National’s first strategic mistake

Written By: - Date published: 12:22 pm, January 22nd, 2014 - 109 comments
Categories: election 2014, john key, national, nz first, Steven Joyce - Tags:

Commenting on National’s strategy after the 2008 election, Steven Joyce said the first principle of campaigning was  ‘Don’t go fighting the last war.’ No re-run of the “teapot tapes’ fiasco is presumably the reason for John Key’s  early announcement of the parties National could go into government with, might go into government with, and would not go into government with. In doing so, I think Key and Joyce have made a major strategic mistake.

The have framed the 2014 campaign as a contest between two blocs; National and a raggle-taggle on the one hand, and Labour/Greens on the other, with Winston Peters’ New Zealand First as the swing player. In doing so they have given away National’s trump card for gaining Winston’s support.

“Support the largest party” was always going to be the strongest argument pushing Peters towards National after this coming election. But the situation in 2014 will be very different from 1996, when Winston previously played this role. He will give absolutely nothing away till the fat lady has sung, but he knows from bitter experience how slippery is the National Party welcome mat.

But if the election is between two different blocs, then the question for him becomes which bloc has the policies that are most compatible. New Zealand First’s economic nationalism is a much more comfortable fit for Labour and the Greens than National’s sell-it-away. And I don’t agree with others on this site that Winston and New Zealand First leads to instability.

In the first instance any arrangement is very unlikely to be a formal coalition as in 1996. That lesson will have been learnt. Also Winston and Labour in 2005 were much more stable than New Zealand First and National in 1996.

All the upcoming instability is likely to be on the other side. Seeing Peter Dunne and John Banks prop up unpopular policies like asset sales has not been edifying. Their replacements look no better. What this indicates however is that National is not that confident that its vote will hold up. And it assumes that New Zealand First will be back in Parliament.

 

109 comments on “National’s first strategic mistake ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. The Baron 1
    22 January 2014 at 12:36 pm

    Mike,

    Surely the success of the LAB/NZF coalition in 2005 was due to “birds of a feather stick together”. In this case, it was that both Peters and you and your lot were unprincipled thieves at rorting funding sources. Dodgy donations on one side an pledge card fiasco on the other. What proud achievements you crow about.

    A pox on both your houses, thief.

    • Colonial Viper 1.1
      22 January 2014 at 12:39 pm

      And all the while, the National Govt gifts hundreds of millions of tax payer dollars in fees and commissions to corporate banksters to sell off the nation’s family silver.

      • The Baron 1.1.1
        22 January 2014 at 4:18 pm

        Yawn. All perfectly legal, regardless of what you think of the policy.

        Was that pledge card theft ok with you, CV? Why?

        • AmaKiwi 1.1.1.1
          22 January 2014 at 4:50 pm

          “All perfectly legal.”

          Everything Hitler, Stalin, and Mao did was legal because dictators change the laws to make what they do “legal.” (GCSB)

          Fair. Ethical. Moral. Just. Are those words in your vocabulary, Baron?

          • The Baron 1.1.1.1.1
            22 January 2014 at 4:53 pm

            Selling things that you said you would sell is fine on my moral compass.

            Is stealing $500k to help yourself get re-elected ok with yours?

            • AmaKiwi 1.1.1.1.1.1
              22 January 2014 at 5:23 pm

              I can’t recall. I don’t remember. I have no recollection.

              If I ever shook hands with John Key, afterwards I would count my fingers to make sure they were all still there.

            • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.1.1.2
              23 January 2014 at 8:06 am

              So you’re complaining about small change (which was 100% paid back) but yawn while the banksters are walking away with hundreds of millions of tax payer funds?

              What a fucking apparatchik for the oligarchs.

        • Frank Macskasy 1.1.1.2
          23 January 2014 at 12:57 pm

          It’s amazing how the Right can make all manner of rorts “legal”…

          • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 1.1.1.2.1
            23 January 2014 at 1:08 pm

            @ Macskasy
            That is why the wealthy and aspiring-to-be wealthy vote the right-wing in, isn’t it? To make the rorts legal….the idiots omit to realise the degenerating effect this has on the ability of our system to function well -or at all.

  2. Ross 2
    22 January 2014 at 12:38 pm

    “What this indicates however is that National is not that confident that its vote will hold up. And it assumes that New Zealand First will be back in Parliament.”

    I think the first comment is correct but am dubious about the second. Assuming Winston First will be back is a rather big assumption, and I don’t think Key is assuming that. He’s simply saying that if he has to deal with Winston, he’ll consider it but he’d rather not have to.

    Let’s face it, Key will do anything to hold onto power. I’d be surprised if he didn’t talk turkey with Winston.

    • Bearded Git 2.1
      22 January 2014 at 4:35 pm

      Key has made another dumb error. He has made it plain he will talk to Winnie as a last resort, giving the impression he will be holding his nose as he talks. Peters will not like being treated this way.

      Key should have simply named the parties he is willing to work with, which is what Cunliffe has done-Cunliffe 1 Key 0.

      • Vagabundo 2.1.1
        22 January 2014 at 11:12 pm

        Not only that, but there’s also a very high likelihood that he’ll lose the biggest weapon in his arsenal – his ability to appear not to be a typical politician. The fact that he’s pretty much explicitly stated he is open to talks with NZF after such strong repudiations 3 and 6 years ago, complete with the words “it’s a matter of political principle,” he’s ended up looking like just another craven power-hungry shit flailing desperately to stay in office.

  3. Lanthanide 3
    22 January 2014 at 12:49 pm

    More interestingly I think was Key’s suggestion that they would “be transparent” about things this time and wouldn’t be having “cups of tea”.

    Can a leader of a party legitimately say “please vote for this other party in this electorate, not us”, which is something Key never said in 2011, it was all lame nods-and-winks instead.

    Or, perhaps National won’t stand a candidate in Epsom and potentially any seat Colin wants, as a “signal without saying anything”? But then National contest all of the seats except the Maori ones, so this also would seem like a bad look.

    • Will@Welly 3.1
      22 January 2014 at 2:58 pm

      To fulfill the requirements to get your full entitlements to broadcasting, a party has to stand candidates in every seat. But hey, Bill English is “looking” for a seat – that’s what you do – you stack the seats you “want your allies to win” with list M.P.’s.

  4. Tracey 4
    22 January 2014 at 1:03 pm

    Key has been pretending to be transparent since 2008.

    Winston was instrumental in the thaw betw usa and nz (regardless of whether you think that is a good thing or not)

    The glen donation and the pledge card… to the person above. I trust you wont be voting national… bretheren with joyce mccully and keys fingerprints on it…

    • The Baron 4.1
      22 January 2014 at 4:15 pm

      Ah yes, I see more bashing based on religious intolerance huh.

      The left’s demonisation of the Exclusive Brethren for daring to participate in politics has been absolutely disgusting. I don’t agree with their methods, but the way you fine soldiers of socialism have carried on his truly shameful. Of course, the unions can collaborate with Labour in underhand ways as much as they like, but heaven forbid anyone else does it.

      oh, and nice try in trying to paint my stripes on me too, Tracey. Wrong as usual.

      • Tracey 4.1.1
        22 January 2014 at 5:40 pm

        . I was referring to National’s deception about the Brethren… capitalism caused the 80’s crash and GFC, your reds under the beds makes you the caricature not me.

      • greywarbler 4.1.2
        23 January 2014 at 9:43 am

        Baron
        ‘Absolutely disgusting, truly shameful.’ What fun. You’re back – trying to stir up a little stoush in a corner of the playground. And the rest of your idiocy. Blah blah. You just love it don’t you. Throwing imprecations and incendiaries around. Fireworks that go bang are so fascinating for the empty-minded.

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.3
        23 January 2014 at 9:49 am

        The left’s demonisation of the Exclusive Brethren for daring to participate in politics

        Interesting comment. So why do you think the Exclusive Brethren decided to change and sully themselves with the worldly and amoral filth of political mechanations?

      • mikesh 4.1.4
        23 January 2014 at 9:49 am

        There are rules which limit how much political parties and their candidates can spend on electioneering. These rules don’t make much sense if an ostensibly apolitical person or group can spend large sums in support of this or that party.

        Religious intolerance has nothing to do with it.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 4.1.4.1
          23 January 2014 at 9:53 am

          It does for me. Tory dogma is bad enough as it is without the addition of toxic religious drivel.

  5. Blue 5
    22 January 2014 at 1:03 pm

    This is an absolute gift if Labour use it right. The country is faced with a choice between having a Labour/Greens/NZ First arrangement (which has worked before) or having National cobble together a band of loonies – Colin Craig, Peter Dunne/whoever the hell is left in Act and trying to combine this with Winston Peters as well.

    I think the public are smart enough to bet on a stable, proven combination rather than the coalition of right wing crazies from hell.

    • You_Fool 5.1
      22 January 2014 at 1:51 pm

      Last election Key and mates used the 5 headed monster to drum up hysteria against a Lab lead coalition. This time Key is almost promising to be the one leading such a hydra, but instead of having 3-4 support parties with multiple seats and with support on the improve he will have 3-4 single seat dead parties, with long term Nat lover Winston and possibly a 2-3 seat conservative party. That just screams stability and ability to manage the country.

      /sarcasm

    • alwyn 5.2
      22 January 2014 at 2:51 pm

      Labour/Greens/New Zealnd First?

      • Te Reo Putake 5.2.1
        22 January 2014 at 3:06 pm

        Sounds good to me, Alwyn. As others have noted, Winston was easy to work with in 2005. The Greens are clearly ready to be part of a government and what I heard Winston say on National radio this morning suggests strongly that he isn’t going to put a ‘me or them’ ultimatum to Labour this time round.

        And NZF’s stance on the Manufacturing enquiry also suggests a simple 3 way coalition is a runner:

        “NZ First joined with other Parliamentary Parties in conducting this Inquiry because we felt we had to put our political differences aside and act for the common good. ” – Winston Peters.

        • alwyn 5.2.1.1
          22 January 2014 at 3:13 pm

          My full comment is just below. I don’t know why that stub was posted. I don’t think you will agree with what I was saying in full.

          • Te Reo Putake 5.2.1.1.1
            22 January 2014 at 3:25 pm

            No worries, Alwyn, I’ve also accidently hit send too early using my smartphone and then had to edit in a hurry to try and make sense.

      • Paul 5.2.2
        22 January 2014 at 3:10 pm

        Well on the positive side, that’ll mean the reversal of asset sales. NZ First have promised to buy power companies back; they and the agrees will add some steel to Labour here.
        Also there should be a tightening up on the ownership of land.
        And the nurturing of a NZ manufacturing base.

    • alwyn 5.3
      22 January 2014 at 3:04 pm

      “Labour/Greens/NZ First arrangement (which has worked before)” you say. Pray tell me when that was, and 2005 -2008 isn’t the answer. The Green Party were not part of the Government between 2005 and 2008 and did not provide the Government with support on confidence and supply votes.
      That was mostly because Winston, and also Peter Dunne, refused to go into Government with them.
      To be fair I heard rumours at the time that the person pushing that behind the scenes was Helen Clark. I have no idea whether there was any truth in that theory.
      Now just when did the coalition you are talking about work as a “stable, proven combination”?

      Sorry TR. I’m not sure why the stub you replied to got posted. It was the start of this offering

      • Te Reo Putake 5.3.1
        22 January 2014 at 3:13 pm

        “The Green Party …. did not provide the Government with support on confidence and supply votes.”

        Wrong, Alwyn. The Greens did give support on confidence and supply. Sorry to burst your bubble.

        • alwyn 5.3.1.1
          22 January 2014 at 3:25 pm

          Wrong T.R.P. The Greens did not give support. Try looking at the Notes in
          http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_Labour_Government_of_New_Zealand#The_2005_election

          In the bit on the 2005 election it states the Labour got support from New Zealand First and United Future.
          It then says that “The Greens signed an agreement to abstain on votes of confidence and supply”. That’s abstain not the support that NZF and UF gave.

          • Te Reo Putake 5.3.1.1.1
            22 January 2014 at 3:31 pm

            Weird. This wikipedia article says they did give confidence:

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_general_election,_2005

            “The Green Party which had supported Labour before the election received no cabinet post (see below), but gained several concessions from the coalition on matters such as energy and transport, and agreed to support the government on matters of confidence and supply.”

            EDIT: The actual agreement allows the Greens to either abstain or support C&S: http://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/all/files/Green.pdf

            • alwyn 5.3.1.1.1.1
              22 January 2014 at 3:59 pm

              I see what you mean. I happened to check my belief about the support and got pointed to one entry in Wiki. It said what I thought was the case so I never looked any further.
              You happened to look elsewhere and got something that confirmed what you probably thought was the case, so you wouldn’t have looked any further.

              Technically, from the horse’s mouth of the actual document, I think I am correct. In practice of course I can’t see that it mattered that much although it theoretically might have limited Labour in upsetting Winston or Peter too much. If they lost them the Green Party would have been in a stronger position. Being allowed to support confidence is a bit pointless. I can’t imagine any Government going into an agreement that said another party wasn’t allowed to vote confidence in them!

              Actually paranoia is setting in. The ubiquitous Google has got so smart it can read our minds to find out what we want to be told. Then it only points us to things that confirm our views. Am I worrying to much? Are we all doomed? LOL

              • Te Reo Putake …
                22 January 2014 at 4:40 pm

                Ha! The commercialisation of confirmation bias; could be a real money spinner. If I get time, I’ll see if I can find the parliamentery voting records for 2005-8 and see which way the Greens voted. I’m still confident they voted for C&S, but happy to be shown they abstained.

    • Melb 5.4
      22 January 2014 at 3:37 pm

      Winston hates the Greens. Will a condition of his support be that the Greens remain outside Govt (and any important Govt roles), again?

      • Paul 5.4.1
        22 January 2014 at 3:40 pm

        What is your evidence for that?
        He and Russell Norman shared a stage together at the GCSB protest meeting in the town hall and the 2 parties share many similar policies, especially On topics like Asset Sales.

      • Te Reo Putake 5.4.2
        22 January 2014 at 4:40 pm

        No. Winston’s position 9 years ago is hardly relevant to today. I know this coz John Key said so yesterday afternoon.

    • AmaKiwi 5.5
      22 January 2014 at 4:58 pm

      Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party is the wild card in the election.

      I would not be surprised if they are in the next Parliament and NZF are not.

  6. Bill 6
    22 January 2014 at 1:04 pm

    Wondering how many people voted for Winston just because it was a given that Labour wasn’t going to form a government. What did the prospect of parliament being a dull, dull grey area where Goff would be habitually unable to make a monkey out of Key do for Peter’s…ie, a sort of protest vote…it’s all down the tubes, so we might as well have somebody in there who might at least make that bastard Key uncomfortable from time to time?

    Anyway. I’m picking that NZ1st won’t make it over 5% this time around.

    • Lanthanide 6.1
      22 January 2014 at 1:09 pm

      Certainly in the day before the last election, a lot of people on TS, including regulars, said they were going to vote for NZ First because they knew Labour didn’t have a chance if NZ First didn’t get over 5%. And it very nearly worked (despite what MSM and National would like you to believe).

      Will they get over 5% this time? I’m on the fence.

      I don’t buy Lynn’s continued statement that there’s a big bloc of NZFirst voters out there – I think last election’s result were a combination of desperation from the left and the teapot tapes blowing up on Key’s ass. Without those two factors I think a result hovering somewhere around, above or below, 5% is likely.

      • lprent 6.1.1
        22 January 2014 at 3:18 pm

        I don’t buy Lynn’s continued statement that there’s a big bloc of NZFirst voters out there…

        I often run across them. Typically they tend to be the older voters who can’t stomach either main party, are unwilling not to vote, think that the other minor parties are full of nuts, and are (in my opinion) protest voting for what NZ used to be. If you look at NZ and Winston, this is exactly the message that they go for.

        I know that these days my grey hairs make me part of the “club” because I literally didn’t run across many NZF voters until I was in my late 40s and my hair went grey. They usually only start talking about politics after you’ve been talking about the state of the world for a while.

        Have a look at the distribution of NZF party votes across the electorates. They are in small numbers across every electorate mostly without large variances.

        1403 Auckland Central
        4569 Bay of Plenty
        1278 Botany
        1391 Christchurch Central
        1801 Christchurch East
        1556 Clutha Southland
        3813 Coromandel
        1706 Dunedin North
        2522 Dunedin South
        2536 East Coast
        1657 East Coast Bays
        959 Epsom
        1786 Hamilton East
        2475 Hamilton West
        1648 Helensville

        etc… Usually between 1k and 2k with a few electorates with larger Maori population pushing the total up. It has been the same with varying base levels in EVERY election I have looked at their numbers for – back to 1996

        What is the bet that you are simply too young for them to talk to 😈

        • Paul 6.1.1.1
          22 January 2014 at 3:22 pm

          Yes, I meet old NZers, who voted National in the days of Muldoon and earlier, vote NZ First because they see it represents the old National Party before it became converted to neoliberalism.
          Old school conservatives not Randists.

          • karol 6.1.1.1.1
            22 January 2014 at 3:24 pm

            It’s pretty obvious from NZ First’s policies that this is what the Party represents.

          • lprent 6.1.1.1.2
            22 January 2014 at 3:46 pm

            Some of that is true. However I meet a few people who are my age – early 50’s who used to vote Labour or National and have started voting NZF at some time over the last couple of elections.

            Bearing in mind my usual anti-social behaviour, I’d say that there are enough incoming for to keep the well of voters from emptying. Certainly you can’t see any real trace in the voting record by electorate over the last decade of a big dieback based on the age demographics…

      • PapaMike 6.1.2
        22 January 2014 at 3:36 pm

        Winston got in last time as result of the Teacup saga, supported at the last minute by the Herald particularly.
        I doubt he will make 5% this time unless some sudden National media discretion occurs – it will not be a Teacup Ambrose saga this time.

        • Paul 6.1.2.1
          22 January 2014 at 3:38 pm

          OK, assuming your hypothesis is correct, who will 3% of NZ First’s vote go to?

          • The Baron 6.1.2.1.1
            22 January 2014 at 3:47 pm

            The rubbish bin?

            I’m not being facetious – they’ll be wasted votes. This isn’t any sort of transferrable system that allows them to go elsewhere.

        • Bearded Git 6.1.2.2
          22 January 2014 at 4:42 pm

          But PapaMike this time Winston/NZF have been in parliament for 3 years unlike at the last election. This gives them more profile and more dosh. Also Mike Williams says that Peters is working at well attended public meetings around the country. He will get the 5% I reckon.

          This is ok-he dislikes Key, will go with Cunliffe.

          • Colonial Viper 6.1.2.2.1
            22 January 2014 at 6:11 pm

            You gotta love Winston. He works those community hall meetings like no one else can. He’s great to watch in action.

          • JK 6.1.2.2.2
            22 January 2014 at 9:34 pm

            Oh yeah – Bearded Git – Gordon Campbell over on Scoop has another opinion

            ” …….. it (is) only wishful thinking to imagine that Peters’ opposition to the current government has ever been anything more than a theatrical illusion….. ”

            and I’m inclined to agree with him. Peters is a National boy through-and-through

            Remember how in 1996 (was it 1996 ? can’t remember) that Peters dillyied and dallied and we all thought he’d go with Labour, but surprise surprise, he went with the Nats instead.

    • You_Fool 6.2
      22 January 2014 at 1:52 pm

      I think some of it was soft NZF supporters being upset on the whole 4.5% in 2008 and no seats, but Act getting 3 (?) seats on ~3%

    • Will@Welly 6.3
      22 January 2014 at 3:10 pm

      I think NZF will, driven mainly by ex-Nat’s who can’t stand the Nat-Act coalition, but who will never vote left, but feel compelled to vote regardless. Winston’s appeal is that he represents what National once stood for, and forget all the hypocrisy, that’s what John Key detests the most – Winston represents what John and National once believed in. Like taking a knife and wedging it in your own stomach – in this case, absolutely divine !!

      • Paul 6.3.1
        22 January 2014 at 3:12 pm

        Many Nats I know are old school conservatives and they’ve been totally switched off them this term because of Asset Sales. Winston Peters and NZ First is their most likely place to register a protest vote.

    • Skinny 6.4
      22 January 2014 at 3:31 pm

      I was one pulled the pin on being a LP activist. I couldn’t support Goff, Labour were performing woefully in the House. Mine was a protest vote and I knew Peters would add fire power to the opposition benches. Back to the LP as soon as Goff got the bullet. Not impressed Goff is sticking around though, his TPPA cheerleading is a annoying distraction.

  7. Auskew 7
    22 January 2014 at 1:23 pm

    Key being transparent? Waahaa haahaa. He has not got to where he is today by being transparent. And he is not starting anytime soon or ever!

    Interesting post. Am with my good friend visiting from NZ at the mo and, coincidentally, we have been talking about the greedy, power-hungry and sell-out Key together with his dishonest lot.

    Will some of the Left activists here in Sydney or Australia help organise greater publicity to encourage some of us to cast our votes this year? We would love to return home if the opportunities exist. And hoping things will look up so we can think about retiring in NZ with our Australian dollars.

  8. Tracey 8
    22 January 2014 at 1:30 pm

    Interesting that at a time key is being praised by his followers for refreshing the party and government he promotes dunne a politician for how long?

  9. Clemgeopin 9
    22 January 2014 at 1:37 pm

    The Maori party is highly likely to implode in their vote too, with the Maori support sky rocketing for the Mana and the Labour party, which is a very good thing.
    So, Key will have three dead/dying parties: ACT, UF and MAORI to dance around their graves and eagerly pray for the birth of confusing Craig’s Conservatives and hope for the good grace of wise old Winston to give the panicking Key some much needed mouth to mouth resuscitation to keep the Nats and Key alive!

  10. Policy Parrot 10
    22 January 2014 at 1:44 pm

    Nary a surprise here. Does anyone actually believe that John Key would not have gone hat in hand to Peters if he needed him last time, or for that matter in 2008 if he had made it back?

    The only real reason why Key has ruled Peters in this time is that he figures that there is more votes to be gained (i.e. that of NZF supporters in kind) than lost. The other potential narrative is that Key thinks anti-Key/Labour-friendly voters might be scared off Peters if Key contenances a deal.

    Just reinforces that principle (which has been the same every election since 1996) that a vote for NZFirst is potentially a vote for National, and that the only way to oust John Key is to vote for a party which has explicitly stated their opposition to supporting National (i.e. Labour, Greens, Mana).

    TS did some great (although ultimately unsuccessful) posters and voting guides in the leadup to the last two elections, and I hope that this meme “only a vote for Labour/Greens/Mana will change the govt/Oust Key” forms a part of the campaign.

  11. McFlock 11
    22 January 2014 at 2:48 pm

    The have framed the 2014 campaign as a contest between two blocs; National and a raggle-taggle on the one hand, and Labour/Greens on the other, with Winston Peters’ New Zealand First as the swing player. In doing so they have given away National’s trump card for gaining Winston’s support.

    In doing so they have also done away with national’s trump card of 1:1, presidential-style, key-vs-labourleader televised debates.

    There’s no point in questioning the two larger-party leaders by themselves, as anything might be negated by the six-headed beast. So even if it’s parliamentary leaders only, it’s key+banks/bosc vs cunliffe+turei/norman+harawira, with dunne+peters vacillating between the two camps. Unless one of them smells blood and goes on the attack.

    • Colonial Viper 11.1
      22 January 2014 at 6:14 pm

      In doing so they have also done away with national’s trump card of 1:1, presidential-style, key-vs-labourleader televised debates.

      Which sorta makes you wonder what their internal polling has been saying about Key of late…

  12. captain hook 12
    22 January 2014 at 3:11 pm

    Donquixote is going to make a lot more mistakes this year.

    The main thing for theNZLP is to let poeple know how much the ordinary cost of living has increased since his gang of profiteers took power.

    • AmaKiwi 12.1
      22 January 2014 at 5:13 pm

      No, the main thing for the Labour Party is to deflect/counter Key’s snide remarks and change the public’s perception of Key as a nice, ordinary, trustworthy bloke.

      Personalities decide most elections. If Kim Dotcom is not extradited, he will be a major force in this election.

      • Colonial Viper 12.1.1
        22 January 2014 at 6:16 pm

        Yeah, people have tended to write him off due to the IP’s bumpy start, but this stuff happens and his team are on a steep learning curve. 10 months to elections – that’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge and anything could happen.

  13. karol 13
    22 January 2014 at 3:12 pm

    The righies are trying to spin Key’s back down on Peters as a strength, but few are really convinced (even Gower last night called it ey swallowing a few dead rats).

    Tim Watkin at Pundit:

    This is like no election year Key has faced before and he no longer has the luxury to espouse the sort of principles that saw him rule out a coalition with Peters in the past two elections.
    […]

    All four parties have lost support this term and can expect to receive fewer votes than in the past election. So to command a parliamentary majority he’s going to need another friend or more wasted votes (and he can’t risk relying on the latter).

    Key’s hope will be that the Conservatives can do the job for him and that its leader Colin Craig doesn’t over-reach between now and November. Talking about repealing this law or that in January only serves to box in National and the Conservatives and is unhelpful in the extreme. It just goes to show that he can’t gamble the House on Craig alone, and so he has to swallow a dead rat and refused to rule out his nemesis, Winston Peters.

    This shows just what lengths he’s willing to go to in his desire to stay Prime Minister. Because let’s make no bones about it, Key will have hated opening the door to Peters. Hated it.

    • Paul 13.1
      22 January 2014 at 3:18 pm

      Even Hosking on ZB and Plunket on Radio Live didn’t sound too comfortable about Peters.
      Nats spinning like crazy.

  14. karol 14
    22 January 2014 at 4:02 pm

    Always interesting when the rightie commenters and distractors are out in force – shows where they feel vulnerable.

  15. cricklewood 15
    22 January 2014 at 4:42 pm

    I’m going to side with it been a strategic move in that a large enough portion of Winston’s vote last time came from Left supporters voting strategically. I’m betting that they have looked at the numbers and between Kim Dotcom and Crazy Colin competing with Winston for airtime as the election nears thus denying him momentum in the lead up, have taken the punt that if they can scare off some strategic support they may be able to keep Winston a snitch under 5% on the day.
    Slightly risky but I’m not sure it’s a mistake.

    • Tracey 15.1
      22 January 2014 at 5:50 pm

      isnt there a danger that more will vote NZF because they think he will govern with key than who previously voted for national rather than risk Labour?

      • McFlock 15.1.1
        22 January 2014 at 5:55 pm

        I reckon he’ll take more national voters than labour voters, but I’m not certain he’ll be in a position to hold the balance of power.

        Although to some degree it depends on the swings and roundabouts of the campaign and the polling horse race.

    • Skinny 15.2
      22 January 2014 at 5:59 pm

      Yes well if your right they must surely know any attempt to knock Peters back out of the House will fail. All Winston has to do at any stage is right Key off stating any number of reasons like assets sales, Craig, Dunne, ACT, Banks, monetary policies, policies in general too far apart. Peters would have a field day grandstanding like the last election.

  16. middxkea 16
    22 January 2014 at 6:07 pm

    Because the numbers will be closer you will not get the Lab people voting NZF to get them over 5%
    I nearly did it myself as the best strategic voting option ( but couldn’t actually do it in the polling booth)
    You may have the opposite and get a few Nats doing the same.
    The hope is that enough of the Nats do it to get Winston to 4.9%.
    KDC is interesting ,depends on who he takes votes off.. probably everyone.
    National probably need to ignore the Greens but National are going to get down and dirty and throw everything at them. They have already started .
    This won’t be a bad thing as it will increase the Greens profile .

    Looking very like a Labour /Green/ Mana Gov to me.

    • Colonial Viper 16.1
      22 January 2014 at 6:19 pm

      You just can’t write off Winston, he’s the man who did the Parliamentary near-impossible and came back from the out-of-parliament electoral dead, even with a stack of deeply placed blue knives sticking out of his back.

  17. cricklewood 17
    22 January 2014 at 6:22 pm

    Thats true but he has the out that he said he could work with him prior and Winston has said he will talk with the party which has the greatest vote share first. After that it all depends on Wintson on balance one more term is likely all he has left in him so he will either take a plum roll offered and say a cosy retirement post or he will look axe Key as his final meaningful act in NZ politics. Its hard to imagine him getting his preferred role in a lab green coalition as there will be plenty of negotiating around roles.
    Not to mention if he his kingmaker he could well prevent a large number of more progressive policies.
    Bloody hard to pick what he would do…

    • Jim 17.1
      22 January 2014 at 9:34 pm

      “Its hard to imagine [Winston] getting his preferred role in a lab green coalition as there will be plenty of negotiating around roles.”

      Jim Bolger said that the ideal role for Winston was treasurer, because he delighted in saying no to other ministers, whereas if he was in a spending portfolio he would demand extra money to fund a spree.

      If Winston gets 5% (and I suspect he will, from social;y conservative Keynesians) then he could have stronger bargaining power with Labour than the Greens. It may end with the Greens outside again with only confidence and supply. What else are the Greens going to do? Bring down Labour and provide de facto support for the Nats?

      • cricklewood 17.1.1
        23 January 2014 at 7:23 am

        It’s possible but then you could well end up with a centre govt by proxy with the greens propping it up, Better than status quo maybe, but it makes it likely that nothing will really change (Wintsons hardly a leftie)

  18. gobsmacked 18
    22 January 2014 at 6:30 pm

    January polls mean even less than usual, but here it is anyway:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5389-new-zealand-voting-intention-january-22-2014-201401220409

    I suspect National’s internal polling has been telling them for months that Craig only makes headlines, not headway … Winston is a safer bet to bring the numbers they’ll need.

    • Lanthanide 18.1
      22 January 2014 at 8:18 pm

      Funny they say the polling period was 6 Jan – 19 Jan, since I got called on the 3rd of Jan.

      Wonder if that wasn’t counted or if their reported starting date is wrong?

    • lurgee 18.2
      23 January 2014 at 11:47 am

      The conservatives have a very smart looking office here in Palmerston North, up on College Street. The premises used to be a mushroom shop, of all things. I’m sure there is some telling significance in that. Colin Craig is fun guy?

  19. RedBaronCV 19
    22 January 2014 at 7:41 pm

    Thinking the othr night that JK is like Imelda Marcos without the shoes. Same MO, runs the coutry into debt and the proceeds are stuffed into the bank accounts of the already wealthy, then he sods off leaving us suckers to pay it back. And we don’t even get to look at a closet full of shoes.

  20. lurgee 20
    23 January 2014 at 8:15 am

    Let’s be honest – whatever Key had done, it would have been decried as a “strategic mistake” here.

    I’m not sure that reminding everyone that any Labour lead government is almost certain to have at least one more partner than any National lead government is such a bad move. I’m not sure Winston can work with the Greens, and the Greens would be pushy partners in a coalition – rightly, as the would make up a quarter of it – and Winston wouldn’t like that. Can you imagine the ghoulish pleasure he would experience, ripping into Russel Norman? At least in a National led government, the hangers on would know their place, as they would be single MPs or little more.

    I’ve said before that the Greens might be very wary of a formal coalition with Labour – they don’t want to be Lib Demmed down to 3% of the vote – and I suspect a coalition that includes Winston will be even more dubious to them. Coalitions tend to destroy minor parties, and with two biggish minor parties in a coalition, it would be a fight to see which one sustains the least damage – probabl by inflicting more on the other.

