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Roy Morgan bounces left

Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, polls - Tags: ,

Not the usual Roy Morgan post on a poll, but this summary of recent polls contains previously unpublished data to August 11.

National 44 (down 7)
Labour 34 (up 5)
Greens 14 (up 4)
No significant changes in the other parties

Roy Morgan is an erratic poll, so the previous one (which had National on 51%) was probably an outlier. No one on the Left will be breaking out the champagne yet, but it’s good to see a return to the trend of late for the Left bloc to be clearly ahead of National.

76 comments on “Roy Morgan bounces left”

  1. tracey 1

    I dont get excited Bout polls. Rightly or wrongly I believe they are only as good as therson writing the questions.

  2. Melb 2

    Maybe this poll is the outlier.

    • Akldnut 2.1

      You obviously haven’t had a look at the summary or you wouldn’t have made a stupid comment like that, or maybe you did and would have still said it anyways.

    • lprent 2.2

      All local political polls are highly erratic. Small sample sizes, suspect population sampling, etc. The Roy Morgan happens frequently enough (about every two weeks), so you can see it. You can see the underlying trends as well.

      Read the numbers.

  3. amirite 3

    The teflon is starting to wear out, it seems.

  4. hush minx 4

    Two thoughts occur to me – labor is back to where it was in 2008. Good but not good enough. Low 40s is where we need to be, so let this just be a step on the journey. Two, is labour really ready to deal with the greens at almost half their vote? Look how they treated Catherine Delahunty’s bill and you’d say probably not.

    • Jackal 4.1

      Firstly, the fact that Labour is back to 34% while the Green’s have increased by 7.3% to 14% means your comment is largely irrelevant hush minx. On the current numbers Labour would form the next Government with the Greens. Secondly, Catherine Delahunty has had four bills so which one are you talking about exactly? Clearly the Greens and Labour can work constructively together. Labour does not need to “deal with the greens” at all.

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        1/3 Greens Cabinet is going to be a very interesting phenomenon.

      • George D 4.1.2

        What Hush Minx is referring to was a bill that would have withdrawn the ability of the creators of otherwise illegal water pollution to claim exceptional circumstances in perpetuity. Instead, they would have had five years to phase out their pollution. It’s aimed squarely at the Kawerau mill and particular mine sites, but had the support of unions and iwi. It’s hardly unreasonable.

        http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/217021/greens-take-whack-at-labour-over-environment

        We can only speculate as to what the motives of Shearer and his Tight Five were.

        • Jackal 4.1.2.1

          Clearly the Labour members on the committee saying that the black drain bill proposed a too “short a consent time for useful investment” doesn’t preclude them from working with the Greens in government, which seems to be what Hush Minx was arguing.

          Keep in mind that the select committee had a National majority anyway. It’s membership included: Nicky Wagner (Chairperson), Maggie Barry, Jacqui Dean, Paul Goldsmith, Claudette Hauiti, Phil Heatley, Gareth Hughes (replaced by Catherine Delahunty), Raymond Huo, Moana Mackey, Eugenie Sage, Maryan Street and Andrew Williams.

          Granted, Labour not supporting Catherine Delahunty’s bill through the committee stage was stupid, but the issue here is that the bill would essentially mean a huge investment that the owners are unlikely to make or the closure of the Kawarau mill. Labour’s committee members have unfortunately chosen jobs over people’s health and the environment.

          However the committee doesn’t include David Shearer or his so-called tight five does it?

          • bad12 4.1.2.1.1

            Yes Kawarau and Kinlieth, the latter pouring 1000’s of liters of black water daily into the Waikato River which Aucklander’s later go on to drink are two of the larger thorn’s which will have to be addressed at some point in the future,

            The equation being Jobs V enviromental destruction, the question then being what is the commercial viability of both Kawarau and Kinlieth into the future,

            National having set the precedent with it’s 30 million bailout of the Tiwai Point Smelter dare i suggest that the next Labour/Green/Mana Government need look to putting up the monies necessary to ‘fully treat’ the waste water from both these ‘mills’ befor it is allowed to be discharged into our waterways,

            What’s the real cost of doing this, 100-200 million, small change when considered against the wasted resources being poured into roads of No Significance by the present Government. we cannot claim ‘clean green’ status unless we are willing to make it so…

            • grumpy 4.1.2.1.1.1

              A future Labour Greens government would be very interesting and throw up a lot of deals being done by Labour with National, just to keep the country going.

              The question will be – how would the Greens react to that?

              • Draco T Bastard

                throw up a lot of deals being done by Labour with National

                I hope so, it would be the fastest way possible for Labour to become a minor party.

                just to keep the country going.

                Except that it won’t. All it would do would be to enrich the already rich and make a lot of people even poorer – just as the neo-liberal paradigm has done over the last few decades.

            • Jackal 4.1.2.1.1.2

              Attn mods, you might want to move this discussion into open mike?

              bad12

              …dare i suggest that the next Labour/Green/Mana Government need look to putting up the monies necessary to ‘fully treat’ the waste water from both these ‘mills’ befor it is allowed to be discharged into our waterways,

              What’s the real cost of doing this, 100-200 million,

              Unfortunately there are no quick fixes here, being that the dangerous chemicals in the bleaching process are all difficult to remove from the vast amounts of water pulp and paper mills use. In fact there is no way to ‘fully treat’ such waste that I’m aware of and the mutagenic and genotoxic compounds in such discharge aren’t going away anytime soon.

              Kinleith Mill has a consent allowing for wastewater of up to 165000 m3 per day, of which it was originally expected that up to 155000m3/d may be discharged to the Kopakorahi Stream and 10000 m3/d to the Waituna Stream. NZ is currently receiving around 10c for every tonne of waste Kinleith produces. However the cost to clean up a tonne of toxic waste would easily exceed this minuscule reimbursement.

              With an estimated total of 10,060,000 tonnes of effluent discharge from pulp and paper mills into NZ waterways each year, I think your estimate of $100 to 200 million all up is on the very low side. I would suggest that $100 to $200 million would be the per anum cost and that’s before we even look at cleaning up any historic contamination. Unfortunately that cost would make many if not all of these outdated operations financially unviable.

              we cannot claim ‘clean green’ status unless we are willing to make it so…

              I totally agree, which is why we should stop such obviously false advertising.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    Dollars to donuts National’s incessant polling picked up the same trend as this poll. It would explain Key’s sudden decision to appear on Campbell live and to try and take personal control of the agenda of the GCSB debate.

  6. Sable 6

    I don’t trust polls that use small samples but I do hope based on the Campbell Live spy law poll that people are smart enough to see through National and give them bums rush this election.

  7. Colonial Viper 7

    As I said to McFlock when the 29% poll came out – this is just further proof that Labour is bouncing around a ~32%-33% true support level. You can expect some poll results dotted around there, some around 30% and some around 35%.

    What would really help with judging the Roy Morgan – knowing the % of undecideds. It is annoying that they don’t reveal that and it is a crucial figure.

    The prospect of a Government with 1/3 Green Ministers looks good eh?

    Looks like a lot of ABCs won’t even get a look into Cabinet because the seats will be taken by the Greens.

    • bad12 7.1

      i tend to agree with you on the size of the Labour core vote, we have to remember that as the Party’s to the right and beside National in the center have polled less to the point of non-existence on a regular basis it will be more likely National with the poster boy of the moment as Prime Minister who are judged to have ‘picked up’ most of that vote,

      Duck,dive and dodge has not worked for National over the GCSB and we can well imagine some serious head scratching going on amidst the denizens of the Beehives 9th floor as what seemed to them as a simple rejigging of Legislation to make the illegal legal as far as spying on it’s citizens goes has turned into the cluster-f**k of monumental proportions,

      It’s not as if that making of the illegal legal with a quick piece of Legislative or Regulatory change is anything new to this lot who’s silver spoons barely quiver when They are caught out reaching beyond the Law with their actions and intentions,

      If the GCSB legislation, as i believe it will, is to be the defining moment, the high tide mark for this particular abysmal government then we will see a far more critical mass media,(excepting the Herald and other fixated Jonolists), leading up to November 2014 only too willing to throw up the spying Legislation and uproar emanating over snapper quota as reasons to not vote for the incumbent shower only to willing to rain on the shrinking parade of freedom,

      i would suggest that the slippery slope of inevitable electoral defeat began for this government months ago and the dead cat has been given a number of bounces via the ‘rights’ willingness to manipulate certain ‘public images’ in an attempt to manipulate the wavering,

      The more ‘supportive’ polls of this government in the future will be a good read from here to the election as i believe that any slide in support in such ‘supportive organs’ will inevitably be magnified by the electorates actions on voting day…

    • Rogue Trooper 7.2

      if,…….there is a God soldier, if.

      • bad12 7.2.1

        LOLZ, i waver on that question, weekly i waver, but down at my basest level of human form i once took ‘a trip’ and truly saw…

    • McFlock 7.3

      And I think that assuming a constant level of support that is independent of political events means that any political activity is a waste of time.

      Alternatively, a sustained and somewhat desperate (towards the end) attack by garner and gower did cause a dip in the polls for Labour, although it failed to achieve its objective (a challenge against Shearer as a distraction from National’s fuckwittedness and as a nice winter horse race for the pundittierie and commentariat).

      Whether that dip is over is another matter – one poll result does not make a recovery, and the quicker ground is gained then the quicker it can be lost. I would be surprised if a 5 point gain was followed by another gain of any significance.

      • Colonial Viper 7.3.1

        My assumption of a true level of support around 32%-33% doesn’t say that the number won’t move around depending on what is happening in any given month. It just says that it will tend back to that level of support over time.

        Can that “true level of support” be shifted over the long term? Certainly, not denying that at all.

        • McFlock 7.3.1.1

          lol
          so the “true level of support” can shift both monthly and in the longer term.

          Sounds to me like estimating a “true level of support” based on multiple 2-3weekly poll results is just so much marsh gas.

  8. Disraeli Gladstone 8

    Using the Nate Silver / Anthony Wells approach to polling, I’m suggesting we’re probably seeing National at 45-46%, Labour 32-33% and Greens at 12-13%.

    So really, it’s all to play for, people. National and Labour+Green are in a dead heat.

    … we’re going to end up with Winston as Kingmaker again, aren’t we?

    • bad12 8.1

      Not necessarily Winston and NZFirst as the ‘kingmaker’ in the next Parliament, what may be the making or breaking of the next Labour lead Government could well be the Mana Party and Hone Harawira,

      Electoral support for the Maori party has all but collapsed and a 1/3 to a 1/2 of the Maori Party’s previous support crossing over with their votes to the Mana Party would see Mana with another MP in the 2015 Parliament off of it’s list entitlement,

      Mana’s Annette Sykes, should She stand again in the Waiariki electorate needs 1940 of the votes from the incumbent Maori Party MP who’s support base has all but evaporated to gain Mana a 3rd MP in the next Parliament,

      It’s interesting to see Labour Leader David Shearer expounding Neanderthalic first past the post politics with His speech after the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election that Labour will be going ‘hard out’ to win back all the Maori electorates at the 2014 election,

      The point being that Labour would do far better to in effect ‘concede’ the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electorates to Mana as doing so would ensure the ‘Left’ 2 more seats in the next Parliament while Labour ‘winning’ both those electorate seats would see that Party making no numerical gains in MP numbers and ‘the Left’ as a Parliamentary Bloc with 2 less seats,

      It would take real ‘Leadership’ from within Labour to ‘see’ this and i doubt that the Party mired in the past of neanderthalic first past the post politics has that leadership capable of first ‘seeing’ the situation for what it is under MMP and second be willing to take the necessary steps to build that coalition of Party’s necessary to give ‘the left’ that out-right victory in 2014 that this country so desperately needs…

      • Watching 8.1.1

        Bad12, could you explain the logic behind your numbers.

        You are saying that Mana will take a percentage of the MP 1.5% to give them enough votes for two seats – this will be filled by 1 electorate & 1 list seat. Then you also say that Annette Sykes wins a second electorate seat & doesn’t this mean she takes up Mana’s second seat so that they now have 2 electorate & 0 list seat under their entitlement .

        If the above happens then doesn’t Mana now need to increase its list vote double what you suggest to get a List seat.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1

          bad12 has made similarly incorrect mathematical claims in the past. I think he doesn’t understand how it works.

          • bad12 8.1.1.1.1

            L, Feel free to list these incorrect mathematical claims that i have made in the past…or…

            • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1.1.1

              http://thestandard.org.nz/winston-peters-king-maker/#comment-667901
              and again in
              http://thestandard.org.nz/winston-peters-king-maker/#comment-668106

              In those comment you suggest Mana will have 3 seats in parliament, from them winning Sykes’ seat and from gaining 0.2% of the party vote to 1.2% to gain another list seat. But as we explain, 1.2% party vote + 2 electorate seats = 2 seats, not 3.

            • Akldnut 8.1.1.1.1.2

              Ba12 “It’s interesting to see Labour Leader David Shearer expounding Neanderthalic first past the post politics with his speech after the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election that Labour will be going ‘hard out’ to win back all the Maori electorates at the 2014 election”

              Strange that you perceive this as Neanderthalic politics when Mana did exactly the same in Waitakere last election and the greens did this in all other seats notably Central Christchurch in 2008 elections.

              Pot…Kettle……

              Perhaps Mana should run a programe in Waiariki to re-educate voters on how to fill in their ballots and chase the 1000 odd that voted incorrectly. And with the decline in MP base support Mana would romp in or barring that Sykes could step aside and leave it for Labour.

              Swings both ways.

        • bad12 8.1.1.2

          Yep, happy to say i have the electorate V party list MP’s equation wrong in that comment, Mana would have to win something like 3% of the Party vote plus win both Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau to gain 3 seats in the next Parliament,

          A hard ask but not impossible…

          • alwyn 8.1.1.2.1

            Sorry but that is still wrong.
            If they got 3% of the party vote they would get, almost certainly, 4 seats in Parliament, provided that they won a single electorate seat. They do not have to win two electorate seats as winning one qualifies them to have additional list seats even though they don’t get to the 5% threshold..
            In 2008 ACT got a total of 5 seats (1 electorate and 4 list) by getting 3.65% of the vote. That is the closest I found to 3% to illustrate the point. The exact cutoff for list seats depends on the exact number of wasted votes.

            • bad12 8.1.1.2.1.1

              alwyn, aaaah mathematical pain, i will definitely take your word for it, will try and hunt out the MMP calculator later, i think there is one on the Electoral Commissions website,

              But in the meantime, just for arguments sake,

              What % of the Party vote would the Mana Party need for 1 list MP if that Party won both the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electorate seats in 2014???,

              Taking into account what TRP is saying that 1.3% of the Party vote would simply be cancelled out by the winning of the 2nd electorate seat???…

              • alwyn

                On the 2011 results the last seat went to National with a quotient of 9048 votes.
                Assuming the same pattern in the next election the Mana party would have to get just over 5 times that figure, or about 46,000 votes. That would be about 2.1% of the votes cast.
                That would give them 1 electorate seat and 2 list seats or 2 electorate seats and 1 list seat.
                No electorate seats? No list seats as they would be below the 5% threshold.
                There is an explanation of the Saint Lague formula and how it works at
                http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011 in the Statistics section.
                Bloody awful thing to follow.

                • bad12

                  LOLZ, thanks for that, while you have been there i have been having my little neuron sack seriously twisted over at the Electoral Commissions calculator, which sounds about as easy to try and calculate a forward look at ‘might be’ results as where you have looked,

                  The most i could figure from that little piece of education was that on 2011 results Mana need another 6000 votes to be sure of a list seat along with Hone Harawira retaining Te Tai Tokerau…

                  • alwyn

                    I have tried it to. I thought your number was a bit high as my calculation says that a bit over 3 * 9048 should be enough.
                    I put in a Mana vote of 27,500 (about 3,300 more than they got) and that gives them a total of 2 seats. As one expects (see my comment about National getting the last seat above) National drops to 58.
                    That calculator is horrible, isn’t it. It took me 3 goes to get it right. The first time I had National vote at only one tenth, the second time I missed out the Maori party winning any electoral seats and the THIRD time I managed to get the numbers in properly.
                    It says you can change the numbers by using the back button but it doesn’t work. It just gives you a new blank sheet.

                  • alwyn

                    A final, very last word on this, just in case you see it.
                    I have done the numbers exactly and proved them on that calculator.
                    Assuming that every party except Mana gor the actual number of votes that they did in 2011 the critical number of votes for Mana to get a second seat would be worked out as follows.
                    The last persom to get in was the 59th National MP with a quotient of 1058636/117
                    Mana, to get a second seat, would have to get more than 3 times this number, which works out as 27,144.512
                    Thus at 27144 votes they get one 1 seat and National get 59.
                    At 27145 votes they get 2 seats and National drop to 58.
                    If you are really keen you can put the numbers into that calculator and check this.
                    Alternatively, if you have any sense you can take my word for it.
                    Since Mana actually got 24,168 votes they were 2977 votes short.

      • Te Reo Putake 8.1.2

        Bad, I don’t think wanting to win all the Maori seats is a reflection of FPP thinking. Electorate seats are just as important under MMP and I still get annoyed at the naivety of the left voters who wasted their electorate vote on a minor party, enabling the likes of Bennett and Kaye to win the seats. If you don’t think having a tory as your local MP is a problem, you are clearly not a beneficiary or part of the working poor needing assistance from the local electorate office.

        And I don’t see how your maths works; the left have the same number of seats whoever wins them. The only improvement on that is if Mana only win one seat and gain a second, overhang, seat by getting a party vote above 1.3% ( I think that’s the threshold?). If Sykes wins a second seat for Mana, that covers the overhang, so they still only have 2 MPs and the left total is unchanged.

        Having said that, I do stand to be corrected if I’ve misunderstood the overhang effect. It’s not an issue for the party I support, so I haven’t given it much thought.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1

          An overhang is when a party wins more electorate seats than it’s party vote would enable them too, eg Maori Party has an overhang because they won 3 electorate seats, but their share of the party vote should only entitle them to 2.

          A party that wins 1 electorate and then has enough party vote for 1 additional list seat does not create an overhang.

          A party that wins 1 electorate but not enough party vote to support 1 seat (eg, United Future in 2014, although in 2011 I think they got enough party vote for 1 seat) would create an overhang.

          A party that wins enough party vote for 10 list seats, but only has 9 or fewer list candidates on their list, would create an underhang. For example the Bill & Ben party had only 2 list candidates, so had they won 3 seats worth (including 1 electorate to avoid the 5% threshold), they would have had an underhang by 1.

        • bad12 8.1.2.2

          OK put aside the list MP for the moment, i see what you are saying regarding having 2 electorate MP’s V the % of party vote gained and you might be right with your point there,

          However, i believe you are wrong when you consider the 2 seats Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau against Labours % of the Party vote,

          Lets use the current Roy Morgan as our point of reference, should Labour gain 34% of the Party vote plus win the 2 electorates, Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau, Labour will first have to count the electorate seats won and then add to it’s MP’s the number which takes its MP’s to 34% of the House,

          Should Mana win both those electorates, Te Tai Tonga and Waiariki, Labour will still end up with the same number of MP’s in the House as it would have if it,Labour, had won those 2 electorates, 34%,

          As Mana already hold Te Tai Tokerau this scenario would give the ‘left’ an extra seat in the House, that of Waiariki which neither Labour or Mana currently hold,

          This scenario is Labour win Waiariki +34% of party vote= 34% of seats, if Mana win= 2 seats+Labour with 34% of seats= i extra seat in left bloc…

          • Lanthanide 8.1.2.2.1

            You overcomplicate it.

            It’s as simple as: electorate seat won by Maori Party, who are “right leaning”, vs electorate seat won by Mana, who are on the left.

            Labour has nothing to do with it.

            • bad12 8.1.2.2.1.1

              Nope you over-simplify, the Maori Party and in particular Tariana Turia are center left leaning with the codicil that Turia despises the Labour Party which is the sole reason for that Party’s coalition with the present National Government,

              The fact that you are blind to the actual numbers is possibly a matter for you to take up with your optician or other professional,

              Labour should they win both the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electoral seats and then find themselves with no gains in actual seat numbers in the House will have had everything to do with ‘it’,

              MMP is a matter of building coalitions, Labour as the perceived biggest player in any left bloc coalition should be focused on the building process not just as a matter of convenience after an election but constructively doing so during the electoral cycle between elections,

              If MMP has shown us one thing it is that smaller coalition partners are always first to be punished by the electorate for the perceived sins of supporting the major bloc of that coalition,

              Labour then need to be always looking for ways in which support for likely coalition partners can be bolstered…

        • bad12 8.1.2.3

          TRP, No No No, ”electoral seats are just as important under MMP”, No No No that is simply a hangover of thinking from FFP elections,

          The only time electoral seats are more important, in terms of forming a Government, than the % of Party vote is in the unlikely situation where Labour could win more electorate seats than it’s proportion of the Party Vote would have given them,

          S**t i lived in Bill from Dipton’s electorate for a couple of years and s did that while a beneficiary and it made no difference to me,

          If Labour are so concerned about the plight of the electorates where there is a Tory incumbent they only need a higly visible Labour Party office in that electorate with a direct line to a ‘buddy MP’s office’ at the Parliament, which could handle issues which only an MP could be said to be able to sort out,

          ”The left have the same number of seats no matter who wins them, No No No, more FFP thinking, consider this, Labour have a cup of tea with Hone and Annette Sykes in the the Waiariki electorate, Sykes wins, Labour would then have their 34% of MP’s plus 2 Mana Party MPs in the House,

          Should however Labour win the Waiariki electorate they will have exactly the same 34% of MP’s in the House but only 1 Mana Party vote in support in the House…

          • Te Reo Putake 8.1.2.3.1

            Yes yes yes, Bad. I gave the reason why electorate seats are important, but I guess you are “clearly not a beneficiary or part of the working poor needing assistance from the local electorate office.”

            And as for te mana, unless Hone holds the balance of power, they’re irrelevent. Hone’s hardly likely to vote down left legislation, is he? So his vote is effectively on board already.

            • bad12 8.1.2.3.1.1

              Yes TRP keep up with such arrogance and Labour will find itself right where it is now in terms of Governance,

              So you think that Labour will just throw Mana a bone as National does to the Maori Party and Mana will roll over for a tummy tickle do you,

              You and Labour are in for a big surprise…

              PS, and as far as Labour caring for the plight of beneficiaries, fucking save the crocodile tears, Labour from Douglas’s taxation of beneficiaries to the abysmal Clark’s decision to exclude beneficiaries from Working for Families to the Shearer beneficiary bashing speech have shown all beneficiaries that Labour couldn’t give a big fat one about them,

              That’s a pattern of beneficiary bashing as bad if not worse than the equally shitty record of National…

              • Te Reo Putake

                Yeah, and your attitude enables Paula Bennett and her Tory ilk. I’ll keep my ‘arrogance’ over your ignorance any day, Bad. Like it or not, life is better for beneficiaries under a left government generally and your electorate voting to assist the election of tory MP’s does not help them a jot.

                Hone knows this wider truth, which is why he will, if re-elected, support most of what the next Government does, even if he is not part of that Government.

                • bad12

                  LOLZ, TRP, you have convinced me of one thing at least, that being that my Party vote will be going to Mana in 2014 and my electorate vote to Russell Norman, thanks,

                  That’s an amazing little quibble you have put up there, ”life for a beneficiary is better under Labour than National”,

                  What a grand reason to vote for Labour, ”vote Labour a Party that doesn’t put the boot into beneficiaries as hard as what National does”,

                  The rest of your little rant is pretty much low brow stuff, do your knuckles scrape when you perambulate,

                  Everything i have said in this post has been to do with the Maori electorates none of which are likely to ever vote for the nonexistent National candidates, and the fact that you cannot bring yourself to concede that i am correct when i state that in 2014 should Labour win the Waiariki electorate ‘the left’ in the next Parliament will be down 1 vote is laughable but sad,

                  Now that’s what i call enabling a National Government…

        • QoT 8.1.2.4

          the naivety of the left voters

          Because they must be stupid, it’s not like they might be rejecting the anointed Labour candidate for good reasons of their own.

    • burt 8.2

      I don’t think Winston can be called the king maker. Any leader who relies on Winston to achieve power at any price could hardly be called a King !

      Perhaps we could call him the “sell out maker” – You can’t call somebody a leader when they require the support of such corrupt self serving people to “lead”. They are a sell out – not a leader.

      • bad12 8.2.1

        That’s about as pathetic a comment i would expect from the shrinking wing-nut brigade of commenters here at the Standard,

        Are you talking about the Winston who was pilloried in the Parliament and the media for having ‘taken’ a free fish dinner from the Veller brothers,

        Forgotten in the smooch fest tongue’n’groove tango surrounding the current Slippery little Shyster we have as Prime Minister is the small fact that immediately after His election He was more than happy to take a ‘free ride’ in a Veller brother’s helicopter from Hamilton to Auckland so anything you accuse Peters of has simply been magnified by the current incumbent in a ‘winner takes all’ thumbing of the nose at the electorate…

        • burt 8.2.1.1

          OK, so Winston isn’t (in your opinion) as bad as Key… Well it’s just awesome that being accountable under the law is in your world treated like a kid caught stealing biscuits – You can shout and point at someone else and say they did it too….

          God forbid we judge Peters according to the ethics and the standards we expect from MPs – wow just let him do what he wants because you think somebody else is worse….

          Grow up – most kids learn by the time they get to high school that pointing and shouting “they did it too” isn’t going to get them out of trouble – baby brain partisan hacks don’t seem to learn this lesson when they are in their self serving justification mode for their own team.

          • bad12 8.2.1.1.1

            Your latest little snivel of a comment is simply more of the wing-nut habit of putting words into a commenters mouth that they have neither uttered nor intended by the contents of a previous comment,

            Utter Bullshit in other words, if Winston Peters actions in accepting a free meal from the Veller brothers was as you wing-nuts put it corruption then your golden boy Slippery the Prime Minister has displayed as much if not more corruption and hypocrisy by at a later date accepting from the Veller brothers a free helicopter ride,

            Apply the same words in your last paragraph above to your own attitude…

  9. Aotearoean 9

    Rumour has it that Winnie the Poo has bought a new set of clothes!!1

  10. Core_Labour_Voter (Tory troll) 10

    Why do you guys think this poll is not accurate enough? I think the GCSB and Snapper quota issue has taken its toll and people are coming back in droves to Labour and Greens. We should all be publishing these poll results all over the place.

    • karol 10.1

      It does match John Campbell’s claim that Nat’s polling showed Key was taking a hit over the GCSB Bill and hence Key turning up on Campbell Live.

      • Akldnut 10.1.1

        Yeah I would feel a lot better if TV3 kept the issue alive (get inside voters heads) by plastering it over their news bulletins for the next week or so.

  11. Sanctuary 11

    Question – when was the last poll that showed Labour and the Greens both up at National’s expense?

    • karol 11.1

      July-Aug 2012

    • Bunji 11.2

      Both up? usually one or ‘tother.
      But for Roy Morgan: early April 2013, early March 2013…

      But this is a biggie. Mssive swing – probably a big outlier to the right to a small outlier to the left… that’s why it’s important to have lots of polls (that only Roy Morgan does), so you can see the trend.
      Interesting no press release from Roy Morgan – guess they’re a bit obsessed over Oz election at the mo.
      And obviously no breathless comment from our media. No Press Release = they didn’t hear about it…

      • karol 11.2.1

        March-April 2013 was a very slight rise by both Labour and Greens – Labour up 1.0; Greens up 0.5.

  12. Te Reo Putake 12

    New Roy Morgan’s out and its a doozy! Lab/Green 48, Nats 44.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5113-new-zealand-voting-intention-august-2013-201308200137

    If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win.

    The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 128 (down 0.5%) with 58% (down 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

    Gary Morgan says:

    “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll contains good news for the Opposition Labour (34%, up 5%) and Greens (14%, up 4%) – now at their highest level of combined support in four months since early April 2013. The Greens have jumped to their highest level of support in a year since August 2012.

    “The huge swings in support come as the contentious GCSB (Government Communications Security Bureau) ‘Spying’ Bill is heavily debated in Parliament. The Bill, which will increase the Government’s powers of surveillance over all New Zealand citizens, has faced strong opposition in Parliament. Prime Minister John Key has insisted on the importance of passage of the bill in the fight against terrorism claiming there are people living in New Zealand who had been trained by Al-Qaeda.

    “Opposition to the bill is not just inside Parliament, with the Law Society saying there are ‘fundamental flaws in the GCSB Bill’ that minor adjustments insisted on by Independent MP Peter Dunne for his support do not alter.”

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      New Roy Morgan’s out and its a doozy! Lab/Green 48, Nats 44.

      it’s a solid result, but reinforces a Labour true level of 32% or 33% +/- 3%.

  13. amirite 13

    I now expect the coordinated attack by the MSM on Shearer and his snapper in an attempt to hike up Nats’ ratings.

  14. tracey 14

    You can’t call somebody a leader when they require the support of such corrupt self serving people to “lead”. They are a sell out – not a leader.

    welll said burt… key is being propped up by banks isnt he?

  15. Grantoc 15

    There are polls and there are polls.

    Today’s Fairfax poll contradicts yesterday’s Morgan poll, showing National still in a commanding position and Labour still hovering in that zone just above 30%.

    Interestingly, the Greens in the Fairfax poll come in quite a bit lower too. Perhaps their voter support is quite volatile.

    So what to make of it all? Probably that nothing much has changed actually. National is still pretty dominant. Labour is not getting any traction. The Greens jump around a bit. NZ First may or may not be a player. This seems to be a pretty solid pattern looking back at all the polls over the last 18 mnts or so.

    • lprent 15.1

      So what to make of it all?

      That it is a poll by a different company and using a different methodology? A poll taken every two months or so has little credibility for looking at trends compared to one taken every two weeks.

      I notice you didn’t put in the delta’s from the previous poll by the same company. Nor did you state when this poll and the previous one from the same company were taken. Why is that?

      It is interesting reading what unthinking fools think about polls… Bit tedious though as they all seem to make the same moronic mistakes.

      • Grantoc 15.1.1

        Imprent

        I don’t agree that because a poll is taken only every 2 months compared with a poll taken every two weeks that it lacks credibility with regards to picking up trends. If it was a one off poll, you could argue that, but like other regular pollsters, the Fairfax poll has been around for a long time.

        Besides what actually is important is methodological rigour; especially around question design, statistical analysis etc. I’m not in a position to say whether the Morgan poll is superior in this regard than the Fairfax poll, or the other way around.

        Also important for getting a real handle on the trends is to combine the results from all relevant polls and see what that says about patterns.

        • lprent 15.1.1.1

          Have a *close* look at the variability of the Roy Morgan polls every two weeks. Then consider that every other poll has exactly the same kinds of statistical variability. RM literally bounces around by ~ +/- 4% from a mean for the two main parties.

          So in the last poll there was 7% decrease in National’s support compared to a similar increase in the previous poll. Still roughly within the statistical but on the extremes of it. If you look over a series of 4 for a two month period, then lo and behold – you can actually see the overall trend without the statistical variability screwing it up.

          But a poll that comes out every two months has exactly the same level of variability – but you can’t really see it…

          Remember that what the polling companies are sampling isn’t really the overall voting population. It is a subset that represents the population that they are sampling from that is meant to represent the overall population. Factors like them calling people on phones makes a hell of a different. Incidentally that is why you can’t rely on the actual percentages – because they don’t reflect the population that will actually vote.

          Trends and rough percentages are all that you can rely upon. Methodology on a single question that amounts to “If the election was held today, which party would you vote for” is largely irrelevant (because that is what they are reporting on). But making sure that the population you are sampling in is consistent. The frequency you take the polls in also helps as it is part of the methodology – it helps to even out the inconsistencies in method and to highlight the natural variability.

          If you look at the news organisations polls you can see a remarkable consistency. They look to be designed to have enough change to make a good news story each time…

          Now consider that some dork (yourself for instance) will look at a single point reflecting one of those extremes every two months and start the usual pontification about “what it all means”. If you are really silly you’ll compare the values between two different polling companies for extra meaningless waffle.

          combine the results from all relevant polls

          Yeah right. There are 4 polls that happen about every 2 months. Then there is one poll that happens every 2 weeks.

          What do you think weights the combined poll results the most? The 4 polls from a single companies sampling method or the 4 polls from from 4 separate companies sampling methods.

          Bearing in mind the RM has been consistently closest to the actual results over the last 3 elections, and without having the abrupt changes in angle that the others show at election time as their previously undisclosed undecided population “makes up their mind” – which would you look at?.

          If the other polls weren’t all pulling National upwards and the minor parties downwards mid-term (which is what they do), then a composite would be useful. But you really need a *lot* more polls and competitive polling companies to make it viable. The polls in the US or even aussie tend to be more accurate as composite polls simply because there are polls coming out every few days. Here our population of polls is so low that a single shyster company can drag them anywhere.

          As I said before – people who haven’t thought about polls say the same daft things over and over again without *thinking*

          • Grantoc 15.1.1.1.1

            All very interesting Iprent. But your elaborate defence of the validity of one poll over the rest doesn’t stack up.

            Have you heard of Nate Silver? He is the statistician, who amongst other things precisely predicted the outcome of the last US presidential election – calling each state accurately. He blogs for the New York Times.

            How did he do this? By analysing at all of the polling data from every available poll in each State and drawing conclusions that led to his ability to make accurate predictions.

            Interetsingly he was attacked by the Republicans because, they, like you, wanted desperately to believe that their ‘pet’ polls were more accurate and better than all others.

            Check him out Iprent. he has more credibility as far as I’m concerned on polling and how they work and what they mean than you do.

  16. Lol, lets speak about trends.

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    Labour | 29-10
  • Please help me get my Feed the Kids Bill to Select Committee
    Last week I took over the Feed the Kids Bill that Hone Harawira had introduced to Parliament. If passed, my Bill will provide government-funded breakfast and lunch in all decile 1 and 2 schools. Hungry kids can’t learn and are...
    Greens | 29-10
  • TVNZ Outsourcing Pasifika and Maori Programmes
    I’ve always been a big fan of our state broadcaster and I’ve particularly liked their range of current events programmes. But after Friday’s announcement that TVNZ will be sacking up to 40 staff by contracting out the Pacific and Maori...
    Greens | 29-10
  • Labour urges iwi leaders to meet with National
    Labour’s Māori Caucus has called on iwi leaders and national Māori organisations to seek urgent meetings with the National Government to directly express their concerns about employment law changes which will harm Māori workers. In an open letter sent today...
    Labour | 29-10
  • ACC’s reputation needs fix, not glitz
    Restoring public trust and confidence in ACC will take a lot more than a new communications strategy or social media blitz, says Labour’s ACC spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway. “Under National, ACC has come to be perceived as insensitive, difficult to deal...
    Labour | 29-10
  • Lessons to be learned from police investigation
    The outcome of the so-called Roast Busters case should not put victims off reporting sexual crimes, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader Annette King says. “This case has been mishandled from the start. Within days of police initially saying no charges had...
    Labour | 29-10
  • Anti-worker legislation is anti-Pacifica
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga, will go down in history as being part of a Government that harmed his own people through anti-worker legislation, says Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “Pacific people are among...
    Labour | 29-10
  • Five-year tax holiday for overseas tax dodgers
    National has just gifted a five-year tax holiday for foreign companies dodging their tax payments, says Revenue spokesperson David Clark. “Todd McClay has pretended he is doing something about overseas companies dodging their tax duties by joining an international initiative...
    Labour | 29-10
  • Traffic Jam Tax must be given the red light
    Auckland Council’s proposed Traffic Jam Tax could cost some households thousands of dollars a year just to use roads they had already paid for with their taxes and must be rejected, says Labour’s transport and Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford....
    Labour | 29-10
  • National has chance to show leadership on limos
    The National Party has the opportunity to show leadership by transitioning our vehicle fleet towards renewable electricity when a new contract to supply Government limousines for VIPs goes to tender next month, the Green Party said today. "This is a...
    Greens | 29-10
  • The Māori Party can’t have it both ways over labour laws
    The Māori Party has to fess up over its voting record on the Employment Relations Amendment Bill, says Labour’s Māori Caucus.  “It’s simply not good enough to oppose the bill at the same time  as they helped speed up its progress through...
    Labour | 29-10
  • Equal pay and the aged care sector
    Today the High Court upheld the historic ruling by the Employment Court that our Equal Pay Act could be used to consider work of equal value cases; the government has been telling the UN and ILO that it could for...
    Greens | 29-10
  • Court case perfect opportunity for Government to improve gender pay gap
    If the Government wants to halt New Zealand’s slump in international rankings on the gender pay gap it should act on the court finding that women deserve equal wages, Labour’s Women’s Affairs spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “The World Economic Forum’s...
    Labour | 28-10
  • All Auckland transport options should be considered
    All options for meeting Auckland's transport needs should be considered, including reprioritising the transport budget away from wasteful spending on motorways, the Green Party said today.Auckland mayor Len Brown is today releasing a transport report by the Independent Advisory Board,...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Another report highlights Govt failure on child poverty
    An international report measuring the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on child poverty rates, showing children in New Zealand have done worse than children in other countries, is further proof the Government needs to urgently take additional steps...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Address and Reply Debate Part 55: Inequality and Disability
    I rise on behalf of the Green Party to talk about inequality and disability.The recent census showed that nearly one in four New Zealanders lives with a disability—up from one in five in the previous census. These figures include some...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Address and Reply Debate Part 55: Inequality and Disability
    I rise on behalf of the Green Party to talk about inequality and disability.The recent census showed that nearly one in four New Zealanders lives with a disability—up from one in five in the previous census. These figures include some...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Child poverty: No more wake-up calls
    A new report which shows the National Government has made no inroads whatsoever into child poverty should do more than just set alarm bells ringing, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader Annette King says. “UNICEF’s  latest Innocenti Report Card highlights the fact...
    Labour | 28-10
  • Eugenie Sage speaks in the 2014 Address in Reply Debate
    I congratulate you, Assistant Speaker Mallard, as Assistant Speaker and look forward to your knowledge, your fairness, and your light touch in being a referee of proceedings in this House. I congratulate also the other Assistant Speaker, Lindsay Tisch; the...
    Greens | 28-10
  • James Shaw’s Maiden Speech
    Tena Koe, Mr Speaker. I would like to take this opportunity to speak a little of the past, the present and the future. The privilege to serve in this Parliament was given to me by all those who gave their...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Govt airs real views on public broadcasting
    An admission by the Government that it is happy to experiment with Pacific and Maori audiences shows just how weak its vision for public broadcasting in New Zealand is, Labour’s Broadcasting spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. “National today admitted it doesn’t...
    Labour | 28-10
  • Does Judith Collins have a get out of jail card?
    Former justice minister Judith Collins appears to have been gifted a get out of jail free card based on the Prime Minister’s answers in Parliament today, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader Annette King says. “Judith Collins claimed in an Official Information...
    Labour | 28-10
  • Solid Energy decision delay sensible
    Today’s announcement by the Board of Solid Energy that it will delay making a final decision on re-entering the Pike River mine is a sensible move, Labour’s MP for  West Coast-Tasman Damien O’Connor says. “It has been clear for some...
    Labour | 28-10
  • New York Green Bank off to a $1B start
    New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced late last week the New York Green Bank’s first NZD$1 billion tranche of green energy investments. The projects, which are difficult for the private sector to finance, are now possible by New York Green...
    Greens | 28-10
  • The Final Fifth: The Last Great Task for Progressive New Zealand.
    MOST OF NEW ZEALAND’S social problems are concentrated among those living at the margins of what is otherwise a relatively wealthy society. Recently released international data on child poverty has exposed an acutely stressed social strata encompassing roughly 20 percent...
    The Daily Blog | 31-10
  • Myth Busting Rape Boasters
    In just one week a case that galvanised a nation into discussing rape culture is now being reframed as mischievous teen hi-jinx. One year ago the Roast Busters case came to the attention of the media and the public. This...
    The Daily Blog | 31-10
  • Workers rights weakened by new laws – fightback needed
    The government’s changes to the employment laws are designed to weaken workers bargaining power – at both the individual and collective level.   30-day rule The old law required an employer with a collective agreement in place to employ new...
    The Daily Blog | 31-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Simon Buckingham – Where are Labour Candidates on disability?
    For the few people who know me (hello Mum), I am proudly New Zealand’s first Autistic Spectrum Lawyer, as well as being the very bottom Candidate on the Labour Party List. (64 out of 64). Being honoured like this is...
    The Daily Blog | 31-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Blockade the Budget
    The ‘Independent’ Police Conduct Authority’s report into the policing of student protests in 2012 is a whitewash The report released by the Independent Police Conduct Authority into the policing of student protests in 2012 is a whitewash riddled with inaccuracies....
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • When National claim new anti worker laws provide ‘flexibility’ they mea...
    And so it comes to pass. The first law National ram through as part of their victory march are new anti worker laws they pretend will generate ‘flexibility’. The new law denigrate the unions ability to protect workers and provide...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • City Transport: A Taxing Matter
    This week the prospect of paying tolls on Auckland motorways became a hot topic. (See Mathew Dearnaley:Motorway tolling could hit some hard, NZ Herald, 30 Oct 2014.) As we might expect, the kneejerk response has been quite negative. But, as with...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Open Letter to Amy Adams: Please Reopen The Review Into Sexual Violence Cou...
    Ms Amy Adams, Justice and Courts Minister, Right now in this country it seems that although rape is illegal, it is not being prevented by the agents who uphold the law. It almost feels like rape is only illegal on paper,...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • MEDIA WATCH: Does ‘No-Surprises’ Also Apply To TVNZ News?
    When you stand back and look at NZ media outlets, most of them have at least one or two people who attempt to hold the government to account: John Campbell on TV3, Guyon Espiner and others at Radio NZ, David...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Things That Make You Go Hmmmmmmm
    Every so often in politics, a public figure comes out with something so absurd and so outlandish … that it really does just make you go “Hmmmmmmmmmm”. We’re accustomed to this from certain quarters – by mid point through the...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Poverty & inequality don’t need protest marches – they need a riot:...
    The global level of inequality continues to skyrocket… Number of billionaires doubled since financial crisis The number of billionaires has doubled since the start of the financial crisis, according to a major new report from anti-poverty campaigners. According to Oxfam,...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • If Key knows who Rawshark is…
    I’m sorry, what? John Key ‘given Rawshark’s name’The Prime Minister believes he knows who hacked Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater’s computer and produced the source material for Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics, according to a new edition of a recently published...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Child Poverty stats in NZ
    Child Poverty stats in NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Crimes Act + Police Investigation = WTF
    Just to frame the farce that is the Roastbuster’s investigation and conclusion – here are the parts of the Crime Act http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1961/0043/latest/whole.html#DLM329057  the Roastbusters are proven to have violated – that the police (and some suspects!) themselves acknowledge occurred: Crimes...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Publishing Journalists’ Home Addresses Is A Tactic Of The Right, Not The ...
    I think I’m starting to get rather annoyed with the conduct of some pro-MANA people over this ongoing Parliamentary Services crew complement issue. Yes, we get that there are legitimate issues to be raised with how some political reporters in...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Aucklanders caught between a tarseal-addicted government and a weak mayor
    Len Brown’s proposal for motorway tolls to reduce congestion and provide funding for better public transport is a weak response to a critical issue. The $12 billion dollar shortfall on transport funding he talks about is mainly for projected new...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • A Very Weird Story: Deconstructing Darren Aronofsky’s Noah.
    NOAH is a curious movie. Conceived as a biblical epic, it’s target audience was originally the millions of Americans who regard the Bible as God’s inerrant word. With the sin-filled works of Hollywood forbidden to these true-believers, Christian movie-makers have developed...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • You Can Get Away With Rape In New Zealand
    Jessie Hume with last years petition against rape     The police have sent a strong message today.  In fact they’ve been sending a strong message for a while; a message that our government supports. “You can literally get away...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Roast Buster case – no charges. In the immortal words of NWA…
    Roast Busters case: No prosecutions Police are to make an announcement this afternoon on Operation Clover, the investigation into the “Roast Busters” allegations. The Herald understands the victim has been told that the alleged offenders will not be prosecuted due...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Key’s flag change distraction to cost $26million!
    No. Way. Bid to change NZ flag to cost millions The cost of holding two referendums and consulting on a change of flag has been estimated to be just under $26 million. Look. We all appreciate that the sleepy hobbits...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Why NZ Herald’s Labour Party crocodile tears are so audacious
    The front page the NZ Herald would use if they thought they could get away with it No one can take the recent columns by NZ Herald seriously… John Armstrong: Shadow lingers on National John Roughan: Labour’s leadership vote matters...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • The beginning of the end of Cameron Slater?
    Slater postings on man bizarre, court told A businessman has changed his appearance and had to install extra security at his home after Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater posted his business and personal documents online, he says. Mr Slater has...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • We are a milk power republic and Fonterra our unelected senate
    Wow. Just wow… Deputy mayor says he’ll be sacked South Taranaki deputy mayor Alex Ballantyne says he expects to be sacked because he has spoken out about the impact gasses coming from dumped Fonterra dairy products have had on his...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • MEDIA WATCH: “…But *actually* this is about ethics in political-game jo...
    Yesterday, a piece of mine on the recent revelations about Hone Harawira employing several gentlemen either accused or convicted of sex offences was published on The Daily Blog. Predictably, given the fierce loyalty which Hone inspires in his party faithful and...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • Privilege cheque
    There was no race problem in my childhood. Living in central Wellington I was well-insulated from what was going on not so far away. This was the 60s and 70s, where the teachers enjoyed free love in the staff room...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • A brief word on Key’s claim that it will be raining carnage
    Isis will ‘rain carnage on the world’ – John Key Left unchecked Isis would “rain carnage on the world”, Prime Minister John Key says, but he has yet to make a decision on whether New Zealand troops will join a...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • Meanwhile…
    ...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • How does Andrew Little win Labour Leadership and unify the caucus?
    Audrey Young’s excellent column on how the Caucus vote  is shaping up shows how Andrew Little becomes the next leader of the Labour Party. She identifies the factions as the following… Andrew Little 6: Andrew Little, David Cunliffe, Iain Lees Galloway,...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Joe Trinder – Right of response to Curwen
    You have asked that Hone Harawira deserves to explain what happened, how would he explain when his next door neighbour is an alleged sex offender. What explanation can Hone offer he wasn’t involved, Hone had no idea this offending was...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • MEDIA WATCH: That Hella-Weird Feeling When You Defend Tova O’Brien
    Oh dear. Yesterday morning I blogged that Hone deserved a chance to explain what exactly had happened as applies his office’s Parliamentary Services crew complement – and, importantly, that we deserve to be able to judge him on the strength of...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • Canadian Green MP warns against harsh anti-terror measures
    Canada’s Green Party has provided a welcome counterpoint to Prime Minister Harper’s call for tougher anti-terrorism laws in the wake of a soldier outside the Canadian Parliament. On October 22, while she was still locked in her parliamentary office, Green...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • When is an asset sale not an asset sale? When it robs from the poor and ste...
    National have turned state housing on its head. At no time during the 2014 election did the Key Government even hint that they were going to privatise 30% of the Housing NZ stock of state homes. Not once. Key even...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part To...
    . . Continued from: Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Rua) . Bill English comes clean on National’s intentions for HNZ privatisation . On 14 October, in a report on The Daily Blog, I wrote, In...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • The Questions Have Been Asked – They Deserve An Answer
    A few days ago, allegations that had been percolating for some time about Hone Harawira employing three either accused or convicted sex offenders on his Parliamentary pay-roll came to light. (one imprisoned before working for MANA; one who found himself convicted and...
    The Daily Blog | 26-10
  • I have seen one future, and it is bleak
    . . Back in  March 2012, I wrote this story regarding a march to support striking workers at Ports of Auckland. It appears there was some prescience about some of my observations at the time… . | | 18 March...
    The Daily Blog | 26-10
  • US air strike war Key wants us in has killed a civilian a day so far
      The US air strike war that John Key wants us to join has killed a civilian a day so far. From the Washington Post... The United States launched its first airstrikes on militants in Syria on Sept. 23, and has continued...
    The Daily Blog | 26-10
  • The instant Jihad syndrome
    My favourite new term is ‘self-radicalised’ – it suggests the reasons for terrorism are totally divorced from the actions of the West. This need to suddenly ramp up terror laws because of lone wolf, self-radicalised Jihadists seems convenient and counter-productive....
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • We have nothing to fear from Ebola but fear itself
    I suspect most Americans perceive Ebola like this   I can’t work out if the fear being spread within the media about Ebola is deliberate or just ignorance. Yes Ebola is a terrible plague that kills a large percentage of...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – “Meritocracy? I wish.”
    I’d like to start by linking to a post I had published at another site in support of Nanaia Mahuta for the Labour Party leadership election.  She has a reasonable chance, given that she already has the endorsement of Te...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • Chocolate milk shortage and creepy Santa? Let’s talk about real news
    Child poverty is still a scarily serious problem in this country and house prices are soaring through the roof to the point where it is simply impossible for the average New Zealander to buy a home. There is also little...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • It’s time to celebrate Kiwi schools and teachers
    Some would have you believe that New Zealand’s schools are in a state of collapse, that your children are not being educated well and that things are going to hell in a hand basket.  That there is no innovation, no...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • Ideological Blitzkrieg – Privatization of state housing, more charter sch...
    Pundits in pundit land will tell you that this Government is boring, that Key is the great pragmatist and that it is his ability to create elegant solutions that keeps him the firm favourite in many Kiwi eyes. This ability...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • Hegemony rules but resistance is fertile
    The Prime Minister is a puppet. Not just our current Prime Minister, but given the forces of multinational globalisation, the role of any head of state, is less as independent actor, and more as a puppet of international trends and...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • An open Letter to Sir Bob Jones: demanding a ‘liveable wage’ is not “...
    How out of touch with reality is Sir Bob Jones? You know, that white dude who invested in privatised SOEs after the selling off of our assets in the eighties and made a ludicrous and disgusting amount of money and is...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • My insecurity about the Security Council
    As I write this (on 24 October) it is international UN Day. Of course, you all knew that already, right? Well, the day celebrates the entry into force of the UN Charter in 1945. With the ratification of this founding...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Catherine Delahunty – Back in That House
    Parliament opened this week and I still find it a very odd place. Most of the people are reasonably courteous and friendly, but the rituals are archaic and the rules around issues like the swearing in oath are oppressive and...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Marae Investigates No More
    TVNZ yesterday announced the closure of their Māori and Pacific programmes department. That means they’ve chosen to stop making Fresh, Tagata Pasifika, Waka Huia and Marae Investigates to let independent producers get their hands on these lucrative contracts. This is...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • BLOGWATCH: An Un-Civil War in Labour, eh?
    Earlier today, my attention was directed to an entry that’s just recently appeared on the Slightly Left of Centre blog. It purports to contain the ‘inside word’ from a highly placed NZF source – which is funny, because I’m pretty sure...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Santanomics 101
    Santanomics could mean a number of things. It could be the study and practice of giving. Or it could mean the study and practice of rampant end-of-year commercialism. However, for me today it is the economics of erectingAuckland’s giant Santa...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • SkyCity boss misleads public over workers lost shifts
    SkyCity CEO Nigel Morrison has defended the employment practices at his company in an “Opinion” piece entitled “Human Capital key to corporate success” in the NZ Herald on Thursday. A number of his claims are misleading, contain only partial truths...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Roast Busters: Turn Indignation into Action
    People raged about the Roast Buster case. The indignation was justified – it was horrible. “Where were their parents!?” Fair question. I am sure the Roast Busters’ parents and the victims’ parents all wish they had been more proactive in...
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Stats NZ only have themselves to blame for postponement
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says Statistics NZ only have themselves to blame for the indefinite postponement of the release of the Food Price Index: November 2014....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • NZ Diversity Survey – benchmarking workplace diversity
    AUT University’s New Zealand Work Research Institute (NZWRI) has released a report on diversity in New Zealand workplaces....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Māori Language (Te Reo Māori) Bill
    Tutehounuku Korako, Chair of the Māori Affairs Committee, is inviting further public submissions on this bill. The closing date for submissions is Friday, 5 December 2014....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • ERA amendments a mixed bag
    The Employment Relations Amendment Act has the potential to put vulnerable workers in a more precarious position, says Equal Opportunities Commissioner, Dr Jackie Blue. However, the commissioner says the right for all to request flexible work hours is...
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Sensible Sentencing calls for appeal of judicial activivism
    The Sensible Sentencing Trust is appalled that Justice Jill Mallon has today refused to apply the Life without Parole (LWOP) provisions of the Three Strikes law as enacted by Parliament....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Global Rally against ISIS – for Kobanê – for Humanity, Nov 1
    The New Zealand Kurdish Community will march in solidarity with Kurdistan as part of the “GLOBAL RALLY AGAINST ISIS – FOR KOBANÊ – FOR HUMANITY” on 1 November 2014, 2pm....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Does ‘No-Surprises’ Also Apply To TVNZ News?
    When you stand back and look at NZ media outlets, most of them have at least one or two people who attempt to hold the government to account: John Campbell on TV3, Guyon Espiner and others at Radio NZ, David...
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Safer roads are better for everyone
    Recent pedestrian versus vehicle incidents highlight the real issues being addressed by delegates as the 2Walk and Cycle conference concludes....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Law change creates more flexible labour market
    The Employment Relations Amendment Act, passed yesterday, will bring new flexibility to the labour market and will reduce the ability of unions to organise and to recruit....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Bumper ANZ profits mean no excuse for insecure hours
    A big rise in profits at New Zealand's largest bank needs to be reflected in a better pay offer and more security around hours of work, the bank workers’ union said today....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Count down to lowered alcohol limit
    With just a month to go until a new lower alcohol limit for adult drivers comes into effect, Police and road safety agencies are reminding drivers of the impending change....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • WorkSafe Supports Forestry Review Findings
    WorkSafe NZ says the Independent Forestry Safety Review has clearly identified the problems facing an industry in which ten workers were killed last year. “The Review’s analysis matches our own view and leaves no doubt about the need for comprehensive,...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • CTU welcomes forestry review recommendations
    The CTU is welcoming the today's release of the independent forestry safety review panel findings. "These recommendations must be implemented to ensure that everything possible is done to make forestry safer." CTU President, Helen Kelly said....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Activists will confront animal abusers
    Today animal rights activists will confront a group of wealth advisers who want to build the biggest egg factory-farm in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Turia: Women’s Refuge Conference 2014
    This is a milestone moment in my life. This will be my last official address as Co-leader of the Maori Party. On Saturday night at our Hui-a-Tau, I will be standing down from that role and enabling a new co-leader,...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Rodeo Code of Welfare ‘Sick Joke’
    Animal advocacy organisation SAFE says the revised Code of Welfare for Rodeos just released is nothing but a sick joke. “Rodeo animals are goaded, tormented and forced to endure needless suffering and gross mistreatment, all for the sake of so-called...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Conservative Party applauds binding referenda on flag
    The Conservative Party are congratulating the Government on the decision to hold two binding referendums to decide the fate of New Zealand’s flag – and believes it will pave the way for binding referenda to form part of New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Walk the Talk – Opposing violence against women
    Soroptimist International of Auckland have organised a walk on 22 November from Silo Park at the Wynyard Quarter through the Viaduct and back to Silo Park, to show their opposition to violence against women. This event hopes to raise awareness...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Recommendations on the Design of Pecuniary Penalties
    The Law Commission has reviewed the use of pecuniary penalties as a regulatory tool. Pecuniary penalties are financial penalties that policymakers are increasingly opting to use in place of criminal sanctions in order to punish and deter misconduct in...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Every worker will be affected by employment law changes
    Every worker will feel the effects of the government’s new employment laws and should join a union if they want to maintain and increase their wages and conditions, says New Zealand’s largest private sector union, the EPMU....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Shameful attack on all workers
    The Government has passed the Employment Relations Amendment Act slashing the rights of all Kiwi workers. “These changes are shameful. New Zealand now has some of the worst employment protections in the OECD. It is embarrassing that a country which...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Unnecessary law changes more to do with ideology
    The government’s employment law changes are simply ideological and are at odds with its approach in the related areas of health and safety and immigration law, FIRST Union said tonight....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • CTU Runanga calls on iwi leaders
    Maori workers are calling on iwi leaders to speak out against the employment law changes expected to go through today. “Iwi leaders have previously spoken out when workers in Aotearoa have been under attack, we believe they should do so...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Educating children not the best solution to alcohol harm
    Alcohol Healthwatch says we need to look beyond educating children and young people to address deeply embedded attitudes and behaviours concerning alcohol....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • New code of welfare for rodeos released
    New standards to strengthen the animal welfare requirements for rodeos have been issued today by the Minister for Primary Industries, Nathan Guy....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • IPCA report riddle with inaccuracies, say students
    A report by the Independent Police Conduct Authority into the policing of student protests in 2012 is riddled with inaccuracies, say students who laid the original complaint with the IPCA....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • CT v The Queen – indecency convictions quashed
    This summary is provided to assist in the understanding of the Court’s judgment. It does not comprise part of the reasons for that judgment. The full judgment with reasons is the only authoritative document. The full text of the judgment...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Rameka v The Queen – murder convictions quashed
    This summary is provided to assist in the understanding of the Court’s judgment. It does not comprise part of the reasons for that judgment. The full judgment with reasons is the only authoritative document. The full text of the judgment...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Auckland Council Out of Control
    Responding to the NZ Herald article that some Auckland households will face a rates rise of up to 9.6 per cent next year, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says: “Len Brown’s pledge to cap rates rises at 2.5 per...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Stats NZ staff escalate action with ‘no more meetings’ rule
    Statistics NZ staff have voted to escalate their ongoing industrial action in an effort to get Stats NZ back to the bargaining table with a reasonable offer. The staff, who are members of the Public Service Association (PSA), have been...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Rape Crisis calls for changes to criminal justice system
    Wellington Rape Crisis has added its voice to the public outcry following the announcement that there will be no charges in the teen rape gang case. Butterworth says the decision not to lay charges will not have been a surprise...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Police action justified in Blockade the Budget demonstration
    Police actions in dealing with a demonstration in Central Auckland known as Blockade the Budget on 1 June 2012 were justified and appropriate, an Independent Police Conduct Authority report released today found....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • NZDF Joins with Australia to Commemorate WWI Centenary
    A contingent of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel will join their Australian counterparts at Australia’s first major commemoration of the First World War centenary in Albany, Western Australia this weekend....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Reserve Bank should reduce interest rate
    “The Reserve Bank should be reducing its policy interest rate, the OCR”, says CTU Economist Bill Rosenberg in response to the Bank’s announcement today that it is not increasing it....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • 2015 Stout Fellow will write about Māori & Criminal Justice
    Kim Workman, founder and advocate for the Robson Hanan Trust, which administers the Rethinking Crime and Punishment and Justspeak initiatives, has been awarded the 2015 John David Stout Fellowship at Victoria University....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • What John Key thought about ‘dirty politics’
    On September 20, John Key swept to victory to become one of New Zealand’s most successful and popular Prime Ministers. Rocked by scandal, the 2014 election campaign was one of the most brutal – and riveting – in recent history....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Trade Deal Threatens Farmers and Food Businesses
    The secret Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations are a direct threat to food businesses and farmers, and a moratorium on the release of GE crops must be enshrined in law before the TPP is signed....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • CTU announces election of new Secretary
    The contested election for the position of CTU Secretary has been won by Sam Huggard. Sam officially takes office on Monday 1 December 2014. Sam has worked in the union movement and brings a wealth of experience and a commitment...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Kim Workman awarded 2015 J.D. Stout Fellowship
    The Victoria University of Wellington 2015 J.D. Stout Fellowship, funded by the Stout Trust, has been awarded to justice reform advocate Kim Workman. Mr Workman (Ngati Kahungungu ki Wairarapa, Rangitaane) is well known for his work on criminal justice,...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • TPPA causing concern
    Concern over the secretive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) negotiations is being expressed in two public meetings over the next week; one at a presentation on 5th November by former councillor Robin Gwynn to the Napier City Council, the...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Kiwis rally to demand justice for ‘Roast Buster’ survivors
    Over 1,500 kiwis have rallied to demand justice after the announcement of the NZ Police decision not to lay charges in the ‘Roast Busters’ saga....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • New employment law will hurt the most vulnerable NZers
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says changes to the Employment Relations Act, expected to be passed in Parliament tonight, will hurt vulnerable workers and their families more than anyone....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Consultation to close on proposed place names
    The New Zealand Geographic Board (NZGB) Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa today advised that only one month remains before public consultation closes for 18 name proposals for geographic features and places around Te Ika ā Māui (the North Island)....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Operation Clover – Statement from Police Commissioner
    I have taken a close interest in this investigation and I am confident police have conducted a thorough and professional enquiry in what has been a challenging and complex case. The Operation Clover team has ensured that victims have been...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Better policy would have protected children from recession
    Child Poverty Action Group says an international report released by UNICEF today shows good policy can protect and improve child well-being, even during a recession....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Outcome of Operation Clover investigation
    Police have completed a multi-agency investigation, Operation Clover, into the activities of a group calling themselves “The Roast Busters”. The 12 month enquiry focused on incidents involving allegations of sexual offending against a number of girls...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • False birth registration brings home detention
    A Whangarei woman who attempted to register the birth of a fictitious child to claim a sole parent benefit was sentenced to six months home detention in the Whangarei District Court today....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Family of Robert Ellis demand a proper investigation
    The family of a New Zealander killed in Indonesia are growing increasingly concerned at the lack of information they’ve received, and the handling of the investigation into his murder....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Minister of Health must account for aged care workers’ pay
    The New Zealand Federation of Business and Professional Women (BPW NZ) congratulates rest-home worker Kristine Bartlett on her landmark claim for equal pay from her employer and successfully pursuing this to the Court of Appeal....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
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