Roy Morgan shocker

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, July 31st, 2013 - 342 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

Latest Roy Morgan is out and it’s a shocker. Labour has dropped below 30% and the Nats are now over 50%.

Dropping into the 20’s is a very bad sign for Labour and will no doubt renew speculation about David Shearer’s leadership just at a time when the Government should be on the ropes.

It’s just one poll, of course, but then so are all the others…

Full results:

National 51% (up 4%)
Labour 29% (down 2%)
Greens 10% (down 1.5%)
New Zealand First 4% (down 0.5%)
Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%)
ACT NZ 1% (up 0.5%)
Mana Party 1% (down 0.5%)
Conservatives 1.5% (unchanged)
United Future 0% (unchanged)
Others 1% (up 0.5%)

342 comments on “Roy Morgan shocker ”

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  1. Paul 1
    31 July 2013 at 8:56 pm

    If there’s a bounce after this because of the new housing policy, then that’s proof the electorate want to see bolder policy from the Labour Party. Conclusion for LP – roll out more radical policy measures.
    If there’s no bounce, then Shearer must go.
    Whatever happens, it is clear that Labour playing National lite just is not a plausible policy.

    • Granted 1.1
      1 August 2013 at 9:04 am

      I don’t comment here often – I usually support national. Your comment about more radical policies is what keeps me from changing who I vote for.

      Its the radical element that puts me off Labour/Greens. Some of what the Greens can sort of make sense but needs to be watered down as their assumptions always appear to be flawed.

      I dislike the announced policy to nationalise power and dislike the latest housing policy announcement of Labour – what proportion of no-residents have purchased what share of houses sold in last three years?

      I am not stating that National are doing a great job, but I find that the policy announcements of Labour/Greens just puts me off.

  2. Colonial Viper 2
    31 July 2013 at 8:57 pm

    Let’s wait just a bit longer…the tide will come in for Labour…surely.

  3. Roflcopter 3
    31 July 2013 at 8:58 pm

    Labour – down
    Greens – down
    Mana – down
    NZF – down

    It’s not a Labour-only problem, NZ is fed up with the antics of the left overall… but the left won’t change, just blame everyone but themselves.

    • Paul 3.1
      31 July 2013 at 8:58 pm

      Antics?

    • Paul 3.2
      31 July 2013 at 9:11 pm

      Sense all the other left parties are being dragged down by association.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.3
      31 July 2013 at 10:06 pm

      The only people I see blaming everyone else happens to be the political-right. Every time that something goes wrong, National say that it’s Labour’s fault. Every time that something goes right National claim it as their own even when it was Labour or another party that initiated it.

      • Paul 3.3.1
        31 July 2013 at 10:12 pm

        Far too easy to push around.

      • TheContrarian 3.3.2
        31 July 2013 at 10:25 pm

        “Every time that something goes wrong, Political party of the day say that it’s the other party’s fault. Every time that something goes right Political party of the day claim it as their own even when it was the other party or another party that initiated it.’

        FIFY

        • Draco T Bastard 3.3.2.1
          31 July 2013 at 11:18 pm

          Nope.

        • You_Fool 3.3.2.2
          1 August 2013 at 9:50 am

          “Every time that something goes wrong, Government party of the day say that it’s the oppositions fault. Every time that something goes right Government party of the day claim it as their own even when it was another party that initiated it. When in opposition left-leaning parties blame themselves and the government when things go wrong, right wing parties blame the government.”

          FIFY

    • halfcrown 3.4
      1 August 2013 at 8:19 am

      What antics?

  4. Sanctuary 4
    31 July 2013 at 8:58 pm

    I would hate to think what Labour’s percentage of support amongst all voters would be if you factored in the undecided and will not vote. 15%?

  5. Pete 5
    31 July 2013 at 9:00 pm

    The man ban debacle filtering through? The past few days have been good for Labour, but I’m forming the view they don’t have enough in the tank for next year. Not with Shearer at the wheel, anyway.

    • Vagabundo 5.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:07 pm

      Looking at the polling period, it’s likely the man ban debacle plus the shit stirred by Garner’s attempt at manufacturing a coup. The polling period ended this past Sunday, so anything since (i.e. the latest GCSB-related blow up) would have had little effect. There was no way Labour’s numbers wouldn’t take a hit after a wretched couple of weeks. Losing 2% isn’t as bad as I was expecting, but it’s still pretty dire.

      Assuming the next 10 days or so continue like the last couple for the government and opposition, Labour should be back in the low-to-mid 30s and National down to the 40s, but in all likelihood, this has probably sealed Shearer’s fate as Labour leader.

    • Anne 5.2
      1 August 2013 at 9:48 am

      The man ban debacle filtering through?

      I should think so. I hope those people in the Labour Party who were pushing for the remit might start to understand how naive they were. Everybody agreed with the sentiment but what a stupid way to go about achieving it… especially when the party is almost there anyway.

      • stargazer 5.2.1
        1 August 2013 at 11:37 am

        or maybe it was actually the way the parliamentary leadership & some of our MPs dealt with the issue that was more destructive than the remit itself? perhaps it’s time for MPs to understand that when they attack their own membership, it looks pretty bad all round.

        • Anne 5.2.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 5:56 pm

          Agree stargazer there’s much truth in what you say, but on this occasion most of the fault lies with the originators of the remit. They were naive. There’s nothing else you can say about them.
          Remember it was the discovery of the remit itself that attracted all the public derision, not the party leader’s response to it.

          • QoT 5.2.1.1.1
            1 August 2013 at 8:21 pm

            Remember it was the discovery of the remit itself that attracted all the public derision, not the party leader’s response to it.

            Yes, that was definitely the problem, not Shearer’s complete inability to respond quickly, utter a complete sentence, control the message or discipline his caucus before they all started blabbing to the nearest microphone. 🙄

  6. Brett Dale 6
    31 July 2013 at 9:02 pm

    So the trend is bad/really bad/terrible?

  7. Private Baldric 7
    31 July 2013 at 9:04 pm

    I blame Greg Presland !

    • Colonial Viper 7.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:08 pm

      Clearly, it’s the ordinary Labour membership and assorted low level drones causing this low performance.

    • mickysavage 7.2
      31 July 2013 at 9:18 pm

      Gee Cameron can’t you train and send over anyone better than this?

    • tc 7.3
      1 August 2013 at 8:52 am

      Who is he ? Can’t recall an MP /senior adviser to the old guard with any such name.

  8. Curtis 8
    31 July 2013 at 9:05 pm

    It’s so frustrating every time the government has pressure put on them something else comes out to harm Labour.

  9. Fair call 9
    31 July 2013 at 9:07 pm

    [deleted]

    [lprent: Already banned and now subject to an extra 8 weeks ]

    • Tamati 9.1
      31 July 2013 at 11:08 pm

      The family vote ?

      Anyone who has a problem with GR being gay would probably never vote Labour who ever the Leader is.

      • Chooky 9.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 11:58 pm

        @ Tamati

        Bring back Georgina Beyer…..If Cunliffe cant be leader…I vote for Georgina Beyer (..saw her again on TV tonight in the Helen Clark doco)…..Georgina was extremely popular with the electorate. She is very good looking, well dressed and charismatic and family friendly ….She is for the little people and she says it like it is!….also she is an interesting and dynamic woman….a big plus as 50% of the electorate are women!

        Grant Robertson unfortunately ( imo) has the sex appeal of a sturgeon fish….. Just as Don Brash had the sex appeal of a salamander.

        • Rhinocrates 9.1.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 12:08 am

          There are people who have fetishes for sturgeons who are probably otherwise perfectly intelligent, reasonable and likeable.

          Personally, I think that Mantis Shrimps are quite fascinating, though I am not sexually attracted to them.

          I’ve never thought about salamanders or sturgeons, and I must confess, I certainly DO NOT want to think about Robertson.

          Ever.

          Not under any circumstances.

          Not ever.

          Not even if someone positively compared him to oatmeal.

          Or leeks.

          Just don’t go there.

          No.

          NO!

          On the other hand, a sack of potatoes could look rather attractive…

          • Chooky 9.1.1.1.1
            1 August 2013 at 8:36 am

            @ Rhinocrates …..Squawk ! squawk!

            We should have a fish picture exhibition….match the fish with the politician

  10. BLiP 10
    31 July 2013 at 9:09 pm

    ‘

    Really, New Zealand? Really?

    • Brett Dale 10.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:11 pm

      Yes, really. seriously really.

      • Colonial Viper 10.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:14 pm

        Dammit BD. It seems most of NZ don’t see Labour as representing their ideals, values or interests.

        Perhaps if we follow up an earlier suggestion from today and have Labour lead on developing a gender-neutral term for “landlord”, things would improve.

      • Paul 10.1.2
        31 July 2013 at 9:16 pm

        Hunter Thompson
        “In a democracy, people usually get the kind of government they deserve, and they deserve what they get.”

        • muzza 10.1.2.1
          31 July 2013 at 9:42 pm

          Problem is Paul, f these numbers are reflective, and even if they’re not, large numbers of NZ voters see themselves as arrogant, lying, money driven, selfish, traitors!

          Wonderful!

          • Paul 10.1.2.1.1
            31 July 2013 at 9:44 pm

            Quite depressing if you’re right.
            The neo-liberal rot will have really set in.

            • geoff 10.1.2.1.1.1
              31 July 2013 at 11:06 pm

              The rot set in about 30 years ago. People wont work together until things have become much worse. That’s not to say things don’t have the potential to get a lot worse fairly quickly though.

        • UglyTruth 10.1.2.2
          1 August 2013 at 3:02 am

          In human society, people usually believe what the state tells them about about the nature of government.

  11. marty mars 11
    31 July 2013 at 9:10 pm

    Shane Jones will be gnawing his own hoof off to get the top spot – I expect a big play from him soon, and God help us all if he gets there.

    • Pete 11.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:40 pm

      Do I really live in a country where it’s possible the next Prime Minister is Shane Jones or Judith Collins? Please, say it ain’t so.

      • Rhinocrates 11.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 10:29 pm

        Havelock Vetenari, Gaius Baltar… are these better names?

        • Pete 11.1.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 11:08 pm

          Actually I developed some sympathy for both characters as BSG and Discworld progressed. I think a better comparison would be Edmund Blackadder (from the first series) and Davros.

        • Colonial Viper 11.1.1.2
          31 July 2013 at 11:12 pm

          Baltar found himself in the end. Yes he was short sighted and self centred but on New Caprica he did what he could, even if it was not much. Did he like the trappings of privilege and position? Yep. But he had a final, important role to play at the battle of the Cylon Colony, and he followed through with it.

          • Rhinocrates 11.1.1.2.1
            1 August 2013 at 12:17 am

            Yep, true. Blackadder was certainly competent at least, Vetenari is a genius, Baltar was thoughtful in the end. Ah, Davros, indeed, a clever and compassionate fellow.

            Are they fictitious characters? Sure they are, but are any of our politicians anything but fictitious characters?

    • Chooky 11.2
      1 August 2013 at 9:27 am

      @ marty mars +1

    • Don't worry be happy 11.3
      1 August 2013 at 10:19 am

      NOooooo. Not the ‘non’gelding… Shane “Stallion” Jones!

  12. Jenny 12
    31 July 2013 at 9:13 pm

    This is hard to believe.

    • Colonial Viper 12.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:15 pm

      may be partly because Labour is not taking a principled stance on climate change and GHG emissions.

      • Te Reo Putake 12.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:29 pm

        Very droll.

      • Jenny 12.1.2
        31 July 2013 at 9:36 pm

        (It is hard to know whether you are joking or not CV). Of course. If Labour did do a Churchill, and screamed like a fire siren about this approaching existential danger that would certainly capture the attention of the electorate.

        • mickysavage 12.1.2.1
          31 July 2013 at 10:13 pm

          I think that responsible political leaders ought to make climate change one of if not the most major items of business. Our grandchildren depend on it …

  13. Rhinocrates 13
    31 July 2013 at 9:16 pm

    Well, for what it’s worth, my own very biased and peculiar view is that while polls show that people love Labour policy and would probably love Green policy, they still perceive the Greens as fringe and it will take time to change that and they perceive Labour as incompetent.

    As a probably Green voter, I’d like them to poll higher, but I don’t have any illusions and know that it takes years to change brand perceptions despite what marketing shysters might say, but Labour for a long time has been perceived as offering neither a real alternative nor the competence to deliver it… now yes, I do believe that their policy is improving, and is good, but seriously, does anyone believe that Shearer could deliver it, that the rabble composing the likely cabinet of cronies could be a government?

    Really, Mallard as Speaker? Mumblefuck as PM, fossilised Rogernomes like Goff and King as senior ministers, victims of terminal testosterone poisoning like Jones, and God help us, Tamihere, yuppies like that snot Hipkins in the inner circle… and the best talent on the back benches precisely because they have ideas, ability, vision?

    It may be reassuring to talk about “sleepy hobbits”, but I feel that New Zealanders do at least know incompetence when they see it.

    The good news is that the next election is for the government to lose… but there has to be a government in waiting, and so far there isn’t.

    • Paul 13.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:21 pm

      51% of the country benefiting from this government…I just don’t believe it.
      I agree the Labour Party appear incompetent, yet The Greens are not incompetent and they seemingly have lost votes to the National Party too!
      NZErs must just believe Key’s spin…..

      • Lanthanide 13.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:29 pm

        Firstly, 51% of people intending to vote, not 51% of the people.

        Secondly, people often vote for parties that don’t represent their best interests.

      • Rhinocrates 13.1.2
        31 July 2013 at 9:35 pm

        The problem the Greens have is one of brand perception. Sorry if that seems arcane, but I used to be an academic teaching people who went into marketing and advertising, and dare I say it, got good positions and awards for it.

        One, people like to associate themselves with winners or perceived winners. The Greens are not likely to be a majority. That in itself counts against them. I’d like the Greens to score higher, but I’m not surprised that they don’t. They’re still seen as a secondary party, no matter how good (I think) their leadership is.

        Two, it can take a day to destroy a brand, but years to rebuild it. Jaguar, a car manufacturer, scores very well in customer satisfaction surveys because they saw how badly they were doing in the 80s and made serious efforts to improve quality through the 90s and last decade, but their sales are improving only slowly. “Once bitten, twice shy” is a very real rule.

        Three, competence and coherence. I’ve said enough on that.

        Confidence matters and people remember.

        Social media are certainly going to be, are a major factor now, but brain-dead apparatchiks like Robertson will hinder any advances in that area.

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.2.1
          31 July 2013 at 9:39 pm

          Social media are certainly going to be, are a major factor now, but brain-dead apparatchiks like Robertson and Curran will hinder any advances in that area.

          Come now my good Mr ‘Crates, let’s give credit where credit is due.

        • karol 13.1.2.2
          31 July 2013 at 9:43 pm

          One, people like to associate themselves with winners or perceived winners.

          Well, that must be aided by using marketing methods, treating politics as a game, and Political Parties as competing brands – all reinforced by using tools of marketing like focus groups and constant polls.

          • Rhinocrates 13.1.2.2.1
            31 July 2013 at 10:14 pm

            Unfortunately, that seems to be the case… politics is not so much a case of “rational choice” as idiotic economists would have it (though “idiotic economist” is a tautology) but brand associations. A significant number of people vote according to the tribe they want to be seen to be associated with. Please convince me that I’m wrong!

            • Colonial Viper 13.1.2.2.1.1
              31 July 2013 at 10:18 pm

              NZers are practical people. They will choose between political parties that they think capable of governing the nation.

              • Arfamo …
                31 July 2013 at 10:39 pm

                Yes but a great many of them will probably form their view of who’s capable of governing the nation from the info put out by the MSM. Who are not interested in informing so much as entertaining audiences.

                • Colonial Viper …
                  31 July 2013 at 11:14 pm

                  So you are saying that there are real, viable, credible alternatives to a National government, its just that the MSM aren’t reporting on them?

                  • Arfamo …
                    31 July 2013 at 11:30 pm

                    No. I’m saying where Labour does announce policy and it gets negatively framed by the MSM the public gets a negative picture first. I heard or read somewhere once that initial impressions, good or bad, are often so strongly imprinted it takes four times as much contrary input to change that initial reaction.

                    If that’s the case Labour’s got a helluva job trying to convince people their policies are sound, and that their current leader’s up to the leadership job. It might also explain why Key’s still so teflon-coated in the polls.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      1 August 2013 at 8:47 pm

                      Well you’ve identified the problem there. “Launching a policy” is absolutely the wrong description for the activity and partly explains why Labour keeps getting fucked.

                      The Launch of the policy is step one of about a 6 step process. Labour doesn’t do any of the other steps.

                    • Arfamo …
                      1 August 2013 at 10:56 pm

                      I haven’t been around here long enough to know if you’ve set those out somewhere else, CV. What are full 6 steps then?

            • karol 13.1.2.2.1.2
              1 August 2013 at 7:13 am

              Unfortunately, that seems to be the case… politics is not so much a case of “rational choice” as idiotic economists would have it (though “idiotic economist” is a tautology) but brand associations. A significant number of people vote according to the tribe they want to be seen to be associated with. Please convince me that I’m wrong!

              This is the way it has become. But it could b, and has been, different. By continuing talking about politics using “neoliberal” terms, you are reinforcing the status quo.

            • Anne 13.1.2.2.1.3
              1 August 2013 at 10:13 am

              A significant number of people vote according to the tribe they want to be seen to be associated with. Please convince me that I’m wrong!

              Can’t. Because you’re right.

              The majority kid themselves they are higher on the social ladder than they really are. To convince themselves it is true they follow the flavours of the day – the home location, food, car choices, holiday choices and who they want people to associate them with. I live in a part of Auckland where I see instances of it every day. Pakeha yuppies lording it over their supposed inferiors (check-our operators) or chatting mindlessly about trivial concerns over coffee with other yuppies. They greet each other on the streets or beaches as though they’re bosom pals from way back… you know they’re not. They’re pathetic – a laugh a minute but they don’t know it.

              • karol …
                1 August 2013 at 8:31 pm

                I don’t know many such people.

              • Colonial Viper …
                1 August 2013 at 8:48 pm

                Yep. The bigger the city the bigger the falsehoods in these relationships. Smaller cities and towns, especially in the provinces, is where it gets “real”.

                You’re not going to be mean to the check-out kid simply because you know that his Mum coaches the sports team at the school that your sons go to.

                • karol …
                  1 August 2013 at 8:53 pm

                  Oh. There’s plenty of “real” people in cities who don’t talk down to check out operators. Might partly depend on which part of the city.

                  Actually, at some supermarkets out west in Auckland, lines can be held up while customers and checkout operators get caught up in chat.

        • Chooky 13.1.2.3
          1 August 2013 at 9:44 am

          @ Rhinocrates …very interesting….I am not trained in this area but I am fascinated by it….anyone who has connections with young people in their teens and twenties knows how much these young barbarians are influenced by branding and media perception …It is their world!….and increasingly ours( although some wont admit it and prefer the rarified air of intellectual abstraction)…..Political Parties can not afford to ignore it! ( Actually branding and media perception was always there but now it is in hyper reality focus)

          I actually think the Labour Party should be Directed by an Expert ( sympathetic to the Labour movement of course…such as yourself) as regards their best leader…..otherwise it is dinosaurs blundering around in the dark stomping on each others toes, biting each others tails and trying to devour their best contender.

    • BM 13.2
      31 July 2013 at 9:22 pm

      The only way the greens will poll higher is if they become more central and work with National as well as labour, until that happens they’ll forever be viewed as labours more looneyer relation.

      Never happen unfortunately so they’ll always poll around 10%.

      • Paul 13.2.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:26 pm

        They were 15%.
        They’re being dragged down by Labour’s incompetence.

        • BM 13.2.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 9:29 pm

          Greens equal more extreme labour so the drop in the polls is hardly surprising.

          • Paul 13.2.1.1.1
            31 July 2013 at 9:31 pm

            The very opposite is the case.
            If Labour adopted genuine left wing policies that represented their vote, they would gain many more votes.

            • Colonial Viper 13.2.1.1.1.1
              31 July 2013 at 9:44 pm

              +1

            • Jackal 13.2.1.1.1.2
              31 July 2013 at 10:02 pm

              Labour has just arguably adopted two very significant Green party policies, so lets see if that theory is correct and is reflected in future polling…I certainly hope that’s the case.

              • Colonial Viper …
                31 July 2013 at 10:03 pm

                Labour being derivative of the Greens may indeed provide a boost.

              • Paul …
                31 July 2013 at 10:08 pm

                Yes but people don’t see their heart in any policies…after the lukewarm efforts over asset sales then the power policy.
                There isn’t any conviction, no taking it to the Tories.
                Just a passive, ineffective, apologetic excuse for an opposition.
                A Vision….a passion…a plan…
                Can be done.

              • Mary …
                31 July 2013 at 10:10 pm

                And the spy stuff has been exceptionally bad for Key over the past two days – maybe even enough to cause him a modicum of damage.

              • Struth …
                31 July 2013 at 10:14 pm

                Problem is Labour fuck them up.

                • IrishBill …
                  31 July 2013 at 10:40 pm

                  Here’s the latest Labour release on the GCSB: http://www.labour.org.nz/news/pm-clueless-about-gcsb%E2%80%99s-snooping-for-henry-inquiry

                  In just a handful of paragraphs it manages to move from the claim Key is clueless to the claim he’s not only not clueless but is engaged in a Machiavellian plot to hide the truth. It’s not just not in line with any broader messaging (because there isn’t any), it doesn’t even have internal logical consistency. It’s the kind of thing I would use to illustrate what not to do when teaching basic media writing. And it’s gone out in David Shearer’s name on the most important political issue of the day.

                  It’s that kind of incompetence day after day after day that has got us to this point and I can’t see it getting any better. It’s not a matter of policy (left or right) that has determined Labour’s decline – it is simply the fact that nobody in there has any idea what they are doing.

                  • weka …
                    31 July 2013 at 10:48 pm

                    +100000000

                    It’s unbelievable really. I’ve been wondering how this affects Labour party members and how they cope.. Cognitive dissonance? Learned helplessness? Stockholm Syndrome?

                    • IrishBill …
                      31 July 2013 at 10:53 pm

                      I’ve been involved in Labour for a long time – you’ve got to take the long view.

                    • KJT …
                      1 August 2013 at 4:58 am

                      Entirely agree with you Xtasy.

                      The welfare “reforms” are just the start of an evil attack on the sick, old and unemployed.

                      Unfortunately, Labour, instead of countering the constant memes from the right wing, who are happy for people to live on the streets in cardboard boxes, like Calcutta, and in a rubbish tip, like Manila, just so they can pay a few dollars a week less taxes, or pay “consultants”, and managers, thousands, are joining in with neo-liberal attacks on welfare, such as raising the retirement age.

                      At least two of the teenagers, and now young adults, I have helped, mostly by letting them “crash” in our basement and sometimes feeding them, are mentally ill, for real, after years of being shuttled between uncaring WINZ people, bullshit courses supposed to help them into work and unscrupulous employers. (Who get subsidies for giving them jobs, then find an excuse to sack, or cause them to resign, usually by reducing hours to less than they need to live, when the subsidy runs out, so they can get another subsidised worker).

                      Don’t even get me started on the “industry” of “helping” the unemployed.

                      You can imagine what all that does to the self esteem and the mental state of a young person just starting out. Now it will be much worse.

                      Labour needs to get a spine, cut out the dead wood, and take away ownership of the dialogue from RWNJ’s.

                  • Colonial Viper …
                    31 July 2013 at 11:18 pm

                    Yep. It’s trying to play “gotcha” instead of expressing the practical application of consistent values and principles.

                  • Chooky …
                    1 August 2013 at 4:23 pm

                    +1 Irish Bill….why don’t they take specialist advice on their media and message presentation?….this could be where the Nacts beat the Left hands down, certainly the Labour Party

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      1 August 2013 at 8:51 pm

                      They have people like Mold and Fa’Foi and Robins and Curran, etc for that.

          • McGrath 13.2.1.1.2
            31 July 2013 at 10:23 pm

            I agree with BM. New Zealanders like to think of themselves as pro-enviroment but not to the level of zeal that the Green Party represents. It’s this zealotry that turns off the average-voter.

            • Rhinocrates 13.2.1.1.2.1
              31 July 2013 at 10:27 pm

              Probably a good point – we all want to declare our virtues, but actually practising them? Well, we’d like to, but…

              • McGrath …
                31 July 2013 at 10:34 pm

                I’d like to save the whales, but I draw the line at sailing a boat and ramming it into Japanese whaling vessels… The Greens represent the more extreme fringe of environmentalism. They’d do better if they were less “religious” (for lack of a better term).

                • weka …
                  31 July 2013 at 10:50 pm

                  except we all do things routinely now that ‘radical’ environmentalists got labelled fringe for talking about ten, twenty, thirty years ago. What you are denigrating as fringe, is the cutting edge that will become the norm.

                  btw, you don’t have to protest whaling at sea. That’s what Greenpeace are for, you can just dontate to them instead. See how easy it is to support the right thing when you can’t do it yourself?

                  • gobsmacked …
                    1 August 2013 at 12:32 am

                    except we all do things routinely now that ‘radical’ environmentalists got labelled fringe for talking about ten, twenty, thirty years ago. What you are denigrating as fringe, is the cutting edge that will become the norm.

                    This is so true. Those crazy greenies want to … get lead out of petrol, recycle our bottles, build public transport, clean up our beaches, tell customers what’s in our food, cut the smog, and so on.

                    And every “mainstream” conservative agrees with them – now. But not then.

                    If we took a time machine to the 1970’s we would all be “Greenies”.

            • weka 13.2.1.1.2.2
              31 July 2013 at 10:34 pm

              One of the major roles of the GP is to shift the forefront of environmental concern to the middle. They’re pretty successful at this, along with the NGO, activist and green business sectors. It’s about the long haul.

    • QoT 13.3
      1 August 2013 at 8:23 pm

      I say again unto thee: fuck yes to all that.

  14. Brett Dale 14
    31 July 2013 at 9:19 pm

    Most people are centered, labour has gone down, because they’re moving too far too the left.

    • karol 14.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:21 pm

      I love a bit of humour in the evening.

      Thanks.

    • Paul 14.2
      31 July 2013 at 9:24 pm

      Of course Shearer has really dragged the Labour Party to the left.
      Spin on…

      • Jimmie 14.2.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:43 pm

        Perhaps more of a case that Shearer comes across as someone who is centrist or leaning to the right but who is coming out with policy that is veering to the left. (NZ Power, House buying bans etc.)

        This is a natural dichotomy that doesn’t resonate well with the electorate.

        Say what you like about Key but what is apparent that since he has led the National Party he has pushed moderate policy (Compared to Brash) and actually comes across as believing in what he is pushing.

        Through the turmoil of the Christchurch earthquake and its aftermath the electorate pretty much trusts Key – warts and all.

        To beat him in 2014 Labour needs a leader (and a team – but that may be too much to ask) who believes what he/she pushes. (Genuine) I dunno who that could be – Cunliffe perhaps?

        22% is getting closer

        • Paul 14.2.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 9:46 pm

          Those are big warts….

        • framu 14.2.1.2
          1 August 2013 at 12:43 pm

          “and actually comes across as believing in what he is pushing.”

          really?! – to me he seems the most insincere person ive ever seen. The only time i think hes being honest is when he gets that “im going to fu*kin kill you” look

          And trust?! – even my life long national voting boss thinks hes full of crap and has got to go.

          but yeah – how that jibes with the polls i dont know. It is a constant head scratcher for me.

          – but i do like the suffix “compared to brash”, so many uses

    • Mary 14.3
      31 July 2013 at 10:13 pm

      Can I send this in to The Listener for Life in NZ? It’s a real beauty.

  15. karol 15
    31 July 2013 at 9:25 pm

    A lot of focus on what 824 Kiwis said, when questioned by landline or mobile phone.

    • Paul 15.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:27 pm

      “The poll questioned 824 eligible voters on either land line or mobile phone from July 15 to 28”
      What events were happening in this time to influence the 824?

      • Paul 15.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:29 pm

        “Even if you are a minority of one, the truth is the truth.”
        Mahatma Gandhi

        • Rhinocrates 15.1.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 9:43 pm

          Great, let’s see that win an election.

          • Paul 15.1.1.1.1
            31 July 2013 at 9:48 pm

            My point (badly made, I concede) was that the last thing the Labour Party should be doing is moving to the right after polls like this. They should be sticking to their principles.
            The RWNJs want the Labour Party to panic to the right.

            • Rhinocrates 15.1.1.1.1.1
              31 July 2013 at 9:56 pm

              I agree absolutely.

            • Rhinocrates 15.1.1.1.1.2
              31 July 2013 at 10:07 pm

              I’m sorry if that was offensive, then.

              • Paul …
                31 July 2013 at 10:10 pm

                Not at all.
                I am trying to stress the need to hold to one’s beliefs and convictions.
                Last time the right wing terrified the Labour leadership into backing up on changes after power announcement.

  16. Richard 16
    31 July 2013 at 9:26 pm

    Dude…where’s my country?

  17. bad12 17
    31 July 2013 at 9:30 pm

    Lolz i wish you people would stop it, the almost palpable wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth i could swear i almost feel through reading your comments has me in fits of the giggles,

    It’s bad for my health all this humor, check Roy’s graph between 2008 and the election at 2011, NOTE the amount of time Roy touts, nay PIMPS, National as being able to govern alone and then ask yourself what grand disaster befell National a mere couple of months befor the 2011 election that caused them to nearly not be the Government at all,

    Rumor has it that the old dame behind the Reid-poll cracks up in grand merriment every-time TV3 broadcast the results of Her polling efforts, i am starting to think that over in Oz Roy is also roaring fit to bust,

    Roy’s latest certainly gives me the giggles…

  18. Puddleglum 18
    31 July 2013 at 9:32 pm

    As karol has just pointed out:

    “This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 824 electors from July 15-28, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.”

    I think that’s a smaller sample than usual. Also, the margin of error will be larger than that estimated in the table for 40-60% range – i.e., +/-3.2.

    Having said that, it is the fourth consecutive Roy Morgan poll showing increases for National.

  19. McFlock 19
    31 July 2013 at 9:33 pm

    So what the hell’s happened over the last two months to reverse a solid trend? I mean, that’s four consecutive drops in the RM, which hasn’t happened since goff.

    I think at least some of it is garnishers and jonolists editing the truth, but it’s not like labour’s made a sudden change in its performance in that time period. Any ideas?

    • Colonial Viper 19.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:35 pm

      Dunno, mate, things were going so well too; I’m as absolutely shocked and surprised as you are.

      • Paul 19.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:38 pm

        It doesn’t seem to make any sense.
        GCSB, Sky City. Pike River, Christchurch schools…..

        • Colonial Viper 19.1.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 9:43 pm

          I think the non-vote is swelling massively, as opposed to people going to National. Remember, one serious downfall of the RM is that they do not publish the % of “don’t knows/don’t care”. That’s where the Labour vote is going, as per 2011.

          The Greens – theirs is reasonably likely to be an error of margin blip.

      • Craig Glen Eden 19.1.2
        31 July 2013 at 9:51 pm

        funny CV

    • karol 19.2
      31 July 2013 at 9:36 pm

      Too many polls. Clouds the issues.

    • Rhinocrates 19.3
      31 July 2013 at 9:37 pm

      but it’s not like labour’s made a sudden change in its performance

      Correct. They have remained consistently, reliably, steadily self-absorbed, uninspiring, divided, lazy and incompetent.

      Remember: the customer is always right.

      • McFlock 19.3.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:49 pm

        whoops, there I go stalking again…

        • Rhinocrates 19.3.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 9:52 pm

          Right, no answer, I see. You think it’s all about you and me – no, it’s about the left winning. Try to remember that.

          • McFlock 19.3.1.1.1
            31 July 2013 at 10:12 pm

            such words of reasonableness from someone just back from a ban for bringing woodchippers into the conversation.

            Right, this is not going to end up being a derail argument. Fuck off. I will do what you are completely incapable of, you moron. So, go fuck yourself. bye bye.

            • Rhinocrates 19.3.1.1.1.1
              31 July 2013 at 10:19 pm

              As I said… so thank’s for making my point, but really, it’s a very small point indeed and you needn’t have gone to the effort.

    • Vagabundo 19.4
      31 July 2013 at 9:38 pm

      The attempt at manufacturing a coup by Duncan Garner, as well as the “man ban” debacle comes to mind. There might be something else, but that’s really all that I can recall at the moment. Nevertheless, it was a pretty rancid two weeks for the opposition. Well, more so than usual at least. This latest poll wouldn’t account for the latest GCSB blow-up (the polling period ended this past Sunday) but there you go.

      • Yes 19.4.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:45 pm

        [deleted]

        [lprent: Already banned and now subject to an extra 8 weeks ]

        • Colonial Viper 19.4.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 9:50 pm

          Who cares who got what phone records etc. I think the press have got this wrong about privilege

          But Sir Geoffrey Palmer is spot on. Multiple abuses of Parliamentary privilege have likely occured, centred around instructions from John Key’s office.

        • McFlock 19.4.1.2
          31 July 2013 at 10:31 pm

          maybe in housing.
          It’s literally “closer to home” than GCSB illegally tapping KDC.

        • UglyTruth 19.4.1.3
          1 August 2013 at 4:07 am

          The GCSB saga is a symptom of a much larger underlying story which goes back to the end of WW2, which marked the beginnings of the NSA, the UKUSA agreement, and comprehensive restructuring of the western security apparatus.

          Soviet empire building was never enough of a threat to the west to justify this level of effort. The nature of the threat to the west wasn’t a military one, but rather a cultural problem which threatened to challenge the dominant role of the state. From this time the US state conducted several studies to investigate the issue, and then rejected their findings.

          Probably the key event for understanding this behaviour was Operation Highjump, which was the largest military operation to place following the surrender of the Nazi armies. Admiral Byrd’s history of exploration of both the North & South poles made him the ideal candidate to lead the operation.

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU85o4Laizw

        • framu 19.4.1.4
          1 August 2013 at 12:47 pm

          your forgetting that dispite the mistrust of journos by the public – polliticians still come in lower down the list

          and your 100% wrong on the gcsb issue

      • Arfamo 19.4.2
        31 July 2013 at 9:47 pm

        It probably hasn’t picked up the foreign non-resident housing policy either – announced on 28 July and that’s the last day of the phone poll’s 15-28 July polling period. And the msm coverage of that focussed on National’s framing with racism accusations. It’s only now that serious journos are starting to recognise its appeal.

        • Colonial Viper 19.4.2.1
          31 July 2013 at 10:26 pm

          The Wellington earthquakes have made people decide that they need a political party with steady, trustworthy hands and which is ready to govern.

          • Vagabundo 19.4.2.1.1
            31 July 2013 at 10:44 pm

            Unfortunately, all they have is the Nats.

            • Colonial Viper 19.4.2.1.1.1
              31 July 2013 at 10:55 pm

              Yes, that is indeed what I am saying.

              • KJT …
                1 August 2013 at 5:34 am

                That the top of the Labour party is so bad they make even the bumbling incompetent buffoons and evil puppets in National look good, by comparison. Yes.

                Which is why we need direct democracy.

                The thought of giving any of them, present political leaders, the absolute power we do, makes me cringe

                • Colonial Viper …
                  1 August 2013 at 6:56 am

                  Direct democracy and especially local democracy. Wellington must begin to devolve some of its powers back to local government and local communities.

    • Puddleglum 19.5
      31 July 2013 at 9:45 pm

      “but it’s not like labour’s made a sudden change in its performance in that time period”

      It takes two to tango.

      You’re right that the long-run graph shows a decline in public support for National, but a couple of months ago the ‘drift down’ abruptly reversed.

      It may be that the public were waiting for Labour to ‘step up’ after getting disillusioned with National, and were actually giving them quite a long time to do so. But, as you point out, nothing changed in Labour’s performance so perhaps the public just swung back in behind National, slightly disappointed that they had to do that.

      In politics as in many things, there are windows of opportunity so far as ‘bedding in’ changes in public sentiment is concerned.

      Labour seems to have forgotten how to ‘dance’ with the public.

      • McFlock 19.5.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:56 pm

        It may be that the public were waiting for Labour to ‘step up’ after getting disillusioned with National, and were actually giving them quite a long time to do so. But, as you point out, nothing changed in Labour’s performance so perhaps the public just swung back in behind National, slightly disappointed that they had to do that.

        maybe, but not likely. Otherwise that would have given a static line, rather than gradua increases, preceding the drop.

        • Puddleglum 19.5.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 11:04 pm

          We’re getting a long way ahead of the data in speculating in this way, but what I meant was that the ‘(very)slow bleed’ of people to Labour was a kind of hopeful move (to indicate that, ‘yes’ we will go your way if you ‘step up’ and this is a promissory note of what could follow).

          That hope wasn’t fulfilled so not only did no more cross the line but those who came across signalling their friendly intentions were not ’embraced’ and so they could easily cut their weak ties and drift back again.

          Or something like that.

          • McFlock 19.5.1.1.1
            1 August 2013 at 11:37 pm

            it’s cool, we’re hypothesizing on the reasons for the shape of the curve so far, not necessarily predicting precise future results at this stage 🙂

            Okay, so it’s a bit like magnetic fields being bent one way against opposing forces until they finally collapse back like a whip (oh shit – nested metaphors. sorry 🙂 )? Possible, but it seems a bit neat for my taste. It doesn’t have much in the way of external factors – that pressure against labour got released, but into what? Astronomical magnetic fields ‘snapping’ create aurorae or solar flares. To say “apathy” is suddenly and forcefuly created from a similar idea in politics seems counter-intuitive – I’d expect it to galvanise around something or someone, but it hasn’t. E.g. Brash and Orewa, or Winston and damned near anything he does (politically productive or “NO” disastrous, he has an effect). But it hasn’t gone anywhere – everyone on the left is down, and if you mean “gone back again” to National, then that validates the approach that some accuse labour of: moving right to steal national votes. The irony is that in that case, it suggests that labour haven’t actually been following that plan at all, otherwise they wouldn’t be where they are now.

      • Saarbo 19.5.2
        31 July 2013 at 11:30 pm

        Yes, agree

    • Jenny 19.6
      31 July 2013 at 9:46 pm

      ….it’s not like labour’s made a sudden change in its performance in that time period. Any ideas?

      McFlock

      The answer is in the question.

      • McFlock 19.6.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:51 pm

        No, it is not. There is an effect with no cause.

        edit: and Jenny, don’t forget your own humble contribution to jonolism, of course.

        • Rhinocrates 19.6.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 9:57 pm

          Have you considered becoming a theologian?

        • Jenny 19.6.1.2
          31 July 2013 at 9:59 pm

          No ideas, is the cause.

          • McFlock 19.6.1.2.1
            31 July 2013 at 10:05 pm

            two months ago labour suddenly stopped having ideas?

            • Jenny 19.6.1.2.1.1
              1 August 2013 at 9:12 pm

              Apart from the question mark it is hard to know whether this is a statement or a question.

              Two months ago the Spy scandal started to erupt. What is Labour’s response? Let’s have a review. Everyone knows that a review is, code for, do nothing, consequently the public switch off.

              It probably doesn’t help that Dunne and Key have already agreed to hold a review.

  20. Paul 20
    31 July 2013 at 9:40 pm

    Labour Party in the UK are also “consistently, reliably, steadily uninspiring, divided, lazy and incompetent.” yet lead the Tories by 12%

    • Rhinocrates 20.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:47 pm

      So what do they poll in Ulan Bator, Luxembourg, Shangri-La, Barsoom, Middle Earth, or Perelandra? More importantly, how about New Zealand?

      Perhaps instead you mean that Mumblefuck and his cronies are even more egregiously unsuited than Milliband and co versus Cameron?

    • Tamati 20.2
      31 July 2013 at 11:13 pm

      Not so much anymore.

      Lead is around 4%,

      http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

      • Colonial Viper 20.2.1
        31 July 2013 at 11:45 pm

        Yeah, UKIP has gone backwards and the Tories have been the sole beneficiaries.

        • Tamati 20.2.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 11:54 pm

          With their crazy FPP system Labour could plausibly win a majority with less than one third of the vote.

  21. Rosetinted 21
    31 July 2013 at 9:43 pm

    So there was a NZ wide selection – what ages have been selected out?

    • Rhinocrates 21.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:50 pm

      Grasping at straws there, I think… sorry…

      If an estimation of success depends on a quibble about methodology, then things are desperate, and there’s a strong whiff of denial in the air.

      Unfortunately, it smells just like rot.

  22. Craig Glen Eden 22
    31 July 2013 at 9:47 pm

    Shearers a joke pure and simple and voters wont warm to him. You would think the Labour caucus would be starting to see the writing on the wall but probably not, after all the majority of it voted for Shearer to be the leader. Labours slowly sinking with its incompetent Leader and caucus really sad but there you go.

    • Paul 22.1
      31 July 2013 at 9:56 pm

      I think a telling moment with Shearer was all that stuff about his bank accounts in New York.
      Labour needs leaders who are more like the supporters they represent.

      • Colonial Viper 22.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 9:59 pm

        How many experienced tradespersons, miners or machinists in the Labour caucus today?

        • KJT 22.1.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 5:39 am

          Unfortunately, none.

          We may get some fire and passion instead of time serving apparatchiks.

          And some competence on both sides.

    • Sanctuary 22.2
      31 July 2013 at 10:30 pm

      “…You would think the Labour caucus would be starting to see the writing on the wall…”

      Writing on what wall? To remind you, the self-serving cause of the current disaster:

      NEW ZEALAND LABOUR PARTY List 2011
      1.Phil Goff
      2.Annette King
      3.David Cunliffe
      4.David Parker
      5.Ruth Dyson
      6.Parekura Horomia
      7.Maryan Street
      8.Clayton Cosgrove
      9.Trevor Mallard
      10.Sue Moroney
      11.Charles Chauvel
      12.Nanaia Mahuta
      13.Jacinda Ardern
      14.Grant Robertson
      15.Andrew Little
      16.Shane Jones

      They could drift down to Green levels of support and Goff, King and Mallard would still have jobs for life.

      • Rhinocrates 22.2.1
        31 July 2013 at 10:36 pm

        Well, that list is a bit out of date, but your point is very clear.

        “Crisis? What crisis? Have you tried the Châteauneuf-du-Pape at Bellamy’s?”

        • Sanctuary 22.2.1.1
          31 July 2013 at 10:55 pm

          The list is out of date, but the failure to renew the paerliamentary party in favour of incumbency protection of chronically underperforming senior MP’s is the direct cause of Labour’s poor poll performance. The perverse lackadasical culture of the disfynctional caucus means the good attract the enmity of the mediocre in the parliamentary Labour party.

          Labour needs a purge of it’s parlimentary old guard, starting at the next conference with rules – anyone putting up a terms limit remit? – clearly sending a message to the deadwood. If it means the old guard walk away and form the Labour-Blues with Dunne, so be it.

          • Colonial Viper 22.2.1.1.1
            31 July 2013 at 11:22 pm

            Bringing onboard ‘new faces’ on the List but chosen specifically for their known loyalties to the old guard and ability to reinforce the status quo, is also common Labour practice. Former staffers, activists etc. A total Wellington Bubbleness which cannot be penetrated.

            • Olwyn 22.2.1.1.1.1
              31 July 2013 at 11:32 pm

              Something that has crossed my mind recently: a negative side of MMP is that it actually reinforces political careerism, since one only has to gain the confidence of one’s colleagues and not necessarily the public. I am certainly not touting for FPP, just noting. In its early stages it seemed as if it would bring a new kind of person into the political arena, but it seems instead to tend toward a technocratic political culture.

              • Tamati …
                31 July 2013 at 11:42 pm

                Is there any motivation among the party members to reform how the list is made? Would be a great start in democratizing the party.

              • Colonial Viper …
                31 July 2013 at 11:44 pm

                The establishment looks after itself. This is the most dependable characteristic of any bureaucracy.

          • Saarbo 22.2.1.1.2
            31 July 2013 at 11:29 pm

            +1

      • DavidC 22.2.2
        1 August 2013 at 8:17 am

        There are at least 10 on that list that should not have made it past July ’09. Goff should have done the job of putting them (and himself) out to pasture.

  23. Jackal 23
    31 July 2013 at 10:05 pm

    Personally I think that people should be questioning whether the entire polling system is corrupt, just like the current government.

    • Colonial Viper 23.1
      31 July 2013 at 10:37 pm

      Yes, agree, it’s the polls that are wrong. Don’t let them deflect Labour from what we know is the true and correct course.

  24. felix 24
    31 July 2013 at 10:32 pm

    Sorry this is in the wrong place, but it bears repeating anyway:

    Really, Mallard as Speaker? Mumblefuck as PM, fossilised Rogernomes like Goff and King as senior ministers, victims of terminal testosterone poisoning like Jones, and God help us, Tamihere, yuppies like that snot Hipkins in the inner circle… and the best talent on the back benches precisely because they have ideas, ability, vision?

    It may be reassuring to talk about “sleepy hobbits”, but I feel that New Zealanders do at least know incompetence when they see it.

    Indeed, Rhino. It’s not rocket surgery.

    • pollywog 24.1
      31 July 2013 at 10:52 pm

      I have great faith that Kris Fa’afoi will invent a time machine, travel back to advise Goff to anoint Cunliffe as next leader before stopping off for a bucket of KFC, cos that shit tasted wayy better back in the day!

      • Tamati 24.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 11:39 pm

        At least that way he might get to see the opening of New Zealand’s first McDonalds.

  25. Saarbo 25
    31 July 2013 at 11:20 pm

    What a terrible trend in these polls…I reckon that the National Party are selling themselves well and currently have a lot of friends in the media doing their selling work also. With House prices rising many Kiwi’s are feeling reasonably wealthy again, interest rates are low and National constantly harp on about how well they are managing the economy post GFC. Meanwhile workers rights are being eroded like never before, New Zealand inequality is growing very visibly and the increasing house prices are making the poor even poorer, unaffordable housing is the heart of our poverty issue. I guess in this environment, supporters of National become stauncher in supporting their Party and supporters of the Left become stronger in supporting their Parties.

    Phil Twyford listed the policies that Labour is trying to highlight below in a recent comment and in my humble opinion they look QUITE GOOD. But these Policies are not being SOLD, because Shearer is incapable of selling them, I will be honest, he’s fucken hopeless…he would be middle management material at best. IMHO only David Cunliffe is capable of selling a good Left narrative that could persuade the 5% to 10% (110k voters to 220k voters) of National voters to swing to Labour. But this is where the crux of the problem lies, the incredibly powerful and self destructive ABC brigade will never let that happen, and voters know this. So the soft middle voters will stay with National because Labour is dysfunctional and just doesn’t seem like a party that should be running the country. So as a Lefty and ex Labour Party member I am left wanting to support Labour, but then also understand why some people aren’t.

    http://thestandard.org.nz/labours-new-housing-policy-shearer-on-qa/#comment-669958
    Comment from Phil Twyford:
    “…but I would have thought that using the Crown balance sheet to build 100,000 affordable homes, and legislating to make it mandatory for landlords to provide warm dry homes was pretty good evidence in a housing policy of a committed move away from hands off free market policies. Put that alongside a jobs and modern manufacturing policy that includes rewriting the Reserve Bank Act, a government procurement policy that puts Kiwi firms first, R&D tax credits, a Capital Gains Tax, and raising the top tax rate for >$150K. Add that to a commitment to do away with the Bradford electricity reforms and introduce a single buyer model, a promise not to sell any state assets, and a commitment to strengthening collective bargaining (rather than weakening it as National is doing). I know it won’t satisfy everyone at The Standard but policy-wise that all adds up in my view to a pretty decisive break with the old orthodoxy.”

    • Olwyn 25.1
      31 July 2013 at 11:25 pm

      The thing is, to sell policy you have to stand behind it, embody it, and make it your own. Labour, broadly speaking is not doing that. Instead it is intermittently running policy up the flag pole and waiting to see if anyone salutes it. This gives no measure of their commitment, and consequently fails to engage potential voters.

      • Saarbo 25.1.1
        31 July 2013 at 11:35 pm

        Yep, supported by Shearer leaving the country the day after the Labour/Greens Power policy was announced…dedicated.

      • Colonial Viper 25.1.2
        31 July 2013 at 11:40 pm

        I see Len Brown is reported to have come out against Labour’s ban on foreign residential housing buyers.

    • srylands 25.2
      31 July 2013 at 11:42 pm

      The electorate does understand these are Labour policies. That is why the polls are abysmal. The policies are naff or bad. A “modern manufacturing policy”? Rewriting the Reserve Bank Act when it is regarded by the international banking community as an exemplar. Rewrite the Act, NZD drops 5 cents, oops petrol price goes up, middle NZ screams.

      All National needs to do is print out the Phil Package and laminate it for the voters – like a pledge card in reverse and mock it and attack it. How can you not see that?

      • Colonial Viper 25.2.1
        31 July 2013 at 11:51 pm

        Recent Labour policies have been excellent, if somewhat watered down. Their “selling” into the voter market has been deficient, though. Really, anything that the international banking community frowns upon has got to be considered as at least partly meritorious, for starters.

        Also, “middle NZ” (the top 20% of the country) will just have to accept that paying an extra $5 to fill their SUVs or paying an extra $25 for their iPad is just the costs of living. They can cope. In fact, there are many benefits in the true cost of petrol/diesel being realised in a higher market price.

        The upside is the multibillion dollar boost that a lower dollar will give to our exporters, including our manufacturers and ag/hort sector.

      • KJT 25.2.2
        1 August 2013 at 4:34 am

        Srylands must be the paid astroturfer for this month.

        It would be nice if they sent someone to turf this site that had an original thought, though!

        It gets tiresome having to debunk the same rubbish, all the time.

        The constant parade of RWNJ’s, parroting the same old shit, show the truth of the research about the lower intelligence of the right wing and the lack of thought of authoritarian followers.

        http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/millennial-media/201304/do-racism-conservatism-and-low-iq-go-hand-in-hand

        http://issuepedia.org/Authoritarian_follower
        “Authoritarian followers generally prefer to subordinate themselves to a large organization within which they have little or no power.”

        I wish they would just “grow up”.

  26. hush minx 26
    31 July 2013 at 11:27 pm

    There is no doubt that labor and their performance are a real danger to the Greens. It’s not just labor members who want labor to sort themselves out. Do I care who’s leader? Yes, but first let’s
    acknowledge Shearer has to go. Caucus- vote him out. Worry about who will replaces him second to that. But anyone will be better. Just let the process take its course. Please.

    • Bearded Git 26.1
      1 August 2013 at 9:39 am

      Yep Shearer HAS TO GO.

      Cunliffe’s one real sin is that he is left-wing; so what’s wrong with that? Labour can’t lose by changing to a more eloquent and passionate leader.

      Banish prat Hipkins to the very back benches. Moroney, King, Dyson and Cosgrove have to go. Twyford, O’Connor, Little and Clark are good performers.

      Top 11 should be (not ranked at this stage) Cunliffe-Little-Clark-Robertson-Parker-Adhern-Twyford-O’Connor-Fenton-Jones-Goff.

      This has sufficient number of good new and talented faces. Problem is only two women-open to suggestions here. Should Shearer be given a consolation role?

  27. xtasy 27
    1 August 2013 at 1:08 am

    I hate this, I hate this, I NEVER wanted to post here again, but here you guys get it!

    It is exactly what I expected, it is what I sense and know, what was due to happen, I warned you ALL, for sure, but some to do not bloody get it!

    Here is the work that Labour and Greens should be focused on, amongst other stuff, and why do amateurs like my mates and I have to work on doing the shit?

    Get a taste, of welfare reform challenge, I hear NADA from shit Labour, even lousy Greens now, to raise the real bloody issues. Here it is, READ IT:

    http://accforum.org/forums/index.php?/topic/15188-medical-and-work-capability-assessments-based-on-the-bps-model-aimed-at-disentiteling-affected-from-welfare-benefits-and-acc-compo/

    Download the bloody PDF, study and read it, and bloody phone, email and hammer your damned MPs, get them bloody hammered on housing, welfare, on economic, education and other policies.

    If that does not work, get a NEW PARTY started, by bloody October or November 2013! They betray us on welfare, social justice, do not deliver on labour laws, do slack here and there, and all focus is trying on catching Don Key out on his spy agenda. As well as that is justified, the policy and Labour and left and social democratic policy agenda MUST come FIRST, none ELSE!

    • blue leopard 27.1
      1 August 2013 at 1:39 am

      I’ve been wondering where you were xtasy,
      noting the horrible horrible treatment of welfare recipients
      that you warned about
      and has deeply affected me
      I very much agree with your comment
      very well said

      • xtasy 27.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 2:36 am

        We need a SPIRIT and POLICY change in Labour, a message, the constant and desperate attack on Key to expose his lies is perhaps right to some degree, but the left will not win an election merely on discrediting Key, there needs to be a damned PLAN, but few, if any see it. The PLAN must be defining, clear policy, and so far the housing and energy policy are at best mediocre. More is needed, and that is what people out there expect. National is wearing itself out, but winning an election due to the government being too bad will never be the best agenda. Even Helen knew better.

    • KJT 27.2
      1 August 2013 at 4:51 am

      Entirely agree with you Xtasy.

      The welfare “reforms” are just the start of an evil attack on the sick, old and unemployed.

      Unfortunately, Labour, instead of countering the constant memes from the right wing, who are happy for people to live on the streets in cardboard boxes, like Calcutta, and in a rubbish tip, like Manila, just so they can pay a few dollars a week less taxes, or pay “consultants”, and managers, thousands, are joining in with neo-liberal attacks on welfare, such as raising the retirement age.

      At least two of the teenagers, and now young adults, I have helped, mostly by letting them “crash” in our basement and sometimes feeding them, are mentally ill, for real, after years of being shuttled between uncaring WINZ people, bullshit courses supposed to help them into work and unscrupulous employers. (Who get subsidies for giving them jobs, then find an excuse to sack, or cause them to resign, usually by reducing hours to less than they need to live, when the subsidy runs out, so they can get another subsidised worker).

      Don’t even get me started on the “industry” of “helping” the unemployed.

      You can imagine what all that does to the self esteem and the mental state of a young person just starting out. Now it will be much worse.

      Labour needs to get a spine, cut out the dead wood, and take away ownership of the dialogue from RWNJ’s.

      • Descendant Of Sssmith 27.2.1
        1 August 2013 at 8:18 am

        For a significant number of years there has been three significant failures in the employment of those with disabilities and illness:
        1. The failure of the private sector to employ them
        2. The failure of the government to employ them and in addition to lay off large numbers of those previously employed
        3. The failure of government agencies to provide support and education to employers and support including financial help and actual tangible support to find work

        I remember my wife taking a boy with Downs Syndrome who wanted a job to WINZ for help. The staff members attitude was quite clear in that she did not believe he could work. My wife found him a job anyway and not at the below wage rate so beloved of most agencies helping those with intellectual disabilities.

        You see if the government wanted those with disabilities to work, in a genuine way, they would simply ramp up the effort to help them in a non-threatening and benign way.

        A government that supports it’s citizens wouldn’t castigate them, they wouldn’t label them as bludgers and malingerers, they wouldn’t have bureaucratic gobbeldy gook statements on medical certificates, they wouldn’t create a climate of fear.

        I posted once before that Labour would do well simply by promoting and supporting the governments own Disability Strategy and using that as guidance. That policy was written with and by those who have disabilities and paints a very positive picture of how those with disabilities view work and how they wish to be treated.

        http://www.odi.govt.nz/nzds/

        It begs the question – if you can benignly help those who are unwell and with disability to have meaningful work and meaningful incomes what is the real agenda to do this in such a draconian manner?

  28. xtasy 28
    1 August 2013 at 1:22 am

    The “leadership” of Labour is devoid of competence, it is redundant, it is due to replacement, and a thorough challenge now, for sure. The whole front bench needs replacing, and there must be a radical cleansing of the under-performers right now. I even gave Shearer some credit for a speech at the Anti GCSB Protest in Auckland last Saturday, but honestly, recent media and yesterday’s Parliamentary responses, were not looking good. Robertson will have his issues.

    Where is the A-team, where is the B-team, I ask, it does not seem to exist. A betrayal to all of us, on benefits, poor, sick, neglected, betrayed, let down, exposed to abuse by a harsh, ruthless and mean-spirited, in part illegally acting government, that is what this represents to me and a fair few others.

    Shearer, stand the fucking damned sake down, NOW, thank you!

    • Mary 28.1
      1 August 2013 at 2:18 am

      Do you think that the housing policy announcement and the latest blunders by Key over the spying issue might mean the next poll will be different? My guess is that they won’t make a jot of difference and that in fact support for Keys will probably increase. That will show how redundant the current Labour party’s become.

      • xtasy 28.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 2:30 am

        The issue is the MEDIA, they are in the hands of Key loyalists, and the are mostly that, I have followed Radio Live, ZB, and so forth, it is shocking. We need to push the social media, and engage people face to face that we know, there is no other solution, as the MSM is despite all scandals sticking with “security” (economic BS and bias reliance) and Key and National, that is the damned challenge.

        No matter how much is debated in qeustion time, and I said it before, it will move little, unless a real big scandal is exposed. But Labour and Greens spend all their energy on that, and lose the fight on POLICY and making a REAL DIFFERENCE on those much more important matters that the ordinary folk are concerned about. A change of attack agenda is overdue, but their advisors, changing Shearer’s one from bad to worse, is hopeless!

        • Mary 28.1.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 2:39 am

          Yes, the hopelessness around Labour caused me long ago to retreat into mere reliance on hope that Keys would misjudge the level of contempt he could get away with. If that’s the general sentiment then it isn’t a good sign.

          • Colonial Viper 28.1.1.1.1
            1 August 2013 at 11:32 am

            I think this one poll is a low read based on the bad handling of the Man Ban nonsense, also Nick Smith’s decline of the tunnel in Southland was popular with many conservation minded types, further people trust National to sort out issues from the Wellington earthquake.

            Based on people liking the NOFORN housing policy the next Roy Morgan should be back up in the ~31% range.

            • weka 28.1.1.1.1.1
              1 August 2013 at 11:35 am

              the first two reasons make sense, not sure about the quake one though. Haven’t they been paying attention to Chch?

            • Mary 28.1.1.1.1.2
              1 August 2013 at 12:36 pm

              And surely the very recent Dunne/Henry/Vance email stuff must hurt National? Then again, it’ll probably make Key more popular, especially when we’ve now got al-Qaeda training in Helensville.

              • weka …
                1 August 2013 at 5:40 pm

                Very recent stuff won’t be in this poll, there’s always a time lag.

                • Mary …
                  1 August 2013 at 6:48 pm

                  That was my point.

                  • Colonial Viper …
                    1 August 2013 at 7:05 pm

                    Labour bounce to 31% or 31.5% is about as much as we can hope for I think. Yes the GCSB/Vance stuff is going to hurt Key but at the moment he will be feeling “relaxed.”

                    • gobsmacked …
                      1 August 2013 at 7:30 pm

                      TVNZ have been polling this week, results out on Sunday.

                      National 45%
                      Labour 35%
                      Greens 10%

                      That would save Shearer … for another week anyway.

                    • Mary …
                      1 August 2013 at 11:35 pm

                      Am looking forward to hearing him say he’s relaxed about having to resign.

  31. xtasy 31
    1 August 2013 at 2:14 am

    Anyway, we need no “holy” repetition, we know the challenges ahead, for the left it means: UNITE, no matter what differences, but get the leadership challenged and improved, or all will be LOST! Learn from other countries and their mistakes, that is the left of centre there. So much to gain, and too bloody much to lose!!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsdYs2qE7hA

    • Mary 31.1
      1 August 2013 at 2:21 am

      “…but get the leadership challenged and improved…”

      That’s the problem right there. How to do that nobody seems to know. That’s why it remains a problem.

      • xtasy 31.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 2:25 am

        Lobby, lobby, lobby, speak, speak, speak, repeat, repeat, repeat, send the message, and include, involve, talk, that is the only way, or they will stick to “chairs” like in old style Eastern Block systems. A challenge must be presented, can be expressed verbally, must be shared and spread, that is all I can say. Thanks Mary

    • Chooky 31.2
      1 August 2013 at 10:38 am

      @ xtasy ….! good to see you back!

  32. keith Ross 32
    1 August 2013 at 5:57 am

    FFS the public just want someone who can speak well and articulate to the average person what they would do differently. Shearer is a total dud, I can’t listen to him ,it is painful. The public would love Cunlife, he is very articulate and motivating, that’s what the public like, not some bumbling idiot who again is a pain to listen to. I do not like key but he can speak and is quick on his feet. He will slaughter that simpleton come the election season. the real reason that Cunlife is not leader is that he would get rid of the old guard who are not performing unless you call riding the gravy train performing.

    • Terry 32.1
      1 August 2013 at 6:36 pm

      I couldn’t agree more. If Cunliffe were leading the party I’d be feeling a damned sight better about things right now but Shearer is as you said, painful to listen to. Labour need to grow a spine and drop Shearer now because the longer they leave it the worse the damage will be.

  33. Core_Labour_Voter (Tory troll) 33
    1 August 2013 at 7:04 am

    Labour is the only party with progressive polices. People will take their time to understand. Do not panic and ignore the polls. Shearer will start to improve the position of Labour early next year. National is peaking way too early and start to drop off. No reason for panic. Labour is still polling higher than election night.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 33.1
      1 August 2013 at 7:07 am

      Santi got a new IP address?

      • Arfamo 33.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 11:46 pm

        Possibly twins. Newbie Golden Teapot tonight also looks like Santi.

        • weka 33.1.1.1
          2 August 2013 at 2:00 pm

          Not too bright though. You’d think they could try and change the phrasing and tone of their astroturfing. Probably not getting paid enough.

  34. amirite 34
    1 August 2013 at 7:14 am

    NZers are just a bunch of dense motherfuckers.

  35. bad12 35
    1 August 2013 at 7:31 am

    Lolz, i am going to be naughty here and repeat myself, here is a FACT about the Roy Morgan poll,

    Question, How many months between the 2008 election and 2011 election did Roy Morgan poll the National Party share of the vote to within 4% of what National got in actual votes at the 2011 election,

    Answer, i have not gone into such detail of actually counting, BUT, a quick look at Roy Morgans graph of support for National and it tells me the answer is about 4,

    So, Roy Morgan in the 36 months between the 2008 and 2011 elections got the National Party % of the vote within 4% of being correct on 4 occasions and on 32 occasions between those elections polled the National Party support at between 4 and 10% higher than the 2011 election result,

    The only time the Roy Morgan poll shows Roy getting the % of the National Party support correct is in fact at the time of the 2011 election where Roy got to put His ruler on the page and rule a pretty blue line from the point of His last poll prior to that election to that actual election result, which resulted in Roy’s poll showing a drop of support in the few weeks leading up to the 2011 election of 6%,

    I am a little incredulous when it comes to Roy Morgan polls, not so much incredulous concerning the fact that Roy only ever gets it right within the margin of error on election night when He gets to rule that pretty blue line from His last poll to connect that last poll with the actual result,

    I am more incredulous about the veracity many seemingly highly intelligent people award to a Poll which never gets it right and continuously gets it wrong to the point of always, judging by the following election, gets it wrong by between 4 and 10%,

    Roy tho is consistent, in the period between the elections 2008-2011 Roy never once got it wrong by polling National support lower than the next election result, Roy always talks the National Party UP by between 4 and 10% of the vote that National never get,

    What i have said there takes no account of the realities of day to day political life where Party’s will go up and down int he polls,

    Having said all that, Roy says we are doomed, doomed you hear, PANIC….

    • karol 35.1
      1 August 2013 at 7:37 am

      The poll includes the responses for 824 potential voter. Is the sample unusually small because there were a lot of “dunno” responses that were not included?

      Nevertheless, the long term trend over all polls is not great news for Labour or the left.

      • bad12 35.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 7:55 am

        Only IF you assume Roy is correct Karol, Roy at times during the period between the 2008 election and the 2011 election polled National up near 10% of support it never went on to gain in November 2011,

        Roy during that 3 year period only ever 3 or 4 times got National’s share of the vote ‘right’ within 4% in terms of the actual vote in 2011, and Roy always erred on Nationals behalf with such polling by being wrong by that 4% or more on the plus side of 50%,

        It is tho a good poll which says remove the incumbent Dave and replace him with the other Dave, lets…

        • DavidC 35.1.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 8:02 am

          bad12.

          You can say its wrong all you like but this poll is just a touch worse than the TV3 poll last month. The trend for Labour is clear over last 4-5 months and the Greens ever since election. Downward.

          I look at the Curiablog http://curiablog.wordpress.com/ time/size weighted results for a better more even feel of where things are.

          • bad12 35.1.1.1.1
            1 August 2013 at 8:10 am

            LOLZ, but Roy between election 2008 and election 2011 did get it wrong 32 months out of 36,

            And of the 4 months i ascribe to Roy getting it right, all of them were only right by being 4% on the high side of the National %,

            Hell who am i to argue, Roy says we are doomed doomed you hear, it’s obviously time to Panic, demand the head of the Labour party leader,(in spite of most here not being members of that Party), and at the very least lose any positive inclinations you may have of a left leaning coalition government in 2014…

            • DavidC 35.1.1.1.1.1
              1 August 2013 at 8:13 am

              bad12.

              I realllly hope everyone at LP HQ listens to you and keeps on steering the ship toward the big white icy lump in the middle of the sea. Afterall what could possibly go wrong?

              Keep up the good work.

              • bad12 …
                1 August 2013 at 8:44 am

                Thanks for that David C, equally i really hope that everyone at National HQ fully grasp hold of the ‘Governing alone delusion’ Roy always during the election cycle throws out to them like a trainer throwing the dogs a bone…

              • felix …
                1 August 2013 at 9:19 am

                “and keeps on steering the ship toward the big white icy lump in the middle of the sea.”

                I’m sure with another six months of unwavering dedication to the charted course, Captain Mumblefuck will have the ship righted and heading for the surface.

                (in time to meet the tsunami)

      • DavidC 35.1.2
        1 August 2013 at 7:56 am

        karol.

        Only 4% did not name a party.

        • Colonial Viper 35.1.2.1
          1 August 2013 at 8:47 am

          Interested now. Was that in the RM press release?

        • felix 35.1.2.2
          1 August 2013 at 9:13 am

          That’s 4% of the 824 who responded at all, which as karol notes is an unusually low response so you have to assume an unusually high rate of “can’t be arsed”s and “have no opinion”s.

          Still, it’s not that far off the trend.

    • Lanthanide 35.2
      1 August 2013 at 10:05 am

      “So, Roy Morgan in the 36 months between the 2008 and 2011 elections got the National Party % of the vote within 4% of being correct on 4 occasions and on 32 occasions between those elections polled the National Party support at between 4 and 10% higher than the 2011 election result,”

      Um, polls don’t work that way.

      They ask “how would you vote today”, not “how are you going to vote in November 2011”. They are trying to reflect the reality of the votes on the ground.

      As such, it’s really only worth comparing the polls prior to about 3 months of the election to the election result as some measure of accuracy. Before that period, the best you can really do is compare to other polls and see if they broadly agree or not; unfortunately NZ doesn’t really have enough polling data to get a good gauge on this.

      • bad12 35.2.1
        1 August 2013 at 10:13 am

        LOLZ, go on then L, have a wee squizz at the Morgan graph from 2 months out from the 2011 General election,

        What huge misfortune did National bring upon itself, excluding the whim of Roy, that caused it’s % of the vote to fall so dramatically,

        In 2 big steps down, something like 9% from a month or two out until polling day where Roy’s ruler and pretty blue pen had to shave 5-6% off on the actual day

        • bad12 35.2.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 10:55 am

          The Reid poll as John Armstrong of all people said in a recent column is tainted in that the pollsters ask respondents a series of ‘leading’ questions befor they then ask about voting intentions,

          The ‘leading’ questions are not collated and used to provide a fact, the ‘leading’ questions are so designed and asked so as to attempt to elicit a ‘required’ answer,

          i didn’t hear or see the old dear that ‘owns’ the Reid poll threatening to sue the old codger Armstrong for writing that in His Herald column so i will take it as read that that is in fact how the Reid-poll conducts it’s ‘research’,

          SO, we can collate all these polls and compare them all we like, But, if the information we use to discover the trend is in fact incorrect then the only result we can gather from having done so is going to be an incorrect trend,

          Roy Morgan in most polls cannot get it right even within the margin of error, and in any given poll Roy Morgan ascribes to National 4-9% of support that that party just does not have,

          i read Roy’s latest effort as subtract that 4-9% of support for National and within that subtraction is the true % of National support…

          • Colonial Viper 35.2.1.1.1
            1 August 2013 at 11:27 am

            ban the publishing of polls in the 72 hours before E-Day, to get the focus back on the issues and the campaign.

        • Lanthanide 35.2.1.2
          1 August 2013 at 12:23 pm

          I’m not defending any polls or anything, I’m just saying comparing 3 years of polling to a single election afterwards is an incorrect and irrelevant thing to do.

          • Lanthanide 35.2.1.2.1
            1 August 2013 at 12:36 pm

            For a very simple/extreme example of why this is a stupid thing to do, we can look to the CHCH earthquakes.

            Prior to September 4, Jim Anderton was leading the mayoralty race for CHCH and was highly likely to win, according to the polling done. After the earthquake, Bob won by a comfortable margin.

            If we simply applied your approach of “judge all of the polls compared to the election result”, you would say that the polls that said Jim was going to win were woefully inaccurate. But obviously that is because the earthquake happened and people’s opinions (inexplicably, IMO) changed.

            Hence it is stupid to lambaste the pre-Earthquake polls as being inaccurate compared to the election result. Just as it is equally stupid to lambaste a poll taken in Februrary 2010 as being woefully inaccurate compared to a general election held in November 2011 (after a Rugby World Cup as well, mind).

            • bad12 35.2.1.2.1.1
              1 August 2013 at 1:12 pm

              L, naughty naughty, attempting to debate from a position of ascribing to me words or phrases i have never written nor intended from what i have written looks from here to be the foundations of a rather weak argument,

              Your first point, ”As such, it’s really only worth comparing the polls prior to about 3 months of the election to the election result as some measure of accuracy” unquote,

              That is well and truly answered in my reply above, a fact you seem to be unable to concede instead resorting to that time honored dishonest debating tool of ascribing to me words i have not used nor intended and then expecting me to defend the straw-man you insert into the debate,

              Where you are so wrong is to introduce Jim Anderton and Earthquakes, Jim Anderton was a shoe-in to win the Christchurch mayoralty until the earthquakes, polls reflected that, the earthquake happened and the polls changed to reflect that, Anderton aknowledged that the earthquakes had completely changed the game and i believe even Bob Parker aknowledged that,

              We can see cause and effect in the Christchurch earthquakes and the polls reflected that by changing in favor of Parker after the earthquake,

              However, your original point, look at the Morgan poll 3 odd months out you say that is more accurate, as i point out above, i did, and Morgan shows 2-3 months out from the 2011 election that that poll was woefully polling National around 9% higher than the 2011 election result whereupon it plummeted in a 2 step severe fall to the actual election result,

              LOLZ, what exactly the rugby world Cup had to do with the above is anyone’s guess but your use of the RWC suggests that National plummeted in the polls after we won that cup,because in the Roy Morgan that seems to be what occurred…

              • Lanthanide …
                1 August 2013 at 9:19 pm

                Sorry, it is you who is incapable of reading comprehension, not me.

                It is very simple: you asked how many months between 2008 and 2011 that Roy Morgan was significantly wrong on National’s support compared to the 2011 election result.

                I am pointing out that is a stupid and irrelevant question to ask, because the polls ask “how would you vote if the election was held today”.

                As I expected, you completely missed the point of my bringing up Jim Anderton and the Rugby World Cup. I’m not going to bother replying any further as you seem to be too stubborn to actually try and understand the point I’m making, when really it is quite simple.

                • bad12 …
                  1 August 2013 at 9:26 pm

                  I asked??? you have failed to understand the nature of a rhetorical question but i am really sure that the point you were trying to make was truly simple…

  36. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 36
    1 August 2013 at 8:57 am

    Hang on a minute.

    Isn’t this government corrupt?

    Isn’t it spying on everyone for the benefit of John Key’s wealthy American backers?

    Doesn’t it have a programme of drowning beneficiaries’ babies in shallow pools of rain water?

    How can this be?

    Do you think, maybe, the people are stupid and cannot be trusted?

    • felix 36.1
      1 August 2013 at 9:20 am

      People like Coldplay and voted for the Nazis.

      • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 36.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 9:31 am

        Not the same people.

        • felix 36.1.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 9:53 am

          A bold and foolish assertion.

          • King Kong 36.1.1.1.1
            1 August 2013 at 9:57 am

            It is a little known fact that Chris Martin wrote most of the soundtrack to Goebel’s 1940 masterpiece “Wunschkonzert”.

            • Winston Smith 36.1.1.1.1.1
              1 August 2013 at 10:17 am

              Chris Martin was a fine servant oF NZ cricket but I didn’t know he was a composer (or Nazi)

              • King Kong …
                1 August 2013 at 10:22 am

                Fuuny you should mention that. In a strange bit of linked up trivia, the guy who taught Chris Martin to bat also trains David Shearer on politics.

  37. s y d 37
    1 August 2013 at 9:26 am

    the people aren’t stupid, but they can never be trusted.

    people even like the feelers and vote John Banks

  38. vto 38
    1 August 2013 at 9:29 am

    The latest ‘ups’ in the polls for the nats is entirely driven by people’s happiness with the property bubble and their sense of being richer, together with other economic good news like milk payouts..

    It is a very common phenomenon.

    That’s it. Nothing more.

    • Treetop 38.1
      1 August 2013 at 10:52 am

      The property bubble is not the only bubble that the Nat voters are living in. Wait until they are spyed on.

    • grumpy 38.2
      1 August 2013 at 11:59 am

      Ever thought of going back to being a “righty”, as you were before you started hanging around here and caught Stockholm Syndrome?

  39. Sable 39
    1 August 2013 at 9:49 am

    Polls are questionable things at best. The polls last election made Keys look like a shoe in but if you do the math you will see he only just scraped into power by towing Dunn and the Maori party into office along with him. The view that Keys is popular is when viewed in concrete terms a myth. The stats don’t support this claim.

    Labour’ problem is not Keys gaining support but more that voters who would have supported Labour are disillusioned by their stubborn unwillingness to actually listen to what people want and then stand up and say so. As a result large numbers of people simply stay home on election day which is what happened last time around and may well happen again.

    Shearer has to go but whoever takes his place needs to be willing to listen and then transform public opinion into tangible policy and then be willing to follow that through into legislation.

    Heres may take on a few of the things killing off Labour’s chances of success:

    >Insipid opposition to Keys spy bill
    >No solid decision on foreign investment in NZ housing
    >No real policy on taxing the wealthy and profits from the sale of businesses
    >No solid opposition to predatory behaviour by banks and lending institutions
    >No policy on reforming the growth of regressive taxation
    >No policy on combating the lack of accountability in government
    >No real policy on reforming our failing health system
    >FINALLY entrenching the bill of rights

    • Winston Smith 39.1
      1 August 2013 at 10:09 am

      You forgot to add that National is doing a good job in trying times. Employment down, crime down and the economy up so its no surprise the people of NZ are satisified with National.

      • Sable 39.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 10:16 am

        Yes that’s why droves of Kiwis head for the airport every single week and still do. Everyone is delighted by Keys and his nonsense.

        • Winston Smith 39.1.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 10:19 am

          Yes of course that explains why Nationals down in the polls and Labours up…

  40. bad12 40
    1 August 2013 at 9:54 am

    Hell i am so depressed by the latest Roy Morgan that upon awakening this morning i tried to throw myself under my nephews bus,

    Needless to say i am as bitterly disappointed in the manufacturers of tonka toys as my nephew is in my attempt to wreck his favorite toy…

  41. Winston Smith 41
    1 August 2013 at 10:06 am

    Um this is only a shocker to those who actually thought Labour were gaining traction, to everyone else it isn’t.

    I’ll give Labour a free hint…the voting public don’t care about Dot Con, CSSB or any other belt-way issue

    Even the Greens are more in tune with what the public want (and yes it pains me to say that)

  42. Boadicea 42
    1 August 2013 at 10:20 am

    The problem is not Roy Morgan.
    The problem is not the polling methodologies.

    If there were no polls how would you, your friends and work colleagues, tbe media, the people in your club feel about Labour’s chances of winning the next election? And about the performances of Shearer?

  43. Treetop 43
    1 August 2013 at 10:45 am

    Call in the Feng Shui expert as this will do no harm.

    I have made a real effort to listen more carefully to Shearer and he is improving on how to attack the problem. Shearer gave a good answer on morning report as to how he would run the GCSB.

    May be there are a lot of confused voters out there and clarity will give assurance. There is no clarity or assurance with Key’s mishandling of having oversight of the GCSB and SIS.

    When the poll was taken Parliament was in recess.

  44. Just Like Tiger Woods 44
    1 August 2013 at 11:16 am

    It’s the economy, stupid.

    Labour and the Greens don’t get it. They’re talking about everything but…..

    • unpcnzcougar 44.1
      1 August 2013 at 11:32 am

      Exactly! On the day it is the party(s) who voters think are most capable of managing the economy that get the vote.

    • Just Like Tiger Woods 44.2
      1 August 2013 at 12:40 pm

      Labour needs to spend 100% of their energy promoting core, economic principles, such as job creation, lowering the cost of living, and growing the economy.

      Everything else is beltway, activist, irrelevance.

      So, the result of spending 100% of the time on side issues is falling poll results.

      Labour have made themselves irrelevant, and have no one to blame but themselves.

    • Treetop 44.3
      1 August 2013 at 12:50 pm

      “It’s the economy, stupid.”

      Stupid financial management.

  45. Winston Smith 45
    1 August 2013 at 11:48 am

    Don’t worry Labour supporters I have some ideas which are guaranteed to work:

    1. Don’t change leaders, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it

    2. Concentrate on beltway issues like the GCSB and Dot Con because thats what resonates with the man and woman on the street

    3. Attack John Key because if you make him less popular National will suffer (don’t worry that it hasn’t happened yet keep flinging mud it’ll bound to stick sooner or later)

    4. Labour really need a ratio of 50-50 male to female MPs to show how intune they are with the voters

    5. More cuddling upto the Greens is needed

    6. Whatever you do don’t show loyalty to the Leader

    7. Banish the one person who could potentially foot it with John Key in a debate to the back benches

    8. Keep underestimating John Key, hes only a money man hes obviously not that intelligent

    So there you go, no need to thank me it was my pleasure 🙂

    • srylands 45.1
      1 August 2013 at 11:54 am

      🙂

    • grumpy 45.2
      1 August 2013 at 11:56 am

      Job offer from New York on the way……..

    • Treetop 45.3
      1 August 2013 at 12:38 pm

      Drama after drama and more drama when it comes to taking responsibility for ones actions and being an accountable PM to the public.

      The PM has also not learnt yet to not answer a question until he is certain of the answer. When he gave his assurance to do this about six months ago I had doubt. E.g. Fletcher’s appointment.

  46. infused 46
    1 August 2013 at 12:34 pm

    It’s quite an easy one really…

    People don’t trust Labour. They don’t trust the policies, they don’t trust the old guard. They announce stupid shit like NZ Power, it does nothing but harm.

    Keep doing what you’re doing.

    • insider 46.1
      1 August 2013 at 1:09 pm

      No you don’t get it infused – they are GREAT policies that don’t go far enough. It’s the people who are too stupid to get that, that are the problem. See thread above for details.

      • Winston Smith 46.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 2:02 pm

        Yes thats true, one day the people will come to their senses and see through National and vote Labour in…and then Mallard wakes up

      • infused 46.1.2
        1 August 2013 at 2:02 pm

        Oh, the voters are too stupid.

        You just confirmed my point.

  47. Blue 47
    1 August 2013 at 12:59 pm

    Aussie Labor under Gillard fell 4% in the polls after her ‘men in blue ties’ speech. It was no surprise that the first Roy Morgan taking into account the ‘man ban’ fiasco was going to be a fucking disaster for Labour. They’re bloody lucky it wasn’t worse.

    • Colonial Viper 47.1
      1 August 2013 at 3:56 pm

      I think the answer for Labour is to pursue more gender and sexuality based initiatives, not less.

      • McFlock 47.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 4:31 pm

        Nah, I think the answer is for labour to only release policies that affect good keen blokes. That way the huge voting bloc of Waitakere Men won’t be scared away.

        • Colonial Viper 47.1.1.1
          1 August 2013 at 8:53 pm

          71% of NZers are already scared away, by the looks of it. I think abortion law reform and euthanasia law reform is what we need to bring them back. Also, Labour should require that 50% of corporate board seats are held by women.

          • McFlock 47.1.1.1.1
            1 August 2013 at 10:45 pm

            Oh well, if the end is nigh then Labour might as well die for something, rather than die for nothing.

            You never know, if Labour act according to principles slightly wider than those of sexist, mildly stupid blokes who refuse to think deeply about anything except sports scores, sex and beer, things might improve.

            • Colonial Viper 47.1.1.1.1.1
              1 August 2013 at 10:54 pm

              But that’s precisely what I’m saying. Euthanasia, abortion, and board room gender equality are the issues that the NZ public are simply waiting for real leadership from Labour. Let’s go for gold!

              • McFlock …
                1 August 2013 at 11:13 pm

                well gosh darn it, man, run down to your local branch and start going through the process. Why didn’t you do that last year rather than whinging about personalities?

                • Colonial Viper …
                  1 August 2013 at 11:30 pm

                  I’ve taken your long standing advice to heart mate, I’m very grateful. Shearer’s not important to the formula of Labour’s success, but the positivity of our individual efforts is. This 29% is going to be a very temporary dip, soon to be forgotten!

                  • McFlock …
                    1 August 2013 at 11:52 pm

                    It sure will, now that your political genius is working for the left, rather than sitting on the sideline yelling abuse. Come save us!

      • srylands 47.1.2
        1 August 2013 at 5:05 pm

        Yes the more the better I say.

    • karol 47.2
      1 August 2013 at 8:55 pm

      Yeah. i guess we just have to accept it’s a man’s world and never try to rock the gender boat. After all, in this guy dominated world, the guys are doing such a top notch job.

  48. captain hook 48
    1 August 2013 at 2:03 pm

    at the moment the country knows they are in the thrall of a gang of bohunks who are playing them for all they are worth.
    don keyote (like peyote but twice as dangerous) and co are pissing themselves watching everything going round better than the movies.
    but never fear. the odds will shorten before kweewee and his collection of imbeciles get their marching ordersnext november.

  49. jaymam 49
    1 August 2013 at 4:49 pm

    I’ve just thought of a wonderful idea to improve Labour’s poll ratings.
    Make a list of all the soundbites that Labour MPs have got into TV news recently.
    Get all the Labour MPs to read those sound bites, and a panel decides who is best, on the basis of apparent sincerity, proper phrasing, lack of weird pauses, no stumbling over words, no shifty eyes.
    Make that person the Labour leader.

    e.g. the sound bite “I’m sure my caucus colleages would be of the view that this legislation must not, will not and cannot stand.”

    • McFlock 49.1
      1 August 2013 at 5:01 pm

      because all a leader needs is sound bites, not the confidence of a majority of their colleagues…

      • Saarbo 49.1.1
        1 August 2013 at 9:37 pm

        Those colleagues being Goff, King, Mallard, Cosgrove, Jones….getting the picture…

      • Saarbo 49.1.2
        1 August 2013 at 9:37 pm

        Those colleagues being Goff, King, Mallard, Cosgrove, Jones….getting the picture…

      • Colonial Viper 49.1.3
        1 August 2013 at 10:52 pm

        Absolutely McFlock, the performance of a political party is commensurate with the level of support their caucus collegues give them. In this case, Labour leads by example.

  50. Golden Teapot 50
    1 August 2013 at 5:29 pm

    This is nothing to worry about. On the day which is still a long time away you can be sure that people will vote based on fundamentals. Shearer is doing everything right and by keeping to the same game plan and by keeping consistent we’ll see him get the right result in the end.

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  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
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    4 days ago

  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
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  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
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  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
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  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
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    4 days ago

  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
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    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    4 days ago

  • Smoke And Mirrors.
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  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
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    Skeptical Science
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  • State of humanity, 2024
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  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
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    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • The case for cultural connectedness
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
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  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
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  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
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  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
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  • True Blue.
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  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
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  • $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
    New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
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  • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Judicial appointments announced
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago

  • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
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  • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago

  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
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  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
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  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
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    1 day ago

  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
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  • Government backing mussel spat project
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    2 days ago

  • Government focused on getting people into work
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
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    2 days ago

  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
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  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
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    2 days ago

  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
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    3 days ago

  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
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    3 days ago

  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
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  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
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  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
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    4 days ago

  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
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    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
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  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
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    4 days ago

  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
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    5 days ago

  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
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    5 days ago

  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
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    5 days ago

  • Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being considered
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  • New Zealand condemns Iranian strikes
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  • Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plans
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    1 week ago

  • Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand Chair
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board.   “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti.  “I have asked her to ...
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  • Roads of National Significance planning underway
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    1 week ago

  • Navigating an unstable global environment
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  • NZ welcomes Australian Governor-General
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
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    1 week ago

  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for Winter
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    1 week ago

  • NZ and the US: an ever closer partnership
    New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
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    1 week ago

  • Joint US and NZ declaration
    April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
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    1 week ago

  • NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperation
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    1 week ago

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