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Polity: Herald poll mirrors Poll-of-Polls

Written By: - Date published: 11:33 am, December 20th, 2013 - 63 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

polity_square_for_lynnThese days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left. Rob Salmond at Polity has a look at the latest NZ Herald poll. It is no wonder that National’s PR people including Audrey Young are spinning randomly like tops on a rough surface…

National up less than a point over Labour + Greens

From your New Zealand Herald this morning:

  • National: 46.8%
  • Labour: 35.4%
  • Greens: 10.8%
  • NZ First: 3.9%

Polity’s poll of polls has a similar dynamic.

The Herald says this result shows the Maori Party holding the balance of power. I disagree, at least looking forward to the actual election.

The Maori Party’s delegation will very likely shrink, as they lose some of their electorate seats and their party vote stays low. New Zealand First, on the flip side, is a good bet to have a delegation of 6-8 MPs, despite sitting below the 5% threshold at the moment. (“Learning the lessons of history” and all that.)

Given this poll in December 2013, the best bet in November 2014 is that National and the Left Bloc remain more or less tied, and that Winston Peters gets to choose the Prime Minister. Despite all the angry words between him and John Key, I think there is a very real chance New Zealand First would opt for National in that situation. Second fiddle receives more baubles than third fiddle.

This landscape shaping up just like 1996 in some important ways. If voters want to change the government, their best choice is Labour, not New Zealand First.

63 comments on “Polity: Herald poll mirrors Poll-of-Polls”

  1. risildowgtn 1

    You forgot Mana,
    dont underestimate Mana or Hone

    • Murray Olsen 1.1

      While I find it hard to see Mana getting over 5% yet, they could get a couple more in to sit with Hone. I hope so, but as always, it’s what they’re doing out in the community that’s more important.

  2. red blooded 2

    It’s possible that Hone will be back, but will he have enough of a Party vote to bring anyone else in with him? Similarly, if JK has a cuppa with CC, it might bring in 1 or ( please no!) 2 Conservatives.

    I agree that Winston is more blue than red, partly out of political instinct (it’s where he started, after all, and he’s done this before when given a choice) and partly out of a sense of status. Let’s remember that in the past he has held Labour governments to ransom and demanded that the Greens be locked out. That’s a very unlikely scenario this time, so he may well turn to his friends in blue. It would be interesting to see whether he could accommodate a deal with CC or whether he would make similar status-driven demands of a National-led government as he has in the past with a Labour-led group.

    The big message from this poll seems to be that the left needs to grow its overall proportion of the vote. Will this lead to a middle-ground drift?

    • Fisiani 2.1

      The smart money on Ipredict suggests that the Conservatives will get 5.7% which will mean they would have at least 6 MP’s.

      • gobsmacked 2.1.1

        Fisiani

        If the Conservatives get 5.7% or more, I’ll pay $1,000 to a (non-political) charity of your choice.

        If they get less, you’ll pay $500 to a similar charity of my choice.

        Deal?

        • Fisiani 2.1.1.1

          I am not claiming that they will get 5.7% , Can you not read? If You have $500 to lose why not use your genius to put it smartly on Ipredict?

          • Pascal'sbookie 2.1.1.1.1

            You said it was the smart money.

            According to polls the conservatives haven’t moved a bit despite the recent coverage. The herald poll has them down to about half of where they consistently were 6 or so months ago.

            • Vagabundo 2.1.1.1.1.1

              The coverage wasn’t exactly the most flattering now, was it?

              • Pascal'sbookie

                The voters he’s after won’t be expecting flattering coverage of a true conservative (TM), not from the progressive socialist infested media. If he got coverage that din;t mock him, they would like him less.

                But he still can’t get a wee budge.

                There was an interview with him on the Ruminator blog. Well worth reading. The interviewer, Jackson James Woods, does a good job at getting/letting him talk. Craig might improve. But he’s always one idiot thing away being a liability.

                • lurgee

                  “The voters he’s after won’t be expecting flattering coverage of a true conservative (TM), not from the progressive socialist infested media”

                  That’s funny, but only marinally more funny than the continual bleating about media CONSPIRACY and BIAS around here. Yes, people, you’re almost as mad as Colin Craig.

                  “The interviewer, Jackson James Woods, does a good job at getting/letting him talk”

                  This is why I can not abide Kim Hill. She is continually interrupting, badgering and showing off what a Fierce Interviewer she is.

      • Colonial Viper 2.1.2

        After the Righties wasted millions backing ACT??? “Smart” money LOL

      • Lanthanide 2.1.3

        No, the obviously manipulated stock on iPredict guesses they’ll get 5.7% of the vote.

        You’re a sucker if you believe it. Just read the iPredict forums (apparently you don’t need a login) to see people suggesting an alternative binary contract of whether Colin will get a seat or not, simply because it’s very cheap to push that stock up over 5% and very expensive to push it back down.

  3. alwyn 3

    The only poll that is done regularly is the Roy Morgan one, which comes out every two weeks or so.
    If you are in the Labour I think that the trend that is showing up there really will frighten you.
    David Cunliffe was elected leader of the party on 15 September. If one looks at the polls after this date, each covering two weeks and with the first one being September 16-29 and the last Novermber 25-December 8, we see the votes for Labour being 37%, 37%, 35.5%, 32%, 34% and 30.5%
    National go 42%, 41.5%, 42%, 45.5%, 44.5% and 45%. The Green party go 11.5%, 12.5%, 11%, 12.5%, 11% and 14.5%.
    Thus, at the start the Lab/Grn vote was 48.5 and National 42. At the end they are even. That is not just a random swing but a definite trend.
    It appears that the more that the public see of David Cunliffe the less they like him. That seems to fit in with the fact that the least approving of him in the party are the caucus, who must know him the best.
    How low do the polls have to go before he is defenestrated?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 3.1

      Its election year Alwyn, labour just gets more publicity and around election time gets roughly equal billing with national.
      The last polls before the last election over predicted Nationals vote, and will do so next time. Actual result for National will be closer to 42%- which means with their minor support parties they are out, unless they do a deal with Winston

    • bad12 3.2

      Actually alwyn your analysis while quite clever suffers a fatal flaw which would simply leave ‘it’ lying bare as mere biased comment,

      The fact is, Cunliffe is horribly, and i believe deliberately, under-exposed by the New Zealand media across the whole spectrum,

      Instead of counting the %’s in the Roy Morgan, which have in the main shown the 2014 election will be tighter than the previous one you should look across the media for appearances by Cunliffe when compared in number and duration to those of Slippery the Prime Minister and there you will see a gross imbalance of coverage favoring the incumbent a situation that will change dramatically in the months leading up to the 2014 election,

      Helen Clark was also all but ignored by the media a year out from Her becoming the Prime Minister, something i doubt She cared diddly squat about as She traveled the country building support among the community un-reported upon by the mainstream,

      If the polls are correct in their stated level of support for NZFirst,(something i doubt simply based upon the darkest days for that Party still delivering it 4.8% of the vote in 2008), then i would suggest barring a miracle National in a close race will not be able to form a majority…

    • lurgee 3.3

      we see the votes for Labour being 37%, 37%, 35.5%, 32%, 34% and 30.5%
      National go 42%, 41.5%, 42%, 45.5%, 44.5% and 45%. The Green party go 11.5%, 12.5%, 11%, 12.5%, 11% and 14.5%.

      That just looks like typical variation around an actual level of support of around 34-35%; which is pitiful, but I don’t think the numbers are actually sinking … Still, numbers like that did for Shearer. Wonder how long before knives come out for Cunliffe? I love the left. Always on the attack, but never attacking the enemy.

      • alwyn 3.3.1

        A drop from 37% to 30.5% is twice the margin of error and there is a pretty steady decline over the 10 week period. I don’t think that that can be described as simple a variation around some mid-point.
        If you went 37%, 32%, 35.5%, 34%, 37% and 30.5% you might be able to say it of course but I don’t think so here.
        The Green numbers can be, but not the other two parties. National, with three at about 42% and then three later ones at about 45% seems to be a real increase also.
        I shall have to dig out some of my old Stats books and see what any test would say.

        • lurgee 3.3.1.1

          A drop from 37% to 30.5% is twice the margin of error

          Surely, the actual level of support would be in the middle? The high one and the low one are both natural variation, round an intermediate mean, or what ever clever numbers people call it.

          You’re doing what climate change ‘sceptics’ do when they claim there has been no warming for 17 years.

          I’m not suggesting Labour shouldn’t be desperate about their poll position – see my comments down thread – but the problem is that their numbers are stagnant, not that they are falling. A few more polls like this, and yeah, then there will be a problem. But you’re confusing statistical noise with a definite trend.

      • bad12 3.3.2

        Never attacking the enemy??? that is delusional, i suggest you have a read of the other Posts today…

  4. Enough is Enough 4

    “This landscape shaping up just like 1996 in some important ways. If voters want to change the government, their best choice is Labour, not New Zealand First.”

    However if the voters want to change the government, and ensure that real change is made to our society with the neo liberal wet dream being shot forever, they must vote Green.

    Any other option will return a government that maintains the status quo.

    Parker and English are cut from the same cloth.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 4.1

      Greens are for the status quo as well.

      Thats why Sue Bradford was shafted, no more scary radicals

      • bad12 4.1.1

        You are kidding right, we re talking of the MP who got awarded the ‘best behaved’ in the Parliament,

        What exactly was radical about Sue’s time in the Parliament, Met’s came from the exact same ‘radical’ back-ground as Bradford albeit without the carefully staged media events, i well remember one of those from the planning stage to the bashing on the gates of Premier House with fake paper batons,(you can guess the intention which was also discussed befor-hand)…

    • thechangeling 4.2

      And instead of being screened out, some newer members of the Labour team are as neo-liberal and elitist as they come!

  5. lurgee 5

    “These days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left.”

    By showing an increase in the vote for National, and a fall in the Labour-Green bloc-that-isn’t? By showing NZ First also down? That’s moving left? Come off it. Stop trying to spin straw into red gold.

    This poll is grim for Labour and the Greens. Two and a half terms under a useless government of clowns, a new leader, and the leftie bloc is still struggling to match National alone. If the economy does not tank (and that is largely down to Australia, China and the USA, not Bill English), and Key doesn’t actually start flicking the bird at people in public, I am very worried that they may get back in 2013.

    Frighteningly, the left may be relying on Winston getting above 5%.

    And if some combination of Labour-Greens-NZ First- Mana do manage to scrape together some sort of government, it will likely be a riven, short-lived, ineffective one.

    Which actually prompts me to wonder if the party bigwigs had already written off 2013 when they let Cunliffe win.

    Which shows I can be as crackpot paranoid as the rest of you.

    • gobsmacked 5.1

      I am very worried that they may get back in 2013

      Now that *would* be a snap election … ;)

      I’ve said it before, but it’s always worth repeating: every single poll in 2011 said National would govern alone. Every single one.

      That’s what Rob is hinting at with “learning the lessons of history”. Like nearly everyone else, he overestimated National’s support at the last election. Let’s plug that memory hole.

  6. Matthew 6

    Also no mention of Cunliffe’s dire performance in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. He is yet to surpass Shearer!

    It’s all looking a little desperate for the left in 2014 with the only hope being a cobbled together co-alition involving 4 or more parties.

    • Tracey 6.1

      lol… unlike a coalition of ACT and UF which collectively were wanted by fuck all of NZ… nothing cobbled there.

    • Francis 6.2

      Very hard to rank high in that poll when you have virtually no exposure in the media. Besides a few 5-10 second “sound bites”, there has been practically nothing directly from David Cunliffe in the media. At the same time, you have the right-wing bias media spewing a lot of crap about how “arrogant” he is (I think the editors accidently put him instead of John Key), and it’s not surprising people aren’t ranking him very highly.

      A few 15-20 minute interviews in prime-time (which would have to happen in election year), and I’d expect that to change.

  7. Ad 7

    David Cunliffe needs to snap his office and caucus out of a torpor.

    Twyford and Goff are the only other two of caucus firing. It is utterly stark that there is no consistent messaging coming out of Labour, no themes emerging, and the next opportunity seems to be the State of the Nation set piece in mid February next year (which again is only an echo of Key’s own speech not Cunliffe’s own initiative).

    His office appears not to have coherent message control, and Cunliffe is far too much the narrow politician, and not the wider leader that New Zealand needs him to be. It’s similar (but not as bad as) Brown: Cunliffe goes into 2014 with no momentum in the media or in the public mood.

    We fought damn hard to get him there, and this is piss poor reward for the effort. Don’t talk to me about ‘in the margin of the poll of polls either’. Wrong side of this ‘margin of error’ this time next year will see Key in for a third term.

    Plenty of people will say ‘give him time’ and “it gets better in election year’, or ‘too soon’. I say horseshit. Labour should have had sustained polling progress off fantastic government failures.

    Shape up Mr Cunliffe you are drifting. And the Party is drifting with you.

  8. Wayne 8

    The main thing you are missing (or ignoring) is that the Nats are finishing the year with a lot of good news, and that is starting the affect the mood of voters.

    A lot of the bad political news are already seen as last years stories, e.g. GCSB (which people have essentially forgotten since it does not actually affect anyone in any practical way), asset sales, National Standards, etc.

    It has been a little while since there was a significant bad economy story. Most recent stories are about growth, good agricultural prices, more housing starts, higher manufacturing, higher inwards migration, better prospects for employment, etc. It will extremely difficult for Labour to credibly argue that the Nats are hopeless economic managers.

    The one negative for the Nats is the Children’s Commissioner report, but for most people an upward swing in the economy is going to be seen to help children.

    In fact it is quite possible the Nats may improve their poll results in 2014, as the economy continues to build. Labour may well need an unpredictable event that is badly handled to reverse the trend.

    Now I appreciate govts can change when there is an economic upswing as in1999, but in that case the recession was 5 to 6 years in the past, and the govt looked a bit of a mess after the Nat/NZF coalition fell apart. John Key’s Cabinet looks vastly better organized than the situation going into 1999.

    In fact as the post indicates this is more like 1996, the recession is just over and Winston holds the balance. But the difference is that the Nats are only 5% off a majority, not 15% off a majority as in 1996.

    • Tracey 8.1

      you forgot to finish with

      Here ends the party political reprint for the National Party.

      And whoever said lying doesnt pay, never met the current members of the national Caucus (and hangers on)

      • Wayne 8.1.1

        Tracey,

        Just because I have a different view to you does not mean I am a liar. And I don’t suggest that about most left commenters unless they have made a factual error. Even then I would not say they are lairs. People make factual errors all the time. It does not mean they are liars. To lie means to say something knowing that it is not true. Opinion, or a particular interpretation, or error is therefore not a lie.

        In any event, my main point is that there is a lot of good economic news about. I did not say there was absolutely no bad economic news. Are you really suggesting the preponderance of economic news at the moment is basically bad (at least in terms that I have used).

        I can see the some might say high dairy prices are bad because of the environmental affects or that new house starts of the sort National encourages leads to more urban sprawl.

        • KJT 8.1.1.1

          Yes. The economy is looking up. It usually does when the world is coming out of a recession.

          And, A brighter outlook for the economy does favour the incumbent Government. Even if it is despite their policies.

        • Tracey 8.1.1.2

          I didnt call you a liar, and never intended to. I am referring to the current government and its hangers on who spin and spin and spin. I just dont share your view of good news. To me economic good news means that all people are lviing well, happy healthy and access to equal opportunity etc etc. I havent seen any such good news or anything int he last 30 odd years to suggest the news you consider is good will result in that.

          So yes, i am saying I havent seen any good economic news lately. I definitely havent seen any decent non partisan analysis of the so called good news either, and dont expect to.

          “To lie means to say something knowing that it is not true.”

          and to say something with wilful disregard for whether its true or not.

          yours is quite a narrow definition. I ought to have including misleading in my line.

          lying
          noun
          dishonesty, perjury, deceit, fabrication, guile, misrepresentation, duplicity, fibbing, double-dealing, prevarication, falsity, mendacity, dissimulation, untruthfulness Lying is something that I will not tolerate.
          adjective
          deceitful, false, deceiving, treacherous, dishonest, two-faced, double-dealing, dissembling, mendacious, perfidious, untruthful, guileful You lying, cowardly beast!
          deceitful straight, frank, reliable, straightforward, sincere, honest, candid, truthful, forthright, veracious

          • poem 8.1.1.2.1

            +1 Tracy

          • Bearded Git 8.1.1.2.2

            +100 Tracey. Agree about the spin.

            The problem is National are so good at the spin-Labour/Greens need to expose it as spin. I think Cunliffe has shown the ability to do this when interviewed recently on the asset sales issue. It’s also easier to expose spin in an election campaign when coverage of the major parties tends to be more even.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 8.1.1.2.3

            to say something with wilful disregard for whether it’s true or not.

            Oh my.

            Well said Tracey.

            …and then they (looking at you, Dr. Mapp) go and base policy on it.

    • Pascal'sbookie 8.2

      Well there is the auditor general saying she wants to take another look at Solid Energy, so that’s a thing.

    • gobsmacked 8.3

      Labour may well need an unpredictable event that is badly handled to reverse the trend.

      Well, I can give you three predictable events in 2014:

      - John Banks will be in court
      - Kim Dotcom will be in court
      - Colin Craig will be in the media

      Plenty of headlines there for National to enjoy.

    • geoff 8.4

      It has been a little while since there was a significant bad economy story. Most recent stories are about growth, good agricultural prices, more housing starts, higher manufacturing, higher inwards migration, better prospects for employment, etc. It will extremely difficult for Labour to credibly argue that the Nats are hopeless economic managers.

      Any good economic signs have occurred IN SPITE of National’s economic management. All of the economic structural imbalances that were in place at the start of National’s tenure are still here or have gotten worse. The lack of affordable housing continues to be the elephant in the room that National pretends doesn’t exist. EVERYBODY is cognizant of this problem and you imply that people are too stupid to see that National refuses to help the country with this problem??? Good grief.

      That’s completely hypocritical of you, Wayne, considering how many times you have accused lefties of being out of touch with ‘real people’. Not all of us have the same memory problems as your idol, JK, it’s not difficult to remember all of the massive failings of the National government. (Although it may be difficult to count them.)

      You don’t given New Zealanders much credit if you think they haven’t seen right through this National government by now.
      Kiwi’s have given the John Key Show plenty of chances and they’ve failed time and time again.
      GCSB, house/rent prices, asset sales, oil exploration, to name but a few. All big ticket items that, come election time, Greens/Labour will have no trouble reminding the electorate about how National dropped the ball.

  9. swordfish 9

    Right, my highly significant others…..

    Putting aside (admittedly highly important) niceties like whether or not certain small parties will make it back next year, I’ve done a quick bit of analysis comparing poll averages for late 2007 with 2008 General Election Results and for late 2010 compared with 2011 General Election Results.

    The upshot of it all is this:

    The Left Bloc vote at the 2008 Election was exactly the same as its poll average for Nov/Dec 2007.
    At the 2011 Election, the Left Bloc (quite similarly) was down just 1 point on its Nov/Dec 2010 poll average. In Nov/Dec 2013, the Left has been averaging just under 46% (bearing in mind there’s still one or two more polls to go before end Dec). So, we might expect 45-46% in 2014 (unless something just a bit dramatic happens).

    The Right Bloc vote at 2008 Election was 1.5 points down on their poll average for Nov/Dec 2007, while at the 2011 Election, their vote was down 3 points. In Nov/Dec 2013 – the Right are averaging 49% (Note: includes ACT, UF, Maori and Con). So, the Right Bloc might expect 46-47 %, all things being equal.

    Peters up 0.5% (2008 Election compared to late 2007 polls), and up 4% (2011 Election compared to late 2010 polls). So, quite possibly holding balance of power (depending on NZFirst taking 5+% and on what the hell happens to the minor parties of the Right). Haven’t bothered with the Election Calculator – leave it up to others…

    Then, again, there is a little variation between the 07/08 pattern and the 10/11 pattern (particularly with NZFirst and the Right), so 2014 Left/Right Bloc votes may vary slightly more from late 2013 polls than I’ve suggested.

    Your Obedient Servant and former Confidante, Mr M Montgomery-Swordfish.

    • Tat Loo (CV) 9.1

      So its not shifting the polls which will matter – but giving left voting people a reason to turn out. And right voters to stay at home.

      • swordfish 9.1.1

        Yep, I don’t want to come over all Calvinist and suggest it’s all set in stone a year out (hence my caveat), but, unless something dramatic happens, it looks like it’s gonna be pretty damn close and mobilising at least a portion of those Labour-leaning erstwhile non-voters will be crucial.

        One pleasing development – the MSM are increasingly comparing the Left and Right Blocs as a whole in their opinion poll analysis. Whereas, of course, in 08/11 they were grossly misleading voters by placing entire analytical emphasis on the wide support gap between National and Labour (FPP-style). Thus encouraging Labour supporters into non-voting (especially with Front-Page headlines like THE DOMPOST’s ‘Labour is Dog Tucker’).

        I do like to think though, that maybe, just maybe, the Nats underperformed at the 08 and 11 General Elections (relative to their poll ratings) because poor polling methodology exaggerated their support-levels. It’d be rather nice to think they’re actually languishing around the 40-42% mark (disguised by iffy polling) as we speak.

  10. rich the other 10

    Huge result for National ,
    Think about it , the last 6 months have been difficult for National but this poll points out the stupidity of labours tactics .
    The referendum and the wasted $9million which achieved NOTHING hasn’t gone down well with voters , Ask your self , what did it achieve , the bulk of the sell policy had already been implemented, what stupidity and it hasn’t gone unnoticed by voters.

    Next year so much will be on a roll, housing , motorway construction, Christchurch rebuild in full swing, farming booming ,oil exploration under way ,mining going ahead ,unemployment down, new schools, new hospitals etc it’s endless.

    This poll is Nationals low point, it’s just going to get better .
    Next year National will govern alone and the perennial knockers will be kicked into touch.

    • gobsmacked 10.1

      If they will govern alone, why does Key want to do electorate deals with ACT, United Future and the Conservatives?

    • swordfish 10.2

      No, my wonderfully pointless Tory friend,

      Let us take a little look at the Nats vote at the 2008 / 11 General Elections relative to what they were polling a year before.

      Late 2007, Nats averaged 49% in polls, 2008 General Election = 45% (so down 4 points).

      Late 2010, Nats averaged 52% in polls, 2011 General Election = 47% (so down 5 points).

      Late 2013, Nats currently averaging 46%, so 2014 General Election = 41-42% ?

      Certainly can’t rule that out, Big Fella.

      • poem 10.2.1

        Very nice analysis Swordfish

      • lurgee 10.2.2

        Terrifyingly, Swordfish, your figures suggest National will get 49% of the vote at the election … And in the longer term, they’ve increased their share of the vote in every election since 2002, so perhaps they will continue until they have 100%. The horror! The horror!

        You’ve quite ruined my day.

        • swordfish 10.2.2.1

          The good news is the Left Bloc are currently polling (on average) 46%. A year out from the 2008 and 2011 General Elections they were on 42% and 41% respectively. Vernon Small quite possibly nails it when he suggests It’ll be down to the wire, but probably National having a very slight edge. Which way you gonna jump, Winnie ?

          • Tat Loo (CV) 10.2.2.1.1

            And why have Labour been deliberately antagonising Dunne? It will be down to the wire, and Labour already chased away their MP who could beat Dunne.

            • swordfish 10.2.2.1.1.1

              Yeah, I’d agree that Labour certainly need to keep their options open. As irritating as Dunne can be, when your’e neck-and-neck it’s not a great tactic to deliberately anatagonise a potential lifeline. Having said that, the chances of a rapprochement are probably fairly slim. Remember, Dunne and the Maori Party were more than happy to go with Brash in 05, Winston and only Winston saved the day.

              I suspect the Nats in Ohariu will always do the pragmatic thing and candidate-vote Dunne if it’s in their party’s best interests. And as Wellington’s *wealthiest seat, it’ll always be Right-leaning in the party-vote and favour a Nat Government (even in 2002). You might almost say the Nats OWN Dunne, hook, line and sinker. He only exists at their pleasure.

              * Believe I’m right in that, but not entirely sure.

    • poem 10.3

      You’ve been breathing in too much noxious gas on planet key haven’t you rich the other. Given a lot of bad shit has happened in the last 3 years, what makes you think national could garner enough support to govern alone this time round, when they couldn’t achieve it 2011?

      • rich the other 10.3.1

        Well spotted poem,
        plenty of shit in the last period and that’s the point, National has held it’s support through difficult times, the out look for next year is brilliant .
        They can only gain support.

        Swordfish figures are historical and make no allowance for the boom times ahead, add in the support the greens are giving the government and you have a landslide victory for NATIONAL.
        BRILLIANT

        • swordfish 10.3.1.1

          BRILLIAAAAAANNNNNNNTTTTTTT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          Reminds me of a mindlessly enthusiastic character from THE FAST SHOW (mid 90s BBC Comedy Skit Series).

          Maybe, just maybe, young Richard, my boy, the Nats underperformed at the 2008 and 2011 General Elections (relative to their poll ratings) because poor methodology meant their support-level was systematically exaggerated. Our fine Tory chums may well, in fact, already be languishing around the 42% mark (disguised by iffy polling).

  11. finbar 11

    Dave, has to learn, to grow, when asked a question,less is enough,rather than more.Park his ego,its almost within our grasp,grasp the future its for ours to grasp.

    • Tat Loo (CV) 11.1

      Too much responsibility for one pair of shoulders, no matter how broad. When does Labour start announcing its renewal of caucus?

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    So Shane Jones is off. Retired from politics he says. Couldn’t give 100 percent to the cause so he did what he thought was best for the Party.Shane Jones has always been a polarising figure and never more so when...
    Greenpeace NZ blog | 24-04
  • The benefits of transparency
    Ministerial expenses were released today, and as usual, I spent an hour trawling through the credit card statements hoping to find evidence of Ministers rorting us. So what did I find? Nothing. No $1,000 a night luxury hotel rooms. No...
    No Right Turn | 24-04
  • Christchurch to use Auckland’s old trains?
    As the new electric trains roll out over the coming year or so, a question we don’t know the answer to is what will happen to the old diesel trains Auckland no longer needs. Of course we will need to...
    Transport Blog | 24-04
  • Access: Defective, deficient, deviant and delinquent
    As many NZ babies do, I developed eczema and asthma. My mother took me to various clinicians. I have vague impressions of kindly doctors with strange accents. In retrospect they were probably part of the Jewish diaspora - educated at...
    Public Address | 23-04
  • An FPP politician in an MMP world
    So, now that Shane Jones has gone, he's come clean about the reason: he didn't want to work alongside Russel Norman and the Greens. Which I think emphasises just how much of a throwback Jones was, and how unsuited he...
    No Right Turn | 23-04
  • Hard News: Friday Music: News from talented women
    As I may have noted once or twice, Janine and the Mixtape's Dark Mind EP is one of last year's overlooked local gems. Or perhaps not-so-overlooked now, given that her new video for 'Hold Me' was premiered this week on...
    Public Address | 23-04
  • Focus on housing costs, raise wages not interest rates
    "The increase in the Reserve Bank's interest rate, while expected, shows little imagination and will raise mortgage costs for home owners," says CTU economist Bill Rosenberg. “The focus should be on getting housing costs down, and raising wages to make...
    CTU | 23-04
  • One year on: progress made to prevent another Rana Plaza tragedy
    Date of Release: Thursday, April 24, 2014Body:  An official from one of the two global union bodies that negotiated the Bangladesh Accord on Fire and Building Safety, currently visiting New Zealand, says that the Accord continues to make big steps forward to ensure...
    First Union Media | 23-04
  • Update from Dr.Gevil
    We wanted to share with you a little fun....
    Gareth’s World | 23-04
  • Matauri Bay: There are certain stories that get under your skin
    There are certain stories that get under your skin, stories that no matter how many times you hear them somehow strike you in a way that you never forget, stories that become a very part of you. The story of...
    Greenpeace NZ blog | 23-04
  • Anit-fluoridation advertising deceptive
     Looks like the scientific fight-back against the misinformation coming from anti-fluoridation groups is having some success. This press release from the on-line Making Sense of Fluoride group. Anti Fluoridation Advertisements Rejected by The Advertising Complaints Authority Over the past week,...
    Open Parachute | 23-04
  • The Art of Letting Go
    via Porcupine Farm   While the big news with regard to the rebuild has been the scaling back of the Arts Precinct, this is just one part of a wider narrative that sees the grand plan unravelling. Since I wrote...
    Rebuilding Christchurch | 23-04
  • Joyce tells Otago to ship in more students
    Tertiary Update Vol 17 No 11 Tertiary education minister Steven Joyce is using threatened changes to university councils to bully the University of Otago to take more international students, says TEU national secretary Sharn...
    TEU | 23-04
  • New money for Māori innovation won’t cover cuts to Māori research
    Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga, New Zealand’s Māori centre of research excellence is welcoming the  government’s decision to invest up to $2.5 million a year over the next two years in Māori-led science and...
    TEU | 23-04
  • UCOL staff given holiday but not pay rise
    UCOL staff got two extra days’ holiday they did not bargain for this week between Easter and Anzac Day, but what they really want is a pay rise. The polytechnic’s chief executive Paul McIlroy said...
    TEU | 23-04
  • Workers Memorial Day 2014
    Please be advised that there are three events planned to commemorate Workers Memorial Day (28 April) in Wellington. The media are invited to attend all three events.What When Photo:  ...
    CTU | 23-04
  • Shane Jones speaks out
    On 3news last night, Shane Jones gave a staged interview where he got some things off his chest. Not exactly a graceful exit, but there you go. Two of the things he said were especially interesting to me. Shane said:...
    Polity | 23-04
  • No Economic Rationale for $760m Warkworth Toll Road
    This is the fifth in a series of posts based on the Campaign for Better Transport’s submission to the Puhoi to Warkworth Board of Inquiry. The full presentation is over at bettertransport.org.nz In this post we look at the economic...
    Transport Blog | 23-04
  • iPredict Ltd 2014 Election Update #15
    Column – iPredict iPredicts 7000 registered traders continue to believe Winston Peters NZ First party will hold the balance of power after the election and allow National to govern. There has been a small gain to Act and the Conservatives...
    Its our future | 23-04
  • Photo of the day – Vulcan Lane
    Vulcan Lane alive with people Photo is credited to oh.yes.melbourne...
    Transport Blog | 23-04
  • Have your say on what Internet rights should look like
    Today I launched my Internet Rights and Freedoms Bill – NZ’s first ever bill crowdsourced by a political party. The launch happened live on Reddit, and I was joined in my office Joy Liddicoat (former Human Rights Commissioner and present...
    frogblog | 23-04
  • Michael Porter on Social Progress
    via CNN, Fareed Zakaria has a fascinating interview with Harvard's Michael Porter, architect of the Social Progress Index that was launched to great fanfare a little while back. New Zealand won the top rank in that index, and Porter's main...
    Polity | 23-04
  • Time running out to save uni councils
    There’s only a week left to have your say on the Government’s changes to university and wānanga councils. Tertiary Education Minister Steven Joyce has put forward dramatic changes to the way uni and wānanga councils are made up – removing...
    frogblog | 23-04
  • Another reason why we need an enforceable BORA
    Back in 2003, the then-Labour government, faced with the "threat" of an unpopular child-sex offender being released from prison at the end of their sentance, enacted the Parole (Extended Supervision) and Sentencing Amendment Act, allowing them to be detained for...
    No Right Turn | 23-04
  • Attack of the Return of the Revenge of the Night of Boris Johnson
    The Great White Shark is circling closer and closer ...Boris Johnson is to announce he will stand for Parliament at next year’s election – to avoid speculation on his future overshadowing the Tory campaign.Friends of the London Mayor say he...
    Left hand palm | 23-04
  • The Greens’ "internet bill of rights"
    Today the Green party released their draft Internet Rights and Freedoms Bill. The bill is a response to government interference in cyberspace via the GCSB Act, TICS, and the Skynet law, and is intended to limit government control. Interestingly, they're...
    No Right Turn | 23-04
  • Tweet FA
    It’s nothing new for politicians (and would-be politicians) to fall foul of the odd misplaced tweet, or some other social media own goal, so much that there is even a website to highlight deleted tweets. A politician speaking without thinking...
    recess monkey | 23-04
  • The two-sided density dividend: Agglomeration economies in *consumption*
    Why are people – both in NZ and around the world – increasingly choosing to live in cities? The answer usually advanced in response to this question, at least from an economic perspective, is “agglomeration economies”. In this post I...
    Transport Blog | 23-04
  • "Shoulder-tapping" vs public service values
    Another angle to the Shane Jones resignation: Mr Jones said he would leave Parliament next month after he was shoulder tapped by Foreign Minister Murray McCully for a new role as a roving economic ambassador across the Pacific. This is...
    No Right Turn | 22-04
  • Good news, but enemies remain within the party
    Shane Jones’ decision to leave Labour is to be celebrated. But we must be on our guard, because others within the party hold similar views. Now is not the time to be complacent!...
    Imperator Fish | 22-04
  • Some "democracy"
    The UK calls itself a democracy. But if you try and present a petition to your local representative, their constituency staff will call the police on you:David Cameron’s constituency office has come under fire for calling the police on the...
    No Right Turn | 22-04
  • Good riddance
    Last night, Shane Jones dropped the bombshell that he would be quitting Parliament and the Labour party to work as a "roving ambassador" for Murray McCully. Good riddance. While pegged from the beginning as a "future leader" and "high performer",...
    No Right Turn | 22-04
  • Hard News: Jones: The contender leaves
    Like John Tamihere before him, Shane Jones entered Parliament burdened with the promise that he might be first Maori Prime Minister. That promise had probably left him before it emerged yesterday evening that he was walking away from politics, but...
    Public Address | 22-04
  • Gordon Campbell on the Shane Jones departure
    Shane Jones has left Parliament in the manner to which we have become accustomed, with self interest coming in first and second, and with the interests of the Labour Party (under whose banner he served) way, way back down the...
    Gordon Campbell | 22-04
  • Exit Jones, stage north
    I will miss having Shane Jones in the Labour tent. That isn't because I agree with him on everything. Disagreeing with people is part and parcel of party politics, especially in a party that aspires to be a broad church...
    Polity | 22-04
  • World News Brief, Wednesday April 23
    Top of the AgendaObama Begins Asia Trip to Reassert Pivot...
    Pundit | 22-04
  • That was Then, This is Now #24 – Key challenges Cunliffe – then doesn...
    .     . This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 16 April 2014.   Previous related blogpost That was Then, This is Now #23 – Bolger breaks election promise AND predicts the future! References TVNZ News: Key...
    Frankly Speaking | 22-04
  • That was Then, This is Now #24 – Key challenges Cunliffe – then doesn...
    .     . This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 16 April 2014.   Previous related blogpost That was Then, This is Now #23 – Bolger breaks election promise AND predicts the future! References TVNZ News: Key...
    Frankly Speaking | 22-04
  • Herald confirms our electric trains are quiet
    The Herald yesterday ran a story on just how quiet the new electric trains are. In a polar opposite there was a lot of noise on twitter about how the article was initially presented but after getting past that it...
    Transport Blog | 22-04
  • ‘I told ya so’ of the day, Shane Jones edition
    I got a bit of stick during the Labour leadership contest for my criticism of Shane Jones, so I have to indulge myself a little here. Now that we know this contender for the leadership of the Labour Party was...
    DimPost | 22-04
  • Warning to Labour; the heretic hunters are driving people away
    And Labour cannot keep Shane Jones and the people who support him unless it looks like a party capable of winning, and that means a party that is inclusive, focused on jobs, better pay, and on celebrating opportunities for all...
    Pundit | 22-04
  • Coalitionally speaking – a look at scenarios on the right
    Back on my previous post, Alex Coleman asked me to stop looking at potential government variants on the left and look at what a National-led government would look like, especially (at least this is what I took him to mean)...
    Pundit | 22-04
  • Here we may see what Men for Stealth and Robbing must endure …
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