Written By: - Date published: 11:52 am, October 24th, 2011 - 68 comments
Categories: david parker, election 2011, john banks, Shane Jones - Tags: jonathan young, paul goldsmith, Peter Dunne, pita sharples
As more oil leaks from the Rena, National’s beginning to leak too. I’ve just been hearing about their latest internal polling, and it ain’t pretty. As the earlier Horizon poll suggested, the Rena has been an inflection point for National and the masses of soft support they’ve accumulated is drifting away.
I’m told that the Nats own numbers show them down 5% since the Rena/double downgrade/S&P lies/throat-slitting clusterfuck hit them, which puts their support in the mid-40s.
The big beneficiary has, as predicted, been the Greens who are at 15%. Labour’s on 30%.
45% plays 45% with the minors making up the last 10%.
And, on the subject of the minors, we already knew the Nats’ internal polling shows John Banks is toast in Epsom, but it also shows Peter Dunne in big trouble in Ohariu. Just as Espomites don’t enjoy being national laughingstocks, people in Ohariu are sick of voting for the hair.
The revelation that John Key himself will be voting for Paul Goldsmith was a kick in the pants for any National voters considering ‘taking one for the team’ and voting for Banks or Dunne. (Btw, note to David Parker: be careful not to make Epsom a race between you and Banks or about a Labour-led government vs National-led one – that only favours Banks).
Polling also shows that, in Taranaki, Andrew Little and Jonathan Young are neck and neck, as are Pita Sharples and Shane Jones in Tamaki Makaurau.
So it’s very, very much game on.
And don’t expect this to be a blip that fades. It’s more like the Orewa speech, which successfully recast a whole lot of what Labour had done to that point in negative terms. Many soft National supporters saw the non-response to Rena and have re-examined how Key has handled Pike River, the Christchurch earthquakes, the double downgrades, and successive economic crises.
The good news is that the pumping of oil off Rena is going OK but the damage to National will leave a more permanent stain.