Written By: - Date published: 2:11 pm, January 29th, 2008 - 110 comments
Categories: crime, same old national, spin -
Tags: crime, same old national, spin
So this is John Key’s ambition: throwing troubled teens in boot camp, beating up on beneficiaries and criminalising our children. I’ve only had a quick read through the speech in my lunch break so it’s possible I’ve got this wrong, but I get the distinct impression that Key has made a major strategic error here.
When I first heard murmurings about Key planning a ‘state of the nation’ speech I assumed he’d be running another policy-light pitch at middle New Zealand, big on aspirational rhetoric and with just enough vague policy detail to keep the critics happy. Housing affordability was an obvious topic that came to mind.
That he instead chose the risky (and I’d argue strategically pointless) option of pandering to the base with National’s traditional tough on crime message is puzzling. Sure, it’ll get the talkback crowd going, rile up the Kiwiblog Right and possibly even convince a few blue collar workers to vote against their economic interests, but it won’t go down well at all with the moderate centrists that Key has worked so hard to woo over the last year.
Women in particular will be turned off by coverage like this:
Because couched behind this morning’s strategically leaked proposals about education and training National has revealed its hard right core for all to see. As No Right Turn points out:
this is the same old National Party: divisive, punitive, vicious, and bullying those unable to defend themselves. And I’m glad Key has finally made it clear to the public.
This is precisely the face National has been trying so hard to hide from the public over the last year, and so far the centrist game seems to have worked for them. My opinion? John should have stuck with the smile and the nice haircut.
UPDATE: Kiwiblogblog has done a good analysis of the speech here.
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EWS – this was from a judge that generally supported Key’s ideas:
“Apprehensions for youth offenders as a whole is declining but a small group of 750 to 1000 young boys are offending more violently,” Judge Becroft said.
Giving some recent examples of nasty incidents only shows that agenda-driven propaganda is working on you – if you want to make a rational analysis you need to look at longer term trends than last weekend’s headlines. This principal Youth Court judge is saying the numbers of criminals is falling.
Fear is merely being used here based upon a spate of murders – do you want policy based upon fear, or a reflection of what is going on in society? Fear can be used in many ways – check out the US Patriot Act and Homeland Security Act for stirling examples. I don’t want that kind of fearmongering to dictate politics in New Zealand.
Michele – you’re right, it is a failure of government to a certain extent. Further reducing the government’s ability to assist poor families will only exacerbate the situation. Intervention to reduce poverty, and breaking the cycle will help – turfing people out of state houses and cutting their benefits (pseudonymous with small gummint right?) won’t unless you plan to starve “the scrotes” to death or encourage them to commit more crime.
Santi, the majority of New Zealanders who work in the private sector are employed in medium or large businesses and a large number of those are owned by overseas interests. We have had lifts in productivity before and we have seen massive profits in the last decade including several billions of dollars a year in the banking sector alone. But we have not seen a major increase in wages. When you talk about productivity as the answer to higher wages you are espousing trickle-down theory. That is you are claiming that increased productivity will mean increased profits which, in turn, will mean increased wages. We have had significantly increased profits but not wages, further increasing profits will not change this. Trickledown does not work in practice.
As far as foreign investment goes, we are currently the third best country for ease of business. This can be seen by the vast amount of foreign investment we have in this country. And the vast amount of money that investment takes out every year in profit.
Tane,
Actually, you’re wrong.
For full-time workers (which is most people) the MEDIAN effective (taking into account tax and inflation) take-home pay has grown less under Labour than National in 1990s.
Moreover, the supposed ‘social dividend’ has not been returned.
But you’re right, we’re off topic – but you’re still wrong.
Also Santi, I agree with you about shifting income tax thresholds (though that’s a pretty minor fix) but not about taxcuts. We’d need a 20% tax cut to even come close to matching net wages in Australia and we’d still be a lot poorer than them counting the user-pays public service charges such a tax cut would require.
“My ambition would be to build a society where our young people don’t get into serious trouble in the first place; where our young people are not alienated and are not dislocated from their fathers and families.”
Tony, your ambition is laudable but it’s also utopia. It hasn’t happenned anywhere on Earth because by nature human beings are difficult entities, and not two of us are equal.
That’s why any measures towards improving the economy and a complete overhaul of the welfare state are mandatory steps.
EWS, have another read of the post. I used nominal median wage in the first graph, then adjusted the stats for both inflation and taxation in the second (and even excluded the value of WFF and improved social services). National still came out in second place.
The fact is wages are still growing faster under Labour than they ever did under National.
“My ambition would be to build a society where our young people don’t get into serious trouble in the first place; where our young people are not alienated and are not dislocated from their fathers and families”.
Well said Tony Milne and I share your ambition .This is more ambulance at bottom of hill stuff again I’m afraid. We must strike at the core of issues and address the huge problems caused for society by family breakdowns, estrangement and the new age scourge of fatherlessness.
Tane, I guess the difference is that you haven’t used full time workers? I don’t know but I guess if you’re including part-time workers then of course the median will be lower. this however, is hardly a good conmparison.
Anyway, that’s it for me. To nice to be indoors now.
Go Eastern Wellington.
So some blue collar workers may vote against their financial interests. What a load of crap Im a sraypainter and pay the top tax rate,pay the highest interest rates in the developed world and watch family and friends move to Australia where the population is not treated like a cash cow for socialist propagander.Most blue collar folk dissagree with the continual interference in our lives,I wont be told how to bring up my kids by this nannystate. One thing is for sure the barstards wont force me out of my country. Its time to stand up for your selves and stop being so dependent on this government.
the last natoinal govt came in on a programme of self responsibility, self regulation and civil society. all a lot of hogwash and now we are paying for it big time a decade later with a totally infantilised population with nothing else on their minds except themselves their harley davidsons and their big bore bums and racial prjudice and bogotry…civil society natoinal style!
Dale – you don’t pay the highest tax rates in the developed world – the highest tax bracket in Australia, for example, is higher than the highest one here.
Dale, I trained in a trade when I was much younger. I watched the many people I know in the trades leaving NZ in the nineties as work dried up. Now they are coming back and often have more work than they can do. Admittedly my experience is in the building trade but the feeling I get is that there’s a lot more money around for all tradespeople. I don’t know if you were working as a spraypainter in the 90′s but if you were I’d be interested to know if you’ve noticed any differences.
Tane said: “That he instead chose the risky (and I’d argue strategically pointless) option of pandering to the base with National’s traditional tough on crime message is puzzling”
My god, you think getting tough on youth crime is “pointless”???
One just has to have a look at the front page of any paper to see just how out of control youth crime has become under Labour.
Let’s go with the Herald online:
North Shore bashings accused denied bail
One of five teenagers charged over a series of violent attacks on the North Shore has been denied bail…
14-year-old in court over Tokoroa murder
There were emotional scenes in the Rotorua Youth Court this morning as a 14-year-old fronted on a murder…
Krishna murder accused appears in court
A 16-year-old boy charged with the murdering a 22-year-old man in a Manurewa dairy has appeared in the Manukau Youth Court.
etc, etc, etc.
And that was just today. This doesn’t mention the hundreds of people assaulted, many seriously, every week in this country. The fact that it’s hard to walk down a public street in most of our cities without being inundated with youth-gang graffiti. The list goes on and on and on and on.
Yet you categorise someone saying “hey, enough’s enough. Let’s do something about it” as “pointless”. Well, Wayne, I can tell you with much certainty that you and your Labour backers are well and truly out of touch with reality (and public opinion) if you honestly think that’s the case.
Totally unbelievable.
Sam I said the highest intrerest rates. And to pay the highest tax rate in Australia you have to be earning about 3 times what I earn.
oops bigotry not bogotry but as the revealed natoinal party policy is so much crpa it shoudl be flushed down the bog
My god, you think getting tough on youth crime is “pointless”???
I said the choice of topic was strategically pointless. If you think John Key chose youth crime today because he cares about it deeply then you’re only kidding yourself. Politicians of all stripes engage in extensive polling and focus group testing to decide their key issues and test their messages. There will be a strategy behind this, I just don’t think it’s a very good one.
One just has to have a look at the front page of any paper to see just how out of control youth crime has become under Labour.
I prefer to use stats rather than the front page of the paper. Stats tell us what’s really happening, the paper tells us selective information that an editor thinks will sell newspapers.
Tane,
How can anyone discuss policies intelligently, when you distort Key’s speech? How exactly is he “beating up on beneficiaries”?
One of the reasons Barack Obama is appealing to voters, is that he doesn’t try to demonise his opponents – he even acknowledges they may have good ideas.
There is no dispute that there is a problem with youth gangs & increasing random violent assaults.
Shouldn’t there be something in place for school leavers on welfare to give them something productive to do – something to aim for?
Yes Bill I was working in the trade in the 90′s and when the Nats brought in the employment contracts act I was gutted. So I went truck driving for the same money.In 99 I voted for Labour after hearing Helen say no new taxes and a return to the old working policies.I have’nt seen that happen ,but then upon reflection it would be a great disservice to reinstate the rules of the past,if we want to compete with the rest of the world.But I strongly object to being used as a tax cash cow.And I havent known anyone who has come back to NZ from Aussie cause they would be better off.
It is most encouraging that the Principal Youth Court Judge Andrew Beecroft would support Mr Key’s comments.
Hey Dale, I’m pretty sure Labour was promising another tax bracket before they were voted in (I know the Alliance had an 8 tier policy – which I’m in favour of). The real issue is not taxes because a sustainable tax cut is only going to be a few dollars a week for most people. The issue is wages.
At the moment the two largest banks in New Zealand are shifting $2bn in profits across the ditch every year. The telcos another $1bn , the two main media outlets another $3-4 hundred million and the list goes on. Some of this profit needs to go into paying New Zealanders a decent wage. We are, after all, the people who pay for the bank/phone/advertising and work to make sure these businesses profit. But this won’t happen without the government stepping in and they don’t want to because they are scared (although the Alliances KiwiBank idea was a bloody good one).
I see you’re familiar with the ECA from hard experience. So am I. I don’t think for a second National won’t take us back to that.
And you still aren’t paying as much tax here as you would in Australia.
http://www.oecd.org/vgn/images/portal/cit_731/52/32/36366632TaxingWages_Chart_1_1.jpg
http://www.oecd.org/vgn/images/portal/cit_731/51/55/36366659TaxingWages_Chart_1_2.jpg
This is from the 2002 Ministerial Taskforce on Youth Offending http://www.justice.govt.nz/pubs/reports/2002/youth-offending-strategy/ministerial-report/section-2.html
“Army Initiatives
The Taskforce wants the youth justice sector to be able to benefit more from the resources and programmes provided by the Army. It believes that the skills and disciplines promoted by the Army have the potential to have a beneficial impact on youth offending.
The Army has examined how its current programmes could be better targeted towards young offenders and has identified two programmes, the Limited Services Volunteer Scheme and Youth Life Skills, that could be developed further to meet the needs of ‘at risk’ youth.
The Limited Service Volunteers (LSV) scheme was primarily designed as an employment programme, but is known to have positive effects on behaviour and offending patterns. This programme is run in conjunction with the Ministry of Social Development. Burnham Camp in Christchurch has the capacity to handle up to 1704 LSV trainees per year based on six residential courses, each of six weeks, with 284 trainees on each course.
Youth Life Skills (YLS) courses specifically target 14 to 18 year olds and provide training in skills designed to improve a person’s integration with the community. The Army could provide 75 YLS residential courses per annum, each of five days duration with 20 students on each course for a total of 1500 students per annum. Fifty of these courses would be conducted in the North Island and 25 in the South Island.”
I found it particularly offensive that he politicised Sir Ed the way he did. Bad form!
I made some comments about Labour’s fantastic economic management, and National’s spin but no substance on the matter here: http://mariavontrapp.blogspot.com/2008/01/its-economy-stupid.html
John Key has just been on Close-up- and he was excellent – obvious he has had media training and has improved and learnt how to do a policy launch. HE WAS CLEAR, CONCISE AND MADE SENSE.
This will appeal to the masses and already he has set the agenda – Clark can only but cry into her organic Hubbards muslie –
I expect to see another lift in the polls as a result of this. Good policy, priced and with an action plan. And importantly – very Prime Ministerial.
Game on socialists.
Hey, MVT – welcome back! I’m so chuffed, I’ll even overlook your site promoting Labour…
Tane
Perhaps you would care to explain why that apparent stronghold of Teh Party – the Counties Manakau police district – has the worst violent crime stats in the country? Obviously whatever Labour thinks it is doing, isn’t working. It’s all very well for the middle class liberal standardistas to blather on about how Key has made a strategic blunder, but I doubt your values are shared by many in South Auckland who live in fear daily.
Judge Beecrof is a nutter…bet he has the coplete set of rumpole and watches one every night! the Judiciciary has become as infantilised as the proletariat
Judge Beecroft is not a nutter.Have you looked in the mirror lately?
While the Standardistas beat up Key’s policy here, Annette King says Key is just stealing labour policies and wrapping them in a blue ribbon. The standard mob really should consult the 9th floor BEFORE posting, it would save so much confusion and embarrassment. Labour = Good. National = Bad. It’s all getting rather hollow.
Did you think Concerned of Tawa that maybe a lot of people on the left aren’t happy with Labour’s criminal justice policies and think they’re too right wing?
Sigh…….. I will try that comment again and hope it takes .
Sam Dixon, you need to get new material. Your comment to Dale at around 5p.m. was typical twist and shout. Yes Oz has a higher tax rate, but it does not cut in at such a low amount as ours.
Dale is typical of many kiwis I come into contact with. All struggling but caught by cullens rich prick tax.
Sam, You need to bang yourself against a wall for a bit until you’re less rubbish.
James
You think that the family of Shayne Pita Walker in Tokoroa were Labour voters last election?
Reckon they might think Labour’s criminal justice policies are too right wing now that there son has been stabbed to death, allegedly by a 14 year old, who I bet has a lengthly ‘youth justice’ history?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10489369
hah…roused someone out of their torpor…dont bet on it lawyer dude…this country has been copletely infantilised and so pervasive are the effects that only a totalitarian autarky could turn it around.
Double – of course the families of murder victims would like tougher sentencing but I’d rather our criminal justice policies were based on reason and evidence than revenge. Individual cases are tragic but they don’t make good public policy.
James,
That’s true that evidence should be relied on, not emotion. Consider Steven Levitt’s paper, which shows the effectiveness of custodial sentencing on reducing crime figures:
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittTheEffectOfPrison1996.pdf