web analytics
The Standard

Polling merry-go-round

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 20th, 2013 - 28 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags: ,

February’s Roy Morgan had the Nats up and Labour down, prompting Zetetic’s post “Latest Roy Morgan… a bit shit“. The Roy Morgan out yesterday had National down 4 to 43.5, Labour up 2 to 32.5, Greens up 1 to 13.5, and overall a projected win for the left.

So that’s a bad Roy Morgan followed by a good one. We’ve been here before, exactly the same pattern in the two before these, a bad one (with a Zet post) followed by a good one (and my post focusing on the long term trend).

From which I guess we can conclude that (1) our mate Zet is a pessimist, while (2) I’m a foolish optimist, and (3) the margin of error makes individual polls a mad merry-go-round that we shouldn’t get too excited about. Here’s another analysis of the trend in Roy Morgan polls…

roy morgan labour greens v nats 3

28 comments on “Polling merry-go-round”

  1. David H 1

    Yep we are on a seesaw 32.5 to 30.5 back to 32.5 and down again ad infinitum it seems. What a pity that they can never hit 35 as that will throw little Davey off the seesaw.

    • Lanthanide 1.1

      I wouldn’t be adverse to a drop to 25 and dumping big Davey off…

      • Alanz 1.1.1

        As my good friend who votes Natz (and I don’t hold that against him!) says:
        Shearer is Labour’s liability and National’s asset.

        • Anne 1.1.1.1

          Which of course is why Matthew Hooton, Michelle Boag et al went all out to bolster Shearer’s chances at the time of the leadership contest. It was extraordinary! A couple of die-hard Tories telling the Labs who to vote for (as if it was their Party) and a majority of the Lab caucus fell for it.

  2. Daveo 2

    Roy Morgan’s trademark is its lack of insight into NZ politics. They can do the polling fine, but their analysis is always well off-beam. Their mistake is to assume Winston would automatically choose to play third-fiddle to Labour and the Greens rather than second-fiddle to the Nats.

    Also, any political analysis of polls needs to remember that if David Shearer’s still leader he’ll almost certainly drop a few points for Labour in the campaign. So long as Labour’s more than 10 points out from National we should be very worried.

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      Yep. This polling seems to project a win for Winston Peters above all else, if we’re not careful.

      We’ll know that we have found a winning streak with Labour if they score 3 polls out of 4 above 35%. But currently, that is still a faraway dream.

      Currently it’s more like 3 polls out of 4 sit between 30% and 34%.

      • Matthew Hooton 2.1.1

        Interesting new poll in Herald today. Labour up to 36.4%, above the 35% you cite as important. Also, Shearer up 6 points to 18.5%, which is a very good number for an opposition leader against a popular prime minister (compare what Bolger got against Lange in mid-late 1980s, or Clark against Bolger when the in mid 1990s.) See http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10872574 Remember also that recent history suggests the polls overstate National’s support by a point or two and this poll is yet another suggesting Shearer will be prime minister of a Labour/Green government by the end of next year. (Note though the poll was taken before the carpark tax and UN bank account issues.)

        • Andre 2.1.1.1

          Hey Matthew did Helen goose you somtime ?I cannot remember you saying anything to refrence labour without Aunty Helen woven into the mire.

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.2

          Labour up to 36.4%, above the 35% you cite as important.

          Let’s see if they make it 3 out of 4 polls Matthew. You did see that National’s numbers also firmed to a single party rule 49% right?

          Also note those thresholds were for the Roy Morgan, and not really transferable to other polls who tend to run consistently higher or lower numbers for Labour.

  3. karol 3

    I’m not much of a political poll watcher/analyst. At this stage of the electorate cycle each poll is a bit like reading the tea leaves.

    But this Morgan Poll is interesting:

    NEW ZEALAND REAL UNEMPLOYMENT UP 0.6% TO 9.4% &
    A FURTHER 11.6% OF WORKFORCE UNDER-EMPLOYED – THE HIGHEST RECORDED

    And below the main results, there’s a break down of the differences between Roy Morgan’s polls on workforce, unemployment etc, and that of Stats NZ.

  4. Matthew 4

    The part i thought was interesting was, in complete contrast to the last poll that saw NAT up which was shouted from the rooftops by the MSM, this one was completely ignored.

  5. Skinny 5

    Not reading too much into the current polling. I see the next election as a landslide victory to the Labour/Green combo.

     Peters will have to declare his running mates sometime mid next year, which would have to be L/G or his support will collapse. Labour need to sort him out or force his hand. Can’t have him playing the tune again.

    National have been doing a great job of getting the slackers (800,000) no show voters from the last election to get out & vote. It will be the telling blow make my words.

    • Skinny 5.1

      *mark

    • alwyn 5.2

      Why on earth do you say that “Peters will have to declare his running mates …”?
      He never has done so before and I can see no reason at all why he is going to now.
      To say that you will only support one party simply makes you a hostage to that party’s policies, and fortunes. It was a mistake made by the Green party, in my view, during the Fitzsimmons/Donald era. At that time, with the focus of the party being on environmental rather than economic issues it was unnecessary as they could easily have argued that they could work with either Labour or National. It would have given them some leverage on the Labour Government.
      Peters was never so silly as to lock himself into the thrall of another party and isn’t silly enough to do so now. What on earth is wrong with him proclaiming his own party’s policies and saying he will work with whatever other parties will help him achieve them?
      If you say, before an election that you will only co-operate with, say, Labour you will simply lose half the support you might have. Anyone who wants a National led Government now will have no reason at all to vote for you.

      • framu 5.2.1

        not that what you are saying is wrong there alwyn – but IMO it wouldve looked weirder if the greens had said “um.. national? yeah why not”

        its no secret who the greens allies are and its no secret that the chances of nats and greens getting on as a govt are nill

        also – wasnt there a bit of a public mood for pre-decleration at the time?

        of course none of what ive said applies to winnie now, then or later on

        • alwyn 5.2.1.1

          You will note that I said that the Green Party of the Fitzsimmons/Donald era could have gone with National. Donald of course died in 2005.
          They were primarily concerned with the environment and I don’t think that there was really that much difference between Labour and National on that issue in the 2000 – 2005 period.
          It couldn’t happen now as the current Green Party leadership are concentrating on economic rather than environmental issues these days and are taking a left leaning line.
          My personal view of Winston, assuming that he gets back in and is the Kingmaker, is that he would prefer to be second string in a two team boat than a third string tag-along. His price would of course be a knighthood. Do you think Labour would guarantee him that?
          Mind you anyone trying to get along with Winston is sure to get trouble. It’s happened three times already.

          • ak 5.2.1.1.1

            Doubt it alwyn. The tory/media machine nearly killed him in 08 over nothing at all because his rhetoric had made it very clear he would never support them. If you’ve eaten already, check out eg what Hooters said at the time.

            Near-death experiences are hard to forget and forgive, and at his age it’s like yesterday. Which of course won’t stop the machine from desperately wooing Winnie by repeating ad nauseam the very motives you impute.

            Way to win friends, Johnny no-mates & co: call him selfish and venal.

  6. Matthew 6

    Again, interestingly this morning on stuff.co.nz they make a big deal about a herald-digipoll showing high support for Key, while adding the (contradictory) results of the Roy Morgan poll in a little paragraph at the bottom of the article. This kind of polling & resulting headlines makes a complete mockery of the polling system overall. I would personally be very supportive of a complete ban on political polls conducted by media organisations, especially in the leadup to an election.

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      ban their publication in the 30 days leading up to an election. Have the results available on a website however (but results not publishable or discussable in the media; just the name of the website can be mentioned).

      AT ALL OTHER TIMES if you want to run and publish any political poll in the nation wide media it must meet approved standards. Specifically: the number of don’t knows, the number of refuse to participate, the number of refuse to answer the individual question must all be published, along with the detailed poll methodology (landline, internet, etc).

      • Matthew 6.1.1

        I absolutely agree with this. We have seen the damage that media-driven polling can do to the voting public, and Australia has a similar ban in place already.

        • Colonial Viper 6.1.1.1

          Democracy ain’t perfect, but it can be much better than it is currently.

          • pollywog 6.1.1.1.1

            Secure on line voting and polling by txt…FTW!!!

            • Colonial Viper 6.1.1.1.1.1

              No online voting. Ever.

              • pollywog

                Why not?

                If it’s secure enough for banking why not voting/polling?

                • Colonial Viper

                  Who the frak said it’s secure enough for banking? I suppose you think a 4 digit pin is safe enough for ATMs?

                  • pollywog

                    It’s secure enough to start with. Always from for improvement but if you want to improve voting stats for the slacker generation then you’re gonna have to interact on their terms…and that means online and by txt.

