Written By: - Date published: 4:58 pm, October 1st, 2008 - 136 comments
Categories: crime, dpf -
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David Farrar really is a disgusting person at times. He writes that we shouldn’t look at overall crime rates (although he made a big fuss when the overall recorded crime rate went up because of changes in recording practice in 2006). Instead we should just look at violent crime, after all “having 1,000 less [sic] cannabis crimes and 500 more rapes is a net decrease in crime, but would be a worrying trend”. He then goes on to act all shocked over the recorded violent crime stats. First, he’s trying to make you think there are more rapes (in fact, the number is down and he’s hardly one to fret about rape when he’s good mates with a pornographer). Secondly, this professional statistician is deliberately trying to mislead you regarding the change in the crime stats. He knows that the explanation from the professionals is reporting of domestic crime is up but he hopes you don’t.
Crime is down because poverty and the conditions that breed crime have been reduced. At the same time, reporting of crimes is up. Thefts, car thefts, and burglaries (together, the largest group of crimes) have halved in the last ten years. Homicides are down. In fact, all classes of crime are down except two. Recorded violent crime is up because reporting is up. Recorded property damage offences have climbed in the last three years thanks to the moral panic over tagging. But those rises are attributed (not by me, by the Police) to higher reporting.
Farrar needs to misrepresent the statistics to create the impression of a wave of crime where there is none. It’s all part of National’s ‘New Zealand sucks’ campaign. It disrespects his readers and the victims of crime. Disgusting.
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Scoopit!
Any of you losers that are saying that actual crime has decreased in relative terms to population, are by extension saying that this crime is alright. This may well be true that it has decreased relatively, however on the whole violent crimes are on the increase, and probably more so in the areas of society, where the population, is not increasing as proportionately as the crime.
clinton, I can only hope that next time you are out of your house, some asshole comes round and steals everything you own. Being a loser socialist though, you probably don’t own anything, as you’ve never got off your pimply ass to actually earn a respectable living and get ahead.
Having been the victim of two significant crimes this year, this is right now a hot issue for me. Having lived in the same place for a long time and not had any crime ever, for me personally it has increased tremendously.
And worse still, I had one of your horrible ilk tell me recently that one of these crimes was ok, as these “down and outs” “need these chances to get ahead”.
I loathe, actually hate, anyone who is defending the current “crime wave” we are having in this country. If I ran into you smith, I would perpetrate some of mine own crime on you, for good measure.
Horrible little puke. Keep defending the undefensible.
IrishBill: that’s a ban for life and I’ll be asking Steve if he wants to lay a complaint with your ISP for threatening him.
SP that was the most over the top response I have read on the blogosphere. I have enjoed reading your posts because they challenge my political opinions. I rarely agree with them but I understand where you are coming from.
I have no idea where you are coming from with this garbage though. It simply shows an irrational hatred towards those on the right.
How can you now pretend to hold the moral high ground over people like Whale when you write deeply offensive comments like “and he’s hardly one to fret about rape when he’s good mates with a pornographer” DPF is justifiably offended by this and feels he has been defamed.
I am worried about how wound up and angry you will get in the very probable event that the right sweeps into power in a few weeks time. My suggestion is breath, relax and try to get rid of this hate you have built up inside you. The right are Kiwi’s as well. They aren’t evil. Don’t be afraid.
burt,
Hee!
This is why I hang out in the comments threads brilliance!
Travellerv sais “And he may not agree with my ideas about 911…”
Ahhh, the delights of being obsessed with innumerable conspiracy theories and the desire to ram them down on others.
Your imagination knows no bounds Dutch Einstein.
Good on ya SP! About time more people took Farrar to task. For too long now he’s been viewed as independent, even as an independent political commentator (which I consider a bit of a joke).
So it’s OK to adjust the crime rates by allowing for annual population growth, but for some reason this method doesn’t extend to the road toll ? Now what was that again ?
“being friends with a pornographer shows a disrespectful attitude to women at least.”
What happens if he only shot gay pron ? Would that be disrespectful to woman too or is that a double standard ?
Hey Santi,
vto, HS, Lucas and Billy want you to hang with them. They are starting a club. The “lets keep our fingers in our ears and say,” lalala, I can’t hear you” club.
Feel free to ignore my comments if you don’t like them.
In the mean time you are about to vote for John Key a proven liar who can’t stop gambling and who was the managing director of the debt (bonds and derivatives) for Merrill Lynch. The very products now blowing up the Western financial world. Sucker.
travellerev stop attacking me without justification or evidence or this will all end in a very nasty way.
ffs, if you were a rightie you would have been banned some time ago. this is total crap.
vto, HS, Lucas and Billy want you to hang with them.
What the crazy? I havent said boo to you in ages…. its proving good for my sanity levels.
Eve… you always spout on about how many people “read” your blog. With the amount of link whoring you do, anyone could get as many hits as you do. What probably counts more is how many people comment and engage with you on your “blog”, from my visits there (still washing my computer screen from the coffee spouting) the general trend is for there to be a grand total of zero comments.
Eve, as much as you would like for me, HS, VTO etc etc to fit your picture of us all being angry, middle class, middle age white males… we are not (well at least I am not). I am a young, well educated white male just starting out in this world. I work part time for my self and part time for someone else and the other part of my time I volunteer at my local church. I am by no means angry at the world or anyone, infact I just got married this year so am fairly happy with life and the world in general. Yes I am white though… oh well, can’t win them all a?
vto,
Was that a threat?
I have never pre-emptively attacked you, it was you who started to ridicule me for my views and you did so in a patronising, misogynist way. In fact I never called you personally patronising nor misogynist until you took sides in a confrontation I had with I think HS.
If you do that than don’t expect me to take it lying down.
Evidence? What do I accuse you off that would justify you asking me for evidence.
I only give you my view on you. My opinion. You may not like it but there you have it.
Feel free not to react to my comments and ignore them. I don’t ask you for anything but if you comment expect a reaction.
If you can’t stand the heat I suggest you get out of the kitchen mate.
I react very badly to threats and bullying.
Lucas,
Congrats with your wedding. Feel free to keep on ignoring me, it proved quit pleasant for me too.
I don’t invite comments to my blog although people seem to do it more.
Added to that a couple of sites are pinging so the information clearly means something to those people as they want to spread it.
Shut the fuck up travellerev, I have never ridiculed your views. I actuallyy think they have some substance.
You attacked – first white middle class males and then me.
You have still provided no proof for any of your allegations.
Take that threat any way you want you racist sexist creep.
Is anyone else getting really sick of eve’s long-running personal battles?
Aye
MP
Yep. But she’s not the sole person to blame. Lot’s of commenters go at her with boring, repetitive responses, with equally predictable results.
yawns all round on mulitiple threads, all at the same time.
They should all just quit it, and learn ignore each other. For the rest of our sakes if not their own.
Agreed, apologies to you others. I just don’t can’t stand hollow unjustified abuse.
Anyway, back to the boondoxx for me today for a few more daze. Chase them wee fishes and get some sanity back. Or not.
MP
Go play with the other boys will you.
No vto I called HS a typical middle class Pakeha and you identified with him and joined the fray telling me you were a typical class Pakeha and proud of it and than you told me to get fucked. Which was echoed by T-rex.
Telling me to shut up is not a good look. Freedom of speech and all that. Feel free to ignore me.
But on a positive note I seem to be on good footing with the Rex at the moment. So let me ask you which of my views you think have some merit.
“In fact I never called you personally patronising nor misogynist until you took sides in a confrontation I had with I think HS.”
Ahhhhhh.
Says it all really.
Matt – Yes. As I said on the other side, it’s embarrassing. I’m sure the mods feel the same way. It’s just harder to kick someone who’s on your side (at least in vague, general ideology terms).
“MP
Go play with the other boys will you.”
This would be an example of the “abuse by provocation” you’re referring to PB?
As she so wonderfully illustrated above – all that’s actually required is for someone to disagree.
trav etc. please cool it.
I recommend 08wire’s post on this debate. He does fair and dispassionate much better than I.
And this is my definitive comment on my reference to Farrar’s friendship with Slater the pornographer:
“I admit I hit the line and I did it intentionally. It seriously pisses me off to see a creep try to make political capital out of rape victims and victims of other crimes. Especially when the body of evidence is that it was the policies that he supports from the 1990s that pushed up crime, whereas the full employment polices since 1999 have been instrumental in giving young men constructive activities and a sense of belonging, thereby bringing down crime (and suicide).
To people like Farrar this is all just a game. They don’t actually care about finding ways to bring down crime (or improve living standards for the poor in other ways). If they did care, they wouldn’t misrepresent the stats.
I was prepared to burn a bit of my personal reputation for analysis to call them on it.”
“But on a positive note I seem to be on good footing with the Rex at the moment.”
We’ve our ups and downs I think it’s probably fair to say
Just don’t get so mad when you can’t get people to think like you.
Clinton does your pomposity and singular occularity know no bounds ?
“If they did care, they wouldn’t misrepresent the stats.”
Or endorse policies which have been proven to worsen the situation.
re: The homicide stats you had for Auckland in the other post on the topic though, there is a bit of an upward trend there. In mean it’s still no worse than it was at the end of the 90′s, but after a slump early at the start of the decade it’s been rising back up again. (Retracted – went back and reread the point about small numbers: 21 a year is pretty tricky to draw any useful conclusion from considering how few are actually “random acts of violence”)
That said, I don’t think you made enough of the increased rate of resolution. It’s been steadily increasing for some time, there’s not just a step change when those new cops came on board. Food for thought for those who tireless b*tch out our police force – I can’t be bothered going back to that page of stats to check, but wasn’t the resolution rate up around 85%?
Good job, cops.
MP
Go play with the other boys will you.
No vto, I called HS a typical middle class male Pakeha and you identified with him and joined the fray telling me you were a typical middle class male Pakeha and proud of it and than you told me to get fucked. Which was echoed by T-rex.
Telling me to shut up is not a good look. Freedom of speech and all that. Feel free to ignore me.
But on a positive note I seem to be on good footing with the Rex at the moment. So let me ask you which of my views you think have some merit and see if we can get this back on track in a more positive way.
I’ll start with ignoring the insult “racist sexist creep” how about that for a positive step.
Hello guys,
Why is it with you guys that you always take one of the sides and always that of the male.
All males against one woman for standing up for herself. You clearly aren’t used to that.
Thanks Pascals bookie for pointing the role of the others out.
I’ve invited each and every one of them to ignore because that is just fine with me but I will not be bullied into silence because I say things they do not want to hear.
And as for the ongoing “personal” stuff. This site only gets higher ratings if treats go on longer and since the only people reading these threads who can’t stop reading them while the rest move on to newer and better threats the moderators are probably happy to let it go on for a bit. LOL.
Especially since I do comment pertinent to threads as well and some people actually do want the information I give as I always link to background info.
was that a copy and past re-mix of your previous comments?
Thanks for the congrats on the wedding… was a beautiful day with a beautiful wife. Clever thing was having the wedding on the 29th of February!
hi T-rex,
I don’t want people to think like me. In fact I invite people not to believe me and do their own research. Please, Please don’t believe me or anyone and do your own research and make up your own mind. That is my advise.
I just present the facts as I see them and they differ vastly from theirs which invites their ridicule and insults.
Whereas I have to say that other than the 911 issue I seem to be seeing eye to eye with you on a lot of issues.
And to get back to the thread compared to the Netherlands this country is crime free. I’m not suggesting that those who are hurt in violent attacks or killed don’t exist and their pain should be ignored but the amount of murders and burglaries and white collar and real estate fraud are massive compared with here.
Nobody can leave their doors unlocked anytime of the day or night, You have to lock your bicycle to Rain pipes with at least three chains and forget about leaving your car radio in your car. And this goes for cities as well as rural areas.
I saw that Holland was on the 7th place of the corruption scale and I’m sad to say I’m not surprised.
The year I left Holland there were 6 broad day Mafia style executions of Real estate agents in streets with children running around alone. One of them being the richest guy in Holland.
Russian mobsters have taken over in many branches of business after the wall came down and I’ve only seen it get worse.
The only thing I found disconcerting when I arrived here was the rape case against those three cops.
And in the three years I’ve been here I’ve seen every major case cracked in remarkably short times where as in the case of the real estate murders they are still investigating in Holland so that’s saying something about the quality of the policing here I reckon.
SP: “I was prepared to burn a bit of my personal reputation for analysis to call them on it.’
Someone needs to call them on it, and while I’m not sure of your method, I do admire your motive.
Those who are self righteously attacking SP on this one would do well to direct their energies to cleaning up the sewer that is the Kiwiblog comments section. The log on your own eye eh?
Steve … I don’t know how this can be explained more clearly.
Your post makes an explicit link between being friends with a pornographer and not caring about rape.
You do not mention Farrar’s history on this issue.
You do not offer any elaboration.
Are we supposed to pat you on the back for the noble sacrifice of your “reputation” just to get off a cheap shot which shreds the credibility of what would otherwise be a really important post?
Are we supposed to be impressed that you think it’s okay to make statements and assumptions about people’s beliefs based on nothing more (and again, this is your post, SP, you wrote it, you chose not to elaborate or provide supporting details) than who they are friends with? Because that is what you did in this post. The problem isn’t Farrar’s personal beliefs. It’s what you have said about them and based your statements on.
Aside from Farrar’s motivations for pushing his version of the statistics, the fact is that violent crimes have increased under Labour (even as a per-1000 people ratio) and significantly in the past year in some regions. Arguing that it hasn’t is displaying the same sort of blindness that Farrar is accused of by many here.
Disregarding any personal opinion on it, the statistics show violent crime – the one’s which keep people awake at night and have the greatest personal/family effects – is still on the increase. And markedly so in the areas targeted as being the most impoverished.
Matty K, if you read the original post at all, you clearly didn’t understand it.
QoT, please get your self righteous ass on over to Kiwiblog. There is plenty of work for you there.
Matty: As the police have acknowledged, the majority of violent crime probably doesn’t get reported. The usual estimates are that only about a third gets reported because it happens inside the domestic disputes. Over the last few years they have run a active policy and advertising campaign to increase the rate of reporting.
It appears to be working. Consequently the reported violence stats have been increasing. If you look at the violent crimes that always gets reported like murder, they have remained static or reduced when you look at them over a few years. Read the 08wire analysis http://08wire.org/2008/10/02/farrar-vs-the-standard-on-massaging-crime-statistics/
DPF just ignored all of that because it didn’t fit the picture he wished to portray.
I said it a thousand times, walk thru Christchurch at night during any day of the week, and you will see what effect a soft approach to crime has.
I don’t see what your problem is Brett as I said earlier I feel perfectly safe in Christchurch. Maybe you’re just paranoid Brett. This government has been much harder on crime than the last government. Its increased sentences to ridiculous levels and given a stupid amount power to the police. What more do you want, a police state?
Eve, just pointing out that a majority of what you say seems to be abuse. Here’s what I’ve seen so far over the last few months:
You will post and link to your blog and articles – all very well and I’m sure many people have popped over to read it and check out the links you suggest (as have I, on several occassions).
Then someone will make a cheap jibe, along the lines of ‘conspiracy theorist’, or some unimaginitave variant.
You generally take the bait and run a mile, but instead of attacking them for being small-minded etc, it’s more of an attack against entire sections of society, which irks people who might fit into the section of society you’re attacking, but haven’t said a single bad thing against you.
For example, there are a fair few white males, aged 20-40 here, if my presumption is correct. Whether I got the wrong end of the stick or not, it seems to me that several times you’ve attacked that group wholesale, because of one person. As evidenced above, that annoys people.
If I can make a request, it would be that you refrain from attacking groups or making assumptions about people – the effects of it are plain to see. The latest is a classic – we’re all attacking you because you’re female, apparently.
I was criticising you because I’m sick of your long-running personal battles – what has that got to do with you being female? Are you implying only females are that annoying? If so, you’re being a bit sexist, towards your own lot.
I’d also be happy if people stopped baiting you, though those who do aren’t likely to listen to me. You have the option of ignoring them though – a lengthy personal attack isn’t exactly likely to change their views!
The actual rate of recorded crime depends on policing methods which vary between districts.
In Auckland police are less likely to prosecute people for minor crimes when they are not currently considered a risk. They perfer warnings but they are now finding that by doing this people are starting to try their luck with more serious crime. What the lack of reporting is doing is lowering the rate of crime when its actually not lowering at all, its increasing.
In Christchurch police take a tougher approach with minor offences. They target the so called gateway crime to get the young offenders into the system in an attempt to ensure they recieve the help they need.
The result is the Christchurch crime rate is accurate. The Auckland crime rate is about 2% lower than it should be in the reported statistic.
For the people that think that Farrar has genuine concern about rape as a politcal issue, please show me where he’s written about this. Of course most men care at some level about rape, but we’re talking about a political context here.
Steve, thanks for making visible the connection between rape and pornography, even in a small way. It’s problematic that it was said in passing, because it’s brought out a large amount of comment negating the connection, by people who don’t understand what the connection even is. But it’s good that it was said, there will women who appreciate that.
all men are rapists
Whoever brought that up as a way of writing off feminist thought, I suggest you go and look up the provenance of that quote and see what it really means.