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NRT: So much for the surplus

Written By: - Date published: 1:21 pm, July 8th, 2014 - 40 comments
Categories: debt / deficit, Economy, jobs, treasury, wages - Tags: ,

Reposted from No Right Turn.

Back in May, National promised to balance the books next year. Now it looks like that won’t be happening:

The Budget deficit was tracking $332 million worse than forecast for the 11 months to the end of May, throwing doubt on the forecast 2014/15 Budget surplus.

Treasury said the budget deficit excluding gains and losses (Obegal) was $1.1 billion against $770m forecast in the May 15 Budget update, due to softer than expected GST and corporate tax returns.

Officials said it was too early to know the likely impact of these results “on the current and future financial years as both downside and upside risks exist “.

The Government has been promising to deliver a Budget surplus, and the May Budget forecast a surplus for the 2014-15 year of $372 million, well ahead of the paper-thin $86m tipped in December.

So, I guess we can expect some arbitrary cuts so National can claim its victory. What’ll it be? School maintenance? Maybe they’ll kick the poor some more. But the one thing they won’t be doing is fixing the revenue side of the budget by increasing taxes on the rich – that apparently is unthinkable.

40 comments on “NRT: So much for the surplus”

  1. dv 1

    But the one thing they won’t be doing is fixing the revenue side of the budget by increasing taxes on the rich – that apparently is unthinkable.

    Nope raise GST to 20%

  2. mickysavage 2

    And business confidence, although still high, is falling.

    From Radio NZ (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/249220/business-confidence-falls):

    The Institute of Economic Research’s June quarterly survey of business opinion found a net 33 percent of firms expect economic conditions to improve, compared with a net 52 percent in the previous period.
    Trading activity, which the Institute said closely mirrors economic growth, eased back, and indicates annual economic growth of 2.8 percent.
    Activity overall remains robust, but momentum has eased in some rural regions and Auckland, which the Institute attributes to the impact of falling dairy prices on rural incomes, and slowing growth in Auckland’s housing market.

    Although it is still relatively healthy there is nothing more likely to hit a government’s popularity than a drop in confidence.

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      Business people are optimists, inherently. The key thing however is that even at what has been seen as solid levels of business optimism – it’s not that solid: in most parts of the country it has not flowed into additional capital investment and increasing headcount. More of a “wait and see” attitude.

  3. Jrobin 3

    Good news, also house prices are slumping in Auckland which though actually a good thing, will demoralise those who bought at the top of the cycle. Interest rate rises, power price rises, no surplus, falling dairy prices. Not really a rock star at all.

    • Lanthanide 3.1

      It was a Beiber-economy, not a Jagger-economy.

    • Tracey 3.2

      slumping is a bit of an overstatement

      from QV

      The Auckland market has increased 12.3% year on year and values are up 31.4% since 2007.  When adjusted for inflation values are up 10.6% over the past year and are 12.8% above the 2007 peak.

       
      Andrea Rush QV National Spokesperson said, “The nationwide index is still increasing but the picture around the country is mixed.”

      “Residential property values in Auckland and Christchurch are still increasing at a similar rate to what they were in June last year.”

      “While values in Wellington and Dunedin are showing a downward trend this month, as are a number of other provincial centres around the country.”

      “Sales volumes and home loan approvals (new and existing) are also down considerably at between 15-20% less than at this time last year.”  

       

      Auckland

      The Auckland region as a whole has increased 2.7% over the past three months and 12.3% year on year.  Manukau East is up the most with values increasing 4.3% over the past three months. Followed by the North Shore – North Harbour where values have risen 4.2%. While in Waitakere City values rose 2.3% over the same period.

      QV Valuer Bruce Wiggins said, “We are seeing a gradual reduction in the rate of growth in property values in some areas and more sellers opting to put on an asking price or sell by negotiation.

      “However, sale by auction remains popular in high value areas or where there are special characteristics.”

      “The gradual reduction in growth  is particularly noticeable in ‘hot spots’ such as Waitakere, which was up more than 17% year on year a few months ago and is now showing a 15.2% increase year on year and Papakura, where values are also flattening off.”

      “Land-banking remains popular in North-West Auckland where there are a number of new subdivisions currently being undertaken and more are planned.”

      “Within Flat Bush there appears to be a flattening of prices in recent times. This may be due to a number of builders/developers who bought land on terms at around the same time completing construction with the new builds appearing on the market at similar times.  This can create an over-supply and may affect values somewhat there.”

      • ropata 3.2.1

        yes it’s a two-tier economy. property owners / investors/ developers vs everyone else.
        it is indicated by year on year price increases exceeding the median wage
        it is a bubble, sustained by speculators and wealthy immigrants
        and it’s forcing the poor/young out of the market

        Australian houses are more affordable(!), because they have effective unions, capital gains tax and controls on foreign ownership

      • vto 3.2.2

        Tracey, the number to watch is sales numbers, not prices.

        The things you quote above refer optimistically to various price and value increases but the giveaway sentence, just the one, is this one …

        “Sales volumes and home loan approvals (new and existing) are also down considerably at between 15-20% less than at this time last year.”

        Sales volume is the one to watch.

        • mickysavage 3.2.2.1

          Yep volume decrease precedes price decrease. It is the first sign the bubble may be popping.

  4. Paul 4

    well, ole’ Johnny’s confident, as reported by his slavish propaganda machine aka. the NZ press…..http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10243719/Key-confident-about-surplus

    • Paul 4.1

      Just imagine what the headline would have been had Labour or Green been in power….

    • Hanswurst 4.2

      Yes, why do all journalists seem to report the reality according to John Key? How about a headline along the lines of “Key a Complete Stupid Dick – Successful Businessman”? I mean, surely they don’t have to look too hard to find some businessman somewhere who thinks our PM’s an embarrassment, just like they found some random mother of two the other day who was lukewarm on Labour’s education policy. They could even provide a bit of balance a couple of lines from the bottom of the article with a single sentence pointing out that said businessman supports all of Key’s policies, and that his being a dick is mainly on account of not being able to speak properly, and making naff jokes that he practises for hours in front of the mirror, but that even your least favourite uncle would be ashamed of.

  5. Sable 5

    Yes well that’s what happens when NZ journalists take the opinion of HSBC financial analysts and report it as unquestionable “fact”. The NZ economy is stuffed and its getting worse whilst Australia seems to be getting better (assuming Abbott doesn’t stuff it up which is very likely).

  6. bad12 6

    All part of the ‘swindle’ is how i see it,

    The back in black hype of English’s 2014 budget was just that ‘Hype’ with a capital H and a large serving of complicity from the media,

    When you look back a bit, 2013, you see stories of public debt ‘peaking’ in years 2016/17,

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/…/public-debt-climbs-by-27m-a-day

    That suggests that English knew the borrowing would continue way past the ”books back in black” bullshit of this years budget,

    Even the Herald says the same in this years budget coverage, in the one breath its ”the balanced budget”, turn the face the other way, and a couple of paragraphs later we have the same ”debt will peak in years 2016/17”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3...

    It’s a swindle, one of those card tricks done right in front of everyone’s face, the headline yells ”books back in surplus” the rest either doesn’t sink in or the people don’t bother to read the whole story…

    • One Anonymous Bloke 6.1

      A swindle? It’s a Sex Pistols economy.

      • bad12 6.1.1

        i am assuming that English and Slippery are gambling lots on a third term, the fiscal gap would be plugged with a drip feed from the asset sales cash and an empty bank account dripping in red ink will be the legacy…

  7. ropata 7

    the economy is great if you happen to be a hollywood mogul, or chinese/russion oligarch, or multinational corporation looking for a small country to buy

  8. Jepenseque 8

    Gee fair bit of negativity here! You get the sense those on the left would love a good bit of failure for little old NZ! Fact is that tax reciepts are notoriously volatile, there are swings and roundabouts but the trend is clear. Tax up 4.6% year on year. Well done all the workers and business owners out there. Cheers

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1

      Nine years of surpluses means the left has the ground from which to criticise, not to mention the economic competence and lowest unemployment rate in NZ history. Cheers.

    • Tracey 8.2

      gee you havent known negativity until you were online during year after year of labour surpluses, the right could still see the sky falling

  9. Tamaki 9

    Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.

  10. Deemac 10

    Maybe rock star economy because there are a few very rich people at the top while the masses can only watch?

  11. dave 11

    Log and milk powder prices tumbling interest rate on the rise ,housing bubble yes this rock star is past it used by date i wonder if there will be a credit down grade you would have to think so

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    The news that two Serco inmates have been arrested for helping to run a methamphetamine ring from prison should be the final straw and see their contract cancelled, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “National has stood by Serco despite… ...
    4 days ago
  • Ministers failing women and their own targets
    New figures showing just five Ministers have met the Government’s own reduced targets for appointing women to state sector boards is evidence National is failing Kiwi women, Labour’s Women’s Affairs spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “The Ministry for Women’s 2015 Gender… ...
    4 days ago
  • Charges up for some as funding up for grabs
    A proposal being considered by the Government would see some people having to pay more for health care and district health boards forced to fight amongst themselves to fund regional health services, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says “Information leaked… ...
    4 days ago
  • Stop experimenting on kids
    The trouble with the Charter school model is that it is a publicly funded experiment on children. The National Government has consistently put its desire to open charter schools ahead of the safety of the children in them, ignoring repeated… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    5 days ago
  • Bank puts the squeeze on mid Canterbury farmers
    News that an unnamed bank in Ashburton has put a receiver on notice over financially vulnerable farmers will send a chill through rural New Zealand, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The Government needs to work with  New Zealand’s banks… ...
    5 days ago
  • Key is trading away New Zealand land and homes
    John Key yesterday admitted what National dishonestly refused to confirm in Parliament last week – he is trading away New Zealand’s right to control who buys our homes and land, says Opposition leader Andrew Little. “The Prime Minister must now… ...
    5 days ago
  • Razor gang takes scalpel to health
    Plans by the Government to take a scalpel to democratically elected health boards are deceitful and underhand, coming just months after an election during which they were never signalled, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says “Leaked documents reveals a radical… ...
    5 days ago
  • Spin lines show a department in chaos
    Corrections Spin Doctors sending their place holder lines to journalists instead of responding to serious allegations shows the scale of chaos at the department over the Serco scandal, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “As more and more serious allegations… ...
    7 days ago
  • Court ruling shows law should never have been passed
    A High Court ruling that a law banning prisoners from voting is inconsistent with a properly functioning democracy should be a wake-up call for the Government, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. In an unprecedented ruling Justice Paul Heath has… ...
    1 week ago
  • Judicial Review Gamble Pays Off for Problem Gambling Foundation
    Congratulations are due to the Problem Gambling Foundation (PGFNZ) who have won their legal case around how the Ministry of Health decided to award their contracts for problem gambling services to another service provider. Congratulations are due not just for… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Environmental Protection Agency appoints GE advocate as new CEO
    This week, the Environmental Protection Authority Amendment Bill passed its first reading in Parliament. The Bill puts protection of the environment into the core purpose of the Environmental Protection Authority. This month, Dr Allan Freeth, the former Chief Executive of… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    1 week ago
  • Charanpreet Dhaliwal death demands genuine health and safety reform
    The killing of a security guard on his first night on the job is exactly the kind of incident that National’s watered-down health and safety bill won’t prevent, says Te Atatu MP Phil Twyford. The coronial inquest into 22-year-old Charanpreet… ...
    1 week ago
  • Arbitrary sanctions hit children hardest
    Increasing numbers of single parents are being penalised under a regime that is overly focussed on sanctions rather than getting more people into work, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “Figures, obtained through Parliamentary questions show 3000 more sanctions,… ...
    1 week ago
  • Hekia just won’t face the facts
    Hekia Parata’s decision to keep troubled Whangaruru Charter school open despite being presented with a catalogue of failure defies belief, goes against official advice and breaks a Government promise to close these schools if they were failing, says Labour’s Education… ...
    1 week ago
  • No more silent witnesses
    Yesterday I attended the launch of a new initiative developed by and for Asian, Middle eastern and African youth to support young people to name and get support if there is domestic violence at home. The impact on children of… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • Single Use Plastic Bags campaign – Some wins and some green-washing
    As we near the end of Plastic Free July I’m nearing the conclusion of my Say No To Plastic Bag tour when I will have completed all 30 of my public meetings. The campaign was designed to work with community… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Single Use Plastic Bags campaign – Some wins and some green-washing
    As we near the end of Plastic Free July I’m nearing the conclusion of my Say No To Plastic Bag tour when I will have completed all 30 of my public meetings. The campaign was designed to work with community… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Minister must take responsibility for problem gambling debacle
    The Government’s handling of the Problem Gambling Foundation’s axing in a cost-cutting exercise has been ham-fisted and harmful to some of the most vulnerable people in society, Associate Health Labour spokesperson David Clark says.“Today’s court ruling overturning the axing of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour will not support TPP if it undermines NZ sovereignty
    The Labour Party will not support the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement unless key protections for New Zealanders are met, Opposition leader Andrew Little says.“Labour supports free trade. However, we will not support a TPP agreement that undermines New Zealand’s sovereignty. ...
    1 week ago
  • Coleman can’t ignore latest warnings
    Resident doctors have advised that a severe staffing shortage at North Shore Hospital is putting patients’ lives at risk, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “They say a mismatch between staffing levels and patient workloads at North Shore has… ...
    1 week ago
  • ACC must remove barriers to appeals
    The Government must prioritise removing barriers to justice for ACC claimants following a damning report by Acclaim Otago, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “ACC Minister Nikki Kaye must urgently scrap her flawed plan to remove claimant’s right to redress… ...
    1 week ago
  • Six months’ paid parental leave back on the agenda
    Six months’ paid parental leave is back on the agenda and a step closer to reality for Kiwi parents after Labour’s new Member’s Bill was pulled from today’s ballot, the Bill’s sponsor and Labour MP Sue Moroney says. “My Bill… ...
    1 week ago
  • Sole parents at risk of having no income
    New requirements for sole parents to undertake a reapplication process after a year is likely to mean a large number will face benefit cancellations, but not because they have obtained work, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “Increasing numbers… ...
    1 week ago
  • Juking the Welfare Stats Again
    Last week the government’s major initiative to combat child poverty (a paltry $25 increase) was exposed for what it is, a lie. The Government, through the Budget this year, claims to be engaging in the child poverty debate, but instead,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • OCR rate cut a result of flagging economy
    The Reserve Bank's decision to cut the Official Cash Rate to 3 per cent shows there is no encore for the so-called 'rock star' economy, says Labour's Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson.   "Today's interest rate cut comes off the back… ...
    1 week ago
  • Reboot to an innovation economy, an Internet economy and a clean economy
    In my short 33 years on this planet we’ve seen phenomenal technological, economic and social change, and it’s realistic to expect the next 33 will see even more, even faster change. You can see it in the non-descript warehouse near… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    1 week ago
  • Bill that puts the environment into the EPA passes first hurdle
    A Bill that puts the environment squarely into legislation governing the Environmental Protection Authority passed its first reading today, says Meka Whaitiri.  “I introduced this member’s bill as the current law doesn’t actually make protecting the environment a goal of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Key’s KiwiSaver deception exposed
    KiwiSaver statistics released today expose John Key's claim that the cutting of the kickstart payment "will not make a blind bit of difference to the number of people who join KiwiSaver” to be duplicitous, says Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson.  “Official… ...
    1 week ago
  • Minimum Wage Amendment Bill to protect contractors
    All New Zealanders should be treated fairly at work. Currently, the law allows non-employment relationships to be used to get around the minimum wage. This is unfair, says Labour MP David Parker. “The Minimum Wage (Contractor Remuneration) Amendment Bill, a… ...
    1 week ago
  • Bill raises bar to protect Kiwi farmland
    The Government’s rubber-stamping of every one of the nearly 400 applications from overseas investors to buy New Zealand farm land over the last three years proves tougher laws are needed, Labour MP Phil Goff says. “In the last term of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Costly flag referendum should be dumped
    John Key must ditch the flag referendum before any more taxpayer money is wasted, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “Millions of dollars could be saved if the Prime Minister called a halt to this hugely expensive, and highly unpopular, vanity… ...
    1 week ago
  • Nats letting Serco off scot free
    Government members have prevented Parliament’s Law and Order select committee from getting answers out of a senior Serco director about the fight clubs being run at Mt Eden prisons, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “At today’s Law and Order… ...
    1 week ago
  • Charter school experiment turns into shambles
    The National Government’s charter school experiment has descended into chaos and it’s time for Hekia Parata to stop trying to cover up the full extent of the problems, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The Education Minister must release all… ...
    1 week ago

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