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On the accuracy of online polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 25th, 2013 - 30 comments
Categories: polls, privatisation - Tags:

The proportion on people who have pre-registerd for Mighty River Power, according to the Stuff poll:

mighty river power prereg

Reality:

mighty river power prereg 2

(440,000 pre-registrations, well short of the half a million the Right was touting)

Methinks the readership of newsites leans significantly to the middle class and elite.

Out of interest – about 70% of pre-registrations became people who actually bought shares in the Contact sale – 180,000 people. A further 1% of the population didn’t pre-register but bought later. Today, less than 2% of Kiwis own Contact shares.

30 comments on “On the accuracy of online polls”

  1. Lanthanide 1

    The second graph, if anyone else is trying to work out what it is showing because it isn’t properly labelled, is raw # of people who have pre-registered, out of the total population. The scale across the bottom is millions of people, eg the population of NZ.

    • UpandComer 1.1

      That little line would still be bigger then that other line for people signing a bought and paid for fake petition.

  2. pmofnz 2

    Second graph ‘well short of half a million’. Do you have a credible link for that slur attributed to the Right?

  3. Watching 3

    Both sides of the argument are using illogical stats to prove their point. No wonder the population of NZ is getting bored.

    I thought Norman’s press release over the weekend was weak: that because only 10% of the population pre-registered then 90% of the population is against assets sales. On that same logic you could argue that as the Green received 10% odd of the 2011 election vote (which at guess would be about 6% of the total population) then over 90% of the population does not support Green policy – which is also a stupid point to derive from the stats.

    Also on the pre-registered numbers (1) did you have to be over a certain age to pre-registered – linked to having an IRD number and (2) quite a few people I know have decided not to pre-registered as they don’t have the money and will be getting the investment via KiwiSave

    Back to the reality of online polls – they are fun things. If you believe in them, then I hope when somebody says to you next “I have an unbelievable deal for you” that you stop & have a coffee before making a decision.

    • Lightly 3.1

      anyone NZer could pre-register, including kids.

    • felix 3.2

      “Also on the pre-registered numbers (1) did you have to be over a certain age to pre-registered – linked to having an IRD number “

      Anyone could register anyone.

      You could register your kids. You could register your dog. You could register the leaders of the Labour and Green parties FFS.

      No IRD numbers required.

      • Ed 3.2.1

        Given that the rules appear to have been changed “on the hoof” as it were to give those who have pre-registered higher allocations, those in the know may well have pre-registered in the names of each of their family, each trust, and combinations of these – any combination which could be allocated shares and then sell them to a sensible holding for the wider family. that is assuming National do the predictable and under-price to assure a “success”. So 440,000 pre-registrations may only represent say 400,000 individuals. We will never know how many ‘rogue’ pre-registrations there are (such as that for David Shearer) just to get the numbers up . . .

        • felix 3.2.1.1

          “So 440,000 pre-registrations may only represent say 400,000 individuals.”

          Or 220,000 individuals registering for 2 people.

          Or 100,000 individuals, another 100,000 registering for 2, and 35,000 registering for 4.

          etc etc.

  4. Adrian 4

    The 10% is about the upper level of the long term share ownership numbers in NZ. Normally it is only about 7% but rises temporarily after big offers like this. Wealth Transfer 101. Thieving arseholes.

    • Raymond a Francis 4.1

      Thieving arseholes” because they can afford to buy the shares?
      We have a lot of people talking about all NZers owning these asserts but how many are net tax payers
      Most of the protesters don’t appear to fall into the category being to young for starters

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        Civilisation started to go down hill when we stupidly expanded the vote beyond property owning Christian men of good (tax paying) standing.

        PS people paying for stolen or dubious goods with cash bear some culpability don’t they?

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.2

        Most of the protesters don’t appear to fall into the category being to young for starters

        The sad thing is that the generation which is 50+ has been actively thieving from NZs young for a couple of decades now.

        Key, English, Joyce. How much did they have to pay for their educations? Were they always able to find good paying jobs over the summer holidays which let them save up enough money for the following full year at uni? And when they bought their first house…how much did it cost, perhaps a whole 4x or 5x the median wage?

        • Tim 4.1.2.1

          Please don’t include the ENTIRE generation – though I agree that all those Onslow College contemporaries of mine – most anyway, professing socialist, or left wing leanings – now Pulp magazine editors, media commentators, spin doctors, bankers, Munstas of the Krearn (etc.) probably fit your stereotype (with some justification).
          I used to always be suspicious of them when ‘flatting’ (to coin a quaint old term), when most used to take their washing home to mumsy at weekends.
          Tragic specimens now the most of them! Generally: paunchy, grey haired and unhappy white old men chanting the very same racist taunts at the breakdown in society my great grandparents once did. (Funny too how majority of their kids have turned out absolute fuckups).
          Pagini beware!

          • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.1.1

            Please don’t include the ENTIRE generation

            Understood. I have several excellent mentors that I respect within that generation; sadly too many others however seem rather more privileged, self serving and narrowly conscious in their attitudes.

      • Adrian 4.1.3

        I’m 63 and almost all of my contemporaries are upset at this wealth transfer i.e, theft. What a lot of people don’t realise is that the foregone returns to the Treasury coffers have to be replaced from elsewhere. If only 7% of NZers can afford to buy shares and hence profit from same, the shortfall in tax is made up from all taxpayers therefore subsidising what will almost certainly eventually be large fund mamagers. Stupid, stupid policy.

  5. vto 5

    I just love how floating the power companies means less kiwis end up owning them.

    Great.

    Well done Nats, you fucking bozos.

    • Draco T Bastard 5.1

      I just love how floating the power companies means less kiwis end up owning them.

      And that those few who do end up owning the power companies end up with unearned wealth from everyone else.

  6. pollywog 6

    If all those 400k kiwi mums and dads blow their wad on Mighty River, who is going to buy up the next round of shares ?

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Godman Sachs. Using money printed by the US Fed.

      • SpaceMonkey 6.1.1

        +1… Even if it’s not an in-yer-face Goldman Sach-style pump and dump IPO (e.g. Facebook), I’m picking the shares will still initially fall post-IPO, perhaps based on some new information that we’ll be told was unforeseen, e.g some debt that was moved off the balance sheets temporarily to make the books look better.

        It will be enough to panic Ma and Pa investor into selling and Goldman and the rest will be waiting in the wings to vacuum them up – having probably also made a nice little windfall shorting the share price along the way.

        Within 5-10 years the power companies will have shareholdings that look like Fletcher, nothing remotely NZ-owned about them.

  7. AsleepWhileWalking 7

    Is anyone else thinking this is starting look like a pump’n’dump?

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pumpanddump.asp

    Easy to get names from electorial roll.

  8. Ant 8

    Don’t see why registering is automatically equated to supporting asset sales – most people seem to see it as registering for easy money/returns.

    • Ed 8.1

      Or for encouraging the government to set the price as high as possible – we know there will be an element of give-away, but if they think it will be over-subscribed they may actually feel they have to avoid too big a rush as that would imply the price was too low . . .

    • Tim 8.2

      A point I’d been trying to make way back when. Some even have more noble intention other than
      “registering for easy money/returns.”

  9. Rich 9

    They pretty much give themselves away with their “alternative online census”:
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8373937/Alternative-census-what-you-told-us

    See Q.23 34% earning over $100,000 (for the general population, it’s below 5%).

  10. Richard 10

    Online poll results are easily manipulated and, in my opinion, should never be taken seriously.

    To start manipulating the results, all you need is to is vote on the poll using each of the browsers you have. With Firefox, IE, Chrome, Safari and Opera installed, you can vote 5 times on an issue within a minute of first seeing the poll which grabs your attention. I’m sure there are plenty of people who feverishly do this.

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    4 days ago
  • Stop experimenting on kids
    The trouble with the Charter school model is that it is a publicly funded experiment on children. The National Government has consistently put its desire to open charter schools ahead of the safety of the children in them, ignoring repeated… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    5 days ago
  • Bank puts the squeeze on mid Canterbury farmers
    News that an unnamed bank in Ashburton has put a receiver on notice over financially vulnerable farmers will send a chill through rural New Zealand, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The Government needs to work with  New Zealand’s banks… ...
    5 days ago
  • Key is trading away New Zealand land and homes
    John Key yesterday admitted what National dishonestly refused to confirm in Parliament last week – he is trading away New Zealand’s right to control who buys our homes and land, says Opposition leader Andrew Little. “The Prime Minister must now… ...
    5 days ago
  • Razor gang takes scalpel to health
    Plans by the Government to take a scalpel to democratically elected health boards are deceitful and underhand, coming just months after an election during which they were never signalled, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says “Leaked documents reveals a radical… ...
    5 days ago
  • Spin lines show a department in chaos
    Corrections Spin Doctors sending their place holder lines to journalists instead of responding to serious allegations shows the scale of chaos at the department over the Serco scandal, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “As more and more serious allegations… ...
    7 days ago
  • Court ruling shows law should never have been passed
    A High Court ruling that a law banning prisoners from voting is inconsistent with a properly functioning democracy should be a wake-up call for the Government, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. In an unprecedented ruling Justice Paul Heath has… ...
    1 week ago
  • Judicial Review Gamble Pays Off for Problem Gambling Foundation
    Congratulations are due to the Problem Gambling Foundation (PGFNZ) who have won their legal case around how the Ministry of Health decided to award their contracts for problem gambling services to another service provider. Congratulations are due not just for… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Environmental Protection Agency appoints GE advocate as new CEO
    This week, the Environmental Protection Authority Amendment Bill passed its first reading in Parliament. The Bill puts protection of the environment into the core purpose of the Environmental Protection Authority. This month, Dr Allan Freeth, the former Chief Executive of… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    1 week ago
  • Charanpreet Dhaliwal death demands genuine health and safety reform
    The killing of a security guard on his first night on the job is exactly the kind of incident that National’s watered-down health and safety bill won’t prevent, says Te Atatu MP Phil Twyford. The coronial inquest into 22-year-old Charanpreet… ...
    1 week ago
  • Arbitrary sanctions hit children hardest
    Increasing numbers of single parents are being penalised under a regime that is overly focussed on sanctions rather than getting more people into work, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “Figures, obtained through Parliamentary questions show 3000 more sanctions,… ...
    1 week ago
  • Hekia just won’t face the facts
    Hekia Parata’s decision to keep troubled Whangaruru Charter school open despite being presented with a catalogue of failure defies belief, goes against official advice and breaks a Government promise to close these schools if they were failing, says Labour’s Education… ...
    1 week ago
  • No more silent witnesses
    Yesterday I attended the launch of a new initiative developed by and for Asian, Middle eastern and African youth to support young people to name and get support if there is domestic violence at home. The impact on children of… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • Single Use Plastic Bags campaign – Some wins and some green-washing
    As we near the end of Plastic Free July I’m nearing the conclusion of my Say No To Plastic Bag tour when I will have completed all 30 of my public meetings. The campaign was designed to work with community… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Single Use Plastic Bags campaign – Some wins and some green-washing
    As we near the end of Plastic Free July I’m nearing the conclusion of my Say No To Plastic Bag tour when I will have completed all 30 of my public meetings. The campaign was designed to work with community… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Minister must take responsibility for problem gambling debacle
    The Government’s handling of the Problem Gambling Foundation’s axing in a cost-cutting exercise has been ham-fisted and harmful to some of the most vulnerable people in society, Associate Health Labour spokesperson David Clark says.“Today’s court ruling overturning the axing of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour will not support TPP if it undermines NZ sovereignty
    The Labour Party will not support the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement unless key protections for New Zealanders are met, Opposition leader Andrew Little says.“Labour supports free trade. However, we will not support a TPP agreement that undermines New Zealand’s sovereignty. ...
    1 week ago
  • Coleman can’t ignore latest warnings
    Resident doctors have advised that a severe staffing shortage at North Shore Hospital is putting patients’ lives at risk, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “They say a mismatch between staffing levels and patient workloads at North Shore has… ...
    1 week ago
  • ACC must remove barriers to appeals
    The Government must prioritise removing barriers to justice for ACC claimants following a damning report by Acclaim Otago, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “ACC Minister Nikki Kaye must urgently scrap her flawed plan to remove claimant’s right to redress… ...
    1 week ago
  • Six months’ paid parental leave back on the agenda
    Six months’ paid parental leave is back on the agenda and a step closer to reality for Kiwi parents after Labour’s new Member’s Bill was pulled from today’s ballot, the Bill’s sponsor and Labour MP Sue Moroney says. “My Bill… ...
    1 week ago
  • Sole parents at risk of having no income
    New requirements for sole parents to undertake a reapplication process after a year is likely to mean a large number will face benefit cancellations, but not because they have obtained work, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “Increasing numbers… ...
    1 week ago
  • Juking the Welfare Stats Again
    Last week the government’s major initiative to combat child poverty (a paltry $25 increase) was exposed for what it is, a lie. The Government, through the Budget this year, claims to be engaging in the child poverty debate, but instead,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • OCR rate cut a result of flagging economy
    The Reserve Bank's decision to cut the Official Cash Rate to 3 per cent shows there is no encore for the so-called 'rock star' economy, says Labour's Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson.   "Today's interest rate cut comes off the back… ...
    1 week ago
  • Reboot to an innovation economy, an Internet economy and a clean economy
    In my short 33 years on this planet we’ve seen phenomenal technological, economic and social change, and it’s realistic to expect the next 33 will see even more, even faster change. You can see it in the non-descript warehouse near… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    1 week ago
  • Bill that puts the environment into the EPA passes first hurdle
    A Bill that puts the environment squarely into legislation governing the Environmental Protection Authority passed its first reading today, says Meka Whaitiri.  “I introduced this member’s bill as the current law doesn’t actually make protecting the environment a goal of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Key’s KiwiSaver deception exposed
    KiwiSaver statistics released today expose John Key's claim that the cutting of the kickstart payment "will not make a blind bit of difference to the number of people who join KiwiSaver” to be duplicitous, says Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson.  “Official… ...
    1 week ago
  • Minimum Wage Amendment Bill to protect contractors
    All New Zealanders should be treated fairly at work. Currently, the law allows non-employment relationships to be used to get around the minimum wage. This is unfair, says Labour MP David Parker. “The Minimum Wage (Contractor Remuneration) Amendment Bill, a… ...
    1 week ago
  • Bill raises bar to protect Kiwi farmland
    The Government’s rubber-stamping of every one of the nearly 400 applications from overseas investors to buy New Zealand farm land over the last three years proves tougher laws are needed, Labour MP Phil Goff says. “In the last term of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Costly flag referendum should be dumped
    John Key must ditch the flag referendum before any more taxpayer money is wasted, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “Millions of dollars could be saved if the Prime Minister called a halt to this hugely expensive, and highly unpopular, vanity… ...
    1 week ago
  • Nats letting Serco off scot free
    Government members have prevented Parliament’s Law and Order select committee from getting answers out of a senior Serco director about the fight clubs being run at Mt Eden prisons, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “At today’s Law and Order… ...
    1 week ago
  • Charter school experiment turns into shambles
    The National Government’s charter school experiment has descended into chaos and it’s time for Hekia Parata to stop trying to cover up the full extent of the problems, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The Education Minister must release all… ...
    1 week ago

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