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Roy Morgan bounces left

Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, polls - Tags: ,

Not the usual Roy Morgan post on a poll, but this summary of recent polls contains previously unpublished data to August 11.

National 44 (down 7)
Labour 34 (up 5)
Greens 14 (up 4)
No significant changes in the other parties

Roy Morgan is an erratic poll, so the previous one (which had National on 51%) was probably an outlier. No one on the Left will be breaking out the champagne yet, but it’s good to see a return to the trend of late for the Left bloc to be clearly ahead of National.

76 comments on “Roy Morgan bounces left”

  1. tracey 1

    I dont get excited Bout polls. Rightly or wrongly I believe they are only as good as therson writing the questions.

  2. Melb 2

    Maybe this poll is the outlier.

    • Akldnut 2.1

      You obviously haven’t had a look at the summary or you wouldn’t have made a stupid comment like that, or maybe you did and would have still said it anyways.

    • lprent 2.2

      All local political polls are highly erratic. Small sample sizes, suspect population sampling, etc. The Roy Morgan happens frequently enough (about every two weeks), so you can see it. You can see the underlying trends as well.

      Read the numbers.

  3. amirite 3

    The teflon is starting to wear out, it seems.

  4. hush minx 4

    Two thoughts occur to me – labor is back to where it was in 2008. Good but not good enough. Low 40s is where we need to be, so let this just be a step on the journey. Two, is labour really ready to deal with the greens at almost half their vote? Look how they treated Catherine Delahunty’s bill and you’d say probably not.

    • Jackal 4.1

      Firstly, the fact that Labour is back to 34% while the Green’s have increased by 7.3% to 14% means your comment is largely irrelevant hush minx. On the current numbers Labour would form the next Government with the Greens. Secondly, Catherine Delahunty has had four bills so which one are you talking about exactly? Clearly the Greens and Labour can work constructively together. Labour does not need to “deal with the greens” at all.

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        1/3 Greens Cabinet is going to be a very interesting phenomenon.

      • George D 4.1.2

        What Hush Minx is referring to was a bill that would have withdrawn the ability of the creators of otherwise illegal water pollution to claim exceptional circumstances in perpetuity. Instead, they would have had five years to phase out their pollution. It’s aimed squarely at the Kawerau mill and particular mine sites, but had the support of unions and iwi. It’s hardly unreasonable.

        http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/217021/greens-take-whack-at-labour-over-environment

        We can only speculate as to what the motives of Shearer and his Tight Five were.

        • Jackal 4.1.2.1

          Clearly the Labour members on the committee saying that the black drain bill proposed a too “short a consent time for useful investment” doesn’t preclude them from working with the Greens in government, which seems to be what Hush Minx was arguing.

          Keep in mind that the select committee had a National majority anyway. It’s membership included: Nicky Wagner (Chairperson), Maggie Barry, Jacqui Dean, Paul Goldsmith, Claudette Hauiti, Phil Heatley, Gareth Hughes (replaced by Catherine Delahunty), Raymond Huo, Moana Mackey, Eugenie Sage, Maryan Street and Andrew Williams.

          Granted, Labour not supporting Catherine Delahunty’s bill through the committee stage was stupid, but the issue here is that the bill would essentially mean a huge investment that the owners are unlikely to make or the closure of the Kawarau mill. Labour’s committee members have unfortunately chosen jobs over people’s health and the environment.

          However the committee doesn’t include David Shearer or his so-called tight five does it?

          • bad12 4.1.2.1.1

            Yes Kawarau and Kinlieth, the latter pouring 1000’s of liters of black water daily into the Waikato River which Aucklander’s later go on to drink are two of the larger thorn’s which will have to be addressed at some point in the future,

            The equation being Jobs V enviromental destruction, the question then being what is the commercial viability of both Kawarau and Kinlieth into the future,

            National having set the precedent with it’s 30 million bailout of the Tiwai Point Smelter dare i suggest that the next Labour/Green/Mana Government need look to putting up the monies necessary to ‘fully treat’ the waste water from both these ‘mills’ befor it is allowed to be discharged into our waterways,

            What’s the real cost of doing this, 100-200 million, small change when considered against the wasted resources being poured into roads of No Significance by the present Government. we cannot claim ‘clean green’ status unless we are willing to make it so…

            • grumpy 4.1.2.1.1.1

              A future Labour Greens government would be very interesting and throw up a lot of deals being done by Labour with National, just to keep the country going.

              The question will be – how would the Greens react to that?

              • Draco T Bastard

                throw up a lot of deals being done by Labour with National

                I hope so, it would be the fastest way possible for Labour to become a minor party.

                just to keep the country going.

                Except that it won’t. All it would do would be to enrich the already rich and make a lot of people even poorer – just as the neo-liberal paradigm has done over the last few decades.

            • Jackal 4.1.2.1.1.2

              Attn mods, you might want to move this discussion into open mike?

              bad12

              …dare i suggest that the next Labour/Green/Mana Government need look to putting up the monies necessary to ‘fully treat’ the waste water from both these ‘mills’ befor it is allowed to be discharged into our waterways,

              What’s the real cost of doing this, 100-200 million,

              Unfortunately there are no quick fixes here, being that the dangerous chemicals in the bleaching process are all difficult to remove from the vast amounts of water pulp and paper mills use. In fact there is no way to ‘fully treat’ such waste that I’m aware of and the mutagenic and genotoxic compounds in such discharge aren’t going away anytime soon.

              Kinleith Mill has a consent allowing for wastewater of up to 165000 m3 per day, of which it was originally expected that up to 155000m3/d may be discharged to the Kopakorahi Stream and 10000 m3/d to the Waituna Stream. NZ is currently receiving around 10c for every tonne of waste Kinleith produces. However the cost to clean up a tonne of toxic waste would easily exceed this minuscule reimbursement.

              With an estimated total of 10,060,000 tonnes of effluent discharge from pulp and paper mills into NZ waterways each year, I think your estimate of $100 to 200 million all up is on the very low side. I would suggest that $100 to $200 million would be the per anum cost and that’s before we even look at cleaning up any historic contamination. Unfortunately that cost would make many if not all of these outdated operations financially unviable.

              we cannot claim ‘clean green’ status unless we are willing to make it so…

              I totally agree, which is why we should stop such obviously false advertising.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    Dollars to donuts National’s incessant polling picked up the same trend as this poll. It would explain Key’s sudden decision to appear on Campbell live and to try and take personal control of the agenda of the GCSB debate.

  6. Sable 6

    I don’t trust polls that use small samples but I do hope based on the Campbell Live spy law poll that people are smart enough to see through National and give them bums rush this election.

  7. Colonial Viper 7

    As I said to McFlock when the 29% poll came out – this is just further proof that Labour is bouncing around a ~32%-33% true support level. You can expect some poll results dotted around there, some around 30% and some around 35%.

    What would really help with judging the Roy Morgan – knowing the % of undecideds. It is annoying that they don’t reveal that and it is a crucial figure.

    The prospect of a Government with 1/3 Green Ministers looks good eh?

    Looks like a lot of ABCs won’t even get a look into Cabinet because the seats will be taken by the Greens.

    • bad12 7.1

      i tend to agree with you on the size of the Labour core vote, we have to remember that as the Party’s to the right and beside National in the center have polled less to the point of non-existence on a regular basis it will be more likely National with the poster boy of the moment as Prime Minister who are judged to have ‘picked up’ most of that vote,

      Duck,dive and dodge has not worked for National over the GCSB and we can well imagine some serious head scratching going on amidst the denizens of the Beehives 9th floor as what seemed to them as a simple rejigging of Legislation to make the illegal legal as far as spying on it’s citizens goes has turned into the cluster-f**k of monumental proportions,

      It’s not as if that making of the illegal legal with a quick piece of Legislative or Regulatory change is anything new to this lot who’s silver spoons barely quiver when They are caught out reaching beyond the Law with their actions and intentions,

      If the GCSB legislation, as i believe it will, is to be the defining moment, the high tide mark for this particular abysmal government then we will see a far more critical mass media,(excepting the Herald and other fixated Jonolists), leading up to November 2014 only too willing to throw up the spying Legislation and uproar emanating over snapper quota as reasons to not vote for the incumbent shower only to willing to rain on the shrinking parade of freedom,

      i would suggest that the slippery slope of inevitable electoral defeat began for this government months ago and the dead cat has been given a number of bounces via the ‘rights’ willingness to manipulate certain ‘public images’ in an attempt to manipulate the wavering,

      The more ‘supportive’ polls of this government in the future will be a good read from here to the election as i believe that any slide in support in such ‘supportive organs’ will inevitably be magnified by the electorates actions on voting day…

    • Rogue Trooper 7.2

      if,…….there is a God soldier, if.

      • bad12 7.2.1

        LOLZ, i waver on that question, weekly i waver, but down at my basest level of human form i once took ‘a trip’ and truly saw…

    • McFlock 7.3

      And I think that assuming a constant level of support that is independent of political events means that any political activity is a waste of time.

      Alternatively, a sustained and somewhat desperate (towards the end) attack by garner and gower did cause a dip in the polls for Labour, although it failed to achieve its objective (a challenge against Shearer as a distraction from National’s fuckwittedness and as a nice winter horse race for the pundittierie and commentariat).

      Whether that dip is over is another matter – one poll result does not make a recovery, and the quicker ground is gained then the quicker it can be lost. I would be surprised if a 5 point gain was followed by another gain of any significance.

      • Colonial Viper 7.3.1

        My assumption of a true level of support around 32%-33% doesn’t say that the number won’t move around depending on what is happening in any given month. It just says that it will tend back to that level of support over time.

        Can that “true level of support” be shifted over the long term? Certainly, not denying that at all.

        • McFlock 7.3.1.1

          lol
          so the “true level of support” can shift both monthly and in the longer term.

          Sounds to me like estimating a “true level of support” based on multiple 2-3weekly poll results is just so much marsh gas.

  8. Disraeli Gladstone 8

    Using the Nate Silver / Anthony Wells approach to polling, I’m suggesting we’re probably seeing National at 45-46%, Labour 32-33% and Greens at 12-13%.

    So really, it’s all to play for, people. National and Labour+Green are in a dead heat.

    … we’re going to end up with Winston as Kingmaker again, aren’t we?

    • bad12 8.1

      Not necessarily Winston and NZFirst as the ‘kingmaker’ in the next Parliament, what may be the making or breaking of the next Labour lead Government could well be the Mana Party and Hone Harawira,

      Electoral support for the Maori party has all but collapsed and a 1/3 to a 1/2 of the Maori Party’s previous support crossing over with their votes to the Mana Party would see Mana with another MP in the 2015 Parliament off of it’s list entitlement,

      Mana’s Annette Sykes, should She stand again in the Waiariki electorate needs 1940 of the votes from the incumbent Maori Party MP who’s support base has all but evaporated to gain Mana a 3rd MP in the next Parliament,

      It’s interesting to see Labour Leader David Shearer expounding Neanderthalic first past the post politics with His speech after the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election that Labour will be going ‘hard out’ to win back all the Maori electorates at the 2014 election,

      The point being that Labour would do far better to in effect ‘concede’ the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electorates to Mana as doing so would ensure the ‘Left’ 2 more seats in the next Parliament while Labour ‘winning’ both those electorate seats would see that Party making no numerical gains in MP numbers and ‘the Left’ as a Parliamentary Bloc with 2 less seats,

      It would take real ‘Leadership’ from within Labour to ‘see’ this and i doubt that the Party mired in the past of neanderthalic first past the post politics has that leadership capable of first ‘seeing’ the situation for what it is under MMP and second be willing to take the necessary steps to build that coalition of Party’s necessary to give ‘the left’ that out-right victory in 2014 that this country so desperately needs…

      • Watching 8.1.1

        Bad12, could you explain the logic behind your numbers.

        You are saying that Mana will take a percentage of the MP 1.5% to give them enough votes for two seats – this will be filled by 1 electorate & 1 list seat. Then you also say that Annette Sykes wins a second electorate seat & doesn’t this mean she takes up Mana’s second seat so that they now have 2 electorate & 0 list seat under their entitlement .

        If the above happens then doesn’t Mana now need to increase its list vote double what you suggest to get a List seat.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1

          bad12 has made similarly incorrect mathematical claims in the past. I think he doesn’t understand how it works.

          • bad12 8.1.1.1.1

            L, Feel free to list these incorrect mathematical claims that i have made in the past…or…

            • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1.1.1

              http://thestandard.org.nz/winston-peters-king-maker/#comment-667901
              and again in
              http://thestandard.org.nz/winston-peters-king-maker/#comment-668106

              In those comment you suggest Mana will have 3 seats in parliament, from them winning Sykes’ seat and from gaining 0.2% of the party vote to 1.2% to gain another list seat. But as we explain, 1.2% party vote + 2 electorate seats = 2 seats, not 3.

            • Akldnut 8.1.1.1.1.2

              Ba12 “It’s interesting to see Labour Leader David Shearer expounding Neanderthalic first past the post politics with his speech after the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election that Labour will be going ‘hard out’ to win back all the Maori electorates at the 2014 election”

              Strange that you perceive this as Neanderthalic politics when Mana did exactly the same in Waitakere last election and the greens did this in all other seats notably Central Christchurch in 2008 elections.

              Pot…Kettle……

              Perhaps Mana should run a programe in Waiariki to re-educate voters on how to fill in their ballots and chase the 1000 odd that voted incorrectly. And with the decline in MP base support Mana would romp in or barring that Sykes could step aside and leave it for Labour.

              Swings both ways.

        • bad12 8.1.1.2

          Yep, happy to say i have the electorate V party list MP’s equation wrong in that comment, Mana would have to win something like 3% of the Party vote plus win both Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau to gain 3 seats in the next Parliament,

          A hard ask but not impossible…

          • alwyn 8.1.1.2.1

            Sorry but that is still wrong.
            If they got 3% of the party vote they would get, almost certainly, 4 seats in Parliament, provided that they won a single electorate seat. They do not have to win two electorate seats as winning one qualifies them to have additional list seats even though they don’t get to the 5% threshold..
            In 2008 ACT got a total of 5 seats (1 electorate and 4 list) by getting 3.65% of the vote. That is the closest I found to 3% to illustrate the point. The exact cutoff for list seats depends on the exact number of wasted votes.

            • bad12 8.1.1.2.1.1

              alwyn, aaaah mathematical pain, i will definitely take your word for it, will try and hunt out the MMP calculator later, i think there is one on the Electoral Commissions website,

              But in the meantime, just for arguments sake,

              What % of the Party vote would the Mana Party need for 1 list MP if that Party won both the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electorate seats in 2014???,

              Taking into account what TRP is saying that 1.3% of the Party vote would simply be cancelled out by the winning of the 2nd electorate seat???…

              • alwyn

                On the 2011 results the last seat went to National with a quotient of 9048 votes.
                Assuming the same pattern in the next election the Mana party would have to get just over 5 times that figure, or about 46,000 votes. That would be about 2.1% of the votes cast.
                That would give them 1 electorate seat and 2 list seats or 2 electorate seats and 1 list seat.
                No electorate seats? No list seats as they would be below the 5% threshold.
                There is an explanation of the Saint Lague formula and how it works at
                http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011 in the Statistics section.
                Bloody awful thing to follow.

                • bad12

                  LOLZ, thanks for that, while you have been there i have been having my little neuron sack seriously twisted over at the Electoral Commissions calculator, which sounds about as easy to try and calculate a forward look at ‘might be’ results as where you have looked,

                  The most i could figure from that little piece of education was that on 2011 results Mana need another 6000 votes to be sure of a list seat along with Hone Harawira retaining Te Tai Tokerau…

                  • alwyn

                    I have tried it to. I thought your number was a bit high as my calculation says that a bit over 3 * 9048 should be enough.
                    I put in a Mana vote of 27,500 (about 3,300 more than they got) and that gives them a total of 2 seats. As one expects (see my comment about National getting the last seat above) National drops to 58.
                    That calculator is horrible, isn’t it. It took me 3 goes to get it right. The first time I had National vote at only one tenth, the second time I missed out the Maori party winning any electoral seats and the THIRD time I managed to get the numbers in properly.
                    It says you can change the numbers by using the back button but it doesn’t work. It just gives you a new blank sheet.

                  • alwyn

                    A final, very last word on this, just in case you see it.
                    I have done the numbers exactly and proved them on that calculator.
                    Assuming that every party except Mana gor the actual number of votes that they did in 2011 the critical number of votes for Mana to get a second seat would be worked out as follows.
                    The last persom to get in was the 59th National MP with a quotient of 1058636/117
                    Mana, to get a second seat, would have to get more than 3 times this number, which works out as 27,144.512
                    Thus at 27144 votes they get one 1 seat and National get 59.
                    At 27145 votes they get 2 seats and National drop to 58.
                    If you are really keen you can put the numbers into that calculator and check this.
                    Alternatively, if you have any sense you can take my word for it.
                    Since Mana actually got 24,168 votes they were 2977 votes short.

      • Te Reo Putake 8.1.2

        Bad, I don’t think wanting to win all the Maori seats is a reflection of FPP thinking. Electorate seats are just as important under MMP and I still get annoyed at the naivety of the left voters who wasted their electorate vote on a minor party, enabling the likes of Bennett and Kaye to win the seats. If you don’t think having a tory as your local MP is a problem, you are clearly not a beneficiary or part of the working poor needing assistance from the local electorate office.

        And I don’t see how your maths works; the left have the same number of seats whoever wins them. The only improvement on that is if Mana only win one seat and gain a second, overhang, seat by getting a party vote above 1.3% ( I think that’s the threshold?). If Sykes wins a second seat for Mana, that covers the overhang, so they still only have 2 MPs and the left total is unchanged.

        Having said that, I do stand to be corrected if I’ve misunderstood the overhang effect. It’s not an issue for the party I support, so I haven’t given it much thought.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1

          An overhang is when a party wins more electorate seats than it’s party vote would enable them too, eg Maori Party has an overhang because they won 3 electorate seats, but their share of the party vote should only entitle them to 2.

          A party that wins 1 electorate and then has enough party vote for 1 additional list seat does not create an overhang.

          A party that wins 1 electorate but not enough party vote to support 1 seat (eg, United Future in 2014, although in 2011 I think they got enough party vote for 1 seat) would create an overhang.

          A party that wins enough party vote for 10 list seats, but only has 9 or fewer list candidates on their list, would create an underhang. For example the Bill & Ben party had only 2 list candidates, so had they won 3 seats worth (including 1 electorate to avoid the 5% threshold), they would have had an underhang by 1.

        • bad12 8.1.2.2

          OK put aside the list MP for the moment, i see what you are saying regarding having 2 electorate MP’s V the % of party vote gained and you might be right with your point there,

          However, i believe you are wrong when you consider the 2 seats Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau against Labours % of the Party vote,

          Lets use the current Roy Morgan as our point of reference, should Labour gain 34% of the Party vote plus win the 2 electorates, Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau, Labour will first have to count the electorate seats won and then add to it’s MP’s the number which takes its MP’s to 34% of the House,

          Should Mana win both those electorates, Te Tai Tonga and Waiariki, Labour will still end up with the same number of MP’s in the House as it would have if it,Labour, had won those 2 electorates, 34%,

          As Mana already hold Te Tai Tokerau this scenario would give the ‘left’ an extra seat in the House, that of Waiariki which neither Labour or Mana currently hold,

          This scenario is Labour win Waiariki +34% of party vote= 34% of seats, if Mana win= 2 seats+Labour with 34% of seats= i extra seat in left bloc…

          • Lanthanide 8.1.2.2.1

            You overcomplicate it.

            It’s as simple as: electorate seat won by Maori Party, who are “right leaning”, vs electorate seat won by Mana, who are on the left.

            Labour has nothing to do with it.

            • bad12 8.1.2.2.1.1

              Nope you over-simplify, the Maori Party and in particular Tariana Turia are center left leaning with the codicil that Turia despises the Labour Party which is the sole reason for that Party’s coalition with the present National Government,

              The fact that you are blind to the actual numbers is possibly a matter for you to take up with your optician or other professional,

              Labour should they win both the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electoral seats and then find themselves with no gains in actual seat numbers in the House will have had everything to do with ‘it’,

              MMP is a matter of building coalitions, Labour as the perceived biggest player in any left bloc coalition should be focused on the building process not just as a matter of convenience after an election but constructively doing so during the electoral cycle between elections,

              If MMP has shown us one thing it is that smaller coalition partners are always first to be punished by the electorate for the perceived sins of supporting the major bloc of that coalition,

              Labour then need to be always looking for ways in which support for likely coalition partners can be bolstered…

        • bad12 8.1.2.3

          TRP, No No No, ”electoral seats are just as important under MMP”, No No No that is simply a hangover of thinking from FFP elections,

          The only time electoral seats are more important, in terms of forming a Government, than the % of Party vote is in the unlikely situation where Labour could win more electorate seats than it’s proportion of the Party Vote would have given them,

          S**t i lived in Bill from Dipton’s electorate for a couple of years and s did that while a beneficiary and it made no difference to me,

          If Labour are so concerned about the plight of the electorates where there is a Tory incumbent they only need a higly visible Labour Party office in that electorate with a direct line to a ‘buddy MP’s office’ at the Parliament, which could handle issues which only an MP could be said to be able to sort out,

          ”The left have the same number of seats no matter who wins them, No No No, more FFP thinking, consider this, Labour have a cup of tea with Hone and Annette Sykes in the the Waiariki electorate, Sykes wins, Labour would then have their 34% of MP’s plus 2 Mana Party MPs in the House,

          Should however Labour win the Waiariki electorate they will have exactly the same 34% of MP’s in the House but only 1 Mana Party vote in support in the House…

          • Te Reo Putake 8.1.2.3.1

            Yes yes yes, Bad. I gave the reason why electorate seats are important, but I guess you are “clearly not a beneficiary or part of the working poor needing assistance from the local electorate office.”

            And as for te mana, unless Hone holds the balance of power, they’re irrelevent. Hone’s hardly likely to vote down left legislation, is he? So his vote is effectively on board already.

            • bad12 8.1.2.3.1.1

              Yes TRP keep up with such arrogance and Labour will find itself right where it is now in terms of Governance,

              So you think that Labour will just throw Mana a bone as National does to the Maori Party and Mana will roll over for a tummy tickle do you,

              You and Labour are in for a big surprise…

              PS, and as far as Labour caring for the plight of beneficiaries, fucking save the crocodile tears, Labour from Douglas’s taxation of beneficiaries to the abysmal Clark’s decision to exclude beneficiaries from Working for Families to the Shearer beneficiary bashing speech have shown all beneficiaries that Labour couldn’t give a big fat one about them,

              That’s a pattern of beneficiary bashing as bad if not worse than the equally shitty record of National…

              • Te Reo Putake

                Yeah, and your attitude enables Paula Bennett and her Tory ilk. I’ll keep my ‘arrogance’ over your ignorance any day, Bad. Like it or not, life is better for beneficiaries under a left government generally and your electorate voting to assist the election of tory MP’s does not help them a jot.

                Hone knows this wider truth, which is why he will, if re-elected, support most of what the next Government does, even if he is not part of that Government.

                • bad12

                  LOLZ, TRP, you have convinced me of one thing at least, that being that my Party vote will be going to Mana in 2014 and my electorate vote to Russell Norman, thanks,

                  That’s an amazing little quibble you have put up there, ”life for a beneficiary is better under Labour than National”,

                  What a grand reason to vote for Labour, ”vote Labour a Party that doesn’t put the boot into beneficiaries as hard as what National does”,

                  The rest of your little rant is pretty much low brow stuff, do your knuckles scrape when you perambulate,

                  Everything i have said in this post has been to do with the Maori electorates none of which are likely to ever vote for the nonexistent National candidates, and the fact that you cannot bring yourself to concede that i am correct when i state that in 2014 should Labour win the Waiariki electorate ‘the left’ in the next Parliament will be down 1 vote is laughable but sad,

                  Now that’s what i call enabling a National Government…

        • QoT 8.1.2.4

          the naivety of the left voters

          Because they must be stupid, it’s not like they might be rejecting the anointed Labour candidate for good reasons of their own.

    • burt 8.2

      I don’t think Winston can be called the king maker. Any leader who relies on Winston to achieve power at any price could hardly be called a King !

      Perhaps we could call him the “sell out maker” – You can’t call somebody a leader when they require the support of such corrupt self serving people to “lead”. They are a sell out – not a leader.

      • bad12 8.2.1

        That’s about as pathetic a comment i would expect from the shrinking wing-nut brigade of commenters here at the Standard,

        Are you talking about the Winston who was pilloried in the Parliament and the media for having ‘taken’ a free fish dinner from the Veller brothers,

        Forgotten in the smooch fest tongue’n’groove tango surrounding the current Slippery little Shyster we have as Prime Minister is the small fact that immediately after His election He was more than happy to take a ‘free ride’ in a Veller brother’s helicopter from Hamilton to Auckland so anything you accuse Peters of has simply been magnified by the current incumbent in a ‘winner takes all’ thumbing of the nose at the electorate…

        • burt 8.2.1.1

          OK, so Winston isn’t (in your opinion) as bad as Key… Well it’s just awesome that being accountable under the law is in your world treated like a kid caught stealing biscuits – You can shout and point at someone else and say they did it too….

          God forbid we judge Peters according to the ethics and the standards we expect from MPs – wow just let him do what he wants because you think somebody else is worse….

          Grow up – most kids learn by the time they get to high school that pointing and shouting “they did it too” isn’t going to get them out of trouble – baby brain partisan hacks don’t seem to learn this lesson when they are in their self serving justification mode for their own team.

          • bad12 8.2.1.1.1

            Your latest little snivel of a comment is simply more of the wing-nut habit of putting words into a commenters mouth that they have neither uttered nor intended by the contents of a previous comment,

            Utter Bullshit in other words, if Winston Peters actions in accepting a free meal from the Veller brothers was as you wing-nuts put it corruption then your golden boy Slippery the Prime Minister has displayed as much if not more corruption and hypocrisy by at a later date accepting from the Veller brothers a free helicopter ride,

            Apply the same words in your last paragraph above to your own attitude…

  9. Aotearoean 9

    Rumour has it that Winnie the Poo has bought a new set of clothes!!1

  10. Core_Labour_Voter (Tory troll) 10

    Why do you guys think this poll is not accurate enough? I think the GCSB and Snapper quota issue has taken its toll and people are coming back in droves to Labour and Greens. We should all be publishing these poll results all over the place.

    • karol 10.1

      It does match John Campbell’s claim that Nat’s polling showed Key was taking a hit over the GCSB Bill and hence Key turning up on Campbell Live.

      • Akldnut 10.1.1

        Yeah I would feel a lot better if TV3 kept the issue alive (get inside voters heads) by plastering it over their news bulletins for the next week or so.

  11. Sanctuary 11

    Question – when was the last poll that showed Labour and the Greens both up at National’s expense?

    • karol 11.1

      July-Aug 2012

    • Bunji 11.2

      Both up? usually one or ‘tother.
      But for Roy Morgan: early April 2013, early March 2013…

      But this is a biggie. Mssive swing – probably a big outlier to the right to a small outlier to the left… that’s why it’s important to have lots of polls (that only Roy Morgan does), so you can see the trend.
      Interesting no press release from Roy Morgan – guess they’re a bit obsessed over Oz election at the mo.
      And obviously no breathless comment from our media. No Press Release = they didn’t hear about it…

      • karol 11.2.1

        March-April 2013 was a very slight rise by both Labour and Greens – Labour up 1.0; Greens up 0.5.

  12. Te Reo Putake 12

    New Roy Morgan’s out and its a doozy! Lab/Green 48, Nats 44.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5113-new-zealand-voting-intention-august-2013-201308200137

    If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win.

    The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 128 (down 0.5%) with 58% (down 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

    Gary Morgan says:

    “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll contains good news for the Opposition Labour (34%, up 5%) and Greens (14%, up 4%) – now at their highest level of combined support in four months since early April 2013. The Greens have jumped to their highest level of support in a year since August 2012.

    “The huge swings in support come as the contentious GCSB (Government Communications Security Bureau) ‘Spying’ Bill is heavily debated in Parliament. The Bill, which will increase the Government’s powers of surveillance over all New Zealand citizens, has faced strong opposition in Parliament. Prime Minister John Key has insisted on the importance of passage of the bill in the fight against terrorism claiming there are people living in New Zealand who had been trained by Al-Qaeda.

    “Opposition to the bill is not just inside Parliament, with the Law Society saying there are ‘fundamental flaws in the GCSB Bill’ that minor adjustments insisted on by Independent MP Peter Dunne for his support do not alter.”

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      New Roy Morgan’s out and its a doozy! Lab/Green 48, Nats 44.

      it’s a solid result, but reinforces a Labour true level of 32% or 33% +/- 3%.

  13. amirite 13

    I now expect the coordinated attack by the MSM on Shearer and his snapper in an attempt to hike up Nats’ ratings.

  14. tracey 14

    You can’t call somebody a leader when they require the support of such corrupt self serving people to “lead”. They are a sell out – not a leader.

    welll said burt… key is being propped up by banks isnt he?

  15. Grantoc 15

    There are polls and there are polls.

    Today’s Fairfax poll contradicts yesterday’s Morgan poll, showing National still in a commanding position and Labour still hovering in that zone just above 30%.

    Interestingly, the Greens in the Fairfax poll come in quite a bit lower too. Perhaps their voter support is quite volatile.

    So what to make of it all? Probably that nothing much has changed actually. National is still pretty dominant. Labour is not getting any traction. The Greens jump around a bit. NZ First may or may not be a player. This seems to be a pretty solid pattern looking back at all the polls over the last 18 mnts or so.

    • lprent 15.1

      So what to make of it all?

      That it is a poll by a different company and using a different methodology? A poll taken every two months or so has little credibility for looking at trends compared to one taken every two weeks.

      I notice you didn’t put in the delta’s from the previous poll by the same company. Nor did you state when this poll and the previous one from the same company were taken. Why is that?

      It is interesting reading what unthinking fools think about polls… Bit tedious though as they all seem to make the same moronic mistakes.

      • Grantoc 15.1.1

        Imprent

        I don’t agree that because a poll is taken only every 2 months compared with a poll taken every two weeks that it lacks credibility with regards to picking up trends. If it was a one off poll, you could argue that, but like other regular pollsters, the Fairfax poll has been around for a long time.

        Besides what actually is important is methodological rigour; especially around question design, statistical analysis etc. I’m not in a position to say whether the Morgan poll is superior in this regard than the Fairfax poll, or the other way around.

        Also important for getting a real handle on the trends is to combine the results from all relevant polls and see what that says about patterns.

        • lprent 15.1.1.1

          Have a *close* look at the variability of the Roy Morgan polls every two weeks. Then consider that every other poll has exactly the same kinds of statistical variability. RM literally bounces around by ~ +/- 4% from a mean for the two main parties.

          So in the last poll there was 7% decrease in National’s support compared to a similar increase in the previous poll. Still roughly within the statistical but on the extremes of it. If you look over a series of 4 for a two month period, then lo and behold – you can actually see the overall trend without the statistical variability screwing it up.

          But a poll that comes out every two months has exactly the same level of variability – but you can’t really see it…

          Remember that what the polling companies are sampling isn’t really the overall voting population. It is a subset that represents the population that they are sampling from that is meant to represent the overall population. Factors like them calling people on phones makes a hell of a different. Incidentally that is why you can’t rely on the actual percentages – because they don’t reflect the population that will actually vote.

          Trends and rough percentages are all that you can rely upon. Methodology on a single question that amounts to “If the election was held today, which party would you vote for” is largely irrelevant (because that is what they are reporting on). But making sure that the population you are sampling in is consistent. The frequency you take the polls in also helps as it is part of the methodology – it helps to even out the inconsistencies in method and to highlight the natural variability.

          If you look at the news organisations polls you can see a remarkable consistency. They look to be designed to have enough change to make a good news story each time…

          Now consider that some dork (yourself for instance) will look at a single point reflecting one of those extremes every two months and start the usual pontification about “what it all means”. If you are really silly you’ll compare the values between two different polling companies for extra meaningless waffle.

          combine the results from all relevant polls

          Yeah right. There are 4 polls that happen about every 2 months. Then there is one poll that happens every 2 weeks.

          What do you think weights the combined poll results the most? The 4 polls from a single companies sampling method or the 4 polls from from 4 separate companies sampling methods.

          Bearing in mind the RM has been consistently closest to the actual results over the last 3 elections, and without having the abrupt changes in angle that the others show at election time as their previously undisclosed undecided population “makes up their mind” – which would you look at?.

          If the other polls weren’t all pulling National upwards and the minor parties downwards mid-term (which is what they do), then a composite would be useful. But you really need a *lot* more polls and competitive polling companies to make it viable. The polls in the US or even aussie tend to be more accurate as composite polls simply because there are polls coming out every few days. Here our population of polls is so low that a single shyster company can drag them anywhere.

          As I said before – people who haven’t thought about polls say the same daft things over and over again without *thinking*

          • Grantoc 15.1.1.1.1

            All very interesting Iprent. But your elaborate defence of the validity of one poll over the rest doesn’t stack up.

            Have you heard of Nate Silver? He is the statistician, who amongst other things precisely predicted the outcome of the last US presidential election – calling each state accurately. He blogs for the New York Times.

            How did he do this? By analysing at all of the polling data from every available poll in each State and drawing conclusions that led to his ability to make accurate predictions.

            Interetsingly he was attacked by the Republicans because, they, like you, wanted desperately to believe that their ‘pet’ polls were more accurate and better than all others.

            Check him out Iprent. he has more credibility as far as I’m concerned on polling and how they work and what they mean than you do.

  16. Lol, lets speak about trends.

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    Labour | 13-10
  • John Key dishonest about reasons for wanting to change terrorism law
    John Key is misleading the public to push through terrorism law changes under urgency, the Green Party said today. On Sunday, John Key stated that it is not illegal for someone to fight overseas for a terrorist group, such as...
    Greens | 12-10
  • Law changes shaping up to be worse than first thought
    The Prime Minister needs to be up front about exactly what changes he is planning to make to the Employment Relations  Amendment Bill, Labour's spokesperson on Labour Issues Andrew Little says.Interviewed on Q&A yesterday John Key said he did not...
    Labour | 12-10
  • Rapists, not Tinder, the threat to women
    Blame for rape and sexual assault should only ever be laid at the door of the perpetrator, not dating services or the actions of women themselves, Labour’s Associate Police spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. “Tinder is not the problem and women...
    Labour | 09-10
  • Safer Journeys For People Who Cycle
    You have a rare opportunity to tell the people who are making the decisions on cycling how to make it better. The Cycling Safety Panel is seeking feedback on their draft recommendations for improving the safety of cycling in New...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Subsidising more pollution will undermine water clean-up plan at Te Waihora...
    In 2010, NIWA found Canterbury’s Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere had the worst nutrient status of 140 lakes around New Zealand that it measured. In 2011, the National Government committed to spending $15 million across the country through the Fresh Start for...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Adding value not herbicides
    The HT swedes, and other brassicas, might seem like a good idea to farmers struggling against weeds but like the GE road, is this the path we want our agriculture to be treading? The Federated Farmers President, Dr William Rolleston...
    Greens | 07-10
  • ‘Blame the Planner’ bizarre approach to child poverty
    The National Government is stooping to a bizarre new low in blaming "planning processes" for poverty and inequality, after spending six years doing nothing about either the housing market or child poverty, the Green Party said today. Finance Minister Bill...
    Greens | 07-10
  • Media Advisory
    MANA Leader, Hone Harawira will not be available to speak with media today regarding his release “Recount Just One Step To restoring Credibility”. He is however available for media comment tomorrow, Tuesday the 8th of October, all media arrangements are...
    Mana | 07-10
  • RECOUNT JUST ONE STEP TO RESTORING CREDIBILITY
    “I have applied for a judicial recount of the votes in the Tai Tokerau election because it is one step in trying to restore credibility to the electoral process in the north, and, I suspect, in all other Maori electorates...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA SEEKS TAI TOKERAU RECOUNT
    The MANA Movement is supporting Leader Hone Harawira’s application for a judicial re-count in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate for the 2014 general election. President Lisa McNab says there are a number of serious issues of concern regarding the ability...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA to fight mass privatisation of state housing
    Announcements over the past 12 hours from the Minister responsible for Housing New Zealand, Bill English, and Minister for Social Housing, Paula Bennett, make clear the government’s intention for the mass privatisation of state housing. This comes during the middle...
    Mana | 07-10
  • Journalists have right to protect sources
    Legal authorities must respect the right of journalist Nicky Hager to protect the source of his material for his Dirty Politics book under Section 68 of the Evidence Act, Acting Labour Leader David Parker says. “It is crucial in an...
    Labour | 06-10
  • It shouldn’t take the Army to house the homeless
    National’s move to speed up its state house sell-off shows it is bankrupt of new ideas, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “National has been in office for six years, yet the housing crisis has got worse every month and...
    Labour | 06-10
  • Government must lift social housing supply, not shuffle the deck chairs
    National's decision to shift the state provision of housing to third parties is a smokescreen for the Government decreasing the provision of affordable housing, the Green Party said today."What National should be doing is increasing the supply of both social...
    Greens | 06-10
  • Election 2014 – the final count
    While we have to wait for the final booth level counts we can now see how well we did in the specials and look at electorate level data. First off special votes (and disallowed/recounted votes etc). There was a change...
    Greens | 06-10
  • We need more houses, not Ministers
    The Government’s decision to have three housing Ministers will create a dog’s breakfast of the portfolio and doesn’t bode well for fixing the country’s housing crisis, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New Zealanders need more houses, not more Ministers....
    Labour | 05-10
  • MANA’S CHALLENGE TO THE 51st PARLIAMENT
    Ten years ago I led 50,000 Maori on the historic FORESHORE AND SEABED MARCH from Te Rerenga Wairua to the very steps of this parliament, in a march against the greatest land grab in the history of this country –...
    Mana | 03-10
  • Is this really necessary?
    No one denies chief executives should be well paid for their skills and experience, but it is the efforts of all employees which contribute to company profits, Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker says. “Salaries paid to chief executives come at...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Lyttelton Port workers also deserve pay rises
    Hard slog by Lyttelton Port workers contributed to strong financial growth for the company and they deserve to be rewarded for their work as much as its chief executive, says Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker. “Lyttelton Port chief executive Peter...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Māori Party must seek guarantees on Māori seats
    Labour is calling on the Māori Party to ensure protection of the Māori seats is part of its coalition deal with National which is being considering this weekend, Labour’s Māori Affairs spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says. “For the third consecutive term,...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Donaghys job losses another blow to Dunedin
    The loss of 30 jobs from Donaghys rope and twine factory is yet another blow to the people and economy of Dunedin, says Dunedin South Labour MP Clare Curran. “Donaghys was founded in 1876; the company has survived two world...
    Labour | 02-10
  • 5AA Australia – NZ on UN Security Council + Dirty Politics Lingers On
    5AA Australia: Selwyn Manning and Peter Godfrey deliver their weekly bulletin Across The Ditch. General round up of over night talkback issues: Thongs, Jandals and flip-flops… ISSUE 1: New Zealand has been successful in its campaign to become a non...
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • When I mean me, I mean my office & when I call whaleoil I mean not as m...
    This. Is. Ludicrous. Green Party co-leader Russel Norman put the first of what are likely to be many questions about Mr Key’s relationship with Slater, asking him how many times he had phoned or texted the blogger since 2008. “None...
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • A brief word on describing the Government as ‘boring and bland’
    The narrative being sown is that this Government will be a boring and bland third term. Boring and bland. Since the election, Key has announced he is privatising 30% of state houses without reinvesting any of that money back into housing society’s most...
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • More Latté Than Lager: Reflections on Grant Robertson’s Campaign Launch.
    BIKERS? SERIOUSLY! Had Grant Robertson’s campaign launch been organised by Phil Goff? Was this a pitch for the votes of what few Waitakere Men remain in the Labour Party? Was I even at the right place? Well, yes, I was....
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • About Curwen Ares Rolinson
    Curwen Ares Rolinson – Curwen Ares Rolinson is a firebrand young nationalist presently engaged in acts of political resistance deep behind enemy lines amidst the leafy boughs of Epsom. He is affiliated with the New Zealand First Party; although his...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • About Kelly Ellis
    Kelly Ellis.Kelly Ellis – As a child, Kelly Ellis didn’t so much fall into the cracks, but willfully wriggled her way into them. Ejected from Onslow College – a big job in the 70s – Kelly worked in car factories,...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • About Kate Davis
    Kate Davis.Kate Davis – Having completed her BA in English and Politics, Kate is now starting her MA. Kate works as a volunteer advocate at Auckland Action Against Poverty and previously worked for the New Zealand Prostitutes Collective. Kate writes...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Parker does a Shearer – oh for a Labour Leader who can challenge msm fals...
    Sigh. It seems David Parker has done a Shearer… Like a cult and too red – Parker on LabourLabour leadership contender David Parker says Labour borders on feeling like “a cult” and must look at its branding – including its...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • A brief word on the hundreds of millions NZ is spending on the secret intel...
    The enormity of the mass surveillance state NZ Government’s have built carries a huge price tag… Kiwis pay $103m ‘membership fee’ for spyingThe $103 million taxpayer funding of New Zealand’s intelligence agencies is effectively a membership fee for joining the...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Where. Is. Jason. Ede?
    Where. Is. Jason. Ede?...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Labour’s Din of Inequity
    Watching Labour’s leadership candidates on Q+A on Sunday, I noticed the ongoing use of terms like “opportunity” and “aspiration”, and “party of the workers”. What do these mean? We glean much from Labour, and from the media about Labour, but not...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • “Blue-Greenwash” fails the test when it comes to endangered dolphins
    National’s pre-election promises saw some wins for the environment – perhaps as the party sought to appease its “Blue-Green” voters and broaden its popular appeal. Some of the ecological gains were a long time in the making, overdue even– such...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Reasons not to be cheerful, Part #272b
    Why don’t you get back into bed? The next few years — the rest of this century — are not going to be pretty. There is an obvious disconnect between any remaining political ambition to fix climate change and the...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • OIA protocols and official advice ignored to hide Child Poverty
    It might not seem so now, but child poverty was a major election issue. What a pity we did not have the full debate. In that debate it would have been very helpful to have seen the Ministry of Social...
    The Daily Blog | 20-10
  • Previewing the 4 candidates for Leader of the Labour Party
    The extraordinary outbursts by Shearer last week highlights just how toxic that Caucus is. Shearer was on every major media platform as the ABC attack dog tearing into Cunliffe in the hope of diminishing Cunliffe’s support of Little by tearing...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – the sudden explosion of ‘left’ blogs
    Time to Teach or more people will suffer from P.A.I.D. Political And Intellectual Dysmorphia.I was on the Twitter and a guy followed me so of course I did the polite thing and followed him back. He wrote a blog so...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Ego vs Eco
    Ego vs Eco...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • We can’t let the Roastbuster case slip away
    Those of us (like me) left with hope that the police would aggressively follow through on the large amount of evidence on offer to them (let’s not forget they forgot they even had some at one point) in the Roastbusters...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Food, shelter and medicine instead of bombs and bullets
    The on-going conflict across the Middle East – due in large part to the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – has created another humanitarian crisis of biblical proportion. The essentials of life are desperately needed in Iraq and Syria...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • The politics of electorate accommodations
    National’s electorate accommodations with ACT and United Future were a big factor in it winning re-election. Interestingly, there is another electorate accommodation scenario whereby the centre-left could have come out on top, even with the same distribution of party votes....
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Why you should join the TPPA Action on 8 November
    On 8 November 2014, thousands of Kiwis will take part in the International Day of Action to protest the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). The rally cry for us is TPPA – Corporate Trap, Kiwis Fight Back. Why should you join...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG – Patrick O’Dea: no new coal mines
    Green Party and Mana Party policy is “NO NEW COAL MINES!” Auckland Coal Action is trying to put this policy into action on the ground. ACA after a hard fought two year campaign waged alongside local residents and Iwi, in...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Comparing Police action – Hager raid vs Roast Buster case
    This satire had the NZ Police contact TDB and threaten us with 6months in prison for using their logo.   The plight of Nicky Hager and the draconian Police actions against him has generated over  $53 000 in donations so...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Malala Yousafzai, White Saviour Complexes and Local Resistance
    Last week, Malala Yousafzai was the co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Since her exposure to the worldwide spotlight, her spirit, wisdom and strength have touched the hearts of people everywhere. However, there have been cynics who have argued that...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Jason Ede is back – but no media can interview him?
    Well, well, well. Jason Ede, the main figure connected to John Key’s office and the Dirty Politics black ops is back with a company with deep ties to the National Party. One thing you can say about the right –...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Leadership Transitions In Other Parties: A ...
    As cannot have escaped anyone’s attention by now, the country is presently in the grips of an election and campaign that will help determine the fate of the nation for years to come. It’s gripping stuff – with clear divides...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • SkyCity worker says she faces losing her house
    SkyCity worker Carolyn Alpine told the company annual shareholder’s meeting today that she faced the prospect of losing her house because the company had cut her shifts from two a week to one without consultation. The solo mother, has worked...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • Greg O’Connor’s latest push to arm cops & 5 reasons not to
    I was wondering at what point within a 3rd term of National that Police Cheerleader Greg O’Connor would start trying to demand cops be armed. O’Connor must have thought to himself, ‘if bloody Key can get us and the GCSB vast new...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • You can’t have crisis without ISIS
    So the new scary bogeyman ISIS might have chemical weapons that the US secretly found in Iraq, but America didn’t want to expose this find because the WMDs were actually built and made by the US and Europe, the two powers...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • NZ WINS UN SPIN THE BOTTLE! Privately sucking up to America for a decade me...
    Oh, we are loved! Little old NZ, the 53rd state of America after Israel and Australia, gets to sit at the adults table for the special dinner party that is the UN Security Council. How delightful, a decade of privately...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • MEDIA BLOG – Myles Thomas – A World Without Advertising
    Non-commercial broadcasting and media. It’s a solution for all manner of problems ailing our tender nation… voter engagement, unaccountable governance, apathy, stupefaction, public education, science in schools, arts appreciation, cultural cringe… But no-one could’ve guessed that non-commercial media might solve...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October
    March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • Whack a mole as US govt foreign policy
    Whack-A-Mole was a popular arcade game from my youth.  It consisted of a waist high cabinet with holes in the top. Plastic moles seemingly randomly pop out of these holes. The purpose of the game was to hit as many...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • In Paean of Debt
    This week is ‘Money Week’. It’s an opportunity to promote to the middle classes, and anyone else who will listen, the virtues of wise ‘investment’. The aims are to promote the mystical (and indeed mythical) virtues of saving for the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • The last 48 hours – Poverty denial, war denial and unapologetic abuse of ...
    The bewildering speed of events that simply end in Key shrugging and proclaiming he doesn’t really give a shit is coming think and fast as the Government suddenly appreciate the full spectrum dominance they now enjoy. Here is Radio NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Mana 2.0 Rebooted
    Internationally the news is that Evo Morales of Bolivia won big with Left Wing policies But what are the chances that the Left will make a resurgence in this country? As the internecine struggles between the Left and the Right...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Blomfield IPCA letter – Has Dirty Politics leaked into the NZ Police ...
    It’s difficult to know what to make of the IPCA letter to Matthew Blomfield over Slater’s continued insistence that the hard drive taken from Matthew wasn’t stolen.  Slater has selectively cherry picked the Police referring back to his claim that Blomfeild perjured...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • ​Media release: Rail and Maritime Transport Union – Auckland move for K...
    The Rail and Maritime Transport Union is questioning a KiwiRail proposal to progressively relocate its Zero Harm personnel from Wellington to Auckland. “The purpose of the Zero Harm team is to drive KiwiRail’s performance in health and safety.  Rail is a...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Amnesty International – Friend request from an IS militant
    There’s always that one person, that one Facebook friend, usually a musician or event promoter, who, when you so foolishly accept their friend request, will completely inundate your news feed with copious event invitations and promotions. The person who, despite...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • NZ should follow the UK and recognize the Palestinian state
    Over the past two weeks, the United Kingdom and Sweden have made headlines through their decisions to recognize the state of Palestine. They are hardly the first nations to do so. Indeed, 134 countries have, in various ways, given formal...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Discordant Chimes of Freedom: Why Labour has yet to be forgiven.
    WHY DOES THE ELECTORATE routinely punish Labour and the Greens for their alleged “political correctness” but not National? It just doesn’t seem fair. Consider, for example, the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007 – the so-called “anti-smacking legislation” –...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Hosking or Henry – Which right wing crypto fascist clown do you want to w...
    So Mediaworks are finally going to make some actual money from their eye watering contract with Paul Henry by launching a new multi-platform Breakfast show over TV, Radio and internet. This is great news for Campbell Live who have dodged...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Families need more money to reduce child poverty
    Prime Minister John Key is mistaken to rule out extending the In Work Tax Credit to all poor children (The Nation 11th Oct) and Child Poverty Action Group challenges government advisors to come up with a more cost effective way...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – Don’t shit on my dream
    Once were dreamers. A large man, walks down the road and, even from 200 yards there’s light showing between his big arms and bigger body. It’s as if he’s put tennis balls under his arms. Two parking wardens walk out...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Labour and ‘special interests’
    The media narrative of Labour is that it is unpopular because it’s controlled by ‘special interests’. This ‘special interests’ garbage is code for gays, Maoris, wimin and unionists. We should show that argument the contempt it deserves. The next Labour...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Ru...
    . . Continued from: Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Tahi) . National’s housing development project: ‘Gateway’ to confusion . Perhaps nothing better illustrates National’s lack of a coherent housing programme than the ‘circus’ that is...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Here’s what WINZ are patronisingly saying to people on welfare when they ...
    Yesterday, a case manager from WINZ called to tell me that I needed to “imagine what I would do if I did not have welfare”. I replied “Well, I guess if I couldn’t live at home, I would be homeless.”...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • David Shearer’s ‘no feminist chicks’ mentality highlights all that is...
    Mr Nasty pays a visit Shearer’s extraordinary outburst last night on NZs favourite redneck TV, The Paul Henry Show, is a reminder of all that is wrong within the Labour Caucus right now… He said the current calls for a female or...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0
    Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – A Tale Of Two Cities
    Sunday was surreal. I went for a drive and ended up in a different country. It wasn’t intentional but those days of too many literally intertextual references seldom are. There is no doubt that the Sunday drive this week had...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Auckland Rates Rises Out of Control
    Responding to the NZ Herald report that Auckland ratepayers will face an average of a 29 percent rates increase, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says: “These rate rises show that Len Brown's spending is out of control.”...
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Protest at New Plymouth Oil and Gas Expo
    About 30 protesters from Climate Justice Taranaki, Frack-free Kapiti, Te Uru Pounamu Action Group, Oil Free Wellington, Frack-free Manawatu and the east coast protested yesterday outside New Plymouth's biennial Oil and Gas Expo at the TSB Stadium....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • FMA warns consumers about cold-calling investment offers
    The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) is warning New Zealand consumers and investors to be wary of cold-calls asking them to buy shares or put their money into offshore firms....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Comprehensive plan needed to end child poverty
    Child Poverty Action Group says it is vital the newly re-elected National government takes a planned and comprehensive approach to reducing child poverty in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Metiria Gets Feed the Kids
    Yesterday the Speaker of the House advised that he had accepted my request to transfer my Feed the Kids (Education (Breakfast and Lunch Programmes in Schools) Amendment) Bill to Metiria Turei of the Green Party....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • DIA undercover investigation leads to jailing
    An undercover Internal Affairs investigation has led to a Hastings man being jailed for three and half years....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Call on Minister McCully to pursue the case of Balibo Five
    Media Information: Call on Minister McCully to pursue the case of journalist Gary Cunningham and the Balibo Five...
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Australia and NZ actions on press freedoms alarming
    Global support for investigative journalism in Australia and New Zealand is a welcome response to law changes and a police raid, says the Pacific Freedom Forum...
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Call for release of French journalists in West Papua
    West Papua Action Auckland, the EPMU Print and Media Council and the NZ Media Freedom Network call on the Minister of Foreign Affairs to speak out in support of the two French TV journalists whose trial has just begun in...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Court of Appeal: Dotcom v 20th Century Fox Film Corporation
    A The appeal is dismissed. B The 20 August 2014 order of the High Court dealing with confidentiality and the 29 August 2014 order of this Court dealing with confidentiality are set aside. C The confidentiality orders set out in...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Glassons Blasted For Glamourising Animal Cruelty
    Clothing brand Glassons have found themselves embroiled in another controversy after launching a new advert featuring a girl riding a bull. Animal advocacy organisation SAFE have asked them to remove the ad immediately as it glamourises animal cruelty....
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Smuggling honey into New Zealand isn’t sweet
    Smuggling honey into New Zealand isn’t sweet Federated Farmers Bee Industry Group applauds the tough line taken by Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) Border Staff at Auckland Airport. In deporting the couple found trying to smuggle bee products...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Taxpayers’ Union Responds to Joyce on Corporate Welfare
    Responding to Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce’s defence of corporate welfare , Jim Rose, the author of Monopoly Money , a Taxpayers Union report on corporate welfare since 2008, says:...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Speech from the Throne brings welcome focus on children
    Today’s speech from the Throne confirms the Government’s focus on children, youth and their families in the areas of health, education, youth employment, poverty alleviation and Whānau Ora; now the challenge is to ensure every child in New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • John’s Job Fairs no fix for unemployment and poverty
    “John Key has clearly been looking to the US for his latest bright idea on dealing with employment issues,” says Auckland Action Against Poverty coordinator Sue Bradford. “Job fairs where the desperately unemployed queue in their corporate best to compete...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Speech From the Throne Foreshadows More Corporate Welfare
    Responding to the Governor General’s Speech from the Throne, which outlined that the Government’s intentions for the next Parliamentary term would include further Business Growth Agenda initiatives, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Green MP to speak at panel on Rainbow Mental Health
    Hamilton, New Zealand: Recently re-elected Green Party MP Jan Logie will be a guest speaker at a panel on the mental health of Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Trangender, Takataapui and Intersex people taking place on November 1st as part of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Evidence Supports GE Moratorium
    Federated Farmers spokesman Graham Smith's call for a 'rethink' on release of GeneticallyEngineered organisms is misguided, and instead it is time for a formal moratorium on GMOs in the environment.(1)...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Chatham Rise mining could have impact on whales and dolphins
    Wellington, 21 October 2014--Mining phosphate on the Chatham Rise, off the east coast of New Zealand’s south island, could potentially have many impacts on marine mammals like whales and dolphins, the Environmental Protection Agency was told today....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Council endorses Nanaia Mahuta as the next Labour leader
    Te Kaunihera Māori, the Māori Council of the New Zealand Labour Party, have passed a resolution to endorse the Hon Nanaia Mahuta as the next leader of the Labour Party...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Kaumatua to organise petition to end Maori seats
    Ngapuhi kaumatua David Rankin has announced that he will be organising a nationwide petition to seek support from Maori voters to end the Maori seats. “These seats are patronising”, he says. “They imply we need a special status, and that...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Announcing a New Voice for The Left
    Josh Forman is pleased to announce the creation of a new force on the Left of politics in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Public services held back by poor workplace culture
    A new report by Victoria University’s Centre for Labour, Employment and Work shows that public servants are working significant unpaid overtime to ensure the public services New Zealanders value are able to continue....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update
    Andrew Little’s probability of being the next leader of the Labour Party has reached 70% and Jacinda Ardern is favourite to become his deputy, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Prison Drug Treatment Unit marks a milestone
    Christchurch Men’s Prison’s Drug Treatment Unit (DTU) celebrated the completion of its 50th six month Drug and Alcohol Programme today, with the graduation of a further twelve offenders....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Security Council seat a chance for NZ to empower women
    The UN Women National Committee Aotearoa New Zealand (UN Women NCANZ) welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use its position to proactively promote effective implementation of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Waipareira and ACC sign Partnership
    Waipareira and The Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding at Whanau Centre, Henderson – marking a special day for the West Auckland Urban Maori organisation....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Humanitarian aid desperately needed in Iraq and Syria
    Global Peace and Justice Auckland is calling on the government to provide humanitarian funding for non-aligned NGOs (non-governmental organisations) in the Middle East rather than give any support whatever for the US-led military campaign in the area....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Court Judicial Decision: Dotcom v The USA: 17 October 2014
    The United States of America is seeking the extradition of Messrs Dotcom, Batato, Ortmann and Van Der Kolk. The matter has been before the Courts on numerous occasions, and no further recitation of the facts is needed....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Marshall Island poet speaks at UN climate summit
    “The fossil fuel industry is the biggest threat to our very existence as Pacific Islanders. We stand to lose our homes, our communities and our culture. But we are fighting back. This coming Friday thirty Pacific Climate Warriors, joined by...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Many tourist car accidents preventable
    Simple steps could dramatically reduce the number of accidents involving tourists, says the car review website dogandlemon.com ....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • RainbowYOUTH: 25 Years, 25 More
    In 1989, a group of young people in Auckland got together to form a support group for LGBTIQ youth. They called it Auckland Lesbian And Gay Youth (ALGY). After 25 years, several location changes, a name change, a brand reboot...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Outdated Oath shows need for Kiwi Head of State
    MPs are sworn in today and New Zealand Republic has written to MPs asking them to talk about why 121 New Zealanders elected by the people of New Zealand and standing in the New Zealand Parliament swear allegiance to another...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Council shouldn’t revenue grab from windfall valuations
    Auckland Council should state clearly they will not try and capture revenue as a result of the latest valuations and needs reminding that the City’s skyrocketing property values doesn’t change the level or cost of Council’s services, says...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • EPMU endorses Andrew Little for Labour leadership
    The National Executive of the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union unanimously endorsed Andrew Little for the role of Labour leader, at a meeting held yesterday. “I have been speaking to our workplace delegates at forums across the country over...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • World Food Day promotes Agroecology not GE technology
    The UN has stated that agroecology is a major solution to feeding the world and caring for the earth....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Labour Names Review Team
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review. He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Contenders for Labour leadership debate for first time
    The contenders for the leadership of the Labour Party debated for the first time on TV One’s Q+A programme today....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • UN Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme
    New Zealand's United Nations Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme....
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully
    Murray McCully says New Zealanders can expect a 5-10 year engagement against Islamic State if we join military action in Iraq and the government will take that “very carefully into account”...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard says there is “sufficient evidence” to fight Islamic State and does not think it will increase the risk of a domestic attack...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • NZ businesses to make child abuse a priority conversation
    Many leading New Zealand businesses have partnered with national child advocacy organisation Child Matters to participate in the fourth annual ‘Buddy Day’ - New Zealand’s only child abuse prevention awareness day....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Tribunal decision significant for SMEs
    The Human Rights Review Tribunal decided this week in favour of an employee’s right not to work on Saturdays for religious reasons. The decision may still be appealed but the Director of the Office of Human Rights Proceedings, Robert Kee,...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • On The Nation this weekend
    This weekend on The Nation… New Zealand has been elected to the United Nations Security Council, but what happens next? Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully from New York about our goals for reform, what America wants from us...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • 1000+ supported by Te Arawa Whanau Ora
    Over 1000 individual whānau members are leading happier, healthier, more successful lives as a result of eight passionate and committed Māori organisations working at the coalface to help whānau find success....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Nomination for Board Members Now Open
    CRF’s objective is to create opportunities for people from refugee backgrounds to lead fulfilling lives and contribute to every area of New Zealand society. It is an organisation that undertakes advocacy work using the strengths-based approach,...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Anglican Family Care Otago staff to take industrial action
    Social workers, family workers and support staff working for Anglican Family Care in Dunedin and South Otago will take industrial action after their employer refused a pay increase that would keep up with the rising cost of living....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Use UN Security Council role to overcome inaction and injust
    Amnesty International welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the UN Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use the role to ensure the body lives up to its role of safeguarding global peace and security....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
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