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Poll of polls looking good

Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 14th, 2013 - 136 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags: ,

It’s an occupational hazard of being political obsessives of course, but we (bloggers / writers / commenters) tend to over react to individual polls. Polls come with built in “noise”, error that means that the figures quoted can only be approximate. The last Roy Morgan in January had National on 46% (unchanged) and Labour on 31.5 (unchanged). Our own Zetetic wrote a piece lamenting that Labour was “flatlining” in the polls. But were they really? On that evidence we couldn’t be sure.

In contrast yesterday’s Roy Morgan had National at 44% (down 2) and Labour 34.5 (up 3):

As the headline puts it “LABOUR, GREENS WITH MINOR PARTIES WOULD WIN ELECTION”. So is Labour surging ahead? Maybe. On this evidence we can’t be sure.

What is more useful are the “poll of poll” measures that weight and combine several polls over an extended period. Here’s the Pundit poll of polls from January:


From this we can see trends with more confidence:

  • The Nats are slowly falling
  • Labour is slowly climbing
  • The Greens have fallen from their post election high but are stabilising

(When the current Roy Morgan is added it will add a bit more support.)

For all that many commenters here are impatient with Labour, it is the Greens who are both down on their post election high, and static. But over all the poll of polls is looking good for the political left.

I want to see both main parties of the Left doing better – moving forward together (well clear of the range where NZF or any other party would hold the balance of power). In my personal opinion good coordination and cooperation between Labour and the Greens could achieve this, could be the game changer. So how about it?…

136 comments on “Poll of polls looking good”

  1. Tom Gould 1

    Indeed, the trend is encouraging. It is no longer fantasy to suggest Labour slowly climbing to the high thirties and the Greens to the mid-teens over the coming year and into election year. The Tories only real hope is to scaremonger and abuse, and run the nasty stuff they find second nature, but maybe the public have had enough of that?

  2. Te Reo Putake 2

    Great post, Anthony! I really wish I had the technical expertise to put up graphs like that (drove myself nuts last night trying to convert the Morgan Poll to seats, bah!).

    Both the Greens and Labour need to improve if we are to avoid the nightmare of dealing with Winnie. Not that he wasn’t a loyal part of the last Clark government, but he’s just not worth the risk and adds bugger all good policy to the mix anyway.

    The problem for the Greens is that their branding and policy base will always limit their potential. The public perception is that they are focussed on environmental concerns, whcih delivers solid double digit support, but stops it getting higher than the teens. The LP has broader support and therefore a bigger base to build on. It’s far easier for Labour to pick up 3% (as they did in the RM) than it is for the Greens.

    As always, I favour the bloc approach. Let the public know that a vote for either is a vote for a progressive government. The leadership of both parties need to be seen together more often (as they did at the EPMU’s manufacturing enquiry launch). But there will still need to be maturity from Green voters in the electorates. We need electorate MP’s who give a toss about their constituents and stopping Labour winning those seats does nobody any favours.

    • BLiP 2.1

      .

      But there will still need to be maturity from Green voters in the electorates.

      Yeah, Green voters need to grow up. Twat.

      • Te Reo Putake 2.1.1

        I wasn’t calling them twats, BLiP, that’s you. I appreciate that as a list only party, the Greens probably don’t give a flying one about the electorates, or even understand the value of having a good local MP, but for constituents its vital. Even in opposition, Labour electorate MP’s battle for the locals in a way will never happen with a Tory MP. Can you imagine the pointlessness of a beneficiary taking a problem to their National Party electorate MP?

        And 5 electorate seats are held by National’s support parties. Now you may personally be happy with Dunne, Banks and the the 3 useless MP MP’s but I’m not that big a twat. I want them gone.

        • felixviper 2.1.1.1

          Bottom line is if Labour want Green voters to cough up their electorate votes for Labour candidates then they’ll just have to put up candidates that appeal to those voters.

          • kiwicommie 2.1.1.1.1

            The best way forward is to give electorate votes to whatever progressive candidate is most likely to win the electorate (no point voting green when it would take away from a Labour candidate beating the National one). Mana needs to win an electorate, Labour needs to win back Christchurch; and the Greens have to expand on their party vote to bring a strong majority come 2014.

            • QoT 2.1.1.1.1.1

              As a former inhabitant of Hutt South, I have fairly strong feelings about this line of argument.

              Voters are not stupid. They know which box they’re ticking. It can be frustrating – see all those leftwing Epsom voters who chose not to demean themselves just to get ACT out of politics – but they knew what they were doing and they had their reasons and insisting that everyone vote purely strategically “for the good of the left” is just insulting.

              • Te Reo Putake

                Well it depends on whether you want to have a Tory as your MP, I guess. If you’re OK with it and you don’t mind inflicting one on your neighbours, be my guest. But I think its beholden on anyone who claims to “of the left” to understand the ramifications. Ramifications like the current Government, which would be in a bit of a pickle without Peter Dunne, for example. This stuff does matter and I would hate to be repeating this message 2 years into John Key’s next term.

                I applaud the many Green candidates who I have heard actively canvassing for the Party vote while suggesting that voters use their electorate vote tactically. I’m equally chuffed with Labour voters in Coromandel who took the hint from their local party and elected Jeannette Fitzsimons. That’s the kind of stuff that builds coalitions and wins elections.

                Edit: Hutt South? Are you saying you would do it as a protest, knowing it wouldn;t affect the outcome? That’s a little different from the scenario I’m talking about.

                • karol

                  If I was living in Waitakere electorate, I would vote Sepuloni if she was standing. But if it was John Charter School-front bum Tamihere – I’d vote for the Green or Mana candidate. It wouldn’t make any difference to the overall Labour MPs and I would rather keep Tamihere out.

                  The electorate vote is for a candidate, and most of the time, it doesn’t impact on the party numbers in the House. There’s a few exceptions such as Epsom and Oharu (Dunne’s electorate) where I would think more strategically. But someone like Tamihere is not good for the left, IMO. And I’d want to send a message to the Labour selectors that he is not acceptable to me, and that it’s a slap in the face for women and GLBT people to be considering having him standing again..

                  I’m now also having second thoughts about voting for Twyford, whose electorate I’m currently in. He was great on supercity stuff, but I’m not impressed by his Team Shearer stuff or his (alleged) support for Tamihere. That one’s a hard call for me.

                  However, I’m hoping to be back in new Lynn for by the time of the next election, and will be more than happy to vote Cunliffe.

                  • Te Reo Putake

                    Hard to disagree, Karol. JT is not needed either as an electorate MP or on the list. Not needed in Labour at all, come to think of it.

                • QoT

                  Edit: Hutt South? Are you saying you would do it as a protest, knowing it wouldn;t affect the outcome? That’s a little different from the scenario I’m talking about.

                  I was responding to kiwicommie’s suggestion.

        • BLiP 2.1.1.2

          .

          I like having the choice to vote Green/Green. Its politically satisfying. How very Labour to want to remove that option from me – and on the arrogance-driven basis that a Green MP couldn’t possibly represent their constituents with the same vigour and skill as a Labour one. Paternalistic dribble. Its become something of an anathema this century yet infects the Labour Party, manifesting both in its internal and cross-party dialogue.

          HANDY HINT: maturity is no requisite for strategic voting.

          • Te Reo Putake 2.1.1.2.1

            It’s not arrogance driven to say a Green Mp couldn’t represent an electorate, its based on the simple fact that no Green candidate has ever got within cooee of winning a seat that way. You are wasting your second vote, BliP, but others will vote strategically, so I’m going to keep raising the issue.

            • Macro 2.1.1.2.1.1

              Jeanette Fitzsimmons springs to mind?

            • BLiP 2.1.1.2.1.2

              .

              Thanks. I’ll let Jeanette know.

            • felixviper 2.1.1.2.1.3

              “based on the simple fact that no Green candidate has ever got within cooee of winning a seat that way.”

              Fitzsimons.

              But even if you weren’t bullshitting about that, how far do you intend to take your “hasn’t done = could never do” principle?

              For example, if someone has never got within cooee of being PM, does that mean they never will be?

            • Te Reo Putake 2.1.1.2.1.4

              Yep, and to make my mistake worse, I voted for her in Coromandel. But I had forgetten that she stood as a Green for the first time in that election. The previous election she stood as an Alliance candidate and missed out.

              Of course, I wasn’t the only Labour voter to switch to Jeannette. The LP on the ground in TGA and Coromandel made a determined effort to help her, despite some public antipathy from the LP leadership. The same in reverse has been a feature of many Green electorate candidates in recent elections, making it clear they wanted the party vote, not the electorate vote. Which is very sensible.

              • Colonial Viper

                Of course, I wasn’t the only Labour voter to switch to Jeannette. The LP on the ground in TGA and Coromandel made a determined effort to help her, despite some public antipathy from the LP leadership.

                So you participated in a dangerous historical precedent.

    • Bearded Git 2.2

      Greens are actually polling well above their election result both in poll of polls and in Roy Morgan

      • r0b 2.2.1

        Yes – I had just made a minor change to the phrasing of the post…

        My main point was that for all we here often rip in to Labour for their polling, on the evidence they’re doing better than The Greens.

        • lprent 2.2.1.1

          Timescale r0b. If you pick the timescales correctly, you can damn near prove anything.

          From memory the latest Roy Morgan has Labour back at a level where they lost the treasury benches in 2008 – 4 years ago. The Greens and NZ First have risen. National has declined and their coalition parties have become increasingly irrelevant supplicants…

          The time I start praising Labour’s caucus is when they start consistently getting polls above the 2008 result. Because since 2008 they have essentially bounced around at just at or above their base support level, unable to encourage people to either vote or to vote for them.

    • karol 2.3

      TRP@ 8.27am. It just looksd like you expect the Greens to be subservient to Labour, with their role only being to help push a weak LP over the line at the election

      The Greens are a whole package of which environmental issues are integrated with a fair, co-operative, democratic, egalitarian and caring society. They show it every week in the issues they take to the public. Your attempt to reduce them to some one-dimensional, neoliberal brand, in order to elevate Labour, is way too transparent.

      • Dr Terry 2.3.1

        Very good post karol. Sometimes I wonder if the country really (at bottom) prefers not to have quality government.

      • Te Reo Putake 2.3.2

        Point missed, Karol. I was talking about public perception and their branding, not my personal view of their policies (which align exactly with yours). The difficulty is breaking out of being seen as ‘green’ only. I know they’re more than that, and so do most people here, but we’re not the ones that need convincing.

        • Pascal's bookie 2.3.2.1

          Got polling data to support that?

          Anecdotally I’m always hearing that the Greens need to stick to their environmental kniitting and stop banging on about all the other stuff because blah blah.

      • Mary 2.3.3

        I can’t imagine the Greens or Mana supporting attempts by Labour to carry on with its the assault on social security, but they don’t need their support on that front because they could get that from National. The real issue would be how far would Labour think it could go without pissing their coalition partners off too much.

      • Fortran 2.3.4

        Karol

        You are quite right – If Labour expect the Greens to be subserviant then think again.
        They are the Party with the forward and progressive thinking while Labour are still backward looking, bereft of ideas.

        Labour cannot govern in any way without the Greens – so Labour should loosen up and get alongside the Greens and not blindly oppose their thinking.

        Winston may still be a worry though, as he has said he will not have anything to do with the Greens.

    • lprent 2.4

      He cheated :twisted:, both sets of graphs are links to other sites…

      Why build when you can link to demonstrate your text. Incidentally, this is almost the programmers credo. Why write your own code when you can instead link to shared objects like boost or Qt or other plethora of components that are available after a drop into google.

    • Jackal 2.5

      Te Reo Putake

      The problem for the Greens is that their branding and policy base will always limit their potential. The public perception is that they are focussed on environmental concerns, whcih delivers solid double digit support, but stops it getting higher than the teens.

      Your political commentary is a bit embarrassing to say the least Te Reo Putake.

      Firstly, the Greens are focused on environmental concerns because they’re important… You’re obviously not aware of a poll conducted before the last election that found most Kiwis think the environment is the main issue.

      Secondly, the Greens have a diverse set of skills that are not simply limited to environmental issues. For instance, because of his hard work to inform the public on financial matters, many Kiwis now support Russel Normans proposal for quantitative easing.

      Couple these facts with the reality that the Greens work extensively on social and human rights issues as well, and your commentary becomes entirely defunct!

      • Dr Terry 2.5.1

        Jackal – thanks, an excellent post!

      • Te Reo Putake 2.5.2

        See my reply to Karol, I was talking about how voters see the Greens, not how I see them.

        ps I agree with Dr Terry, it’s an excellent comment. Where did you steal it from?

    • QoT 2.6

      But there will still need to be maturity from Green voters in the electorates.

      Oh look, I was right again.

  3. ad 3

    Does anyone want to now confess that choosing Shearer was right?

    Or at least, that waiting for the current Government to not control its own gangrene is the right strategy?

    I would look forward to being proven wrong, if Labour won the next election.

    The Greens need a new issue to get popular traction on – at least they’re not like the Maori Party who have long since run out of steam, based on one march. They don’t have GE anymore.

    I agree with the bloc approach – there is little harm (at least to Labour) of stating now what a coalitionagreement should look like, so people can start getting their calculators out and understand the tax and benefit implications on their income, and any change in career prospects to staying here,

    • karol 3.1

      Does anyone want to now confess that choosing Shearer was right?

      I am not much of a poll watcher, but have been, and continue to be opposed to Shearer as leader. My opposition has nothing to do with polls, but with his right wing perspective. I am concerned about the long term damage to NZ under a right wing, Nat-lite, Labour-led government – it will be especially damaging for low income Kiwis.

      • Te Reo Putake 3.1.1

        Happily, that’s not going to happen, Karol. It will be a progressive Labour led coalition with significant input from the Greens. Labour’s policy has not been determined yet, and it has been forgotten in the leadership sideshow that the real democratisation in Labour is the ability for members to determine policy. That process starts in a few weeks and is going to be terrific fun!

        • Bill 3.1.1.1

          I’ve asked this question on a number of occasions and never recieved a response. But I’ll try again. Has the mechanism for members determining policy been locked in? What exactly are the workings of the system and, if it can’t be explained here, where can an explanation be found?

          That aside. Even with policy being determined by members (if that actually is the real world scenario), caucus and leaders would (surely) still determine the timing for the implementation of any policy. And the leeway that exists for a caucus to merely pay lip service to a policy or to policies while defering their implementation is what makes the make-up or perspective of caucus rather crucial.

          • Te Reo Putake 3.1.1.1.1

            There’s a round of meetings in a few weeks to explain the process and also the new hub structures, Bill. My understanding is that caucus will be bound by the policy the membership determines, but, as you say, timings etc. will be a factor too.

            • Bill 3.1.1.1.1.1

              Thanks TRP.

              So am I right in saying that only the principle has been adopted thus far? And that members have had no detemining say in the actual procedure or system that will underpin the basic principle? Meaning that, depending on who actually determined or determines the process, the principle can be undermined or weakened (monkey wrenched) by dint of the actual processes insofar as those processes may well be less democratic than some had initially envisaged or desired?

              • Te Reo Putake

                I’ll try and find out Bill, but it might take a few hours … busy day today.

                • Bill

                  That would be appreciated. A bit busy myself today. So, I’ll check back in towards this evening and see if you’ve been able to find anything out.

                  • Bunji

                    A draft policy platform (determined by mainly-member policy committees; 1-2 MPs on each) was passed at the Annual Conference. A more detailed one will be passed (hopefully) at this year’s.

                    The Platform is not meant to be absolutely prescriptive, but rather establish general principles (and values) that the MPs can then work details out from.

                    If MPs wanted to go against the policy platform (eg if they wanted to sell a public asset, or not implement Labour’s industry standard wages policy) they need to get a 2/3rds majority approval from the (substantial majority member) Policy Council. It’s expected some things (not asset sales…) may need to be approved for coalition agreements etc.

                    All members can contribute their 2c to Policy – through remits at conferences and through giving their wisdom to the policy council / committees.

            • bad12 3.1.1.1.1.2

              This? Labour caucus ‘bound’ by the policy put forward by the members, lolz that reads wonderfully on paper but as reality, this i gotta see…

        • bad12 3.1.1.2

          Should provoke some good debates here Te Reo, and if the ‘flagship’ housing policy release is anything to go by will end up highlighting Labour as the party of,for and by the middle class of New Zealand…

        • Fortran 3.1.1.3

          Since when has the determination of Policy been “terrific fun”.

          Get real – this not fun but probably the most serious consideration since the last election.

          “terrific fun” does not win Elections.

      • kiwi_promtheus 3.1.2

        [RL: You picked up a weeks ban from Lynn two days ago.]

        • felixviper 3.1.2.1

          Ever noticed how nothing you write about karol bears any relation to anything karol actually writes?

    • The Al1en 3.2

      “Does anyone want to now confess that choosing Shearer was right?”

      If they did, they’d be wrong.
      As was pointed out yesterday, Shearer is or close to being as popular as Goff’s Labour ever were, and we know how that worked out for us in the long con.

      I’m happy the government is losing popularity, yet there’s no wave of popular support for the opposition I can see, nor is there one in sight on the immediate horizon.
      Again, I’m content for a left minded government should the numbers actuate in an election, but I’d very much like it to be one that championed for the people and fought for the right to govern, rather than be still born from the votes national couldn’t hold.

      Team Shearer isn’t the A-team of the left, that’s for sure.

      • Kevin Welsh 3.2.1

        Yeah, I can hardly wait to see him in a televised debate…

        • David H 3.2.1.1

          You are joking. Key will have him for breakfast. But then it will be too late to get rid of him. and Key will have 3 more years to pillage NZ’s assets for his rich mates.

        • Mary 3.2.1.2

          The best thing Shearer can do in 2014 is get himself admitted to hospital six weeks before the election then be well again just in time to celebrate victory at the election night party.

          • xtasy 3.2.1.2.1

            Marvellous idea, Mary, I fear you may have just given the ABC team the best plan B option to gain some votes in 2014. “Shearer seriously ill and hospitalised” or “Shearer needing urgent hospital treatment after accident”, that may create a wave of “sympathy” for the suffering candidate, which may to some degree materialise in emotionally motivated “sympathy votes”.

            If they can pull that off with a bit of initiated media theatre, Labour will surely get over 30 per cent, maybe over 35 per cent.

            • Mary 3.2.1.2.1.1

              Yes xtasy, and to keep him out of the public eye, as well, which if he was around he’d inevitably increase the support for every other party including National therefore securing another three years of right-wing totalitarianism. If Shearer was serious about ousting Key and his mates and he’s not prepared to stand down as leader then the next best thing must surely be making himself scarce leading up to the election.

    • Enough is Enough 3.3

      Shearer is the wrong choice. If Labour win the next three elctions with Shearer as their leader it will be an even worse choice.

      He has no intention of introducing the reforms this country needs to reverse the effect of 30 years of neo liberalism.

      • Colonial Viper 3.3.1

        Indeed. The job of Labour Leader is not done with an increase in polling numbers. It is done by advancing the values of equity, labour protections and social security for all in the community.

        • Murray Olsen 3.3.1.1

          I’d be happy to hear him denouncing the Crown Law Office appealing the paltry $17,000 awarded to Gordon Holmes in Dunedin and the needless hassle WINZ is putting the guy through. I think I’m more likely to hear of a project to focus CCTV cameras on beneficiaries roofs before Shearer ever stands up for any of them. Everything Muldoon (incorrectly) said about Rowling seems to apply to Shearer. Three years of Shearer would end up with most of the country worse off than at the beginning of his term.

      • Tony 3.3.2

        Reforms such as…?

        • Enough is Enough 3.3.2.1

          Lets start with reversing Ruth’s benefit cuts.

          A simple initiative that no government in over 20 years has had the guts to touch

          • Mary 3.3.2.1.1

            Labour promised to reverse the benefit cuts back when they happened but then balked almost straight away. The same thing happened when the unemployment benefit for students in the holidays was cut back, they said they’d reverse it then balked. Then in 1995 Labour jumped up and down about National trying to axe the discretionary nature of supplementary assistance like special needs grants, advances and the special benefit, but then turned around and abolished the special benefit under urgency, no warning, no debate. Then after complaining loudly about National in 1996 introducing the idea of restricting tax cuts to those who were not “significantly dependent on the state”, they turned around and continued the horrendous tradition with WFF. There has not been one single positive undertaking Labour has given when in opposition regarding social security that they haven’t flip-flopped on.

            • Mary 3.3.2.1.1.1

              History suggests their promise to extend WFF to beneficiary families won’t be honoured, either.

  4. ScottGN 4

    Am I right in saying that Labour on 34.5% is the highest they’ve been in Roy Morgan since the election? Also I note that Labour + Greens is at 48% in this poll. Isn’t that the platform for majority government once the sub 5% party votes are discarded? Also it’s interesting to see that Gary Morgan identifies Labour’s Kiwibuild policy and the Govt’s dopey asylum seeker arrangements with Australia as 2 issues driving these numbers. I would have thought the ongoing train-wreck of Novopay was having an effect too.
    Worth pointing out as well that the Roy Morgan is pretty volatile from poll to poll though there is a good trend here.

    • bad12 4.1

      Yep, my reading of that poll is Labour+Green+Mana makes a simple majority, the Maori Party losing any of it’s seats to either Labour or Mana increases that majority,

      i pointed out after the last Roy Morgan that i thought Roy was reading the figures from the point of view of National from the high side of the margin of error and Labour from the low side of that margin off error,

      Reading the poll the other way round would give us the figures from the latest Roy Morgan, nothing to have a party over but might provoke yet another fit of fainting from Slippery the Prime Minister,

      i would expect another bump for Labour in the next Roy Morgan of +1% as voters react to NZFirsts defense of Richard Prosser as an MP in that party…

      • Bunji 4.1.1

        With NZ First below the threshold, Labour + Greens would be a simple majority by my calculations (62/122 seats if Maori don’t lose any).

        The government’s handling of the asylum seekers would only have affected the very tail end of the poll, which made Gary’s comments a bit weird. Novopay is a much more likely explanation.

        • Anne 4.1.1.1

          The government’s handling of the asylum seekers would only have affected the very tail end of the poll, which made Gary’s comments a bit weird.

          In my view that was a silly comment. It takes a week at the least before the public reacts to deals like that. Also, I’m not sure the Prosser fallout will necessarily go to Labour. If it goes to the Nats., then the effect of one will be negated by the other.

          • bad12 4.1.1.1.1

            Yes you might be right, but as NZFirst is essentially a party made up of disgruntled Labour/National voters i would suspect that the right wing of NZFirst are inclined toward the views expressed by Prosser and would be the smallest cohort to walk over those comments,

            So i will stick with my +1 to Labour in the next Roy Morgan brought about by the Prosser incident,(you can poke me with the stick if the next Roy Morgan proves me incorrect)…

          • Anne 4.1.1.1.2

            Oops Bunji:
            Looking through my recent comments I came across this one. I hope you didn’t think I was referring to your comment being silly. I was actually agreeing with you. Morgan’s comment was a bit weird.

            Badly worded on my part. :(

  5. quartz 5

    It’s the Morgan. It throws out a rogue every for or five polls. And for the record, I want Labour to win, but not if it means a cabinet full of old right-wing throwbacks.

  6. fatty 6

    But the polls need to be put in context:
    – In 2012 National gave Labour opportunity after opportunity and they slashed away at education, the environment, employment and the vulnerable…will this happen in 2013?
    – National gave Shearer a free-ride so that his leadership would be cemented…will National attack his numerous weaknesses this year?
    – National will have policies for the election up their sleeve to unveil at the latter end of this year and also next.
    – More young people will continue to leave NZ this year, that will cost the Greens and the left block.

    Taking last year into account, I don’t see many positives in the polls. 2012 was a massive opportunity, which was not capitalised on by Labour, I’d be surprised if Key and his thugs offer up so many chances again.

    • Enough is Enough 6.1

      That is my concern as well Fatty.

      A political strategist for the Left would dream of years like 2012. National fucked up everything they touched and the effects of their policies became easily identifiable.

      What more could Labour have hoped for in 2012?

      Yet these polls show they fucked up the opportunity and my concern is the opportunity may now have gone. Shearer is an easy target for the right now. When ever he moans, they will simply laugh at his mumbling waffle.

      Norman now has to step into the vacuum left by his political big brother and demonstrate what a government for the workers of this country will look like post 2014.

      • karol 6.1.1

        Norman now has to step into the vacuum left by his political big brother and demonstrate what a government for the workers of this country will look like post 2014.

        When did Norman become the sole leader of the Greens?

        • Enough is Enough 6.1.1.1

          He didn’t!

          Neither did he become the sole leader for the Left.

          But he is in my view (possibly with Cunliffe) the strongest and most effective advocate for the Left. He has the ability to articulate his party’s economic policies like no other and has formed a very good relationship with the MSM.

          • karol 6.1.1.1.1

            Ah, yes. it’s all about the economy, and nothing to do with the things Turei consistently and effectively highlights to do with income inequalities, a living wage, etc.

            Focusing on the economy as THE issue, separated from the impact on people’s lives, is using the neoliberal play-book.

            PS: It’s also traditionally and still, a pretty male-dominated focus.

            • Enough is Enough 6.1.1.1.1.1

              You seem to be getting a little bit upset over nothing.

              I wasn’t attacking Turei, I just do not think she is as effective as Norman. I think she is growing into the job but has a long way to go to reach the heights of Jeanette who somehow managed to reach out across the political spectrum.

              As to the economy and income inequalities….umm they go hand in hand. How can you see them as two different things? We need to restructure the economy so that CEO’s can’t take home millions of dolaars in wages at the expense of the productive workers. Bridging that gap is the key in my view.

              ps…what does gender have to do with this?

              • karol

                I don’t see the economy and low income life as two different things, but the MSM and other neoliberals do.

                Norman has just been getting a lot of MSM attention over the last year. Turei is extremely effective in what she says and argues and I think she’s better than Norman.

                what does gender have to do with this?

                Somehow it does. Guys in politics love to show they have a grip on money and the economy. There’s a traditional gender division, in which guys do the economy (which is given high status – figures, stats and all that stuff), and women do the people, human connection stuff. There’s plenty been written on it.

                e.g. here on how gender differences play in US political candidates, with women associated more with women being associated with stereotypical “feminine” issues, and men having an advantage when military and national security.

                Again a US eg, with a focus on military, but it also includes the economy in the “masculine” tendency to instrumentalism over “feminine” “compassion (focusing on issues like poverty and the aged).

                In the past I have seen other articles that particularly link the economy with male politicians. Like this article in Politics & Gender 2008. I need to use my library log in to access the full article. But, the article text focuses on election campaigns in the US, Aussie and Canada, and says:

                The news media tended to emphasize women’s lack of viability, focusing more attention on the “horse race” when covering women candidates.

                In addition, coverage of the men and women candidates corresponded with common gender stereotypes. For example, the news media tended to focus on “expressive strengths” such as honesty and compassion when describing women candidates, whereas “instrumental” traits, such as experience and leadership, were more commonly used to describe male candidates. Finally, coverage of policy matters corresponded to men’s and women’s stereotypical strengths. The issues of foreign policy, defense, trade, and the economy were more likely to be discussed for male candidates, whereas women candidates, in their campaign coverage, were more frequently linked to issues of poverty, education, and health care (Carroll and Schreiber 1997; Kahn 1996).

                • Enough is Enough

                  “Norman has just been getting a lot of MSM attention ”

                  Which is precisley why I think he is the individual to step into the vaccum left by Mumblefuck. There is not much use in having a great message if noone listening to you.

                  Full circle.

                  • karol

                    Oh, right. So women MPs should just give up on any ambitions to be leader of a party, because the MSM tends to pick up on and portray men as having the leadership skills.

                    • QoT

                      Jeez, karol, trying to overturn dominant narratives never got any oppressed group anywhere. Back to the kitchen with both of us, we don’t need silly voting rights.

                    • Enough is Enough

                      ummm no

                    • Enough is Enough

                      You have a very strange thought pattern.

                      EIE thinks in her opinion that a man is the most effective communicator for the Left.

                      This must mean by default, without any logical reason, that EIE thinks that a female leader from the the left is ineffective and should really just give up on her ambitions.

                      Or maybe EIE just judges our leaders on what they say, when they say it, how effectivley they say it, who is listening, and who is best to sock it to the tories, without giving a shit what gender they are.

                    • karol

                      You have a very strange thought pattern.

                      EIE thinks in her opinion that a man is the most effective communicator for the Left.

                      Sigh. Really you just don’t get it, EIE. You just don’t understand the role of the MSM and traditional narratives in skewing perceptions.

                      PS: I’m confused about the EIE comment @ 12.03pm, in which EIE seems to be talking to hirself and about hirself in the 3rd person.

                      To me Turei has always been a smarter and better communicator than Norman. She has given some great speeches, is down to earth and integrates her everyday experiences and her working class background with her political, legal and academic knowledge. Norman always sounds like a middle class academic and business-associated type.

              • David H

                To be honest here The Greens have the strongest women in parliament in Turei she is very good on the income inequalities, and Julie Anne Genter is brilliant on the Nats bullshit roading policy, and also on public transport, especially light rail in Ak. Which in my opinion is a complete dogs breakfast in the roading layout, and signposting.

            • GregJ 6.1.1.1.1.2

              If there was one leader’s speech given this year that resonated most deeply with me and showed passion, conviction and substance it was the one that contained the following:

              “Eliminating poverty is not a matter for charity, it is an act of justice.”

              That leader was Metiria Turei at Ratana. Time it was given much more profile and she much more credit for articulating not just opposition to the current government but a clear set of principles, values and actions that show a different path to them.

          • Fortran 6.1.1.1.2

            +100

      • bad12 6.1.2

        What National tho didn’t f**k up for the core of it’s voters is the part of ‘tax switch’ which every week puts 100’s of dollars into the pockets of those voters…

        • David H 6.1.2.1

          But sooner or later the money runs out, then what??? The last time the Nats wasted all the money Lange was there to pick up the pieces. This time???

          • bad12 6.1.2.1.1

            Pretty easy for any Government to take that money back again off of the top 44% of earners with interest as taxation, which should come with government warning that next time National at the behest of it’s voters f**ks up the economy for the personal gain of its supporters the payback will be doubled,

            Governments have the ability to print money, National were advised in early 2009 by the IMF to do just that, i realize that Labour just blinking in the first sunlight of what could be a non-neo-liberal world are too scared to entertain the idea,

            my advice to Labour would be to become aquainted with the real world of just who is printing the stuff and why befor they go into another orgy of borrowing and drop the value of the Kiwi$ by regulation which is a blunt primitive means of accomplishing that little task that will provide a little gain for a lot of pain,

            More reward would be gained across the whole economy if Labour printed the money needed to dilute the NZ$ so as to lower that dollars value,

            Such monies could then be put to use building low cost housing and creating employment doing so,

            Labour could then become the mortgage holder to those the houses were sold and such housing could easily be sold to the tenants based upon 25% of household income thus freeing up everyone’s income that could then be spent into the economy…

  7. Colonial Viper 7

    Yes, Labour can gain power with just 30%-33% of the vote, if it relies on New Zealand First AND the Maori Party AND Hone (and maybe The Hair).

    To do win without NZF (and preclude the chances that a NZF swing to the NATs might occur) Labour will need no less than 35% to 37% of the vote on e-day, with the Greens turning in another good performance.

    • Te Reo Putake 7.1

      Exactly right, CV. The key is the combined vote of 45-48% and realistically, it’s Labour that needs to lift its vote to acheive that. I’m really confident that the Greens will stay in the low teens and not drop into single figures, so Labour at 35% is the minimum needed.

    • bad12 7.2

      Discount your NZFirst scenario, i cannot see that party featuring in the next Parliament,

      On the polled figures Labour+Green+Mana gives a simple majority, i would bet money on the Maori Party losing at least 2 of its electorate seats,(1 to Labour and 1 to Mana) so i cannot see National having the numbers to be able to form a Government after 2014,

      Dunne should the people of Ohariu choose to continue His sinecure will become a simpering glove puppet for anyone that says Minister of Revenue to Him…

      • Colonial Viper 7.2.1

        Will Labour accept Hone as a coalition partner though? Or is he too left wing and ‘radical’ for them.

    • Pete 7.3

      What needs to happen now is that Labour and the Greens must establish the narrative that they are a stable government-in-waiting, ready to act on day one. They don’t have to be in lockstep, but the twitter bs we saw the other day should be avoided in the future.

  8. Polls move around from one to the next, Labour have been sitting about this level in the past
    12months or so,then it dipped again, however, having labour and the greens.perhaps mana,the
    left are looking to have enough support to get rid of this,terrible,terrible nact govt.
    God help us over the next 2yrs.
    There is also another factor here and that is Labour should be trouncing the Nacts,
    surely people out there must feel the ‘boot’ of the nacts,or have they just accepted their fate’
    and believe there is nothing that can be done to stop the nacts destructive path,it is a
    shame that the people obviously feel politicaly powerless.
    I’ts like Key arrived in NZ to install a dictatorship style of politics and governence, once elected ,due to this power, he has set aside everything legal and decent and has bought despair
    and anguish on those who desire and desperatley need a fair go.
    It may be melodramatic of me but those whose lives have been enhanced by the nacts must feel admiration and a connection, hence the polls, but to those whose lives have been affected
    by nacts oppressive decisions, must surely feel their quality of life is seriously stunted.
    800.000 + felt they had no voice in the last election and didn’t vote and from what i can see
    the lack of any ‘we are standing up for you’ from labour,coupled with the lack of any geunine policies that recognise the ongoing struggles that so many are having, will once again see
    800.000 + votes being lost in 2014.

  9. Ed 9

    The Stuff poll is showing interesting differences from the ‘more accurate’ polls – it looks as though more Labour / Green readers are voting than was the case a while ago.

    • karol 9.1

      And more Greens than Labour: Greens are marginally ahead of Labour right now. Greens= 26.1%: Labour = 25.1%

      • quartz 9.1.1

        I read that stuff poll as the Greens having a bigger slice of the middle-class, educated, professional demographic that dominates the online space. Which implies Labour makes up the difference with lower-socioeconomic votes. The exact people they’re at risk of turning into enrolled non voters with their blairite pitch to the center.

      • kiwicommie 9.1.2

        The problem with the Greens is that they haven’t been able to field good electorate candidates, that is why it is easier to vote Labour in electorates (better Labour than National) and give the party vote to the Greens. But depends on the electorate. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wellington Central or parts of Christchurch get a Green MP from 2014 onwards, though getting one in Auckland would take longer.

        • BLiP 9.1.2.1

          .

          Oh, I dunno. Auckland Central is up for grabs. Go, Denise.

          • George D 9.1.2.1.1

            Jacinta Adern is pretty formidable. But she will have to be, to beat a very solidly performing Kaye with a Green spoiler in the former of Roche.

            I think Rongotai is the Green Party’s best bet, but that neither Norman nor the electorate organisation want it enough to take it on properly when King resigns. I’d like to see Holly Walker have a go at unseating Mallard!

            • David H 9.1.2.1.1.1

              The thing is this, that Labour and the Greens will have to come to agreements over the more marginal seats, where it is clear that if they both go after the seat vote then the Nats will waltz in because they have effectively split the vote. And Labour will have to be fair about it too and not be greedy and try to steal all the seats.

        • bad12 9.1.2.2

          Things will start to tighten up in Annette King’s Rongotai electorate in November 2014 as well…

        • Pete 9.1.2.3

          Celia Wade-Brown won the Wellington mayoralty. I know, she’s not an MP, but people do vote for Green candidates to directly represent them. It would have to be an urban centre to vote a Green in, rural is pretty much National. I think Christchurch might be a good bet if a candidate campaigns heavily on public transport and sustainable infrastructure in the rebuild. Also the Greens’ policy of a nationwide levy to pay for the rebuild. And there’s also the shenanigans with Environment Canterbury.

          It’s doubtful a Green would do well down here in Dunedin. Dunedin North, the youngest urban area in the country might be thought of as prime Green territory, but David Clark is looked on as being very promising and is doing really well. I think we’d see a high party vote for the Greens, though. The demographics of Dunedin South – retirees, working class, white, would count against a Green displacing Clare Curran.

          • McFlock 9.1.2.3.1

            Dunedin always makes me giggle a bit – local bodies, usually pretty conservative; national elections, pretty liberal/left.

            There are a few core NACT areas as well, and the young nats have a solid campus following (but then so do young labour – and some leftist ones at that).

  10. Yes this is good for the left let Hope Shearer gets the right team in his reshuffle Bring forward up comes like Megan Woods David Clark Andrew Little Moana Mackey Kris Foafoi Louisa Wall and Rino from Te Tai Tonga. Go Mr Shearer and Put Damien O Connor Clare Curran and Chris Hipkins on the frontbench awesome.

  11. michael 11

    Leave Curran off the front bench until she restores Labour’s majority in Dunedin South. If the people in her own electorate can’t stand her, the rest of the country won’t either. I’d keep Tirikatene well under wraps too, until he proves he can represent his constituents.

  12. Anne 12

    I’d keep Tirikatene well under wraps too, until he proves he can represent his constituents.

    Add to that Megan Woods and David Clark – and any other first term MP.

    While their potential may be considerd high, this is their first term in parliament. We have seen what happens when new or newish MPs are promoted without doing sufficient time on the back benches. Frustrating though it might be to each of them personally, there is one hell of a lot to learn about parliament and without sufficient experience they are more likely to shoot themselves in the foot and perhaps damage their party in the process.

    The only possible exception would be Andrew Little. He may be a first termer, but he has oodles of experience in a related field and he is a former party president.

    • Olwyn 12.1

      I agree Anne. Authority must be earned, while rank can be granted. People who lack authority but hold rank are put in an awkward position: they are at once forced, by their lack of authority, to be yes-people, and forced by their rank to wear the result. It is the sort of thing that does not make for a robust, confident party. I also agree with you about Andrew Little – he has earned the relevant sort of authority outside of caucus.

    • David H 13.1

      Oh god Slippery as sexiest man, I near vomited all over my laptop.

    • xtasy 13.2

      The mighty mainstream media ensures the voting public is well informed, and guides prospective voters by reporting on stuff that really matters – for making appropriate decisions to ensure the well-being of the whole of New Zealand for future generations. Yeah Right.

  13. chris73 14

    Not wanting to be disparaging to Annette King but third? Surely theres some Green list MP that no ones ever heard of place higher…

    I am surprised that Cunliffe didn’t place higher, I mean that rugged, bearded look was pretty smoking…

  14. Skinny 15

    Even before the last election statistics were against National getting a third term of governing. The next election is Labour’s ( Greens should they choose an arrangement with Labour) to lose. The deep pockets of Keys mates (the rich) will fund slick PR spin merchants to tighten the contest. Collectively if we can get the disengaged to turnout to vote it should be a landslide victory. This year will see harsh policies come out, with vote bribing policies coming out toward election time. Interesting times ahead, but still the polls are a backstraightner :)

    • ak 15.1

      ….while Mr Key was considered to be the most likely to be spotted with a sex toy in his back pocket.

      Hands-off government. The emperor’s new clothes visible at last. Bye, Slipper.

    • Green machine UpandComer 15.2

      Labour will win the election primarily and solely based on ignorance. People will of course vote for free houses, free money, and free everything, but they won’t get it in the end. Ack, Labour ruins the economy, National has to make politically painful decision to fix it, the economy recovers somewhat, Labour spends all the money on freebies, and the circle of life continues.

      • xtasy 15.2.1

        GmUAC:
        What utter nonsensical drivel you are presenting here. I am sorry, but all you throw around is superficial prejudice without any fact based info or arguments.

        “Free houses, free money, free everything”, get a gasp of fresh air and drink some clean, “free” water, to clear your mind, and you may even see the world with clearer eyes after a good nap.

        National has won the last two elections based on ignorance, but you seem to fail to grasp that.

        They have certainly NOT fixed anything, as stats for people leaving for AUS, for unemployment, a growing gap between poor and the rest show.

        By the way, this is not Kiwiblog, if you have not noticed in this early hour! Wakey, wakey perhaps.

