web analytics
The Standard

NRT: So much for the surplus

Written By: - Date published: 1:21 pm, July 8th, 2014 - 40 comments
Categories: debt / deficit, Economy, jobs, treasury, wages - Tags: ,

Reposted from No Right Turn.

Back in May, National promised to balance the books next year. Now it looks like that won’t be happening:

The Budget deficit was tracking $332 million worse than forecast for the 11 months to the end of May, throwing doubt on the forecast 2014/15 Budget surplus.

Treasury said the budget deficit excluding gains and losses (Obegal) was $1.1 billion against $770m forecast in the May 15 Budget update, due to softer than expected GST and corporate tax returns.

Officials said it was too early to know the likely impact of these results “on the current and future financial years as both downside and upside risks exist “.

The Government has been promising to deliver a Budget surplus, and the May Budget forecast a surplus for the 2014-15 year of $372 million, well ahead of the paper-thin $86m tipped in December.

So, I guess we can expect some arbitrary cuts so National can claim its victory. What’ll it be? School maintenance? Maybe they’ll kick the poor some more. But the one thing they won’t be doing is fixing the revenue side of the budget by increasing taxes on the rich – that apparently is unthinkable.

40 comments on “NRT: So much for the surplus”

  1. dv 1

    But the one thing they won’t be doing is fixing the revenue side of the budget by increasing taxes on the rich – that apparently is unthinkable.

    Nope raise GST to 20%

  2. mickysavage 2

    And business confidence, although still high, is falling.

    From Radio NZ (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/249220/business-confidence-falls):

    The Institute of Economic Research’s June quarterly survey of business opinion found a net 33 percent of firms expect economic conditions to improve, compared with a net 52 percent in the previous period.
    Trading activity, which the Institute said closely mirrors economic growth, eased back, and indicates annual economic growth of 2.8 percent.
    Activity overall remains robust, but momentum has eased in some rural regions and Auckland, which the Institute attributes to the impact of falling dairy prices on rural incomes, and slowing growth in Auckland’s housing market.

    Although it is still relatively healthy there is nothing more likely to hit a government’s popularity than a drop in confidence.

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      Business people are optimists, inherently. The key thing however is that even at what has been seen as solid levels of business optimism – it’s not that solid: in most parts of the country it has not flowed into additional capital investment and increasing headcount. More of a “wait and see” attitude.

  3. Jrobin 3

    Good news, also house prices are slumping in Auckland which though actually a good thing, will demoralise those who bought at the top of the cycle. Interest rate rises, power price rises, no surplus, falling dairy prices. Not really a rock star at all.

    • Lanthanide 3.1

      It was a Beiber-economy, not a Jagger-economy.

    • Tracey 3.2

      slumping is a bit of an overstatement

      from QV

      The Auckland market has increased 12.3% year on year and values are up 31.4% since 2007.  When adjusted for inflation values are up 10.6% over the past year and are 12.8% above the 2007 peak.

       
      Andrea Rush QV National Spokesperson said, “The nationwide index is still increasing but the picture around the country is mixed.”

      “Residential property values in Auckland and Christchurch are still increasing at a similar rate to what they were in June last year.”

      “While values in Wellington and Dunedin are showing a downward trend this month, as are a number of other provincial centres around the country.”

      “Sales volumes and home loan approvals (new and existing) are also down considerably at between 15-20% less than at this time last year.”  

       

      Auckland

      The Auckland region as a whole has increased 2.7% over the past three months and 12.3% year on year.  Manukau East is up the most with values increasing 4.3% over the past three months. Followed by the North Shore – North Harbour where values have risen 4.2%. While in Waitakere City values rose 2.3% over the same period.

      QV Valuer Bruce Wiggins said, “We are seeing a gradual reduction in the rate of growth in property values in some areas and more sellers opting to put on an asking price or sell by negotiation.

      “However, sale by auction remains popular in high value areas or where there are special characteristics.”

      “The gradual reduction in growth  is particularly noticeable in ‘hot spots’ such as Waitakere, which was up more than 17% year on year a few months ago and is now showing a 15.2% increase year on year and Papakura, where values are also flattening off.”

      “Land-banking remains popular in North-West Auckland where there are a number of new subdivisions currently being undertaken and more are planned.”

      “Within Flat Bush there appears to be a flattening of prices in recent times. This may be due to a number of builders/developers who bought land on terms at around the same time completing construction with the new builds appearing on the market at similar times.  This can create an over-supply and may affect values somewhat there.”

      • ropata 3.2.1

        yes it’s a two-tier economy. property owners / investors/ developers vs everyone else.
        it is indicated by year on year price increases exceeding the median wage
        it is a bubble, sustained by speculators and wealthy immigrants
        and it’s forcing the poor/young out of the market

        Australian houses are more affordable(!), because they have effective unions, capital gains tax and controls on foreign ownership

      • vto 3.2.2

        Tracey, the number to watch is sales numbers, not prices.

        The things you quote above refer optimistically to various price and value increases but the giveaway sentence, just the one, is this one …

        “Sales volumes and home loan approvals (new and existing) are also down considerably at between 15-20% less than at this time last year.”

        Sales volume is the one to watch.

        • mickysavage 3.2.2.1

          Yep volume decrease precedes price decrease. It is the first sign the bubble may be popping.

  4. Paul 4

    well, ole’ Johnny’s confident, as reported by his slavish propaganda machine aka. the NZ press…..http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10243719/Key-confident-about-surplus

    • Paul 4.1

      Just imagine what the headline would have been had Labour or Green been in power….

    • Hanswurst 4.2

      Yes, why do all journalists seem to report the reality according to John Key? How about a headline along the lines of “Key a Complete Stupid Dick – Successful Businessman”? I mean, surely they don’t have to look too hard to find some businessman somewhere who thinks our PM’s an embarrassment, just like they found some random mother of two the other day who was lukewarm on Labour’s education policy. They could even provide a bit of balance a couple of lines from the bottom of the article with a single sentence pointing out that said businessman supports all of Key’s policies, and that his being a dick is mainly on account of not being able to speak properly, and making naff jokes that he practises for hours in front of the mirror, but that even your least favourite uncle would be ashamed of.

  5. Sable 5

    Yes well that’s what happens when NZ journalists take the opinion of HSBC financial analysts and report it as unquestionable “fact”. The NZ economy is stuffed and its getting worse whilst Australia seems to be getting better (assuming Abbott doesn’t stuff it up which is very likely).

  6. bad12 6

    All part of the ‘swindle’ is how i see it,

    The back in black hype of English’s 2014 budget was just that ‘Hype’ with a capital H and a large serving of complicity from the media,

    When you look back a bit, 2013, you see stories of public debt ‘peaking’ in years 2016/17,

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/…/public-debt-climbs-by-27m-a-day

    That suggests that English knew the borrowing would continue way past the ”books back in black” bullshit of this years budget,

    Even the Herald says the same in this years budget coverage, in the one breath its ”the balanced budget”, turn the face the other way, and a couple of paragraphs later we have the same ”debt will peak in years 2016/17”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3...

    It’s a swindle, one of those card tricks done right in front of everyone’s face, the headline yells ”books back in surplus” the rest either doesn’t sink in or the people don’t bother to read the whole story…

    • One Anonymous Bloke 6.1

      A swindle? It’s a Sex Pistols economy.

      • bad12 6.1.1

        i am assuming that English and Slippery are gambling lots on a third term, the fiscal gap would be plugged with a drip feed from the asset sales cash and an empty bank account dripping in red ink will be the legacy…

  7. ropata 7

    the economy is great if you happen to be a hollywood mogul, or chinese/russion oligarch, or multinational corporation looking for a small country to buy

  8. Jepenseque 8

    Gee fair bit of negativity here! You get the sense those on the left would love a good bit of failure for little old NZ! Fact is that tax reciepts are notoriously volatile, there are swings and roundabouts but the trend is clear. Tax up 4.6% year on year. Well done all the workers and business owners out there. Cheers

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1

      Nine years of surpluses means the left has the ground from which to criticise, not to mention the economic competence and lowest unemployment rate in NZ history. Cheers.

    • Tracey 8.2

      gee you havent known negativity until you were online during year after year of labour surpluses, the right could still see the sky falling

  9. Tamaki 9

    Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.

  10. Deemac 10

    Maybe rock star economy because there are a few very rich people at the top while the masses can only watch?

  11. dave 11

    Log and milk powder prices tumbling interest rate on the rise ,housing bubble yes this rock star is past it used by date i wonder if there will be a credit down grade you would have to think so

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Broadband failure sucks up more cash
    The Commerce Committee has blocked an inquiry into the $300 million rural broadband initiative (RBI) despite mounting evidence it’s a massive policy failure and waste of money, says Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran. “The Government is about to spend an… ...
    15 hours ago
  • TISA – Another secret trade deal you may never have heard of
      This post first appeared on The Daily Blog You’ve probably heard of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) by now and the widespread concerns around it but what about the Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) also being currently negotiated by… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    21 hours ago
  • Health chickens coming home to roost as Dunedin loses right to train doctor...
    News today that Dunedin Hospital has lost orthopaedic training accreditation is a major blow and proves the Government’s prevarication is having devastating consequences, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “Losing orthopaedic advanced training is serious. There is a knock on… ...
    2 days ago
  • $74,000 quarterly rise shows crisis out of control
    New figures out today showing Auckland house prices have spiked by a massive $74,000 in the past quarter is further evidence the city’s housing crisis has spiralled out of control, Labour’s “In spite of constant announcements and photo opportunities from… ...
    2 days ago
  • Democracy for Nauru now
    Murray McCully must send the strongest possible message to the Nauruan Government that New Zealand does not condone its actions given the disturbing developments there, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “Right now we are seeing Nauru stripped of… ...
    2 days ago
  • Recovery needs more than a rebrand
    Today’s announcement of new governance arrangements for Canterbury seems to be nothing more than a fresh coat of paint on the same old approach, says Labour’s Canterbury Earthquake Recovery spokesperson Ruth Dyson. “The Canterbury Recovery has been too slow, with… ...
    2 days ago
  • Copper decision a victory for status quo, not Kiwi households
    New Zealanders hoping for cheaper copper broadband will be disappointed by the Commerce Commission’s latest decision in the long running saga to determine the price of copper, Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran says. “In an apparent attempt to appease everyone,… ...
    2 days ago
  • It’s time for hard decisions in the Bay
     The Ruataniwha dam project is turning into a huge white elephant as the economics fail to stack up, says Labour’s Water spokesperson Meka Whaitiri.  “Ruataniwha simply doesn’t make economic sense when you look at other major irrigation schemes around the… ...
    2 days ago
  • More testing won’t lift student achievement
    Hekia Parata’s latest plan to subject school students to even more testing and assessment won’t do anything to lift the educational achievement of the kids who are struggling, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “New Zealand school students are already… ...
    2 days ago
  • Bad week for NZ economy gets worse
    The bad news for the New Zealand economy got worse this morning with the 8th successive drop in dairy prices at this morning’s global dairy auction, again exposing the absence of any Plan B from the National Government, Labour’s Finance… ...
    2 days ago
  • System failing to protect women and children from family violence
    Last week we called for mandatory child safety investigations in domestic violence cases. This came after the coronial inquiry into the deaths of Bradley and Ellen Livingstone and the verdict in the trial of the west Auckland boys charged with… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 days ago
  • Backers banking on social bonds cash?
    The Government is refusing to say what the $29 million it has set aside for its controversial social bonds programme is for, raising suspicions it is an upfront payment to the project backers, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. A… ...
    3 days ago
  • Plastic Free July
    Today is the start of Plastic Free July. Since its inception in Perth, Western Australia four years ago, more and more people and organisations from around the world have joined the call to refuse single use plastic products. Nearly all… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    3 days ago
  • State house sell off Bill gives extraordinary powers
    The Government is about to give Ministers extraordinary powers to take direct personal control of selling state houses, exempting Ministers from normal legal requirements and leaving the sale process wide open for corruption, Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. The… ...
    3 days ago
  • Cash for charter schools, mould for state schools
    At a time when state schools are struggling in old, cold, mouldy buildings and can barely make ends meet, the National Government is shovelling cash at charter schools which aren’t even spending the funding on kids’ education, Labour’s Education spokesperson… ...
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand needs a wise response to climate change
    Today in Parliament I got to hear from a group of New Zealanders who are concerned for the future of our country. Called Wise Response, the group is a broad coalition of academics, engineers, lawyers, artists, sportspeople and others who… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    3 days ago
  • No alternative as waste scheme trashed
    Nick Smith must explain how he is going to prevent contamination of New Zealand’s ground and water with liquid and hazardous waste after scrapping the only monitoring scheme and offering no replacement, says Labour’s Environment Spokesperson Megan Woods. “From today,… ...
    3 days ago
  • Flawed system rates death traps as safe
    ACC Minister Nikki Kaye needs to come clean about what really lies behind the reclassification of 18 vehicles in her new motor vehicle registration system introduced today, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Sue Moroney says. "New Zealanders deserve the truth about the… ...
    3 days ago
  • Tiwai Smelter and 800 workers left in limbo
     Workers at Tiwai smelter and the people of Southland have once again been left in limbo over their future in the ongoing debacle over whether the plant stays open, says Labour’s Leader Andrew Little.  “It’s not good enough that after two years of… ...
    3 days ago
  • New twist in state house sell-off saga
    The Government has opened the door to buyers of state houses simply being landlords and not required to provide social services, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. The Prime Minister said at his post-Cabinet press conference buyers would not “have… ...
    3 days ago
  • Government fees will hit charities hard
    National’s decision to ignore the concerns of charities will see the voluntary sector face hundreds of thousands of dollars in new costs if the Policing (Cost Recovery) Amendment Bill passes, says Labour's Community and Voluntary Sector spokesperson Poto Williams. “National’s… ...
    4 days ago
  • Four out of ten for Simon’s Bridges
    The Transport Authority’s decision to fund only four of the 10 bridges promised in National’s shameless Northland by-election bribe is a huge embarrassment for Transport Minister Simon Bridges, Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “After one by-election poll showed they… ...
    4 days ago
  • Falling consents adding to Auckland housing woes
    Falling numbers of building consents being issued in Auckland will add to the city’s housing shortfall and fuel skyrocketing house prices, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford “The Productivity Commission found there was a shortfall of around 32,000 houses by the… ...
    4 days ago
  • So Mr English, do you have a plan?
    DIpping confidence about jobs, wages and shrinking exports are highlighting the lack of a plan from the government to diversify the economy and build sustainable growth, Grant Robertson  Labour’s Finance Spokesperson said. " Data released over the last week… ...
    4 days ago
  • Serious risks to tenants and assets in sell-off
    Overseas evidence shows there are serious risks around the Government's plan to sell off state houses to social housing providers, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “In the Netherlands – where community housing providers supply the majority of social housing –… ...
    4 days ago
  • Land of milk and money
    Kiwi families are paying over the top prices for their milk and someone is creaming off big profits, says Labour’s Consumer Affairs spokesperson David Shearer. “In 2011 the Government told us high New Zealand milk prices were a natural result… ...
    6 days ago
  • MoBIE largesse doesn’t stop with TVs and hair-straighteners
    The number of MoBIE staff earning more than $150,000 has risen 23 per cent in just a year, Labour’s Economic Development Spokesperson David Clark says. Documents obtained from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment show there are now nearly… ...
    6 days ago
  • English wants to flog state houses to Aussies
    Bill English’s admission that he would sell hundreds of New Zealand’s state houses to the Australians is the latest lurch in the Government’s stumbling, half-baked housing policy, Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Bill English should face reality and admit his… ...
    7 days ago
  • Exports continue to fall as Government fails to diversify
    The Government quickly needs a plan to diversify our economy after new figures show that exports are continuing to fall due to the collapse in dairy exports, Labour's Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “Dairy exports fell 28 per cent compared… ...
    1 week ago
  • Government inaction leads to blurring of roles
    The Treasury wouldn’t have had to warn the Reserve Bank to stick to its core functions if the Government had taken prompt and substantial measures to rein in skyrocketing Auckland house prices, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The problems… ...
    1 week ago
  • Courthouse closures hitting regions
    The Government’s decision to shut down up to eight regional courthouses, some supposedly only temporarily for seismic reasons, looks unlikely to be reversed, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says.“The move has hit these regions hard, but appears to be a… ...
    1 week ago
  • A Victory for Te Tiriti o Waitangi
    This week my partner, who has a number of professions, was doing an archaeological assessment for a District Council. He showed me the new rules around archaeologists which require them to demonstrate “sufficient skill and competency in relation to Māori… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    1 week ago
  • Tough bar set for Ruataniwha dam
     Today’s final decision by the Tukituki Catchment Board of Inquiry is good news for the river and the environment, says Labour’s Water spokesperson Meka Whaitiri. “Setting a strict level of dissolved nitrogen in the catchment’s waters will ensure that the… ...
    1 week ago
  • Minister for Women and National missing the mark – part two
    The Minister for Women was in front of the select committee yesterday answering questions about her plans for women. Some useful context is that we used to have a Pay and Employment Equity Unit within the then Department of Labour… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • Lavish penthouse spend confirms culture of extravagance
    At the same time thousands of New Zealanders are being locked out of the property market, the Government is spending up on a lavish New York penthouse for its diplomats, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. News that taxpayers… ...
    1 week ago
  • Māori Television exodus cause for concern
    The shock departure of yet another leading journalist from the Native Affairs team raises further concern the Board and Chief Executive are dissatisfied with the team’s editorial content, says Labour’s Māori Development spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta. “Annabelle Lee is an experienced… ...
    1 week ago
  • Million-plus car owners to pay too much ACC
    More than a million car owners will pay higher ACC motor vehicle registration than necessary from July, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “During a select committee hearing this morning it was revealed that car owners would have been charged… ...
    1 week ago
  • Bill will restore democracy to local councils
    A new Labour Member’s Bill will restore democracy to local authorities and stop amalgamations being forced on councils. Napier MP Stuart Nash’s Local Government Act 2002 (Greater Local Democracy) Bill will be debated by Parliament after being pulled from the… ...
    1 week ago
  • Minister for Women again misses the mark – part one
    Yesterday I asked the Minister for Women about the government’s poor performance on it’s own target of appointing women to 45% of state board positions. I challenged why she’d put out a media release celebrating progress this year when the… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • Banks enter Dragon’s Den in pitch for Government’s mental health experi...
    Overseas banks and their preferred providers were asked to pitch their ideas for bankrolling the Government’s social bonds scheme to a Dragon’s Den-style panel, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. Dragon’s Den was a reality television series where prospective ‘entrepreneurs’… ...
    1 week ago
  • Global Mode bullying won’t stop people accessing content
    It’s disappointing that strong-arm tactics from powerful media companies have meant Global Mode will not get its day in court. Today a settlement was reached terminating the Global Mode service, developed in New Zealand by ByPass Network Services and used… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    1 week ago
  • More questions – why was the Former National Party President involved wit...
    Today in Parliament Murray  McCully said the reason Michelle Boag was involved in 2011 in the Saudi farm scandal was in her capacity as a member of the New Zealand Middle East Business Council. The problem with that answer is… ...
    1 week ago
  • Minister must explain Maori TV interference
    Te Ururoa Flavell must explain why he told Maori TV staff all complaints about the CEO must come to him – months before he became the Minister responsible for the broadcaster, Labour’s Broadcasting Spokesperson Clare Curran says. “Sources have told… ...
    1 week ago
  • KiwiSaver takes a hammering after the end of kick-start
    National seems hell bent on destroying New Zealand’s saving culture given today’s news that there has been a drop in new enrolments for KiwiSaver, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson.  “New enrolments for the ANZ Investments KiwiSaver scheme have plunged… ...
    1 week ago
  • Straight answers needed on CYF role
    The Government needs to explain the role that Child, Youth and Family plays in cases where there is evidence that family violence was flagged as a concern, Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Arden says. “The fact that CYF is refusing to… ...
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister confuses his political interests with NZ’s interest
    The Prime Minister’s statement in Parliament yesterday that a Minister who paid a facilitation payment to unlock a free trade agreement would retain his confidence is an abhorrent development in the Saudi sheep scandal, Opposition leader Andrew Little says.  ...
    1 week ago
  • #raisethequota
    Last Saturday was World Refugee Day. I was privileged to spend most of my day with the amazing refugee communities in Auckland. Their stories have been inspiring and reflect the ‘can-do’ Kiwi spirit, even though they come from all different… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Dairy conversions causing more pollution than ever, report shows
    The Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) released two reports on freshwater quality and management last Friday. The water quality report shows that dairy conversions are hurting water quality and says that despite great efforts with fencing and planting, large… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Employers want urgent action on health and safety
    Moves by National to water down health and safety reforms have been slammed by employers – the very group the Government claims is pushing for change, says Labour’s spokesperson for Labour Relations Iain Lees-Galloway. “The Employers and Manufacturers’ Association has… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour calls on all parties to end coat-tailing
    Labour MP Iain Lees-Galloway is encouraging all parties to support his Bill to end the coat-tailing provision when it is debated in Parliament this week.  “New Zealanders have sent MPs a clear message. An opinion poll found more than 70… ...
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere