web analytics
The Standard

On the accuracy of online polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 25th, 2013 - 30 comments
Categories: polls, privatisation - Tags:

The proportion on people who have pre-registerd for Mighty River Power, according to the Stuff poll:

mighty river power prereg

Reality:

mighty river power prereg 2

(440,000 pre-registrations, well short of the half a million the Right was touting)

Methinks the readership of newsites leans significantly to the middle class and elite.

Out of interest – about 70% of pre-registrations became people who actually bought shares in the Contact sale – 180,000 people. A further 1% of the population didn’t pre-register but bought later. Today, less than 2% of Kiwis own Contact shares.

30 comments on “On the accuracy of online polls”

  1. Lanthanide 1

    The second graph, if anyone else is trying to work out what it is showing because it isn’t properly labelled, is raw # of people who have pre-registered, out of the total population. The scale across the bottom is millions of people, eg the population of NZ.

    • UpandComer 1.1

      That little line would still be bigger then that other line for people signing a bought and paid for fake petition.

  2. pmofnz 2

    Second graph ‘well short of half a million’. Do you have a credible link for that slur attributed to the Right?

  3. Watching 3

    Both sides of the argument are using illogical stats to prove their point. No wonder the population of NZ is getting bored.

    I thought Norman’s press release over the weekend was weak: that because only 10% of the population pre-registered then 90% of the population is against assets sales. On that same logic you could argue that as the Green received 10% odd of the 2011 election vote (which at guess would be about 6% of the total population) then over 90% of the population does not support Green policy – which is also a stupid point to derive from the stats.

    Also on the pre-registered numbers (1) did you have to be over a certain age to pre-registered – linked to having an IRD number and (2) quite a few people I know have decided not to pre-registered as they don’t have the money and will be getting the investment via KiwiSave

    Back to the reality of online polls – they are fun things. If you believe in them, then I hope when somebody says to you next “I have an unbelievable deal for you” that you stop & have a coffee before making a decision.

    • Lightly 3.1

      anyone NZer could pre-register, including kids.

    • felix 3.2

      “Also on the pre-registered numbers (1) did you have to be over a certain age to pre-registered – linked to having an IRD number “

      Anyone could register anyone.

      You could register your kids. You could register your dog. You could register the leaders of the Labour and Green parties FFS.

      No IRD numbers required.

      • Ed 3.2.1

        Given that the rules appear to have been changed “on the hoof” as it were to give those who have pre-registered higher allocations, those in the know may well have pre-registered in the names of each of their family, each trust, and combinations of these – any combination which could be allocated shares and then sell them to a sensible holding for the wider family. that is assuming National do the predictable and under-price to assure a “success”. So 440,000 pre-registrations may only represent say 400,000 individuals. We will never know how many ‘rogue’ pre-registrations there are (such as that for David Shearer) just to get the numbers up . . .

        • felix 3.2.1.1

          “So 440,000 pre-registrations may only represent say 400,000 individuals.”

          Or 220,000 individuals registering for 2 people.

          Or 100,000 individuals, another 100,000 registering for 2, and 35,000 registering for 4.

          etc etc.

  4. Adrian 4

    The 10% is about the upper level of the long term share ownership numbers in NZ. Normally it is only about 7% but rises temporarily after big offers like this. Wealth Transfer 101. Thieving arseholes.

    • Raymond a Francis 4.1

      Thieving arseholes” because they can afford to buy the shares?
      We have a lot of people talking about all NZers owning these asserts but how many are net tax payers
      Most of the protesters don’t appear to fall into the category being to young for starters

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        Civilisation started to go down hill when we stupidly expanded the vote beyond property owning Christian men of good (tax paying) standing.

        PS people paying for stolen or dubious goods with cash bear some culpability don’t they?

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.2

        Most of the protesters don’t appear to fall into the category being to young for starters

        The sad thing is that the generation which is 50+ has been actively thieving from NZs young for a couple of decades now.

        Key, English, Joyce. How much did they have to pay for their educations? Were they always able to find good paying jobs over the summer holidays which let them save up enough money for the following full year at uni? And when they bought their first house…how much did it cost, perhaps a whole 4x or 5x the median wage?

        • Tim 4.1.2.1

          Please don’t include the ENTIRE generation – though I agree that all those Onslow College contemporaries of mine – most anyway, professing socialist, or left wing leanings – now Pulp magazine editors, media commentators, spin doctors, bankers, Munstas of the Krearn (etc.) probably fit your stereotype (with some justification).
          I used to always be suspicious of them when ‘flatting’ (to coin a quaint old term), when most used to take their washing home to mumsy at weekends.
          Tragic specimens now the most of them! Generally: paunchy, grey haired and unhappy white old men chanting the very same racist taunts at the breakdown in society my great grandparents once did. (Funny too how majority of their kids have turned out absolute fuckups).
          Pagini beware!

          • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.1.1

            Please don’t include the ENTIRE generation

            Understood. I have several excellent mentors that I respect within that generation; sadly too many others however seem rather more privileged, self serving and narrowly conscious in their attitudes.

      • Adrian 4.1.3

        I’m 63 and almost all of my contemporaries are upset at this wealth transfer i.e, theft. What a lot of people don’t realise is that the foregone returns to the Treasury coffers have to be replaced from elsewhere. If only 7% of NZers can afford to buy shares and hence profit from same, the shortfall in tax is made up from all taxpayers therefore subsidising what will almost certainly eventually be large fund mamagers. Stupid, stupid policy.

  5. vto 5

    I just love how floating the power companies means less kiwis end up owning them.

    Great.

    Well done Nats, you fucking bozos.

    • Draco T Bastard 5.1

      I just love how floating the power companies means less kiwis end up owning them.

      And that those few who do end up owning the power companies end up with unearned wealth from everyone else.

  6. pollywog 6

    If all those 400k kiwi mums and dads blow their wad on Mighty River, who is going to buy up the next round of shares ?

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Godman Sachs. Using money printed by the US Fed.

      • SpaceMonkey 6.1.1

        +1… Even if it’s not an in-yer-face Goldman Sach-style pump and dump IPO (e.g. Facebook), I’m picking the shares will still initially fall post-IPO, perhaps based on some new information that we’ll be told was unforeseen, e.g some debt that was moved off the balance sheets temporarily to make the books look better.

        It will be enough to panic Ma and Pa investor into selling and Goldman and the rest will be waiting in the wings to vacuum them up – having probably also made a nice little windfall shorting the share price along the way.

        Within 5-10 years the power companies will have shareholdings that look like Fletcher, nothing remotely NZ-owned about them.

  7. AsleepWhileWalking 7

    Is anyone else thinking this is starting look like a pump’n’dump?

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pumpanddump.asp

    Easy to get names from electorial roll.

  8. Ant 8

    Don’t see why registering is automatically equated to supporting asset sales – most people seem to see it as registering for easy money/returns.

    • Ed 8.1

      Or for encouraging the government to set the price as high as possible – we know there will be an element of give-away, but if they think it will be over-subscribed they may actually feel they have to avoid too big a rush as that would imply the price was too low . . .

    • Tim 8.2

      A point I’d been trying to make way back when. Some even have more noble intention other than
      “registering for easy money/returns.”

  9. Rich 9

    They pretty much give themselves away with their “alternative online census”:
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8373937/Alternative-census-what-you-told-us

    See Q.23 34% earning over $100,000 (for the general population, it’s below 5%).

  10. Richard 10

    Online poll results are easily manipulated and, in my opinion, should never be taken seriously.