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    Labour | 18-09
  • Polling Booths asked to treat Maori voters with respect
    “Polling booths without Maori roll voting papers, Maori people not being offered assistance to vote, people getting sent from Whangarei to Wellsford to vote, Maori people getting turned away from voting because they didn’t have their ‘easy vote’ card, Maori...
    Mana | 17-09
  • Aussie Liberals embroiled in Key campaign
    John Key needs to explain why Australia’s Liberal Party is interfering in New Zealand domestic politics and is encouraging Kiwi voters across the ditch to vote for National just days out from the election, Labour’s campaign spokesperson Annette King says....
    Labour | 17-09
  • The MANA Plan for Beneficiaries and Income in Waiariki
    Median Personal Income for Waiariki is $21,700. Over 13,000 Maori who live in Waiariki rely upon a form of government benefit including the Unemployment Benefit, Sickness Benefit, Domestic Purpose Benefit and the Invalids Benefit. “If you’re lucky enough to have...
    Mana | 16-09
  • Māori development crucial to New Zealand’s future
    Labour recognises the concern of Māori about child poverty and the rising costs of living, and in Government will make a real difference to the wellbeing of whānau and iwi, Labour’s Māori Affairs spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says. “As our Māori...
    Labour | 16-09
  • MAORI PARTY – DON’T COMPLAIN … WALK
    “If the Maori Party are serious about stopping government spying on NZ citizens then they should tell the Prime Minister to either stop doing it or they will walk away” said MANA leader and Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira, on...
    Mana | 16-09
  • JOHN KEY SUPPORTING LABOUR
    “There is something really sick about a National Party Prime Minister coming out in support of a Labour candidate” said MANA leader and Tai Tokerau MP, Hone Harawira, after hearing that John Key is urging voters to back Labour in...
    Mana | 16-09
  • SHUT DOWN THIS GOVT NOT KAITI WINZ – Nikora
    “I’m going to make it as hard for you to get help as I can” is Paula Bennett’s message to the people of Kaiti  said MANA candidate Te Hāmua Nikora today in response to the news that National will close...
    Mana | 16-09
  • Winegums make for better polling – Harawira
    I wanted to laugh when I saw the Native Affairs poll the other night (Hone Harawira 38%, Kelvin Davis 37%) because it was almost the same as the one they did back in 2011”, said MANA leader and Tai Tokerau...
    Mana | 16-09
  • The Leadership of MTS Lied – Harawira
    “Normally I’m happy to tell people that I was right but when I received the news about the staff cuts at Maori Television, I had nothing but sympathy for the three Maori media leaders who are going to be made...
    Mana | 16-09
  • Privileges Complaint Laid against Prime Minister – Harawira
    MANA Movement Leader and Te Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira has today lodged a Privileges Complaint with the Speaker regarding the Prime Ministers denials in parliament that he knew anything about Kim Dotcom before 2012. “Information made public today appears...
    Mana | 15-09
  • Sharples’ new appointments are out of order
    The new appointments to the Waitangi Tribunal announced by Dr Pita Sharples this morning are completely out of order given the election is just five days away, says Labour's State Services spokesperson, Maryan Street. “This Government continues to show disdain...
    Labour | 15-09
  • MANA Movement Housing Policy
    “When families are living in cars, garages, cockroach-infested caravans and three families to a house then we have a housing crisis”, said MANA leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau, Hone Harawira. “When you have a housing crisis for low-income...
    Mana | 15-09
  • Bigger than the Foreshore and Seabed – Sykes
    “Over the past week I have received some disturbing information that has led myself and a number of Maori lawyers to conclude that this National - Maori Party - ACT and United Future Government are going to put an end to both...
    Mana | 14-09
  • MANA wants Te Reo Māori petition fulfilled
    Hone Harawira, MANA Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Annette Sykes, MANA candidate for Waiariki Te Hāmua Nikora, MANA candidate for Ikaroa Rāwhiti  “More than four decades have passed and the petition calling for Te Reo Māori in schools...
    Mana | 14-09
  • Primary focus on the critical issues
    A Labour Government will prioritise New Zealand’s agricultural sectors by recreating a Rural Affairs Minister and appointing a Primary Industry Council and a Chief Agricultural Adviser. Releasing Labour’s Primary Sector and Rural Affairs policies today, spokesperson Damien O’Connor says the...
    Labour | 12-09
  • Maori Television fears confirmed – Harawira
    ...
    Mana | 12-09
  • More ghost houses from National
    The Government’s desperate pre-election announcement of more ghost houses won’t fool Aucklanders wanting action on the housing crisis, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “These are ghost houses, to go with National’s ghost tax cut. Families cannot live in ghost...
    Labour | 12-09
  • National bows to union pressure over travel time
    National has reluctantly bowed to pressure from unions and adopted Labour’s fair and sensible policy to pay home support workers for the time they spend traveling between clients, Labour’s Associate Health spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “This decision is long overdue...
    Labour | 12-09
  • I feel sorry for Labour Party members and supporters
    I feel really sorry for the members and supporters of the Labour Party as they watch their caucus tear itself to shreds. And no matter what the outcome of the coming leadership race Labour members and supporters will be the...
    The Daily Blog | 01-10
  • Ummmm, why is Auckland Transport spying on Aucklanders?
    Ummm. What? Sophisticated surveillance coming to Auckland Surveillance technology that uses high definition cameras and software that can put names to faces and owners to cars is coming to Auckland. The surveillance has the capability to also scan social media...
    The Daily Blog | 01-10
  • It. Is. About. The. Economy. Stupid.
    Liam Dann does a good job of explaining the positive and negative issues looming for the NZ economy and as dairy prices plunge again overnight alongside a large Wall st sell off  and China Bank rumours begin, his case for the negative...
    The Daily Blog | 01-10
  • Don’t think of it as reinvading Iraq, think of it as redecorating Iraq
    I think some NZers view Iraq like an episode of The Block. Yes Iraq is the worst country on the street, but with a bit of elbow grease by our SAS and some great deals down at Bunnings, hey presto we...
    The Daily Blog | 01-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Joe Trinder – Mana Maori alliance
    Most Maori you speak to on the street can’t understand why Mana movement and  Maori Party don’t combine it confuses them why Maori are divided cross benches in Parliament instead of a unified political power that represents 15% of the...
    The Daily Blog | 01-10
  • Party members and affiliates – the real losers in Labour’s leadership f...
    Hey, wanna do a back room deal that cuts the members and affiliates out? Cunliffe must be reeling. He has lost failed Ilam candidate James Dann. It must cut as deep as the loss of Steve Gibson. Apart from providing Claire...
    The Daily Blog | 30-09
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, the election res...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, the election result...
    The Daily Blog | 30-09
  • The rich get richer
    Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman highlights the growing inequality in this article in the New York Times. The left wing slogan that the “the rich get richer” is a fact of almost perverse power. The most recent period of expansion in the...
    The Daily Blog | 30-09
  • A brief word on reinvading Iraq
    So after telling the country before the election that NZ would not send forces to Iraq, lo and behold now he’s won the election with a full spectrum dominance political majority, Key is suddenly now looking to join the re-invasion of...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • A brief word on the importance of ACT, Maori Party and United Future to Nat...
    I’m a far right wing clown who attacks tax money going on anything collective, gimmie some cash and privilege.  One of the great successes of National has been to implement hard right policy but have it sold as moderate. For some NZers,...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • Labour’s Angst
    Was Labour’s predictably low vote David Cunliffe’s fault? Was it policy? Was it something else that has aroused perceptions of electoral carnage? My analysis of the numbers suggests that, as uncertain voters made up their minds, there was a late...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • Information wars: Gaza as “the last taboo”, the threat of mass surveill...
    “When the truth is replaced with silence” wrote the soviet dissident Yevgeni Yevtushenko, “the silence is a lie.” There has been a silence these past months full of noise, static and sound bites of those in power justifying their violence,...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • When the media say they covered Dirty Politics – did they?
    I was watching The Nation in the weekend, and watched the defenders of NZ media up against Minto telling him he was wrong in his claims of media bias and that the media covered Dirty Politics. I laughed. When the...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • GUEST BLOG – P Campbell – To the Left with love
    A week after the general election results I feel wrung out emotionally, having been through the disappointment, depression and anger of seeing  another right wing government elected overwhelmingly by winning support from the parts of NZ that will never benefit...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – I will be the new Labour Leader!
    One week after the election, while I was still waiting to be consulted about contributing to the review on what went wrong, what do you know? There is a leadership challenge. So instead of opting for a united, thoughtful and...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – A Prescient Post
    A very prescient pre-election post by Martyn Bradbury tells us why the Labour Party are at war now. “The NZ First-Labour Party attack strategy against Internet MANA better work” Despite Martyn Bradbury warning them this Right Wing strategy “Better Work”...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – W(h)ither Labour (!/?)
    There’s an old saying that success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan. Not so in the Labour Party, wherein soul-crushing defeat on a scale unseen since 1925 definitely has many fathers (and more than a few mothers and...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • At the end of the day…
    At the end of the day…...
    The Daily Blog | 29-09
  • Cynicism towards Key’s sudden desire to help children in poverty
    Cynicism towards Key’s sudden desire to help children in poverty...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • Internet MANA the election and the media
    I’ve been very critical of media reporting of Internet MANA during the election campaign and not surprised at the predictable response from representatives of the corporate media establishment. I wasn’t going to carry this further but was asked at the...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Rachel Jones – A superficial discourse analysis of a superfic...
