RM: National Party support falls 2.5% to 43%

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 pm, June 20th, 2016 - 138 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, nz first, Politics, polls - Tags:

According to the latest Roy Morgan poll, the tyres are deflating on the National Party Crown Beamers:

During June support for National fell 2.5% to 43%, now just ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% would still be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government…

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 28% (down 1.5%), Greens 14.5% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 9% (down 0.5%).

More worryingly for National’s chances next year, the RM Government Confidence Rating dropped 9.5 points to 120.5 points. Having said that, electors who say that NZ is heading in the right direction still vastly outnumber those who say otherwise.

It doesn’t appear that the MOU has done Labour any favours though, with its support slightly softening. The Greens strengthened 2.5%. Although both changes were within the margin of error.

Gary Morgan comments:

Today’s result leaves New Zealand First 9% (down 0.5%) still in the strong position to determine who will form the next Government if an election were held today.

The poll was conducted May 30 – June 12, catching basically all the immediate reaction to the Labour/Greens MOU.

138 comments on “RM: National Party support falls 2.5% to 43% ”

  1. Keith 1

    Given all the rotten filthy dishonest ammunition given over by National in the last 8 years to be so deserving of this deflation, why now is it starting to look terminal all of a sudden, what is that nail (housing?) in the coffin or is it death by a 1000 cuts?

    • billmurray 1.1

      Keith, it is far to early, (and the fact that National have not dropped by much after MOU), to predict Nationals terminal demise.
      I am not happy that Labour is down 2.5% to 28% after the MOU.
      The Greens have obviously (so far) benefitted the most from the MOU and as a Labour person I worry that this trend may continue. Should this trend continue then Labour will need to back out of MOU or they risk their 2nd party status.
      More water under the bridge is needed but so far I am deflated.

      • toad 1.1.1

        If Labour support leaks only to the Greens, no probs. If it starts leaking to NZF or (aaargh) the Nats, the left will be in serious shit.

        I really don’t care whether Labour or Greens has the greater support at the next election – what I care about is that their combined vote is sufficient to defeat the Nats and that their policy consensus puts a halt to the ongoing Roger Douglas neo-lib entrism Labour has suffered from.

        • billmurray 1.1.1.1

          toad , I hear your sentiment but do not share it, for me to vote MOU then I need to see Labour in high dominance to the Greens in a coalition government, if not the deal is off for me.

          • Macro 1.1.1.1.1

            Then you really don’t understand MMP (and I gather) fortunately had no input into the MOU. If you want Labour to poll well at the next election then you need to get out and show that Labour has the hearts and minds of ordinary NZers foremost – just as as the Greens are doing – and will continue to do so up until the election.

          • weka 1.1.1.1.2

            So if Labour aren’t high enough who would you vote for in 2017?

  2. Stuart Munro 2

    Disenchantment – a thousand trivial data points gradually forms an inescapable conclusion – the Gnats are rubbish even by their own standards.

  3. I reckon it’s the death of a thousand cuts, myself. And the first big cut was self inflicted; there’s something mildly off putting about a grown man creepily fondling the hair of young women and even younger children. Throw in the failed flag referendum and the general tiredness and lack of ambition and ideas of the Key cabinet and NZ is just about ready to change the Government.

    Good work from Labour and the Greens is making it clear that there is now a real alternative.

    • Richardrawshark 3.2

      I don’t think they ever had a plan, they were struggling in opposition under Helen, Key came along offered them a win at any cost, say whatever i’ll get us back in power.

      They have just fluffed and played a time game, Even the double dipper said he didn’t have a clue early on.

      It’s been like that ever since.

    • Jenny Kirk 3.3

      + 100% trp.

      By the way, this poll wasn’t on TVNZ 1 News tonight. Odd ? But plenty about the Nats continuing to have NZ forces training up others to combat ISIS. Distraction politics ?

    • mickysavage 3.4

      I door knocked an ordinary street in West Auckland on Sunday and had a good chat to a number of people. A couple of takeaways:

      1. Everyone wanted to talk politics. This was most unusual.
      2. Everyone thought that the homeless crisis was appalling and they could not understand why the Government was not doing something about it.

      This Government is going to get skewered by its total indifference and by its cruel cynical politics in attacking beneficiaries. Suddenly all of us have a problem. The Government should be doing something and it is not.

      • lprent 3.4.1

        Coming to think of it, that is what I’ve been finding this year as well (at least when I have been around NZ).

        Non-political people are starting to discuss politics. That normally only happens in election year, and usually towards the second half of the year.

        Interesting

    • Mosa 3.5

      Only an alternative if LABOUR is polling in the 40s.
      Labour must!!! get its party share up.
      It doesn’t have much time if the Nats change leaders and call an early election!

      • Colonial Viper 3.5.1

        Very unlikely that Labour will break 30% on election day

      • Naki man 3.5.2

        What makes you think the Nats are going to change leaders.
        I think you are confused with Mr 7%.

        • Mosa 3.5.2.1

          Mr 7 % has caucus support.
          Key is compromised and despite public unity doesn’t.

          • Colonial Viper 3.5.2.1.1

            Bullshit mate. Little’s caucus support is a mile wide and an inch deep. The right wing faction and the careerist faction find it convenient to back him right now. He is not one of them.

            Key’s caucus support has to take into account the aspirations of the next generation of National leadership. Which is natural given that he has been National Party Leader for an entire decade, and his MPs know that sooner or later he will have to move on.

            • Mosa 3.5.2.1.1.1

              Yeah C V Labour has factions and have lost 3 elections in a row.
              Little has support through to the election next year and has enforced his authority with the caucus ahead of next year and have to work together if they want to reach government.
              Key is slowly bleeding support and Collins is ambitious and is tipped to have the inside running.
              The next long term leadership contenders have time on their side and even with a fourth term they can’t stay in indefinitely and will rejuvenate.

  4. Greg 4

    So far it hasnt been too cold, wait until it is and the power bills go up.
    Then the oldies that are called will change their tune.

    • Naki man 4.1

      Power prices are cheaper than they were a year ago and
      old people are pretty economical with electricity.
      So thats not going to happen.

  5. Takere 5

    Its GameOn! The Nat’s have far too much shit to push up that hill … 3rd termitis is too much for them. All the key elements are against them, the economies tanking, social issues are mounting, Goff will win Auckland, Global economic outlook too is betting against them and the environment doesn’t like them. Mataariki … seeds have been planted, lets hope.

  6. Colonial Viper 6

    Far, far too early to celebrate. National have not even begun to engage their election year strategies yet.

    What this poll indicates is that LAB/GR may be able to put a decent case to Winston to support them instead of National.

    • b waghorn 6.1

      Engage their election year dirty politics strategies.

      Fify

    • Richardrawshark 6.2

      Hmm I think they have been furiously dumping bad news CV, as usual pre election.

      Estimates will be wildly inaccurate come election time if they dump now.

    • Lanthanide 6.3

      We need to see a couple of polls of 45% L+G vs 40% for the nats before we can really get hopeful.

      • Colonial Viper 6.3.1

        Yep, party poppers are very premature at this point. If LAB/GR can pull ahead of NAT for a couple of polls, then they will have a good basis to go into election year with.

        Also, keep an eye on the global economic situation. I think its going into the shitter as we speak.

    • Chooky 6.4

      +100 CV

    • Mosa 6.5

      CV Labour has to be the largest party if it is to get the confidence of parliament and form a govt MOU or no MOU

      • Mosa 6.5.1

        If the Nats on election night are ahead and special votes aren’t needed they will get first crack at forming a government.
        Labour has to get direct appeal and inspire people to get out and support them.
        I just don’t see a watershed election happening like 1972 1984 1990 or 1999 when you could feel change was a real possibility
        At this stage the Tories have the support in the party vote, the trend had not changed.

        • Mosa 6.5.1.1

          And Muldoon’s 1975 dancing Cossacks election.

          • Colonial Viper 6.5.1.1.1

            Muldoon’s Super plan was better and more universal than Labour’s.

          • Chris 6.5.1.1.2

            Maybe Labour should do something similar but instead of dancing Cossacks there’s a series of graphics showing Key pulling ponytails and with every ponytail pull we see jobs increasing, warm homes springing up for everyone, people skipping out of hospitals all healthy and everyone and their families with a dollar in their pocket and big happy smiles on their faces? In a few years we’ll be saying “remember the 2017 election with all those little John Keys running around pulling ponytails?”

            • Kiwiri 6.5.1.1.2.1

              @ Chris

              LOL !

              Yeah, lots and lots of John Key’s magical solutions as ‘pop ups’ !

            • Anne 6.5.1.1.2.2

              A humorous but very biting campaign ad is a great idea. Not sure about the pony tails but there’s so much incompetency showing through now, Labour and the Greens are spoilt for choice. Imagine what could be created with a “pop up” economy.

              Edit: Kiwiri has beaten me to it. 🙂

    • AmaKiwi 6.6

      Colonial Viper

      “What this poll indicates is that LAB/GR may be able to put a decent case to Winston to support them instead of National.”

      Scientific studies do NOT support this view. It is called a “winning minimum coalition.” It means coalition governments consist of the minimum number of MPs needed to control parliament: 51%.

      Therefore the next coalition government will include the least number of MPs required to govern. Maths will determine the coalition, not your or my hopes and dreams.

      • Colonial Viper 6.6.1

        Has Winston read these scientific papers? Hopefully he has, or he might act in his own way, which is less deterministic than this.

        • AmaKiwi 6.6.1.1

          Winston’s no fool which is why he refuses to make any commitment about with whom he might partner.

          This political science was available when he was at university.

  7. weka 7

    It doesn’t appear that the MOU has done Labour any favours though, with its support slightly softening. The Greens strengthened 2.5%. Although both changes were within the margin of error.

    Perhaps it’s time to reframe this. Does it matter much how the ratio changes from poll to poll? Within .5% of National seems the more pertinent thing.

    • Sabine 7.1

      +1

    • Colonial Viper 7.2

      I am hesitant to take a more positive spin on the situation until LAB/GR actually overtake the NATs by 2% or 3%. Basically I think the NATs are approaching their pre-election year low now, but that they are going to bounce back as they start pushing into campaign mode.

      I would say that the NATs are probably irrecoverable history if the RM has the NATs going down to 40%.

      • weka 7.2.1

        I also think it is too early to get overly excited, although it’s a nice bit of motivation for the left. My comment was more about I think it’s time we started seeing the L/G bloc and were less concerned about the ratio of their numbers. I’m guessing it will jump around a fair bit, but in the end the important thing is that they get to be in government. It doesn’t matter too much to me how they share votes, more important is the votes that come from elsewhere.

      • billmurray 7.2.2

        CV, I am with you,
        I would go further and say 28% for Labour after the MOU is a black eye for Andrew Little and the Labour Party, delivered by the Kiwi battler.
        Not a knockout but Labour should be concerned.

        • Colonial Viper 7.2.2.1

          Some traditional LAB supporters I know did not like the MOU one bit. They considered it a crazy strategy.

          • Whateva next? 7.2.2.1.1

            Unfortunately there are not enough of those traditional Labour supporters to get Labour into government, so what do they suggest?entirely predictable response I am afraid, and very frustrating for those of us who are concerned about the damage being done to society’s infrastructure while the opposition are in the back rooms bickering. Hallelujah for cooperation at last, stop with the tribalism, we are mature enough to maintain party values and work together.

        • Mosa 7.2.2.2

          Excellent logic !!!

