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Of polls and elections

Written By: - Date published: 11:07 am, May 26th, 2014 - 116 comments
Categories: david cunliffe, election 2014, john key, labour, national - Tags: ,

Last night’s dual Colmar Brunton Reid Research poll releases have some on the right suggesting that the election is a formality and all that National needs to do to win is turn up. They should rethink their optimism.  Because the election is incredibly close and anything can happen.

Before anyone accuses me of blind optimism I note that this is also the view of John Key.  They should also think about the following:

  1.  I am convinced there is an inbuilt right bias in polls.  There were too many “National will rule alone” poll results before the last election which did not reconcile with the actual result.  Rob Salmond and Danyl McLaughlan have analysed the situation for a while with more expertise than I have.  I will state with some confidence that National will poll under 50% at the next election.
  2.  The poll results include the budget week bounce that Governments generally enjoy.  Last year the Colmar Brunton poll for the same period showed an impressive 6% bounce in support for the Government.  Budget week should be the Government’s week.  And National’s attempt to make itself look like Labour has obviously had a beneficial effect on its support.  The Colmar Brunton poll data was collected from May 17 to 21, immediately after the budget had been delivered and away from the time of the Judith Collins troubles.  The Reid Research poll from last year did not show the same bounce but my impression of Reid Research polls are that they are erratic.

Having said this the biggest threat for Labour for the election is the sense of optimism there is concerning the economy.  The right track wrong track trend is suggesting that overall people are happy with the way the economy is going.  They have reason to be happy in that there is growth and unemployment is declining albeit slowly.  Of course this recovery is built on a foundation of sand and is dependent on the need to rebuild our second largest city and large scale borrowing only possible because Helen Clark and Michael Cullen had effectively paid off the Crown’s debt in 2008.

National’s approach to economic management is a temporary solution only.  One day the country will have to wake up and start paying the debt back.

Voters should not confuse borrow and spend with a sound economic policy.  Currently sufficient of them are prepared to give National an economic credibility it frankly does not deserve.

And David Cunliffe has acknowledged that he needs to convey to the population what sort of person he is.  He has worked hard on the policy aspect of the job but people do need to have a sense of who he is if they are going to vote for him.  Soft media will be vital.  John Campbell’s recent visit to David’s home is the sort of thing he will need more of.

We now are 117 days from the next election.  Decent recent setbacks the polls are in a better position for the left than they were three years ago.  My sense is that this election will go down to the wire.

116 comments on “Of polls and elections”

  1. George 1

    Yeah, but Labour doesn’t have a convincing way to explain the twenty point gap.

    They were offered one.

    • Clemgeopin 1.1

      It is no longer a FPP system of election or Government! It is MMP. Duh! You got to look at it in terms of the right block and the left block

    • Paul 1.2

      There isn’t a 20 percent gap.

      • George 1.2.1

        There is a twenty point gap.

        If Labour can’t communicate to the average voter how they’re going to form the next government.

        The Greens offered them a way to do that (far short of a formal coalition – a non-aggression pact). It’s harder to do that without this solid connection.

        • poem 1.2.1.1

          There isn’t a twenty point gap. Labour has made their position quite clear, that the Greens will, no doubt, be part of a labour led government. That’s enough. Let the voters have their say first. No deals should be done before then. National and NZ First are also refusing to be drawn om coalition deals.

  2. Enough is Enough 2

    Micky – Not many on the right are suggesting this is a formality. It you have followed the rhetoric of Key and English in the past fortnight to their support base, the key message is lets not complacent.

    They are firing up their war machine now with a bucket load of resources. The PR spin and Crosby Textor influenced marketing will hit us hard soon.

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      The Right aren’t suggesting this is a formality because it’s not, their internal polling says so, and these guys can certainly count. HOWEVER, the Right do definitely think they could still pull this one out of the fire and win. We’ll see. (They will definitely need Winston’s help).

      • lprent 2.1.1

        That Winston support is really going to really really gut that large faction of the National party and support base that they managed to demonise NZFirst to over the last decade or two.

        My sadistic streak almost wishes that it would happen. It’d be like a moving trainwreck for both National and NZ First.

        • The Real Matthew 2.1.1.1

          You’re presuming Winston gets over the 5% threshold.

          Like the overall result I’m expecting this to be much closer than expected.

          • Tracey 2.1.1.1.1

            isnt there likely to be some in the middle who wontvote labour but want national gone, thats winston territory… 5% is not even all the undecided in the latest poll.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Winston will clear 5% easy. The biggest problem with NZF is though is that it remains the Winston Peters party. Without him, they will poll at the margin of error.

              • Tracey

                part of me wishes the nats would go into coalition with nzf, watch the shitfight and attend the fresh election one year later…

                • Colonial Viper

                  If there was a cinema or computer simulation version I’d be all for it, unfortunately putting the entire nation through it for real is just too cruel…

                • Tracey

                  yup

                  • The Real Matthew

                    CV & Tracey I’m not so convinced on Winston this time around.

                    The conventional wisdom with Winston is not to write him off but I feel he has lost some of his majic. His claims under parliamentary priviledge get more and more fanciful and he is scoring less hits than in previous terms.

                    I agree there is a constituency there for the Winston vote but The Conservatives will eat into it and with NZ First non-committal about co-alition partners the anti-Key vote may find another box to tick.

        • geoff 2.1.1.2

          Farrar will be shitting himself.

          • Tracey 2.1.1.2.1

            regular colonics for his health, one with each poll?

            • geoff 2.1.1.2.1.1

              Let’s just say that if National has to have a coalition with Winston then it could well mean the end of the gravy train for the penguin.

        • Gosman 2.1.1.3

          Unless they move to support ACT, in which case what does it matter to National?

          • Tracey 2.1.1.3.1

            epsom is act if the beloved leader hints it. But i doubt one seat will do it for the coalition of the right and the wierdoes this time.

            • Gosman 2.1.1.3.1.1

              It provides a bolt hole for any disenchanted National party supporters who are against any deal with Winston.

              • Tracey

                How many times have ACT got over 5% and in what circumstances?

                • Gosman

                  Once as far as I am aware but so what considering it is irrelevant about the 5% threshold if they retain Epsom.

                  • Tracey

                    once is right but you suggest national is popular so no drift from nats to act. of course act gets epsom… but not above 2% party vote no matter how much you love the hard right tail that has wagged the tail.

      • Enough is Enough 2.1.2

        I am not so sure about that.

        We seem to be under this belief that the polls favour the right on the basis that the last election result had National poll well below what the media polls were telling us in the week leading up to the election.

        There were also 800,000 odd people who didn’t vote last time and we are again under the belief that they would have voted left if they had got out of bed.

        Is there no correlation between the 2011 media polls, National’s lower election result, and the missing 800,000 voters.

        I am worried. Very worried. Yet everyone here seems to have the attitude of she’ll be right. Business as usual. It is a very worrying attitude to have when our leader is so unpopular so close to the election..

        • mickysavage 2.1.2.1

          My own belief is that there is an inbuilt bias in the polls. I do not see how the sampling can work to correct for landline based polls. I have many, many clients out west who do not have a landline and rely only on cellphone for communication.

          At the same time lefty supporters are over all less likely to vote. Being marginalised and/or young means that you are less likely to exercise your democratic rights. Turnout is crucial.

          David’s preferred PM polling is no different to Helen’s was at the start of her reign as leader of the opposition. He enjoys campaigns and I am sure that support for him will rise as more people get to meet him.

