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Polity: Herald poll mirrors Poll-of-Polls

Written By: - Date published: 11:33 am, December 20th, 2013 - 63 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

polity_square_for_lynnThese days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left. Rob Salmond at Polity has a look at the latest NZ Herald poll. It is no wonder that National’s PR people including Audrey Young are spinning randomly like tops on a rough surface…

National up less than a point over Labour + Greens

From your New Zealand Herald this morning:

  • National: 46.8%
  • Labour: 35.4%
  • Greens: 10.8%
  • NZ First: 3.9%

Polity’s poll of polls has a similar dynamic.

The Herald says this result shows the Maori Party holding the balance of power. I disagree, at least looking forward to the actual election.

The Maori Party’s delegation will very likely shrink, as they lose some of their electorate seats and their party vote stays low. New Zealand First, on the flip side, is a good bet to have a delegation of 6-8 MPs, despite sitting below the 5% threshold at the moment. (“Learning the lessons of history” and all that.)

Given this poll in December 2013, the best bet in November 2014 is that National and the Left Bloc remain more or less tied, and that Winston Peters gets to choose the Prime Minister. Despite all the angry words between him and John Key, I think there is a very real chance New Zealand First would opt for National in that situation. Second fiddle receives more baubles than third fiddle.

This landscape shaping up just like 1996 in some important ways. If voters want to change the government, their best choice is Labour, not New Zealand First.

63 comments on “Polity: Herald poll mirrors Poll-of-Polls”

  1. risildowgtn 1

    You forgot Mana,
    dont underestimate Mana or Hone

    • Murray Olsen 1.1

      While I find it hard to see Mana getting over 5% yet, they could get a couple more in to sit with Hone. I hope so, but as always, it’s what they’re doing out in the community that’s more important.

  2. red blooded 2

    It’s possible that Hone will be back, but will he have enough of a Party vote to bring anyone else in with him? Similarly, if JK has a cuppa with CC, it might bring in 1 or ( please no!) 2 Conservatives.

    I agree that Winston is more blue than red, partly out of political instinct (it’s where he started, after all, and he’s done this before when given a choice) and partly out of a sense of status. Let’s remember that in the past he has held Labour governments to ransom and demanded that the Greens be locked out. That’s a very unlikely scenario this time, so he may well turn to his friends in blue. It would be interesting to see whether he could accommodate a deal with CC or whether he would make similar status-driven demands of a National-led government as he has in the past with a Labour-led group.

    The big message from this poll seems to be that the left needs to grow its overall proportion of the vote. Will this lead to a middle-ground drift?

    • Fisiani 2.1

      The smart money on Ipredict suggests that the Conservatives will get 5.7% which will mean they would have at least 6 MP’s.

      • gobsmacked 2.1.1

        Fisiani

        If the Conservatives get 5.7% or more, I’ll pay $1,000 to a (non-political) charity of your choice.

        If they get less, you’ll pay $500 to a similar charity of my choice.

        Deal?

        • Fisiani 2.1.1.1

          I am not claiming that they will get 5.7% , Can you not read? If You have $500 to lose why not use your genius to put it smartly on Ipredict?

          • Pascal'sbookie 2.1.1.1.1

            You said it was the smart money.

            According to polls the conservatives haven’t moved a bit despite the recent coverage. The herald poll has them down to about half of where they consistently were 6 or so months ago.

            • Vagabundo 2.1.1.1.1.1

              The coverage wasn’t exactly the most flattering now, was it?

              • Pascal'sbookie

                The voters he’s after won’t be expecting flattering coverage of a true conservative (TM), not from the progressive socialist infested media. If he got coverage that din;t mock him, they would like him less.

                But he still can’t get a wee budge.

                There was an interview with him on the Ruminator blog. Well worth reading. The interviewer, Jackson James Woods, does a good job at getting/letting him talk. Craig might improve. But he’s always one idiot thing away being a liability.

                • lurgee

                  “The voters he’s after won’t be expecting flattering coverage of a true conservative (TM), not from the progressive socialist infested media”

                  That’s funny, but only marinally more funny than the continual bleating about media CONSPIRACY and BIAS around here. Yes, people, you’re almost as mad as Colin Craig.

                  “The interviewer, Jackson James Woods, does a good job at getting/letting him talk”

                  This is why I can not abide Kim Hill. She is continually interrupting, badgering and showing off what a Fierce Interviewer she is.

      • Colonial Viper 2.1.2

        After the Righties wasted millions backing ACT??? “Smart” money LOL

      • Lanthanide 2.1.3

        No, the obviously manipulated stock on iPredict guesses they’ll get 5.7% of the vote.

        You’re a sucker if you believe it. Just read the iPredict forums (apparently you don’t need a login) to see people suggesting an alternative binary contract of whether Colin will get a seat or not, simply because it’s very cheap to push that stock up over 5% and very expensive to push it back down.

  3. alwyn 3

    The only poll that is done regularly is the Roy Morgan one, which comes out every two weeks or so.
    If you are in the Labour I think that the trend that is showing up there really will frighten you.
    David Cunliffe was elected leader of the party on 15 September. If one looks at the polls after this date, each covering two weeks and with the first one being September 16-29 and the last Novermber 25-December 8, we see the votes for Labour being 37%, 37%, 35.5%, 32%, 34% and 30.5%
    National go 42%, 41.5%, 42%, 45.5%, 44.5% and 45%. The Green party go 11.5%, 12.5%, 11%, 12.5%, 11% and 14.5%.
    Thus, at the start the Lab/Grn vote was 48.5 and National 42. At the end they are even. That is not just a random swing but a definite trend.
    It appears that the more that the public see of David Cunliffe the less they like him. That seems to fit in with the fact that the least approving of him in the party are the caucus, who must know him the best.
    How low do the polls have to go before he is defenestrated?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 3.1

      Its election year Alwyn, labour just gets more publicity and around election time gets roughly equal billing with national.
      The last polls before the last election over predicted Nationals vote, and will do so next time. Actual result for National will be closer to 42%- which means with their minor support parties they are out, unless they do a deal with Winston

    • bad12 3.2

      Actually alwyn your analysis while quite clever suffers a fatal flaw which would simply leave ‘it’ lying bare as mere biased comment,

      The fact is, Cunliffe is horribly, and i believe deliberately, under-exposed by the New Zealand media across the whole spectrum,

      Instead of counting the %’s in the Roy Morgan, which have in the main shown the 2014 election will be tighter than the previous one you should look across the media for appearances by Cunliffe when compared in number and duration to those of Slippery the Prime Minister and there you will see a gross imbalance of coverage favoring the incumbent a situation that will change dramatically in the months leading up to the 2014 election,

      Helen Clark was also all but ignored by the media a year out from Her becoming the Prime Minister, something i doubt She cared diddly squat about as She traveled the country building support among the community un-reported upon by the mainstream,

      If the polls are correct in their stated level of support for NZFirst,(something i doubt simply based upon the darkest days for that Party still delivering it 4.8% of the vote in 2008), then i would suggest barring a miracle National in a close race will not be able to form a majority…

    • lurgee 3.3

      we see the votes for Labour being 37%, 37%, 35.5%, 32%, 34% and 30.5%
      National go 42%, 41.5%, 42%, 45.5%, 44.5% and 45%. The Green party go 11.5%, 12.5%, 11%, 12.5%, 11% and 14.5%.

      That just looks like typical variation around an actual level of support of around 34-35%; which is pitiful, but I don’t think the numbers are actually sinking … Still, numbers like that did for Shearer. Wonder how long before knives come out for Cunliffe? I love the left. Always on the attack, but never attacking the enemy.

      • alwyn 3.3.1

        A drop from 37% to 30.5% is twice the margin of error and there is a pretty steady decline over the 10 week period. I don’t think that that can be described as simple a variation around some mid-point.
        If you went 37%, 32%, 35.5%, 34%, 37% and 30.5% you might be able to say it of course but I don’t think so here.
        The Green numbers can be, but not the other two parties. National, with three at about 42% and then three later ones at about 45% seems to be a real increase also.
        I shall have to dig out some of my old Stats books and see what any test would say.

        • lurgee 3.3.1.1

          A drop from 37% to 30.5% is twice the margin of error

          Surely, the actual level of support would be in the middle? The high one and the low one are both natural variation, round an intermediate mean, or what ever clever numbers people call it.

          You’re doing what climate change ‘sceptics’ do when they claim there has been no warming for 17 years.

          I’m not suggesting Labour shouldn’t be desperate about their poll position – see my comments down thread – but the problem is that their numbers are stagnant, not that they are falling. A few more polls like this, and yeah, then there will be a problem. But you’re confusing statistical noise with a definite trend.

      • bad12 3.3.2

        Never attacking the enemy??? that is delusional, i suggest you have a read of the other Posts today…

  4. Enough is Enough 4

    “This landscape shaping up just like 1996 in some important ways. If voters want to change the government, their best choice is Labour, not New Zealand First.”

    However if the voters want to change the government, and ensure that real change is made to our society with the neo liberal wet dream being shot forever, they must vote Green.

    Any other option will return a government that maintains the status quo.

    Parker and English are cut from the same cloth.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 4.1

      Greens are for the status quo as well.

