Written By: - Date published: 5:32 pm, July 20th, 2008 - 53 comments
Categories: articles, election 2008 -
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Rod Oram can nearly always be relied upon for insightful analysis that takes debate a step further. In the SSTimes today he asks:
“are we being realistic about the current state of the nation? Each person will have his or her own view. But if, as individuals and a society, we’re gloomier than the facts warrant, we will undermine ourselves. We will fail to acknowledge and build on what we have achieved, fail to be confident and ambitious about the future. Then our worst fears will become reality….
By any realistic measure the economy today is far stronger, more flexible and resilient than it was then; conditions at home and abroad are much better; and New Zealand’s opportunities in the world far greater.
Failing to believe that will lead to three tragic outcomes: companies will sharply cut their investment in themselves, they will stunt their development; as a result, they will make the recession deeper and longer, they will be weaker when the upturn comes; and we will fulfil our worst fears about the New Zealand economy. Thus, now more than ever, this is a time for realism, confidence and ambition.”
With the political hothouse of Parliament returning this week, and Labour looking to convince the electorate that they can offer an agenda for change (whilst maintaining stability), let’s see whether they can also be convincing that we have room for optimism even in the depths of winter.
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I am firmly of the opinion that kiwis are talking themselves into a recession, and if they spent less time taliking about how badi things are and more working harder to get on with their lives, they would fare much better.
You might be right, but I don’t think you can ignore the huge number of people who ill advisedly geared way up on real estate and are now going to take a dive, along with the impact of high petrol costs.
Still, I completely agree that some stupid bunker mentality will only make things worse. Pushing ahead and making up for the lost ground is the solution – I’m just not sure the majority of the population have the vision or the enthusiasm.
But then again, I’m on a downer at the moment, so probably best to ignore me.
I think the problem is as follows:
Perception:
House prices are collapsing because interest rates are too high and we’re going into an economic slowdown.
Reality:
House prices are collapsing because real estate is a lousy investment vehicle and you’re an idiot who bought into the hype.
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We need to isolate our economy from oil price fluctuations. Unfortunately efforts in that direction are also hampered by idiots. Probably the same idiots who said real estate could never go anywhere but up.
We need to work out a way to reduce the ability of speculating leeches to mess with our currency. Easiest way I can think of is to just adopt the aussie dollar!
Orams article is good, but I was actually really impressed by Simon Louisson’s article yesterday here.
In closing – people, stop investing in housing and finance companies. Get rich quick schemes that add no value at all can never work! What the hell did you think was going to create the wealth you were going to bank?
ARGH!
what recession ?
I suspect only when unemployment reaches a high level and morgagee sales skyrocket can we say the shit has hit the fan.
But until it does, well life is still pretty damn sweet!
(so what if we drink a little less alcohol, walk a bit more, stop smoking and eat less diary products, probably the best thing for most of us, health wise)
People never listen to talk like Orams column today at times like this.
The herd is stampeding and more fool the person who stands in the middle shouting “change direction, change direction!!!”.
re the economy, a few months back it was serious gloooom (headlines and stats are always late naturally, so only reported after the event). My coal face suspects a very minor flutter of a lift in the last week or two.
Provided the entire global financial system doesn’t implode like it almost certainly will.
Simon – that’s all very roses and sunshine, but it’s ultimately the same thinking that said “hey, lets worry about negative equity on our 100% mortgage when it happens, for now life’s pretty sweet!
vto – yup. That was me early last year when my friends were buying houses. I like them too much to say “I told you so”, but it depressed me that people who I KNOW are quite smart can be so dumb.
T-Rex,
Property in not an entirely lousy investment vehicle. I recall some statistic from somewhere years ago that about 80% of all wealth in this country has been generated from property.
The problem is that in the last decade the sharp suits have sold it as a ‘get rich quick’ scheme to the masses and you are right it was always bound to end in tears. Some individuals who worked hard and smart DID get rich quick, but overall most will inevitably get caught when the bubble inevitably burst.
Property is good at is getting rich SLOW. If you are prepared to buy intelligently, gear conservatively, look after your properties, slog it out for the long haul, give your tenants good value and manage your cash flow then you will generally see a worthwhile returnover a period of 10-20 years. But you mustn’t get seduced by the ups and downs of the property cycle.
The main reason property is so popular is that if you do it right, you are prepared to put the work in, and manage your portfolio intelligently then it is a relatively safe investment compared to the shonky history of our stockmarket.
Thank you Rod Oram. And I hope Chris Trotter’s effort today gets published.
The New Zealand Sucks Party has a lot to answer for. Michael Cullen will be judged as one of NZ’s best finance ministers, and Clark will deservedly bolt in come November.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4624737a10.html
has dur4brains (dad4justice) been a naughty boy ?
Dan, I thought Trotters column today was disgusting and will send voters the opposite way to what he intended. It was nasty, bitter, spiteful, tall poppy knocking, typical “rich prick” commentary which, to me, indicated a deep misunderstanding of people and society.
It was exactly the type of comment that has turned people away from labour imo.
Trotter’s eloquence with language and argument hides some serious flaws in his intellect and his analysis of NZers. Exposed today.
2c
Red – yup, I agree completely, but most of those buying into the property market (in the last few years – the ones who are going to get hurt in the coming year or two) weren’t doing so on the basis of rental returns… or if they were they’re godawful at maths.
But likewise, can completely understand peoples reluctance to go for the sharemarket. I bet if we shot Faye and Richwhite it’d do a bit to increase the level of perceived accountability for corruption. As well as being totally deserved.
Vto – agreed. It was divisive and stupid. He didn’t seem to grasp the significance of the 35% statistic he mentioned. That’s about 1.4 million people Chris – good job.
All it might do is give some people pause about what Nationals real policy objectives are, but basically I thought it was crap.
He’s no Rod Oram, that’s for sure.
I would disagree T-rex. Every time Key speaks he is dog whistling one of the groups that Trotter lists. It may be 35% but there is another 25% who have not committed. Between Oram and Trotter, there is clear territory for Labour to continue down the middle way.
the trouble with the nats is they are not forthright and cant handle a spade being called a spade. the tories were profligate with power last time. they really cant handle it responsibly and when they get called for it they start squealing like stuck little pigs.
Dan – Maybe you’re right, and maybe I’m just still a little too young and idealistic to write off 35% of NZ’ers as selfish idiots.
Especially since I firmly believe that the right holds no monopoly on selfishness or stupidity – by any fair and reasonable standard i’d have to conclude that 70% of NZ are stupid and selfish.
‘Course, more than 50% of the US voted for GWB.
That’s just a bit too depressing for a sunday night.
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Ok – so I’m just depressed now.
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When you look at the record of like Federated Farmers, and the various employer associations, Trotter is dead to rights. The problem is that while what Trotter writes is true in general the significant portion of farmers and wealthy people who do not behave the way he describes will be hurt and angry… and they will be the very ones he should not be alienating.
So while I sympathise with his underlying ideas and agree with much of the article, in terms of useful political polemic it was probably counterproductive. Sometimes Trotter hits the mark perfectly, and other days he’s off target. Today was an off day.
Trotski’s column sums up perfectly the bitterness and envy of the left.
I hope he keeps it up though as kiwi’s hate being pigeon holed like that and any farmers or self-made people thinking of voting labour will quite rightly think twice about it after reading that bile.
mike, do you have 1.399999 million friends perchance?
Most people hate being pigeon holed, and you just called about 1.5 million of them bitter and envious. Not the sharpest tool in the shed.
“has dur4brains (dad4justice) been a naughty boy ?”
A typical cowardly spineless lefty / commie / simple Simon comment, who thrives on dilapidated social morals and values !!
Get a life creep !!!
Where are these “commie” comments coming from? There is a certain pattern from the bloggers of the right that seem to be following a prompt sheet from Crosby Textor. The last “commies” were Mao (he met Muldoon and died a few days later), and the Russkies who knocked over the wall and are likely to be the oil baron capitalists of the future. Ken Douglas was our most prominent commie, and he is now a much praised New Zealander .
You are a sad case, Dad.
mike,
From time to time I get to sit on the commuter train from Masterton and some of the conversation I overhear from various ‘farming types’ conforms exactly to the stereotype Trotter writes about. What he writes about the calcivirus, the ‘fart tax’, and land access issues is factually correct. And these are issues that Federated Farmers were in up to the eyeballs.
When writing about ‘the rich’ he is on less solid ground, but the examples he gives are real all the same.
The ECA ripped up workers rights and stole billions from them, setting back wage growth for a decade.
Far too many landlords cheerfully wrack-rented their tenants when the accomodation supplement came along. In many provincial towns these heartless bastards were making 20-30% plus returns off rundown hovels that should have been remodelled with bulldozers.
And his point about the wealthy resenting every cent of tax they pay can be seen in the light of all the tax minimising, rorting and avoidance schemes (Winebox anyone?) that we have seen over the decades. And National’s longtime theme of ‘tax cuts’ structured to benefit the richest at the expense of all the rest of us.
As for the ‘reactionaries’ … one word… Kiwiblog.
T-Rex, I’m making the comment on a left blog not in the Sunday paper, hell 25 people read this blog regularly and they ain’t undecided voters.
Trotski called on hels to step down a few months ago and after todays piece I think he might be CT’s latest recruit.
BTW – will The Standard resume posts on the polls now that labour have scabbed a few green votes in the latest results?
[lprent: You could ask Tane. He usually does the posts on polls. But I think he has been busy recently.]
Dan,
Nah, the ‘commie’ line is just standard D4J drivel that he comes out with when he looses self control.
At the same time Simons stupid dig over the fire in Levin is totally out of bounds. Unless he’s has moved recently I didn’t think D4J lived anywhere near Levin.
mike – well in that case you’re presumably including me in your categorisation. Love to know who you think I’m envious of, and why.
Bitter – yes, a little, just at the moment. I’m fed up with trying to convince stupid people of the error of their ways, and the reason i’m bitter is that my morals won’t allow me to just abandon them to their misfortune so I keep paying for their mistakes. But I’m only fed up for now, I’ll get some enthusiasm back soon.
“looses self control.”
Reacting too insane comments in the real world is NOT losing control Redlux!
T-Rex,
Yeah fed up is feature of modern life, especially if you have any sensitivity to the myriad issues of injustice and exploitation around us. We really do live in a toxic society that values money and possesions above all else, and at the expense of both the planet we live on, and our own spiritual and social health. More than anything else we have been atomised, reduced to considering ourselves little blocks of individualistic ego whose sole purpose is consumption.
These people are not stupid, they are just asleep and lack the capacity to see what is happening around them. They have to be awakened first. Some will respond to a gentle shake but most will remain obstinately comatose until forced by outside circumstances.
In the Matrix everyone who was awake found it lonesome and hurtful. It is unavoidable.
D4J,
Ok so reacting is fair enough, but adults learn to breath through their nose for a while until the urge to respond to one stupid remark with an even more stupid one passes.
Cheers Red.
Flipside – blue jellybeans are disgusting.
I think D4J is from Christchurch and is a member of one of those New Zealand Republican parties. I don’t know what they call themselves now. Correct me if I’m wrong D4J.
You’re telling the story Quoth.
That would be ‘The Republic of NZ Party’. Attracting the idiot fringe radical munter vote since whenever they started.
d4j – I cannot believe you started a website called “jugs for justice”. Do you ever stop and WONDER why things don’t go your way in family court?
“hoop diggity dang it, why has justice forsaken me? Clearly not enough jugs – I’m so on it”.
D4J has his own blog. Interesting. I see we share a similar taste in music but very little else.
Hell the heats on me tonight and Jugs For Justice was started by my female friend Teri from California.
The Family Court will be held responsible in due time.
Time to go as the red acid is hurting.
Bitter – yes, a little, just at the moment. I’m fed up with trying to convince stupid people of the error of their ways, and the reason i’m bitter is that my morals won’t allow me to just abandon them to their misfortune so I keep paying for their mistakes. But I’m only fed up for now, I’ll get some enthusiasm back soon.
T-rex, we have a lot in common (I suspect I’m older and tireder). Pace yourself – it’s a marathon not a sprint. Don’t burn out. Keep hoping!
Yeah, that dang ‘ol family court. I don’t dispute that some of their rules are stupid and discriminatory, but you think you’re helping your case?
I don’t care who started it. You’re promoting it. Why don’t you change the name of your trust? ‘Children need parents’ is so last year. Liven it up a bit. “Children need parents – and jugs!”.