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Roy Morgan – easy win for Labour/Greens?

Written By: - Date published: 6:54 pm, October 17th, 2013 - 104 comments
Categories: election 2014, greens, Judith Collins, labour, uncategorized - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour 37%, Green 12.5%, and National down to 41.5%. As Roy Morgan says, this is the closest Labour has been since 2008.  Morgan’s comment:

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.

There are some other interesting features in the poll. National’s numbers have gone from 51 to 41.5 in a little over two months. They’re tanking, and that is before the latest news hits about their reliance on the indicted John Banks. Roy Morgan numbers do bounce around a bit, but the trend lines are steadily converging. The Government confidence rating is down 5.5% with the right direction  number dropping 4%.

According to Morgan:

“New Labour Party Leader David Cunliffe has re-invigorated the main Opposition Labour Party (37%, unchanged) who are now just 4.5% behind National – the closest Labour has been for five years since October 2008 when Labour was still in Government under former Prime Minister Helen Clark.”

The Conservatives have dropped from 2% to 0.5% – no help there. Collins for Leader anyone?

The report series is graphed here:

5243-nzvote-large

 

104 comments on “Roy Morgan – easy win for Labour/Greens?”

  1. McFlock 1

    I’m wondering if they’ll just ditch ACT’s shenanigans and run a conservative in epsom this time

    • Lanthanide 1.1

      Very tricky prospect, since Act are socially liberal. Goldsmith was only ~2k votes away from winning at the last election. Surely that was largely buoyed by lefties, but I think a Conservative standing in Epsom would lose to National.

      • felix 1.1.1

        Epsom doesn’t vote ACT because of anything ACT are or pretend to be, socially or otherwise. It’s far from a hotbed of social liberalism.

        • Lanthanide 1.1.1.1

          But I’d think the people that vote National or Act are probably more socially liberal than those that vote conservative.

          My point was really that even with the cuppa tea, Goldsmith wasn’t that far off winning.

          • felix 1.1.1.1.1

            No-one in Epsom votes for ACT. They vote ACT for National. It’s a National seat.

            Your point about Goldsmith is exactly what I’m saying, there’s nothing “socially liberal” about him.

          • Murray Olsen 1.1.1.1.2

            I wouldn’t be sure at all about liberal people in Epsom. I was shocked when I started university to get to know a St Cuthbert’s girl who had never eaten kumara because her mother thought it was Maori food. Worse, none of her friends had ever eaten it either.

        • RJL 1.1.1.2

          You are right, that Epsom does not vote ACT because of ACT. Epsom votes ACT because of the potential boost to National.

          However, while Epsom certain is capable of swallowing dead rats like Banks, it is not a given that the Epsom electorate would likewise lie down with the likes of Colin Craig. It’s about what the electorate tells itself in the wee small hours of the night…at least Epsom can pretend to itself that (elements of) ACT are tolerable.

      • Act *flirted* with being socially liberal from time to time. I’m not sure you can really call them that given their recent (ie. last two terms) record.

        • Lanthanide 1.1.2.1

          Act on campus certainly are, though.

          • TheContrarian 1.1.2.1.1

            ACT was meant to be socially liberal but the core has been ripped out from the ACT’s social policy. Hell even Brash advocated loosening drug laws but you would never get that from Banks.

          • Colonial Viper 1.1.2.1.2

            Act on campus certainly are, though.

            When was the last time someone from ACT on Campus actually made it into the ACT caucus?

            • Lanthanide 1.1.2.1.2.1

              Act on campus vote for Act, which get people from the Act party list into parliament.

              • McFlock

                AoC are probably low double figures votes-wise.
                What they do, however, is publicly campaign for old, white males of questionable competence, and therefore make ACT look less… old.

                But then having supported known social liberal John Banks, I’m not sure how well they think these things through.

                • Lanthanide

                  Actual AoC members votes may be in the double-figures. But they will pull in a few hundred more from like-minded university students. Unfortunately there are some.

                  • McFlock

                    maybe, at a larger university.

                    But the point remains that AoC do not determine act social policy – as far as I could see they were self-important toryboys who thought sycophancy was a political career path. So they are all to eager to swallow a dead turd and actively campaign for banks and brash, FFS.

                    If AoC are socially liberal, and AoC gather significant levels of votes for ACT, and AoC acually put those two points together, then as CV says there would be visible ramifications of that in who was placed where on the list, and also in terms of social policy.

                    The last social liberal I can recall on act caucus was Heather Roy.

                • Rogue Trooper

                  Reminded me of this Cur ; winner.

      • Craig 1.1.3

        Epsom is an urban liberal seat- look at Rodney Hide’s initial victory over Nat sock con Richard Worth, and what happened when former avowed sock con Banks stood for it as his replacement in 2011. Granted, Banks might have secured some credit for supporting marriage equality, but at the moment, given Paul Goldsmith’s relative liberalism, I think that if ACT loses the seat, it may revert back to National. The Cons would get slaughtered in such a seat.

    • felix 1.2

      They will if they have any nous left at all. Which is far from certain.

  2. pollywog 2

    DC FTW!!!

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      Yep. Like many of us have been saying for what felt like fucking years.

      • weka 2.1.1

        and thank god you did keep saying it :-)

      • The Al1en 2.1.2

        Give it another six months and it’ll come right, oh no wait on, that was that other guy. How times change.
        Two 37% polls on the trot, the highest since HC, and only a 2.5% steal off the nats to be level pegging in the two party stakes. Much more like it, though not much humble pie being wolfed down, well, not in public anyway. No matter. 😉

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1

          McFlock reckoned the ‘slightly rising’ trend would have hit here under the other guy as well. Possibly before the sun went dark.

          • The Al1en 2.1.2.1.1

            Maybe, just before he checks a winning lotto ticket, lying in bed next to a supermodel in his pjs made from unicorn farts.

            Good job some political commentators know their arses from their genuine contenders.

            Edit.
            Though we shouldn’t be too hard on McFlock, after all, Shearer’s magnetic personality, competent performance and winning smile made his charm hard to resist.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1.1.1

              Yes, congratulations on that :)

              • The Al1en

                Yeah, and to all fellow realists.

                I’m growing my arms so I can pat myself on the back come next election when, fingers crossed, DC storms the debates cementing the Lab/Green landslide.

                • Colonial Viper

                  DC storms the debates cementing the Lab/Green landslide.

                  Given that the sir name “Cunliffe” suggests a steep slope with a cleft or crevasse, a landslide seems a possibility. Although, let’s not tempt fate 😈

          • McFlock 2.1.2.1.2

            let’s see- a 3 point boost following outstanding publicity from the leadership contest, then no change. You note the headline is strictly due to Green recovery.

            Don’t let reality get in the way of a good gloat, though.

  3. Ant 3

    Hopefully this can be a lesson that the party members know what the party needs, more so than media commentators.

  4. Red Rosa 4

    No win against National is an easy win. Len Brown can tell you that. They have all the advantages of money and power, and can fight like rats in traps when cornered. Copies of The Hollow Men should be dusted off and studied for likely strategies in the coming months.

    • Saarbo 4.1

      Yes, National will react. With Cunliffe at the helm Labour is going to get stronger as we progress through 2014, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Key announce a snap election, as early as April.

      • Yeah it’s looking clearer that unless they can manufacture or find a scandal, time isn’t going to be the government’s friend.

      • Sosoo 4.1.2

        Are you sure it will be Key? He’s had a pretty easy run for nearly six years, and I would not be completely surprised if he decides during Xmas with family that it’s time to call it a day.

        I’ve thought that Key was getting a bit pissed off with the job earlier this year, and his government is fast disintegrating. He’s lost two ministers and I would not be surprised to see either Smith or Parata forced to resign. The former has obviously done himself no favours over the dam, and the latter is obviously and luminously incompetent. Someone said the other day that it is starting to look like the last days of the Shipley government, and I think they are right about that.

        Why stay on to get smacked around by Cunliffe and company, who look like a different team since the leadership change? Why not plead family issues and head into retirement with your reputation fairly intact as a “good bloke”?

        • tc 4.1.2.1

          +1

          Key will not like a real fight, he’s a fair weather player and nasty when brought to heel by the media which is virtually never.

          Depends on those hollowmen agreements as to whether he’ll take it to the polls IMO what we get told is another matter.

  5. Calltoaccount 5

    Nice to see the G to Lab slide has stopped, but the Nits seem to have plugged their leak too. Hmmm.

  6. MrSmith 6

    More reinforcement of Cunliffe, great news for Labour and the Greens, all the while Key keeps cracking jokes but hardly anyones laughing now.

    • Rogue Trooper 6.1

      have only ever laughed at him.

    • North 6.2

      That is the perfect analysis.

      People generally not laughing anymore.

      Even the likes of BM and Chris73 notice the mood change.

      That’s why they’re behaving like they are right now. Jesus, imagine when Sorylands gets back !

      Missing that “Sixty-Two-Percent” rave Chris73 was fond of spitting out.

  7. weka 7

    For those of us living in an MMP world 😉 here’s how the other parties factor in –

    Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs % of MPs
    ACT New Zealand 0.00% 0 1 0 1 * 0.81%
    Green Party 12.50% 15 0 15 15 12.20%
    Labour Party 37.00% 45 0 45 45 36.59%
    Mana 0.50% 1 1 0 1 0.81%
    Māori Party 1.50% 2 3 0 3 * 2.44%
    National Party 41.50% 51 0 51 51 41.46%
    New Zealand First Party 5.00% 6 0 6 6 4.88%
    United Future 0.00% 0 1 0 1 * 0.81%
    Totals 98.00% 120 6 117 123 100.00%

    http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0&electorateSeats_0=1&partyName_1=Alliance&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative+Party&partyVote_3=0.5&electorateSeats_3=0&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=12.5&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Labour+Party&partyVote_6=37&electorateSeats_6=0&partyName_7=Libertarianz&partyVote_7=0&electorateSeats_7=0&partyName_8=Mana&partyVote_8=0.5&electorateSeats_8=1&partyName_9=M%C4%81ori+Party&partyVote_9=1.5&electorateSeats_9=3&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=41.5&electorateSeats_10=0&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=5&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=United+Future&partyVote_12=0&electorateSeats_12=1&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=1&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=13&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats

  8. Tiger Mountain 8

    They don’t like it up ’em Captain Mannering

  9. gobsmacked 9

    Acknowledging the usual caveats (margins of error, bounces, etc), it does seem like a significant change has happened.

    National had a successful Plan A, from 2006 to 2011 – in short, it was “nice Mr Key”. They did this remarkably well, with good PR and a tactically astute (short-term) leader.

    Plan A ended just before the election, when Key decided John Banks and police raids would help him with swing voters, and unsurprisingly, it didn’t. They’ve looked vulnerable ever since.

    However, Labour decided post-election that it was unsporting to be a smart, strong opposition, so they kindly gave Key an extra 20 months of glide time. We waited – and wept – and eventually the Labour caucus woke up. Even after Cunliffe took over, the unhappy ones have kept quiet, and hey presto! – no more negative headlines, discipline improves, and voters like it.

    National’s problem is that Plan B from the Right Wing playbook is the opposite of “Nice Mr Key”. They can scare and chuck dirt and push buttons and that may deliver a “sugar high”, but … it also tarnishes their greatest asset.

    Their best option is to send Slater to the South Pole (with no internet access), keep smiling, and deliver some targeted lollies in election year. But I’m guessing they’ll take the low road instead. So it’ll get nasty.

    Memo to opposition: Don’t play their game, don’t get sucked in, and you’ll win.

    • North 9.1

      Makes good reading Gobsmacked. Thanks.

    • tc 9.2

      Yup, take the high road as it’s less traffic so you can plot your own course.

      Plan B is a losing plan for sure, Key behaves like steptoe/gecko/Scrooge/blankfien rolled into one without the smooth delivery expected of a merchant artiste.

      It’s all they’ve got with their charter schools, nat stds, asset sales etc all tanking as expected and the enfant terrible blubbing away with many hatchets he wants to bury anyway he can.

  10. jaymam 10

    Lab plus NZ1 are higher than Nats.
    So, Prime Minster David Cunliffe and Deputy Winston Peters. Greens not needed! :)

  11. Rogue Trooper 11

    a further inter-lewd
    -“You can while away our hours you can talk in tongues
    Throw your promises [maybe] until kingdom come
    Cast your bread upon the waters see what it may bring
    …Desperate men do desperate things.

    “Come on talk to me [maybe] talk big and be brave
    It’s not your only reputation that you’re trying to save
    [We’ve] had you under observation you’re into various pain
    And desperate men do desperate things.

    […] (thanks joe90)

    Let it out [maybe] stir it up and mix it in
    Two parts religion three parts sin
    It’s the truth or consequences because the new king reigns
    Still, desperate men do desperate things”.

    -Jimmy Lafave.
    [La Zona Rosa]

  12. Philgwellington Wellington 12

    Can’t see an early election call from this poll. More likely that JK might cut and run if it gets too hard. Will JK make it to the next general election? Will he jump or get the knife? How many more scandals can JK take?

    e?

  13. North 13

    Arrogant prick would be prepared to handle heaps more. Neat thing is “we” won’t.

  14. red blooded 14

    Jayman, I would be really unhappy if Lab betrayed the Greens again and went withNZ First. Yes, I know there is competition for the Left(ish) vote, but the Greens have kept the flag flying and held the govt to account for the last couple of years. They’ve also been willing to sign up to policy like the bulk purchase of power by the state and housing policy. They helped Labour to stay afloat over the last couple of years. He’ll, they’ve served their time and have supported Labour both in government and in opposition. NZ First betrayed Labour when they signed up with Bolger, then tarnished the Clarke government with the donations issues. I would very quickly lose respect for Cunliffe and his team if Winnie was treated with more respect than the Greens.

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      red blooded. All good points, but that is sympathy you are raising, not strategy, and sympathy falls well short in this arena, IMO. In terms of strategy:

      The Greens will definitely want to come to the table with a strong number of MPs. At least twice the number Winston can raise would be symbolic. Meteria and Russel need to shore up their personal relationships with the Labour leadership. The Green caucus need to deepen connections with their Labour Party colleagues. Ordinary Green party members have to set expectations in the public arena that the quality and stability of the Green caucus is a far greater asset to a Labour led government than anything Winston can put together; that is a meme which needs to be pushed far and wide.

      Meteria and Russel have to make the point to Cunliffe that if needed, both of them can help Labour lead a government through 4 rough, tough terms.

      And, who really knows if Winston has more than one more term left in him, and why would a new government with a new leader want to take that risk.

      (No charge).

      • weka 14.1.1

        “At least twice the number Winston can raise would be symbolic.”

        At today’s count they’re already past that. Maybe they should go for 3x the number 😈

    • richard 14.2

      I think that for the long term future of the Greens they should keep away from a coalition deal with labour. Both major parties are carnivorous beasts when it comes to coalition partners and the greens could well have to suffer 3 years of getting the blame for any unpopular decision the government makes. Witness NZF and The Alliance.

  15. Ron 15

    What absolutely marvellous news and will be a great lift to DC at his first conference as leader.
    Would not miss this conference for anything.
    Anyone else going downto shaky city

  16. Ad 16

    I predict Labour will overtake National and is steady afterwards on early 40s.

    On that, I predict Labour does not form a full coalition with the Greens, and instead picks and chooses supporters issue by issue.

    • Saarbo 16.1

      It will be interesting if this happens, some National voters Ive spoken too would swing to Labour but have a fear of the Greens economic policies (their view, not mine), so if Labour climb above National we could see another step up in their support. Meanwhile National will be using Labour’s coalition with the Greens as a fear tactic that Labour are extreme Left, this tactic seems to work.

      Personally I would like to see the Greens in a coalition government with Labour, they do great work…particularly Metiria Turei, she’s outstanding…and Russel Norman is pretty good as well (IMHO).

      • Pascal's bookie 16.1.1

        Meanwhile National will be using Labour’s coalition with the Greens as a fear tactic that Labour are extreme Left, this tactic seems to work.

        Ahem. If you scroll up you will see a graph of how well it’s been working. You could even hunt down Key’s “devilbeast” comment as a marker for their evil greens will eat your souls strategy. There is no sign whatsoever that it is working, as far as I can see.

      • Gareth 16.1.2

        The swing doesn’t just go to Labour, it works the other way too. I know one National voter who is dead set on tossing this current government out but can’t bring himself to vote for the traditional enemy, so he’s said he’s voting Green. He’s an exporter and has been approving of what Norman’s been saying about protecting the export sector.

    • Pete 16.2

      I think the asset sales referendum will help in that regard. I expect low turnout on that, but it should crystalise some points of difference for those who are usually not that interested in politics.

  17. red blooded 17

    CV, re the Greens – I am not talking sympathy, but strategy. Lab were damaged significantly last time by the association with NZF. Winston and that damn ‘No’ sign were an embarrassment. Besides, there are plenty of Left voters who are keen for a good representatives of Gs in government. If they are excluded yet again, people like me will be strongly tempted to switch our votes next time and make it impossible for Lab to look past them because they are such a big voting block. And it’s a sign of good faith and whether any upcoming Lab lead govt will be straight dealers. They have given indications and assurances about working with the Gs in the next term. If they default on that it will be a very shoddy look.

    • Colonial Viper 17.1

      You’ve described what you think you should happen between Labour and the Greens and why; I’ve merely focused on the ‘how’.

  18. lurgee 18

    “National’s numbers have gone from 51 to 41.5 in a little over two months”

    That’s a silly comment. You’re doing what climate change deniers do when they draw lines starting at 1998 and claim this shows the planet is cooling.

    The 51.5 result was a blatant rogue. It looks like Labour have received a bit of a sustained boost from the leadership change – something I admit I said would not happen – but for goodness sake don’t dick about with the figures like that.

    • bad12 18.1

      Yes through most of the year i have been saying that across all the public polling the numbers for National were far too high, mostly, having no proof of out-right fraud, i have commented that National’s numbers were being read from the high side of the margin of error and Labour’s from the low side of that margin,

      Of course anyone with an interest could now try and make the case that this situation has simply been reversed, but, the ‘trend’, except for the ‘governing alone’ polls of the wishful thinkers has been a slow almost imperceptible slide for National,

      Labour having belatedly seen the light and having installed as leader David Cunliffe whom the membership had constantly demanded as leader would now seem to be more than comfortably ensconced in the high 30’s and i am going to predict that both Labour and National as the big two will enter the 2014 election race locked together at 39-40%,

      Bad news that for National of course as in the past decade it’s now minor coalition partners, ACT and United Future have burned away all their political capital and the Maori Party in my opinion faces in November 2014 electoral oblivion with a slim chance of retaining one MP in the Parliament,

      Bad enough as these numbers are for National, i predict that they can and will get worse, there is a point in the electoral cycle where the electorate crosses a line where there is no way back for a particular Government,

      For Slippery the Prime Minister i believe that such a line was crossed with His handling of the GCSB Legislation, and funnily enough He has only His ego to blame, my view of the GCSB furore is that if he had of held that ‘public inquiry’ into the GCSB and SIS it would have first placated the right wing voters deeply disturbed by the ramifications of the GCSB Legislation along with droning on to the point where the electorate were also placated and National could have got away with the passing of much the same Legislation as it did without suffering the ongoing political fallout,

      Far too late to take it back, Slippery the PM must now either fall upon His own sword or watch the polls in horror, awaiting to get rolled in the inevitable bloody palace coup…

  19. Skinny 19

    I said for sometime National at the next election will suffer a landslide loss. The public are awake to all the spin and as the polls clearly show have had a gutsful of the glib mouthed Key & his flunkies. Labour & the Greens will have the mandate to move further left than they would have thought. Nice!

  20. LOL!!!!!

    And Ralph Nader is going to win in 2016.

    • fender 20.1

      I’m not surprised you keep your head in the sand and can’t handle the reality that the National Party support is slip-sliding-away. Please make sure you are here after the next election, because it’s looking more and more likely you will have many slices of humble pie to consume, and I’d hate to see you miss out.

    • Tracey 20.2

      Again your sharp analysis leaves us all in awe.

    • McFlock 20.3

      meow

    • bad12 20.4

      Please retire back to the sewer from whence you sprang and send in a better class of ‘wing-nut’ wont you Brett Dale, someone with the intellectual capability of posting comments that rise above DERRRR in content would be a bonus…

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    Humanitarian agencies are preparing large-scale aid operations to earthquake-ravaged Nepal, with tonnes of supplies being flown into the country. Photo: AFP More than 4000 people are known to have died in the 7.8 quake on Saturday and more… ...
    21 hours ago
  • Cave Creek tragedy marked 20 years on
    Commemorations are taking place today to mark 20 years since the Cave Creek disaster that claimed 14 lives. Thirteen Tai Poutini Polytechnic outdoor recreation students and a Department of Conservation officer died when a DoC viewing platform collapsed into a… ...
    21 hours ago
  • The X Factor NZ: Back to black
    This week was yet another reminder that beneath a thin veneer of order, chaos still reigns at X Factor NZ. X Factor's Steve Broad. Photo: The X Factor NZ With the announcement this week that Dominic Bowden… ...
    22 hours ago
  • Envirologue: Too Big to Fail – Why National will Never Act on Climate Cha...
    Californians, withering in the worst drought in the state’s history, are being exhorted to leave their urine standing in the toilet, to keep their showers shorter than five minutes and to replace their lawns with rocks and cacti. Meanwhile, figures… ...
    22 hours ago
  • More thoughts on Light Rail details
    On the closed session agenda for tomorrow’s Auckland Transport board meeting is an item asking for a decision about Light Rail. Hopefully this will see the project move forward and the public provided with more information. With that in mind… ...
    23 hours ago
  • Questions and Answers – April 28
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    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    24 hours ago
  • The “I” factor in political practice
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    Colin JamesBy Colin James
    1 day ago
  • A Programme of Phased Cuts in Company Tax
    Column – ACT New Zealand Over-taxing mobile capital is not a good idea not if you want jobs and higher wages anyway. Last week the ACT Leader announced a plan for a programme of phased reductions in the company… ...
    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    1 day ago
  • Trade Minister Cheers Big Corporation Over Ordinary People
    Press Release – New Zealand First Party Trade Minister Tim Grosers cheerleader role for the United States to speed up the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement is worrying, says New Zealand First Trade Spokesperson Fletcher Tabuteau.Trade Minister Cheers Big Corporation Over… ...
    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    1 day ago
  • My other grandfather
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    Bat bean beamBy Giovanni Tiso
    1 day ago
  • US: the state’s systematic violence kills another young black man
    Freddie Gray: brutally murdered by Baltimore cops by The Spark A young man is dead in Baltimore, killed by six murdering cops. In the same week, a murdering cop goes free in Chicago when a prosecutor and a judge tie… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 day ago
  • Questions For Oral Answer April 28
    Press Release – Office of the Clerk 1. CHRIS BISHOP to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received about lower than expected inflation in New Zealand? QUESTIONS TO MINISTERS 1. CHRIS BISHOP to the Minister of Finance: What… ...
    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    1 day ago
  • Hobbling Democracy: TPPA and The Covenant of Secrecy
    Opinion – Binoy Kampmark The TTIP and TPPA, both sounding like ominous injections of political disaster, continue their march towards belittling, and corroding the democratic content of its participating countries. The holder of the needle remains US President Barack Obama,… ...
    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    1 day ago
  • The Decline and Fall of the United States | David Swanson
    Opinion – David Swanson After a speech I gave this past weekend, a young woman asked me whether a failure by the United States to properly surround and intimidate China might result in instability. I explained why I thought the… ...
    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    1 day ago
  • Fearing the loss of Hegemony: The Concept of US Retreat
    Opinion – Binoy Kampmark Nothing upsets those drunk on imperialist virtue than the fact it might end. Such romances with power do have a use-by-date, going off like old fruit. Eventually, the crippling contradictions will win through in the end.… ...
    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    1 day ago
  • Strong Support for Clarification of GMO Council Jurisdiction
    Press Release – GE Free NZ On Friday, 24 April GE Free Northland and the Soil & Health Association of NZ with 19 other 274 parties sought clarification in the Environment Court on whether there is jurisdiction in the Resource… ...
    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    1 day ago
  • Should Environmentalists Care About Poverty?
    Perhaps heightened by the leadership contest in the Green Party, there appears to be a debate going on about where environmentalism fits into the political spectrum. I am not a member of the Green Party (nor any other, for that… ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 day ago
  • Inoculating against science denial
    Science denial has real, societal consequences. Denial of the link between HIV and AIDS led to more than 330,000 premature deaths in South Africa. Denial of the link between smoking and cancer has caused millions of premature deaths. Thanks to… ...
    2 days ago
  • A year ago today – Auckland’s first electric trains
    A year ago today transport in Auckland was forever changed as the first electric trains started carrying passengers – although they didn’t start running in normal service till the following day. Electrifying Auckland’s rail network is something that had been… ...
    2 days ago
  • Media Link: Anzac Day panel on future conflicts.
    Commemorations of the 100th anniversary of the ill-fated assault at Gallipoli prompted Radio New Zealand to convene a special panel on the evolution and future of conflict since those tragic and futile days in 1915. I was invited to participate… ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 days ago
  • Australian cops shut down Aboriginal Anzac Day march
    The article below deals with the erasing of the Frontier Wars in Australia.  Something similar has happened in relation to the Land Wars in New Zealand.  The wars of conquest and confiscation of Maori land are totally eclipsed by carefully-constructed… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • After World War 1: the horrors of peace at home (Australia)
    The small number of people involved in Redline means we simply don’t have the possibility to cover everything we’d like to.  This includes some very important stuff.  For instance, an article about what NZ soldiers came home to, an equivalent… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: Anzac Day II
    I spent a couple of hours at our local RSA on Saturday. It was well past the traditional solemnity of the morning, well into the drinking. The old fellows drank like soldiers and the soldiers, there in their uniforms, with… ...
    2 days ago
  • Pony-tails, panic and PR spin.
    How Crosby-Textor propose to rescue Key from the fall out over his casual Pony-Tail stroking.Rumour has it that the Crosby-Textor spin machine that elevated John Key to the leadership of the National Party and thence to Prime Minister of NZ… ...
    the Irascible CurmudgeonBy Alan Papprill
    2 days ago
  • Poor peer review – and its consequences
    See below for citations used The diagram above displays links between the journal, editors and reviewers in the case of the paper Malin & Till (2015). I discussed these links before in Poor peer-review – a case study  but thought… ...
    2 days ago
  • Capture: April Come She Will
    Over the month of April I've started a number of threads, but not quite found the time or inspiration to reach a critical mass.Looking back though, it was a fairly packed month, as we ease our way into autumn.So here's… ...
    2 days ago
  • Has John Key tugged off more than he realises?
    John Key's pony-tail-gate controversy seems to have divided people into two camps. The vast bulk of New Zealanders (to purloin a Key-ism) can agree on the fact that it's weird... and out of order. But then there are those who… ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    2 days ago
  • Rodney Hide: They’re all after me, man…
    The state apparently has me under covert investigation. It all started a couple of weeks ago when I was followed home by some guy in a long coat and dark glasses. It was 27 degrees and cloudy. My friends have… ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    2 days ago
  • The road to Mike Hosking, vilifier of young women
    Some of us have always seen radio announcer Mike Hosking as a puffed-up little prat. I was there at Broadcasting House when this shortish young guy with a big voice and a very strange manner arrived in the Network Newsroom.… ...
    The PaepaeBy Peter Aranyi
    2 days ago
  • Hey RaboDirect, if Mike Hosking’s selling you, I’m not buying.
    A nasty side of radio announcer Mike Hosking spilled out into view last week as he ‘bashed’ the victim of John Key’s serial bullying. Hosking, supported by TVNZ’s OneNews, sponsored by RaboDirect, vilified the waitress whom the Prime Minister admits… ...
    The PaepaeBy Peter Aranyi
    2 days ago
  • Is Auckland boring enough?
    Via Jarrett Walker, I recently ran across a provocative article by Aaron Renn in the Guardian: “In praise of boring cities“. Renn takes his fellow urbanists to task for the narrowness of their vision about what makes a good city:… ...
    Transport BlogBy Peter Nunns
    2 days ago

  • More hype and half-truths from Coleman
    The rising incidence of rheumatic fever has nothing to do with ‘families having a better understanding of the disease’ as the Health Minister wants us to believe but everything to do with his failure to address the root causes of… ...
    14 hours ago
  • Regional air routes must be maintained
    The Government must use its majority shareholding to make sure Air New Zealand cooperates with second tier airlines stepping into the regional routes it has abandoned, Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford says. Air New Zealand’s cancellation of its Kaitaia, Whakatane,… ...
    16 hours ago
  • Action needed on decades old arms promise
    Nuclear weapons states must honour the unequivocal promise they made 45 years ago to disarm, says Labour’s Disarmament Spokesperson Phil Goff. Mr Goff is attending the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference at the United Nations in New York. ...
    18 hours ago
  • Worker safety top of mind tomorrow and beyond
    Workers’ Memorial Day, commemorated tomorrow, is both a time to reflect and to encourage a better safety culture in all workplaces, says Labour’s spokesperson for Labour Issues Iain Lees-Galloway.“On Worker’s Memorial Day, working people across New Zealand will remember those… ...
    2 days ago
  • Communities forced to stomach water woes
    Confirmation by Health Minister Jonathan Coleman that he is to wind up a water quality improvement scheme will leave thousands of Kiwis with no alternative but to continue boiling their drinking water, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. The Drinking… ...
    2 days ago
  • Labour calls for immediate humanitarian aid for Nepal
    The Government should act immediately to help with earthquake relief efforts in Nepal, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “The Nepalese Government is appealing for international assistance following yesterday’s massive quake. The full impact is only now being realised… ...
    2 days ago
  • New holiday reflects significance of Anzac Day
    Anzac Day now has the full recognition that other public holidays have long enjoyed, reflecting the growing significance it has to our sense of identity and pride as a nation, Labour MP David Clark says.“The importance of the 100th Gallipoli… ...
    2 days ago
  • Housing crisis hurting export growth
    If Steven Joyce wants to revive his failing export growth target he needs to make sure the Government gets to grips with the housing crisis, says David Parker, Labour’s Export Growth and Trade spokesperson. “Our exporters are struggling to compete… ...
    5 days ago
  • Gallipoli’s lesson: never forget, never repeat
     A special monument to one of our greatest war heroes should be a priority for the new Pukeahu National War Memorial Park, Labour Leader Andrew Little says.  “This will honour the spirit of Lieutenant Colonel William Malone, who led 760… ...
    5 days ago
  • Minister for who? Women, or Team Key?
    Louise Upston yesterday broke her silence on John Key’s repeated unwanted touching of a woman who works at his local café, to jump to the defence of her Boss. Upston repeated Key’s apology but, according to media reports “she refused… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    5 days ago
  • Taxpayer bucks backing US billionaire
    Kiwis will be horrified to know they are backing a Team Oracle subsidiary owned by a US billionaire, Labour’s Sports and Recreation spokesperson Trevor Mallard says. It has been revealed today that a Warkworth boat building company, which is wholly… ...
    6 days ago
  • English’s sins of omission: ‘Nothing left to be done’ on housing
    When Bill English said ‘there is nothing left to be done’ on the Auckland housing crisis he had overlooked a few things – a few things, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says.  “He’s right if you ignore: ...
    6 days ago
  • Climate change now hurts Kiwis
    Kiwis have twice been given timely and grave warnings on how climate change will hit them in their hip pockets this week, says Climate Change spokesperson Megan Woods.  “The first is the closure of the Sanford mussel plant and the… ...
    6 days ago
  • Clean, green and chocolate!
    Like many people I absolutely love chocolate! But until recently I hadn’t given much thought to how it was grown and produced. Fair trade and ethical food production are core Green Party principles, so yesterday Steffan Browning and I were… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    6 days ago
  • National admits loan shark law not up to it
    National has admitted new laws to crack down on loan sharks, truck shops and dodgy credit merchants aren’t up to the task of protecting vulnerable consumers, Labour’s Commerce spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. “Paul Goldsmith has acknowledged the laws might just… ...
    6 days ago
  • Power and the Prime Minister
    I’d like to acknowledge the young woman* who has publically told her story. It was a very brave thing to do. She kept her story very simple and focussed on her experience of what happened. It told of unwanted attention… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    6 days ago
  • Extra holiday offers time to reflect
    The Mondayisation of Anzac Day provides New Zealanders with an opportunity to spend more time with their families and their communities, Dunedin North Labour MP David Clark says. “This is the first time legislation I introduced, to have Anzac and… ...
    6 days ago
  • More angst and anguish for red zone locals
    Local residents will be bitterly disappointed by the Government’s cherry picking of the Supreme Court’s decision regarding compensation for red zoned property owners, Labour Canterbury Earthquake Recovery spokesperson and Port Hills MP Ruth Dyson says. “Home owners have taken all… ...
    7 days ago
  • Australia shows why we need a sovereign wealth fund now
    Australia has not managed its great mining boom well, says HSBC’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Paul Bloxham. When times are good, governments need to save for the bad times that will inevitably follow, and this can be… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    7 days ago
  • Pure Water- pure rip off
    New Zealanders’ rights to fresh water must be protected before commercial allocations are given, but the Government is allowing resources to be taken, says Kelvin Davis MP for Te Tai Tokerau.  “The Government needs to resolve the issue of water… ...
    7 days ago
  • Cabinet paper reveals weak case for Iraq deployment
    A heavily redacted copy of a Cabinet paper on New Zealand’s military deployment to Iraq reveals how weak the case is for military involvement in that conflict, says Labour’s Defence spokesperson Phil Goff.  The paper warns that given the failure… ...
    7 days ago
  • Malaysia’s booty is Kiwis’ lost homeownership dream
    It’s unsurprising the Auckland property market is so overheated when Malaysians are being told they can live large on Kiwi’s hard-earned rent money, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “A Malaysian property website lists nearly 4000 New Zealand houses and… ...
    7 days ago
  • Ministry’s food safety resources slashed to the bone
    The Ministry for Primary Industries’ failure to monitor toxic and illegal chemicals in red meat is a dereliction of duty, Labour’s Primary Industries and Food Safety spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “MPI compliance officer Gary Orr today admitted National’s much-vaunted super… ...
    7 days ago
  • Ministry must protect organic food industry
    The Ministry for Primary Industries must take urgent action to protect New Zealand’s $150 million organic food and beverage industry by establishing a certification regime, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Despite working with Organics Aotearoa on the issue… ...
    1 week ago
  • Tony Abbott, indigenous rights, and refugees
    This week, Tony Abbott has visited Aotearoa New Zealand, bringing with him his racist policies against indigenous Australians and his appalling record on refugee detention camps. Abbott has launched a policy “to close” remote aboriginal communities, which is about as… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    1 week ago
  • PM’s housing outburst bizarre
    Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford has described the Prime Minister’s latest comments on the Auckland housing crisis as bizarre. “John Key is deep in denial. He must be one of the only people left who are not concerned about the risk… ...
    1 week ago
  • Deflation: Another economic headache linked to housing crisis
    National’s housing crisis is causing even further damage with the second consecutive quarter of deflation a genuine concern the Reserve Bank can do little about, as it focusses on Auckland house prices, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “This is… ...
    1 week ago
  • Pot calling the kettle black over fossil fuel subsidies.
    Over the weekend alongside nine other countries the New Zealand Government has endorsed a statement that supports eliminating inefficient subsidies on fossil fuels. Fossil fuel subsidies are a big driver of increasing emissions. Good on the Government for working internationally… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    1 week ago
  • At last – a common sense plan for Christchurch
    The Common Sense Plan for Christchurch released by The People’s Choice today is a welcome relief from the shallow debate about rates rises versus asset sales, Labour’s Christchurch MPs say. "Local residents – who have spent weeks trawling through the… ...
    1 week ago
  • National must lead by example on climate change
    The National Government must meet its own climate change obligations before it preaches to the rest of the world, Labour's Climate Change spokesperson Megan Woods says. "Calls today by Climate Change Minister Tim Groser for an end to fossil fuel… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Biosecurity rethink a long time
    The Government has opened New Zealand’s borders to biosecurity risks and its rethinking of bag screening at airports is an admission of failure, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. Nathan Guy today announced a review of biosecurity systems in… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Chinese rail workers must be paid minimum wage
    KiwiRail must immediately stop further Chinese engineers from working here until they can guarantee they are being paid the New Zealand minimum wage, Labour’s MP for Hutt South Trevor Mallard says. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment today released… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Better consultation needed on Christchurch asset sales
    The Christchurch City Council (CCC) should be promoting wide and genuine public consultation on its draft ten year budget and plan given the serious implications for the city’s future of its proposed asset sales, outlined in the plan. Instead, it… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • ‘Healthy Families’ a good start but not enough to tackle obesity relate...
    Today the Government is making a the meal out of the launch of its ‘Healthy Families’ package to promote ‘healthier decisions’ and ‘changing mindsets’ over nutrition, physical activity and obesity. Great! The programme is based on a successful model from… ...
    GreensBy Kevin Hague MP
    2 weeks ago
  • ‘Healthy Families’ a good start but not enough to tackle obesity relate...
    Today the Government is making a the meal out of the launch of its ‘Healthy Families’ package to promote ‘healthier decisions’ and ‘changing mindsets’ over nutrition, physical activity and obesity. Great! The programme is based on a successful model from… ...
    GreensBy Kevin Hague MP
    2 weeks ago
  • No more sweet talk on obesity
    The Government should be looking at broader measures to combat obesity rather than re-hashing pre-announced initiatives, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says.  “While it is encouraging to see the Government finally waking from its slumber and restoring a focus on… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government two-faced on zero-hour contracts
    The Government should look to ban zero-hour contracts in its own back yard before getting too high and mighty about other employers using them, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “Information collated by Labour shows at least three district health… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Scrutiny of battlefield deaths should continue
    As New Zealand troops head to Iraq under a shroud of secrecy, the Government is pushing ahead with legislation to remove independent scrutiny of incidents where Kiwi soldiers are killed in hostile action overseas, Labour’s Defence spokesperson Phil Goff says.… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Damp-free homes a right for tenants
    Labour is urging tenants to use a little known rule which gives them the right to live in damp-free rental homes. Otago University researchers have today highlighted the Housing Improvement Regulations 1947 as a way tenants can force landlords to… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National must take action on speculators
    The Government must take action on property speculators who are damaging the housing market and shutting families and young people out of the home ownership dream, Labour Leader Andrew Little says.  “There are a number of options the Government could… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Milk price halves: A $7b economic black hole
    Global milk prices have halved since the peak last year, creating an economic black hole of almost $7 billion that will suck in regions reliant on dairy, crucial industries and the Government’s books, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Kitchen plan set to swallow up health boards’ funds
    The financial impacts of implementing a proposal to outsource hospital food, forced on them by a crown-owned company which is now facing an auditor-general’s inquiry, are being felt by district health boards across the country, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Reserve Bank scathing of Government
    The Reserve Bank’s most scathing critique to date of National’s inability to handle the housing crisis shows the Bank is sick of having to pick up the pieces, Labour Leader Andrew Little says.  “John Key continues to deny there is… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Time for McDonald’s to upsize work hours
    Labour is calling on McDonald’s to have more respect for their workers and offer them more guaranteed work hours. McDonald’s is proposing to guarantee its workers 80 per cent of their rostered hours, Labour’s spokesperson for Labour Issues Iain Lees-Galloway… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Brownlee misses the boat on asbestos
    Gerry Brownlee has once again missed an opportunity to improve the lives of Cantabrians post-earthquakes, Labour’s Canterbury Earthquake Recovery spokesperson Ruth Dyson says. A new report from the Royal Society of New Zealand and the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Adviser,… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government must come clean on troop deployment and protections
    New Zealanders deserve more than to hear about their troops’ deployment overseas from Australian media, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “News from Australia that Kiwi troops are on their way to Iraq this week is another example of the culture… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Cancer prevention calls gain momentum
    Research showing bowel cancer treatment sucks up more public health dollars than other cancers once again highlights the need for a national screening programme, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. A study by Otago University, which found colon cancer is… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Burger King shows zero-hour contracts not needed
    The abandonment of zero-hour contracts by Burger King is further evidence good employers do not need to use them, Labour’s spokesperson on Labour Issues Iain Lees-Galloway says. "Congratulations to the Unite Union and Burger King for settling an employment agreement… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Kiwis deserve more than reheats
    The Government looks set to rely on regurgitated announcements for this year’s Budget if today’s speech is anything to go by, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “National has been building up to this Budget for seven long years, promising a… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Landlords not cashing in on insulation schemes
    The fact so few landlords have taken up the generous taxpayer subsidy for retrofitting shows it is time to legislate minimum standards, says Labour’s Associate Housing spokesperson Poto Williams. “Many landlords aren’t using Government insulation schemes because they don’t want… ...
    2 weeks ago

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