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Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 12:06 pm, May 12th, 2008 - 36 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

There was a new Roy Morgan poll out on Friday. No major changes – Labour continues to hover around the mid-30s and National around 50. The minor parties are still all over the place and New Zealand First remains a wildcard.

Interestingly Roy Morgan also reported results for Auckland vs the rest of the country this time. In Auckland the gap between the two major parties is 19 points compared to 11.5 for the rest of the country. However given the lower sample size these figures should be treated with caution.

36 comments on “Roy Morgan”

  1. higherstandard 1

    Don’t worry Judith Tizzard will save Auckland for Labour……… sorry couldn’t resist !

  2. mike 2

    damn you beat me to it..

  3. higherstandard 3

    As an aside I find the polls are pretty meaningless perhaps in future looking at the trends over a two to three year period would be interesting ?

  4. James Kearney 4

    Ah, HS was being ironic because he realised the joke was stupid. Mike, you’re just stupid.

  5. AncientGeek 5

    hs: there is a pretty good graph in the Morgan poll.

    DPF does a reasonably good composite poll e-mail PDF from curia monthly. I take the commentary with a vial of salt, but it pulls the polls together.

    I seem to remember seeing a link on kiwiblog to subscribe to it.

  6. mike 6

    Diddums JK, personal attack hasn’t worked for labour either.

    On the poll, Nationals ‘soft’ support seems to firming up a bit wouldn’t you say.

  7. higherstandard 7

    Ta AG

    Think I’ll just wait to the day after the election probably easier in the long run.

  8. I laugh when I see the media reporting polling numbers jumping around within margins of error as if there’s some actual change happening.

    the pattern remains what is has been since National reached it’s zenith at the start of the year and Labour started coming off it’s nadir – National high 40s to early 50s, Labour mid to late 30s, Greens above 5%, NZF close to but below 5%, others.

  9. Mike you lazy prick – get back to work.

    [lprent: Sigh – I’m sure there is a better way to react to that kind of comment. At least mike said something on topic]

  10. AncientGeek 10

    Think I’ll just wait to the day after the election

    That is my general view – there is only one poll that counts when it comes to voting. I sort of mix the polls in with canvassing, conversations, and everything else to get an idea of what is going on.

    But I’m always strongly aware of what the electoral commission polls show. The vast majority of people aren’t political junkies. That is what canvassing shows and conversations tell me.

    I ran across a couple of people the other day at work. They spent 10 minutes figuring out that we have an election every three years. They thought it was 4 years. This was after revving me up about Labour and tax cuts. They weren’t aware that neither the Nats or Labour had put out policy on what they would do this election.

  11. Definitely looking like I should book a one way ticket to Australia. Come election day it’s looking like we’ll be looking at 3 more years of Labour/Greens/Maori. National don’t seem to get MMP.

    However things may be looking up for National with this other Roy Morgan poll that I’m surprised you haven’t linked to: chart roy morgan consumer confidence

    [lprent: Fixed link to readable.
    I have to do something about the long links. They wrap in IE7 and Safari, but go over everything on the right sidebar in firefox. Digs out the css book]

  12. Felix 13

    lprent did you say book?

  13. lprent 14

    Yep – first reference because I’ve read the thing several times and I know where to find things in it.

    Then I head to the web afterwards to find the limitations, gotcha’s, and alternate approaches. Google is great, but it is often easier if you know the words you’re hunting for in the first place.

    It isn’t like c++ where I work normally and I hold the syntax, standard libraries, large chunks of the system API’s for posix and Win32, and the STL in my wetware

  14. r0b 15

    lprent did you say book?

    It’s a primitive write once read only tablet style document viewer. very high resolution. They used to be quite popular. You really should try them…

  15. Anyone tried IE 8 beta? It breaks everything.

  16. lprent 17

    Ok that did it. Couldn’t do it with css. But I filtered it to add in the non-standard <wbr> after punctuation /.-:

    I suppose I’d better back on to what I was working on

  17. lprent 18

    maw: all I can say is mickeysoft, mickeysoft and mickeysoft.

    If I’m lucky – it probably is just conformant and doesn’t support some of the old hacks that they plugged into previous browsers.

    When I do sites (mainly web applications) these days I write with firefox which gets me pretty much everything apart from IE. Then I write hacks for the antique trident engine that IE uses.

  18. lprent 19

    maw: how badly does it break this site?

  19. Ari 20

    If Winston got Tauranga with results like these, that’d probably mean a fourth Labour term. It’s interesting how close it is though- if you count NZF out like Roy Morgan did, then Act and National are only three seats up, which is a very tenuous position to be when it comes to conscience votes.

  20. outofbed 21

    I think that it in labours interest that Peters does not win Tauranga
    In fact Labour voters in Tauranga should probably vote for the Nat candidate

  21. mike 22

    “if you count NZF out like Roy Morgan did, then Act and National are only three seats up”

    I make it 6 seats on this poll, but why are you assuming Maori will go will Labour?
    Its a 50/50 call. Turiana likes Clark less than Key.

  22. Felix 23

    I don’t think it’s ever been safe to assume that the Maori Party will go with Labour, but it seems highly unlikely that they could ever support a National government given their consultation-based approach and the traditional patterns of Maori voters.

    I’ve always read their tacit potential support for the Nats as jockeying for position rather than any serious desire to get in bed with them.

    As we’ve seen though, nothing is certain in MMP until the deal is done.

  23. Wouldn’t it be electoral suicide for National to go into coalition with the Maori party?

  24. lprent: have uploaded a screenshot of thestandard.org.nz viewed in IE8 here http://www.flickr.com/photos/mawgxxxxiv/

    [lprent: Thanks – I’ll have a look at it after work.]

  25. TomS 26

    I just plugged the numbers into the electoral commission website seat calculator, but assumed ACT didn’t win Epsom and the Maori Party won all seven seats and it comes to Nat+United 64 Lab+Green+Prog+Maori 61 in a 125 seat parliament. So really, its neck and neck with the left needing to claw back 2% to win.

  26. Phil 27

    Sure, assume ACT doesn’t win Epsom… what planet are you on?

    More broadly on the Maori party;
    I have always contended that they will side with Labour if a workable arrangement is possible, presumably with the Greens too.
    However, if an arrangement cannot be reached – and polling trends indicate that it probably isn’t achievable – it is entirely logical that they would seek to have influence as part of a National government.

  27. TomS 28

    What planet? Well I know four Epsom voters who voted Rodney last election who are sick and tired of having an absentee mid-life crisis as an MP and will vote National this time. The only thing that may save Rodney’s neck is the the fact that the Natiaonal party’s absentee aristocrat candidate is equally appalling.

    Fancy one of the richest, “smartest” electorates in NZ having such a poor choice.

  28. lprent 29

    mawgxxxxvi: Looks good in IE8 from what I could see, I can’t see any major defects. WordPress codes very very close to the standard‘s :)

    I’ll try it out on a machine here sometime this week.

  29. lprent: yes WordPress blogs look fine in IE8. I tried uploading to YouTube in IE8 today and it all fell apart when I tried setting the video date and map location. I had to revert to IE7 emulation mode. I generally stay away from IE 7 and mostly use Flock: the socialist… I mean social browser :-)

  30. lprent 31

    Haven’t tried flock. I’m well known for being devoutly anti-social.

    So many toys to write and/or play around with and so little time. Besides people are simple. All you have to do is figure out the rationalizations they’re using to hide from themselves today. But I’m a bit cynical and have over developed wetware about people.

    Anyway, there is a new search engine on the site now. It caused a massive slow down in the site while it indexed everything. It should make rOb happy. I’ll tweak the parameters when I get a bit of time. And I need to do a paypal to the writer so I can legitimately turn off his little kitten message.

    All I can say is that he obviously hasn’t looked closely at cats. For a good cynical look at cats I’d recommend Terry Pratchett’s book about Real Cats.

    Ummm I wonder what the extra couple of tables will do the backup size. I’ll have a look at the 2400 backup when it runs.

  31. r0b 32

    Oh! Search unleashed – shiny toys! Happy happy :-)

  32. lprent 33

    I’ll run another reindex before I hit the sack with better params. It takes a while to run. But I’m happy with its runtime performance as comments are added. No great overhead

  33. r0b 34

    Lynn – looks nice, a few glitches? Viewing with Safari 3.0.4.

    If you type in the search box it does its “working spin” icon for a bit, then often comes up with Not Found. But press return and it re loads the page (with search terms in the url) and finds many results. In this case if there is more than one page of results the link to “older” at the top of the page fails (brings up a Not Found page again)…

  34. lprent 35

    It is an ajax system, and it is a bit sensitive about when you’ve stopped typing.

    I’ll have a look at the javascript and make it less sensitive

  35. r0b 36

    I wondered if the first issue was related to the two Search Modes described on the search unleashed page. And that still leaves the second issue – the “older” link doesn’t work.

    “The caveat of fulltext searching is that it only applies to whole words longer than four characters” – hah! – that’ll learn me for choosing r0b!

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