                    Alternatively just keep letting the babyboomers maintain the balance of power cos gen x doesn’t really give a fuck.

    • vto 6.2

      Who owns the Herald?

      Follow the money ………

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Stalled TPP chance for wider discussion
    Failure to get the TPP agreement across the line gives New Zealanders an opportunity to put more pressure on the Government not to sign away our sovereignty, Opposition leader Andrew Little says.“New Zealand land, dairy and medicines are up for… ...
    1 day ago
  • Will poor TPP dairy outcome stop National selling out our homes?
    After failing to protect the right to stop foreign speculators buying our houses it’s clear the Government is not going to get wins on dairy in their TPP negotiations either, Labour’s Trade and Export spokesperson David Parker says. “Labour has… ...
    3 days ago
  • Feeling aspirational
    Yesterday the Rich List showed the number of people who have over 50 million of wealth had increased by another 15 people since last year. Collectively this group are now worth 55 billion, an increase of over 7% since last… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 days ago
  • Feeling aspirational
    Yesterday the Rich List showed the number of people who have over 50 million of wealth had increased by another 15 people since last year. Collectively this group are now worth 55 billion, an increase of over 7% since last… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 days ago
  • Feeling aspirational
    Yesterday the Rich List showed the number of people who have over 50 million of wealth had increased by another 15 people since last year. Collectively this group are now worth 55 billion, an increase of over 7% since last… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 days ago
  • Bennett’s legacy a test for Tolley
    Former Social Development Minister Paula Bennett has been thrown under the bus by her successor after its been suggested that Ms Bennett gave the green light to an ‘unethical’ observational study of high-risk children, Labour Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says.… ...
    3 days ago
  • Submission to Greater Christchurch Earthquake Recovery: Transition to Rege...
    Thank you for the opportunity to contribute to the Draft Transition Recovery Plan on behalf of the New Zealand Labour Party.  It is important that the citizens of Canterbury have a voice in the governance of the next step of… ...
    3 days ago
  • Troubled school wanted $25,000 dollars to fence farm
    The troubled Whangaruru charter school asked Hekia Parata for $25,000 to fence the school farm at the expense of spending on teaching, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “This unbelievable revelation comes hard on the heels of Hekia Parata’s decision to… ...
    3 days ago
  • Troubled school wanted $25,000 dollars to fence farm
    The troubled Whangaruru charter school asked Hekia Parata for $25,000 to fence the school farm at the expense of spending on teaching, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “This unbelievable revelation comes hard on the heels of Hekia Parata’s decision to… ...
    3 days ago
  • Government report on sexual & family violence a good first step
    Yesterday the Government released the cabinet paper on progress on the work programme of the Ministerial Group on Family Violence and Sexual Violence. Along with the Human Rights Commissioner and Women’s Refuge, I really welcome the report. I’m relieved that… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 days ago
  • Government report on sexual & family violence a good first step
    Yesterday the Government released the cabinet paper on progress on the work programme of the Ministerial Group on Family Violence and Sexual Violence. Along with the Human Rights Commissioner and Women’s Refuge, I really welcome the report. I’m relieved that… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 days ago
  • Prisoner voting disqualification and the Bill of Rights Act
    In 2010, National rammed the Electoral (Disqualification of Sentenced Prisoners) Amendment Bill through Parliament. Paul Quinn’s Member’s Bill existed because Paul Quinn thought anyone who’d been imprisoned was a serious offender, and serious offenders had ‘forfeited’ their right to vote.… ...
    GreensBy David Clendon MP
    4 days ago
  • Mainfreight ‘appalled’ by Government’s rail madness
    The Government has been given a serve by New Zealand-based international trucking and logistics firm Mainfreight which says it lacks a national transport strategy, and has treated rail badly, Labour's Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford says. The company has told shareholders it… ...
    4 days ago
  • National’s Health and Safety Reform Bill: less safety and fewer rights at...
    The New Zealand Council of Trade Unions is embarking on a campaign to fight the changes that weaken the Health and Safety Reform bill. As part of the campaign the CTU has organised vigils with the display of 291 crosses… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    4 days ago
  • All options need to be put on meat sector table
    Farmers must be given every assurance that all potential risks have been considered before Silver Fern Farms opens its door to foreign equity, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “The ongoing saga involving the meat sector and amalgamation has… ...
    4 days ago
  • Flag the referendum if 50% or more don’t vote
    Labour has moved to have the second flag referendum canned if the first attracts fewer than half the eligible number of voters, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “John Key has already wasted more than $8 million on his vanity project… ...
    5 days ago
  • 90,000 cars reclassified in botched ACC ratings
    New figures obtained by Labour show the ACC Minister’s botched motor vehicle levy system has resulted in 90,000 vehicles having to be reclassified so far – at a cost of $6 million, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “Nikki Kaye’s… ...
    5 days ago
  • Brutal health cuts confirmed, crucial services suffer
    Chronic under-funding by National has seen the health budget slashed by $1.7 billion in just five years, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. A report by Infometrics, commissioned by Labour, shows health funding has been cut in four of the… ...
    5 days ago
  • Meth ring under Serco’s nose
    The news that two Serco inmates have been arrested for helping to run a methamphetamine ring from prison should be the final straw and see their contract cancelled, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “National has stood by Serco despite… ...
    6 days ago
  • Ministers failing women and their own targets
    New figures showing just five Ministers have met the Government’s own reduced targets for appointing women to state sector boards is evidence National is failing Kiwi women, Labour’s Women’s Affairs spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “The Ministry for Women’s 2015 Gender… ...
    6 days ago
  • Charges up for some as funding up for grabs
    A proposal being considered by the Government would see some people having to pay more for health care and district health boards forced to fight amongst themselves to fund regional health services, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says “Information leaked… ...
    6 days ago
  • Stop experimenting on kids
    The trouble with the Charter school model is that it is a publicly funded experiment on children. The National Government has consistently put its desire to open charter schools ahead of the safety of the children in them, ignoring repeated… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    6 days ago
  • Bank puts the squeeze on mid Canterbury farmers
    News that an unnamed bank in Ashburton has put a receiver on notice over financially vulnerable farmers will send a chill through rural New Zealand, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The Government needs to work with  New Zealand’s banks… ...
    7 days ago
  • Key is trading away New Zealand land and homes
    John Key yesterday admitted what National dishonestly refused to confirm in Parliament last week – he is trading away New Zealand’s right to control who buys our homes and land, says Opposition leader Andrew Little. “The Prime Minister must now… ...
    7 days ago
  • Razor gang takes scalpel to health
    Plans by the Government to take a scalpel to democratically elected health boards are deceitful and underhand, coming just months after an election during which they were never signalled, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says “Leaked documents reveals a radical… ...
    7 days ago
  • Spin lines show a department in chaos
    Corrections Spin Doctors sending their place holder lines to journalists instead of responding to serious allegations shows the scale of chaos at the department over the Serco scandal, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “As more and more serious allegations… ...
    1 week ago
  • Court ruling shows law should never have been passed
    A High Court ruling that a law banning prisoners from voting is inconsistent with a properly functioning democracy should be a wake-up call for the Government, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. In an unprecedented ruling Justice Paul Heath has… ...
    1 week ago
  • Judicial Review Gamble Pays Off for Problem Gambling Foundation
    Congratulations are due to the Problem Gambling Foundation (PGFNZ) who have won their legal case around how the Ministry of Health decided to award their contracts for problem gambling services to another service provider. Congratulations are due not just for… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Environmental Protection Agency appoints GE advocate as new CEO
    This week, the Environmental Protection Authority Amendment Bill passed its first reading in Parliament. The Bill puts protection of the environment into the core purpose of the Environmental Protection Authority. This month, Dr Allan Freeth, the former Chief Executive of… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    1 week ago
  • Charanpreet Dhaliwal death demands genuine health and safety reform
    The killing of a security guard on his first night on the job is exactly the kind of incident that National’s watered-down health and safety bill won’t prevent, says Te Atatu MP Phil Twyford. The coronial inquest into 22-year-old Charanpreet… ...
    1 week ago
  • Arbitrary sanctions hit children hardest
    Increasing numbers of single parents are being penalised under a regime that is overly focussed on sanctions rather than getting more people into work, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “Figures, obtained through Parliamentary questions show 3000 more sanctions,… ...
    1 week ago
  • Hekia just won’t face the facts
    Hekia Parata’s decision to keep troubled Whangaruru Charter school open despite being presented with a catalogue of failure defies belief, goes against official advice and breaks a Government promise to close these schools if they were failing, says Labour’s Education… ...
    1 week ago
  • No more silent witnesses
    Yesterday I attended the launch of a new initiative developed by and for Asian, Middle eastern and African youth to support young people to name and get support if there is domestic violence at home. The impact on children of… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • Single Use Plastic Bags campaign – Some wins and some green-washing
