Kevin Trenberth

I seem to be getting an email a week from skeptics saying where’s the warming gone. I know the warming is on the decadal scale, but it would be nice to wear their smug grins away.

Phil Jones

In any case, if the sulfate hypothesis is right, then your prediction of warming might end up being wrong. I think we have been too readily explaining the slow changes over past decade as a result of variabilitythat explanation is wearing thin. I would just suggest, as a backup to your prediction, that you also do some checking on the sulfate issue, just so you might have a quantified explanation in case the prediction is wrong. Otherwise, the Skeptics will be all over usthe world is really cooling, the models are no good, etc. And all this just as the US is about ready to get serious on the issue.

Mike MacCracken

Ironically, the E1-IMAGE scenario runs, although much cooler in the long term of course, are considerably warmer than A1B-AR4 for several decades! Also relevant to your statement A1B-AR4 runs show potential for a distinct lack of warming in the early 21st C, which I’m sure skeptics would love to see replicated in the real world (See the attached plot for illustration but please don’t circulate this any further as these are results in progress, not yet shared with other ENSEMBLES partners let alone published).

Tim Johns

The key thing is making sure the series are vertically aligned in a reasonable way. I had been using the entire 20th century, but in the case of Keith’s, we need to align the first half of the 20th century w/ the corresponding mean values of the other series, due to the late 20th century decline. So, if we show Keith’s series in this plot, we have to comment that “something else’ is responsible for the discrepancies in this case. Otherwise, the skeptics have an field day casting doubt on our ability to understand the factors that influence these estimates and, thus, can undermine faith in the paleoestimates.

Michael E. Mann <mann@multiproxy.evsc.virginia.edu

Hi Mick,

It was good to see you again yesterday if briefly. One particular
thing you said and we agreed was about the IPCC reports and
the broader climate negotiations were working to the globalisation
agenda driven by organisations like the WTO. So my first question
is do you have anything written or published, or know of anything
particularly on this subject, which talks about this in more detail?

My second question is that I am invovled in a working group
organising a climate justice summit in the Hague and I wondered if
you had any contacts, ngos or individuals, with whom you have
worked especially from the small island States or similar areas,
who could be invited as a voice either to help on the working group
and/or to invite to speak?

All the best,

Paul

This means that forest owners – who will (like everyone else) get a free allocation to help them meet the inevitable obligation when they cut their trees down – have effectively been given a legislated monopoly on carbon laundering, able to sell their forest allocation overseas at high prices while replacing it with non-forest credit bought at the capped price for instant arbitrage profits.

But there’s another problem: the government still allows “banking” during the transitional period. Carbon credits don’t expire, and if the price rises, polluters can simply sit on their free allocation, meet their obligation by buying from the government for $25 / ton, and sell up when the price cap and export controls are removed in a few year’s time.

What National have just gone into urgency to pass has got to be the worst policy submitted to parliament since Muldoons time.

They want a fart tax? Fine, invent a time machine and go back 6 years and support one.

Otherwise, get over it and get on with it. I have to live with the $90,000 plus debt Nick Smith is going to leave me with (until his scheme is replaced by a betterand more enduring solution).

rob

Now, where did I leave that EMP bomb?

L

Does Turing compliance count as being sentient?

You should see the stuff that winds up in spam….

Right???

L