Comments on: Phil Twyford not seeking Mt Albert nomination

By: Lew

Lew — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 22:07:42 +0000

Toad, you misoverestimate Tanya’s potential. Her arguments have historically consisted of “I’m entitled to my opinion”.

By: David Farrar

David Farrar — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 21:24:19 +0000

Umm nonsense Russell. Kaye got around 3,700 more votes than Wong did in 2005 and the percentage of the vote increased by around 10%.

By: Sarah

Sarah — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 10:44:39 +0000

Shearer makes sense – very good value. But what happened to Labour’s much-vaunted “rejuvenation”? And wouldn’t they be better to save him for 2011?
Regardless of the outcome of the selection, let’s take this chance to check out some solid young candidates and keep them in mind for the future. I can think of at least three I’d like to see in Wellington.

By: Gareth

Gareth — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 04:43:47 +0000

Shearer gets the Mt Albert seat now, and you have a better looking Labour caucus in advance of 2011.
Twyford waits for SuperCity to be a mess at introduction (which it will be no matter how long-term successful it is), blames it on National and takes Auckland Central.

By: Danyl Mclauchlan

Danyl Mclauchlan — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 04:26:34 +0000

Labour’s focus groups in the electorate asked questions about celebrity candidates so I guess it’s possible they have some game-changing card up their sleeve.

Whoop there it is.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10567961

By: Judy

Judy — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 03:43:03 +0000

But why waste Phil Twyford on Mt Albert? Auckland Central is going to be a real battle in 2011, and he would be the ideal person to contest it. As a sitting MP his profile will be higher, particularly amongst Labour voters who need wooing back into the fold. Nikki Kaye has a formidable team around her, and is not afraid to put in the hard yards. One of my neighbours got no less than three visits from her!

A younger person who can mobilise the youth vote will strengthen Mt Albert for Labour. Those are the traditional non-voters, but they might turn out for one of their own. A massive “register and vote” campaign at Ak Uni and AUT could make quite a difference.

By: Paul Robeson

Paul Robeson — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 01:43:58 +0000

Kia Kaha Labour!

It’s time to take back Auckland – Central and the West

stand up those who are not afraid to take these guys on and who know their stuff

no more central casting candidates- we want some representation of the people by the people for the people of New Zealand!

By: Tim Ellis

Tim Ellis — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 21:22:29 +0000

I partially agree Steve. Mount Albert’s demographics are changing, and I don’t think long-term that it is a safe seat for Labour. Historically though it is a strong seat and organisationally with smart people like LP and on the numbers Labour have a clear advantage. If Labour win this time, and they should, then that MP will grow the majority in 2011.

By: Mark Webster

Mark Webster — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 20:05:39 +0000

I hope Phil is in good spirits about this and the party has handled this properly. He deserves to go far. He’d be a top MP for AK Central he’d be a top MP for anywhere, actually.
Labour cannot afford to lose Mt Albert. I think it would be a death blow.

By: lprent

lprent — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 19:55:29 +0000

About 45,000 on the roll. I think that there are about 48-50k potential voters

By: Danyl Mclauchlan

Danyl Mclauchlan — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 18:36:25 +0000

Most voters don’t even know who the current leader of the Labour party is – the idea that they’re going to change their electorate vote based on some occult MMP process that will eventually lead to Tizard – who is even more obscure than Goff! – getting back in is absurd.

Labour’s focus groups in the electorate asked questions about celebrity candidates so I guess it’s possible they have some game-changing card up their sleeve. If they don’t and they run some neophyte with zero name recognition then they deserve to lose.

By: Whacky Lefty

Whacky Lefty — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:40:12 +0000

Let me start my campaign now.

I live in Christchurch and have no knowledge of Mt Albert or Auckland and so promise to serve my elctorate as well as, if not better than, Brendon Burns does in Christchurch Central.

By: gobsmacked

gobsmacked — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:41:19 +0000

They would get Cam Calder.

If they selected a non-MP, they would get that candidate as the new MP (obviously). So if they do pick Lee, the logical conclusion is: National don’t have a better prospect than Cam Calder.

Doesn’t say much for their potential candidates, does it?

By: wren

wren — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:26:32 +0000

Between elections, the number of List MPs a party has does not change (leaving aside waka jumping).

Because Clark was an electorate MP, if a Labour List MP is elected in her place, Labour will bring in an extra List canddiate to replace that MP, who is now an electorate MP, no net gain for Labour.

If National puts up a List candidate and she (cough Melissa Lee cough) wins, she becomes an electorate MP and a list candidate is brough in to make up the list numbers. Net gain of 1 MP to National, loss of 1 to Labour.

Labour won’t put up a List MP as their candidate because of Tizard and National will because they could get (yet another) MP.

By: gobsmacked

gobsmacked — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:14:42 +0000

Quite right Steve. The “Tizard issue” is a short-term irrelevance, by comparison. The Labour by-election winner had better be a ministerial prospect.

Conversely, Melissa Lee would be better off losing this by-election by one vote, and becoming the Nats’ hard luck heroine. Then she can get a better seat for the general election. Whereas if she wins Mt Albert, she’ll certainly lose it in 2011. By 2014 the Nats’ list will be a bloodbath, as the pendulum swings.

History (not just in NZ) is full of by-election stars that won against the odds and then couldn’t keep the seat. It’s not a good career move.