web analytics
The Standard

Polity: Regional income stats

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, December 30th, 2013 - 14 comments
Categories: Economy, employment, spin - Tags:

polity_square_for_lynnThere is always a fool who prefers to invent a story rather than trying to understand it. Rob Salmond points out that David Farrar is one of them. Of course as he also implies that it might be simply convenient for a National puppet to cry “good news” at every possible opportunity in view of their stagnant and incompetent jobless mismanagement of the economy.

The Herald says the regions have rising incomes, but caution against reading anything into it. DPF reads everything into it anyway.

First, here’s your New Zealand Herald on the regional income stats out of the census:

The South Island has had bigger median income gains than the North over the past seven years, Census figures show.

But an expert cautions that the figures may point to changing work and migration patterns, rather than real growth in income for the same people.

Dr [Eric] Crampton said people on low incomes because of unemployment in rural regions might move to the city to seek work.

“If those unemployed in the regions were more likely to move to the big city while those unemployed in the city were less likely to leave, that, too, could explain some of the difference in regional income growth.”

Yep, the regional migration statistics back that up, too. The regions with the supposedly highest median income growth also had some of the worst records in population growth, while the areas whose populations grew the fastest had relatively little change in median incomes.

AUT sociology professor Charles Crothers said the Census statistics undervalued the economic activity for self-employed people.

Statistics NZ said the Census question on income had a high non-response rate, with 9.7 per cent of respondents refusing to say how much they made.

So, the headline figures say one thing, but a parade of experts (including well-known leftie agitator Eric Crampton) say the result is iffy at best and could easily mask the opposite pattern in reality. Let’s seeDPF’s take on the whole thing, under the headline”Didn’t Labour claim the provinces were not sharing in the recovery?”:

So median income down in Auckland and massive growth in Buller, Asburton, Southland and Taranaki. This is what Labour calls the provinces missing out. I never knew they regarded Auckland as a province.

Great job completely ignoring the experts, there! Seriously, how dumb does the right think everybody is?

This is a pattern of behaviour that will bite National next year. They think they can trumpet any old figure as victory, no matter how flimsy the pretence, like the time they claimed victory over unemployment because things were so hopeless that tens of thousands moved to Australia.

New Zealanders are not so silly as they seem to believe.

14 comments on “Polity: Regional income stats”

  1. tricledrown 1

    National are throwing money to the high population areas to maximise its vote .
    Short term thinking again no surprise.
    Building up regions has a longer term payback as it takes time for this money ends up back in the cities economies.
    Buying votes is all National is focusing on.

  2. ghostwhowalksnz 2

    There is a bit of using colours to mask the decline.

    There should be a separate colour for the range of -1% to +1%. Essentially these are static numbers – plus its over 7 years !!

  3. James 3

    “Seriously, how dumb does the right think everybody is?”

    We’re in the second term of a National-lead government. I think they have a good idea.

  4. Tracey 4

    Well said james. Farrar et al know that if it sounds like a fact and gets printed it will be taken as a fact by the media and the skim readers.

  5. Jimmie 5

    Or the reason why many of the regions are doing well is that hateful dairy farmers are enjoying their highest ever payout and are spreading some of their hard earned earnings around….also the oil industry seems to be doing well as well.

    It could be that NZ’s economy is on the up in 2014 which really sucks if you’re hoping for Mr Cunilffe to be PM next year.

    I can see a peak in demand for psychologists next November after the left face another depressing 3 years in the political wilderness.

    John Key won in 2011 because of the earthquakes, and now he’s gona win in 2014 because the economy is booming………..Nuts!

    • Draco T Bastard 5.1

      I figure that NZ’s economy is going to crash next year. No particular reason, just a feeling but then it’s the same feeling I had in 2003 when I said that the global economy would crash between 2006 and 2008.

    • millsy 5.2

      Oh god, another delusional idiot.

      Those at the top will get all the gains from the economic boom, and those on the bottom will get nothing but a slap down when they ask for a share in the good times like a pay rise, or some more government services.

      The same thing happened in the 1990’s and its going to happen again.

  6. Ad 6

    Those South Island stats looked like a map of dairy conversions.
    Queenstown-Lakes won’t move because its choked with retired people on $18k, plus tourist industry workers on $20 under the table.
    Labour used to be able to win regional seats. The map shows why they won’t until they figure out their regional story.

    Remember Karol’s post yesterday complaining about funding for a regional cycling initiative? More regional votes lost to the Nats. Nats understand urban arrogance from the opposition.

    Also for all the free trade critics: all that Chinese and India-destined milk powder actually bought strong measurable economic growth to regions that need it.

    • you_fool 6.1

      I think you missed the point of the post – Yes the dairy/oil industry are doing good, but they are not providing jobs they are shedding jobs and the people who are now jobless move from the region that is “doing well” to a city, or other region, which drags down that region, even if that region was doing fine.

      i.e.

      Region A (rural) had 10 jobs, 100,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20 (one farmer and 9 hands)
      Region B (Urban) had 10 jobs 50,50,50,50,50,50,50,50,50,50 (assumed to be same for this purpose)

      Region A median is 20
      Region B median is 50

      Some time later farmer has fired 8 hands (for what ever reason) and they moved to the city because they felt there was a better chance of getting a job there. 5 of them found jobs (at starting rate of 50)but 3 couldn’t find jobs – his income has increased as well as his costs decreased (i.e. he is making more even without the lower costs). At the same time all the city workers had a pay increase of 10

      Region A now is 175,30 (median 102.5)

      Region B now is 60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,50,50,50,50,50,0,0,0 (median 60)

      Region A has had a percentage increase of 413% whilst Region B has had an increase of 20% but which is doing better? Region A only looks so well because everyone left, but then it also had an increase of real wages. Region B had an increase in real wages, but they is now a big imbalance incomes as the city has become flooded with unemployed rural workers. The farmer is happy, the one farm hand may or may not be happy (his drinking buddies have left, but he has more money.) The city folk and employed displaced farm hands may or may not be happy (have more money, but also have more people taking up resources / had to leave there home town) and the unemployed displaced farm hands are unhappy as they now have no job and can’go home as they know there is no job there.

      • Ad 6.1.1

        Dr Crampton gave no evidence for his assertions.

        You need to pop out to those high income growth areas and judge for yourself.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 6.2

      Ad, the income numbers are from the census, so are self declared.
      Nobody is going to check what you claim here as opposed to what the IRD is told.
      Under the table makes no difference essentially

  7. Chooky 7

    @ Ad ….”Labour used to be able to win regional seats”….agreed!… my parents were regional and from farms and voted Labour all their lives …until my Father disgusted with Rogernomics voted for Jim Anderton…In his time he was a railway man , a freezing worker, a fisherman , an insurance salesman and a farmer….his brother was a pilot ….his Maori and Pakeha friends naturally included those originally from the city and those rural workers and farmers…( some farmers were wealthy city lawyers become farmers) ….but many were humbly economically ‘poor’ workers ( although given their environment they didnt regard themselves as such)….and subsistence farmers

    Labour has to win the Regions if it is to become government in 2014 with the Greens!….many rural people are not wealthy but get by and will be looking for a reason to vote Labour ( many already vote Green because they love the environment)

    This is why the ‘politics of envy’ recently incited imo by Chris Trotter…. and the pitting of Labour Lefty trendo city working class and unemployed against the rural dwellers ( many Green) …..and those ( many women) trying to get by via Farmers Markets is not helpful ….He is attacking both the Green voter and the potential rural Labour voter…And with this sort of spin he is on target to swing it for National ( one wonders where his head is at)

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/12/30/means-of-escape-examining-the-heartland-myth/

    In France Farmers Markets are not regarded as elitist or the produce of the rich …..but a good way far all to eat locally and healthily from the artisan and farmer and the local terroir ….and for a modest price ( cutting out the big supermarkets and multi national business middle men) France probably has the most activist Left working class in the world ….and with this activism goes free education (including university education) and a public health system which leaves USA for dead….as well as leading the world in working conditions and hours…and retirement policies

    Labour MUST win the Heartland!….with inclusive politics and rural economic policies.

  8. dave 8

    its mmp we ony need to engineer a 3 percent swing and slippery is toast i can be liveing in the most blue of seats my party vote counts

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Labour mourns Dame Dorothy Fraser
    Labour Leader Andrew Little said the party is today mourning the loss of the youngest person to join the Labour Party, Dame Dorothy Fraser, who went on to be a stalwart of the Dunedin community and tireless worker for others.… ...
    9 hours ago
  • The ultimate scapegoat: PM blames fruit fly for new tax
    The Prime Minister has found the ultimate scapegoat for breaking his promise not to introduce a new tax – the Queensland fruit fly, Labour’s Biosecurity spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “John Key’s first policy upon taking office and assigning himself the… ...
    11 hours ago
  • How many victims missing out on protection?
    Hundreds of domestic abuse victims could be missing out on getting protection orders because they are unable to get legal aid, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says.“In the last two years some 351 people who applied for legal aid for… ...
    2 days ago
  • Government kicks hardworking whanau
    A major incentive to help young Kiwis and people on low incomes to start saving has been kicked out from under them with the National-led Government ramming through short-sighted legislation under Urgency today, Labour’s Maori Development Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says.… ...
    2 days ago
  • Speculator tax political stunt gone wrong
    Bill English’s admission he doesn’t know whether National’s new speculator tax will have any effect shows last weekend’s announcement by the Prime Minister was a desperate political stunt, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “This Government is so desperate to… ...
    2 days ago
  • The value of parenting
    This week, as part of the Budget, the government introduced a bill to address child poverty. This bill will require parents receiving income support to look for part-time work once their youngest child is three years of age rather than… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 days ago
  • Another new tax, another broken promise
    National has unveiled yet another new tax in this budget – a rural broadband levy that will almost certainly result in an immediate price hike for internet and telephone connections across New Zealand, Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran said “The… ...
    3 days ago
  • Anniversary of Sri Lankan Tamil Massacre
    This is not going to be a happy story but if the Green Party of Aotearoa doesn’t want to know who else will? May 18th marks the anniversary of what is known as the ‘Mullivaikal massacre’ of Tamils in 2009 at… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    3 days ago
  • Labour MPs join youth to take part in 40 hour famine
    A team of Labour MPs took part in the 2015 World Vision 40 hour famine and we were told by World Vision and the young people, that it was the first time MPs had joined them and how appreciative they… ...
    3 days ago
  • Rodeo: ‘Family entertainment’ or animal abuse?
    Recently  TVNZ ran a story with confronting footage showing rodeo animals being punched, repeatedly shocked with electronic prods and having their tails violently twisted over their backs. It was clear that significant force was being used behind the scenes to make… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    3 days ago
  • Budget puts the squeeze on police
    The Government has cut funding to the New Zealand police force in the latest Budget, says Labour’s Police spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The reduction is a whopping $15.3 million that could put front line officers at risk. ...
    3 days ago
  • Crucial social services take another hit
    The Government looks set to slash half a million dollars of funding for critical social services, including Women’s Refuge and Barnados, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni “Taking $500,000 from organisations aimed at improving the lives of vulnerable families… ...
    3 days ago
  • Saying it Loud on Climate in Christchurch
    The Government’s Christchurch consultation meeting on New Zealand’s emission targets was inspiring – not for what was in the Ministry for the Environment’s (MFE’s) defeatist video about the obstacles to changing to a low carbon future, but for what the… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    4 days ago
  • Budget silent on small business
    The Government has completely ignored one of the most important sectors of the economy – small and medium-sized enterprises – in Budget 2015, Labour’s Small Business spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. "A stunning 41 per cent of jobs were created by… ...
    4 days ago
  • Thank you John, it’s been bloody marvellous
    The departure of John Campbell is a blow to current affairs investigative journalism, Labour’s Broadcasting Spokesperson Clare Curran says. “Campbell Live stood out in its field. Its axing comes as local broadcasting in New Zealand remains in a state of… ...
    4 days ago
  • KiwiSaver cut shows no long-term plan
    National’s cutting of the KiwiSaver kickstart is incredibly short-term thinking, typical of a Budget that is woefully short on ideas to generate wealth and opportunity, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “New Zealand’s savings rate is far too low. KiwiSaver… ...
    4 days ago
  • National hits the panic button for its 7th Budget
    National has hit the panic button for its 7th Budget in a desperate attempt to look like they’re taking action to reduce our shameful child poverty rates, but they are giving with one hand and taking with the other, Opposition… ...
    4 days ago
  • Panic and back-flips can’t hide twin deficits
    National’s token measures to fight fires they have left burning for seven long years can’t hide a Budget that is long on broken promises, short on vision and fails to reach surplus, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “After being… ...
    4 days ago
  • Auckland land measure seven years too late
    National are so desperate to look like they are doing something about the Auckland housing crisis they have dusted off Labour’s 2008 inventory of government land available for housing and re-announced it, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Despite National… ...
    5 days ago
  • Access to gender reassignment surgery essential
    I was frankly disgusted to hear the Minister for Health say that funding gender reassignment surgeries is a “nutty idea”. A recent study found that in New Zealand 1% of young people identified themselves as transgender, and 3% were unsure… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    6 days ago
  • Global milk prices now lowest in 6 years
    The latest fall in the global dairy price has brought it to the lowest level in six years and shows there must be meaningful action in tomorrow’s Budget to diversify the economy, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Dairy prices… ...
    6 days ago
  • Big risks as CYF checks stopped
    Revelations that Child, Youth and Family is no longer assisting home-based early childhood educators by vetting potential employees should set alarm bells ringing, Labour Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. “Doing away with an extra mechanism for checking potential new employees… ...
    6 days ago
  • Housing crisis about real people not numbers
    The Government’s continued failure to tackle the housing crisis is seeing thousands of vulnerable Kiwis being kept off social housing waiting lists, while others, who are on the list, are being forced to live in cars and garages, says Labour’s… ...
    6 days ago
  • Housing crisis about real people not numbers
    The Government’s continued failure to tackle the housing crisis is seeing thousands of vulnerable Kiwis being kept off social housing waiting lists, while others, who are on the list, are being forced to live in cars and garages, says Labour’s… ...
    6 days ago
  • State of origin
    Kiwis are increasingly concerned about the food they give their families. New Zealand consumers have the right to know where their food has come from, particularly when it involves animals, and should be able to expect our Government to label… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    6 days ago
  • Relationships Aotearoa
    It is disturbing that Relationships Aotearoa, a voluntary organisation set up in 1949 to help couples struggling with their relationships following the upheavals of World War II, may be forced to close, says Acting Spokesperson for the Voluntary and Community… ...
    7 days ago
  • An economy that is just working for some is an economy that is not working
    The National Party presents itself as a great manager of the economy, but if the economy is only working for some we really need to question that assertion. Alongside the perpetually elusive surplus, the levels of risk in our economy are… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    7 days ago
  • An economy that is just working for some is an economy that is not working
    The National Party presents itself as a great manager of the economy, but if the economy is only working for some we really need to question that assertion. Alongside the perpetually elusive surplus, the levels of risk in our economy are… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    7 days ago
  • House prices to a crack $1 million in 17 months
    The average Auckland home is on track to cost $1 million in 17 months’ time if nothing substantial is done to rein in soaring price rises, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Auckland’s house prices have skyrocketed 63 per cent… ...
    7 days ago
  • Vital support services can’t be left in lurch
    The National Government has big questions to answer about how a provider of services to thousands of vulnerable New Zealanders is set to fold, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. Relationships Aotearoa which provides support and counselling to families, individuals… ...
    1 week ago
  • Treasury and IRD on a capital gains tax
    Both the Treasury and IRD have been advising the National Government on the benefits of a capital gains tax. Documents released to the Green Party under an Official Information Act request show that John Key has been selective with the… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    1 week ago
  • Charity legislation needs review
    It is unacceptable that the big corporate based charities claim  millions in annual income tax exemptions, while small community based and operated non-profit organisations  struggle to gain official charity status, Labour’s acting spokesperson for the Voluntary and Community Sector Louisa… ...
    1 week ago
  • John’s panic-Key response to housing crisis
    John Key needs to tell New Zealanders what caused his sudden change of heart that led to the Government’s scrambled and last-minute housing measures, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “The Prime Minister’s sudden rush of blood to his head followed… ...
    1 week ago
  • Keep our Assets Christchurch Campaign: An update
    I recently presented my submission to keep Christchurch Council assets at the Christchurch City Council’s public hearings on its 10 year plan on 13 May. The hearings are live-streamed and recorded so you can watch them on www.ccc.govt.nz. The Council’s… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    1 week ago
  • John Key finally admits there’s a housing crisis
    John Key’s weak measures to rein in the astronomical profits property speculators are making are an admission – finally – that there is a housing crisis, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “But yet again National is tinkering with the housing… ...
    1 week ago
  • Government stifles voices in CYFs review
    The Government’s exclusion of the Māori Women’s Welfare League in a panel on the future of CYFs is a cynical ploy to stifle views, says Labour’s Māori Development Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta. “It's unbelievable that a significant review on the future… ...
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the Otago Chamber of Commerce
    Thank you very much for the opportunity to be here today. It’s a pleasure as always to be back in the town that raised me. Growing up in St Kilda meant that there was one thing that was a big… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Key can’t just be Prime Minister for Parnell
    John Key must show New Zealanders in next week’s Budget that he is more than the Prime Minister for Parnell, and is also the Prime Minister for Pine Hill, Putararu and Palmerston North, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. In… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Stop the conversions
    This week, some Waikato locals took me and intrepid photographer Amanda Rogers on a tour of some  lakes and waterways in their region, and up to the massive dairy conversions in the upper catchment of the Waikato River. It… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • More regional jobs go in Corrections reshape
    News that 194 Corrections staff are to lose their jobs will have ramifications not only for them and their families but for the wider community, Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. Prison units at Waikeria, Tongariro and Rimutaka face closure… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government’s climate meetings off to a bumpy start
    On Wednesday, I attended a hui and an evening meeting that the Government had organised in Nelson as part of its climate change consultation tour, to support the Nelson community telling the Government to take meaningful action on climate change.… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Taxpayers the only ones left feeling blue
    Ministry of Social Development bosses could have saved themselves thousands of dollars in consultants’ fees by providing staff with rose-tinted spectacles, Labour’s State Services spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. A report out today reveals the Ministry is spending over half a… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Why are the regions still facing restrictions?
    Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford is questioning why the regions should continue to be saddled with LVR lending restrictions announced by the Reserve Bank today. “Labour has been calling for the regions to be exempted from LVRs for the best… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The high costs of weak environmental regulation
    Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere is described on the Department of Conservation website as “Canterbury’s largest and New Zealand’s fifth largest [lake], and an internationally important wildlife area.” But the lake is also polluted by nutrients leaching from farms in the catchment.… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Submissions to Wellington City Council on their Gambling Venues Policy
    Every three years Councils across the country are required to check that their gambling venue policies are still fit for purpose and they can choose to consult on their policy if they are thinking of making changes. Councils don’t have… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Reserve Bank action shows Govt out of touch and out of ideas
    The Reserve Bank’s unprecedented measures today show it understands the serious risks of the overheating housing market – in complete contrast to John Key’s refusal to acknowledge the crisis, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The Bank is right to… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Send us your snaps: 25 Years of the Green Party
    This year we've hit a milestone. We're turning 25.To help celebrate a quarter of a century, please send us your photos from the last 25 years of the Green Party Aotearoa New Zealand! Note: Photos must be jpg, gif or… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 25 Years of the Green Party
    This year the Green Party sends 25. To help us celebrate a quarter of a century please send us you photos of 25 years of the Green Party!Photos must be jpg,gif or png and smaller than 2MB. If you are… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bay growth plan too little too late
    Today’s Bay of Plenty growth study from MBIE is another example of Government spin - lots of talk but little action, says Labour’s Regional Development spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “This is a region that desperately needs to develop the downstream processing… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government bows to ACC pressure
     The Government has finally buckled to pressure from Labour and the New Zealand public in making a half billion dollar cut to ACC levies, but the full benefits are two years away,” says Opposition Leader Andrew Little.  “$500 million over… ...
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere