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Roy Morgan bounces left

Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, polls - Tags: ,

Not the usual Roy Morgan post on a poll, but this summary of recent polls contains previously unpublished data to August 11.

National 44 (down 7)
Labour 34 (up 5)
Greens 14 (up 4)
No significant changes in the other parties

Roy Morgan is an erratic poll, so the previous one (which had National on 51%) was probably an outlier. No one on the Left will be breaking out the champagne yet, but it’s good to see a return to the trend of late for the Left bloc to be clearly ahead of National.

76 comments on “Roy Morgan bounces left”

  1. tracey 1

    I dont get excited Bout polls. Rightly or wrongly I believe they are only as good as therson writing the questions.

  2. Melb 2

    Maybe this poll is the outlier.

    • Akldnut 2.1

      You obviously haven’t had a look at the summary or you wouldn’t have made a stupid comment like that, or maybe you did and would have still said it anyways.

    • lprent 2.2

      All local political polls are highly erratic. Small sample sizes, suspect population sampling, etc. The Roy Morgan happens frequently enough (about every two weeks), so you can see it. You can see the underlying trends as well.

      Read the numbers.

  3. amirite 3

    The teflon is starting to wear out, it seems.

  4. hush minx 4

    Two thoughts occur to me – labor is back to where it was in 2008. Good but not good enough. Low 40s is where we need to be, so let this just be a step on the journey. Two, is labour really ready to deal with the greens at almost half their vote? Look how they treated Catherine Delahunty’s bill and you’d say probably not.

    • Jackal 4.1

      Firstly, the fact that Labour is back to 34% while the Green’s have increased by 7.3% to 14% means your comment is largely irrelevant hush minx. On the current numbers Labour would form the next Government with the Greens. Secondly, Catherine Delahunty has had four bills so which one are you talking about exactly? Clearly the Greens and Labour can work constructively together. Labour does not need to “deal with the greens” at all.

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        1/3 Greens Cabinet is going to be a very interesting phenomenon.

      • George D 4.1.2

        What Hush Minx is referring to was a bill that would have withdrawn the ability of the creators of otherwise illegal water pollution to claim exceptional circumstances in perpetuity. Instead, they would have had five years to phase out their pollution. It’s aimed squarely at the Kawerau mill and particular mine sites, but had the support of unions and iwi. It’s hardly unreasonable.

        http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/217021/greens-take-whack-at-labour-over-environment

        We can only speculate as to what the motives of Shearer and his Tight Five were.

        • Jackal 4.1.2.1

          Clearly the Labour members on the committee saying that the black drain bill proposed a too “short a consent time for useful investment” doesn’t preclude them from working with the Greens in government, which seems to be what Hush Minx was arguing.

          Keep in mind that the select committee had a National majority anyway. It’s membership included: Nicky Wagner (Chairperson), Maggie Barry, Jacqui Dean, Paul Goldsmith, Claudette Hauiti, Phil Heatley, Gareth Hughes (replaced by Catherine Delahunty), Raymond Huo, Moana Mackey, Eugenie Sage, Maryan Street and Andrew Williams.

          Granted, Labour not supporting Catherine Delahunty’s bill through the committee stage was stupid, but the issue here is that the bill would essentially mean a huge investment that the owners are unlikely to make or the closure of the Kawarau mill. Labour’s committee members have unfortunately chosen jobs over people’s health and the environment.

          However the committee doesn’t include David Shearer or his so-called tight five does it?

          • bad12 4.1.2.1.1

            Yes Kawarau and Kinlieth, the latter pouring 1000′s of liters of black water daily into the Waikato River which Aucklander’s later go on to drink are two of the larger thorn’s which will have to be addressed at some point in the future,

            The equation being Jobs V enviromental destruction, the question then being what is the commercial viability of both Kawarau and Kinlieth into the future,

            National having set the precedent with it’s 30 million bailout of the Tiwai Point Smelter dare i suggest that the next Labour/Green/Mana Government need look to putting up the monies necessary to ‘fully treat’ the waste water from both these ‘mills’ befor it is allowed to be discharged into our waterways,

            What’s the real cost of doing this, 100-200 million, small change when considered against the wasted resources being poured into roads of No Significance by the present Government. we cannot claim ‘clean green’ status unless we are willing to make it so…

            • grumpy 4.1.2.1.1.1

              A future Labour Greens government would be very interesting and throw up a lot of deals being done by Labour with National, just to keep the country going.

              The question will be – how would the Greens react to that?

              • Draco T Bastard

                throw up a lot of deals being done by Labour with National

                I hope so, it would be the fastest way possible for Labour to become a minor party.

                just to keep the country going.

                Except that it won’t. All it would do would be to enrich the already rich and make a lot of people even poorer – just as the neo-liberal paradigm has done over the last few decades.

            • Jackal 4.1.2.1.1.2

              Attn mods, you might want to move this discussion into open mike?

              bad12

              …dare i suggest that the next Labour/Green/Mana Government need look to putting up the monies necessary to ‘fully treat’ the waste water from both these ‘mills’ befor it is allowed to be discharged into our waterways,

              What’s the real cost of doing this, 100-200 million,

              Unfortunately there are no quick fixes here, being that the dangerous chemicals in the bleaching process are all difficult to remove from the vast amounts of water pulp and paper mills use. In fact there is no way to ‘fully treat’ such waste that I’m aware of and the mutagenic and genotoxic compounds in such discharge aren’t going away anytime soon.

              Kinleith Mill has a consent allowing for wastewater of up to 165000 m3 per day, of which it was originally expected that up to 155000m3/d may be discharged to the Kopakorahi Stream and 10000 m3/d to the Waituna Stream. NZ is currently receiving around 10c for every tonne of waste Kinleith produces. However the cost to clean up a tonne of toxic waste would easily exceed this minuscule reimbursement.

              With an estimated total of 10,060,000 tonnes of effluent discharge from pulp and paper mills into NZ waterways each year, I think your estimate of $100 to 200 million all up is on the very low side. I would suggest that $100 to $200 million would be the per anum cost and that’s before we even look at cleaning up any historic contamination. Unfortunately that cost would make many if not all of these outdated operations financially unviable.

              we cannot claim ‘clean green’ status unless we are willing to make it so…

              I totally agree, which is why we should stop such obviously false advertising.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    Dollars to donuts National’s incessant polling picked up the same trend as this poll. It would explain Key’s sudden decision to appear on Campbell live and to try and take personal control of the agenda of the GCSB debate.

  6. Sable 6

    I don’t trust polls that use small samples but I do hope based on the Campbell Live spy law poll that people are smart enough to see through National and give them bums rush this election.

  7. Colonial Viper 7

    As I said to McFlock when the 29% poll came out – this is just further proof that Labour is bouncing around a ~32%-33% true support level. You can expect some poll results dotted around there, some around 30% and some around 35%.

    What would really help with judging the Roy Morgan – knowing the % of undecideds. It is annoying that they don’t reveal that and it is a crucial figure.

    The prospect of a Government with 1/3 Green Ministers looks good eh?

    Looks like a lot of ABCs won’t even get a look into Cabinet because the seats will be taken by the Greens.

    • bad12 7.1

      i tend to agree with you on the size of the Labour core vote, we have to remember that as the Party’s to the right and beside National in the center have polled less to the point of non-existence on a regular basis it will be more likely National with the poster boy of the moment as Prime Minister who are judged to have ‘picked up’ most of that vote,

      Duck,dive and dodge has not worked for National over the GCSB and we can well imagine some serious head scratching going on amidst the denizens of the Beehives 9th floor as what seemed to them as a simple rejigging of Legislation to make the illegal legal as far as spying on it’s citizens goes has turned into the cluster-f**k of monumental proportions,

      It’s not as if that making of the illegal legal with a quick piece of Legislative or Regulatory change is anything new to this lot who’s silver spoons barely quiver when They are caught out reaching beyond the Law with their actions and intentions,

      If the GCSB legislation, as i believe it will, is to be the defining moment, the high tide mark for this particular abysmal government then we will see a far more critical mass media,(excepting the Herald and other fixated Jonolists), leading up to November 2014 only too willing to throw up the spying Legislation and uproar emanating over snapper quota as reasons to not vote for the incumbent shower only to willing to rain on the shrinking parade of freedom,

      i would suggest that the slippery slope of inevitable electoral defeat began for this government months ago and the dead cat has been given a number of bounces via the ‘rights’ willingness to manipulate certain ‘public images’ in an attempt to manipulate the wavering,

      The more ‘supportive’ polls of this government in the future will be a good read from here to the election as i believe that any slide in support in such ‘supportive organs’ will inevitably be magnified by the electorates actions on voting day…

    • Rogue Trooper 7.2

      if,…….there is a God soldier, if.

      • bad12 7.2.1

        LOLZ, i waver on that question, weekly i waver, but down at my basest level of human form i once took ‘a trip’ and truly saw…

    • McFlock 7.3

      And I think that assuming a constant level of support that is independent of political events means that any political activity is a waste of time.

      Alternatively, a sustained and somewhat desperate (towards the end) attack by garner and gower did cause a dip in the polls for Labour, although it failed to achieve its objective (a challenge against Shearer as a distraction from National’s fuckwittedness and as a nice winter horse race for the pundittierie and commentariat).

      Whether that dip is over is another matter – one poll result does not make a recovery, and the quicker ground is gained then the quicker it can be lost. I would be surprised if a 5 point gain was followed by another gain of any significance.

      • Colonial Viper 7.3.1

        My assumption of a true level of support around 32%-33% doesn’t say that the number won’t move around depending on what is happening in any given month. It just says that it will tend back to that level of support over time.

        Can that “true level of support” be shifted over the long term? Certainly, not denying that at all.

        • McFlock 7.3.1.1

          lol
          so the “true level of support” can shift both monthly and in the longer term.

          Sounds to me like estimating a “true level of support” based on multiple 2-3weekly poll results is just so much marsh gas.

  8. Disraeli Gladstone 8

    Using the Nate Silver / Anthony Wells approach to polling, I’m suggesting we’re probably seeing National at 45-46%, Labour 32-33% and Greens at 12-13%.

    So really, it’s all to play for, people. National and Labour+Green are in a dead heat.

    … we’re going to end up with Winston as Kingmaker again, aren’t we?

    • bad12 8.1

      Not necessarily Winston and NZFirst as the ‘kingmaker’ in the next Parliament, what may be the making or breaking of the next Labour lead Government could well be the Mana Party and Hone Harawira,

      Electoral support for the Maori party has all but collapsed and a 1/3 to a 1/2 of the Maori Party’s previous support crossing over with their votes to the Mana Party would see Mana with another MP in the 2015 Parliament off of it’s list entitlement,

      Mana’s Annette Sykes, should She stand again in the Waiariki electorate needs 1940 of the votes from the incumbent Maori Party MP who’s support base has all but evaporated to gain Mana a 3rd MP in the next Parliament,

      It’s interesting to see Labour Leader David Shearer expounding Neanderthalic first past the post politics with His speech after the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election that Labour will be going ‘hard out’ to win back all the Maori electorates at the 2014 election,

      The point being that Labour would do far better to in effect ‘concede’ the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electorates to Mana as doing so would ensure the ‘Left’ 2 more seats in the next Parliament while Labour ‘winning’ both those electorate seats would see that Party making no numerical gains in MP numbers and ‘the Left’ as a Parliamentary Bloc with 2 less seats,

      It would take real ‘Leadership’ from within Labour to ‘see’ this and i doubt that the Party mired in the past of neanderthalic first past the post politics has that leadership capable of first ‘seeing’ the situation for what it is under MMP and second be willing to take the necessary steps to build that coalition of Party’s necessary to give ‘the left’ that out-right victory in 2014 that this country so desperately needs…

      • Watching 8.1.1

        Bad12, could you explain the logic behind your numbers.

        You are saying that Mana will take a percentage of the MP 1.5% to give them enough votes for two seats – this will be filled by 1 electorate & 1 list seat. Then you also say that Annette Sykes wins a second electorate seat & doesn’t this mean she takes up Mana’s second seat so that they now have 2 electorate & 0 list seat under their entitlement .

        If the above happens then doesn’t Mana now need to increase its list vote double what you suggest to get a List seat.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1

          bad12 has made similarly incorrect mathematical claims in the past. I think he doesn’t understand how it works.

          • bad12 8.1.1.1.1

            L, Feel free to list these incorrect mathematical claims that i have made in the past…or…

            • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1.1.1

              http://thestandard.org.nz/winston-peters-king-maker/#comment-667901
              and again in
              http://thestandard.org.nz/winston-peters-king-maker/#comment-668106

              In those comment you suggest Mana will have 3 seats in parliament, from them winning Sykes’ seat and from gaining 0.2% of the party vote to 1.2% to gain another list seat. But as we explain, 1.2% party vote + 2 electorate seats = 2 seats, not 3.

            • Akldnut 8.1.1.1.1.2

              Ba12 “It’s interesting to see Labour Leader David Shearer expounding Neanderthalic first past the post politics with his speech after the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election that Labour will be going ‘hard out’ to win back all the Maori electorates at the 2014 election”

              Strange that you perceive this as Neanderthalic politics when Mana did exactly the same in Waitakere last election and the greens did this in all other seats notably Central Christchurch in 2008 elections.

              Pot…Kettle……

              Perhaps Mana should run a programe in Waiariki to re-educate voters on how to fill in their ballots and chase the 1000 odd that voted incorrectly. And with the decline in MP base support Mana would romp in or barring that Sykes could step aside and leave it for Labour.

              Swings both ways.

        • bad12 8.1.1.2

          Yep, happy to say i have the electorate V party list MP’s equation wrong in that comment, Mana would have to win something like 3% of the Party vote plus win both Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau to gain 3 seats in the next Parliament,

          A hard ask but not impossible…

          • alwyn 8.1.1.2.1

            Sorry but that is still wrong.
            If they got 3% of the party vote they would get, almost certainly, 4 seats in Parliament, provided that they won a single electorate seat. They do not have to win two electorate seats as winning one qualifies them to have additional list seats even though they don’t get to the 5% threshold..
            In 2008 ACT got a total of 5 seats (1 electorate and 4 list) by getting 3.65% of the vote. That is the closest I found to 3% to illustrate the point. The exact cutoff for list seats depends on the exact number of wasted votes.

            • bad12 8.1.1.2.1.1

              alwyn, aaaah mathematical pain, i will definitely take your word for it, will try and hunt out the MMP calculator later, i think there is one on the Electoral Commissions website,

              But in the meantime, just for arguments sake,

              What % of the Party vote would the Mana Party need for 1 list MP if that Party won both the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electorate seats in 2014???,

              Taking into account what TRP is saying that 1.3% of the Party vote would simply be cancelled out by the winning of the 2nd electorate seat???…

              • alwyn

                On the 2011 results the last seat went to National with a quotient of 9048 votes.
                Assuming the same pattern in the next election the Mana party would have to get just over 5 times that figure, or about 46,000 votes. That would be about 2.1% of the votes cast.
                That would give them 1 electorate seat and 2 list seats or 2 electorate seats and 1 list seat.
                No electorate seats? No list seats as they would be below the 5% threshold.
                There is an explanation of the Saint Lague formula and how it works at
                http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011 in the Statistics section.
                Bloody awful thing to follow.

                • bad12

                  LOLZ, thanks for that, while you have been there i have been having my little neuron sack seriously twisted over at the Electoral Commissions calculator, which sounds about as easy to try and calculate a forward look at ‘might be’ results as where you have looked,

                  The most i could figure from that little piece of education was that on 2011 results Mana need another 6000 votes to be sure of a list seat along with Hone Harawira retaining Te Tai Tokerau…

                  • alwyn

                    I have tried it to. I thought your number was a bit high as my calculation says that a bit over 3 * 9048 should be enough.
                    I put in a Mana vote of 27,500 (about 3,300 more than they got) and that gives them a total of 2 seats. As one expects (see my comment about National getting the last seat above) National drops to 58.
                    That calculator is horrible, isn’t it. It took me 3 goes to get it right. The first time I had National vote at only one tenth, the second time I missed out the Maori party winning any electoral seats and the THIRD time I managed to get the numbers in properly.
                    It says you can change the numbers by using the back button but it doesn’t work. It just gives you a new blank sheet.

                  • alwyn

                    A final, very last word on this, just in case you see it.
                    I have done the numbers exactly and proved them on that calculator.
                    Assuming that every party except Mana gor the actual number of votes that they did in 2011 the critical number of votes for Mana to get a second seat would be worked out as follows.
                    The last persom to get in was the 59th National MP with a quotient of 1058636/117
                    Mana, to get a second seat, would have to get more than 3 times this number, which works out as 27,144.512
                    Thus at 27144 votes they get one 1 seat and National get 59.
                    At 27145 votes they get 2 seats and National drop to 58.
                    If you are really keen you can put the numbers into that calculator and check this.
                    Alternatively, if you have any sense you can take my word for it.
                    Since Mana actually got 24,168 votes they were 2977 votes short.

      • Te Reo Putake 8.1.2

        Bad, I don’t think wanting to win all the Maori seats is a reflection of FPP thinking. Electorate seats are just as important under MMP and I still get annoyed at the naivety of the left voters who wasted their electorate vote on a minor party, enabling the likes of Bennett and Kaye to win the seats. If you don’t think having a tory as your local MP is a problem, you are clearly not a beneficiary or part of the working poor needing assistance from the local electorate office.

        And I don’t see how your maths works; the left have the same number of seats whoever wins them. The only improvement on that is if Mana only win one seat and gain a second, overhang, seat by getting a party vote above 1.3% ( I think that’s the threshold?). If Sykes wins a second seat for Mana, that covers the overhang, so they still only have 2 MPs and the left total is unchanged.

        Having said that, I do stand to be corrected if I’ve misunderstood the overhang effect. It’s not an issue for the party I support, so I haven’t given it much thought.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1

          An overhang is when a party wins more electorate seats than it’s party vote would enable them too, eg Maori Party has an overhang because they won 3 electorate seats, but their share of the party vote should only entitle them to 2.

          A party that wins 1 electorate and then has enough party vote for 1 additional list seat does not create an overhang.

          A party that wins 1 electorate but not enough party vote to support 1 seat (eg, United Future in 2014, although in 2011 I think they got enough party vote for 1 seat) would create an overhang.

          A party that wins enough party vote for 10 list seats, but only has 9 or fewer list candidates on their list, would create an underhang. For example the Bill & Ben party had only 2 list candidates, so had they won 3 seats worth (including 1 electorate to avoid the 5% threshold), they would have had an underhang by 1.

        • bad12 8.1.2.2

          OK put aside the list MP for the moment, i see what you are saying regarding having 2 electorate MP’s V the % of party vote gained and you might be right with your point there,

          However, i believe you are wrong when you consider the 2 seats Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau against Labours % of the Party vote,

          Lets use the current Roy Morgan as our point of reference, should Labour gain 34% of the Party vote plus win the 2 electorates, Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau, Labour will first have to count the electorate seats won and then add to it’s MP’s the number which takes its MP’s to 34% of the House,

          Should Mana win both those electorates, Te Tai Tonga and Waiariki, Labour will still end up with the same number of MP’s in the House as it would have if it,Labour, had won those 2 electorates, 34%,

          As Mana already hold Te Tai Tokerau this scenario would give the ‘left’ an extra seat in the House, that of Waiariki which neither Labour or Mana currently hold,

          This scenario is Labour win Waiariki +34% of party vote= 34% of seats, if Mana win= 2 seats+Labour with 34% of seats= i extra seat in left bloc…

          • Lanthanide 8.1.2.2.1

            You overcomplicate it.

            It’s as simple as: electorate seat won by Maori Party, who are “right leaning”, vs electorate seat won by Mana, who are on the left.

            Labour has nothing to do with it.

            • bad12 8.1.2.2.1.1

              Nope you over-simplify, the Maori Party and in particular Tariana Turia are center left leaning with the codicil that Turia despises the Labour Party which is the sole reason for that Party’s coalition with the present National Government,

              The fact that you are blind to the actual numbers is possibly a matter for you to take up with your optician or other professional,

              Labour should they win both the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electoral seats and then find themselves with no gains in actual seat numbers in the House will have had everything to do with ‘it’,

              MMP is a matter of building coalitions, Labour as the perceived biggest player in any left bloc coalition should be focused on the building process not just as a matter of convenience after an election but constructively doing so during the electoral cycle between elections,

              If MMP has shown us one thing it is that smaller coalition partners are always first to be punished by the electorate for the perceived sins of supporting the major bloc of that coalition,

              Labour then need to be always looking for ways in which support for likely coalition partners can be bolstered…

        • bad12 8.1.2.3

          TRP, No No No, ”electoral seats are just as important under MMP”, No No No that is simply a hangover of thinking from FFP elections,

          The only time electoral seats are more important, in terms of forming a Government, than the % of Party vote is in the unlikely situation where Labour could win more electorate seats than it’s proportion of the Party Vote would have given them,

          S**t i lived in Bill from Dipton’s electorate for a couple of years and s did that while a beneficiary and it made no difference to me,

          If Labour are so concerned about the plight of the electorates where there is a Tory incumbent they only need a higly visible Labour Party office in that electorate with a direct line to a ‘buddy MP’s office’ at the Parliament, which could handle issues which only an MP could be said to be able to sort out,

          ”The left have the same number of seats no matter who wins them, No No No, more FFP thinking, consider this, Labour have a cup of tea with Hone and Annette Sykes in the the Waiariki electorate, Sykes wins, Labour would then have their 34% of MP’s plus 2 Mana Party MPs in the House,

          Should however Labour win the Waiariki electorate they will have exactly the same 34% of MP’s in the House but only 1 Mana Party vote in support in the House…

          • Te Reo Putake 8.1.2.3.1

            Yes yes yes, Bad. I gave the reason why electorate seats are important, but I guess you are “clearly not a beneficiary or part of the working poor needing assistance from the local electorate office.”

            And as for te mana, unless Hone holds the balance of power, they’re irrelevent. Hone’s hardly likely to vote down left legislation, is he? So his vote is effectively on board already.

            • bad12 8.1.2.3.1.1

              Yes TRP keep up with such arrogance and Labour will find itself right where it is now in terms of Governance,

              So you think that Labour will just throw Mana a bone as National does to the Maori Party and Mana will roll over for a tummy tickle do you,

              You and Labour are in for a big surprise…

              PS, and as far as Labour caring for the plight of beneficiaries, fucking save the crocodile tears, Labour from Douglas’s taxation of beneficiaries to the abysmal Clark’s decision to exclude beneficiaries from Working for Families to the Shearer beneficiary bashing speech have shown all beneficiaries that Labour couldn’t give a big fat one about them,

              That’s a pattern of beneficiary bashing as bad if not worse than the equally shitty record of National…

              • Te Reo Putake

                Yeah, and your attitude enables Paula Bennett and her Tory ilk. I’ll keep my ‘arrogance’ over your ignorance any day, Bad. Like it or not, life is better for beneficiaries under a left government generally and your electorate voting to assist the election of tory MP’s does not help them a jot.

                Hone knows this wider truth, which is why he will, if re-elected, support most of what the next Government does, even if he is not part of that Government.

                • bad12

                  LOLZ, TRP, you have convinced me of one thing at least, that being that my Party vote will be going to Mana in 2014 and my electorate vote to Russell Norman, thanks,

                  That’s an amazing little quibble you have put up there, ”life for a beneficiary is better under Labour than National”,

                  What a grand reason to vote for Labour, ”vote Labour a Party that doesn’t put the boot into beneficiaries as hard as what National does”,

                  The rest of your little rant is pretty much low brow stuff, do your knuckles scrape when you perambulate,

                  Everything i have said in this post has been to do with the Maori electorates none of which are likely to ever vote for the nonexistent National candidates, and the fact that you cannot bring yourself to concede that i am correct when i state that in 2014 should Labour win the Waiariki electorate ‘the left’ in the next Parliament will be down 1 vote is laughable but sad,

                  Now that’s what i call enabling a National Government…

        • QoT 8.1.2.4

          the naivety of the left voters

          Because they must be stupid, it’s not like they might be rejecting the anointed Labour candidate for good reasons of their own.

    • burt 8.2

      I don’t think Winston can be called the king maker. Any leader who relies on Winston to achieve power at any price could hardly be called a King !

      Perhaps we could call him the “sell out maker” – You can’t call somebody a leader when they require the support of such corrupt self serving people to “lead”. They are a sell out – not a leader.

      • bad12 8.2.1

        That’s about as pathetic a comment i would expect from the shrinking wing-nut brigade of commenters here at the Standard,

        Are you talking about the Winston who was pilloried in the Parliament and the media for having ‘taken’ a free fish dinner from the Veller brothers,

        Forgotten in the smooch fest tongue’n’groove tango surrounding the current Slippery little Shyster we have as Prime Minister is the small fact that immediately after His election He was more than happy to take a ‘free ride’ in a Veller brother’s helicopter from Hamilton to Auckland so anything you accuse Peters of has simply been magnified by the current incumbent in a ‘winner takes all’ thumbing of the nose at the electorate…

        • burt 8.2.1.1

          OK, so Winston isn’t (in your opinion) as bad as Key… Well it’s just awesome that being accountable under the law is in your world treated like a kid caught stealing biscuits – You can shout and point at someone else and say they did it too….

          God forbid we judge Peters according to the ethics and the standards we expect from MPs – wow just let him do what he wants because you think somebody else is worse….

          Grow up – most kids learn by the time they get to high school that pointing and shouting “they did it too” isn’t going to get them out of trouble – baby brain partisan hacks don’t seem to learn this lesson when they are in their self serving justification mode for their own team.

          • bad12 8.2.1.1.1

            Your latest little snivel of a comment is simply more of the wing-nut habit of putting words into a commenters mouth that they have neither uttered nor intended by the contents of a previous comment,

            Utter Bullshit in other words, if Winston Peters actions in accepting a free meal from the Veller brothers was as you wing-nuts put it corruption then your golden boy Slippery the Prime Minister has displayed as much if not more corruption and hypocrisy by at a later date accepting from the Veller brothers a free helicopter ride,

            Apply the same words in your last paragraph above to your own attitude…

  9. Aotearoean 9

    Rumour has it that Winnie the Poo has bought a new set of clothes!!1

  10. Core_Labour_Voter (Tory troll) 10

    Why do you guys think this poll is not accurate enough? I think the GCSB and Snapper quota issue has taken its toll and people are coming back in droves to Labour and Greens. We should all be publishing these poll results all over the place.

    • karol 10.1

      It does match John Campbell’s claim that Nat’s polling showed Key was taking a hit over the GCSB Bill and hence Key turning up on Campbell Live.

      • Akldnut 10.1.1

        Yeah I would feel a lot better if TV3 kept the issue alive (get inside voters heads) by plastering it over their news bulletins for the next week or so.

  11. Sanctuary 11

    Question – when was the last poll that showed Labour and the Greens both up at National’s expense?

    • karol 11.1

      July-Aug 2012

    • Bunji 11.2

      Both up? usually one or ‘tother.
      But for Roy Morgan: early April 2013, early March 2013…

      But this is a biggie. Mssive swing – probably a big outlier to the right to a small outlier to the left… that’s why it’s important to have lots of polls (that only Roy Morgan does), so you can see the trend.
      Interesting no press release from Roy Morgan – guess they’re a bit obsessed over Oz election at the mo.
      And obviously no breathless comment from our media. No Press Release = they didn’t hear about it…

      • karol 11.2.1

        March-April 2013 was a very slight rise by both Labour and Greens – Labour up 1.0; Greens up 0.5.

  12. Te Reo Putake 12

    New Roy Morgan’s out and its a doozy! Lab/Green 48, Nats 44.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5113-new-zealand-voting-intention-august-2013-201308200137

    If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win.

    The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 128 (down 0.5%) with 58% (down 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

    Gary Morgan says:

    “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll contains good news for the Opposition Labour (34%, up 5%) and Greens (14%, up 4%) – now at their highest level of combined support in four months since early April 2013. The Greens have jumped to their highest level of support in a year since August 2012.

    “The huge swings in support come as the contentious GCSB (Government Communications Security Bureau) ‘Spying’ Bill is heavily debated in Parliament. The Bill, which will increase the Government’s powers of surveillance over all New Zealand citizens, has faced strong opposition in Parliament. Prime Minister John Key has insisted on the importance of passage of the bill in the fight against terrorism claiming there are people living in New Zealand who had been trained by Al-Qaeda.

    “Opposition to the bill is not just inside Parliament, with the Law Society saying there are ‘fundamental flaws in the GCSB Bill’ that minor adjustments insisted on by Independent MP Peter Dunne for his support do not alter.”

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      New Roy Morgan’s out and its a doozy! Lab/Green 48, Nats 44.

      it’s a solid result, but reinforces a Labour true level of 32% or 33% +/- 3%.

  13. amirite 13

    I now expect the coordinated attack by the MSM on Shearer and his snapper in an attempt to hike up Nats’ ratings.

  14. tracey 14

    You can’t call somebody a leader when they require the support of such corrupt self serving people to “lead”. They are a sell out – not a leader.

    welll said burt… key is being propped up by banks isnt he?

  15. Grantoc 15

    There are polls and there are polls.

    Today’s Fairfax poll contradicts yesterday’s Morgan poll, showing National still in a commanding position and Labour still hovering in that zone just above 30%.

    Interestingly, the Greens in the Fairfax poll come in quite a bit lower too. Perhaps their voter support is quite volatile.

    So what to make of it all? Probably that nothing much has changed actually. National is still pretty dominant. Labour is not getting any traction. The Greens jump around a bit. NZ First may or may not be a player. This seems to be a pretty solid pattern looking back at all the polls over the last 18 mnts or so.

    • lprent 15.1

      So what to make of it all?

      That it is a poll by a different company and using a different methodology? A poll taken every two months or so has little credibility for looking at trends compared to one taken every two weeks.

      I notice you didn’t put in the delta’s from the previous poll by the same company. Nor did you state when this poll and the previous one from the same company were taken. Why is that?

      It is interesting reading what unthinking fools think about polls… Bit tedious though as they all seem to make the same moronic mistakes.

      • Grantoc 15.1.1

        Imprent

        I don’t agree that because a poll is taken only every 2 months compared with a poll taken every two weeks that it lacks credibility with regards to picking up trends. If it was a one off poll, you could argue that, but like other regular pollsters, the Fairfax poll has been around for a long time.

        Besides what actually is important is methodological rigour; especially around question design, statistical analysis etc. I’m not in a position to say whether the Morgan poll is superior in this regard than the Fairfax poll, or the other way around.

        Also important for getting a real handle on the trends is to combine the results from all relevant polls and see what that says about patterns.

        • lprent 15.1.1.1

          Have a *close* look at the variability of the Roy Morgan polls every two weeks. Then consider that every other poll has exactly the same kinds of statistical variability. RM literally bounces around by ~ +/- 4% from a mean for the two main parties.

          So in the last poll there was 7% decrease in National’s support compared to a similar increase in the previous poll. Still roughly within the statistical but on the extremes of it. If you look over a series of 4 for a two month period, then lo and behold – you can actually see the overall trend without the statistical variability screwing it up.

          But a poll that comes out every two months has exactly the same level of variability – but you can’t really see it…

          Remember that what the polling companies are sampling isn’t really the overall voting population. It is a subset that represents the population that they are sampling from that is meant to represent the overall population. Factors like them calling people on phones makes a hell of a different. Incidentally that is why you can’t rely on the actual percentages – because they don’t reflect the population that will actually vote.

          Trends and rough percentages are all that you can rely upon. Methodology on a single question that amounts to “If the election was held today, which party would you vote for” is largely irrelevant (because that is what they are reporting on). But making sure that the population you are sampling in is consistent. The frequency you take the polls in also helps as it is part of the methodology – it helps to even out the inconsistencies in method and to highlight the natural variability.

          If you look at the news organisations polls you can see a remarkable consistency. They look to be designed to have enough change to make a good news story each time…

          Now consider that some dork (yourself for instance) will look at a single point reflecting one of those extremes every two months and start the usual pontification about “what it all means”. If you are really silly you’ll compare the values between two different polling companies for extra meaningless waffle.

          combine the results from all relevant polls

          Yeah right. There are 4 polls that happen about every 2 months. Then there is one poll that happens every 2 weeks.

          What do you think weights the combined poll results the most? The 4 polls from a single companies sampling method or the 4 polls from from 4 separate companies sampling methods.

          Bearing in mind the RM has been consistently closest to the actual results over the last 3 elections, and without having the abrupt changes in angle that the others show at election time as their previously undisclosed undecided population “makes up their mind” – which would you look at?.

          If the other polls weren’t all pulling National upwards and the minor parties downwards mid-term (which is what they do), then a composite would be useful. But you really need a *lot* more polls and competitive polling companies to make it viable. The polls in the US or even aussie tend to be more accurate as composite polls simply because there are polls coming out every few days. Here our population of polls is so low that a single shyster company can drag them anywhere.

          As I said before – people who haven’t thought about polls say the same daft things over and over again without *thinking*

          • Grantoc 15.1.1.1.1

            All very interesting Iprent. But your elaborate defence of the validity of one poll over the rest doesn’t stack up.

            Have you heard of Nate Silver? He is the statistician, who amongst other things precisely predicted the outcome of the last US presidential election – calling each state accurately. He blogs for the New York Times.

            How did he do this? By analysing at all of the polling data from every available poll in each State and drawing conclusions that led to his ability to make accurate predictions.

            Interetsingly he was attacked by the Republicans because, they, like you, wanted desperately to believe that their ‘pet’ polls were more accurate and better than all others.

            Check him out Iprent. he has more credibility as far as I’m concerned on polling and how they work and what they mean than you do.

  16. Lol, lets speak about trends.

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    Labour | 25-08
  • Home buyer subsidy discredited in Oz
    Treasury advised against National’s policy of ramping up home buyer subsidies after it was discredited in Australia because it pushed house prices even higher, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Documents released under the OIA (attached) show Treasury advised the...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Nursing hours explain turnover and high-stress culture
    A staff survey supports concerns nursing staff at Dunedin Hospital are under increasing pressure and that the emergency department is in a critical state, says Labour’s Associate Health Spokesperson David Clark.  “An ED nursing survey at Dunedin found that 80...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Underhand tactics prove case for axing donations
    Revelations that schools are using underhand tactics to coerce donations from cash-strapped parents further highlights the need for Labour's plan to increase funding so they aren't dependent on contributions from parents, Labour's Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “By law New...
    Labour | 24-08
  • National applies band-aid to housing crisis
    The Government’s flagship housing announcement is a band-aid approach that will push up prices rather than solve the housing crisis, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “House sales to first home buyers have collapsed as a direct result of the Government’s...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Climate change focus on the now for the future
    A Labour Governmentwill put in place a comprehensive climate change strategy focusing on bothmitigation and adaptation, establish an independent Climate Commission andimplement carbon budgeting, says Labour Climate Change spokesperson MoanaMackey."This is about future-proofing our economy. Making the transition to alow-carbon...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Labour’s 21st century transport pledge
    The next Labour-led Government will create a 21st century transport system for New Zealand that promotes the most efficient and sustainable combination of transport options, says Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Labour will rebalance the Government's transport spending away from...
    Labour | 23-08
  • Housing under National: the facts
    1.       House prices in Auckland Council valuations indicate Auckland house prices have gone up by one-third over the last three years. (Auckland Council) The average Auckland house price has gone up by nearly $225,000 since 2008, up over $75,000 in...
    Labour | 23-08
  • Labour irons out low income tax issue
    The increasing casualisation of work has led to many New Zealand families being disadvantaged through the tax they pay, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. "Many low paid workers are having to work two or three jobs to make ends meet...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Cornered Government comes out swinging
    The National Government is so desperate to keep its dead-in-the-water expert teachers policy alive, it has refused to rule out forcing schools to participate through legislation, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “John Key today attacked the Educational Institute for...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Pacific people continue to go backwards under National
    A report from Victoria University highlights the fact that Pacific people are continuing to go backwards under a National Government, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “The report shows the largest inequality increases were in smoking, obesity, tertiary...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Wellington transport plan needs to keep moving
    The failure of the Transport Agency to properly look at alternatives to the Basin Reserve flyover is not a good reason for further delays to improving transport in Wellington, Labour MPs Grant Robertson and Annette King say. “The Board of...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Labour’s focus on inequality, kids and better job prospects
    Tackling child poverty and removing barriers to people working part time to enhance their prospects of moving into a fulltime job are highlights of Labour’s Social Development policy. Releasing the policy today, spokesperson Sue Moroney said while part-time work was...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Political staff should give answers under oath
    The Inspector General of Security and Intelligence should use her full statutory powers to question witnesses under oath about the leak of SIS information, says Labour MP Phil Goff. “Leakage of confidential information from the SIS for political purposes is...
    Labour | 21-08
  • High dollar, hands-off Govt sends workers to dole queue
    The loss of up to 100 jobs at Croxley stationery in Auckland is devastating news for their families and the local Avondale community, Labour’s Employment, Skills and Training spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The company’s inability to compete in international markets...
    Labour | 21-08
  • National’s flagship education policy dead in the water
    National’s plan to create executive principals and expert teachers is effectively dead in the water with news that 93 percent of primary teachers have no confidence in the scheme, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The fact that teachers are...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Dunedin will be a knowledge and innovation centre under Labour
    Dunedin will become a knowledge and innovation centre under a Labour Government that will back local businesses, support technology initiatives and fund dynamic regional projects, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Nowhere has the National Government’s short-sightedness been more apparently than...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Inquiry into SIS disclosures the right decision
    Labour MP Phil Goff says the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has done the right thing by launching an inquiry into the disclosure of SIS documents about a meeting between himself and the agency’s former director-general. “This inquiry is necessary...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Labour – supporting and valuing carers and the cared for
    Placing real value on our elderly and the people who care for them will be a priority for a Labour Government, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. Releasing Labour’s Senior Citizens policy today David Cunliffe promised that a Labour Government would...
    Labour | 20-08
  • By Hoki! It’s Labour’s fisheries policy
    A Labour Government will protect the iconic Kiwi tradition of fishing by improving access to the coast, protecting the rights of recreational fishers and reviewing snapper restrictions, Labour’s Fisheries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Catching a fish from the rocks, beach...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Mighty River – Mighty Profits – Mighty hard to swallow
    Mighty River Power’s profit increase of 84 per cent is simply outrageous, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “Demand for electricity is flat or declining yet the company has made enormous profits. It is the latest power company to celebrate...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Collins’ actions were wrong, not unwise
    John Key’s moral compass remains off-kilter as he cannot bring himself to declare Judith Collins’ actions outright wrong, not simply ‘unwise’, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “Under pressure John Key is finally shifting his stance but his failure to condemn...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Public servants behaving with more integrity than their masters
    The State Services Commission's new report on the integrity of our state services reflects the yawning gap between the behaviour of public servants and that of their political masters, Labour's State Services spokesperson Maryan Street says. “This report, which surveyed...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Phil Twyford Speech to NZCID
    "Labour's plan to build more and build better: how new approaches to housing, transport and urban development will deliver cities that work" Phil Twyford, Labour Party spokesperson on housing, transport, Auckland issues, and cities.  ...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Labour commits to independent Foreign Affairs and Trade
    “Labour is committed to New Zealand’s Foreign Affairs and Trade policy being independent and proactive, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “We are a small but respected country. Our voice and actions count in international affairs. Labour will take a...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Auckland Broadcasting Debate 2014
    Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Auckland Broadcasting Debate 2014...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Petition for Governor General of New Zealand to Investigate all the allegat...
      Now we see the inquiry will be a whitewash, that is secret, won’t be consulted with the Opposition, will have limited scope and will ignore Nicky Hager’s book, we must demand the Governor General step in and demand an...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Ashburton, 1 September 2014
    I NEVER WENT BACK to Aramoana after the killing. I had been a frequent visitor to the tiny seaside village back in the late 1970s and throughout the 80s. Its tall cliffs and broad beaches providing a colourful backdrop to...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Checkmate in 1 move – how could Slater have known what was in OIA request...
    And now we get down to the final few moves before checkmate. If the following investigation is right, how could Slater and Collins have known what was in the Secret Intelligence Service Official Information Act request that hadn’t been released...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • The Edge Posts Naked Photos Of Jennifer Lawrence Without Consent
    Today the Edge website – owned by Media Works – published fully naked photographs of Jennifer Lawrence without her consent. It is not OK to publish naked media of any woman without her consent, full stop. It is absolutely disgusting...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Bomber, Laila and Maggie – a highlight from Auckland Broadcasting Debate ...
    Bomber, Laila and Maggie – a highlight from Auckland Broadcasting Debate 2014...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, how good was I i...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Maggie Barry slags Laila Harre & blogger, audience erupt
    The Coalition for Better Broadcasting held their public meeting in Auckland last night and it became a fiery shouting match when Maggie Barry decided to slag Laila Harre and me off. 250 people packed into the Pioneer Hall off High...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • It has to be a full independent public inquiry and Key MUST front
      You know things are bad when images like this start appearing in the media.  It isn’t a ‘left wing conspiracy’ to point out the over whelming evidence of what is clearly a right wing conspiracy! If it looks like a conspiracy, sounds like a conspiracy...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Political Party social media stats – National playing Dirty Politics on s...
    Interesting data from friend of the blog, Marty Stewart, on social media likes and it shows an interesting question that post Dirty Politics should probably get asked…   …it’s interesting that Key has so many personal followers.  One wonders if...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • The depth of the National rot and the compliance of our news media
    I’m so tired. Aren’t you? I don’t want to read the news anymore. It’s awful and I feel ashamed of it. We live in a country that people all over the world would give an arm, a leg; their life...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Conservative Party candidate links smacking ban with suicide, sexually tran...
    If Chemtrails, faked moon landings and climate change denial weren’t enough, welcome to your new Minister for Spanking,  Edward Saafi... The anti-smacking law is to blame for youth suicide, youth prostitution and even sexually-transmitted infections, a leading Conservative party candidate...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • A brief word on the canonisation of Matthew Hooton
    Before we all start the canonisation of Matthew Hooton, let’s consider some home truths here shall we? While the Wellington Ruminator Blog, the blog who was previously mates with Judith Collins, now seems to have a crush on Matthew Hooton… …I...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • A brief word on undercover cops in bars
    Dunedin police booze operation labelled ‘creepy’ Undercover police officers drank in Dunedin bars as part of an operation targeting liquor licensing offences. While police said the inaugural operation was a success — with most bars found compliant — the Hospitality...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Judith Collins press conference
    Judith Collins press conference...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Angry Lawyer – Collins, Odgers, Williams and legal ethics
    We deserve better lawyers than Judith Collins Three of the worst offenders exposed in Dirty Politics are lawyers: Judith Collins, Cathy Odgers, and Jordan Williams. What Nicky Hager exposed them doing would be out of line for anyone, but from...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Necessary Defence
    Increasingly climate change is becoming the main fracture line between political parties. Where political parties stand on climate change defines political parties and movements like no other issue. The Mana Movement like the Maori Party it sprang from, came out...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Why it is all over for John Key
    Image: Melanie D I’ve been confident that National will lose this election and that our focus should be on what a progressive Government needs to establish as its agenda in the first 100 days. Past that point, the establishment pushes back...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • A brief word to everyone who voted National in 2011
    I received this interesting email from a National Party supporter today… …let me say this to anyone who voted National last election – you should be ashamed by what has been revealed and what your vote ended up enabling but...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • EXCLUSIVE: Déjà Vu All Over Again: John Ansell confirms his participation...
      THE MAN BEHIND the Iwi-Kiwi billboards that very nearly won the 2005 election for Don Brash and the National Party has confirmed his involvement in businessman John Third’s and former Act MP Owen Jennings’ campaign to drive down the...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Public Broadcasting Auckland debate 6.30pm tonight now with Colin Craig &am...
    The Coalition for Better Broadcasting debate on public broadcasting happens tonight at 6.30pm in Auckland at the Pioneer Women’s Hall, High Street, Auckland City.  In the light of Dirty Politics and the manipulation of the media, public broadcasting is more important for...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Winners & Losers in Collins sacking plus what’s the latest on Slater...
      Make no mistake, there was no way this was a resignation, it’s a face saving way out for Collins, she was sacked.  My understanding is that National internal polls are haemorrhaging and that the powers that be within National...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Third party propaganda attacks incoming Labour-led government
    . . Further to a report by Daily Blogger, Chris Trotter, on receiving information regarding planned attack-billboards, the following billboard is highly visible to traffic on the southbound lane of the Wellington motorway, just prior to the Murphy St turn-off....
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Labour wins the Internet
    I’m sure I’m not the only one who tried to vote online for the leaders debate and couldn’t because the website was down. The next option was the txt vote, 75c a pop of course. So I’m not surprised that...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – Rotherham and the need to challenge willful bl...
    I haven’t been following the events in Rotterham too closely.  I’ve read about the basic issues and the culture of silence that stopped action been taken even after complaints were made.  That culture of silence is incredibly familiar, and described...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Review: Hairspray
      Oh Hairspray! What fun! Somehow I managed to miss the movie when it came out, I had no idea really what it was about though I felt it had a vague relation to High School Musical. In retrospect, that...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Mounting global pressure against Timor-Leste’s ‘death sentence’ media...
    East Timor’s José Belo … courageous fight against ‘unconstitutional’ media law.Image: © Ted McDonnell 2014 CAFÉ PACIFIC and the Pacific Media Centre Online posted challenges to the controversial ‘press law’ nine months ago when it emerged how dangerous this draft...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Spies, Lies and When Campaigns Are Fried
    Like most of the rest of the nation’s political classes, I was eagerly affixed to TV One from 12:30 on Saturday afternoon to witness the downfall of Judith Collins.Whenever we witness the crumbling of a titan of the political landscape...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • BREAKING: Whaleoil crushes Crusher
    Judith ends up shooting herself A new email has been released suggesting that Collins was attempting to undermine the head of Serious Fraud Office with the help of far right hate speech merchant Cameron Slater. Unbelievable!   She has been forced...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • BREAKING: Rumours Judith Collins gone at lunchtime
    Brook Sabin first of the mark with rumours Judith Collins is about to resign – PM announcing a statement at 12.30pm… …Paddy follows… …Vance confirms..   …if Collins is gone by lunchtime, it will be because the PM understands the...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • BREAKING: UPDATE on DIRT ALERT!
    Thanks to the information passed to Chris Trotter by “Idiot/Savant” from No Right Turn it is now possible to identify at least some of the persons involved in this latest example of attack politics. What follows is Chris’s response to Idiot/Savant’s timely assistance: Well done...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • Comparing burning puppets, hip hop lyrics and drunk student chants to black...
    Watching the mainstream media try and obscure Cunliffe’s surprise win in the leaders debate  is a reminder the Press Gallery is in depressed shock. The current spin line from the Wellington bubble media in the wake of Dirty Politics is that...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • Why has it all gone quiet on Charter Schools?
    They’re one of ACT’s flagship policies and the National Party have been gung ho in supporting them. So how come we’re not hearing Hekia Parata, Jamie Whyte, Catherine Isaac, et al singing from the rafters about what a resounding success charter...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • Moment of Truth – September 15th – Auckland Town Hall
    Moment of Truth – September 15th – Auckland Town Hall...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • EXCLUSIVE: Dirt Alert! Are the Greens and Labour about to become the target...
    WE’VE SEEN IT ALL BEFORE. In 2005 pamphlets began appearing all over New Zealand attacking Labour and the Greens. For a couple of days both the parties targeted and the news media were flummoxed. Who was behind such an obviously...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • The Donghua Liu Affair: the Press Council’s decision
    . . 1. Prologue . The Donghua Liu Affair hit  the headlines on 18 June, with allegations that David Cunliffe wrote a letter in 2003,  on  behalf of  business migrant, Donghua Liu. Four days later, on Sunday 22 June, the...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • The difference between Cunliffe & Key in the debate
    It was with much interest that I watched the leaders debate on Thursday night.  I watched with an open mind, always happy to have my opinion changed.  Maybe John Key is all the wonderful things that many say about him,...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Denis Tegg – When Did We Agree To Our Data Being Shared with ...
    New shocking evidence has emerged from Edward Snowden’s trove of documents about a program called ICREACH under which data collected by the GCSB is shared with 23 US spy agencies. Under new sharing agreements which appear to have commenced immediately after...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Why Internet MANA are the best political friends the Greens could ever get
    Metiria at last nights #GreenRoomNZ: standing on the shoulders and camera cases of giants  NZers, regardless of political spectrum or apathy level, have a wonderful beach cricket egalitarianism about us. If we can objectively conclude a winner, then that person...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Sick of the Sleaze? Protest against National’s dirty politics THIS SATURD...
    Sick of the Sleaze? Protest now dammit! Three weeks before the election, action is being taken across the country voicing a rejection of the National Government’s track record and direction. Rallies are being held in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Sir Edmund Thomas – Address at Nicky Hager public meeting
    I regard it as privilege to chair this public meeting. I have long had the greatest admiration for Nicky Hager’s work, and nothing I have read or heard in the media over the past week or so has caused me...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Labour and New Zealand Superannuation
    The kerfuffle in the wake of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics has had a detrimental impact on our discussion of economic policies. Signs are that the main beneficiaries of the dirty politics revelations will be Winston Peters and Colin Craig; certainly National suffered...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Mike Hosking and the Leader’s Debat...
    A few weeks ago I blogged that Mike Hosking was a terrible choice as moderator for the TV One Party Leader’s Debate, because he is so embarrassingly biased in favour of John Key. So I watched the show with curiosity,...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Democracy and Cancer: A critical analysis of Dirty Politics
    Twenty years ago, England’s renowned television playwright Denis Potter died of pancreatic cancer.  Readers may recall his two masterpieces ‘Pennies from Heaven’ and ‘The Singing Detective’.  During a final television interview with Melvyn Bragg, Potter declared that he had named...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Cunliffe beats Key in First Leaders debate
    I watched the First Leaders debate at the Green Party #GreenRoomNZ, they were very kind to include me and the atmosphere was great. The debate was a resounding victory to Cunliffe. He won Round 1, Round 2, Round 3 and...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • LIVE STREAM: The Green Room Leader’s Debate from 6:30pm
    The Green Room will be hosted by media commentator Russel Brown, and will feature Green Co-leaders Metiria Turei and Russel Norman responding to the debate live, along with comment from thought leaders and commentators. ‘The Green Room’ 6pm – 8.30pm...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • How many taxpayer funded staff does John Key need to prepare for a Leaders ...
    John Key is currently at the Auckland Stamford Plaza with 40 staff, 4 undercover police cars and an entire floor booked out in preparation for tonights Leader’s debate. Isn’t 40 staff including coms, flown up to Auckland for a debate...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • A brief word on National Party Rodney MP, Mark Mitchell
    MP considers legal action against Nicky HagerThe National MP says he is considering taking a defamation case after the September 20 election.“Someone needs to be held accountable,” he said. Oh really champ? Brothers and sisters, there is a long way...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Greens advertise on Whaleoil – but not on The Daily Blog?
    PaknSave have shown ethical compass and blocked adverts on Whaleoil, yet the Greens are advertising on Whaleoil, and not The Daily Blog? I would imagine there are far more potential Green voters on The Daily Blog then ever are on...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • It’s about the stupid economy stupid
    In focus group meetings, the sleepy hobbits of NZ by a staggering amount all believe that National are better economic stewards of the country than Labour, that’s why, instead of answering questions about blackmailing MPs, trawling brothels for dirt on...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Personal Statement by Matthew Hooton
    Personal Statement by Matthew Hooton 1 September 2014 For Immediate Release “This morning I made comments on Radio New Zealand’s Nine to Noon programme about an attempt by staff in the Prime Minister’s Office to interfere in the appointment...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • The Worm turns down for John Key
    John Key struggled to coax The Worm above the line in Thursday’s Leaders Debate, according to Roy Morgan’s Reactor, the original Worm. John Key struggled to coax The Worm above the line in Thursday’s Leaders Debate, according to Roy Morgan’s...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • The Edge Posts Naked Photos Without Consent
    The Edge website, owned by Media Works have published fully naked photographs of Jennifer Lawrence without her consent....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Statement from the Governor-General on Ashburton Shootings
    The Governor-General, Lt Gen The Rt Hon Sir Jerry Mateparae, has expressed his deep shock following the shooting of three people in Ashburton today....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Update on IGIS inquiry into release of NZSIS information
    In recognition of the public interest, the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, Cheryl Gwyn, took the unusual step of providing an update during the course of an inquiry and confirmed today that she would be summoning a number of individuals...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • An Open Government Plan developed in secrecy
    The State Services Commission sent NZ’s Open Government Action Plan to the international Open Government Partnership (OGP) Secretariat on 31 July. The countries involved in the OGP since its inception - from the UK and US to Indonesia and Brazil...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • KiwiRail; another year older and deeper in debt
    That is a lot of money and there are lessons that need to be learnt before we pour in another $1 billion....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Fonterra China Deal Demands Safe Supply Chain
    The future success of Fonterra’s deal to sell infant formula in China [1] requires all milk it uses be safe and for Fonterra to secure its supply chain from contamination by GE DNA and pesticide residues. There is now significant...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • HRC praises Auckland mum for speaking out
    Race Relations Commissioner Dame Susan Devoy has praised an Auckland mother of four who went public after humiliating treatment by staff at The Warehouse....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Southern DHB refers disputed issue to Serious Fraud Office
    Following advice from forensic investigation firm Beattie Varley Limited, Southern District Health Board has referred the expenditure at the centre of its long running dispute with South Link Health to the Serious Fraud Office. The parties have been...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • The Letter 1 September 2014
    Last night’s TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll puts the left and right 60 MPs each. United and the Maori Party say they will go with the side that gets to 61 MPs. ACT just needs just 1.3% or 28 thousand Party...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Shopping Giveaway Harmless Fun For Kids
    Family First NZ is rubbishing claims by critics including Gareth Morgan that the New World ‘Little Shop’ promotion is harmful for kids, and says that kids should be allowed to be kids. “Children love acting like their parents and pretending...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Red Cross launches employment service for former refugees
    New Zealand Red Cross is encouraging employers to give refugees a fresh startwith the launch of Pathways to Employment, a nationwide work assistance service....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • EDS welcomes Labour’s Conservation Policy
    The Environmental Defence Society has welcomed Labour’s Conservation Policy including the key objective of halting the current pattern of indigenous biodiversity decline within ten years....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Poverty is falling and income inequality is not rising
    “A Roy Morgan poll shows that the issue people are most concerned about is income inequality. This just goes to show how the persistent repetition of a lie bewilders the public. Income inequality is not in fact rising. And the...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Rotary NZ responding to Fiji water and sanitation issues
    Clean water and sanitation are vital to health. In Fiji Rotary New Zealand have been targeting 22 communities that are experiencing severe hardship mainly because they don’t have access to clean water for their drinking, cleaning and cooking needs....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Work & Income shooting a Tragedy
    Kay Brereton speaking on behalf of the National Beneficiary Advocacy Consultancy group says; “Two people shot and another wounded, this is a tragedy and our deepest sympathy goes out to the family and whanau of the victims, as well as...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • 1080 Poison Deer Repellent not Effective – Farmers
    Four deer have been found dead within a farmer's bush block, after an aerial 1080 poison drop applied with deer repellent. The drop was part of a 30,000 hectare drop across the Northern Pureora Forest Park....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Employment Charter will strengthen migrants’ rights
    Establishing an Employment Charter for construction companies is a critical step to strengthening the rights of migrant workers that are fast becoming the face of the Christchurch rebuild, according to an alliance of union groups. The charter has...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Global March For Elephants and Rhino
    It’s a trans-national business that funds terrorist organisations, fuels conflict in Africa, and poses environmental, development and security challenges. The illegal wildlife trade is also a lucrative business, generating an estimated USD$20 billion...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • New series of videos aimed at disengaged youth
    From the people who brought you 'NZ Idle' (NZ's favourite web series about an artist on the dole) comes a new series about election time: Choice Lolz....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Picket Of Leaders Christchurch Debate
    KEEP OUR ASSETS PICKET OF LEADERS CHRISTCHURCH DEBATE TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 2nd, 6 p.m. ST MARGARETS COLLEGE, SHREWSBURY STREET, MERIVALE...
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Vega Auriga should be detained in NZ until problems fixed
    Maritime Union of New Zealand National Secretary Joe Fleetwood says that the ship Vega Auriga should be detained in a New Zealand port until it is deemed seaworthy and crew issues have been fixed....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Minor Parties Added to Election ‘Bribe-O-Meter’
    The Taxpayers’ Union have added the Green, ACT, United Future and Conservative Parties to the ‘ Bribe-O-Meter ’ hosted at taxpayers.org.nz . Excluding ACT and New Zealand First, the total election ‘bribes’ - that is new spending not already...
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • Fiery Broadcasting Debate in Auckland
    Over 250 people turned out for the Auckland Broadcasting and Media Debate in Auckland City last night to hear politicians give their solutions to NZ’s media and broadcasting woes....
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • Independent Epsom Candidate: Adam Holland
    Today I am very proud to have been nominated to run as an independent candidate by the people of Epsom in order to work hard for the people of Epsom, Mount Eden, Newmarket and Remuera....
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • Voters favour parties with factory farming policies
    A Horizon Research poll shows that 64.7% of adults are more likely to vote for a political party with a policy against factory farming....
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • Collins And Dirty Politics Drive The #nzpol Wordcloud
    After Judith Collins' resignation as Minister from Cabinet on Saturday, the data insight organisation Qrious collected all tweets that used the hashtag #nzpol and for approximately the 24 hours since the announcement to produced this wordcloud....
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • Bill English: allegations against Judith Collins are serious
    Deputy Prime Minister Bill English told TV1’s Q+A programme that the allegations against Judith Collins are serious and that’s why an inquiry is needed....
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • Culture Change Required
    "There are serious issues raised in an Employment Relations Authority judgement released this week. The culture within the Whangarei District Council (WDC) organisation must change. The culture of any organisation is defined by its leadership starting...
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • Reducing Reoffending Statistic Challenged
    In Rethinking’s latest blog, http://blog.rethinking.org.nz/2014/08/th-bps-reducing-crime-and-reoffending.html it closely examines the current claim that reoffending in New Zealand has reduced by 12.5% since June 2011, and reveals how that figure has been achieved. It argues...
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • University economics team studying workers’ comparing wages
    A University of Canterbury economics research team is looking at fairness of the job assignments and whether workers are sensitive to the wages of their co-workers....
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • Statement by State Services Commissioner
    30 August 2014 "The State Services Commission was contacted by the Prime Minister's Office over the last 24 hours on this issue." “Any activity that undermines, or has the potential to undermine, the trust and confidence in the public service...
    Scoop politics | 31-08
  • Christchurch Council Circus … Continued
    In 2010 the UK Daily Mail investigated the antics of a major bureaucratically bloated London Local Authority and reported with THE GREAT INERTIA SECTOR ....
    Scoop politics | 30-08
  • The Nation Housing Debate
    Patrick It's the great Kiwi dream, but is owning the roof over your head now just a pipe dream for many Kiwis? Homeownership is at the lowest level in half a century. National's answer is to double subsidies to first-home...
    Scoop politics | 30-08
  • Time to Shine Light on Shadowy Spies
    Internet MANA has promised to set up a Royal Commission of Inquiry into New Zealand’s intelligence agencies, with a view to transferring oversight of spying operations to a new, independent authority....
    Scoop politics | 30-08
  • New Zealand’s biggest problems are Economic Issues
    New Zealand’s biggest problems are Economic Issues (41%) while the World’s most important problems are War & Terrorism (35%) just three weeks before NZ Election...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • NZ 2014 Leaders Index – week ending 29 August
    Below is iSentia’s first weekly Leaders’ Index, showing the relative amount of coverage of nine Party Leaders in the lead up to the National Election across news media and social media. We will produce these reports for the next three...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Judgment in Paki v Attorney General
    Tamaiti Cairns said that today’s Supreme Court decision is complicated, but, in essence opens the door for Maori people to go forward with their essential claims to water. Further work is required and Pouakani Trust will continue to pursue its...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Supreme Court Decision on Maori Water Rights
    “ … the Supreme Court refused to give Pouakani people what they asked for, but may have given them something much, much better instead. The Appellants had argued that the Crown’s ownership of the River was as a fiduciary for...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Leaders Dinner with Campbell Live, Dessert with RadioLIVE
    John Campbell is hosting Colin Craig, Winston Peters, Laila Harre, Metiria Turei, Peter Dunne, Jamie Whyte and Te Ururoa Flavell LIVE from Auckland’s Grand Harbour Restaurant on Wednesday 3 September at 7pm....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Credit unions in the political spotlight
    Dirty politics was put aside last night as senior politicians outlined their universal support for growing the cooperatively owned credit union and mutual building society sector in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Maryan Street on issues of importance to older people
    Liam Butler interviews Hon Maryan Street MP on issues of importance to older New Zealanders...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • John Hanita Paki and others v The Attorney-General
    JOHN HANITA PAKI, TORIWAI ROTARANGI, TAUHOPA TE WANO HEPI, MATIU MAMAE PITIROI AND GEORGE MONGAMONGA RAWHITI v THE ATTORNEY-GENERAL OF NEW ZEALAND FOR AND ON BEHALF OF THE CROWN (“THE CROWN”) (SC 7/2010)...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Last Nights Leaders Debate Drives The #nzpol Wordcloud
    Following last nights leaders debate on TV One between John Key and David Cunliffe, the data insight organisation Qrious collected all tweets that used the hashtag #nzpol from approximately the last 24 hours to produce this wordcloud....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Campaign suggests reason behind suicide gender statistics
    An online campaign about meaning and belonging has revealed an interesting connection with the difference in suicide rates between men and women....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Act Policy Vindicated by Sensible Sentencing Data
    ACT Leader Dr Jamie Whyte says the Sensible Sentencing Trust's just released analysis of 3 Strikes legislation "proves ACT was right to promote the policy and that it has made New Zealand a much safer country. The figures show beyond...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • “Robin Hood tax and other clever ways to help our kids”
    It’s time to talk about tax. Not just income tax but other kinds of tax too....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Cannabis Laws Breach Treaty – ALCP
    Cannabis prohibition is neo-colonial oppression resulting in the disproportionate imprisonment of Maori, the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party says....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • 2014 Variation Broadcasting Allocation Decision Released
    The Electoral Commission has released a variation decision on the amount of time and money allocated to political parties for the broadcasting of election programmes for the 2014 General Election....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
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