Written By: - Date published: 3:14 pm, June 17th, 2014 - 60 comments
Categories: Uncategorized - Tags:
Rob Salmond at Polity looks at the Herald poll published this morning and looks at what ground the left has to make up. Over recent polls the right vote appears to have been consolidating more and more strongly behind National over the course of this year.
The Internet-Mana Party would get two seats in Parliament based on the first major poll since the two parties cut a deal to stand together.
But, three months shy of the election, Labour is still struggling and the left bloc is well adrift from National, which could easily govern alone based on the Herald-DigiPoll survey.
The actual numbers are:
I’m not going to sugar-coat this. This is no comfort to the left, with solid left bloc stuck on around 41%, only rising to around 46% with a potential wider coalition of Internet MANA and New Zealand First. Even with either Danyl McLaughlin’s or Gavin White’s proposed corrections for (industry-wide) bias, National would likely still win.1 Also, and importantly, New Zealand media polls generally do not account for turnout effects.
Clare Trevett continues:
The results for the Mana Party, Internet Party and Internet-Mana Party totalled 1.4 per cent in the survey – a modest start for the newly launched party which was the centre of attention in the lead-up to the polling period.
That is enough to get new Internet Party leader Laila Harre into Parliament if Mana leader Hone Harawira holds his Te Tai Tokerau electorate.
I’m not sure about that. If Internet MANA stays on 1.4% and Annette Sykes wins Waiariki, then the delegation would be Harawira and Sykes, regardless of what happens in Te Tai Tokerau. Sykes performed strongly there in 2011 off the back of a truncated campaign. With the Maori party slipping nationally, I think she is a real threat to take the seat.
1. Under Danyl’s corrections, a National victory without Winston would be touch and go even today, and would rely on many and varied Cups of Tea. But my view is that these corrections are likely too extreme.