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Polity: Herald poll mirrors Poll-of-Polls

Written By: - Date published: 11:33 am, December 20th, 2013 - 63 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

polity_square_for_lynnThese days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left. Rob Salmond at Polity has a look at the latest NZ Herald poll. It is no wonder that National’s PR people including Audrey Young are spinning randomly like tops on a rough surface…

National up less than a point over Labour + Greens

From your New Zealand Herald this morning:

  • National: 46.8%
  • Labour: 35.4%
  • Greens: 10.8%
  • NZ First: 3.9%

Polity’s poll of polls has a similar dynamic.

The Herald says this result shows the Maori Party holding the balance of power. I disagree, at least looking forward to the actual election.

The Maori Party’s delegation will very likely shrink, as they lose some of their electorate seats and their party vote stays low. New Zealand First, on the flip side, is a good bet to have a delegation of 6-8 MPs, despite sitting below the 5% threshold at the moment. (“Learning the lessons of history” and all that.)

Given this poll in December 2013, the best bet in November 2014 is that National and the Left Bloc remain more or less tied, and that Winston Peters gets to choose the Prime Minister. Despite all the angry words between him and John Key, I think there is a very real chance New Zealand First would opt for National in that situation. Second fiddle receives more baubles than third fiddle.

This landscape shaping up just like 1996 in some important ways. If voters want to change the government, their best choice is Labour, not New Zealand First.

63 comments on “Polity: Herald poll mirrors Poll-of-Polls”

  1. risildowgtn 1

    You forgot Mana,
    dont underestimate Mana or Hone

    • Murray Olsen 1.1

      While I find it hard to see Mana getting over 5% yet, they could get a couple more in to sit with Hone. I hope so, but as always, it’s what they’re doing out in the community that’s more important.

  2. red blooded 2

    It’s possible that Hone will be back, but will he have enough of a Party vote to bring anyone else in with him? Similarly, if JK has a cuppa with CC, it might bring in 1 or ( please no!) 2 Conservatives.

    I agree that Winston is more blue than red, partly out of political instinct (it’s where he started, after all, and he’s done this before when given a choice) and partly out of a sense of status. Let’s remember that in the past he has held Labour governments to ransom and demanded that the Greens be locked out. That’s a very unlikely scenario this time, so he may well turn to his friends in blue. It would be interesting to see whether he could accommodate a deal with CC or whether he would make similar status-driven demands of a National-led government as he has in the past with a Labour-led group.

    The big message from this poll seems to be that the left needs to grow its overall proportion of the vote. Will this lead to a middle-ground drift?

    • Fisiani 2.1

      The smart money on Ipredict suggests that the Conservatives will get 5.7% which will mean they would have at least 6 MP’s.

      • gobsmacked 2.1.1

        Fisiani

        If the Conservatives get 5.7% or more, I’ll pay $1,000 to a (non-political) charity of your choice.

        If they get less, you’ll pay $500 to a similar charity of my choice.

        Deal?

        • Fisiani 2.1.1.1

          I am not claiming that they will get 5.7% , Can you not read? If You have $500 to lose why not use your genius to put it smartly on Ipredict?

          • Pascal'sbookie 2.1.1.1.1

            You said it was the smart money.

            According to polls the conservatives haven’t moved a bit despite the recent coverage. The herald poll has them down to about half of where they consistently were 6 or so months ago.

            • Vagabundo 2.1.1.1.1.1

              The coverage wasn’t exactly the most flattering now, was it?

              • Pascal'sbookie

                The voters he’s after won’t be expecting flattering coverage of a true conservative (TM), not from the progressive socialist infested media. If he got coverage that din;t mock him, they would like him less.

                But he still can’t get a wee budge.

                There was an interview with him on the Ruminator blog. Well worth reading. The interviewer, Jackson James Woods, does a good job at getting/letting him talk. Craig might improve. But he’s always one idiot thing away being a liability.

                • lurgee

                  “The voters he’s after won’t be expecting flattering coverage of a true conservative (TM), not from the progressive socialist infested media”

                  That’s funny, but only marinally more funny than the continual bleating about media CONSPIRACY and BIAS around here. Yes, people, you’re almost as mad as Colin Craig.

                  “The interviewer, Jackson James Woods, does a good job at getting/letting him talk”

                  This is why I can not abide Kim Hill. She is continually interrupting, badgering and showing off what a Fierce Interviewer she is.

      • Colonial Viper 2.1.2

        After the Righties wasted millions backing ACT??? “Smart” money LOL

      • Lanthanide 2.1.3

        No, the obviously manipulated stock on iPredict guesses they’ll get 5.7% of the vote.

        You’re a sucker if you believe it. Just read the iPredict forums (apparently you don’t need a login) to see people suggesting an alternative binary contract of whether Colin will get a seat or not, simply because it’s very cheap to push that stock up over 5% and very expensive to push it back down.

  3. alwyn 3

    The only poll that is done regularly is the Roy Morgan one, which comes out every two weeks or so.
    If you are in the Labour I think that the trend that is showing up there really will frighten you.
    David Cunliffe was elected leader of the party on 15 September. If one looks at the polls after this date, each covering two weeks and with the first one being September 16-29 and the last Novermber 25-December 8, we see the votes for Labour being 37%, 37%, 35.5%, 32%, 34% and 30.5%
    National go 42%, 41.5%, 42%, 45.5%, 44.5% and 45%. The Green party go 11.5%, 12.5%, 11%, 12.5%, 11% and 14.5%.
    Thus, at the start the Lab/Grn vote was 48.5 and National 42. At the end they are even. That is not just a random swing but a definite trend.
    It appears that the more that the public see of David Cunliffe the less they like him. That seems to fit in with the fact that the least approving of him in the party are the caucus, who must know him the best.
    How low do the polls have to go before he is defenestrated?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 3.1

      Its election year Alwyn, labour just gets more publicity and around election time gets roughly equal billing with national.
      The last polls before the last election over predicted Nationals vote, and will do so next time. Actual result for National will be closer to 42%- which means with their minor support parties they are out, unless they do a deal with Winston

    • bad12 3.2

      Actually alwyn your analysis while quite clever suffers a fatal flaw which would simply leave ‘it’ lying bare as mere biased comment,

      The fact is, Cunliffe is horribly, and i believe deliberately, under-exposed by the New Zealand media across the whole spectrum,

      Instead of counting the %’s in the Roy Morgan, which have in the main shown the 2014 election will be tighter than the previous one you should look across the media for appearances by Cunliffe when compared in number and duration to those of Slippery the Prime Minister and there you will see a gross imbalance of coverage favoring the incumbent a situation that will change dramatically in the months leading up to the 2014 election,

      Helen Clark was also all but ignored by the media a year out from Her becoming the Prime Minister, something i doubt She cared diddly squat about as She traveled the country building support among the community un-reported upon by the mainstream,

      If the polls are correct in their stated level of support for NZFirst,(something i doubt simply based upon the darkest days for that Party still delivering it 4.8% of the vote in 2008), then i would suggest barring a miracle National in a close race will not be able to form a majority…

    • lurgee 3.3

      we see the votes for Labour being 37%, 37%, 35.5%, 32%, 34% and 30.5%
      National go 42%, 41.5%, 42%, 45.5%, 44.5% and 45%. The Green party go 11.5%, 12.5%, 11%, 12.5%, 11% and 14.5%.

      That just looks like typical variation around an actual level of support of around 34-35%; which is pitiful, but I don’t think the numbers are actually sinking … Still, numbers like that did for Shearer. Wonder how long before knives come out for Cunliffe? I love the left. Always on the attack, but never attacking the enemy.

      • alwyn 3.3.1

        A drop from 37% to 30.5% is twice the margin of error and there is a pretty steady decline over the 10 week period. I don’t think that that can be described as simple a variation around some mid-point.
        If you went 37%, 32%, 35.5%, 34%, 37% and 30.5% you might be able to say it of course but I don’t think so here.
        The Green numbers can be, but not the other two parties. National, with three at about 42% and then three later ones at about 45% seems to be a real increase also.
        I shall have to dig out some of my old Stats books and see what any test would say.

        • lurgee 3.3.1.1

          A drop from 37% to 30.5% is twice the margin of error

          Surely, the actual level of support would be in the middle? The high one and the low one are both natural variation, round an intermediate mean, or what ever clever numbers people call it.

          You’re doing what climate change ‘sceptics’ do when they claim there has been no warming for 17 years.

          I’m not suggesting Labour shouldn’t be desperate about their poll position – see my comments down thread – but the problem is that their numbers are stagnant, not that they are falling. A few more polls like this, and yeah, then there will be a problem. But you’re confusing statistical noise with a definite trend.

      • bad12 3.3.2

        Never attacking the enemy??? that is delusional, i suggest you have a read of the other Posts today…

  4. Enough is Enough 4

    “This landscape shaping up just like 1996 in some important ways. If voters want to change the government, their best choice is Labour, not New Zealand First.”

    However if the voters want to change the government, and ensure that real change is made to our society with the neo liberal wet dream being shot forever, they must vote Green.

    Any other option will return a government that maintains the status quo.

    Parker and English are cut from the same cloth.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 4.1

      Greens are for the status quo as well.

      Thats why Sue Bradford was shafted, no more scary radicals

      • bad12 4.1.1

        You are kidding right, we re talking of the MP who got awarded the ‘best behaved’ in the Parliament,

        What exactly was radical about Sue’s time in the Parliament, Met’s came from the exact same ‘radical’ back-ground as Bradford albeit without the carefully staged media events, i well remember one of those from the planning stage to the bashing on the gates of Premier House with fake paper batons,(you can guess the intention which was also discussed befor-hand)…

    • thechangeling 4.2

      And instead of being screened out, some newer members of the Labour team are as neo-liberal and elitist as they come!

  5. lurgee 5

    “These days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left.”

    By showing an increase in the vote for National, and a fall in the Labour-Green bloc-that-isn’t? By showing NZ First also down? That’s moving left? Come off it. Stop trying to spin straw into red gold.

    This poll is grim for Labour and the Greens. Two and a half terms under a useless government of clowns, a new leader, and the leftie bloc is still struggling to match National alone. If the economy does not tank (and that is largely down to Australia, China and the USA, not Bill English), and Key doesn’t actually start flicking the bird at people in public, I am very worried that they may get back in 2013.

    Frighteningly, the left may be relying on Winston getting above 5%.

    And if some combination of Labour-Greens-NZ First- Mana do manage to scrape together some sort of government, it will likely be a riven, short-lived, ineffective one.

    Which actually prompts me to wonder if the party bigwigs had already written off 2013 when they let Cunliffe win.

    Which shows I can be as crackpot paranoid as the rest of you.

    • gobsmacked 5.1

      I am very worried that they may get back in 2013

      Now that *would* be a snap election … 😉

      I’ve said it before, but it’s always worth repeating: every single poll in 2011 said National would govern alone. Every single one.

      That’s what Rob is hinting at with “learning the lessons of history”. Like nearly everyone else, he overestimated National’s support at the last election. Let’s plug that memory hole.

  6. Matthew 6

    Also no mention of Cunliffe’s dire performance in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. He is yet to surpass Shearer!

    It’s all looking a little desperate for the left in 2014 with the only hope being a cobbled together co-alition involving 4 or more parties.

    • Tracey 6.1

      lol… unlike a coalition of ACT and UF which collectively were wanted by fuck all of NZ… nothing cobbled there.

    • Francis 6.2

      Very hard to rank high in that poll when you have virtually no exposure in the media. Besides a few 5-10 second “sound bites”, there has been practically nothing directly from David Cunliffe in the media. At the same time, you have the right-wing bias media spewing a lot of crap about how “arrogant” he is (I think the editors accidently put him instead of John Key), and it’s not surprising people aren’t ranking him very highly.

      A few 15-20 minute interviews in prime-time (which would have to happen in election year), and I’d expect that to change.

  7. Ad 7

    David Cunliffe needs to snap his office and caucus out of a torpor.

    Twyford and Goff are the only other two of caucus firing. It is utterly stark that there is no consistent messaging coming out of Labour, no themes emerging, and the next opportunity seems to be the State of the Nation set piece in mid February next year (which again is only an echo of Key’s own speech not Cunliffe’s own initiative).

    His office appears not to have coherent message control, and Cunliffe is far too much the narrow politician, and not the wider leader that New Zealand needs him to be. It’s similar (but not as bad as) Brown: Cunliffe goes into 2014 with no momentum in the media or in the public mood.

    We fought damn hard to get him there, and this is piss poor reward for the effort. Don’t talk to me about ‘in the margin of the poll of polls either’. Wrong side of this ‘margin of error’ this time next year will see Key in for a third term.

    Plenty of people will say ‘give him time’ and “it gets better in election year’, or ‘too soon’. I say horseshit. Labour should have had sustained polling progress off fantastic government failures.

    Shape up Mr Cunliffe you are drifting. And the Party is drifting with you.

  8. Wayne 8

    The main thing you are missing (or ignoring) is that the Nats are finishing the year with a lot of good news, and that is starting the affect the mood of voters.

    A lot of the bad political news are already seen as last years stories, e.g. GCSB (which people have essentially forgotten since it does not actually affect anyone in any practical way), asset sales, National Standards, etc.

    It has been a little while since there was a significant bad economy story. Most recent stories are about growth, good agricultural prices, more housing starts, higher manufacturing, higher inwards migration, better prospects for employment, etc. It will extremely difficult for Labour to credibly argue that the Nats are hopeless economic managers.

    The one negative for the Nats is the Children’s Commissioner report, but for most people an upward swing in the economy is going to be seen to help children.

    In fact it is quite possible the Nats may improve their poll results in 2014, as the economy continues to build. Labour may well need an unpredictable event that is badly handled to reverse the trend.

    Now I appreciate govts can change when there is an economic upswing as in1999, but in that case the recession was 5 to 6 years in the past, and the govt looked a bit of a mess after the Nat/NZF coalition fell apart. John Key’s Cabinet looks vastly better organized than the situation going into 1999.

    In fact as the post indicates this is more like 1996, the recession is just over and Winston holds the balance. But the difference is that the Nats are only 5% off a majority, not 15% off a majority as in 1996.

    • Tracey 8.1

      you forgot to finish with

      Here ends the party political reprint for the National Party.

      And whoever said lying doesnt pay, never met the current members of the national Caucus (and hangers on)

      • Wayne 8.1.1

        Tracey,

        Just because I have a different view to you does not mean I am a liar. And I don’t suggest that about most left commenters unless they have made a factual error. Even then I would not say they are lairs. People make factual errors all the time. It does not mean they are liars. To lie means to say something knowing that it is not true. Opinion, or a particular interpretation, or error is therefore not a lie.

        In any event, my main point is that there is a lot of good economic news about. I did not say there was absolutely no bad economic news. Are you really suggesting the preponderance of economic news at the moment is basically bad (at least in terms that I have used).

        I can see the some might say high dairy prices are bad because of the environmental affects or that new house starts of the sort National encourages leads to more urban sprawl.

        • KJT 8.1.1.1

          Yes. The economy is looking up. It usually does when the world is coming out of a recession.

          And, A brighter outlook for the economy does favour the incumbent Government. Even if it is despite their policies.

        • Tracey 8.1.1.2

          I didnt call you a liar, and never intended to. I am referring to the current government and its hangers on who spin and spin and spin. I just dont share your view of good news. To me economic good news means that all people are lviing well, happy healthy and access to equal opportunity etc etc. I havent seen any such good news or anything int he last 30 odd years to suggest the news you consider is good will result in that.

          So yes, i am saying I havent seen any good economic news lately. I definitely havent seen any decent non partisan analysis of the so called good news either, and dont expect to.

          “To lie means to say something knowing that it is not true.”

          and to say something with wilful disregard for whether its true or not.

          yours is quite a narrow definition. I ought to have including misleading in my line.

          lying
          noun
          dishonesty, perjury, deceit, fabrication, guile, misrepresentation, duplicity, fibbing, double-dealing, prevarication, falsity, mendacity, dissimulation, untruthfulness Lying is something that I will not tolerate.
          adjective
          deceitful, false, deceiving, treacherous, dishonest, two-faced, double-dealing, dissembling, mendacious, perfidious, untruthful, guileful You lying, cowardly beast!
          deceitful straight, frank, reliable, straightforward, sincere, honest, candid, truthful, forthright, veracious

          • poem 8.1.1.2.1

            +1 Tracy

          • Bearded Git 8.1.1.2.2

            +100 Tracey. Agree about the spin.

            The problem is National are so good at the spin-Labour/Greens need to expose it as spin. I think Cunliffe has shown the ability to do this when interviewed recently on the asset sales issue. It’s also easier to expose spin in an election campaign when coverage of the major parties tends to be more even.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 8.1.1.2.3

            to say something with wilful disregard for whether it’s true or not.

            Oh my.

            Well said Tracey.

            …and then they (looking at you, Dr. Mapp) go and base policy on it.

    • Pascal'sbookie 8.2

      Well there is the auditor general saying she wants to take another look at Solid Energy, so that’s a thing.

    • gobsmacked 8.3

      Labour may well need an unpredictable event that is badly handled to reverse the trend.

      Well, I can give you three predictable events in 2014:

      – John Banks will be in court
      – Kim Dotcom will be in court
      – Colin Craig will be in the media

      Plenty of headlines there for National to enjoy.

    • geoff 8.4

      It has been a little while since there was a significant bad economy story. Most recent stories are about growth, good agricultural prices, more housing starts, higher manufacturing, higher inwards migration, better prospects for employment, etc. It will extremely difficult for Labour to credibly argue that the Nats are hopeless economic managers.

      Any good economic signs have occurred IN SPITE of National’s economic management. All of the economic structural imbalances that were in place at the start of National’s tenure are still here or have gotten worse. The lack of affordable housing continues to be the elephant in the room that National pretends doesn’t exist. EVERYBODY is cognizant of this problem and you imply that people are too stupid to see that National refuses to help the country with this problem??? Good grief.

      That’s completely hypocritical of you, Wayne, considering how many times you have accused lefties of being out of touch with ‘real people’. Not all of us have the same memory problems as your idol, JK, it’s not difficult to remember all of the massive failings of the National government. (Although it may be difficult to count them.)

      You don’t given New Zealanders much credit if you think they haven’t seen right through this National government by now.
      Kiwi’s have given the John Key Show plenty of chances and they’ve failed time and time again.
      GCSB, house/rent prices, asset sales, oil exploration, to name but a few. All big ticket items that, come election time, Greens/Labour will have no trouble reminding the electorate about how National dropped the ball.

  9. swordfish 9

    Right, my highly significant others…..

    Putting aside (admittedly highly important) niceties like whether or not certain small parties will make it back next year, I’ve done a quick bit of analysis comparing poll averages for late 2007 with 2008 General Election Results and for late 2010 compared with 2011 General Election Results.

    The upshot of it all is this:

    The Left Bloc vote at the 2008 Election was exactly the same as its poll average for Nov/Dec 2007.
    At the 2011 Election, the Left Bloc (quite similarly) was down just 1 point on its Nov/Dec 2010 poll average. In Nov/Dec 2013, the Left has been averaging just under 46% (bearing in mind there’s still one or two more polls to go before end Dec). So, we might expect 45-46% in 2014 (unless something just a bit dramatic happens).

    The Right Bloc vote at 2008 Election was 1.5 points down on their poll average for Nov/Dec 2007, while at the 2011 Election, their vote was down 3 points. In Nov/Dec 2013 – the Right are averaging 49% (Note: includes ACT, UF, Maori and Con). So, the Right Bloc might expect 46-47 %, all things being equal.

    Peters up 0.5% (2008 Election compared to late 2007 polls), and up 4% (2011 Election compared to late 2010 polls). So, quite possibly holding balance of power (depending on NZFirst taking 5+% and on what the hell happens to the minor parties of the Right). Haven’t bothered with the Election Calculator – leave it up to others…

    Then, again, there is a little variation between the 07/08 pattern and the 10/11 pattern (particularly with NZFirst and the Right), so 2014 Left/Right Bloc votes may vary slightly more from late 2013 polls than I’ve suggested.

    Your Obedient Servant and former Confidante, Mr M Montgomery-Swordfish.

    • Tat Loo (CV) 9.1

      So its not shifting the polls which will matter – but giving left voting people a reason to turn out. And right voters to stay at home.

      • swordfish 9.1.1

        Yep, I don’t want to come over all Calvinist and suggest it’s all set in stone a year out (hence my caveat), but, unless something dramatic happens, it looks like it’s gonna be pretty damn close and mobilising at least a portion of those Labour-leaning erstwhile non-voters will be crucial.

        One pleasing development – the MSM are increasingly comparing the Left and Right Blocs as a whole in their opinion poll analysis. Whereas, of course, in 08/11 they were grossly misleading voters by placing entire analytical emphasis on the wide support gap between National and Labour (FPP-style). Thus encouraging Labour supporters into non-voting (especially with Front-Page headlines like THE DOMPOST’s ‘Labour is Dog Tucker’).

        I do like to think though, that maybe, just maybe, the Nats underperformed at the 08 and 11 General Elections (relative to their poll ratings) because poor polling methodology exaggerated their support-levels. It’d be rather nice to think they’re actually languishing around the 40-42% mark (disguised by iffy polling) as we speak.

  10. rich the other 10

    Huge result for National ,
    Think about it , the last 6 months have been difficult for National but this poll points out the stupidity of labours tactics .
    The referendum and the wasted $9million which achieved NOTHING hasn’t gone down well with voters , Ask your self , what did it achieve , the bulk of the sell policy had already been implemented, what stupidity and it hasn’t gone unnoticed by voters.

    Next year so much will be on a roll, housing , motorway construction, Christchurch rebuild in full swing, farming booming ,oil exploration under way ,mining going ahead ,unemployment down, new schools, new hospitals etc it’s endless.

    This poll is Nationals low point, it’s just going to get better .
    Next year National will govern alone and the perennial knockers will be kicked into touch.

    • gobsmacked 10.1

      If they will govern alone, why does Key want to do electorate deals with ACT, United Future and the Conservatives?

    • swordfish 10.2

      No, my wonderfully pointless Tory friend,

      Let us take a little look at the Nats vote at the 2008 / 11 General Elections relative to what they were polling a year before.

      Late 2007, Nats averaged 49% in polls, 2008 General Election = 45% (so down 4 points).

      Late 2010, Nats averaged 52% in polls, 2011 General Election = 47% (so down 5 points).

      Late 2013, Nats currently averaging 46%, so 2014 General Election = 41-42% ?

      Certainly can’t rule that out, Big Fella.

      • poem 10.2.1

        Very nice analysis Swordfish

      • lurgee 10.2.2

        Terrifyingly, Swordfish, your figures suggest National will get 49% of the vote at the election … And in the longer term, they’ve increased their share of the vote in every election since 2002, so perhaps they will continue until they have 100%. The horror! The horror!

        You’ve quite ruined my day.

        • swordfish 10.2.2.1

          The good news is the Left Bloc are currently polling (on average) 46%. A year out from the 2008 and 2011 General Elections they were on 42% and 41% respectively. Vernon Small quite possibly nails it when he suggests It’ll be down to the wire, but probably National having a very slight edge. Which way you gonna jump, Winnie ?

          • Tat Loo (CV) 10.2.2.1.1

            And why have Labour been deliberately antagonising Dunne? It will be down to the wire, and Labour already chased away their MP who could beat Dunne.

            • swordfish 10.2.2.1.1.1

              Yeah, I’d agree that Labour certainly need to keep their options open. As irritating as Dunne can be, when your’e neck-and-neck it’s not a great tactic to deliberately anatagonise a potential lifeline. Having said that, the chances of a rapprochement are probably fairly slim. Remember, Dunne and the Maori Party were more than happy to go with Brash in 05, Winston and only Winston saved the day.

              I suspect the Nats in Ohariu will always do the pragmatic thing and candidate-vote Dunne if it’s in their party’s best interests. And as Wellington’s *wealthiest seat, it’ll always be Right-leaning in the party-vote and favour a Nat Government (even in 2002). You might almost say the Nats OWN Dunne, hook, line and sinker. He only exists at their pleasure.

              * Believe I’m right in that, but not entirely sure.

    • poem 10.3

      You’ve been breathing in too much noxious gas on planet key haven’t you rich the other. Given a lot of bad shit has happened in the last 3 years, what makes you think national could garner enough support to govern alone this time round, when they couldn’t achieve it 2011?

      • rich the other 10.3.1

        Well spotted poem,
        plenty of shit in the last period and that’s the point, National has held it’s support through difficult times, the out look for next year is brilliant .
        They can only gain support.

        Swordfish figures are historical and make no allowance for the boom times ahead, add in the support the greens are giving the government and you have a landslide victory for NATIONAL.
        BRILLIANT

        • swordfish 10.3.1.1

          BRILLIAAAAAANNNNNNNTTTTTTT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          Reminds me of a mindlessly enthusiastic character from THE FAST SHOW (mid 90s BBC Comedy Skit Series).

          Maybe, just maybe, young Richard, my boy, the Nats underperformed at the 2008 and 2011 General Elections (relative to their poll ratings) because poor methodology meant their support-level was systematically exaggerated. Our fine Tory chums may well, in fact, already be languishing around the 42% mark (disguised by iffy polling).

  11. finbar 11

    Dave, has to learn, to grow, when asked a question,less is enough,rather than more.Park his ego,its almost within our grasp,grasp the future its for ours to grasp.

    • Tat Loo (CV) 11.1

      Too much responsibility for one pair of shoulders, no matter how broad. When does Labour start announcing its renewal of caucus?

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    Kiwis have twice been given timely and grave warnings on how climate change will hit them in their hip pockets this week, says Climate Change spokesperson Megan Woods.  “The first is the closure of the Sanford mussel plant and the… ...
    3 days ago
  • Clean, green and chocolate!
    Like many people I absolutely love chocolate! But until recently I hadn’t given much thought to how it was grown and produced. Fair trade and ethical food production are core Green Party principles, so yesterday Steffan Browning and I were… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    3 days ago
  • National admits loan shark law not up to it
    National has admitted new laws to crack down on loan sharks, truck shops and dodgy credit merchants aren’t up to the task of protecting vulnerable consumers, Labour’s Commerce spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. “Paul Goldsmith has acknowledged the laws might just… ...
    3 days ago
  • Power and the Prime Minister
    I’d like to acknowledge the young woman* who has publically told her story. It was a very brave thing to do. She kept her story very simple and focussed on her experience of what happened. It told of unwanted attention… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 days ago
  • Extra holiday offers time to reflect
    The Mondayisation of Anzac Day provides New Zealanders with an opportunity to spend more time with their families and their communities, Dunedin North Labour MP David Clark says. “This is the first time legislation I introduced, to have Anzac and… ...
    3 days ago
  • More angst and anguish for red zone locals
    Local residents will be bitterly disappointed by the Government’s cherry picking of the Supreme Court’s decision regarding compensation for red zoned property owners, Labour Canterbury Earthquake Recovery spokesperson and Port Hills MP Ruth Dyson says. “Home owners have taken all… ...
    4 days ago
  • Australia shows why we need a sovereign wealth fund now
    Australia has not managed its great mining boom well, says HSBC’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Paul Bloxham. When times are good, governments need to save for the bad times that will inevitably follow, and this can be… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    4 days ago
  • Pure Water- pure rip off
    New Zealanders’ rights to fresh water must be protected before commercial allocations are given, but the Government is allowing resources to be taken, says Kelvin Davis MP for Te Tai Tokerau.  “The Government needs to resolve the issue of water… ...
    4 days ago
  • Cabinet paper reveals weak case for Iraq deployment
    A heavily redacted copy of a Cabinet paper on New Zealand’s military deployment to Iraq reveals how weak the case is for military involvement in that conflict, says Labour’s Defence spokesperson Phil Goff.  The paper warns that given the failure… ...
    4 days ago
  • Malaysia’s booty is Kiwis’ lost homeownership dream
    It’s unsurprising the Auckland property market is so overheated when Malaysians are being told they can live large on Kiwi’s hard-earned rent money, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “A Malaysian property website lists nearly 4000 New Zealand houses and… ...
    4 days ago
  • Ministry’s food safety resources slashed to the bone
    The Ministry for Primary Industries’ failure to monitor toxic and illegal chemicals in red meat is a dereliction of duty, Labour’s Primary Industries and Food Safety spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “MPI compliance officer Gary Orr today admitted National’s much-vaunted super… ...
    4 days ago
  • Ministry must protect organic food industry
    The Ministry for Primary Industries must take urgent action to protect New Zealand’s $150 million organic food and beverage industry by establishing a certification regime, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Despite working with Organics Aotearoa on the issue… ...
    5 days ago
  • Tony Abbott, indigenous rights, and refugees
    This week, Tony Abbott has visited Aotearoa New Zealand, bringing with him his racist policies against indigenous Australians and his appalling record on refugee detention camps. Abbott has launched a policy “to close” remote aboriginal communities, which is about as… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    5 days ago
  • PM’s housing outburst bizarre
    Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford has described the Prime Minister’s latest comments on the Auckland housing crisis as bizarre. “John Key is deep in denial. He must be one of the only people left who are not concerned about the risk… ...
    6 days ago
  • Deflation: Another economic headache linked to housing crisis
    National’s housing crisis is causing even further damage with the second consecutive quarter of deflation a genuine concern the Reserve Bank can do little about, as it focusses on Auckland house prices, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “This is… ...
    6 days ago
  • Pot calling the kettle black over fossil fuel subsidies.
    Over the weekend alongside nine other countries the New Zealand Government has endorsed a statement that supports eliminating inefficient subsidies on fossil fuels. Fossil fuel subsidies are a big driver of increasing emissions. Good on the Government for working internationally… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    6 days ago
  • At last – a common sense plan for Christchurch
    The Common Sense Plan for Christchurch released by The People’s Choice today is a welcome relief from the shallow debate about rates rises versus asset sales, Labour’s Christchurch MPs say. "Local residents – who have spent weeks trawling through the… ...
    1 week ago
  • National must lead by example on climate change
    The National Government must meet its own climate change obligations before it preaches to the rest of the world, Labour's Climate Change spokesperson Megan Woods says. "Calls today by Climate Change Minister Tim Groser for an end to fossil fuel… ...
    1 week ago
  • Biosecurity rethink a long time
    The Government has opened New Zealand’s borders to biosecurity risks and its rethinking of bag screening at airports is an admission of failure, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. Nathan Guy today announced a review of biosecurity systems in… ...
    1 week ago
  • Chinese rail workers must be paid minimum wage
    KiwiRail must immediately stop further Chinese engineers from working here until they can guarantee they are being paid the New Zealand minimum wage, Labour’s MP for Hutt South Trevor Mallard says. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment today released… ...
    1 week ago
  • Better consultation needed on Christchurch asset sales
    The Christchurch City Council (CCC) should be promoting wide and genuine public consultation on its draft ten year budget and plan given the serious implications for the city’s future of its proposed asset sales, outlined in the plan. Instead, it… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    1 week ago
  • ‘Healthy Families’ a good start but not enough to tackle obesity relate...
    Today the Government is making a the meal out of the launch of its ‘Healthy Families’ package to promote ‘healthier decisions’ and ‘changing mindsets’ over nutrition, physical activity and obesity. Great! The programme is based on a successful model from… ...
    GreensBy Kevin Hague MP
    1 week ago
  • ‘Healthy Families’ a good start but not enough to tackle obesity relate...
    Today the Government is making a the meal out of the launch of its ‘Healthy Families’ package to promote ‘healthier decisions’ and ‘changing mindsets’ over nutrition, physical activity and obesity. Great! The programme is based on a successful model from… ...
    GreensBy Kevin Hague MP
    1 week ago
  • No more sweet talk on obesity
    The Government should be looking at broader measures to combat obesity rather than re-hashing pre-announced initiatives, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says.  “While it is encouraging to see the Government finally waking from its slumber and restoring a focus on… ...
    1 week ago
  • Government two-faced on zero-hour contracts
    The Government should look to ban zero-hour contracts in its own back yard before getting too high and mighty about other employers using them, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “Information collated by Labour shows at least three district health… ...
    1 week ago
  • Scrutiny of battlefield deaths should continue
    As New Zealand troops head to Iraq under a shroud of secrecy, the Government is pushing ahead with legislation to remove independent scrutiny of incidents where Kiwi soldiers are killed in hostile action overseas, Labour’s Defence spokesperson Phil Goff says.… ...
    1 week ago
  • Damp-free homes a right for tenants
    Labour is urging tenants to use a little known rule which gives them the right to live in damp-free rental homes. Otago University researchers have today highlighted the Housing Improvement Regulations 1947 as a way tenants can force landlords to… ...
    1 week ago
  • National must take action on speculators
    The Government must take action on property speculators who are damaging the housing market and shutting families and young people out of the home ownership dream, Labour Leader Andrew Little says.  “There are a number of options the Government could… ...
    1 week ago
  • Milk price halves: A $7b economic black hole
    Global milk prices have halved since the peak last year, creating an economic black hole of almost $7 billion that will suck in regions reliant on dairy, crucial industries and the Government’s books, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The… ...
    1 week ago
  • Kitchen plan set to swallow up health boards’ funds
    The financial impacts of implementing a proposal to outsource hospital food, forced on them by a crown-owned company which is now facing an auditor-general’s inquiry, are being felt by district health boards across the country, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Reserve Bank scathing of Government
    The Reserve Bank’s most scathing critique to date of National’s inability to handle the housing crisis shows the Bank is sick of having to pick up the pieces, Labour Leader Andrew Little says.  “John Key continues to deny there is… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Time for McDonald’s to upsize work hours
    Labour is calling on McDonald’s to have more respect for their workers and offer them more guaranteed work hours. McDonald’s is proposing to guarantee its workers 80 per cent of their rostered hours, Labour’s spokesperson for Labour Issues Iain Lees-Galloway… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Brownlee misses the boat on asbestos
    Gerry Brownlee has once again missed an opportunity to improve the lives of Cantabrians post-earthquakes, Labour’s Canterbury Earthquake Recovery spokesperson Ruth Dyson says. A new report from the Royal Society of New Zealand and the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Adviser,… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government must come clean on troop deployment and protections
    New Zealanders deserve more than to hear about their troops’ deployment overseas from Australian media, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “News from Australia that Kiwi troops are on their way to Iraq this week is another example of the culture… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Cancer prevention calls gain momentum
    Research showing bowel cancer treatment sucks up more public health dollars than other cancers once again highlights the need for a national screening programme, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. A study by Otago University, which found colon cancer is… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Burger King shows zero-hour contracts not needed
    The abandonment of zero-hour contracts by Burger King is further evidence good employers do not need to use them, Labour’s spokesperson on Labour Issues Iain Lees-Galloway says. "Congratulations to the Unite Union and Burger King for settling an employment agreement… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Kiwis deserve more than reheats
    The Government looks set to rely on regurgitated announcements for this year’s Budget if today’s speech is anything to go by, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “National has been building up to this Budget for seven long years, promising a… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Landlords not cashing in on insulation schemes
    The fact so few landlords have taken up the generous taxpayer subsidy for retrofitting shows it is time to legislate minimum standards, says Labour’s Associate Housing spokesperson Poto Williams. “Many landlords aren’t using Government insulation schemes because they don’t want… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Zero excuses, end zero hour contracts now
    It’s time Workplace Relations Minister Michael Woodhouse cut the weasel words and banned zero hour contracts, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “Michael Woodhouse today acknowledged zero hour contracts are unfair. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • We’ve reached Peak Key with ‘artificial target’
    John Key’s attempt to redefine his cornerstone promise of two election campaigns as an artificial target suggests his other promises are works of fiction, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “For seven years and two election campaigns, John Key has… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Top 10 need to know facts on climate change
    All the numbers and stats around climate change can be confusing, so we’ve put together a handy list of the top 10 numbers about climate change that we should all know- and then do something about. You can sign up here to… ...
    GreensBy Frog
    2 weeks ago
  • Campbell Live a bastion of investigative journalism
    The announcement that current affairs programme Campbell Live is under review and may be axed has sparked outrage from the New Zealand public, for good reason, says Labour’s Broadcasting Spokesperson Clare Curran. “Investigative journalism is a precious resource in today’s… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Ground Zero for ‘disastrous’ contracts
    Yesterday the Green Party called on the Government to follow the leadership of Restaurant Brands and ditch zero-hour contracts. Currently it looks like the Government is a large part of the zero-hours problem. It allows these types of “non-jobs” to… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Trust in National will disappear with deficit
    Bill English is set to break his promise to get the books back in the black this year and lose the trust of Kiwis who have had to do it too hard for too long, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Dorothy Jelicich passes away
    It is with sincere sadness that the Labour Party conveys its sympathies and condolences to the bereaved family of Dorothy Jelicich who passed away last night at the age of 87 years, says the MP for Mangere, Su’a William Sio.… ...
    2 weeks ago

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