    On Sunday there was a story about Paddy Gower and his detached retina in the Herald on Sunday. Really? I hear you ask. Really? Yes, really. Pam Corkery will have sprayed toast crumbs over her dressing gown. The reporter has become...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • Terrorising Australia’s Muslim population
    We should be suspicious when 800 police conduct “terror” raids across Australia, but only one person is charged with a relevant terrorism offence (of which we know few details). We should be suspicious of the lurid tales of terrorists planning...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • Another Labour leader has resigned and as per usual, the media lost its min...
    Another Labour leader has resigned and as per usual, the media lost its mind. I know the Labour party has its problems and I’m not even going to try to prescribe what should be done about it. But what I...
    The Daily Blog | 28-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – Loyalty, Leadership and the Labour Party
    My first after the election and I can only say I’m feeling pretty sad.  It was a terrible result, and feels even more so knowing the number of volunteers hours, hard work & sacrifice made by so many people who...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • A Study in Party Stability
    . In terms of long-term stability, one party above stands above all others, with the exception of personality-driven groups such as NZ First and United Future. That party is the Greens. If the Labour Party wants to look elsewhere for...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • Cunliffe vs Robertson – Round 2
    Much to the disappointment of the NZ Herald and other right wing pundits who have decided they would like to appoint the next Labour leader, Cunliffe has surprised by deciding to damn the Caucus and appeal directly to the members...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • The tasks before the left and labour movement
    Anyone on the left would have been disappointed at the result of the election. There was an opportunity to win, but that got lost through a combination of factors. There were tactical decisions made by Labour, the Greens and Internet-Mana...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • From Fiji’s dictatorship to ‘democracy’ – the AUT student team on t...
    Mads Anneberg’s profile on Ricardo Morris and Repúblika. David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific. THREE STUDENTS from AUT University covered Fiji’s historic “from dictatorship to democracy” general election this month. While the election arguably legitimised Voreqe Bainimarama’s so-called 2006...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • David Cunliffe Resigns As Labour Leader – Forces Robertson Out of the Bel...
    David Cunliffe has made a smart move, resigning as the leader of the Labour Party so as to force a leadership primary campaign. The move draws rival Grant Robertson out of the beltway to parts of the country where he...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • Deep thought vs Deep prejudice
    . . This letter to the editor appeared in The Listener, on 27 September, and caught my attention; . . Mr Dawson wrote in response to one of those typically unthinking comments which  condemned the poor for their “unbridled, reckless...
    The Daily Blog | 27-09
  • The NZ National voters elected
    The NZ National voters elected...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – The post election postmortem is giving me post p...
    I feel the need to contribute to the discourse. This is a new experience for me. Not having an opinion, but expressing it on a popular forum in a public sphere. That’s why I have waited till now and put...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • A dictionary of education terms and definitions, brought to you by the let...
    Free to all TDB readers, please enjoy your very own cut-out-and-keep handy primer of terms that I predict you will need to know over the next three years… Achievement Gap (noun) Synonym for wealth gap. ACT (abstract noun) Intangible. Reported to exist in...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • A Mines Rescue brigadesman’s perspective on the Pike River Mine
    My husband and I lived in Greymouth in 2010, we were a coal mining family.  The day Pike River Mine blew up and the days following changed us profoundly, as it did for so many.  This is a Mines Rescue...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • The Left Triumphant! A Counterfactual History of the Last Twelve Months.
    DID IT REALLY HAVE TO END LIKE THIS? Reading through the commentary threads of the left-wing blogs it is impossible to not feel the anger; the sense of betrayal; the impression of having had something vital ripped from their grasp;...
    The Daily Blog | 26-09
  • GUEST BLOG – Myles Thomas: The media won it!
    Make no mistake, John Key is a clever communicator – reasonable, authoritative and relaxed – but without the media he wouldn’t be PM. Depending on your viewpoint, New Zealand’s news media are either a bunch of Grey Lynn lefties or...
    The Daily Blog | 25-09
  • Not Learning Lessons Past: the West’s Response to IS
    In an earlier posting Ukraine, United Kingdom, Ireland, Scotland, I noted that the first lesson of conflict learned by Robert McNamara was “understand your adversary”. If we have honourable objectives, our first and most important weapon is empathy. In the Vietnam War,...
    The Daily Blog | 25-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Dr Jarrod Gilbert – Proof of David Farrar’s deception: my ...
    In the lead up to the election the Minister of Corrections Anne Tolley launched a gang policy. In order to justify the government’s approach she used gang figures that overstated the gang problem. Not by a little bit, but a...
    The Daily Blog | 25-09
  • SPECIAL FEATURE: Stuart Nash – Red To The Rescue?
    SPECIAL FEATURE by Selwyn Manning. IF THE ELECTION RESULT which was dished out to Labour was not enough to incite an immediate leadership primary, then the caucus’ refusal to recognise David Cunliffe as the leader should cement it. Now is...
    The Daily Blog | 25-09
  • Has the one party state crackdown begun already? Left wing NZ activist grou...
    Well known left wing activist social media group, ‘John Key Has Left Down NZ’ has been shut down on Facebook. At 11.40pm last night, Facebook, without any warning shut the group down siting a breach of terms of service as...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • Why Cunliffe should probably just let Nash & Robertson win
    We have to face some very unpalatable home truths. If you are a left wing political person, best you put your vote now to the Green Party, although you’ll have to do that all the while the Greens frantically tell you...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • The graceless win of Kelvin Davis
    The graceless win of Cameron Slater’s mate in the North, Kelvin Davis is difficult to swallow. Here Cameron Slater’s mate in the North is shitting on Hone Harawira by calling Hone all steam, no hangi as Kelvin rubs his ganged up win into...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • So Labour shifted too far to the left?
    So Labour shifted too far to the left?   Here’s the ill-judged view of Josie Pagani in the Pundit “Labour must change”: “At the last election I made myself a heretic when I wrote a column mentioning how unpopular the...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • Uncomplicated Loyalties: Why Cunliffe and the Labour Left Cannot Win
    THE STORY of David Cunliffe’s leadership of the Labour Party has been one of missed opportunities and unforced errors. That he was the only choice available to those who wanted to rid the Labour Party of its neoliberal cuckoos is...
    The Daily Blog | 24-09
  • So we can expect this now?
    So we can expect this now?...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • Can Labour be saved? Why Whaleoil & National won and why we need a new ...
    As the shock of my optimism that NZers would recoil from the real John Key as exposed by Dirty Politics and mass surveillance duplicities wears off, I am surprised to find that the right in NZ are not content with...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • Three more years (up shit creek and paddling hard)
    “If the future is not green, there is no future. If the future is not you, there is no future”. Emma Thompson’s stirring words to the climate marchers in London last Sunday are worth considering in the aftermath of the...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • One Party State
    In years to come this election will be seen as a historic turning point towards one party rule. I don`t mean this literally, absolute single party dictatorship is not in prospect. In the New Zealand context though, one party has...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • No More. The Left Falls.
    . We cannot be beaten down Because we are down already. We can only rise up and if you should beat us down, We will rise again. And again. And again… And when you tire of beating us down, We...
    The Daily Blog | 23-09
  • Hang tight everyone – Marama Davidson campaign reflection
    To the many people who had expressed their overwhelming support for me to enter Parliament this election – thank you. That the Greens held steady in a big loss for progressive politics is an achievement. We are hopeful that after...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • How You Can Help the Homeless
    At any one time, there are an estimated 357 homeless people in Central Auckland alone, many enduring hardships beyond the rain, wind and cold of sleeping rough. October 10 is World Homeless Day when the public are invited to learn...
    Scoop politics | 02-10
  • Over 20% of Gold Production Now Pledged to Kiwifruit Claim
    Kiwifruit growers representing over 20% of New Zealand gold kiwifruit production have already pledged to join The Kiwifruit Claim, the chairman of the claim’s grower committee, John Cameron, said today....
    Scoop politics | 02-10
  • ‘Creepy’ Decision on Up-Skirt Filming Slammed
    Family First NZ says that a discharge without conviction given to a man who filmed up a woman's dress in a Wellington department store is a ‘creepy’ decision that should concern all people who value their privacy. “This decision by...
    Scoop politics | 02-10
  • Speaker leads delegation to CPA Conference
    Strengthening New Zealand’s ties with parliaments from across the world will be the focus of the upcoming delegation to the 60th Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA) Conference in Yaoundé, Cameroon from 4-10 October and the 131st Inter-Parliamentary...
    Scoop politics | 02-10
  • Response to Russell Brown and Tertiary Education Union
    The allegation that I have worked with others to discredit public health efforts is wrong. My public comments in relation to public health researchers have been where academics have mislead the public about official support or endorsement, and where...
    Scoop politics | 02-10
  • 17 jobs lost as Bridon/Cookes reaches the end of its rope
    Seventeen workers at the iconic Bridon/Cookes wire rope company in Auckland are to be made redundant as the company ceases production in New Zealand. The company has blamed the high New Zealand dollar for making it uncompetitive to keep the...
    Scoop politics | 02-10
  • Slip in University Rankings – Funding Not the Problem
    Responding to the slippage of New Zealand universities' rankings , Jordan Williams, Executive Director of the Taxpayers’ Union says:...
    Scoop politics | 02-10
  • Time to rethink police chases, says safety campaigner
    Police chases are dangerous and generally unnecessary, says the American Federal Bureau of Investigation....
    Scoop politics | 02-10
  • Robertson now expected to be Labour leader by Xmas
    Grant Robertson is now overwhelmingly picked to become the next leader of the Labour Party by the end of the year, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Another potential Labour...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Documenting historic Māori land law cases for the first time
    A new book from Victoria University of Wellington’s Faculty of Law will continue to put the spotlight on Māori Land Law judgments which have never before been published....
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • ‘Oily’ people greet Petroleum Summit diners
    Greenpeace activists smeared in fake oil have greeted guests arriving at the part-Statoil sponsored Petroleum Summit dinner this evening....
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Key Decisions Made About Labour’s Leadership Election
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has made the key decisions about the timetable and process around the election of Labour’s Party Leader. The result will be announced on Tuesday 18th November, following a comprehensive and extensive process unique...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Suspected $6 Million Dollar Wananga Fraud Alarming
    The Taxpayers’ Union is calling on on the Te Whare Wananga o Awanuiarangi to front up over claims the Wananga has pocketed government overpayments amounting to $6 million of taxpayers' money. Jordan Williams, Executive Director of the Taxpayers’ Union...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Submissions sought on herbicide for weed control in maize
    The Environmental Protection Authority is calling for submissions on a herbicide to improve broadleaf weed control in maize. The substance CADET contains 100g fluthiacet-methyl in the form of an emulsifiable concentrate and would contain a new active ingredient...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Jesse Mulligan Lives Below Poverty Line
    Jesse Mulligan Lives Below Poverty Line TV personality Jesse Mulligan will live on the equivalent of the extreme poverty line this October in order to raise awareness of sex trafficking. Mulligan will survive on $2.25 for his food from October...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Narratives from the 2014 Election: What do we learn?
    Narratives from the 2014 Election: What do we learn? - Sue Bradford, Russell Brown & Kirk Serpes discuss....
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Voices from Oceania to speak out on climate change
    Voices from Oceania to speak out on climate change at launch of Pacific environment report...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Changes to Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre messages
    The Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management advises that while changes to Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre messages come into effect from today (Wednesday 1 October), the Ministry has been, and remains, the authoritative voice for tsunami...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Police remove banner at Statoil Offices in Wellington
    Oil Free Wellington hung a banner at 9:30 this morning at the Statoil office headquarters in Wellington as the Petroleum Summit opened in Auckland. The banner, which read 'Statoil out of Northland: Stop Deep Sea Oil', has now been removed...
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Mixed massages raise concerns
    Mixed massages raise concerns for Te Taumata Kaumatua Ngapuhi nui tonu, and Te Wakaminenga O nga Hapu Ngapuhi....
    Scoop politics | 01-10
  • Union Slams Port Boss’s Pay Rise
    The Rail and Maritime Transport Union (RMTU) says Lyttelton Port CEO Peter Davie’s 18% wage rise, taking his pay packet to $1.24m, is unjustified and inflammatory. ‘Lyttelton port has an appalling health and safety record, with three deaths on...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Prisons expert Ron Nikkel to speak in Auckland October 15
    Prison Fellowship NZ and JustSpeak have the privilege of hosting the former president of Prison Fellowship International, Ron Nikkel....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Hundreds of educators protest IES in Rotorua
    Four hundred educators from around the country took their opposition to the Government's controversial Investing in Educational Success policy to the public today....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Crime drops by 3.2 % in the 2013 / 2014 financial year
    Criminal offences dropped by 3.2 % in the last financial year according to figures released today through Statistics New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Narratives from the 2014 Election: what do we learn?
    I would like to invite you to a Fabians Reflection on "Dirty Politics, Dotcom and Labour’s worst result" with Colin James, Keith Ng, Stephanie Rodgers and Richard Harman. They will provide a debrief of analysis and lessons from the 2014...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Oil Free Wellington drops banner from Statoil headquarters
    Today members of Oil Free Wellington have targeted the offices of Statoil, by attaching a banner reading 'Statoil out of Northland: Stop Deep Sea Oil' to the entrance of Vodafone on the Quay Midland Park, where Statoil's New Zealand office...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Media Statement from Karen Price
    “After a period of intense media attention and scrutiny of our family, I set up and used an anonymous Twitter account over the weekend and made a number of comments that I deeply regret....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Greenpeace disrupts Simon Bridges’ speech to oil industry
    Greenpeace activists have disrupted the opening speech by Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges at the Petroleum Summit in Auckland this morning....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • New Zealand Red Cross Responds to Drought in Tonga
    New Zealand Red Cross has sent an aid worker and two desalination units, to turn seawater into safe drinking water in the drought-hit Ha’apai islands of Tonga....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Can you ever tell if an email is real or forged?
    Computer industry veteran Brian Eardley-Wilmot warns that we should never take claims about stolen emails at face value....
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • NZ MPs to attend the ASPG Annual Conference in Sydney
    New Zealand MPs to attend the Australasian Study of Parliament Group Annual Conference in Sydney...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Independent Maori seats still needed in Parliament
    “He’s got to be joking!” is the reaction of the president of the Maori Party, Rangimarie Naida Glavish to a call by a former Labour Minister of Maori Affairs, Dover Samuels, for debate by Maori on whether the Maori electorates...
    Scoop politics | 30-09
  • Support for Democratic Rights in Hong Kong
    Rallies supporting the rights for universal suffrage will take place all over New Zealand today and tomorrow...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Trout Mass-Poisoned in New Zealand
    Trout Mass-Poisoned in New Zealand The Graf Boys New Zealand has some of the best trout fishing in the world! Every year thousands of international visitors wade pristine rivers in search of the freshwater game fish....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • New Zealand’s 2014 Hottest Vegetarians Crowned
    With winter gone things are heating up, and things just got even hotter with the crowning of New Zealand’s hottest vegetarians, says animal advocacy group SAFE. Marking World Vegetarian Day, 1st October, director James Napier Robertson and actor...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • A day to remember our duty to look after our senior citizens
    Human Rights Commissioner Dr Jackie Blue says International Day of the Older Person (1 October) is a United Nations day to celebrate our senior citizens, but also acknowledge the need to protect our kaumatua, or older people from abuse and...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Clear data needed on impact of benefit sanctions on children
    A lack of data on benefit sanctions means there is no way of knowing whether welfare reform is helping or harming children, says Child Poverty Action Group....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • The socialist alternative to austerity and war
    Public meeting: After the New Zealand election—the socialist alternative to austerity and war By Tom Peters 29 September 2014...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • New recruits to boost border protection
    Twenty six new recruits began an intensive nine-week training course in Auckland today that will see them graduate as Customs officers in time for the busy summer season....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Dwindling Mallard population shows up ‘pest’ myth
    The pro hunting organisation Fish & Game is researching the causes of the decline of the mallard duck population, upset at the prospect of fewer ducks to kill....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Support for Democratic Rights in Hong Kong
    New Zealanders in Auckland will gather on Wednesday to support the rights for universal suffrage in Hong Kong....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Campbell Live Exclusive Interview with David Cunliffe
    David Cunliffe resigned as leader of the Labour party on Saturday; but he still wants the top job....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Action needed on cycling safety
    “Clearly we aren't doing enough to protect the 1.5 million New Zealanders who ride bikes,” said Mr Morgan....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • World Rivers Day Passes Without A Whimper
    Sunday 28 September was World Rivers Day to celebrate clean, flowing rivers and caring about them. But a recreation-conservation advocacy the Council of Outdoor Recreation Associations of NZ (CORANZ) says the day seems to have slipped by without...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • The Kiwifruit Claim: Q&A
    1. Who is running The Kiwifruit Claim? The Kiwifruit Claim was founded by kiwifruit growers representing well in excess of 10% of the industry. 2. Why are you running this claim? The introduction of Psa into New Zealand had devastating...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Fed Farmers Need to Be Weaned
    The Taxpayers’ Union is calling on Federated Farmers to make a firm commitment to reject any future Government funding, after it was revealed that the lobby group had received over $200,000 of payments in recent years....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Children paying the price for charter school stitch up
    New Zealand children will be paying a high price for a one-seat deal between ACT and National, with an expansion of the beleaguered charter school system says education union NZEI Te Riu Roa....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Hikoi From North Reaches Oil Conference Tomorrow
    Today: The Hikoi opposing Statoil plans for seismic testing and deep sea oil drilling has marched through Dargaville and later be welcomed to Piringatahi Marae, West Harbour,Tamaki Makaurau/Auckland....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Communities Still Count
    The efforts of many organisations to influence the electorate and the political parties they voted for in the lead up to the 2014 Election is over. The voting public has spoken and provided a strong endorsement to the centre-right National...
    Scoop politics | 29-09
  • Eleven social enterprises get ready to take off
    Eleven teams from across the country will take part in the Launchpad, Ākina’s programme to get social enterprise ideas off the ground....
    Scoop politics | 29-09
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lprent: At the request of Tim Barnett, Labour's returning officer, the Karen Price/Clayton Cosgrove post has been withdrawn during the primary.