          • Enough is Enough 2.1.2.1.1

            I like your optimism Greg, but I have not seen any hard evidence in respect of what you claim. I haven’t even seen any soft evidence. It seem to be only anecdotes about our left leaning mates not having landlines.

            I am not saying my proposition above is correct but it has as much credibility at this stage as the lefties don’t have landlines argument.

            Helen was not this unpopular 4 months before the first election that she won, or even the two that she lost.

          • The Lone Haranguer 2.1.2.1.2

            I am sure that the Labour vote will grow when Cunliffe et al turn up on the TV on a regular basis during the election campaign. What I am unsure of is whether the Labour vote will come from a soft Nat base or from the Greens and Winston. Face it, neither side can trust Winston but both sides are likely to need him to form a Government.

            Certainly the swinging votes for Labour wont come from Act or the Conservatives.

            Im picking the election result will come down to a 51/49 split from right to left on election night. Or maybe 51/49 from left to right. Its nothing like a foregone conclusion that some may claim.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1.2.1

              The problem is that a Labour led coalition with a razor thin 2-3 seat majority will likely only last one term.

          • Gosman 2.1.2.1.3

            What was Helen Clark’s prefered PM polling in 1999 though?

            • You_Fool 2.1.2.1.3.1

              About the same as Cunliffe’s will be in 2017, after we have suffered through a government formed and run similar to the train-wreck of a 96-99 National government. National will poll somewhere around the lows 10’s as well…. Not that there will be much left for us to govern after they have wrecked it all…

          • mpledger 2.1.2.1.4

            When I was involved in land-line surveys, we used to take mobile phones out to non-landline households. Finding the non-landline household is a bit of a pain though. And it’s not cheap.

          • Melb 2.1.2.1.5

            And plenty of my National-voting mates and I don’t have landlines either. It’s all anecdata.

            David’s preferred PM polling is no different to Helen’s was at the start of her reign as leader of the opposition.

            Oh good. So John Key to win in 2017 as well?

    • mickysavage 2.2

      If you read latest posts on Kiwiblog and Whaleoil the tenor is quite clear. And comments here and on those sites suggest some think that a National win is inevitable.

      • Clemgeopin 2.2.1

        The undecided in the TV1 was 7.2% I think. Not sure if I am correct. Also, I do not know what the undecided % was in the TV3 poll. Do any of you know?

        • Puddleglum 2.2.1.1

          The ‘Refused’ or ‘Don’t Know’ in the latest Colmar Brunton poll was 17%.

          Only 755 people answered that question with the name of a party – which was considerably lower than most of their other polls apart from the immediately preceding one, which had 767 people answer. The earlier polls had 862, 840, 820 and 834 people answer that question positively (with the name of a party). I’m not sure why there was a slump in their response rate for this question in the latest two polls.

          I don’t know the TV3 poll equivalent statistic.

          • Clemgeopin 2.2.1.1.1

            Thanks very much. It is irritating not knowing how many are still undecided. That is an important information. I think it must be made mandatory in their code for poll companies to report that piece of information, because otherwise we don’t easily know if 0% or 2% or 20% or 60% are still undecided!

            • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1.1.1

              political poll minimum standards and regulations – good idea. Including no polling activity to be conducted in the 10 days before election day, giving the electorate a clear week to consider the issues, not polling number nonsense.

      • lprent 2.2.2

        Lets hope that they carry on thinking so. Last election the National-led coalition scraped in with a single seat and with a hydra of four parties in the coalition. This time around there is a good probability that two or possibly even three of those partners will not be in parliament after the election.

        Last time around National was polling 55% or more on the TV polls in the months approaching the election, and they got 47%. That was with a pretty lacklustre Labour campaign.

        This time at best they peaking at 51%. I and anyone with any brains thinks that they will get well less than 45%. They it looks like Labour is getting a lot better at putting the campaign together. I can see why National would really like to trigger a disruptive leadership debate inside Labour at present and why we are seeing the usual attempts.

        Boring – seen this crap many times before.

        The way it is looking at present, I don’t think that even bribing Winston onboard can save the Nats from opposition periods

        • Anne 2.2.2.1

          I can see why National would really like to trigger a disruptive leadership debate inside Labour at present and why we are seeing the usual attempts.

          Worth having a listen to today’s RNZ political spot. Hooton’s attempt to paint Cunliffe as the evil coup perpetrator, and Shearer the innocent victim was quite an act. Ryan resignedly interrupted in the end because she’s heard it all before. She might just as well have said it aloud… oh God here we go again!

          • Kat 2.2.2.1.1

            And on Morning Retort Key said its ‘actually’ the centre right bloc against the far left bloc. Pretty rich from someone who has just announced free doctors visits for under 13yrs and extended paid parental leave. This is the blatant nonsense that goes unchallenged by the MSM.

      • Enough is Enough 2.2.3

        I would be happy if the Nats were that complacent Micky, I don’t think they are though.

        I am more concerned with the general attitude from the left on this site whereby no one seems too concerned with these poll results.

        Lets for a second assume the polls are an accurate portrayal of how the public vote. I am afraid some around here lack the urgency and motivation required to take these Tories on. If we made that assumption they might become a bit more urgent and stop being so relaxed about one of the most important elections in a generation.

        A Labour party polling below 35% is a fucking disaster and we need to reverse now. At the moment we are well below even that level of support.

        • Colonial Viper 2.2.3.1

          There are many significant disconnects between the Labour Party as it exists today, and the electorate. This is evidenced by 6 years of Tory rule, huge youth unemployment and child poverty, economic stagnation and highly unpopular asset sales, and in the last few months a tonne of scandals…and Labour still sits on the low 30’s.

          But its too late to solve those fundamental problems now, now is simply the time to get out there, campaign and maximise turnout.

          • Enough is Enough 2.2.3.1.1

            That is what I cannot get my head around. National is so popular notwithstanding the list of issues with the country that you have noted and the unpopular policies like asset sales that they have rolled out.

            In spite of all that Labour is as close to the Green as they are to National.

            • Clemgeopin 2.2.3.1.1.1

              I think there are several reasons for this: (Broadly speaking),

              *Key has managed to be very affable in his public dealings and TV appearances.
              *He has kept a tight rein on his caucus.
              *National’s spin machine is efficient no matter what the real truth is.
              *MSM in NZ by and large is lazy, superficial, un-investigative, in its journalism, news and commentary.
              * Voters have a short memory generally, in spite of record opposition to asset sales, GCSB affairs, Communication snooping, political corruption scandals etc
              * Many people are barely interested in politics, daily news or issues that matter.
              * By copying or stealing left social policies, National is trying to hide its real right agenda.
              * When people earn good income, they tend to get selfish and scared of socialist policies.
              * People do not discern the long term harm to society from the evils of uncontrolled capitalism, scant protection of environment etc
              * The left vote is divided between Labour, Greens, Maori and Mana. National has no competition, except the hardly registering, non performing ACT, UF and CONS.
              * Labour is yet to announce many policies and sweeteners, obviously closer to the election to get better traction and publicity. Otherwise, people forget. I am sure many have vague memories of some of the already announced policies such as, for example,
              Best Start for all Kiwi kids, NZ Power, Forestry, KiwiAssure, Affordable and Healthy Homes, Job creation, Education initiatives, Health measures etc.

        • Clemgeopin 2.2.3.2

          How do you expect the posters here to help change the polls? What do you propose we do?

          I think the onus is on the Labour party organisation and hierarchy to bring out strong appealing, sensible, fair, exciting policies and get plenty of exposure and publcity (if MSM give that!). Bold policies that will make people sit up and take notice. Apart from that, volunteer party/election work on the streets. I am hoping those things will follow. Four months is actually a long time in politics.

          Tell us your solution.

        • Kat 2.2.3.3

          What more can you expect from polls taken largely in areas such as Remuera and Epsom. The big poll is September 20th, if the turnout is high Labour has a chance. Until then poll bias will continue to favour National.

    • Tiger Mountain 2.3

      Yep the tory shit sprayer is about to employ turbo boost and nitrous. Guyon E’Spinner and the rest of the media toadies have fresh suppositories in place and are raring to go.

      The thing with the polls is that they consistently ignore or misrepresent undecideds and under MMP it will be very close whatever National is allegedly polling. Is every second car I see really filled with unpleasant dark kiwis or imbeciles?

  3. Gosman 3

    On the question in inbuilt bias on poll results do you not think the polling companies have a commercial incentive to remove this as a large anount of the credibility is based on how accurate they are?

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      The polling companies are doing a job, and that job is not necessarily providing accurate polling on the state of the nation.

    • lprent 3.2

      ….do you not think the polling companies have a commercial incentive to remove this as a large anount of the credibility is based on how accurate they are?

      The political polls are a tiny proportion of their main business, most of which is about finding out what products are going down well with consumers. The political polls appear to primarily be done as a form of publicity, and are clearly done with a very limited degree of accuracy. They’d use larger sample sizes otherwise.

      Why would you think that they have a commercial incentive to make a publicity device more accurate? It isn’t exactly a feature of advertising for any company

      • Gosman 3.2.1

        They would have a greater incentive to be more accurate if this was the case as the political polls are like the advertisements for the rest of their business. They would be losing credibility with potential purchasers of their services if they were wildly inaccurate. That is not to state there isn’t any bias mind you just that the polling companies should be interested in removing it if it was a large as some would like to believe.

        • lprent 3.2.1.1

          They aren’t wildly inaccurate. Why would you say that? Micky didn’t, nor did I.

          The polls are merely inaccurate, and the accuracy can be improved easily with technique and the application of more money than the networks are willing to supply for a low cost advertising poll (that gets them a news story).

          Under normal circumstances, this kind of inaccuracy in a political poll doesn’t matter. But this election like the last two is going to be close between the right and left blocs.

          …just that the polling companies should be interested in removing it if it was a large as some would like to believe.

          So who exactly is saying that it is “large” for all of the polls. I see in the post that one polling company, the Reid ones, were identified as having results that appear to be outside the margins of error.

          Why are you smearing the other polls who merely seem to have a systematic bias within the bounds of the margins of error?

          • Gosman 3.2.1.1.1

            If they are not wildly inaccurate then what are we worried about here? Unless you think the polls should show the election is a shoe in for the left when it is showing instead that it is very tight indeed and could go either way. If Labour was confident that was the case then it surely should just continue to do what it is doing as it is on track for forming the next government quite easily.

            • Colonial Viper 3.2.1.1.1.1

              The polls are just part of the PR/marketing spin for the Right. They are effective in that regard eg. in fulfilling their aims of suppressing voter turnout for the Left.

              • Gosman

                How does this control by the right over the polls actually work? Are people belonging to these polling companies being told by some right leaning person in power to ignore proper techniques in generating a poll and just get results that are favourable to the right? If so how would you explain the times when the left led in the same polls in the past (e.g. in the early to mid 2000’s)?

                • Tracey

                  have you been called by a polling company? We get a few calls every election year. The media dont report all questions asked.

                  I assume you are being deliberately obtuse regarding polling techniques and so point you to this to assist.

                  http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=kp&v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

                • How does this control by the right over the polls actually work?

                  How it works is less important than that it exists. Danyl’s bias-adjusted tracking poll (not ‘his’ exactly, but he publishes it) is based on several elections’ worth of evidence that most polls over-estimate National’s support and underestimate Winston First’s support. Whatever the reasons for its existence, the bias exists.

                  • Phil

                    is based on several elections’ worth of evidence that most polls over-estimate National’s support and underestimate Winston First’s support.

                    Unfortunately, the narrative people have used to explain the over-estimate for National runs completely contrary to everything we know about NZF supporters. Namely: Old white people disproportionately respond to polling.

                    My gut feeling is that in 2011 the Nats lost support to NZF in the last few days of the election, as Winston ramped up the tea-tapes rhetoric. The polling companies, who generally poll over a week or two, wouldn’t have seen the full impact because it was happening so quickly, os late in the game.

                    • That might explain 2011, but the original of Danyl’s bias-adjusted graph shows the same effect in the 2008 election and to a lesser extent in 2005. I’ve no idea what mechanism might account for it – as you say, Bomber’s favourite (yoofs and the poor don’t have landlines) certainly wouldn’t result in NZF being underrepresented – but it’s definitely there.

                    • Phil

                      2005 looks roughly right for the four major parties. The clustering of polling before the election isn’t wildly out of whack with the final result. You could certainly build a narrative that the EB fiasco in the last week(s) of the campaign damaged National and their election result suffered relative to the late polling data (just like 2011 and the tea-tapes).

                      2008 looks worse on the chart than I suspect was the true polling situation. You can see that National’s polling results did suffer in the last couple of months and, as I’ve noted at the Dim-Post a couple of times the trend line might implicitly hold on to old poll data for a little bit too long when it’s calculating the true level of support.
                      Another way of putting it is this: if you get rid of the trend line (because it’s a visual anchor that our brains subconsciously focus on) and just look at a series of dots, the National result looks less markedly out of whack – still overstated, but less than implied in the chart.

                      There may also be a kind of reverse ‘Bradley effect’ as well, where people are too embarrassed to say they support NZF and instead say they support National . I have no basis for this, but it’s a possibility.

              • Skinny

                Maybe some ‘shock into voting treatment is in order’

                Like a YouTube video, a mock up scene of get out to vote door knockers dragging some young punk non voters out of their house and flogging them for being so slack.

                I wonder if that will work?

          • Melb 3.2.1.1.2

            So any whispers of what Labour’s internal polling is showing? Surely they’d be paying the money to get this greater accuracy.

    • mpledger 3.3

      But you can’t tell how accurate they are until the election date. And even then the pollsters have an out – too many people didn’t vote, the undecideds made a difference.

      One firm in the US would purposefully over sample Republicans and then as the election got near it would even out the sampling so it would look like what they were doing was correct. The point of their polling wasn’t to find the truth but to reinforce positive Republican sentiment.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    And David Cunliffe has acknowledged that he needs to convey to the population what sort of person he is. He has worked hard on the policy aspect of the job but people do need to have a sense of who he is if they are going to vote for him. Soft media will be vital.

    The month after Conference in Christchurch last year was when the soft media machine should have gone into top gear and simply stayed there for months until hard nosed electioneering season hit.

    • Enough is Enough 4.1

      Exactly. It is fucking incredible that we are still noting these things 9 months after he was appointed and only weeks before the election.

  5. Clemgeopin 5

    Good and fair analysis there.

    It is a little amusing to see the National/ACT dudes today being as happy as clams and clowns after these latest polls. They might as well enjoy the exuberance to their heart’s content now just like the hapless Humpty Dumpty before the coming great fall on Sept 20!

    Voters seem to be thrilled at the National’s ‘extending paid parental leave and free doctor’s visits’! They will begin to realise that those are the policies that are inspired by the opposition parties, Labour, Greens, NZF and Mana! So actually, National has paid a tribute to the opposition by copying such policies. The voters are not all fools. They will begin to acknowledge and shift their support away from National in the coming weeks. Four months is a long time before the actual elections. More policies are yet to come from Labour and other parties. The present spike in National is simply the immediate reaction to the budget lollies. Won’t last.

    MY PREDICTION OF ELECTION RESULT BASED ON POLLS SO FAR:

    Based on the recent four polls and from past experience of the disparity between the pre-election polls and the actual election results, here is my estimate/calculation/prediction/gut feeling of the probable party vote for various parties, rounded to whole numbers:

    NATIONAL………..=42%
    LABOUR…………..=32%
    GREENS…………..=12%
    NZ FIRST…………..=7%
    CONSER…………..=2%
    INTRNET…………..=2%
    MAORI……………..=1%
    MANA………………=1%
    ACT…………………=0%
    UF…………………..=0%
    Other(Rounded)….=1%

    • Gosman 5.1

      Excellent. We should just do away with professional pollsters and use your finger in the air method instead. Looks like the election is already in the bag for the left. No need to worry about anything then.

      • Clemgeopin 5.1.1

        No, but my prediction is based on the polls of the professional pollsters!

        • Gosman 5.1.1.1

          No, you prediction is based on your largely uneducated opinion about the polls of the professional pollsters

          • Clemgeopin 5.1.1.1.1

            You can’t prove your uneducated statement until Sept 20, though. Wait till that time before you pontificate.

            • Kimbo 5.1.1.1.1.1

              Not going to take you own advice, then?

              • Ben Adam

                I am confident of my projection. You can wait till Sept 20 to see if I am wrong.

                • Kimbo

                  Yeah, Nah.

                  Sorry – I’ve got better things to do with my time than file away and then diarise to check your oracles to see if you qualify as the Nostradamus of New Zealand politics. Nothing personal, but life is too short to waste…

    • Colonial Viper 5.2

      I think Labour 32% to 35% represents the “95% confidence interval” of where the final result will fall. For the Greens this will be more like 11.0% to 13.5%.

      National final result will lie between 40% and 44% methinks.

      Winston 6% to 7% seems very likely too. If he stays consistent and keeps pushing, there is a reasonable chance that he will end up king maker.

      Question – will Labour have Hone in a coalition or will MANA be left out in the cold.

      • Skinny 5.2.1

        Hone is far too loose to have in Government, I really think Davis could unseat him and perhaps Annette Sykes wins against Favell to lead Mana.

    • Roy 5.3

      I wouldn’t count on voters noticing anything :-( A lot of them haven’t noticed yet that John Key is a liar.

  6. Ant 6

    They really just need to pull together as a team and just avoid the mistakes for a decent period of time which will include exercising a bit of discipline for once.

    It will always be a hard task for Labour to make headway because as the Taurima episode showed people who aren’t even candidates yet can cause crap stories about Labour to be run. There is still some dumb shit happening, like the woman who tweeted crap about Cunliffe becoming a candidate, but that is the downside of a democratic party I suppose.

    A party run like a business like the Nats will always have stricter comms most of the time, but really what’s the point of Labour if it is run like that?

    • Anne 6.1

      There is still some dumb shit happening, like the woman who tweeted crap about Cunliffe becoming a candidate,

      What was that all about Ant? I don’t do twitter.

  7. Jackal 7

    In this neck of the woods I’m finding it somewhat difficult to locate anybody who’s going to vote for a continuation of John Key’s government. Where are they?

    Perhaps National’s voters are just unwilling to say they support a regime that’s undermining New Zealand’s core values like home ownership, good jobs and a healthy environment. Like first division lotto winners, people who openly support National are few and far between.

    I guess most right-wingers don’t have much conviction in their beliefs, especially when challenged with some facts…and let’s face it; there really isn’t any good reason to give the neoliberal’s another term in power.

  8. red blooded 8

    Cunliffe’s media strategy is improving, but his team did not come as a packaged deal and have taken time to fit together and build momentum. This needed to be a stronger focus of his thinking and planning while campaigning for the leadership. I know that he put the media manager for Shearer on paid leave as soon as he took office and for quite a time made do without a manager. I guess this was partly a result of the muddle around the change of leader, but it also saw a communications black hole develop for too long after the change (& silly errors like the mismanaged announcement from the last conference).

    Anyway, there is certainly a need for urgency but nobody’s interests are served by panic. Having said that, don’t let’s assume that Key is being honest when he says he’s not taking a 3rd term for granted. People here (rightly) suspect his motives on other matters yet seem very ready to swallow his line about this. He’s a strong tactician and he doesn’t want to look too arrogant. After all, he wants all his voters out on the day, not sitting complacently at home.

    • Skinny 8.1

      Cunliffe reminds me of a fox, it’s that squinty look, I suggest plastic surgery or a strong dose of Botox to freeze them roundish, temporarily till after the election.

  9. Ad 9

    Whether the polls are slightly biased or not is irrelevant. They are bloody depressing, and over too long.

    The Labour Party needs to hold its campaign launch sooner rather than later.
    I appreciate that there will be the usual launch event in Wellington.
    But it’s not enough. Cunliffe needs to act fast to turn around the sense that New Zealand needs to know him before they can like him. The little regional visits haven’t been effective, nor the soft media profile. We need regional launch events.

    The activists can’t go on getting relentless demands for more activism, doing more telephone polling and fundraising, without something fun and confident to celebrate. I have yet to figure out what Labour Central headquarters is doing – because there is no visible energy from the machine other than sorting out candidates.

    We need momentum and enthusiasm, in order to respond to the accelerating demands to come. Because at the moment it’s just bloody depressing.

    • Anne 9.1

      +1 Ad.

    • Will@Welly 9.2

      Whoever is behind David Cunliffe’s strategy needs shooting. You need to win the campaign, not come a distant second. Time to announce “Game on.” National did so back in December.

  10. rich the other 10

    The polls are spot on , here’s an example of why.
    The protest outside Key’s home , it’s helping Key and damaging the left .
    The current political judgement being shown by the left seems to be very poor .

    I suspect these people are playing into Nationals hands and will generate a good deal of sympathy for Key and his family .
    Keep this up and watch the Nat’s go even further ahead in the polls.

    • Naturesong 10.1

      Because involving New Zealand in the US extrajudicial assassination program is a vote winner?

      If that’s the case, we really are fucked – that’s we, New Zealand (politics is not a football game where my team is ahead of yours, it’s what dictates the direction of the nation)

      Killing innocent people as a by product of assassination without trial is how you create terrorism, not how you fight it.

      • Roflcopter 10.1.1

        You lost that message the minute you decided to sit outside the PM’s house… simple.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1.1.1

          Are you such a moron that you can’t distinguish between John Minto and the wider left? Are you responsible for Kyle Chapman?

        • Ant 10.1.1.2

          I agree, most of the electorate find the personalisation of protesting to the extent where it is right outside someones house as distasteful. It just has the perception of being the activity of crazies.

          Also for better or for worse people don’t hate Key enough for it to go down well, if anything they’ll feel more empathy for him.

      • Jackal 10.1.2

        +1 @ Naturesong. There is absolutely nothing wrong with peaceful protest. In fact it is one of the best ways to effect change.

        • Kimbo 10.1.2.1

          Hmm. Not an opinion shared by Norman Kirk. He considered protests invariably alienated and angered those whose support they are meant to mobilise, and they are a self-indulgent waste of energy when more constructive and mature ways should be employed to effect change.

          But then what did Big Norm know?

          • Tracey 10.1.2.1.1

            or gandhi

            • Kimbo 10.1.2.1.1.1

              Gandhi campaigned in a situation where representative democracy didn’t exist, and so that it could.

              Kirk did.

              • Clemgeopin

                Protest works well everywhere, especially in a democracy, highlighting the issue garnering publicity and further support.
                It is much harder to do in authoritarian states. Sometimes, it works there too but at great cost, including lives, freedom and property.

                • Kimbo

                  Works well everywhere? So the possibility (read probability given that the Sue Bradfords, Hone Harawiras on John Mintos of this world are REJECTED by 99% of the electorate when they actually run for office) that protests and protestors can do more damage than good for their cause doesn’t enter into your plausibility structure?

                  Fair enough. Ya pays yer money and takes yer pick.

                  • Clemgeopin

                    That is not the fault of the protesters that have concern for certain issues, but the fault of any one or more characteristics of the docile, trusting, lazy, uncaring, selfish, unthinking, uninterested and/or complacent people.

                    • Kimbo

                      Ah, the humility, self-awareness and calm and measured perspective of the protest movement illustrated in one post.

                      And they wonder why the “silent majority” holds them in mutual contempt.

          • Jackal 10.1.2.1.2

            Do you have a link to back up this assertion Kimbo? Norman Kirk dispatching a frigate to Mururoa to halt nuclear testing kind of shows he supported peaceful protest.

            • Kimbo 10.1.2.1.2.1

              A timely question given the recent publication of ‘The Mighty Totara’. One of the sources used by David Grant was “The Diary of the Kirk Years” by Kirk’s secretary, Margaret Hayward (published in 1981). In it she clearly outlined Kirk’s objection to loud, intrusive, undignified protest – as was typical of the anti-Springbok and Vietnam examples of the late 1960 and early 1970s, and which sum up succinctly the effort in Parnell last night that was the subject of my post.

              It wasn’t that Kirk didn’t sympathise with many of the causes that had become increasingly fashionable to protest about, often illegally, in that era. In many cases he did. But he was also sensitive to bringing people with him rather than alienating and antagonising. And I have little doubt what he would have thought of the targeting of a politician’s family home. Don’t believe me? Read Hayward’s book.

              Which is why, when Kirk did send the frigate to Mururoa in 1973, it was a restrained, creative, and dignified action. In contrast to the Fri, a CND yacht that led a flotilla of private protest vessels at the same time, Kirk ordered NO illegal or antagonistic entry by the Otago into French territorial waters. Indeed, when the Fri was boarded by the French for breaching international law, Kirk made very sure NO assistance or attempts to intervene were made, in order to differentiate the official New Zealand government action from others.

              Kirk would have also let the 1973 Springboks tour New Zealand IF the Vorster government had allowed for a merit-selected South African team and mixed race trials. He also had contempt for the illegal activity and threats of HART, particularly Trevor Richards, and the burning down of a Papakura club rugby grandstand in the lead-up to his decision to ask the NZRFU to cancel the tour. Indeed, given Big Norm’s firm stance on law-and-order, his decison was made ultimately not BECAUSE of HART, but IN SPITE of it.

              Plenty of lessons in Hayward’s book for the modern Labour Party if it was interested in knowing why floating voters are almost always repelled by loud and confrontational protest and political parties that do not cleraly differentiate themselves from it…

              http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8545352/Protests-the-start-of-the-end-of-apartheid

  11. captain hook 11

    the nats are crowd followers. at the moment they all running after a winner but the momentum will shift pretty soon. I see gooseman is back. The National Party obviously dont pay him overtime to hang round here in the weekends.

  12. dave 12

    as a voter national is offering me nothing . unafforble cost of living, no wage rises, an economy with permanent high unemployment, unpayable levels of debt and an uncerten future. thanks for the brighter future!!!!!!!!!!

    • infused 12.1

      Low unemployment… unplayable levels of debt? Please. Skill up and get yourself a wage wise. Does the govt have to wipe your ass too?

  13. “There is no presence of the American columns in the city of Baghdad at all. We besieged them and we killed most of them.”

    • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1

      “National can govern alone.”

      • poem 13.1.1

        How? Despite the vote rigging cup of tea with john banks, despite all the media hype, despite all the hype of polls, national couldn’t managed it last time, and they have done some pretty bad things to NZ and its people since then. You have underestimated the masses, AND MMP. And before you launched into a spiel on polls, who said the polls are true? they were wrong last time. john key and national did NOT get the level of support the polls were touting, and national did not govern alone either.

  14. Philj 14

    xox
    Polls are a bit like statistics, open to fiddling.
    Now that we are all experiencing the brighter future I can’t wait for what lies ahead. Hopefully Radio New Zealand National will improve, it can’t sink much lower. Guyon,Suzie,Jim and Kathryn. The tone of Mourning Report has morphed into some fake US style of hype ,sensationalism and increasingly, stupidity. I.e. Guyon ” Its really cold ? ” Farmer replies ” Its called winter Guyon.” Please save me from this rubbish!

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    John Key is misleading the public to push through terrorism law changes under urgency, the Green Party said today. On Sunday, John Key stated that it is not illegal for someone to fight overseas for a terrorist group, such as...
    Greens | 12-10
  • Law changes shaping up to be worse than first thought
    The Prime Minister needs to be up front about exactly what changes he is planning to make to the Employment Relations  Amendment Bill, Labour's spokesperson on Labour Issues Andrew Little says.Interviewed on Q&A yesterday John Key said he did not...
    Labour | 12-10
  • Rapists, not Tinder, the threat to women
    Blame for rape and sexual assault should only ever be laid at the door of the perpetrator, not dating services or the actions of women themselves, Labour’s Associate Police spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. “Tinder is not the problem and women...
    Labour | 09-10
  • Safer Journeys For People Who Cycle
    You have a rare opportunity to tell the people who are making the decisions on cycling how to make it better. The Cycling Safety Panel is seeking feedback on their draft recommendations for improving the safety of cycling in New...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Subsidising more pollution will undermine water clean-up plan at Te Waihora...
    In 2010, NIWA found Canterbury’s Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere had the worst nutrient status of 140 lakes around New Zealand that it measured. In 2011, the National Government committed to spending $15 million across the country through the Fresh Start for...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Adding value not herbicides
    The HT swedes, and other brassicas, might seem like a good idea to farmers struggling against weeds but like the GE road, is this the path we want our agriculture to be treading? The Federated Farmers President, Dr William Rolleston...
    Greens | 07-10
  • ‘Blame the Planner’ bizarre approach to child poverty
    The National Government is stooping to a bizarre new low in blaming "planning processes" for poverty and inequality, after spending six years doing nothing about either the housing market or child poverty, the Green Party said today. Finance Minister Bill...
    Greens | 07-10
  • Media Advisory
    MANA Leader, Hone Harawira will not be available to speak with media today regarding his release “Recount Just One Step To restoring Credibility”. He is however available for media comment tomorrow, Tuesday the 8th of October, all media arrangements are...
    Mana | 07-10
  • RECOUNT JUST ONE STEP TO RESTORING CREDIBILITY
    “I have applied for a judicial recount of the votes in the Tai Tokerau election because it is one step in trying to restore credibility to the electoral process in the north, and, I suspect, in all other Maori electorates...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA SEEKS TAI TOKERAU RECOUNT
    The MANA Movement is supporting Leader Hone Harawira’s application for a judicial re-count in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate for the 2014 general election. President Lisa McNab says there are a number of serious issues of concern regarding the ability...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA to fight mass privatisation of state housing
    Announcements over the past 12 hours from the Minister responsible for Housing New Zealand, Bill English, and Minister for Social Housing, Paula Bennett, make clear the government’s intention for the mass privatisation of state housing. This comes during the middle...
    Mana | 07-10
  • Journalists have right to protect sources
    Legal authorities must respect the right of journalist Nicky Hager to protect the source of his material for his Dirty Politics book under Section 68 of the Evidence Act, Acting Labour Leader David Parker says. “It is crucial in an...
    Labour | 06-10
  • It shouldn’t take the Army to house the homeless
    National’s move to speed up its state house sell-off shows it is bankrupt of new ideas, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “National has been in office for six years, yet the housing crisis has got worse every month and...
    Labour | 06-10
  • Government must lift social housing supply, not shuffle the deck chairs
    National's decision to shift the state provision of housing to third parties is a smokescreen for the Government decreasing the provision of affordable housing, the Green Party said today."What National should be doing is increasing the supply of both social...
    Greens | 06-10
  • Election 2014 – the final count
    While we have to wait for the final booth level counts we can now see how well we did in the specials and look at electorate level data. First off special votes (and disallowed/recounted votes etc). There was a change...
    Greens | 06-10
  • We need more houses, not Ministers
    The Government’s decision to have three housing Ministers will create a dog’s breakfast of the portfolio and doesn’t bode well for fixing the country’s housing crisis, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New Zealanders need more houses, not more Ministers....
    Labour | 05-10
  • MANA’S CHALLENGE TO THE 51st PARLIAMENT
    Ten years ago I led 50,000 Maori on the historic FORESHORE AND SEABED MARCH from Te Rerenga Wairua to the very steps of this parliament, in a march against the greatest land grab in the history of this country –...
    Mana | 03-10
  • Is this really necessary?
    No one denies chief executives should be well paid for their skills and experience, but it is the efforts of all employees which contribute to company profits, Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker says. “Salaries paid to chief executives come at...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Lyttelton Port workers also deserve pay rises
    Hard slog by Lyttelton Port workers contributed to strong financial growth for the company and they deserve to be rewarded for their work as much as its chief executive, says Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker. “Lyttelton Port chief executive Peter...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Māori Party must seek guarantees on Māori seats
    Labour is calling on the Māori Party to ensure protection of the Māori seats is part of its coalition deal with National which is being considering this weekend, Labour’s Māori Affairs spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says. “For the third consecutive term,...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Donaghys job losses another blow to Dunedin
    The loss of 30 jobs from Donaghys rope and twine factory is yet another blow to the people and economy of Dunedin, says Dunedin South Labour MP Clare Curran. “Donaghys was founded in 1876; the company has survived two world...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Dairy price fall shows urgent need to diversify
    The overnight drop in milk prices shows New Zealand’s overreliance on the dairy industry puts our economy in a vulnerable position, says Acting Labour Leader David Parker. “Dairy prices fell 7.3 per cent overnight and have almost halved since February....
    Labour | 02-10
  • Tasks aplenty for new Health Minister
    One of the first jobs for the new Minister of Health must be to provide an honest and transparent report into surgery waiting times and exactly how many Kiwis are not having their health needs met, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Where. Is. Jason. Ede?
    Where. Is. Jason. Ede?...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Labour’s Din of Inequity
    Watching Labour’s leadership candidates on Q+A on Sunday, I noticed the ongoing use of terms like “opportunity” and “aspiration”, and “party of the workers”. What do these mean? We glean much from Labour, and from the media about Labour, but not...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • “Blue-Greenwash” fails the test when it comes to endangered dolphins
    National’s pre-election promises saw some wins for the environment – perhaps as the party sought to appease its “Blue-Green” voters and broaden its popular appeal. Some of the ecological gains were a long time in the making, overdue even– such...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Reasons not to be cheerful, Part #272b
    Why don’t you get back into bed? The next few years — the rest of this century — are not going to be pretty. There is an obvious disconnect between any remaining political ambition to fix climate change and the...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • OIA protocols and official advice ignored to hide Child Poverty
    It might not seem so now, but child poverty was a major election issue. What a pity we did not have the full debate. In that debate it would have been very helpful to have seen the Ministry of Social...
    The Daily Blog | 20-10
  • Previewing the 4 candidates for Leader of the Labour Party
    The extraordinary outbursts by Shearer last week highlights just how toxic that Caucus is. Shearer was on every major media platform as the ABC attack dog tearing into Cunliffe in the hope of diminishing Cunliffe’s support of Little by tearing...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – the sudden explosion of ‘left’ blogs
    Time to Teach or more people will suffer from P.A.I.D. Political And Intellectual Dysmorphia.I was on the Twitter and a guy followed me so of course I did the polite thing and followed him back. He wrote a blog so...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Ego vs Eco
    Ego vs Eco...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • We can’t let the Roastbuster case slip away
    Those of us (like me) left with hope that the police would aggressively follow through on the large amount of evidence on offer to them (let’s not forget they forgot they even had some at one point) in the Roastbusters...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Food, shelter and medicine instead of bombs and bullets
    The on-going conflict across the Middle East – due in large part to the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – has created another humanitarian crisis of biblical proportion. The essentials of life are desperately needed in Iraq and Syria...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • The politics of electorate accommodations
    National’s electorate accommodations with ACT and United Future were a big factor in it winning re-election. Interestingly, there is another electorate accommodation scenario whereby the centre-left could have come out on top, even with the same distribution of party votes....
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Why you should join the TPPA Action on 8 November
    On 8 November 2014, thousands of Kiwis will take part in the International Day of Action to protest the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). The rally cry for us is TPPA – Corporate Trap, Kiwis Fight Back. Why should you join...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG – Patrick O’Dea: no new coal mines
    Green Party and Mana Party policy is “NO NEW COAL MINES!” Auckland Coal Action is trying to put this policy into action on the ground. ACA after a hard fought two year campaign waged alongside local residents and Iwi, in...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Comparing Police action – Hager raid vs Roast Buster case
    This satire had the NZ Police contact TDB and threaten us with 6months in prison for using their logo.   The plight of Nicky Hager and the draconian Police actions against him has generated over  $53 000 in donations so...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Malala Yousafzai, White Saviour Complexes and Local Resistance
    Last week, Malala Yousafzai was the co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Since her exposure to the worldwide spotlight, her spirit, wisdom and strength have touched the hearts of people everywhere. However, there have been cynics who have argued that...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Jason Ede is back – but no media can interview him?
    Well, well, well. Jason Ede, the main figure connected to John Key’s office and the Dirty Politics black ops is back with a company with deep ties to the National Party. One thing you can say about the right –...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Leadership Transitions In Other Parties: A ...
    As cannot have escaped anyone’s attention by now, the country is presently in the grips of an election and campaign that will help determine the fate of the nation for years to come. It’s gripping stuff – with clear divides...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • SkyCity worker says she faces losing her house
    SkyCity worker Carolyn Alpine told the company annual shareholder’s meeting today that she faced the prospect of losing her house because the company had cut her shifts from two a week to one without consultation. The solo mother, has worked...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • Greg O’Connor’s latest push to arm cops & 5 reasons not to
    I was wondering at what point within a 3rd term of National that Police Cheerleader Greg O’Connor would start trying to demand cops be armed. O’Connor must have thought to himself, ‘if bloody Key can get us and the GCSB vast new...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • You can’t have crisis without ISIS
    So the new scary bogeyman ISIS might have chemical weapons that the US secretly found in Iraq, but America didn’t want to expose this find because the WMDs were actually built and made by the US and Europe, the two powers...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • NZ WINS UN SPIN THE BOTTLE! Privately sucking up to America for a decade me...
    Oh, we are loved! Little old NZ, the 53rd state of America after Israel and Australia, gets to sit at the adults table for the special dinner party that is the UN Security Council. How delightful, a decade of privately...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • MEDIA BLOG – Myles Thomas – A World Without Advertising
    Non-commercial broadcasting and media. It’s a solution for all manner of problems ailing our tender nation… voter engagement, unaccountable governance, apathy, stupefaction, public education, science in schools, arts appreciation, cultural cringe… But no-one could’ve guessed that non-commercial media might solve...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October
    March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • Whack a mole as US govt foreign policy
    Whack-A-Mole was a popular arcade game from my youth.  It consisted of a waist high cabinet with holes in the top. Plastic moles seemingly randomly pop out of these holes. The purpose of the game was to hit as many...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • In Paean of Debt
    This week is ‘Money Week’. It’s an opportunity to promote to the middle classes, and anyone else who will listen, the virtues of wise ‘investment’. The aims are to promote the mystical (and indeed mythical) virtues of saving for the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • The last 48 hours – Poverty denial, war denial and unapologetic abuse of ...
    The bewildering speed of events that simply end in Key shrugging and proclaiming he doesn’t really give a shit is coming think and fast as the Government suddenly appreciate the full spectrum dominance they now enjoy. Here is Radio NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Mana 2.0 Rebooted
    Internationally the news is that Evo Morales of Bolivia won big with Left Wing policies But what are the chances that the Left will make a resurgence in this country? As the internecine struggles between the Left and the Right...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Blomfield IPCA letter – Has Dirty Politics leaked into the NZ Police ...
    It’s difficult to know what to make of the IPCA letter to Matthew Blomfield over Slater’s continued insistence that the hard drive taken from Matthew wasn’t stolen.  Slater has selectively cherry picked the Police referring back to his claim that Blomfeild perjured...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • ​Media release: Rail and Maritime Transport Union – Auckland move for K...
    The Rail and Maritime Transport Union is questioning a KiwiRail proposal to progressively relocate its Zero Harm personnel from Wellington to Auckland. “The purpose of the Zero Harm team is to drive KiwiRail’s performance in health and safety.  Rail is a...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Amnesty International – Friend request from an IS militant
    There’s always that one person, that one Facebook friend, usually a musician or event promoter, who, when you so foolishly accept their friend request, will completely inundate your news feed with copious event invitations and promotions. The person who, despite...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • NZ should follow the UK and recognize the Palestinian state
    Over the past two weeks, the United Kingdom and Sweden have made headlines through their decisions to recognize the state of Palestine. They are hardly the first nations to do so. Indeed, 134 countries have, in various ways, given formal...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Discordant Chimes of Freedom: Why Labour has yet to be forgiven.
    WHY DOES THE ELECTORATE routinely punish Labour and the Greens for their alleged “political correctness” but not National? It just doesn’t seem fair. Consider, for example, the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007 – the so-called “anti-smacking legislation” –...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Hosking or Henry – Which right wing crypto fascist clown do you want to w...
    So Mediaworks are finally going to make some actual money from their eye watering contract with Paul Henry by launching a new multi-platform Breakfast show over TV, Radio and internet. This is great news for Campbell Live who have dodged...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Families need more money to reduce child poverty
    Prime Minister John Key is mistaken to rule out extending the In Work Tax Credit to all poor children (The Nation 11th Oct) and Child Poverty Action Group challenges government advisors to come up with a more cost effective way...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – Don’t shit on my dream
    Once were dreamers. A large man, walks down the road and, even from 200 yards there’s light showing between his big arms and bigger body. It’s as if he’s put tennis balls under his arms. Two parking wardens walk out...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Labour and ‘special interests’
    The media narrative of Labour is that it is unpopular because it’s controlled by ‘special interests’. This ‘special interests’ garbage is code for gays, Maoris, wimin and unionists. We should show that argument the contempt it deserves. The next Labour...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Ru...
    . . Continued from: Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Tahi) . National’s housing development project: ‘Gateway’ to confusion . Perhaps nothing better illustrates National’s lack of a coherent housing programme than the ‘circus’ that is...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Here’s what WINZ are patronisingly saying to people on welfare when they ...
    Yesterday, a case manager from WINZ called to tell me that I needed to “imagine what I would do if I did not have welfare”. I replied “Well, I guess if I couldn’t live at home, I would be homeless.”...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • David Shearer’s ‘no feminist chicks’ mentality highlights all that is...
    Mr Nasty pays a visit Shearer’s extraordinary outburst last night on NZs favourite redneck TV, The Paul Henry Show, is a reminder of all that is wrong within the Labour Caucus right now… He said the current calls for a female or...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0
    Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – A Tale Of Two Cities
    Sunday was surreal. I went for a drive and ended up in a different country. It wasn’t intentional but those days of too many literally intertextual references seldom are. There is no doubt that the Sunday drive this week had...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Key raises terror threat level to justify war in Iraq and now the SIS need ...
    Have we learned nothing from rushing into war? It’s embarrassing Key has raised our terror threat from ‘very low’ to ‘low’ so he can justify military action in Iraq. Watching him pimp for an American war is as sick as...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Socialism? in France; Austerity in Europe
    On Sunday I stumbled upon this recent New York Times column The Fall of France by Paul Krugman. Then I caught BBC’s Newsnight interview with France’s ‘Socialist’ Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Krugman notes that the Socialists came to power on an anti-austerity mandate, but completely squandered their opportunity...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • So Snowden and Greenwald were right – again – NZ Embassies spying for A...
    Well, well, well. What do we have here… NZ embassies involved in covert intelligence work for US – reportsNew Zealand’s embassies have been involved in covert intelligence gathering work on behalf of the United States, a fresh batch of classified...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Why David Parker *isn’t* a credible choic...
    The one electoral contest this year that a Labour leader is sure to win heated up over the weekend with the late entry of Finance Spokesman (and interim caretaker leader) David Parker into Labour’s leadership race. I’d blogged late last...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Fran O’Sullivan’s extraordinary column
    Note how the carefully constructed flow chart above ignores the mainstream media’s complicity with Slater and Dirty Politics    I am no fan of Fran O’Sullivan’s politics and would argue long into the day against her on many of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Final salute to Cunliffe
    Final salute to Cunliffe...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • David Cunliffe’s statement
    I am today announcing that I have decided not to nominate for the 2014 Labour Party leadership contest. It has been a hard decision to make but it is one that I believe is in the best interests of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Cunliffe to quit leadership race – the losers are the Labour Party member...
    That’s all folks   And so ends the first ever Labour Party member/affiliates choice for leadership. David Cunliffe is standing down at 2pm and is supporting Andrew Little instead. What a perverse turn of events. Cunliffe was punished by an angry Labour leadership forced...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Want to see new Nu Zilind? Read the comments section of Andrea Vance’s co...
    Andrea Vance is no stooge. She is one of the few mainstream media voices who has challenged power and authority, her latest column on the outrageous attempts by Key to use fear mongering to  spook the sleepy hobbits into war...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Speech from the Throne brings welcome focus on children
    Today’s speech from the Throne confirms the Government’s focus on children, youth and their families in the areas of health, education, youth employment, poverty alleviation and Whānau Ora; now the challenge is to ensure every child in New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • John’s Job Fairs no fix for unemployment and poverty
    “John Key has clearly been looking to the US for his latest bright idea on dealing with employment issues,” says Auckland Action Against Poverty coordinator Sue Bradford. “Job fairs where the desperately unemployed queue in their corporate best to compete...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Speech From the Throne Foreshadows More Corporate Welfare
    Responding to the Governor General’s Speech from the Throne, which outlined that the Government’s intentions for the next Parliamentary term would include further Business Growth Agenda initiatives, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Green MP to speak at panel on Rainbow Mental Health
    Hamilton, New Zealand: Recently re-elected Green Party MP Jan Logie will be a guest speaker at a panel on the mental health of Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Trangender, Takataapui and Intersex people taking place on November 1st as part of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Evidence Supports GE Moratorium
    Federated Farmers spokesman Graham Smith's call for a 'rethink' on release of GeneticallyEngineered organisms is misguided, and instead it is time for a formal moratorium on GMOs in the environment.(1)...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Chatham Rise mining could have impact on whales and dolphins
    Wellington, 21 October 2014--Mining phosphate on the Chatham Rise, off the east coast of New Zealand’s south island, could potentially have many impacts on marine mammals like whales and dolphins, the Environmental Protection Agency was told today....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Council endorses Nanaia Mahuta as the next Labour leader
    Te Kaunihera Māori, the Māori Council of the New Zealand Labour Party, have passed a resolution to endorse the Hon Nanaia Mahuta as the next leader of the Labour Party...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Kaumatua to organise petition to end Maori seats
    Ngapuhi kaumatua David Rankin has announced that he will be organising a nationwide petition to seek support from Maori voters to end the Maori seats. “These seats are patronising”, he says. “They imply we need a special status, and that...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Announcing a New Voice for The Left
    Josh Forman is pleased to announce the creation of a new force on the Left of politics in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Public services held back by poor workplace culture
    A new report by Victoria University’s Centre for Labour, Employment and Work shows that public servants are working significant unpaid overtime to ensure the public services New Zealanders value are able to continue....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update
    Andrew Little’s probability of being the next leader of the Labour Party has reached 70% and Jacinda Ardern is favourite to become his deputy, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Prison Drug Treatment Unit marks a milestone
    Christchurch Men’s Prison’s Drug Treatment Unit (DTU) celebrated the completion of its 50th six month Drug and Alcohol Programme today, with the graduation of a further twelve offenders....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Security Council seat a chance for NZ to empower women
    The UN Women National Committee Aotearoa New Zealand (UN Women NCANZ) welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use its position to proactively promote effective implementation of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Waipareira and ACC sign Partnership
    Waipareira and The Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding at Whanau Centre, Henderson – marking a special day for the West Auckland Urban Maori organisation....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Humanitarian aid desperately needed in Iraq and Syria
    Global Peace and Justice Auckland is calling on the government to provide humanitarian funding for non-aligned NGOs (non-governmental organisations) in the Middle East rather than give any support whatever for the US-led military campaign in the area....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Court Judicial Decision: Dotcom v The USA: 17 October 2014
    The United States of America is seeking the extradition of Messrs Dotcom, Batato, Ortmann and Van Der Kolk. The matter has been before the Courts on numerous occasions, and no further recitation of the facts is needed....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Marshall Island poet speaks at UN climate summit
    “The fossil fuel industry is the biggest threat to our very existence as Pacific Islanders. We stand to lose our homes, our communities and our culture. But we are fighting back. This coming Friday thirty Pacific Climate Warriors, joined by...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Many tourist car accidents preventable
    Simple steps could dramatically reduce the number of accidents involving tourists, says the car review website dogandlemon.com ....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • RainbowYOUTH: 25 Years, 25 More
    In 1989, a group of young people in Auckland got together to form a support group for LGBTIQ youth. They called it Auckland Lesbian And Gay Youth (ALGY). After 25 years, several location changes, a name change, a brand reboot...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Outdated Oath shows need for Kiwi Head of State
    MPs are sworn in today and New Zealand Republic has written to MPs asking them to talk about why 121 New Zealanders elected by the people of New Zealand and standing in the New Zealand Parliament swear allegiance to another...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Council shouldn’t revenue grab from windfall valuations
    Auckland Council should state clearly they will not try and capture revenue as a result of the latest valuations and needs reminding that the City’s skyrocketing property values doesn’t change the level or cost of Council’s services, says...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • EPMU endorses Andrew Little for Labour leadership
    The National Executive of the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union unanimously endorsed Andrew Little for the role of Labour leader, at a meeting held yesterday. “I have been speaking to our workplace delegates at forums across the country over...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • World Food Day promotes Agroecology not GE technology
    The UN has stated that agroecology is a major solution to feeding the world and caring for the earth....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Labour Names Review Team
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review. He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Contenders for Labour leadership debate for first time
    The contenders for the leadership of the Labour Party debated for the first time on TV One’s Q+A programme today....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • UN Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme
    New Zealand's United Nations Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme....
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully
    Murray McCully says New Zealanders can expect a 5-10 year engagement against Islamic State if we join military action in Iraq and the government will take that “very carefully into account”...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard says there is “sufficient evidence” to fight Islamic State and does not think it will increase the risk of a domestic attack...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • NZ businesses to make child abuse a priority conversation
    Many leading New Zealand businesses have partnered with national child advocacy organisation Child Matters to participate in the fourth annual ‘Buddy Day’ - New Zealand’s only child abuse prevention awareness day....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Tribunal decision significant for SMEs
    The Human Rights Review Tribunal decided this week in favour of an employee’s right not to work on Saturdays for religious reasons. The decision may still be appealed but the Director of the Office of Human Rights Proceedings, Robert Kee,...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • On The Nation this weekend
    This weekend on The Nation… New Zealand has been elected to the United Nations Security Council, but what happens next? Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully from New York about our goals for reform, what America wants from us...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • 1000+ supported by Te Arawa Whanau Ora
    Over 1000 individual whānau members are leading happier, healthier, more successful lives as a result of eight passionate and committed Māori organisations working at the coalface to help whānau find success....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Nomination for Board Members Now Open
    CRF’s objective is to create opportunities for people from refugee backgrounds to lead fulfilling lives and contribute to every area of New Zealand society. It is an organisation that undertakes advocacy work using the strengths-based approach,...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Anglican Family Care Otago staff to take industrial action
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Use UN Security Council role to overcome inaction and injust
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Grisham’s ‘child porn’ comments ignorant
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Latest leak of TPPA intellectual property text confirms risk
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • New Zealand awarded UN Security Council seat
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • 40 more jobs lost to cheap imports
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Pink Batts manufacturer to cut Christchurch jobs
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Kellogg cereal donations help the Sallies feed those in need
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • National Slips, Labour Hits Lows
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZ parents hope for more than just happy and healthy babies
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZPI backs Minister’s affordable housing stance
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Prime Minister’s OIA Admision Disturbing
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZDIA forum press release
    NZDIA forum press release Wellington - The New Zealand Defence Industry Association, with the support of the NZ Defence Force and the Ministry of Defence, will be holding a two-day international forum on October 21-22 at the Michael Fowler Centre...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • BPW NZ calls fashion industry to account
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    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Electoral Commission introduces Extra Touch for Blind NZers
    The Electoral Commission was presented with the Extra Touch Award by the Association of Blind Citizens of New Zealand (Blind Citizens NZ), in recognition of its successful implementation of Telephone Dictation Voting ahead of its commitment to do so by...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
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