Written By: - Date published: 4:58 pm, October 1st, 2008 - 136 comments
Categories: crime, dpf -
Tags:
David Farrar really is a disgusting person at times. He writes that we shouldn’t look at overall crime rates (although he made a big fuss when the overall recorded crime rate went up because of changes in recording practice in 2006). Instead we should just look at violent crime, after all “having 1,000 less [sic] cannabis crimes and 500 more rapes is a net decrease in crime, but would be a worrying trend”. He then goes on to act all shocked over the recorded violent crime stats. First, he’s trying to make you think there are more rapes (in fact, the number is down and he’s hardly one to fret about rape when he’s good mates with a pornographer). Secondly, this professional statistician is deliberately trying to mislead you regarding the change in the crime stats. He knows that the explanation from the professionals is reporting of domestic crime is up but he hopes you don’t.
Crime is down because poverty and the conditions that breed crime have been reduced. At the same time, reporting of crimes is up. Thefts, car thefts, and burglaries (together, the largest group of crimes) have halved in the last ten years. Homicides are down. In fact, all classes of crime are down except two. Recorded violent crime is up because reporting is up. Recorded property damage offences have climbed in the last three years thanks to the moral panic over tagging. But those rises are attributed (not by me, by the Police) to higher reporting.
Farrar needs to misrepresent the statistics to create the impression of a wave of crime where there is none. It’s all part of National’s ‘New Zealand sucks’ campaign. It disrespects his readers and the victims of crime. Disgusting.
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farrar is a windbag and a fool with oversize dewlaps but we have to put up with him because we live in a democracy. anywhere else and he would be laughed out of town!
To be fair to david his audience is really only the MSM and his retarded chimp commenters so it’s not like he can expect to be caught out…
Anywhere else and you would have been sent to a re-education camp
That is the worst article I have ever seen.
I’m not going to comment at this time on his “apparent” mis-use of crime statistics because i’m not going to pretend that I know anything about it. But personally attacking Farrar by calling him disgusting just makes you look like a prick.
And how is the fact that he is friends with a pornographer even relevant to his mis-use of crime statistics? Never a dull moment for the standard when it can use cheap shots at it’s opposition.
Your link to the stats doesn’t work as well. So basically you’ve made a variety of claims but not backed them up with any evidence.
[try here. It's the Stats table builder, you can find the number of offences down to a hundred-odd sub-catagories. SP]
Evidence Hamish damn you eyes Sir !
Don’t you know that any stats that reflect poorly on the present government are lies.
The real question is where was John Key when all those thefts and car conversions were going on !
SP, why do you keep doing this?
Yet again, you make a valid argument about the facts and figures, and then you chuck a totally gratuitous self-destruct line in there along with it. A gift to those who don’t want to debate the issue. If they then seize upon your stupid comment, that’s nobody’s fault but yours. And another opportunity goes begging.
Try this in future: write the post, step away from it, read it again, and then ask yourself what you want people to discuss. Anything that distracts from the issue: delete. And if you can’t hear the alarm bells, ask someone who can.
gobs. the lines are there on purpose and with a mind to the consequences. And they’re not just rhetoric. I mean every word
Dewlaps. LOL. I actually had to google that one.
Being a tulip I didn’t know the man so I looked him up and he has them too.LLOL
Got them working now. Thanks!
in fact, the number is down and he’s hardly one to fret about rape when he’s good mates with a pornographer).
I love this line from a person that obviously supports a party that legislated to legalise prostitution. Afterall, pornography is just videotaped prostitution for the mass market.
Steve you’ll next be espousing a Clintonesque line like “I’ve watched pornography once but I didn’t touch myself”
HS. don’t be a dick, you’re better than this. Read the stats, read the Police analysis. It’s not me who’s lying, I’m just relaying the stats and telling you what the experts say.
Pete. Prostitution happened anyway, so the sensible question is ‘how can we make the best of an undesirable situation?’ decriminalising prostitution was the best way to help minimise the dangers to prostitutes. I support that, doesn’t mean I think prostitution is a good thing. You need to start thinking in terms other than black and white.
HS,
Probably buying and selling railway shares and lying about it while he was making a fast buck on his own shares and using his political position to help out mates. Ooh oops, who were caught insider trading and had to buy themselves out of the crapper with 20 million.
It’s called white collar crime. The difference with rich white men committing “white collar” crime and burglary is that the burglar goes to jail when caught and when you’re rich you get elected prime minister by idjiets like you so you can bamboozle some more.
[let's not get personal in our criticisms. That goes for me too. Sorry for before HS. SP]
Steve I’m all shades of grey and usually a little green on a Sunday morning
But I’d like to know how you link being a pornographer with being a rapist? Moreover how you link having a pornographer friend makes a person any less able to find rape repugnant?
Or were you just attempting a nice disgusting smear?
[being friends with a pornographer shows a disrespectful attitude to women at least. Many feminists argue porn promotes rape - so associating with someone like that while writing beat up stories abotu rape is pretty awful in my books. Of course, that's just one element of Farrar's misogyny and I have a problem with misogynists trying to make political capital off rape. SP]
I’m rubbish on stats, so I’ll ask the “idiots guide” question.
How do the reported/recorded crime stats (and any increase) stack up against the crime which is actually occuring as a whole? Eg, how do you distinguish between the capturing of the data (increase) and any actual lift in “real world” crime activity.
Does that question make sense, probably not – but strikes me that assessement against these sorts of stats must be a bl**dy nightmare unless you have a rock solid baseline.
Without disrespecting your request for decent debate what is personal about my response Steve. Ah, the “idjiet”, I get it.
HS, Is pretty personal too Steve.
“Birds of a feather” “I hope they don’t procreate”. Pretty insulting.
And he may not agree with my ideas about 911 but his constant dogwistling about paranoia is and hinting at conspiracies is also pretty nasty and stigmatising.
Unless you have hardcore proof, then violent crime has increased – harping on about someone who claims to be an expert saying that they know it all and its really just better reporting is just hot air and smoke and mirrors.
The cold facts are that there are more reported violent crimes – therefore, it is safe to assume that more violent crimes are happening. No matter what statements you throw up around this, you are just clutching at straws as it is the logical hypothesis.
How on earth can someone claim to know that while reporting has improved, actual violent crime has decreased – unless they know what happens in every single household in New Zealand?
Words of advice: never try getting a statistical or operational research type job – you would fail big time.
yeah. ev. I know. The request goes for all of us.
spot. victimisation surveys are one attempt to capture the actual crime rate. But it is important that we acknowledge there are three elements that could vary the recorded crime stats -
- actual crime level changes
- changes in reporting levels
- changes in recording practice (that happened between 2005 and 2006)
So, when we see a change we ask which of these could be the explanation. Have we seen an worsening of the conditions that lead to crime (more poverty, unemployment, fewer police etc)? That may mean the increase is due to an actual increase in crime. We haven’t seen those conditions worsen signficantly in the last year, in fact most of them have improved.
Have we seen an improvement in the conditions for reporting? Yes, the family violence campaign too place and we had a 30% increase in the reporting of family crime. Unlikely to be a coincidence. Note, you take out family violence and crime has dropped several percent. If crime was rising, it would be unlikely it would confined to this single type of crime.
Unless you have hardcore proof, then violent crime has increased – harping on about someone who claims to be an expert saying that they know it all and its really just better reporting is just hot air and smoke and mirrors
Yeah sean, what do those police “experts” know about crime eh. Not as much as you right?
Steve bro you need to get out more. Many women enjoy watching porno alone or with their partners. Sex toy sales are on the up and up. Quite frankly I find it rather disgusting that you suggest a woman that enjoys these things isn’t really a “woman” but some man toy. Of course there are problems within the industry – there always have been and always will be – much like any other industry.
Your perspective is just another form of misogyny – one which suggests that a woman is not capable of looking after herself or intelligent enough to select things that are pleasurable to her. Nice one…
Remember all the freaky people make up the beauty of the world.
[bro, I know plenty about the freaky side of things and I know well there are many empowered women who are into all kinds of things but I also know that the pornography industry is primarily disempowered women being used by men. SP]
There was Farrars mock umbrage today over the Brash emails saga with this comment
..The alleged theft was notified to Police in August 2005
The Police did not begin their investigation until September 2006 – 13 months later!
But Hootens comment put the formal complaint laid by Brash was September 2006. Of course Brash was making noises before this but didnt want to complain until he realised his political career was over.
Some stats about Farrars results from election campaigns he has had a formal role.
