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Of polls and elections

Written By: - Date published: 11:07 am, May 26th, 2014 - 116 comments
Categories: david cunliffe, election 2014, john key, labour, national - Tags: ,

Last night’s dual Colmar Brunton Reid Research poll releases have some on the right suggesting that the election is a formality and all that National needs to do to win is turn up. They should rethink their optimism.  Because the election is incredibly close and anything can happen.

Before anyone accuses me of blind optimism I note that this is also the view of John Key.  They should also think about the following:

  1.  I am convinced there is an inbuilt right bias in polls.  There were too many “National will rule alone” poll results before the last election which did not reconcile with the actual result.  Rob Salmond and Danyl McLaughlan have analysed the situation for a while with more expertise than I have.  I will state with some confidence that National will poll under 50% at the next election.
  2.  The poll results include the budget week bounce that Governments generally enjoy.  Last year the Colmar Brunton poll for the same period showed an impressive 6% bounce in support for the Government.  Budget week should be the Government’s week.  And National’s attempt to make itself look like Labour has obviously had a beneficial effect on its support.  The Colmar Brunton poll data was collected from May 17 to 21, immediately after the budget had been delivered and away from the time of the Judith Collins troubles.  The Reid Research poll from last year did not show the same bounce but my impression of Reid Research polls are that they are erratic.

Having said this the biggest threat for Labour for the election is the sense of optimism there is concerning the economy.  The right track wrong track trend is suggesting that overall people are happy with the way the economy is going.  They have reason to be happy in that there is growth and unemployment is declining albeit slowly.  Of course this recovery is built on a foundation of sand and is dependent on the need to rebuild our second largest city and large scale borrowing only possible because Helen Clark and Michael Cullen had effectively paid off the Crown’s debt in 2008.

National’s approach to economic management is a temporary solution only.  One day the country will have to wake up and start paying the debt back.

Voters should not confuse borrow and spend with a sound economic policy.  Currently sufficient of them are prepared to give National an economic credibility it frankly does not deserve.

And David Cunliffe has acknowledged that he needs to convey to the population what sort of person he is.  He has worked hard on the policy aspect of the job but people do need to have a sense of who he is if they are going to vote for him.  Soft media will be vital.  John Campbell’s recent visit to David’s home is the sort of thing he will need more of.

We now are 117 days from the next election.  Decent recent setbacks the polls are in a better position for the left than they were three years ago.  My sense is that this election will go down to the wire.

116 comments on “Of polls and elections”

  1. George 1

    Yeah, but Labour doesn’t have a convincing way to explain the twenty point gap.

    They were offered one.

    • Clemgeopin 1.1

      It is no longer a FPP system of election or Government! It is MMP. Duh! You got to look at it in terms of the right block and the left block

    • Paul 1.2

      There isn’t a 20 percent gap.

      • George 1.2.1

        There is a twenty point gap.

        If Labour can’t communicate to the average voter how they’re going to form the next government.

        The Greens offered them a way to do that (far short of a formal coalition – a non-aggression pact). It’s harder to do that without this solid connection.

        • poem 1.2.1.1

          There isn’t a twenty point gap. Labour has made their position quite clear, that the Greens will, no doubt, be part of a labour led government. That’s enough. Let the voters have their say first. No deals should be done before then. National and NZ First are also refusing to be drawn om coalition deals.

  2. Enough is Enough 2

    Micky – Not many on the right are suggesting this is a formality. It you have followed the rhetoric of Key and English in the past fortnight to their support base, the key message is lets not complacent.

    They are firing up their war machine now with a bucket load of resources. The PR spin and Crosby Textor influenced marketing will hit us hard soon.

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      The Right aren’t suggesting this is a formality because it’s not, their internal polling says so, and these guys can certainly count. HOWEVER, the Right do definitely think they could still pull this one out of the fire and win. We’ll see. (They will definitely need Winston’s help).

      • lprent 2.1.1

        That Winston support is really going to really really gut that large faction of the National party and support base that they managed to demonise NZFirst to over the last decade or two.

        My sadistic streak almost wishes that it would happen. It’d be like a moving trainwreck for both National and NZ First.

        • The Real Matthew 2.1.1.1

          You’re presuming Winston gets over the 5% threshold.

          Like the overall result I’m expecting this to be much closer than expected.

          • Tracey 2.1.1.1.1

            isnt there likely to be some in the middle who wontvote labour but want national gone, thats winston territory… 5% is not even all the undecided in the latest poll.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Winston will clear 5% easy. The biggest problem with NZF is though is that it remains the Winston Peters party. Without him, they will poll at the margin of error.

              • Tracey

                part of me wishes the nats would go into coalition with nzf, watch the shitfight and attend the fresh election one year later…

                • Colonial Viper

                  If there was a cinema or computer simulation version I’d be all for it, unfortunately putting the entire nation through it for real is just too cruel…

                • Tracey

                  yup

                  • The Real Matthew

                    CV & Tracey I’m not so convinced on Winston this time around.

                    The conventional wisdom with Winston is not to write him off but I feel he has lost some of his majic. His claims under parliamentary priviledge get more and more fanciful and he is scoring less hits than in previous terms.

                    I agree there is a constituency there for the Winston vote but The Conservatives will eat into it and with NZ First non-committal about co-alition partners the anti-Key vote may find another box to tick.

        • geoff 2.1.1.2

          Farrar will be shitting himself.

          • Tracey 2.1.1.2.1

            regular colonics for his health, one with each poll?

            • geoff 2.1.1.2.1.1

              Let’s just say that if National has to have a coalition with Winston then it could well mean the end of the gravy train for the penguin.

        • Gosman 2.1.1.3

          Unless they move to support ACT, in which case what does it matter to National?

          • Tracey 2.1.1.3.1

            epsom is act if the beloved leader hints it. But i doubt one seat will do it for the coalition of the right and the wierdoes this time.

            • Gosman 2.1.1.3.1.1

              It provides a bolt hole for any disenchanted National party supporters who are against any deal with Winston.

              • Tracey

                How many times have ACT got over 5% and in what circumstances?

                • Gosman

                  Once as far as I am aware but so what considering it is irrelevant about the 5% threshold if they retain Epsom.

                  • Tracey

                    once is right but you suggest national is popular so no drift from nats to act. of course act gets epsom… but not above 2% party vote no matter how much you love the hard right tail that has wagged the tail.

      • Enough is Enough 2.1.2

        I am not so sure about that.

        We seem to be under this belief that the polls favour the right on the basis that the last election result had National poll well below what the media polls were telling us in the week leading up to the election.

        There were also 800,000 odd people who didn’t vote last time and we are again under the belief that they would have voted left if they had got out of bed.

        Is there no correlation between the 2011 media polls, National’s lower election result, and the missing 800,000 voters.

        I am worried. Very worried. Yet everyone here seems to have the attitude of she’ll be right. Business as usual. It is a very worrying attitude to have when our leader is so unpopular so close to the election..

        • mickysavage 2.1.2.1

          My own belief is that there is an inbuilt bias in the polls. I do not see how the sampling can work to correct for landline based polls. I have many, many clients out west who do not have a landline and rely only on cellphone for communication.

          At the same time lefty supporters are over all less likely to vote. Being marginalised and/or young means that you are less likely to exercise your democratic rights. Turnout is crucial.

          David’s preferred PM polling is no different to Helen’s was at the start of her reign as leader of the opposition. He enjoys campaigns and I am sure that support for him will rise as more people get to meet him.

          • Enough is Enough 2.1.2.1.1

            I like your optimism Greg, but I have not seen any hard evidence in respect of what you claim. I haven’t even seen any soft evidence. It seem to be only anecdotes about our left leaning mates not having landlines.

            I am not saying my proposition above is correct but it has as much credibility at this stage as the lefties don’t have landlines argument.

            Helen was not this unpopular 4 months before the first election that she won, or even the two that she lost.

          • The Lone Haranguer 2.1.2.1.2

            I am sure that the Labour vote will grow when Cunliffe et al turn up on the TV on a regular basis during the election campaign. What I am unsure of is whether the Labour vote will come from a soft Nat base or from the Greens and Winston. Face it, neither side can trust Winston but both sides are likely to need him to form a Government.

            Certainly the swinging votes for Labour wont come from Act or the Conservatives.

            Im picking the election result will come down to a 51/49 split from right to left on election night. Or maybe 51/49 from left to right. Its nothing like a foregone conclusion that some may claim.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1.2.1

              The problem is that a Labour led coalition with a razor thin 2-3 seat majority will likely only last one term.

          • Gosman 2.1.2.1.3

            What was Helen Clark’s prefered PM polling in 1999 though?

            • You_Fool 2.1.2.1.3.1

              About the same as Cunliffe’s will be in 2017, after we have suffered through a government formed and run similar to the train-wreck of a 96-99 National government. National will poll somewhere around the lows 10′s as well…. Not that there will be much left for us to govern after they have wrecked it all…

          • mpledger 2.1.2.1.4

            When I was involved in land-line surveys, we used to take mobile phones out to non-landline households. Finding the non-landline household is a bit of a pain though. And it’s not cheap.

          • Melb 2.1.2.1.5

            And plenty of my National-voting mates and I don’t have landlines either. It’s all anecdata.

            David’s preferred PM polling is no different to Helen’s was at the start of her reign as leader of the opposition.

            Oh good. So John Key to win in 2017 as well?

    • mickysavage 2.2

      If you read latest posts on Kiwiblog and Whaleoil the tenor is quite clear. And comments here and on those sites suggest some think that a National win is inevitable.

      • Clemgeopin 2.2.1

        The undecided in the TV1 was 7.2% I think. Not sure if I am correct. Also, I do not know what the undecided % was in the TV3 poll. Do any of you know?

        • Puddleglum 2.2.1.1

          The ‘Refused’ or ‘Don’t Know’ in the latest Colmar Brunton poll was 17%.

          Only 755 people answered that question with the name of a party – which was considerably lower than most of their other polls apart from the immediately preceding one, which had 767 people answer. The earlier polls had 862, 840, 820 and 834 people answer that question positively (with the name of a party). I’m not sure why there was a slump in their response rate for this question in the latest two polls.

          I don’t know the TV3 poll equivalent statistic.

          • Clemgeopin 2.2.1.1.1

            Thanks very much. It is irritating not knowing how many are still undecided. That is an important information. I think it must be made mandatory in their code for poll companies to report that piece of information, because otherwise we don’t easily know if 0% or 2% or 20% or 60% are still undecided!

            • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1.1.1

              political poll minimum standards and regulations – good idea. Including no polling activity to be conducted in the 10 days before election day, giving the electorate a clear week to consider the issues, not polling number nonsense.

      • lprent 2.2.2

        Lets hope that they carry on thinking so. Last election the National-led coalition scraped in with a single seat and with a hydra of four parties in the coalition. This time around there is a good probability that two or possibly even three of those partners will not be in parliament after the election.

        Last time around National was polling 55% or more on the TV polls in the months approaching the election, and they got 47%. That was with a pretty lacklustre Labour campaign.

        This time at best they peaking at 51%. I and anyone with any brains thinks that they will get well less than 45%. They it looks like Labour is getting a lot better at putting the campaign together. I can see why National would really like to trigger a disruptive leadership debate inside Labour at present and why we are seeing the usual attempts.

        Boring – seen this crap many times before.

        The way it is looking at present, I don’t think that even bribing Winston onboard can save the Nats from opposition periods

        • Anne 2.2.2.1

          I can see why National would really like to trigger a disruptive leadership debate inside Labour at present and why we are seeing the usual attempts.

          Worth having a listen to today’s RNZ political spot. Hooton’s attempt to paint Cunliffe as the evil coup perpetrator, and Shearer the innocent victim was quite an act. Ryan resignedly interrupted in the end because she’s heard it all before. She might just as well have said it aloud… oh God here we go again!

          • Kat 2.2.2.1.1

            And on Morning Retort Key said its ‘actually’ the centre right bloc against the far left bloc. Pretty rich from someone who has just announced free doctors visits for under 13yrs and extended paid parental leave. This is the blatant nonsense that goes unchallenged by the MSM.

      • Enough is Enough 2.2.3

        I would be happy if the Nats were that complacent Micky, I don’t think they are though.

        I am more concerned with the general attitude from the left on this site whereby no one seems too concerned with these poll results.

        Lets for a second assume the polls are an accurate portrayal of how the public vote. I am afraid some around here lack the urgency and motivation required to take these Tories on. If we made that assumption they might become a bit more urgent and stop being so relaxed about one of the most important elections in a generation.

        A Labour party polling below 35% is a fucking disaster and we need to reverse now. At the moment we are well below even that level of support.

        • Colonial Viper 2.2.3.1

          There are many significant disconnects between the Labour Party as it exists today, and the electorate. This is evidenced by 6 years of Tory rule, huge youth unemployment and child poverty, economic stagnation and highly unpopular asset sales, and in the last few months a tonne of scandals…and Labour still sits on the low 30′s.

          But its too late to solve those fundamental problems now, now is simply the time to get out there, campaign and maximise turnout.

          • Enough is Enough 2.2.3.1.1

            That is what I cannot get my head around. National is so popular notwithstanding the list of issues with the country that you have noted and the unpopular policies like asset sales that they have rolled out.

            In spite of all that Labour is as close to the Green as they are to National.

            • Clemgeopin 2.2.3.1.1.1

              I think there are several reasons for this: (Broadly speaking),

              *Key has managed to be very affable in his public dealings and TV appearances.
              *He has kept a tight rein on his caucus.
              *National’s spin machine is efficient no matter what the real truth is.
              *MSM in NZ by and large is lazy, superficial, un-investigative, in its journalism, news and commentary.
              * Voters have a short memory generally, in spite of record opposition to asset sales, GCSB affairs, Communication snooping, political corruption scandals etc
              * Many people are barely interested in politics, daily news or issues that matter.
              * By copying or stealing left social policies, National is trying to hide its real right agenda.
              * When people earn good income, they tend to get selfish and scared of socialist policies.
              * People do not discern the long term harm to society from the evils of uncontrolled capitalism, scant protection of environment etc
              * The left vote is divided between Labour, Greens, Maori and Mana. National has no competition, except the hardly registering, non performing ACT, UF and CONS.
              * Labour is yet to announce many policies and sweeteners, obviously closer to the election to get better traction and publicity. Otherwise, people forget. I am sure many have vague memories of some of the already announced policies such as, for example,
              Best Start for all Kiwi kids, NZ Power, Forestry, KiwiAssure, Affordable and Healthy Homes, Job creation, Education initiatives, Health measures etc.

        • Clemgeopin 2.2.3.2

          How do you expect the posters here to help change the polls? What do you propose we do?

          I think the onus is on the Labour party organisation and hierarchy to bring out strong appealing, sensible, fair, exciting policies and get plenty of exposure and publcity (if MSM give that!). Bold policies that will make people sit up and take notice. Apart from that, volunteer party/election work on the streets. I am hoping those things will follow. Four months is actually a long time in politics.

          Tell us your solution.

        • Kat 2.2.3.3

          What more can you expect from polls taken largely in areas such as Remuera and Epsom. The big poll is September 20th, if the turnout is high Labour has a chance. Until then poll bias will continue to favour National.

    • Tiger Mountain 2.3

      Yep the tory shit sprayer is about to employ turbo boost and nitrous. Guyon E’Spinner and the rest of the media toadies have fresh suppositories in place and are raring to go.

      The thing with the polls is that they consistently ignore or misrepresent undecideds and under MMP it will be very close whatever National is allegedly polling. Is every second car I see really filled with unpleasant dark kiwis or imbeciles?

  3. Gosman 3

    On the question in inbuilt bias on poll results do you not think the polling companies have a commercial incentive to remove this as a large anount of the credibility is based on how accurate they are?

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      The polling companies are doing a job, and that job is not necessarily providing accurate polling on the state of the nation.

    • lprent 3.2

      ….do you not think the polling companies have a commercial incentive to remove this as a large anount of the credibility is based on how accurate they are?

      The political polls are a tiny proportion of their main business, most of which is about finding out what products are going down well with consumers. The political polls appear to primarily be done as a form of publicity, and are clearly done with a very limited degree of accuracy. They’d use larger sample sizes otherwise.

      Why would you think that they have a commercial incentive to make a publicity device more accurate? It isn’t exactly a feature of advertising for any company

      • Gosman 3.2.1

        They would have a greater incentive to be more accurate if this was the case as the political polls are like the advertisements for the rest of their business. They would be losing credibility with potential purchasers of their services if they were wildly inaccurate. That is not to state there isn’t any bias mind you just that the polling companies should be interested in removing it if it was a large as some would like to believe.

        • lprent 3.2.1.1

          They aren’t wildly inaccurate. Why would you say that? Micky didn’t, nor did I.

          The polls are merely inaccurate, and the accuracy can be improved easily with technique and the application of more money than the networks are willing to supply for a low cost advertising poll (that gets them a news story).

          Under normal circumstances, this kind of inaccuracy in a political poll doesn’t matter. But this election like the last two is going to be close between the right and left blocs.

          …just that the polling companies should be interested in removing it if it was a large as some would like to believe.

          So who exactly is saying that it is “large” for all of the polls. I see in the post that one polling company, the Reid ones, were identified as having results that appear to be outside the margins of error.

          Why are you smearing the other polls who merely seem to have a systematic bias within the bounds of the margins of error?

          • Gosman 3.2.1.1.1

            If they are not wildly inaccurate then what are we worried about here? Unless you think the polls should show the election is a shoe in for the left when it is showing instead that it is very tight indeed and could go either way. If Labour was confident that was the case then it surely should just continue to do what it is doing as it is on track for forming the next government quite easily.

            • Colonial Viper 3.2.1.1.1.1

              The polls are just part of the PR/marketing spin for the Right. They are effective in that regard eg. in fulfilling their aims of suppressing voter turnout for the Left.

              • Gosman

                How does this control by the right over the polls actually work? Are people belonging to these polling companies being told by some right leaning person in power to ignore proper techniques in generating a poll and just get results that are favourable to the right? If so how would you explain the times when the left led in the same polls in the past (e.g. in the early to mid 2000′s)?

                • Tracey

                  have you been called by a polling company? We get a few calls every election year. The media dont report all questions asked.

                  I assume you are being deliberately obtuse regarding polling techniques and so point you to this to assist.

                  http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=kp&v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

                • How does this control by the right over the polls actually work?

                  How it works is less important than that it exists. Danyl’s bias-adjusted tracking poll (not ‘his’ exactly, but he publishes it) is based on several elections’ worth of evidence that most polls over-estimate National’s support and underestimate Winston First’s support. Whatever the reasons for its existence, the bias exists.

                  • Phil

                    is based on several elections’ worth of evidence that most polls over-estimate National’s support and underestimate Winston First’s support.

                    Unfortunately, the narrative people have used to explain the over-estimate for National runs completely contrary to everything we know about NZF supporters. Namely: Old white people disproportionately respond to polling.

                    My gut feeling is that in 2011 the Nats lost support to NZF in the last few days of the election, as Winston ramped up the tea-tapes rhetoric. The polling companies, who generally poll over a week or two, wouldn’t have seen the full impact because it was happening so quickly, os late in the game.

                    • That might explain 2011, but the original of Danyl’s bias-adjusted graph shows the same effect in the 2008 election and to a lesser extent in 2005. I’ve no idea what mechanism might account for it – as you say, Bomber’s favourite (yoofs and the poor don’t have landlines) certainly wouldn’t result in NZF being underrepresented – but it’s definitely there.

                    • Phil

                      2005 looks roughly right for the four major parties. The clustering of polling before the election isn’t wildly out of whack with the final result. You could certainly build a narrative that the EB fiasco in the last week(s) of the campaign damaged National and their election result suffered relative to the late polling data (just like 2011 and the tea-tapes).

                      2008 looks worse on the chart than I suspect was the true polling situation. You can see that National’s polling results did suffer in the last couple of months and, as I’ve noted at the Dim-Post a couple of times the trend line might implicitly hold on to old poll data for a little bit too long when it’s calculating the true level of support.
                      Another way of putting it is this: if you get rid of the trend line (because it’s a visual anchor that our brains subconsciously focus on) and just look at a series of dots, the National result looks less markedly out of whack – still overstated, but less than implied in the chart.

                      There may also be a kind of reverse ‘Bradley effect’ as well, where people are too embarrassed to say they support NZF and instead say they support National . I have no basis for this, but it’s a possibility.

              • Skinny

                Maybe some ‘shock into voting treatment is in order’

                Like a YouTube video, a mock up scene of get out to vote door knockers dragging some young punk non voters out of their house and flogging them for being so slack.

                I wonder if that will work?

          • Melb 3.2.1.1.2

            So any whispers of what Labour’s internal polling is showing? Surely they’d be paying the money to get this greater accuracy.

    • mpledger 3.3

      But you can’t tell how accurate they are until the election date. And even then the pollsters have an out – too many people didn’t vote, the undecideds made a difference.

      One firm in the US would purposefully over sample Republicans and then as the election got near it would even out the sampling so it would look like what they were doing was correct. The point of their polling wasn’t to find the truth but to reinforce positive Republican sentiment.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    And David Cunliffe has acknowledged that he needs to convey to the population what sort of person he is. He has worked hard on the policy aspect of the job but people do need to have a sense of who he is if they are going to vote for him. Soft media will be vital.

    The month after Conference in Christchurch last year was when the soft media machine should have gone into top gear and simply stayed there for months until hard nosed electioneering season hit.

    • Enough is Enough 4.1

      Exactly. It is fucking incredible that we are still noting these things 9 months after he was appointed and only weeks before the election.

  5. Clemgeopin 5

    Good and fair analysis there.

    It is a little amusing to see the National/ACT dudes today being as happy as clams and clowns after these latest polls. They might as well enjoy the exuberance to their heart’s content now just like the hapless Humpty Dumpty before the coming great fall on Sept 20!

    Voters seem to be thrilled at the National’s ‘extending paid parental leave and free doctor’s visits’! They will begin to realise that those are the policies that are inspired by the opposition parties, Labour, Greens, NZF and Mana! So actually, National has paid a tribute to the opposition by copying such policies. The voters are not all fools. They will begin to acknowledge and shift their support away from National in the coming weeks. Four months is a long time before the actual elections. More policies are yet to come from Labour and other parties. The present spike in National is simply the immediate reaction to the budget lollies. Won’t last.

    MY PREDICTION OF ELECTION RESULT BASED ON POLLS SO FAR:

    Based on the recent four polls and from past experience of the disparity between the pre-election polls and the actual election results, here is my estimate/calculation/prediction/gut feeling of the probable party vote for various parties, rounded to whole numbers:

    NATIONAL………..=42%
    LABOUR…………..=32%
    GREENS…………..=12%
    NZ FIRST…………..=7%
    CONSER…………..=2%
    INTRNET…………..=2%
    MAORI……………..=1%
    MANA………………=1%
    ACT…………………=0%
    UF…………………..=0%
    Other(Rounded)….=1%

    • Gosman 5.1

      Excellent. We should just do away with professional pollsters and use your finger in the air method instead. Looks like the election is already in the bag for the left. No need to worry about anything then.

      • Clemgeopin 5.1.1

        No, but my prediction is based on the polls of the professional pollsters!

        • Gosman 5.1.1.1

          No, you prediction is based on your largely uneducated opinion about the polls of the professional pollsters

          • Clemgeopin 5.1.1.1.1

            You can’t prove your uneducated statement until Sept 20, though. Wait till that time before you pontificate.

            • Kimbo 5.1.1.1.1.1

              Not going to take you own advice, then?

              • Ben Adam

                I am confident of my projection. You can wait till Sept 20 to see if I am wrong.

                • Kimbo

                  Yeah, Nah.

                  Sorry – I’ve got better things to do with my time than file away and then diarise to check your oracles to see if you qualify as the Nostradamus of New Zealand politics. Nothing personal, but life is too short to waste…

    • Colonial Viper 5.2

      I think Labour 32% to 35% represents the “95% confidence interval” of where the final result will fall. For the Greens this will be more like 11.0% to 13.5%.

      National final result will lie between 40% and 44% methinks.

      Winston 6% to 7% seems very likely too. If he stays consistent and keeps pushing, there is a reasonable chance that he will end up king maker.

      Question – will Labour have Hone in a coalition or will MANA be left out in the cold.

      • Skinny 5.2.1

        Hone is far too loose to have in Government, I really think Davis could unseat him and perhaps Annette Sykes wins against Favell to lead Mana.

    • Roy 5.3

      I wouldn’t count on voters noticing anything :-( A lot of them haven’t noticed yet that John Key is a liar.

  6. Ant 6

    They really just need to pull together as a team and just avoid the mistakes for a decent period of time which will include exercising a bit of discipline for once.

    It will always be a hard task for Labour to make headway because as the Taurima episode showed people who aren’t even candidates yet can cause crap stories about Labour to be run. There is still some dumb shit happening, like the woman who tweeted crap about Cunliffe becoming a candidate, but that is the downside of a democratic party I suppose.

    A party run like a business like the Nats will always have stricter comms most of the time, but really what’s the point of Labour if it is run like that?

    • Anne 6.1

      There is still some dumb shit happening, like the woman who tweeted crap about Cunliffe becoming a candidate,

      What was that all about Ant? I don’t do twitter.

  7. Jackal 7

    In this neck of the woods I’m finding it somewhat difficult to locate anybody who’s going to vote for a continuation of John Key’s government. Where are they?

    Perhaps National’s voters are just unwilling to say they support a regime that’s undermining New Zealand’s core values like home ownership, good jobs and a healthy environment. Like first division lotto winners, people who openly support National are few and far between.

    I guess most right-wingers don’t have much conviction in their beliefs, especially when challenged with some facts…and let’s face it; there really isn’t any good reason to give the neoliberal’s another term in power.

  8. red blooded 8

    Cunliffe’s media strategy is improving, but his team did not come as a packaged deal and have taken time to fit together and build momentum. This needed to be a stronger focus of his thinking and planning while campaigning for the leadership. I know that he put the media manager for Shearer on paid leave as soon as he took office and for quite a time made do without a manager. I guess this was partly a result of the muddle around the change of leader, but it also saw a communications black hole develop for too long after the change (& silly errors like the mismanaged announcement from the last conference).

    Anyway, there is certainly a need for urgency but nobody’s interests are served by panic. Having said that, don’t let’s assume that Key is being honest when he says he’s not taking a 3rd term for granted. People here (rightly) suspect his motives on other matters yet seem very ready to swallow his line about this. He’s a strong tactician and he doesn’t want to look too arrogant. After all, he wants all his voters out on the day, not sitting complacently at home.

    • Skinny 8.1

      Cunliffe reminds me of a fox, it’s that squinty look, I suggest plastic surgery or a strong dose of Botox to freeze them roundish, temporarily till after the election.

  9. Ad 9

    Whether the polls are slightly biased or not is irrelevant. They are bloody depressing, and over too long.

    The Labour Party needs to hold its campaign launch sooner rather than later.
    I appreciate that there will be the usual launch event in Wellington.
    But it’s not enough. Cunliffe needs to act fast to turn around the sense that New Zealand needs to know him before they can like him. The little regional visits haven’t been effective, nor the soft media profile. We need regional launch events.

    The activists can’t go on getting relentless demands for more activism, doing more telephone polling and fundraising, without something fun and confident to celebrate. I have yet to figure out what Labour Central headquarters is doing – because there is no visible energy from the machine other than sorting out candidates.

    We need momentum and enthusiasm, in order to respond to the accelerating demands to come. Because at the moment it’s just bloody depressing.

    • Anne 9.1

      +1 Ad.

    • Will@Welly 9.2

      Whoever is behind David Cunliffe’s strategy needs shooting. You need to win the campaign, not come a distant second. Time to announce “Game on.” National did so back in December.

  10. rich the other 10

    The polls are spot on , here’s an example of why.
    The protest outside Key’s home , it’s helping Key and damaging the left .
    The current political judgement being shown by the left seems to be very poor .

    I suspect these people are playing into Nationals hands and will generate a good deal of sympathy for Key and his family .
    Keep this up and watch the Nat’s go even further ahead in the polls.

    • Naturesong 10.1

      Because involving New Zealand in the US extrajudicial assassination program is a vote winner?

      If that’s the case, we really are fucked – that’s we, New Zealand (politics is not a football game where my team is ahead of yours, it’s what dictates the direction of the nation)

      Killing innocent people as a by product of assassination without trial is how you create terrorism, not how you fight it.

      • Roflcopter 10.1.1

        You lost that message the minute you decided to sit outside the PM’s house… simple.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1.1.1

          Are you such a moron that you can’t distinguish between John Minto and the wider left? Are you responsible for Kyle Chapman?

        • Ant 10.1.1.2

          I agree, most of the electorate find the personalisation of protesting to the extent where it is right outside someones house as distasteful. It just has the perception of being the activity of crazies.

          Also for better or for worse people don’t hate Key enough for it to go down well, if anything they’ll feel more empathy for him.

      • Jackal 10.1.2

        +1 @ Naturesong. There is absolutely nothing wrong with peaceful protest. In fact it is one of the best ways to effect change.

        • Kimbo 10.1.2.1

          Hmm. Not an opinion shared by Norman Kirk. He considered protests invariably alienated and angered those whose support they are meant to mobilise, and they are a self-indulgent waste of energy when more constructive and mature ways should be employed to effect change.

          But then what did Big Norm know?

          • Tracey 10.1.2.1.1

            or gandhi

            • Kimbo 10.1.2.1.1.1

              Gandhi campaigned in a situation where representative democracy didn’t exist, and so that it could.

              Kirk did.

              • Clemgeopin

                Protest works well everywhere, especially in a democracy, highlighting the issue garnering publicity and further support.
                It is much harder to do in authoritarian states. Sometimes, it works there too but at great cost, including lives, freedom and property.

                • Kimbo

                  Works well everywhere? So the possibility (read probability given that the Sue Bradfords, Hone Harawiras on John Mintos of this world are REJECTED by 99% of the electorate when they actually run for office) that protests and protestors can do more damage than good for their cause doesn’t enter into your plausibility structure?

                  Fair enough. Ya pays yer money and takes yer pick.

                  • Clemgeopin

                    That is not the fault of the protesters that have concern for certain issues, but the fault of any one or more characteristics of the docile, trusting, lazy, uncaring, selfish, unthinking, uninterested and/or complacent people.

                    • Kimbo

                      Ah, the humility, self-awareness and calm and measured perspective of the protest movement illustrated in one post.

                      And they wonder why the “silent majority” holds them in mutual contempt.

          • Jackal 10.1.2.1.2

            Do you have a link to back up this assertion Kimbo? Norman Kirk dispatching a frigate to Mururoa to halt nuclear testing kind of shows he supported peaceful protest.

            • Kimbo 10.1.2.1.2.1

              A timely question given the recent publication of ‘The Mighty Totara’. One of the sources used by David Grant was “The Diary of the Kirk Years” by Kirk’s secretary, Margaret Hayward (published in 1981). In it she clearly outlined Kirk’s objection to loud, intrusive, undignified protest – as was typical of the anti-Springbok and Vietnam examples of the late 1960 and early 1970s, and which sum up succinctly the effort in Parnell last night that was the subject of my post.

              It wasn’t that Kirk didn’t sympathise with many of the causes that had become increasingly fashionable to protest about, often illegally, in that era. In many cases he did. But he was also sensitive to bringing people with him rather than alienating and antagonising. And I have little doubt what he would have thought of the targeting of a politician’s family home. Don’t believe me? Read Hayward’s book.

              Which is why, when Kirk did send the frigate to Mururoa in 1973, it was a restrained, creative, and dignified action. In contrast to the Fri, a CND yacht that led a flotilla of private protest vessels at the same time, Kirk ordered NO illegal or antagonistic entry by the Otago into French territorial waters. Indeed, when the Fri was boarded by the French for breaching international law, Kirk made very sure NO assistance or attempts to intervene were made, in order to differentiate the official New Zealand government action from others.

              Kirk would have also let the 1973 Springboks tour New Zealand IF the Vorster government had allowed for a merit-selected South African team and mixed race trials. He also had contempt for the illegal activity and threats of HART, particularly Trevor Richards, and the burning down of a Papakura club rugby grandstand in the lead-up to his decision to ask the NZRFU to cancel the tour. Indeed, given Big Norm’s firm stance on law-and-order, his decison was made ultimately not BECAUSE of HART, but IN SPITE of it.

              Plenty of lessons in Hayward’s book for the modern Labour Party if it was interested in knowing why floating voters are almost always repelled by loud and confrontational protest and political parties that do not cleraly differentiate themselves from it…

              http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8545352/Protests-the-start-of-the-end-of-apartheid

  11. captain hook 11

    the nats are crowd followers. at the moment they all running after a winner but the momentum will shift pretty soon. I see gooseman is back. The National Party obviously dont pay him overtime to hang round here in the weekends.

  12. dave 12

    as a voter national is offering me nothing . unafforble cost of living, no wage rises, an economy with permanent high unemployment, unpayable levels of debt and an uncerten future. thanks for the brighter future!!!!!!!!!!

    • infused 12.1

      Low unemployment… unplayable levels of debt? Please. Skill up and get yourself a wage wise. Does the govt have to wipe your ass too?

  13. “There is no presence of the American columns in the city of Baghdad at all. We besieged them and we killed most of them.”

    • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1

      “National can govern alone.”

      • poem 13.1.1

        How? Despite the vote rigging cup of tea with john banks, despite all the media hype, despite all the hype of polls, national couldn’t managed it last time, and they have done some pretty bad things to NZ and its people since then. You have underestimated the masses, AND MMP. And before you launched into a spiel on polls, who said the polls are true? they were wrong last time. john key and national did NOT get the level of support the polls were touting, and national did not govern alone either.

  14. Philj 14

    xox
    Polls are a bit like statistics, open to fiddling.
    Now that we are all experiencing the brighter future I can’t wait for what lies ahead. Hopefully Radio New Zealand National will improve, it can’t sink much lower. Guyon,Suzie,Jim and Kathryn. The tone of Mourning Report has morphed into some fake US style of hype ,sensationalism and increasingly, stupidity. I.e. Guyon ” Its really cold ? ” Farmer replies ” Its called winter Guyon.” Please save me from this rubbish!

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    Labour | 23-08
  • Labour irons out low income tax issue
    The increasing casualisation of work has led to many New Zealand families being disadvantaged through the tax they pay, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. "Many low paid workers are having to work two or three jobs to make ends meet...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Cornered Government comes out swinging
    The National Government is so desperate to keep its dead-in-the-water expert teachers policy alive, it has refused to rule out forcing schools to participate through legislation, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “John Key today attacked the Educational Institute for...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Pacific people continue to go backwards under National
    A report from Victoria University highlights the fact that Pacific people are continuing to go backwards under a National Government, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “The report shows the largest inequality increases were in smoking, obesity, tertiary...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Wellington transport plan needs to keep moving
    The failure of the Transport Agency to properly look at alternatives to the Basin Reserve flyover is not a good reason for further delays to improving transport in Wellington, Labour MPs Grant Robertson and Annette King say. “The Board of...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Labour’s focus on inequality, kids and better job prospects
    Tackling child poverty and removing barriers to people working part time to enhance their prospects of moving into a fulltime job are highlights of Labour’s Social Development policy. Releasing the policy today, spokesperson Sue Moroney said while part-time work was...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Political staff should give answers under oath
    The Inspector General of Security and Intelligence should use her full statutory powers to question witnesses under oath about the leak of SIS information, says Labour MP Phil Goff. “Leakage of confidential information from the SIS for political purposes is...
    Labour | 21-08
  • High dollar, hands-off Govt sends workers to dole queue
    The loss of up to 100 jobs at Croxley stationery in Auckland is devastating news for their families and the local Avondale community, Labour’s Employment, Skills and Training spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The company’s inability to compete in international markets...
    Labour | 21-08
  • National’s flagship education policy dead in the water
    National’s plan to create executive principals and expert teachers is effectively dead in the water with news that 93 percent of primary teachers have no confidence in the scheme, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The fact that teachers are...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Dunedin will be a knowledge and innovation centre under Labour
    Dunedin will become a knowledge and innovation centre under a Labour Government that will back local businesses, support technology initiatives and fund dynamic regional projects, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Nowhere has the National Government’s short-sightedness been more apparently than...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Inquiry into SIS disclosures the right decision
    Labour MP Phil Goff says the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has done the right thing by launching an inquiry into the disclosure of SIS documents about a meeting between himself and the agency’s former director-general. “This inquiry is necessary...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Labour – supporting and valuing carers and the cared for
    Placing real value on our elderly and the people who care for them will be a priority for a Labour Government, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. Releasing Labour’s Senior Citizens policy today David Cunliffe promised that a Labour Government would...
    Labour | 20-08
  • By Hoki! It’s Labour’s fisheries policy
    A Labour Government will protect the iconic Kiwi tradition of fishing by improving access to the coast, protecting the rights of recreational fishers and reviewing snapper restrictions, Labour’s Fisheries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Catching a fish from the rocks, beach...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Mighty River – Mighty Profits – Mighty hard to swallow
    Mighty River Power’s profit increase of 84 per cent is simply outrageous, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “Demand for electricity is flat or declining yet the company has made enormous profits. It is the latest power company to celebrate...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Collins’ actions were wrong, not unwise
    John Key’s moral compass remains off-kilter as he cannot bring himself to declare Judith Collins’ actions outright wrong, not simply ‘unwise’, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “Under pressure John Key is finally shifting his stance but his failure to condemn...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Public servants behaving with more integrity than their masters
    The State Services Commission's new report on the integrity of our state services reflects the yawning gap between the behaviour of public servants and that of their political masters, Labour's State Services spokesperson Maryan Street says. “This report, which surveyed...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Phil Twyford Speech to NZCID
    "Labour's plan to build more and build better: how new approaches to housing, transport and urban development will deliver cities that work" Phil Twyford, Labour Party spokesperson on housing, transport, Auckland issues, and cities.  ...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Labour commits to independent Foreign Affairs and Trade
    “Labour is committed to New Zealand’s Foreign Affairs and Trade policy being independent and proactive, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “We are a small but respected country. Our voice and actions count in international affairs. Labour will take a...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Key must sack Collins over abhorrent actions
    The latest revelations that Judith Collins sent the contact details of a public servant to WhaleOil in a desperate attempt to divert media attention from a bad story is abhorrent, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “John Key and Judith Collins...
    Labour | 19-08
  • It’s downhill from here under National
    The forecast drop in exports and predicted halving of growth shows that it’s downhill from here with National, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “Growth under this Government peaked in June and halves to two per cent in coming years....
    Labour | 19-08
  • John Key loses moral compass over Collins
    John Key has lost his moral compass over Judith Collins’ involvement with Cameron Slater and lost touch with New Zealanders’ sense of right and wrong, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “Whoever is Prime Minister there are expectations they will not...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Mana Movement General Election 2014 List confirmed
    The MANA List is now confirmed with all the candidates as below (the numbers are the respective Internet MANA rankings). Candidate, Electorate, Internet MANA List Position Hone Harawira, Te Tai Tokerau (1) Annette Sykes, Waiariki (3) John Minto, Mt Roskill (4) Te Hamua Nikora, Ikaroa-Rawhiti...
    Mana | 18-08
  • PREFU likely to confirm dropping exports
    National’s economic management will be put under the spotlight in tomorrow’s PREFU given clear signs the so-called rock star economy has fallen off the stage, with plummeting prices for raw commodity exports, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “Under National,...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Record profits while Kiwis face a cold winter
    The record profits by two of New Zealand’s largest electricity companies will be a bitter pill for New Zealand households who are paying record amounts for their power, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “No doubt the Key government will...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time for John Key to answer yes or no questions
    John Key’s train-wreck interview on Morning Report shows he is no longer capable of a simple yes or no answer and has lost touch with what’s right and wrong, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “John Key has become so media...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Key must clarify who signed out SIS OIA
    Yet again John Key is proving incapable of answering a simple question on an extremely important issue – this time who signed off Cameron Slater’s fast-tracked SIS OIA request on Phil Goff, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “John Key’s claim...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time to invest in our tertiary education system
    A Labour Government will fully review the student support system – including allowances, loans, accommodation support and scholarships – with a view to increasing access and making the system fair, transparent and sustainable, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Maryan Street says....
    Labour | 17-08
  • Labour will facilitate regional Māori economic development agencies
    The next Labour Government will facilitate the creation of regional Māori economic development groups lead by iwi and hapū to work in partnership with business and public agencies as part of its Māori Development policy. “Labour is committed to working towards...
    Labour | 16-08
  • PRIME MINISTER’S DENIAL AT ODDS WITH NATIONAL PARTY STATEMENT
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has today released an email from the General Manager of the National Party that directly contradicts recent statements from the Prime Minister in relation to the 2011 breaches of Labour Party website databases. In his stand-up...
    Labour | 16-08
  • Labour committed to a healthier NZ for all
    A Labour Government will shift the focus of the health system from narrow targets and short term thinking to make public health and prevention a priority, Labour’s health spokesperson Annette King says. Releasing Labour’s full Health policy today she said...
    Labour | 15-08
  • Time Key took responsibility for Collins
    It is well past time for John Key to take some responsibility for the misuse of power and information by his Minister Judith Collins, and follow through on his last warning to her, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “The evidence released...
    Labour | 14-08
  • La’o Hamutuk calls for inquiry into Timor GAP ‘mismanagement’ of oil ...
    The Suai project on the South Coast … “liberated” land but confused communities.Photo: La’o Hamutuk David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific. AN INDEPENDENT Timor-Leste development and social justice agency has called for an inquiry into the Timor GAP corporation...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • What Is Nicky Hager?
    WHAT WILL HISTORY MAKE of Nicky Hager? That slight, perpetually boyish, journalist who descends periodically, like the admonishing angel in a medieval mystery play, to trouble our consciences and wreak merry havoc with the orderly conduct of our political affairs....
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Can anyone in msm explain how after Dirty Politics that they all got played...
    Would you not think, that after reading Dirty Politics, that our mainstream media wouldn’t allow themselves to get tricked and played again by the VERY SAME discredited pundits? The best new feature on Radio NZ is their ‘Blog Watch’ and their...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Crusher Collins caught out lying about Privacy Commissioner – is this her...
    Crusher angry. Crusher smash own career. Crusher more angry. You would think that after getting outed as such a nasty, vicious piece of work in Dirty Politics, that Crusher would be scrambling to dial back the lies and manipulations. Apparently...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Cunliffe vs Key – first leaders debate
    This is your election ‘moderator’ – just one more reason an incoming Government need to sack everyone at TVNZ and reform it into an actual public broadcaster. The first leaders debate happens this Thursday, 7pm on TV One. I have...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – An Old and Honourable Profession
      When Dirty Politics started to reference an ex-prostitute I began to get antsy. My first response was “come on Nicky, we decriminalised in 2003. Its sex worker.” My second response was “Ah oh. Who was it and did they...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Bought and paid for: the dirty politics of climate denial
    Has climate denial in New Zealand been bought and paid for by corporate interests? We already know that the ACT Party’s routine denial is closely linked to the financial support the party receives from wealthy free market fundamentalist Alan Gibbs,...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • If the msm read The Daily Blog, THIS wouldn’t be a surprise – explainin...
    Yawn. How embarrassing for Hamish Rutherford and Andrea Vance, their breathless article today suggests that the idea of Labour and NZ First cutting a  deal over the buy back of assets  is some how new news. Silly mainstream media  journalists. If...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • How much tax does John Key pay compared to a minimum wage worker??
    Yesterday I did some calculations to find out what tax John Key pays compared to a worker on the minimum wage. And I put out this media release for the Mana Movement: MANA Movement Economic Justice spokesperson John Minto is...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Hip hop death threats – the selective outrage of our media
    PM death threat in hip hop songAn Auckland hip-hop crew slammed for releasing a song with lyrics that apparently include a threat to kill Prime Minister John Key are urging young people to enrol to vote. Kill The PM, by...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Watch Slater turn into Key right before your eyes
    Watch Slater turn into Key right before your eyes...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • I don’t always agree with Patrick Gower – but he didn’t deserve this!
    I don’t always agree with Patrick Gower – but he didn’t deserve this weird spear tackle from behind by his own company. I was listening to this interview at the time, and the awkwardness of it must be the worst...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Is it weird Radio NZ ban me yet still have….
    Is it weird Radio NZ ban me for life because I criticised the Prime Minister yet still have Matthew Hooton, David Farrar and Jordan Williams, 3 of the main protagonists revealed in Dirty Politics as part of their ongoing political...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Christchurch GCSB meeting – why mass surveillance matters in 2014
    This is the video for last weeks GCSB meeting in Christchurch. Don’t forget Nicky Hager’s public meeting Wednesday night in Auckland, TDB will live stream the event in the interests of our democracy. Broadcast starts 7.30pm here on TDB....
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Assange, Greenwald to appear at Town Hall meeting? + KDC is not the hacker ...
    Wikileaks founder and the engineer of revealing some of the largest abuses of power in the modern era, Julian Assange, is rumoured to be appearing at the September 15th Town Hall meeting. Assange would join award winning investigative journalist Glen...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Why Paula Bennett will be the next leader and Hooton throws the Prime Minis...
    I don’t think the public have any idea of the behind the scenes meltdown now occurring within National. There are plenty of decent right wingers who all have ethical standards who have looked at what their leaders have been doing and...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – That Awkward Feeling When Your Campaign Goe...
    Urgh. It’s a thankless and nearly impossible task politically firefighting some days. Somebody (who isn’t you, but who’s in your care, or whom you’ve got a close professional relationship with) does or says something stupid; somebody from the Media’s there...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Joe Trinder – Dirty politics goes viral
    Join the latest social networking craze this election that every Dog Cat and Jabba is putting on their facebook pages.     Joe Trinder – Ngāti Awa Born and born in Ōtepoti Ōtākou, Ex RNZN he is an Information Technology...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Blogwatch: An open letter to David Farrar: Please, be that guy
    Dear David, In light of  Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics, you wrote a blog entitled ‘Some changes on Kiwiblog’ and you suggested it was time to tighten up ship on your website, saying “I want to improve trust in myself,...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • What The Hell Was That! Reflections on the media’s coverage of the Intern...
    WHAT, EXACTLY, DO WE KNOW about the confrontation outside Internet-Mana’s campaign launch? Well, we know the news media was there in force. We also know Internet-Mana’s media person, Pam Corkery, blew her stack. We know that Corkery’s outburst led the...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • NZ First candidate – homophobic, bennie bashing anti-intellectual clown
    Oh God, apart from Ron Mark, Tracey Martin, Curwen Rolinson and Winston before midday, the woeful cavalcade of political circus freaks NZ First seem to attract has picked up another hitchhiker. This time Epsom candidate Cliff Lyon who said this about Labour… “If...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Nicky Hager Public Meeting LIVESTREAM on The Daily Blog 7.30pm Wednesday 27...
    As part of our commitment to the 2014 Election debate, The Daily Blog will Livestream the Nicky Hager public meeting in Auckland, 7.30pm live from the Mt Eden War Memorial this Wednesday on this site. Doors open at 7pm. It...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Opening Night. It’s like an opera!
    On Saturday night just gone, we collectively experienced one of the premier panegyrys of political pageantry in our three yearly electoral cycle. For one glorious weekend evening every three years, it’s not the All Blacks or some Super 14 team, or...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Unions – what ...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Timor-Leste’s Parliament handed ‘humiliating’ defeat over harsh media...
    East Timorese journalists raise their hands to approve the Timor-Leste JournalistCode of Ethics in October 2013. Photo: Tempo Semanal/Cafe Pacific   David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific. PACIFIC SCOOP reported this week that East Timor’s Appeal Court had scrapped...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • THIS is why we need a public broadcaster!
    The richest 20% of us in NZ own 70% of the wealth, with 18% in the hands of the second richest quintile, and 10% in the hands of the middle quintile. Just 2 per cent was owned by people in...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • A vote for Key is a vote for this
    A vote for Key is a vote for this...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • Why the Secret Intelligence Service feeding Cameron Slater information is s...
    Folks, it doesn’t matter if you are Right or Left, the issue of the Secret Intelligence Service being forced to feed a far right hate speech merchant like Cameron Slater with sensitive information is an ‘us’ issue. The SIS are...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • How lost and irrelevant are ACT?
    So ACT had it’s ‘launch’. Well, what passes as an ACT launch these days. Lot’s of anorak’s with that 1000 yard star and dreams of a Milton Friedman Free Market dancing behind their eyelids all crammed into a room small...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • National Party rowing advert aimed at Gen Xers
    Unkind wags such as myself would suggest that if the above were a real representation of National, it would look more like this…   National know they have the rural mob and the angry provincial vote locked in, with their...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • National Housing propaganda – McGehan Close Revisited
    .   . Housing has become a major, defining issue in New Zealand. We have critical shortages and escalating prices in  in the main centres and falling house values in the regions. The National government has addressed the supply &...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • The boldest, most creative and dynamic policy on employment for two generat...
    If you watched TV news last night you could be forgiven for thinking that a circus was on when Internet MANA launched its election campaign today. The reporting was abysmal but I won’t rehash it here because it’s been described...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • Call for Aaron Bhatnagar’s resignation from govt body
    .   . One of the many sordid “bit”-players in Nicky Hager’s book, “Dirty Politics“, and one of Cameron Slater’s inner-cabal, is businessman, National Party card-carrying cadre,  and former city councillor, Aaron Bhatnagar; . . In 2008, Bhatnagar was caught...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • Internet MANA announce free tertiary education & full employment – me...
    Internet MANA launch their campaign after an extraordinary road tour and after gaining 4% in the Colmar Brunton Poll, today should have been the start point for a momentous occasion  in progressive political history. It was, but sadly most won’t...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • Privilege denies true representation of disability rights
    The human right of people with disabilities in New Zealand has come back into the spotlight by the Human Rights Commission. The report named ‘Making Disability Rights Real’ highlights some of the main issues as being adequate data collection, accessibility,...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • Election TV campaign ads – Opening Night
    . .The infamous National Party ‘Dancing Cossacks’ Attack advert  NZ, 23 August -  The election campaign “kicked off” on Saturday evening, with a one hour “televisual feast”. Party advertisements were broadcast for National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, United Future/Peter Dunne,...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • Blogging vs Journalism vs Politics – The 7 latest revolting revelations
    So we now enter the most dangerous phase for National, the phase where the minutia of detail is so great now, the media have all the ammunition to keep asking questions that clearly show Key isn’t being honest in his...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • A positive story of political co-operation!
    .   . Wellington, NZ, 23 August - The following is a true story and shows how the natural inclination of the rank-and-file of our main left-wing parties is to work together… I’ve been in contact with both the Green...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • “Dirty Politics” – the fall-out continues…
    . . As the shock-wave from Nicky Hager’s book, “Dirty Politics” continues to engulf everything in it’s path, it’s worthwhile looking at the damage caused by the ever-expanding fallout… Fallout Dispersal Zone: 1oom Farrar wrote on 19 August  (and later...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • #TeamKey’s sinking boat
    #TeamKey’s sinking boat...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • Cat vs Key – I know nuffin
    Cat vs Key – I know nuffin...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • Israel’s sudden fixation with Hamas
    Israel’s sudden fixation with Hamas...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • A Matter of Whether John Key is Credible
    Headline: A Matter of Whether John Key is Credible Analysis by Selwyn Manning. Prime Minister, John Key.WITHIN NATIONAL’S STRATEGY TEAM there is an acceptance that the facts revealed in the book, Dirty Politics, is chewing away at the party’s popular...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • TDB Political Diary for 2014 Election
    Here are the political events TDB will be covering this election. I will be live tweeting these events and  blog reviews will follow the next day. Internet MANA launch – August – Sunday 24th – 1pm, Western Springs School Green...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • One man’s struggle to find a copy of Dirty Politics
    I’m typing this on top of Dirty Politics.  I got the last copy yesterday morning at the local branch of a chain bookshop.  I was really in to get the paper.  I know it sold out – everyone knows - but the first thing...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • From Tucker to Key – while you were out
      From Tucker to Key – while you were out...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Amnesty International – Justice is not Blind in Ferguson
    When a US cop pulls a gun on an unarmed man, he could be acting upon a series of impulses that have been formed since before he or she could talk. What does that police officer see in front of...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Putting an end to zero-hour contracts in 2015
    All around the world attention is being drawn to what have been dubbed in the UK “zero-hour contracts”. These are contracts that don’t have any guaranteed hours even though the worker may be regularly employed. Unite Union has been struggling...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • NZ’s Foreign Aid: The Party Policies Compared
    For the past two elections, I’ve cast my vote based on a single question, which party promises to give the most money in foreign aid? I grant that this is a fairly narrow and simplistic lens through which to judge...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Steering By The Real: Chris Trotter responds to Paul Buchanan
    WHEN ACADEMICS take to blogging the rest of us best be careful. And when they offer comment on the subject of dirty politics we should all pay attention. I will always remember my history lecturer, Dr Michael Cullen’s, confident dismissal...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Toke the Vote 2014: NORML’s guide to NZ cannabis policies
    NORML’s policy, renewed at our recent national conference , is to encourage supporters to vote for parties and candidates who will work to reform our cannabis laws....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Internet Mana List Embodies Modern Aotearoa
    An impressive mix of personal and professional skills, cultural backgrounds and ages marks the release of Internet MANA’s combined party list. “Our list highlights the calibre of talent woven throughout Internet MANA,” said leader Hone Harawira....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • The Dirty Politics Fallout
    Tonight’s 3News-Reid Research poll shows that the Conservative Party is on the verge of making it into the next Parliament, even without an electorate deal with National. The poll, conducted in the week following the release of Nicky Hager’s...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Te reo Māori trending at New Zealand Fashion Week
    Language and fashion express culture and identity so it’s fitting for the Māori Party to launch its te reo Māori policy at New Zealand’s premiere fashion event in Auckland....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Party And Candidate Lists for 2014 Election Released
    The Electoral Commission has released the nominations for the 2014 General Election, with 15 registered political parties and 554 candidates contesting the election....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Take Steps Against Child Poverty with Us!
    TAKE STEPS AGAINST CHILD POVERTY WITH US! Britomart to Aotea Square, Auckland, 11am, Saturday 6 Sept Music * Interactive Art * Stilt Walkers * Great Speakers * Plus more!...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Leading politicians to debate NZ’s role in the world
    Have you ever wondered where New Zealand stands when it comes to issues beyond our borders? Join Amnesty International's North Shore Group on Monday 1 September for a lively cross party debate and the chance to find out the answer...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Political Debate on Family Violence – Livestream
    The Dunedin Collaboration Against Family Violence is happy to announce the upcoming political debate on Family Violence chaired by Professor Nicola Atwool of the University of Otago. Family Violence is a huge problem in our community and we invite representatives...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Politicians ignore 20% of New Zealanders
    Despite 20% of New Zealanders supporting it, none of the parties currently represented in Parliament endorse the legalisation of cannabis....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Company tax rates
    The Op Ed pages of the left-leaning New York Times are full of articles by economists supporting proposals to dramatically lower Company Taxes. These economists are urging the United States to lower company taxes and point to Canada where the...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Stephen Dudley Case: No appeal or review of discharge
    On 8 August 2014 Crown Law received a request from the office of the Auckland Crown Solicitor to consider a Crown appeal against the discharge without conviction entered in respect of M in the High Court at Auckland on 7...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Dudley Family Statement
    “We are utterly devastated at the news regarding the law not allowing for this unjustified discharge without conviction to be appealed....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Chief Judge: Chief Sized Offender Bias
    “Justice by name, not by nature” states Ruth Money Sensible Sentencing Trust National Spokesperson, of Justice Helen Winkelmann’s decision to discharge without conviction the offender charged with the fatal attack on 15 year old schoolboy Stephen...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Confusion over BPS Reducing Crime and Reoffending Results
    A survey has revealed widespread confusion – even amongst professionals in the justice sector – about what the government’s reducing crime and reoffending progress reports actually mean....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Commission condemns violent attack on Gay Wellingtonians
    The Human Rights Commission has condemned a violent attack on staff and patrons at a gay bar in central Wellington last Friday. GayNZ reported that the alleged attackers were abusive and violent when they realised the bar and the people...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • One down, 12 to go says Community Housing Aotearoa
    The Waimahia Inlet is a step in the right direction for community housing to deliver 20% of New Zealand’s social and affordable housing by 2020, says Community Housing Aotearoa. CHA Director Scott Figenshow says the sector has been set a...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Research considering changes to pedestrian crossing laws
    A University of Canterbury research project has been considering the costs and benefits of a range of potential changes to pedestrian crossing laws that would bring New Zealand in line with the rest of the world....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Dairy farmers and consumers at risk from unapproved GE Grain
    The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) must immediately test all maize and soy for presence of unapproved GE lines coming from the Americas....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • NZ on Air Refuse to Condemn “Kill the PM” Song
    New Zealand On Air has refused to condemn @peace’s 'Kill the PM' song, and will not provide any assurance that no further taxpayer money will be used to support groups that promote violence and political hate. Earlier today the Taxpayers’...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • iPredict Ltd 2014 Election Update #32
    The combined wisdom of iPredict’s 8000 registered traders suggests National has begun a recovery after its prospects crashed last week following the release of Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics . The governing party’s forecast party vote is back...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Juicy carrot for prisoners alarming suggestion – McVicar
    The Conservative Party Justice Spokesman, Garth McVicar says the public will be alarmed to learn that the only tool the Corrections Department has available to get prisoners to behave is to offer them a juicy carrot....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Panel: Fiji’s Return to Democracy
    Fiji’s post-coup elections and their impact in the Pacific o What is the role of the media in the Elections? o How might New Zealand help Fiji on its return to democracy?...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Cross-party consensus on climate change critical
    Senior NZ health professionals welcome recent policy announcements on climate change by major political parties, saying cross-party consensus is critical to address this leading health issue....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Minister of Transport to Attend Election Debate Tomorrow
    Organisers of tomorrow night's transport debate in Auckland are delighted that Minister of Transport Hon. Gerry Brownlee will now be attending....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Society Applauds Proposed NZ-Wide Risk Assessment
    The Wise Response Society is heartened to see that Labour' just released Climate Change policy includes formal support for the Society's call for a New Zealand-wide Risk Assessment. The Green Party has also formally acknowledged support for the Wise...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Iwi Leaders welcome Labour policy on climate change
    Labour’s policy to stamp out price – gouging by big polluters that has cost New Zealand tax-payers $1.4 billion over the last 3 years and especially impacted low – income Maori households has been welcomed by Dr. Apirana Mahuika, Chairman...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Auckland Broadcasting Debate this Sunday
    Auckland Broadcasting Debate 6.30pm, August 31st 2014 (doors open 6.15pm) Pioneer Women's Hall High Street, Auckland City...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • New Zealand First Party List 2014
    New Zealand First is pleased to release the Party list for the 2014 election. We believe the list is a balance of experience, youth, skill and ability. These candidates, many of whom will be in Parliament after the election, will...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Refugee Policy in Election Year
    Leading politicians representing major political parties will be highlighting their policies, answering questions and ebating the issues in the lead-up to the coming election in an event organised by RCNZ this coming Saturday in Auckland. The present...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Intueri shareholders celebrate corporate welfare
    New Zealand's largest tertiary education company Intueri, which announced a $1.6 million profit yesterday, has received an increase in public funding over the last two years of at least $1.8 million....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Response to “Kill The PM” Song Coverage
    I do not want to literally kill this man. I do not wish to have sexual relations with anybody related to him. Let's not pretend a silly little song ever changed anything. Last I seen famine was still going pretty...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Sarjeant Gallery redevelopment resource consent approved
    Mayor Annette Main has welcomed the granting of resource consent for the Sarjeant Gallery Te Whare o Rehua Whanganui redevelopment project....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • How much tax does PM pay compared to a minimum wage worker?
    John Minto, MANA Movement Economic Justice Spokesperson Tuesday 26 August, 2014 MANA Movement Economic Justice spokesperson John Minto is calling for a radical overhaul of New Zealand’s taxation system with calculations showing that a minimum wage...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Aucklanders to March in Solidarity with Iraqi Christians
    Hundreds of people are expected at a march this weekend in Auckland's Queen St, calling for solidarity with persecuted minorities in Iraq....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Why not let Robin Hood help our children thrive?
    Why have we been so willing to accept the fact that a quarter of our children live in poverty? And why are we so unwilling to do anything about it when some simple measures would give all New Zealand’s kids...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Te Mana o Te Wai – the quality and vitality of water
    The Māori Party intends introducing legislation that gives the status of taonga to freshwater and will prioritise the improvement of its quality and vitality making it safer for drinking, swimming and gathering food....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • “Kill the PM” Band @Peace with Taxpayers’ Money
    Responding to the Fairfax article that hip-hop group @peace have released a track that threatens to kill the Prime Minister and have sex with his daughter, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says:...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • New Zealanders are right to be afraid of burglars
    “A poll in a major morning newspaper shows New Zealanders are afraid they will be burgled. They are definitely right about that,” said Dr. Jamie Whyte ACT Leader. “Official Police statistics report less than half of the burglaries that actually...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • National and Labour to outline economic visions
    The deputy leaders of National and Labour will outline their visions for the New Zealand economy in two upcoming public lectures hosted by Victoria University of Wellington....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Objectionable Hip-Hop Song Offensive to All NZ’ers
    Family First is slamming Auckland hip-hop crew @peace for their new release containing lyrics that threaten to kill Prime Minister John Key and have sex with his daughter....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Maori party Candidates Announced
    Maori Party Candidates Announced The Māori Party has today announced its list of 24 candidates to contest the 2014 General Election. "The list is headed by our co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell, and followed by two brilliant young candidates, number...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Commercial Industry Opposes Recreational Fishing Policy
    Press release from Alan Simmons. United Future Outdoors spokesperson and Candidate for Taupo. United Future Party President....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Statement on William Yan
    The Internet Party has noted published comments from Mega Ltd. about a shareholding in the company being subject to a Restraining Order by police under the Criminal Proceeds (Recovery) Act in relation to Mr William Yan....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Conservatives will abolish Parole – McVicar
    The Conservative Party Justice Spokesman says that one of his first tasks when he gets to Parliament will be to overhaul the Parole system. On current polling and the fact he is ranked No 3 on the Conservative Party list...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • ONE News & Facebook – Election Coverage Collaboration
    Auckland - ONE News and Facebook are collaborating to offer an interactive and social experience for the 2014 General Election utilising data insights and trends. This collaboration provides a new way for the electorate and candidates to share their...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Vote Compass Reaches 200,000+ Respondents
    On Friday 22 August the total number of respondents to Vote Compass reached an impressive 200,000 - and that number continues to grow rapidly (the total was more than 204,500 as of 5.00pm Sunday 24th)....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Climate Policies Commit to Single Most Important Reform
    Labour’s response to climate change includes the single most important reform required - a Carbon Budgeting process and a Climate Commission to drive it....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Foodies come out for a CAN DO government
    Wellington culinary celebrities will be joining the call for a “can-do government” and supporting “can-do people getting out to vote” as they help build the beehive out of cans tomorrow....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Nicky Hagar – Auckland Public Meeting
    A public meeting meeting with Jesson Prize winner Nicky Hagar will be held Wednesday 27th August, 7.30pm, at the Mt Eden War Memorial Hall (Cnr Dominion Rd & Balmoral Rd)....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Remote Pacific atoll challenge lures Christchurch planner
    How do you come up with an urban development plan for a city which consists of tiny islets connected by causeways located in a remote Pacific atoll and subject to flooding on the next king tide?...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
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