I’m not usually one to comment on individual polls as I can’t see that a single poll means much. Given that each of our media outlets only seeks to poll once every blue moon, their data isn’t great. In fact the only poll that is frequent enough to get useful information is the one not sponsored by any of our media – the Roy Morgan.
Fresh from being the most accurate at the Aussie election (as they frequently are here too), they’ve got their latest NZ poll out.
About 3 polls ago there was a rogue one, where National sky-rocketed, Labour & Greens sank, and woe was betide. But one poll should not a story make. Grab a pinch of salt with every one.
Since then we’ve well and truly returned to trend. National are declining – now down to 41%. Labour (slowly!) increasing – now up to 32.5%. Greens have been largely flat, but up quite a bit over the last 3 polls – 15%. Yes that’s right 47.5% to 41%. Leading to Morgan’s conclusion:
If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.
A leaderless Labour with Greens help would apparently defeat John Key.
On top of that undecideds are up to 6% – a high. It’s quite likely that a lot of undecideds are people who voted National who are now unhappy with the government, but can’t quite go as far as voting for someone else – yet. NZ First are at 6.5%, so may yet have a significant part to play.
So Cunliffe or Robertson – whoever wins – they’ll be starting from a good spot.