    To start manipulating the results, all you need is to is vote on the poll using each of the browsers you have. With Firefox, IE, Chrome, Safari and Opera installed, you can vote 5 times on an issue within a minute of first seeing the poll which grabs your attention. I’m sure there are plenty of people who feverishly do this.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Charter application skew assists rich American
    The Government has skewed the latest round of charter school applications to assist an American millionaire’s goal of ‘revolutionising” New Zealand’s education system, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. ACT Leader David Seymour and Ngāi Tahu’s Sir Mark Solomon in… ...
    27 mins ago
  • Key’s refugee response at odds with Kiwi traditions
    John Key’s response to the current refugee crisis is out of step with New Zealand’s tradition of pulling its weight internationally, says Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer. “In 1999, under a National Government, New Zealand accepted more than 400… ...
    2 hours ago
  • John Key: where is your conscience?
    The Prime Minister’s refusal to raise the refugee quota in the face of an international humanitarian crisis shows a lack of empathy and moral leadership, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “There are times in politics when you are faced with… ...
    3 hours ago
  • Report highlights National’s poor funding decisions
    The Government’s poor coordination between its transport strategy and the needs of the regions has been highlighted in a new report by Local Government New Zealand, Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Local Government was forced to write its Mobilising… ...
    22 hours ago
  • Government wakes up to Opotiki Harbour
    John Key is expected to finally announce Government support next week for the Opotiki Harbour development, says Labour Economic Development spokesperson David Clark. "While it is astonishing that it has taken seven years for the Government to commit to this… ...
    1 day ago
  • New figures show speculators rampant
    New figures released by the Reserve Bank show there’s been an explosion in mortgage lending with most of the growth going to property investors, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. Reserve Bank data shows mortgage lending was up 6 per… ...
    2 days ago
  • Spring is here – not pollen your leg
    It’s the first day of spring, and many people will be thinking about getting stuck into the weeds in the garden ready for planting. This year September is also Bee Aware Month. While there is a lack of movement from… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    2 days ago
  • Government must do more to help global refugee crisis
    John Key must urgently increase our refugee quota and let New Zealand play its part in helping address the tragic humanitarian crisis unfolding around the world, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “The refugee crisis in countries like Lebanon and Austria… ...
    2 days ago
  • The latest equal pay case – Go the Midwives
    ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    2 days ago
  • Key’s threat to veto premature
    John Key’s threat that he might use a financial veto against the Bill that will introduce 26 weeks Paid Parental Leave is premature and based on inflated costings, says the bill’s sponsor, Labour ‘s Sue Moroney.  “The Government keeps saying… ...
    3 days ago
  • Reflections on the plastic bag tour
    After a marathon public tour around New Zealand that took me to 29 different places around New Zealand from the far north of Kaitaia to the deep south of Invercargill to talk about phasing out plastic bag use, I wanted… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    3 days ago
  • Labour celebrates Tongan language and diversity
    Tongan Language Week is a timely reminder of the importance and beauty of our Pacific culture, identity and language in New Zealand, says our first Tongan born, Tongan speaking MP Jenny Salesa.  The theme for Tongan Language Week in 2015… ...
    3 days ago
  • Privatising CYF about ideology not care
    John Key’s suggestions today that Child Youth and Family could be privatized will be a terrifying thought for New Zealanders already dealing with the mess created in private prisons and plans to sell our state houses to Australians, Opposition Leader… ...
    3 days ago
  • Govt must make most of Jetstar competition
    Government agencies should pledge to always buy “the best fare of the day” to maximise competition between Jetstar and Air New Zealand and ensure savings for taxpayers while boosting services to regional New Zealand, Labour’s Transport Spokesperson Phil Twyford says.… ...
    3 days ago
  • Time for inquiry into petrol margins
    It’s time for an inquiry into petrol companies as margins are once again at the high levels that prompted concerns late last year, says Labour's Energy Spokesperson Stuart Nash. "Over the December January holiday period, petrol importer margins jumped to… ...
    6 days ago
  • More talk as Auckland congestion worsens
    The main impact of the Government’s agreement with Auckland Council today will be simply to delay still further decisions needed to relieve the city’s traffic congestion, says Labour’s Auckland Issues Spokesperson, Phil Goff. “Government has been aware for more than… ...
    7 days ago
  • Serco inquiry extended
    A two month delay to the Government investigation into prison fight clubs shows the extent of problems within the Serco circus, says Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “My office received a tsunami of complaints so I’m not surprised the terms… ...
    7 days ago
