Written By: - Date published: 4:18 pm, July 7th, 2014 - 8 comments
Categories: election 2008, election 2011, election 2014, greens, labour, national, nz first, Politics, polls, uncategorized - Tags: polity
Reposted from Polity, with a minor correction in the title.
At my briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, I made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up in David Cunliffe’s speech.
National has dropped six percent each time.
For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim. All I did was find any published poll where the field dates included the day three months before election day1, then compared that to the final election result.
2008 election: Final results compared to simple polling average 90 days prior
|Roy Morgan||28 July – 10 Aug||48|
|Colmar Brunton||9-14 Aug||51|
2011 election: Final results compared to simple polling average 90 days prior
|Roy Morgan||15-28 Aug||52|
This six point drop in National’s performance often went to parties opposed to National. Famously, in 2011 the big beneficiaries were New Zealand first, who rocketed from around 2.5% in the polls all the way to 6.7% three months later. In 2008 the Greens were significant net beneficiaries of camaign-time changes. For completeness, I should note that in those two elections not many of National’s went to Labour2, but I think Labour’s ground game, both in terms of our volunteer corps and with the technology that helps them work, is streets ahead of 2011.