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago

  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago

  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago

  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.  During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner.  The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.  “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
    The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being considered
    State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • New Zealand condemns Iranian strikes
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel.    “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says.    "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plans
    Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand Chair
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board.   “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti.  “I have asked her to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Roads of National Significance planning underway
    The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Navigating an unstable global environment
    New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States.    “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • NZ welcomes Australian Governor-General
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for Winter
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • NZ and the US: an ever closer partnership
    New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Joint US and NZ declaration
    April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperation
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research.   “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Government redress for Te Korowai o Wainuiārua
    The Government is continuing the bipartisan effort to restore its relationship with iwi as the Te Korowai o Wainuiārua Claims Settlement Bill passed its first reading in Parliament today, says Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith. “Historical grievances of Te Korowai o Wainuiārua relate to 19th century warfare, land purchased or taken ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Focus on outstanding minerals permit applications
    New Zealand Petroleum and Minerals is working to resolve almost 150 outstanding minerals permit applications by the end of the financial year, enabling valuable mining activity and signalling to the sector that New Zealand is open for business, Resources Minister Shane Jones says.  “While there are no set timeframes for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Applications open for NZ-Ireland Research Call
    The New Zealand and Irish governments have today announced that applications for the 2024 New Zealand-Ireland Joint Research Call on Agriculture and Climate Change are now open. This is the third research call in the three-year Joint Research Initiative pilot launched in 2022 by the Ministry for Primary Industries and Ireland’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Tenancy rules changes to improve rental market
    The coalition Government has today announced changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to encourage landlords back to the rental property market, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The previous Government waged a war on landlords. Many landlords told us this caused them to exit the rental market altogether. It caused worse ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Boosting NZ’s trade and agricultural relationship with China
    Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay will visit China next week, to strengthen relationships, support Kiwi exporters and promote New Zealand businesses on the world stage. “China is one of New Zealand’s most significant trade and economic relationships and remains an important destination for New Zealand’s products, accounting for nearly 22 per cent of our good and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Freshwater farm plan systems to be improved
    The coalition Government intends to improve freshwater farm plans so that they are more cost-effective and practical for farmers, Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay have announced. “A fit-for-purpose freshwater farm plan system will enable farmers and growers to find the right solutions for their farm ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • New Fast Track Projects advisory group named
    The coalition Government has today announced the expert advisory group who will provide independent recommendations to Ministers on projects to be included in the Fast Track Approvals Bill, say RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones. “Our Fast Track Approval process will make it easier and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Pacific and Gaza focus of UN talks
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters says his official talks with the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York today focused on a shared commitment to partnering with the Pacific Islands region and a common concern about the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.    “Small states in the Pacific rely on collective ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Government honours Taranaki Maunga deal
    The Government is honouring commitments made to Taranaki iwi with the Te Pire Whakatupua mō Te Kāhui Tupua/Taranaki Maunga Collective Redress Bill passing its first reading Parliament today, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “This Bill addresses the commitment the Crown made to the eight iwi of Taranaki to negotiate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Enhanced partnership to reduce agricultural emissions
    The Government and four further companies are together committing an additional $18 million towards AgriZeroNZ to boost New Zealand’s efforts to reduce agricultural emissions. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says the strength of the New Zealand economy relies on us getting effective and affordable emission reduction solutions for New Zealand. “The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • 110km/h limit proposed for Kāpiti Expressway
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) will begin consultation this month on raising speed limits for the Kāpiti Expressway to 110km/h. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and this proposal supports that outcome ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand Biosecurity Awards – Winners announced
    Two New Zealanders who’ve used their unique skills to help fight the exotic caulerpa seaweed are this year’s Biosecurity Awards Supreme Winners, says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard. “Strong biosecurity is vital and underpins the whole New Zealand economy and our native flora and fauna. These awards celebrate all those in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Attendance action plan to lift student attendance rates
    The Government is taking action to address the truancy crisis and raise attendance by delivering the attendance action plan, Associate Education Minister David Seymour announced today.   New Zealand attendance rates are low by national and international standards. Regular attendance, defined as being in school over 90 per cent of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • World must act to halt Gaza catastrophe – Peters
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has told the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York today that an immediate ceasefire is needed in Gaza to halt the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe.    “Palestinian civilians continue to bear the brunt of Israel’s military actions,” Mr Peters said in his speech to a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Speech to United Nations General Assembly: 66th plenary meeting, 78th session
    Mr President,   The situation in Gaza is an utter catastrophe.   New Zealand condemns Hamas for its heinous terrorist attacks on 7 October and since, including its barbaric violations of women and children. All of us here must demand that Hamas release all remaining hostages immediately.   At the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Government woolshed roadshow kicks off
    Today the Government Agriculture Ministers started their national woolshed roadshow, kicking off in the Wairarapa. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay said it has been a tough time for farmers over the past few years. The sector has faced high domestic inflation rates, high interest rates, adverse weather events, and increasing farm ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • PM heads to Singapore, Thailand, and Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will travel to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines this week (April 14-20), along with a senior business delegation, signalling the Government’s commitment to deepen New Zealand’s international engagement, especially our relationships in South East Asia. “South East Asia is a region that is more crucial than ever to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Prime Minister launches Government Targets
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced further steps to get New Zealand back on track, launching nine ambitious Government Targets to help improve the lives of New Zealanders. “Our Government has a plan that is focused on three key promises we made to New Zealanders – to rebuild the economy, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Natural hydrogen resource should be free of Treaty claims entanglement
    Natural hydrogen could be a game-changing new source of energy for New Zealand but it is essential it is treated as a critical development that benefits all New Zealanders, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones is seeking to give regulatory certainty for those keen to develop natural, or geological, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Government responds to unsustainable net migration
    ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand on stage at global Space Symposium
    Space Minister Judith Collins will speak at the Space Symposium in the United States next week, promoting New Zealand’s rapidly growing place in the sector as we work to rebuild the economy. “As one of the largest global space events, attended by more than 10,000 business and government representatives from ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-04-16T11:20:21+00:00