lurch
    The National Government has big questions to answer about how a provider of services to thousands of vulnerable New Zealanders is set to fold, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. Relationships Aotearoa which provides support and counselling to families, individuals… ...
    5 days ago
  • Treasury and IRD on a capital gains tax
    Both the Treasury and IRD have been advising the National Government on the benefits of a capital gains tax. Documents released to the Green Party under an Official Information Act request show that John Key has been selective with the… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    5 days ago
  • Charity legislation needs review
    It is unacceptable that the big corporate based charities claim  millions in annual income tax exemptions, while small community based and operated non-profit organisations  struggle to gain official charity status, Labour’s acting spokesperson for the Voluntary and Community Sector Louisa… ...
    5 days ago
  • John’s panic-Key response to housing crisis
    John Key needs to tell New Zealanders what caused his sudden change of heart that led to the Government’s scrambled and last-minute housing measures, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “The Prime Minister’s sudden rush of blood to his head followed… ...
    5 days ago
  • Keep our Assets Christchurch Campaign: An update
    I recently presented my submission to keep Christchurch Council assets at the Christchurch City Council’s public hearings on its 10 year plan on 13 May. The hearings are live-streamed and recorded so you can watch them on www.ccc.govt.nz. The Council’s… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    5 days ago
  • John Key finally admits there’s a housing crisis
    John Key’s weak measures to rein in the astronomical profits property speculators are making are an admission – finally – that there is a housing crisis, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “But yet again National is tinkering with the housing… ...
    6 days ago
  • Government stifles voices in CYFs review
    The Government’s exclusion of the Māori Women’s Welfare League in a panel on the future of CYFs is a cynical ploy to stifle views, says Labour’s Māori Development Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta. “It's unbelievable that a significant review on the future… ...
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the Otago Chamber of Commerce
    Thank you very much for the opportunity to be here today. It’s a pleasure as always to be back in the town that raised me. Growing up in St Kilda meant that there was one thing that was a big… ...
    1 week ago
  • Key can’t just be Prime Minister for Parnell
    John Key must show New Zealanders in next week’s Budget that he is more than the Prime Minister for Parnell, and is also the Prime Minister for Pine Hill, Putararu and Palmerston North, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. In… ...
    1 week ago
  • Stop the conversions
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    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    1 week ago
  • More regional jobs go in Corrections reshape
    News that 194 Corrections staff are to lose their jobs will have ramifications not only for them and their families but for the wider community, Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. Prison units at Waikeria, Tongariro and Rimutaka face closure… ...
    1 week ago
  • Government’s climate meetings off to a bumpy start
    On Wednesday, I attended a hui and an evening meeting that the Government had organised in Nelson as part of its climate change consultation tour, to support the Nelson community telling the Government to take meaningful action on climate change.… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    1 week ago
  • Taxpayers the only ones left feeling blue
    Ministry of Social Development bosses could have saved themselves thousands of dollars in consultants’ fees by providing staff with rose-tinted spectacles, Labour’s State Services spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. A report out today reveals the Ministry is spending over half a… ...
    1 week ago
  • Why are the regions still facing restrictions?
    Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford is questioning why the regions should continue to be saddled with LVR lending restrictions announced by the Reserve Bank today. “Labour has been calling for the regions to be exempted from LVRs for the best… ...
    1 week ago
  • The high costs of weak environmental regulation
    Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere is described on the Department of Conservation website as “Canterbury’s largest and New Zealand’s fifth largest [lake], and an internationally important wildlife area.” But the lake is also polluted by nutrients leaching from farms in the catchment.… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    1 week ago
  • Submissions to Wellington City Council on their Gambling Venues Policy
    Every three years Councils across the country are required to check that their gambling venue policies are still fit for purpose and they can choose to consult on their policy if they are thinking of making changes. Councils don’t have… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Reserve Bank action shows Govt out of touch and out of ideas
    The Reserve Bank’s unprecedented measures today show it understands the serious risks of the overheating housing market – in complete contrast to John Key’s refusal to acknowledge the crisis, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The Bank is right to… ...
    1 week ago
  • Send us your snaps: 25 Years of the Green Party
    This year we've hit a milestone. We're turning 25.To help celebrate a quarter of a century, please send us your photos from the last 25 years of the Green Party Aotearoa New Zealand! Note: Photos must be jpg, gif or… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 25 Years of the Green Party
    This year the Green Party sends 25. To help us celebrate a quarter of a century please send us you photos of 25 years of the Green Party!Photos must be jpg,gif or png and smaller than 2MB. If you are… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bay growth plan too little too late
    Today’s Bay of Plenty growth study from MBIE is another example of Government spin - lots of talk but little action, says Labour’s Regional Development spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “This is a region that desperately needs to develop the downstream processing… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government bows to ACC pressure
     The Government has finally buckled to pressure from Labour and the New Zealand public in making a half billion dollar cut to ACC levies, but the full benefits are two years away,” says Opposition Leader Andrew Little.  “$500 million over… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • False figures cloud Auckland transport facts
    The Prime Minister should apologise and issue a correction after both he and Transport Minister Simon Bridges have been caught out misrepresenting facts on Auckland’s transport spending, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. "Both John Key and Simon Bridges have… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt books confirm National can’t post surplus
    The last publication of the Government’s books before the budget shows National will break its promise of seven years and two election campaigns and fail to get the books in order, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The Government is… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • US state joins NZ with GE food labelling
    New Zealand has a similar law making the labelling of many GE foods compulsory, but the Government seems to let it slide.  Because the government has not monitored or enforced our GE food labelling laws since 2003, it seems the… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour Pays Tribute to Erima Henare
    “E ua e te ua tata rahi ana, Ko te hua i te kamo taheke i runga raa. No reira e te rangatira Erima takoto mai I roto I te ringa o Ihowa o nga Mano e moe e.” ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour Pays Tribute to Erima Henare
    “E ua e te ua tata rahi ana, Ko te hua i te kamo taheke i runga raa. No reira e te rangatira Erima takoto mai I roto I te ringa o Ihowa o nga Mano e moe e.” ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour Pays Tribute to Erima Henare
    “E ua e te ua tata rahi ana, Ko te hua i te kamo taheke i runga raa. No reira e te rangatira Erima takoto mai I roto I te ringa o Ihowa o nga Mano e moe e.” ...
    2 weeks ago

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