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Labour up 6.8% – Herald DigiPoll

Written By: - Date published: 6:04 am, September 25th, 2013 - 269 comments
Categories: Politics - Tags:

Sure it’s just one poll but that’s nearly seven percent. And it’s (nearly) all come off National.

This goes quite some way to explaining why National are breaking out the desperate dirty tricks…

269 comments on “Labour up 6.8% – Herald DigiPoll”

  1. And he hasn’t even really done anything yet.
    Good call by all those who have had their cards marked correctly for a few years.
    Chocolate fish, gold stars and bonus points all around, except for the old ABC who get to do the washing up for a year.

    • Saarbo 1.1

      Exactly, Im not surprised one bit. DC has only just started sorting Labour out, wait for the next year we will go over 40% because people cant stand National and John Key’s dishonesty, they just needed a good Labour alternative. The ABC brigade and their supporters need to be sticking to their humble pie diet.

      • risildowgtn 1.1.1

        I voted for Labour once and that was in 84.

        My first ever time voting and look @ that mess…

        DC needs to sack the ABC clowns that prevented him from becoming leader…

        ALL of them…….

        DC is the 1 reason I will consider voting for em in ’14

        This has given me hope…

        Without shonkey Nact is nothing………

        • ScottGN 1.1.1.1

          My first election was in 1984 too. And further, I’m ashamed to admit that as a resident of Grey Lynn at the time I canvassed and scrutineered for Richard Prebble’s campaigned in Auckland Central.

      • Harriet 1.1.2

        “….they just needed a good Labour alternative….”

        I think you’re reading the electorate all wrong.

        National voters are really looking for a better National – namely the Conservatives.

        You have to remember that Act were Liberals but they didn’t ever take too many voters from National, meaning that National voters are actually conservative minded.

        Labour then doesn’t come into it as Labour can only govern with the Greens, and the Greens are mostly seen in the economy by conservatives as green battery acid!

        National will simply drive that point home about the Greens, and Labour will then have to out-perform to have any chance at all of governing as a lot of voters on the left are Christian -or at least Christian minded- and will be attracted to the Conservatives as an alternative to ‘uncaring rich prick National’.

        Colin Craig does not come across as a ‘right winger’ to Labour’s ‘taken for granted’ Christian voters. The Pacific Islanders over the Gay Marriage debate got to see Craig, and I’d speculate that he came across very well to them. Anyway, time will tell however!

        • Tracey 1.1.2.1

          Interesting observations. I am aware of two family members (male, white aged 50 and 48) who have voted ACT and National the last few elctions but are both saying Greens next time (Because they wont vote labour).

          I wonder if this is where the “duped” voter goes. It’s hard to admit you have been lied to or duped when you were told not to trust someone/something, so perhaps by not going to Labour they are able to not feel like they have admitted being wrong?

          Both say National didnt change enough, despite promising, but they mean economically, so it is odd they choose the greens.

          • ScottGN 1.1.2.1.1

            My BIL (a lifelong Nat supporter) voted Greens at the last election rather than switch to Labour. I’d say this scenario isn’t that uncommon.

            • Colonial Viper 1.1.2.1.1.1

              I know people who party voted Greens last time, and if they had to state their preferences would have gone with National second and Labour third.

          • risildowgtn 1.1.2.1.2

            Both my parent were National party supporters.. I sure broke the mould./mold :P

            They thought Muldoon was the second coming only coz they were farmers…..thing is they both be spinning in their graves over this so called National Govt….

        • Delia 1.1.2.2

          That party will go the same way as the Christian Heritage Party. It really does not stand a chance, put your support elsewhere. In fact CHP had more support after two years.

    • Colonial Viper 1.2

      And thank you to so many on The Std who gave us moral support and inspiration on the way. Now the real job is just beginning.

    • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 1.3

      @ Al1en,

      “And he hasn’t even really done anything yet.”

      Actually, I believe this is untrue.

      He has acted with a great deal of dignity. This takes effort.
      The dignity he showed over the appalling treatment ensuing over the appalling spin that occurred around the last Labour meeting put him in great stead to be seen as a person with good qualities for a politician playing on the national and international stage; there are always going to be difficult issues in this arena and he showed he could cope extremely well under such conditions.

      He has got out there and found out what people want and unapologetically stated what type of policies should be followed. This shows good qualities for a ‘representative of people’ and a great deal of courage considering the current orthodoxy.

      He has made active efforts to engage with the online community of people interested and concerned over politics. I think this is a big deal.

      The reshuffling has been done with a great deal of skill and integrity. This was never going to be easy, someone was always going to be left out, however he has managed to achieve it in a way that has come across as fair and based on merit, with the least amount of pettiness.

      There has also been a huge amount of skill and efforts from many people in order to get Mr Cunliffe elected as leader.

      I realise, Al1en that you weren’t really meaning he has ‘done nothing’ and actually agree with the overall sentiments of your comment, however I just feel the need to note, by way of acknowledgement, that Mr Cunliffe’s success to date is based on a lot of skills, qualities and efforts; not ‘very little’ at all.

      • The Al1en 1.3.2

        “Actually, I believe this is untrue.”

        “I realise, Al1en that you weren’t really meaning he has ‘done nothing’ and actually agree with the overall sentiments of your comment, however I just feel the need to note, by way of acknowledgement, that Mr Cunliffe’s success to date is based on a lot of skills, qualities and efforts; not ‘very little’ at all.”

        Separated by a common language, almost. ;)
        Just wait until he really gets going is more where I was coming from, but of course I concur 100% with the middle paragraphs.

        It’s the Revolution, and we’re all in it :)

  2. Boadicea 2

    Congratulations Labour Party on fighting for a say in the selection of Leader.
    Your efforts are paying off.

  3. neoleftie 3

    Great to see, overdue.
    We have the leader, signalled a left turn away from centralist position and the people come home to labour.
    Now we just need to reorganise the local level campaign to reach the weak voter who has labour identifiers, new campaign methodology I.e work done by uk labour.
    The mood on the street is time national went..

  4. IrishBill 4

    What’s interesting is that poll comes off the back of the leftward pitched leader’s contest. Which kind of puts a lie to the “tack right” advice coming from the pundits.

    • Bunji 4.1

      I still reckon most voters (particularly uncommitted ones) don’t care about left or right, but rather competence, vision, hope and cohesion.

      Better to stick to what you believe in, win the argument and do it well than try to cater the centre.

      • Tracey 4.1.1

        agreed.

        BUT I dont like or favour polls, so we need to keep focusing on what they will DO differently, not what they will say differently. Although as Opposition for now they only have words.

      • infused 4.1.2

        * handouts

        • ghostrider888 4.1.2.1

          *hands up

        • Tracey 4.1.2.2

          you mean like to Rio Tinto, Warner Bros or the foreign nvestors not covered by the guarantee over SCF?

          • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.2.1

            It’s funny how the Righties always accuse others of the very things they love to get themselves

            • Tracey 4.1.2.2.1.1

              yup. People also accuse others of things they do or would do themselves, assuming everyone has their mores. Like lying on a CV… Cunliffe must have lied cos chris37 has lied on his, and Hooten obviously has lied before on his and so on… interesting human trait to assume others dwell where they do.

    • Rogue Trooper 4.2

      “Tack to the left” we said (or was that to Port).

  5. miravox 5

    It’s not simply Labour up, great that this one poll is… it’s Key losing 9.4 percent in preferred PM. NAct has nothing when the popularity of Key falls.

  6. Paul 6

    Just wait for the corporate media’s puppets to start frothing at the mouth
    ..the poppinjay Michael Hoskins, Larry Lackwit Williams amongst others

    • Tracey 6.1

      you mean Mike Hoskins who for days on end last week said the Cup would be in NZ in a matter of hours? Some of them have been made to look very stupid to Joe and Josephine Average over this America’s Cup, casting themselves as experts in everything and knowledgeable about nothing

    • Tracey 6.2

      in the poll article there is an admission (of sorts) that the media play a part in popularity describing the period since the resignation of shearer and the contest as a “blaze of publicity”

    • Sosoo 6.3

      I think the worm may be beginning to turn in the media. Fran O’Sullivan was not particularly adversarial in this morning’s column, and she called Hooton out.

      …Matthew Hooton, has spent the last two days making allegations about the Labour leader because he included helping with the formation of Fonterra among a list of areas he worked on in his pre-politics career, while he was a Boston Consulting Group consultant.

      It was a fatuous allegation as there was, indeed, considerable work done by a range of consultants from BCG and McKinsey over the late 1990s leading up to the decisions to merge the various players into what ultimately was named Fonterra, with many people helping on the dairy giant’s formation.

      Cunliffe simply used the word “help”. He did not use words like “ran” or “orchestrated”. There is a difference.

      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11129524

      • Tracey 6.3.1

        McKinsey… picture me shivering … these guys are the monsanto of business consulting

      • Hanswurst 6.3.2

        The trouble with this is that the media can still build a narrative around the likes of Hooton’s claim, and I expect that they will. They could remain silent about it for a while, and it will fade from the readership’s consciousness. Then, shortly before the election, there will suddenly be opinion pieces containing statements like “… and Cunliffe has always had question marks surounding his integrity. Not many of his colleagues trust him, and no sooner was he leader than rumours began swirling that he had doctored his CV to overrepresent his charity work, and that he had falsely claimed to have helped establish Fonterra.” The qualifying clause, “… and immediately shown to be complete bunk” will probably be omitted. I imagine that establishing a sort of urban legend like that, something which is vaguely in the public consciousness and can be built up by right-wing commentators, is exactly what Hooton was after.

        • Not a PS Staffer 6.3.2.1

          The public can smell crap.
          Don’t underestimate their intelligence.
          75% of the membership ignored the ABCs.
          A large chunk of the general public will ignore what it detects as malicious propaganda in the media.

  7. Allie 7

    The comments the Herald are making about it are interesting. The editorial states that National would have a ‘moral right’ to govern if they were in the 40s but Labour wasn’t. However, the actual article makes it clear that on the numbers National just couldn’t get enough seats with their partners to have a majority. I assume the editor doesn’t want the public to understand how MMP works, so is pushing this first past the post rhetoric to try to confuse the issue because otherwise, on these numbers, we’d have a Labour-led government.

  8. bad12 8

    Lolz, but nobody cares about the GCSB Legislation do they, i have been waiting for the numbers to turn since watching ‘the Vote’ the other week where the Tory view on affordable housing got a 75% caning,

    The Roy Morgan gave a hint the other day and that Herald-DigiPoll just yelled out to National ‘Trouble’,

    i think the numbers in Nationals own internal polling have been going south for quite some time now and Smile’n’Wave having gone past it’s used by date the ‘handlers’ of Slippery the Prime Minister have used their international connections to dream up His latest Mr Popular whirlwind tour of some of the best known slums in places like Balmoral,

    While not time to have a massive ‘enjoy Hawaii Slippery party’ just yet, there’s still much to do on the fringes like keeping the fires in the Ohariu electorate burning against ‘the Hairdo’, the numbers give us an injection of inspiration which makes the work all the more enjoyable,

    i had my weekly peek at that other prediction site that the right wing scum/spinners claim not to have a hand in these days and lo and behold they have wound up ‘the Conservatives’ above the 5% so we can presume that efforts will be made by them at some stage to try and ‘spin’ this into a coalition partner in waiting for Her Highness the Slippery one…

    • Rosie 8.1

      “…….there’s still much to do on the fringes like keeping the fires in the Ohariu electorate burning against ‘the Hairdo’………………..”

      working on it bad, working on it:-)

      • Ennui 8.1.1

        You have worn that bow tie for too long for any good that you have done….In the name of God begone!

      • Tracey 8.1.2

        sadly Labour and Greens steal from each others chance to win against the hairdo…

        • Rosie 8.1.2.1

          Aside from the parties, theres a community centred movement in the electorate doing work around Dunne, but more on that another time…………..

          In the local paper awhile ago Dunne said he hasn’t ruled out running for MP again next year. With over a year to go to an election, and all that will happen in that time, maybe there is an small chance he will finally stand down. Like Ennui says he’s been wearing that bow tie for far too long. 29 years!

          If he does stand again, then maybe this time Labour and Greens will come to an arrangement about not standing a Green candidate. Surely by now they must realise the importance of that?

          • Tracey 8.1.2.1.1

            Perhaps his deal over the emails with Key, is a foreign posting? Lockwood has London… is the USA open, or would he prefer somewhere european?

            Is Katrina Shanks going to stand and be shafted by her party again? What’s the word on the ground Rosie

            • Rosie 8.1.2.1.1.1

              I’ve only been in the electorate for a year and a bit, apart from the ’08 election when I was here for 3 years, so I’m just starting to get a feel for the history and views of the community, and the likely ways to move ahead with a campaign around Dunne’s actions.

              I’m reluctant to outline what I’ve learned so far, in terms of current status and campaign plans as it’s not my place, until there is a consensus reached by the group, and the spokesperson makes it public.I did however put a comment on Open Mike on Monday, 26th August, after attending a public meeting hosted by People’s Power Ohariu on the Sunday. In that comment I talked about the areas of Dunne’s votes that guest speakers covered: Helen Kelly, employment legislation, Adi Leeson of Ploughshares, GCSB, John Maynard, Asset Sales and someone from the Salvation Army (sorry, I didn’t catch his name) on the Sky City deal.

              As for Katrina Shanks, I’m not sure at this point. I’m guessing that if Dunne doesn’t stand, then National will actually stand by her this time, unlike last time. I even felt a bit sorry for her because she still tried. She came third last time and Charles Chauvel had come closer to Dunne in ’11 than he did in ’08. I wonder if they get a really kick arse Labour candidate standing in Ohariu whether they might win. With Dunne gone we would remove the thorn in the side of NZ.

        • bad12 8.1.2.2

          Lolz, as are others…

          • Tracey 8.1.2.2.1

            remind me which electorate you are in Bad?

            • bad12 8.1.2.2.1.1

              Lolz, one not far away from Ohariu, as yet tho i am not under house arrest and having not read the laws surrounding electioneering feel free to make the odd mistake…

        • bad12 8.1.2.3

          Tracey, albeit the numbers for National have crashed in this one poll, and while i want to see that crash turn into a catastrophic rout for them we have to work off of the possibility that either NZFirst could be in the next Parliament and support National,

          Or, the Conservatives could quite conceivably,(by stretching your imagination), gain the 5% of votes necessary, so, we are better then to consider that ‘the numbers’ after November 2014 are likely to be very tight,

          The beauty of an anti-Dunne campaign in Ohariu is that there is no need to convince people to vote ‘for’ a particular party, there is only the need to convince the voter of Ohariu to NOT vote for Peter Dunne,

          In a tight contest even National winning the Ohariu seat will leave National with one vote less in the next Parliament…

          • Tracey 8.1.2.3.1

            is that the same for Epsom?

            I live in Epsom… i voted electorate for Goldsmith last time to try and push Banks out. My National voting brother in the same electorate voted Banks…

            I never know if I am gazumping myself.

            • bad12 8.1.2.3.1.1

              As far as i can tell Yes, that’s why the chimps had the tea party, if National win Epsom in a tight contest they are light a vote from Banks,

              There is a point in the % of Party Vote where this no longer holds true, but, if National slump that low in the polls then they are gone anyway…

              • Tracey

                Thanks bad…

                I actually delivered pamphlets for the greens the last two elections in my electorate… it’s always been pretty much about the party vote for me in this electorate. last electorate I was in was Ms Clark’s.

                Banks has gone very quiet BUT his last pamphlet made me chuckle and gag… I sent it back with some suggestions.

                • bad12

                  Tracey, there may or may not be specific laws around you as a ‘person’ making up your own Anti-John Banks leaflets and delivering them into the electorate bit by bit,

                  Small stones chucked into the pond are likely to create large ripples, like i say there is no need to be ‘for’ someone in such electioneering,

                  Many moons ago a van-load of us went through the Ohariu electorate with an Anti-National pamphlet drop, it was mean and nasty, lolz bad if you will, and didn’t propose that the voters of that electorate vote ‘for’ anyone simply proposing that they did not vote for National with a number of reasons why,

                  It’s hardly a ‘scientific’ result , but, the voters of Ohariu have not elected a National MP in that electorate since…

                  • Tracey

                    or have they not because they (Nats) have consistently shafted their own (Shanks) to get Hairdo (or dont) in?

                    I have contemplated a list of Keys lies… a run of 1000 or so flyers…

                    • bad12

                      Tracey, you are never going to turn the electorate of Epsom against National, you are better to concentrate on an anti-Banks message,

                      You have it right with your 1000 leaflets, you can always go further as you get the resources,

                      My advice is wait till the end of the year and by then Banks will or will not have conviction number 2 from the District Court…

  9. Colonial Viper 9

    And this is a pool which tend to under estimate Labour support on the day. Holy shit. Keys popularity drops to record low as PM.

    With the Greens at their highest point in at least two years. Its like waking up in a different country altogether!

  10. lurgee 10

    Everyone KEEP CALM.

    The new poll looks promising. But so did the Herald DigiPoll back in March which had Labour at 36.4. The intervening one, in June, put the party down to 30.9%. So one of three things has happened.

    a) Labour has enjoyed a huge surge in the polls. Good, but it has to be maintained.
    b) The June poll was an outlier and the panic then was unjustified.
    c) The June poll was correct and the current one is an outlier, in which case we’re doomed.

    More data needed.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      Lolz. Time to push Key as preferred PM under 50%.

      • bad12 10.1.1

        The Herald online is saying that Slippery took a turn for the worst while walking to the UN this morning, first having to lean on the wall of a building and then spending some time ‘recovering’ in a nearby pub,

        Perhaps His ‘tummy-bug’ was the result of having been ‘tweeted’ the latest poll results…

    • lprent 10.2

      Agreed. One poll is just one poll. A couple of favourable Roy Morgans and a few similar polls amongst the other polling companies and I’ll start getting interested.

    • Francis 10.3

      One difference between those two is that, in the March poll, the extra 6% that Labour had didn’t come from National. It came mainly from the other parties, including the Greens and NZ First. This time, however, the 6% has come mainly from National (which has remained largely unchanged since the election).

      Most of the polls brought out since the leadership contest began are showing at least some support dropping from National to Labour. The exact amount of support seems to vary to a large degree, but I think you can safely say that a fair few people have swapped their support. The question is, can Labour maintain that support? A lot can happen in 12 months…

  11. trickldrown 11

    Teflon john is slipping out of the
    pan into the fire .
    No wonder hooten is worried national would have been informed much earlier by their internal polling!

  12. Skinny 12

    I’ve been predicting a landslide loss for National for sometime ( before DC took control) & it looks highly likely when you take into account the previous non voters coming back into play. Key & National will be thrown out in disgrace!

  13. trickldrown 13

    Unity moderation of our message that is not giving shonkey amunition ie labour greens going to the far left is what we need to be very careful about!
    But we also need to back this up with hard work get the left out to vote the best way for that is to help on the ground words are all
    very well but to reach those 800,000 who did not turn out last election.
    These non voters be identified contacted and inspired to participate in our democracy!

    • Tiger Mountain 13.1

      Go left is what Labour, Greens and Mana need to do in accordance with their own constituencies and styles. You don’t have to wear a beret and fatigues to go left, certain yanks will be shitting bricks after suit wearing David Cunliffe made the perfectly reasonable statement about the text of the TPPA being made public.

      I don’t like or trust polls but do accept that the “over time” view has validity. Blue has been dropping and Red slowly rising for months now. Plus when the dirty filthy Herald can longer fiddle its own poll and has to show a positive result for Labour then something is going on!

    • Colonial Viper 13.2

      Tricldown please explain why you are advocating for a gutless colourless centrist messaging when it is clearly the “hard left” rhetoric of the Labour leadership challenge which has caught peoples imagination.

      • Puddleglum 13.2.1

        Perhaps Ed Milliband has adopted a similar strategy?

        I think Bunji (above) has a point – within certain bounds, many people in the so-called ‘centre’ are looking for (a) a party that knows what it stands for, (b) looks competent and decisive, and (c) resonates with their particular concerns.

        As Trotter recently wrote, the ‘centre’ is the most malleable part of the political spectrum just because its members prioritise these kinds of attributes.

        That means two things – any party needs to cleave to its ‘core mission’ (to provide it with the requisite decisiveness and certainty that underpins perceptions of competence) and needs to show how its approach speaks to what concerns people about their life and their society.

        Those two things can be achieved whatever the political hue so there’s no point in ‘tacking right’ if it doesn’t seem like a fit with the ‘core mission’ of a party (and vice versa).

        The one good thing about being characterised as ‘hard left’, for Labour and the Greens, is that if they pitch their policies and rhetoric in a way that responds to what most people in the ‘centre’ are looking for then those same centrist voters won’t like being called ‘hard left’, by implication.

        That is, the label could backfire.

    • Skinny 13.3

      There is a huge campaign starting just before Christmas from an ‘A’ political group who have been plotting a very hip drive to get the previous non voters out in high numbers. My partner is a tech geek & is administrating their social media campaign, she will be taking on this role full time till the election is over (so i guess i have a proactive interest).

      What I’m allowed to say is they intend having these people voting early, like a week ahead of election day. I’ll post the link on here once their social media drive starts, please share far & wide it’s a ripper plan. 

      If admin from this site want a quiet heads up (due to trolls) they can email me for further details.

  14. Tracey 14

    Is this why the Pm is feeling unwell? Or is it because he wants to get across to San Francisco and can use the excuse of needing to get home and doing it in jumps.

    • chris 14.1

      “Is this why the Pm is feeling unwell?”… it could be.

      Sure as heck cheered me up this frightful day :)

    • fender 14.2

      “He needed to lean against a wall for a few minutes before going into McFaddens pub. He spent about five minutes in the pub before emerging, looking very pale.”

      Yes the PM is unwell, hope he gets well soon, but hope his poll ratings continue to get sicker.

      ShonKey takes ill”

    • fender 14.3

      “He needed to lean against a wall for a few minutes before going into McFaddens pub. He spent about five minutes in the pub before emerging, looking very pale.”

      Yes the PM is unwell, hope he gets well soon, but hope his poll ratings continue to get sicker.

      ShonKey takes ill

  15. Tracey 15

    I sometimes think you can find clues about who writers are writing for early on. read this from Clare Trevett

    “Prime Minister John Key’s dance card in New York is crammed from top to bottom with meetings – and the dance partners are not the usual ones as he tries to woo votes for a seat on the Security Council.”

    Dance card? dance partners? Thats a very particular demographic who still thinks in those terms or even recognises them.

  16. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 16

    I am not sure how to respond to this. Luckily, I have six years of precedent.

    1. The polls are rigged.
    2. I met a guy the other day who used to think Cunliffe was brilliant but now recognises that he is a bastard.

    • thatguynz 16.1

      More enlightening diatribe from the appropriately named Gormless Fool.. /yawn.

      [lprent: The first part of his handle wasn't his choice. ]

      • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 16.1.1

        lprent: The first part of his handle wasn’t his choice

        It kind of was. People have called me many names on this site. I have chosen which one to put in my title.

        • lprent 16.1.1.1

          Let me rephrase that. At the time you got it, it wasn’t your choice. That you kept it has been your choice :twisted:

        • thatguynz 16.1.1.2

          And I would wager that as long as you continue to post complete bollocks and act like a muppet then the list of things you have been called on this site will continue to expand. As it stands I suspect the number on said list far outstrips your IQ…

          • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 16.1.1.2.1

            If only I was as smart as you, thatguynz. I can tell you are smart because you used “said list”. Mint. Are you from the 18th century?

        • Greywarbler 16.1.1.3

          . People have called me many names on this site. I have chosen which one to put in my title.
          he claimed, standing tall and speaking with pathetic dignity.

          • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 16.1.1.3.1

            ..whatever pathetic dignity is.

            • Tracey 16.1.1.3.1.1

              possibly pretending you chose your name when in fact someone chose it for you and then you decided to keep it?

              • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell

                Hey, Tracey, tell us the funny story about how you chose your name. Or did someone else do that for you? Did you decide to keep it?

                I can’t wait.

                • gobsmacked

                  Hey, Biscuit Barrel, where’s that poll you “seem to recall”?

                  Have you gone all Hooton?

                  • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell

                    In the graph here. November 2011 27.4%. April 2012 34.8%. Actually, that’s over 7%. My memory’s not so good, I suppose.

                    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11129578

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Cunliffe has taken it to the next level already. Damn fine work.

                    • gobsmacked

                      Which only demonstrates that Barrel doesn’t know the difference between polls and votes. You compare A with A, not B with A. So, you’re wrong.

                      Just a reminder – every single published poll (without exception) in 2011 said that National could govern alone. And yet … they can’t.

                      What matters are the votes. The people, not the Herald. I’m not going to waste time explaining what that means, you’ll find out on election night.

                    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell

                      So, gobsmacked, you’re not getting excited about the latest Herald Digipoll. Good on you.

                      Others are. Some of them have commented on this post. It was more to them that my comments were directed.

                      Sincere apologies for the confusion caused by the lax addressing of my comments. I hope that this apology will allow us to put this matter behind us.

                    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell

                      And gobsmacked clearly doesn’t believe in Tracey’s idea that democracy has nothing to do with popularity.

                      He thinks it’s all about the popularity. Crikey! Wouldn’t like to get between them. Crazy kids!

                • Tracey

                  now now… you are losing that carefully crafted faux distance

      • Colonial Viper 16.1.2

        I think the righties are going to find that their cook book approaches of even the recent past are going to fail to rise.

    • Tracey 16.2

      has cunliffe been proven to have lied?

      Key wont put up taxes…

      Key will pay down debt with proceeds from asset sales…

      Labour made them pay out the guarantee to SCF…

      Labour locked them into buying the BMWs

      So, you are right, if Cunliffe proves to be a liar (proven not high pitched allegations) he wont have my support. Does Key have yours?

  17. Rogue Trooper 17

    20.5: The purposes of a mans heart are deep waters, but a person of understanding draws them out.
    20.11: Even a child is known by his actions, by whether his conduct is pure and right.

    (will take a lot of spin to move those ‘conservatives’ towards anything Colin Craig has to offer; sheep are not that bright, yet they survive many a harsh winter to leap about in spring).

  18. felix 18

    Let’s keep the Marque Vue chilled until we get a few more good polls in though, eh?

    • lprent 18.1

      Muck Spew? Are you trying to get me to wish for good polls for National?

      • felix 18.1.1

        Three good polls in a row and I’ll be breaking out the Bernadino Spumante.

        • Tiger Mountain 18.1.1.1

          Pity my 70s fave sparkling “Muscato Bianco” (“a flavoured wine based drink”–on label) one of if not the first with a screw top, is no longer available. ‘Cold Chuck (Duck)’ even I would not go there. Spectacular results for the halter topped girls after a few mixed with onion dip and chips.

          Anyway whatever the beverage the celebrations will be due alright if Key can be kept in a bilious state and the disengaged involved.

          • Ennui 18.1.1.1.1

            Ah the 80s (and the 70s)…memories of alcoholic beverages past. has everyboody recovered from the toxic shock / hangovers yet?

            Mine came from that 80s invention, Chateau Collapso…..cardboard box with wine bladder. Omn the beer front there was Lion Brown or DB….and when in Dunedin Speights..lots of choice, any of three!

            • Greywarbler 18.1.1.1.1.1

              Older people beware – times and capacities have changed. Now winebox with cardboard bladder. Inclined to leak.

        • Rosie 18.1.1.2

          lol, are you having 80’s power moments again felix?

          On the cautious celebratory note, what about a sing a long when it really is time to celebrate? There is a cross over of musical flavours among TS commenters and authors, that I have happily noted. All good rousing stuff. I propose a medley of musical contributions to the site at the time we take down the Key regime.

          • Greywarbler 18.1.1.2.1

            Rosie
            Let’s start now. 76 Trombones for one. Hallelujah, don’t know whether Buckley or Leonard. Something joyful from Handel? The choices, the bells…

            • Rogue Trooper 18.1.1.2.1.1

              K.D Lang

            • Rosie 18.1.1.2.1.2

              Definitely Leonard. I can feel it now, the tears of joy. There are other Halleujahs too. Happy Mondays spring to mind. I was thinking of going completely left field and learning some jigs and reels care of our Irish and Scots ancestors. Jigs come in handy for a spot of grave dancing too.

        • Rogue Trooper 18.1.1.3

          pulling out all the corks then. (St Aubyns methode champenoise Brut by the case, in my 20s, from a little off-license in Marton; did not cellar for long).

          oops double Sevens, time to leave the table)

        • Tracey 18.1.1.4

          I think Key beat you to it…

    • Tracey 18.2

      my worst new years hangover was on this stuff at mt maunganui… first I came out of the sound dome and my brother grabbed me by the shirt as I started crossing the road because the streets were lined with lads chucking glass bottles at each other (DD Smash had been playing btw)…

      went to the beach, drank more spumante, then the riot police arrived, I ran toward home, my brothers toward the riot police… got home and introduced myself tot he porcelain, over and over again…

  19. trickldrown 19

    CV Muldoon savaged labour by focusing thr voting public on the radical left He maintained
    Power for 9 years by doing that
    Key and Crosby Textor have already signalled that is their strategy we can outflank the lizards of OZ and teflon john by swallowing some dead rats to under mine this strategy!
    The left have rarely shown unity that’s why we don’t get the reigns of power!
    We need to play a very smart game to outflank the right which we know have virtually unlimited resources and play our cards close to our chest .
    Policy in the shorterm should just be broad generalisations because nactional will swallow any dead rats to stay in power and will steal good popular policy and call it their own just like muldoon did with super bribe in 1975!

    • Colonial Viper 19.1

      I think we’ve seen that the public survived the last month of cries of “Labour candidates are going hard left!” very well.

      Muldoon era FPP comparisons are borderline irrelevant now.

      You should move into the MMP age.

      • tricledrown 19.1.1

        CVshure the MMP age we saw how john banks didn’t tell us that they were going to set up charter schools national would have lost more support by having Act policy that may have lost national enough support to govern 1 less seat and it would have been over we need to be careful.
        what I am saying is we can back official policy but not policy that national will use to undermine the swing voter.
        next year NZ will have 3%+ growth so long as we don,t have a drought.
        because of CHCH building boom taking off as National have planned it.
        Dairy payout around $8.60.
        People believe this growth is a sign National are good managers of the economy (its the economy stupid)!
        The left need to show they can work well together and have policy areas they agree on because With the figures looking goood for National the left will need a huge number of ground workers to get those who didn’t vote out.
        MSM will give National an endless free ride if growth of this magnitude happens .

    • felix 19.2

      Any claims of far left-ism do need to be checked against reality though: http://www.politicalcompass.org/nz2011

    • Greywarbler 19.3

      Like your prose tricledown
      lizards of Oz
      reigns of power
      and
      Good points to think about.

  20. finbar 20

    A poll!s result is only as good as last weeks performance.

    Yesterday in the house, Labour were on fire and if they are to maintain their ascent in the popularity poll!s,they are going to have to keep stoking it, not only in point scoring in the house but also with a policy platform, that the public can have belief and certainty in,that will put us on the road to a fairer egalitarian society.

  21. Sable 21

    Dirty tricks are Nationals stock and trade. I doubt this poll has anything to do with this, its simply their approach because at the end of the day they really are not interested in governing but instead leeching off the public and no accurately informed voter is going to support that.

    What Labour and the Greens need to do is get off their asses and develop strategies to combat this. Their own media campaign and marketing as well as repeatedly reminding the public of Nationals worst excesses is essential if they want to win.

    Say what you like about the man but Winston Peters is a great asset in this sense as he is a master of self promotion which explains why he has endured whilst others have fallen by the wayside. If Labour could get over their childish partisan approach to politics and work with him they could learn a lot. Sure they would have to compromise but as I have said repeatedly that’s what MMP is all about.

  22. Greywarbler 22

    Important and illuminating stuff coming from whistleblowers. Should we start a trust fund that helps out such people who are likely to lose their jobs and incomes sooner or later?

    The way the world is going, with transparency of government diminished while our lives, sayings and doings are open like a peepshow to political voyeurs, their enforcers and their pimps, the only chance of having some effect on steering our direction in a positive line is through these chinks in the laser curtain.

  23. gobsmacked 23

    Is there anybody out there who still believes Shearer was the solution, not the problem? Or that leaders don’t matter?

    Look more closely at the poll. In the preferred PM rankings, the previous Labour leader has disappeared. Even Goff, Clark and Robertson (plus Norman and Peters) get a few votes, behind Cunliffe.

    This matches the weekend TVNZ poll, where – again – Shearer simply vanished without trace. Look back over the historical precedents, and you’ll see that ex-leaders hang around in the polls for a few months, as some voters loyally cling on, or maybe just don’t catch up with the news. I cannot recall any leader of a major party ever disappearing so fast from the public consciousness.

    It is stubborn stupidity, against all the evidence, to believe in some fantasy world where Labour could have carried on without changing their leader. Labour voters didn’t want him. Case closed.

    • McFlock 23.1

      Or that leaders don’t matter?

      As opposed to innumerable other factors that can affect the party vote on election day? yep. me.

      Frankly, all your comment does is reinforce my belief that much of the faith in Cunliffe revolves around fandom interpreting the facts to fit their faith, rather than the alternative.

      Leave it a while. Get some trends. See how much is established support, rather than a bounce due to weeks of campaigning and coverage during the leadership contest. Remember Rudd as well as you think you remember Shearer.

      • gobsmacked 23.1.1

        You’ve ignored my point, and answered one I haven’t made.

        The party vote may well bounce around in the polls. My point was about the preferred PM. Read it again.

        • McFlock 23.1.1.1

          You seem to be linking leadership personal popularity with party vote, otherwise how could preferred pm polls be a “problem”?

          Based entirely on one datapoint each from two different polls, which is wishful thinking to the point of wilful delusion (which was my point).

          • Rogue Trooper 23.1.1.1.1

            btw those dirty tricks metaphors were funny Flockie; not shaken, not stirred. Word!

          • gobsmacked 23.1.1.1.2

            Based entirely on the last 20 months.

            By any measurement of public opinion, Shearer was a problem for Labour. If you’re determined not to acknowledge that (presumably for reasons of personal stubbornness, not analysis of evidence), then that’s your right. It does make you look silly, though.

            • Colonial Viper 23.1.1.1.2.1

              McFlock was, and remains, one of the oddest oblique-passive-aggressive Shearer/Robertson leadership team supporters on this site.

              • Tracey

                ahead or just behind sHooten Up???

              • McFlock

                That right there: if I’m not with you, I must be agin you.
                Bollocks. Maybe I am just reluctant to rest the hopes of NZ on one man. Particularly when he seems to me to be somewhat interchangeable with a couple of others.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Right there is an example of exactly what I mean when I said

                  McFlock was, and remains, one of the oddest oblique-passive-aggressive Shearer/Robertson leadership team supporters on this site.

                  • McFlock

                    Nah mate. Not the slightest bit of support for shearer/robertson in that comment. So I’ll reiterate the “If not with then against” line.

            • McFlock 23.1.1.1.2.2

              Are you talking about labour’s polling, or shearer’s personal polling, now? The two are very different measures, and quite frankly have debatable relationships with each other.

              The first 16 months or so of Shearer in relation to labour’s polling do not back up your assertion.

              But I will concede the tautology that the personality and charisma of the leader are important factors in “preferred prime minister” ratings.

              However, I think that the “preferred PM” ratings do not “party support” make, indicate, or even particularly contribute to when compared with depth of caucus, depth of policy, party financing, media bias, media format, opposing parties’ depth of caucus, opposing parties’ depth of policy, lobby group financing and expertise, party cohesion, international events, and random acts of god.

              You might think that the leader is the key determinant of a party’s performance alongside or ahead of all those other factors, but frankly to me it seems like you’re fixated on a 12c landing gear lock-indicator bulb while the plane is still flying.

              • Rogue Trooper

                you are good at winging it Flockie; a Drysdale perchance, or a Ryeland?

                • McFlock

                  the references escape me

                  • Rogue Trooper

                    Breeds, yet it can be conceded that leadership can influence caucus depth party cohesion (and random acts of god) for example. don’t force me to think Flockie .

                    • McFlock

                      True to a point, although depth of caucus is down to the main candidate selection process. If the entire caucus were made up of John Banks, not even Cunliffe could make it run competently.

                      But at best the leader can affect a couple of factors that vie for position to affect the party as a whole. Personally I think that co-leaderships are a way of getting out of the media horse race and actually looking at parties and policies as a whole.

                      That and campaign funding, lobbyist registers, tightening up the sham trusts I believe are used by some MPs and parties to hide conflicts of interest, and so on. But I digress.

                    • ghostrider888

                      Yes from co-leaderships on down. If given the opportunity the Greens moral stances may lend them to negotiate to address those funding / lobbying matters as they would be natural benefactors.

                      pls excuse the colour, out of white ink.

              • Tracey

                do you think Key’s popularity is irrelevant to their wins in 2008 and 2011?

                • McFlock

                  I think ’08 had more to do with Labour as a whole being a bit knackered after three terms, really. Policy, caucus, everything.

                  And 2011 was dominated by Pike River, RWC, ChChx2, “Labour ditched us with it” still being fresh, and the Rena off the top of my head. Labour was keen, but pushing shit uphill against all that.

                  One could argue “show us the money” was a good line (I suspect overplayed, though), but that’s balanced by the RWC 3way and one or two other keyisms. Would a Cunliffe in charge of Labour have beaten a Shearer or Brash in charge of the nacts? Maybe, if the winds blew fair. But I think the imbalance would have had to been that disparate or more for leadership alone to swing 2011, and doubtful even then. Goff did a solid job, much better than one would expect from a pure “caretaker” leader. But that first election in opposition was always going to be a bugger.

                  • It seems that, when asked,quite a few people think that the leader affects who they, themselves, vote for.

                    A similar number say it doesn’t, but the 40% who do remains quite a significant group.

                    Then again, perhaps people don’t have a good understanding of why they vote for a particular party – they might think it’s because they approve of the leader but, subconsciously, it’s the policy depth, media bias, etc. Of course, things such as ‘media bias’ might itself be affected by whether some journalists like or dislike a party leader and some party funding might also stem from personal liking for the leader.

                    Since no-one knows just how all these factors interact and coalesce, the point, presumably, is to maximise all parts of the ‘equation’ – including the leader’s appeal, media savvy, clarity of communication and the like.

                    • Rogue Trooper

                      Informative link my friend.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Churchill wasn’t important in winning WWII; only his policies mattered.

                    • Churchill is a good example of leaders who personify something that is present but needs a focus around which to organise.

                      I think some people, quite rightly, are not into ‘hero worship’ or the elevation of an individual above what is needed for the common good, but that doesn’t mean that the selection of the ‘right’ leader for the moment is unimportant.

                      Irrespective of what David Cunliffe, the individual, is or isn’t, his selection has done something that needed doing and that wasn’t happening previously, despite the fact that ‘it’ was ripe for happening.

                      It has given just about everyone – even those on the right, I suspect – a sense that something has now changed so far as party political fortunes are concerned.

                      That changed moment and momentum can of course be lost – but the very fact that it is there to be lost shows that the game is different.

                    • Rogue Trooper

                      Churchill? Bah, the young won’t buy (or read ) his writings today. I own a few, can’t give them away. Conflation. (They would not be here in their present form; such foolishness). Fascism has it’s appeal.

                    • McFlock

                      Considering what I said about the 2011 election and the respective roles each leader could “play” in the events 2008-11, not sure that this is particularly applicable to 2014.

                      Churchill is an interesting one, but possibly exceptional, even if one includes the speeches allegedly made while drunk or by an impersonator.

                      My long-held concern is that there’s fixation on one (probably less than significant) part of the equation is being focused on rather than the full equation.

                      I suppose the plus side is that the other parts of the equation aren’t being second-guessed and heckled by the morning tacticians.

                    • felix

                      McF, what are you basing this strongly held belief on? I’m yet to see any reasoning or working for it beyond a lot of “I reckon”s.

                    • McFlock

                      The fact that there’s more going on in a country or an election than whether a leader says “um” or stutters.

                    • fender

                      McF, don’t forget the totally vacant and frightened look of a man totally out of his depth. It was far worse than just a few ums, ahs and stutters.

                    • McFlock

                      Yeah, right, whatever.

                      Brilliant? Nope.
                      The “totally vacant and frightened look of a man totally out of his depth”? Nope.

                      Somewhere in between is what I saw.

                    • fender

                      “….. is what I saw.”

                      Well it’s a good thing others had their eyes fully open :wink:

                    • felix

                      “Somewhere in between is what I saw.”

                      Yep, you’re probably about right there. Unfortunately it seems that “Somewhere in between” isn’t enough to inspire much support.

                    • McFlock

                      Sometimes squinting can help you see better ;)

                      Reminds me of some of the polite (but long-standing) “qualitative vs quantitative” debates we have at work. Economists might know the price of everything and the value of nothing, but the trouble with value is that it is highly subjective.

                      @felix: So far, Cunliffe is “somewhere in between” as well…

                    • felix

                      Well that’s also highly subjective. Of course we have no way of knowing anything objectively about how Cunliffe compares to Shearer except from the aggregate of the opinions of just about everyone who has one.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      @felix: So far, Cunliffe is “somewhere in between” as well…

                      Putting Cunliffe in the same grade of Labour Leader as Shearer was?

                      Crack open a Tui for me mate!

                    • McFlock

                      Indeed, Felix, I’m all in favour of giving Cunliffe more time to demonstrate a Rudd-bump and then to demonstrate that the bump can be maintained.

                      @CV – it is a very wide grade between the two extremes outlined above ;)

                    • Ramsay

                      I broadly agree with McFlock.

                      You can support Cunliffe without being a total fan-boi.

                    • felix

                      Weird thing to say, Ramsay. Where are these “total fanbois” you speak of?

                      Or are you using McFlock’s definition, i.e. “anyone who didn’t unquestioningly support Shearer for his entire underwhelming term as leader, regardless of whether or not they actually expressed a preference for who his replacement should be”?

                    • McFlock

                      Not my definition.

                      Mine would be more along the lines of “people who dramatically exaggerated Shearer’s shortcomings at every opportunity, while minimising or excusing Cunliffe’s slips of the tongue and delays in getting a campaign website up and running on the day of his announcement (despite having an entire weekend to prepare it)”. That sort of thing.

                    • felix

                      lolz. I guess it’s just a pity no-one else saw in Shearer what you saw.

        • Tracey 23.1.1.2

          remember cunliffe is already popular with his membership and unions… those are votes that are probably a given for Labour SO the real guage is those who are undecided or weren’t going to vote Labour under hearer but might now?

          • Ramsay 23.1.1.2.1

            Cool Tracey. Add the number of union members to the number of Labour party members – delete the duplicates and work that out as a percentage of the voting population.

      • felix 23.1.2

        Shearer who?

  24. Ramsay 24

    I don’t put much store in the accuracy of opinion polls unless they confirm my pre-conceptions.

  25. Sable 25

    Yes polls tend to be of limited value. Especially given the number of red neck trolls who haunt sites like Stuff and the NZ Herald.

  26. paul scott 26

    [deleted] iprent, deleting comments he seems incredibly biased, [deleted]

    [karol: you asked for it, so I'll send you off to moderation. I aim to please.....]
    [lprent: unmoderated because there are replies.

    Banned for a week so this munter has time to read the policy that we generally follow while moderating. While the wanker is at it, he should read the about so he understands what this site is run for. As a short hint, it isn't for untalented trolls without any creative abilities and poor observational abilities. ]

  27. Brian 27

    It has been such fun watching the natzis on the various forums now decrying the validity of the same polls they were vaunting a fortnight back. Too funny.

  28. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 28

    I seem to recall Labour enjoyed a six point jump in the Herald Digipoll when Shearer became the leader. How’d that work out?

  29. captain hook 29

    What do you mean National getting dirty?
    They have always been dirtier than dirt and only now are we seeing it come out into the open.
    Nevermind their comeuppnace is on its way.
    hehehehehehehe.

    • Tracey 29.1

      they will stop using Hooten now… and find another dupe to do their dirty work so they can say things like “we dont believe in playing the man not the ball” etc etc

      today key said getting on the security council is a hard road to row… he is our G W Bush

  30. But what are the trends saying?

  31. Ramsay 31

    Look – I can’t see how this can be spun as anything other than good news for the left. But let’s not get carried away here.

    You would expect a bit of a bump from the selection of a new leader. Somebody said that Shearer got a bump at the same rate which is a little bit disconcerting if true. I think being overly celebratory here is setting the left up for a fall.

    Maybe I am in the minority but I really don’t believe individual leaders can usually make a big, sustained impact against the underlying political gravity. You can jump up from the baseline for a time but eventually you are dragged back down to the levels of the basic political realities.

    Remember when Krudd backstabbed Gillard and Labour surged in the polls only to gradually, but assuredly, slipped back down to Julia Gillard levels. The same thing happened when Julia Gillard backstabbed Krudd and initially surged (enough to eek out a second term) before naturally declining down to pre-coup levels.

    If David is going to be a succesful Labour leader, it won’t be because he delivers a quick fix, but because he will have put in place the structures and the attitudes to ensure Labour’s natural level of support is between 35% and 45% – not 25% and 35%.

    • gobsmacked 31.1

      Somebody said that Shearer got a bump at the same rate which is a little bit disconcerting if true.

      “Somebody” was a visiting rightie, and it’s not true. The polls are all online, Google/Wikipedia.

      You’re right about basic tides or gravity, but you miss the point. Shearer was holding the tide back. Remove the obstacle (i.e. a guy who swing voters could not imagine as PM) and you get the proper tide – which is to the left.

      There is no comparison with Rudd/Gillard. That was an unpopular gov’t. This is about opposition to a gov’t. Chalk, cheese.

      Cunliffe doesn’t have to be a saviour, he just has to let Labour/the opposition get their true level of support. Again, see all the polls on policies … Lab/Grns are with public opinion.

      • Ramsay 31.1.1

        For all the hating, I didn’t really think David Shearer was a bad leader and I am probably more tempermentally minded towards his political position than I am towards Cunliffe’s (expressed) positions. (Is that enough to get me banned here?). These things take time and it’s so easy to forget how badly Labour initially did under Helen Clark – about as well as Phil Goff. These things take time whoever they are.

        So, if your minded to consider my views you should probably see them through that lens. BUT I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour’s position settles back to a very small net gain at this stage. What will the headlining article be on the Standard then? Labour falls 4%?

        You’re right to say that Australia isn’t a perfect analogy – but what is? Maybe a better example is after Don Brash, ahem, ‘exploded’ onto the political scene and brought National back from the brink. The polls subsided, though, and he ended up losing that election. It was John Key who really re-aligned politics in the country and his National Party has ended up the most popular political entity in living history. (Saying that unpleasant truth will probably get me banned if nothing else does).

        And as for the polls on individual policies – sorry, I don’t think that’s what wins elections. Look at Obama, whose corporatist insurance law is deeply unpopular (as much as asset sales are) – yet the people resoundingly reelected him because they trusted him to govern. That’s what it’s all about.

        • McFlock 31.1.1.1

          It was John Key who really re-aligned politics in the country and his National Party has ended up the most popular political entity in living history. (Saying that unpleasant truth will probably get me banned if nothing else does).

          damn, that’s where you lose me.

          Show me Clark’s highest PrefPM rating or party rating. Match it with key’s. Who wins?

          • Tracey 31.1.1.1.1

            being really popular doesnt automatically mean you have done a good job. This isnt a popularity race it’s the future of our children and their children. Sounds trite but only because people have turned politics into a popularity contest or a sports game.

            • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 31.1.1.1.1.1

              Yeah. Democracy. What bullshit.

              • Colonial Viper

                Wow, do you really think that popularity = democracy?

                I think you left out a large number of principles eg rule of law, due process, equitable treatment, etc

                • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell

                  A large part of democracy is precisely a popularity contest, Mr Picky.

                  • Tracey

                    It has been framed as a popularity contest, that doesnt mean that is its essence. Popularity means democracy is about who has the better Hooten, Farrar, Bradbury etc and the funds for PR (crosby Texter etc).Your form of democracy is a kind of prostitution.

                    Succumbing to your definition explains alot about why the gap between rich and poor in this country is widening. No trickle down as promised by Douglas and Richardson… well not for those at the bottom… but golly they were popular that Ruth and Douglas ( at first anyway)

            • Ramsay 31.1.1.1.1.2

              Sorry Tracey – but the sausage making of electoral politics is a popularity race.

              • Tracey

                You dont seem sorry.

                • Ramsay

                  I am sorry you think that a political party in a liberal democracy doesn’t have to worry about it’s popularity with the voters who decide elections.

                  • Rogue Trooper

                    Bismarck. interesting. been some skin-pulling going on today indeed. Sorry Nick, that may be the Karma Police from DoC and MPI knocking.

            • amirite 31.1.1.1.1.3

              Kevin Rudd had the highest approval rating once, at 71% yet right before the last election must’ve been the most hated.
              Popularity in politics is a fickle thing and has a limited life span.

          • Ramsay 31.1.1.1.2

            In terms of elections, the Party under Helen Clark registered 28.19% in 1996, 38.74% in 1999, 41.26% in 2002 and 41.10 in 2005 and then 33.99% in her final election in 2008.

            Key doesn’t have the same length in office as a leader but he got 44.93% and 47.31% the second time. That’s pretty resounding and it’s slightly better than Clark achieved. I’d call it a realignment (on the basis that no alignment is permanent).

            If I was a betting man at this stage I would pick a third National term with Peters – which will signal the end of the Key era. if Cunliffe suceeds – and I think he’s got it in him – he’s going to do it as a Tony Abbott style political manager. But I just don’t think it will be an instant success.

            • Colonial Viper 31.1.1.1.2.1

              if Cunliffe suceeds – and I think he’s got it in him – he’s going to do it as a Tony Abbott style political manager.

              What a load of bullcrap.

              For starters, Cunliffe is going to be able to give “Womens Affairs” to an actual woman.

              • Tracey

                I seriously hope Ramsey is being funny? I am confidant that Cunliffe has more substance in his little finger than Abbott has in his entire body.

                • Ramsay

                  Ok – so because you detest Tony Abbott you’re going to deny that he ran an extraordinarily disciplined campaign? I’d wager you don’t much like John Howard either. Would you consider him to be a failure as a politician.

                  In life, there are ends and means. Ends can only be achieved by certain means and it’s not helpful to pretend their aren’t good practioners on both sides. The trick is not to sacrafice too many of your preferred ends so as to render victory useless.

                  That’s why Bismarck said politics is like sausage making – it’s looks better when you don’t see it being made.

                  • Tracey

                    oh please. playing to the misogynist australian voter and Rudd sabotaging from the inside… abbotts campaign was full of blunders and yet he won. He didnt need to talk about actual policies (which is good for his supporters).

                    You need to rename yourself machievelli (sp). ends and means tricks …

                    Funny you quote Bismarck. Abbotts thinking wouldnt be out of place in 1868

                    • Ramsay

                      Bismarck? That awful, awful man who pioneered the welfare state and secular state education.

                      What on earth makes you think the average Australian voter is a mysoginist?

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Ramsay lol Abbott as Minister of Womens affairs lol

                      I guess he didn’t want to overload his single female Cabinet Minister

                  • Tracey

                    you’re being selective about bismarck despite bringing him up first.

                    what makes you think they aren’t? Taking Abbott’s lead of course.

                    • Ramsay

                      I’m not being selective, I think Bismarck was a skilled political operator who pioneered not a few good things. You’re the one who used him as a slur.

                      And speaking of slurs – sorry, I think that if you allege that an electorally significant sector of Australia’s population is ‘mysoginist’ then there’s an onus on you to prove it.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      You think your pretty distractions are worth a damn? It seems like the average Oz Liberal party leader doesn’t think women can handle Cabinet. Let’s work from there, shall we?

                    • Rogue Trooper

                      Game On!

                    • Ramsay

                      I don’t think the average Australian is mysoginst. They elected Julia Gillard and, guess what? They probably had a fair idea of her sex then.

                      I would agree that gender politics is probably not high on the list of priorities of the average Australian voters – and so probably factors in very low in the election outcome. However, I don’t think that makes them sexist and I would wager that most NZ voters probably feel the same way.

                    • ZET

                      Bismark. A model for liberally minded political activists..

                      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Socialist_Laws

                    • Colonial Viper

                      “They elected Julia Gillard” is the best you can do? Did you sleep through the last 18 months of sexist attacks that she endured?

                      Regardless this is all a nice distraction; the next 2 months worth of polling will be telling. Even the next Roy Morgan will have been taken partially before the leadership result was announced.

                    • ZET

                      Bismark?!? A model for what precisely?

                      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck#Historiography_and_memory

                      “Gerwarth argues that the constructed memory of Bismarck played a central role as an anti-democratic myth in the highly ideological battle over the past which raged between 1918 and 1933. This myth proved to be a weapon against the Weimar Republic, and exercised a destructive influence on the political culture of the first German democracy. Frankel (2005) shows the Bismarck cult fostered and legitimized a new style of right-wing politics, and made possible the post-Bismarckian crisis of leadership, both real and perceived, that had Germans seeking the strongest possible leader and asking, “What Would Bismarck Do?” ”

                      and:

                      “Bismarck’s psychology and personal traits have not been so favourably received by scholars. The American historian Jonathan Steinberg portrays a malign genius who was deeply vengeful, even toward his closest friends and family members. Evans says he was “intimidating and unscrupulous, playing to others’ frailties, not their strengths.”[81] British historians, including Evans, Taylor, Palmer and Crankshaw, see Bismarck as an ambivalent figure, undoubtedly a man of great skill but who left no lasting system in place to guide successors less skilled than himself. Being a committed monarchist himself, Bismarck allowed no effective constitutional check on the power of the Emperor, thus placing a time bomb in the foundation of the Germany that he created.
                      During most of his nearly 30 year-long tenure, Bismarck held undisputed control over the government’s policies. He was well supported by his friend Albrecht von Roon, the war minister, as well as the leader of the Prussian army Helmuth von Moltke. Bismarck’s diplomatic moves relied on a victorious Prussian military, and these two men gave Bismarck the victories he needed to convince the smaller German states to join Prussia.
                      Bismarck took steps to silence or restrain political opposition, as evidenced by laws restricting the freedom of the press, and the anti-socialist laws. He waged a culture war (Kulturkampf) against the Catholic Church until he realized the conservatism of the Catholics made them natural allies against the Socialists.”

                    • ZET

                      More on Bismark..

                      “The government tried to Germanize the state’s national minorities, situated mainly in the borders of the empire, such as the Danes in the North of Germany, the French of Alsace-Lorraine and the Poles in the East of Germany. He pursued an extremely hostile policy concerning the Poles[40] furthering enmity between the German and Polish peoples. The policies were motivated by Bismarck’s view that Polish existence was a threat to the German state. Bismarck compared Polish population to animals that need to be shot and privately confessed that he would like to exterminate them ”

                      Does this bring to mind the policies of another German chancellor of the 1930’s?

            • McFlock 31.1.1.1.2.2

              “living history”?
              Try here or here .
              “One of the most popular political entities in living history” would be valid, unless you count “Government coalition” as an “entity” in which case you’re screwed. But “the most popular political entity in living history” is hype built on faith rather than reason.

              • Ramsay

                Ok – you got me. There might be a little hype in that and I hope I’m not betraying too much personal detail by disclosing that my own political living memory doesn’t extend past the 1993 election. And it’s certainly a valid claim for the MMP era.

                But instead of dissecting every sentence in my comment, I’ll just reiterate my main points:

                1- National has had a high ceiling and a high basement lately. The relative unpopularity of Goff, Shearer and asset sales did not stop nearly 5 out of every 10 Kiwis saying the wanted a Key administration more often than not. There are other parties that could have benefited. They didn’t.

                2- A bump in the polls is a welcome but expected sign. If you pin too much on it not settling back down you’re going to be in for a disappointment when it does. And I think it will.

                3- It will take a sustained effort and – yes, political skill – to remake the political ground in a way that fundamentally alters the calculas of NZ politics. The govt may or may not help this – but it will take more than a fresh face and a hyped-up party base. Just ask President Romney.

                • Tracey

                  calculus? I sucked at calculus.

                • McFlock

                  The only reason the national party have high support (which they do) is because their coalition partners have imploded to sub-threshold levels and national absorbed the support as the only alternative. The “left” is served by more diversity in electoral options, with winstonfirst occupying a narrow middle ground.

                  This is not a sign of national’s strength. This is their achilles heel. Unless a couple of credible coalition partners emerge for national, their success is doubtful in 2014 and highly unlikely thereafter, especially as the status quo will shift leftwards again.

                  Labour, the Greens and Mana are all looking to go full left, because partial left merely trod water. Their main differences are simply how hard each will press the accelerator.

                  • Ramsay

                    Or they could go into a (final) coalition with New Zealand First.

                    • McFlock

                      possibly. If both parties have enough, and if key is prepared to sell out abjectly, obviously and comprehensively.

                    • Ramsay

                      Yeah – it would be the death knell. But I haven’t every heard of a politician who turned down office (well, I can think of one but wouldn’t get any credit for mentioning it).

                      Even Helen Clark placated that odious man with a ministerial limo to ensure another 3 years of Labour government.

            • karol 31.1.1.1.2.3

              Ramsay, your stats look like party vote stats and treats them in First Past the Post terms. You ignore the spread of votes among smaller parties.

              That really doesn’t give a true picture of election results in an MMP system

              • Ramsay

                What?

                • Colonial Viper

                  It means that National will get a strong 41.8% in 2014 and be annhilated out of Government.

                • Tracey

                  Oh dear, your mathematics isn’t found wanting or your application of statistics is it? Or your mathematics is correct but you deliberately ignored the actual parameters of MMP as opposed to FPP?

                  • Ramsay

                    Hadly, I just don’t this a N/NZF deal is unthinkable as the people who have somehow come to think of Winston Peters as being some sort of Left Wing Hero.

                    • Tracey

                      so never means when it suits me to this PM?

                      you need to meet srylands who has been mysteriously absent this past few days.

                    • Ramsay

                      Ok – you take John Key on his word at that.

                      Nice we know Labour can relax now. Had thought it would be hard work – so who would have thought it would be a simple matter of selecting David Cunliffe as leader of the party. That’s the election done then.

                    • McFlock

                      Peters has never been a left wing hero.

                      But he has pretty much always been an old-style conservative, not a neoliberal. He also plays to the support and welfare of his constituency (goldcard, anyone?). All factors that suggest a deal with national is unlikely, even if the nats get 43% and winston gets 6%. For example, partial assets sales ended his coalition with shitley.

                    • Ramsay

                      So he’ll go in as the guy who stopped asset sales AND kept the Greens out of office.

                      Peters went with them in 1996 and since then he’s been pretty consistent in his view that saying the party that got the most votes should try to form the next government. Baring a miracle, that will be National.

                    • McFlock

                      I’m not sure how willing the nats are to suspend their agenda just to stay in government – brownlee maybe, but collins?

    • Puddleglum 31.2

      Hi Ramsay,

      Somebody said that Shearer got a bump at the same rate which is a little bit disconcerting if true.

      Here is the Herald Digipoll results for the past few years, excluding the latest.

      The November, 2011 poll results look like the election results (see here for the exact percentages on the election website). That means that Shearer’s ‘bump’ was from the election result (when people actually cast a vote) not from the previous Digipoll.

      The previous Digipoll had Labour on 29.1%, down from 30.3% prior to the election campaign. That makes the Shearer ‘bump’ about 3% over the previous, non-election campaign polling.

      I’m not sure how you come to the conclusion that gaining a ‘bump’ – even one similar to Shearer’s – is “disconcerting”. This ‘bump’ is into the high 30s so it builds on the ‘Shearer bump’.

      • Ramsay 31.2.1

        Yeah – except it won’t be enough.

        • Colonial Viper 31.2.1.1

          lolz yes it will! LAB 36% GR 13% makes the government, mate.

          • Ramsay 31.2.1.1.1

            Assuming it stays at 36%

            • McFlock 31.2.1.1.1.1

              Except that the categorical statement “it won’t be enough” is an equally bold assertion that the left won’t maintain that level of support.

              What we can state is that it’s a plausible assumption that the left is currently ahead of the tories, so merely need to maintain that position rather than gaining ground from behind.

  32. greywarbler 32

    Don’t know what you have against dirt. I’m just going to put some seeds in mine. Just one of my pre-conceptions about useful things to do with dirt.

    And I thought that NACTs were a farming party built on the stuff. Another pre-conception.

    It seems that they have wandered away from the true path of stalwart, upright, hard-working and honest men (and good-looking sexy other gender supporters) who represent all that is good in this fine country of – ours, theirs, his, hers?

  33. bad12 33

    Being a Green Party member what is also pleasing about this poll is the rise in the Labour vote which has not cannibalized that Green % of the vote,

    In fact the Green Party has risen slightly, (08%), in this latest poll and should these numbers hold up into 2014 it means i can allow my vote to float across to the Mana Party,

    There is a slight chance that the Mana Party could have 3 MP’s in the next Parliament and while many of us are tribal in nature with our votes we also must give some thought to the ongoing health of ‘the left’,

    MMP means coalitions so we need a strong Labour Party which has a natural constituency in the 38-40% area of popular support but it is also vital that we grow parties of the left, National in it’s present perceived predicament being the classic template for what can occur when the punishment of small parties at the hands of the electorate leaves the larger party with ‘no friends’,

    i expect the Maori Party to disappear at the 2014 election and my hope is that smart Maori will vote strategically with their Electorate and their Party Votes, there is still a chance that NZFirst will be a figure in the next Parliament but after that i fully expect Winston to retire and that party also cease to exist,

    Upcoming polls this year and into the new year of 2014 will tell us how much room there is for ‘strategic voting’ at the 2014 election and i suggest those not totally tribal with their votes spend a little thought on such voting with a view to the make up of left Governments well past the next election…

  34. Pete 34

    A very pleasing sign. National’s only circuit breaker between now and the election is the budget. Expect them to go hard around that.

  35. paul scott 35

    [deleted]

    [karol: I thought this guy was on a week's ban.]

    [lprent: Ban doubled to two weeks. He obviously hasn't read the policy. ]

  36. Colonial Viper 36

    So is “Ramsay” the upgraded “Shitlands”?

    They are a bit harder to spot without the rubber skin, best keep a few dogs around.

  37. charles kinbote 37

    Yes, the 1984 Government devalued us by 20%. Act now send money to foreign currency, expected devaluation 15% in one year

    • Colonial Viper 37.1

      Which “foreign currency” would you recommend buying then? The US dollar, which is currently being printed at the rate of US$45B per month via quantitative easing?

      How about the Japanese yen, a currency being printed by a country undergoing demographic collapse, an expanding nuclear disaster, and an insolvent government?

      There is always the GBP. This is a currency also being printed by the country’s central bank, in an economy completely captured by (and highly responsible for) the previous Global Financial Crisis.

      Then you have the Euro. A single currency which pretends it is still one currency, except that a Euro held in a country like Greece or Cypress is actually worth far less than a German euro. Go figure.

      So come on mate, give us your recommendations for capital flight and currency safety.

      One last point: anyone who has so much money but won’t invest it in creating NZ jobs and would prefer to hold it in foreign currencies probably deserves to lose their NZ passport and be exiled to those countries. They can invest their monies offshore just as we can divest ourselves of them offshore.

      Cya.

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    Greens | 15-10
  • Councils need to better protect our drinking water
    Environment Canterbury (ECan) is proposing several variations to its regional land and water plan that will allow for increased nutrient and other pollution from irrigation and intensive agriculture on the Canterbury Plains. Commissioners are hearing submissions on Variation 1 to...
    Greens | 15-10
  • National needs to commit to making NZ workers safe
    The National Government must do more to help make New Zealand workplaces a safer place to work in, Green Party industrial relations spokesperson Denise Roche said today.Data released by Statistics New Zealand today showed that workers in the fishing and...
    Greens | 15-10
  • Key commits to deployment before consultation or analysis
    John Key’s offer to consult Opposition parties on whether to deploy New Zealand forces against ISIS looks increasingly like a PR exercise only, says Labour’s Defence spokesperson, Phil Goff. “The presence of New Zealand’s Chief of Defence Force at a...
    Labour | 15-10
  • National must end ideological opposition to raising income
    If John Key is serious about tackling child poverty he must approach it with an open mind, and overcome his ideological block to raising incomes as a solution, the Green Party said today.Papers released to Radio New Zealand today show...
    Greens | 14-10
  • Pentagon links climate change and terrorism
    Yesterday the Pentagon launched a plan to deal with a threat that “poses immediate risks to national security”; one that “will affect the Department of Defense’s ability to defend the nation”. It wasn’t referring to Ebola or ISIS. It was...
    Greens | 14-10
  • Four Nominees for Labour’s Leadership
    As at 5pm today four valid nominations had been received for the position of Labour Leader, as follows: Andrew Little(nominated by Poto Williams and Iain Lees-Galloway) Nanaia Mahuta(nominated by Louisa Wall and Su’a William Sio) David Parker(nominated by Damien O’Connor...
    Labour | 14-10
  • Green Party calls for consultation over terrorism law changes
    The Green Party has today written to the Prime Minister asking him to engage in wider consultation prior to changing any laws as a result of the recently announced terrorism law reviews, said the Green Party today. In a letter...
    Greens | 14-10
  • MPI must name product and supermarket chain
    The Ministry of Primary Industries must name the product responsible for severe gastroenteritis affecting people around the country, and the supermarket chain distributing it, Labour’s Food Safety spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “The Ministry seems to be more concerned about protecting...
    Labour | 13-10
  • John Key dishonest about reasons for wanting to change terrorism law
    John Key is misleading the public to push through terrorism law changes under urgency, the Green Party said today. On Sunday, John Key stated that it is not illegal for someone to fight overseas for a terrorist group, such as...
    Greens | 12-10
  • Law changes shaping up to be worse than first thought
    The Prime Minister needs to be up front about exactly what changes he is planning to make to the Employment Relations  Amendment Bill, Labour's spokesperson on Labour Issues Andrew Little says.Interviewed on Q&A yesterday John Key said he did not...
    Labour | 12-10
  • Rapists, not Tinder, the threat to women
    Blame for rape and sexual assault should only ever be laid at the door of the perpetrator, not dating services or the actions of women themselves, Labour’s Associate Police spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. “Tinder is not the problem and women...
    Labour | 09-10
  • Safer Journeys For People Who Cycle
    You have a rare opportunity to tell the people who are making the decisions on cycling how to make it better. The Cycling Safety Panel is seeking feedback on their draft recommendations for improving the safety of cycling in New...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Subsidising more pollution will undermine water clean-up plan at Te Waihora...
    In 2010, NIWA found Canterbury’s Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere had the worst nutrient status of 140 lakes around New Zealand that it measured. In 2011, the National Government committed to spending $15 million across the country through the Fresh Start for...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Adding value not herbicides
    The HT swedes, and other brassicas, might seem like a good idea to farmers struggling against weeds but like the GE road, is this the path we want our agriculture to be treading? The Federated Farmers President, Dr William Rolleston...
    Greens | 07-10
  • ‘Blame the Planner’ bizarre approach to child poverty
    The National Government is stooping to a bizarre new low in blaming "planning processes" for poverty and inequality, after spending six years doing nothing about either the housing market or child poverty, the Green Party said today. Finance Minister Bill...
    Greens | 07-10
  • Media Advisory
    MANA Leader, Hone Harawira will not be available to speak with media today regarding his release “Recount Just One Step To restoring Credibility”. He is however available for media comment tomorrow, Tuesday the 8th of October, all media arrangements are...
    Mana | 07-10
  • RECOUNT JUST ONE STEP TO RESTORING CREDIBILITY
    “I have applied for a judicial recount of the votes in the Tai Tokerau election because it is one step in trying to restore credibility to the electoral process in the north, and, I suspect, in all other Maori electorates...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA SEEKS TAI TOKERAU RECOUNT
    The MANA Movement is supporting Leader Hone Harawira’s application for a judicial re-count in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate for the 2014 general election. President Lisa McNab says there are a number of serious issues of concern regarding the ability...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA to fight mass privatisation of state housing
    Announcements over the past 12 hours from the Minister responsible for Housing New Zealand, Bill English, and Minister for Social Housing, Paula Bennett, make clear the government’s intention for the mass privatisation of state housing. This comes during the middle...
    Mana | 07-10
  • Journalists have right to protect sources
    Legal authorities must respect the right of journalist Nicky Hager to protect the source of his material for his Dirty Politics book under Section 68 of the Evidence Act, Acting Labour Leader David Parker says. “It is crucial in an...
    Labour | 06-10
  • It shouldn’t take the Army to house the homeless
    National’s move to speed up its state house sell-off shows it is bankrupt of new ideas, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “National has been in office for six years, yet the housing crisis has got worse every month and...
    Labour | 06-10
  • Government must lift social housing supply, not shuffle the deck chairs
    National's decision to shift the state provision of housing to third parties is a smokescreen for the Government decreasing the provision of affordable housing, the Green Party said today."What National should be doing is increasing the supply of both social...
    Greens | 06-10
  • Election 2014 – the final count
    While we have to wait for the final booth level counts we can now see how well we did in the specials and look at electorate level data. First off special votes (and disallowed/recounted votes etc). There was a change...
    Greens | 06-10
  • We need more houses, not Ministers
    The Government’s decision to have three housing Ministers will create a dog’s breakfast of the portfolio and doesn’t bode well for fixing the country’s housing crisis, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New Zealanders need more houses, not more Ministers....
    Labour | 05-10
  • MANA’S CHALLENGE TO THE 51st PARLIAMENT
    Ten years ago I led 50,000 Maori on the historic FORESHORE AND SEABED MARCH from Te Rerenga Wairua to the very steps of this parliament, in a march against the greatest land grab in the history of this country –...
    Mana | 03-10
  • Is this really necessary?
    No one denies chief executives should be well paid for their skills and experience, but it is the efforts of all employees which contribute to company profits, Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker says. “Salaries paid to chief executives come at...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Lyttelton Port workers also deserve pay rises
    Hard slog by Lyttelton Port workers contributed to strong financial growth for the company and they deserve to be rewarded for their work as much as its chief executive, says Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker. “Lyttelton Port chief executive Peter...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Māori Party must seek guarantees on Māori seats
    Labour is calling on the Māori Party to ensure protection of the Māori seats is part of its coalition deal with National which is being considering this weekend, Labour’s Māori Affairs spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says. “For the third consecutive term,...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Donaghys job losses another blow to Dunedin
    The loss of 30 jobs from Donaghys rope and twine factory is yet another blow to the people and economy of Dunedin, says Dunedin South Labour MP Clare Curran. “Donaghys was founded in 1876; the company has survived two world...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Dairy price fall shows urgent need to diversify
    The overnight drop in milk prices shows New Zealand’s overreliance on the dairy industry puts our economy in a vulnerable position, says Acting Labour Leader David Parker. “Dairy prices fell 7.3 per cent overnight and have almost halved since February....
    Labour | 02-10
  • Tasks aplenty for new Health Minister
    One of the first jobs for the new Minister of Health must be to provide an honest and transparent report into surgery waiting times and exactly how many Kiwis are not having their health needs met, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Previewing the 4 candidates for Leader of the Labour Party
    The extraordinary outbursts by Shearer last week highlights just how toxic that Caucus is. Shearer was on every major media platform as the ABC attack dog tearing into Cunliffe in the hope of diminishing Cunliffe’s support of Little by tearing...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – the sudden explosion of ‘left’ blogs
    Time to Teach or more people will suffer from P.A.I.D. Political And Intellectual Dysmorphia.I was on the Twitter and a guy followed me so of course I did the polite thing and followed him back. He wrote a blog so...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Ego vs Eco
    Ego vs Eco...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • We can’t let the Roastbuster case slip away
    Those of us (like me) left with hope that the police would aggressively follow through on the large amount of evidence on offer to them (let’s not forget they forgot they even had some at one point) in the Roastbusters...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Food, shelter and medicine instead of bombs and bullets
    The on-going conflict across the Middle East – due in large part to the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – has created another humanitarian crisis of biblical proportion. The essentials of life are desperately needed in Iraq and Syria...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • The politics of electorate accommodations
    National’s electorate accommodations with ACT and United Future were a big factor in it winning re-election. Interestingly, there is another electorate accommodation scenario whereby the centre-left could have come out on top, even with the same distribution of party votes....
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Why you should join the TPPA Action on 8 November
    On 8 November 2014, thousands of Kiwis will take part in the International Day of Action to protest the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). The rally cry for us is TPPA – Corporate Trap, Kiwis Fight Back. Why should you join...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG – Patrick O’Dea: no new coal mines
    Green Party and Mana Party policy is “NO NEW COAL MINES!” Auckland Coal Action is trying to put this policy into action on the ground. ACA after a hard fought two year campaign waged alongside local residents and Iwi, in...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Comparing Police action – Hager raid vs Roast Buster case
    This satire had the NZ Police contact TDB and threaten us with 6months in prison for using their logo.   The plight of Nicky Hager and the draconian Police actions against him has generated over  $53 000 in donations so...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Malala Yousafzai, White Saviour Complexes and Local Resistance
    Last week, Malala Yousafzai was the co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Since her exposure to the worldwide spotlight, her spirit, wisdom and strength have touched the hearts of people everywhere. However, there have been cynics who have argued that...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Jason Ede is back – but no media can interview him?
    Well, well, well. Jason Ede, the main figure connected to John Key’s office and the Dirty Politics black ops is back with a company with deep ties to the National Party. One thing you can say about the right –...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Leadership Transitions In Other Parties: A ...
    As cannot have escaped anyone’s attention by now, the country is presently in the grips of an election and campaign that will help determine the fate of the nation for years to come. It’s gripping stuff – with clear divides...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • SkyCity worker says she faces losing her house
    SkyCity worker Carolyn Alpine told the company annual shareholder’s meeting today that she faced the prospect of losing her house because the company had cut her shifts from two a week to one without consultation. The solo mother, has worked...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • Greg O’Connor’s latest push to arm cops & 5 reasons not to
    I was wondering at what point within a 3rd term of National that Police Cheerleader Greg O’Connor would start trying to demand cops be armed. O’Connor must have thought to himself, ‘if bloody Key can get us and the GCSB vast new...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • You can’t have crisis without ISIS
    So the new scary bogeyman ISIS might have chemical weapons that the US secretly found in Iraq, but America didn’t want to expose this find because the WMDs were actually built and made by the US and Europe, the two powers...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • NZ WINS UN SPIN THE BOTTLE! Privately sucking up to America for a decade me...
    Oh, we are loved! Little old NZ, the 53rd state of America after Israel and Australia, gets to sit at the adults table for the special dinner party that is the UN Security Council. How delightful, a decade of privately...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • MEDIA BLOG – Myles Thomas – A World Without Advertising
    Non-commercial broadcasting and media. It’s a solution for all manner of problems ailing our tender nation… voter engagement, unaccountable governance, apathy, stupefaction, public education, science in schools, arts appreciation, cultural cringe… But no-one could’ve guessed that non-commercial media might solve...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October
    March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • Whack a mole as US govt foreign policy
    Whack-A-Mole was a popular arcade game from my youth.  It consisted of a waist high cabinet with holes in the top. Plastic moles seemingly randomly pop out of these holes. The purpose of the game was to hit as many...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • In Paean of Debt
    This week is ‘Money Week’. It’s an opportunity to promote to the middle classes, and anyone else who will listen, the virtues of wise ‘investment’. The aims are to promote the mystical (and indeed mythical) virtues of saving for the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • The last 48 hours – Poverty denial, war denial and unapologetic abuse of ...
    The bewildering speed of events that simply end in Key shrugging and proclaiming he doesn’t really give a shit is coming think and fast as the Government suddenly appreciate the full spectrum dominance they now enjoy. Here is Radio NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Mana 2.0 Rebooted
    Internationally the news is that Evo Morales of Bolivia won big with Left Wing policies But what are the chances that the Left will make a resurgence in this country? As the internecine struggles between the Left and the Right...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Blomfield IPCA letter – Has Dirty Politics leaked into the NZ Police ...
    It’s difficult to know what to make of the IPCA letter to Matthew Blomfield over Slater’s continued insistence that the hard drive taken from Matthew wasn’t stolen.  Slater has selectively cherry picked the Police referring back to his claim that Blomfeild perjured...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • ​Media release: Rail and Maritime Transport Union – Auckland move for K...
    The Rail and Maritime Transport Union is questioning a KiwiRail proposal to progressively relocate its Zero Harm personnel from Wellington to Auckland. “The purpose of the Zero Harm team is to drive KiwiRail’s performance in health and safety.  Rail is a...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Amnesty International – Friend request from an IS militant
    There’s always that one person, that one Facebook friend, usually a musician or event promoter, who, when you so foolishly accept their friend request, will completely inundate your news feed with copious event invitations and promotions. The person who, despite...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • NZ should follow the UK and recognize the Palestinian state
    Over the past two weeks, the United Kingdom and Sweden have made headlines through their decisions to recognize the state of Palestine. They are hardly the first nations to do so. Indeed, 134 countries have, in various ways, given formal...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Discordant Chimes of Freedom: Why Labour has yet to be forgiven.
    WHY DOES THE ELECTORATE routinely punish Labour and the Greens for their alleged “political correctness” but not National? It just doesn’t seem fair. Consider, for example, the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007 – the so-called “anti-smacking legislation” –...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Hosking or Henry – Which right wing crypto fascist clown do you want to w...
    So Mediaworks are finally going to make some actual money from their eye watering contract with Paul Henry by launching a new multi-platform Breakfast show over TV, Radio and internet. This is great news for Campbell Live who have dodged...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Families need more money to reduce child poverty
    Prime Minister John Key is mistaken to rule out extending the In Work Tax Credit to all poor children (The Nation 11th Oct) and Child Poverty Action Group challenges government advisors to come up with a more cost effective way...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – Don’t shit on my dream
    Once were dreamers. A large man, walks down the road and, even from 200 yards there’s light showing between his big arms and bigger body. It’s as if he’s put tennis balls under his arms. Two parking wardens walk out...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Labour and ‘special interests’
    The media narrative of Labour is that it is unpopular because it’s controlled by ‘special interests’. This ‘special interests’ garbage is code for gays, Maoris, wimin and unionists. We should show that argument the contempt it deserves. The next Labour...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Ru...
    . . Continued from: Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Tahi) . National’s housing development project: ‘Gateway’ to confusion . Perhaps nothing better illustrates National’s lack of a coherent housing programme than the ‘circus’ that is...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Here’s what WINZ are patronisingly saying to people on welfare when they ...
    Yesterday, a case manager from WINZ called to tell me that I needed to “imagine what I would do if I did not have welfare”. I replied “Well, I guess if I couldn’t live at home, I would be homeless.”...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • David Shearer’s ‘no feminist chicks’ mentality highlights all that is...
    Mr Nasty pays a visit Shearer’s extraordinary outburst last night on NZs favourite redneck TV, The Paul Henry Show, is a reminder of all that is wrong within the Labour Caucus right now… He said the current calls for a female or...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0
    Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – A Tale Of Two Cities
    Sunday was surreal. I went for a drive and ended up in a different country. It wasn’t intentional but those days of too many literally intertextual references seldom are. There is no doubt that the Sunday drive this week had...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Key raises terror threat level to justify war in Iraq and now the SIS need ...
    Have we learned nothing from rushing into war? It’s embarrassing Key has raised our terror threat from ‘very low’ to ‘low’ so he can justify military action in Iraq. Watching him pimp for an American war is as sick as...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Socialism? in France; Austerity in Europe
    On Sunday I stumbled upon this recent New York Times column The Fall of France by Paul Krugman. Then I caught BBC’s Newsnight interview with France’s ‘Socialist’ Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Krugman notes that the Socialists came to power on an anti-austerity mandate, but completely squandered their opportunity...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • So Snowden and Greenwald were right – again – NZ Embassies spying for A...
    Well, well, well. What do we have here… NZ embassies involved in covert intelligence work for US – reportsNew Zealand’s embassies have been involved in covert intelligence gathering work on behalf of the United States, a fresh batch of classified...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Why David Parker *isn’t* a credible choic...
    The one electoral contest this year that a Labour leader is sure to win heated up over the weekend with the late entry of Finance Spokesman (and interim caretaker leader) David Parker into Labour’s leadership race. I’d blogged late last...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Fran O’Sullivan’s extraordinary column
    Note how the carefully constructed flow chart above ignores the mainstream media’s complicity with Slater and Dirty Politics    I am no fan of Fran O’Sullivan’s politics and would argue long into the day against her on many of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Final salute to Cunliffe
    Final salute to Cunliffe...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • David Cunliffe’s statement
    I am today announcing that I have decided not to nominate for the 2014 Labour Party leadership contest. It has been a hard decision to make but it is one that I believe is in the best interests of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Cunliffe to quit leadership race – the losers are the Labour Party member...
    That’s all folks   And so ends the first ever Labour Party member/affiliates choice for leadership. David Cunliffe is standing down at 2pm and is supporting Andrew Little instead. What a perverse turn of events. Cunliffe was punished by an angry Labour leadership forced...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Want to see new Nu Zilind? Read the comments section of Andrea Vance’s co...
    Andrea Vance is no stooge. She is one of the few mainstream media voices who has challenged power and authority, her latest column on the outrageous attempts by Key to use fear mongering to  spook the sleepy hobbits into war...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Humanity calling Government – anyone with empathy home?
    On Friday night groups of Invercargill activists and plain ole people who care took part in the 14 Hours Homeless event – sleeping out in the balmy southern climate on cardboard and couches at our Salvation Army Citadel. It’s a...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Labour, leadership and White blokes
    David Shearer said on TV3’s The Nation this weekend that he appreciated the support Labour’s received from Maori and Pacific communities over the last few elections, but that it was important to again, secure the votes of ordinary white blokes...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Wrong priorities in media coverage of Ebola crisis
    The experts have told us that there is very little likelihood of a serious Ebola outbreak in any Western nation – unless the virus changes so that it can be spread through the air rather than just via bodily fluids....
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • John Key uses the same old warmongering recipe
    Less than three weeks after the election Prime Minister John Key wants New Zealand to join a war in the Middle East and extend the powers of our US-focused spy agencies the SIS (Security Intelligence Service) and the GCSB (Government...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – shifting focus: towards building an effective ...
    It has now been three weeks since the election, and we on the left are still in the phase of trying to figure out what went wrong.  That can be a useful exercise depending on how it’s done, especially if...
    The Daily Blog | 11-10
  • iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update
    Andrew Little’s probability of being the next leader of the Labour Party has reached 70% and Jacinda Ardern is favourite to become his deputy, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Prison Drug Treatment Unit marks a milestone
    Christchurch Men’s Prison’s Drug Treatment Unit (DTU) celebrated the completion of its 50th six month Drug and Alcohol Programme today, with the graduation of a further twelve offenders....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Security Council seat a chance for NZ to empower women
    The UN Women National Committee Aotearoa New Zealand (UN Women NCANZ) welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use its position to proactively promote effective implementation of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Waipareira and ACC sign Partnership
    Waipareira and The Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding at Whanau Centre, Henderson – marking a special day for the West Auckland Urban Maori organisation....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Humanitarian aid desperately needed in Iraq and Syria
    Global Peace and Justice Auckland is calling on the government to provide humanitarian funding for non-aligned NGOs (non-governmental organisations) in the Middle East rather than give any support whatever for the US-led military campaign in the area....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Court Judicial Decision: Dotcom v The USA: 17 October 2014
    The United States of America is seeking the extradition of Messrs Dotcom, Batato, Ortmann and Van Der Kolk. The matter has been before the Courts on numerous occasions, and no further recitation of the facts is needed....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Marshall Island poet speaks at UN climate summit
    “The fossil fuel industry is the biggest threat to our very existence as Pacific Islanders. We stand to lose our homes, our communities and our culture. But we are fighting back. This coming Friday thirty Pacific Climate Warriors, joined by...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Many tourist car accidents preventable
    Simple steps could dramatically reduce the number of accidents involving tourists, says the car review website dogandlemon.com ....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • RainbowYOUTH: 25 Years, 25 More
    In 1989, a group of young people in Auckland got together to form a support group for LGBTIQ youth. They called it Auckland Lesbian And Gay Youth (ALGY). After 25 years, several location changes, a name change, a brand reboot...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Outdated Oath shows need for Kiwi Head of State
    MPs are sworn in today and New Zealand Republic has written to MPs asking them to talk about why 121 New Zealanders elected by the people of New Zealand and standing in the New Zealand Parliament swear allegiance to another...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Council shouldn’t revenue grab from windfall valuations
    Auckland Council should state clearly they will not try and capture revenue as a result of the latest valuations and needs reminding that the City’s skyrocketing property values doesn’t change the level or cost of Council’s services, says...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • EPMU endorses Andrew Little for Labour leadership
    The National Executive of the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union unanimously endorsed Andrew Little for the role of Labour leader, at a meeting held yesterday. “I have been speaking to our workplace delegates at forums across the country over...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • World Food Day promotes Agroecology not GE technology
    The UN has stated that agroecology is a major solution to feeding the world and caring for the earth....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Labour Names Review Team
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review. He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Contenders for Labour leadership debate for first time
    The contenders for the leadership of the Labour Party debated for the first time on TV One’s Q+A programme today....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • UN Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme
    New Zealand's United Nations Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme....
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully
    Murray McCully says New Zealanders can expect a 5-10 year engagement against Islamic State if we join military action in Iraq and the government will take that “very carefully into account”...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard says there is “sufficient evidence” to fight Islamic State and does not think it will increase the risk of a domestic attack...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • NZ businesses to make child abuse a priority conversation
    Many leading New Zealand businesses have partnered with national child advocacy organisation Child Matters to participate in the fourth annual ‘Buddy Day’ - New Zealand’s only child abuse prevention awareness day....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Tribunal decision significant for SMEs
    The Human Rights Review Tribunal decided this week in favour of an employee’s right not to work on Saturdays for religious reasons. The decision may still be appealed but the Director of the Office of Human Rights Proceedings, Robert Kee,...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • On The Nation this weekend
    This weekend on The Nation… New Zealand has been elected to the United Nations Security Council, but what happens next? Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully from New York about our goals for reform, what America wants from us...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • 1000+ supported by Te Arawa Whanau Ora
    Over 1000 individual whānau members are leading happier, healthier, more successful lives as a result of eight passionate and committed Māori organisations working at the coalface to help whānau find success....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Nomination for Board Members Now Open
    CRF’s objective is to create opportunities for people from refugee backgrounds to lead fulfilling lives and contribute to every area of New Zealand society. It is an organisation that undertakes advocacy work using the strengths-based approach,...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Anglican Family Care Otago staff to take industrial action
    Social workers, family workers and support staff working for Anglican Family Care in Dunedin and South Otago will take industrial action after their employer refused a pay increase that would keep up with the rising cost of living....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Use UN Security Council role to overcome inaction and injust
    Amnesty International welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the UN Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use the role to ensure the body lives up to its role of safeguarding global peace and security....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Grisham’s ‘child porn’ comments ignorant
    World-renowned author John Grisham has come under fire by advocacy group Stop Demand Foundation, for comments it says trivialises the global child sex abuse trade....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Latest leak of TPPA intellectual property text confirms risk
    On the eve of the latest (non)round of negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) yet another version of the intellectual property has found its way to Wikileaks ....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • New Zealand awarded UN Security Council seat
    International aid agency Oxfam New Zealand welcomes New Zealand’s election to the United Nations Security Council, saying it gives an extraordinary opportunity to make a lasting contribution to international peace and security and improve the lives...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • 40 more jobs lost to cheap imports
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Pink Batts manufacturer to cut Christchurch jobs
    Pink Batts manufacturer to cut Christchurch jobs 29 roles are to be cut at the Christchurch manufacturing facility of Tasman Insulation, the company which manufacturers the iconic Pink Batts brand of products. The company is proposing to consolidate its...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Kellogg cereal donations help the Sallies feed those in need
    Kellogg New Zealand commits 64,000 serves of breakfast cereal during World Food Day Coinciding with World Food Day this year, Kellogg New Zealand and The Salvation Army are reaching out to less fortunate Kiwis with the donation of 64,000 serves...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • National Slips, Labour Hits Lows
    National fail to get post-election bounce but leaderless Labour Party crash to lowest ever support...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZ parents hope for more than just happy and healthy babies
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZPI backs Minister’s affordable housing stance
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Prime Minister’s OIA Admision Disturbing
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZDIA forum press release
    NZDIA forum press release Wellington - The New Zealand Defence Industry Association, with the support of the NZ Defence Force and the Ministry of Defence, will be holding a two-day international forum on October 21-22 at the Michael Fowler Centre...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • BPW NZ calls fashion industry to account
    The New Zealand Federation of Business and Professional Women (BPW NZ) joins the call for action on the use of skinny models and mannequins as it is directly affecting the self-esteem and health of many of our young people....
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Electoral Commission introduces Extra Touch for Blind NZers
    The Electoral Commission was presented with the Extra Touch Award by the Association of Blind Citizens of New Zealand (Blind Citizens NZ), in recognition of its successful implementation of Telephone Dictation Voting ahead of its commitment to do so by...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Auckland move for KiwiRail health and safety team questioned
    The Rail and Maritime Transport Union is questioning a KiwiRail proposal to progressively relocate its Zero Harm personnel from Wellington to Auckland....
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Redundancies a result of putting profit over good business
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    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Injuries at work show many sectors are too dangerous
    Workers are deeply concerned about the research Statistics New Zealand have released today showing that almost one-quarter of agriculture, forestry, and fishery workers had a work-related injury claim accepted by the Accident Compensation Corporation...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Chatham Rise seabed hearing: the absence of evidence
    The phosphate on the seabed, 450m down on the Chatham Rise, has a particular quality that other phosphate doesn’t have: uranium....
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Office of Ombudsman making sure people treated fairly in NZ
    The Office of Ombudsman has told Parliament that it has made significant progress in effectively managing its work to make sure people are treated fairly in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 14-10
  • Food Matters Aotearoa Conference Press release
    This year the UN World food day theme is “Sustainable Food Systems for Food Security and Nutrition”, chosen to highlight and raise awareness of the problems worldwide and the solutions to food security and ridding the world of hunger. The...
    Scoop politics | 14-10
  • Support from Production, Recreation and Environment.
    When it comes to water quality not many organisations can claim to have the support of major bodies representing production, recreation and the environment, yet this is exactly what NZ Landcare Trust has achieved. The Trust's upcoming 'Communities...
    Scoop politics | 14-10
  • Law Society supports Malaysian Bar Peace and Freedom Walk
    The New Zealand Law Society has expressed its support for a planned Walk for Peace and Freedom by Malaysian lawyers protesting against continued use of the Sedition Act 1948 by the Malaysian government....
    Scoop politics | 14-10
  • Bunnies Offered Protection With New Technology
    SAFE is announcing the spring launch of its “bunny protector” – a new mobile phone app that will help shoppers on the go avoid animal-tested cosmetics products. Suitable for both iPhone and android, the ‘SAFEshopper Cruelty-free NZ’ app will...
    Scoop politics | 14-10
  • Maori Wellbeing – Defying the Oxymoron
    When Mother Teresa was asked how do you achieve world peace, she said, go home and love your family....
    Scoop politics | 14-10
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