      Thats why Sue Bradford was shafted, no more scary radicals

      • bad12 4.1.1

        You are kidding right, we re talking of the MP who got awarded the ‘best behaved’ in the Parliament,

        What exactly was radical about Sue’s time in the Parliament, Met’s came from the exact same ‘radical’ back-ground as Bradford albeit without the carefully staged media events, i well remember one of those from the planning stage to the bashing on the gates of Premier House with fake paper batons,(you can guess the intention which was also discussed befor-hand)…

    • thechangeling 4.2

      And instead of being screened out, some newer members of the Labour team are as neo-liberal and elitist as they come!

  5. lurgee 5

    “These days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left.”

    By showing an increase in the vote for National, and a fall in the Labour-Green bloc-that-isn’t? By showing NZ First also down? That’s moving left? Come off it. Stop trying to spin straw into red gold.

    This poll is grim for Labour and the Greens. Two and a half terms under a useless government of clowns, a new leader, and the leftie bloc is still struggling to match National alone. If the economy does not tank (and that is largely down to Australia, China and the USA, not Bill English), and Key doesn’t actually start flicking the bird at people in public, I am very worried that they may get back in 2013.

    Frighteningly, the left may be relying on Winston getting above 5%.

    And if some combination of Labour-Greens-NZ First- Mana do manage to scrape together some sort of government, it will likely be a riven, short-lived, ineffective one.

    Which actually prompts me to wonder if the party bigwigs had already written off 2013 when they let Cunliffe win.

    Which shows I can be as crackpot paranoid as the rest of you.

    • gobsmacked 5.1

      I am very worried that they may get back in 2013

      Now that *would* be a snap election … ;)

      I’ve said it before, but it’s always worth repeating: every single poll in 2011 said National would govern alone. Every single one.

      That’s what Rob is hinting at with “learning the lessons of history”. Like nearly everyone else, he overestimated National’s support at the last election. Let’s plug that memory hole.

  6. Matthew 6

    Also no mention of Cunliffe’s dire performance in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. He is yet to surpass Shearer!

    It’s all looking a little desperate for the left in 2014 with the only hope being a cobbled together co-alition involving 4 or more parties.

    • Tracey 6.1

      lol… unlike a coalition of ACT and UF which collectively were wanted by fuck all of NZ… nothing cobbled there.

    • Francis 6.2

      Very hard to rank high in that poll when you have virtually no exposure in the media. Besides a few 5-10 second “sound bites”, there has been practically nothing directly from David Cunliffe in the media. At the same time, you have the right-wing bias media spewing a lot of crap about how “arrogant” he is (I think the editors accidently put him instead of John Key), and it’s not surprising people aren’t ranking him very highly.

      A few 15-20 minute interviews in prime-time (which would have to happen in election year), and I’d expect that to change.

  7. Ad 7

    David Cunliffe needs to snap his office and caucus out of a torpor.

    Twyford and Goff are the only other two of caucus firing. It is utterly stark that there is no consistent messaging coming out of Labour, no themes emerging, and the next opportunity seems to be the State of the Nation set piece in mid February next year (which again is only an echo of Key’s own speech not Cunliffe’s own initiative).

    His office appears not to have coherent message control, and Cunliffe is far too much the narrow politician, and not the wider leader that New Zealand needs him to be. It’s similar (but not as bad as) Brown: Cunliffe goes into 2014 with no momentum in the media or in the public mood.

    We fought damn hard to get him there, and this is piss poor reward for the effort. Don’t talk to me about ‘in the margin of the poll of polls either’. Wrong side of this ‘margin of error’ this time next year will see Key in for a third term.

    Plenty of people will say ‘give him time’ and “it gets better in election year’, or ‘too soon’. I say horseshit. Labour should have had sustained polling progress off fantastic government failures.

    Shape up Mr Cunliffe you are drifting. And the Party is drifting with you.

  8. Wayne 8

    The main thing you are missing (or ignoring) is that the Nats are finishing the year with a lot of good news, and that is starting the affect the mood of voters.

    A lot of the bad political news are already seen as last years stories, e.g. GCSB (which people have essentially forgotten since it does not actually affect anyone in any practical way), asset sales, National Standards, etc.

    It has been a little while since there was a significant bad economy story. Most recent stories are about growth, good agricultural prices, more housing starts, higher manufacturing, higher inwards migration, better prospects for employment, etc. It will extremely difficult for Labour to credibly argue that the Nats are hopeless economic managers.

    The one negative for the Nats is the Children’s Commissioner report, but for most people an upward swing in the economy is going to be seen to help children.

    In fact it is quite possible the Nats may improve their poll results in 2014, as the economy continues to build. Labour may well need an unpredictable event that is badly handled to reverse the trend.

    Now I appreciate govts can change when there is an economic upswing as in1999, but in that case the recession was 5 to 6 years in the past, and the govt looked a bit of a mess after the Nat/NZF coalition fell apart. John Key’s Cabinet looks vastly better organized than the situation going into 1999.

    In fact as the post indicates this is more like 1996, the recession is just over and Winston holds the balance. But the difference is that the Nats are only 5% off a majority, not 15% off a majority as in 1996.

    • Tracey 8.1

      you forgot to finish with

      Here ends the party political reprint for the National Party.

      And whoever said lying doesnt pay, never met the current members of the national Caucus (and hangers on)

      • Wayne 8.1.1

        Tracey,

        Just because I have a different view to you does not mean I am a liar. And I don’t suggest that about most left commenters unless they have made a factual error. Even then I would not say they are lairs. People make factual errors all the time. It does not mean they are liars. To lie means to say something knowing that it is not true. Opinion, or a particular interpretation, or error is therefore not a lie.

        In any event, my main point is that there is a lot of good economic news about. I did not say there was absolutely no bad economic news. Are you really suggesting the preponderance of economic news at the moment is basically bad (at least in terms that I have used).

        I can see the some might say high dairy prices are bad because of the environmental affects or that new house starts of the sort National encourages leads to more urban sprawl.

        • KJT 8.1.1.1

          Yes. The economy is looking up. It usually does when the world is coming out of a recession.

          And, A brighter outlook for the economy does favour the incumbent Government. Even if it is despite their policies.

        • Tracey 8.1.1.2

          I didnt call you a liar, and never intended to. I am referring to the current government and its hangers on who spin and spin and spin. I just dont share your view of good news. To me economic good news means that all people are lviing well, happy healthy and access to equal opportunity etc etc. I havent seen any such good news or anything int he last 30 odd years to suggest the news you consider is good will result in that.

          So yes, i am saying I havent seen any good economic news lately. I definitely havent seen any decent non partisan analysis of the so called good news either, and dont expect to.

          “To lie means to say something knowing that it is not true.”

          and to say something with wilful disregard for whether its true or not.

          yours is quite a narrow definition. I ought to have including misleading in my line.

          lying
          noun
          dishonesty, perjury, deceit, fabrication, guile, misrepresentation, duplicity, fibbing, double-dealing, prevarication, falsity, mendacity, dissimulation, untruthfulness Lying is something that I will not tolerate.
          adjective
          deceitful, false, deceiving, treacherous, dishonest, two-faced, double-dealing, dissembling, mendacious, perfidious, untruthful, guileful You lying, cowardly beast!
          deceitful straight, frank, reliable, straightforward, sincere, honest, candid, truthful, forthright, veracious

          • poem 8.1.1.2.1

            +1 Tracy

          • Bearded Git 8.1.1.2.2

            +100 Tracey. Agree about the spin.

            The problem is National are so good at the spin-Labour/Greens need to expose it as spin. I think Cunliffe has shown the ability to do this when interviewed recently on the asset sales issue. It’s also easier to expose spin in an election campaign when coverage of the major parties tends to be more even.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 8.1.1.2.3

            to say something with wilful disregard for whether it’s true or not.

            Oh my.

            Well said Tracey.

            …and then they (looking at you, Dr. Mapp) go and base policy on it.

    • Pascal'sbookie 8.2

      Well there is the auditor general saying she wants to take another look at Solid Energy, so that’s a thing.

    • gobsmacked 8.3

      Labour may well need an unpredictable event that is badly handled to reverse the trend.

      Well, I can give you three predictable events in 2014:

      – John Banks will be in court
      – Kim Dotcom will be in court
      – Colin Craig will be in the media

      Plenty of headlines there for National to enjoy.

    • geoff 8.4

      It has been a little while since there was a significant bad economy story. Most recent stories are about growth, good agricultural prices, more housing starts, higher manufacturing, higher inwards migration, better prospects for employment, etc. It will extremely difficult for Labour to credibly argue that the Nats are hopeless economic managers.

      Any good economic signs have occurred IN SPITE of National’s economic management. All of the economic structural imbalances that were in place at the start of National’s tenure are still here or have gotten worse. The lack of affordable housing continues to be the elephant in the room that National pretends doesn’t exist. EVERYBODY is cognizant of this problem and you imply that people are too stupid to see that National refuses to help the country with this problem??? Good grief.

      That’s completely hypocritical of you, Wayne, considering how many times you have accused lefties of being out of touch with ‘real people’. Not all of us have the same memory problems as your idol, JK, it’s not difficult to remember all of the massive failings of the National government. (Although it may be difficult to count them.)