    As we near the end of Plastic Free July I’m nearing the conclusion of my Say No To Plastic Bag tour when I will have completed all 30 of my public meetings. The campaign was designed to work with community… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Single Use Plastic Bags campaign – Some wins and some green-washing
    As we near the end of Plastic Free July I’m nearing the conclusion of my Say No To Plastic Bag tour when I will have completed all 30 of my public meetings. The campaign was designed to work with community… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Minister must take responsibility for problem gambling debacle
    The Government’s handling of the Problem Gambling Foundation’s axing in a cost-cutting exercise has been ham-fisted and harmful to some of the most vulnerable people in society, Associate Health Labour spokesperson David Clark says.“Today’s court ruling overturning the axing of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour will not support TPP if it undermines NZ sovereignty
    The Labour Party will not support the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement unless key protections for New Zealanders are met, Opposition leader Andrew Little says.“Labour supports free trade. However, we will not support a TPP agreement that undermines New Zealand’s sovereignty. ...
    1 week ago
  • Coleman can’t ignore latest warnings
    Resident doctors have advised that a severe staffing shortage at North Shore Hospital is putting patients’ lives at risk, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “They say a mismatch between staffing levels and patient workloads at North Shore has… ...
    1 week ago
  • ACC must remove barriers to appeals
    The Government must prioritise removing barriers to justice for ACC claimants following a damning report by Acclaim Otago, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “ACC Minister Nikki Kaye must urgently scrap her flawed plan to remove claimant’s right to redress… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Six months’ paid parental leave back on the agenda
    Six months’ paid parental leave is back on the agenda and a step closer to reality for Kiwi parents after Labour’s new Member’s Bill was pulled from today’s ballot, the Bill’s sponsor and Labour MP Sue Moroney says. “My Bill… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Sole parents at risk of having no income
    New requirements for sole parents to undertake a reapplication process after a year is likely to mean a large number will face benefit cancellations, but not because they have obtained work, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “Increasing numbers… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Juking the Welfare Stats Again
    Last week the government’s major initiative to combat child poverty (a paltry $25 increase) was exposed for what it is, a lie. The Government, through the Budget this year, claims to be engaging in the child poverty debate, but instead,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    2 weeks ago
  • OCR rate cut a result of flagging economy
    The Reserve Bank's decision to cut the Official Cash Rate to 3 per cent shows there is no encore for the so-called 'rock star' economy, says Labour's Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson.   "Today's interest rate cut comes off the back… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Reboot to an innovation economy, an Internet economy and a clean economy
    In my short 33 years on this planet we’ve seen phenomenal technological, economic and social change, and it’s realistic to expect the next 33 will see even more, even faster change. You can see it in the non-descript warehouse near… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Bill that puts the environment into the EPA passes first hurdle
    A Bill that puts the environment squarely into legislation governing the Environmental Protection Authority passed its first reading today, says Meka Whaitiri.  “I introduced this member’s bill as the current law doesn’t actually make protecting the environment a goal of… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Key’s KiwiSaver deception exposed
    KiwiSaver statistics released today expose John Key's claim that the cutting of the kickstart payment "will not make a blind bit of difference to the number of people who join KiwiSaver” to be duplicitous, says Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson.  “Official… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Minimum Wage Amendment Bill to protect contractors
    All New Zealanders should be treated fairly at work. Currently, the law allows non-employment relationships to be used to get around the minimum wage. This is unfair, says Labour MP David Parker. “The Minimum Wage (Contractor Remuneration) Amendment Bill, a… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bill raises bar to protect Kiwi farmland
    The Government’s rubber-stamping of every one of the nearly 400 applications from overseas investors to buy New Zealand farm land over the last three years proves tougher laws are needed, Labour MP Phil Goff says. “In the last term of… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Costly flag referendum should be dumped
    John Key must ditch the flag referendum before any more taxpayer money is wasted, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “Millions of dollars could be saved if the Prime Minister called a halt to this hugely expensive, and highly unpopular, vanity… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Nats letting Serco off scot free
    Government members have prevented Parliament’s Law and Order select committee from getting answers out of a senior Serco director about the fight clubs being run at Mt Eden prisons, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “At today’s Law and Order… ...
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere