Written By: - Date published: 5:28 pm, July 31st, 2010 - 145 comments
Categories: election 2011, labour, phil goff, Politics -
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Chris Carter is wrong. Labour can win the next election led by Phil Goff. The objective conditions make it possible, and there is enough time. That’s true even if Key calls an early election to gain the financial benefits of National’s new electoral law, as some have predicted on this site.
First the objective conditions. The media is fixated on the polls, understandably as they have stayed very positive for National for the last two years. Much of that has been built on the combination of John Key’s easy confidence matching New Zealanders’ desire for a quick recovery from the global financial crisis. But the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day, which is at least a year away. Economic growth prospects are now beginning to show serious signs of slippage, with consumer confidence polls leading economists to refer to a shift in the pace of future growth from a canter to a trot. If it slows to a walk, or worse if there are signs that the horse is lame, even John Key’s considerable public relations skills will not be enough to hold National’s numbers up.
This is all the more so as it is increasingly clear that Key’s goal of matching Australia by 2025, made so much of while in opposition and repeated in government, is nothing more than a cynical mirage. Bill English has reverted to classic old-style small-government Toryism. Gerry Brownlee and economic development have been revealed to be oxymoronic. The cycleway is a goat track, and Party central should rightly be called VIP central, somewhere for Murray McCully to buy expensive wine on the taxpayer’s account. Everybody else is worried about their future security and how to pay the bills on their own pay.
Secondly there is time, plenty of time. One of the more fatal delusions in politics as in life is that what goes up stays up, and that what stays up stays up forever. New Zealand Labour’s experience in 2002 and Australian Labor’s experience in 2010 both show how quickly things can change in the context of an election campaign, when voters concentrate their minds on the choices available and the issues on their minds.
Phil Goff doesn’t have to work any harder to win. That’s not his problem; his work ethic is legendary. But he does have to work smarter. As others on this site have said, National doesn’t have a plan, and that is true. But it also raises the question, what is Labour’s plan? There are lots of voters in New Zealand who are desperate not to see the continuation of the destructive path back to the 1980′s taken by the National-ACT government, but don’t yet see a convincing alternative from Labour. Phil Goff needs to set out a clear and convincing economic plan. The elements of it are there already; his willingness to consider alternatives to the monetarist straitjacket of the 1980′s was courageous and necessary. It needs to be expanded and developed, and in David Cunliffe and David Parker he has more than sufficient firepower willing and able to assist and explain.
Phil Goff also needs a more effective political strategy. It is not about a move to the middle or a distancing from past Labour governments as some in the media are advising. Andrew Campbell put it well yesterday on the radio - Labour should pull out its values and go to bat for them. It’s time to get on the front foot, speak to what we in Labour all believe, and say what Labour will do to address the issues that matter to New Zealanders. That is what people want to hear, not another reactive comment tagged onto a Tory story. Once again there is plenty of talent in the Labour caucus, more than enough to get on the front foot and take the fight to their opposites in the government.
Phil Goff has said it himself. I got a message from him as a Party member explaining Chris Carter’s demotion; it concluded:
New Zealanders are today confronting prices rising faster than wages, and a Government that has no idea how to create the jobs and future we need. That’s got to be Labour’s priority and focus.
I couldn’t agree more. The change in the Leader’s office with Gordon-John Thompson appointed as Chief of Staff is a sign that Labour is ready to step up the priority and focus on these issues and create these ideas. That is what will win the next election for Labour and Phil Goff.
A final word on Chris Carter. In my view we in Labour should not judge him too harshly. I had the opportunity to see him at close hand in the Mount Albert by-election, and no-one worked harder than him, nor could anyone doubt his dedication to Labour’s success. His mistake in my view was to believe what he feared, and defeat in politics as in sport starts in the head. But so does victory; and whatever one’s view of Chris’ actions, they should not continue to be the issue.
I believe Labour can win under Phil Goff’s leadership – I welcome his call to focus on that. There is much to do.
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New Zealanders are today confronting prices rising faster than wages, and a Government that has no idea how to create the jobs and future we need. That’s got to be Labour’s priority and focus.
Committing to axe a tax he wouldn’t commit to axing might be a good start.
With a little help from the Greens and the Maori’s, Labour could sneak home with Goff , but he should be rebuilding those relationships quietly now, not after the election.
In 1975, Labour under Rowling was routed by Muldoon who was a media darling, just like John Key. In just 3 years, Labour turned everything around and in 1978 won more party votes than National. Under MMP, Muldoon would have been a one term PM.
From now to the next election will be very tough for National – their chickens are coming home to roost and they haven’t got a ghost of a plan on how to improve the economy or lift the living standard of the majority of voters.
this is simple really,
no he can’t win.
I believe Goff can win. Its time now to pull out the big guns!!! There needs to be stronger policies in place. Objections against the smiling assassin – slippery politics must be heard louder in the media- not just on the Labour website.
now your just being a silly billy.. the key word in your post is ….simple..
billy…excuses excuses. that line says more about your own mindset than anything else
Labour supporters if you want to make some money this is a good idea.
Senior figures from the Australian Labor party have placed significant bets on the outcome of the federal election, with some punting against their own party.
doug..do you get your information from the same place johnkey does? if so, it might be an idea to take a deep breath before you let your slip show.
bbfloyd:
Read this link then.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election/gillard-flags-ban-on-pretty-crook-political-betting-20100801-1112b.html
doug… so we are supposed to assume you have a point to make, as opposed to the usual meaningless smartarsed drivel that seems to characterise pretty much every comment i have seen coming from you?
go on, try it,, it won’t hurt… really… just make a valid point. it’s not as scary as you’ve been told it would be.
doug..of course, the assumption is that this is an accurate article… no chance whatsoever that there may be any deliberate attempt to mislead. noooo of course not. so can you point to any articles that show how many liberal party officials may have bet on the election? seeing as most aussies i knew when i lived there loved a bet, i wouldn’t be surprised if there were a pile of them laying down their money too.
and why not? not bad odds from what i’ve seen so far. i thought you guys were supporters of profitable endeavour.
just read the article again, and it seems there are people from both sides of the divide placing bets. did you actually read the article all the way through doug? i repeat, aussies will bet on flies crawling up a wall. this is run of the mill stuff
It’s true alright. Chap from iPredict was on the wireless this afternoon saying it’s basically a risk-mitigation scheme for electorate finances: if they win the election, they win the election (and lose some money); if they lose the election they at least walk away with enough cash to fight a decent battle next time around. Sensible strategy if you know the odds and have a mandate to dispose of the money.
L
Labour had 9 years to fix the Neo-lib FU and did not!
They continued with the ruinous to NZ exporting businesses, and windfall profits to the money go around merchants, reserve bank act, to name only one thing. The 1984 Globalization and feed the money to offshore agenda continued.
Many of us feel the choice is NACT light or Labour lite. Neo-lib with or without an outward veneer of welfarism.
Labour need to decide, and make it clear, if they stand for big business like NACT or the rest of us including small business, wage earners and disadvantaged.
With the capcha DIVISION I can’t resist posting again
‘United we stand, divided we fall,’ seems an appropriate slogan for all on the Left right now.
If Labour can consolidate around Goff without a hint of division it’s a strong message to the electorate, especially as National and Act will start shitting themselves if the polls continue swinging away from them, and the inherent nastiness of many of their members will start to show.
Absolutely that is what we must do
I would like to add to Coolas and Swimmer’s comments:
Coolas:
Swimmer:
The Labour Party and Phil Goff now have a God given chance to put the above sentiments into practice
The Council of Trade Unions has announced that it will be holding Fairness at Work rallies on 21st August in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin.
Wouldn’t it be great if Phil Goff joined the union leaders on the podium to denounce the government’s attacks on working people and their unions?
Wouldn’t it lift Labour’s profile, if the party, in the spirit of Coolas call for the left to stand together, called on their membership to fully support these rallies in their centre. and Labour Party banners flags and posters were a dominant TV image at these rallies.
Wouldn’t Labour gain the respect and support of working people if they made such a stand?
Clik on the link to the CTU official announcement:
Fairness at Work Rallies called
The Greens will be there
As I’ve stated elsewhere, as much as I hope it does happen, I’m not convinced Labour can win under Goff. However I do suspect it is too close to the election to start fiddling around with the leadership. So other posters above are right, it is time for Phil to step up and start being counted. Start confronting the real issues in this country, the rising cost of living, stalled wages, the economy, health care, law and order, education, energy, and the environment. Too often lately real policy has been neglected by the media in favour of sensational headlines. It’s time the left took the media to task, and actually started focussing on the needs of ordinary New Zealanders. I don’t give a damn about “Party Central”, I care more about the future of this country. It is time we started looking at the underlying causes of some of the issues in this country, and as unpopular as some of the solutions might be, we need someone with the will to make real and effective change for good, and damn the poll results.
As an aside, one spanner which may be thrown in the works next year is Winston Peters. He is unpredictable, but a real political animal. As much as I dislike his brand of politics, he is inarguably a political force in this country, and it may well be that NZ First is again thrust into the role of kingmaker if he decides to throw his hat in the ring once more.
If I was Goff, I would lay out a CENTRIST plan, focusing on National’s weakpoints and nuetralising their strongpoints. Goff isn’t going to win on personality so he has to win on a credible plan.
To do this, Goff needs to tell the lefties and unionists in Labour to shut up. Its Goff’s election, why is he not given free reign to try to win it, why is he hamfisted by the left of his party? Clark had free reign why not he?
If I was Goff, I would tell Labour that I am doing it my way and if my way isn’t accepted then I would RESIGN to the backbench then take retirement at the election. Leave the lefties to preside over a disaster.
Goff’s own credibility is on the line here. Why would he want to be compromised by his own party.
I actually feel sorry for the guy, he inherited a right mess. Laughably, Carter tried to sell it as a close loss …funny thing is National have way more electorate seats so on FPP terms it was a hiding and on MMP terms Nat/Act could govern alone, so how that is close is beyond me. Then you add Labour’s struggles with the Maori Party and the centre-right is a mile ahead on MMP terms.
If Goff goes back to the centre-left, Winston will come in an Labour will be hammered.
Your defence of Carter, shows your bias, Carter is a joke, committed treason, repeated it. He needs to be expelled forthwith. A pathetic spend up public money large kind of guy.
Overall your post is very hopeful and full of political unrealities.
Unfortanately, Goff doesn’t have the guts or support to offer his own mandate.
The right says Goff should tell the left to shut up. The left say Goff should speak up.
Who is right?
Here is the latest update on Fairness At Work rallies, from the EPMU, the union headed by Andrew Little.
EPMU News
Decision time is here.
.
In the past couple of days it looks like the left has said to Goff “sit down and shut up, you no longer speak for the party”.
“The right says Goff should tell the left to shut up. The left say Goff should speak up.
Who is right?”
We know know who is right and it isn’t the right!
Fairness At Work rallies.
Will someone tell Labour to publicly support the rallies and use their communication channels to get as many of their members to attend. A public display of co-operation between the Greens, Labour and the industrial movement is exactly what is needed ‘right’ now.
Which side are you on?
Which side are you on?
One’s right and one’s wrong
United we’re strong
Which side are you on?
(from an old union song)
Cheers, Jenny. It’s a question that never goes away, eh?
Billy Bragg vid here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8fCQ-Dctm8&feature=related