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Last Roy Morgan of the year

Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, December 22nd, 2010 - 37 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national - Tags:

It’s First Past the Post thinking to look at the polling gap between National and Labour and conclude National will romp home. MMP is here and set to stay – it means the coalition with the support of a majority of MPs governs, not necessarily the largest party. The final Roy Morgan of the year lets us look at the trends in support for Left and Right.

So, what can we take from the Roy Morgans? The race is a lot closer than just looking at National and Labour’s numbers would suggest – and the gap is closing.

In this graph I’ve plotted the two major parties as well as ‘Right’ (National and ACT) and ‘Left’ (Labour, Progressives, Greens) over the past two years of Roy Morgans:


It doesn’t take a genius to see that there’s a turning point in mid/late 2009 and after that the gap begins to gradually close. Of course the numbers will jump around from poll to poll based on short-term events and normal statistical variation but compare the average Right v Left gap (this is the most important number to my mind) and net confidence in government figure for the four half years that National has been in power. I’ve projected the trend of the last three half-years into next year:

Average Right v Left gap Average net confidence in govt
1st half 09 14.5 47.2
2nd half 09 16.7 44.7
1st half 10 11.8 36.7
2nd half 10 10.3 32.2
1st half 11 6.5 25.4
2nd half 11 3.3 19.1

The gap is closing, gradually but surely. And it could be very close indeed by late 2011, which is why the smart money is on the election result being a lot closer than the current polls.

It would be foolish to say this process is inevitable, of course. And Labour’s leadership needs to pick up its act to get support into the 37-38% range where it needs to be. But the trend is away from National to the Left, that much is clear.

This makes me even more sure that Key won’t wait until November for an election. The gap is closing and there’s no reason to think it will turn around. If anything, Key had a lucky half year in the second half of 2010 with plenty of exceptional circumstances that favoured his smile and wave governance (the earthquake, for example) and the drop could resume more rapidly in 2011. Waiting until after the World Cup just throws in more unpredictable elements.

Finally, National knows that it will have sacrifice at least 5% of its support as the price of campaigning on issues like privatisation and cuts.

Whether or not the Left actually matches or overtakes the Right, it looks highly unlikely that National + ACT + Peter Dunne (if he makes it) will make a majority. Peters or the Maori Party become kingmakers in that situation and either of them could support a National-led or Labour-led government.

There’s a long way to go and it’s Labour, not the Greens, that will have to win back most of the extra support needed. That’s not impossible – most of the target voters have voted Labour in three of the past four elections. But they won’t get there if the campaign becomes a one-on-one personality contest and they have the more boring man in the room. Labour has to offer an exciting, radical economic vision to that not only works for the many but contrasts with the privatisation agenda offered by National that favours the few.

37 comments on “Last Roy Morgan of the year”

  1. TightyRighty 1

    haven’t you read the leaked cables about the current opposition? The only vision existent amongst the current crop of labour MP’s is for some more cheese rolls at bellamy’s. They can’t see past the end of their noses, and if they can, not past their fat guts.

    • higherstandard 1.1

      Shouldn’t that be…

      ‘haven’t you read the leaked cables about the MPs? The only vision existent amongst the current crop of MPs is for some more cheese rolls at bellamy’s. They can’t see past the end of their noses, and if they can, not past their fat guts.

  2. Come on TightyRighty

    Care to make a reality based comment for a change?

    Capcha stupid !!!

    • TightyRighty 2.1

      it is based on reality nub nub. Those cables said the current labour party mp’s lack vision and are afraid to go against the failed policies and vision of the clark-era. can’t get much more real than that SFB

  3. Santi 3

    It’s a long, long wait until 2014.

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      Yeah John Key will hate being back in Opposition so much he’s gonna jump ship way before 2014. And where will NAT be? Only Power shows any hope out of that entire bunch. Although I’m sure Paula Bennett has her eye on the top spot :roll:

  4. The Voice of Reason 4

    Nice work, Marty G. This confirms what I’ve been saying for yonks, which is that an early poll is on the cards. Key’s a gambler and he’ll want to go for the pot while he still holds a winning hand. April/May, before winter sets in and well before the RWC.