Wellington Regional Vice Chair- lost all seats except 1
Wellington Central- campaign manager, lost , even with dream candidate of ex mayor
r0b. Sean’s a genius he knows everything. No, he doesn’t need to look anything up, do any research, rely on the findings of experts – he already knows all the answers, he’s just waiting for the questions.
Being an ignorant conservative means never having to say ‘I don’t know’
r0b. Sean’s a genius he knows everything.
What a terrible burden that must be for him. And so misunderstood.
All fair points SP, guess one of the things I was trying to get at was (as you note) the coincidence vs causal relationships.
Never fails to dissapoint me where the cheap point scoring gets the coverage, or how far they lot of em will actually go to push a line they know really doesn’t stand scrutiny, but by which time it matters it’s “yesterdays fish n chips wrapping” etc.
Politics though huh, elections and desperation (to get in, and to stay) will always make for a good hunk of “conservative truth telling” and definitely cheapshot campaigning.
“Crime is down because poverty and the conditions that breed crime have been reduced.”
Labour also deserve credit for the Sentencing Act 2002 which has lead to longer sentences. Also since the Parole Act 2002 people are serving a greater proportion of their sentences.
This, together with increased police numbers has probably also helped reduce the overall crime rate.
Why does anyone think this will make any difference? The conservative movement abandoned truth a long time ago. Truth only matters to them when it accidentally agrees with them. Otherwise they don’t care about it. That’s what happens with a faith-based (in the broad sense) political movement.
Hell, I remember the Herald once having a headline about the increase in crime over an article that described the decrease in crime. Words start to lose their meanings when this becomes prevalent.
“That’s what happens with a faith-based (in the broad sense) political movement.”
I thought a conservative was by nature skeptical & wanted to see evidence before making changes?
“I thought a conservative was by nature skeptical & wanted to see evidence before making changes?”
Would that it were still so. I actually liked those people, since you could at least talk to them and they had some sense of shame. I guess there are still some of them left, but today’s self-appointed “conservatives” are a misnomer. They espouse what seems to be a radical faith-based politics driven by some sort of primal rage against “socialists” or “liberals” (where those words lack their customary meaning).
They’re like the reporters from 1984: “The chocolate ration has been increased this week from 25 grams to 20 grams. All praise Big Brother!”
Captcha: Casual reports.
I can never understand why Farrar hangs out with Slater He would garner a modicum of respect from me he didn’t hang out with that nasty misogynist pornographer.
They say You can judge a man by the company he keeps.
And I suppose it would be tiresomely technical of me to point out that this report uses absolute numbers… uncorrected for population increase.
Common boys – leave my mates alone. Or are you going to have a wack at me for putting up pics of naked men bums?
I can’t see how you can support legislation decriminalising prostitution and yet get rabid about porn.
There is a big range of porn from erotica – which is what most people tolerate to the hard ass stuff I had to put up with for four years in a medium security jail.
The world is not black and white boys its many hues of grey.
BTW – Farrars right about the stats, thats why its called right wing politics we tend to be, well right. And at the moment you guys are being left in the dust..
The truth is our lovely country is less safe than it once was.
So instead of trying to defend the stats, which are quitefrankly appalling, think about the one thing that can be done to help to make it a little bit safer and do us a favour and blog about that…
Ben R
Nope, a conservative is someone who wants things to stay the same because they’re too terrified of change.
RedLogix:
Corrected for population increase – crime has decreased.
The truth is our lovely country is less safe than it once was.
More likely:
1. You know more about life than you did once.
2. You’ve become more risk-averse than you were when you were young.
3. As a result your perceptions about ‘safety’ have changed.
The truth is complex. NZ has always had a dark violent underbelly; but mostly it was confined and hidden away from middle-class sensibilities. Our mean streets were always.. well mean.
Two things have changed. We are less tolerant of violence than we once were; while at the same time P has changed our crime/drug underworld from sad and thuggish… to freaky and brutal.
think about the one thing that can be done to help to make it a little bit safer and do us a favour and blog about that
What exactly do you have in mind?
ha ha, putting aside the actual topic, this is a bwilliant example of pots and kettles SP.
But I gotta say that on average Farrar’s threads and topics are more balanced, bipartisan (where appropriate) and researched than your own by a country mile. And he gives kudos to the left where deserved etc too.
Re this actual topic, it seems he may have stepped a bit too far in his interpretations and conclusions, but that is not common imo.