      • Hanswurst 7.2.3

        I don’t think the Nats have a natural pre-election-year low. Why should they? Such a low is reliant on a general lull in political newsworthiness until the election campaign gets swinging. True, they will have a bunch of strategies that they plan to get rolling out from some time closer to the election, but what recent months indicate is that politics is comparatively newsworthy, and the public has stopped responding in the required measure to the strategies that they have employed without fail over the last eight years. They also show that the government is beleaguered on various fronts, including house prices, homelessness, trade, fiscal responsibility and transparency. They have become intensely reactive and are finding it difficult to set the agenda.

        Assuming that the problems keep piling up, they may very well find that the strategies they have planned are not answering the questions that are being asked. In that case, they will have two options: shut their eyes and push their planned message or panic, throw their songsheet to the dogs and start putting out fires wherever they spring up. The latter is the only one that has a chance of working, but panicking also raises the risk of more stupid mistakes. Of course, if the stream of mis-steps and scandals dries up, they may get back on track.

        • Olwyn 7.2.3.1

          +100 Hanwurst – I think your comment here is spot on. Of the two options you outline in your last paragraph, I think Key will want to shut his eyes and press on with the program – he seems to view actually addressing the problems that plague ordinary citizens as tantamount to surrender. However, he may not be able to do that effectively if he cannot regain control of the agenda.

      • Puddleglum 7.2.4

        they are going to bounce back as they start pushing into campaign mode.

        In the Roy Morgan link is a graphic for the long term trend in polling going back to pre-2008. In the months prior to each election since then National’s support has declined from its previous polling as election day approaches.

  8. Richardrawshark 8

    Elevator going down…

    As I have always said, their stupid policies cause massive issues but it seems to take a while to blow up in their faces.

    • billmurray 8.1

      Richardrawshark, yes the elevator is going down for the Nats, but as a Labour person I also see the elevator going down for Labour, going up for the Greens. The script told us that both MOU parties would lift. The MOU has not done that, “Peter pays Paul” is not good enough to get rid of National.
      The Greens will be whooping, Labour will be pondering.

      • What script? I don’t recall anyone saying both parties would rise or that any rise would be equally shared.

        • billmurray 8.1.1.1

          te reo uptake, don’t you remember “both of us will be stronger together”, often echoed by the 3 leaders.
          I still say that Labour needs to seriously ponder the RM resuts, Labour have been around for a hundred years, the Greens for a few years. Labour must get the most out of the MOU or they will collapse.

          • Macro 8.1.1.1.1

            Labour have to show that they have left the neo-liberal agenda behind first before the “voters” who have given up voting will have any confidence to give them their vote again – and their half hearted response on the 90 day “fire at will” legislation is a case in point.

            • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.1.1

              Labour ain’t giving up their neo-lib agenda; there is not a single left wing socialist/democratic socialist/communist Sanders or Corbyn in that 32 member caucus.

              The right wing faction and the careerist faction are by far the two strongest factions in Labour today.

              Little by backing the TPP and by stating that Labour will always believe in free trade has doubled down on capitalism and neoliberalism as the future of NZ and the future of Labour.

          • te reo putake 8.1.1.1.2

            I don’t think that’s an actual quote and I don’t recall anything similar being said by the 3 leaders. And bear in mind I was there at the launch and even spoke to two of the three leaders after the event. My impression is that Labour and the Greens want to see the combined vote rise and minor changes in the individual party’s support don’t much worry them.

      • Richardrawshark 8.1.2

        I thought the MOU was a wrong move but have remained quiet trusting those in charge of labour. I also think any poll drop will be a short lived protest, I don’t think the sentiment will last and would like to see a couple more poll results to make any definitive conclusion.

      • weka 8.1.3

        They’ve only just signed the thing. I think it’s premature to be going off one or two polls. The point of doing the MoU this far out was so that they had time to build the relationship and demonstrated to NZ that they are a govt in waiting. They’re only just starting on that process.

        • Richardrawshark 8.1.3.1

          =Weka, yep that’s why I am ignoring Labours drop. It’s not going to be a shift to the right.

          The only thing I have noticed that’s important is Nationals drop, they had been steady for so long, 3 drops at least in a row and falling confidence in the direction NZ is heading. That’s the data mine out of it all I could see.

          And it’s not a trifling conclusion either.

          People don’t lose faith in the direction the country is heading when they are happy with who’s managing the course, so to speak IE, they realize just how fucked up nationals policies are. They believed the spin, they gave him a chance now they are drifting back, disappointed they believed the brighter future line and higher standards BS..

  9. Richardrawshark 9

    Interesting to look at the Roy Morgan poll, when we changed government to john Key 51% of people thought the country was heading in the right direction after key wins it quickly rises to around 70% in 2012 ish then has slowly declined, currently at 59% it recently dropped to 56.5 the lowest it’s been under him.

    Since 2012 as the country wised up to the smoke , mirrors and fog, of nationals gutsy feely neo lib american style nightmare ,the confidence in his direction has been consistently tracking downwards, I conclude this is a good sign and lets hope it continues.

  10. Kenya 10

    Oh FFS the Roy Morgan is bunk.

  11. Takere 11

    It is shaping up to be the kind of election you really wouldn’t want to win with the cupboards empty again. Massive amounts of debt racked up both Crown & private. Plummeting exporting revenues. A trade agreement that locks us into a War Pact with the US who will get it on with China, Russia & Syria and anyone else …. all at the same time whether Clinton or Trump wins. Unless Bernie can come up trumps with Clinton as a running mate or Warren? Clinton gets impeached?? Might be everyone’s preferred outcome?
    Key will take the job at the BoA. He’s had enough. It’ll be a bitch fight between Crusha Collins & Pullah Benefit! The boys haven’t got the cahones to get in the ring. Dildo Joyce has been grafting for his mates so he’ll be sweet and the boy from a little hick town where the sheep get to shelter in pens at night all year round, Blinglish will stay on cause he hasn’t got a clue of what to do in the real world.
    An early election I reckon when they realise the games up and nobody’s buying their bullshit anymore. The Nat’s have maxed out their vote, they might be able to pick the conservative vote if they don’t run again? Just need the middle-class to do what they do well…swing a little, 2%?
    Finga’s x’d

    • mauī 11.1

      As Nicole Foss and some other economic commentators have said when this thing tanks no matter how good the Government is they will still cop the majority of blame for it.

    • Richardrawshark 11.2

      It’s a matter of having too, we cannot continue down this divisive social and self destructive economic path. The longer it continues the harsher and longer it will take to reverse, the longer the social harm continues, the more damaged and hence more resources reversing that, will consume.

      I think it’s like a mid catastrophe, sooner we do it the better.

    • Jack Ramaka 11.3

      Hit the nail on the head.

    • Colonial Viper 11.4

      The cupboards aren’t bare. The NZ Govt can borrow another $150B easy without question.

      And the NZ public can equal that.

      Of course, it would be more sensible for the country to move to a Reserve Bank issued NZD funding policy instead of a borrowed NZD one.

    • Enough is Enough 11.5

      Takere – What the actual fuck?

      This is when a nation needs a good government. It is certainly not one you want to lose.

      Any muppet can govern when things are going well. It is when the cupboards are empty that the poor suffer and we need a strong socialist government.

  12. fisiani 12

    “The Greens strengthened 2.5%. Although both changes were within the margin of error.”
    So an apparent 2.5% drop for National is also well within the margin of error by a factor of at least 3. Do the maths!

    • Paul 12.1

      Says a man who defends a government that does not house its citizens.

    • Richardrawshark 12.2

      Nationals drop is more significant than a left spread.

      The confidence in the direction we are heading according to RM has been in decline since 2012 for national and it’s coalition, that’s a long term decline with the opposition gaining as a result. The hypes wearing off, your slogans and lies have had their time, the people are on to the likes of Hootens and ilks spin.

      Enjoy nationals remaining time, it won’t be long now Fisi sorry. Cycles dude, it’s inevitable.

  13. billmurray 13

    I would appreciate Swordfish’s comments on this matter.

  14. Incognito 14

    I dislike political polls but FWIW this poll started 4 days after Budget Day and despite the $3 billion tax cut bribe National dropped 2.5%!

  15. Jack Ramaka 15

    Most New Zealanders think NZ is going good as Bill and John have managed to get the country back into surplus after Labour got us so far into the shit.

    • Richardrawshark 15.1

      No. Most NZ’ers know that’s not true.

    • Colonial Viper 15.2

      A government surplus is roughly the worst possible thing, economically, for the nation.

      • Richardrawshark 15.2.1

        Elaborate CV?

        • Craig H 15.2.1.1

          A government surplus means the money comes out of the private sector, which typically means they borrow it, so we trade public ďebt for private debt.

          • Colonial Viper 15.2.1.1.1

            Yep, exactly. Or put another way:

            1) A government whose books are in the red is generally spending more money into the community than they are pulling taxes out of the community.

            2) A government whose books are in the black is generally pulling more tax money out of the community than they are spending into the community.

            I prefer to live in a country where I can increase my household savings because the government is taxing me less, while the government is spending more into my community,

            Compared to living in a country where the government is taking more of my savings via more taxes, and cutting back on spending in my community.

      • tricldrown 15.2.2

        So CV the budget night surplus has disappeared.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 15.3

      You have zero chance of understanding the answer to this question:

      In 2008, which New Zealand politician said “this is the rainy day the government has been saving up for”?

      The reason you have no chance of understanding it is that you’re a dupe.

      Alternatively, you do understand it, and therefore you’re a dupe and a liar.

      Which is it, stupid and dishonest, or just stupid?

      • Richardrawshark 15.3.1

        Bill did, A government surplus being good or bad is a point of view, and depends on the economic climate at the time, I was just asking why CV thought that, I am neither Dumb stupid or a dupe, but thanks for caring and sharing that part of your psyche.

        • Lanthanide 15.3.1.1

          OAB was replying to Jack, not you.

          You need to learn how commenting threads work here.

  16. Michael 16

    Labour’s support is right back to where it was on election day 2014 – it’s lowest ever since 1928. The hierarchy’s plan to get the Greens to drag Labour over the victory line in 2017 looks unlikely to work – because of Labour’s toxicity, not the Greens’ (their support went up). Perhaps Winston will get Grant Robertson and co into the Beehive next year instead? One thing’s for sure: the voters know that Labour stinks.

    • Colonial Viper 16.1

      Labour’s support is right back to where it was on election day 2014

      LAB is 28% in this poll, 3% higher than it got in the 2014 election.

      Please check your facts before spouting, next time.

      • Michael 16.1.1

        So they did. Mea culpa. Labour’s support since polling day 2014 has gone up by a whole three points, from 25 to 28 percent (thanks to Swordfish’s excellent table, which I’ve copied and pasted here). The Nats remain well ahead of Labour, which has not benefitted from the deal with the Greens. Neither have the Greens, I see, which leads me to infer that Labour remains politically toxic, Hanswurst. Based on the running aggregate of these numbers, I think the Nats are looking comfortable for a fourth term, in which they may or may not need to be propped up by Winston. FWIW, I think this is a revolting prospect, for which Labour has only itself to blame.

        Party/Bloc … 2014 ……………………….. 2015 ………………………….. 2016 …..
        ……………………4/4…………..1/4…….2/4……..3/4…….4/4………….1/4…….2/4

        Labour………..25…………….29………26………30………29…………..28…….28
        Green………….15…………….11………12………13………12…………..14…….14
        L+G……………..39…………….40………38………43………41…………..42…….42

        NZF……………..7……………….6…………7………..7………..6…………….7……..10
        Oppo…………..46……………..46……….46………50……..47…………..49…….52

        Nat……………..46……………..49………..50……..46………49…………..47…….44

        Nat/L+G……….7……………….9…………11………3………..8…………….6……….2

        Govt;……………49……………..51………..52……..48……….51…………50…….46
        Right…………….52…………….53………..53……..49………52…………..50………47

        O/G Lead ……..G 2…………. G 5……….G 6…….O 2…….G 4………….G 1……O 6

        O/R Lead ………R 5…………. R 7 …….. R 7 ……. O 1 ….. R 4 ………. R 1 ….O 5

        • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.1

          3 points is 4 MPs and enough to put National out of Government, particularly if National has lost 2-3 points as well.

          • tricldrown 16.1.1.1.1

            With Ohariu not a shoe in for the hair piece we have already see Dunne vote against the govt.

    • Hanswurst 16.2

      Surely, if Labour were toxic, the Greens would have lost support after doing a deal with them. Next time, please check your thought-processes before spouting.

    • ALH84001 16.3

      The mistake (by msm as well as commentors) is to treat Labour as a single party. The reality is that the Labour-Green bloc should be counted together, just as National is made up of (hidden) factions.

      So the real test is to see if Labour-Green rises or falls in contrast to National.

      As for NZ First, they are the real potential spoiler and we could see Winston supporting a fourth term for Key’s government. It’s happened before.

  17. Rae 17

    Watch out for Shane Jones coming back to contest Whangarei with NZF, to maybe supplant Ron Mark as deputy. After the last couple of years and having been given a nice cushy number by the Nats who would you think
    A) He would want NZF to go with
    B) Put him up to it in the first place

    I think there might be a whiff of more voter manipulation from the Nats. I suggest Labour organise themselves a VERY strong candidate for the Whangarei electorate and get him/her on the ground now.

    • JanM 17.1

      Northland has changed since the last election – now full of Auckland escapees – could alter the pattern of voting – immigrants are less likely to be sleepwalking and may not appreciate the finer points of the ‘good old boyos’ that have dominated the north for so long

      • Rae 17.1.1

        National have a history of manipulating voting, would be very foolish not to be prepared for this possibility.

  18. save nz 18

    The MoU has been positive – as a block they are up. One of Labour’s biggest problems in the past is flip flopping around without direction after they get negative news. This makes them easy to manipulate and leads to further voter loss when they over/under react.

    Labour and Greens have made a decision to partner up and they need to play it confidently and well to the end.

    One of the most interesting things is that National is down. Labour / Green only .5% behind and can gather a lot more momentum behind them.

    Bad news for the Natz is going to keep coming all year, as all their bad decisions come home to roost.

  19. Ad 19

    OMG, the Greens may actually get a seat in Australia! In the Inner Melbourne seat of Batman, the Labor candidate is getting pantsed:

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-poll-points-to-greens-batman-win-20160620-gpnb6y.html

    Can they keep it up through July?

  20. NoThanks 20

    National might have pissed off some people, but in an election people will judge whether the party of worth voting for based on personal interests rather than those sob stories by John Campbell.

    My friends are all lawyers, engineers, and finance people in their late 20’s and some are older in their 30’s.

    Despite that they have well-paying jobs, almost none of them are having children and among those who have children, they have got at most two instead of these sob stories which all of them have five or more children.

    The victimizers of those people who have no management skills nor education are themselves, not the society. John Campbell is a bleeding heart leftie who hates those who worked super hard and succeeded like John Key. #Respect

    “They’re casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first.” —- Thatcher

    “I didn’t do an engineering and finance conjoin degree to work in a stressful job while learning Python and R after work so that I can get to pay loads of tax for others’ mistakes.” —- NoThanks

    • Anne 20.1

      I do hope your lawyers, engineers and finance people friends have a better grasp of English grammar and comprehension than you are displaying. If they haven’t, then God help us.

      • Kiwiri 20.1.1

        Maybe gNatz are trialling their 90-second AI (not artificial intelligence but artificial idiocy) which they recently purchased from their overflowing coffers.

      • North 20.1.2

        Anne @ 20.1 it would not surprise me in the least if the rave from NoThanks is nought but fantastical snobbery………”My friends…….’all’ lawyer’s and engineers and finance people etc etc.”

        If I am wrong however then we have our very own Rush Limbaugh. A sociopath who sees human misery as a bunch of sob stories to be mocked and sneered at. A person we call an ‘arse-soul’

        • Anne 20.1.2.1

          NoThanks is nought but fantastical snobbery………”My friends…….’all’ lawyer’s and engineers and finance people etc etc.”

          Of course. They are probably acquaintances who occasionally give him/her the honour of allowing him/her to converse with them at the local pub or sports club. As an apparent semi-literate, I doubt he/she is one of them. If he/she is… then we’re in deep trouble.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 20.2

      Meanwhile, on Earth, your beloved IMF isn’t returning your calls anymore. Sob sob.

      Oh, and while I’m at it, why does the number of people who make poor choices (according to your witless delusional rote-learned gobshite) always increase when the National Party is in government?

      • save nz 20.2.1

        There seems plenty of money for Saudi and TPPA sell off roadshows. I guess corporates need taxpayer’s help more than citizens. That might be why they call it ‘free’ market.

        Next we will have another Granny article with Sky City corporates and oil execs crying into their hankies about being bullied like Paula Bennet, and how they need more cash from government…

    • Rae 20.3

      “No society”? You believe that? Really?
      How about “No man is an island”.

    • Colonial Viper 20.4

      Hi NoThanks,

      Did you know if you increase the education level of your population, and make more higher paying professional jobs available in the country, the birth rate will drop?

      A government could plan to do that for its people, you know.

      Instead of your stupid blaming bitching.

    • Richardrawshark 20.5

      -Nothanks, No idea what life is about or why your even here, good luck in your life, when you reach the end, remember everything you ever did or made will be but atoms in years to come. Your boasting about something that is completely vacuous.

      Oh and PS when you pay tax, it’s to enjoy the benefits of life, you focused only on the negatives of paying tax ignoring all the positives, and too boot the negatives you have are blown out of proportion to the truth by media and spin merchants to make you confirm your prejudicial and judgemental conclusion.

      When most people hear what you said, they say the same thing, here’s another bloke who’s hooked on the spin as it suits his misconceptions, he’s sort of right but blames everything on the few.

      Like business owners, some exploit and are complete scum rip wholesalers off, don’t pay tax, I don’t go around going ALL business owners are scumbag arseholes and my taxes are bailing them out.

      But thanks anyways for sharing your thoughts, sad as I think they are.

    • Anno1701 20.6

      ““I didn’t do an engineering and finance conjoin degree to work in a stressful job while learning Python and R after work so that I can get to pay loads of tax for others’ mistakes.” —- NoThanks”

      im sure thats going to bring you loads of joy when your sitting in a rest home one day lonely & sad trying to get some convo out of the staff ( who really cant give 2 shits about another old lonely man who no-one ever visits rabbiting on about how successful he WAS ) thinking to yourself ” f#*k the double degree i should have actually done something meaningful with my life & had kids”

      enjoy the soup for one !

  21. upnorth 21

    So sad that Lab/Green combo is now the talk…Labour is crashing and burning badly. There is no way Labour can ever get to 40% outright under Little.

    This combining of 2 parties is a waste of time and trying to fine a silver lining. Little and the unions have created havoc in Labour.

    • save nz 21.1

      @upnorth – crashing so hard they are now within .5 of National.

      So nice you have a crystal ball of forecasting about Labour not getting 40%, pity Nat lovers could not forecast that milk prices were a commodity going up and down or that people would be living in tents under their policies.

      • Colonial Viper 21.1.1

        Labour is not going to get 40%. They are not going to get 35%. On a very very lucky day they might scrape up to 30%.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 21.2

      Thanks for your concern.

      The unemployment rate in 2007 was ~3%. Now it’s ~6%. Homelessness has increased by at least an order of magnitude.

      How do you account for that massive increase in poor choices? It looks like the policies that dribble down your chin ended up all over your nice clothes.

  22. swordfish 22

    Comment Numero Uno

    So now we have 4 consecutive Roy Morgans placing the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt Bloc. Or, to put it another way, NZF has theoretically held the balance of power for 4 RMs in a row.

    That’s an unprecedented situation in the context of the post-2014 Election period.

    Here are all of the Roy Morgans since the Sep 2014 General Election in terms of the percentage point lead enjoyed by either the Govt or Oppo:

    Bold = Oppo Lead
    Normal Typeface = Govt Lead
    (all figures rounded for simplicity)
    (IMP included in Oppo Bloc – although this generally makes no difference – given such low support for the Party)

    2014 Election …. Govt by 3 points

    Roy Morgan Polls
    2014
    Oct ………… Oppo by 1 point
    Nov …………Govt by 5
    Dec …………Govt by 3

    2015
    Jan …………..Govt by 12
    Feb ………….Govt by 2
    March ……..Govt by 2
    April ………..Oppo by 1
    May ………..Govt by 14
    June ………..Govt by 6
    July ………….Oppo by 7
    Aug …………Govt by 6
    Sep …………Oppo by 5
    Oct …………Govt by 3
    Nov ………..Govt by 4
    Dec ………..Govt by 4

    2016
    Jan …………Govt by 3
    Feb ………..Govt by 2
    March ……Oppo by 4
    April ………Oppo by 8
    May ……….Oppo by 3
    June ……….Oppo by 7

    Before March this year, fully three-quarters of the Roy Morgan polls favoured the Govt Bloc and the Oppo were never ahead in consecutive polls.

  23. swordfish 23

    Comment Numero Due

    Taking a broader look at trends in the Roy Morgans on a Quarterly basis since the 2014 General Election:

    L+G = Labour + Green
    Oppo = Opposition Bloc (excludes IMP/Mana)
    Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over combined Labour/Green
    Govt = Govt Bloc
    Right = Govt Bloc + Cons
    O/G = percentage point lead for Govt or Oppo
    O/R = percentage point lead for Right or Oppo

    (Figures rounded for simplicity. In some cases, rounding means stats may not appear to add up – eg final quarter of 2014 rounded figures have Lab 25, Green 15 = 40% – but precise figure is 39. Similarly, 2/4 of 2015 rounded figures – L+G 38, Nat 50 suggest 12 point gap, but precise figures suggest 11 point margin etc)

    Party/Bloc … 2014 ……………………….. 2015 ………………………….. 2016 …..
    ……………………4/4…………..1/4…….2/4……..3/4…….4/4………….1/4…….2/4

    Labour………..25…………….29………26………30………29…………..28…….28
    Green………….15…………….11………12………13………12…………..14…….14
    L+G……………..39…………….40………38………43………41…………..42…….42

    NZF……………..7……………….6…………7………..7………..6…………….7……..10
    Oppo…………..46……………..46……….46………50……..47…………..49…….52

    Nat……………..46……………..49………..50……..46………49…………..47…….44

    Nat/L+G……….7……………….9…………11………3………..8…………….6……….2

    Govt;……………49……………..51………..52……..48……….51…………50…….46
    Right…………….52…………….53………..53……..49………52…………..50………47

    O/G Lead ……..G 2…………. G 5……….G 6…….O 2…….G 4………….G 1……O 6

    O/R Lead ………R 5…………. R 7 …….. R 7 ……. O 1 ….. R 4 ………. R 1 ….O 5

    After reaching an initial apex during the third quarter of 2015, the Opposition have now experienced an even greater surge – though, as you can see, largely on the back of what is almost certainly a significant Nat-to-NZF swing (putting aside the more complex array of swings and counter-swings that always go on under the surface of the net flow of support) .

    • swordfish 23.1

      Dang ! Just needed another 5 minutes of editing time to get that table truly ship-shape. Improved it a bit but still looking a little messy.

      • Pasupial 23.1.1

        Swordfish

        Thanks a lot for your contributions. I find polls a lot more credible as trends over time rather than single snapshots. Perhaps if you crafted your comment in a word processor and then cut&pasted it over you would do better with the formatting (or maybe even post a spreadsheet image in a guest post)? I think it is legible enough, though with the double spacing, it is a bit hard to get all the numbers on screen at once. BTW, what is the name of your website again? My old comp fried a while back and I don’t have it bookmarked on my new browser.

        However you did miss out one important set of numbers; Nat + NZF, which I make:

        ………………….2014… 2015…………………………….. 2016
        Nat + NZF….. 53…… 55……. 57….. 53…… 55….. 54……54

    • McFlock 23.2

      Yep.

      My impression is that the nats have shot themselves in the foot by treating their rural supporters with contempt and viewing their only vote-leak as being to the floating voters moving more towards the center.

      Now NZ1 is solidly entrenched with social conservatives and rural folk.This makes the nats look weaker, which lends legitimacy to Lag/grn.

      • fisiani 23.2.1

        My impression is that National’s share of the vote has not moved at all. Just the usual fluctuation. This is the Roy Morgan poll after all and every green shoot of hope is soon followed by the false dawn. Watch as the Labour poll sinks lower and lower from the current 28%. Labour + Greens will not reach 50%. Winston will never play third fiddle. The deckchairs are being rearranged but the Lab/Green titanic is still sinking.

        • Pasupial 23.2.1.1

          fisiani

          You are evidently not very good at understanding numbers (or anything that contradicts your prejudices for that matter). The nominal Margin of Error is just over 3%, so National rising from 46 to 50% between the end of 2014 the mid 2015 is statistically significant. Also significant is National’s fall from that height the following quarter, and their fall from 49% to 44% between the end of 2015 and now.

          If I am wrong in this, please specify exactly what your nebulous term of; “the usual fluctuation”, might actually mean.

          • McFlock 23.2.1.1.1

            please specify exactly what your nebulous term of; “the usual fluctuation”, might actually mean

            that’s the slight quaver in his voice as his haw-hawing becomes more desperate…

          • fisiani 23.2.1.1.2

            The margin of error is over 3% thus National could be on over 46%. Normal service results will appear soon. I never cease to be amazed by how a trivial change in a single poll is greeted with triumphalism yet every contrary poll is apparently a rogue poll. When Right direction is a massive 120 there is no general mood for change. If the economy improves people veer to the comfort of National. If the economy worsens people veer to the safety of National.

            • McFlock 23.2.1.1.2.1

              hmmm.
              and yet when they were on 50% then the lowest they could have had at 3% margin for error was 47%.

              If we take your best possible abuse of the term “margin of error”, that’s a 1% decrease for national. If we take your worst probably case, that’s 53% down to 40%.

              Keep rolling yourself in glitter, haw-haw

              • North

                “Keep rolling yourself in glitter, haw-haw”. Brilliant McFlock. Have a mind’s eye picture of a painfully extruded malodorous stool called Fisiani, smearing up its keyboard.

            • Richardrawshark 23.2.1.1.2.2

              LMFAO, if your not bothered why did you post?

              Regardless of the party poll, the biggest indicator your starting to look like shit too the public of NZ is their answers to do you think NZ is heading in the right direction. Pollers are dropping like flies on that and have been since 2012, you can’t gloss up what’s happening to your policies and the effects they are having, can you?

            • Colonial Viper 23.2.1.1.2.3

              The margin of error is over 3% thus National could be on over 46%.

              National’s 6 month moving average in the Roy Morgan is 45.4%

              A year ago it was 49.4%

              So they’ve definitely lost support over the last 12 months. Equivalent to losing 5 MPs.

              Can LAB and GR capitalise on this change though, and come up with some really gutsy policy. Or are we going to see more play it safe middle of the road, non-committal stuff.

        • McFlock 23.2.1.2

          Yes dear.

        • ALH84001 23.2.1.3

          Fisiani, the Roy Morgan poll is the one to watch. Remember that it’s the only (?) polling company that calls cellphones as well as landlines, so in that respect they are more credible than pollsters who have the Nats at stratospheric heights like 52%, 55%, and other BS.

          “Watch as the Labour poll sinks lower and lower from the current 28%. ”

          Well, as they say; Watch This Space!

  24. Anno1701 24

    ” If the economy improves people veer to the comfort of National. If the economy worsens people veer to the safety of National.”

    heres to a glorious reign of 1000 years !

    hang on that sounds familiar ?

  25. Don't worry. Be happy 25

    Have, for the first time ever, participated in two landline polls in last month….this RM and another one. Forget who sorry, but same focus….who would you vote for and what does the future look like for you type questions. Both oddly I thought, wanted at the end of all the the questions to know my opinion of the All Blacks and if I was a fan.

    • Richardrawshark 25.1

      All black watchers must be Nat supporters or a high percentage? a question to narrow down your political leanings?

      • Gangnam Style 25.1.1

        What is rugby but 2 teams of big bullies trying to out bully each other.

  26. Awaiting the next poll to see if it confirms the trend, but I share CV’s view of the situation, and others who’ve made similar comments.

    The 2% shift of centrists away from the Nats means they lose Ak Central & Ohariu. Key can’t form a govt, even with Seymour and the Maori Party retaining 2 seats. Sensing the zeitgeist, folk are reacting against a government out of touch with the world around them, but the MoU is merely the faint flicker of a beacon of hope to them so far.

    Farrar posted the RM poll without any comment other than Greens up, Nat/Lab down. Within the margin of error, so the anti-establishment shift indicated may be illusory. Farrar’s respondents were mostly clueless as usual but some were more thoughtful, speculating on how Peters will exploit the inevitable opportunity. I can’t see him giving Key a 4th term as PM, nor the Nats offering him what he believes he deserves. If I were with the right, I’d be thinking wtf do we do now (if I were with the left, I’d expect my comrades to fall into the complacency trap, as usual).

    • Anne 26.1

      Agree with your summation Dennis Frank but I am hopeful the MoU proves to be more than a flicker of hope. It was never going to be swift game changer but – if L&G play their cards right – it’s polling rates should slowly improve as we approach the 2017 election. I am in no doubt this govt. will have no compunction about deliberately creating a crisis so they can call an early election. L&G need to be prepared for an election next winter.

      (if I were with the left, I’d expect my comrades to fall into the complacency trap, as usual).

      I’m an L.P. member but I’m looking to the Greens to ensure it doesn’t happen.

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    Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Greens’ transparency missing in action
    For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus with six newsey things at 6:46am for Saturday, March 16
    TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ Herald Thomas Coughlan Simeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • How Did FTX Crash?
    What seemed a booming success a couple of years ago has collapsed into fraud convictions.I looked at the crash of FTX (short for ‘Futures Exchange’) in November 2022 to see whether it would impact on the financial system as a whole. Fortunately there was barely a ripple, probably because it ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Elections in Russia and Ukraine
    Anybody following the situation in Ukraine and Russia would probably have been amused by a recent Tweet on X NATO seems to be putting in an awful lot of effort to influence what is, at least according to them, a sham election in an autocracy.When do the Ukrainians go to ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s six stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15
    TL;DR: Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it:  We want our country to be a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • National’s clean car tax advances
    The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Government funding bailouts
    Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Two offenders, different treatments.
    See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Treaty references omitted
    Ele Ludemann writes  – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The Ghahraman Conflict
    What was that judge thinking? Peter Williams writes –  That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 15
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop: Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
    Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
    It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • That Word.
    Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
    It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
    Open access notables A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in ...
    5 days ago
  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
     Buzz from the Beehive   The text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary.  It can be quickly analysed ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The return of Muldoon
    For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
    Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    5 days ago
  • Racism’s double standards
    Questions need to be asked on both sides of the world Peter Williams writes –   The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • It’s not a tax break
    Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
    I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
    Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
    How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
    5 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop: The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
    5 days ago
  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
    The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
    Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago
  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
    The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
    6 days ago
  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
    Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why Newshub failed
    Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • There’s a name for this
    Every year, in the Budget, Parliament forks out money to government agencies to do certain things. And every year, as part of the annual review cycle, those agencies are meant to report on whether they have done the things Parliament gave them that money for. Agencies which consistently fail to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Echoes of 1968 in 2024?  Pocock on the repetitive problems of the New Left
    Mike Grimshaw writes – Recent events in American universities point to an underlying crisis of coherent thinking, an issue that increasingly affects the progressive left across the Western world. This of course is nothing new as anyone who can either remember or has read of the late ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Two bar blues
    The thing about life’s little victories is that they can be followed by a defeat.Reader Darryl told me on Monday night:Test again Dave. My “head cold” last week became COVID within 24 hours, and is still with me. I hear the new variants take a bit longer to show up ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 13
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Angus Deaton on rethinking his economics IMFLocal scoop: The people behind Tamarind, the firm that left a $500m cleanup bill for taxpayers at Taranaki’s Tui oil well, are back operating in Taranaki under a different company name. Jonathan ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
    New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
    Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
    ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland  Acknowledgements and opening  Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho.  Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau  My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
    Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024  Acknowledgements and opening  Morena, Nga Mihi Nui.  Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau  Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country.   “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week.  “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
    The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee.  “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government delivering on tax commitments
    Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today.  “The Amendment Paper represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
    Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
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    5 days ago
  • Government classifies drought conditions in Top of the South as medium-scale adverse event
    Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
    The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced.  “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level.   “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
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    6 days ago
  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
    Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
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    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
    Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024.  “Lower fruit and vege ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
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    6 days ago
  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government backs rural led catchment projects
    The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
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    6 days ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction.   Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
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    7 days ago
  • Commission’s advice on ETS settings tabled
    Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
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    1 week ago
  • Government lowering building costs
    The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Trustee tax change welcomed
    Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister’s Ramadan message
    Assalaamu alaikum. السَّلَام عليكم In light of the holy month of Ramadan, I want to extend my warmest wishes to our Muslim community in New Zealand. Ramadan is a time for spiritual reflection, renewed devotion, perseverance, generosity, and forgiveness.  It’s a time to strengthen our bonds and appreciate the diversity ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister appoints new NZTA Chair
    Former Transport Minister and CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber Hon Simon Bridges has been appointed as the new Board Chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) for a three-year term, Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced today. “Simon brings extensive experience and knowledge in transport policy and governance to the role. He will ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to Life Sciences Summit
    Good morning all, it is a pleasure to be here as Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology.  It is fantastic to see how connected and collaborative the life science and biotechnology industry is here in New Zealand. I would like to thank BioTechNZ and NZTech for the invitation to address ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Progress continues apace on water storage
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says he is looking forward to the day when three key water projects in Northland are up and running, unlocking the full potential of land in the region. Mr Jones attended a community event at the site of the Otawere reservoir near Kerikeri on Friday. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government agrees to restore interest deductions
    Associate Finance Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government has agreed to restore deductibility for mortgage interest on residential investment properties. “Help is on the way for landlords and renters alike. The Government’s restoration of interest deductibility will ease pressure on rents and simplify the tax code,” says ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Minister to attend World Anti-Doping Agency Symposium
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