  5. Rob Salmond 5

    Marty

    I want you to be right about this, I really do. I have a strong preference for a left-leaning government, as I think you know. But the number crunching here isn’t persuasive. A linear regression with N=3 and a cherry-picked starting point, projected out way beyond the data? Really? I understand the need to project until election day, I suppose, but the other elements make it all pretty uninformative. Hell, even if I keep the cherry-picked starting point and the ballsy linear projection just use weekly left-right gaps from the Pundit Poll of Polls (incorporating Morgan, Colmar, TV3, and Herald data) rather than your N=3, I get a projected gap on election day of 5.9%, which is probably too big to bridge in the post-election negotiating room.

    I also get a projected right-leaning vote share of 49.3%. That is not a majority, but 50% has to be pretty close to the middle of that projection distribution, making the claim “it looks highly unlikely that National + ACT + Peter Dunne (if he makes it) will make a majority” look a bit dubious.

    I would just hate for folk in Labour and the Greens to see this trending exercise and say “great, we just need to keep doing what we’re doing, cos on current trends we’re in with an excellent shot.” The left needs a game changer of some description, because in my estimation the current path leads to defeat.

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      Thanks for verbalising the same unease I get looking at Marty’s numbers in a more sophisticated manner than I could’ve. The 10.3, 6.5, 3.3 series really looks out of place given the previous numbers.

    • Bright Red 5.2

      I don’t think we need to get too hung up on which regression is better – the point I take is the gap is closing and there’s no reason it can’t continue to close.

      I agree with Marty that Nat+ACT isn’t going to make a majority because they’re going to shed votes in the campaign on issues like privatisation.

      And I agree with you both that Labour will need to get more ballsy if it’s to win. I think that game change you’re talking about is the “exciting, radical economic vision” Marty raises.

    • lprent 5.3

      This projected numbers look a wee bit optimistic to me as well (well more than a wee bit). But the trend is in the right direction.

      Whichever way you look at it for the next election, I suspect it is largely going to be a matter of what minor parties get seats, how much overhang there is, and what percentages of votes are discarded under the 5% rules. I’ve been watching the ipredict steadily looking like a closer and closer race (once you read past the bullshit ‘analysis’ – feels like Hooten writes it). So I’d guess that other political people are feeling the same.

      At present it looks to me like both Act and UF are probably history at the electorate level. In UF’s case there is no particular party vote. But I suspect that Act will drop a few percent off the right. Progressive votes are likely to head largely to Labour as it winds up (but again not much vote).

      I suspect we’ll wind up in parliament with just Labour, National, Greens, and Maori party unless something interesting happens. I’d guess a likely overhang with the Maori party as they really don’t seem to budge from that percentage and the usual amount of strategic voting in the Maori electorates.

      I suspect it really comes down to how Labour perform in opposition and how many more times National screws up. But I’m picking a really tight election regardless when it is held. I’m still thinking a November election simply because voters get really unhappy with early elections without a cause. Of course either Act or the MP look like they could disintegrate internally and provide an excuse for National.

      • Herodotus 5.3.1

        All this analysis- is without any policy release from Lab and only a few catch phrases nothing to analysis if Labs proposals are a goer or yet another theoritical experiment thrusted onto the public with hope of it working attached.
        At least with Nat we know what we are getting, with Lab I and others are less cetain. I onl;y hope that time will reduce the uncertainity. perhaps Botany will be the test case to sample some of these potential policies.

        • mickysavage 5.3.1.1

          At least with Nat we know what we are getting

          You mean like the destruction of democratic institutions, privatisation of everything that has not been bolted down, destruction of long held workers rights, changes in policies to prevent us from becoming carbon neutral, mining of national parks, a continuous stream of bullsiht …

          • higherstandard 5.3.1.1.1

            Why don’t you run for parliament on the Nats ticket MS ?

            When it comes to a continuous stream of bullshit there’s few who aspire to public office that can hold a candle to you.

            • mickysavage 5.3.1.1.1.1

              HS

              I would rather have my lower limbs eaten slowly by rats than seeking public office on a National ticket.

              Care to address the post? Which of the following is not bullshit?

              1. The destruction of democratic institutions,
              2. Privatisation of everything that has not been bolted down,
              3. Destruction of long held workers rights,
              4. Changes in policies to prevent us from becoming carbon neutral,
              5. Mining of national parks,

              Examples and argument would be welcome.

              • higherstandard

                Why worry about your lower limbs wen your grey matter appears to already have been gnawed upon.

                1. We have as much/little democracy in NZ as we have had over the last several decades the ‘voter/public’ has fuck all say in anything apart from once every voting cycle and then it’s a choice amongst a parade of fools.

                2. Don’t be an ignoramus, NZ is and will remain quite a non-privatised country with government provision of those services which the public have come to expect to receive for ‘free’. The last true privatisations of any note/size occurred decades ago.

                3. I imagine you’re referring to the 90 day no fault law changes, meh if people don’t like it go to Australia, UK etc and get the same, imo that particular law has been a damp squib neither causing any great increase in employment or great outrages by employers on new employees.

                4. Yawn – it will make no difference to NZ if we become carbon neutral apart from a feel good factor and further hurting the economy in comparison to our international trading partners.

                5. From where I’m sitting there is no mining of national parks proceeding – more’s the pity as any discussion of mining seems to initiate bombastic utterances from far and wide which terminates any reasonable debate before it takes place.

                Regards c’est la vie have a good Xmas and New Year.

        • lprent 5.3.1.2

          A lot of the policy vacuum is the same with any major political opposition. You saw it strongly last election because National had lost twice by articulating policy early.

          You only release those parts that are unpalatable to your major opposing party prior to the campaign because they’ll pick them up and they have a lot more resource to get them done.

          You release most of the policy in the campaign or just before it.

          • Herodotus 5.3.1.2.1

            Yet as Lab are looking at completely changing the financial basis of this country- That has been established for over 25 years. Giving us a “few” weeks to take as close a look as the details that will be released. How then can we make an informed decision?
            My major concern regarding the expressed changes:
            What are they-details
            How are the transitions to be managed-to min profiteering from those that are able, capitial outflow, how will the banks finance. They are currently contributing more to the resecession than any other component IMO
            What can we expect to see- if they are working or failing
            What is plan B if they fail
            What are the positives and negatives from the changes.
            These cannot be thrown at us with a few weeks and all the other distractions around an election and RWC. Hiding behind this “keeping our powder dry” is crap. I would hate for another eroccurance of Labs last dramatic chnage in 84, and we were ambushed then. I do admit much of this was required… but not all. e.g. Works and a few other SOE being sold and to finance a few US Cup challanges 😉

            • mcflock 5.3.1.2.1.1

              “Lab are looking at completely changing the financial basis of this country”

              Yeah, I’ll believe that when I see it.

              Same old same old.

    • Marty G 5.4

      thanks for the comment Rob. Any projection needs to be taken with a grain of salt, the purpose is merely to show that things will likely be much closer than they appear if one simply says ‘well Labour has been in the 29-34 range most of the year and National has been 50-55’. I’m illustrating that there is a trend and, should it continue, which will require good work from the Labour leadership, then the gap will be close.

      I note the projection you came up with and mine only differ by the voting decisions of just over 1% of the population.

      If you look at why Hooton is so worried its because he has worked out that National has to discount even the decreased support it will have going into the campaign by the votes it is likely to lose over policy issues like privatisation, making it unlikely that the Right+United Future will be able to govern alone and, so, will have to turn to someone like the Maori Party or NZF for majorities, effectively kneecapping most of the rightwing’s agenda.

  6. Irascible 6

    The Botany by election date creates a limitation on Key calling a General Election doesn’t it? No by election within 6 months of a General Election unless agreed on by 75% of House.
    There was no vote on the announcement so Key limited to calling election in period from September to November.
    Even if he is a gambler he has surely limited his chances at the table with the Botany call.

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      No, it’s the other way around.

      They are allowed to have the by-election, and the full election the very next week or day after – nothing in the rules prevents that.

      What they need permission for, it to *cancel* the by-election because the full election is sometime within the next 6 months.

      All the by-election date tells us is that National is thinking, at the moment, that they probably won’t have an election within the next 1 or 2 months after that (or they look like they’re wasting public money on a by-election), but it’s far from a guarantee of even that. And things can always change very fast in politics.

      Now, if in the future National decide “hey, we’re going to have the election in June, why don’t we just cancel the by-election in March” they’d have to get 75% vote in parliament to agree to it. A ‘no’ vote could easily work for or against National depending on the circumstances around it.
      Pro National: Labour end up looking like they want to waste the public’s money on a pointless by-election.
      Con National: Labour vote ‘no’ as a protest to National’s power-hungry early-election.

      Most likely a no vote would work in National’s favour, against Labour.

  7. dave 7

    Some of this left/right thinking is as futile as first past the post thinking, particularly when United Future and the Maori Party have a larger “centre” than Act and Progressives and can swing either way. Any analysis on this post will not get you far in terms of what will happen on 26 November 2011.

  8. ianmac from Prague 8

    Lets all be optimistic. 🙂 There is a trend slight but cheerful. Honeymoons do pale usually after about a year, 2 if you are lucky. Irritating habits do take the glow off fancy cosmetics. And Governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning and so on. Good cheer!

    • rich 8.1

      Yeah, but it probably won’t happen, and Labour will be choosing a new leader around this time next year.

      They should really take a leaf out of the Aussies book and roll Goff real soon now. The only problem is their utter lack of a less lacklustre alternative, excluding first term MPs and senior UN officials. But maybe they should cast caution to the wind and adopt one of those.

      • MrSmith 8.1.1

        I like Goff well maybe not that much, “nice guy’s come last people ” so he has to go!

      • Colonial Viper 8.1.2

        They should really take a leaf out of the Aussies book and roll Goff real soon now.

        Did you even see what happened in Oz? Gillard rolled Rudd, and then her own stock promptly tanked.

        Yeah great example to follow.

  9. thomas forrow 9

    I think the National Party will be very pleased if Goff stays on to the election …. says it all really

  10. Zeroque 10

    I think you are right TF. It feels a little like how pleased Labour must have been when hearing that the Nats were going to stick with Brash for their leader a few years ago. But on a more positive note I agree with Marty G, Labour will need to come up with something appealing to gain back points. They are unlikely to be able to rely upon sexy leadership whoever that might be come the election. And I think the bit about the appeal coming from a radical economic policy that differs from the Nats would be great. But is this likely to happen? Wasnt it in the recent Aussie election that policy didnt feature? If that plays out here I think that will go against Labour.

  11. Gina 11

    The Polls may very well be complete crap. Yes they appeared to be fairly close to the money after the last election but there was another reason for that.

    Historiclly when there is a low election turnout we get a National party victory. No matter what the polls say the low turnout scenario allways gives the election to National.

    So why are the polls such a load of crap?

    1. 70% of those polled refuse to take part.

    2. Households without a landline are not polled. In the US studies reveal that adding cellphone only households to the mix changes the outcome in favour of the left by up to 7 points in states with the highest rate of cellphone only households. There is a direct correlation i.e. the higher the number of cellphone only households in a particular state the greater the polls favour the right when those cell only households are not polled.

    In New Zealand there are more households that do not have a landline than in the US so its possible there is an even greater difference.

    It looks to me like left wing voters didn’t vote at the last election. ? Was this due to disalusionment with Labour or becuase left voters believed the polls so didn’t vote? Maybe it was a bit of both.
    We really need to check out the 23% plus cellphone only households in NZ to know how big an influence this is in NZ as it could really make quite a difference. Seeing that differnce might make left wing voters realise the polls are not accurate and help inspire left voters to get out to the polls.

    If this US scenario holds true for NZ then as more households switch to cellphone only we will see the polls favouring the right wing continuing. With growing numbers of unemployed here the numbers of households without a landline will be growing thus distorting the polls further.

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  • A BIG win for the Arctic!
    Amazing news! Today an entire industry including major global brands McDonald’sTescoYoung’s Seafood and Iglo agreed to push back against destruction of our pristine Arctic waters.Together with the Norwegian Fishing Vessel Owners Association, Fiskebåt, which represents the entire Norwegian oceangoing fishing fleet, Russian… ...
    2 days ago
  • Inner East cycle consultation
    Auckland Transport recently consulted on cycle networks for the inner western suburbs of the isthmus. Now they’re doing the same thing but for the inner eastern suburbs. Aucklanders have an opportunity to shape the cycle network in the inner-east… ...
    2 days ago
  • Minister undermines State Sector Act
    25 May 2016 The education minister is undermining the principles of integrity and honesty in teacher appointments by interfering with a legal decision designed to avoid cronyism.Today Hekia Parata introduced a supplementary order paper (SOP) to the Education Legislation Bill attempting… ...
    2 days ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    frogblogBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    frogblogBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Paula Bennett’s housing deja vu
    After a week of bad media coverage about homelessness in Auckland, Social Housing Minister Paula Bennett was today forced to act, announcing that she would pay homeless Aucklanders $5,000 to move to the regions (where they'd conveniently be out of… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Mojo Mathers: A better deal for animals in Budget 2016
    Currently we are failing animals in NZ. On the face of it farmed and domestic animals in this country have strong legal protection from abuse, cruelty and neglect. In reality it seems that only the very worst, most extreme cases… ...
    frogblogBy Mojo Mathers
    2 days ago
  • Fluoridation: One small step sideways?
    Fluoridation. Let’s not ignore the elephant in the room – the need to separate scientific review from community consultation. Most health officials and science-minded people welcomed the recent announcement of the government’s plan to transfer decisions on water fluoridation from local… ...
    2 days ago
  • Finding a sense of porpoise
    Being a porpoise looks rubbish.Dolphins look like they have fun. They even look like they seek out fun. Okay, the fixed grins make them seem perpetually happy but let’s be honest - when was the last time you saw a… ...
    2 days ago
  • Member’s Day
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Metiria Turei: What we need from Budget 2016
    Every family deserves a warm decent home.  Everyone believes that. This housing crisis is just the latest consequence of a Government who puts the interests of the few wealthy people above the needs of NZ families.  Families are doing it… ...
    frogblogBy Metiria Turei
    2 days ago
  • Forcing transparency on Ministerial transport
    One of the perks of being a government Minister is the Ministerial limo - a chauffeur-driven car you can take anywhere. These vehicles are publicly funded and used for public business, so we should be able to see who uses… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Wicklow 2 win unconditional bail
    From éirígí: Great result today as éirígí’s Sean Doyle and Citizens Against Privatisation stalwart Eamonn McGrath were released from Cloverhill prison on unconditional bail. The unexpected outcome came virtue of a “technicality” in committal warrants as papers that were due… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • We shouldn’t just forgive, but pay back odious debt
    Over 9,000 people have signed Action Station's petition calling on the government to forgive odious emergency housing debt. The government's response? Nope:Wiping the debt of people who have been staying in motels for emergency accommodation would not be fair to… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Opening up NLTF to all modes
    The Green Party released a new freight policy yesterday. They’re looking at ways to invest to increase safety and reduce carbon emissions: The Safer, Cleaner Freight policy sets a target for moving half of freight on rail… ...
    2 days ago
  • The American Black Movement in the Sixties: Victories and Lost Opportunities
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    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: Three Dreams
    I have three dreams. One is characteristic, one is recurring and one is singular.The characteristic one is simple in concept: it's me and my friends going places and doing things. In the last one I can recall, there was a… ...
    2 days ago
  • Did you know this about tigers?
    Next in our series, we turn to the king (and queen) of the jungle - the tiger. Here are 10 incredible tiger facts from forests campaigner Richard George:10. Tigers have better short-term memories than humansTigers’ have one of the best… ...
    2 days ago
  • How well do you know the Polar Bear?
    Since the very beginning of Greenpeace, our movement has been fighting to protect some of the world’s most vulnerable animals. And over the years, we’ve learnt some truly incredible things about the magnificent creatures we share this planet with. So… ...
    2 days ago
  • How well do you know the orangutan?
    Next in the series, forests campaigner Richard George shares his 10 favourite facts about one of of our closest living relatives - the orangutan:10. Orangutans are ticklishThere are two kinds of ticklish. There’s the gentle kind that feels itchy and… ...
    2 days ago
  • Income inequality is one of the defining issues of our time
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    Closing the GapBy Ben Smith
    2 days ago
  • Dying For Latvia?
    Preparing For War: Nato forces in the former Soviet republic of Latvia as part of the 2014 "Silver Arrow" military exercises in the Baltic states. Such naked demonstrations of Nato's extended reach - right up to the borders of the… ...
    2 days ago
  • How much do you really know about turtles?
    I’m Willie and I’m an oceans campaigner here at Greenpeace.Over the years I’ve had the privilege of watching turtles from the bow of Greenpeace ships, and many of my colleagues have encountered these peaceful ocean wanderers far out at sea… ...
    2 days ago
  • How much do you know about whales?
    I’m Willie and I’m an oceans campaigner here at Greenpeace.Over the years I’ve had the privilege of seeing lots of whales, both from the deck of Greenpeace ships, and also on whale-watching trips. I’ve been lucky enough to see massive… ...
    2 days ago
  • Are noisy oceans to blame for beached whales?
    Noise is the most invisible of all the man-made threats to the ocean, but to whales who ‘see’ by hearing, they simply cannot escape it.Water is an excellent medium for relaying sound, enabling some species of whale to communicate across… ...
    2 days ago
  • Sylvia Park growth plans
    Sylvia Park is already Auckland’s largest shopping centre, but it’s likely to get even bigger in the next few years. Kiwi Property, who own the centre, have plans to expand the retail offering, as well as adding office buildings. In… ...
    Transport BlogBy John Polkinghorne
    2 days ago
  • PrintNZ Forum Speakers Enlighten Delegates
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    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    2 days ago
  • Nick Smith: There is NO crisis
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    My ThinksBy boonman
    2 days ago
  • Tracking the 2°C Limit – April 2016
    April is starting to come down off the shockingly high anomalies of the first couple of months of this year. GISS is clocking in a still strong warm anomaly of 1.11°C. This is by far the hottest April in the… ...
    3 days ago
  • Fanshawe St Bus Stop improvements
    Occasionally it is small projects that can have a lot of impact on people’s PT experience. With the ever growing number of people working near Victoria Park, an upgrade to the bus stops on Fanshawe St along with improvements to the… ...
    3 days ago
  • Fanshawe St Bus Stop improvements
    Occasionally it is small projects that can have a lot of impact on people’s PT experience. With the ever growing number of people working near Victoria Park, an upgrade to the bus stops on Fanshawe St along with improvements to the… ...
    3 days ago
  • An abuse of the Speaker’s chair
    Last week NewsHub revealed leaked MPI reports which showed that MPI had been turning a blind eye to widespread criminal behaviour in the fishing industry. Today was the first day of Parliament since those revelations, and given their seriousness, it… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • An abuse of the Speaker’s chair
    Last week NewsHub revealed leaked MPI reports which showed that MPI had been turning a blind eye to widespread criminal behaviour in the fishing industry. Today was the first day of Parliament since those revelations, and given their seriousness, it… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Punakaiki Fund invests in Populate
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    Lance WiggsBy Lance Wiggs
    3 days ago

  • How the budget fails new New Zealanders
    Greens co-leader James Shaw was absolutely correct to say the 2016 budget is just papering over the cracks. There’s nothing in this budget to increase wages, address inequal pay for carers or deal with the shocking pay rates and employment… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    12 hours ago
  • Parents will pay more as school budgets frozen
    Parents will pay more for their kids’ education as a result of this year’s Budget after the Government froze operational funding for schools, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “This means schools are effectively going backwards. They will need to… ...
    14 hours ago
  • Sticking Plaster Budget fails the test
    Bill English’s penultimate Budget fails to tackle the structural challenges facing the economy – a housing crisis, rising unemployment, underfunded health and creaking infrastructure, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “This Budget applies a sticking plaster to a compound fracture.… ...
    15 hours ago
  • John Key fails middle New Zealand with no fix for housing crisis, more underfunding of health
    Middle New Zealand has again missed out in this year’s Budget with not a single fix for the housing crisis, and health and education woefully underfunded again, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “This Budget is just a patchwork… ...
    15 hours ago
  • Labour Bill would back Kiwi jobs
    The Government’s $40 billion of buying power would go towards backing Kiwi businesses and jobs under a Labour Member’s Bill which will be debated by Parliament, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “My Bill – which was pulled from… ...
    17 hours ago
  • Julie Anne Genter: My Budget 2016 wish is fairness
    When my parents first visited me in Auckland ten years ago, they remarked on how there were no homeless people on the streets. Coming from Los Angeles, they were used to seeing the impacts of horrendous inequality and a lack… ...
    GreensBy Julie Anne Genter
    18 hours ago
  • Steffan Browning: Pesticide reduction and Organic Growth Strategy in Budget 2016
    Pesticide reduction The Budget is an opportunity for the Government to launch a pesticide reduction strategy that multiplies the Environmental Protection Authority’s (EPA) and the Ministry for Primary Industries’ capacity to reassess pesticides and other toxins.  The Agricultural Compounds and… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning
    19 hours ago
  • Steffan Browning: Pesticide reduction and Organic Growth Strategy in Budget 2016
    Pesticide reduction The Budget is an opportunity for the Government to launch a pesticide reduction strategy that multiplies the Environmental Protection Authority’s (EPA) and the Ministry for Primary Industries’ capacity to reassess pesticides and other toxins.  The Agricultural Compounds and… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning
    19 hours ago
  • Minister won’t fess up on wrong figures
    The Minister of Health was caught out telling porkies in Parliament today when he was asked about the number of people getting access to mental health and addiction services, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King. ...
    2 days ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Scrambled announcement policy on the hoof
    Paula Bennett’s scrambled desperate announcement that she will pay homeless people to move to the regions is just the latest evidence of the disarray this Government’s housing policy is in, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “This is policy… ...
    2 days ago
  • Police Minister admits resolution rates fall short of expectation
    Police Minister Judith Collins has admitted in Parliament current burglary resolution rates are not meeting the expectations of our communities, says Labour’s Police spokesman Stuart Nash “Out of 284 police stations in New Zealand in 2015, 24 stations recorded zero… ...
    2 days ago
  • Mojo Mathers: A better deal for animals in Budget 2016
    Currently we are failing animals in NZ. On the face of it farmed and domestic animals in this country have strong legal protection from abuse, cruelty and neglect. In reality it seems that only the very worst, most extreme cases… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers
    2 days ago
  • Metiria Turei: What we need from Budget 2016
    Every family deserves a warm decent home.  Everyone believes that. This housing crisis is just the latest consequence of a Government who puts the interests of the few wealthy people above the needs of NZ families.  Families are doing it… ...
    GreensBy Metiria Turei
    2 days ago
  • Dairy exports fall of 11%: Budget action on diversification needed
    Dairy exports have fallen 11 per cent compared to this time last year, a fall of almost $1.5b, showing the Government must take clear action on diversifying the economy in tomorrow’s Budget, says Labour’s Trade and Export Growth spokesperson David… ...
    2 days ago
  • Investors driving families out of homes in South and West Auckland
    Investors cashing in on skyrocketing Auckland house prices are driving families out of homes in South and West Auckland and causing homeownership rates in some of our poorest suburbs to plummet, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New analysis shows… ...
    2 days ago
  • Budget must deliver on paid parental leave
    Budget 2016 must deliver 26 weeks paid parental leave by April 2018 – anything less will be short-changing families, says Labour MP Sue Moroney. “My Bill which is before Parliament this afternoon has majority support and does just that. I… ...
    2 days ago
  • Key’s “brain fart” on tax cuts news to English
    John Key didn’t tell his own Finance Minister he was about to go on radio and announce he wanted $3b of tax cuts, just days after Bill English ruled them out, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “In Parliament today… ...
    3 days ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    3 days ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    3 days ago
  • Denise Roche: What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 Pt II
    Aotearoa’s new New Zealanders,  come to our country in vulnerable position: – often away from the culture, communities and families they know, sometimes in neighbourhoods without familiar faces and often encountering barriers to employment. With net migration at 50,000+ a… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    3 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    3 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    3 days ago
  • A great Budget would
    A great Budget would embrace the challenge of our polluted rivers and move the money away from justifying the status quo water rules into cleaning up waterways. A great Budget would take the Ministry for the Environment freshwater budget and… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    3 days ago
  • Budget building materials policy backfires
    On the eve of this year’s Budget official figures show Nick Smith’s Budget 2014 centrepiece to reduce the cost of building materials has backfired, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment officials have spent the… ...
    3 days ago
  • Smarter, Better, Cleaner, Stronger
    This Thursday Bill English will deliver his eighth Budget. Will it continue the trend of previous National budgets, making tertiary education less affordable, putting only token funds into innovation, and subsidising polluters? Budgets aren’t what they used to be. Once… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    3 days ago
  • Govt must come clean on tax cuts in Budget
    National is making a mockery of the Budget process by dangling the promise of tax cuts but failing to include them in the Budget, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “National’s tax cut promises have turned into a farce. One… ...
    4 days ago
  • Grant Robertson Pre-Budget Speech
    Today I want to talk about success. As we know success can come in many different forms, from the fact you all made it here at such an early hour on a Monday, for which I am very grateful, to… ...
    4 days ago
  • Budget must deliver for middle New Zealand
    The Government must ensure next week’s Budget stops the squeeze on middle New Zealand and delivers shared prosperity for all New Zealanders, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. The call follows new research commissioned by Labour that shows working… ...
    5 days ago
  • Our housing emergency – why we have to act
    Marama and Metiria at Homes Not Cars launch On Thursday, Metiria Turei announced the Green Party’s plan to start addressing the emergency housing crisis facing our country. Too many people are without homes right now – homeless. It is the… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    6 days ago
  • Will funding boost for sexual violence services go to the right places?
    This week the Government announced $46million for sexual violence services. This announcement was a result of decades of work by advocates and everyone who submitted to the Select Committee inquiry into funding for sexual violence services that I initiated with… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    7 days ago
  • Will funding boost for sexual violence services go to the right places?
    This week the Government announced $46million for sexual violence services. This announcement was a result of decades of work by advocates and everyone who submitted to the Select Committee inquiry into funding for sexual violence services that I initiated with… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    7 days ago
  • Denise Roche – What I’m looking for in this year’s Budget
    Two of the things I’ll be looking for in the Budget next week are more funding for refugees and for our arts and culture sector. More funding for refugees I’m a strong supporter of the #DoubleTheQuota campaign and its goals… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    7 days ago
  • Denise Roche – What I’m looking for in this year’s Budget
    Two of the things I’ll be looking for in the Budget next week are more funding for refugees and for our arts and culture sector. More funding for refugees I’m a strong supporter of the #DoubleTheQuota campaign and its goals… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    7 days ago
  • Car rego victims must get a refund
    Motorists who have been overcharged for their car registration should get a refund, says Labour’s Transport spokesperson Sue Moroney.  “Minister Nikki Kaye’s ‘faulty risk’ rating scheme has blown up in her face with over 170 different models of car having… ...
    7 days ago
  • Council statement shows they just don’t get it
    The Auckland Council’s statement today shows they don’t understand the problems created by the urban growth boundary, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  “I have been the first to defend the Auckland City Council when Bill English has been blaming… ...
    7 days ago
  • Inspecting electronic devices a potential privacy threat
    Labour is expressing concern for New Zealanders’ privacy rights as the Government signals Customs will have the power to inspect electronic devices coming across the border, says Labour’s Customs Spokesperson Rino Tirikatene. “We agree that customs officers should have the… ...
    7 days ago
  • The Price of Water
    This week I hosted a public meeting at EIT in Hawkes Bay to discuss how we might put a price on the commercial use of water, so that water may be valued and treated more sustainably. I invited a… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    7 days ago
  • Caption It NZ!
    Today I received a petition from the NZ Captioning Working Group urging the government to legislate for accessibility via closed captioning for deaf and hard of hearing New Zealanders. It was timely because today is the fifth Global Accessibility Awareness… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers
    1 week ago
  • Older Kiwis to miss out on electives
    The Government is not doing enough elective surgery to keep up with New Zealand’s ageing population, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “It’s damning that the targeted national intervention rate for cataract and knee and hip surgery is the same… ...
    1 week ago
  • Most principals say their college is underfunded
    The Government must substantially increase funding for secondary schools in next week’s Budget after a new survey found 86 per cent of principals consider their college under-resourced, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Just 14 per cent of secondary principals… ...
    1 week ago
  • Bill English and Nick Smith on different pages
    The Government’s support for Labour’s policy to remove the Auckland urban growth boundary is good news, but National needs to clarify its position, Labour’s Housing and Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Acting Prime Minister has acknowledged our position… ...
    1 week ago
  • Bill English and Nick Smith on different pages
    The Government’s support for Labour’s policy to remove the Auckland urban growth boundary is good news, but National needs to clarify its position, Labour’s Housing and Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Acting Prime Minister has acknowledged our position… ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour calls for independent inquiry into illegal fish dumping
    The Labour Party is reiterating its call for an independent inquiry into New Zealand’s fishing industry after two reports revealed the Ministry for Primary Industries turned a blind eye to widespread fish dumping in New Zealand waters, says Labour’s Fisheries… ...
    1 week ago
  • Mt Karangahake and Newcrest Mining
    On Wednesday and Sunday of last week the local residents of the Karangahake mountain in the Karangahake gorge of Hauraki/Coromandel peacefully protested against a gold mining drill rig on private land adjacent to the DOC land. The drilling rig was… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Robbing Aucklanders to pay Rio Tinto
    New Zealand’s national electricity grid stretches the length of the country and contains some 11,803 kilometres of high-voltage lines and 178 substations. It wouldn’t make sense for competing power companies to duplicate and build their own expensive electricity transmission system… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    1 week ago
  • Government should abolish Auckland urban growth boundary
    The Government should rule out any possibility of an urban growth boundary in Auckland Council’s Unitary Plan if it is serious about fixing the housing crisis, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Over 25 years the urban growth boundary hasn’t… ...
    1 week ago
  • Kiwis don’t want iPads for Land deals
     It is outrageous that schools are relying on money and iPads from foreign land investors to meet the learning needs of their students, says Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins.  “Several OIO land applications by offshore investors have claimed that without… ...
    1 week ago
  • Homelessness – National has failed all of us
    A young South Auckland Māori woman recently tried to get hold of me around midnight. I missed her call. The woman wanted me to know the sharp reality facing too many families looking for a stable place to live. Things… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    1 week ago

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