Written By: - Date published: 10:15 am, May 1st, 2008 - 63 comments
Categories: crime -
Tags: 'new zealand sucks' campaign, garth mcvicar, myths, sensible sentencing
It’s hard to know why people keep interviewing Garth McVicar from Sensible Sentencing. The organisation has no credibility, no research every statement on policy is really just ‘Garth guesses X’. And of course, they made those disgusting comments around the death of Pihema Cameron.
Nevertheless, he was on National Radio this morning regarding new stats showing the prison population has doubled since the 1980s. What did he attribute the growth in prison numbers to? ‘Our growing crime rate’. That would be this growing crime rate, Garth?
The prison muster is up due to a combination of larger population, longer sentences, and better crime fighting. Sensible Sentencing denies that and says it’s due to higher crime even though crime is down.
McVicar’s answer to his fictional problem is, of course, more Police State and more dead taggers.
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I heard McVicar on RNZ this morning and sent them an angry email. Having this creep front crime stories is like going to the National Front for comment on treaty claims.
I expect to hear McVicar’s brand of ignorance from the likes of Newstalk ZB but RNZ should know much better than this.
Anyone who lives in Christchurch knows that the youth crime problem is getting out of hand.
These young people aren’t part of the stats, because there crimes are deemed to be to petty, but go into the city at night, and odds are that you will get hit by a bottle some kid has thrown out of his car.
You might wake up to see that your fence has been spray painted, and I don’t think politicians understand how frustrating it is, when after you have been a victim of a crime, to hear someone on the nightly news say “Well its art, its their culture”
Our pathetic former Mayor Garry Moore once said of boyracers “They bring colour to the city”
I’m sorry you can give me all the stats and hard data you like, just go into Christchurch at night and see how these youths has destroyed the central city atmosphere.
Of course if the Police took a hard line, Labour and the Greens would complain about police brutality. What they have failed to understand is that the public has had a gutsfull and want something done about it.
Of course if the Police took a hard line, Labour and the Greens would complain about police brutality.
I don’t recall Labour complaining about police brutality re the recent “anti-terrorist raids” in the Ureweras. But (like the stats and hard data) don’t let the facts get in the way of good rant.
I’m sorry you can give me all the stats and hard data you like, just go into Christchurch at night and see how these youths has destroyed the central city atmosphere.
Hilarious, and typical from many of the online right – “screw your hard data and stats, I’ve got a bunch of unverifiable anecdotes”
I’m sure this has been dealt with before, but does ‘recorded crime’ differ from convictions? i.e. I accuse someone of a crime (thus reporting it) but cannot prove it.
Can you give some stats with say victimless crimes (i.e. drug use, speeding, etc) removed?
I.e. so that its only *real* crime, rather than crime invented by busy body politicians?
mikeE – so the billion dollar P industry is victimless (I’ve never heard of a crime being committed to fund a drug habit for example, and junkies are highly productive members of society who never do bad things under the influence), as is speeding (I nominate you to tell that to the people who die in crashes due to other people speeding)?
That reminds me of Nelson Muntz – “Shoplifting is a victimless crime – just like punching someone in a dark room“.
Tane:
Walk through central Christchurch at night and you will know what I mean.
These kids aren’t getting arrested, so they are not part of the stats. The city is terrible at night, boyracers are consistently trying to bottle other cars, young people are vandalizing property outside the cafes and bars, private property is being spray pained, and these young people are threating law abiding citizens.
Its just disgusting to wake up to see some jackass has spray painted your fence , smashed a few bottles on your driveway, and ripped out your letter box, and that is just in a residential area.
Christchurch city is awful at night, you just have to walk down any street and you will have some young retard, yelling abuse at you,smashing up busstops, grabbing anything that isn’t tied down and throwing it at cars on the roads, just basically acting like animals, its repugant behaviour.
The public is sick of it, and the public want stronger action.
So much for going out for a nice meal in central christchurch these days. The city is shocking at night you cannot deny that.
Isn’t speed the direct cause of a lot of crashes? I’m very happy with that being a crime, as the chance of me becoming a mangled victim increases when someone chooses to speed.
Brett, to be fair I don’t go to Christchurch much, but I don’t think you can base your policy decisions on anecdote.
I live in Christchurch and youth crime is running rampant and police seem powerless to stop it. I am currently under Victim Support after a vicious assault at my front door. Things have gone crazy in this city.
Walk through central Christchurch at night and you will know what I mean.
I used to do this all the time in the 80′s, I do it occasionally now. It was unpleasant then, it’s unpleasant now. But I don’t think it’s changed much.
Tane:
Im not basing anything on an anecdote, our city is not safe at night, and its getting worse and worse, too much petty crime has now become acceptable in this town, I’m not sure what its like in other parts of the country, but my city at night is terrible.
” But I don’t think it’s changed much.”
rob, it is more violent now. Try it and you’ll get my drift. Don’t go alone.
rob, it is more violent now. Try it and you’ll get my drift. Don’t go alone.
I remember an incident from the 80′s (70′s ?) where someone was knifed in The Square for a leather jacket. There has always been violence there. I do think it’s an interesting question – why Chch – but I don’t know that it’s changed so much over time.
I’ve never had any trouble in Christchurch and I can tell you I’ve noticed Wellington CBD feels a lot safer at night now than it did ten years ago – as does Auckland.
Brett, everything you’ve said is anecdotal.
memo to myself…do not go downtown for any greasy chips or the possibilty of a louche encounter after 6.30pm
I’m getting p****d off with rightwingers carrying on about high crime rates, when overall they have been coming down over the past decade. How about some credit for THAT?
And, while the causes of crime are complex, you can’t tell me that slashing benefits and the pay of the low paid in the early 1990s did anything but worsen problems in some areas. Who was responsible for THAT?
So now we’re supposed to be concerned only with so-called “real crime” are we? Well, in case you haven’t noticed, there have been big campaigns to do something about domestic violence and part of that has been encouraging the victims to come forward. I’m bloddy proud that at last there is real effort being put into doing something in this area, and sorry it didn’t happen sooner (under National).
But it does mean that rates of reported “violent” crime have increased by a little over the past ten years or so. The surprise is that they haven’t increased more because of the higher rates of reporting of domestic violence.
(Part of the problem with these data is that far from all crime is reported.)
Certainly, the very slight increase in reported violent doesn’t equate in the real world to a massive upsurge in crime. My message to rightwingers–especially McVicar–is STFU until you have something constructive or sensible to say.
Did you miss Annette King’s comments in the herald this morning ?
higherstandard, It’s not clear to whom your question is directed, but if it’s me, no, I did not miss them.
I thought Annette King’s comments about not getting on top of the p problem and looking for new solutions were honest, if not brave, and perhaps an invitation for some non-partisan thinking.
Your question simply illustrates my point about the right not being able to engage with these issues in s constructive or sensible way. So, STFU.
“But it does mean that rates of reported “violent’ crime have increased ”
Actually, you can’t prove that – equally, I can’t prove the rate of reporting has gone down or stayed the same – because we simply don’t know what the reporting rate is (or previously was).
You’re making the same anecdotal inference as ‘rightwingers’
HS,
When you very first started posting here you acted like an idiot, even your screen name is a giveaway that you weren’t really interested in anything other than trolling.
Then for a while you were interesting and engaging, but lately you’ve been slipping back into idiot mode.
Just saying.
JP
No I won’t as you say STFU.
I also thought good on Annette King for fronting but to continually repeat the mantra on this site that the crime rate is coming down while not acknowledging that we have serious issues that are yet to be tackled with methamphetamine, gangs and youth violence says to me that your comments about the right not being able to engage on the issues in a sensible way are mirrored by the posters on the left also.
PB
Yes I’ve also noticed that there is less tolerance on this site for anybody who has views in conflict with the political left.
And your screen name suggests you are interested in …. betting for a lady called Pascal >>>
Just saying
[lprent: In terms of moderation? Not really. I don't really care who I moderate (and neither do the other moderators). It is the behaviour that concerns us. That mainly comes down to starting pointless flamewars and what we consider are comments or attacks on the site and its posters.
I'd point out that most of the moderation is to do with attacks on the site and the posters. For some reason the lefties don't have a problem with the sites existence, some on the right appear to have more of an issue with it. I have no idea where you stand (centre-right would be my guess), but I can't recall ever having to moderate you.]
In terms of Christchurch, I’ve never been out there but have heard it’s particularly unsafe at night from friends who studied there. Times Square in New York used to be extremely dangerous, but increased policing has made it a relatively safe place.
Economist Steven Levitt (you might have seen his book Freakanomics) identified the following four factors which explain the drop in US crime through the 90′s:
“increased incarceration, more police, the decline of
crack and legalized abortion.”
And 6 that did not play an important role:
“Other factors often cited as important factors driving
the decline do not appear to have played an important role: the strong economy,changing demographics, innovative policing strategies, gun laws and increased use
of capital punishment.”
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf
“Hilarious, and typical from many of the online right – “screw your hard data and stats, I’ve got a bunch of unverifiable anecdotes’
Tane: hard data and stats can be screwed to reflect any arguement. If you think NZ is getting safer you must live in gated community.
No one is denying that those problems exist HS, they are only denying that the record is as bad as the National party says it is. Or is it out of bounds to call out the national party for dishonesty without addressing everything else under the sun at the same time?
You allude to the fact that no one denies those issues here when you say “not acknowledging”. But that is fundamentaly different from what the right does. The right not only doesn’t acknowledge’ Labours record, they lie about it.
That’s the point.
HS 2.06 QED
well it is in the nats interest to have a confused drugged up electorate spaced out on the delusion that they have infinite energy and unlimited choices…who are the entrepreneurs and where do they get their protection from? STOP FRIGGING AROUND WITH THE FIGURES AND GET TO THE POINT!
“delusion that they have infinite energy and unlimited choices”
Yes Randal – keep the population dumbed down with no hope of a better life theres a good socialist.
D4J:
“I live in Christchurch and youth crime is running rampant and police seem powerless to stop it. I am currently under Victim Support after a vicious assault at my front door. Things have gone crazy in this city.”
I think it’s more because Christchurch is mental than anything else (apparently it has a bizarrely high incidence of mental-illness). Seriously, the number of friends I’ve had who have moved from Chch to Dunedin and have told me that it’s a much safer-feeling city. But, really, I don’t true that is. That’s the problem with “I reckon” anecdotes. They don’t actually mean a lot in a debate when put against hard data.
Oh god, I have to start editing my comments.
mike: “hard data and stats can be screwed to reflect any argument.” (spelling corrected)
Why is this so often the last refuge of the right when they are caught telling porkies?
Mike, statistics can be manipulated, but if you were to learn a little about statistical analysis, you would find that most of the manipulation can be readily detected. The figures used here come from sources like the Ministry of Justice and Department of Statistics and can therefore be considered unbiased politically, if subject to the flaws that any official data exhibit.
But really, are the impressions about, say, the safety of central Chch after dark more valid? I think that central Auckland after dark is fairly safe, but would not suggest any garden city dwellers move here on that basis. They’d be better to look at the hard data first.