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Latest Roy Morgan… a bit shit

Written By: - Date published: 9:09 pm, February 28th, 2013 - 146 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

I guess the title says it all.

The latest Roy Morgan has National at 47.5% (up 3.5%), Labour 30.5% (down 4%), Greens 12.5%, and NZ First at 3%.

I’m not really in the mood to piss around with analysis tonight. You’ve heard me moan about the state of Labour enough lately.

But it’s not the greatest feeling in world watching National coasting to a third term.

Doesn’t seem to up yet on the Roy Morgan website. Will add the graph below when it’s there.

lprent: added charts.

146 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan… a bit shit”

  1. hush minx 1

    On top of the recent TV 3 poll I think I’d wouldn’t be counting my chickens as a green or labor wanna- be minister. And much as I’d like the greens to pick up the slack from labour it really is labour’s responsibility to lift the game. Question is, how long can New Zealander’s afford to wait? Last day of summer. Election is not that far off any more…

  2. Bill 2

    Analysis? Occam’s fucking Razor. Shearer (naive puppet of the ABC pricks) won. Meaning that Labour lost. Meaning that I lose. You lose. ‘Everyone’ loses. Pretty simple really.

  3. Socialist Paddy 3

    I think that we should consult with comrade Trevor Mallard and ask him what he thinks we should do.

    After all he was in charge of the campaign last time which resulted in such a superb result.

    And his tweets over the past couple of days show that he is totally in control of the social media stuff.

    And he has driven the strategy of fecking over a significant minority of caucus just so he and a couple of others can preserve their privilege.

    Let’s see what Trevor suggests.

    And then do the opposite.

    While demanding and engineering his resignation.

  4. Belladonna 4

    When is Shearer going to do the right thing and stand down? It is so depressing to think the outcome of over 4 million lives and this country is being held to ransome by a small number of large egos.

    • fenderviper 4.1

      I doubt Shearer is the stand down type, hell he wasn’t even honest enough with himself to dismiss the idea of being leader. If he lived in the real world he’d never have considered himself ready for the job. The ABC fools have no doubt convinced him he will be the next PM and he’s lapping up their bs to the degree that he’s probably already considering the new colour scheme he wants for the PM’s residence.

    • Grassroots 4.2

      I know I asked the same question before 2012 election, however people would like to give our leader a fair go – look what we have got now!

  5. Another rogue poll.

    • alex 5.1

      Rather, just another poll full stop. Bouncing around within the margin of error is pretty meaningless, but it is hard to see a positive trend.

  6. bad12 6

    Lolz that might set a few rectal cavities in the Labour Caucus room all a quiver, probably register on the rickety scale in the basement of the Hive as at least a magnitude 1,

    Such bombshells from Roy will have the whole place rolling off on it’s ball-bearings down onto Lambton Quay…

  7. Sanctuary 7

    Mallrd says “…My decision to seek Hutt South nomination just reinforced…”

    The question is, can the membership ensure his nomination is rejected? What of the Labour party membership in Hutt South? Get rid of Mallard. it is within your power to do so.

    • bad12 7.1

      Lolz course they aint going to purge Mallard, the Blackadder of the NZ Labour Party is going to sit there until He is made Speaker or cancer eats his bowels out…

      • fenderviper 7.1.1

        Yep Mallard just wants the chance to prove he knows all the little intricacies and protocols of the house. Like a pedantic train conductor checking everyone has a ticket to ride despite the fact the train is going over a cliff.

    • AmaKiwi 7.2

      Bluff and bluster but short on brains.

      If Cunliffe becomes party leader before or after the 2014 election, Ducky will be lucky to be appointed special envoy to North Korea.

      See comment #11 below.

  8. McFlock 8

    I blame TV remotes and 90s liberal parents.

    The slightest setback is a tragedy, and the lack of attention span means an obsession with the latest datapoint rather than overall trends.

    National are not “coasting to a third term”. The tide is slowly ebbing, but this is just another wave.

    • lprent 8.1

      GCR. Doesn’t look like a blip to me. The problem is that the GCR is a pretty good forward indicator of subsequent poll trends…

      • McFlock 8.1.1

        “GCR”?
        Google fails me with a flood of acronyms. What’s GCR?

        • Beryl Streep 8.1.1.1

          GCR is the Galactic Cosmic Ray, the high-energy particles that flow into our solar system from far away in the galaxy. It’s the reason Labour aren’t doing to well in the polls, apparently.

        • Blue 8.1.1.2

          Google won’t help you this time. The answer’s in the post. Government Confidence Rating.

          • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.2.1

            Awwwww you spoilsport

            • McFlock 8.1.1.2.1.1

              ha

              Fair enough.
              I’ve never really paid much attention to it (obviously). Just the intended votes.
              Might have a closer look in future – although it’s still lower than when nact scraped in last time.

              • lprent

                Rugby world cup – wonderful positioning it so close to an election. Look at where the GCR was in april/may 2011 prior to cup fever.

        • lprent 8.1.1.3

          Sorry. Government Confidence Rating (GCR). The second graph above..

          Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

          The Morgan poll picks it up off the same group at the same time. It has a habit of shifting quite a lot earlier than the actual polls do. Effectively when those polled start to feel disquiet/confidence. At this point it has been moving in the governments direction since November – far too long to be a blip.

    • bad12 8.2

      i blame my comments here on the Standard that Roy likes to fiddle the %’s using the margin of error to mark Party’s up or down at Roy’s whim,

      Roy probably read them and thought he would learn em a valuable lesson…

    • Colonial Viper 8.3

      90’s liberal parenting is the problem? Sure…if everyone in this landline poll is aged between 18-21 you may have a point McFlock.

      National are not “coasting to a third term”. The tide is slowly ebbing, but this is just another wave.

      Shit dude, according to your number crunching, Labour is on track to a 38% return on E-day, so you are right, its not National coasting to a 3rd term. It is Labour coasting to victory in 2014.

      • McFlock 8.3.1

        nope. My crystal ball is somewhat clouded over. But that means I see no reason to tear at my clothes in grief.

        • Colonial Viper 8.3.1.1

          But that means I see no reason to tear at my clothes in grief.

          a lot of people here have expertise in going over polling numbers and trends in great detail. You’re making a mistake if you think that you can write off the dismay expressed here as some kind of overly emotional reaction.

          Good luck to Labour. I hope they start consistently polling between 35% and 38% by the second half of the year.

          • McFlock 8.3.1.1.1

            “dismay” is generally “overly emotional”, and frequently gets in the way of doing something about it.

            • Colonial Viper 8.3.1.1.1.1

              Sure, if you’re a Vulcan, T-800 or Borg drone, I can understand that having feelings like “dismay” might indeed be disabling.

              • McFlock

                lol
                But they don’t feel emotion at all!

                I always figured “dismay” is to grief as “panic” is to fear.

                • emergency mike

                  I think you are confusing “dismay” with “despair”.

                  • McFlock

                    Well, I always figured that “despair” was the bit after panic and dismay, where one still can’t see a way out so sits in a corner and waits for the inevitable – not acceptance, just a really depressing place to be.

                    As opposed to “desperation”, where one figures one’s probably fucked but tries the million-to-one option simply because it’s rationally the best thing to try at the time.

                    • emergency mike

                      http://oxforddictionaries.com

                      Dismay: concern and distress caused by something unexpected

                      Despair: the complete loss or absence of hope

                      Note that the definition of ‘dismay’ implies no particular degree of concern and distress. In usage the degree of such is entirely context related. (“He was dismayed to find his toothbrush on the floor.”)

                      Thus, to me, ‘generally “overly emotional”, and frequently gets in the way of doing something about it’ applies to despair rather than dismay.

                    • McFlock

                      well, would it be possible to view something with “mild dismay”? That would seem to me to be a bit of a contradiction.

                      All very interesting, but I reckon that folk here who are predicting a National victory on the basis of current polling are more despairing than dismayed, in that case.

                    • emergency mike

                      “well, would it be possible to view something with “mild dismay”? That would seem to me to be a bit of a contradiction.”

                      Given the oxford dictionary’s definition one can be dismayed to the same range of degrees as one can be ‘concerned and distressed’. There’s quite a bit of creative licence available there. But I’ll admit that ‘mildly distressed’ is a bit clunky.

                      However, I googled “mild dismay” and “mildly dismayed” (in quotation marks) and found them to be happily in common usage. And as any linguist will tell you, that’s all that matters.

                    • McFlock

                      Yeah, I never followed that perspective too closely. I think it describes what is, rather than what should be. As soon as we stop striving for the “what should be”, no matter with what effect, then the “what is” goes even farther from “what should be”.

  9. Richard Down South 9

    Ive said it many times… it depends who they’re asking… if you asked a 1000 people how they will vote, and 900 of them are true and true national supporters who wouldn’t vote anything else even if Key set the NZ flag on fire, then you’ll end up with a skewed poll

  10. AsleepWhileWalking 10

    The Greens are pretty steady with their band of loyal supporters : )

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      That’s an interesting point. With far fewer people answering “Aye” to the Greens during polling, you would imagine that their relatively low numbers and low response rate would lead to results which bounce around a lot more every single polling cycle. What Richard Down South suggests would happen simply by picking a different patch of voters.

      But it doesn’t tend to.

  11. AmaKiwi 11

    Helen Clark’s advice to Goff, King, and Mallard: “Get a life.”

    Helen replying to Reddit Ask Me Anything: “While you can ask me anything – don’t expect me to dive back into Kiwi political debates! Been there, done that!” she said.

    Charles Chauvel was more blunt: “In order to avoid history repeating it’s time for an honest, open, and overdue assessment of the 2011 election campaign produced Labour’s worst ever electoral result.
    Those responsible for it should make dignified exits.”

  12. Craig Glen viper 12

    I have the answer people don’t panic. Now lets all hold hands and make a wish that David Shearer is a real Labour Leader who actually gives a shit about sickness beneficiaries and when he speaks he’s not just a bit shit.

    • AmaKiwi 12.1

      It’s his political intelligence and skills that worry me. It’s a bruising, demanding profession. Neither he nor Grant Robertson have got it. (Grant for different reasons.)

      • xtasy 12.1.1

        The charisma of a smelly, damp, wiping cloth, that is the charisma of David Shearer, I am afraid. Sorry dear Labourites, but I cannot help it, every new poll out just proves my point, yet again.

        Have a rethink about leadership, perhaps.

    • Hami Shearlie 12.2

      If only wishing could make it so CGV! Unfortunately I think NZ is all out of fairy dust at the moment!

  13. Draco T Bastard 13

    Every time I’ve seen the Roy Morgan swing that much in a month it’s been a rogue.

  14. Addison 14

    This is a bloody long honeymoon!

  15. bad12 15

    Roy is of course totally on the money with this poll, i mean the Maori party has jumped a full 2% in the poll in a month,

    This is because the Maori Party have umm ummm aah, because oooh oooh, coz Roy on a whim decided that Slippery’s National Party had to look like the winner perhaps…

  16. Addison 16

    Just take a look back at the three yyears leading up to the last election. At this time, mid term, Labour were closing. In the last 18 months they started to fall away and in the last 6 months when campaigning began under mallards governance their support fell away fast. Were it not for a rise in the green and NZ first vote in those last 6 months National would have governed alone. History is repeating itself and Nero is fiddling while Rome burns.

    • Colonial Viper 16.1

      Great Tory import from UK

      • Addison 16.1.1

        Ever tried commenting on people’s comments rather than the people it makes for a better debate. Oh I forgot your Clark trained!

        • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.1

          lol tell us again how the salaries in NZ are so great, for political and economic refugees from the UK like yourself

          Then explain why you’d like to see NZ become just like the Tory loving Austerity pushing Bank indebted wreck like your home country.

  17. xtasy 17

    NOT surprised at all – this poll. And listening to Jacinda Ardern ask silly questions to Bennett during Question Time yesterday, well, those many undecided voters, many likely dependent somehow on welfare payments, those fit to work, and those unable to work, will have NO reason to consider Labour as a sympathetic party to vote for.

    Here she went on, trying to challenge Bennett on total beneficiary numbers having gone up rather than down, and thinking she could blame this on “benefit reforms” having failed. Future Focus comes to mind.

    Hey, Ardern, get a life, I fed you highly interesting and exposing info over months, same as a few others, and YOU are NOT using it! You rather focus on the same side shows as this nasty government.

    Future Focus has been and is NASTY, it is more than draconian, and what will follow soon will be criminal, yes in part the new Social Security (Benefit Categories and Work Focus) Amendment Bill even is ILLEGAL. So you go on about benefit numbers, hinting the government should have made more effort to off-load more off the benefits in times of economic hardship, that does not convince me and others of you being any better than that nasty Paula Bennett.

    You may rate yourself as one of the “sexiest” politicians in NZ, but to me you are NOT “sexy” when it comes to fairness, objectivity, honesty and social justice. Since you strangely survived the re-shuffle, I wonder what ever justified you to do so. It shows that you are in with the right of centre Shearer troopers, and that is NOT giving any sick, disabled, unemployed and dependent sole parent ANY consolation having you as social security spokesperson.

    I am sorry, I look forward to your replacement, same as that of your unconvincing “leader”.

  18. Don’t discount the New Zealand diaspora in Australia and elsewhere, nearly 20% of New Zealanders live overseas. Roy Morgan ignores 500,000 or so that live overseas and can vote in NZ elections.

    • kiwicommie 18.1

      The election is also two years away, the only polls that count are those the months or weeks before election day.

      • hush minx 18.1.1

        Um correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t it 2014 the next election?

        • Colonial Viper 18.1.1.1

          A normally timed election would happen sometime during November 2014.

          So right on 18 months away.

  19. mac1 19

    If Shearer is to blame, or Mallard, or Goff, King or Robertson etc as commenters claim here on the Standard, that Labour has dropped 4%, are they to blame for the same percentage decrease in the Greens poll result and the larger percentage decrease in NZ First?

    At the same time as the National poll does up, and opposition parties go down, yet the government confidence rating dips.

    Explanations, anyone?

    • Colonial Viper 19.1

      The Labour leadership and strategy team is to blame for the Roy Morgan sitting in exactly the same place as 3 years ago, when Key was starting his first term honeymoon.

      • hush minx 19.1.1

        And to me the fact that labour is consistently polling less than it did at the 2008 election after three terms in government is a significant indictment of the then leaders, Phil and Annette, as well add those of today.

      • mac1 19.1.2

        So, CV, you’re saying that the decrease in Green and NZF polling is down to Labour as well. That, after all, was my question. Hush minx, you don’t answer my question. If we of the Left are concerned about where the polling support is, then should we not ask why Greens and NZF have also dipped as much as Labour. Can this be blamed on Shearer? If not, who then or what then?

        Alwyn actually got the question at 19.2 but blaming Labour because the Greens and NZF have also suffered by seeming to support Labour doesn’t satisfy me. If they do well, does Labour get the credit?

        The answer lies elsewhere, fellow commenters of the Left. I don’t know what it is, but Shearer et al. bashing is not it either, unless of course you’re in it for another party of the Left.

        • mac1 19.1.2.1

          Further to this, if I was a pissed off Labour supporter, would I go to National? Not pygmalion likely. I’d go to the Greens or maybe Mana or NZF. But they’re down too.

          • mac1 19.1.2.1.1

            Puddleglum below at #30 seems to share some thinking on this question.

            • hush minx 19.1.2.1.1.1

              Yes, it is complex. The greens suffer if the large party on the left fails because it undermines the whole credibility of the left, however unfair that is.

              For those who follow issues more closely, I can quite see a drift from labor to green. In fact that’s me and quite a few of my friends. But if you’re not really following politics, like most people, and if there isn’t cut through in such a way as means something to me then I’ll figure that is either broadly OK, or just won’t care. And tick the winning side.

              So yes, the left have to work together to be credible which is why I am so disappointed when labor attacks the greens like Shane did.

        • xtasy 19.1.2.2

          mac1: You have to bear in mind that the largest opposition party is by the public seen as “the opposition”. And since the other opposition parties have more or less been identified as prospective coalition partners in any alternative government, the negative impression that voters may have of Labour and particularly its leadership, does also rub off on the likely opposition parties, as voters will view them less likely to be relevant.

          Perhaps have a read of some of Chris Trotter’s last two posts, and you will see, how it works. Also Brian Edwards wrote an interesting post a day or so ago, clearly stating that the performance of the main opposition party and leader rub off on the rest in opposition.

          That is why this is happening.

          • mac1 19.1.2.2.1

            “Also Brian Edwards wrote an interesting post a day or so ago, clearly stating that the performance of the main opposition party and leader rub off on the rest in opposition.”

            I’ve just read all the Edward’s posts for 2013 on Brian Edwards Media, xtasy, and damned if I can find anything near what you say he wrote.

            I also read a Trotter article recently, but was not impressed. Too involved emotionally.

            I do however like Brian Edwards. I would much appreciate a direct reference to the interesting post you speak of.

            • xtasy 19.1.2.2.1.1

              Quote fr. Brian Edwards blog dated 25 Feb. 2013 (chapter 7 fr. original):
              “In an earlier post I argued that political polls tend to be self-fulfilling on the basis that people are reluctant to vote for a persistently low-polling party or leader. Our natural instinct is to back winners. The high-rating leader is also able to bask in the warm glow of his poll success while his low-rating opponent has to engage in an unconvincing dismissal of the poll result and an equally unconvincing defence of his and his party’s performance that presumably led to it.”

              And quote from chapter 10 I think:
              “And here’s the main point: Shearer’s future will be determined by the polls.”

              http://brianedwardsmedia.co.nz/2013/02/john-key-on-41-david-shearer-on-10-that-cant-be-right-can-it/#sthash.OSEDkXpx.dpuf

              While Brian Edwards does not directly mention the Greens suffering due to the negative and weak image that Shearer has, one can read between the line that Brian does consider Labour as the leading opposition party as relevant and crucial for prospective pollsters and voters to judge about their capabilities to form an alternative government. That also applies to Labour’s leader.

              Just consider his sensible comment like this: “Our natural instinct is to back winners.”

              On that line, thought and logic, would voters be inclined to “naturally” want to pick parties as potential government supporting or coalition members associated with “losers”?

              • Colonial Viper

                Yep. We back pollies like we back race horses. We put our money behind those we think will win.

              • mac1

                Two responses, xstasy. You have changed your ground from Edwards clearly stating that the performance of the labour party rubs off on the rest of the opposition to “one can read between the line.”

                My point is that a poor performance from a Party leader does not necessarily lead to lower polling from other opposition parties. In fact, polls have shown great increases percentage wise to the other parties as the Greens in particular picked up.

                Commenters here have stated that they will leave Labour’s ranks to vote for other opposition parties as they became disgruntled. That kind of thinking should lead to an increase in opposition parties’ polling.

                But this Morgan poll time it did not. All the opposition parties went down.

                My second response. We must discover the reason for that, even if it be a ‘rogue poll’. I suspect it is otherwise, but don’t know.

                In fact, I think it’s dangerous to blame Shearer for this poll results, otherwise than they might apply to Labour’s polling. That is lazy thinking, self-serving and/or unhelpful. We need the truth as much as we can define it, with clear thinking.

                If voters only went and voted by backing winners, there would never be a change of government. There would have been no pick up in support for Helen Clark. The Labour party has been here before, as in 1990. The National party was in a worse position in 2002 under English.

                Personally, I vote according to policy and principles, not by backing a winner. I enjoyed winning in 1972 hugely, and in 1984, ’87, ’99. ’02, ’05. The only winner that I back, if I were to back a winner, are the ordinary punters for whom it is so important to have the best horse win.

                I am not sure that voters who not so caught up as we are in day to day politics, actually see the opposition as an entity, but see the constituent parties involved instead. Near election time, or when the media pundits begin to seriously consider MMP coalition options, then voters might reflect on who is involved in possible coalitions. Even then, the thinking tended to be along the lines of being put off by minor coalition parties who since they are not big, obviously have a lot more to off put the average voter.

                I don’t believe that 91000 voters more than voted for National in the election, as Hooton described it on Natradio recently and if I remember the figure correctly of course, would have transferred over to National and therefore deserted all opposition parties because of Shearer.

                If Hooton and the Morgan poll is correct, then we of the Left have some truths to discover.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Commenters here have stated that they will leave Labour’s ranks to vote for other opposition parties as they became disgruntled. That kind of thinking should lead to an increase in opposition parties’ polling.

                  But this Morgan poll time it did not. All the opposition parties went down.

                  Bet you it was because the Left inclined non-vote/no opinion went up.

                  There are a lot of pissed of core Labour voters out there who will prefer to stay at home rather than vote for the loopy tree hugging Greens.

                  If that was the case, the only party who comes ahead % wise is National.

                  • mac1

                    CV, now that makes some sense to me, as did Puddleglum further down the page.

                    Are we actually able to quantify the left-inclined non-vote/no opinion? I know it was high last election when we could have a dash at quantifying that non-vote.

                    Also, have the pollsters changed their methodology in the way they treat a don’t know/don’t care response? Some commenter made an assertion that it was 80% of all polled but the number is not published by the pollster.

                    If the polls are not reflecting that core of pissed off labour voters as you say, then that is one of the truths that Labour has to address- how to revitalise the 2011 non-vote.

                    But your explanation, CV, does not explain why the Greens, NZ First and Mana also took a dive as opposed to National’s upturn.

                    Are NZers being conservative? Along the lines of “We know we are in tough times and therefore stick with the govt we know especially if, for Labour voters, the Labour party is not showing strongly for what ever reasons.”

                    Those reasons too are important.

                    Change will come if enough voters are desperate enough for change. Have we reached that tipping point yet? It is often said that voters vote Governments out, not governments in. Is this applying- not enough voters pissed off with Key’s government?

                    Puddleglum lower down refers to the various core areas where voters place importance where obviously all the opposition parties are nor scoring well enough.

                    Are the voters saying that voters don’t like the alternative enough?

                    Lastly, how much was that desire ‘to give the other side a turn’ a factor in 2008, then given continuance in 2011, still applying today?

                    • xtasy

                      mac1 : Thanks for your further comments above.

                      Blaming Shearer was not done light-heartedly and short-sightedly by me. He has been held up as going to change the polls upwards soon for a year now, but it has not happened. Hence in reality, he is becoming more of a liability as “leader” of less than mediocre capabilities in that role.

                      As for the home staying voters, this is what I have been looking at for a long time now. And there are many disgruntled former Labour voters, and there will in some cases also be disgruntled Green voters.

                      Mana has its own challenges, and the media have done all to condemn it to the margins as an “alternative Maori Party”, “Hone’s Party” or the “loony lefty activist supported party”.

                      I am afraid that despite of all good will of many in Mana, it will be a missed opportunity party. Hence for me the best idea and solution is to create a NEW Left Party, taking position where traditional Labour values were and should be again, and to also open up to progressive, environmentally friendly, manufacturing supporting and constructive smart politics for a secure future for NZ.

                      They could well get 15 to 20 or more per cent (many non voters) if they organise, campaign and run their party well. That is by next election, I mean.

                    • mac1

                      Reply to xstasy’s comment below.

                      Starting up a new left party? A series of failed options so far and a current (Mana) which is burdened with a leader given to silly statements. I have no energy for that. I’ll stay with Labour since I have seen them through from the Kirk years- my first Conference in 1973. (Got in trouble then as a young long hair who was most upset by a dodgy procedural move by Arthur Faulkner and a late ring-in to the Foreign Affairs policy remits committee. Now those guys were right wing, at least socially and in foreign policy.

                      Best of luck with that. I’d have thought that the Greens were an alternative, but MMP allows for a leftish house of many mansions, so long as the threshold is reached and especially also if the non-voters can be re-energised.

                    • Anne

                      Ahh Mac1, I remember that 1073 conference! My first one too. Feelings were running high especially over the Vietnam War. I remember the long haired students of both genders (including Helen Clark) who happened to be sitting in front of me. They repeatedly moved motions to have our soldiers brought home immediately – yes its all happened before folks only in a different part of the world. As a newcomer I didn’t know which way to vote so didn’t vote at all. Got some filthy looks from my peers including Helen Clark. We later became friends. :)

                    • Anne

                      Ahh Mac1, I remember that 1973 conference! My first one too. Feelings were running high especially over the Vietnam War. I remember the long haired students of both genders (including Helen Clark) who happened to be sitting in front of me. They repeatedly moved motions to have our soldiers brought home immediately – yes its all happened before folks only in a different part of the world. As a newcomer I didn’t know which way to vote so didn’t vote at all. Got some filthy looks from my peers including Helen Clark. We later became friends. :)

                    • mac1

                      Anne, the motion that got me really going was advocating the conversion of the army into a civil defence force. After the Vietnam War, and as a pacifist because of that war, that well and truly met my beliefs.

                      I can also remember being threatened with ejection for circulating a petition around the floor of the conference which was a no-no unbeknown to me. I also remember a very sick looking Norman Kirk shrunken inside his too large shirt collar, walking with a stick.

                      In those days, incredible as it may seem, I belonged to an ordinary branch that had 1500 members.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      1500 members is very roughly a quarter of the total financial membership strength of Labour today nationwide, excluding affiliates.

                    • McFlock

                      that must be all shearer’s fault, too

                    • Anne

                      I can also remember being threatened with ejection for circulating a petition around the floor of the conference which was a no-no unbeknown to me.

                      Whoever told you that was talking a load of old cobblers. What’s the difference between a delegate’s petition and candidates running around lobbying delegates which used to happen all the time and – as we know – still happens.

                      I also remember a very sick looking Norman Kirk shrunken inside his too large shirt collar, walking with a stick.

                      That was 1974. I was convinced he would fall over dead at any moment. Such a courageous prime minister and to see him like that was tragic. As was the case with so many others, he was the reason I joined the Labour Party in the first place. And yes… I came from an electorate that had between 1200 and 1500 members. Every year we had to knock on all their doors to collect the annual subs – $5 per member I think it was.

                      I must ask you:

                      I remember a tallish, skinnyish fellow with dark (maybe black) long hair and a small beard who was always leaping up and down wanting to have a say in just about every remit. Was it you? :razz:

                    • mac1

                      Anne, no, ’twas another. I have never spoken on the floor at Annual Conference. I’m of average height, more a prop than a winger, have (still) brown hair and apart from all that….no.

                      The bloke who tried it on with me was an organiser, and an older delegate from my LEC had to mollify this codger. He was in his rights, but didn’t like long hairs.

                      CV, very few join organisations of any ilk, especially the young. They’re too busy, working all sorts of hours. They’ve been told for too long that politics is a sorry business, that politicians are all corrupt, that one person can’t make a difference, etc etc etc. They have been taught to be selfish. They have been misled by the corrupt themselves who do not want an engaged, vigorous, questioning, ethically minded, outward-looking youth.

                      Why do so many people not vote?

                    • xtasy

                      mac1 – at 10.20 pm on 07.03.:

                      “Why do so many people not vote?”

                      Because they feel disempowered, irrelevant, treated with disregard, contempt even by the systems in place, treating them as mere “numbers”, only “using” them when it suits their agenda, because the parties never put into practice much of what they claim to bring in on programs.

                      Also the whole world is more interconnected than ever before, controlled by information, transport, business and financial systems and networks, that force everyone to put own concerns, thoughts and interests behind the forces operating and upholding the impersonal systems in place.

                      Even the internet is more “controlling” than actually “liberating”, and what would you do if something brings it down for days, weeks perhaps, you would not be seen or heard or read here.

                      Work in office towers, on assembly lines, factory ships processing fish, at meatworks, even in supermarkets makes people numb and slowly robot like and not human anymore, despite of health and safety.

                      There is just the freedom of escapism left, and that is what many younger ones prefer to indulge in, rather than challenge a system they see as too powerful.

                      And political parties of size are all revolving around agendas around narrow “centric” spectrums, as they see themselves powerless to change the systems in place. So they rather work within them, same as a media catering mass produced crap.

                      Welcome to 2013!

    • alwyn 19.2

      Well the Greens and New Zealand First both seem to be supporting Labour.
      Perhaps people look at the Labour party with Shearer, Mallard, Goff, King and Robertson and take the view that anyone who wants to help them get into power must be totally nuts as well?
      It’s an explanation anyway.
      The same would apply to the confidence rating. You might not have great confidence in National but it’s hard to see how you could have any confidence in a party that, if Chris Trotter has any credibility, is in the process of tearing itself apart.

    • Addison 19.3

      If you look at the trend over say the last 6 polls both voter intention and confidence in the government are up. In this last poll there is a dip but from quite a high point.

  20. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 20

    The government is as popular as the day it was elected in 2008.

    I predict:

    1. Wailing that the polls are rigged

    2. Vague claims (supported only by anecdote) that “people are waking up”

    3. Loud calls to move further left by people who have not noticed that the Mana party has nearly no measurable support in the polls.

    • Colonial Viper 20.1

      Yep, time to move to the Left, you know, govern on behalf of the people, not on behalf of international financial capital.

      It’s a radical idea.

      • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 20.1.1

        That would see Labour sink to Mana Party levels in the polls.

        • Colonial Viper 20.1.1.1

          Why? NZers like socialised government and socialised government services. A lot.

          • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 20.1.1.1.1

            That must be why the Mana Party is doing so well in the polls and the National Party are doing so badly.

            Oh, hang on…

            • Colonial Viper 20.1.1.1.1.1

              Oh fuck mate you’re right, Mana and Labour suddenly be exactly the same!

              • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell

                Oh, so you want them to move left, just not very far.

                OK. Good luck.

                BTW: any idea why the National Party is so unprecedentedly popular despite being only a little but left wing?

                • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell

                  “little bit left wing”

                • vto

                  I have no idea why this government remains so popular, but it may be similar to reasons various other regimes have been popular in the past, like, um, that German party in the 1930’s.

                • Colonial Viper

                  National unprecedentedly popular? As popular as what? The plague?

                  Of course the whole ediface relies on one man.

                  Steven Joyce :D

                  (well him and English)

              • aerobubble

                yeah. Labour, in the final week of Goffs election decide to resonate with the Green’s anti-asset sales. They failed to sell the tax free threshold, or the CGT, or anything they were doing, because all I remember is the Greens anti-asset ads.

                And then when Dunne holds the key to asset sales, Labour could not find the strength to say Dunne you’re Done, we cant work with you if you think National have a mandate to sell assets, when you yourself ran on a anti-asset sale position.

                So Labour failed because it failed to sell its policies, it failed to differentiate itself from the Greens, it failed to fight its corner, and leaves people feeling bored when they support Labour, atleast with Key you can feel strength in destroying the kiwi way of life, the economy, environment and future.

  21. Addison 21

    So what will the next 18 months bring. Labour will still be debating the leadership of Labour. Meanwhile the Government will have sold the assets and assets sails will be forgotten. They will then spend the money on things that will be popular schools hospitals, things Labour will feel obliged to oppose! Or they will bleat that National are trying to buy the election andNational will romp home. National have made the unpopular Descisions early in their term and will make the popular ones in the last year running upto election day. Bets on National governing alone this time helped by no tea party scandal!

  22. higherstandard 22

    Who gives a fuck ?

    Whether one or the other of Labour or National get in makes no difference to life in general, go for a swim read a good book, listen to some music, have a walk in the great outdoors and spend less time wittering on blogs…. mens sana in corpore sano and all that.

  23. infused 23

    “I’m not really in the mood to piss around with analysis tonight. You’ve heard me moan about the state of Labour enough lately.”

    No, please go on :)

  24. Rob 24

    So the Greens are down too, and have been consistently flatter than Labour also, but that’s Labour’s fault too, right Zetetic et al?

  25. ad 25

    Presumably people have seen the Chris Trotter article yesterday in which he names the names on precisely who are the attack dogs, who was rewarded as a result.

    Strangely there seems to be some correlation between a vacillating support for Labour in the polls, and completely betraying the Labour membership to have any meaningful democratic input into the leadership.

    So the Shearer leadership consistently screw over its own membership, and people really do get the message, and it shows up! Fancy that!

    • Anne 25.1

      Lets name the pack members in alphabetical order:

      Jacinda Ardern =- aha… that explains her ‘controlled’ fury following Chauvel’s valedictory speech.
      Clare Curran = no surprises there.
      Kris Faafoi = doing what he was told to do?
      Darien Fenton = very disappointed. Always saw Darien as someone who was open and fair in
      her dealings.
      Phil Twyford = ditto.
      Megan Woods = ?

      Special place for Mr Fink, also known as Chris Hipkins:

      Mr Hipkins youthful countenance became an ugly mask of rage as he railed against the proposition that, to avoid a contest in Labour’s new electoral college, the party leader must be endorsed by sixty percent-plus-one of his caucus colleagues.

      • Winston Smith 25.1.1

        In Hipkins defence he seems to be one of the few MPs landing hits on the government.

        • Anne 25.1.1.1

          Don’t think the behaviour has been confined to members of the Labour caucus. It trickled quickly down to LEC level. Telling tales out of school was and probably still is occurring. A trick deployed a couple of times in my neck of the woods was to send an email requesting viewpoints (supposedly for a general discussion that never occurred) and I responded to them in all honesty – assuming my views would remain within the confines of the LEC. Then finding further down the track that in fact they had been passed on to a memeber of the ABC club.

          Sadly Winston Smith is probably correct. For as long as they continue to behave in this current infantile manner, they will not be regarded by sufficient voters as an alternative government.

          • Anne 25.1.1.1.1

            Oops – this comment is supposed to be a reply to Winston Smith @ 28.

            The edit function can’t come soon enough but no criticism of Lynn. I don’t know how he does it all…

        • xtasy 25.1.1.2

          Winston Smith: He may do so, and fair enough, but that does not make him a fair player within a “team”, as what the Labour caucus should be seen and working like. Sometimes “bullies” run the show, even showing some “success” in performance.

  26. Elizabeth Bourchier Real Labour 26

    Those bad bad pollsters!

    Dear Darien Fenton should get them up against the wall, line she did with the Service worker at the Ellerslie Conference!

    Perhaps that boy Hipkings should scream at the pollsters, like he did to the membrship at the Ellerslie Conference.

    • Te Reo Putake 26.1

      Those things never happened, so what’s your point?

      • Elizabeth Bourchier Real Labour 26.1.1

        I was there, sweetie.

        I and hundreds more saw Hipkin’s “performance” at the mike.
        I’ve had the Darien story from members who were there who I trust.

        • Te Reo Putake 26.1.1.1

          Yeah right. I was there too and Hipkins did not scream. He wasn’t a happy camper, but he did not scream. And the ‘members you trust’ are clearly having you on and given that you have no evidence to back up your ludicrous claim that Darien abused members of the union she is a life member of, you really should withdraw and apologise.

          • Colonial Viper 26.1.1.1.1

            You are correct, Hipkins did not “scream”, but he did raise an angry, entitled, voice towards the membership. I imagine he knows exactly who I am too, but I’m not going to .

            Re: Fenton and the Service Workers, I was not in on that meeting, but heard immediately afterwards from some people who were there and quite angry and disappointed with her attitude.

            • Colonial Viper 26.1.1.1.1.1

              going to hold back on relaying what I saw and heard.

              • Anne

                Why CV?

                There’s not a hell of a lot they can do to you now – surely.

                I’ve revealed what happened in my neck of the woods (see 25.1.1.1)

                It’s of no consequence because I’ve already been sent to the local equivalent of Siberia.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Ain’t nothing wrong with Siberia, Anne.

                  That’s where the Soviets kept their best military units at the start of WWII.

                  • Anne

                    It’s also where they built their equivalent to Concentration Camps. :evil:

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Yes that too…

                    • xtasy

                      Anne: And others, consider talking to Cunliffe and others, to start a TRUE LABOUR PARTY perhaps. Just an idea. Why keep banging your head against the walls?

            • Te Reo Putake 26.1.1.1.1.2

              Cheers, CV. EBRL has claimed a couple of times that Darien abused SFWU members. The first time the claim was made I checked with mates in the Servos who were at the meeting and they confirmed there was robust debate, but it was comradely and there was no abuse from anyone, let alone Darien. I can fully understand if the members were disappointed or even angry about whatever position Darien was taking, but to claim she got ‘them up against the wall’ is rubbish.

              And re: Hipkins, he was definitely on the defensive, as were a few of the MP’s. But, actually, the contributions from all members who spoke during conference were, for the most part, well reasoned and not OTT.

              • Anne

                I agree with that analysis. During the conference itself the contributions were reasoned and polite on both sides. It was commendable and I left feeling very proud of Labour. It was afterwards that it all turned OTT – on the part of the Shearer/ABC faction. Reason and commonsense flew out the window and hasn’t yet returned.

                • Anne

                  It’s appropriate to add to the above that I didn’t learn what was going on behind the scenes (ie. the harassment and bullying of some delegates) until after the conference was over. Interesting that no-one tried it on me. Think they might have known it would be a waste of time. :)

  27. Joe Bloggs 27

    My sources assure me that Trevor Mallard has a very cunning plan…*-0

  28. Winston Smith 28

    There are a number of reasons why Labour is doing so poorly (or rather not poorly but not making headway) and why National is rating as highly as it is.

    At the moment no one thinks Labour could govern, they cannot even seem to run their own party so how do you think they would run a country?
    – Short answer is they cannot so you cannot expect people to want them in power.

    National on the other hand appears to be united and while some MPs (Hekia you should fall on your sword) are letting the team down on the whole National seem competent and mature, in comparison to Labour.

    The solution to this is in Labours own hands, whether the can do what they need to do is another story,

  29. js 29

    Chris Trotter’s vindictive piece today will have those in the Beehive smiling. Whose side is he on?

    • quartz 29.1

      The side of Labour Party members.

    • Colonial Viper 29.2

      Curran is part of an insider team happy to dish it out to ordinary party members like myself, and even to their own “colleagues”.

      I suspect it isn’t Trotter’s photo next to the definition of “vindictive” but rather a team photo of the Labour caucus ABCs.

    • xtasy 29.3

      js: He is NOT a member, he clearly states, he considers himself to be though on the left and have interests in policies supporting the left. So guess, what, maybe he has a point. Labour has for quite some time only been “left” in words, few believed.

  30. The Roy Morgan survey of New Zealanders’ views of the most important issues makes for interesting reading.

    If you look down to the detailed ‘issues’ under economic and social, many of the leading economic issues (except the first) are distinctly concerns of the left (very generally): poverty/inequality; unemployment/jobs; cost of living.

    Many of the ‘social issues’ are distinctly concerns of the right (very generally): crime/law and order, breakdown of the family; drugs; etc.

    Yet, economic issues are overwhelmingly the main issues according to New Zealanders (49.4 vs. 20.1%). Environmental issues are rated the main issue in New Zealand by only 6.9%.

    My guess is that National is seen as better at the first economic issue (general handling of the economy/financial crisis/recession/etc.) but perhaps being criticised for the other economic issues (unemployment and inequality) but then also ‘cleans up’ on the social issues.

    The picture is different when the main issues facing the world are concerned. Still the economic issues are in the lead (43.2%) but followed by 15.5% for social issues being the main issue and 14.5% saying environmental issues are the main issue for the world.

    • xtasy 30.1

      Puddleglum: Yes, if you look at the media in this country, that has for years now become a fan brigade for John Key, turned rather rightist, that is dominated by private print and broadcasting media, where even remnants of “state” public media try desperately to lower themselves to commercial level interests and superficial, trivial rich “info tainment”, are you surprised at all, that so many actually vote and poll the way they do?

      I am not. Now advertising and commercial focused broadcasting is not done frivolously and without effect and reason. Why would any enterprise or even political lobby group “advertise”, if it would not have any effect?

      It does work, same as Goebbles convinced a lot of Germans that Hitler was an honest and great guy!

  31. Treetop 31

    Does a poll have to use reliability and validity like research has to, to avoid an inaccurate result?

    • Colonial Viper 31.1

      nope. The methodology is usually secret and the base data never published or made available for scrutiny.

  32. Yes 32

    The problem with left is they just make things up

    • Colonial Viper 32.1

      Yes and we the Left could make stuff up much better if we could afford the corporate bills from Crosby Textor, Colenso and Saatchi

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    Mana | 18-09
  • Labour stands on proud record on Suffrage Day
    Women have come a long way in the 121 years since New Zealand became the first country to give them the vote on September 19 1893, but there is still more to do, Labour’s Women’s Affairs spokesperson Carol Beaumont says....
    Labour | 18-09
  • Polling Booths asked to treat Maori voters with respect
    “Polling booths without Maori roll voting papers, Maori people not being offered assistance to vote, people getting sent from Whangarei to Wellsford to vote, Maori people getting turned away from voting because they didn’t have their ‘easy vote’ card, Maori...
    Mana | 17-09
  • Aussie Liberals embroiled in Key campaign
    John Key needs to explain why Australia’s Liberal Party is interfering in New Zealand domestic politics and is encouraging Kiwi voters across the ditch to vote for National just days out from the election, Labour’s campaign spokesperson Annette King says....
    Labour | 17-09
  • The MANA Plan for Beneficiaries and Income in Waiariki
    Median Personal Income for Waiariki is $21,700. Over 13,000 Maori who live in Waiariki rely upon a form of government benefit including the Unemployment Benefit, Sickness Benefit, Domestic Purpose Benefit and the Invalids Benefit. “If you’re lucky enough to have...
    Mana | 16-09
  • Māori development crucial to New Zealand’s future
    Labour recognises the concern of Māori about child poverty and the rising costs of living, and in Government will make a real difference to the wellbeing of whānau and iwi, Labour’s Māori Affairs spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says. “As our Māori...
    Labour | 16-09
  • MAORI PARTY – DON’T COMPLAIN … WALK
    “If the Maori Party are serious about stopping government spying on NZ citizens then they should tell the Prime Minister to either stop doing it or they will walk away” said MANA leader and Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira, on...
    Mana | 16-09
  • JOHN KEY SUPPORTING LABOUR
    “There is something really sick about a National Party Prime Minister coming out in support of a Labour candidate” said MANA leader and Tai Tokerau MP, Hone Harawira, after hearing that John Key is urging voters to back Labour in...
    Mana | 16-09
  • SHUT DOWN THIS GOVT NOT KAITI WINZ – Nikora
    “I’m going to make it as hard for you to get help as I can” is Paula Bennett’s message to the people of Kaiti  said MANA candidate Te Hāmua Nikora today in response to the news that National will close...
    Mana | 16-09
  • Winegums make for better polling – Harawira
    I wanted to laugh when I saw the Native Affairs poll the other night (Hone Harawira 38%, Kelvin Davis 37%) because it was almost the same as the one they did back in 2011”, said MANA leader and Tai Tokerau...
    Mana | 16-09
  • The Leadership of MTS Lied – Harawira
    “Normally I’m happy to tell people that I was right but when I received the news about the staff cuts at Maori Television, I had nothing but sympathy for the three Maori media leaders who are going to be made...
    Mana | 16-09
  • Privileges Complaint Laid against Prime Minister – Harawira
    MANA Movement Leader and Te Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira has today lodged a Privileges Complaint with the Speaker regarding the Prime Ministers denials in parliament that he knew anything about Kim Dotcom before 2012. “Information made public today appears...
    Mana | 15-09
  • Sharples’ new appointments are out of order
    The new appointments to the Waitangi Tribunal announced by Dr Pita Sharples this morning are completely out of order given the election is just five days away, says Labour's State Services spokesperson, Maryan Street. “This Government continues to show disdain...
    Labour | 15-09
  • MANA Movement Housing Policy
    “When families are living in cars, garages, cockroach-infested caravans and three families to a house then we have a housing crisis”, said MANA leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau, Hone Harawira. “When you have a housing crisis for low-income...
    Mana | 15-09
  • Bigger than the Foreshore and Seabed – Sykes
    “Over the past week I have received some disturbing information that has led myself and a number of Maori lawyers to conclude that this National - Maori Party - ACT and United Future Government are going to put an end to both...
    Mana | 14-09
  • MANA wants Te Reo Māori petition fulfilled
    Hone Harawira, MANA Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Annette Sykes, MANA candidate for Waiariki Te Hāmua Nikora, MANA candidate for Ikaroa Rāwhiti  “More than four decades have passed and the petition calling for Te Reo Māori in schools...
    Mana | 14-09
  • Primary focus on the critical issues
    A Labour Government will prioritise New Zealand’s agricultural sectors by recreating a Rural Affairs Minister and appointing a Primary Industry Council and a Chief Agricultural Adviser. Releasing Labour’s Primary Sector and Rural Affairs policies today, spokesperson Damien O’Connor says the...
    Labour | 12-09
  • Maori Television fears confirmed – Harawira
    ...
    Mana | 12-09
  • More ghost houses from National
    The Government’s desperate pre-election announcement of more ghost houses won’t fool Aucklanders wanting action on the housing crisis, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “These are ghost houses, to go with National’s ghost tax cut. Families cannot live in ghost...
    Labour | 12-09
  • National bows to union pressure over travel time
    National has reluctantly bowed to pressure from unions and adopted Labour’s fair and sensible policy to pay home support workers for the time they spend traveling between clients, Labour’s Associate Health spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “This decision is long overdue...
    Labour | 12-09
  • Party members and affiliates – the real losers in Labour’s leadership f...
    Hey, wanna do a back room deal that cuts the members and affiliates out? Cunliffe must be reeling. He has lost failed Ilam candidate James Dann. It must cut as deep as the loss of Steve Gibson. Apart from providing Claire...
    The Daily Blog | 30-09
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, the election res...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, the election result...
    The Daily Blog | 30-09
  • The rich get richer
    Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman highlights the growing inequality in this article in the New York Times. The left wing slogan that the “the rich get richer” is a fact of almost perverse power. The most recent period of expansion in the...
    The Daily Blog | 30-09
  • A brief word on reinvading Iraq
    So after telling the country before the election that NZ would not send forces to Iraq, lo and behold now he’s won the election with a full spectrum dominance political majority, Key is suddenly now looking to join the re-invasion of...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • A brief word on the importance of ACT, Maori Party and United Future to Nat...
    I’m a far right wing clown who attacks tax money going on anything collective, gimmie some cash and privilege.  One of the great successes of National has been to implement hard right policy but have it sold as moderate. For some NZers,...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • Labour’s Angst
    Was Labour’s predictably low vote David Cunliffe’s fault? Was it policy? Was it something else that has aroused perceptions of electoral carnage? My analysis of the numbers suggests that, as uncertain voters made up their minds, there was a late...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • Information wars: Gaza as “the last taboo”, the threat of mass surveill...
    “When the truth is replaced with silence” wrote the soviet dissident Yevgeni Yevtushenko, “the silence is a lie.” There has been a silence these past months full of noise, static and sound bites of those in power justifying their violence,...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • When the media say they covered Dirty Politics – did they?
    I was watching The Nation in the weekend, and watched the defenders of NZ media up against Minto telling him he was wrong in his claims of media bias and that the media covered Dirty Politics. I laughed. When the...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • GUEST BLOG – P Campbell – To the Left with love
    A week after the general election results I feel wrung out emotionally, having been through the disappointment, depression and anger of seeing  another right wing government elected overwhelmingly by winning support from the parts of NZ that will never benefit...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – I will be the new Labour Leader!
    One week after the election, while I was still waiting to be consulted about contributing to the review on what went wrong, what do you know? There is a leadership challenge. So instead of opting for a united, thoughtful and...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – A Prescient Post
    A very prescient pre-election post by Martyn Bradbury tells us why the Labour Party are at war now. “The NZ First-Labour Party attack strategy against Internet MANA better work” Despite Martyn Bradbury warning them this Right Wing strategy “Better Work”...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – W(h)ither Labour (!/?)
    There’s an old saying that success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan. Not so in the Labour Party, wherein soul-crushing defeat on a scale unseen since 1925 definitely has many fathers (and more than a few mothers and...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • At the end of the day…
    At the end of the day…...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • Cynicism towards Key’s sudden desire to help children in poverty
    Cynicism towards Key’s sudden desire to help children in poverty...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • Internet MANA the election and the media
    I’ve been very critical of media reporting of Internet MANA during the election campaign and not surprised at the predictable response from representatives of the corporate media establishment. I wasn’t going to carry this further but was asked at the...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Rachel Jones – A superficial discourse analysis of a superfic...
    On Sunday there was a story about Paddy Gower and his detached retina in the Herald on Sunday. Really? I hear you ask. Really? Yes, really. Pam Corkery will have sprayed toast crumbs over her dressing gown. The reporter has become...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • Terrorising Australia’s Muslim population
    We should be suspicious when 800 police conduct “terror” raids across Australia, but only one person is charged with a relevant terrorism offence (of which we know few details). We should be suspicious of the lurid tales of terrorists planning...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • Another Labour leader has resigned and as per usual, the media lost its min...
    Another Labour leader has resigned and as per usual, the media lost its mind. I know the Labour party has its problems and I’m not even going to try to prescribe what should be done about it. But what I...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – Loyalty, Leadership and the Labour Party
    My first after the election and I can only say I’m feeling pretty sad.  It was a terrible result, and feels even more so knowing the number of volunteers hours, hard work & sacrifice made by so many people who...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • A Study in Party Stability
    . In terms of long-term stability, one party above stands above all others, with the exception of personality-driven groups such as NZ First and United Future. That party is the Greens. If the Labour Party wants to look elsewhere for...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • Cunliffe vs Robertson – Round 2
    Much to the disappointment of the NZ Herald and other right wing pundits who have decided they would like to appoint the next Labour leader, Cunliffe has surprised by deciding to damn the Caucus and appeal directly to the members...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • The tasks before the left and labour movement
    Anyone on the left would have been disappointed at the result of the election. There was an opportunity to win, but that got lost through a combination of factors. There were tactical decisions made by Labour, the Greens and Internet-Mana...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • From Fiji’s dictatorship to ‘democracy’ – the AUT student team on t...
    Mads Anneberg’s profile on Ricardo Morris and Repúblika. David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific. THREE STUDENTS from AUT University covered Fiji’s historic “from dictatorship to democracy” general election this month. While the election arguably legitimised Voreqe Bainimarama’s so-called 2006...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • David Cunliffe Resigns As Labour Leader – Forces Robertson Out of the Bel...
    David Cunliffe has made a smart move, resigning as the leader of the Labour Party so as to force a leadership primary campaign. The move draws rival Grant Robertson out of the beltway to parts of the country where he...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • Deep thought vs Deep prejudice
    . . This letter to the editor appeared in The Listener, on 27 September, and caught my attention; . . Mr Dawson wrote in response to one of those typically unthinking comments which  condemned the poor for their “unbridled, reckless...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • The NZ National voters elected
    The NZ National voters elected...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – The post election postmortem is giving me post p...
    I feel the need to contribute to the discourse. This is a new experience for me. Not having an opinion, but expressing it on a popular forum in a public sphere. That’s why I have waited till now and put...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • A dictionary of education terms and definitions, brought to you by the let...
    Free to all TDB readers, please enjoy your very own cut-out-and-keep handy primer of terms that I predict you will need to know over the next three years… Achievement Gap (noun) Synonym for wealth gap. ACT (abstract noun) Intangible. Reported to exist in...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • A Mines Rescue brigadesman’s perspective on the Pike River Mine
    My husband and I lived in Greymouth in 2010, we were a coal mining family.  The day Pike River Mine blew up and the days following changed us profoundly, as it did for so many.  This is a Mines Rescue...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • The Left Triumphant! A Counterfactual History of the Last Twelve Months.
    DID IT REALLY HAVE TO END LIKE THIS? Reading through the commentary threads of the left-wing blogs it is impossible to not feel the anger; the sense of betrayal; the impression of having had something vital ripped from their grasp;...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • GUEST BLOG – Myles Thomas: The media won it!
    Make no mistake, John Key is a clever communicator – reasonable, authoritative and relaxed – but without the media he wouldn’t be PM. Depending on your viewpoint, New Zealand’s news media are either a bunch of Grey Lynn lefties or...
    The Daily Blog | 25-09
  • Not Learning Lessons Past: the West’s Response to IS
    In an earlier posting Ukraine, United Kingdom, Ireland, Scotland, I noted that the first lesson of conflict learned by Robert McNamara was “understand your adversary”. If we have honourable objectives, our first and most important weapon is empathy. In the Vietnam War,...
    The Daily Blog | 25-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Dr Jarrod Gilbert – Proof of David Farrar’s deception: my ...
    In the lead up to the election the Minister of Corrections Anne Tolley launched a gang policy. In order to justify the government’s approach she used gang figures that overstated the gang problem. Not by a little bit, but a...
    The Daily Blog | 25-09
  • SPECIAL FEATURE: Stuart Nash – Red To The Rescue?
    SPECIAL FEATURE by Selwyn Manning. IF THE ELECTION RESULT which was dished out to Labour was not enough to incite an immediate leadership primary, then the caucus’ refusal to recognise David Cunliffe as the leader should cement it. Now is...
    The Daily Blog | 25-09
  • Has the one party state crackdown begun already? Left wing NZ activist grou...
    Well known left wing activist social media group, ‘John Key Has Left Down NZ’ has been shut down on Facebook. At 11.40pm last night, Facebook, without any warning shut the group down siting a breach of terms of service as...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • Why Cunliffe should probably just let Nash & Robertson win
    We have to face some very unpalatable home truths. If you are a left wing political person, best you put your vote now to the Green Party, although you’ll have to do that all the while the Greens frantically tell you...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • The graceless win of Kelvin Davis
    The graceless win of Cameron Slater’s mate in the North, Kelvin Davis is difficult to swallow. Here Cameron Slater’s mate in the North is shitting on Hone Harawira by calling Hone all steam, no hangi as Kelvin rubs his ganged up win into...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • So Labour shifted too far to the left?
    So Labour shifted too far to the left?   Here’s the ill-judged view of Josie Pagani in the Pundit “Labour must change”: “At the last election I made myself a heretic when I wrote a column mentioning how unpopular the...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • Uncomplicated Loyalties: Why Cunliffe and the Labour Left Cannot Win
    THE STORY of David Cunliffe’s leadership of the Labour Party has been one of missed opportunities and unforced errors. That he was the only choice available to those who wanted to rid the Labour Party of its neoliberal cuckoos is...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • So we can expect this now?
    So we can expect this now?...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • Can Labour be saved? Why Whaleoil & National won and why we need a new ...
    As the shock of my optimism that NZers would recoil from the real John Key as exposed by Dirty Politics and mass surveillance duplicities wears off, I am surprised to find that the right in NZ are not content with...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • Three more years (up shit creek and paddling hard)
    “If the future is not green, there is no future. If the future is not you, there is no future”. Emma Thompson’s stirring words to the climate marchers in London last Sunday are worth considering in the aftermath of the...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • One Party State
    In years to come this election will be seen as a historic turning point towards one party rule. I don`t mean this literally, absolute single party dictatorship is not in prospect. In the New Zealand context though, one party has...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • No More. The Left Falls.
    . We cannot be beaten down Because we are down already. We can only rise up and if you should beat us down, We will rise again. And again. And again… And when you tire of beating us down, We...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • Hang tight everyone – Marama Davidson campaign reflection
    To the many people who had expressed their overwhelming support for me to enter Parliament this election – thank you. That the Greens held steady in a big loss for progressive politics is an achievement. We are hopeful that after...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • New flag for NZ once Key signs TPPA
    New flag for NZ once Key signs TPPA...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • Reflecting on Elections Past
    There are a number of past elections that can give the left in New Zealand guidance and hope. Two major points though. Major parties require leaders who can bridge the political divide through strength of personality, vision of what it...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – The Reptile Room
    I stress, at the outset, that I’ve got nothing against reptiles. Some of my best friends are reptiles. Some say I am one, but I’m not really. I just emulate that ability to sit, stationary for hours in court, eyes...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • The success of right-wing counter messaging in the election
    One of the reasons National won the election was due to its success in counter messaging – and the way so many media commentators ran with th the right-wing spin. Here are some examples. Dirty Politics The original message was...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • New Flag competition
    New Flag competition...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • Submissions sought on herbicide for weed control in maize
    The Environmental Protection Authority is calling for submissions on a herbicide to improve broadleaf weed control in maize. The substance CADET contains 100g fluthiacet-methyl in the form of an emulsifiable concentrate and would contain a new active ingredient...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Jesse Mulligan Lives Below Poverty Line
    Jesse Mulligan Lives Below Poverty Line TV personality Jesse Mulligan will live on the equivalent of the extreme poverty line this October in order to raise awareness of sex trafficking. Mulligan will survive on $2.25 for his food from October...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Narratives from the 2014 Election: What do we learn?
    Narratives from the 2014 Election: What do we learn? - Sue Bradford, Russell Brown & Kirk Serpes discuss....
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Voices from Oceania to speak out on climate change
    Voices from Oceania to speak out on climate change at launch of Pacific environment report...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Changes to Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre messages
    The Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management advises that while changes to Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre messages come into effect from today (Wednesday 1 October), the Ministry has been, and remains, the authoritative voice for tsunami...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Police remove banner at Statoil Offices in Wellington
    Oil Free Wellington hung a banner at 9:30 this morning at the Statoil office headquarters in Wellington as the Petroleum Summit opened in Auckland. The banner, which read 'Statoil out of Northland: Stop Deep Sea Oil', has now been removed...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Mixed massages raise concerns
    Mixed massages raise concerns for Te Taumata Kaumatua Ngapuhi nui tonu, and Te Wakaminenga O nga Hapu Ngapuhi....
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Union Slams Port Boss’s Pay Rise
    The Rail and Maritime Transport Union (RMTU) says Lyttelton Port CEO Peter Davie’s 18% wage rise, taking his pay packet to $1.24m, is unjustified and inflammatory. ‘Lyttelton port has an appalling health and safety record, with three deaths on...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Prisons expert Ron Nikkel to speak in Auckland October 15
    Prison Fellowship NZ and JustSpeak have the privilege of hosting the former president of Prison Fellowship International, Ron Nikkel....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Hundreds of educators protest IES in Rotorua
    Four hundred educators from around the country took their opposition to the Government's controversial Investing in Educational Success policy to the public today....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Crime drops by 3.2 % in the 2013 / 2014 financial year
    Criminal offences dropped by 3.2 % in the last financial year according to figures released today through Statistics New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Narratives from the 2014 Election: what do we learn?
    I would like to invite you to a Fabians Reflection on "Dirty Politics, Dotcom and Labour’s worst result" with Colin James, Keith Ng, Stephanie Rodgers and Richard Harman. They will provide a debrief of analysis and lessons from the 2014...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Oil Free Wellington drops banner from Statoil headquarters
    Today members of Oil Free Wellington have targeted the offices of Statoil, by attaching a banner reading 'Statoil out of Northland: Stop Deep Sea Oil' to the entrance of Vodafone on the Quay Midland Park, where Statoil's New Zealand office...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Media Statement from Karen Price
    “After a period of intense media attention and scrutiny of our family, I set up and used an anonymous Twitter account over the weekend and made a number of comments that I deeply regret....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Greenpeace disrupts Simon Bridges’ speech to oil industry
    Greenpeace activists have disrupted the opening speech by Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges at the Petroleum Summit in Auckland this morning....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • New Zealand Red Cross Responds to Drought in Tonga
    New Zealand Red Cross has sent an aid worker and two desalination units, to turn seawater into safe drinking water in the drought-hit Ha’apai islands of Tonga....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Can you ever tell if an email is real or forged?
    Computer industry veteran Brian Eardley-Wilmot warns that we should never take claims about stolen emails at face value....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • NZ MPs to attend the ASPG Annual Conference in Sydney
    New Zealand MPs to attend the Australasian Study of Parliament Group Annual Conference in Sydney...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Independent Maori seats still needed in Parliament
    “He’s got to be joking!” is the reaction of the president of the Maori Party, Rangimarie Naida Glavish to a call by a former Labour Minister of Maori Affairs, Dover Samuels, for debate by Maori on whether the Maori electorates...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Support for Democratic Rights in Hong Kong
    Rallies supporting the rights for universal suffrage will take place all over New Zealand today and tomorrow...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Trout Mass-Poisoned in New Zealand
    Trout Mass-Poisoned in New Zealand The Graf Boys New Zealand has some of the best trout fishing in the world! Every year thousands of international visitors wade pristine rivers in search of the freshwater game fish....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • New Zealand’s 2014 Hottest Vegetarians Crowned
    With winter gone things are heating up, and things just got even hotter with the crowning of New Zealand’s hottest vegetarians, says animal advocacy group SAFE. Marking World Vegetarian Day, 1st October, director James Napier Robertson and actor...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • A day to remember our duty to look after our senior citizens
    Human Rights Commissioner Dr Jackie Blue says International Day of the Older Person (1 October) is a United Nations day to celebrate our senior citizens, but also acknowledge the need to protect our kaumatua, or older people from abuse and...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Clear data needed on impact of benefit sanctions on children
    A lack of data on benefit sanctions means there is no way of knowing whether welfare reform is helping or harming children, says Child Poverty Action Group....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • The socialist alternative to austerity and war
    Public meeting: After the New Zealand election—the socialist alternative to austerity and war By Tom Peters 29 September 2014...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • New recruits to boost border protection
    Twenty six new recruits began an intensive nine-week training course in Auckland today that will see them graduate as Customs officers in time for the busy summer season....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Dwindling Mallard population shows up ‘pest’ myth
    The pro hunting organisation Fish & Game is researching the causes of the decline of the mallard duck population, upset at the prospect of fewer ducks to kill....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Support for Democratic Rights in Hong Kong
    New Zealanders in Auckland will gather on Wednesday to support the rights for universal suffrage in Hong Kong....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Campbell Live Exclusive Interview with David Cunliffe
    David Cunliffe resigned as leader of the Labour party on Saturday; but he still wants the top job....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Action needed on cycling safety
    “Clearly we aren't doing enough to protect the 1.5 million New Zealanders who ride bikes,” said Mr Morgan....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • World Rivers Day Passes Without A Whimper
    Sunday 28 September was World Rivers Day to celebrate clean, flowing rivers and caring about them. But a recreation-conservation advocacy the Council of Outdoor Recreation Associations of NZ (CORANZ) says the day seems to have slipped by without...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • The Kiwifruit Claim: Q&A
    1. Who is running The Kiwifruit Claim? The Kiwifruit Claim was founded by kiwifruit growers representing well in excess of 10% of the industry. 2. Why are you running this claim? The introduction of Psa into New Zealand had devastating...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Fed Farmers Need to Be Weaned
    The Taxpayers’ Union is calling on Federated Farmers to make a firm commitment to reject any future Government funding, after it was revealed that the lobby group had received over $200,000 of payments in recent years....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Children paying the price for charter school stitch up
    New Zealand children will be paying a high price for a one-seat deal between ACT and National, with an expansion of the beleaguered charter school system says education union NZEI Te Riu Roa....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Hikoi From North Reaches Oil Conference Tomorrow
    Today: The Hikoi opposing Statoil plans for seismic testing and deep sea oil drilling has marched through Dargaville and later be welcomed to Piringatahi Marae, West Harbour,Tamaki Makaurau/Auckland....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Communities Still Count
    The efforts of many organisations to influence the electorate and the political parties they voted for in the lead up to the 2014 Election is over. The voting public has spoken and provided a strong endorsement to the centre-right National...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Eleven social enterprises get ready to take off
    Eleven teams from across the country will take part in the Launchpad, Ākina’s programme to get social enterprise ideas off the ground....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • An open letter to the Prime Minister
    in which Transparency International New Zealand asks the Prime Minister to ensure integrity underpins all work he leads "in the best interests of all New Zealanders"...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Paula Bennett ‘great work’ acknowledged – McVicar
    “Paula Bennett, as Minister of Social Development, has contributed significantly in lowering our crime rate and preventing further victims.” - McVicar...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Key’s Restraint in Propping up ACT Welcomed
    The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming the announcement that ACT MP David Seymour will not be appointed as a Minister....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Only Concession is from the Taxpayer
    Responding to the confidence and supply agreement reached between John Key and Peter Dunne’s United Future Party, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says:...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • A Tent for Any Tenant
    AUT students and Salvation Army Manukau Community Ministries team up to raise awareness, as South Auckland’s housing situation moves from crisis to collapse...
    Scoop politics | 28-09
  • Cycle Safety Panel Draft Report Seeks Comments
    The Cycle Safety Panel Draft Report and Recommendations was published on 25th September 2014 and the panel are inviting comments. Lucinda Rees from NZ School Speeds, the organisation campaigning for consistent speed limits outside schools, is encouraged...
    Scoop politics | 28-09
  • Labour’s Review – Terms of Reference Agreed
    Labour's Review - Terms of Reference Agreed Following a meeting of its ruling New Zealand Council yesterday, Labour has released the terms of reference for the comprehensive review initiated following its 2014 election result. The review will comprise three...
    Scoop politics | 28-09
  • The final countdown for Kiwi smokers
    There are just two days left until many smokers stubb out their cigarettes for the last time and embark on Stoptober – New Zealand’s first national quit-smoking month....
    Scoop politics | 28-09
  • “In A Democracy People Win And People Lose”
    “In A Democracy People Win And People Lose” – Chris Hipkins Labour Senior Whip I would say to all of the caucus and all of the members let's actually hear the arguments from the people who want to be leader,...
    Scoop politics | 28-09
  • Campaign to make Murder of Unborn ”Safe and Legal”
    The IPPF have launched an international campaign through its 161 affiliates including the New Zealand Family Planning Association [NZFPA] to make the murder of the unborn safe and legal and accepted as a human right. This is an acceleration of...
    Scoop politics | 28-09
  • Grant Robertson Labour leader hopeful on TVNZ Q+A
    “Look I think what we need to be is relevant, clear and consistent with New Zealanders about the Labour Party's values,” said Labour leader hopeful Grant Robertson on TVNZ’s Q+A programme....
    Scoop politics | 28-09
  • Labour Needs to Get House in Order Before Deciding Leader
    Ex Labour party leader and possible repeat contender David Shearer says the Labour Party is going about the post-election period in the wrong way....
    Scoop politics | 28-09
  • Hate merchants at it again with smear tactics
    “It’s disappointing to see the hate merchants at it again with yet another attempt to smear and silence a health professional who’s doing research they disagree with,” says Ian Powell, Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists...
    Scoop politics | 28-09
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