      You don’t given New Zealanders much credit if you think they haven’t seen right through this National government by now.
      Kiwi’s have given the John Key Show plenty of chances and they’ve failed time and time again.
      GCSB, house/rent prices, asset sales, oil exploration, to name but a few. All big ticket items that, come election time, Greens/Labour will have no trouble reminding the electorate about how National dropped the ball.

  9. swordfish 9

    Right, my highly significant others…..

    Putting aside (admittedly highly important) niceties like whether or not certain small parties will make it back next year, I’ve done a quick bit of analysis comparing poll averages for late 2007 with 2008 General Election Results and for late 2010 compared with 2011 General Election Results.

    The upshot of it all is this:

    The Left Bloc vote at the 2008 Election was exactly the same as its poll average for Nov/Dec 2007.
    At the 2011 Election, the Left Bloc (quite similarly) was down just 1 point on its Nov/Dec 2010 poll average. In Nov/Dec 2013, the Left has been averaging just under 46% (bearing in mind there’s still one or two more polls to go before end Dec). So, we might expect 45-46% in 2014 (unless something just a bit dramatic happens).

    The Right Bloc vote at 2008 Election was 1.5 points down on their poll average for Nov/Dec 2007, while at the 2011 Election, their vote was down 3 points. In Nov/Dec 2013 – the Right are averaging 49% (Note: includes ACT, UF, Maori and Con). So, the Right Bloc might expect 46-47 %, all things being equal.

    Peters up 0.5% (2008 Election compared to late 2007 polls), and up 4% (2011 Election compared to late 2010 polls). So, quite possibly holding balance of power (depending on NZFirst taking 5+% and on what the hell happens to the minor parties of the Right). Haven’t bothered with the Election Calculator – leave it up to others…

    Then, again, there is a little variation between the 07/08 pattern and the 10/11 pattern (particularly with NZFirst and the Right), so 2014 Left/Right Bloc votes may vary slightly more from late 2013 polls than I’ve suggested.

    Your Obedient Servant and former Confidante, Mr M Montgomery-Swordfish.

    • Tat Loo (CV) 9.1

      So its not shifting the polls which will matter – but giving left voting people a reason to turn out. And right voters to stay at home.

      • swordfish 9.1.1

        Yep, I don’t want to come over all Calvinist and suggest it’s all set in stone a year out (hence my caveat), but, unless something dramatic happens, it looks like it’s gonna be pretty damn close and mobilising at least a portion of those Labour-leaning erstwhile non-voters will be crucial.

        One pleasing development – the MSM are increasingly comparing the Left and Right Blocs as a whole in their opinion poll analysis. Whereas, of course, in 08/11 they were grossly misleading voters by placing entire analytical emphasis on the wide support gap between National and Labour (FPP-style). Thus encouraging Labour supporters into non-voting (especially with Front-Page headlines like THE DOMPOST’s ‘Labour is Dog Tucker’).

        I do like to think though, that maybe, just maybe, the Nats underperformed at the 08 and 11 General Elections (relative to their poll ratings) because poor polling methodology exaggerated their support-levels. It’d be rather nice to think they’re actually languishing around the 40-42% mark (disguised by iffy polling) as we speak.

  10. rich the other 10

    Huge result for National ,
    Think about it , the last 6 months have been difficult for National but this poll points out the stupidity of labours tactics .
    The referendum and the wasted $9million which achieved NOTHING hasn’t gone down well with voters , Ask your self , what did it achieve , the bulk of the sell policy had already been implemented, what stupidity and it hasn’t gone unnoticed by voters.

    Next year so much will be on a roll, housing , motorway construction, Christchurch rebuild in full swing, farming booming ,oil exploration under way ,mining going ahead ,unemployment down, new schools, new hospitals etc it’s endless.

    This poll is Nationals low point, it’s just going to get better .
    Next year National will govern alone and the perennial knockers will be kicked into touch.

    • gobsmacked 10.1

      If they will govern alone, why does Key want to do electorate deals with ACT, United Future and the Conservatives?

    • swordfish 10.2

      No, my wonderfully pointless Tory friend,

      Let us take a little look at the Nats vote at the 2008 / 11 General Elections relative to what they were polling a year before.

      Late 2007, Nats averaged 49% in polls, 2008 General Election = 45% (so down 4 points).

      Late 2010, Nats averaged 52% in polls, 2011 General Election = 47% (so down 5 points).

      Late 2013, Nats currently averaging 46%, so 2014 General Election = 41-42% ?

      Certainly can’t rule that out, Big Fella.

      • poem 10.2.1

        Very nice analysis Swordfish

      • lurgee 10.2.2

        Terrifyingly, Swordfish, your figures suggest National will get 49% of the vote at the election … And in the longer term, they’ve increased their share of the vote in every election since 2002, so perhaps they will continue until they have 100%. The horror! The horror!

        You’ve quite ruined my day.

        • swordfish 10.2.2.1

          The good news is the Left Bloc are currently polling (on average) 46%. A year out from the 2008 and 2011 General Elections they were on 42% and 41% respectively. Vernon Small quite possibly nails it when he suggests It’ll be down to the wire, but probably National having a very slight edge. Which way you gonna jump, Winnie ?

          • Tat Loo (CV) 10.2.2.1.1

            And why have Labour been deliberately antagonising Dunne? It will be down to the wire, and Labour already chased away their MP who could beat Dunne.

            • swordfish 10.2.2.1.1.1

              Yeah, I’d agree that Labour certainly need to keep their options open. As irritating as Dunne can be, when your’e neck-and-neck it’s not a great tactic to deliberately anatagonise a potential lifeline. Having said that, the chances of a rapprochement are probably fairly slim. Remember, Dunne and the Maori Party were more than happy to go with Brash in 05, Winston and only Winston saved the day.

              I suspect the Nats in Ohariu will always do the pragmatic thing and candidate-vote Dunne if it’s in their party’s best interests. And as Wellington’s *wealthiest seat, it’ll always be Right-leaning in the party-vote and favour a Nat Government (even in 2002). You might almost say the Nats OWN Dunne, hook, line and sinker. He only exists at their pleasure.

              * Believe I’m right in that, but not entirely sure.

    • poem 10.3

      You’ve been breathing in too much noxious gas on planet key haven’t you rich the other. Given a lot of bad shit has happened in the last 3 years, what makes you think national could garner enough support to govern alone this time round, when they couldn’t achieve it 2011?

      • rich the other 10.3.1

        Well spotted poem,
        plenty of shit in the last period and that’s the point, National has held it’s support through difficult times, the out look for next year is brilliant .
        They can only gain support.

        Swordfish figures are historical and make no allowance for the boom times ahead, add in the support the greens are giving the government and you have a landslide victory for NATIONAL.
        BRILLIANT

        • swordfish 10.3.1.1

          BRILLIAAAAAANNNNNNNTTTTTTT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          Reminds me of a mindlessly enthusiastic character from THE FAST SHOW (mid 90s BBC Comedy Skit Series).

          Maybe, just maybe, young Richard, my boy, the Nats underperformed at the 2008 and 2011 General Elections (relative to their poll ratings) because poor methodology meant their support-level was systematically exaggerated. Our fine Tory chums may well, in fact, already be languishing around the 42% mark (disguised by iffy polling).

  11. finbar 11

    Dave, has to learn, to grow, when asked a question,less is enough,rather than more.Park his ego,its almost within our grasp,grasp the future its for ours to grasp.

    • Tat Loo (CV) 11.1

      Too much responsibility for one pair of shoulders, no matter how broad. When does Labour start announcing its renewal of caucus?

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    No Right Turn
  • Time to cut out the middle-woman
    Four days before the Scottish Independence Referendum, the UK's supposedly neutral monarch intervened, telling the Scots to "think very carefully about the future". While cloaked as a "private exchange", it has now emerged that the whole thing was scripted by...
    No Right Turn
  • The courts and the Public Records Act
    Nicky Hager won an important victory in his case against the police yesterday, forcing discovery of the police's internal working documents about the decision to apply for and execute a search warrant against him. While some of the documents will...
    No Right Turn
  • Deficit deficit deficit deficit deficit deficit deficit tax cuts!
    Bill English’s laser-like focus on delivering tax cuts in 2017 whether it is a good idea or not reveals a deep problem that right-leaning parties have with being responsible. The whole idea behind deficit spending, which National has done a...
    Polity
  • Does intensification increase traffic congestion?
    Earlier this week, I took a look at the relationship between congestion and density. I was investigating geographer Phil McDermott’s claim, based on some dodgy data comparing between cities, that increasing density would increase congestion. Economists know that it is...
    Transport Blog
  • Busytown: Tell You What: A Nonfiction Giveaway!
    When Susanna Andrew and I sat down to write our proposal for that old-fashioned thing, a book on paper, we wanted to make the book we wanted to read. What we wanted was to sit down each summer to a...
    Public Address
  • LMAO
    Andrea Vance reports / mocks: Acronyms will go MIA in Defence Force briefing papers as new minister Gerry Brownlee says NOMW (not on my watch). Brownlee has ordered military top brass to remove all acronyms from their ministerial documents as...
    Polity
  • What do plummeting milk prices mean for our fresh water?
    This year milk prices have soured like a bottle left in the sun. There has been much wailing and gnashing of teeth about the economic impact of the fall in prices, but what, if anything does it mean for our...
    Gareth’s World
  • Gordon Campbell on the Pakistan schoolchildren killings
    The slaughter of the children in Pakistan is incomprehensibly awful. On the side, it has thrown a spotlight onto something that’s become a pop cultural meme. Fans of the Homeland TV series will be well aware of the collusion between...
    Gordon Campbell
  • Cuba libre
    President Obama announced this morning: President Barack Obama announced the United States would restore diplomatic relations it severed with Cuba more than 50 years ago, drawing resistance from lawmakers opposed to reconciling with the communist-run island. Apparently those opponents include...
    Polity
  • Find the perfect gift for the gender stereotype in your life
    Trademe has decided to make your holiday shopping easier with a handy-dandy gift finder. Just plug in the vital statistics of the person you’re shopping for, and voila! It’s the perfect tool to reduce the stress of the gifting season....
    On the Left
  • Auckland housing facts
    Statistics New Zealand has published a new study on housing trends in Auckland. It is sobering stuff. Here are the core findings: Since the mid 1980s, home ownership has plummeted in Auckland even faster than across the rest of the...
    Polity
  • Minister ducking for cover over ‘Diplomat Case’
    Apparently the Ministerial Inquiry into what now seems to be being referred to as ‘The Diplomat Case’ ( I have a few other names for it) has been completed and is in front of Foreign Affairs Minister McCully. Initial Reports seem to...
    frogblog
  • An economic comedy in four acts
    Scene IBill English bounces out of his Beehive bed with a surplus of energy, yet feeling rather lacklustre can only pour himself a glass of milk and drag himself to the balcony looking out over central Wellington. He glances over at...
    Pundit
  • Ten best paid bosses in tertiary education
    And their lowest paid colleagues Tertiary Update Vol 17 No 44 Last week the State Services Commission announced the total remuneration for chief executives and vice-chancellors at public tertiary education institutions. Prof Stuart McCutcheon earned at least $660,000. That is...
    Tertiary Education Union
  • Ten most popular stories of 2014
    This Tertiary Update’s top ten most read stories for the year included, at number ten, the massive job cuts at Manukau Institute of Technology and at number two the petition opposing those job cuts. Two more of our most read...
    Tertiary Education Union
  • Ten branches that recruited the most new TEU members
    Waikato Institute of Technology – of 142 members in September 41 joined in the last 12 months = 28.9 percent Tai Poutini Polytechnic – of 54 members in September 14 joined in the last 12 months = 25.9 percent NorthTec...
    Tertiary Education Union
  • Ten rights the government will take away next year
    …but that TEU plans to protect Next year several new laws will come into force that will remove some of your rights. It is more important than ever that you protect your rights by being active in a strong union...
    Tertiary Education Union
  • Ten Te Kaupapa Whaioranga wishes for the New Year
    For the tertiary education worker who has already got a partridge in a pear tree, and a pair of socks, here are other ten things they’ll be looking for. Sadly you will need to campaign for them rather than be gifted...
    Tertiary Education Union
  • Ten of our favourite TEU photos for the year
    ...
    Tertiary Education Union
  • City Centre Priority Cycle Routes
    An update to the Auckland City Centre Advisory Board (page 25) provides some new information about improvements to cycling planned for the CBD and include some artist impressions of just what they might look like – although unfortunately because it comes from a...
    Transport Blog
  • TISA text: US threat to privacy, civil rights, data security
    Press Release – AFTINET Leaked US proposals in the Trade in the secret Services (TISA) negotiations include rules that would threaten privacy and civil rights protections for digital personal data Dr Patricia Ranald, Coordinator of the Australian Fair Trade and...
    Its our future
  • 2014 will be the hottest year on record
    For those of us fixated on whether 2014 will be the hottest year on record, the results are in. At least, we know enough that we can make the call. According the global data from NOAA, 2014 will be the...
    Skeptical Science
  • Leaked TISA text exposes US threat to privacy, data security
    Press Release – Professor Jane Kelsey The US is demanding that New Zealand and other countries accept sweeping rules that would override privacy protections for digitised personal and other data, according to Professor Jane Kelsey from the University of Auckland.17...
    Its our future
  • Males only?
    Like Vaughan Rowsell I get asked to facilitate or be on panels and speak at events a fair bit. Actually not quite like Vaughan – he’s incredibly popular, and for good reason. Vaughan’s publicly announced that he will not accept...
    Lance Wiggs
  • An OTL milestone
    I have no idea how this happened, but this is the 100th post on On The Left! Things are probably going to slow down a bit around here over the holiday break, but thanks to all our bloggers and readers...
    On the Left
  • It’s nearly Foodmass
    Christmas is coming. The halls are decked with boughs of holly (plastic), and decorated with snow (artificial). Tips for Christmas (stress-free) have been appearing since November. Children are over-excited and desperate shoppers are looking for the perfect presents for people...
    Pundit
  • No justice in the UK
    Four years ago, G4S guards killed Jimmy Mubenga by restraining him inappropriately during a deportation - effectively asphyixiating him. But today, a British jury refused to convict them:Three private security guards who restrained the Angolan deportee Jimmy Mubenga have been...
    No Right Turn
  • John Key wants arbitrary detention
    That's the only conclusion that can be drawn from his comments today about the need to lower the threshold for detention:Prime Minister John Key said the Sydney siege gunman highlighted the conundrum for authorities over protecting citizens against potential terrorism...
    No Right Turn
  • Futility: Educating an IED
    Through this year, I have sadly been lured into spending energy trying to teach Martyn Bradbury about modern political science, and what it means for modern politics. He appeared misinformed about what polls are and how they work, so I...
    Polity
  • The OIA Review
    Yesterday, the Ombudsman announced that they had begun their review of OIA compliance. They'll be looking closely at 12 central government agencies, and surveying 63 more, as well as all 27 Ministerial offices. They'll also be soliciting submissions from the...
    No Right Turn
  • Biosecurity it’s everyone’s responsibility
    Biosecurity costs New Zealand millions of dollars in attempting pest eradication and much more in ongoing management of pests in farming, horticulture, beekeeping and conservation, as well as in our own backyards and recreation areas. More work must happen at...
    frogblog
  • Equality, Efficiency and Economic Theory (Social Journal Europe)
    Dani RodrikIn the pantheon of economic theories, the tradeoff between equality and efficiency used to occupy an exalted position. The American economist Arthur Okun, whose classic work on the topic is called Equality and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff, believed that public...
    the Irascible Curmudgeon
  • New Fisk
    Peshawar school attack: Massacre of the innocents born of ambivalence towards Taliban...
    No Right Turn
  • How we pay for a universal basic income – Whiteboard Wednesday.
    Lots of people like the idea of an Unconditional Basic Income (UBI), but can we afford it as a nation? In this Whiteboard Wednesday Geoff looks at the three parts of the Big Kahuna package – Unconditional Basic Income, Flat...
    Gareth’s World
  • This will go down well
    Back in September, Mexican police arrested a group of 43 student teachers who had been travelling to Iguala for a protest against the local government. They handed them over to a local drug gang, who murdered them. Since the massacre,...
    No Right Turn
  • AT Metro Launched
    Last week we mentioned about how Auckland Transport was launching a new PT brand. That occurred yesterday and as well as new look buses, they have also launched a new brand for their public transport operations – AT Metro. Auckland Transport has...
    Transport Blog
  • Whales, dolphins, and ‘gunshots’
    I've just returned from seven days on board SV Vega as part of a small team monitoring the impacts of seismic testing on marine mammals off the west coast of Northland. No research has been done in this area, so...
    Greenpeace NZ blog
  • Meat workers need Jobs that Count
    The CTU is supporting todays Meat Workers Union campaign to combat insecure work in a core New Zealand export industry. Photo:  ...
    CTU
  • 2014: A Venture Capital Odyssey
    Fresh off the wire from Hong Kong, from your friends and mine at io9: Hong Kong based venture capital firm Deep Knowledge Ventures (DKV) has appointed a machine learning program to its board. Called VITAL, it's an "equal member" that...
    Polity
  • Buzzfeed takes the Herald
    Here's a Herald article this week, titled (I kid you not): 20 somewhat horrible things I do to my kids that I don't feel guilty about [Facepalm] I want the Herald to be good. I really do. I know some...
    Polity
  • Sad
    There's a lot of non-cheery news out there in the lead up to Christmas. There's the Taliban school massacre, the Sydney siege, the US Torture Report, and - at a much lower level, and closer to home - the Treasury's...
    Polity
  • “I said surface, not surplus”
    Here are ten explanations, excuses or distractions Bill English might like to employ over the coming days in response to news that his long promised budget surplus looks to have disappeared....
    Imperator Fish
  • Talking terror
    [Content note: discussion of terrorism and violence] Last month I wrote about the aims of ISIS as NZ’s terror legislation ramped up, how their structure and organisation has become almost impossibly fluid, adapted to social media and the internet in...
    On the Left
  • Letter to the editor – Time to milk a tragedy again, by our Dear Leader
    . . from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com> to: Dominion Post <letters@dompost.co.nz> date: Tue, Dec 16, 2014 subject: Letter to the editor . The Editor Dominion Post . Once again, predictably, our esteemed Prime Minister has exploited a tragic situation for his...
    Frankly Speaking
  • Govt spend on transport out of step with reality
    The National Government is planning to allocate ever increasing amounts of taxpayer funding to build expensive new motorways despite record numbers of New Zealanders flocking to buses and trains, said the Green Party. The Government released its Government Policy Statement...
    Greens
  • Solar homes stymied by Govt inaction
    Government inaction is allowing the big power companies to discourage the nascent solar power sector, the Green Party said today. Green Party MP Gareth Hughes launched a petition today calling on the Government to empower the Electricity Authority to act...
    Greens
  • Foreign buyers for iconic island must add value
    Labour will look very closely at any Overseas Investment Office application to purchase Pakatoa Island if it is not bought by a Kiwi, says Labour’s Land information Spokesperson Stuart Nash. “Pakatoa is an iconic island in the middle of Hauraki...
    Labour
  • Way opening for April Sun in Cuba
    The United States of America’s President’s historic announcement yesterday to restore diplomatic ties with Cuba should be applauded by the New Zealand Government. The announcement marks a turning point in more than five decades of hostility between the two countries...
    Greens
  • Minister ducking for cover over ‘Diplomat Case’
    Apparently the Ministerial Inquiry into what now seems to be being referred to as ‘The Diplomat Case’ ( I have a few other names for it) has been completed and is in front of Foreign Affairs Minister McCully. Initial Reports seem to...
    Greens
  • Energy users need answers on Vector share plans
    Energy Minister Simon Bridges needs to stop ducking for cover about whether or not the Government will support plans to nationalise and then privatise $2.1 billion of shares in the Auckland Electricity Consumer Trust, Labour's Energy spokesperson Stuart Nash says. “It...
    Labour
  • Turning up the heat on working conditions
    A “Jobs That Count” campaign has the full support of Labour, the party’s Labour Relations spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. Organised by the Meat Workers Union, the campaign aims to put the spotlight on job insecurity in the meat processing industry....
    Labour
  • Biosecurity it’s everyone’s responsibility
    Biosecurity costs New Zealand millions of dollars in attempting pest eradication and much more in ongoing management of pests in farming, horticulture, beekeeping and conservation, as well as in our own backyards and recreation areas. More work must happen at...
    Greens
  • Failure to diversify puts prosperity at risk
    Beyond the news that a long-promised surplus is unlikely, further embarrassment is hidden in the fine print of the half year economic and fiscal update, Labour says. "National’s failure to rebalance the economy is further exposed in projections from its...
    Labour
  • Ombudsman probe targets Ministerial integrity
    John Key is on notice that the entrenched cynical and manipulative abuse of official information requests by his Government will no longer be tolerated, Labour’s Open Government spokesperson Clare Curran says. “The announcement by the Ombudsman of a wide-ranging review...
    Labour
  • Bill English’s face is redder than his books
    The Government owes New Zealanders an apology for failing to deliver the surplus it spent four years and two election campaigns promising, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Bill English’s face is redder than the Crown accounts. This is the...
    Labour
  • Is the Health Minister accountable to the public? He doesn’t seem to thin...
    Lately I’ve been involved in a sort of farcical standoff with the Health Minister, who seems to be under the illusion that I have no right to ask questions about conflicts involving Health Promotion Agency Board member Katherine Rich, and...
    Greens
  • Irresponsible tax cuts lead to seventh successive deficit
    National's borrowing to pay for cutting the top tax rate was irresponsible and will likely lead to a seventh successive deficit, the Green Party said today. Treasury have forecast a $572 million deficit this year in its Half Year Economic...
    Greens
  • Minister closes down dissent on climate change
    Minister closes down dissent on climate change In a threatening letter to Maori leaders, Minister for Climate Change Tim Groser says he will be requiring future international delegations to toe the party line, Labour’s Climate Change spokesperson Megan Woods says. “In...
    Labour
  • Heartfelt sympathy for Sydneysiders
    The Labour Party has offered its heartfelt sympathy to the people of Sydney after the hostage situation in the city, says Labour’s Acting leader Grant Robertson.  “Our thoughts are with all those who went through this horrific and traumatic experience....
    Labour
  • Farewell at Phillipstown
    Last Wednesday, I attended the farewell for Tony Simpson, Principal of Phillipstown School. It was a very emotional event where many of us in the large crowd shed tears. Bagpipes and tiny tamariki performing kapahaka brought the house down and...
    Greens
  • The CIA Torture Report
    Earlier this week, the United States Select Committee on Intelligence released the Committee Study of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Detention and Interrogation Program.  The report, which was five years in the making, looked into the CIA’s interrogation techniques from 2001...
    Greens
  • Haere Rā 2014
    We’ve almost reached the end of the Parliamentary year so I wanted to take a moment to reflect on some of my highlights of the term in this blog post. It’s been an absolutely hectic year juggling an election campaign...
    Greens
  • Labour applauds High Court decision on Ruataniwha
    Today’s decision by the High Court on the Ruataniwha scheme is a victory for NewZealand’s environmental groups, says Labour’s Conservation spokesperson RuthDyson....
    Labour
  • A welfare system for the 21st Century
    Today Child Poverty Action Group released a background paper on ‘The complexities of ‘relationship’ in the welfare system and the consequences for children.‘ The report includes 16 recommendations to modernise our welfare system which is no longer fit for the...
    Greens
  • Welfare system out of date and out of touch
    A new Child Poverty Action Group report released today highlights another example of how our outmoded social welfare system is harming kids, says Labour’s Social Development Spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni.  “The complexities of how a ‘relationship’ is defined in the welfare...
    Labour
  • NZ should formally recognise Palestine
    New Zealand should follow the lead of Sweden, and now recognise Palestine as a separate state On 30 October, Sweden’s new government formally recognised the state of Palestine, only the second Western country to do so, after Iceland. Down here...
    Greens
  • James Shaw’s adjournment speech on behalf of the Green Party
    It is a great honour for me to speak on behalf of the Green Party in this adjournment debate. I thank my colleagues for the privilege. I became a MP only 12 weeks ago, a period of time that seems...
    Greens
  • Time to end legalised cruelty of factory farms
    We can ensure that animals are kept in safe and ethical conditions. Claims of economic impact and practicality as justification for animal cruelty just don't stack up.Use our easy e-letter to write to the Minister for Primary Industries Nathan Guy...
    Greens
  • Government can’t rely on geothermal to grow itself
    While Electricity Authority figures showing geothermal has risen from the fourth to the second highest source of power generation are a promising sign for a geothermal renaissance, there can be no cause for complacency, Labour’s Energy spokesperson Stuart Nash says....
    Labour
  • Big bickies for bosses despite subpar performance
    While public service workers are experiencing Grinch-like wage increases state sector bosses have pocketed early Christmas presents in the form of whopper pay hikes, Labour’s State Services spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. “Unbelievably State Services Commissioner Iain Rennie got an additional...
    Labour
  • Consent should come before research grants for phosphate mining
      The Government’s decision to make a grant by Callaghan Innovation to Chatham Rock Phosphate is highly questionable, says Labour’s Science spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “The fact is that the company still has to get a marine consent to mine the Chatham...
    Labour
  • A Tale of Two Farms
    Pig farming has yet again been thrust into the public view with two programmes this week on Campbell Live highlighting the very different conditions for pigs on two very different farms. The first programme exposed the awful conditions on a...
    Greens
  • Dirty Dairy Accord failing to clean up rivers
    The first monitoring report of the Sustainable Dairying Water Accord fails to show progress on cleaning up our rivers since the Accord was introduced, the Green Party said today. The Accord's targets for stock exclusion are weaker than the previous...
    Greens
  • The Indignant Kiwi: Why we need to do more to protect our national bird
    A kiwi, about to be released into the wild, was first introduced to Prime Minister John Key and German Chancellor Dr Angela Merkel on her recent visit to New Zealand. By all reports, Dr Merkel was delighted to meet the rather indignant...
    Greens
  • Conflicted interests and health promotion; my opinion.
    As it happens, I know quite a bit about health promotion. It was an area I worked in prior to becoming an MP. What differentiates health promotion from the strict biomedical model, or from health education, for example, is its...
    Greens
  • Transparency on foreign buyers register needed
    News that Overseas Investment Office officials have been working on a register of foreign buyers of New Zealand homes is a welcome surprise, but Land Information Minister Louise Upston now needs to be clear on the details of the project,...
    Labour
  • National moves on state house sell off
    The Labour Party understands the Government has decided to move ahead with a mass sell-off of state houses. Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says he has been told by sources that Cabinet agreed the plan for their sell-off this week....
    Labour
  • Back-down on expert teacher plan welcomed
    News that the Government has backed down and returned to the drawing board on its flagship ‘expert teacher’ policy will come as a welcome Christmas present to schools and teachers, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Teachers throughout New Zealand...
    Labour
  • John Key can’t duck the blame for internet and phone price increases
    Shareholders are winning out over Kiwi households in the latest episode of the long-running fiasco on copper network phone and internet prices, Labour ICT spokesperson Clare Curran said today. “As predicted last week hundreds of thousands of Kiwi households now...
    Labour
  • An astounding disregard for Māori Affairs
    I have sat on the Māori Affairs Select Committee for most of the last 12 years. I love the committee, its work, its constituency and I especially love how it works differently than other committees, with a strong commitment to...
    Greens
  • Plunging dairy payout will hit regions hard
    The plunging dairy payout will hit New Zealand’s provincial towns and farm service industries hard, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Farmers have been bracing themselves for this expected announcement but it will be small towns and those who...
    Labour
  • Reducing inequality creates a stronger economy
    An OECD report finding New Zealand has one of the fast growing rates of income inequality shows “trickle down” economics has failed and that everyone is better off under a stronger economy, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “The Government should...
    Labour
  • Government surplus target turning sour
    The Government’s golden surplus target is under threat with today’s Crown accounts showing the deficit is $260 million worse than expected, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “It is two blows in one morning for the Government’s economic credibility after...
    Labour
  • Greens call for end to cruelty of factory farming
    The Government must end the legalised cruelty of factory farming, the Green Party said today.Footage shown on Campbell Live this week revealed yet again the appalling, but legal, conditions pigs are routinely kept in on factory farms. The conditions the...
    Greens
  • Milk price plunge creates $6b economic black hole
    The plunge in Fonterra’s forecast dairy payout to a seven-year low for farmers will create a $6 billion economic black hole, showing yet again that National’s failure to diversify is hurting the economy, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The...
    Labour
  • Gender Pay Gap: It’s a Matter of Leadership
    The State Services Commission’s annual Human Resource Capability report for the public sector shows the gender pay gap has not decreased since at least 2010. The gap is 14% across all management roles – a slightly bigger gap than for...
    Greens
  • Pardon me Minister, but the cracks are showing
    Cracks are appearing in Cabinet ranks with the Minister of Pacific Peoples, Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga, throwing his predecessor under the bus over a huge spike in spending by advisers, Labour's State Services spokesman Kris Faafoi says. "Spending to 'staff the...
    Labour
  • Confirmation of no confidence in schools plan
    That just 90 of the country’s 2500 schools have signed up to the Government's one-size-fits all performance pay scheme confirms a wide-spread lack of confidence in it, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The scheme, which creates ‘executive’ and ‘lead...
    Labour
  • John Key’s secret foreign buyers register
    John Key has been secretly planning a register for foreign buyers without telling New Zealanders, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Last week Andrew Little called on John Key to adopt the Australian policy on foreign buyers....
    Labour
  • Another kick in the guts for Christchurch
    The government has walked away from the people of Christchurch with Cabinet’s decision today to cut funding available through local Members of Parliament offices to assist people with their earthquake related issues, says Labour’s Earthquake Recovery Spokesperson, Ruth Dyson.  “Over the...
    Labour
  • State house sell off will make transience worse
    The National Government’s plans to sell off state housing will increase the rate of transience among the poorest families, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. The Growing Up in New Zealand study released today reveals families with children under two...
    Labour
  • Report shows need for independent food safety agency
    The inquiry into the botulism botch-up shows the decision to merge the food safety authority into the Ministry of Primary Industries was a failure, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “MPI has been severely criticised in this report for...
    Labour
  • National needs to pull their head out of the sand on climate change
    Green MPs were out across the country attending Heads in the Sand events this weekend. I spoke at the Christchurch event where a couple of hundred people mimicked the Government’s climate policy by burying their heads in the sand. It...
    Greens
  • Claims of pumping up the volume all noise
    New manufacturing figures from Statistics NZ reveal a further decline in New Zealand's export performance, highlighting the Government's ongoing failure to rebalance the economy, Labour's Economic Development spokesperson David Clark says."The National Government has adopted a volume-based approach in an...
    Labour
  • Mediation Between Lyttelton Port and Union Fails
    The Rail and Maritime Union (RMTU) has opted to continue its overtime ban indefinitely after mediation with the Lyttelton Port of Christchurch (LPC) failed to progress collective bargaining.   “There was no substantial shift in LPC’s position today so the...
    The Daily Blog
  • Letter from Pakistan
    I was in Peshawar last week. It is a vibrant city with a real energy to it. It is my favourite place to be in Pakistan. You feel the energy as you drive around the city. I am in an...
    The Daily Blog
  • Lyttelton Port workers begin overtime ban
    Media Release: Rail & Maritime Transport Union Lyttelton Port workers begin overtime ban Workers of Christchurch Rail and Lyttelton Port have begun an indefinite ban on overtime, according to the Rail and Maritime Transport Union. The ban was announced at...
    The Daily Blog
  • So the United States of Torture is the ally we are supporting to re-invade ...
    How easy is it to con the sleepy hobbits of muddle Nu Zilind? Very. The despicable means by which this corrupt dirty politics Government have gone about trying to use the fear and anger caused by the Sydney hostage situation...
    The Daily Blog
  • A tale of two gunmen – how the media spins
    A tale of two gunmen – how the media spins...
    The Daily Blog
  • GUEST BLOG: Jill Ovens – Auckland Hospital worker cuts – Democracy the ...
    Auckland Hospital kitchen workers tell CEO Ailsa Claire (far right) a week ago that they did not want to be contracted out. Such was the arrogance that no contingency plans were made in the event that these workers would be...
    The Daily Blog
  • Political opportunists out in force over Sydney hostage crisis
    It hasn’t taken long for supporters of New Zealand’s so-called “anti-terror” legislation passed last week through parliament to try and justify it in the wake of the Sydney hostage crisis. Before we even knew much about the gunman or hostage...
    The Daily Blog
  • NZs new hobby – hating the poor
    Last week people queued at the doors of the Auckland City Mission. They are people that are living without enough income to afford the basics let alone the extras we as a society have come to expect at Christmas. Extras...
    The Daily Blog
  • The only people who believed National’s surplus illusion were voters
    Sigh – the sleepy hobbits of muddle Nu Zilind are pretty easy to con aren’t they? National’s surplus was always a joke that would never happen, but in every single focus group, voters believed by overwhelming numbers that National were...
    The Daily Blog
  • Key’s crocodile tears over dirty politics
    John Key: Bloggers ‘not big part of my day’ Prime Minister John Key says bloggers are not a “big part of his day” but he lives in a world where he can’t ignore them. Speaking on TVNZ’s Breakfast programme today,...
    The Daily Blog
  • Why we are in inequality denial and climate change denial
        We are a country in denial over our inequality and climate change. Both issues have the same thread that runs through them. 30 years of neoliberalism has generated its own cultural narratives and myths. We have been taught that...
    The Daily Blog
  • This weeks Waatea news column – Why proclaiming Key as the Politician of ...
      This weeks Waatea news column – Why proclaiming Key as the Politician of the Year is ethically bankrupt...
    The Daily Blog
  • Britomart violence raises questions over rail staff safety
    Media Release: Rail and Maritime Transport Union   Britomart violence raises questions over rail staff safety   The Rail and Maritime Transport Union is raising serious questions over the safety of the staff on Auckland’s train network after violent incidents on...
    The Daily Blog
  • Australia stares down Siege – National Party politicise tragedy
    The Sydney siege has finished, from the reports that are breaking the gunman, Man Haron Monis is dead and one of the hostages has also been killed. The Australian Police seem to have acted incredibly professionally and the real Australian...
    The Daily Blog
  • The termination of the Internet Mana alliance
    Last week the Mana Movement and Internet Party wrote to the Electoral Commission to cancel the registration of the Internet-Mana political party. It was a decision which brought the arrangement between the parties to a natural end after failing to...
    The Daily Blog
  • Peace breaks out between Greens and Labour
    Finally some good news for the Left. Peace has broken out between the Greens and Labour. One of the greatest barriers to a real relationship between the Greens and Labour has been the uncompromising arrogance of the Labour Party Caucus...
    The Daily Blog
  • Little keeps it stupid, simple
    Labour MP drops euthanasia billA bill which would legalise voluntary euthanasia has been dropped by Labour MP Iain Lees-Galloway at the request of his leader Andrew Little. Mr Lees-Galloway had been canvassing support for his End of Life Choice Bill...
    The Daily Blog
  • Dear Ministry for Social Development,
    Dear Ministry for Social Development, I realise you probably already know this, but just a wee reminder of REALITY. You know – the reality of the vast majority of us who aren’t making ends meet and are struggling to live...
    The Daily Blog
  • Social Policy still in the dark ages when it comes to relationships
    Two years ago I became aware of the work of two very able barristers who defend low income women accused of relationship fraud. CPAG then began collecting cases and stories of horrendous misery and victimisation. Then penny was slow to...
    The Daily Blog
  • The truth about inequality
      The truth about inequality...
    The Daily Blog
  • Rather Than Sending Troops To Iraq … Brownlee May Wish To Consider Better...
    There’s something a little unsettling going on at the moment. Ok, many somethings. Of particular concern is the fact that right now, New Zealand troops are training at Waiouru for deployment to Iraq – and, assumedly, the ongoing war against ISIS. Brownlee,...
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  • West Papua’s Saralana Declaration most vital unity development for 52 yea...
    Newly elected spokesman for the unified West Papuan movement Benny Wenda is treated to a chiefly welcome at the opening ceremony of the “unity” meeting in Port Vila. Photo: © Ben Bohane/wakaphotos.com David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific. A...
    The Daily Blog
  • Helen says it all
    Helen says it all...
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  • When Fran O’Sullivan, John Armstrong and Cameron Slater are singing Andre...
    The mainstream media of NZ will never allow a Labour leader who threatens the bastions of neoliberalism from ever taking power. David Cunliffe found that out. So when the mainstream media establishment from Fran O’Sullivan to John Armstrong to even...
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  • Wisdom’s Mirror: Can Grant Robertson Slay the Neoliberal Gorgon?
    HOW TO ELIMINATE one’s rival without getting one’s hands dirty? It’s a problem with a prodigious political pedigree. King David’s lust for Bathsheba drove him to order Uriah, her unfortunate husband, placed in the front line of battle – where...
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  • GUEST BLOG: Miriam Pierard – Sweet Sixteen and able to vote?
    The level of voter participation in elections is an indication of the health of a democracy. Declining turnout across the democratic world, particularly among young people, has led to questions about the legitimacy of our governing institutions. It is time...
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  • Public Equity and Progressive Politics
    We heard from the OECD on Wednesday morning (10 Dec) [Focus on Inequality and Growth] that inequality suppresses economic growth. (Here are Radio New Zealand’s morning reports on this.) This is hardly a surprise to many economists and non-economists alike. The key point in...
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  • Analysis: Final Across The Ditch Bulletin for 2014 – Lorde Help Us!
    Analysis (Text & Audio): Across The Ditch – Selwyn Manning & Peter Godfrey Headline: Final Across The Ditch Bulletin for 2014 – Lorde Help Us! 5AA’s Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning.FiveAA’s Peter Godfrey and MIL’s Selwyn Manning present their last...
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  • Sharing intelligence with CIA torturers
    New Zealand’s spy agencies have long presented intelligence sharing with their US counterparts as mutually beneficial and benign. That stance has always lacked credibility and is now its impossible to justify. The just-released US Senate Intelligence Committee report shows that...
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  • Labour votes for Surveillance State. NZ First Opposes!
    A few weeks before the election, the New Zealand Labour Party decided to cash in on simmering popular discontent with the state of the surveillance state that National’s set up. Never mind their own previous and well-publicized brushes with egregious state-surveillance … they wanted people to know that...
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  • Economic ideology destroys us all
    The OECD’s latest report says “The biggest factor for the impact of inequality on growth is the gap between lower income households and the rest of the population. The negative effect is not just for the poorest income decile but...
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  • 3 simple words for the Labour Party
    I have 3 very simple words for all those Labour Party apologists who are trying to rinse Labour clean here. Get. A. Warrant. You can all try and spin this any way you want, but Labour voted for 24 hour...
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  • 2014 – Year of the angry white knuckle
    I knew Internet/MANA would have to fight National, ACT, Conservative Party, United Future, Maori Party and the mainstream media. I didn’t think they would also have to fight Labour, the Greens and NZ First as well. Apparently feeding hungry kids in...
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  • Chris Rock on cop shootings
    Chris Rock on cop shootings...
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  • Bank Lending: Restrictions and Favourites
    An important story in 2014 has been the Reserve Bank’s ‘loan-to-value ratio’ restrictions, which have made it extremely hard for first-time house buyers to get sufficient finance to buy a house. Corran Dann in TVNZ’s  Q+A (7 Dec) suggested that...
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  • This weeks Waatea news column – How should Waitangi Tribunal ruling on S...
      This weeks Waatea news column - How should  Waitangi Tribunal ruling on Sovereignty be implemented?...
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  • Labour sell us out on warrantless surveillance
    Isn’t it depressing that Labour are selling us out by voting for warrantless spying by an agency caught out smearing them? Last night Labour do what they always do, over compensate on Security issues. So terrified are Labour at being...
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  • This Is The Headline For Test Post
    This Is The Headline For Test Post Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut eget neque facilisis sapien laoreet volutpat. Nulla vel nisl nec purus interdum tincidunt. Phasellus orci sapien, vestibulum et pulvinar non, pellentesque eget leo. Sed...
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  • Question Time in Parliament Today – National Party MPs cheer graph that s...
    This is the graph the National Party were shown by Russel Norman in Parliament today and they all cheered…     …they cheered?!?!?!? That’s beyond denial, that’s just gleefully suicidal....
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  • NZ Pastor Prays For Homosexual Author To Kill Himself
    By Jayden Jameson and Jessie Hume If we ever needed a reminder that homophobia is alive and kicking in New Zealand we have Pastor Logan Robertson from the Westcity Baptist Church. The Westcity Baptist ministry could apparently be described as New...
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  • Political Journalism in the South-Pacific – a new direction for NZ influe...
    Last week, the incredible Pacific Journalism Review celebrated 20 years of promoting and supporting and standing up for Journalism in the South-Pacific. The conference at AUT featured journalists from around the pacific who have battled and fought and been punished...
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  • Antarctica minus the ice – welcome to your future
    Antarctica minus the ice – welcome to your future...
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  • REAL LIFE GUEST BLOG: Lou – 15 shifts in 12 months……permanently homel...
    This is Key’s real life – other NZers aren’t so privileged    15 shifts in 12 months……permanently homeless since May. I went to the Salvation Army yesterday on advice for emergency housing as my temporary accomodation had turned volatile. Just...
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  • Labour Party Members should be furious at reviews findings
    Let’s see The Standard use this image Well, well, well… Labour’s election review: What went wrongLabour’s review panel has reported its findings back about the party’s election campaign and the reasons for the low 25 per cent result, identifying problems...
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  • Judith Collins joins the Sunday Star Times and cements the Rights dominance...
    “I am not a Monster”, hissed Judith Collins   I don’t read the Sunday Star Times, so had no idea that they had just decided to make Judith Collins of all people a new columnist. Her appointment cements into place...
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  • Grey Lynn Festival – very Grey – Art in the Dark – very Dark
    The battle of Helm’s Deep from the Two Towers would have had better OSH conditions than Art in the Dark   Grey Lynn Festival – 2 stars So the Grey Lynn Festival happened last weekend. It’s a day where the good liberal...
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  • ‘Stalking’ Ede
      Tau Henare accuses TV3 of stalkingA former National MP has accused TV3 of stalking after one of its journalists attempted to question a former Beehive spin doctor. Today’s episode of The Nation featured an unsuccessful attempt to question former...
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  • Taxpayer Union, the NZ Herald and Len Brown’s secret hidden love den
    I love the way the NZ Herald introduced the discredited Taxpayer Union in their bullshit story about Len Brown’s secret hidden love den… ‘Secret room’ spending shows need for recall electionsA lobby group says revelations Auckland Council spent $30,000 on...
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  • Eric Garner killed by NYPD original footage
    The horror of a ultra militarised and racist American Police Force who can kill with impunity. Obama claims cameras on every office would stop this type of brutality, these cops knew they were being filmed and killed him anyway. In...
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  • Unjust to imprison us for crimes we haven’t yet committed
    Once again National and Labour have succumbed to the “law and order” brigade enabling the passage of a Bill imprisoning people for crimes they might commit in the future. The Public Safety (Public Protection Orders) Bill allows the Court to...
    The Daily Blog
  • SPCA welcomes glueboard traps ban
    The Royal New Zealand SPCA applauds the ban on the sale and use ofglueboard traps in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics
  • Mediation Between Lyttelton Port and Union Fails
    The Rail and Maritime Union (RMTU) has opted to continue its overtime ban indefinitely after mediation with the Lyttelton Port of Christchurch (LPC) failed to progress collective bargaining. “There was no substantial shift in LPC’s position today...
    Scoop politics
  • Review into Phillip Smith’s escape submitted to Government
    A multi-agency review on the escape of Phillip Smith to South America has submitted its initial report to the Government today....
    Scoop politics
  • Len Brown gets haybales from giant chicken and Ms. Santa Cla
    Today at 10.30am, Ms. Santa Claus and a giant chicken delivered haybales to Len Brown’s office, urging Auckland City Council to decline a resource consent application sought by cage egg producer Craddock Farms....
    Scoop politics
  • Increased Abuse of Parents A Predicted Outcome
    Family First NZ says that the increasing level of parental abuse , especially towards mothers, is an unfortunate but expected outcome of the rise of children’s ‘rights’ and the undermining of parental authority....
    Scoop politics
  • Brownlee’s Misplaced War on Acronyms
    The beleaguered Minister of Defence who reportedly cannot tell an RFL (required fitness level) from an AWQ (annual weapons qualification) has declared war on military acronyms while proving the proverb about those in glass houses....
    Scoop politics
  • Fluoride risks whitewashed in rushed consultation
    Ministry of Health propose to exempt toxic industrial waste products used in water fluoridation from the Medicines Act 1981...
    Scoop politics
  • Practical Tips on Working and Living in New Zealand
    JUANderful Juan” in 7-Minute Migrante Video Project Shares Practical Tips on Working and Living in New Zealand...
    Scoop politics
  • Christmas Day in Prison
    Christmas Day in prison this year will involve swapping the main meal of the day, so that dinner will be served at lunchtime, leaving the evening meal to be sandwiches. This is standard practice for this day....
    Scoop politics
  • Alcohol advertising bans need stronger evidence
    Wellington (18 December 2014): The New Zealand Initiative’s Head of Research, Dr Eric Crampton, today urged Cabinet to look to the evidence before banning alcohol advertising and sponsorship. The Ministerial Forum on Advertising and Sponsorship...
    Scoop politics
  • EPA grants marine consent to OMV NZ Ltd
    The Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) has granted a marine consent to OMV NZ Ltd to continue its development drilling programme in the Maari oil field in the South Taranaki Bight....
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  • DHB puts staff and patients at risk in order to save money
    The Public Service Association (PSA) is alarmed that the Waikato District Health Board (WDHB) is proposing to cut the 4 and 2 roster system, established nationally, for mental health nurses. The PSA represents more than 210 mental health nurses working...
    Scoop politics
  • Ambivilence about alcohol marketing recommendations
    Ministers Adams and Dunn issued a media release yesterday nearly two months after receiving a final report from their Ministerial Forum on Alcohol Advertising and Sponsorship, and four years following an original announcement to review alcohol...
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  • Alcohol forum recommendations: a step in the right direction
    The Forum has stated clearly that that it accepts alcohol marketing plays a role in heavy alcohol consumption and subsequent harm, and that young people need to be protected from it by regulation....
    Scoop politics
  • Court Judgment: Nicky Hager v Police on Dirty Politics Raids
    Mr Hager alleges that steps taken by the second respondent (the Police): first, in deciding to apply for a search warrant in respect of Mr Hager’s premises; secondly, in applying for the warrant; and thirdly, executing the warrant at his...
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  • Holiday home hazards revealed
    Common sense ways to look after your property this summer Auckland, 18 December 2014 – Burglars aren’t the only threat to your home during the holiday season, says AA Insurance. It’s more likely to be broken water pipes, burst hot...
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  • Grieving families should be able to scatter ashes in peace
    Grieving families should be able to scatter ashes in peace 18 December 2014 Funeral directors are relieved that Wellington City Council has finally dropped plans to charge families for permits to scatter ashes in public places. Funeral Directors...
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  • RSA Offers Condolences To Victims Of Sydney Siege
    As an organisation representing over 100,000 New Zealanders, the RSA has today condemned the actions taken by Man Haron Monis during his siege in a Sydney café, and offered their deepest sympathies to the friends and family of Tori Johnson...
    Scoop politics
  • Kiwi activists crowdfund billboard for Simon Bridges
    Almost seven thousand New Zealanders have taken part in a crowdfunding campaign, and have raised enough money to put a billboard up in Tauranga that is directed at Simon Bridges, the Minister of Energy and Resources....
    Scoop politics
  • Leaked TISA text exposes US threat to privacy, data security
    ‘The US is demanding that New Zealand and other countries accept sweeping rules that would override privacy protections for digitised personal and other data’, according to Professor Jane Kelsey from the University of Auckland....
    Scoop politics
  • Lyttelton Port workers begin overtime ban
    Workers of Christchurch Rail and Lyttelton Port have begun an indefinite ban on overtime, according to the Rail and Maritime Transport Union. The ban was announced at a mass meeting at the Port after negotiations between Lyttelton Port of Christchurch...
    Scoop politics
  • Ban on Alcohol Advertising Could Cost Taxpayer
    Responding to yesterday's release of the report of the Ministerial Forum on Alcohol Advertising and Sponsorship, Jordan Williams, the Executive Director of the Taxpayers’ Union says:...
    Scoop politics
  • Farm safety isn’t helped by punitive fines
    Federated Farmers Health and Safety spokesperson, Katie Milne says she is concerned about the impact of the $40,000 fine for a Marlborough farm couple, who weren’t wearing helmets and carrying children as passengers. The Court case, and subsequent...
    Scoop politics
  • New online guide to NZ’s environment goes live
    The Environment Foundation* has launched a new web-based guide to the management of New Zealand’s natural environment....
    Scoop politics
  • Ban On Alcohol Advertising Just One Step
    Family First NZ says that a proposed ban on alcohol advertising at sports events as recommended by a ministerial forum is an important move, but will not solve the binge drinking and alcohol abuse issue on its own....
    Scoop politics
  • CLANZ scholarship winner to examine legal services to Crown
    Wellington in-house lawyer Tania Warburton is the inaugural winner of the research scholarship established by the Corporate Lawyers Association of New Zealand (CLANZ)....
    Scoop politics
  • Joint Australasian operation dismantles drug syndicate
    The Joint Organised Crime Task Force (JOCTF), leading a multi-agency team, has smashed a multi-million dollar international organised crime network following raids across Melbourne this morning....
    Scoop politics
  • Video: Meet Mark Gilbert, U.S. Ambassador-Designate to NZ
    Join us in welcoming Ambassador-Designate Mark Gilbert and his wife Nancy. They are arriving in New Zealand shortly and wanted to introduce themselves. Watch this video to learn about his connections with Aotearoa, and why he thinks the partnership between...
    Scoop politics
  • MIA Welcomes Review Findings
    The MIA welcomes the findings of the Health Quality & Safety Commission into child and youth mortality arising from the use of motorcycles, quads and other agricultural vehicles....
    Scoop politics
  • Quads Bikes Not for Under 16s
    Safekids Aotearoa strongly supports recommendations made in a report released today highlighting the dangers posed by quad bikes when ridden or controlled by children who are under 16 years of age....
    Scoop politics
  • Inquiry on Parliament’s legislative response to emergencies
    Public submissions are being invited on Regulations Review Committee’s Inquiry into Parliament’s legislative response to future national emergencies. The closing date for submissions is Sunday, 1 March 2015....
    Scoop politics
  • Switch off on the beach NOT at level crossings
    KiwiRail and TrackSAFE NZ have launched a new summer rail safety campaign with a message to motorists to stay focused and always look for trains at level crossings over the holidays. December is known as the month for family, festivity...
    Scoop politics
  • Report on child and youth deaths from vehicle use
    Quad bike and other off-road vehicle accidents second largest cause of child recreational deaths...
    Scoop politics
  • Inspector-General accepts apology for leak of report
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, Cheryl Gwyn, has accepted an unreserved apology from Hon Phil Goff MP for disclosing some of the contents of her recent Report into the Release of Information by the NZSIS in July and August...
    Scoop politics
  • Santa’s naughty list shows NZPork in trouble
    Santa has provided animal advocacy organisation SAFE with an early copy of this year’s naughty list , as it prominently features many animal-abusing industries and businesses, with NZPork topping the list....
    Scoop politics
  • WWI veterans had persisting higher risk of early death
    New research on the impact of the First World War on participating New Zealand soldiers shows they typically lost around eight years of life and had an increased risk of early death in the post-war period....
    Scoop politics
  • Rainbow Wellington urges further change from Blood Service
    This week the New Zealand Blood Service (NZBS) announced the implementation of the agreed changes to blood donor deferral. For men who have sex with men (MSM) this primarily involves a reduction of the deferral period from five years to...
    Scoop politics
  • New Zealand Government signals reversal of fortune
    The Government’s robust $372 million forecast surplus from Budget 2014 will turn into a $572 million deficit, according to the 2015 Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update and the Budget Policy Statement. Imports are cheaper and good export prices...
    Scoop politics
  • Time for Jobs that Count in the Meat Industry
    The NZ Meat Workers Union will launch a new national campaign to highlight job insecurity in the Meat Industry this afternoon in Palmerston North....
    Scoop politics
  • Protest at killing of schoolboys – Vigil 17/12/14
    A peaceful vigil will be held in Downtown Square opposite Britomart station – cnr of Queen and Customs St from 11-45 am: Wednesday 17 December 2014....
    Scoop politics
  • Social housing provider opens development in Johnsonvillle
    Social housing provider, Accessible Properties, will be opening eight new social housing units in a new housing development in Johnsonville tomorrow....
    Scoop politics
  • NCWNZ Wins Court Case
    ComVoices welcomes and celebrates the news that the National Council of Women of New Zealand (NCWNZ) has won its High Court case against Inland Revenue and the Charities Registration Board....
    Scoop politics
  • Cut Taxes + Cut Waste = Surplus
    Responding to the Treasury's Half Year Fiscal and Economic Update, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director, Jordan Williams, says:...
    Scoop politics
  • Cuts in public services likely fromBudget Policy Statement
    The horizon for workers looks gloomy with the release today of the Budget Policy statement. “Continuing real cuts in Government funding of public services are inevitable as a result of today’s Budget Policy Statement. The policy ignores the social,...
    Scoop politics
  • Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2014
    The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2014 provides the Treasury's latest economic forecasts and the forecast financial statements of the Government, including the implications of Government financial decisions....
    Scoop politics
  • Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2014
    The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2014 provides the Treasury's latest economic forecasts and the forecast financial statements of the Government, including the implications of Government financial decisions....
    Scoop politics
  • Chief Ombudsman launches major review of OIA practices
    The Chief Ombudsman, Dame Beverley Wakem, has today begun a wide ranging review of Official Information Act (OIA) practices in the public sector....
    Scoop politics
  • The Tasman Sea got a little smaller this morning
    “Our hearts and minds are with the people of Sydney: the Tasman Sea got a little smaller this morning,” said Race Relations Commissioner Dame Susan Devoy....
    Scoop politics
  • A safety message for the festive season from Housing NZ
    Batteries may be required for some of the best toys under the tree this year, but they are just as essential to enjoying the greatest gift of all, says Housing New Zealand General Manager of Property Services, Marcus Bosch. “Smoke...
    Scoop politics
  • Charity Wins in the High Court
    The National Council of Women of New Zealand (NCWNZ) is delighted that the High Court has found in its favour in its case against Inland Revenue and the Charities Registration Board....
    Scoop politics
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