  • Truck Shops ignore consumer laws
    A damning Commerce Commission report out today highlights the failure of the Government to protect poor and vulnerable families from unscrupulous truck shops, says Labour’s Consumer Affairs Spokesperson David Shearer. “The report found that 31 out of 32 firms it… ...
    7 days ago
  • Taihoa at Ihumatao says Labour
    Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford has called on the Government to rethink its controversial Special Housing Area in Māngere. Auckland Council is today meeting to discuss the development which borders the Otuataua Stonefield Historic Reserve. This project is to get… ...
    1 week ago
  • Figures suggest National deliberately excluded farming
    Figures showing the dairy industry would be categorised as high risk if there were a further five severe injuries within a year, strongly suggests National designed its flawed system to deliberately exclude farming, Labour’s spokesperson for Labour Issues Iain Lees-Galloway… ...
    1 week ago
  • Bleak report on the state of our children
    A damning conclusion by the Children’s Commissioner today that ‘we don’t know if children are better off as a result of state intervention, but the indications are not good’ should make fixing CYFs a top priority for this Government, says… ...
    1 week ago
  • Dodgy data used to justify axing KiwiSaver kickstart
    National’s agenda to run down KiwiSaver has become even clearer from a scathing critique of the Government’s justification for axing the $1000 kickstart, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Since National came to power they have not only continually undermined… ...
    1 week ago
  • Unsecure website risks Ashley MoBIEson hack
    Experts have raised security concerns that vulnerabilities in MoBIE’s half million-dollar website could lead to a possible Ashley Maddison-style hack, says Labour’s Economic Development spokesperson David Clark. “The real issue here is not what data is immediately available, but what… ...
    1 week ago
  • Democracy still the loser in Canterbury
    The Government has demonstrated once again how arrogant and out of touch it is in denying Cantabrians the same democratic rights as the rest of the country, says Labour’s Environment spokesperson Megan Woods.  “The Environment Canterbury Bill which has been… ...
    1 week ago
  • Waiver cost still a mystery
    The Government still has no idea what it’s going to cost community and voluntary groups to get a waiver from the fees police will charge to carry out checks on their staff and volunteers, says Labour’s Community and Voluntary spokesperson… ...
    1 week ago
  • China exports fall 27 per cent in a year
    Exports to China have fallen by 27 per cent over the last 12 months - showing that the looming economic slowdown should have been expected by the Government, says Labour’s Economic Development Spokesperson David Clark. “The Chinese economic slowdown should… ...
    1 week ago
  • National should support all families for 26 weeks
    Families with multiple babies, and those born prematurely or with disabilities, are the winners from moves to extend paid parental leave to 26 weeks but the Government must give all babies the same head start in life, Labour’s spokesperson for… ...
    1 week ago
  • National’s health and safety shambles puts school camps at risk
    Reports that schools are considering scrapping student camps and tearing out playgrounds highlights just how badly National has managed its health and safety reforms, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Schools have been left completely in the dark about the… ...
    1 week ago
  • National’s asset stripping agenda hits schools
    National’s fire-sale of school houses and land is short-sighted, mean-spirited, and will have huge unintended consequences that we will pay for in years to come, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. Documents obtained by Labour show the Ministry of Education… ...
    1 week ago
  • Takahe massacre supposed to get all New Zealanders involved in conservation
    The Minister’s claim that a  botched cull of one of New Zealand’s rarest birds was a way of getting all New Zealanders involved in conservation is offensive and ludicrous, Labour’s conservation spokesperson Ruth Dyson says.  “An email from Minister Maggie… ...
    1 week ago
  • Serco circus rolls on with revelations of fight club practice
    Further revelations that a Serco prison guard was coaching inmates on fight club techniques confirms a fully independent inquiry needs to take place, says Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The Minister’s statement today that a guard was coaching sparring techniques… ...
    1 week ago
  • Government targets put ahead of students’ education
    The Government must urgently reassess the way it sets NCEA targets after a new report found they are forcing schools to “credit farm” and are undermining the qualification, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “A PPTA report released today says… ...
    1 week ago
  • ER patients in corridors as health cuts bite
    Patients are being forced to wait for hours on beds in corridors as cash strapped hospitals struggle to keep up with budget cuts, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King. “People coming to the emergency room and being forced to wait… ...
    1 week ago
  • Not too late to fix Health and Safety for New Zealand’s workers
    The Government and its minor party supporters are showing an arrogant disregard for workers’ lives by not agreeing to a cross-party solution to the botched Health and Safety bill, Opposition leader Andrew Little says. “Yesterday I wrote to the Prime… ...
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Council of Infrastructure Development
    Tēnā Kotou Katoa. Thank you so much for having me along to speak today. Can I begin by acknowledging John Rae, the President, and Stephen Selwood, the chief executive of the Council for Infrastructure Development. ...
    1 week ago
  • Reserve Bank points finger at Govt inaction
    In scathing criticism of the Government’s inaction, the Reserve Bank says Auckland housing supply is growing nowhere near fast enough to make a dent the housing shortage, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. Reserve Bank deputy governor Grant Spencer today… ...
    1 week ago
  • Chickens come home to roost on climate change
    The Government’s gutting of the Emissions Trading Scheme has caused foresters to leave and emissions to rise, says Labour’s Climate Change spokesperson Megan Woods. “The release of the Environmental Protection Agency’s Facts and Figures Report for 2014 on the ETS… ...
    1 week ago
  • Website adds to long list of big spends at MBIE
    The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s $560,000 outlay on its new website is further evidence of excessive spending by Steven Joyce on his pet project super ministry, Labour’s Economic Development spokesperson David Clark says.  “Hot on the heels of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Brownlee warned over EQC repairs but ignored them
    Gerry Brownlee was warned that EQC’s underfloor repairs weren’t being done properly by industry experts, the cross party working group and in public but he arrogantly ignored them all, says Labour’s Earthquake Commission spokesperson Clayton Cosgrove.  “Today’s apology and commitment… ...
    1 week ago
  • Serco wants in on state house sell off
    The Government must keep scandal plagued outsourcing company Serco away from our state housing after their disastrous record running Mt Eden prison, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. "Today it has emerged that at the same time Serco was under… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Come clean on Pasifika education centre
    Minister Peseta Sam Lotu-Iinga needs to come clean and tell the Pasifika communities if he’s working to save the Pasifika Education Centre or shut it down, Labour’s Pasifika spokesperson Su’a William Sio says.  “I’m gutted the Pasifika Education Centre funding… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Time for NZTA to work on alternatives to flyover
    The High Court decision rejecting the New Zealand Transport Agency’s attempts to build the Basin Reserve flyover must now mean that NZTA finally works with the community on other options for transport solutions in Wellington, Grant Robertson and Annette King… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Shiny new system leads to record truancy
    Record high truancy rates shows the Government’s much-vaunted new attendance system is an abysmal failure, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Data released today shows truancy rates have spiked more than 15 per cent in 2014 and are now at… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Woodhouse wrong about quarries
      The Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Michael Woodhouse was wrong yesterday when he said limestone quarries were covered by the farcical Health and Safety legislation, says Labour’s Associate Labour spokesperson Sue Moroney.  “He said he ‘understood’ limestone quarries… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Taxpayers money spent on culling one of our rarest birds
    It beggars belief that four endangered takahe were killed by incompetent cullers contracted to the Department of Conservation and the Minister must explain this wanton destruction, says Conservation spokesperson Ruth Dyson. “It must not be forgotten that there are only… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Housing NZ must immediately move family
    Housing New Zealand must immediately move a Glen Innes family whose son contracted serious and potentially fatal health problems from the appalling condition of their state house, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Te Ao Marama Wensor and community workers… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • No understanding of the value of overseas investment
     The Government has now admitted it has absolutely no idea of the actual value of foreign investment in New Zealand, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson Stuart Nash.  “It is crucial that the Government starts to understand just what this overseas… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Another bridges bribe from Simon Bridges
    Simon Bridges is embroiled in another bridges-for-votes controversy after admitting funding for a replacement bridge in Queenstown is “very much about… the 2017 election”, Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Transport Minister is today reported as telling Queenstown locals… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Saudi tender process reeks of SkyCity approach
    The tender process for the $6m investment in a Saudi sheep farm reeks like the SkyCity convention centre deal and once again contravenes the government’s own procurement rules, says Labour’s Export Growth and Trade spokesperson David Parker. “The $6m contract… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Maori Party should stand up for workers
    The Government’s proposed Health and Safety Reform Bill does not go far enough to protect those in specific industries with the highest rates of workplace deaths, says Maori Development Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta. “We are told that Maori workers are more… ...
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere