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Of polls and elections

Written By: - Date published: 11:07 am, May 26th, 2014 - 116 comments
Categories: david cunliffe, election 2014, john key, labour, national - Tags: ,

Last night’s dual Colmar Brunton Reid Research poll releases have some on the right suggesting that the election is a formality and all that National needs to do to win is turn up. They should rethink their optimism.  Because the election is incredibly close and anything can happen.

Before anyone accuses me of blind optimism I note that this is also the view of John Key.  They should also think about the following:

  1.  I am convinced there is an inbuilt right bias in polls.  There were too many “National will rule alone” poll results before the last election which did not reconcile with the actual result.  Rob Salmond and Danyl McLaughlan have analysed the situation for a while with more expertise than I have.  I will state with some confidence that National will poll under 50% at the next election.
  2.  The poll results include the budget week bounce that Governments generally enjoy.  Last year the Colmar Brunton poll for the same period showed an impressive 6% bounce in support for the Government.  Budget week should be the Government’s week.  And National’s attempt to make itself look like Labour has obviously had a beneficial effect on its support.  The Colmar Brunton poll data was collected from May 17 to 21, immediately after the budget had been delivered and away from the time of the Judith Collins troubles.  The Reid Research poll from last year did not show the same bounce but my impression of Reid Research polls are that they are erratic.

Having said this the biggest threat for Labour for the election is the sense of optimism there is concerning the economy.  The right track wrong track trend is suggesting that overall people are happy with the way the economy is going.  They have reason to be happy in that there is growth and unemployment is declining albeit slowly.  Of course this recovery is built on a foundation of sand and is dependent on the need to rebuild our second largest city and large scale borrowing only possible because Helen Clark and Michael Cullen had effectively paid off the Crown’s debt in 2008.

National’s approach to economic management is a temporary solution only.  One day the country will have to wake up and start paying the debt back.

Voters should not confuse borrow and spend with a sound economic policy.  Currently sufficient of them are prepared to give National an economic credibility it frankly does not deserve.

And David Cunliffe has acknowledged that he needs to convey to the population what sort of person he is.  He has worked hard on the policy aspect of the job but people do need to have a sense of who he is if they are going to vote for him.  Soft media will be vital.  John Campbell’s recent visit to David’s home is the sort of thing he will need more of.

We now are 117 days from the next election.  Decent recent setbacks the polls are in a better position for the left than they were three years ago.  My sense is that this election will go down to the wire.

116 comments on “Of polls and elections”

  1. George 1

    Yeah, but Labour doesn’t have a convincing way to explain the twenty point gap.

    They were offered one.

    • Clemgeopin 1.1

      It is no longer a FPP system of election or Government! It is MMP. Duh! You got to look at it in terms of the right block and the left block

    • Paul 1.2

      There isn’t a 20 percent gap.

      • George 1.2.1

        There is a twenty point gap.

        If Labour can’t communicate to the average voter how they’re going to form the next government.

        The Greens offered them a way to do that (far short of a formal coalition – a non-aggression pact). It’s harder to do that without this solid connection.

        • poem 1.2.1.1

          There isn’t a twenty point gap. Labour has made their position quite clear, that the Greens will, no doubt, be part of a labour led government. That’s enough. Let the voters have their say first. No deals should be done before then. National and NZ First are also refusing to be drawn om coalition deals.

  2. Enough is Enough 2

    Micky – Not many on the right are suggesting this is a formality. It you have followed the rhetoric of Key and English in the past fortnight to their support base, the key message is lets not complacent.

    They are firing up their war machine now with a bucket load of resources. The PR spin and Crosby Textor influenced marketing will hit us hard soon.

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      The Right aren’t suggesting this is a formality because it’s not, their internal polling says so, and these guys can certainly count. HOWEVER, the Right do definitely think they could still pull this one out of the fire and win. We’ll see. (They will definitely need Winston’s help).

      • lprent 2.1.1

        That Winston support is really going to really really gut that large faction of the National party and support base that they managed to demonise NZFirst to over the last decade or two.

        My sadistic streak almost wishes that it would happen. It’d be like a moving trainwreck for both National and NZ First.

        • The Real Matthew 2.1.1.1

          You’re presuming Winston gets over the 5% threshold.

          Like the overall result I’m expecting this to be much closer than expected.

          • Tracey 2.1.1.1.1

            isnt there likely to be some in the middle who wontvote labour but want national gone, thats winston territory… 5% is not even all the undecided in the latest poll.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Winston will clear 5% easy. The biggest problem with NZF is though is that it remains the Winston Peters party. Without him, they will poll at the margin of error.

              • Tracey

                part of me wishes the nats would go into coalition with nzf, watch the shitfight and attend the fresh election one year later…

                • Colonial Viper

                  If there was a cinema or computer simulation version I’d be all for it, unfortunately putting the entire nation through it for real is just too cruel…

                • Tracey

                  yup

                  • The Real Matthew

                    CV & Tracey I’m not so convinced on Winston this time around.

                    The conventional wisdom with Winston is not to write him off but I feel he has lost some of his majic. His claims under parliamentary priviledge get more and more fanciful and he is scoring less hits than in previous terms.

                    I agree there is a constituency there for the Winston vote but The Conservatives will eat into it and with NZ First non-committal about co-alition partners the anti-Key vote may find another box to tick.

        • geoff 2.1.1.2

          Farrar will be shitting himself.

          • Tracey 2.1.1.2.1

            regular colonics for his health, one with each poll?

            • geoff 2.1.1.2.1.1

              Let’s just say that if National has to have a coalition with Winston then it could well mean the end of the gravy train for the penguin.

        • Gosman 2.1.1.3

          Unless they move to support ACT, in which case what does it matter to National?

          • Tracey 2.1.1.3.1

            epsom is act if the beloved leader hints it. But i doubt one seat will do it for the coalition of the right and the wierdoes this time.

            • Gosman 2.1.1.3.1.1

              It provides a bolt hole for any disenchanted National party supporters who are against any deal with Winston.

              • Tracey

                How many times have ACT got over 5% and in what circumstances?

                • Gosman

                  Once as far as I am aware but so what considering it is irrelevant about the 5% threshold if they retain Epsom.

                  • Tracey

                    once is right but you suggest national is popular so no drift from nats to act. of course act gets epsom… but not above 2% party vote no matter how much you love the hard right tail that has wagged the tail.

      • Enough is Enough 2.1.2

        I am not so sure about that.

        We seem to be under this belief that the polls favour the right on the basis that the last election result had National poll well below what the media polls were telling us in the week leading up to the election.

        There were also 800,000 odd people who didn’t vote last time and we are again under the belief that they would have voted left if they had got out of bed.

        Is there no correlation between the 2011 media polls, National’s lower election result, and the missing 800,000 voters.

        I am worried. Very worried. Yet everyone here seems to have the attitude of she’ll be right. Business as usual. It is a very worrying attitude to have when our leader is so unpopular so close to the election..

        • mickysavage 2.1.2.1

          My own belief is that there is an inbuilt bias in the polls. I do not see how the sampling can work to correct for landline based polls. I have many, many clients out west who do not have a landline and rely only on cellphone for communication.

          At the same time lefty supporters are over all less likely to vote. Being marginalised and/or young means that you are less likely to exercise your democratic rights. Turnout is crucial.

          David’s preferred PM polling is no different to Helen’s was at the start of her reign as leader of the opposition. He enjoys campaigns and I am sure that support for him will rise as more people get to meet him.

          • Enough is Enough 2.1.2.1.1

            I like your optimism Greg, but I have not seen any hard evidence in respect of what you claim. I haven’t even seen any soft evidence. It seem to be only anecdotes about our left leaning mates not having landlines.

            I am not saying my proposition above is correct but it has as much credibility at this stage as the lefties don’t have landlines argument.

            Helen was not this unpopular 4 months before the first election that she won, or even the two that she lost.

          • The Lone Haranguer 2.1.2.1.2

            I am sure that the Labour vote will grow when Cunliffe et al turn up on the TV on a regular basis during the election campaign. What I am unsure of is whether the Labour vote will come from a soft Nat base or from the Greens and Winston. Face it, neither side can trust Winston but both sides are likely to need him to form a Government.

            Certainly the swinging votes for Labour wont come from Act or the Conservatives.

            Im picking the election result will come down to a 51/49 split from right to left on election night. Or maybe 51/49 from left to right. Its nothing like a foregone conclusion that some may claim.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1.2.1

              The problem is that a Labour led coalition with a razor thin 2-3 seat majority will likely only last one term.

          • Gosman 2.1.2.1.3

            What was Helen Clark’s prefered PM polling in 1999 though?

            • You_Fool 2.1.2.1.3.1

              About the same as Cunliffe’s will be in 2017, after we have suffered through a government formed and run similar to the train-wreck of a 96-99 National government. National will poll somewhere around the lows 10’s as well…. Not that there will be much left for us to govern after they have wrecked it all…

          • mpledger 2.1.2.1.4

            When I was involved in land-line surveys, we used to take mobile phones out to non-landline households. Finding the non-landline household is a bit of a pain though. And it’s not cheap.

          • Melb 2.1.2.1.5

            And plenty of my National-voting mates and I don’t have landlines either. It’s all anecdata.

            David’s preferred PM polling is no different to Helen’s was at the start of her reign as leader of the opposition.

            Oh good. So John Key to win in 2017 as well?

    • mickysavage 2.2

      If you read latest posts on Kiwiblog and Whaleoil the tenor is quite clear. And comments here and on those sites suggest some think that a National win is inevitable.

      • Clemgeopin 2.2.1

        The undecided in the TV1 was 7.2% I think. Not sure if I am correct. Also, I do not know what the undecided % was in the TV3 poll. Do any of you know?

        • Puddleglum 2.2.1.1

          The ‘Refused’ or ‘Don’t Know’ in the latest Colmar Brunton poll was 17%.

          Only 755 people answered that question with the name of a party – which was considerably lower than most of their other polls apart from the immediately preceding one, which had 767 people answer. The earlier polls had 862, 840, 820 and 834 people answer that question positively (with the name of a party). I’m not sure why there was a slump in their response rate for this question in the latest two polls.

          I don’t know the TV3 poll equivalent statistic.

          • Clemgeopin 2.2.1.1.1

            Thanks very much. It is irritating not knowing how many are still undecided. That is an important information. I think it must be made mandatory in their code for poll companies to report that piece of information, because otherwise we don’t easily know if 0% or 2% or 20% or 60% are still undecided!

            • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1.1.1

              political poll minimum standards and regulations – good idea. Including no polling activity to be conducted in the 10 days before election day, giving the electorate a clear week to consider the issues, not polling number nonsense.

      • lprent 2.2.2

        Lets hope that they carry on thinking so. Last election the National-led coalition scraped in with a single seat and with a hydra of four parties in the coalition. This time around there is a good probability that two or possibly even three of those partners will not be in parliament after the election.

        Last time around National was polling 55% or more on the TV polls in the months approaching the election, and they got 47%. That was with a pretty lacklustre Labour campaign.

        This time at best they peaking at 51%. I and anyone with any brains thinks that they will get well less than 45%. They it looks like Labour is getting a lot better at putting the campaign together. I can see why National would really like to trigger a disruptive leadership debate inside Labour at present and why we are seeing the usual attempts.

        Boring – seen this crap many times before.

        The way it is looking at present, I don’t think that even bribing Winston onboard can save the Nats from opposition periods

        • Anne 2.2.2.1

          I can see why National would really like to trigger a disruptive leadership debate inside Labour at present and why we are seeing the usual attempts.

          Worth having a listen to today’s RNZ political spot. Hooton’s attempt to paint Cunliffe as the evil coup perpetrator, and Shearer the innocent victim was quite an act. Ryan resignedly interrupted in the end because she’s heard it all before. She might just as well have said it aloud… oh God here we go again!

          • Kat 2.2.2.1.1

            And on Morning Retort Key said its ‘actually’ the centre right bloc against the far left bloc. Pretty rich from someone who has just announced free doctors visits for under 13yrs and extended paid parental leave. This is the blatant nonsense that goes unchallenged by the MSM.

      • Enough is Enough 2.2.3

        I would be happy if the Nats were that complacent Micky, I don’t think they are though.

        I am more concerned with the general attitude from the left on this site whereby no one seems too concerned with these poll results.

        Lets for a second assume the polls are an accurate portrayal of how the public vote. I am afraid some around here lack the urgency and motivation required to take these Tories on. If we made that assumption they might become a bit more urgent and stop being so relaxed about one of the most important elections in a generation.

        A Labour party polling below 35% is a fucking disaster and we need to reverse now. At the moment we are well below even that level of support.

        • Colonial Viper 2.2.3.1

          There are many significant disconnects between the Labour Party as it exists today, and the electorate. This is evidenced by 6 years of Tory rule, huge youth unemployment and child poverty, economic stagnation and highly unpopular asset sales, and in the last few months a tonne of scandals…and Labour still sits on the low 30’s.

          But its too late to solve those fundamental problems now, now is simply the time to get out there, campaign and maximise turnout.

          • Enough is Enough 2.2.3.1.1

            That is what I cannot get my head around. National is so popular notwithstanding the list of issues with the country that you have noted and the unpopular policies like asset sales that they have rolled out.

            In spite of all that Labour is as close to the Green as they are to National.

            • Clemgeopin 2.2.3.1.1.1

              I think there are several reasons for this: (Broadly speaking),

              *Key has managed to be very affable in his public dealings and TV appearances.
              *He has kept a tight rein on his caucus.
              *National’s spin machine is efficient no matter what the real truth is.
              *MSM in NZ by and large is lazy, superficial, un-investigative, in its journalism, news and commentary.
              * Voters have a short memory generally, in spite of record opposition to asset sales, GCSB affairs, Communication snooping, political corruption scandals etc
              * Many people are barely interested in politics, daily news or issues that matter.
              * By copying or stealing left social policies, National is trying to hide its real right agenda.
              * When people earn good income, they tend to get selfish and scared of socialist policies.
              * People do not discern the long term harm to society from the evils of uncontrolled capitalism, scant protection of environment etc
              * The left vote is divided between Labour, Greens, Maori and Mana. National has no competition, except the hardly registering, non performing ACT, UF and CONS.
              * Labour is yet to announce many policies and sweeteners, obviously closer to the election to get better traction and publicity. Otherwise, people forget. I am sure many have vague memories of some of the already announced policies such as, for example,
              Best Start for all Kiwi kids, NZ Power, Forestry, KiwiAssure, Affordable and Healthy Homes, Job creation, Education initiatives, Health measures etc.

        • Clemgeopin 2.2.3.2

          How do you expect the posters here to help change the polls? What do you propose we do?

          I think the onus is on the Labour party organisation and hierarchy to bring out strong appealing, sensible, fair, exciting policies and get plenty of exposure and publcity (if MSM give that!). Bold policies that will make people sit up and take notice. Apart from that, volunteer party/election work on the streets. I am hoping those things will follow. Four months is actually a long time in politics.

          Tell us your solution.

        • Kat 2.2.3.3

          What more can you expect from polls taken largely in areas such as Remuera and Epsom. The big poll is September 20th, if the turnout is high Labour has a chance. Until then poll bias will continue to favour National.

    • Tiger Mountain 2.3

      Yep the tory shit sprayer is about to employ turbo boost and nitrous. Guyon E’Spinner and the rest of the media toadies have fresh suppositories in place and are raring to go.

      The thing with the polls is that they consistently ignore or misrepresent undecideds and under MMP it will be very close whatever National is allegedly polling. Is every second car I see really filled with unpleasant dark kiwis or imbeciles?

  3. Gosman 3

    On the question in inbuilt bias on poll results do you not think the polling companies have a commercial incentive to remove this as a large anount of the credibility is based on how accurate they are?

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      The polling companies are doing a job, and that job is not necessarily providing accurate polling on the state of the nation.

    • lprent 3.2

      ….do you not think the polling companies have a commercial incentive to remove this as a large anount of the credibility is based on how accurate they are?

      The political polls are a tiny proportion of their main business, most of which is about finding out what products are going down well with consumers. The political polls appear to primarily be done as a form of publicity, and are clearly done with a very limited degree of accuracy. They’d use larger sample sizes otherwise.

      Why would you think that they have a commercial incentive to make a publicity device more accurate? It isn’t exactly a feature of advertising for any company

      • Gosman 3.2.1

        They would have a greater incentive to be more accurate if this was the case as the political polls are like the advertisements for the rest of their business. They would be losing credibility with potential purchasers of their services if they were wildly inaccurate. That is not to state there isn’t any bias mind you just that the polling companies should be interested in removing it if it was a large as some would like to believe.

        • lprent 3.2.1.1

          They aren’t wildly inaccurate. Why would you say that? Micky didn’t, nor did I.

          The polls are merely inaccurate, and the accuracy can be improved easily with technique and the application of more money than the networks are willing to supply for a low cost advertising poll (that gets them a news story).

          Under normal circumstances, this kind of inaccuracy in a political poll doesn’t matter. But this election like the last two is going to be close between the right and left blocs.

          …just that the polling companies should be interested in removing it if it was a large as some would like to believe.

          So who exactly is saying that it is “large” for all of the polls. I see in the post that one polling company, the Reid ones, were identified as having results that appear to be outside the margins of error.

          Why are you smearing the other polls who merely seem to have a systematic bias within the bounds of the margins of error?

          • Gosman 3.2.1.1.1

            If they are not wildly inaccurate then what are we worried about here? Unless you think the polls should show the election is a shoe in for the left when it is showing instead that it is very tight indeed and could go either way. If Labour was confident that was the case then it surely should just continue to do what it is doing as it is on track for forming the next government quite easily.

            • Colonial Viper 3.2.1.1.1.1

              The polls are just part of the PR/marketing spin for the Right. They are effective in that regard eg. in fulfilling their aims of suppressing voter turnout for the Left.

              • Gosman

                How does this control by the right over the polls actually work? Are people belonging to these polling companies being told by some right leaning person in power to ignore proper techniques in generating a poll and just get results that are favourable to the right? If so how would you explain the times when the left led in the same polls in the past (e.g. in the early to mid 2000’s)?

                • Tracey

                  have you been called by a polling company? We get a few calls every election year. The media dont report all questions asked.

                  I assume you are being deliberately obtuse regarding polling techniques and so point you to this to assist.

                  http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=kp&v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

                • How does this control by the right over the polls actually work?

                  How it works is less important than that it exists. Danyl’s bias-adjusted tracking poll (not ‘his’ exactly, but he publishes it) is based on several elections’ worth of evidence that most polls over-estimate National’s support and underestimate Winston First’s support. Whatever the reasons for its existence, the bias exists.

                  • Phil

                    is based on several elections’ worth of evidence that most polls over-estimate National’s support and underestimate Winston First’s support.

                    Unfortunately, the narrative people have used to explain the over-estimate for National runs completely contrary to everything we know about NZF supporters. Namely: Old white people disproportionately respond to polling.

                    My gut feeling is that in 2011 the Nats lost support to NZF in the last few days of the election, as Winston ramped up the tea-tapes rhetoric. The polling companies, who generally poll over a week or two, wouldn’t have seen the full impact because it was happening so quickly, os late in the game.

                    • That might explain 2011, but the original of Danyl’s bias-adjusted graph shows the same effect in the 2008 election and to a lesser extent in 2005. I’ve no idea what mechanism might account for it – as you say, Bomber’s favourite (yoofs and the poor don’t have landlines) certainly wouldn’t result in NZF being underrepresented – but it’s definitely there.

                    • Phil

                      2005 looks roughly right for the four major parties. The clustering of polling before the election isn’t wildly out of whack with the final result. You could certainly build a narrative that the EB fiasco in the last week(s) of the campaign damaged National and their election result suffered relative to the late polling data (just like 2011 and the tea-tapes).

                      2008 looks worse on the chart than I suspect was the true polling situation. You can see that National’s polling results did suffer in the last couple of months and, as I’ve noted at the Dim-Post a couple of times the trend line might implicitly hold on to old poll data for a little bit too long when it’s calculating the true level of support.
                      Another way of putting it is this: if you get rid of the trend line (because it’s a visual anchor that our brains subconsciously focus on) and just look at a series of dots, the National result looks less markedly out of whack – still overstated, but less than implied in the chart.

                      There may also be a kind of reverse ‘Bradley effect’ as well, where people are too embarrassed to say they support NZF and instead say they support National . I have no basis for this, but it’s a possibility.

              • Skinny

                Maybe some ‘shock into voting treatment is in order’

                Like a YouTube video, a mock up scene of get out to vote door knockers dragging some young punk non voters out of their house and flogging them for being so slack.

                I wonder if that will work?

          • Melb 3.2.1.1.2

            So any whispers of what Labour’s internal polling is showing? Surely they’d be paying the money to get this greater accuracy.

    • mpledger 3.3

      But you can’t tell how accurate they are until the election date. And even then the pollsters have an out – too many people didn’t vote, the undecideds made a difference.

      One firm in the US would purposefully over sample Republicans and then as the election got near it would even out the sampling so it would look like what they were doing was correct. The point of their polling wasn’t to find the truth but to reinforce positive Republican sentiment.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    And David Cunliffe has acknowledged that he needs to convey to the population what sort of person he is. He has worked hard on the policy aspect of the job but people do need to have a sense of who he is if they are going to vote for him. Soft media will be vital.

    The month after Conference in Christchurch last year was when the soft media machine should have gone into top gear and simply stayed there for months until hard nosed electioneering season hit.

    • Enough is Enough 4.1

      Exactly. It is fucking incredible that we are still noting these things 9 months after he was appointed and only weeks before the election.

  5. Clemgeopin 5

    Good and fair analysis there.

    It is a little amusing to see the National/ACT dudes today being as happy as clams and clowns after these latest polls. They might as well enjoy the exuberance to their heart’s content now just like the hapless Humpty Dumpty before the coming great fall on Sept 20!

    Voters seem to be thrilled at the National’s ‘extending paid parental leave and free doctor’s visits’! They will begin to realise that those are the policies that are inspired by the opposition parties, Labour, Greens, NZF and Mana! So actually, National has paid a tribute to the opposition by copying such policies. The voters are not all fools. They will begin to acknowledge and shift their support away from National in the coming weeks. Four months is a long time before the actual elections. More policies are yet to come from Labour and other parties. The present spike in National is simply the immediate reaction to the budget lollies. Won’t last.

    MY PREDICTION OF ELECTION RESULT BASED ON POLLS SO FAR:

    Based on the recent four polls and from past experience of the disparity between the pre-election polls and the actual election results, here is my estimate/calculation/prediction/gut feeling of the probable party vote for various parties, rounded to whole numbers:

    NATIONAL………..=42%
    LABOUR…………..=32%
    GREENS…………..=12%
    NZ FIRST…………..=7%
    CONSER…………..=2%
    INTRNET…………..=2%
    MAORI……………..=1%
    MANA………………=1%
    ACT…………………=0%
    UF…………………..=0%
    Other(Rounded)….=1%

    • Gosman 5.1

      Excellent. We should just do away with professional pollsters and use your finger in the air method instead. Looks like the election is already in the bag for the left. No need to worry about anything then.

      • Clemgeopin 5.1.1

        No, but my prediction is based on the polls of the professional pollsters!

        • Gosman 5.1.1.1

          No, you prediction is based on your largely uneducated opinion about the polls of the professional pollsters

          • Clemgeopin 5.1.1.1.1

            You can’t prove your uneducated statement until Sept 20, though. Wait till that time before you pontificate.

            • Kimbo 5.1.1.1.1.1

              Not going to take you own advice, then?

              • Ben Adam

                I am confident of my projection. You can wait till Sept 20 to see if I am wrong.

                • Kimbo

                  Yeah, Nah.

                  Sorry – I’ve got better things to do with my time than file away and then diarise to check your oracles to see if you qualify as the Nostradamus of New Zealand politics. Nothing personal, but life is too short to waste…

    • Colonial Viper 5.2

      I think Labour 32% to 35% represents the “95% confidence interval” of where the final result will fall. For the Greens this will be more like 11.0% to 13.5%.

      National final result will lie between 40% and 44% methinks.

      Winston 6% to 7% seems very likely too. If he stays consistent and keeps pushing, there is a reasonable chance that he will end up king maker.

      Question – will Labour have Hone in a coalition or will MANA be left out in the cold.

      • Skinny 5.2.1

        Hone is far too loose to have in Government, I really think Davis could unseat him and perhaps Annette Sykes wins against Favell to lead Mana.

    • Roy 5.3

      I wouldn’t count on voters noticing anything :-( A lot of them haven’t noticed yet that John Key is a liar.

  6. Ant 6

    They really just need to pull together as a team and just avoid the mistakes for a decent period of time which will include exercising a bit of discipline for once.

    It will always be a hard task for Labour to make headway because as the Taurima episode showed people who aren’t even candidates yet can cause crap stories about Labour to be run. There is still some dumb shit happening, like the woman who tweeted crap about Cunliffe becoming a candidate, but that is the downside of a democratic party I suppose.

    A party run like a business like the Nats will always have stricter comms most of the time, but really what’s the point of Labour if it is run like that?

    • Anne 6.1

      There is still some dumb shit happening, like the woman who tweeted crap about Cunliffe becoming a candidate,

      What was that all about Ant? I don’t do twitter.

  7. Jackal 7

    In this neck of the woods I’m finding it somewhat difficult to locate anybody who’s going to vote for a continuation of John Key’s government. Where are they?

    Perhaps National’s voters are just unwilling to say they support a regime that’s undermining New Zealand’s core values like home ownership, good jobs and a healthy environment. Like first division lotto winners, people who openly support National are few and far between.

    I guess most right-wingers don’t have much conviction in their beliefs, especially when challenged with some facts…and let’s face it; there really isn’t any good reason to give the neoliberal’s another term in power.

  8. red blooded 8

    Cunliffe’s media strategy is improving, but his team did not come as a packaged deal and have taken time to fit together and build momentum. This needed to be a stronger focus of his thinking and planning while campaigning for the leadership. I know that he put the media manager for Shearer on paid leave as soon as he took office and for quite a time made do without a manager. I guess this was partly a result of the muddle around the change of leader, but it also saw a communications black hole develop for too long after the change (& silly errors like the mismanaged announcement from the last conference).

    Anyway, there is certainly a need for urgency but nobody’s interests are served by panic. Having said that, don’t let’s assume that Key is being honest when he says he’s not taking a 3rd term for granted. People here (rightly) suspect his motives on other matters yet seem very ready to swallow his line about this. He’s a strong tactician and he doesn’t want to look too arrogant. After all, he wants all his voters out on the day, not sitting complacently at home.

    • Skinny 8.1

      Cunliffe reminds me of a fox, it’s that squinty look, I suggest plastic surgery or a strong dose of Botox to freeze them roundish, temporarily till after the election.

  9. Ad 9

    Whether the polls are slightly biased or not is irrelevant. They are bloody depressing, and over too long.

    The Labour Party needs to hold its campaign launch sooner rather than later.
    I appreciate that there will be the usual launch event in Wellington.
    But it’s not enough. Cunliffe needs to act fast to turn around the sense that New Zealand needs to know him before they can like him. The little regional visits haven’t been effective, nor the soft media profile. We need regional launch events.

    The activists can’t go on getting relentless demands for more activism, doing more telephone polling and fundraising, without something fun and confident to celebrate. I have yet to figure out what Labour Central headquarters is doing – because there is no visible energy from the machine other than sorting out candidates.

    We need momentum and enthusiasm, in order to respond to the accelerating demands to come. Because at the moment it’s just bloody depressing.

    • Anne 9.1

      +1 Ad.

    • Will@Welly 9.2

      Whoever is behind David Cunliffe’s strategy needs shooting. You need to win the campaign, not come a distant second. Time to announce “Game on.” National did so back in December.

  10. rich the other 10

    The polls are spot on , here’s an example of why.
    The protest outside Key’s home , it’s helping Key and damaging the left .
    The current political judgement being shown by the left seems to be very poor .

    I suspect these people are playing into Nationals hands and will generate a good deal of sympathy for Key and his family .
    Keep this up and watch the Nat’s go even further ahead in the polls.

    • Naturesong 10.1

      Because involving New Zealand in the US extrajudicial assassination program is a vote winner?

      If that’s the case, we really are fucked – that’s we, New Zealand (politics is not a football game where my team is ahead of yours, it’s what dictates the direction of the nation)

      Killing innocent people as a by product of assassination without trial is how you create terrorism, not how you fight it.

      • Roflcopter 10.1.1

        You lost that message the minute you decided to sit outside the PM’s house… simple.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1.1.1

          Are you such a moron that you can’t distinguish between John Minto and the wider left? Are you responsible for Kyle Chapman?

        • Ant 10.1.1.2

          I agree, most of the electorate find the personalisation of protesting to the extent where it is right outside someones house as distasteful. It just has the perception of being the activity of crazies.

          Also for better or for worse people don’t hate Key enough for it to go down well, if anything they’ll feel more empathy for him.

      • Jackal 10.1.2

        +1 @ Naturesong. There is absolutely nothing wrong with peaceful protest. In fact it is one of the best ways to effect change.

        • Kimbo 10.1.2.1

          Hmm. Not an opinion shared by Norman Kirk. He considered protests invariably alienated and angered those whose support they are meant to mobilise, and they are a self-indulgent waste of energy when more constructive and mature ways should be employed to effect change.

          But then what did Big Norm know?

          • Tracey 10.1.2.1.1

            or gandhi

            • Kimbo 10.1.2.1.1.1

              Gandhi campaigned in a situation where representative democracy didn’t exist, and so that it could.

              Kirk did.

              • Clemgeopin

                Protest works well everywhere, especially in a democracy, highlighting the issue garnering publicity and further support.
                It is much harder to do in authoritarian states. Sometimes, it works there too but at great cost, including lives, freedom and property.

                • Kimbo

                  Works well everywhere? So the possibility (read probability given that the Sue Bradfords, Hone Harawiras on John Mintos of this world are REJECTED by 99% of the electorate when they actually run for office) that protests and protestors can do more damage than good for their cause doesn’t enter into your plausibility structure?

                  Fair enough. Ya pays yer money and takes yer pick.

                  • Clemgeopin

                    That is not the fault of the protesters that have concern for certain issues, but the fault of any one or more characteristics of the docile, trusting, lazy, uncaring, selfish, unthinking, uninterested and/or complacent people.

                    • Kimbo

                      Ah, the humility, self-awareness and calm and measured perspective of the protest movement illustrated in one post.

                      And they wonder why the “silent majority” holds them in mutual contempt.

          • Jackal 10.1.2.1.2

            Do you have a link to back up this assertion Kimbo? Norman Kirk dispatching a frigate to Mururoa to halt nuclear testing kind of shows he supported peaceful protest.

            • Kimbo 10.1.2.1.2.1

              A timely question given the recent publication of ‘The Mighty Totara’. One of the sources used by David Grant was “The Diary of the Kirk Years” by Kirk’s secretary, Margaret Hayward (published in 1981). In it she clearly outlined Kirk’s objection to loud, intrusive, undignified protest – as was typical of the anti-Springbok and Vietnam examples of the late 1960 and early 1970s, and which sum up succinctly the effort in Parnell last night that was the subject of my post.

              It wasn’t that Kirk didn’t sympathise with many of the causes that had become increasingly fashionable to protest about, often illegally, in that era. In many cases he did. But he was also sensitive to bringing people with him rather than alienating and antagonising. And I have little doubt what he would have thought of the targeting of a politician’s family home. Don’t believe me? Read Hayward’s book.

              Which is why, when Kirk did send the frigate to Mururoa in 1973, it was a restrained, creative, and dignified action. In contrast to the Fri, a CND yacht that led a flotilla of private protest vessels at the same time, Kirk ordered NO illegal or antagonistic entry by the Otago into French territorial waters. Indeed, when the Fri was boarded by the French for breaching international law, Kirk made very sure NO assistance or attempts to intervene were made, in order to differentiate the official New Zealand government action from others.

              Kirk would have also let the 1973 Springboks tour New Zealand IF the Vorster government had allowed for a merit-selected South African team and mixed race trials. He also had contempt for the illegal activity and threats of HART, particularly Trevor Richards, and the burning down of a Papakura club rugby grandstand in the lead-up to his decision to ask the NZRFU to cancel the tour. Indeed, given Big Norm’s firm stance on law-and-order, his decison was made ultimately not BECAUSE of HART, but IN SPITE of it.

              Plenty of lessons in Hayward’s book for the modern Labour Party if it was interested in knowing why floating voters are almost always repelled by loud and confrontational protest and political parties that do not cleraly differentiate themselves from it…

              http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8545352/Protests-the-start-of-the-end-of-apartheid

  11. captain hook 11

    the nats are crowd followers. at the moment they all running after a winner but the momentum will shift pretty soon. I see gooseman is back. The National Party obviously dont pay him overtime to hang round here in the weekends.

  12. dave 12

    as a voter national is offering me nothing . unafforble cost of living, no wage rises, an economy with permanent high unemployment, unpayable levels of debt and an uncerten future. thanks for the brighter future!!!!!!!!!!

    • infused 12.1

      Low unemployment… unplayable levels of debt? Please. Skill up and get yourself a wage wise. Does the govt have to wipe your ass too?

  13. “There is no presence of the American columns in the city of Baghdad at all. We besieged them and we killed most of them.”

    • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1

      “National can govern alone.”

      • poem 13.1.1

        How? Despite the vote rigging cup of tea with john banks, despite all the media hype, despite all the hype of polls, national couldn’t managed it last time, and they have done some pretty bad things to NZ and its people since then. You have underestimated the masses, AND MMP. And before you launched into a spiel on polls, who said the polls are true? they were wrong last time. john key and national did NOT get the level of support the polls were touting, and national did not govern alone either.

  14. Philj 14

    xox
    Polls are a bit like statistics, open to fiddling.
    Now that we are all experiencing the brighter future I can’t wait for what lies ahead. Hopefully Radio New Zealand National will improve, it can’t sink much lower. Guyon,Suzie,Jim and Kathryn. The tone of Mourning Report has morphed into some fake US style of hype ,sensationalism and increasingly, stupidity. I.e. Guyon ” Its really cold ? ” Farmer replies ” Its called winter Guyon.” Please save me from this rubbish!

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    Mana | 07-09
  • THE DEATH OF INDEPENDENCE FOR MAORI TV
    “If what I’m hearing is true, tomorrow Maori Television Service (MTS) will dump its news programme, Te Kaea, and staff will lose their jobs” said MANA Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau, Hone Harawira “and the Minister of Maori...
    Mana | 07-09
  • Labour recommits to Pike River families
    An incoming Labour-led government will do everything possible to recover the bodies of the Pike River Miners and return them to their families, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “This tragedy and its aftermath has left the families of the 29...
    Labour | 06-09
  • Voting has started and still no tax plan or fiscal budget for voters to see
    "Even though voting for the election has already begun, National still refuses to provide any details of its proposed tax cuts. And Bill English admitted this morning that he won’t provide any specifics until after the election", Labour’s Finance spokesperson...
    Labour | 06-09
  • National’s partners’ tax plans cost at least $42 billion
    If National forms the next government its partners’ tax plans will cost the country at least $42 billion, and maybe as much as $50 billion, wreaking havoc with the books, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker. “National claims to be...
    Labour | 05-09
  • Labour: Providing more opportunities for young Kiwis
    A Labour Government will ensure every young Kiwi under the age of 20 is given the opportunity to be in work, education or training, and plans to develop a conservation apprenticeship scheme to help do that, Labour’s Youth Affairs spokesperson...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Candles out on teachers’ slice of birthday cake
    Today may be Novopay’s second birthday, but there’s little to celebrate, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Novopay has cost the taxpayer tens of millions of dollars already, and the cost is still climbing....
    Labour | 04-09
  • National’s blatant broadband pork barrelling misses the mark by a country...
    National’s blatant pork-barrelling ICT announcement today should reinforce a growing sceptical electorate’s view that they are all about the gift wrap and not the present, Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran says. “Instead of addressing the real issues - the woeful...
    Labour | 04-09
  • More evidence of the need to clean up the system
    The latest release of emails and messages between disgraced Minister Judith Collins and blogger Cameron Slater are more evidence of the urgent need to clean up politics, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. "This new evidence confirms a near constant flow...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Labour commits to stable funding for voluntary sector
    A Labour Government will establish long-term funding and streamline contract accountability for community and voluntary groups, says Labour’s spokesperson for the sector Louisa Wall. Announcing Labour’s policy for the community and voluntary sector, she said this would give much greater...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Better trained and skilled workforce under Labour
    Labour is committed to a skilled workforce that benefits businesses as well as their workers, and will increase workplace training to improve productivity and drive innovation, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Labour believes the Government should support New Zealanders into...
    Labour | 03-09
  • Labour will make renting a better option
    Labour will provide greater security of tenure for renters, and build more state and social housing, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Labour believes every kid deserves a decent start in life. That means a warm, dry and secure home....
    Labour | 03-09
  • At least 15 new taxes under National
    John Key is the last person to talk about creating taxes, presiding over a Government that has imposed at least 15 new taxes, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “John Key tried a novel line in the debate last night claiming...
    Labour | 03-09
  • Labour will strengthen New Zealand’s democracy
    A Labour Government will act quickly to protect and enhance New Zealand’s reputation as one of the most open and least corrupt countries in the world, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “The health of any democracy is improved by greater...
    Labour | 02-09
  • MANA Movement says tax cut on GST must be first priority – Minto
    “If Prime Minister John Key has money available for tax cuts then cutting GST must be the first priority”,  said MANA Movement Economic Justice Spokesperson John Minto. GST is a nasty tax on low-income families”, said Minto. “People in the...
    Mana | 02-09
  • The Maori Party’s Mana-Enhancing Relationship with National – Minto
    “First we had Cameron Slater and David Farrar backing Labour’s Kelvin Davis bid to unseat MANA Movement Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Hone Harawira.  Now we have Slater writing a pro-Te Ururoa Flavell article on his website, Whale...
    Mana | 02-09
  • There’s Only One Poll That Counts
    “One of the oldest sayings in politics is that there is only one poll that counts – the one on Election Day – and that’s the one that I am focusing on” remarked the MANA Movement candidate for Waiariki, Annette...
    Mana | 02-09
  • Local communities critical to Civil Defence
    Labour will focus on empowering New Zealand communities to be resilient in Civil Defence disasters, says Labour’s Civil Defence spokesperson Clare Curran. Announcing Labour’s Civil Defence policy, she says that Labour will work with schools, voluntary agencies and community groups...
    Labour | 02-09
  • Labour looks to long-life passports, gambling harm review
    A return to 10 year passports and a review of gambling laws are highlights of Labour’s Internal Affairs policy released today. “More than 15,000 New Zealanders signed a petition calling on the Government to revert to the 10 year system...
    Labour | 02-09
  • MANA Movement Leadership stands strong behind Internet MANA relationship
    “There is now, and always will be, a range of views about many issues within our movement and members are free to express them, but Georgina’s views on Kim Dotcom are not shared by the MANA Movement leadership or the vast majority...
    Mana | 01-09
  • Rebuilding the New Zealand Defence Force
    A Labour Government will make it a priority to rebuild the capacity of the Defence Force to carry out the tasks expected of it, says Labour’s Defence Spokesperson Phil Goff. Releasing Labour’s Defence Policy today he said the NZDF has...
    Labour | 01-09
  • Speech to Canterbury Chamber of Commerce
    Today I'm going to talk about our policy package to upgrade and grow our economy and how we turn that growth into a foundation for a decent and fair society. But first I want to address the issue of our...
    Labour | 01-09
  • Commission of Inquiry must have bipartisan support
    The Labour Party is drafting terms of reference for a Commission of Inquiry, Labour’s Shadow Attorney-General David Parker says. “It is abundantly clear there is a need for an independent Commission of Inquiry, chaired by a High Court Judge, into...
    Labour | 01-09
  • Rapid Transit to unclog Christchurch
    Labour will build a 21st century Rapid Transit system for Christchurch, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “The long delayed recovery of Christchurch hinges on a modern commuter system for the city. “We will invest $100 million in a modern rail plan...
    Labour | 31-08
  • Labour’s commitment to public broadcasting
    A Labour Government will set up a working group to re-establish a public service television station as part of our commitment to ensuring New Zealand has high quality free-to-air local content. “We will set up a working group to report...
    Labour | 31-08
  • A new deal for the conservation estate
    The health of our economy depends on New Zealand preserving and restoring our land, air, water and indigenous wildlife, says Labour’s Conservation spokesperson Ruth Dyson. Announcing Labours Conservation policy, she said that there will be a comprehensive plan to restore...
    Labour | 31-08
  • Labour’s plan to end homelessness
    Labour has a comprehensive approach to end homelessness starting with the provision of emergency housing for 1000 people each year and putting an end to slum conditions in boarding houses, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Labour believes that homelessness is not...
    Labour | 30-08
  • Labour: A smarter approach to justice
    A Labour Government will improve the justice system to ensure it achieves real public safety, provides equal access to justice and protects human rights, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Andrew Little says. “Our approach is about tackling the root causes of crime, recognising...
    Labour | 29-08
  • Bad luck National
    ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • The incredible changing John Key story on mass spying – why the Moment of...
    While the mainstream media continue to try and make the Moment of Truth about Kim’s last minute decision to prolong his battle against John Key past the election into the Privileges Committee, the reality is that the Moment of Truth...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Themes of the Campaign
    There’s one area of a political campaign that just about everyone, at some point, falls afoul of. The campaign song. I’m not sure quite why it is, but it seems to be almost impossible for political parties to come up...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • GUEST BLOG – Denis Tegg – The NSA slides that prove mass surveillance
    The evidence presented by Glenn Greenwald and Edward Snowden on The Intercept of mass surveillance of New Zealanders by the GCSB is undeniable, and can stand on its own. But when you place this fresh evidence in the context of...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • Ukraine, United Kingdom, Ireland, Scotland
    The Ukrainian civil war discomforts me. It seems to me the most dangerous political crisis since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. And it’s because of our unwillingness to examine the issues in a holistic way. We innately prefer to...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • John Key’s love affair with a straw man – the relationship intensifies
    John Key’s love affair with the straw man is now a fully-committed relationship. It’s now the first love of his life. Sorry Bronagh. Yesterday I pointed to Key’s constant assurances that there is no mass surveillance of New Zealanders by...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • A brief word on why Wendyl Nissen is a hero
    Wendyl Nissen is a hero. The sleazy black ops attack on her by Slater and Odgers on behalf of Grocery Council chief executive Katherine Rich is sick. All Nissen is doing in her column is point out the filth and...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • She saw John Key on TV and decided to vote!
    . . NZ, Wellington, 15 September – ‘Tina’* is 50, a close friend,  and one of the “Missing Million” from the last election. In fact, ‘Tina’ has never voted in her life.  Not once. In ‘Tina’s’ own words, politics has...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • Eminem sues National Party for unlawful use of ‘Lose yourself’ bhahahah...
    …ahahahahahahahaha. Oh Christ this is hilarious… National Party sued over Eminem copyright infringment US rapper Eminem is suing the National Party for allegedly breaching copyright by using his song Lose Yourself in its campaign advertisements. The Detroit-based publishers of Eminem’s...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • Are the Greens about to be snookered by a Labour-NZ First Government?
    I wrote last week that it was smart politics that the Greens pointed out they could work with National, the soft blue vote that’s looking for a home in the wake of Dirty Politics isn’t going to Labour, so the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • BLOGWATCH: Fonterra join 2Degrees and boycott Whaleoil
    In the wake of Dirty Politics, advertisers are pulling their advertising out of Whaleoil. PaknSave, Evo Cycles Pukekohe, Localist, 2 Degrees, Fertility Associates, iSentia, NZ Breast Cancer Foundation, Maori TV, Bookme.co.nz, Dobetter.co.nz and the Sound are now joined by Fonterra...
    The Daily Blog | 16-09
  • PM Key accused of allowing secret ‘spook’ cable sensors to spy on citiz...
    Pulitzer prize-winning journalist Glenn Greenwald (left) and Kim Dotcom at the “moment of truth” political surveillance meeting in Auckland last night. Image: PMW By ANNA MAJAVU of Pacific Media Watch NEW ZEALAND Prime Minister John Key has been accused of...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Fiji pre-election ‘politics’ blackout stirs media protests, frustration
    BLACKOUT DAY – Monday, day one of the “silence window” in Fiji leading up to the close of polling in the general election at 6pm on Wednesday. And this is under the draconian threat of a $10,000 fine or five...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • “Now the work of movements begins”: government corruption, media bias, ...
    I am so tired of the dirty politics of the National government, aren’t you? I am tired of John Key and his pathetic attacks on award-winning journalists who have spent their careers fighting and digging for truth and good. The...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Moment of Truth review, smoking guns and the awful coverage by the NZ msm
      There were queues unlike any the Town Hall has seen, 1000 were turned away once it became full…     …full to the rafters. The energy and atmosphere within the room was extraordinary, and it begun…   …Glenn Greenwald...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Why Maori TV’s Te Tai Tokeraou Poll will be proved wrong
    If Hone Harawira had a dollar every time the media wrote off his chance of winning Te Tai Tokeraou, he would have more money than Kim Dotcom. Remember the by-election? Hone was 1 point ahead of Kelvin in an exact...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • September 15 RNZ interviews – and then the Moment of Truth
    . Acknowledgement: Emmerson . 15 September – Leading up to the Moment of Truth public meeting this evening, these Radio NZ interviews are worth listening to; . Alt link . Alt link . Alt link . Alt link . Alt...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Live Stream: Moment of Truth Tonight 7pm
    Live Video Stream by eCast: The Daily Blog will Live Stream the Moment of Trust public meeting from 7pm. The meeting will feature Glenn Greenwald, Kim Dotcom, Robert Amsterdam, and a very special guest…...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • The proof Key lied about GCSB mass surveillance
    And we start getting to the evidence that proves Key has lied about mass surveillance. The article by Glenn Greenwald is out and it is beyond damning… Documents provided by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden show that the government worked in...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • A brief word on the Ede-Slater emails
    Every day I have rushed to read the paper to see if a breaking story on the Ede-Slater emails had broken yet. They haven’t. Day after day, where are these emails? We know Rawshark sent the emails to David Fisher...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • The email that proves Key is a liar
    This is the Email proving Key knew about Kim Dotcom before he claims he did… “We had a really good meeting with the Prime Minister. He’s a fan and we’re getting what we came for. Your groundwork in New Zealand...
    The Daily Blog | 15-09
  • Henchmen
    Henchmen...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Why it simply isn’t credible that Key stepped in and shut down the mass s...
    Key’s staggering admission that yes there was a year long business model by the GCSB to mass spy on all of NZ but  that he stepped in and shut it down after Cabinet had signed it off just sounds like make...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • John Key’s love affair with a straw man
    Politicians like putting up straw men for the purpose of self-righteously knocking them over. Prime Minister John Key has a particular straw man he loves to punch over. He raises it whenever he’s asked about mass surveillance of New Zealanders...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • John Armstrong turns on Glenn Greenwald
    Where does a mediocre journalist like John Armstrong get off attacking a journalist with the credibility of Glenn Greenwald as he has in his ridiculous column today? Armstrong has the audacity to try and play the terrorism card to justify why...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Denis Tegg – Which of John Key’s many statements on the GC...
    We already have Glenn Greenwald’s assertion on The Nation that John Key has misled New Zealanders as to whether the GCSB has engaged in mass surveillance of Kiwis. But Key has made many other statements about the GCSB’s powers and...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Election 2014: Numbers and Faces
    Democratic politics is a game of numbers and faces. How can we translate the numbers into the 120 or more faces that will be in the next Parliament? Below is my prediction of a likely result: 120 people, divided by...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Scotland the brave
    The possibility that Scotland will vote for independence this Thursday has panicked the British establishment. An unholy alliance of Tory, Labour, Liberal and corporate leaders has resorted to fear-mongering and bullying on grand scale in a last ditch effort to...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Why Key’s denials sound so off and why Dotcom’s fight is all our fight
    The shrillness of Key is the issue. His denials just too forced and rehearsed. Key has gone from Hollow Man to Shallow Man with his lashing out at Pulitzer Price winning Journalist Glenn Greenwald by calling him a ‘henchman’. This...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Letters to the Editor – Spies, Lies, Five Eyes, and other matters on a S...
    . . Sharing a few thoughts and observations with newspaper editors around the country… . from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com>to: Sunday Star Times <letters@star-times.co.nz>date: Sun, Sep 14, 2014 subject: Letter to the Editor . The Editor Sunday Star Times . Our...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • Letters to the Editor – Spies, Lies, Five Eyes, and other matters on a Su...
    . . Sharing a few thoughts and observations with newspaper editors around the country… . from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com>to: Sunday Star Times <letters@star-times.co.nz>date: Sun, Sep 14, 2014 subject: Letter to the Editor . The Editor Sunday Star Times . Our...
    The Daily Blog | 14-09
  • As TDB predicted, Labour to use universal super fund to buy back assets and...
    Greens about to be snookered again?   As The Daily Blog has pointed out several times now, Labour will use a universal super fund to buy back NZs assets in a bid to offer Winston a legacy project… Labour plans...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • A lesson in caring for our most vulnerable
    Some of the comments on this article make me sick. Because I am so very much over people who think they are better than others because things have gone their way in life and think those who aren’t as functional...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – Please vote positive
    One of the features of campaigning is the meet-the-candidates event.  As an opportunity to present policies to the voter, they aren’t the best vehicle but still serve a useful purpose.  The problem is that there are too many candidates and...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • For this who don’t vote this election
    For this who don’t vote this election...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • Where does Key get off abusing a Pulitzer prize winning Journalist like Gle...
    We are seeing the Dirty Politics PM today when Key decided the best way to counter the Glenn Greenwald claims of GCSB mass surveillance was to denigrate Greenwald… Prime Minister John Key says he will prove Glenn Greenwald’s claims by the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • Teflon Man No More
    . .   On 26 August, as Nicky Hager’s expose on New Zealand’s right wing politics hit public consciousness and confirmed our worst fears, I wrote, “Dirty Politics” has achieved more than simply revealing  unwholesome machinations between National party apparatchiks,...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • Dear mainstream media – regarding Key’s promise to resign if GCSB expos...
    Dear Mainstream media. How’s it all going? I would like to acknowledge the deep depression many members of the Press Gallery are going through as their boy Key looks less and less likely to win. I appreciate how a loss...
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • It’s official: ACT’s Jamie Whyte is several-sandwiches-and-a-salad sho...
    .   . There aren’t very many times I agree wholeheartedly with our Dear Leader – but on this occassion I believe he spoke for those 99% of New Zealanders for whom common sense is as natural as breathing air....
    The Daily Blog | 13-09
  • ‘I’ll not be intimidated … by cowards’, says Fiji death threat jour...
    Fiji Sun’s Jyoti Pratibha … death threats via fake Facebook profiles. Image: Pacific Scoop THE PARIS-based media freedom advocacy organisation Reporters Sans Frontières and the Pacific Media Centre have condemned threats and intimidation against political reporters this week covering Fiji’s...
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • Glenn Greenwald on TV3s ‘The Nation’ – Everyone remember when Key pro...
    Glenn Greenwald has just given his first NZ interview on TV3s ‘The Nation’ and what he had to say was incredibly damaging. Glenn is here for Kim Dotcom’s Moment of Truth on Monday and what he has just had to...
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • What will soft National vote do, why Colin Craig will be a focus in final w...
    In what has been the most unpredictable elections of our time, the final week promises more shocks and bombshells than World War One trench warfare. We have the media who still have the Rawshark emails that detail the Ede-Slater exchanges....
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • Would a National-Conservative Party reduce rights to an abortion? Legalise ...
    With the possibility of a Conservative-National Party coalition looming, let’s consider the impact of this new hard right religious Government on social policy. We know Conservative Party candidate Edward Saafi, believes the inability to legally bash your kids is responsible for teenage prostitution, teenage pregnancy and...
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • ACTs solution to crime – more guns?
    How insane are the ACT Party? Honestly? Their solution to crime is to arm every shop keeper with a sawn off shotgun??? “Criminals are well aware that shopkeepers are defenceless and are taking advantage of this in brutal robberies. What...
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • John Key’s gift to teenage girls…
    Yesterday I was at the MANA Movement policy release on “Predators on Poverty” in the Otahuhu Shopping Centre. Successive Labour and National governments have left vulnerable communities on their own to face these merciless thieves who prey on the poor...
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • Poverty denial – Where does National get its advice from?
    National is displaying a quite inadequate understanding of their own policies and worrying inability to respond to criticism. When John Key trots out his old, tired example of how ‘work pays’ on Morning Report this week to justify leaving 260,000...
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • Education reformers mean well, so what’s the problem?
    The thing about education reformers is that, mostly, they mean well. Whether it’s charter schools, National Standards, Teach First, or another reform, many people involved have good intentions.  They want to improve things, try something new and innovate, they say. The thing...
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • My brain hurts
    My brain hurts.  This election year has been a really long nine months.  The lies, the headlines, the spin, the policy, the chat, I am literally overloaded with information.  At times it’s been exhausting trying to keep up.  However I...
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • Slater loses Blomfield defamation case – has to pays costs & must dis...
    Great victory for Journalism today. The Defamation case Matt Blomfield took against Slater has jumped its first hurdle, Slater has been told he might be a ‘Journalist’, but he has no right to journalistic protection of his sources because there was no...
    The Daily Blog | 12-09
  • Seeing an Economic Vision
    It has been some time since my last post to TDB. I was fortunate to recently come back to NZ briefly for a bit of a break from my work in Pakistan. While my visit was super short, I took...
    The Daily Blog | 11-09
  • Conservatives Break through 5% Threshold
    Reports in today’s Dominion Post that the Conservative Party is polling at 6% in Nationals internal polling are not surprising says the Conservative Napier candidate Garth McVicar....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Hundreds of Students Turn Out for Political Debate
    With only a few days left before the general election, over 500 Victoria students packed the central Hub space on campus today to listen to a political debate on student issues organised by the Students’ Association. Victoria University of Wellington...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Ex-prisoners make most of mentoring to make most of life
    It’s not every day that an organisation triples a programme in size, but PARS Inc (formerly known as the Prisoners’ Aid and Rehabilitation Society of the Auckland District Inc) has managed to do just that with their Community Mentoring Scheme,...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Unscrupulous worker highlights why 90-days works
    Federated Farmers believes the experience of a husband and wife farming team in Taranaki underscores why the 90-days provision is so important to small businesses. “Yesterday a member called 0800 FARMING to alert us to a guy doing the rounds...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Eye to Eye Uploaded
    Leading Maori broadcaster and political commentator Willie Jackson previews Eye to Eye Uploaded, a multi-platform series of interviews that he’s aiming to put in front of media radars next year....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Party Rankings against Inequality
    Revealed: which party will do the most to reduce New Zealand’s growing inequality crisis...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Maritime Union backs change of Government
    The Maritime Union says a change of Government is required to deliver secure jobs and decent wages for New Zealand workers....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Green Party package for newborns welcomed
    16 September 2014 Media Release The New Zealand College of Midwives has welcomed a policy announced today by the Green Party which would provide a package of essential items for every newborn baby. The College is a non partisan organisation...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • ALCP Release Election Manifesto
    The Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party has released its manifesto in the lead up to the election on Saturday....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Election Daily Update #9
    John Key’s National Party appears to have received a major boost from last night’s “Moment of Truth” event, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Despite no major changes...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Eminem Publishers Sue New Zealand National Party
    Detroit-based music publishing companies sue National Party for damages for unauthorised use of song in election campaign advertising...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Parties Back Rethink of WINZ Shared Care Parenting Laws
    Overwhelming Majority of Parties Back Rethink of WINZ Shared Care Parenting Laws. Press release- Fifty Fifty Campaign, 16 September 2014 National is the only political party willing to defend the way WINZ treats separated parents who share their kids...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Parents Smacking Down Prime Minister
    "John Keys failure to deliver on his promise to change the anti-smacking law is costing National votes, and helping the Conservative Party," says Colin Craig....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Political Debate on Family Violence – Video & Audio
    The Dunedin Collaboration Against Family Violence was happy to host a political debate on Family Violence chaired by Professor Nicola Atwool of the University of Otago. Family Violence is a huge problem in our community and we invited representatives...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Greens Take Nanny State To A New Level
    Family First NZ is labelling the Green’s ‘welcome package’ for newborns policy as wasteful and misdirected. “This policy is taking ‘nanny state’ to a new level but indicates just how much the Greens want to intervene in family life,”...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • 2,100 people send message about dirty politics
    2,100 people have signed their name to a full-page open letter featuring in the New Zealand Herald this Wednesday. The letter is designed to send a message to politicians that dirty politics is an important election issue....
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Are DoC manipulating Rat Numbers?
    Ban 1080 Political Party co-leader Bill Wallace says there are serious rumours DoC has changed their rat counting technique to cover up the lack of the mythical “Rat Plague” claimed by the Department in Kahurangi National Park, and also that...
    Scoop politics | 16-09
  • Average Full time Student Is in Financial Distress
    A new survey has found that nearly half of all full time students are in significant financial distress....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Key and Cunliffe, research revealed by Ancestry.com.au
    Contrasting family histories of John Key and David Cunliffe, revealed by research from Ancestry.com.au....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Revelations a Damning Indictment of Key’s Honesty
    The Prime Minister’s honesty is now central to the election, says Internet Party Leader Laila Harré, following the revelations of whistleblower Edward Snowden that there is mass surveillance of New Zealand citizens by the GCSB....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Organisations Have ‘Duty of Care’ for Players says Law Firm
    Concussion injuries in amateur and professional sporting arenas are currently highly topical. Concussion potentially appears to have been implicit in the recent death of a young player in Northland....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Media Release from Closing the Gap on Health and Housing
    “Inequality is the biggest problem facing New Zealand at the present time” says Peter Malcolm National Secretary of Closing the Gap. It underlies many of our social ills, poverty, lack of trust, an economy that could do much better, and...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Expanding Whānau Ora – a bottom line for Māori Party
    Leaving the best to last, the Māori Party has launched its Whānau Ora policy today following a fun family event at Te Ore Ore Marae in Masterton last night. “When we change what happens in our homes, we change what...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Colin Craig’s Incredible Claims Continue
    Hot on the heels of a Conservative Party candidate proposing to double the price of a bottle of wine, Colin Craig has come up with an even more fantastic idea to buttress his uncosted tax policy....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • The Letter: Jamie Whyte is going to Parliament
    Friday night’s TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll puts Jamie Whyte in Parliament. TVNZ rounded down the poll result (ACT was on 1.2%). With the high wasted Conservative vote, just 1.2% makes Jamie an MP. It is ACT, not NZ First that...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Why are we letting Dotcom steal our election?
    Why are we letting a convicted German fraudster and his American polemicists steal our election?...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • ACT’s five point plan
    ACT has a five point plan to grow the economy by a third. To lift economic growth from the Treasury's long term forecast of just two percent to three....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Christchurch rebuild cost sharing plan must be improved
    “The agreement between the government and the Christchurch City Council about sharing costs of the rebuild is due to be revised in December, as some costs are more accurately known now than they were originally,“ says Warren Voight, Local...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • ‘Key vs. Cunliffe’ Final Live NZ Election Reactor
    ohn Key and David Cunliffe go head to head for the final time on TV One on Wednesday as Election Day looms. Roy Morgan wants to know what you think about their performance as the leaders try one last time...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Chamber welcomes Business Growth Agenda priorities
    Wellington Employers’ Chamber of Commerce welcomes the National Government’s 10 highest priorities for its Business Growth Agenda as essential to continuing strong business performance and economic growth....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • #SafeSource NZ – A secure way to share the truth
    Dirty politics and a dirty environment go hand in hand. Our country’s future as a fairer, cleaner, more prosperous place is being threatened by backroom deals, corporate cronyism and a lack of transparency....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Last vid to encourage youth vote
    Here's the third and final in our series to boost the youth vote. It's called CINDER and it's a play on the popular dating app....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Fee hikes restrict student choices
    A survey of 5000 students from across the tertiary sector shows that tuition fees have increased at the maximum level permitted. Fees are constraining students’ choices more than ever before. Although tuition fees are only permitted to increase...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • ACT’s five point plan to grow the economy
    ACT has a five point plan to double the rate of economic growth. The Treasury long term forecast for growth is 2% a year. We can lift it to 4%....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • iPredict Daily Election Update
    National’s forecast party vote has risen to 45.3% over the last day, at the expense of Labour and the Greens, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. A National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • National’s economic strategy attack workers’ rights
    The National Party’s ‘Workplaces’ policy confirms that their economic growth strategy relies on attacks on workers rights, according to FIRST Union....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Questions Raised Over Cow Deaths
    The death of 200 cows after eating a new variety of PGG Wrightsons HT swedes [1] is a disaster for New Zealand farmers....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Final decision on Ruakura Development Plan Change
    The independent Board of Inquiry considering the Ruakura Development Plan Change has released its final report and decision. The Board has approved the plan change request but with amendments....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Confirmed – Smacking Law Needs Correction
    Family First NZ says that the ONE News Vote Compass survey showing only 23% support the anti-smacking law is no surprise, and confirms that it’s time the politicians listened to New Zealand families....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Kiwi voters urged to heed warnings
    Kiwi voters would do well to note the advice given this week to Queensland people by retired judge and renowned corruption fighter Tony Fitzgerald, according to Democrats for Social Credit health spokesman David Tranter....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Fisheries policy analysis produces surprising results
    Nine political party policies were analysed to determine which party had the most public friendly fisheries policy and the results surprised LegaSea, an apolitical fisheries lobby group. “For the first time, recreational fishers have been offered...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • $3m to help keep Hutt families healthy
    National Party candidate for Hutt South, Chris Bishop, welcomes news Hutt City Council has been selected to lead a $3 million anti-obesity initiative in Lower Hutt which will help families improve their health. “Healthy Families NZ is National’s new...
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • Community organisations struggling
    The survey, conducted by community sector network ComVoices, highlights the high level of frustration and urgency being felt by those who deliver services, says group Chairperson, Peter Glensor. 311 organisations completed the survey....
    Scoop politics | 15-09
  • NZ 2014 Election Index – 6-11 September
    Below is iSentia’s weekly Election Index for the period 6 to 11 September, showing the relative amount of coverage of nine Party Leaders in the lead up to the National Election across news media and social media. We will publish...
    Scoop politics | 14-09
  • Workers despair at Nationals lack of fairness
    “Nationals Workplaces policy, released today, fails to articulate any vison about how life for working New Zealanders can be improved.” CTU President Helen Kelly said. “Again if this policy focusses on removing work rights, its own documents...
    Scoop politics | 14-09
  • National tries to dodge the discussion on workers’ rights
    New Zealanders deserve a proper conversation about National’s plans to keep undermining the real value of their wages and conditions at work. “Today National has released a ‘workplace policy’ which will further widen the imbalance of power between...
    Scoop politics | 14-09
  • Didn’t Get Your Easyvote Pack? You Need to Enrol Now.
    If you didn’t get an EasyVote pack in the mail last week, you need to check your enrolment now as you may not be enrolled....
    Scoop politics | 14-09
  • Survey shows television without adverts could be vote winner
    Survey shows television without adverts could be a vote winner Television news focuses too much on politicians' personalities and not enough on the real issues, according to a UMR survey commissioned by the Coalition for Better Broadcasting....
    Scoop politics | 14-09
  • Which of Key’s many statements will Greenwald challenge?
    John Key's credibility and honesty will be tested on many more GCSB issues than whether there was / is mass surveillance of New Zealanders by the GCSB. I have put together this by no means comprehensive list of Key's statements...
    Scoop politics | 14-09
  • 4th tranche of Auckland Housing Accord licenses sprawl
    Youth organisation, Generation Zero, is appalled at the next stage of the Auckland Housing Accord, released today, as it is once again focussed on urban sprawl. The fourth tranche of 41 Special Housing Areas (SHAs), allows for 8000 dwellings, nearly...
    Scoop politics | 14-09
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